Arctic Paper results for the 1st half of 2012 Michał Jarczyński, CEO Michał Bartkowiak, CFO Warsaw, August 31, 2012 Disclaimer Please read the information below carefully This presentation (the ‘Presentation’) was prepared by Arctic Paper S.A. (the ‘Company’) for information purposes only for use by investors, banks and the Company’s customers as well as market analysts and under no circumstances may it be treated as a part of an invitation or offer to purchase securities, an invitation to make investments or conduct transactions regarding securities, an inducement to make purchase offers or a recommendation to conclude any transactions, in particular transactions regarding the Company's securities. The information contained in the Presentation was taken from publicly available sources which the Company believes to be reliable. However, the Company cannot guarantee its reliability or completeness, except for the information on the Company and its Group. 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This Presentation contains information on the paper industry. With the exception of information indicated as originating from a specified source, the market information referred to above has been prepared on the basis of data received from third parties who are named in this Presentation and contains estimates, assessments, corrections and opinions based on the Company's experience and knowledge of the sector in which it conducts business. Because the market information referred to above may have been partially prepared with the use of estimates, assessments, corrections and opinions and has not been verified by independent entities, to a certain extent, this information is of a subjective nature, with the exception of the information which has been indicated as information originating from third parties from a specified source. It is presumed that estimates, assessments, corrections and opinions are based on reasonable grounds and that the market information which has been prepared duly reflects the situation of the industry on the markets on which the Company conducts business. However, there is no certainty that the estimates, assessments, corrections and opinions are the most appropriate basis for drawing conclusions on the market information or that market information taken from other sources may not differ significantly from the market information contained in this Presentation. The Company would like to point out to the readers of this Presentation that the only reliable source of data on Arctic Paper's financial results, forecasts and events, as well as the Company’s indicators, is the current and periodic reports submitted by the Company in compliance with reporting requirements under Polish law. This Presentation should be read together with the 2011 consolidated and standalone annual reports as well as the consolidated report for the first half of the year 2012. Page 2 Arctic Paper S.A. Agenda • Market environment • Operating and financial results • Summary of the first half of the year 2012 Page 3 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Market environment Deliveries of fine paper Change Q2 2012 vs Q1 2012 Deliveries of paper in Europe ('000 metric tonnes) -3,8 4 000 3 500 3 429 3 408 3 226 3 192 3 148 3 068 3 083 3 250 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 813 1 654 1 788 1 636 1 700 1 699 1 567 1 561 3 250 3 127 1 550 1 469 1 699 1 658 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 3 128 1 658 1 500 Change Q2 2012 vs. Q2 2011 1 000 1 616 1 572 1 556 1 621 -0,7 1 448 1 507 1 516 1 551 1 470 500 0 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Uncoated Woodfree Papiery niepowlekane (UWF) (UWF) Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Papiery powlekane (CWF) (CWF) Coated Woodfree Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Papiery Finewysokogatunkowe paper 3 148 3 127 1 447 1 469 1 700 1 658 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2012 In Q2 2012 deliveries of fine paper in Europe were lower by -3,8% than in Q1 2012 and by -0,7% than in Q2 2011. Deliveries in the uncoated woodfree (UWF) segment were down by -2,4% compared to Q1 2012 and down by -2,5% compared to Q2 2011. In the coated wood-free (CWF) segment accordingly down by -5,2% and up by +1,5%. In Q2 2012 sales volume of Arctic Paper Group was -6.2% below Q1 2012 and +4.8% higher than in the corresponding period of 2011. In the second quarter of 2012 the number of orders received remained stable. Page 5 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Fine paper prices As at the end of the first half of the year 2012 prices of fine paper in Europe experienced a decrease compared to the prices at the end of 2011. The average prices decrease was -1.5% for UWF and -2.8% for CWF. Graphic paper prices in EUR - German market 950 900 850 800 The average prices for UWF at the end of June 2012 were slightly higher than at the end of the first quarter of 2012 (+0.6%), while for CWF slightly lower (-0.2%). 750 Changes in prices for fine paper for the German market, which illustrate trends visible on key markets and segments in which the Arctic Paper Group operates. 700 650 Source: Arctic Paper based on RISI data. The average prices invoiced by Arctic Paper in EUR for the UWF segment changed from March to June 2012 within the range of +0.4% to +1.5%, while in the CWF segment from -3.7% to +0.1%. 600 12.2008 03.2009 06.2009 09.2009 12.2009 03.2010 06.2010 09.2010 12.2010 03.2011 06.2011 09.2011 12.2011 03.2012 06.2012 UWF 80g Offset Sheets DE UWF 80g Offset Reels DE CWF 90g Sheets DE CWF 90g Reels DE Change in prices for graphic paper in EUR and GBP - selected Western Europe countries 06.2012 vs. 03.2012 06.2012 vs. 12.2011 Minimum price Average price Maximum price Minimum price Average price Maximum price UWF 1,0% 0,6% 0,3% -0,9% -1,5% -2,0% CWF -0,3% -0,2% -0,1% -2,7% -2,8% -2,9% Source: Arctic Paper based on RISI data Page 6 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Pulp prices Pulp prices (USD/tonne) As at the end of Q2 2012 pulp prices were at USD 831 per tonne for NBSK and USD 784 per tonne for BHKP. The average price for NBSK in Q2 2012 was -16.1% lower than in Q2 2011, while BHKP was down by -11.6%. In Q2 2012 average NBSK pulp price was +1.6% higher while BHKP pulp price was +10.3% higher than in Q1 2012. The average cost of pulp per tonne for AP Group in Q2 2012, expressed in PLN, was up by +7% compared to Q1 2012 and by +1% compared to Q2 2011. BHKP (USD/tonne) NBSK (USD/tonne) +1,6 (16,1) +10,3 1 007 832 845 845 699 Average Q1 2012 Page 7 Average Q2 2012 Average Q2 2011 The share of pulp costs in total costs of sales after 6 months of 2012 amounted to 47% compared to app. 49% in the first half of the previous year. Average Q2 2012 Average Q1 2012 771 Average Q2 2012 (11,6) 872 Average Q2 2011 Pulp usage for AP Group production was BHKP 60%, NBSK 18%, and other 22%. 771 Average Q2 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Exchange rates 5,00 Changes in exchange rate EUR and USD vs. PLN 4,70 EUR/PLN EUR/PLN USD/PLN 4,47 4,41 4,50 4,22 4,15 4,11 4,00 3,99 3,96 4,42 +0,7 4,26 +7,6 4,16 4,01 4,23 4,26 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 3,96 3,86 4,26 3,99 3,54 3,17 3,26 2,89 2,85 3,00 3,39 3,42 3,39 3,50 3,12 2,93 2,96 2,87 2,82 In Q2 2012 the average EUR/PLN exchange rate amounted to 4.26 and was +0.7% higher than in Q1 2012 and +7.6% higher than in Q2 2011. In Q2 2012 the average USD/PLN exchange rate amounted to 3.33 and was by +3,1% higher than in Q1 2012 and by +20.9% higher than in Q2 2011. Compared to Q2 2011, the EUR/PLN rate positevely influenced levels of sales revenue realized in Arctic Paper Kostrzyn. Compared to Q1 2012 the exchange rate was neutral considering the results. The change of USD/PLN exchange rate had a major adverse impact on pulp costs expressed in PLN, particularly compared to Q2 2011. Page 8 Average Q2 2012 USD/PLN 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/06 2,75 2,50 Average Q2 2011 +3,1 +20,9 3,22 3,33 3,33 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 2,75 Average Q2 2011 Average Q2 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Exchange rates 12,00 Changes in exchange rate EUR and USD vs SEK 10,98 10,85 11,00 EUR/SEK EUR/SEK USD/SEK +0,7 10,22 10,27 9,71 10,00 9,51 9,15 8,97 9,26 8,93 8,92 9,00 8,27 8,85 8,91 9,01 8,91 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 Average Q2 2011 Average Q2 2012 8,84 8,78 9,17 7,70 8,00 (1,1) 7,79 6,99 7,13 7,22 6,71 6,71 7,00 6,84 6,90 6,28 6,00 6,98 6,63 6,33 In Q2 2012 the average EUR/SEK exchange rate increased by +0.7% compared to Q1 2012 and was down by -1.1% compared to Q2 2011. The appreciation of SEK towards EUR has a major adverse effect on the level of revenue invoiced in EUR in Swedish mills (AP Munkedals and AP Grycksbo). In the same period the average USD/SEK exchange rate increased by +3.1% compared to Q1 2012 and by +11.1% compared to Q2 2011. The change of average exchange rate had a negative effect on profitability of Swedish mills causing the increase of pulp costs expressed in SEK. Page 9 USD/SEK 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 5,00 +3,1 6,75 6,96 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 +11,1 6,26 Average Q2 2011 6,96 Average Q2 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. Market environment Exchange rates Changes in exchange rate PLN vs. SEK Changes in exchange rate EUR vs. USD 2,80 1,60 EUR/USD PLN/SEK 2,70 1,46 1,50 1,45 1,44 1,41 1,40 2,50 2,51 2,50 1,36 1,34 1,33 2,60 1,42 1,34 1,33 2,40 1,35 1,30 1,29 1,26 2,43 2,42 2,30 2,30 2,23 2,34 2,29 2,30 2,20 1,20 2,27 2,12 1,22 2,10 2,06 2,10 2,02 1,10 EUR/USD Page 10 1,28 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 PLN/SEK (2,3) 1,31 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 30/09 30/06 31/03 31/12 2,00 (0,1) (10,9) 1,44 Average Q2 2011 1,28 2,09 2,09 Average Q2 2012 Average Q1 2012 Average Q2 2012 (8,1) 2,28 Average Q2 2011 2,09 Average Q2 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. Operating and financial results Operating and financial results Use of production capacity and sales volume Use of production capacity for all mills 120% 110% 98% 100% 97% 97% 94% 93% 95% 91% 97% 98% Q1 2012 Q2 2012 93% In Q2 2012 use of production capacity for all Group mills was 98% and 1.2 p.p. higher than in Q1 2012 and 6.6 p.p. higher than in Q2 2011. The average use of production capacity in the last 12 months was app. 95%. 90% 80% 70% 60% Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Sales volume ('000 tonnes) 250 200 -6,2% 199 182 193 191 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 203 +4,8% 191 182 191 150 100 50 In Q2 2012 the AP Group noted an increase in sales volume compared to Q2 2011 of about +4.8% and decrease of -6.2% compared to Q1 2012. Sales volume in the current quarter amounted to 191 thousand tonnes and in six months of 2012 to 394 thousand tonnes. The result in the first half of the year 2012 was better by +3.4% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. 0 Q1 2011 Page 12 Q2 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. Operating and financial results Sales revenue Total sales revenue (PLN ‘000 000) -7,1% 800 641 635 680 674 +9,5% 632 632 577 600 577 AP Group sales revenue in Q2 2012 was PLN 632 million, representing an increase of +9.5% compared to Q2 2011 and a decrease of -7.1% compared to Q1 2012. Cumulative sales revenue after six months of 2012 amounted to PLN 1,313 thousand which means an increase of +8.3% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. 400 200 0 Q1 2011 4,00 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Sales revenue per tonne of paper (PLN ‘000) 3,52 3,50 3,32 3,19 3,17 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 3,35 3,32 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 3,00 Revenue per tonne of paper sold, expressed in PLN, was PLN 3,316 in Q2 2012 which represents a decrease of -0.9% compared to the result achieved in Q1 2012 and an increase of +4.5% compared to Q2 2011. 2,50 2,00 Page 13 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Arctic Paper S.A. Operating and financial results Main items of profit and loss statement Q2 2012 vs. Q1 2012 Change % Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2011 Revenues 632 354 680 420 577 487 -7,1% Gross profit on sales (w/h D&A) 127 399 144 977 101 423 20,1% 21,3% Depreciation & Amortization -30 289 Gross profit on sales PLN'000 % of sales Q2 2012 vs. Q2 2011 Change % YTD Q2'2012 vs. YTD Q2'2011 Change % YTD Q2 2012 YTD Q2 2011 9,5% 1 312 774 1 212 119 8,3% -12,1% 25,6% 272 376 216 704 25,7% 17,6% -1 p.p. 3 p.p. 20,7% 17,9% 3 p.p. -30 424 -31 738 -0,4% -4,6% -60 712 -63 399 -4,2% 97 111 114 553 69 685 -15,2% 39,4% 211 664 153 305 38,1% % of sales 15,4% 16,8% 12,1% -1 p.p. 3 p.p. 16,1% 12,6% 3 p.p. EBITDA 38 038 53 734 16 548 -29,2% 129,9% 91 772 47 046 95,1% % of sales 6,0% 7,9% 2,9% -2 p.p. 3 p.p. 7,0% 3,9% 3 p.p. 7 749 23 311 -15 190 -66,8% n.a. 31 060 -16 353 n.a. 1,2% 3,4% -2,6% -2 p.p. 4 p.p. 2,4% -1,3% 4 p.p. EBIT % of sales 8 040 9 611 -41 647 -16,3% n.a. 17 650 -50 113 n.a. % of sales Net profit / loss 1,3% 1,4% -7,2% -0 p.p. 8 p.p. 1,3% -4,1% 5 p.p. Earnings per share [PLN] 0,15 0,17 -0,75 n.a. n.a. 0,32 -0,90 n.a. Increase of sales revenue compared to H1 2011 as a result of increase of sales in tonnes by +3.4% and of favorable exchange rates fluctuations, partucularly EUR/PLN (+7,4%). Sales profit and sales profit margin in the first half of the year higher than in the corresponding period of 2011. EBITDA (PLN 91.8 million) and EBITDA margin (7.0%) in H1 2012 nearly doubled compared to the corresponding period of 2011. Decrease of these both factors in Q2 compared to Q1 2012. H1 2012 operating profit of PLN 31.1 million compared to significant loss in operating activity in 1H 2011. Net profit in H1 2012 of PLN +17.7 million compared to loss of PLN -50.1 million in H1 2011. In Q2 net profit of PLN +8.0 million PLN compared to profit of PLN.+9.6 million in the first quarter of 2012. Page 14 Arctic Paper S.A. Summary of the first half of the year 2012 Summary of the first half of the year 2012 Arctic Paper Group Stable level of orders received and increase of sales volume and sales revenue. High level of production capacity use. Significantly better finacial results in H1 2012 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year, however, worse results compared to the first quarter of 2012. The market Poor demand for high-quality papers in Europe in Q2 2012. Stabilization of market paper prices in the second half of Q2 2012. Significantly lower market prices compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Increase of pulp prices in Q2 2012 compared to the previous quarter. Lower pulp prices in the first half of the year compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Positive influence of exchange rates fluctuations in H1 2012 on the levels of revenues realized (EUR/PLN, EUR/SEK) as well as stronger adverse impact on the level of pulp costs expressed in PLN (USD/PLN, USD/SEK, SEK/PLN). However, negative impact of currencies on Q2 2012 vs. Q1 2012. Page 16 Arctic Paper S.A. Thank you Michał Jarczyński, CEO ARCTIC PAPER GROUP Michał Bartkowiak, CFO ARCTIC PAPER GROUP Arctic Paper S.A. | Jana Henryka Dabrowskiego 334A | PL-60406 | Poznan | Poland © 2012 Arctic Paper S.A. | All rights reserved
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