105
20
100
10
95
0
90
1
85
3
5
7
9
-10
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
150
BS
FN
100
F&B
50
TP
0
WT
0
5
0
5
10
Business Expectations
(Services Sector)
First Quarter 2016
BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS (SERVICES SECTOR)
© Department of Statistics, Ministry of Trade & Industry, Republic of Singapore
Reproducing or quoting any part of this publication is permitted, provided this
publication is accredited as the source. Please refer to the Statistics Singapore
Website Terms of Use (http://www.singstat.gov.sg/terms-of-use) for more details
on the conditions of use of this publication.
Statistical activities conducted by the Singapore Department of Statistics are
governed by the provisions of the Statistics Act (Cap. 317). The Act
guarantees the confidentiality of information collected from individuals and
companies. It spells out the legislative authority and responsibility of the
Chief Statistician. The Act is available in the Department’s Website
(www.singstat.gov.sg).
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
Business Expectations
Services Sector
FIRST QUARTER 2016
Highlights

A net weighted balance of 18% of firms in the services sector expects less favourable business
conditions for the period of Jan - Jun 2016 compared with Jul - Dec 2015. Business sentiments are
less favourable compared to the net weighted balance of -6% registered in previous quarter’s survey
(i.e. Oct 2015 - Mar 2016) and the -4% for the same period last year (i.e. Jan - Jun of 2015).
Business Outlook for the Next 6 Months
+25
+19
+17
+19
+13
+15
Apr-Sep 15
.
.
-4
Jan-Jun 15
Oct 14Mar 15
Apr-Sep 14
Jan-Jun 14
.
.
+2
.
.
Jan-Jun 13
Oct 13Mar 14
.
.
-5
Oct 12Mar 13
Jul-Dec 12
Apr-Sep 12
Oct 11Mar 12
Jan-Jun 12
-15
Jul-Dec 11
-10
Apr-Sep 11
-5
Jan-Jun 11
.
.
0
+3
+1
+1
Jul-Dec 13
+2
+7
+5
Jan-Jun 16
+6
Oct 15Mar 16
+6
+5
Apr-Sep 13
+10
+8
Jul-Dec 15
+9
Jul-Dec 14
Net Weighted Balance (%)
+20
-6
-9
-20
-18
-25
-25
-30
A weighted 10% of firms is optimistic about the business conditions for Jan - Jun 2016 while a
weighted 28% of firms foresees a slower business outlook. The majority of firms (a weighted 62%)
anticipate the level of business activity to remain the same.
Deteriorate
16%
31%
Weighted % of Firms

29%
10%
21%
26%
19%
19%
14%
Same
20%
21%
Improve
18%
15%
15%
21%
18%
13%
16%
17%
15%
55%
62%
59%
57%
59%
64%
64%
15%
17%
63%
67%
66%
67%
72%
14%
12%
10%
71%
70%
75%
71%
67%
71%
64%
71%
68%
13%
15%
35%
25%
12%
JanJun 11
12%
18%
19%
7%
JulDec 11
JanJun 12
10%
JulDec 12
JanJun 13
JulDec 13
1
14%
JanJun 14
10%
8%
JulDec 14
11%
17%
JanJun 15
JulDec 15
21%
28%
JanJun 16
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
General Business Outlook for Jan – Jun 2016 (by Industry)
All industries within the services sector expect the level of business activity to remain the same
or decline for Jan - Jun 2016 (Chart 1).
After experiencing brisk business during the year-end holidays, the accommodation and food
& beverage services industries expect less business for Jan - Jun 2016.
For the transport & storage services industry, a net weighted balance of 33% of firms expects
the business situation to deteriorate for the first half of 2016. In particular, water and air transport
firms expect lower cargo and passenger volume in the coming months.
Firms in the real estate industry
continue to expect less favourable business
conditions for Jan - Jun 2016. Real estate
developers cite the government measures
including the Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty
(ABSD) and Total Debt Servicing Ratio
(TDSR), as well as the uncertain economic
situation for the weak demand in the property
market.
Chart 1
General Business Outlook for Jan2016 - Jun 2016
Wholesale Trade
-27
Retail Trade
-2
Transport & Storage
Accommodation
Food & Beverage
.
Services
-33
-48
-27
. Information &
Communications
For the wholesale trade industry, a
net weighed balance of 27% of firms
anticipates slower business during the first
six months of 2016. Wholesalers of
petroleum and petroleum products cite
falling oil prices for their negative
sentiments. Similarly, wholesalers of
computers
and
computer
peripheral
equipment are less favourable in their
business outlook as they expect lower
demand for their products.
-16
Financial & Insurance
Real Estate
.
Business Services
(Excluding Real Estate)
-1
-29
-15
Recreation, Community &
.
Personal Services
+1
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10
0 +10
Net Weighted Balance (Per Cent)
2
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
Operating Receipts and Employment Forecast for Jan - Mar 2016 (by Industry)
A net weighted balance of 17% of firms in the services sector expects operating receipts to
decrease in the first quarter of 2016.
All industries within the services sector,
except the financial & insurance and recreation,
community & personal services industries (Chart 2)
hold negative business revenue outlook.
A net weighted balance of 55% of firms in the
transport & storage services industry expects revenue
to drop in the first quarter of 2016. In particular,
shipping lines expect lower revenue due to falling
freight rates and lower demand for their services.
Chart 2
Operating Receipts Forecast for 1st Qtr 2016
Wholesale Trade
-25
Retail Trade
-7
Transport & Storage -55
Accommodation
-47
Food & Beverage
.
Services
-25
. Information &
Communications
-21
Financial & Insurance
For the accommodation and food & beverage
services industries, turnover is expected to decline in
the first quarter of 2016 over the preceding quarter
which coincided with the year-end and festive
holidays.
On the other hand, a net weighted balance of
20% of firms in the financial & insurance services
industry expects revenue to increase in the first
quarter of 2016. Banks and finance companies expect
higher revenue due to rising interest rates.
In terms of employment, a net weighted
balance of 4% of firms in the services sector expects
to reduce hiring in the first quarter of 2016.
A net weighted balance of 14% of firms in the
accommodation services industry expects a decline in
demand for manpower as they
anticipate lower
business activity during the period of Jan – Mar 2016
after year-end holidays (Chart 3).
On the other hand, firms in the recreation,
community & personal services industry expect
higher employment level. In particular, health services
providers expect a rise in hiring activity in view of
increased demand for their services.
3
+20
Real Estate
-20
.
Business Services
(Excluding Real Estate)
-23
Recreation, Community &
.
Personal Services
+5
-60
-40
-20
0
+20
+40
Net Weighted Balance (Per Cent)
Chart 3
Employment Forecast for 1st Qtr 2016
Wholesale Trade
-13
Retail Trade
+2
Transport & Storage
Accommodation
-8
-14
Food & Beverage
.
Services
-1
. Information &
Communications
+4
Financial & Insurance
+5
Real Estate
.
Business Services
(Excluding Real Estate)
-2
-13
Recreation, Community &
.
Personal Services
+11
-20
-10
0
+10
Net Weighted Balance (Per Cent)
+20
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
Explanatory Note
Introduction
The Business Expectations Survey for the services sector is conducted quarterly (i.e. one month
before the reference quarter) by the Singapore Department of Statistics. The 1st quarter 2016 survey
was conducted from Dec 2015 to mid-Jan 2016. It is a survey aimed at obtaining the business outlook
for the immediate future of firms in the services sector.
Data Collection
The Business Expectations Survey covers some 1,500 enterprises in wholesale trade, retail trade,
transport & storage services, accommodation, food & beverage services, information &
communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate, business services (excluding
real estate) and recreation, community & personal services. Respondents are asked about their
expectations of the business situation in the next six months as well as operating receipts and
employment in the next three months. Their views are expressed in terms of directional change (i.e.,
“up”, “same” or “down”).
Enterprises’ responses are then weighted and aggregated to derive the weighted percentages for “up”,
“same” or “down” at industry and overall sectorial level for each question. Employment size is used
as the weighting variable at both the enterprise and industry level for the employment forecast. For
the general business outlook and operating receipts forecast, operating receipts and value added are
used as weights at the enterprise level and industry level respectively.
Net Weighted Balance
A "net weighted balance" is used to indicate the likely overall direction of change of a particular
activity or industry. Net weighted balance is calculated by taking the difference between the weighted
percentages of "ups" and "downs". A plus sign in the net weighted balance indicates a net upward
trend and a minus sign denotes a net downward trend.
Singapore Department of Statistics
29 Jan 2016
For enquiries, please contact
Mr Heng Shi Jie T (+65) 6835 8948 E [email protected]
Ms Irmawati Khusaini T (+65) 6332 7740 E [email protected]
4
APPENDIX
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
Chart A.1 General Business Outlook for Jan - Jun 2016 compared with Jul - Dec 2015
Industry
Net
Weighted
Balance
Weighted Percentage of Up/Same/Down
Up
TOTAL SERVICES SECTOR
-18
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
-24
12
Wholesale Trade
-27
11
Retail Trade
-2
10
-33
6
ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES
-39
5
Accommodation
-48
4
Food & Beverage Services
-27
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONS
-16
FINANCIAL & INSURANCE
-1
Banks & Finance Companies
-1
Security Dealing Activities
-24
Fund Management
-32
Insurance Companies
+13
Other Financial Services
+6
Down
62
28
52
36
51
38
24
TRANSPORT & STORAGE
Same
50
26
55
39
51
44
44
52
7
59
3
34
78
9
19
81
3
10
93
4
76
13
24
42
45
18
77
16
74
2
67
REAL ESTATE
-29
BUSINESS SERVICES (excluding Real Estate)
-15
13
RECREATION, COMMUNITY & PERSONAL SERVICES
+1
13
5
31
59
28
75
Note: “Net weighted balance” is the difference between the weighted percentages of “ups” and “downs”. A plus sign indicates a net upward trend and a minus sign denotes a net downward trend.
5
10
12
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
APPENDIX
Chart A.2 Operating Receipts Forecast for Jan - Mar 2016 compared with Oct - Dec 2015
Industry
Net
Weighted
Balance
Weighted Percentage of Up/Same/Down
Up
TOTAL SERVICES SECTOR
-17
16
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
-23
15
Wholesale Trade
-25
14
Retail Trade
-7
TRANSPORT & STORAGE
-55
ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES
-37
Accommodation
-47
Food & Beverage Services
-25
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONS
-21
FINANCIAL & INSURANCE
+20
Banks & Finance Companies
+44
Security Dealing Activities
-13
Fund Management
-16
Insurance Companies
-16
Other Financial Services
+11
Same
Down
51
33
47
38
47
39
28
37
2
35
41
57
7
49
5
44
43
11
52
53
6
36
67
27
33
54
46
13
52
2
87
21
13
42
34
37
16
50
16
5
79
5
70
REAL ESTATE
-20
BUSINESS SERVICES (excluding Real Estate)
-23
17
RECREATION, COMMUNITY & PERSONAL SERVICES
+5
18
25
43
40
69
Note: “Net weighted balance” is the difference between the weighted percentages of “ups” and “downs”. A plus sign indicates a net upward trend and a minus sign denotes a net downward trend.
6
13
Business Expectations of Services Sector, First Quarter 2016
APPENDIX
Chart A.3 Employment Forecast for Jan - Mar 2016 compared with Oct - Dec 2015
Industry
Net Weighted
Balance
Weighted Percentage of Up/Same/Down
Up
TOTAL SERVICES SECTOR
-4
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE
-9
Wholesale Trade
-13
Retail Trade
+2
TRANSPORT & STORAGE
-8
ACCOMMODATION & FOOD SERVICES
-4
Accommodation
-14
Food & Beverage Services
-1
INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONS
+4
FINANCIAL & INSURANCE
+5
Banks & Finance Companies
-3
Security Dealing Activities
0
Fund Management
+3
Insurance Companies
+19
Other Financial Services
+32
REAL ESTATE
-2
BUSINESS SERVICES (excluding Real Estate)
-13
RECREATION, COMMUNITY & PERSONAL SERVICES
+11
Same
10
Down
76
12
14
67
6
21
75
19
24
54
5
22
82
12
13
72
4
16
78
15
18
69
8
16
88
13
4
79
8
8
81
11
100
5
93
2
23
73
36
4
60
7
4
84
5
9
77
16
18
79
Note: “Net weighted balance” is the difference between the weighted percentages of “ups” and “downs”. A plus sign indicates a net upward trend and a minus sign denotes a net downward trend.
7
5