Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
DOI 10.1007/s12237-014-9797-2
Tropical Cyclone Impacts on Coastal Regions: the Case
of the Yucatán and the Baja California Peninsulas, Mexico
Luis M. Farfán & Eurico J. D’Sa & Kam-biu Liu &
Victor H. Rivera-Monroy
Received: 10 May 2012 / Revised: 27 February 2014 / Accepted: 2 March 2014 / Published online: 16 April 2014
# Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation 2014
Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are large-scale natural disturbances that generate strong winds and heavy rainfall,
impacting coastal and inland environments. TCs also influence
biogeochemical and hydrological cycles controlling aquatic primary productivity in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystems.
We assessed TC landfall activity and identified sites along the
Mexican east and west coasts with high frequency in the period
1970–2010 and evaluated TCs with significant precipitation.
Changes in chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations before and after
storm impacts were estimated using remotely sensed ocean
color. There were 1,065 named TCs with a wide diversity in
tracks. Three states with the highest number of landfalls were
identified: Baja California Sur and Sinaloa on the west coast and
Quintana Roo on the east coast. While a relative increase in Chla values following TC landfalls in the Baja California and
Yucatán Peninsula regions appeared to be strongly linked to
TC strength, the intensity of precipitation, the spatial scales of
the two peninsulas, and the relative movement of TCs appeared
to have contributed to Chl-a variability. Satellite estimates of
Chl-a in the nearshore coastal waters following TC passage were
likely enhanced by coastal morphology and water discharge
along with constituents such as suspended particulate, colored
dissolved organic matter and nutrients from rivers, tributaries,
and groundwater.
Keywords Tropical cyclones . Chlorophyll-a . Baja
California Peninsula . Yucatán Peninsula . Mexico
Introduction
L. M. Farfán (*)
Unidad La Paz, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación
Superior de Ensenada, B.C., Miraflores #334, La Paz, Baja
California Sur, Mexico
e-mail: [email protected]
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are disturbances that develop at low
latitudes and within an atmospheric environment favorable for
the intensification of weakly organized circulations (e.g., Kepert
2010). In the northern hemisphere, TCs that develop in the
Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans impact populated regions
in Central and North America (Fig. 1a). Most TC life cycles last
from several days to a few weeks, and initially, they tend to
develop over the open ocean. When TC paths are located within
a few hundred kilometers from the coast, they generally provide
periods with enhanced moisture, convective clouds, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. The most damaging events are associated
with large and intense circulations that make landfall from a
matter of several hours to a few days, thus directly impacting
coastal and inland ecosystems. In particular, stationary or slowmoving TCs can cause outbreaks of heavy rainfall over the same
area and, therefore, significant flooding (Chen 1995).
Mexico has a coastline of 12,122 km (Table 1) that often
experiences landfall of TCs originating from both the Atlantic
and the eastern Pacific basins (Jáuregui 2003). This spatial
pattern is unique in tropical and subtropical latitudes since the
(eastern Pacific) Atlantic TCs solely impact the (western)
eastern coast of Mexico. Between 1951 and 2000, 9 % of
the Atlantic hurricanes1 made landfall in Mexico’s east coast
while 18 % of all hurricanes in the eastern Pacific made
landfall on the west coast (Jáuregui 2003). Among other
E. J. D’Sa : K.<b. Liu : V. H. Rivera-Monroy
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, School of the
Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, 1002Y Energy,
Coast, and Environment Building, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
1
The term hurricane refers to a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained
winds above 33 m s−1, tropical storm to winds from 17 to 33 m s−1, and
tropical depression to winds below 17 m s−1. According to the SaffirSimpson scale, hurricanes are classified into five categories.
Communicated by Iris C. Anderson
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
1389
Fig. 1 a Tropical cyclone tracks
in the Atlantic and eastern North
Pacific basins from the 1970–
2010 seasons. b Mexico’s
topography; terrain elevations (m)
are shaded and intervals indicated
by the vertical bar (0–3000 m).
Dot symbols individual location
of 171 landfall sites during the
period. Plus signs symbols 30
tropical cyclones arriving with
major-hurricane intensity. Circled
numbers represent states with the
top ten number of landfalls
(see Table 1 for details)
causes, the higher incidence on the Pacific coastline might be
due to a longer coastline delineating the country’s periphery
coupled with a more limited geographical extent of the eastern
Pacific producing the most TCs per unit area of any worldwide basin (McBride 1995; Blake et al. 2009). TCs in this
region develop in an area bounded by 10–20°N and 95–
120°W (Allard 1984; Romero-Vadillo et al. 2007) and are
distributed within 2,500 km from the southern coast of
Mexico.
Ocean color satellite data from NASA’s Sea-viewing Wide
Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Moderate Resolution
Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors have been used
to study TC impacts on water column primary productivity as
indicated by changes in phytoplankton biomass or
chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in coastal and oceanic
waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the United States east coast
(Davis and Yan 2004; Babin et al. 2004; Walker et al. 2005;
Lohrenz et al. 2008; Hanshaw et al. 2008). Strong winds
associated with TC passage can mix surface waters, deepen
the mixed layer, and inject cold subsurface waters and nutrients into the surface layer from vertical mixing, resulting in
cold wakes and phytoplankton blooms (Black and Dickey
2008; Gierach and Subramanyam 2008). In addition, rainfall,
winds, propagating coastally trapped waves, and storm surges
resulting from TCs passages have major impacts on the concentrations of seawater constituents such as suspended sediments, colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and phytoplankton biomass (Lohrenz et al. 2008; Acker et al. 2009;
Zamudio et al. 2010; D’Sa et al. 2011). It is known that nonchlorophyllous constituents can interfere with the standard
ocean color algorithms especially in coastal waters, and thus
the information processed using these algorithms must be
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Table 1 Number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and major hurricanes (MH) making landfall in
Mexican states during the period
1970–2010, including coastline
length per state and total number
of rain-gauge stations used in the
precipitation analysis
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
Rank
State
Number of TCs (MH)
Coast length (km)
Number of stations
1
2
3
4
5
Baja California Sur
Sinaloa
Quintana Roo
Tamaulipas
Veracruz
36 (2)
29 (4)
20 (5)
14 (3)
13 (1)
2,131
622
1,176
433
1,720
154
155
59
197
347
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Total
Sonora
Guerrero
Oaxaca
Michoacán
Colima
Jalisco
Baja California
Chiapas
Nayarit
Yucatán
Tabasco
Campeche
10
9
9
8
6
6
3
2
2 (1)
2 (1)
1
1
171 (17)
1,209
522
568
228
142
351
1,493
266
296
340
200
425
12,122
284
235
351
233
54
268
137
288
74
89
80
82
3,087
used with caution (Acker et al. 2009). Yet, satellites provide
convenient and useful data to assess changes in coastal net
primary production and phytoplankton distribution when conditions are not suitable by other means, especially after TC
passage. The increases in Chl-a have critical implications on
coastal productivity such as increased absorption of carbon
dioxide through photosynthesis (Davis and Yan 2004) and
possible cascading effects on higher trophic levels in the
regions impacted by TCs.
The objectives of this study were to (1) determine the
landfall activity along the Mexican east and west coasts using
a historical dataset for the last four decades (1970–2010), (2)
identify specific sites along the coastline with the most frequent and intense impacts, and (3) evaluate changes in Chl-a
concentration, a proxy of primary productivity, in four case
studies representing recent TC events associated with relatively large precipitation in the coastal regions of the Yucatán and
Baja California Peninsulas. We hypothesize that in addition to
TC strength, precipitation intensity and TC movement relative
to the topography of the two peninsulas can also significantly
influence Chl-a variability in the two regions. We thus analyzed the biological response (i.e., Chl-a concentration and its
spatial distribution) of four representative TCs, two each along
the east (Isidore in 2002 and Stan in 2005) and west (Juliette in
2001 and Jimena in 2009) coasts that made landfall with
variable intensities. These TCs were selected since they were
among the top ten events with large precipitation that occurred
during the SeaWiFS satellite operational period (1997–2010),
allowing for an assessment of the biological response to TCs.
Materials and Methods
Based on historical records from the United States National
Hurricane Center (NHC), we identified spatial and temporal
patterns of TC activity during the period 1970–2010. The
NHC best-track database for the Atlantic and eastern Pacific
basins provided continuous representation of position and
intensity during the entire TC life cycles (Rappaport et al.
2009; http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat). Because of
limitations associated with in situ observations, imagery
from geostationary satellites has been the primary source for
TC monitoring (Velden et al. 2006). Data from the NHC
database is used to determine spatial and temporal landfall
frequency and intensity in the coastal areas of the Gulf of
Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and eastern Pacific. In our analysis,
we define TC landfall as the passage of the circulation center
close to the coast.
Precipitation data from a network of rain gauges distributed
over 17 coastal states were used to estimate the accumulation
over a 3-day period around TC landfall sites and to evaluate
the proportion of this precipitation relative to the annual
average rainfall for the period 1951–2010 (Table 1). The
Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN; Meteorological
National Service), the official weather agency in Mexico,
maintains this network. More than 3,000 stations were available to determine daily rates and total rainfall during each
landfall event. Rainfall was computed over a period of three
consecutive days (i.e., prior to landfall, landfall, and after
landfall). Terrain elevations of the selected meteorological
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
stations were variable due to contrasting coastal geomorphology between the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico coasts.
A section of the coastline along the Pacific coast (i.e., states
of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas;
Table 1, Fig. 1b) is composed of metamorphic rocks
(Paleozoic) partially as a result of the subduction of the
Cocos Plate beneath the North American Plate resulting in
terrain elevations of up to 2,000 m (e.g., Sierra Madre del Sur)
along the Pacific coast (south of 21°N). The Baja California
Peninsula (143,390 km2 area; length 3,624 km), located in
northwestern Mexico, is a landmass separating the Pacific
Ocean from the Gulf of California. In contrast to the
Mexican Pacific coast, limestone, clastic, and coastal alluvial
rocks of different geological age largely characterize the
coastline along the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. In
the Yucatán Peninsula (area 165,000 km2, length 1,941 km),
elevations are <200 m and surface-water runoff and drainage
are practically nonexistent, except in the southern peninsula
(Escolero et al. 2007; Perry et al. 2009).
Satellite imagery was used to document changes in cloud
coverage and coastal/oceanic primary productivity (Chl-a) for
the selected case studies representing typical TC landfalls
across the Yucatán and Baja California Peninsulas. Digital
imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental
Satellite (GOES) infrared channel was used to determine
cloud-cover structures as well as to supply a measure of
cloud-top temperature with the coldest (highest) tops associated with deep convection and the likelihood of heavy rainfall
on the ground. Chl-a concentrations were derived using data
from the SeaWiFS sensor archived by the NASA’s Ocean
Biology Processing Group (http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov).
Level-1 data were downloaded and processed into Level-2
Chl-a using the SeaWiFS Data Analysis System (SeaDAS)
software and the standard OC4 algorithm. Due to variable
cloud cover during storm periods, Chl-a averages were obtained for periods ranging from ~2 to 10 days before and
after TC landfalls. The number of images used to obtain
average values was selected based on images with reasonable coverage of the area since during storm passages there
are days with no or minimal coverage. An image in this set
with minimal cloud cover was identified as a good image
and the percentage of cloud free pixels in this image was
determined (Table 2). As the biological response to TC
passages can vary spatially, for comparative purposes,
Chl-a estimates were determined only along TC tracks
(~15 km wide) for consistency. In the case of TCs Isidore
and Stan, Chl-a values were estimated only for one track
(T1), while for Juliette and Jimena, which made
landfall twice, two tracks (T1 and T2) were included in
the analysis. The normalized difference in mean Chl-a
(ND = (A − B)/ (A + B)) was determined (Davis and Yan
2004), where A and B represent the mean Chl-a values
along either T1 or T2 tracks before and after landfall.
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Results
TC Climatology
There were 1,065 named TCs with a wide diversity in tracks
(Fig. 1a) during the 41-year study period. Overall, the TC
development areas are located north of 5–10°N. There is
northwestward motion toward land areas over the Atlantic
basin and away from the continent in the eastern Pacific.
Only a small fraction (14 %) of the total TCs included in our
analysis crossed the Mexican coasts. Most landfall events
occurred during the season’s peak, from August through
October, and the strike intensities were dominated by tropical
depressions (16 %), tropical storms (40 %), and category-1
hurricanes (19 %).
Overall, a greater percentage (~70 %) of the total TCs
crossing into Mexico occurred on the west coast states with
a lower proportion being labeled as major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 in the Saffir-Simpson scale, Table 1). States with
the highest frequencies of TC landfall were Baja California
Sur and Sinaloa (Fig. 1b; Table 1) in the Pacific coast and
Quintana Roo in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region
(Jáuregui 2003). Together, the Baja California Peninsula (including the states of Sonora and Sinaloa) and the Yucatán
Peninsula (plus the state of Veracruz) comprised 67 % of the
171 landfall events (Table 1). The temporal distribution of
landfall frequencies displays some inactive seasons in the
Atlantic basin (Fig. 2a) such as the period from 1984 to
1987, when most of the TC development was over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico or over the northern Atlantic Ocean. In
contrast, the 2005 season was extremely active over the entire
basin. This high activity resulted in eight landfall events with
two being category-4 hurricanes that landed 3 months apart
over the Yucatán Peninsula. Three category-5 hurricanes also
made landfall in the states of Tamaulipas in 1977 and
Quintana Roo in 1988 and 2007. Because most TCs travel
in a northwestward direction from the Caribbean Sea, their
movement over land is often through the Yucatán Peninsula to
later enter the Gulf of Mexico. A regular pattern of TC
landfalls occurred on the west coast (Fig. 2b) with the least
number of major TCs during the early decade (1970–1980).
Precipitation
Although the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation for
all landfalling events identified in this study were determined,
only the 20 highest precipitation accumulations that impacted
the east and west coast of Mexico were considered in our
analysis (Tables 3 and 4). The 3-day accumulation estimations
ranged from 475 to 822 mm; the highest precipitation event
was a category-1 hurricane that made landfall along the west
coast in 1974. The large-scale impact of TCs on the coastal
regions as illustrated by the magnitude of the ratio between the
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Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
Table 2 Tropical cyclone parameters considered in the text along with the Chl-a response following their landfall
Name
Isidore
Stan
Juliette
Jimena
Landfall
No images used BL
DB; % of pixels
No images used AL
DA; % of pixels
Mean of T1 BL (B) (mg m-3)
Mean of T1 AL (A) (mg m-3)
Mean of T2 BL (B) (mg m-3)
Mean of T2 AL (A) (mg m-3)
D=A−B (T1) (mg m-3)
RD=(A−B)/(A+B) (T1)
9-22-02
5
4; ~70
6
6; ~50
0.74±0.91
1.02±1.15
10-02-05
6
3; ~50
5
7; ~75
0.70±1.33
0.82±1.26
0.28
0.12
0.12
0.08
9-30-01
8
5; ~50
5
6; ~75
0.17±0.06
0.70±0.32
0.46±0.32
1.61±1.95
0.53
0.61
9-02-09
2
4; ~70
4
5; ~70
0.22±0.27
0.49±1.22
0.35±0.34
0.41±0.24
0.27
0.38
DB days before landfall for a good image, DA days after landfall for a good image, BL before landfall, AL after landfall
3-day accumulations and the long-term annual average
(Tables 3 and 4) suggests greater annual rainfall contribution
by TCs along the west coast (64–172 %) than the east coast
(31–71 %). Six (out of 20) events contributed more than
100 % of the long-term mean annual precipitation during
passage through Baja California Sur, with three tropical
storms and a tropical depression among the top ten causing
heavy rainfall. The tracks of the four TCs considered in this
study (Fig. 3a) and a timeline of their wind speeds before and
after landfalls (Fig. 3b) provide an overview of the hurricane
intensity on the east and west coast of Mexico. On the west
coast, while the peak wind intensities were similar for TCs
Juliette and Jimena, their translation speeds differed before
landfalls (Fig. 3b). TC Juliette (2001), for example, remained
Fig. 2 Number of tropical
cyclone landfalls along the east
(a) and west (b) coasts of Mexico
during the period 1970–2010.
Intensities are classified as
tropical depression (TD), tropical
storm (TS), category-1 hurricane
(H1), category-2 hurricane (H2),
or major hurricane (MH)
nearly stationary for a couple of day as a category-1 hurricane
just southwest from the peninsula before landing as a tropical
storm. During this time, it contributed to one of the highest
precipitation events in the region (Table 4; Farfán 2004). On
the east coast, while both TCs Isidore and Stan made landfall
on the Yucatán Peninsula, their tracks and wind strength
differed before landfall (Fig. 3b), resulting in differences in
their precipitation patterns (Fig. 4).
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, http://
trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) database was used to assess the spatial
extent (grid resolution: 25 km) of TC precipitation and its
contribution during landfall (Merritt-Takeuchi and Chiao
2013; Farfán et al. 2012). The spatial footprints in
precipitation accumulation differed in the case of TCs
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
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Table 3 Intensity and precipitation values of selected tropical cyclones
making landfall, in the east coast, in the period 1970–2010. TD tropical
depression, TS tropical storm, HN hurricane category in the SaffirSimpson scale. Precipitation value is the total accumulation during a 3-
day period. The ratio is the proportion of precipitation to the annual
average estimated for the 1951– 2010 period using data from the weather
station with maximum accumulation
Rank
Year
Month
Name
State
Intensity at landfall
Precipitation (mm)
Ratio (%)
1
2
3
4
2005
2002
2000
1988
October
September
October
September
Wilma
Isidore
Keith
Debby
Quintana Roo
Yucatán
Tamaulipas
Veracruz
H4
H2
H1
H1
770
683
598
594
59
56
71
61
5
6
7
8
9
10
1980
2005
1993
1990
2005
1995
September
October
September
August
July
August
Hermine
Stan
Gert
Diana
Emily
Gabrielle
Veracruz
Veracruz
Veracruz
Veracruz
Tamaulipas
Tamaulipas
TS
H1
H2
H2
H3
TS
583
558
547
535
497
475
31
33
48
45
71
44
Isidore and Stan on the east coast but were similar for TCs
Jimena and Juliette on the west coast before their landfalls
(Fig. 4). Isidore’s core precipitation occurred offshore (100–
200 mm), decreasing on the Yucatán Peninsula as it moved
along its northern coastline (Fig. 4a). Following Stan’s
landfall, most of the heavy precipitation occurred in the
southern Gulf of Mexico particularly westward toward
Veracruz (Fig. 4d). On the west coast, heavy precipitation
was recorded during TC Juliette’s approach and landfall in
Baja California Sur (Fig. 4e). Similar to TC Juliette, TC
Jimena made landfall in Baja California Sur and then moved
slowly over the peninsula and the Gulf of California where
heavy precipitation was recorded in the central region (Fig.
4h). However, in contrast to the east coast (Fig. 4b, d), postlandfall precipitation decreased considerably in the case of the
two west coast TCs (Fig. 4f, h).
GOES infrared imagery additionally revealed the extensive
cloud and wind structure associated with the four TCs used in
our analysis (Fig. 5). Cloud-cover imagery shows TC Isidore
was better organized than Stan at landfall (Fig. 5c, d). Isidore
had a convective-cloud-cover radius of ~550 km and winds
extending on a radius of 146 km at landfall. Precipitation in
the case of TC Stan reached values of 558 mm (Table 3) with
64 % of the rainfall occurring on a single day. This high
precipitation occurred ~135 km northwest inland from the
second landfall position and within 10 km from the coastline
(Fig. 4d). In the case of both Juliette and Jimena, patterns of
cloud cover and wind fields were similar and well organized;
however, the cloud structure was slightly asymmetrical and
denser in the case of Jimena, thus supporting the elevated
rainfall recorded over the mainland (Fig. 5a, b).
Table 4 Intensity and precipitation values of selected tropical cyclones
making landfall, in the west coast, in the period 1970–2010. TD tropical
depression, TS tropical storm, HN hurricane category in the SaffirSimpson scale. Precipitation value is the total accumulation during a 3-
day period. The ratio is the proportion of precipitation to the annual
average estimated for the 1951– 2010 period using data from the weather
station with maximum accumulation. N/A no data
East Coast Chl-a Distribution
Mean Chl-a spatial distributions and values along the TC tracks
of the four cyclones show a general increase in Chl-a values
Rank
Year
Month
Name
State
Intensity at landfall
Precipitation (mm)
Ratio (%)
1
2
3
1974
2001
1998
June
September
September
Dolores
Juliette
Isis
Guerrero
Baja California Sur
Baja California Sur
H1
TS
TS
822
677
610
64
139
125
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1982
2007
1975
1981
2006
2009
2003
October
September
July
October
September
September
September
Paul
Henriette
Eleanor
Lidia
John
Jimena
Marty
Baja California Sur
Baja California Sur
Colima
Sinaloa
Baja California Sur
Baja California Sur
Baja California Sur
H3
H1
TD
TS
H2
H2
H2
602
545
545
523
488
487
483
169
N/A
60
57
137
172
165
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Fig. 3 a. Tracks of the ten
tropical cyclones that landed with
the highest rainfall value from
1970 to 2010. b Wind speed as a
function of timeline for: Juliette
(2001), Isidore (2002), Jimena
(2009), and Stan (2005). Vertical
bars represent landfall events
along Yucatán and Baja
California Peninsulas
following TC landfall (Figs. 6, 7, 8, and 9). On the Yucatán
Peninsula, a well-organized TC Isidore moved along its northern
coastline before making landfall on the northern coast on 22
September 2002 (Figs. 3a, 5c). Isidore’s circulation center
remained over land for >30 h causing record rainfall (683 mm,
Table 3) registered by a meteorological station located 25 km
south of the coastline. Subsequently, the circulation weakened
considerably and moved northward into the Gulf of Mexico
(Fig. 3b). Isidore’s pre-landfall track, wind structure, and precipitation pattern appeared to have strongly influenced Chl-a distribution in the Campeche Bank (Fig. 6a, b). Chl-a values before
Isidore made landfall were generally high along the northern and
western Yucatán coast. Offshore in the Campeche Bank, Chl-a
values were low and generally decreased with distance from the
coast. Following landfall and its passage north into the Gulf of
Mexico, Chl-a increased throughout the Campeche Bank with
elevated values extending more than 100 km from the coast
(Fig. 6b). Along the TC track (T1) for example, mean Chl-a
increased by 0.28 mg m-3 (Fig. 8a; Table 2). The northwestward
oriented plume-like pattern of decreasing Chl-a (Fig. 6b) suggests strong coupling to the wind field (Fig. 5c). We identified a
large relative increase (~0.7) in Chl-a off the north-eastern coast
of the Yucatán Peninsula (Fig. 9a) that could be attributed to the
intense mixing associated with high wind speeds as Isidore
moved parallel to the coast before landfall (Fig. 3b). This elevated region of Chl-a also coincided with intense precipitation
(Fig. 4a).
As part of an active season that characterized the Atlantic
basin in 2005, Stan made its first landfall in the Mexican state
of Quintana Roo (Beven et al. 2008). After crossing the
Yucatán peninsula as a tropical storm, Stan moved across the
Bay of Campeche and made a second landfall in southern
Veracruz as a category-1 hurricane (Fig. 3). Even before
Stan’s passage through the Bay of Campeche, probably as a
result of Stan’s extensive spatial footprint (Fig. 5d), Chl-a
values were elevated along the shallow eastern Yucatán
Peninsula coast (Fig. 6c) likely due to interference from other
water constituents. Following Stan’s passage through the Bay
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
Fig. 4 Rainfall accumulation
from the Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission (TRMM)
during the periods a, b 16 Sep–29
Sep 2002, c, d 26 Sep–09 Oct
2005, e, f 24 Sep–07 Oct 2001,
and g, h 27 Aug–09 Sep 2009.
Shading indicates accumulations
above 50 mm. The contour
interval is 25 mm, and white
contours indicate more than
200 mm. Track positions are
given by the solid lines and filled
circles. Latitude and longitude
lines are shown at 1-degree
intervals
Fig. 5 GOES infrared imagery
for selected tropical cyclones that
landed in the Baja California and
Yucatán Peninsulas coastline. a
Juliette (1800 UTC 28 September
2001), b Jimena (0000 UTC 3
September 2009), c Isidore (2115
UTC 22 September 2002), and d
Stan (1200 UTC 4 October 2005).
Black arrows indicate wind
streamlines at the 10-m level
aboveground, Vtrasl is the
translation speed, and RTS is the
radius of tropical storm wind
speed
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Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
Fig. 6 Average Chl-a estimates
(mg m-3) SeaWiFS-derived
before and after tropical cyclone
landfall. Isidore, before (a) and
after (b) landfall on 22 September
2002; Stan, before (c) and after
(d) landfall on 2 October 2005.
White lines are tropical cyclone
tracks; Track 1 (T1) trajectory is
discussed in the text. Black arrow
represents the landfall site and
storm direction. Black dot is the
weather station that registered
maximum rainfall accumulation
during landfall. PR Papaloapan
River, CR Coatzacoalcos River,
GR Grijalva-Usumacinta River
of Campeche, mean Chl-a slightly increased (0.12 mg m-3)
(Table 2; Fig. 8b). A distinct increase in Chl-a was observed
around large river mouths (i.e., Papaloapan, Coatzacoalcos,
and Grijalva-Usumacinta) and west of the Stan landfall location (Figs. 6d, 9b). A large relative increase (~0.7) in Chl-a
concentration was also detected west of the Yucatán Peninsula
as indicated by a large patch in the eastern region of the
Campeche Bay (Fig. 9b).
West Coast Chl-a Distribution
TC Juliette moved along a track parallel to Mexico’s west
coast and intensified into a category-4 hurricane in late
September 2001; it made landfall as a tropical storm at the
Baja California Sur western coastline to later dissipate over
the northern Gulf of California (Fig. 3). Chl-a distribution
before Juliette made landfall revealed elevated values off the
Baja California Peninsula with decreasing gradients southward and offshore. Plumes of Chl-a that extended more than
100 km into the oligotrophic and stratified offshore waters
(Fig. 7a) appear to be associated with upwelling events and
mesoscale circulation patterns (Legaard and Thomas 2007;
Espinosa-Carreón et al. 2012). Chl-a concentrations in the
Gulf of California were low in the deeper (~3,000 m) southern
region, while values increased in the shallower northern region, particularly in the midriff islands of Angel de la Guarda
and Tiburón areas where a sill separates both locations; elevated Chl-a values were also observed in the eastern part of
the Gulf of California along the coast (Fig. 7a). Previous
studies show that tidal forcing and coastal upwelling are the
two main mechanisms regulating the high primary productivity observed in these waters (Kahru et al. 2004). TC Juliette
made two landfalls on the western and eastern regions of the
Peninsula (Fig. 7b), apparently causing an increase in Chl-a
values throughout the Gulf of California and an extensive
region off the southern Baja California Peninsula. Around
track T1, the mean Chl-a increased significantly by
~0.53 mg m-3 from 0.17 to 0.70 mg m-3, following Juliette’s
passage (Fig. 7a, b; Fig. 8c; Table 2). This increase in concentration was even greater than that observed for other TCs in
the Atlantic (Davis and Yan 2004). Satellite imagery revealed
the large spatial extent (~21.5–24.5°N or ~330 km) of Chl-a
distribution (Figs. 8c, 9c), suggesting a strong impact of this
TC on the regional aquatic productivity. A large increase in
Chl-a was also observed in the Gulf of California as Juliette
transited the Gulf (Fig. 7c, d; Table 2). Mean Chl-a increased
by 1.15 mg m-3 from 0.46 to 1.61 mg m-3 along track T2,
which extended through most of the central and northern Gulf.
The relative Chl-a concentration increase (>0.5, Table 2)
along the track and over a large area west of the Peninsula
(Fig. 9c) was substantial, suggesting large productivity increases following TC Juliette’s passage.
TC Jimena made landfall in central Baja California Sur on
2 September 2009 as a category-2 hurricane (Farfán 2011) on
a similar track as TC Juliette; landfall positions were only
25 km apart (Fig. 3). Mean Chl-a values increased from 0.22
to 0.49 mg m-3 along T1 (Table 2) with most of the increase
occurring along a relatively narrow shelf (Fig. 9d). The TC
center remained over land or within 100 km from the gulf
coast for more than 48 h, and it weakened into a tropical
depression before dissipating off Baja California. Satellite
imagery before Jimena’s landfall (Fig. 7c) shows elevated
Chl-a values along the central inner shelf off Baja
California, and they extended into the oligotrophic offshore
waters associated with nutrient upwelling (Legaard and
Thomas 2007). Surface Chl-a distribution patterns in the
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
1397
Fig. 7 Average Chl-a
concentrations (mg m-3)
SeaWIFS-derived before and
after tropical cyclone landfall.
Juliette, before (a) and after (b)
landfall on 30 September 2001;
Jimena, before (c) and after (d)
landfall on 2 September 2009.
White lines are tropical cyclone
tracks; Track 1 (T1) and Track 2
(T2) are discussed in the text.
White dot represents the weather
station that registered maximum
rainfall accumulation during
landfall. White lines are transects.
The black lines over the continent
are major rivers. CR Colorado
River, YR Yaqui River
Gulf of California were similar to pre-Juliette’s landfall, i.e.,
lower Chl-a values in the southern region of the Gulf of
California and higher values in the central and northern regions (Fig. 7c). After TC Jimena’s landfall, Chl-a concentrations were apparently enhanced most probably due to windinduced upwelling as the hurricane traversed the central peninsula. The offshore plumes of elevated Chl-a did not appear
to be disturbed by the TC passage, while off southern Baja
California, a large area of elevated Chl-a concentrations appeared following the TC passage.
Discussion and Conclusions
We identified Baja California Sur and Sinaloa on the west and
Quintana Roo on the east coasts, Mexico, as hot spots with a
large number of TC landfall events during the 1970–2010
period. Furthermore, from these events, we also identified
the TCs with the 20 highest precipitation accumulations during landfall, six of which contributed more than 100 % of the
long-term mean annual precipitation in the Baja California
Peninsula region. The physical properties and tracks of the
four selected TCs analyzed during the SeaWiFS satellite operational period reveal that the TC size (i.e., radius of tropical
storm winds; 146 to 324 km) and strength are related to
changes in Chl-a values and spatial distribution (Fig. 5).
This association has been observed in other studies linking
TC size and movement to Chl-a (e.g., Babin et al 2004; Miller
et al. 2006; Shang et al. 2008). The storm tracks and area of
influence of the TCs Isidore (2002) and Stan (2005) on
Mexico’s east coast and Juliette (2001) and Jimena (2009)
on the Pacific coast showed significant increases in Chl-a
1398
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
Fig. 8 Chl-a (mg m-3) estimates
from SeaWiFS imagery along T1
tracks shown in Figs. 5 and 6 for
TCs (a) Isidore, (b) Stan, (c)
Juliette, and (d) Jimena.
Chlorophyll-a (mg m-3) estimates
from SeaWiFS images along
transects shown in Figs. 4 and 6,
before (filled circles) and after
(open circles) landfall on the east
(a, Isidore; b, Stan) and west (a,
Juliette; b, Jimena) coasts
(~10-80 %) when compared to values before the storm in both
regions. These results show that while TC strength has an
important impact on coastal and offshore Chl-a distribution,
additional factors such as the intensity of precipitation, the
relative movement of the TCs, and the spatial scales of the two
peninsulas also appeared to influence Chl-a spatial variability.
TC translation speeds impacting the Yucatán Peninsula
ranged from 2 to 4 m s-1 (Fig. 3b) and could be considered
low when compared with speeds classified as fast, ranging
from 6 m s-1 (Price 1981) to >9 m s-1 (Farfán et al. 2013). As
TC Isidore moved along the northeastern Yucatán coast before
making landfall, its high wind speeds likely increased water
column mixing that resulted in the largest relative Chl-a
increase in the eastern Campeche Bank. Coincidently, the
same enhanced Chl-a region also had the most intense precipitation, indicating an indirect linkage between precipitation
and elevated primary production. Stan, in contrast, was a
lower intensity TC as it entered the Campeche Bay due to its
transit through the Yucatán Peninsula. Relative changes in
Chl-a were patchy over the Campeche Bay following the TC
passage with highest Chl-a increase along the coast; these
increases also coincided with TRMM estimated rainfall accumulation of >200 mm (Fig. 4d). Discharge from rivers likely
increased significantly following Stan passage since discharge
rates calculated using data collected by the SMN’s hydrometric stations within the Grijalva-Usumacinta River System,
Tabasco showed a 45–150 % increase in comparison with
rates recorded prior (25 September) to Stan’s landfall (data
no shown); higher discharge rates (440 %) were also observed
at a station downstream of the Papaloapan River in Veracruz,
where a large increase in Chl-a was detected (Fig. 9b).
Although Chl-a was likely overestimated in these coastal
waters due to CDOM and suspended sediments associated
with elevated discharge, increased nutrient loading most
likely also contributed to the observed phytoplankton
blooms (Gomez 2002; Alvarez-Gongora and HerreraSilveira 2006).
Along Mexico’s west coast, biological response following
TCs Juliette and Jimena differed considerably in terms of
spatial extent and magnitude of phytoplankton biomass even
though the TC intensities and tracks were very similar. The
main differences between the two TCs were the translational
speeds and precipitation accumulation before and after landfall as well as the physical response of the waters impacted by
the cyclones. For example, Juliette’s relatively slow motion
(0.9 m s-1, Fig. 5a) prior to landfall was also associated with an
excessive rainfall maximum (677 mm, Table 4) along with
new records of maximum daily rates. These high rainfall
accumulations represent a maximum record (>600 mm) from
a TC approaching the peninsula during the last four decades,
particularly over its southern mountain range (Antinao and
Farfán 2013). Juliette’s winds also increased the mixed layer
depth from ~5 to ~40 m inducing strong upwelling along the
southeastern coast of the peninsula (Zamudio et al. 2010); this
physical response also likely contributed to a relatively large
increase (~0.4–0.8 mg m-3) in phytoplankton biomass in the
same upwelling region (Fig. 9c). For example, in the Gulf of
California, a coastally trapped wave generated by Juliette
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
1399
Fig. 9 Normalized difference in
Chl-a concentrations determined
from SeaWiFS imagery (Figs. 6
and 7) before and after TC
passage for (a) Isidore, (b) Stan,
(c) Juliette, and (d) Jimena
propagated first along the mainland in the Gulf, then reversed direction and travelled along the eastern coast of Baja
California Peninsula, rounded the southern tip of the peninsula, and then moved northward (Zamudio et al. 2002). Such
coastally trapped waves have been shown to initiate bottom
resuspension in the shallow Louisiana coast during passage
of TC Ike (D’Sa et al. 2011). However, in the deeper Baja
California coastline, the coastally trapped waves generated
by Juliette likely deepened the mixed layer, thus leading to
elevated Chl-a observed along the coastline (Figs. 7b, 9a).
Localized increases in Chl-a along the mainland coastline,
such as at the Yaqui River mouth in Sonora (Fig. 7b), are
likely related to a large increase in discharge from these
rivers (e.g., a ~200 % increase in discharge from 20 to
62 m3 s-1 at a station located 200 km from the coastline
and 700 m above sea level). Although TC Jimena’s track
before landfall was similar to that of Juliette, its translation
motion was higher (3.1 m s-1, Fig. 5b), and rainfall accumulation was less, though still substantial (487 mm). Most
of the biological response as a result of Jimena’s landfall
was along the south and central Pacific coast in Baja
California (Fig. 9d) probably due to wind-induced mixing
of the water column. Although in the central Gulf of
California, a large increase in Chl-a coincided with elevated
precipitation (Fig. 4h), strong winds as Jimena transited the
peninsula (Fig. 5b) potentially contributed to the deepening
of the surface mixed layer. While satellite imagery showed
Juliette’s strong biological response as it traversed the upper
Gulf of California, (Fig. 9c), Jimena’s biological response
was minimal (Fig. 9d). A complex biological response was
observed in both peninsular regions where changes in Chl-a
concentration and spatial distribution depended on TC wind
strength, its movement relative to the coastline, excessive
precipitation compounded by the river discharge, presence
of tributaries, and groundwater discharge.
Our long-term analysis of frequencies, trajectories, and
landings of TCs that impact Mexico’s Gulf of Mexico,
Caribbean Sea, and Pacific Ocean coastlines underscores the
strong impact of natural large-scale disturbances on the climate, weather, hydrology, and coastal aquatic primary productivity, among other geophysical and ecological processes
(Calderón-Aguilera et al. 2012). The TC spatial pattern
1400
impacts in the Americas are unique since both the eastern
Pacific and Atlantic TCs impact Mexico in contrast to other
countries in the Greater Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico
(Fig. 1). For example, the United States has been impacted by
major hurricanes along its Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts,
yet its Pacific coast (particularly California) is hardly affected
by direct hits, at least during the last 41 years. These results
suggest that TCs must be considered when assessing both
short- and long-term primary productivity and associated secondary production, especially for commercial fisheries (La
Peyre and Gordon 2012; Frazier et al. 2013; Holdschlag and
Ratter 2013). Results indicate the need to determine the potential influence of TCs in controlling water resource availability and their effect on nutrient and carbon cycling (Troxler
et al. 2013). Sudden increments in river and groundwater
discharge can dramatically alter the oligotrophic and eutrophic
status of coastal regions, especially in the Caribbean coast
where excess nutrient inputs from increased discharge associated with urban and industrial development can also lead to
coastal eutrophication (Metcalfe et al. 2011).
It is also not clear how TCs affect the relative role of coastal
lagoons and estuaries as sources or sinks of nutrients and
carbon in upwelling areas in the Baja California and Yucatán
coastal regions (Ribas-Ribas et al. 2011; Doney et al. 2012).
To our knowledge, there is a lack of field studies that directly
measure the influence of nutrient loading rates on primary
productivity as a result of TC impacts in Mexican coastal
waters; particularly, in regions strongly affected by direct
TCs hits and with variable continental shelf extension and
dynamic water column stability as the cases of these peninsulas (Enriquez et al. 2010). Despite the lack of direct estimations of actual river discharge and associated nutrient loading
rates in our study areas, our analysis underlines the significant
role that TCs have in controlling, not only primary productivity (Chl-a) during short periods of time after hurricane impact,
but also the regional-scale connectivity among precipitation
and hydrology in subtropical and tropical latitudes (Cheng
et al. 2010; Valle-Levinson et al. 2011; Serrano et al. 2013).
The results of this study also stress the need to enhance the
distribution and density of rain-gauge networks, particularly
in the hot spots identified as the most prone to receive direct
impact by TCs. The estimated in situ rainfall values represent
accumulations updated every 24 h and could be different from
the actual instantaneous rates. This difference is an important
consideration when making damage assessments, due to highly variable rainfall rates, and to better understand the link
between heavy rainfall over land and river discharge along
coastal offshore regions. Because of significant differences in
regional topography between the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific
coasts, it is recommended to explore the role of watershed
distribution and structural complexity to determine how soil
type and vegetation cover influence net river and groundwater
discharge into adjacent coastal waters. Although our analysis
Estuaries and Coasts (2014) 37:1388–1402
included most of the weather stations with long-term records,
increasing the number of stations in the SMN network, especially along the coast, will improve local and regional precipitation estimates. Both the Yucatán and Baja California
Peninsulas are dominated by semi-arid climates (de Grenade
2013; de Grenade and Nabhan 2013); thus, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems in these regions are more sensitive to changes
in the amount of long-term precipitation. Although it is not
clear if the number of TCs will increase significantly in the
future as a result of climate change (Bender et al. 2010;
Knutson et al. 2010), there is a consensus indicating that TC
strength will increase as ocean temperatures increase, particularly in the Atlantic Coast (Holland and Webster 2007).
Since precipitation is expected to decrease, for example,
throughout the Yucatán Peninsula due to climate change
(Karmalkar et al. 2011), it is critical to evaluate how TCs, as
pulsing natural disturbances (Collins et al. 2011), will contribute comparatively to changes in annual precipitation across
both peninsulas in the long term.
Acknowledgments This work was supported by funding from the InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) CRN II #2048 and
#2050, which is provided by the United States National Science Foundation (Grant GEO-0452325). Additional support, for LMF, was provided by
the National Council on Science and Technology in Mexico (CONACYT,
Grant 23448). EJD would like to acknowledge partial support from
NASA’s Applied Sciences Program grant NNA07CN12A. VHRM participation was partially funded by the National Science Foundation through
the Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) Long-Term Ecological Research
program under Grant No. DBI-0620409 and the NASA-JPL project (LSU
Subcontract# 1452878) “Vulnerability Assessment of Mangrove Forest
Regions of the Americas.” The SMN, historical archive of rainfall records
was provided by Alejandro González Serratos and Adolfo Portocarrero.
The GOES imagery was provided by the Space Science and Engineering
Center University of Wisconsin-Madison. The SeaWiFS data was provided by NASA’s Ocean Color group and the TRMM datasets by NASA’s
Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center
(DISC). This work was greatly improved by comments from Victor
Camacho-Ibar and three anonymous reviewers.
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