Labour market outlook, spring 2015
SUMMARY
Ura 2015:4
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
Summary
The next few years will be characterised both by continued improvements in job
growth and more people entering the labour market. This will cause unemployment
rates to fall but at a slow pace. Among 16 to 64-year-olds, unemployment is expected
to fall from 8 per cent in 2014 to 7.5 per cent in 2016. To a great extent, those changes
in the labour market are due to people born outside Sweden, which is linked to the
fact that the number of Swedish-born 16 to 64-year-olds continue to fall. Consequently, our conclusion is that it is necessary to maintain large net immigration in the future. It is a prerequisite for being able to satisfy the future needs of the labour market
and for maintaining welfare policies.
In an international perspective, the Swedish labour market continues to be strong. In
spite of this, there is a risk of continued growth in structural unemployment. Thus,
the labour market policy challenges will continue to grow over the upcoming years.
This is linked to a large influx of job-seekers that lack second-level education. The
share of groups with considerably lower chances of finding employment will grow
steadily. This will increase the importance of employment officers being able to provide more time for each job-seeker in that situation. Further improvement of integration is the key to succeed, as the improvements so far have been insufficient.
Increasing global growth
In spite of a continued expansive monetary policy and a depressed oil price, activities
in the global economy only improved at a modest pace in 2014. Global prospects are
slowly brightening in 2015 and 2016, but improvements are slow. Global GDP growth
is estimated at just shy 3.5 per cent for 2015 and around 4 per cent for 2016. The
American economy will be the engine of the world economy. The contributions from
emerging economies remain substantial, but will be smaller than previously. Currently, things in the Eurozone are also looking up and we are expecting a more pronounced recovery than what was previously foreseen. The Swedish economy and labour market will benefit from the gradual global-level improvement.
Following a marked weakening in Q1 2015, the growth in the American economy is
expected to gradually pick up throughout the remainder of the year. Thus, there is
much to indicate that the slow-down of the American economy was only temporary.
The weakening is linked to the harsh winter weather and dock strikes on the Pacific
coast.
The American labour market will continue to improve in 2015 and 2016. Unemployment is expected to fall below 5 per cent in 2016, thereby enabling American households and businesses to act as a driver of the global economy. This will also mean that
we are getting closer to the point when the Federal Reserve increases the federal
funds rate. All in all, the American GDP is expected to rise by 2.1 per cent in 2015 and
by 3.0 per cent in 2016. This can be compared to 2.4 per cent in 2014.
The recovery in the Eurozone continues and incoming statistics indicate that the
trend is stronger than previously expected. The development in the Eurozone benefits
from a number of different factors. The continuation of the very expansive monetary
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
2
policy – primarily the extensive purchasing of bonds by the ECB – has led to increasing granting of credits and growing optimism among both households and businesses. In addition, the low oil price stimulates the economy and the weakening of the
euro has increased competitiveness for export companies. However, the situation is
still delicate and there are underlying issues, such as high indebtedness, political uncertainty, negligible inflation and very high unemployment, in many countries.
Therefore, additional reforms are necessary.
The number of people in employment in the Eurozone started growing in the beginning of 2014. This trend will continue during our forecast period. Even though unemployment has culminated, it will remain high in both 2015 and 2016. The current
reduction is mainly due to the growing number of new jobs. Unemployment is expected to fall to 10.7 per cent in 2016. This means the unemployment rates in the
Eurozone will remain high over the next few years. The composition of unemployment is also very unfavourable. Our assessment is that the GDP in the Eurozone will
grow by 1.5 per cent in 2015, compared to 0.9 per cent in 2014. For 2016, growth is
estimated to be at around 2 per cent.
The households remain the drivers of growth in Sweden
After a temporary decline in the beginning of 2015, the growth in the Swedish economy will pick up in the second half of 2015. The relatively weak GDP development in
the beginning of 2015 is a consequence of the continued slow recovery in the global
economy. Arbetsförmedlingen's employer survey of 10,000 workplaces in private
industry, as well as all municipalities and county councils, in the spring of 2015 indicate that people are expecting a stronger growth in demand for goods and services
than was recorded in previous surveys. Expectations are also clearly above historical
averages. There are also other forward-looking indicators telling us that economic
activity will pick up.
The picture of the Swedish economy that we painted in the previous forecast remains
the same in principle. This means that domestic demand will drive growth. Households will see a continued good revenue trend while their assets will remain strong.
Also, households have been unusually thrifty. This thriftiness will remain, but in 2016
we foresee households spending a bit more.
Investment activities grew during the second half of 2014, but remained more or less
unchanged between the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015. However, the weak trend during the first quarter is explained by a temporary increase in the
fourth quarter of 2014. Housing investments continued to grow apace in the first
quarter. They will continue throughout 2015 and 2016, but at a slower rate than in
2014. At the same time, investments in private industry and the public sector is reinforced – mainly in 2016.
The slow recovery of the global economy will impact Swedish exports. The reinforcement therefore will be relatively modest in 2015, but there are conditions in place for
a more distinct export growth in 2016. But imports are growing more than exports
did in both 2015 and 2016. This leads net exports contributing negatively to GDP
growth for the forecast period. After a growth of 2.5 per cent in 2014, we find that
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
3
GDP will grow by 2.5 per cent in 2015 and by 3.0 per cent in 2016, adjusted for calendar year.
Over 110,000 more employed in 2016
Progressive indicators tell us there will be a continued high demand for labour in
both 2015 and 2016. For example, Arbetsförmedlingen's employer survey in the
spring of 2015 indicates that employers will continue increasing the number of employees at fairly brisk rates over the next year or two. As the economy gradually recovers, employment rates are expected to rise. For 2015, the number of employed
(among 16-64-year-olds) is expected to grow by 50,000 people (corresponding to 1.1
per cent). In 2016 the number of people in employment is expected to rise by 61,000
people (corresponding to 1.3 per cent) which means the number of people in employment in 2016 will be close to 4.7 million. This can be compared to a job growth of
43,000 people – equivalent to 0.9 per cent – in 2014. In 2016, the relative employment rate will be 76.6 per cent. The number of employees will grow mainly in the
private service sector but in relative terms, the growth is greater in the public sector.
According to the National Accounts, the number of worked hours grew by 1.8 per cent
in 2014. The number of worked hours is expected to grow at by decent rate in both
2015 and 2016, or by 1.6 and 1.8 per cent respectively, which is a greater increase
than the expected growth of people in employment (ages 15-74). This means that average working hours is expected to increase. The productivity in the private sector has
had a relatively poor trend for some time. In 2015, GDP productivity is expected to
grow by 0.9 per cent, and in 2016, by 1.2 per cent. This can be compared to 0.7 per
cent in 2014.
Employment rates growing among the young
During the forecast period, employment rate is expected to grow for all age groups
but young people in particular are benefiting from the strong labour market. This is
because a large part of the job growth is taking place in sectors with lower requirements on education and experience. In addition, a large part of the growth in employment, particularly among the young, is attributed to temporary employment.
The number of people employed with lower education continues to grow
During the forecast period, the number of people employed with third-level education
is expected to grow the most, which is enabled by the continued rising labour supply
with that education background. The number of people employed with second-level
education is not expected to change significantly, while the number with first-level
education will continue to fall. The large number of additional job-seekers with thirdlevel education leads to more of them being recruited to second-level education jobs.
In Q1 2015, the group with first-level education only (25-64-year-olds) saw an employment rate of 60 per cent. This compares to almost 88 per cent among those with
more than two years of third-level education (25-64-year-olds) and 82 per cent
among those with second-level education (25-64-year-olds). So there is considerable
potential in raising the employment rate among those with lower-level education.
However, many of them need extensive skill training if this is to succeed.
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
4
People born outside Sweden account for almost the entire increase in employment
Almost the entire rise in the employment rate (16-64-year-olds) assessed in this forecast – 111,000 people in 2015 and 2016 – is accounted for by people born outside
Sweden. But this group represent the entire addition to both population and labour
force. The addition mainly comprises people born outside Europe. The future growth
in employment rate will be even more dependent on those born outside Sweden,
since the number of people born in Sweden is falling. We find that both the number
of people employed and the employment rate among those born outside Sweden continue to rise for the period of the forecast.
There are indications that some parts of the integration process in the labour market
have improved, in spite of the fact that we now have a larger group of immigrants,
who have been in the country only briefly, competing for jobs. But the difference in
the employment rate between, particularly, those born outside Europe and those
born in Sweden remains significant. The difference between the two groups is particularly large for women.
The labour force continues to grow
Even if the number of people of working age in the population only grew very little
over the past few years, the number of people in the labour force has grown considerably This is due to an increase in the labour participation of the population – which
partly is a consequence of a policy of stimulating supply. Arbetsförmedlingen's introduction assignment has enabled an earlier entry into the labour market for new immigrants. Immigration is expected to remain high over the next few years due to high
rates of asylum seekers and immigration of relatives to residents. This provides a
valuable addition to the labour force, which without immigration would have shrunk
– those born outside Sweden account for the entire growth of the labour force since
2008. Consequently, our conclusion is that it is necessary to maintain a large net immigration in the future.
Over the next few years, labour force is expected to continue to grow apace. In 2015,
it is expected to grow by 42,000 people, and in 2016 by 48,000 people. The labour
participation of the population is estimated at 82.7 per cent for 2016. The supply of
labour will need to continue to rise at a high rate in order to maintain a healthy and
sustainable growth in employment.
Strong growth in public sector employment rate
Swedish industry has been marked by the global recession of the past few years and
industrial production has been weak for some years. In 2014, developments were
held back, as both production and order intake fell. But in Q1 2015, industrial production had a slight positive trend. Brighter global prospects and growing global trade
benefit export-dependent countries like Sweden. In spite of some positive signs, there
are still some concerns about developments in Sweden's industrial sector. Forwardlooking indicators such as the confidence indicator from Konjunkturinstitutet (National Institute of Economic Research) and Arbetsförmedlingen's employer survey
indicate a slight weakening of expectations in the industrial sector since the end of
2014. The number of people employed in the industrial sector has fallen markedly
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
5
over the past few years. But in the past few quarters, that decline has slowed down
significantly. Even if the number of employees in the industrial sector will be lower in
2015 than in 2014, we expect some job growth in 2016.
The building boom continues. Our employer survey indicates that the level of demand
in construction companies has grown more over the past six months than was expected last autumn. Their expectations for the future are also stronger than normal.
The number of flats under construction continued to grow in Q1 2015. In addition,
the number of building permits for residences and summer houses grew throughout
all of 2014 and into 2015. Although, in spite of the building boom, employment in the
industry has not increased. One important explanation is that many construction
companies use more and more staff from employment agencies and foreign labour.
The building boom indicates that employment will continue to climb in 2015 and
2016. Our assessment is that employment will grow by 4,000 people in 2015 and the
same amount in 2016. The use of staff from employment agencies and foreign labour
will continue to hold back job growth in those years as well.
The private service sector continues to grow. Our survey indicates that expectations
among businesses for the next six months are somewhat stronger than normal. Employment grew at a decent rate in 2014 and in the beginning of 2015. During the forecast period, employment continues to grow considerably. Strong domestic demand,
particularly in household consumption, is expected to drive growth for the forecast
period. Therefore, primarily services directed at households are expected to see
strong developments, but an increase is also expected for b2b services. These employers benefit from a strong trend in the public service sector and construction, as
well as growing optimism in the industrial sector. We assess the number of people
employed in the private service sector will grow by 30,000 people in 2015 and by an
additional 32,000 people in 2016.
Job growth continues apace in the public service sector and this is also where we find
the strongest relative job growth. Arbetsförmedlingen's employer survey indicates
that employers are planning on employing more people in a one-year and two-year
perspective as well as an increase in public sector employer activities. Over our forecast period, the economic conditions of employers will not impair their opportunities
for expanding operations. Private sector employers are also planning to increase the
number of employees for the forecast period. For that reason, Arbetsförmedlingen
finds that employment will rise among both public and private sector employers in
both 2015 and 2016. However, in certain professions, the growing shortage of labour
will impede future employment growth.
Cities are growing at a faster rate, but recovery will be country-wide
Employment grew widely across the whole country in 2014 and a large number of
regions, also outside of the major cities, showed strong employment growth. Employment will continue to grow in both 2015 and 2016 in all counties. The major city
regions – led by Stockholm – are expected to see the strongest job growth even if
employment growth is expected to pick up in the other counties by 2016.
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
6
Even if employment is expected to rise throughout the country during the forecast
period, the counties of Gävleborg, Jämtland, Södermanland and Västernorrland are
the antitheses of the rest of the regions. The weak trend in those counties is primarily
explained by unfavourable economic structures. In some instances, job growth is also
impeded by falling population in the age bracket of 16-64-year-olds. The previous
pattern of stronger employment growth in regions with a more diversified economic
structure is expected to remain. But in 2016, we expect a gradual increase in operations in the industrial sector, which will benefit employment rates in other traditionally more industry-heavy regions as well.
Unemployment falls to 7.5 per cent in 2016.
Unemployment has only shifted slightly over the past few years and averaged 8.0 per
cent in 2014, corresponding to 400,000 people, from 16-64 years of age. It will continue to fall slowly in both 2015 and 2016, but the share of structurally unemployed
people will increase further. In 2015, Unemployment is expected to be 7.8 per cent,
and in 2016, 7.5 per cent. The fact that unemployment – in spite of strong job growth
– is not falling more markedly is due to the continued strong growth of the labour
force.
It is important to map unemployment, especially to describe the groups with particular difficulties in finding employment. Full-time students applying for jobs are rarely
a labour market policy issue, since many of them see their studies as their main occupation. Of the unemployed in 2014, 130,000 were part-time students actively looking
for work, corresponding to 2.6 per cent of the labour force. That figure is somewhat
down from 2013. The number of unemployed in 2014 who were not full-time students was 270,000, corresponding to 5.4 per cent of the labour force, which is unchanged from 2013.
Unemployment among people born in Sweden has fallen, and that trend continues.
On the other hand, unemployment among those born outside Sweden will only
change marginally. This is linked to the fact that the entire addition to the labour
force is contributed by people born outside Sweden, while the number of people born
in Sweden continues to fall. Unemployment is primarily falling among young people,
which is due to their benefiting from the continued strengthening of the labour market.
Fewer registered as unemployed with Arbetsförmedlingen
The number of people registered as unemployed with Arbetsförmedlingen – i.e.
openly unemployed and jobseekers in programmes with activity grants – is expected
to continue to fall, but at a slow rate. Of the unemployed, primarily those closest to
the labour market will gain employment when the labour market strengthens. The
composition of those who are registered as unemployed has changed significantly, as
the number of people far from the labour market – i.e. vulnerable groups – continues
to grow.
The wide-ranging employment growth in the country is reflected in falling unemployment numbers – the number people registered as unemployed as a share of the
register-based labour force – in most regions in both 2015 and 2016. The previously
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
7
described division, between more industry-heavy and more service-intensive labour
markets, remains, which means sustained high unemployment levels in the counties
of Gävleborg, Blekinge and Södermanland. Those counties are expected to see unemployment levels in excess of 10 per cent in Q4 2016. At the same time, we are expecting low unemployment levels to continue in the counties of Uppsala, Stockholm and
Halland. Among the major city regions, the county of Skåne is expected to have the
highest unemployment level.
Focusing on matching in 2015 and 2016
The essence of Arbetsförmedlingen's remit is to match job-seekers with the needs of
employers. In 2015 and 2016, Arbetsförmedlingen will be affected by the fact that
labour demand will primarily benefit job-seekers with second and third-level education while the number of job-seekers with lower-level education is rising. The structure of unemployment in 2015 is markedly different compared to previous economic
situations. There is a good supply of job-seekers with lower-level education or professional skills for which there is only limited demand. The number of unemployed with
difficulties finding work will thus increase during the forecast period. Consequently,
the challenges to Arbetsförmedlingen's matching process will grow.
In order to maintain the supply of demanded labour over the next few years, our work
on strengthening the position of the unemployed in the labour market will be especially important. Transitioning and mobility in the labour market must be high and it
is important to work actively, targeting the unemployed who have difficulties finding
a solution to their labour market problems. It is important to counteract structural
unemployment, i.e. the unemployed who have a level of education or skill set for
which there is low demand, irrespective of the economic situation. If we fail in this,
the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate-of-Unemployment) will increase.
Konjunkturinstitutet estimates the Swedish NAIRU at 7 per cent.
Matching difficulties have not increased from an employer perspective
Labour demand has continued to grow over the past year. Such a trend normally increases the shortage of trained and experienced labour. The shortage of labour has
also increased in the private sector, but only to a relatively limited extent. The shortage of labour is still also lower than at corresponding previous demand situations.
Even if shortages in the private sector are expected to increase during the forecast
period, there are no indications that they will have a negative impact on the economy
in 2015 and 2016.
There are probably more contributing factors to the continued limited recruitment
problems. One important factor is that labour demand is almost recovered in private
service sectors with less requirements for education. Also, demand in the private service sectors is primarily found in the three major cities, where access to labour is
good.
Another contributing factor to the labour shortage only increasing to a limited extent
is the growing number of foreign entrepreneurs, particularly in certain sectors such
as construction and transport. It has also become more common to outsource jobs to
companies in other countries, e.g. in IT and technology. There is also some influx of
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
8
labour to some professions with a shortage of skilled employees. Other explanations
may be that employers are finding it easier to reach the labour they wish to recruit,
for example through social media, and that there are still large numbers of people
applying for the available vacancies.
Growing strains on recruitment to public sector jobs
Within parts of the public sector, the recruitment situation is strained and shortages
will become more pronounced over the next few years. The shortage of skilled labour
is expected to increase gradually and employers will find it difficult to maintain services in their operations. The shortage of labour risks slowing down the overall employment growth in the sector. The shortage of skilled labour is particularly great in
professions requiring third-level education, but there is also a clear trend towards an
increasing shortage in healthcare professionals with second-level education.
The increasingly problematic recruitment situation is connected to several factors.
One important factor is the fact that many professions are seeing a structural deficit
in the number of graduates. The reason is that the number of places in appropriate
education programmes is too low and, in many instances, there are too few applicants. Another contributing factor to the increasing shortage of skilled labour is that
the generation change still affects recruitment in many regions outside the three major cities.
Shortage of labour in some industries
The shortage of labour in the private sector is expected to increase slightly by the end
of 2016. The increase is limited to certain industries. The public service sector will
continue to have recruitment problems. The shortage is expected to most apparent in
the following professions:

Healthcare providers

Teachers

IT and technology

Construction

Qualified jobs in industry

Some individual service sector professions
More and more of those registered as unemployed have a vulnerable position in the labour market
Arbetsförmedlingen has been given more extensive responsibilities through the introduction assignment and the health insurance reform. This has led to the composition of those who are registered as unemployed having changed considerable. A growing share of those who are registered with Arbetsförmedlingen belong to groups who
have more difficulties finding work than others and who therefore run the risk of
long-term unemployment. These groups include people with first-level education
only, people born outside Europe, people aged between 55 and 64, as well as people
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
9
with functional impairments leading to a reduced work capacity. These groups are
designated as vulnerable. The group with first-level education only include young
people with insufficient education. Although, young people are not generally considered being in a vulnerable position in the labour market.
It is important to stress that those who are considered to be vulnerable on average
have more difficulties finding work than other groups in the labour market, but there
are individual differences in each group which means that not everyone have difficulties finding work. The job opportunity, i.e. the share of the unemployed every month
that transition into employment, is twice as great for groups in a stronger position in
the labour market compared to those in a vulnerable group. In Q1 2015, job opportunity was rated at around 5 per cent for vulnerable groups compared to around 11
per cent for those in a stronger position in the labour market.
Rising unemployment among disadvantaged groups
In April 2015, a total of 366,000 people were registered at Arbetsförmedlingen as
unemployed. Of those, 68 per cent or 250,000 people belonged to groups considered
disadvantaged. And more than half of them have been unemployed for more than a
year. The falling number of people registered as unemployed that is expected for 2015
and 2016 will entirely come from groups with a stronger position in the labour market. At the same time, the number of disadvantaged unemployed is expected to rise
throughout these two years. The main reason is a continued influx of new immigrants
to the introduction assignment. This is a consequence of the large number of refugees, primarily from Syria, but also from other countries with political instability.
Another factor contributing to the rising number of disadvantaged unemployed people, but to a lesser extent, is the transfer of people to Arbetsförmedlingen from
Försäkringskassan (the National Insurance Agency).
Unemployment is mainly rising among men in a disadvantaged position. This is primarily due to the fact that more men than women migrate. But we are also seeing a
trend of growing unemployment among women in disadvantaged groups as well. But
unemployment is falling among both men and women with stronger positions in the
labour market.
The share of unemployed with a disadvantaged position is expected to reach 70 per
cent by the end of 2015. In 2016, the share is expected to continue to rise and exceed
75 per cent in the second half of the year. The share of disadvantaged groups is growing partly due to a continued rise in the number of unemployed in disadvantaged
groups and partly due to a fall in unemployment among other groups.
The number of unemployed born outside Europe is steadily increasing
People born outside Europe are currently the largest disadvantaged group. The number of people born outside Europe that are registered as unemployed has grown
steadily, from 40,000 people in 2008, to 130,000 people in April 2015. The sharp
rise is explained by the large influx of people to the introduction assignment after its
inception in 2010. As refugee migration is expected to be substantial in 2015 and
2016, this group will grow further over the next few years. In the past year, unemployment among people with first-level education has fallen. That decrease has now
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
10
stopped and the numbers are growing again. Overall, this group comprised 116,000
people in April 2015. Nearly half of them, or more than 50,000, have not finished
first-level education. People aged 55-64 years as well as people with functional impairments have seen unemployment fall over the past year. But the rate of decrease
has slowed down, especially for 55-64-year-olds. The number of people aged 55-64
years registered as unemployed was 55,000 in April 2015. The corresponding number
for people with functional impairments was 75,000.
Labour market outlook – Spring 2015
11
Chosen indicators
Percentage change
2012
2013
GDP, at market price
2014
Forecast
2015
2016
-0,3
1,3
2,3
2,7
3,2
GDP, working day adjusted
0,1
1,3
2,5
2,5
3,0
Hours worked, working day adjusted
0,7
0,3
1,8
1,6
1,8
-0,6
1,0
0,7
0,9
1,2
CPIF, inflation, year average
1,0
0,9
0,5
1,0
1,6
Hourly wage1
3,0
2,5
2,9
2,9
3,2
Households' actual disposable income2
3,8
2,1
2,6
2,7
2,3
Private spending
0,8
1,9
2,4
2,2
2,6
15,2
15,6
15,8
16,2
15,9
Productivity growth
Savings ratio, incl. contractual pension3
Source: SCB, Arbetsförmedlingen
123
Key figures
4
Thousands/per cent
Outcome
Change, thousands/percentage points
Forecast
Outcome
Forecast
2013
2014
2015
2016
2013
2014
2015
2016
Labour force (ages 16-64)
4 948
4 988
5 030
5 078
53
40
42
48
Employed (ages 16-64)
4 545
4 588
4 638
4 699
43
43
50
61
403
400
392
379
9
-3
-8
-13
Unemployed (ages 16-64)
Unemployment rate (ages 16-64)
8,1
8,0
7,8
7,5
0,1
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
Relative labour force numbers (ages 16-64)
82,2
82,6
82,8
82,7
0,7
0,4
0,2
-0,1
Employment levels (ages 16-64)
75,5
76,0
76,3
76,6
0,6
0,5
0,3
0,3
Registered unemployed people (ages 16-64)5
404
379
367
347
11
-25
-12
-20
Labour market policy programmes (ages 16-64)6
201
191
197
205
14
-10
6
8
4 705
4 772
4 840
4 919
48
67
68
79
Unemployed (ages 15-74)
411
411
406
395
8
0
-5
-11
Unemployment rate (ages 15-74)
8,0
7,9
7,7
7,4
0,0
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
Employed (ages 15-74)
Source: SCB, Arbetsförmedlingen
56
1
Relates to wage development statistics.
Relates to households and not-for-profit organisations.
3
Per cent of disposable income.
4
The sums are not always correct due to rounding off.
5
Arbetsförmedlingen’s operational statistics.
6
Arbetsförmedlingen’s operational statistics.
2
Arbetsförmedlingen 2015-06. Photo: Scandinav, Fotograf: Thomas Adolfsén
URA 2015:4
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