Canada’s ‘unmanifest’ Destiny: Perceptions about the ties that bind Quebec and the rest
of the country
Jack Jedwab
June 23, 2008
History often becomes the object of heightened interest to elected officials when it is
connected to a broader political goal or vision. Historical narrative is usually based on a
chronological record of important events, each event having a cause and subsequent
effect on another event. Events are presented in history as being tangible for example
connected to a date or place. As articulated by American thinkers, the idea of Manifest
Destiny refers to a movement or phenomenon that is not necessarily connected with a
time or place. Manifest Destiny existed and still exists as the philosophy that embraces
American history as a whole. Manifest Destiny is an intangible ideology that
created American history. In its simplest form, Manifest Destiny can be
defined as, "A Movement."
In Quebec and elsewhere in Canada one of the areas that receive considerable attention is
the link between the national political narrative or national history and ongoing
constitutional debates. As political events continue to unfold and there appears no
permanent resolution to the national constitutional saga, the past and present contours of
the debate remain open to interpretation. The manner in which the future is envisioned or
imagined will also depend upon how and by whom events are being interpreted. The idea
that something is pre-determined-it is meant to be or inevitable- can have a profound
impact on the way in which individuals approach an issue. Undoubtedly many actors in
our ongoing national identity debates will attempt to persuade supporters, prospective
supporters and opponents that “history is on their side”. In some ways the term
“historical destiny” (where things should be as opposed to where they are) is a sort of
oxymoron since destiny is associated with the future (one would not speak of the historic
future).
To further examine this issue the Association for Canadian Studies commissioned the
firm Leger Marketing to ask Quebecers and other Canadians about how they envision
their national destiny. The poll was conducted between May 21st and May 25th, 2008
amongst 1507 Canadians 18 years of age and over with a margin of error of 2.9 percent
19 times out of 20.
As observed below, when asked, half of francophone respondents agreed when asked
whether Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada. Larger majorities of anglophones
and allophones agree that Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada. Only a small
percentage of Canadians believe that Quebec is destined to become a country a view held
by 38% of francophone respondents (a figure that closely corresponds to the share of
persons that support Quebec’s becoming a country).
On the matter of whether there would be a Canada without Quebec, there was some
important divergence across language lines. Most francophones do not think there would
be, while most anglophones do believe there would be a Canada without Quebec. For
their part, the allophones were slightly more divided over the issue with more of them
likely to believe that Canada would not exist without Quebec. The responses are
especially interesting in light of the argument made by advocates of sovereignty that
Canada would continue to exist if Quebec were to leave, an idea that is held by other
Canadians but not by most Quebecers.
The next questions are about Quebec's place within Canada. Do
you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree or strongly
disagree:
Weighted :
Total French English Other
1507
329
868 310
Unweighted
1507
470
Quebec is destined to remain part 69%
of Canada
16%
Quebec is destined to become a
country
42%
Without Quebec there would be
no Canada
54%
71% 78%
38%
12%
3%
50%
36%
48%
925
112
On a provincial basis, Ontarians followed by Albertans are most likely to believe that
Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada. Albertans and Ontarians are also more
likely than other Canadians outside of Quebec to believe that there would be no Canada
without Quebec though majorities in each province believe it will continue to exist.
Province
Total Martimes QC ON MB/SK AB BC
Weighted :
1507
112 359 581
99 155 201
Unweighted
1507
100 404 601
125 125 152
Quebec is destined to 69%
remain part of Canada
Quebec is destined to 16%
65% 54% 79%
62% 76% 64%
17% 35% 8%
4% 7% 13%
become a country
Without Quebec there 42%
would be no Canada
34% 50% 41%
28% 45% 36%
Age
18Total 24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Weighted :
1507 177
244
294
304
224 264
Unweighted
1507
180
308
335
224 396
Quebec is destined to
remain part of Canada
Quebec is destined to
become a country
Without Quebec there
would be no Canada
69% 46% 71% 70% 68% 75% 75%
64
16% 19% 15% 14% 18% 16% 12%
42% 38% 53% 36% 40% 40% 43%
Detailed Data
Language
B1
QJ2D
Without
Province
Total French English Other Martimes QC ON MB/SK AB BC
Quebec there
would be no
Canada
1507
Total
pondéré :
329
868
310
112 359 581
99 155 201
Total
absolu :
1507
470
925
112
100 404 601
125 125 152
TOTAL
YES
42%
50%
36%
48%
34% 50% 41%
28% 45% 36%
strongly
agree
21%
25%
16% 30%
13% 24% 23%
12% 19% 18%
somewhat 21%
agree
52%
TOTAL
NO
somewhat 21%
disagree
25%
20%
18%
22% 26% 17%
16% 26% 18%
43%
57%
46%
58% 44% 54%
61% 51% 53%
19%
20%
24%
15% 24% 23%
27% 10% 18%
31%
24%
37%
22%
43% 20% 31%
34% 41% 35%
7%
6%
7%
7%
strongly
disagree
I don't
know / I
prefer not
answering
Language
B1
7%
6% 6%
10%
4% 10%
Province
Total French English Other Martimes QC ON MB/SK AB BC
QJ2E
Quebec is
destined to
remain part
of Canada
1507
Total
pondéré :
329
868
310
112 359 581
99 155 201
Total
absolu :
1507
470
925
112
100 404 601
125 125 152
TOTAL
YES
69%
54%
71% 78%
65% 54% 79%
62% 76% 64%
strongly
agree
35%
27%
33% 47%
26% 28% 39%
27% 39% 38%
somewhat 34%
agree
27%
37%
31%
39% 25% 40%
35% 38% 26%
TOTAL
NO
20%
35%
18%
9%
19% 34% 13%
16% 16% 21%
somewhat 13%
disagree
20%
12%
8%
13% 20% 9%
12% 7% 16%
strongly
disagree
7%
15%
6%
2%
6% 14% 4%
4% 9% 5%
12%
I don't
know / I
prefer not
answering
12%
11%
12%
17% 13% 8%
22% 7% 15%
Language
B1
Province
Total French English Other Martimes QC ON MB/SK AB BC
QJ2F
Quebec is
destined to
become a
country
1507
Total
pondéré :
329
868
310
112 359 581
99 155 201
Total
absolu :
470
925
112
100 404 601
125 125 152
1507
TOTAL
YES
16%
38%
12%
3%
17% 35% 8%
strongly
agree
6%
23%
2%
1%
3% 21% 2%
1%
2% 2%
somewhat
agree
9%
15%
9%
2%
14% 14% 7%
3%
6% 10%
71%
49%
75% 80%
67% 50% 80%
65% 83% 74%
somewhat 24%
disagree
26%
21%
32%
23% 25% 24%
25% 26% 21%
strongly
disagree
46%
24%
54%
48%
44% 25% 56%
40% 58% 53%
14%
I don't
know / I
prefer not
answering
13%
13%
17%
16% 15% 11%
31%
TOTAL
NO
4% 7% 13%
9% 13%
Supplementary Tables:
As observed below francophone respondents that believe Quebec is destined to become a
country are more likely to agree that without Quebec there would be no Canada. If it is
assumed that those more likely to believe that Quebec is destined to become a country are
more likely to favor sovereignty than it is safe to assume that these individuals feel that
Canada will continue to exist after a break-up a view that is not shared by francophones
that do not believe that Quebec is destined to become a country.
French
Without Quebec
there would be no
Canada
strongly agree
somewhat agree
somewhat
disagree
strongly disagree
Quebec is destined to become a country
somewhat
strongly agree
somewhat agree
disagree
strongly disagree
25,7%
28,0%
15,5%
39,7%
8,1%
38,0%
46,4%
17,9%
20,3%
18,0%
28,6%
16,7%
45,9%
14,0%
6,0%
24,4%
2,0%
3,6%
1,3%
I don't know / I
prefer not
answering
English
Quebec is destined to become a country
Without Quebec
there would be no
Canada
somewhat
strongly agree
disagree
somewhat agree
strongly disagree
strongly agree
15,8%
7,3%
9,1%
22,1%
somewhat agree
10,5%
14,6%
29,0%
21,2%
36,8%
22,0%
33,0%
14,4%
36,8%
54,9%
28,4%
40,9%
somewhat
disagree
strongly disagree
I don't know / I
prefer not
1,2%
,6%
1,3%
answering
French
Without Quebec
there would be no
Canada
Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada
somewhat
strongly agree
somewhat agree
disagree
strongly disagree
strongly agree
47,1%
11,2%
26,6%
16,3%
somewhat agree
19,5%
43,8%
28,1%
12,2%
10,3%
31,5%
25,0%
16,3%
18,4%
11,2%
18,8%
55,1%
4,6%
2,2%
1,6%
somewhat
disagree
strongly disagree
I don't know / I
prefer not
answering
English
Without Quebec
there would be no
Canada
Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada
somewhat
strongly agree
somewhat agree
disagree
strongly disagree
strongly agree
38,3%
7,2%
somewhat agree
19,3%
30,1%
12,5%
9,1%
27,6%
33,7%
13,7%
32,1%
33,5%
53,8%
82,4%
somewhat
disagree
strongly disagree
3,9%
I don't know / I
prefer not
1,1%
1,6%
answering
English
Without Quebec
there would be no
Canada
Quebec is destined to remain part of Canada
somewhat
strongly agree
somewhat agree
disagree
strongly disagree
strongly agree
38,3%
7,2%
somewhat agree
19,3%
30,1%
12,5%
9,1%
27,6%
33,7%
13,7%
32,1%
33,5%
53,8%
82,4%
1,1%
1,6%
somewhat
disagree
strongly disagree
I don't know / I
prefer not
answering
3,9%