Journal of the Geological Society, London, Vol. 156, 1999, pp. 457–464. Printed in Great Britain Timing of formation of forebergs in the northeastern Gobi Altai, Mongolia: implications for estimating mountain uplift rates and earthquake recurrence intervals LEWIS A. OWEN 1 , DICKSON CUNNINGHAM 2 , BENEDICT W. M. RICHARDS 3 , EDWARD RHODES 4 , BRIAN F. WINDLEY 2 , DORJ DORJNAMJAA 5 & JALBUUGIN BADAMGARAV 5 1 Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521-0423, USA (e-mail: [email protected]) 2 Department of Geology, University of Leicester, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK 3 Department of Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey TW20 0EX, UK 4 Research Laboratory for Archaeology and History of Art, Oxford University, 6 Keble Road, Oxford OX1 3QJ, UK 5 Mongolian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geology, Ulaan Bator, Mongolia Abstract: Bedrock and Quaternary alluvial fans in the forelands of the northern Gobi Altai have been faulted and warped by foreland-propagating thrust faults to form elongate hills known as forebergs. Forebergs near Bogd town, north of Arsta Bogd, and at Ih Hetsüü, north of Baga Bogd were mapped and their formation constrained using luminescence dating of lacustrine and fanglomerates sediments to give localized uplift rates of c. 0.05 m ka 1, and between c. 1.6 and 4.1 m ka 1, respectively. Comparisons between vertical surface rupture during the 1957 Gobi Altai earthquake with the age and amount of uplift of lacustrine sediments provide a tentative estimate of between 1288382 to 497120 years for the average recurrence interval of great earthquakes in the Baga Bogd region. These localized uplifts rates support the view that the Gobi Altai Mountains probably took between 50 and 25 million years to form and were, therefore, coeval with the uplift of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. Keywords: Gobi Altai, Mongolia, earthquakes, luminescence dating, uplift rates. The surface ruptures of the 1957 Gobi Altai (sometimes spelt Altay) earthquake (Magnitude 8.3) in Mongolia has attracted much interest in recent years because of its similarities with the simultaneous rupture along both the San Andreas fault and the Sierra Madre-Cucamonga fault during the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (Bayarsayhan et al. 1996; Kurushin et al. 1997). The principal Gobi Altai ruptures stretch for 260 km along the northern margin of the mountains of Ih Bogd and Baga Bogd to Bayan Tsagaan Nuruu, and for over 70 km along the southern margin of Ih Bogd. The ruptures are characterized by both left-lateral strike-slip, and thrust and reverse fault offsets. Full and comprehensive details are given in Baljinnyam et al. (1993) and Kurushin et al. (1997). The 1957 quake is believed to be a consequence of slip along the E–W-trending left-lateral North Gobi Altai fault system which is accommodating some of the intracontinental strain caused by the distant India– Eurasia collision 2500 km to the south (Tapponnier & Molnar 1979; Cunningham et al. 1996). Detailed structural traverses in the eastern Gobi Altai support the view that the Gobi Altai formed by localized transpressional deformation and uplift along left-lateral strike-slip faults and at stepover zones between fault segments (Cunningham et al. 1997; Owen et al. 1999). The Gobi Altai Mountains rise to a maximum of 3957 m a.s.l. in Ih Bogd from an extensive desert surface that has elevations of between 1500 and 2000 m a.s.l. Large alluvial fans prograde from the mountain ranges. In the forelands of the Gobi Altai Mountains, the alluvial fans and bedrock are faulted to produce low hills that are approximately parallel to the main mountain front. Florensov & Solonenko (1963) referred to these low hills as ‘forebergs’ and considered them to have been formed by thrust slip on faults that dip steeply beneath the hills and continue at gentle angles towards the neighbouring mountain fronts. These landforms were also described in Owen et al. (1997, 1998) and Kurushin et al. (1997), but little attention had been given to their evolution Fig. 1. Topographic map of the northeastern Gobi Altai showing the locations of the forebergs discussed in this paper. The central and eastern stretch of the 1957 Gobi Altai earthquake rupture zone is shown by the thick black line (adapted from Florensov & Solonenko 1963 and Baljinnyam et al. 1993). 457 MS FS FS FS FS FS TB01 TB09 TB09 TB10 TB11 TB11 Fl L L L L L 4438.401N/10207.286E 4454N/10141E 4454N/10141E 4454N/10141E 4454N/10141E 4455N/10141E Location CGQ FGP CGQ FGP FGP FGQ Type‡ 3.96 2.22 2.22 3.52 3.45 3.45 U sed. (ppm) 11.7 9.28 9.28 14.5 14.6 14.6 Th sed. (ppm) 2.01 2.79 2.79 2.59 2.63 2.63 K sed. (%) 180 155 155 255 220 220 Cosmic doserate (ìGy a 1) 21 1.4 1.4 2.9 3.7 3.7 Water content (%) 3140240 5380430 4177331 6490580 6360590 5551541 Total doserate (ìGy a 1) DE (Gy) 99.817.5 145.622.8 121.127.6 92.911.5 104.413.6 63.215.6 DE is equivalent dose (in Gy). Uncertainties on INAA analyses of U, Th and K are taken to be 10% with the detection limits being 0.05% for K, 0.1 ppm for Th and 0.5 ppm for U. *Lithology: MS, medium sand; FS, fine sand. †Environment of deposition: L, lacustrine sediment; Fl, fluvial sediment. ‡Type: FGP, fine-grained (4–11 ìm) polymineralic (combined IRSL and OSL results); FGQ, fine-grained quartz OSL; CGQ, coarse grained (90–125 ìm) quartz OSL. Lithology* Sample Environment of deposition† Table 1. Values used to calculate luminescence ages and results 31.76.1 27.04.8 29.07.0 14.32.2 16.42.6 11.43.0 Age (ka) 458 LEWIS A. OWEN ET AL. TIMING OF FOREBERG FORMATION IN THE NE GOBI ALTAI, MONGOLIA 459 Fig. 2. Views of the easternmost end of the Bogd foreberg looking SE towards the north side of Artsa Bogd. The foreberg forms an inlier within the Quaternary alluvial fans. and rates of formation. Owen et al. (1997) provided tentative rates of vertical deformation of alluvial fan surfaces of between approximately 0.1 and 1 m ka 1. They based these calculations on tentative relative ages of the alluvial fan deposits which they believed were deposited during the global Last Glacial Maximum. In this paper we examine the structure and geomorphology of forebergs in two areas and date Quaternary lacustrine and fanglomerates sediments to constrain the age of foreberg formation. This age control is used to calculate localized uplift rates and to estimate recurrence intervals for great earthquakes in the north Gobi Altai. prise south dipping Cenozoic and Cretaceous limestones, conglomerates, sandstones and marlstones, deformed by steeply dipping, north-verging thrust faults. The forebergs are bounded to the north by a north-verging upright fold (Fig. 3b). Quaternary alluvial fans are deposited against the bedrock hills. At the western end of the easternmost hill, Quaternary fanglomerates are upwarped and cut by steep thrust faults (Fig. 3c & d). An alluvial fan sediment sample was collected for luminescence dating and its location is shown in Fig. 3d. Measurements of fault offsets at this location and simple leveling across the deformed alluvial fan surface show at least 1.5 m vertical displacement. Geomorphology and structure Ih Hetsüü forebergs Two main study areas, the Bogd and Ih Hetsüü forebergs, were mapped with the aid of Landsat MSS images and using a hand-held global positioning receiver (Fig. 1). Sedimentary sections were measured in the forebergs and in the alluvial fans, and lacustrine and alluvial fan sediment samples were collected for luminescence dating (Table 1). Bogd forebergs The Bogd forebergs comprise three elongate hills that occur c. 10 km SW of Bogd town and 4 km north of Arsta Bogd (Figs 2 & 3). These hills trend NE, parallel to lineaments visible on Landsat images, and the hills rise to a maximum elevation of 120 m above the surrounding alluvial fans. The hills com- The Ih Hetsüü forebergs are located 4 km north of Baga Bogd (Figs 1, 4 & 5). The youngest example, the Hetsüü foreberg, is adjacent to the active trace of the 1957 Gobi-Altai earthquake rupture and is described in detail by Kurushin et al. (1997). To the east of the Hetsüü foreberg, a series of elongate hills rise to 130 m above the recent alluvial fans (Fig. 4a, 5 & 6). Each hill is asymmetric with a steep northern face. The hills consist of bouldery and cobbly fanglomerates that dip southward at angles between 8 and 12 (Fig. 4b). Lacustrine deposits are present south of several of these ridges and were formed when drainage was blocked during the uplift of the forebergs. The southernmost lacustrine deposit extends for at least 600 m in a north-south direction and is tilted southwards 41, while the northernmost lacustrine deposit is folded into an open fold 460 LEWIS A. OWEN ET AL. Fig. 3. Details of the Bogd foreberg. (a) Topographic map of part of the northern edge of Artsa Bogd showing the location of the Bogd foreberg in relation to the main mountain bounding and foreland thrust faults. The location of this map is shown in Fig. 1. (b) Simplified geological map and section through the part of the Bogd foreberg (adapted from Cunningham et al. (1997). (c) Geomorphic map showing the typical topography and the location of deformed Quaternary sediments in part of the Bogd foreberg area. (d) Faulted marlstones and Quaternary sediments exposed in a channel cutting through part of the Bogd foreberg (4438.40N/10207.29E) showing the location of luminescence dating sample TB01 and lower hemisphere stereoplot of the fault plane orientations. The location of the section is shown in (c). with the southern limb dipping at 71 that extends for at least 550 m (Fig. 6a & b). Assuming the lacustrine beds were originally deposited horizontally, the southernmost deposit has, therefore, been uplifted by c. 4210 m (600 m Sin41) and northernmost deposit by c. 6712 m (550 mSin71). The hills and lacustrine deposits are deeply incised and provide good exposures for sampling. The locations and stratigraphic position of each luminescence dating sample is shown in Fig. 6b. These deposits and landforms are in turn overlain by recent alluvial fans deposits. Luminescence dating Sediment samples from lacustrine and alluvial fans deposits were collected in opaque plastic tubes for luminescence dating. These tubes remained sealed until opened under controlled laboratory lighting. Modern water content was determined by mass loss following drying at about 50C for 24 hrs. Modern values are assumed to be typical of water content throughout burial period, although there is no means of verifying this assumption. Coarse (90–125 ìm) quartz and fine polymineral grains (4–11 ìm) fractions were prepared in the laboratory using the methods described in Rhodes (1988), Zimmerman (1967) and Rees-Jones (1995). All luminescence measurements were made using an automated Risø reader (TL-DA-12) fitted with infrared diodes emitting at 88080 nm used for infra red stimulated luminescence (IRSL) measurements, and a filtered halogen lamp which provides wavelengths between 420 and 560 nm (2.9–2.2 eV) for green light optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) measurements. Luminescence signal emissions were filtered with two U340 and one BG39 glass filters. Equivalent dose (DE) values were determined using a naturally normalized total integral, multiple aliquot additive dose technique, fitting a single saturating exponential function (Grün & Brumby 1994). Forty-eight aliquots were measured at eight dose points, with the maximum additional beta dose being 4–5 times the preliminary DE estimate. Subtraction of background was by the last integral subtraction method (Aitken & Xie 1992). The pre-heat treatment used for all quartz sub-samples was 220C for 5 minutes and for polymineral samples was 5 days at 100C followed by 4 hours at 160C. Measurement of all sub-samples was performed for 50 s of stimulation at room temperature, for both IRSL and OSL. In the case of polymineralic samples, IRSL measurement preceded OSL measurement using the same aliquots. The magnitude of a thermal transfer component in the quartz OSL signal (Rhodes & Bailey 1997) was determined using a regenerative x-axis intercept. In all cases, the magnitude of the thermal transfer signal was found to be insignificant. IRSL and OSL fading tests were carried out for most of the samples measured, and showed no discernible fading over a 10 day period. Longer term anomalous fading cannot be ruled out for the polymineral sub-samples. Where multiple DE values were measured for the fine-grained samples (both quartz and polymineralic fractions), these were combined to produce a weighted mean DE value. TIMING OF FOREBERG FORMATION IN THE NE GOBI ALTAI, MONGOLIA Fig. 4. Views of the Ih Hetsüü forebergs. (a) View looking SE towards the northern edge of Baga Bogd with the Ih Hetsüü forebergs in the mid-ground. (b) View looking eastward at one of the Ih Hetsüü forebergs showing northerly dipping fanglomerates. 461 462 LEWIS A. OWEN ET AL. Fig. 5. Landsat MSS image of the Hetsüü and Ih Hetsüü forebergs in relation to the northern edge of Baga Bogd. The surface rupture produced during the 1957 Gobi Altai earthquake is shown by the dashed white line (h=vertical offset in metres; half arrows show horizontal offsets in metres). Adapted from Kurushin et al. (1997). The environmental dose rate was calculated from Neutron Activation Analysis of U, Th and K content of each sample and the water content measured for each sample was used to calculate environmental radiation attenuation during burial. The cosmic dose rate was calculated according to Prescott & Hutton (1994). Table 1 shows the values used to determine sample ages and the derived age estimates. DE values derived from IRSL and OSL of polymineralic samples show no systematic differences and have been combined. Sample TB09 is used to compare coarse-grained quartz OSL and the fine grained polymineralic combined OSL and IRSL results. There is no significant difference within the measurement uncertainties. Similarly, sample TB11 shows that the fine-grained quartz OSL date and the fine-grained polymineral combined OSL and IRSL ages are coherent and consistent. These data lead to an increased degree of confidence in the age estimates, both from the point of view of optical resetting prior to burial and for thermal stability of the luminescence signals. Discussion and implications The Bogd and Ih Hetsüü forebergs were formed by steep thrust faults that propagate into the foreland from the main Gobi Altai ranges. On the basis of the deformed lacustrine deposits in the Ih Hetsüü forebergs, localized uplift rates are 1.60.6 m ka 1 and 4.11.0 m ka 1 (i.e., total uplift of lacustrine deposits/age of lacustrine deposits=4210 m/ 27.04.8 ka and 6712 m/16.42.6 ka) for the southernmost and northernmost forebergs, respectively. Given a constant uplift rate of between about 1.60.6 to 4.11.0 m ka 1 for the Ih Hetsüü forebergs, the highest foreberg may have formed within c. 130 000 and 25 490 years (height of foreberg/uplift rate=130 m/1.60.6 m ka 1 and 130 m/ 4.11.0 m ka 1). Furthermore, by comparing the maximum surface displacement (2 m) at the Hetsüü foreberg during the 1957 earthquake and the uplift of the lacustrine sediments at Ih Hetsüü, i.e., 4210 m since 27.04.8 ka (TB09) and 6712 m since 16.42.6 ka (TB11), this gives an estimate of c. 215 (4210 m/2 m) and 336 (6712 m/2 m) possible great earthquakes. These calculations assume that all the uplift was coseismic and only occurred during great earthquakes. They also assume that 2 m of uplift is characteristic of all great earthquakes at this location. Furthermore, Marco et al. (1996) for example, showed that seismic activity is not necessarily uniformly distributed through time rather it may be clustered between periods of quiescence. Given these caveats, however, it is possible to postulated that the recurrence interval for a great earthquake in this region may be between 1288382 and 497120 years (27.04.8 ka/215 earthquakes and 16.42.6 ka/336 earthquakes). Dating deformed fanglomerates across the Bogd foreberg gave much lower localized minimum surface uplift rates (0.050.003 m ka 1 =the amount of vertical offset of fanglomerates/the age of the fanglomerates (TB01), i.e., 1.50.1 m/31.76.1 ka) than for Ih Hetsüü. This suggests that Arsta Bogd is less active than the Baga Bogd range and this is consistent with the lower topography and more sinuous mountain front of Artsa Bogd. Nevertheless, the whole of the Bogd foreberg probably formed in less than 2.4 million years (the maximum relative relief of the Bogd foreberg/vertical uplift rate, i.e., 120 m/0.05 m ka 1). Given that the localized minimum uplift rates are commonly in the order of about 0.05 and 1 m ka 1 and that the relative relief between the mountains and their forelands is between 2500 and 2000 m, it follows that the Gobi Altai was probably uplifted over a period of between about 50 and 25 million years. Such a conclusion, however, must be treated with care because of the uncertainties associated with extrapolating localized deformation rates to regional scales, and across time scales which range from tens of thousands to millions of years. Nevertheless, if these extrapolations are valid, the uplift of the Gobi Altai is considerably longer than the very rapid uplift (<1 million years) proposed by Baljinnyam et al. (1993). These conclusions help support the view that the uplift of the Gobi Altai was coeval with the formation of the Himalayas and is the result of the India–Eurasia collision. Furthermore, the low rates of vertical deformation in this study are consistent with the low rates (c. 1.2 m ka 1) of horizontal displacement determined by Ritz et al. (1995) along the Bogd fault at the eastern end of Ih Bogd. Conversely, it could be argued that the low deformation rates determined in this study, and that of Ritz et al. (1995), do not represent steady state deformation, but rather the Bogd foreberg and many other active zones may have been active for shorter periods at higher rates before deformation ceased locally. Constraining the style and deformation of forebergs and alluvial fans in the forelands of the Gobi Altai is clearly important for developing models and quantifying rates of uplift in transpressional settings. Forebergs may also provide useful analogues for understanding the nature of fault Fig. 6. (a) Geomorphic map of the Ih Hetsüü forebergs. Adapted from Owen et al. (1997). See Fig. 5 for the location of the map. (b) Geological section through part of the Ih Hetsüü forebergs and graphic sedimentary logs showing the locations of the luminescence dating samples TB09, TB10 and TB11. 464 LEWIS A. OWEN ET AL. propagation and active folding in other major transpressional fault systems. 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