DRAFT
Demographic challenges for societies on the Eastern shore of Baltic Sea
CBEES Annual Conference „Baltic Sea Region and Eastern Europe: A new generation on the
move”, Stochholm, December 4-5, 2014
Juris Krumins
University of Latvia (Riga), e-mail: [email protected]
Abstract
Three Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, since they appeared on map as
independent countries almost hundred years ago, have shared similar socio-political changes
and demographic development. First and second world wars, years of the soviet rule tracked
tremendous demographic consequences. A new generation has grown up to adulthood during
a period of regained independence and soon will give a birth for children, who will form
societal transformations in the 21st century. Similarities, peculiarities and challenges of factual
and expected demographic changes during the transition period are analysed in the three
Baltic countries and comparisons are made with other countries on the Eastern and Western
shores of Baltic Sea.
Key-words: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, demographic trends and challenges
Introduction
Demography was and still is among the most studied and discussed societal issues in the three
Baltic countries. Geographical location and a shared history with other nations around the
Baltic Sea have influenced socio-demographic trends and differences in Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania. The aim of this study is to summarize main demographic changes in the Baltic
countries during a period since they regained independence, to do comparisons with other
countries on the Eastern and Western shores of Baltic Sea and to light up demographic
challenges facing societies in the beginning of 21st century. More attention is focused to
Latvia – the Baltic country suffered the most from the recent economic downturn.
Historical background
The beginning of demographic transition in the Baltic provinces of the Russian Empire
emerged earlier than in other provinces: in Estonia and Latvia in the mid 19-th century, in
Lithuania several decades later. Appearance of a modern type of population reproduction in
Estonia and Latvia has been the earliest on the territory of Russian Empire and almost
simultaneous with forerunners of fertility transition – countries of Northern and Western
Europe (Coale, Anderson 1979; Katus and Puur 2003). In the second decade of 20th century
population number in Latvia and Lithuania was with rather small difference (0.1-0.4 million)
close to numbers in Denmark and Finland and exceeded number of population in Norway
(Table 1).
Table 1. Number of population in the three Baltic countries and selected Nordic countries,
1910-2011 (millions and changes in %)
1910
1950
2011
2011/1910 (%)
Estonia
1,071
1,02
1,29
+20%
Latvia
2,552
1,95
2,07
-19%
Lithuania
2,833
2,57
3,05
+8%
Denmark
2,764
4,28
5,56
+101%
Finland
2,94
4,03
5,40
+84%
Norway
2,36
3,26
4,89
+107%
Sweden
5,52
7,04
9,48
+72%
1
2
3
4
1919, 1914, 1913, 1911. Source: Official publications of the Statistical Bureaus.
Socio-political and economical consequences of the first and second world war influenced
demographic development in all three Baltic countries tremendously – population numbers
due to direct and indirect losses (especially emigration) in 1950 have not reached initial level.
In some degree it was predetermined by repressions toward civilian population by occupation
forces. Situation has changed during the further period of Soviet dominance, within which
scanty natural increase of population was significantly surpassed (especially in Latvia and
Estonia) by immigration from other parts of the Soviet Union.
Renewal of independence and socio-economical changes during transition period from
centrally planned to market economy led to steep decline of fertility and out-flaw of
population (removal of Soviet army and emigration opportunities caused by fall of iron
curtain). Consequently population number in Latvia during hundred year period has declined
by 19 per cent, which is rather unique figure among European nations. Increase of population
numbers in Estonia and Lithuania significantly lagged behind those observed in the Nordic
countries. Total population number in Denmark and Norway in the same period has increased
more than twofold.
Since the beginning of 1990-s socio-political changes and transition to market economy
caused decline of births rate and rise of mortality, which lead to period of depopulation in all
three Baltic countries. Negative natural increase started in Lithuania two years later than in
Latvia and Estonia (in 1993), declined more smoothly and demonstrated less signs of
recovery in comparison with Estonia, which rather successfully reached zero natural increase
in 2010 (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Natural increase per 1000 population in the Baltic countries, 1989-2013
Source: EUROSTAT
Negative natural increase and especially negative net migration, caused mostly by recent
economic crisis, placed all three Baltic countries among countries with biggest population
decline in Europe (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Population change 2000-2012 (as % of the number at the beginning of 2000)
Source: EUROSTAT
Consequences of unfavourable demographic trends combined with socio-economic
transformations have raised discussions about further demographic development and
challenges for societies on the Eastern shore of Baltic Sea, particularly for generations which
grow up during a time of regained independence and integration to the European Union.
Improvements in data reliability
During four decennials of Soviet rule detailed official demographic data were published only
for restricted circulation. It was caused by misinterpreted secrecy of military use of such data
and unfavourable demographic trends, particularly in health and life expectancy. Situation has
started to change only with Gorabachov’s policy of openness (“glasnostj”) in the second half
of 1980-s. Since that time population studies in the Baltic countries have intensified and
results of them appeared on international scale.
During the 1990-s population registers were introduced in all three Baltic countries and data
obtaining and processing since that time started according to international standards and
recommendations. Nevertheless some drawbacks appeared in migration statistics – firstly,
during an out-migration wave associated with Soviet military personell removal and with
collapse of immigrant labour-force based big industrial enterprises, secondly, during a
liberalisation of mobility and an opening borders for free movement of labour force
(especially after enlargement of the EU in 2004).
Impact of the recent recession on socio-demographic development in combination with an
increased external mobility after the EU enlargement led to the significant demographic
changes, which influenced course and results of Population Censuses 2011. Recession
manifested in a rising unemployment, inflation and decline of real wages. That forced
significant out-flaw of working-age population to look for an employment options and decent
income abroad. Out-flow was only partially recorded by official statistics, which to great
extent rely on registered changes of residency by Population Register. Due to growing
unregistered out-flow of population a difference between the factual and estimated number of
population exceeded in Latvia in the 2011 seven per cent, In Lithuania 5 (?), but in Estonia per cent.
Necessity for innovative approaches in measurement of demographic data during the Census,
after the Census and re-estimation of official pre-Census figures emerged. Comprehensive use
of individual data from different registers and data-bases in combination with new
methodology of specified counts of population and its components of changes, developed by
Statistical Bureaus, allowed to improve reliability of demographic statistics. Use of combined
face-to-face interviews, Internet registration and different state administrative registers
allowed to clarify factual resident population during Census 2011 and to perform a backward
calculation of population change and its components for pre-Census period (Table 2).
Table 2. Population change and its components in Latvia, Prior and After data specification
by CSB (%)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
Population change, Prior
-0,46
-0,42
-0,57
-0,83
-
Population change, After
-0,77
-1,32
-1,96
-2,16
-1,03
of which due to natural increase, Prior
-0,43
-0,31
-0,37
-0,48
-
due to natural increase, After
-0,41
-0,30
-0,36
-0,48
-0,45
due to international migration, Prior
-0,03
-0,11
-0,20
-0,35
-
due to international migration, After
-0,36
-1,02
-1,60
-1,68
-0,58
2013
-1,10
-0,41
-0,69
Source: Demography 2014, 2012 and 2011. CSB of Latvia.
Population change in Latvia mostly due to undercount of international migration until 2010
was underestimated Recession determined a decline of fertility. However, factual fertility
level during recession was higher than estimated fertility figures. Life expectancy during
recession continued to rise, but by lesser absolute increase in comparison with estimated
before. Problem of incomplete population mobility declarations in the Population Register is
not eliminated yet (see Table 3).
Table 3. Number of population in Latvia at the beginning of year by the CSB official data and
Office of Citizenship and Migration Affairs (OCMA) Population Register data, thsd
2008
2009*
2010
2011
2012 2013 2014
1) CSB official data 2192
2163
2121
2075
2045 2024 2001
2) OCMA Population Register
data Difference 2) – 1) 2268
2262
2255
2237
2217 2201 2180
76
99
134
162
172 Ratio 2) / 1), % +3.5
+4.6
+6.3
+7.8
+8.4 +8.7 +8.9
177 179
* 1 July. Source: CSB, 2011. P.18; CSB, 2013. P.18;
http://www.pmlp.gov.lv/lv/sakums/statistika/iedzivotaju-registrs/arhivs.html
Excess of registered number of residents by the Population Register over population figures
estimated by the CSB is increasing both absolutely and relatively. In 2014 it has reached
almost 9 per cent. Legislative alignment and motivation of residents to declare international
mobility is a serious challenge to improve reliability of population figures and socioeconomic decisions made upon them
Comparison of demographic changes during the two periods of recession (1992-1994 and
2008-2010) demonstrates quite similar picture with minor peculiarities (Table 4).
Table 4. Demographic changes in Latvia: Comparison of the two recession periods
1992-1994
2008-2010
-5,4
-5,3
-1,3
-4,1
1,56
-19%
Life expectancy (years) and its changes (%)
67,5
-3%
Calculated from: Demography 2012. CSB. Pp.10,21,78
-1,1
-4,2
1,47
-14%
72,8
+1%
Population change, total (%)
of which
due to natural movement (%)
due to international migration (%)
Total fertility rate and its changes (%)
Recent recession in comparison with recession during the first half of 1990s is characterized
by slower decline of fertility, slightly faster increase of emigration and rising life expectancy.
Fertility changes and reproduction of population
Fertility decline in all three Baltic countries has followed trajectories of the East European
countries (Figure 3). During the first two phases of fertility changes in the 1990-s decline of
total fertility rate in Latvia was the most expressed.
Figure 3. Total fertility rate in the three Baltic countries and selected East European countries,
1990-2011.
Source: Sakkeus L., A. Puur and L. Rahnu. Presentation; Demographic development in
Estonia: main trends and outlook for the future. University of Latvia conference. Section:
Population Development and Demographic Policy Challenges. Riga, 11-12 February, 2014.
Insignificant rise of total fertility rate during the first decennial of 21st century was stopped by
recession. A question mark is outlined for contemporary 4th phase in fertility changes.
Further fertility changes will depend from recovery of national economies and effectiveness
of social policy. So far 2.1-2.3 children ultimately expected by female from the birth cohorts
of 1960-s and 1970-s is not realised (UN, 1998).
Increase of a mean age at first birth, which started in the Baltic countries since beginning of
1990-s (15-20 years later than in Western and Northern Europe) has contributed to decline of
fertility. Among reasons of postponement of birth are socio-economic conditions (Table 5).
Table 5. Reasons of postponement of birth in 2006 (% people aged 15-39)
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Supportive partner
71
70
80
77
Farthers work
66
77
78
67
Financial situation
57
77
77
74
Housing conditions
69
72
77
71
Costs of children
56
74
69
62
Mothers work
35
46
52
43
Childcare provision
59
78
64
37
Source: Testa M. Chidbearing preferences and family issues in Europe. Special
Eurobarometer 253/Wave 65.1.
EU-25
72
62
60
57
50
49
46
Mothers work in situation with rather high female employment in Baltic countries and Poland
is not considered by respondents as a major reason of postponement of birth. Much more
serious reason is considered „childcare provision”, „supportive partner” and different socioeconomic conditions. But even with elimination of reasons of postponement of birth societies
can not expect significant changes in reproduction of population (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Childbearing intentions EU25 countries. Source; Eurobarometer, 2006.
Childbearing intentions in the Baltic countries like in many other West and East European
nations demonstrate almost simple change of generations. Only in the three countries more
than 2.5 children per women aged 25-39 is supposed to have. Such motivation leads to
conclusion that more effective family and population policy measures have to be undertaken
to improve reproductive behaviour of population.
Decline of fertility, prolongation of life and entrance into retirement age more numerous
cohorts born after WW2 has caused process of population aging, which could continue even
in case of constant fertility on the level existed at the beginning of 21st century (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Actual in 2010 and projected proportion of population 65 years and older in 2050 in
European countries. Source: UN medium and constant variant of population projections
2010.
Moderate increase of fertility and positive net migration balance could clihtly resist a
tendency of population aging, but do not stop it. Growing proportion of population over the
age 65 in all three Baltic countries, like in many other European countries, rise a preasures on
retirement schemes and health care expenditures.
Life expectancy and health
“Cardiovascular revolution“ since 1970-s initiated a new phase of epidemiologic transition.
Several authors (J. Olshansky and B. Ault; R. Rogers and R. Hackenberg) during the 1980-s
suggested to bring in theory fourth phase of epidemiologic transition, which is characterised
by progress in prevention and treatment of heart and circulatory system diseases, which lead
to further increase of life expectancy. However, many exceptions appeared since 1960-s in
health improvement, which caused stagnation of life expectancy for female and decline for
male (Figure 6).
Life expectancy at birth, in years, male
80
75
Belarus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Russian Federation
Slovenia
Sweden
70
65
60
55
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Life expectancy at birth, in years, female
85
80
Belarus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Russian Federation
Slovenia
Sweden
75
70
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
\
Figure 6. Male and female life expectancies at birth in selected North and East European
countries, 1970-2012. Source: WHO Health for all database.
Latvia like many other former Soviet satellite countries missed beginning of cardiovascular
revolution. Only very limited increase in female and decline in male life expectancy appeared
during Soviet era in comparison with almost linear increase of life expectancy in the West and
North European countries.
Situation changed in Baltic countries since the eve of 21st century, when started fourth phase
of epidemiologic transition (Figure 7). During that time decline of circulatory disease
mortality influenced increase of life expectancy in Estonia and Poland in a larger extent than
in Latvia and Lithuania. Russia joined that phase of epidemiologic transition with almost ten
years time lag.
Gains (in years)
Estonia
Gains (in years)
Latvia
Gains (in years)
Lithuania
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
6
5
4
7
E xt e r n a l c a u s e s
6
5
Gains (in years)
Russia
Gains (in years)
Poland
Gains (in years)
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
3
3
3
France
O t h e r d is e a s e s
4
3
2
D ig e s t iv e d is e a s e s
1
0
R e s p ir a t o r y
d is e a s e s
- 1
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-2
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
- 2
C ir c u la t o r y d is e a s e s
- 3
- 4
N e o p la s m s
- 5
- 6
I n f e c t io u s d is e a s e s
- 7
Fr a n c e
E s t o n ai
L ti h u a n ai
Figure 7. Changes in life expectancy at birth caused by mortality increase or reduction from
circulatory diseases and other causes of death in the three Baltic countries, Poland, Russia and
France, 1997-2010 9 (years)
Source: F.Mesle. EAPS Workshop. Tallinn, Sept.2012.
Health expectancies are used to address whether or not longer life is being accompanied by an
increase in the time lived in good or in bad health. In this way they add a dimension of quality
to the quantity of life lived (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life years (HLY) at 50 years of age by sex in
European countries, 2009
Source: EHEMU Country Reports. Health Expectancy in Latvia, Issue 5 – 2012. P.4.
Baltic countries belong to a cluster of CEE countries with low LE and HLY, particularly for
men. Another group of countries with similar LE, but widely ranging HLY, are forming
another cluster. Improvements of health status and increase of life expectancy is envisaged as
an important social goal. For example, in Public Health Strategy for 2011-2017, adopted by
Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia in 5 October 2011, the aim of a public health policy is - a
prolongation of healthy life years and prevention of untimely deaths, while maintaining,
improving and restoring health.
Emigration challenge
Migration is a traditional component, which affect population changes in the Baltic countries.
Soviet period extensive migration policy with typical positive migration balance in the Soviet
Baltics (especially in Estonia and Latvia) in the late 1980-s was changed by new paradigm –
to place constraints on immigration and relay more on native demographic potential. Such
intentions give some results until mid 1990-s.
Fall of an iron curtain and integration to the European Union liberalized free movement of
people and stimulated emigration, which increased radically during economic downfall. A
new paradigm appeared – to set up measures to resist an out-flaw of population (such
measures were limited and not efficient) and to develop incentives to keep closer relations
with new Diaspora and to stimulate return migration.
Characteristic feature of a recent emigration wave from the Baltic countries is destination to
other EU countries (mostly English and German language speaking countries) (see Figure 9).
Imigranti/ Immigrants
7,9%
31,0%
3,3%
57,8%
Emigranti/ Emigrants
4,2%
ES-28/ EU-28
16,6%
EBTA/ EFTA
6,1%
NVS valstis/
CIS countries
73,1%
Citas valstis/
Other countries
Figure 9. Main flows of long-term international migration of population in Latvia, 2013
(per cent). Source: Demography 2014. Collection of Statistical Data. Riga: CSB, 2014. P.106.
The societies of the three Baltic countries consider high emigration not only as a threat, but
also as a potential financial resource to support households and growth of national economies.
By using specially designed programmes they are trying to mobilise financial and intellectual
resources of the Diaspora.
Conclusions
A period, since the three Baltic countries started socio-political and economic transformations
from demographic time frame is covering generations, which are growing up in independent
countries. Current and expected demographic behaviour of those generations will determine
future demographic scenarios. During a life-time of those generations societies faced two
serious economic down-turns - economic crisis at the beginning of 1990s and recent crisis of
2008-2009. Integration of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the European Union in 2004
opened door for new opportunities, including free movement across a national borders.
Population Census 2011 methodology and advanced methods of population statistics
processing have resulted in providing reliable figures of total population change and its
components during a period of fast demographic changes – the first decade of the 21st century.
Nevertheless serious steps toward improvement of accuracy of migration and resident
population registration in the Population Registers should be undertaken.
Historically determined “highway” of demographic transition and new challenges opened to
society caused an unfavourable situation, when countries have to deal with demographic
imbalances (sub-replacement fertility, postponed fourth phase of epidemiologic transition,
population aging, and emigration). Measures aimed to rise fertility in circumstances of limited
resources generally have failed to rise up fertility levels significantly. Population and family
policy and their effectiveness still is a serious challenge at all levels – parliament,
government, non-governmental and societal.
Initiatives to address population aging as an important challenge for sustainability of existing
retirement schemes were recently overtaken by debates, how to deal with problems of largescale wing of emigration, how to strengthen ties with Diaspora and to cause return-migration.
Adjustable immigration, return-migration together with incentives to strengthen
competitiveness of national economies and to reduce regional and social inequalities is a
rising challenge for all three Baltic countries.
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