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ri hfrqrplf olwhudwxuh rq oderu pljudwlrq lq ohvv ghyhorshg frxqwulhv iroorzv wkh slrqhhulqj zrun e| Wrgdur
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gl>huhqwldo h>hfw/ lq dq ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv prgho iru uxudo wr xuedq pljudwlrq1 Pljudwlrq zloo dowhu wkh
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71 Edfnzdug orrnlqj gxdo htxloleuld/ +l1h1 UG4 ? UG5 ? Z G ? UG6 ? UG7 ,1 \rx zloo rqo| pryh li |rxu
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81 Edfnzdug dqg iruzdug orrnlqj gxdo htxloleuld1 +l1h1 UG4 ? Z G ? UG5 ? UG6 ? UG7 ,1 \rx zloo rqo|
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Li P3 @ 4/ Pl @ Pl.4 ; l è 4
Li P3 @ 3/ Pl @ 3 ; l è 4
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111111 1111111 11111111111111
111111111
111111 1111111
11
111111111
111111111111111111 11111111111111 1111111111111111
1
1
1
1
1
11111 11111 1111111 111111111111111
111111 1111111 1111111
11
111111 1111111 11111111 111111111
111111 111111 1111111 111111111
111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
1
1
1
1
1
111111111111111111111111111111111111
1
1
1
1
1
1111111111 11111 111111
11111111111111111111111111111
111111111111111111111111111111
1111111111111111111111111111111
111111111111111111111111111111111
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
11
111111111
Fdvh
5
3133
3158
3183
31:8
Fdvh Fdvh
6
7
4133
4158
Fdvh
8
4183
UG7
UG6
UG5
UG4
ZG
Fdvh
4
41:8
d
5133
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/ ò @ 4@5 / e @ 6@51
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8 zkhuh UG4 ? Z G ? UG7 zloo rffxu1 Vwdun dqg Wd|oru +4<;<> 4<<4, ?qg wkdw uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfwv
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frqglwlrqdo vwdwhphqw fdq eh pdgh= Jlyhq wkdw wkh uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfw lv vx!flhqw wr d>hfw pljudwlrq
+d A 4, wkhuh zloo eh d vxevwdqwldo udqjh/ d 5 k4> 8@6l/ zkhuh rwkhu jhqhudwlrqv*v pljudwlrq ghflvlrqv d>hfw wkh
suhvhqw jhqhudwlrq ghflvlrq wr pljudwh1 Khqfh wkh frq?jxudwlrq pd| zhoo eh rqh ri wkh fdvhv 6081
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lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh ghvljq ri srolf| wkdw d>hfwv pljudwlrq1 Uxudo wr xuedq pljudwlrq lv d vhulrxv sureohp lq
pdq| ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv dqg lq vrph fdvhv srolflhv duh lpsohphqwhg lq rughu wr dowhu pljudwlrq sdwwhuqv1
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rqo| ehfdxvh wkhuh douhdg| duh pljudqwv lq wrzq16 Vxfk dq htxloleulxp fdq eh fdoohg d pljudwlrq wuds1 Li wkh
rz ri pljudqwv duh vwrsshg/ rqo| iru rqh jhqhudwlrq/ wkh rz zloo kdow dqg wkh htxloleulxp lv vkliwhg wr qr
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D vlplodu dujxphqw fdq eh pdgh idflqj wkh vwdeoh pljudwlrq fdvhv 5 dqg 61 Lq wkhvh fdvhv d shupdqhqw
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f
ç ' • •ô 1 Ixuwkhu wkh iudfwlrq ri vnloohg wrzqvphq/ k/ lv dvvxphg wr eh •*2 dqg wkhlu zdjh lv dvvxphg wr eh grxeoh wkh xqvnloohg
zdjh khqfh K ' • •2 1 Ilqdoo| dvvxplqj wkdw/ dw wkh wlph ri pljudwlrq ghflvvlrq/ wkh pljudqwv*v h{shfwhg uhpdlqlqj olih ohqjwk lv 73
|hduv hdfk shulrg zloo eh htxlydohqw wr 53 |hduv1 D |hdu e| |hdu glvfrxqw idfwru ri o ' ôéDI lv wkhq frqvlvwhqw zlwk w ' •*2 vlqfh
•*E• n oä2f E w ' •*21
6 Qrwh wkdw wkh pljudwlrq htxloleulxp lq fdvh 8 lpsolhv wkdw wkh djhqwv dovr h{shfw d odvwlqj pljudwlrq rz1
7
7
Ixuwkhu wrslfv
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rswlplvwlf fdvh zkhuh wkh pljudqwv lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg uhdfkhv wkh dyhudjh zdjh ri lqgljhqrxv wrzqvphq ez1
Lq wkdw fdvh kdylqj |rxu xqfohv lq wrzq zloo qrw d>hfw |rxu ihholqj ri ehlqj uhodwlyho| ghsulyhg dv wkh xqfohv
gr qrw d>hfw wkh dyhudjh zdjh lq wrzq1 Kdylqj |rxu qhskhzv iroorzlqj/ krzhyhu/ zloo lqfuhdvh |rxu xwlolw| dv
|rxu qhskhzv uhgxfh wkh dyhudjh zdjh lq wrzq1 Khqfh UG4 @ UG6 ? UG5 @ UG7 1 Wklv frq?jxudwlrq doorzv
iru dq dgglwlrqdo fdvh zkhuh rqo| h{shfwdwlrqv dqg qrw klvwru| pdwwhuv17
91 Iruzdug orrnlqj gxdo htxloleuld/ +l1h1 UG4 é UG6 ? Z G ? UG5 é UG7 ,1 \rx zloo rqo| pryh li |rx
h{shfw |rxu qhskhzv wr pryh1 \rxu qhskhzv zloo rqo| pryh li wkhlu qhskhzv pryh1
Rxwfrph= Pl @ Pl.4 ; l è 4
Wkh suhvhqw zrun irfxvhv rq g|qdplfv ri pljudwlrq dqg rq krz d uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfw jhqhudwhv
d srvlwlyh h{whuqdolw|1 Rqh qdwxudo h{whqvlrq lv wr lqfrusrudwh wklv phfkdqlvp lq d vwdqgdug Kduulv0Wrgdur
prgho1 Lq wkh Kduulv0Wrgdur prgho wkh xuedq zdjh ghfuhdvhv/ zkloh wkh uxudo zdjh lqfuhdvhv/ zlwk pljudwlrq1
Wklv sodxvleoh dvvxpswlrq uhsuhvhqwv d shfxqldu| h{whuqdolw| wkurxjk zklfk rqh djhqwv ghflvlrq wr pljudwh
uhgxfhv rwkhu pljudqwv*v uhwxuq1 Dgglqj wklv qhjdwlyh h{whuqdolw| wr wkh srvlwlyh h{whuqdolw| douhdg| h{soruhg/
fdq jlyh ulvh wr lqwhulru vroxwlrqv dqg zloo dovr d>hfw wkh g|qdplfv1 Li wkh uhodwlyh grplqdqfh ri wkh wzr
frq lfwlqj h{whuqdolwlhv vkliwv iru ydu|lqj ohyhov ri pljudwlrq/ wkh v|vwhp zloo eh hvvhqwldoo| qrqolqhdu1 Dv
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dqg dovr jhqhudwh fkdrwlf g|qdplfv18
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odehov fxpxodwlyh fdxvdwlrq1 Qhwzrun h>hfwv lv dqrwkhu h{dpsoh ri phfkdqlvpv dovr jhqhudwlqj fxpxodwlyh
fdxvdwlrq19 Rq wkh uhohydqfh iru lqwhuqdo pljudwlrq/ l1h1 zlwklq d frxqwu|/ Oxfdv +4<<:/ s1 :76, vd|v= 3D
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qhwzrunv dw d sodfh ri ghvwlqdwlrq duh pruh olnho| wr fkrrvh wkdw sodfh41 Wkh qhwzrun h>hfw hqfrpsdvvhv
phfkdqlvpv vxfk dv ulvn uhgxfwlrq/ hdvlhu dffhvv wr lqirupdwlrq/ ru orzhuhg sv|fkrorjlfdo vwuhvv wkdw duh olnho|
wr eh uhgxfhg zkhq |rx kdyh idplo|2iulhqgv2yloodjhuv lq wkh flw|1 H>hfwv vxfk dv wkhvh fdq eh dqdo|}hg zlwklq
wkh suhvhqw iudphzrun1 D qhwzrun h>hfw zloo eh prvw uhohydqw lq wkh ?uvw shulrg zkhq wkh pljudqw duulyhv
lq wkh wrzq1 \rx zloo wkxv dssuhfldwh wkdw |rxu xqfohv duh durxqg zkhq |rx duulyh exw |rx duh olnho| wr eh
lqgl>huhqw dv wr zkhwkhu |rxu qhskhzv iroorz ru qrw +wkrxjk wkh| pljkw lqgxfh d plqru frvw vohhslqj lq |rxu
krxvh1, Ljqrulqj wkh uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfw/ dqg ohwwlqj UG iru qrz fdswxuh wkh vl}h ri wkh qhwzrun h>hfw/
lw iroorzv wkdw
UG4 ä UG5 ? UG6 ä UG7
Khqfh/ ghshqglqj rq wkh zdjh gl>huhqwldo wkh htxloleulxp zloo eh hlwkhu fdvh 4= vwdeoh qrq0pljudwlrq/ fdvh 5=
vwdeoh
pljudwlrq/ ru fdvh
ü 7= edfnzdug orrnlqj gxdo htxloleuld
ý
UG5 ? Z G ? UG6 1 Fdvhv 6 dqg 8 duh uxohg rxw dv UG4 ä UG5 dqg UG6 ä UG7 1
8
Frqfoxvlrq
L kdyh h{soruhg vrph frqvhtxhqfhv iru pljudwlrq g|qdplfv e| lqfoxvlrq ri uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfwv lq dq
ryhuodsslqj jhqhudwlrqv prgho1 L vkrz wkdw wkh uhodwlyh ghsulydwlrq h>hfw uhsuhvhqwv d srvlwlyh h{whuqdolw|
ehwzhhq pljudqwv dqg wkdw wkh djhqwv ghflvlrqv wr pljudwh duh vwudwhjlf frpsolphqwv1 Khqfh/ wkh pljudwlrq
zloo sduwo| eh d uhvxow ri fxpxodwlyh fdxvdwlrq dqg gxdo pljudwlrq htxloleuld pd| uhvxow1 Wkh suhvhqfh ri
fxpxodwlyh fdxvdwlrq kdv lpsolfdwlrqv iru wkh h>hfw ri srolf| phdvxuhv d>hfwlqj pljudwlrq> wkh phdvxuh qhhghg
wr vwrs d pljudwlrq rz pxvw eh vwurqjhu wkdq wkh rqh qhhghg wr vxvwdlq d qrq0pljudwlrq vlwxdwlrq1
Uhihuhqfhv
Gd|/ Ulfkdug K1 hw do1/ 3Lqvwdelolw| lq Uxudo0Xuedq Pljudwlrq/4 Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo <: +4<;:,=<730831
Gd|/ Ulfkdug K1/ Frpsoh{ hfrqrplf g|qdplfv/ Fdpeulgjh/ Pdvvdfkxvhwwv= PLW Suhvv/ 4<<71
7 Wkh
$ dqg D vljqv iroorzv zkhq doorzlqj iru wkh vhfrqg shulrg zdjh ri pljudqwv wr wdnh ydoxhv lq wkh lqwhuydo dçc Kço1 Rqo|
wkh kljkhu sduw ri wklv lqwhuydo lv uhohydqw/ krzhyhu/ dv d vhfrqg shulrg zdjh forvh wr ç qrw dowhuv wkh uhvxowv douhdg| ghulyhg1
8 Gd| hw1 do +4<;:, h{soruhv wkh srvvlelolw| ri frpsoh{ g|qdplfv lq d Kduulv0Wrgdur prgho zlwk edfnzdug orrnlqj djhqwv1 Wkh
suhvhqw dujxphqw/ edvhg rq shuihfw iruhvljkw/ lv wkxv ixqgdphqwdoo| gl>huhqw1
9 L dp judwhixo wr rqh uhihuhh iru srlqwlqj rxw wr ph erwk wkh olqndjh wr qhwzrun wkhru| dqg wkh uhohydqfh ri lpsuryhg lqfrph
ryhu wlph1
8
Kduulv/ Mrkq U1 dqg Plfkdho S1 Wrgdur/ 3Pljudwlrq/ Xqhpsor|phqw dqg Ghyhorsphqw= D wzr0vhfwru dqdo|0
vlv/4Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 93 +4<:3,= 45904751
Oxfdv/ Urehuw H1 E1/ 3Lqwhuqdo Pljudwlrq lq Ghyhorslqj Frxqwulhv/4 lq Urvhq}zhlj/ Pdun U1 dqg Rghg Vwdun
+hg1,/ Kdqgerrn ri Srsxodwlrq Hfrqrplfv/ Yroxph 4E/ Dpvwhugdp= Hovhylhu/ 4<<:/ ss1 :540<;1
Pdvvh|/ Grxjodv V1 hw do1 / 3Wkhrulhv ri Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Pljudwlrq= D Uhylhz dqg Dssudlvdo/4 Srsxodwlrq dqg
Ghyhorsphqw Uhylhz 4< +4<<6,=7640991
Vwdun/ Rghg/ 3Uxudo0wr0Xuedq Pljudwlrq lq OGF*v= D Uhodwlyh Ghsulydwlrq Dssurdfk4 Hfrqrplf Ghyhorsphqw
dqg Fxowxudo Fkdqjh 65+6, +4<;7,=7:80;91
Vwdun/ Rghg dqg Urehuw H1 E1 Oxfdv/ 3Pljudwlrq/ Uhplwwdqfhv/ dqg wkh Idplo|/4 Hfrqrplf Ghyhorsphqw dqg
Fxowxudo Fkdqjh 69+6, +4<;;,=7980;41
Vwdun/ Rghg dqg M1 Hgzdug Wd|oru/ 3Uhodwlyh Ghsulydwlrq dqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Pljudwlrq/4 Ghprjudsk| 59
+4<;<,=40471
bbb/ 3Pljudwlrq Lqfhqwlyhv/ Pljudwlrq W|shv= Wkh Uroh ri Uhodwlyh Ghsulydwlrq/4 Wkh Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo
434 +4<<4,=44960:;1
Vwdun/ Rghg dqg Vkorpr \lw}kdnl 3Oderxu Pljudwlrq dv Uhvsrqvh wr Uhodwlyh Ghsulydwlrq/4 Mrxuqdo ri Srs0
xodwlrq Hfrqrplfv 4 +4<;;,=8:0:31
Wrgdur/ Plfkdho S1/ 3D prgho ri oderxu pljudwlrq dqg xuedq xqhpsor|phqw lq ohvv ghyhorshg frxqwulhv4
Dphulfdq Hfrqrplf Uhylhz 8< +4<9<,=46;07;1
9