Energy Mix STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY MIX ECONOMICS 1. 
Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the load curve; namely, base-­‐load, mid-­‐to-­‐peak load, and ancillary. 2 Load Curves and LDC •  Annual •  Monthly •  Daily 0 1 88 175 262 349 436 523 610 697 784 871 958 1045 1132 1219 1306 1393 1480 1567 1654 1741 1828 1915 2002 2089 2176 2263 2350 2437 2524 2611 2698 2785 2872 2959 3046 3133 3220 3307 3394 3481 3568 3655 3742 3829 3916 4003 4090 4177 4264 4351 4438 4525 4612 4699 4786 4873 4960 5047 5134 5221 5308 5395 5482 5569 5656 5743 5830 5917 6004 6091 6178 6265 6352 6439 6526 6613 6700 6787 6874 6961 7048 7135 7222 7309 7396 7483 7570 7657 7744 7831 7918 8005 8092 8179 8266 8353 8440 8527 8614 8701 Luzon Demand 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Energy Mix From LDC 2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000 Raao of Base to Peak = Per Unit Base 0.5556 Per Unit mid-­‐ to peak 0.4444 Largest Unit, MW 647 % of Peak Demand % of Gwh Demand Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100% 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74% 44% Per Unit Mid-­‐ Peak Energy 0.194 26% 100% STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY MIX ECONOMICS 1. 
2. 
Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the load curve; namely, base-­‐load, mid-­‐to-­‐peak load, and ancillary. Determine technologies for each component of the load curve using basic rule of power system economics of a veracally integrated uality; namely, a) the base-­‐load component are supplied by technologies with high capex and low variable/fuel costs; and, b) mid-­‐ to peak load are supplied by technologies with low capex and high variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend themselves to cycling and on/off operaaon and control of capacity output 8 0 1 88 175 262 349 436 523 610 697 784 871 958 1045 1132 1219 1306 1393 1480 1567 1654 1741 1828 1915 2002 2089 2176 2263 2350 2437 2524 2611 2698 2785 2872 2959 3046 3133 3220 3307 3394 3481 3568 3655 3742 3829 3916 4003 4090 4177 4264 4351 4438 4525 4612 4699 4786 4873 4960 5047 5134 5221 5308 5395 5482 5569 5656 5743 5830 5917 6004 6091 6178 6265 6352 6439 6526 6613 6700 6787 6874 6961 7048 7135 7222 7309 7396 7483 7570 7657 7744 7831 7918 8005 8092 8179 8266 8353 8440 8527 8614 8701 Luzon Demand 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Technology vs. Load Curve Component Base Capacity Coal, Geothermal, Base Hydro, Must-­‐dispatched REs Mid-­‐merit Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines Peaking Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines Ancillary Capacity Hydro, Gas, Diesel Engines Energy Mix From LDC 2015 Luzon LF = 0.75 0.750 2015 Luzon Peak , MW 9,000 2015 Luzon Base, MW 5,000 Raao of Base to Peak = Per Unit Base 0.5556 Per Unit mid-­‐ to peak 0.4444 Largest Unit, MW 647 % of Peak Demand % of Gwh Demand Per Unit Total Energy 0.750 100% 56% Per Unit Base Energy 0.556 74% 44% Per Unit Mid-­‐ Peak Energy 0.194 26% 100% STEPS IN DETERMINING AND ANALYZING ENERGY MIX ECONOMICS 1. 
Using the load curve (or LDC), determine mix on the basis of the components of the load curve; namely, base-­‐load, mid-­‐to-­‐peak load, and ancillary. 2. 
Determine technologies for each component of the load curve using basic rule of power system economics of a veracally integrated uality; namely, a) the base-­‐load component are supplied by technologies with high capex and low variable/fuel costs; and, b) mid-­‐ to peak load are supplied by technologies with low capex and high variable/fuel costs. Moreover, they lend themselves to cycling and on/off operaaon and control of capacity output. 3. 
Distribute mix among the technologies using (1) & (2). Opamize mix on the basis of the following criteria/constraints: 1) 
2) 
3) 
Cost-­‐of electricity generaaon Environmental impact Security of supply a) 
b) 
c) 
Indigenous vs. imported Weather dependency Geopoliacs 16 Must-­‐dispatched REs MW installed % of Total % of Total MW Installed % o f Base % of Base % Peak Energy at 0.25 Energy at 0.40 % Base Energy at Energy at Demand CF ave CF ave Demand 0.25 CF 0.40 CF 5.56% 1.85% 2.96% 10.00% 2.50% 4.00% 10.00% 3.33% 5.33% 18.00% 4.50% 7.20% 18.75% 6.25% 10.00% 33.75% 8.44% 13.50% 30.00% 10.00% 16.00% 54.00% 13.50% 21.60% Energy Mix Peak Load, MW Largest Unit, MW 9,000 Base Capacity 5,000 56% Mid-­‐merit Capacity 3,000 Peaking Capacity 1,000 Total Demand Check Total with ancillary check Total with ancillary
+maintenance capacity (Required Installed Capacity) Year 647 MW (from Load % of peak Curve and LDC) Ancillary Capacity 2015 Approx. Capacity Factor Required Net Capacity Required Gross Capacity
+Maintenance Capacity 5,000 6,173 33% 3,000 3,508 11% 1,000 1,169 18% 1,654 1,935 100% 9,000 118% 10,654 1.00 12,786 % of Peak % of Required Demand Installed Capacity 69% 48% 73% 52% % of Gwh Demand 74% 26% Costs to Consumers of Mix •  For a uality, generaaon costs component will be the same for all if flat rate. But a Time-­‐of-­‐
Use (TOU) enables those with high Load Factor (LF) to get lower rates. The deregulated generaaon sector mirrors a TOU-­‐
based rate determinaaon for end-­‐users. Costs to Consumers of Mix Rate FIT Load Factor Energy Mix Technologies % of Peak Demand Base Capacity % of Required % of Gwh Installed Demand Capacity 69% 48% 73% 52% 74% Coal Must-­‐ Geother-­‐
dispatched mal REs 30% Base Hydro Peaking Hydro Gas Oil 18% Total Check 48% Mid-­‐merit Capacity 26% Peaking Capacity 12% 30% 10% 52% 30% 10% 100% 9% 96% Ancillary Capacity TOTAL 100% 30% 30% Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix 2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 27% 21% Energy Mix Peak Load, MW Largest Unit, MW 9,000 2015 Year 647 MW (from Load % of peak Curve and LDC) Approx. Capacity Factor Required Net Capacity 1.00 5,000 Required Gross Capacity
+Maintenance Capacity 6,173 Base Capacity 5,000 56% Mid-­‐merit Capacity 3,000 33% 3,000 3,508 Peaking Capacity 1,000 11% 1,000 1,169 Ancillary Capacity 18% 1,654 1,935 Total Demand Check 100% 9,000 Total with ancillary check 118% 10,654 Total with ancillary
+maintenance capacity (Required Installed Capacity) 12,786 % of Peak % of Required Demand Installed Capacity 69% 48% 73% 52% Energy Mix % of Peak Demand Base Capacity % of Required % of Gwh Installed Demand Capacity 69% 48% 73% 52% Mid-­‐merit Capacity Peaking Capacity 74% Technologies Must-­‐
Geother-­‐
Base Peaking Coal mal dispatched REs Hydro Hydro 30% Gas Oil 18% Total Check 48% 26% 12% 30% 10% 52% 30% 10% 100% 9% 96% Ancillary Capacity TOTAL 100% 30% 30% Based on DOE's Installed Capacity Mix 2016 39% 5% 5% 17% 21% 27% Based on Share of Gwh Demand (Energy-­‐based) 47% 2016 61% 8% 71% 27% 26% 100% 2% 29% 100%