doi: 10.1111/j.1475-2743.2007.00137.x Soil Use and Management Sustainable agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa: the case for a paradigm shift in land husbandry J. W. Gowing & M. Palmer School of Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK Abstract In order to tackle poverty and hunger in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) there is a strong case for a focus of effort on improving rainfed agricultural systems. The challenge is to deliver a transformation of agricultural productivity in such systems without adverse impacts on environmental goods and services. We examine the growing advocacy of ‘conservation agriculture’ (CA) as the desired approach and assess the evidence to support the assertion that it can deliver sustainable agricultural development in SSA. We examine in particular the evidence which derives from experience with ‘zero tillage sustainable agriculture’ in Brazil. We ask the question, is there a case for a paradigm shift in land husbandry? The case for a paradigm shift hangs on the premise that conventional practice promotes land degradation, while adoption of CA practice delivers a range of benefits through promoting soil ecosystem health. The guiding principle is to promote biological tillage through minimizing mechanical soil disturbance and maintaining permanent organic soil cover. We examine evidence of benefits in the context of the wider debate on low-external-input technology. We conclude that CA does not overcome constraints on low-external-input systems and will deliver the productivity gains that are required to achieve food security and poverty targets only if farmers have access to fertilizers and herbicides. We conclude also that widespread adoption of the new paradigm amongst millions of small farmers in order to achieve the ‘doubly green revolution’ in SSA is subject to the familiar constraints of knowledge transfer and success will depend upon creating innovation networks. Further, we conclude that amongst small-scale farmers partial adoption will be the norm and it is not clear that this will deliver soil health benefits claimed for full adoption of the new paradigm. Keywords: Africa, conservation agriculture, land husbandry, sustainable development Introduction Fifty years ago there were fewer than half as many people as there are today. They were not as wealthy and the pressure they inflicted on the environment was lower. The widely held view then was that global development would necessarily involve increased exploitation of environmental resources, in particular, land and water. Since then population growth and dietary change have driven up demand for food and other agricultural products and in the next 50 years, global food and feed crop demand is expected to double. The consensus view has changed; now there is greater recognition of conflict between development and environmental protection objectives and many commentators are asking: is there Correspondence: J. W. Gowing. E-mail: [email protected] Received July 2007; accepted after revision September 2007 enough land and water to deliver food security and sustainable development over the next 50 years? (Greenland et al., 1998; Rosegrant et al., 2002; Brown, 2004; CAWMA, 2007). Choices about management of land and water resources will determine to a large extent whether we reach the interlinked multiple objectives of economic and social development as articulated in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).1 The challenge to the world community on poverty and hunger in particular is encapsulated in two ambitious targets: 1 Goal 1, eradicate extreme poverty and hunger; Goal 2, achieve universal primary education; Goal 3, promote gender equality and empower women; Goal 4, reduce child mortality; Goal 5, improve maternal health; Goal 6, combat HIV ⁄ AIDS, malaria and other diseases; Goal 7, ensure environmental sustainability; Goal 8, develop a global partnership for development. ª 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation ª 2007 British Society of Soil Science 1 2 J. W. Gowing & M. Palmer • To halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day. • To halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. Recent analysis by the World Bank and ILO has shown that relative to other economic sectors, increasing agricultural productivity offers the best prospect of tackling poverty and hunger (Majid, 2004; Rosegrant et al., 2007). In order to achieve the MDGs there is a strong case for a focus of effort on improving productivity of low yield rainfed agricultural systems (CAWMA, 2007). The challenge therefore is to develop technologies and practices that deliver improved agricultural productivity in such systems without adverse impacts on environmental goods and services. The Green Revolution brought substantial productivity increases over the last quarter of the 20th century through developing and promoting packages of external inputs (seed + fertilizer + pesticide). It has been argued that a second transformation of agriculture is now required that is ‘doubly green’ (Conway, 1997) in that it should both protect the environment and boost output. The discussion presented here should be seen in the context of this debate with a particular focus on land husbandry. A general critique of the notion of a doubly green revolution (Blackman, 2000) identified obstacles to the desired transformation which will entail convincing millions of farmers to adopt new practices. These obstacles include a policy environment which favours input-intensive agriculture and the fact that alternative environmentally friendly technologies involve high set-up costs. Set against this gloomy prognosis, there is a body of empirical evidence which suggests that widespread adoption and innovation of alternative sustainable technologies can and does occur. We will examine in particular the evidence which derives from experience with ‘zero tillage (ZT) sustainable agriculture’ in Brazil. The target for our discussion will be sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where essentially the same system is being actively promoted by FAO as ‘conservation agriculture’ (International Institute for Rural Reconstruction & African Conservation Tillage Network, 2005). We focus on SSA because it was largely untouched by the original Green Revolution and is lagging behind other regions in progress towards achieving the MDGs. At the midway point between their adoption in 2000 and the 2015 target date SSA is not on track to achieve any of the MDGs (United Nations, 2007). The number of extremely poor people has levelled off, but does not show significant decline. The number of food insecure people continues to rise. Faced with high population growth, in order to achieve food security, the current rate of increase in food production must be doubled. These are very substantial challenges and we need to consider the compatibility of short- to medium-term aims with a longterm sustainability agenda. What is conservation agriculture? Conservation agriculture (CA) is described by FAO (http:// www.fao.org/ag/ca) as a concept for resource-saving agricultural crop production which is based on enhancing natural biological processes above and below ground. CA is characterized by: • Minimum mechanical soil disturbance • Permanent organic soil cover • Diversified crop rotations This represents a new paradigm in land husbandry which embraces but is not limited to adoption of conservation tillage. CA aims to maintain a permanent or semi-permanent organic soil cover which can be either a growing crop or dead mulch. Its function is to protect the soil physically from sun, rain and wind and to provide a substrate for the soil biota. Mechanical tillage incorporates and buries biomass and at the same time disturbs the natural soil biological processes. Therefore, minimum tillage and direct seeding are important elements of the concept which derives from experience in Brazil with so-called ‘ZT sustainable agriculture’. Zero tillage is an important component of CA but farmers who have adopted ZT are not necessarily practising CA. Conservation tillage embraces ZT within a wider set of practices that aim to leave crop residues on the surface. Thus ZT is related to and may be a transition step towards CA, but it is not the same thing. Direct seeding involves seeding ⁄ planting without preparing a seedbed and is also an important component of CA, but the term also applies to the use of mechanical implements which combine primary and secondary tillage with seeding in a single operation. Finally, it should be noted that CA is not the same as organic farming (ecological agriculture) although both aim to promote natural soil processes. An important difference is that CA does not preclude the use of chemical inputs, in particular fertilizers and herbicides, but they are not allowed in organic systems. The global extent of CA is reviewed by Derpsch (2005). There has been widespread adoption in large-scale mechanized farming systems in drylands of the United States and Australia, but for our context the most notable success story for CA is its widespread adoption in Brazil. Bolliger et al. (2006) in a comprehensive review of what they describe as the ‘zero-till revolution’ report that the system has spread from less than 1000 ha in 1973 ⁄ 4 to cover 22 million ha by 2003 ⁄ 4 and now represents 45% of the total cultivated area in Brazil. There is also evidence of CA adoption among small-scale farmers in the rice–wheat farming system of the Indo-Gangetic plains in Asia (Hobbs & Gupta, 2002). Lal (2007) concludes that adoption is practically nil amongst resource-poor small-scale farmers in SSA, but there is evidence of pockets of adoption; Ekboir et al. (2002) reported 100 000 adopters in Ghana, and Baudron (2005) reported a 10% adoption rate amongst smallholders in Zambia. ª 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation ª 2007 British Society of Soil Science, Soil Use and Management The case for a paradigm shift in land husbandry 3 Why does CA represent a new paradigm? Conservation agriculture represents a significantly different approach to land husbandry because it involves adoption of biological tillage principles. Conventional agriculture involves mechanical tillage which aims to incorporate crop residues, control weeds, alleviate soil compaction and prepare a seedbed. However, this often has detrimental effects on the soil leading to loss of soil organic matter (SOM), reduced fertility, reduced rainfall infiltration and increased erosion. Conservation tillage practices were developed to target in particular the issue of erosion, through reducing tillage effort and retaining at least 30% soil cover by mulching with crop residues. This in itself involves a change of practice on the part of the farmer, but adoption of CA requires a more radical shift in thinking – a new paradigm. Conservation agriculture starts from the principle that soil disturbance through mechanical tillage including hand power, animal power and tractor power is detrimental. Soil degradation is seen as a problem characterized by loss of organic matter content and soil biota, collapse of porosity, soil capping and compaction. Porous and well-structured soil conditions are seen as critical to maximizing crop productivity (Shaxson & Barber, 2003). Loss of soil porosity results in (i) unacceptable run-off of rainwater leading to early onset of drought and accelerated erosion, (ii) hindrances to optimum functioning of plant roots and (iii) restrictions to effective functioning of soil biota in nutrient cycling. The primary cause is regarded as mechanical tillage. The guiding principle therefore is to minimize soil disturbance and to rely on biological tillage within a healthy soil ecosystem. Soil life plays a major role in many natural processes that determine nutrient and water availability for agricultural productivity. A healthy soil ecosystem (Bot & Benites, 2001, 2005) will: • Decompose organic matter into humus; • Retain nitrogen and other plant nutrients; • Increase soil aggregate stability; • Increase soil porosity; • Protect roots from diseases and parasites; • Make available nutrients to the plant; • Produce hormones that help plants grow. The living part of SOM includes a wide variety of microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, fungi, protozoa and algae. It also includes plant roots, insects and earthworms. Micro-organisms, earthworms and insects help break down crop residues and manures by ingesting them and mixing them with the minerals in the soil, and in the process recycling energy and plant nutrients. Plant roots, fungal hyphae and sticky exudates from earthworms and micro-organisms bind soil particles into water-stable aggregates, reducing erosion and increasing porosity (Tisdall & Oades, 1982). Shallow-dwelling earthworms create numerous channels throughout the topsoil, which increases overall porosity, while large vertical channels created by deep-burrowing earthworms improve soil structure in subsoil. The required shift in thinking therefore is to manage land in a way that promotes soil ecosystem health. What is the evidence-base for promoting CA? The direct benefits of CA adoption in Brazil are said to include sustainable high yield levels, reduced soil erosion and reduced costs (lower net inputs of fertilizer, fuel and labour). They are widely reported and provide a reasonable explanation of widespread adoption, but it has been hard to find evidence to substantiate them in accessible peer-reviewed literature. However, Bolliger et al. (2006) recently published a detailed review of the evidence accumulated over several decades on CA innovation in Brazil. Empirical evidence of the benefits of CA from SSA is limited. Lal (1998) reports long-term trials in Nigeria with ZT rather than CA systems, although these were research station experiments rather than on-farm trials. He found that ZT slightly outperformed conventional tillage in most seasons, but soil chemical and physical quality declined under continuous maize cultivation regardless of the tillage system. Rockstrom et al. (2007) reports CA trials in Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Zimbabwe that have generated yield improvements in the range of 20–120% in smallholder rainfed agriculture. However, it should be noted that the so-called CA systems adopted in these trials failed to maintain permanent organic soil cover (J. Rockstrom, personal communication) and also included limited use of chemical fertilizer. In the case of rice–wheat systems in South Asia, Hobbs (2007) provides a better substantiated range of benefits, which include reduced production costs (fuel and labour), increased yield and reduced pest and disease problems. He reports that CA leads to significantly improved physical and chemical properties of soil and that biotic diversity in the soil is increased. This supports the argument that CA creates a more healthy soil and enables more efficient use of natural resources. Documented evidence on the issue of soil health is more widely available (though not from SSA). CA practices have been shown to produce higher surface SOM content (Roldan et al., 2003; Alvear et al., 2005; Diekow et al., 2005; Madari et al., 2005). Bolliger et al. (2006) report average-enhanced SOM accumulation rates of 0.4–1.7 t ha)1 year)1 under ZT systems in comparison with conventional tillage. Increased ground cover is associated with an increase in biodiversity both above ground and in the soil (Kendall et al., 1995; Jaipal et al., 2002). Reduced tillage has been shown to increase soil fauna (Karlen et al., 1994; Buckerfield & Webster, 1996; Clapperton, 2003; Birkas et al., 2004; Rodriguez et al., 2006). However, there is also evidence that these effects may be exaggerated by increased stratification in low ⁄ no till systems. Peigne et al. (2007) reports that conservation tillage leads to ª 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation ª 2007 British Society of Soil Science, Soil Use and Management 4 J. W. Gowing & M. Palmer increased soil organic carbon (SOC) at 0–5 cm depth but there is no significant increase in the overall mass of SOC or soil microbial biomass in the whole topsoil layer (0–30 cm). There is still some controversy as to the true effects of ZT on SOC, and in particular claims about carbon sequestration potential. Farage et al. (2007) modelled dryland farming systems in Nigeria and Sudan and showed rates of carbon sequestration in the range 0.08–0.17 t ha)1 year)1. However, this depends upon the input of organic matter, which is acknowledged to be a serious constraint in SSA because of competing demands on crop residues as fodder and animal manure as fuel (Lal, 2004). Ball et al. (1998) concluded that additional carbon fixation by storage of SOM and oxidation of atmospheric methane was very limited under reduced tillage and likely to be only a short-term effect. Problems of reporting arise firstly due to increased SOM stratification under ZT, and failure to take sufficient notice of differences in depth distribution with tilled systems. Secondly, it is difficult to separate the effects of reduced tillage from those of increased biomass production and retention under ZT systems, and hence the desirability of ZT as opposed to increasing productivity of conventional systems through fertilizer use increase and greater biomass return is difficult to evaluate. Ringius (2002) considers the opportunities and challenges for soil carbon sequestration in Africa and points out that under the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto protocol, forest planting would be eligible for credit and therefore attract investment from foreign governments towards their own emission reduction obligation, but soil carbon sequestration was not included in the scheme. For SOC restoration to be considered as a carbon sink and hence attract investment in a similar way to forest management, further research is required to assess the genuine potential and cost justification. Does Brazilian experience of CA represent a case for adopting the new paradigm in SSA? To answer this question, we can examine CA in the context of the wider debate on ‘low-external-input technology (LEIT)’ (Tripp, 2006) or ‘resource-conserving agriculture’ (Pretty et al., 2006). The test is that adoption of the new paradigm in SSA should deliver poverty alleviation and food security benefits. So-called ‘bright spots’ are examples of interventions which have successfully reversed the continuing downward spiral of poverty, and which reveal positive impacts on land and water resources. Pretty et al. (2006) gathered evidence from 286 ‘bright spots’ in 57 poor countries. These projects made use of a variety of packages of resource-conserving technologies and practices, including: • Integrated nutrient management • Conservation tillage • Agroforestry • Water harvesting • Livestock integration • Integrated pest management This was a purposive sample of ‘best practice’ which found that the mean relative yield increase was 79% across a very wide range of crops and systems. For the farm system categories most relevant to our discussion (smallholder rainfed humid, smallholder rainfed highland, smallholder rainfed dry ⁄ cold) and for maize, millet, sorghum, potatoes and legumes across all systems, mean yield increase exceeded 100%. But will this be enough? CA is being promoted for small-scale semi-subsistence farmers in SSA as a resourceconserving practice, but the evidence suggests that food security benefits are open to doubt. Pretty et al. (2006) conclude that it is uncertain whether progress is sufficient to meet future food needs in view of continued population growth, urbanization and dietary transition to meat-rich diets. A review of the research conducted in recent years on LEITs by Graves et al. (2004) is also revealing in that it raises doubts about their sustainability. They ask the question, ‘can low-external-input agriculture meet future food security needs while protecting the environment’? They echo the concern about the potential productivity of such systems in which the constraint is shown to be maintenance of soil fertility and SOM. In any low-input system, the alternative to mineral fertilizer is ‘biomass transfer’ in the form of animal manure, or direct input of cut plant material (which may be composted). The system, in effect, involves ‘nutrient mining’ from the soil where the biomass is produced. The quantity of biomass available to small farmers is commonly insufficient because of limited land and ⁄ or limited labour. They conclude that low-external-input technologies appear to have limited potential to increase food production for the target group of resource-poor farmers. We are not aware that any evidence has been presented which shows that this constraint in low-input systems can be overcome by adoption of CA principles. Turning to the poverty-alleviation objective, a recent analysis of low-input technological interventions, by Tripp (2006) paints a negative picture of progress made, and questions some of the claims made about their potential. He concludes that, contrary to the belief that low-input techniques have greatest benefit for resource-poor farmers, patterns of uptake do not differ significantly from Green Revolution technology; it is generally the farmers who are better resourced with access to markets who invest in any new technology. The ‘small farmers’ reported to have adopted CA in Brazil are very different from their counterparts in SSA. Smallholders in Brazil are defined as those farming up to 50 ha (Bolliger et al., 2006) and land husbandry operations are largely mechanized, often with animal power. Tripp (2006) also disputes the idea that there is evidence for spontaneous farmerto-farmer diffusion of technology, often seen as integral to the ultimate success of participatory agro-ecological research ª 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation ª 2007 British Society of Soil Science, Soil Use and Management The case for a paradigm shift in land husbandry 5 methods, arguing that a much more clear definition of exactly what is needed (in terms of policy, replication, extension, new organizations, etc.) than a general reference to ‘scaling up’ is required to achieve success on a meaningful scale. This issue is examined further considering the evidence from Brazil below. Can Brazilian experience of CA promotion be replicated in SSA? We can again learn from the evaluation of evidence from ‘bright spots’. Noble et al. (2006) examined whether there are key factors that are fundamental to success, and whether these can be developed into guidelines that would enhance up-scaling and increase food security and household incomes. Through a consultative process 10 possible drivers were identified: Individually based Drivers: Leadership, aspiration for change. Socially based Drivers: Social capital, participatory approach. Technically based Drivers: Innovation and appropriate technologies, quick and tangible benefits, low risk of failure. Externally based Drivers: Supportive policy, property rights, market opportunities. Penning de Vries (2005) examined community-based ‘bright spots’ in African agriculture, but it is individual-based ‘bright spots’ that are most relevant to our discussion of land husbandry interventions. For these the key factors influencing adoption were found to be: • quick and tangible outcomes • a participatory approach in implementing the technology • strong leadership by the individual or group adopting the technology • supportive policy • markets With the exception of the reference to ‘markets’, which is becoming common in the discourse on agricultural development in SSA, there is a remarkable similarity to the list developed by Hudson (1991) in his assessment of the reasons for adoption or non-adoption of soil conservation practices. There are cases of what could be termed spontaneously driven ‘bright spots’ that grew from within, without incentives or external support. However, in the majority of cases the development of the documented ‘bright spot’ was contingent on an external priming agent which facilitated progress through financial and non-financial contributions. We must examine the implications of this evidence for future expansion and up-scaling of knowledge-intensive innovations that characterize CA. Ekboir (2003) cites the importance of ‘innovation networks’ to the spread of CA in Brazil, and particularly highlights the importance of agrochemical companies as agents with sufficient coverage and resources to promote developed technologies. This, he argues, is the key difference between its widespread adoption in Brazil and its minimal success in other countries. Evidence of adoption in SSA, e.g. in Ghana and Zambia, appears to confirm the importance of such support networks. Ekboir et al. (2002) in their study of CA adoption in Ghana identified the active markets for agricultural services and the important role of agrochemical dealers. Baudron (2005), in his study of CA adoption in Zambia, emphasizes the importance of making input packages available to farmers. Conclusion The case for a paradigm shift in land husbandry hangs on the premise that conventional practice promotes land degradation while adoption of CA practice delivers a range of benefits through promoting soil ecosystem health. Does it therefore deliver the doubly green revolution that will lead to sustainable agricultural development in SSA? Accumulated evidence shows that if the conditions are right then CA does deliver benefits sufficient to promote its adoption amongst farmers. Substantiated benefits include reduced production costs, improved soil conditions and reduced erosion. There has been widespread adoption in large-scale mechanized farming systems in drylands of the United States and Australia, but more relevant to our discussion is the evidence which derives from experience with ‘ZT sustainable agriculture’ in Brazil. We have examined CA in the context of the wider debate on LEIT. We have examined the subsidiary propositions that: • conservation agriculture can deliver the productivity gains that are required to achieve the MDG food security target and that advocacy of CA is compatible with the MDG poverty target; • widespread adoption of the new paradigm amongst millions of small farmers in order to achieve the ‘doubly green revolution’ in SSA is achievable. In considering the first proposition, the available evidence suggests that LEITs can deliver yield improvements in the range of 20–120% in smallholder rainfed agriculture compared with ‘unimproved’ traditional systems. At the optimistic end of this range, this will deliver doubling of production compared with the baseline, which equates to a growth rate of 3% per annum over 25 years. This is an improvement over past agricultural growth performance in SSA, but is not sufficient to achieve the MDG food security target. Lowexternal-input techniques, in general, have limited potential to deliver a sustainable increase in food production for the target group of resource-poor farmers. Such systems depend upon importing biomass to maintain fertility and, in effect, involve ‘nutrient mining’ from the soil where the biomass is produced but the quantity of biomass available to small farmers is insufficient because of limited land and ⁄ or labour. ª 2007 The Authors. Journal compilation ª 2007 British Society of Soil Science, Soil Use and Management 6 J. W. Gowing & M. Palmer We see no evidence that CA systems overcome these constraints without external inputs. In considering the second proposition, which concerns dissemination, there is no evidence that the pattern of uptake of LEITs differs significantly from Green Revolution technology. There are cases of what could be termed as spontaneously driven ‘bright spots’ that occurred, without incentives or external support; however, in the majority of cases the development of the documented ‘bright spot’ was contingent on an external priming agent, which facilitated progress through financial and non-financial contributions. We see no evidence that CA systems are different in this respect. It is clear that the key to the widespread adoption of CA in Brazil has been the success of ‘innovation networks’ and in particular the presence of agrochemical companies as agents with sufficient coverage and resources to promote developed technologies. Where pockets of CA adoption exist in SSA, most notably in Ghana and Zambia, the same condition applies. There is a very limited evidence base in SSA, with documented evidence of the benefits of a paradigm shift coming mainly from Brazil. Small farmers who have adopted CA in Brazil appear much better resourced than the target group in SSA. Most importantly they generally have good access to markets for inputs and outputs. Nevertheless, it should be noted that the ‘model’ systems developed by agricultural scientists in Brazil have not proved suited to the circumstances of small farmers and farmers have frequently adapted technologies to suit their capabilities. Assessing the impacts of these ‘imperfect’ systems may well prove the key to sustainable intensification of smallholder agriculture in SSA. A particularly contentious issue has been the reliance on herbicides, which represent 11–12% of smallholder production costs on CA land as opposed to 2–5% under conventional systems. A 17% increase in smallholder herbicide use is observed with ZT systems in Brazil compared with conventionally cultivated land (Bolliger et al., 2006). It is apparent that many small-scale farmers in Brazil struggle with weed control when their access to herbicides is limited and they often resort to tillage as a solution. The concern about weed control is echoed by Rockstrom et al. (2007) who suggests that for resource-poor farm households in SSA the use of herbicides is not an option. He speculates that the weed problem ‘will fall below that of the original farming system after several years’, but evidence from Brazil does not support this optimism. Further confirmation of the critical nature of the weed control problem can be obtained from Peigne et al. (2007) who conclude that in organic farming systems (i.e. without use of herbicides) ZT tends to increase weed pressure to a critical level where crop production could be compromised. The concern extends beyond the question of weed control to embrace also the issue of fertilizers. The problem of securing sufficient biomass for soil cover and for sustaining adequate fertility will remain a key issue in SSA. The use of mineral fertilizers, assuming they are available, would be compatible with a CA system and evidence suggests a pragmatic approach may be appropriate. A third important proposition therefore needs to be properly tested in examining the case for adopting a new paradigm for land husbandry. Given that partial adoption of CA principles appears to be the norm amongst small-scale, resource-poor farmers, does it deliver comparable soil health benefits? What level of mechanical tillage for weed control is permissible? What level of mineral fertilizer input is acceptable? We agree with the conclusion of Bolliger et al. (2006) that perhaps the real lessons are to be learnt from the adaptations made by farmers. 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