WWW.IPPR.ORG
MigrationandRural
Economies:
Assessingandaddressingrisks
EconomicsofMigrationWorkingPaper6
byLauraChappell,MariaLatorre,JillRutterandJaideepShah
June2009
©ippr2009
InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch
Challengingideas– Changingpolicy
2
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Contents
Aboutippr...............................................................................................................................3
Abouttheauthors ..................................................................................................................3
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................3
Listofabbreviationsandglossary ..........................................................................................4
Foreword.................................................................................................................................5
Executivesummary.................................................................................................................6
1.Introduction........................................................................................................................9
2.Patternsofmigrationtoruralareas .................................................................................12
3.Migrants’experiencesoflifeandworkinruralareas.......................................................19
4.Migrants’impactsonruraleconomies ............................................................................22
5.Futuretrendsandimplicationsforruraleconomies.........................................................37
6.Conclusionsandrecommendations..................................................................................45
References ............................................................................................................................59
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ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Aboutippr
TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’sleadingprogressivethinktank,producing
cutting-edgeresearchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democraticandsustainableworld.
Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressivedebateandpolicymakingintheUK.Through
ourindependentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendasforchangeandprovidepractical
solutionstochallengesacrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues.
WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureouroutlookisasbroad-basedaspossible,
whileourinternationalandmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextendourpartnerships
andinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusatrulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch.
ippr,30-32SouthamptonStreet,LondonWC2E7RA.Tel:+44(0)2074706100E:[email protected]
www.ippr.org.RegisteredCharityNo.800065
ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinJune2009.©ippr2009
Abouttheauthors
LauraChappellisaResearchFellowatippr.WhileatipprLaurahasauthoredandeditedanumber
ofpublicationsontheeconomicsofmigrationtotheUKandmigrationanddevelopment,bothfor
ipprandfororganisationssuchastheOECDandUNDP.PreviouslyLauraworkedasanODIfellowat
thePacificIslandsForumSecretariatinFijiandfortheLiberalDemocratPolicyandResearchUniton
Treasuryissues.LauraholdsanMScwithDistinctioninDevelopmentEconomicsfromtheSchoolof
OrientalandAfricanStudies,andaBAinPhilosophy,PoliticsandEconomicsfromtheUniversityof
Oxford.
MariaLatorreisaResearcheratippr.Shespecialisesinquantitativeanalysisofsocialpolicyandhas
contributedempiricalanalysistoseveralrecentipprprojects.BeforejoiningipprMariaworkedwiththe
Colombiangovernmentandresearchcentresfocusedontheeconomicdevelopmentofdeveloping
countries,particularlyinLatinAmerica.
JillRutter isaSeniorResearchFellowatipprandleadstheMigration,Equalities,andCitizenship
team’sresearchonmigrantintegrationintheUK.Shehaspublishedextensivelyonallaspectsof
migrationintheUKandabroadwithwellover70books,chapters,andpapersontheissue.Priorto
joiningippr,JilllecturedatLondonMetropolitanUniversityandwasapolicyadviserattheRefugee
Council.
JaideepShah wasaResearchAssistantatippr.Jaideephasanundergraduatedegreefromthe
LondonSchoolofEconomicsandapostgraduatedegreefromOxfordUniversity,andpreviously
workedasaresearchassistantattheCentreoftheStudyforAfricanEconomies,OxfordUniversity.
Acknowledgements
TheauthorsareverygratefulforthethoughtfulcommentsprovidedbyChrisKolekandAnitaGambie
fromtheCommissionforRuralCommunities.AtipprMichaelJohnsonprovidedimportantbackground
research,SarahMulleywasanexcellenteditorandprovidedimportantsteerstotheresearchand
GeorginaKyriacouperformedthefinaleditandproduction.Thepaperwouldalsonothavebeen
possiblewithoutthegenerosityofthepeoplewhogaveuptheirtimetobeinterviewedandtakepart
infocusgroups.Wethankthemverysincerely.Finally,wearegratefultotheEconomicsofMigration
project’ssteeringcommitteewho,asever,providedimportantinsights.
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Foreword:TheEconomicsofMigrationproject
Thisworkingpaperformspartofippr’sEconomicsofMigrationproject.Theprojectaimsto
shapethinkingaroundhowweconceptualisetheeconomicimpactsofmigration,provide
newevidenceabouttheextentandnatureofthoseimpactsintheUK,andprovidenew
insightsastohowpolicymightbestaddressmigrationtomaximiseeconomicbenefit.We
hopethattheprojectwillcontributetoabetter-informedpublicdebateandamoreprepared
policycommunity,betterabletoevaluatemigration’seconomiccontributions,andmanage
themtothebenefitofall.
Thisworkingpaperexaminestheroleofmigrationinruraleconomies.Thissubjectis
importantfortwomainreasons.First,migrationisoftenthoughtofasanurban
phenomenon–andindeed,formostoftheUnitedKingdom’srecenthistorymigrantshave
beenconcentratedinurbanareas.However,morerecentmigrantsfromCentralandEastern
Europehavemovedmuchmorewidelyacrossthecountry–atrendillustratedbythefact
thattheEastofEngland(aregionwithasignificantruraleconomy)hasreceivedmore
migrantsfromnewEuropeanUnionmemberstatesthanLondonsinceMay2004.To
understandthesenewpatternsofmigrationweneednewanalysis.Wecannotsimplyassume
theeffectswillbethesameasthosearisingfromprevious,morepredominantlyurban,
migration.
Second,theUK’sruraleconomiesareavitalpartofournationaleconomy.Indeed,
promotingruraleconomicsuccessandtacklingruraldisadvantagehasbeenmadea
governmentpriority,promotedbytheCommissionforRuralCommunities.However,whileit
isbecomingincreasinglyclearthatmigrationisaffectingruraleconomies,detailsoftheinterrelationshiparemuchlessclear.
Anumberofquestionsarise.Whatrolesdomigrantsplayinruraleconomies?What
contributionsdotheymake?Whatproblemsmightariseasaresultofmigration?Andwhat
risksmighttherebeifmigrationpatternsweretochange?
Withmigrationtoruralareasincreasing,itisvitalthatthesequestionsareaddressedto
ensurerural,andthereforenational,economicsuccess.
Thispapercannotanddoesnotaimtoprovideafullpictureofallthewaysinwhich
migrationisaffectingtheUK’sruraleconomies.However,webelieveitmakesanimportant
contributionbyreviewingandanalysingmigration-relatedriskstoruraleconomies,aswellas
policiesthatcouldminimisethoserisks.Assuch,itshouldoffernewinsightstohelp
understandandmanagemigrationtoruralareasinordertomaximisebenefitsforall.
WearegratefultothefundersoftheEconomicsofMigrationproject:BusinessforNew
Europe,theCommissionforRuralCommunities,theTradesUnionCongressandtheUK
BorderAgency(HomeOffice).
Theviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseof
theprojectfunders.
SarahMulley
TimFinch
ProjectCoordinator
HeadofMigration,EqualitiesandCitizenshipTeam
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Glossaryandlistofabbreviations
A8
TheeightCentralandEasternEuropeancountriesthatjoinedtheEuropean
UnioninMay2004(Poland,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,
Lithuania,SlovakiaandSlovenia)
A2
BulgariaandRomania,whichjoinedtheEuropeanUnioninJanuary2007
CRC
CommissionforRuralCommunities
DCLG
DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment
DEFRA
DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs
EEA
EuropeanEconomicArea
GLA
Gangmasters’LicencingAuthority
IDeA
ImprovementandDevelopmentAgency
LFS
LabourForceSurvey
NINO
NationalInsuranceNumber
ONS
OfficeforNationalStatistics
SAWS
SeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme
SBS
SectorBasedScheme
TUC
TradesUnionCongress
WRS
WorkerRegistrationScheme
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Executivesummary
MigrationtoandfromtheUKhaschangeddistinctivelyoverthelastdecade,withincreased
immigrationandemigration.Migratorymovementshavealsobecomemorediverse.Migrants
havebeencomingfrommoreplacesthaneverbefore,andarefoundacrossasimilarly
diversevarietyoflocationsandsectorswithintheUK.Importantly,thisincludesmore
migrationtoruralareas,particularlysincetheexpansionoftheEuropeanUnionin2004.
Theexpansionofmigrationtoruralareashashadarangeofimpactsonruraleconomies.
Migrantshavemadesignificanteconomiccontributions:fillingvacanciesandskillsgapsand
promotingjobcreationandproductivity.Migrantshavebeenparticularlyimportantin
supportingsomekeysectorsincludingagriculture,foodprocessingandhospitality.
Futuretrends
ThecurrentglobalrecessionappearstohavethepotentialtoradicallyreshapeboththeUK’s
economicstructureandperformance,andpatternsofmigration.Althoughmostofthe
researchforthispaperwascarriedoutbeforetheimpactsofthecurrentrecessionhadbeen
widelyfelt,wehavebeenabletoconsiderthelikelyimpactsofrecessiononmigrationand
ruraleconomiesaspartofourfuturesanalysis,aswellasconsideringlonger-termtrendsand
risks.
Ourworksuggeststhatintheshortterm(thenextonetotwoyears–so,duringthecurrent
recession)suppliesofmigrantlabourtoruralareaslooklikelytofall.However,demandfor
thislabourisalsoexpectedtodropduringtherecessionsoanyshortagesarenotlikelytobe
chronic(thoughtherewillbesectoralandgeographicvariationswithinthispicture).Further,
becausemigrationrespondstoeconomicconditionsitcanhelpbusinessesexpandduring
periodsofgrowth,butitprovidesflexibilityduringadownturn.
Inthemediumterm(nexttwotofiveyears)astheUKandruraleconomiesrecover,demand
formigrantlabourisexpectedtoriseinruralareas,whileatthesamethereisariskthat
migrantlabouravailabilitywillfall.Thisdisjunctionseemslikelyfortworeasons.First,
migrationisnotonlydrivenbyeconomicfactors.Otherfactorsthatareimportantto
migrants,suchastheavailabilityofaffordablehousing,couldmakeruralareaslessattractive.
Second,immigrationpoliciesthatarenotflexibleenoughtorespondtotheneedsofthe
economy,includingruralareas,maypreventmigrantlaboursupplyfrommeetingdemand.If
migrantsaretocontinuetomaketheimportantcontributiontoruraleconomiesthatwe
haveidentified,policiesmustbepursuedtoreducethelikelihoodofthiskindofmismatch.
Recommendations
Ourkeyrecommendationsforpolicymeasuresthatcouldhelpruraleconomiesmaximisethe
benefitsofmigrationareasfollows:
•Continuetofacilitatethemovementofagriculturalworkers
Migrantworkersarecrucialtosomepartsoftheagriculturalsector.TheUK’snewmanaged
migrationsystemmustincorporatearouteforthosemigrantstocontinuetocometoworkin
theUK.WerecommendthistaketheformofanewversionoftheSeasonalAgricultural
WorkersScheme(SAWS),whichshouldbeincorporatedunderTier3ofthepoints-based
system,andopenedtonon-EUmigrants.
Theagriculturalsectorhassufferedfromlabourshortages,particularlyforseasonalwork,for
someyears.ThereappearstoberelativelylittlescopeforincreasingthenumbersofUK-(and
evenEU-)bornworkerscomingintothesector.Thepotentialforraisingpayandimproving
conditionstomaketheworkmoreattractiveisalsolimited.Bringinginmigrantworkersfrom
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outsidetheEUonatemporarybasistoundertakethesetaskshasworkedwellinthepast
andweseenojustificationforabolishingtheschemewithoutreplacingitwithanalternative
entryrouteforlow-skilledlabourforthesector.Itislikelythatcertainpartsofthe
agriculturalsector(inparticularintensivehorticulture)wouldbeveryhardhitwerethis
labournotavailableinthefuture,anduncertaintyaboutthisislimitingthesuccessofthe
sectorevennow.
•Makeamoreconcertedefforttodevelopaffordableandhighqualityhousinginrural
areas
Theavailabilityofaffordableruralhousing,bothforlocalpeopleandformigrantworkers,is
criticaltoensuringasustainablesupplyofworkersforruraleconomies.Therelativelyhigh
costofaccommodationwashighlightedasakeyfactorthatmightdrivemigrantworkersout
ofruralareas.Thisisaparticularissueforseasonal,temporaryandlow-paidmigrants.
Government,housingassociations,employersandtheNationalHousingFederationshould
worktogethertodevelopmoreaffordableandbetterqualityhousing(andinparticular
rentedhousing)forpeople,includingmigrantworkers,inruralareas,andimproveprovision
fortransientmigrantworkers.
•Reviewtheroleofrecruitmentagencies
Whilemigrantworkersaregenerallyhappytoworkthroughanagencyinordertoenterthe
labourmarket,inthelongertermtheywantdirectemployment,andtheyhighlightthisasa
keypriorityintheirdecisionsaroundwheretoliveandwork.
WerecommendthattheGovernmenttakeacloselookattherolethatrecruitmentagencies
playthroughahigh-level,comprehensivereviewthatexaminesboththecostsandbenefits
thatareassociatedwiththisapproach.Theeffectsonmigrantworkeravailabilityinrural
areas(andassociatedrisks)shouldbeanimportantpartoftheremitofthisreview.
•ExtendtheremitoftheGangmastersLicensingAuthority(GLA)tocoverallsectors
characterisedbyvulnerableemployment
Adifferentsetofrisksariseinrelationtothesmallgroupofagenciesthatareoperating
outsidethelaw.PartlyinresponsetothetragedyoftheChinesecockle-pickersin
MorecambeBay,theGovernmentsetuptheGangmastersLicensingAuthority(GLA)butat
presenttheGLAonlyregulateslabourprovidersinagriculture,forestry,horticulture,shellfish
gatheringandfoodprocessingandpackaging.Werecommendthatitsremitbeextendedto
coverallsectorscharacterisedbyvulnerableemployment–asinvestigatedandsetoutby
theTradesUnionCongressCommissiononVulnerableEmployment.
Aswellassafeguardingtherightsofmigrantworkers,andprotectinglegitimateagencies
fromunfaircompetitionbasedonexploitation,thiswouldalsoreducetherisksfacingrural
economiesbyimprovingthesupplyandlong-termsustainabilityofmigrantlabour.Bringing
moresectorsundertheremitoftheGLAalsoreducestheriskthatruraleconomieswillcome
todependonlabourprovidedbyagenciesorgangmasterswhobreakthelaw.
• Ensuremigrationissuesareontheagendaathigh-profileruralevents
Thereismuchtobegainedfromfurtherthoughtandexaminationoftheseissues.The
impactsofmigrationonruraleconomiesandtherisksassociatedwithchangingmigrant
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workeravailabilityshouldbeontheagendaathigh-profileeventssuchastheongoing‘rural
summits’onunlockingthepotentialofruraleconomies.
• Embedmigrationconsiderationsinongoingplanningandpolicymakingprocesses
Werecommendthatlocalandregionalgovernmentsensurethatissuesaroundmigration,risk
andruraleconomicperformanceareincorporatedintoLocalAuthorityEconomicAssessments
andIntegratedRegionalStrategies.Inmanycasesthiswillneedtobeprecededbyan
assessmentoftheextenttowhichrisksassociatedwithmigrantworkeravailabilityarean
issuefortheperformanceofparticularrural(andindeedurban)economiesandsectors.
Doingsowouldhelptodevelopthethinkingpresentedhere,generatemorenuanced
analysesatlocalandsectorallevels,andensurethatspecificandappropriateregionaland
localstrategiesandresponsescanbedeveloped.
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1.Introduction
MigrationischangingthefaceoftheUK.WhilehistoricallytheUKhasoftenbeenacountry
ofnetemigration,inrecentyearsastrongeconomyandtheexpansionoftheEuropean
Unionhasledtoasubstantialriseinthenumbersofmigrantscomingheretolive,whether
permanentlyortemporarily(Chappelletal 2008).
Anincreaseinthenumbersofmigrantsarrivingisnottheonlychangethatistakingplace,
however.Migrantsarearrivingfromawiderrangeofcountries,andsettlinginagreater
diversityofplacesacrosstheUKthantheywerebefore(Kyambi2005)–inparticular,the
numberssettlingandworkinginruralareashaveincreasedsubstantiallyinrecentyears.
Ruraleconomiesareanimportantpartofthenationaleconomyalready,andunlockingtheir
potentialfurtherbyensuringthattheycanmaximisethebenefitsofmigrationwouldbe
positiveforpeopleinbothurbanandruralcommunities.
Researchaims
Thispaperexaminestheimplicationsofincreasingmigrationtoruralareas,lookingin
particularattheeconomicsofthisphenomenon.Weexploretherolesmigrantsareplaying,
theeconomicimpactsofmigrationonexistingpopulationsandbusinesses,andwhatfuture
migratorytrendsmightbe.Inparticular,weconsiderwhetherrecentmigrationtoruralBritain
hasledtoanyrisksforruraleconomies;andifso,howtheseriskscanbemanaged.
Thepaperaddressesthefollowingfourresearchquestions:
•WhatisthescaleandnatureofmigrationtoruralareasoftheUK?
•Whateconomicimpactsismigrationcurrentlyhavingonruraleconomies?
•Howismigrationtoruralareaslikelytochangeinthefutureandwhatbenefitsand
risksmightthisbring?
•Whatmeasuresareneededtorespondtolikelyfuturetrends,toensurethebest
possibleoutcomes?
Whatdefinesruraleconomies,andwhydotheymeritspecificanalysis?
Since2004,ruralareasinEnglandandWaleshavebeenofficiallydefinedaccordingtoa
classificationbasedonpopulationdensity(CommissionforRuralCommunities2007b).
Sparsepopulationisadefiningfeatureofruralareas,andalsohassignificantimplicationsfor
ruraleconomies.Itisalsoimportanttonotethatruraleconomiesarehighlyvaried–we
shouldthinkof‘ruraleconomies’not‘theruraleconomy’.
Ruraleconomiesareoftenbasedondifferentsectorsandindustriesthanurbaneconomies.
Butalthoughruraleconomieshavesomeparticularfeatures,manyofthechallengesthey
facearesharedwithBritain’surbaneconomies.
Ruraleconomiesalsofaceparticularchallengesthatspringdirectlyfromtheirrural
characteristics,andtheyhavespecificneedsthatrequireconsiderationbypolicymakers.
Sparsepopulationcanmeanthatemployersfacealessflexiblelabourforce,particularlyif
travelcostsarehigh–thiscanmeanthatvacanciesarehardtofill,andmayinhibit
enterpriseandinnovation.Problemswithaccesstopublicservicesincludingeducationand
traininghaveimplicationsfortheskillsandqualificationsoftheruralworkforce,andcanlead
toskillsgaps.Andfirmsmaysufferdirectlyfromlimitedaccesstoinfrastructure,whichmay
influencetheirchoiceofproductionmodels.
Itisimportanttoconsiderruraleconomiesaspartofanystudyoftheeconomicsof
migrationintheUK.Inrecentyearsmigrationhasincreasedmorerapidlyinruralareasthan
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inurbanareas–thischangeisworthyofstudy,andhasbroughtwithitparticularbenefits
andchallengesinruralareas.Also,theparticularcharacteristicsandchallengesofrural
economiesmeanthattheimpactsofmigrationaredifferentfromurbanareas.
Methodology
Thispaperusesamixedmethodologyofquantitativeandqualitativetools,including:
•Literaturereview
•Analysisofnationalpopulationandeconomicdatasets
•SurveyofPolishmigrantslivinginruralareas
•Twofocusgroupinterviewswithruralmigrants
•Keyinformantinterviewswithemployers,industryspokespersonsandpolicymakers.
Datasets
TomapthescaleandnatureofruralmigrationweuseddatafromtheCensus,theLabour
ForceSurvey(LFS),theWorkersRegistrationScheme(WRS)datasetandtheNational
InsuranceNumber(NINO)dataset.Theserepresentthebestquantitativedatacurrently
availableonruralmigrants,butthereareanumberofinherentproblemswiththisdata,an
issueweexaminelaterinthisreport.Importantly,theLFSdoesnotincludesomegroupsof
people,includingthoselivinginbusinessaddressessuchasfarmsandhotelsandnon-private
communalaccommodation.
Survey
WecommissionedtheCentreforResearchonNationalism,EthnicityandMulticulturalism,
basedattheUniversityofSurreyandRoehamptonUniversity,toundertakeasurveyof500
Polishmigrants,ofwhom300werelivinginruralareas.Thesurveycollecteddataabout:
•Householdcompositionandotherdemographicdata
•Educationalandemploymentprofiles
•ReasonsformigrationtotheUKandintentionsforreturnandremigration
•ContactwithpublicservicesintheUK.
ThesurveywasconductedinPolish.Afteraninitialpilot,300face-to-faceinterviewswere
conductedatfivedifferentrurallocationsinEngland(anadditional200interviewswere
conductedinurbanlocationstoactasacomparison),startinginMay2008.Interviewees
wererecruitedinlocationsfrequentedbyPolishmigrantworkers:workplaces,Polish
groceries,barsandRomanCatholicchurches.Theselectionofintervieweeswaspurposive
anddesignedtoreflectthe60:40maletofemalegenderbalanceofPolishmigrantintheUK
thatisindicatedinWRSdata(Pollardetal 2008).
Focusgroupsandkeyinformants
TwofocusgroupinterviewswerecarriedoutinOctobertoNovember2008withmigrants
workingintheagricultureandfoodprocessingsectorandthehospitalitysector(bothof
whichareimportanttoruraleconomies).Theintervieweescomprisedabalanceofmenand
womenanddifferentcountriesoforigin,includingPortugal,Poland,Latvia,Lithuania,Brazil
andIraq.TheagriculturefocusgroupwasconductedinEnglish,andtwointerpreters(Polish
andPortuguesespeaking)wereusedforthehospitalitysectorfocusgroup.
Althoughmostoftheresearchforthispaperwascarriedoutbeforetheimpactsofthe
currentrecessionhadbeenwidelyfelt,wehavebeenabletoconsiderthelikelyimpactsof
recessiononmigrationandruraleconomiesaspartofourfuturesanalysis(seeSection5).
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ThefocusoftheresearchisontheUKasawhole,asmostofthedataisavailableataUKwidelevel.However,someofthepolicyrecommendationsarespecifictoEngland,asa
numberofkeyactorsinthisarea(suchastheCommissionforRuralCommunities[CRC])
havemandatesthatcoverEnglandonly.Wedidnotcomeacrossanysignificantreasonsfor
thinkingtrendsinScotland,WalesandNorthernIrelandweresubstantiallydifferenttothose
affectingEngland.However,thereareobviouslygeographicaldifferencesbetweendifferent
areas,whichwetrytoaddressbyprovidingsectorallyandgeographicallyspecificanalysis
whererelevant.
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2.Patternsofmigrationtoruralareas
ChangingmigrationtoandfromtheUK
MigrationintheUKishighlycomplex,withalongandvariedhistory.WhiletheUKhas
recentlyexperiencedhighlevelsofnetimmigration,untilthe1980stheUKwasoftena
countryofnetemigration,andinbothperiodssubstantialnumbersofpeoplehavemovedin
bothdirectionsacrossourborders.TheseoverallmigrationtrendsareshowninFigure1.
Figure1.Total
migrationtoand
fromtheUK,
1975–2007
500
400
300
200
Thousands
Thousands
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
-500
19
Source:International
PassengerSurvey,
OfficeforNational
Statistics
600
Inflow
Outflow
Balance
Inthelastdecadeorso,migrationhasincreasedinscalesignificantlyrightacrosstheworld
(InternationalOrganisationforMigration2008).Thishasresultedinanincreaseinboth
immigrationtoandemigrationfromBritain,withtherecentriseinimmigrationtakingplace
againstthebackdropof(untilrecently)astrongUKeconomy.TheexpansionoftheEU,with
12newmemberstatessince2004,hasalsoplayedapart.Withsomerestrictions,theUK
openeditsbordersandlabourmarketstocitizensofthesecountries.
Aswellasincreasingthenumbersofmigrants,this‘globalmarket’forlabour,andtheUK’s
placeattheheartofit,hasledtoanincreasingdiversityofmigrants–bothintermsofthe
countriestheycomefromandthelocationstheymoveto(Kyambi2005).Migrationnow
affectsthewholeoftheUKinawaythatithasnotbefore.
Changingmigrationpatternsinruralareas
ThesechangingtrendsinUK-widemigrationhavehadimportantimplicationsforruralareas.
Inparticular,thenumbersofmigrantslivingandworkinginruralareashavebeenrising,in
somecasesquitedramatically.ThisisnottosaythatruralBritainhadnotexperienced
migrationbeforethelastdecade–internationalmigrantshavealwayshadapresenceinthe
Britishcountryside,withsomelongsettledforeign-borncommunitiesinruralareas–butin
manycasestheyhavenotbeenveryvisible.Duringthelast10years,however,theUKhas
seensubstantiallyincreasedinternationalmigrationtoruralareas.
Table1showstheforeign-bornpopulationsofruralandurbanlocalauthorities.Whilerural
areasstillhavealowerforeign-bornpopulationsharethanotherpartsoftheUK,itisnot
muchlower.WhilethemosturbanisedareasoftheUK(‘majorurban’)havesignificantly
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Table1.Foreign-bornpopulationsbyrural/urbanlocalauthorityclassification
DEFRARural/urbanlocal
Foreign-bornpopulationas%of
NewEUmemberstatemigrantsas%
authorityclassification
totalpopulation,2006
oftotalpopulation,2007
Majorurban
18.2
1.1
Largeurban
6.9
0.6
Otherurban
8.1
1.0
Significantrural
5.9
0.8
Rural50
4.3
0.7
Rural80
4.2
0.9
Thecategoriesarelistedinorder,fromthemostdenselypopulated(‘majorurban’)totheleast(‘rural80’)
Sources:ipprcalculations,ONSmid-yearpopulationestimatesbylocalauthority2006andPollardetal (2008)
highernumbersofforeign-bornresidents,thedifferencebetweentheothertwourban
categoriesandtheruralcategoriesisnotsubstantial.
Table1alsoshowstheproportionsofmigrantsfromnewEUmemberstatesineachtypeof
area,providingsomeideaofhowthetrendhasbeenchangingsince2004,whenthecitizens
ofthesecountriesgainedfreeaccesstoUKlabourmarkets.Whatisstrikingishowsimilar
theproportionsofnewEUmigrantsareacrosseachtypeofarea.‘Largeurban’areasactually
havethelowestproportionsofnewEUmigrants,withgreaterproportionsineachkindof
ruralarea.Table1demonstratesthatnewEUmigrantsarejustasmuchafeatureofrurallife
andruraleconomiesastheyareofurbanones.
Figure2showsgraphicallythat,althoughmanymigrantsareconcentratedinurbanareas,
manyrurallocalauthoritiesalsohaveasignificantpercentageofforeign-bornresidents.
Figure2:Place
ofresidenceof
England’s
foreign-born
population,by
localauthority
Source:ONSmidyearpopulation
estimatesandippr
calculations
Percentageof
foreign-bornby
localauthority,
2006
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Figure3.
Population
estimatesof
migrantsfrom
theEU’snew
membersstates,
bylocal
authority
district,2007
Source:Pollardetal
2008
Figure3showsthesettlementpatternsofmigrantsfromtheEU’snewmemberstatesby
localauthoritydistrict.ThisshowstheconcentrationsofnewEUmigrantsacrosstheUK,
notablyinsomeruralareas,andhighlightsthedifferentgeographicalspreadofthisgroupof
(mostlyrecent)migrants.Areaswhereintensivehorticultureandfoodprocessingarelocated
–theEastofScotland,HerefordshireandtheFens–havehighpopulationsofmigrantsfrom
theEU’snewmemberstates.Thisgivesasenseoftheimpactsthatthesemigrantsmaybe
havingonparticularsectors–atopicwereturntoinSection4.
Countriesoforigin
AswellasbeingincreasinglyspreadacrosstheUK,theUK’sforeign-bornpopulationisalso
increasinglydiverseintermsoftheirnationalorigin(Sriskandarajahetal 2007).Table2
presentsdataonthesizeandgrowthofthe10largestforeign-borngroupsresidentinthe
UKin2007.
Table3showsthesameinformationforthe10largestmigrantgroupsintheUK’sruralareas.
15
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Table2.The10largestgroupsofforeign-bornresidentsintheUK,bycountryofbirth,2007
Rank*
Country
%oftheUK’stotal
%growthincountry-of-birth
foreign-bornpopulation
groupin10years**
1
India
9.8%
46%
2
Ireland
6.8%
-23%
3
Poland
6.3%
575%
4
Pakistan
6.1%
77%
5
Germany
4.2%
7%
6
SouthAfrica
3.1%
119%
7
Bangladesh
3.1%
26%
8
UnitedStates
3.0%
39%
9
ChinaandHongKong
2.7%
123%
10
Jamaica
2.7%
25%
Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations
*Usingdatafromallquarters,2007.**BetweenQ41997andQ42007
Table3.The10largestgroupsofforeign-bornresidentsinUKruralareas,bycountryofbirth,2007
Rank*
Country
%ofruralareas’total
foreign-bornpopulation
1
Ireland
8.5%
2
India
8.3%
3
Poland
8.1%
4
Pakistan
5.4%
5
SouthAfrica
4.9%
6
Germany
3.8%
7
UnitedStates
3.5%
8
Australia
3.0%
9
Zimbabwe
2.8%
10
Philippines
2.8%
Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations
*Usingdatafromallquarters,2007;**BetweenQ41997andQ42007
%growthincountry-of-birth
groupin10years**
-14.8%
48.5%
983.1%
39.6%
48.1%
16.3%
83.0%
24.1%
278.1%
508.1%
Wecanseefromthesetablesthatverysimilarcountriesarerepresentedamongmigrantsin
theUKasawholeandthoselivinginruralareas.TheincreaseinPolishmigrantslivingin
ruralareas,however,hasbeenmuchmoresubstantialthaninurbanareas,andasaresult
PolesnowconstitutealargerproportionofmigrantsinruralareasthanacrosstheUKasa
whole.
Inordertogiveafullersenseofruralmigrants’regionsoforiginbeyondthetop10
countries,whichrepresentonlyabouthalfofallmigrantsresidinginruralBritain,Table4
showstheregionsoforiginofallmigrantsinruralareas.Thisshowsthatbysomesubstantial
marginthelargestgroupofmigrantsinruralareascomesfromthethe15countriesthat
weremembersoftheEUbeforethe2004expansion(the‘EU15’),butthefastestgrowing
groupismigrantsfromthenewEUmemberstates.
Routesofentryofruralmigrants
16
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Table4:TheUK’sruralmigrantsbyregionofbirth,2007
Rank*
Worldregion
%ofruralareas’total
foreign-bornpopulation
1
EU15
27%
2
Indiansub-continent
16%
3
Sub-SaharanAfrica
15%
4
OtherAsia
12%
5
NewEUmemberstates
10%
6
America
8%
7
OtherEurope
5%
=8
AustraliaandthePacific
4%
=8
MiddleEast
4%
Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations
*Usingdatafromallquarters,2007;**betweenQ41997andQ42007
%growthinregionofbirthgroup
in10years**
-3%
57%
66%
109%
370%
20%
129%
23%
130%
Itisimportanttoalsoanalysethetermsofentryofmigrants–thegroundsunderwhichthey
arepermittedtoentertheUKandthereforetheroutetheytake.Residencystatuscanaffect
aperson’saspirationsandentitlements(forexample,asylumseekersarenotentitledto
work),andthereforetheirimpactsonthelocaleconomy.Migrants’residencystatusalso
affectstheirabilitytoaccessbenefits,housingandotherpublicservices.
TherearesevenmainroutesofentryintotheUK,whichareoutlinedbelowwithestimatesof
theextenttowhichmigrantsinruralareasfallundereachgroup.Notethatwecannottell
definitivelyhowmanyofeachtypeliveinruralareasbecausethemaindatasourcesthat
collectdataontermsofentrydonotcollectplaceofresidence,andviceversaforthosethat
collectdataonplaceofresidence.
1.AsEUandEEAmigrants
CitizensofthemajorityofcountriesintheEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)1 andSwitzerland
arepermittedtoliveandworkintheUKfreely.TheexceptionarethosefromtheEU’snew
memberstates,mostofwhomfacesomerestriction:nationalsfrommostofthecountries
thatjoinedtheEUinMay20042 havetoenrolontheWorkersRegistrationScheme(WRS),
unlesstheyareregisteredasself-employed.NationalsofRomaniaandBulgaria,bothof
whichjoinedtheEUinJanuary2007,havemorerestrictedrights3.Migrantswhoentervia
theirstatusasbeingfromtheEEAorSwitzerlandarethelargestmigrantgroupintheUK,
andarealsothelargestmigrantgroupinruralareas.
2.Viathepoints-basedsystem
1.TheEEAconsistsoftheEUstates,Iceland,LiechtensteinandNorway
2.TheCzechRepublic,Estonia,Hungary,Latvia,Lithuania,Poland,SlovakiaandSlovenia
3.RomaniansandBulgarianscanworklegallyintheUKiftheyareself-employedorareontheSeasonal
AgriculturalWorkersSchemeortheSector-BasedScheme,whichhavebeenexclusivelyreservedfor
RomanianandBulgariannationalssinceJanuary2008.TheycanalsoworkintheUKiftheyhaveawork
permitorareastudent(theselattertworoutesareopentonationalsofothercountriesoutsidetheEUas
wellandarediscussedingreaterdetaillaterinthissection).AllBulgarianandRomaniannationalswho
haveworkedlegallyintheUKfor12months,however,gainEuropeanEconomicArea(EEA)Worker
StatusandhavefullaccesstotheUKlabourmarket.
17
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
EntrytotheUKviathepoints-basedsystemisforlabour-relatedmigrationfromoutsidethe
EU.Thissystemisbasedaroundfivetiers:
•TierOne–forhighly-skilledmigrants.Thisgroupcancomeastheywish,without
requiringapriorjoboffer.Theyareseenashavingimportantskills(andsometimes
financialresources)thatwillboostproductivityandtheUKeconomy.
•TierTwo–forskilledworkerswithajoboffer.Thisgroupareexpectedtofillgapsin
theUKlabourmarket.
•TierThree–low-skilledtemporaryworkers.TheGovernmenthasannouncedthatit
doesnotintendtoopenupthistierinthenearfuture,onthegroundsthatthereare
nounskilledgapsthatcannotbefilledwithUKandEEAnationals.
•TierFour–students.
•TierFive–youthmobilityandotherschemeswheretheaimofworkingintheUKis
notprimarilyeconomic(forexample,workingholiday-makers).
Thenumberofentrantsviathepoints-basedsystemissubstantial.In2007,some82,300
peoplewithworkpermitsandotherworkvisaholders(theprecursorstothepoints-based
system)cametotheUKfromoutsidetheEU,withmajorcountriesoforiginincludingthe
US,Canada,SouthAfrica,IndiaandPakistan(HomeOffice2008c).Mostwererelatively
highlyskilled,giventhattheGovernmenthaskeptTier3(whichmanagestemporary
migrationintolowerskilledjobs)closed.
Skilledmigrantswhohavecometoruralareasviathepoints-basedsystemhavejobsina
widevarietyofareasincludingtheNHS,thesocialcaresectorandspecialistsectorssuchas
engineeringinCumbria(Rutterforthcoming).Newmigrantsareparticularlybeingsoughtin
anumberofrolesimportanttoruraleconomies,includingveterinaries,engineers,chefsand
sheepshearers(HomeOffice2008d).
3.Asylumseekersandrefugees
ThisgroupincludesthosemovingtotheUKinsearchofrefugefrompersecution.23,430
asylumapplicationswerelodgedintheUKin2007.Ofthoseasylumseekerswhoreceived
aninitialdecisionontheirasylumapplicationsin2007,16percentweregrantedrefugee
status,withanother11percentgrantedhumanitarianprotectionordiscretionaryleaveto
remainintheUK,meaningthatsome73percentwererefused(HomeOffice2008b).While
someofthoserefusedasylumleavetheUKorareremoved,manyremainandmakeupa
significantcomponentoftheUK’sirregularmigrantpopulation.Since2002,themain
countriesoforiginofasylum-seekershaveincludedtheDemocraticRepublicofCongo,
Eritrea,Somalia,Zimbabwe,TurkeyandAfghanistan.
Priorto1997mostasylumseekerswerehousedinLondon.Sincethen,however,increasing
proportionshavebeen‘dispersed’toaccommodationelsewhereintheUK.Onthewholethis
hasnotbeenmovementtoruralareas,asthefocushasbeenon‘clusterareas,’wherebynew
arrivalsaresenttoplacesthatalreadyhaveasignificantpopulationofasylum-seekers.
However,ipprhasencounteredrefugeeswhohadsuccessfullysettledinruralareas,for
example,KosovarsinruralCumbria(RutterandLatorreforthcoming).
4.Familyreunion
Some42,200spouses,fiancé(e)sandcivilpartnerswereadmittedtotheUKin2007(Home
Office2008c),tolivewithfamilymembers.ThetopcountriesoforiginincludePakistan,
India,Bangladesh,USandThailand.Thesemigrantssettlewiththeirfamiliesindifferent
partsoftheUK.However,thereislikelytobeatendencytowardsurbansettlement,given
18
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
thatmanymarriagesaretomembersoftheUK’sexistingethnicminoritygroups,whohave
tendedtosettlepredominantlyinurbanareas.
5.Overseasstudents
HomeOfficestatisticssuggestthatin2007some358,000overseasstudentsenteredtheUK
fromoutsidetheEU(HomeOffice2008c)tostudyinuniversities,privateEnglishlanguage
collegesandfurthereducationcolleges.Theyarepotentiallyimportanttoruraleconomies
becauseoverseasstudentsadmittedforcoursesthatlastmorethansixmonthsgenerally
havetherighttoworkforupto20hoursperweekduringtermtime,andfulltimeduring
vacations;theirdependentsmayalsowork.In2007themaincountriesoforiginofoverseas
studentswereChina,Russia,JapanandtheUnitedStates.
Overseasstudentnumbershaveincreasedslowlyoverthelast10years,ashavethenumbers
ofoverseasstudentswhohavesettledintheenvironsofruraluniversitycampuses.Although
theproportionofoverseasstudentsvariesfromuniversitytouniversity,thereappeartobe
sufficientnumbersofforeignstudentsinruralareastobeaffectingthecompositionofthose
areas.Forexample,theoverseas-bornpopulationoflocalauthoritieswithuniversity
campusesandclassifiedas‘significantrural’byDEFRAwas7.3percentin2006,andfor
thosewithoutcampusesitwas5percent.
6.Irregularmigrants
Relativelylittleisknownaboutirregularmigrants,butwedoknowthatthisgroupcomprises
mostlyvisaandasylumover-stayers,aswellassmallernumbersof‘clandestineentrants’–
peoplewhocrosstheUKborderillegally(InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch2006).
ResearchcommissionedbytheHomeOfficeestimatedtheirregularmigrantpopulationas
being310,000–530,000personsin2001(Pinkertonetal 2004),andrecentworkfromthe
LondonSchoolofEconomicssuggeststhattheremightnowbearound725,000(Gordonet
al 2009).Inotherresearchipprencounteredanumberofirregularmigrantswhowere
workinginruralareas,mostlyasagriculturalworkersbutsometimesinfoodprocessingor
othermanufacturingindustries(RutterandLatorreforthcoming).However,theirregular
migrantswemetwerenotlivinginruralareas.Theybasedthemselvesinatownorcity,but
weretransportedtoruralareasforwork,oftenbylabourproviders4.
7.ReturningBritishnationals
ThelastgroupofmigrantscomingtotheUKisreturningBritishnationals(Sriskandarajah
andDrew2006),someofwhommovetoruralareas.Forexample,asubstantialproportion
ofGerman-bornpeopleinbothruralandurbanareasarelikelytobechildrenofBritish
militarypersonnel,whothoughborninGermanyhavebeenBritishcitizensfrombirth.
4.Thisisnottosaythattherearenotirregularmigrantslivinginruralareas,simplythatwedidnot
comeacrosstheminthecourseofourqualitativeresearch.Itmaybethatthiswassimplychance,orthat
theseworkersareparticularlymarginalisedandunlikelytobepickedupinresearch.
19
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
3.Migrants’experiencesoflifeandworkinruralareas
Reasonsformigrationtoruralareas
Employmentopportunitiesandgreaterearningspotentialwerethekeypullfactorsthathad
broughtalmostallofthoseweinterviewedtotheUK.
‘Icametogetabetterlifeandworkconditions.InPortugalweworkveryhard
butdon’tearnthesamemoney.‘(Hospitalitysectorworker)
Migrationhasoftenbeenseenasanurbanissue,butsomemigrantsweinterviewedhad
moveddirectlytoruralareasonarrivalintheUKorafterafewdays.Lessoften,ruralareas
wereplacesofonwardmigrationafteraperiodofresidenceelsewhereintheUK.Some
migrantsfromPolandforexampleweremakingspecificdecisionstoliveinthecountryside.
Figure4showsthatsome19percentmovedtothecountrysidetobenearfriendsand
familyand6percentbecausetheyspecificallywantedtoliveinaruralarea.
Figure4:Reasons
givenby300
Polishmigrants
formigrationtoa
ruralarea,2008
Source:ipprpolling
data
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Recruited by employment agency Wanted to join friends and family
to work in rural area
Found work in rural area
Wanted to live in country side
Therewerealsopullfactorsthatwerespecifictoparticularplaces.Akeensailorfrom
PortugalmadethedecisiontomovetotheIsleofWighttocontinuehishobby.Formigrants
livingintheEastofEngland,theproximityofStanstedandLutonwasamajorattractionas
cheapflightsfromtheseairportsenabledthemtomakefrequentvisitshome.
Lifeinruralareas
Almostallmigrantsweinterviewedweregenerallyhappywithwheretheywereliving,with
thoseinruralareashighlightinganumberofaspectsofrurallifeasbeingattractive,suchas
thenaturalbeauty,andpeaceandquiet.Moregenerally,ourinterviewswithPoleswholived
acrosstheUKandwhohadnowreturnedtoPolandrevealedthattheysawtheirexperiences
intheUKasbeingbetteroratleastasgoodastheyexpected.Just18percentsaidthey
felttheirexperiencesintheUKhadbeenworsethanexpected,with70percentof
respondentssayingthattheirexperienceshadbeenbetterorasgoodasexpected.
Ourintervieweeshadverydiverseexperiencesoftheirinitialhousing.Thosewhohadfamily
orfriendsintheUKtendedtostaywiththem,untiltheycouldsecuremorepermanent
accommodation,eitherthroughemploymentorviawordofmouth.Veryfewmigrants
20
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
receivedanyadviceabouttheirhousingentitlementsorabouthowtosearchfor
accommodation.Thereisaraftofhousinglegislationdesignedtoprotecttenantsbut
reducedstaffinglevels,budgetcutsandskillsshortagesamongenvironmentalhealthofficers
andstaffresponsibleforregulationoftheprivaterentalsectorimpactontheabilityto
enforceminimumstandardsinrelationtorentalaccommodation(CookandRoney2008).
Ourresearchhighlightedmanyinstancesofpoorhousingconditions.Someofthe
accommodationmigrantsliveinisnotproperlycoveredbyhousinglegislationandmigrants
arenotalwaysawareoftheirrightsinthisarea.Transientworkers(thosewhoremaininthe
UKforlessthanayear)andmigrantsworkinginseasonaljobsareparticularlyvulnerable
groups.Short-termhousingprovisionisoftenlimited,orofpoorquality.Transientmigrants
oftenalsoknowlittleabouttheirrights,andmayhavepoorEnglish,leavingthemexposed
toagreaterchanceofpoortreatment,includinginrelationtohousing.
Housingconditionsarepoorparticularlyamongmigrantslivinginaccommodationtiedto
employment–manytransientorseasonalworkersliveinsuchaccommodation.The
legislativeprotectionoftenantswholiveinformsofaccommodationotherthanahouseis
complex.Thereissomelegislationtoprotecttenantsinmobilehomeparksbutmanytenants
havelittleprotectionfromeviction,ortheenforcementofminimumstandardsofdecency.
Thoselivingon‘unprotectedsites’,comprisingprivatelandorsitesregisteredforholiday
homeuse,havemuchlessprotection,andifapersonlivesinaccommodationthatisnot
classifiedasa‘dwelling’theyalsohaveverylittleprotection.
Nooneweinterviewedwhowasemployedinagriculture,manufacturingorinthehospitality
sectorownedtheirhomes.Unlesstheyhadfamilies,thesemigrantswerehousedintied
accommodationorintheprivaterentalsector.
ThatfarmandhospitalitysectorworkersweresimplytoopoortobuyhousingintheUKmay
makeitmorelikelythattheywillreturnhome,asmanydidownpropertyintheirhome
countries.Weseethelimitedavailabilityofaffordablehousingasakeyfactorthatlimits
workeravailability(includingmigrantworkers)inruralareas.
Experiencesofworkinruralareas
SomemigrantworkersfoundworkbeforecomingtotheUK,throughanoverseasagencyor
throughexistingcontacts.Othersfoundworkafterarrival.
Manyworkersintheagriculture,foodprocessingandhospitalitysectorsfoundtheirfirstjob
throughanagency–alabourproviderwhoinsomecasesalsoprovidedhousing.Allthose
weinterviewedwhohadbeenemployedbyagenciesexpressedstrongopinionsaboutthe
waytheyworked.Dissatisfactionwithworkconditionstookmanyforms,butwasparticularly
associatedwiththeseagencies.
Someunskilledmigrantswereworkingwithahighproportionofothermigrants.Thislimited
theirinteractionwithlocalBritish-bornpeopleandmeanttheywerenot‘integrated’into
broadersociety.Thatsaid,migrants’socialinteractionswithhostcommunitieswerevery
varied:somemigrantsformedfriendshipsoutsidetheircommunitiesandothersdidnot.
Therewasalsoastrongperceptionthatinruralareasitwasgettinghardertofindwork
(althoughnotagriculturalwork).Agencyworkerswerefindingthismostdifficult.
‘Therearetoomanypeoplelookingforworknow.Wegettwodaysaweek,
one,twodaysaweek,anotherone,twodaysaweek,anotherone.Forpeople
topaytherenttheyneedsomething[more],itisnogoodjusttwodaysa
week.‘(Brazilianmigrant,foodprocessingsector)
21
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Beingunabletofinddirectpermanentemploymentisanimportantreasongivenbymigrant
workersformovingonfromanareaorjob.Whileemploymentagenciesareanaccepted
usefulpartoftheeconomy–ruralandurban–theyalsopresentsomeimportantproblems.
Migrantworkersthemselvesfindtheprecariousnatureofemploymentofferedunattractive,
andwhiletheyarehappytoworkthroughagenciesforashortperiodonenteringtheUK
mostprioritisemovingoutofagencyworkandintodirect,permanentemployment.
Agenciesareunpopularnotonlyfortheformsofworktheyoffer(workatshortnotice,with
fewassociatedrightsandnoguaranteeofrepeatedemployment),butalsoforthelarge
differentialbetweentheamounttheagencyispaidtoprovidethemandthewagethey
themselvesreceive,whichmanymigrantworkersperceivetobeveryunfair.
‘I’dliketoworkdirectlyforacompany.Theagencychargesaretoohigh.’
(Portuguesehotelworker,Peterborough)
Someagenciesalsositontheveryedgeoflegalbehaviour,forexampledockingwagesfor
servicesprovidedbytheagency,suchasaccommodation,whichmightnotbewanted
and/orissub-standard.Asonestakeholderemphasised:
‘Ifourclientscangetintoworkasanemployeethey’remuchbetteroff.The
mainissueistodowithagenciesandgangmasters…Iknowrecruitment
agenciesaren’tbreakingthelaw,butthey’reusingittoexploitmigrants’
situations.’Stakeholder,migrantassociation
22
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
4.Migrants’impactsonruraleconomies
Hereweexaminethekeyimpactsofmigrantworkersonruraleconomies.Theimpactsare
manyandvaried;welookatwages,employment,skillsshortages,jobcreation,productivity
andspecificsectoralimpacts.Someoftheseissuesareprominentnationalissues–for
example,theeffectsofmigrationonwagesandemployment,andmanyruralcommunities
arenow,forthefirsttime,feelingthattheseissuesarerelevanttothem.Wealsofocuson
theintersectionbetweenmigrationandthekeychallengesfacingruraleconomies–
identifiedbytheCommissionforRuralCommunitiesaswages,lowskillsandthelossof
youngpeopletourbanareas(CommissionforRuralCommunities2008a).
Sectorsemployingmigrantsinruralareas
Anumberofsectorsinruraleconomiesemploymigrantworkerstoasignificantextent.
Figure5belowshowstheproportionofworkerswhowerebornoutsidetheUKovertimein
eachindustrysectorinruralareas–excludingagriculture,whichispoorlysampledinthe
LabourForceSurvey.5
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
9%
8%
Foreign born as % of labour force in sector
Figure5.The
percentageof
workerswhoare
foreignbornin
eachindustry
sectorinrural
areas,2000–2007
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Manufacturing
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
Transport & communication
Banking, finance & insurance
Public admin, education and health
Other
Numbersofforeign-bornworkershavebeenrisingandtheyarefoundacrossruralindustries,
Infact,foreign-bornworkershaveplayedanimportantroleinmanyruralindustriesforsome
time–theymadeupmorethan4percentofallindustrysectors’workforcesinruralareas
since2000,withtheexceptionofconstruction.6
Theproportionofforeign-bornworkersrosesignificantlyin2004,particularlyin
manufacturing,hospitalityandtransportandcommunications–allsectorswheremigrants
nowaccountforatleast7percentofthetotalworkforce.Thisislikelytobearesultinlarge
partofimmigrationfromthenewEUmemberstates.
5.ThepoorcoverageofagriculturewithintheLabourForceSurveymeansthatitisarelativelyunderstudiedsector,whichisonereasonthatweincludedspecificsectoralanalysisofagricultureinthispaper
(seebelow).
6.ForeignworkersinconstructionareheavilyconcentratedinLondon(seeChappelletal 2008).
23
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Migrationandwages
Perhapsthemostfrequentlyvoicedfearinrelationtomigrationandtheeconomy–ruraland
urban–isthatmigrantsaretakingBritons’jobsandpushingdownwages.However,despite
thefrequencywithwhichtheseconcernsareexpressedinthemedia,thebestavailable
evidencesuggeststhat,atanationallevel,migrationdoesneitherofthesethings.
Turningfirsttothequestionofwages,thebestandmostrecentresearchonmigration’s
wageimpactsintheUKsuggeststhatmigrationhasclosetonoimpactonwages,evenafter
therapidincreaseofimmigrationsince2004(Dustmannetal 2005,ReedandLatorre
2009).7
Thisnationalpictureisimportanttodiscussbecauseitisnotwidelyknowntobethecase,
eitherbythepublicorbypolicymakers,andprovidesimportantcontext.However,itdoes
notdefinitivelyanswerthequestionastowhethermigrationhasnegativewageimpactsin
ruralareas,orforparticulargroups.Wagesareaveryimportantissueforruralareas–the
CommissionforRuralCommunities(2008a)identifieslowwagesasapushfactor
encouragingyoungBritishworkerstoleaveruralareas.Butitisnotpossibletoundertake
conclusiveeconometricanalysisexaminingtheimpactofmigrationonruralareasalone
becauseofthelackofdata.
Wecan,however,lookatsomeindicativedata.Figure6belowplotstheaveragerealwages
(thatis,adjustedforinflation)beingearnedbyBritish-bornresidentsinruralareas8.Itshows
ageneraltrendofrisingwagesovertimesince2001.Figure5alsoshowstheproportionof
foreign-bornpeopleofworkingageinthepopulation,whichagain,risesfairlysteadilyover
time.Itdoesnotappearthattherisingproportionofmigrantswithinruralworkforcesis
drivingdownwages.
Itdoes,however,remainpossiblethatmigrationhashadwageimpactsinsomeruralareasor
sectors–moredataandresearchintolocallabourmarketimpactsisneeded.
£10
0.06
£8
£6
0.04
£4
0.02
£2
£0
Foreign born of working age as % of population of working age
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
0.08
£12
Average gross hourly pay (2007=100)
Figure6.UKbornaverage
grosshourlypay
vs.percentageof
foreignbornin
theworkforcein
ruralareas,
2001–2007
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
UK born average hourly pay
2005
2006
2007
% foreign born of working age
7.Atleastintheshorttomediumterm.Wedealwiththelongerrunsituationinfollowingsub-sections.
8.Notethatthismaynotbeanentirelyaccuratereflectionofruralwagesbecausesomeruralresidents
willworkinurbanareas.Thisdatais,however,thebestavailable.
24
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Migrationandunemployment
Thebestandmostrecentresearchonmigration’semploymentimpactsintheUKsaysthat
migrationhasnotresultedinincreasedunemployment(Gilpinetal 2006,ReedandLatorre
2009).Thismaysoundcounterintuitive–howcouldnewpeoplearriveintoanareaandnot
takejobsfromtheexistingworkforce?Oneexplanationisthat,intheshortrun,migrantsfill
gapsinthelabourforcethatcannotbefilledfromtheUK-bornpopulation(thisissupported
bythefactthatmigrantstendtoworkinsectorswithhighvacancyrates).Anotheristhat
migrantsalsoincreasedemandintheeconomyandthuscausetheeconomytoexpand,
creatingnewjobs.
Sohowmightruraleconomiesvaryfromthisnationalpicture,ifatall?Thereisevidencethat
vacanciesinruraleconomiescanbeevenhardertofillthaninurbanareas(Commissionfor
RuralCommunities2008b),andthatthisisthecasebothforhighly-skilledandlow-skilled
workers.Thissuggeststhatmigrantworkersmaybemorelikelytotakeuphard-to-fill
vacancies,andthereforeevenlesslikelytocreateunemploymentinruralareasthaninthe
widereconomy.Thisviewwassupportedbyourstakeholderinterviews:
‘Inlotsofruralareasthereisnolocalworkforcetodrawon...InruralWales
they[businesses]couldn’tfunctionwithoutmigrantworkers;similarlyinthe
South-West.‘Stakeholder,hospitality
Figure7supportsthisconclusion–itshowstheproportionofmigrantsofworkingagein
ruralpopulationsovertime,setagainstunemployment.Itshowsthatunemploymentinrural
areashasremainedsteadyovertheperiodconcerned(whichdoesnotcoverthecurrent
recession),whiletheproportionofworkingagepeoplebornoutsidetheUKhasrisen
steadily.Inotherwords,migrationdoesnotappeartohaveledtoariseinunemploymentin
ruralareas.Instead,wheretheyareemployedtheyseemtobefillingvacancies(andmigrants
aremorelikelytobeemployedthantheaverageBritish-bornperson)(Cooleyetal 2005).
Theymayalsobemakingacontributionsuchthattheyareexpandingtheruraleconomyand
thusthetotalnumberofjobswillincrease(discussedfurtherlaterinthissection).
80%
0.07
0.06
60%
0.05
0.04
40%
0.03
0.02
20%
0.01
0%
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
UK born employment rate
2005
2006
2007
% foreign born of working age
Foreign born of working age as % of population of working age
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
0.08
UK born employed as % of population of wokring age
Figure7.UKbornemployment
ratevs.
percentageof
foreign-bornin
theworkforcein
ruralareas,
2001–2007
25
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Thisemploymentpictureislikelytochangesignificantlyduringthecurrentrecession,with
unemploymentexpectedtoriseacrosstheUK,includinginruralareas.Thenumberofhardto-fillvacanciesinruralareasislikelytodeclineduringtherecession,butsotooisthesupply
ofmigrants(seebelow).Infact,ruraleconomies,whichtendtohavelessflexiblelabour
markets,mayfindthattherecessionhaslessimpactontheirvacancyratesthaninurban
areas,andtheymayseedemandformigrantworkersremaininghigherthanelsewhereinthe
UK.
Migrationandskillshortages
Thesparsenessofpopulationsinruralareascanexacerbatetheshortagesofskillsthatmight
befeltanywayinsomesectors.Ruralemployersareconcernedaboutthegreaterdifficulties
theyfaceinrecruitingthantheirurbancounterparts,particularlyofskilledmanagersand
professionals(CommissionforRuralCommunities2008a).Inthemediumtolongtermthere
needtobemeasurestoensurethereiseducationandtrainingforpeopleinruralareasbut
migrationalsohasaroletoplay,particularlyintheshorttomediumterm.
Therearesignificantdifferencesinthelevelofqualificationsbetweenforeign-bornandUKbornworkersinruralareas.9 Figure8showsthatmorethan50percentofUK-bornpeoplein
ruralareasleftfull-timeeducationatage16orbefore,whereasthiswasthecaseforless
than30percentofforeign-bornworkers.
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
60%
Population by age when left full time education as % of total
Figure8.Ageat
whichleftfulltimeeducation,
foreign-bornand
UK-bornrural
residents,2007
50%
40%
16 or under
17-21
30%
Over 21
Still in education
20%
10%
0%
Rural foreign born
Rural UK born
ShortagesofskilledlocalworkerscausedbyhighlyeducatedUK-bornworkersmovingfrom
thecountrysidetomoreurbanareasappeartoafflictallsectorsinruraleconomies(Figure
9).Insomesectorssuchashospitalityandmanufacturingmorethan60percentoftheUKbornworkforcelefteducationatage16orunder.Financialservicesandpublic
administration,educationandhealthboastthehighestproportionofhighly-educatedUKbornworkersinruralareas.
9.Thevariableusedinthisanalysistoestimateworkers’levelofqualificationsisagewhenleftfull-time
education,sinceforeignqualificationsareunder-representedintheLabourForceSurvey.Althoughthis
estimateprovidesonlyapartialpictureofworkers’skills,itisagoodapproximationtocomparethelevel
ofqualificationsbetweenforeign-bornandUK-bornworkers.
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Figure9.Ageof
UK-bornworkers
inruralareas
whenleftfulltimeeducation,
byindustry
sector,2007
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
Foreign born by age group as % of foreign born in industry sector
26
100%
5%
16%
90%
80%
15%
33%
7%
9%
30%
31%
70%
41%
60%
46%
50%
40%
30%
62%
43%
20%
61%
63%
Manufacturing
Other
39%
10%
0%
Distribution, hotels and
restaurants
Public admin, education
and health
Banking, finance and
insurance
16 or under
17-21
Over 21
Figure10.Ageof
foreign-born
workersinrural
areaswhenleft
full-time
education,by
industrysector,
2007
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
Foreign born by age group as % of foreign born in industry sector
Incontrast,foreign-bornworkersacrossallsectorsinruralareasaremuchmorelikelytobe
highlyeducated(Figure10).Theshareofworkerswholefteducationaged16orunderis
significantlylowerthanfortheUK-bornpopulation,representinglessthan30percentin
mostsectors.
100%
90%
19%
19%
34%
80%
30%
26%
70%
60%
44%
51%
46%
50%
47%
40%
53%
30%
20%
37%
30%
10%
28%
19%
17%
Public admin, education
and health
Banking, finance and
insurance
0%
Distribution, hotels and
restaurants
16 or under
Manufacturing
17-21
Other
Over 21
MigrantscomingtoworkintheUKareoftenunderemployed,performingjobsthatrequire
skillsbelowtheirlevelofqualifications(Dustmannetal 2007).Inparticular,asubstantial
proportionofthosethathavebeenintheUKforonlyashortperiodoftimearelikelytobe
doinglow-skilledwork.Overtime,however,migrantstendtomoveintojobsthatbettersuit
theireducationalbackgroundandskills.Therefore,thisinjectionofhighly-skilledworkers
27
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
intoruraleconomieshasstrongerlikelihoodofmeetingsomeskillsshortagesifworkers
remaininthemediumtolongterm.
Migrationandjobcreation
Aswellasbeingworkers,migrantsareconsumers–thosewholiveinruralareascanincrease
demandinruraleconomies,whichcanincreasethemarketforlocalfirms.Whenbusinesses
succeedandexpandtheyfurtherincreasedemandwithintheeconomy.Thismeansthateven
businessesandindustriesthatdonotemploymigrantsthemselvescanbenefitfrom
migration,leadingtojobcreationthroughoutruraleconomiesinthelongerterm.
Anumberofstakeholdersinourresearchstronglyemphasisedthispointaboutjobcreation:
‘Migrantsarecriticalnotjusttothoseindustriesthatemploythem,butalsoto
inter-linkedindustries.‘Stakeholder,ruralbusiness
Thisisnottheonlywayinwhichmigrantsappeartosupportruralbusinessesandjob
creation.Anumberofstudieshavestressedthatmigrantscanbemoreentrepreneurialthan
non-migrants(Nathan2008)–andentrepreneurialismisavitalfactorincreatingthriving
businesses,economiesandjobopportunities.Onemeasureofentrepreneurialismisselfemployment.Figure11showstheproportionsofself-employedforeign-bornandUK-born
Source:LabourForce
Surveyandippr
calculations
45%
40%
Self-employed as % of workforce in sector
Figure11.Selfemployed,
foreign-bornand
UK-born,in
urbanandrural
areas,2007
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Rural UK Born
Rural Foreign Born
Urban UK Born
Urban Foreign Born
Construction
Other
Banking, finance and insurance
Distribution, hotels and restaurants
Manufacturing
Public admin, education and health
Onaverage,peoplelivinginruralareasaremorelikelytobeself-employedthanthosein
urbanareas.ComparingthosebornabroadwiththosebornintheUKsuggeststhatthe
foreign-bornaremorelikelytobeself-employedinsomesectorsinruralareas–suchas
distribution,hotelsandrestaurantsandbanking,financeandinsurance,whereastheUKbornaremorelikelytobeself-employedinotherssuchasmanufacturing.Migrantsinrural
areasaremorelikelytobeself-employedthantheaveragepersonintheUK,thoughnot
moresothantheaveragepersoninruralareas.
28
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Table5showsthepercentagesofmigrantswhoareself-employed,breakingdownthedata
bytheirlengthofstay.ThedatashowsthatmigrantsaremuchmorelikelytobeselfemployediftheyarrivedintheUKrecently.
Table5.Self-employedforeign-born,bylengthofstayintheUK,2007
Lengthofstay
%migrantsintheUKforthatperiodwhoareself-employed
Lessthan5years
19%
5–10years
12%
Morethan10years
3%
Source:LabourForceSurveyandipprcalculations
Thereareanumberofexplanationsforthis.Someoftheself-employmentmaybeafunction
ofvisarestrictions–RomaniansandBulgarians,forexample,arenotusuallypermittedaccess
totheUKlabourmarketas‘workers’,thoughtheyareabletoworkasself-employedpeople.
Theseself-employedpeoplemaynotbeanymore‘entrepreneurial’thantheaverageworker.
Insomesectorssuchasconstructionandthemediaself-employmenthasbecomea‘normal’
wayofworkingandagain,inthesecasesself-employmentisprobablynotsignificantly
linkedtoentrepreneurialism(Chappelletal 2008).
However,someofthereasonsforwhichnewmigrantsaremorelikelytobeself-employed
thanotherworkersmaysuggesthigherlevelsofentrepreneurialism.Forexample,some
migrantscomefromcultureswhereself-employmentandbusinesscreationarecommon,
bringingtheseculturalattitudesandwaysofworkingwiththem,whichmaycreatenewjobs
intheUK.Somemigrantsmaybeforcedintoself-employmentiftheyareexcludedfrom
employment,butmaynonethelesssubsequentlydrivejobcreationinthelocalarea.
Migrationandproductivity
WehavealreadyseenthatmigrantstoruralareasareoftenmoreskilledthanUK-born
workersinruralareas.Wewouldexpectthistoincreasetheproductivityofruraleconomies.
Similarly,migrantentrepreneursmayincreaseproductivity.Butmigrationmayalsohave
widerproductivityeffectsviachangesintechnologyorbusinesspractices.
Theavailabilityof(cheap)migrantlabourmightstopfirmsfrominnovatingtechnologically
andinvestingincapitalinordertodelivertheirproducts.Economictheorysuggeststhatto
produceagivengood,firmshaveachoiceusinglabourorcapital(crudely,peopleor
machines)asinputs.Ifthereareshortagesoflabour,businesseswillneedtoconsiderother
methodsofproduction,meaningthattheyeitherinvestincapital,iftherighttechnologies
alreadyexist,orinresearchandinvestmenttodeveloptherequiredtechnology.Ithasbeen
suggestedthatbyprovidingsuppliesoflabour,migrationmightpreventtechnological
innovation.Thiscouldleadtoa‘lowskillequilibrium’wherelow-skilled,low-paidjobspersist
intheeconomyforlongerthantheymightotherwisehavedone.Thereissomeevidence
thatthismayoccurintheUK,includinginruralareas(Nathan2008).
However,otherresearchsuggeststhateconomictheoryprobablyoverstatestheextentto
whichtechnologycanreplacepeople(Rowthorne1999).Moreover,intheshorttermat
least,manybusinessesdonotfaceastraighttrade-offbetweenlabourandtechnology.In
caseswherethescopetoincreaseproductivitythroughmorecapital-intensivemethodsis
limited,orwherenewtechnologiesneedtobedeveloped,orwhereUKbusinessesface
competitionfromoverseas,thenthechoicemaynotbebetweenlabourandnewtechnology:
itmaybebetweenlabourandbankruptcy–eitherforsomefirmsortheentiresectororsub-
29
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
sectoroftheeconomy.Thismaybethecaseforsomeruralsectors,particularlyagriculture,
anindustrywhereinplacesthepotentialformechanisationhasbeenexhausted,andstrong
competitionfromothercountriesputsdownwardpressureonprices.
Secondly,migrantsareoftenthoughttobeparticularlyproductiveworkers.Thisisforsimilar
reasonsasfortheirentrepreneurialism–eitherbecausetheyarecomingfromaculture
wherethereisastrongfocusonhardworkandproductivity;orbecausetheactofmigrating,
beingwillingtocrossbordersandenternewculturesinsearchofopportunity,shows
inherentdriveandambitioninitself.Thereissomestrongevidenceforthehighproductivity
ofmigrantworkersintheUK(Denchetal 2006,Eaglesham2007,Chappelletal 2008).The
productivityofmigrantworkersalsocamethroughclearlyinourdiscussionswithemployers
andbusinessgroups:
‘Theclassicmarkerofamigrantworkeristhattheywanttoimprove
themselvesinsomeway.‘Stakeholder,hospitality
‘Migrantsareefficient,hardworkersandresponsible.‘Stakeholder,agriculture
‘Themigrantworkeronmystaffisnowthebestpaidmemberofthe
workforce,becausehe’sinvaluable.It’sadifferentworkethic.‘Stakeholder,
agriculture
Sectoralimpactsofmigrationinruralareas
Havinganalysedtherelationshipbetweenmigrationandunemployment,wages,jobcreation
andproductivity,wenowturntoexaminethreekeyruraleconomicsectorsascasestudies–
agriculture,foodprocessingandhospitality.Thisenablesustobuildamoredetailedpicture
ofhowmigrationinteractswithasector,bringingtolifetherolethatmigrantsplay.
Thesesectorshavebeenchosenfortwomainreasons.First,eachhasseentheproportionof
migrantsintheirworkforcerisesignificantly,andthusmigrationplaysanimportantrolein
theeconomicprospectsofthesesectors.BetweenMay2004andSeptember2006more
than75percentofnewEUmigrantsarrivinginruralareasregisteredtoworkinthese
sectors–33percentinmanufacturing(whichincludesfoodprocessing),25percentin
agricultureandfishing,and20percentindistribution,hotelsandretail.Thisisparticularly
strikingasbetweenthemthesectorsonlyaccountfor36percentofruraloutput
(CommissionforRuralCommunities2007a).10
Second,eachofthesesectorsisimportanttoruraleconomies,althoughtheyaccountfor
onlyaroundathirdofruraloutput.Hospitalityisamajoremployerinruralareaswhichhas
grownstronglyandsteadilyinrecentyears,andhasbeenidentifiedasasectorwithstrong
futuregrowthpotential(People1st2006c).Agricultureandmanufacturing,conversely,are
industriesthathavehistoricallymadelargecontributionstotheUKeconomy,particularlyin
ruralareas,butwhichhavebeenstrugglingtomaintaintheirpositioninrecentyears.This
declineisofconcerntothewiderruralandnationaleconomy.Theadvantagesofretaining
strongbusinessesandindustriesintheUKnearthebaseofthe‘productionchain’have
increasinglybeenemphasisedoverthepastyearassomeserviceindustries,suchasfinance,
havestruggled.Someoftherecentgainsmadebythesesectorshavearguablybeen
facilitatedbytheavailabilityofmigrantlabour.
10.Thedatareferstothesectorsthatmigrantssaytheywillbeworkinginwhentheyregister.After
sometimeintheUKtheymaymovetoothersectors;evidencesuggestsmanymigrantsdothis.
Thereforethesestatisticsonlyaccuratelyrepresentthesectoralallocationofmigrantswhentheyinitially
entertheUK.
30
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
ThesesectorsalsocontributetoUKfoodsecurity,anissuethatisrisingupthepolicyagenda
(forexamplewiththerecentestablishmentoftheCouncilofFoodPolicyAdvisers,whichwill
lookatUKfoodsecurity)(DepartmentforEnvironmentFoodandRuralAffairs2008).In
addition,agriculturehasaspecialroleinitsstewardshipoftheland.Further,foodprocessing
hasbeenidentifiedasapotentialgrowthsectorforruralareas,buckingthegeneral
manufacturingtrend.Forexample,ithasbeenidentifiedasaprioritygrowthsectorbythe
NorthWestDevelopmentAgency(2007).Nonetheless,itisimportantnottooverstatethe
importanceofagriculture–in2004itonlyemployedapproximately6percentoftherural
workforce(DepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRuralAffairs2004).
Casestudy1:Agriculture
Alldatainthissection,unlessspecified,comefromDEFRA’sAnnualAgriculturalStatisticsfor
EnglandandWales,2008,whicharedrawnfromtheannualJuneAgriculturalCensus.
Sectoroverview
Employmentinagriculturehasbeenfallingforsometime.Agriculture(includinghorticulture)
employed480,000peopleintheUKin2007,a31percentdecreaseon1984.Thefallin
agriculturalemploymentoverthepast70yearshasbeenfairlyconstantyear-on-year.From
theSecondWorldWaruntil1970,mostsectorsofagricultureenjoyedaboom,but
employmentstilldeclinedasproductivityincreasedsignificantly.Since1970,however,
agriculturehasexperiencedfallingcommodityprices,verytightprofitmargins,andasa
consequencefallingfarmincomes.Theincreasedpowerofthesupermarketsand
agribusinessastheprimepurchasersofagriculturalproducehasproducedmostofthis
squeezeonprofits(forexample,Tesconowcontrols27percentofthefoodretailmarketin
theUK[Lawrence2008]),aswellassupermarkets’willingnesstosourceproductsfrom
overseas.
Inordertomaintaintheirviability,farmershaverespondedinthreemainways,through:
•Intensification–usingtechnicalandnon-technicalinnovationtoincreaseyields,speed
upagriculturalproduction,orreducerisk.MostfocusedinEastAnglia,theEast
MidlandsandtheFens.
•Diversificationandvalorisationwithinagriculturalproduction–growingnewcrops
suchastriticale(acrossbetweenwheatandrye),byconvertingtoorganicproduction
orspecialistanimalbreeds.Thesenewinitiativesareoftenlabourintensive,creating
potentialdemandsformigrantlabour.
•Farmincomediversificationoutsideagriculturalproduction,includingmovementinto
farmholidaysandtherentaloffarmbuildingsasoffices.
Thehistoricaluseofmigrantlabourinagriculture
Thereisalonghistoryofusingforeignmigrantsasagriculturalworkers,datingbackmany
centuries(Winder2004).ProtestantrefugeesfromFranceandtheSpanishNetherlands
drainedandfirstcultivatedtheFens.DuringtheFirstWorldWar,Belgianrefugeessettledin
PeterboroughanditsenvironsinCambridgeshire,manyofthemfindingagriculturalwork.
AftertheSecondWorldWar,Polishex-servicemenwhosettledintheUKwerebilletedto
workasagriculturallabourersatatimeofacutelabourshortage.
Agriculturehasreliedonseasonallabourformanycenturies.Differentcropsrequiredifferent
amountsoflabourinputatdifferenttimesoftheyear,asdodifferenttypesofanimal
production.Horticulturalproduction,includingpacking,isaparticularlylabourintensive
sector,characterisedbypeaksandtroughsinlabourdemand.Strawberryproductionunder
31
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
glass,forexample,requiresthreetimesasmuchlabourinAugustandSeptemberasitdoes
inFebruary.
Scottetal (2008)distinguishbetweentheprimaryagriculturallabourmarket,comprising
permanentemployees,andthesecondaryagriculturallabourmarketwhichcomprises
seasonalworkers.Thisseasonallabourhas,andcontinuestobe,providedbyfamilymembers
andothersinruralcommunities(thelongschoolholidayswerescheduledtocoincidewith
theharvest).Gypsiesandothertravellershavealsobeenasourceofseasonallabourand
thereisalonghistoryofusingtheurbanworkingclassasseasonallabourinsomepartsof
theUK.Forexample,hoppickinginKentwasundertakenbyLondonersuntilwellafterthe
SecondWorldWar.Untilthelate1990s,unemployedUK-bornworkersalsosometimes
workedonfarmsduringtimesofpeaklabourdemand.Forexample,workersmovedfrom
NottinghamandHulltoworkonholdingsintheFens,stayingincaravansforpartofthe
weekthentravellinghome.However,todaythisseasonallabourneedisincreasinglymetby
theemploymentofmigrantworkers.
Migrantsinagriculturetoday
Since1997,thesizeoftheUK-bornagriculturallabourforcehasdecreasedatthesametime
asincreasedagrarianintensificationandincomediversification,whichhasinsomecases
increasedthedemandforlabour.Peoplewillingtoundertakeunskilledlabourinruralareas
aresimplynotavailableinthequantitythatisrequiredbyagriculture.Moreover,agricultural
wagesarelowincomparisonwithotherunskilledwork,despitetheworkbeinghardand
therebeingfewercareerprospectsthaninotherjobs.
Inparticular,therehasbeenanincreaseddemandforsecondary,seasonalagriculturallabour
(Scottetal 2008).Asaresult,employershavelookedtointernationalmigrantstofillthe
gaps,andmigrantworkersnowplayasignificantroleintheprimaryagriculturallabour
marketandtheseasonallabourmarket.
LabourForceSurveyestimates(whichcaptureonlythoseemployedintheprimary
agriculturallabourmarket,andexcludethoselivinginaccommodationtiedtoemployment)
suggestthattherewere25,200foreign-bornworkersemployedintheagriculturaland
fisherysectorinthefirstquarterof2007,comparedwith11,500inQ21998.Itisvery
difficulttoestimatethenumbersofseasonalmigrantworkersinthesector,butweknow
howmanyhavecometotheUKthroughtheSeasonalAgriculturalWorkersScheme:7,310
workersenteredtheUKin2007throughSAWS,downfrom20,700whentheschemewasat
itspeakin2003.Manymoreworkersareemployedseasonallyinthesector,buttheyarenot
capturedinthesedatasets.
LearningmoreaboutthemigrantsinvolvedisnoteasyasthesmallsamplesizeoftheLabour
ForceSurveypreventsadetailedanalysis.However,other,qualitativeresearchprovidessome
insights.Migrantsareoccasionallyemployedinthedairysectorbutaremorelikelytowork
withpigsandpoultry(teamsworktogethertoemptyandcleansheds)andthe‘othercrops’
sector(softfruits,vegetables,flowersandbulbs)–wheretheircontributionisessential
duringtheharvestingseason.
ResearchsuggeststhatmostmigrantagriculturalworkersintheUKcomefromwithinthe
EU,mostlyfromthenewmemberstates,particularlyPolandandRomania,withmany
RomaniansadmittedthroughSAWS.Thisispartlyareflectionofimmigrationrules.SAWS,
forexample,hasbeenreservedsolelyforBulgarianandRomaniannationalssinceJanuary
2008(whereasin2007therewasaquotaof40percentofplacesfornon-EUnationals).
One2007studyfoundthat58percentofhorticulturalworkerswerenationalsoftheA8
32
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
accessioncountries,19percentwereRomaniansandBulgariansadmittedthroughSAWS,19
percentwerenationalsofothercountriesadmittedthroughSAWSand2percentwere
nationalsofothercountriesarrivingbyotherroutes(NationalFarmersUnion2008).Inother
sub-sectorsandpartsoftheUK,however,therearesignificantgroupsofmigrantsfrom
countriesoutsidetheEU.
BringingthisinformationtogetherwithresearchonwhymigrantscometoworkinBritish
agriculture,wecangroupmigrantagriculturalworkersintoanumberofcategories:
•A8andA2migrantsforwhomagriculturalworkisafirstjobonarrivalintheUK
beforemovingtobetterpaidwork:ipprpollingdataandotherresearchsuggeststhat
abouthalfofA8workersleaveagriculturalworkwithinthreemonthsofarrivalinthe
UK.Thosewholeavearealmostalwaysbettereducatedthantheaverageandcite
poorpayandlowstatusoftheworkasthemainreasonsformovingon.
•A8migrantswhoremainforaperiodoftimeintheUK,savemoney,thenreturnto
theircountryoforigin:Seasonalagriculturalworkisoftenanattractiveoptionfor
thosewhomigratetotheUKforjustashortperiodoftime(perhapsonmorethan
oneoccasion).
•A8workerswhoremaininagriculture:Thisgroupisrelativelysmall.Theygenerally
appeartobelesswell-educated,speaklessfluentEnglish,bedependenton
compatriotsfortranslationandhavefewercareeroptionsintheUKortheircountries
oforiginthanworkersintheothercategorieshere.Insomecasestheyareprogressing
tomoreresponsibleworkwithinthesector.
•SAWSmigrants:Before2008,whenSAWSwasopentoawiderrangeofnational
groups,SAWSattractedstudentsfromcountriessuchasUkraine.Today,SAWSworkers
appeartobeolderandlesseducated.HighproportionsareRoma,astheseasonal
natureoftheworkisoftencompatiblewiththelifestylesofsomeRomawhowantto
spendtimewithfamilyinRomania.
•Pre-2004EUmigrants:vastmajorityfromPortugal:Pooremploymentprospectsin
Portugalamongthisgroup,manyofwhomhavefewqualifications,havebrought
themtotheUK(deAbreuandLambert2003).
• EUandoverseasstudentswiththerighttoworkintheUK:Asmallgroup,though
numbersmaybegrowing.
•Irregularmigrants:Althoughitisdifficulttoestimatenumbersofirregularmigrants,in
2000theycomprisedasignificantpartofthehorticulturallabourforceinpartsofthe
UK.TheircountriesoforiginincludedChina,Brazil,Iraq,Afghanistan,India,Pakistan
andBangladesh(RogalyandTaylor2004).Employers’sanctionsandtheworkofthe
GangmastersLicensingAuthorityappeartohavedecreasedthenumbersofirregular
migrantsemployedonfarms,buttheyarestillpresent.
•Long-settledforeign-bornpopulationsfromSouthAsiawholiveinurbanareas:This
grouptendstobebussedoutofcitiesbygangmasterstoworkinhorticultureand
fieldvegetableproductionandpacking.Forexample,therearesignificantpopulations
ofBritishPakistanisworkinginthehorticulturesectorinHerefordshireand
Worcestershire(LanzandGullen2006).Thisgroupoftenpossessesfewqualifications.
Limitedjobprospectsinurbanareas,plusagrowingnumberofSouthAsian
gangmasters,haveledtoanincreaseinseasonalworkersfromthisgroup.
Futuretrends
Agriculturewillplayanimportantroleinthefutureofruraleconomies,evenifitremainsa
relativelysmallemployer.Increasedemphasisonfoodsecurityandlandstewardshipwill
reinforcethiseconomicrole.Itseemslikelythatagriculturewillcontinuetoexperiencelabour
33
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
shortages,particularlyforlow-skilledandseasonalwork.Althoughtechnologicalinnovation,
capitalinvestmentandchangedworkingpracticesmayreducethedemandforlabourto
someextentinthefuture,manylow-skilledandseasonaljobswillremain.Somewillbefilled
byUK-bornworkers,particularlyduringthecurrentrecession,buttheirlocationandnature
arelikelytorenderthemhardtofillinthemediumtolongterm.Migrantworkerswill
thereforehaveanimportantandongoingroleinthesector.
Casestudy2:Foodprocessing
Sectoroverview
Foodprocessingisadiversesector,includingsmall-scaleartisanbusinesses,medium-sized
enterprisesaswellaslargetransnationalcompaniesthatmakemanyproducts.TheFoodand
DrinkFederation(2007)suggeststhat411,000peoplewereemployedinthefood
processingsectorin2007.Thisisalmostcertainlyanunderestimate,undercountingthose
employedinartisanbusinessesandfoodprocessingoperationswithintheretailsector.Itis
likelythatabout15percentofthetotalUKworkforceisdirectlyemployedinfood
processing.Additionally,manythousandsofjobsinagricultureandretailingdependonthe
foodprocessingsector,whichpurchases75percentoftheUK’sagriculturaloutput.
Thetotalturnoverinthefoodprocessingsectorwasestimatedtobe£74millionin2007.
ThesectoristhelargestcomponentoftheUK’smanufacturingindustryandcontributes
14.2percentofthemanufacturingsector’sGrossValueAdded(FoodandDrinkFederation
2007).InsomepartsoftheUK–NorthernIreland,EasternScotland,theEastMidlandsand
theFens,includingmanyruralareas–thefoodprocessingsectorisparticularlyimportantto
localeconomies.
Althoughmostfoodprocessingbusinessesaremediumsized,employing100to250people,
therehasalsobeenagrowthinthenumberofverylargeenterprises(FoodandDrink
Federation2007).Andtherehasbeenaconsolidationofbusinessesaslargetransnational
corporationshaveboughtupfactoriesandbrands.
Migrantsinruralfoodprocessing
Althoughthetotalturnoverofthefoodprocessingsectorhasgrownoverthelast10years,
thesizeofitsworkforcehasdecreased,asaconsequenceofgreaterautomation.Atthe
sametime,analysisoftheLabourForceSurveyshowsthattherehasbeenasteadygrowthin
thenumbersofmigrantworkersemployedinthefoodprocessingsector,particularlysince
2004andthearrivalofmigrantsfromtheEU’snewmemberstates.Thefoodprocessing
sectorischaracterisedbytightprofitmarginsforproducersandlowwagesforemployees.In
economicboomtimes,thefoodprocessingsectorhasnotbeenseenasanattractivecareer
optionbyUK-bornworkers,althoughthismaychangeduringrecession.
Despiteagriculturalintensification,thefoodprocessingsectorhasseasonalpeaksindemand
forlabour.Thesepeaksarecausedbyagriculturalproductionpatternsaswellasseasonal
consumptionpatterns.Newinnovationssuchas‘just-in-timeproduction’wherefoodisnot
producedtostock,rathertomeettheexactamountdemandedbyacustomer,requireavery
flexibleworkforce.Ifdemandishighinoneareaofthebusiness,additionaltemporary
workersmayberequired.Temporarywork,sometimeson‘zero-hourscontracts’(underwhich
theemployerdoesnotguaranteetoprovideworkandpaysonlyforworkactuallydone),has
provedunattractivetomanyBritishworkers,somuchofthislabourhasbeenprovidedby
migrants.Manyofthetemporaryworkersforjust-in-timeprocessesgettheworkthrough
labourproviders,oftengangmasters,someofwhomarethemselvesmigrants(Geddes2008).
34
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Migrantsarenotemployedinequalnumbersacrossthesector.Theyaremostlikelytobe
employedinfoodpacking,forexampletheinitialprocessingandpackingofsalad
vegetables,aswellastheproductionlineprocessingoffoods(seeTable6belowandGeddes
2008).Theserolesaremorelikelythanotherstobelocatedinruralareas.
Table6:Migrantworkersinfoodprocessing,2006–2007(meanquarterlypercentage)
UK-born
EU15plus
Norway,Iceland,
Switzerland,
Liechtenstein
1.8
4.0
Butchers,meatcutters
91.4
Bakers,flour,
84.2
confectioners
Fishmongers,poultrydressers
82.8
0
Food,drinkandtobaccoprocess 72.4
2.3
operatives
Packers,bottlers,
60.3
3.0
cannersandfillers
Source:LabourForceSurveyascitedinGeddes(2008)
EUaccession
states
of2004
Bulgariaand
Romania
Non-EEA
2.2
2.2
0.6
0.3
4.0
9.3
5.1
10.0
3.0
2.1
9.1
13.2
16.6
4.0
16.1
Scottetal (2008)distinguishbetweentheprimaryagriculturallabourmarketofpermanent
employees,andthesecondarylabourmarketofseasonalandtemporaryworkers.Thissame
divisionoccursinfoodprocessing.Qualitativeresearchsuggeststhatmigrantworkersare
morelikelytobeemployedinthesecondarylabourforce,withmanyoftheseseasonaland
temporaryworkersprovidedbygangmasters(Geddes2008,Rutterforthcoming).Again,this
secondarylabourforceismorelikelytobearuralone.
Futuretrends
Intheshortterm,theproportionofmigrantworkersemployedinthefoodprocessingsector
maydecrease.(Thereisalreadyevidenceofthishappeningindatagatheredfromthe
WorkersRegistrationSchemeformigrantsfromthenewmemberstatesoftheEU.)During
therecession,unemployedUK-bornworkerswillfillvacanciesinlargernumbers–
employmentinthefoodprocessingsectorisperceivedasmoreattractivethaninagriculture.
Demandforprocessedfoodislikelytoholdupbetterthanforotherproductsduring
recession,asitisoftencheaperthanfreshfood,andwhilesomefirmsmaybeaffectedby
therecession,itisunlikelythattherewillbelarge-scalejoblosses.Additionally,thecredit
crunchmayhaltgreaterautomationinfoodprocessing,asthatiscapitalintensive.
Casestudy3:Hospitality
Sectoroverview
TheUK’shospitalityindustrybroadlyfallsintothreemaincategoriesofbusiness:restaurants,
bars/clubsandpubs,andhotels/motels(People1st2006c).TheUK’shospitalitysectorisa
significantemployer,currentlyemployingapproximately2millionpeople,around7percent
ofthetotallabourforcein2005(LowPayCommission2006).Itisalsogrowingfast.In2007
‘distribution,hotelsandrestaurants‘(ofwhichhospitalityisapart)grewby5.1percent,
secondfastestafter‘publicadministration,educationandhealth’.Lookingahead,the
sector’sexpansionseemslikelytosloworreverseduringtherecession,butinthemediumto
longtermweexpectthesectortobeofgrowingimportancetoruraleconomies.
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Keycharacteristicsofthesector‘sworkforceinclude:
•Youth:Athirdoftheworkersinthesectorareundertheageof25,withagreater
proportionofstudentsthanothersectors.
•Afemaleworkforce:Around60percentofthesector’sworkforceisfemale.
•Parttime:Agreaterproportionofparttimeworkersthanothersectors.
•Dominatedbysmalltomediumsizedfirms:threequartersofbusinessesemployfewer
than10workers.
•Lowpay:17.2percentofthesector’sworkforceareworkinginminimum-wagepaying
jobs,whichisthethirdhighestproportionafterhairdressing(22.2percent)and
security(19.3percent)(LowPayCommission2008).Thereisalsoconcernthatsome
hospitalityworkersarenotbeingpaidtheminimumwage–enoughtotriggera
programmeofminimumwageenforcement.
•Alow-skilledworkforce:Onefifthoftheworkforcehasnoqualifications.However,
migrantworkersinthesectortendtohavehigherqualifications(People1st2006c).
•Informalapproachestorecruitment,training,rulesandprocedures:Inparticular,the
sectorisnotedforobtaininglabourthroughrecruitmentagencies,aswellasalow
densityoftradeunionmembership(Lucas2004).
Thehospitalitysectoroftenhashighlevelsofjobvacancies,andfacesspecificskills
shortages,particularlywithincertainpositionssuchaschefsandrestaurant/barmanagers.In
thepastyear,forexample,theBritishhospitalitysectorandPeople1st(theindustry’sskills
council)jointlywarnedtheGovernmentthattheUKfacesamassiveshortageofhighlyskilledchefsandthaturgentactionisrequirediftheproblemistobemitigated.
Vacanciesandskillshortagesaretheresultofacombinationoffactors:
•Theexpansionofthesectorhasmeantthattherateofjobcreationhasexceededthe
availablelaboursupply(People1st2006a,2006c,MatthewsandRuhs2007).
•FailuresintheUK‘svocationaleducationandtrainingsystemshavehitthesectorhard
(IncomeDataServices2003).
•Britishworkersperceivethesectorasofferingdifficultandlow-paidwork,soitishard
toattractthemtothesector(MatthewsandRuhs2007).
•Thereseemstobeastructuralrelationshipbetweenjobvacanciesandhighlevelsof
turnoverintheindustry,whichhasbeenestimatedat30percent–equivalentto
losing590,640peopleayear(People1st2006b).Whileemployersarekeentofilljob
vacancies,theoftenfluctuatingandseasonalnatureofthesector’semployment
meansthatemployersalsowantflexibilitytohireandlayoffworkersaccordingto
demand,makingjobslesspermanentandstableincomparisontoworkinother
sectors.
•Alackoftrainingandclearpathsforcareerprogressionwithinthesectoralsomakes
attractingstaffdifficult.
Migrantsinruralhospitality
ThehospitalitysectorhaslongbeenamajoremployerofmigrantsintheUK,forexample
employingSouthernEuropeansthroughmuchofthe19thand20thcenturies(Baum2006
citedinDevineetal 2007).However,itwasnotuntilrecentlythatthesectorbecameas
diverseintermsofitsemployees’nationalitiesasitistoday.Between2003and2008the
proportionofforeign-bornworkersinthesectorincreasedfrom10.2percentto13.2per
cent(andtherealfiguremaybealittlehigher,asundocumentedmigrantsworkinginthe
36
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sectormightnotbefullycountedinthesefigures).Thistrendappearstobeprincipallydue
tothearrivalofworkersfromthenewmemberstatesoftheEUsince2004,sincewhich
morethan150,000peoplefromEasternEuropehaveregisteredtoworkintheUK’s
hospitalitysector(HomeOffice2008a).
Thecompositionofthesector’sworkforceishighlydiverse.In2008,Poleswerethelargest
individualforeigngroupworkinginthesector(1.4percentofthetotallabourforce),
followedbyIndiannationals(1.1percent).WhilemigrantworkersfromCentralandEastern
Europearethefastestgrowinggroupofthesector,theirnumbersremainsmallrelativeto
thetotallabourforce,atapproximately2percentintotal.MigrantsfromAsianandMiddle
Easterncountriesaretogetherthelargestforeigngroupwithinthesector(approximately5
percent).
Migrantsarenotworkinginalloccupationsacrossthesectorbuttendtobeconcentratedin
particularcategories:infoodandbeverageoccupations,workingaschefs/cooks,waiters,bar
staffandroomserviceaswellasin‘frontofhouse‘operationssuchasreceptionand
conciergepersonnel(WrightandPollert2006).
Thegeographicalspreadofmigrantsworkinginthesectorhastraditionallymovedhandin
handwithmoregeneralsettlementpatternsofnewlyarrivedmigrants.Duringthe1990s,
newmigrantsinthehospitalitysectorwereclusteredinareaswherelonger-established
migrantnetworkshavesettled.Forexample,inthe2001Census,ethnicminoritiesworking
inthesectorwereconcentratedinLondonandtheWestMidlands(WrightandPollert2005).
However,inthelastdecade,therehasbeenagreaterdispersaltowardsmoreruralareas
(People1st2006b,Devineetal 2007).Forexample,intheEast,therecruitmentof
internationalworkerswithinthehospitalitysectoriswidespreadespeciallyforlow-skilledand
frontofhouseoccupations.12percentoftheregion’sworkersinthehospitality,leisure,
travelandtourismsectorsareforeign-born–almostequivalenttonationalratesofmigrant
employmentinthesector(People1st2006b).
TheSouthWest,particularlySomersetandCornwall,isanotherregionthathasan
increasinglylargemigrantpopulationworkinginitshospitalitysector.JobcentrePlusrecords
inCornwallshowthat33percentofjobsinthehospitalitysectorwenttomigrantsbetween
AprilandJuly2004(SouthWestEnterpriseandSkillsAlliance2005).
Futuretrends
Theadventofthepoints-basedsystemhasreducedtheeligibilityofmigrantstofind
legitimateworkinthehospitalitysector.Thishasledtolabourshortagesinsomerestaurants,
particularlythosecookingIndianandotherglobalfood.PriortotheaccessionofthenewEU
memberstatesin2004,theGovernmentcreatedtheSector-BasedScheme(SBS)inresponse
toemployerconcernsaboutworkershortages.TheSBSfacilitatedtheemploymentofa
limitednumberofnonEU-workersinselectedlow-skilledjobs,withthehospitalitysector
beingoneofonlythreesectorswheresuchjobscouldbefilled.In2003,thequotaofnonEUnationalsstoodat20,000.WiththeA8accession,thisquotawasreducedto15,000in
2004,andphasingoutbegunin2005,withtheexpectationthatnewEUnationalswouldbe
abletofillanyjobvacancies.
AlthoughtheGovernmentcorrectlyassumedthatmanynewEUnationalswouldbeavailable
toworkinthesector,industryandemployers’representativeshavereportedthatjob
vacanciesandskillsshortagesstillremainhigh.ItisalsonotcleartowhatextenttheBritish
hospitalitysectorislikelytobeabletorelyonnewEUnationalsasasourceforlabourinthe
future–recentevidencesuggeststhatmigrationfromthesecountriesisdeclining,andmany
ofthosewhohavecomealreadywillreturnhome(Pollardetal 2008).
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5.Futuretrendsandimplicationsforruraleconomies
Havinglookedinsomedetailattherolethatmigrantscurrentlyplayinruralareasandtheir
impactsonruralindustriesthissectionconsiderspossiblefuturetrendsandtheirimplications
forruraleconomies.
HowwilldemandformigrantlabourinruralBritainchange?
Thekeyvariablesindeterminingthefuturedemandformigrantlabourinruralareasare:
•Growthratesinruraleconomies
•Theextenttowhichlabourissubstitutablebytechnology
•AvailabilityofUKlabourtofillvacanciesandaddressskillsshortages.
Theshortterm
Itisimportantfortheshortterm(nextonetotwoyears)toexaminetheimpactofthe
recessiononmigrantlabourdemandinruralareas.Theexpectationwouldbethatoutputin
ruralBritainwouldfall,translatingintoreduceddemandforlabourandquiteprobably
reduceddemandformigrantworkers.Theparticularchallengesfacedbyruraleconomies(for
example,relativelyinflexiblelabourforces)mayalsohaveparticularlydamagingimpacts
duringarecession.
Recentstatisticsshowamorecomplexpicture,however.Whileunemploymentisrisingacross
theUK,thishassofarbeenmoremarkedinurbanareaswhereitrosesubstantiallyin2008
butheldsteadyinruralEngland(CommissionforRuralCommunities2008b).Overthesame
period,however,economicinactivityinruralareasincreased11 –fastertherethaninurban
ones.Thissuggeststhatlabourdemandfallinginruralcommunities,butthatisreflectedin
peopledroppingoutofthelabourmarket,ratherthanconsideringthemselvesunemployed.
Althoughongoingprocessesofwelfarereformmayincreaselabourforceparticipationinthe
future,therisingrateofeconomicinactivityinruralareasmaymakefuturevacanciesharder
tofillfromtheUK-bornpopulation,sincetheeconomicallyinactivetendtobeharderto
reintegrateintotheworkforcethantheunemployed;inturnthiscouldincreasedemandfor
migrantlabour.
Ithasbeensuggestedthatmigrantlabouristhefirsttobecutinarecession(whichwould
suggestthatthedemandformigrantlabourwouldfallfasterthanthedemandforlabourin
general),butitisnotclearthatthisisthecase.Ontheonehand,temporarylabourismore
likelytobecutinadownturnthanpermanentlabour–andmigrantsaremorelikelytobeon
temporarycontractsthanareUK-bornworkers.Forexample,53percentofmigrantsfrom
newEuropeanUnioncountriesregisteringwiththeWorkerRegistrationSchemeintheyear
toMarch2009areintemporarywork,afigurewhichrisesto78percentforthoseworking
inagriculture(UKBorderAgency2008).Onthesegroundswewouldexpectmigrantworkers
tobedisproportionatelyaffectedbyrecession.
11.Economicinactivityisameasureofpeopleofworkingagewhoareoutofworkandnotactively
seekingit,whereasthe‘unemployed’areactivelylookingforwork.Someeconomicallyinactivepeople
maychoosethis,forexampleinordertocareforchildren,butsomemaynothavebeenabletofindwork
andhavestoppedtrying.Thismaymeantheyareless‘work-ready’thantheunemployed,makinggetting
themintoworkparticularlydifficult.
38
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Alsorelevantisthefactthat‘lastin,firstout’isafairlycommonapproachtakenby
employerstodecidewhichemploymenttoterminate,atleastinthecaseofformal
redundancies(Smithetal 1999).Giventhatmanyruralmigrantshavearrivedinthecountry
(andthereforetheirworkplace)fairlyrecently,itcouldbeexpectedthattheywouldloseout
forthisreasontoo.Lastly,racismandxenophobiamayriseinarecessionaspeoplefear
losingtheirjobs,andmayblamemigrants,whichmightaffecttheiremploymentsituation.
Ontheotherhand,ifimmigrantworkersbringparticularbenefitstoemployersthatarenot
availableinthelocalpopulation(suchasfillingskillsgapsorprovidingflexibility)the
demandformigrantlabourinruralareasmightremainsteadyeveninadownturn.Infact,
onestudyoftheUSfoundthatmigrantworkerswerelesslikelytolosetheirjobsthan
American-bornworkersintherecessionof2001(Lowelletal 2006),suggestingthatinthat
caseatleast,factorssuchastemporarycontractswereoutweighedbythepositivereasons
foremployingmigrantsinthefirstplace.
ItmayalsobethecasethatthescopetosubstitutemigrantworkerswithunemployedUKbornworkersduringarecessionismorelimitedinruralareasthanelsewhere–forexampleif
transportproblemspreventmanyunemployedpeoplelivinginurbanareasfromaccessing
ruraljobs.
However,whileexistingmigrantworkersmightnotlosetheirjobs,demandfornewworkers
ofanytypeislikelytoslacken,andthereforeitseemslikelythatdemandformigrantswill
slowsubstantially.Whatthismeansfortheevolutionofmigrantflowsandtheruraleconomy
willofcoursedependonhowsupplyevolves.Weaddressthisbelow.
Themediumterm
Whentherecessionends(whetherin2010aspredictedbytheGovernmentorsomewhat
laterasotherssuggest)demandformigrantlabourwillbedeterminedtoagreaterextentby
underlyingdynamicsofruralgrowthpotential,technologicaldevelopmentandUKlabour
availability.Inthemediumtolongrun,therefore,thefollowingtrendslooklikelyto
determinedemandforlabourinruralareas.
First,thegeneraleconomicprospectsfortheUK’sruralareaslookstrong.TheCommission
forRuralCommunitiesrecentlyprojectedthattheoutputofruralfirmscouldbedoubledif
therightfacilitatingpolicymeasuresareputinplace(CRC2008a).Thisisahugelypositive
findingforruralareasandindicatesthepotentialforsignificantgrowthinruraleconomiesin
themediumterm.
Oursectoralanalysissuggestssimilarconclusions.Thereisclearlysignificantpotentialfor
furthergrowthinhospitalityandfoodprocessinginruralareas.Moreover,webelievethereis
alsopotential,withtherightfacilitatingpolicymeasuresinplace,forimprovedperformance
inagriculture.Whilethesectorhasbeenstrugglinginrecentyears,anincreasedfocuson
foodsecurityandlandmanagementbygovernmentmayboostsupportforagricultural
production.Thereappearstobeanincreasingrecognitionthat,asoneofourstakeholders
suggested:
‘Itisn’tjustthat“theseareafewindustrieswhichhavegotsomeproblems
andisn’titinteresting”.Theseareanimportantpartofourfoodsupply.‘
Stakeholder,ruralbusiness
Second,wemustturntothequestionofwhetherfutureeconomicgrowthinruralareaswill
generatedemandforlargernumbersofworkersorwhetherdemandwillbemetthrough
investmentincapitalandtechnology.Lookingacrossruraleconomies,itseemsunlikelythat
underanyplausiblescenarioinvestmentincapitalandtechnologicaldevelopmentalone
39
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wouldbeabletosupporttheCRC’sgoalofadoublingofruraloutput,eveninthemedium
term.Toachieveanythingnearthatwouldalmostinevitablyrequireadditionallabourto
somedegree.Andindeed,governmentisplanningforanincreasingpopulationinruralareas
inordertosupportfuturegrowth(DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocalGovernment
2007).
Lookingatthesamequestionsectorallygivesasimilarbutmorenuancedpicture.Itisclear
thattheverynatureofthehospitalityindustrylimitsthepossibilitiesofincreasingtheuseof
technology(Baum2006).Restaurants,barsandhotelsarebasedaroundperson-to-person
services,andwhiletheremightberoomtomechanisesomeback-of-houseoperations,on
thewholelabourisakeyconstituentpartoftheindustry.
Incontrast,theremayberoomtofurtherreducethelabourcomponentoffoodprocessing
(ElAmin2006).Therewillalwaysbesomelabourrequirementsinthesector,evenatitsmost
mechanised,forhighlyskilledsupervisorsandmachinetechniciansandusuallyasmall
numberoflessskilledworkersontheproductionline.However,thesectorisonewhere
mechanisationhaspotential,anditmaybethatincreasingproductioninfoodprocessing
wouldnotnecessarilydrasticallyincreaselabourrequirementsoverthemediumterm.
Inagriculture,thebalanceofevidenceappearstosuggestthatinmanysub-sectorsthe
potentialforreplacinglabourwithtechnologyhasbeenexhausted.Thismessagecame
throughstronglyinourresearch:
‘Inhorticulture,anywayofreplacingpickingbytechnologicalinnovationis
simplybeyondourunderstanding.[Withoutlabour]farmersandgrowers
wouldhavetocontractratherthanexpandtheirproduction,diversifyortake
theirbusinessabroad.‘Stakeholder,ruralbusiness
ThusthereappearstobepotentialinsomepartsoftheUK’sruraleconomiestopursue
futuregrowththroughgreaterinvestmentincapitalandtechnologybutlargernumbersof
workerswillalsoberequiredtopromotegrowth.
Thirdweturntothequestionofwhetherfuture,potentiallyverysignificant,ruraleconomic
growthcanbeachievedwithaUK-bornworkforce.EnglandandWaleshasanageing
population.Therearerelativelyfewerpeopleinthe20–45agegroupthaninolderage
groups,atrendthatisevenmoremarkedinruralareaswherebasicfertilitytrendshavebeen
accentuatedbyinternalmigrationwithintheUK.Youngpeopletendtoleaveruralareasto
seekworkorforhighereducation,andfewreturn.
Somesectorsofruraleconomiesfaceskillsshortagesthatarecurrentlypartiallyaddressedby
theemploymentofmigrantworkers.Theseshortagescouldbereducedinthemediumterm
byimprovingaccesstoeducationandtraininginruralareas.
Finally,itseemsunlikelythatincreasedemploymentratesorsignificantmovementofUK
workersfromurbantoruralareaswillmeetthedemandforlabourimpliedbytheambitions
forfutureruraleconomicgrowth.Althoughwelfarereformprocessesmayencouragesome
Britishworkerstotakeupruralemployment,thebarrierskeepingUKworkersoutofsome
ruralemployment,suchaslowpay,temporarycontractsandthelowstatusofworkinsome
agriculturaljobs,lookunlikelytochange.
Insum,itseemslikelythatdemandformigrantlabourinruralBritainwillremainsignificant,
andmayevenincreaseinthemediumtolongterm,particularlyiftheambitiousvisionof
doublingruraloutputistobeachieved.Thishassomeimportantimplicationfortherisks
facingruraleconomies.Anincreasingdemandformigrantworkerssuggestsanincreasing
relianceontheirsupply.ShouldthissupplynotbedependablethiscouldexposeruralBritain
40
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toseriouseconomicrisks.Weturnnowtoconsiderhowthesupplyoflabourtoruralareasis
likelyevolve,examininghowserioustheserisksmightbe.
HowwillthesupplyofmigrantlabourtoruralBritainchange?
ThesupplyofmigrantlabourtoruralBritainwilldependinlargepartonthesupplyof
migrantlabourtothewidereconomyasmanyofthefactorsthatdeterminemigrantflows
arenational(notleastimmigrationpolicy).However,regionalandlocalfactorswillalsoplaya
role,andtherelativesuccessofruraleconomiesinthefuturewillbeanimportant
determinantofflows.
Theshortterm
Itisdifficulttopredictthesupplyofmigrantsintheshortterm,inpartbecauseofrapidly
changingeconomicconditions.Qualitativeevidenceoncurrenttrendsinruralareasappears
divided.Ontheonehand,themigrantworkerswespoketoinSpalding,Lincolnshire,said
thatthepaceofnewarrivalstotheareawasnotslowingandtheydidnotlikethatfact:
‘Ithinktheyneedtostop.StoplettingmoremigrantscometotheUK.
BecauseIthinktheyarealwayscoming,coming,coming,coming,coming,
coming.‘Migrantworkerinfoodprocessing,Spalding
Mostofthemigrantswespoketoexpressedtheirintentiontostay,atleastforthenextfew
years.
Somestakeholdersconcurredwiththispictureofastrongsupplyoflabourtoo:
‘Wecertainlyaren’tseeinganysignsof[laboursupply]lesseningatall….
[Moreover]thelabourmarketwithintheEUisenormous…andthose
workforcesareavailableforemployershere.‘Stakeholder,hospitalitysector
Incontrast,inthefocusgroupweundertookinPeterborough,themigrantswespoketosaid
thatnewarrivalshadslowed,andelsewhereotherssaidthatmanywerereturning12:
‘ThePolisharenotcominghere.They’drathergotoothercountrieslike
Norway.‘Migrantworkerinhospitality,Peterborough
‘Therearen’tmanyPortugesehere.Fouryearsagothereweremore.Ithink
everyonehasgonenow.’Migrantworkerinfoodprocessing,Spalding
‘YoungpeoplefromLatviaaregoingback.Peoplelikeme,ourage,havemore
opportunitieshere[intheUK].Butyoungpeoplearegoingback.’Migrant
workerinfoodprocessing,Spalding
Otherstakeholdershadhadasimilarexperience:
‘MyPolishemployeeknewotherPolesinthearea,andhe’stheonlyone
who’sstillremaining.Theyallwentbackthreetofourmonthsago.Itseemsto
beatrendandifitisatrendthenIthinkwewillhaveproblems.‘Stakeholder,
agriculture
Moreover,themajorityofmigrantswespoketoinalllocationssaidthattheywouldnot
encourageotherstocometotheUK:
‘IfsomefriendaskedmeifEnglandisallright,formeitisallrightbecauseI
haveagoodjobandeverything,I’mgood.Buttosaytofriendscome?[No,I
wouldn’t]...‘Migrantworkerinfoodprocessing,Spalding
12.Ofcourse,somemigrantsalwaysleave,whetherfortheircountryoforiginortogoelsewhere.What
wethinkweareobservinghere,however,isahigherlevelofreturnthanusual.
41
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Thisisimportantbecausesocialnetworksarecriticalintermsoftransmittinginformationand
opinionstoothersinamigrant’sorigincountry.Manyofthemigrantswespoketohadcome
totheUKbecausetheyhadbeenadvisedtobyfriendsandrelatives.Thattheywouldnot
recommendthistoothersislikelytobeimportantindeterminingfutureflows.Thismaybe
anearlywarningoflowerlevelsofmovementintheshortterm.
ThisqualitativeevidenceofslowingarrivalsandsignificantreturnsinruralBritainis
supportedbynationalevidenceofthesametrend:arrivalsfromCentralandEasternEurope
appeartobeslowing,andreturnsaresubstantial.Sowhileonthewholethesupplyoflabour
atthemomentseemssufficient,itmaydwindleoverthecomingmonthsandyears.Tosome
extent,itappearsmigrationmayintheshorttermbeself-regulating,sothatitriseswhen
thereareplentyofopportunitiesavailable,butcanalsoprovideflexibilityinthelabourforce
inmoredifficulttimes(Chappelletal 2009).
Themediumterm
Drawingonarecentsystematicanalysisofwhymigrantschoseparticulardestinations
(EconomistIntelligenceUnit2008)aswellasippr’spastresearchandtherural-specific
researchwehaveconductedforthispaper,wecanisolatesomeofthemedium-termfactors
thatdeterminemigrationflows.
Welookattwogroupsoffactors.Firstarethosethatdeterminetherelativeattractivenessof
theUKcomparedwithotherpotentialcountries(whetherthemigrant’shomecountryor
anotherdestination).Theevolutionofthesefactorsbothaffectsboththerelative
attractivenessoftheUKforpotentialnewmigrantstothecountry,anditsattractivenessto
thosewhoarealreadyherebutareconsideringleaving(eithertogohomeortoathird
country).Secondarethefactorsthataffecthowlikelymigrantsaretobeattractedto(or
stayin)specificruralareas.
Nationalfactors
Atthenationallevel,migrationpoliciesthatmayaffectfutureflowsofmigrantstorural
areasincludefirst,puttingTier2ofthepoints-basedsystemintooperation.Itremainstobe
seenhowflexibleTier2,andinparticulartheshortagelistsystem,willbetoeconomic
demands–particularlyattheregionalorlocallevel.
ThesecondfactoristheevolutionofSAWSandTier3.SAWShasbeenanimportantsource
ofseasonallabourfortheagriculturesectorbuttheGovernmentseemsintentonabolishing
SAWSin2010withnoapparentplansinplacetoreplaceitbyopeningTier3ofthepointsbasedsystem.TheGovernment’sassumptionisthatanySAWS-typevacanciescanbefilled
bymigrantsfromwithintheEU.However,itisnotatallclearthatthiswillbethecase–itis
likelythatEUworkerswillseekmorestableandlong-termemploymentoncetheyhavefull
accesstotheUKlabourmarket.Already,therestrictionofSAWStoRomanianandBulgarian
nationalshasledtoquotasgoingunfilledandthishashadanimpactonsomeagricultural
businesses,whichlookssettoworsenifthecurrentrestrictionsarecontinued.
ThoseintheUKagriculturesector,especiallyhorticulture,feelverystronglythatSAWSis
vitaltoitssuccess:
‘Ican’ttellyouhowimportantthatschemeistous.Toloseitwouldbea
disaster.IftheGovernmentdecidestheydon’twantafoodproduction
capacityinthiscountryanymorethat’suptothem.’Stakeholder,rural
business
Indeed,theuncertaintyoverthefutureofSAWSiscausingmajorproblemstoemployers,as
onefarmmanagersetoutforus:
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‘Wewanttodoubletheareaoffruitgrownonthefarminthenextfourto
fiveyears.Todothatweneedtoknowwecangetthepeopletoharvest
thosecrops.Becausewedidn’tknowwehadtoputthoseplansonholdfor
12months,andwewillprobablyputthemonholdfor12-18monthsagain…
We’dbemadtodoanythingbeforewehavesomecertaintygoing
forward…Andifwecan’tgetthepeoplethatweneedwemayhavetothink
aboutstoppinggrowingthefruitaltogether.’Stakeholder,agriculture
Themigrationpoliciesofothercountrieswillalsobeimportantindeterminingthefuture
flowsofmigrantstotheUK’sruralareas.GiventheparticularimportanceofCentraland
EasternEuropeanmigrantsinrecentflowstotheUK’sruralareas,policiesthatmightattract
thoseworkerselsewheredeserveparticularattention.Ofthese,themostlikelytobe
significantistheplannedopeningofGermany’slabourmarketsby2011(Euroactiv.com
2008).Germanyisarichcountry,closergeographicallytokeyCentralandEasternEuropean
countriesthantheUK.Perhapsmostimportantofall,ithasahistoryofattractingmigrants
fromtheregion,particularlyPoland,tocarryoutworkintheagriculturesector.Moreopen
regimeselsewhereinconcertwithmoreclosedpolicieshereintheUKcouldconsiderably
underminetheUK’sattractivenesstomigrants.
Themedium-termperformanceoftheUKeconomyrelativetoothercountries(particularlyin
theEU)willbeanimportantfactorindeterminingthesupplyofmigrantlabour.Although
thefullimpactsofthecurrentrecessionareasyetunclear,itislikelythatmembershipofthe
EUwillgivenewEUmemberstatesconsiderableeconomicbenefitsinthemediumterm.We
mightthereforeexpectthetrendoffallingunemploymenttocontinueinthemediumtolong
term,whichislikelytoreducetherelativeattractivenessoftheUKlabourmarkettomigrants
fromthesecountriesinthefuture.ThiswillbeexacerbatedifSterlingcontinuestobeweak
relativetotheEuro.
Localandregionalfactors
Thevastmajorityofmigrantswespoketolikedlivinginruralareasandintheirparticular
locality,apartfromafewwhosaidrurallifewastooquiet(althoughthiswasnotsucha
concernthatitwouldcausethemtoleave).Peoplelikedthenaturalbeauty,viewedrural
localitiesasgoodplacesforchildrentolive,founditrelativelyeasytofindwork,foundmost
thingstobelowcost(withhousinganotableexception),andenjoyedthepeaceandquiet.
Housingwastheonerural-specificproblemraisedbythemigrantswespoketoandthose
thatworkwiththem.Thelackofavailabilityandthehighcost,particularlyofrented
accommodation,inwhichmigrantworkerslivedisproportionately(RutterandLatorre
forthcoming),wasaconstanttheme.Thefollowingcommentwastypical:
‘Whenpeoplewanttostaythere’snohousingforthem.Theytendtomoveto
urbanareasthen,whentheywanttostayandworkinruralareas.‘
Stakeholder,migrantassociation
Thehighcostandlimitedavailabilityofhousinginsomeruralareasisanissueforallthose
wholiveorworkinthecountryside.Manyyoungpeopleinruralareas,forexample,are
pricedoutofthemarketintheareaswheretheyhavegrownup.Theparticularchallengesof
housinginruralareas,aselaboratedintheTaylorreview(Taylor2008),mayexacerbatethe
challengeofcontinuingtoattractsufficientmigrantstoruralareastomeetlabourdemand.
Thereareanumberofmorelocalandindividualreasonsthatmightinfluencepeople’s
decisionsonwheretheywanttolive.Ourresearchinruralareasalsohighlightedanumberof
issuesthatwhilenot‘ruralspecific’oronlyrelevanttoruralareas,werefelttobeimportant
inmostruralcontexts.Thesewere:
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•Direct,permanentemployment: Thiswasthemostimportantfactorthemigrant
workerswespoketogaveforstayinginajoborlocality(andinsomecases,theUK).
Agencyworkwasveryunpopular,andwhilemostsawitasanacceptablewaytoenter
theUKlabourmarket,aftersometimeasagencystafftheywantedtobedirectly
employedonapermanentcontract.
•Hours: Anumberofthemigrantworkersandemployerswespoketoemphasisedthe
importanceofbeingabletoworkareasonablenumberofhours–neithertoofew(for
example,oneortwodaysagencyworkaweek)nortoomany(regularlymorethanfive
fulldaysaweek.)
•Promotion: Anumberofpeoplementionedthepossibilityofpromotionasakeyfactor
thatwouldattractthemtoliveandworkinaparticularlocation.
•Exploitationandworkplacediscrimination:Migrantsoftenlackawarenessoftheir
rightsandentitlements,whichcanleadtoexploitationanddiscrimination,for
example,notbeingpaidovertime,beingrefusedsickorholidaypayandhavingtheir
passportsretained(seeMatthewsandRuhs2007).13 Asanexampleofdiscrimination,
astudyofthehospitalitysectorfoundemployerspreferredwhitestaffovernon-white
staffforfrontlinework(Wright2007).Ifamigrantisawareofexploitationand
discrimination,aparticularbusiness,andpossiblylocalityandindustry,willbecome
lessattractivetothem.
• Workbeyondfactoriesandfields: Someofthemigrantswespoketowantedtomove
outofworkinfactoriesandfields,preferringhospitality,retailandconstructionwork.
Asingleoverarchingruralstrategytoensuremigrantsareabletoaccessworkinrural
economiesmaynotbesufficient,therefore.Onewaytoaddressthisistouse
temporaryschemes(suchasSAWS),sothatratherthanattemptingtoattractone
groupofmigrantstoremaininthesectorspermanently,businessesinsteaddrawona
rollingsupplyofshort-termmigrantswhoaretheintheUKtemporarilytoundertake
thisspecificwork.
•Integrationandcommunitycohesion:Problemsinthisarea–particularlyalackof
opportunitiesforlearningEnglishandfrictionsbetweenlocalsandnewarrivals–
mightalsoleadmigrantstoleaveaplace.
Riskanalysis
Theevidencepresentedabovesuggeststhatruraleconomieswillhaveongoingneedfor
migrantsfortheforeseeablefuture,butthatthesupplyofmigrantlabourisnotnecessarily
assured.Wethereforeassesstherisksassociatedwithalackofmigrantworkeravailability.
Table7takessomeofthekeyfactorsdeterminingtheavailabilityofmigrantworkers
identifiedabove,andthensetsouthowlikelyanyriskistomaterialiseinthemediumterm
andsecondly,whattheimpactonmigrantworkeravailabilityinruralareaswouldbe.
13.Ofcourse,ifmigrantsareworkingillegally,theirsituationisevenmoregrave,withtherebeingthe
dangerthattheydonotgetpaidatallbytheemployer.
44
ippr|MigrationandRuralEconomies:Assessingandaddressingrisks
Table7.SummaryofriskfactorsfortheavailabilityofmigrantworkersinruralareasoftheUK
Riskfactor
Likelihoodofoccurrence SeverityofimpactonUK
(mediumterm)
UKmigrationpolicylimitstheavailabilityofmigrantworkers
Medium
High
High
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
High
Housingavailabilityinruralareasworsensandcostsrise
High
High
Itbecomeshardertoobtaindirect,permanentemployment
Medium
High
Migrantsfindithardertogetajobinvolvingreasonable
Medium
Medium
Low
Low
Medium
Medium
belowlevelsofdemand
Other(EU)countriesadjusttheirmigrationpolicies
makingiteasiertomovethere
ThevalueofSterlingcontinuestodeclineagainst
currenciesinalternativedestinations
EmploymentprospectsintheUKdeterioraterelative
toalternativedestinationsand/orsourcecountries
numbersofhoursofworkperweek
Migrantsfindithardertoadvanceintheirjobsand
getpromoted
Exploitationofmigrantworkersgetsworse,asdoesdiscrimination
Migrantsarelessabletofindworkbeyondthefactoryandthefield Low
Medium
Communitycohesionworsens,andinparticularaccesstoEnglish
languagelearningfallsandtensionsbetweencommunitiesincrease
Medium
Medium
45
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6.Conclusionsandrecommendations
Actionsatavarietyoflevelscouldbetakentoreducetherisksruraleconomiesareexposed
tobytheiruseofmigrantlabour.Somekeyriskfactors,suchascurrencyexchangerates,
cannotbeaddressedherebuttherearesomerecommendationsforchangestopolicythat
wecanmake.Itisimportanttohighlighttheseforurgentattention,asmanystakeholdersin
ruralareascurrentlyfeelthattheirneedsarepoorlyreflectedbypolicymakers.
Respondingtotheserisksdoesnotwarrantawholenewpolicyagenda.Inmostcasesthe
keyleversandpolicyprocessesarealreadyinplace.Reducingtherisksrelatedtomigrant
workeravailabilityrequiresbeingawareofhowruralissuesarelinkedtoexistingpolicylevers
andprocesses,andthenadjustingorprioritisingthemaccordingly.
Threemaintypesofactionsneedtobetakentoreducerisk:
•ChangestoUK-widepolicytoencouragemigrantstocome,sothatemployerscan
accessthelabourtheyrequire
•Actiontoimprovetheattractivenessofruraleconomiessothattheygetthemigrant
workforcetheyneed
•Encouragementtostakeholderstoworktoimproveunderstandingandcommunication
oftheseissues.
Wehighlightthemostimportantrecommendationsbelowwithastar.
*Recommendation1:IncorporateanewversionofSAWSintothepoints-based
system,underTier3
ThoseintheUKagriculturesector,especiallyhorticulture,feelverystronglythatSAWSis
vitaltoitssuccess.AlthoughtheGovernmentincreasedSAWSplacesbyseveralthousand
between2008and2009itisstillscheduledtobephasedoutin2010,andremainsrestricted
toworkersfromBulgariaandRomania.
Webelievethatthisisthewrongdecisiongiventhatfarmersneedadditionalworkers,andit
seemsunlikelythataUK-basedsupply,andpossiblyanEU-basedsupply,willbeavailablein
themediumterm.TheuncertaintyoverthefutureofSAWSiscausingmajorproblemsto
employers.
WerecommendthattheGovernmentcontinuewithaSAWS-typeschemeunderTier3ofthe
points-basedsystem,whichregulatesthemovementintotheUKoflow-skilledworkersfrom
outsidetheEU.AtpresenttheGovernmenthaskeptthistierclosed,butevidencefromthe
agriculturesectorshowsthatitisimportantthatitbeopened.TheGovernmentshouldallow
workersfromoutsidetheEUtoentertheUKonsimilartermsasitusedtounderSAWS
beforeitwasrestrictedtoworkersfromRomaniaandBulgaria.
ThisisessentialforensuringthatthepotentialoftheUK’sagriculturalsectorisfullyrealised.
IftheGovernmentdoesnotreplaceSAWSwithanothersimilararrangementin2010,itis
likelythattheonlypossiblealternativeforsomepartsofthesectorwillbetomove
productionoutsidetheUK.Thiswouldhaveknock-oneffectsonotherpartsoftheUK’s
ruraleconomies,aswellasonwidergoalssuchasfoodsecurityandlandmanagement.
TheGovernmentshouldconsiderincorporatingacriterionrelatedtothedevelopmentof
sendingcountriesindecidingwhichworkersshouldbeabletotakeupplacesunderanew
scheme.ThiswouldfollowtheleadofcountriessuchasNewZealand,whichhasmade
arrangementswithsomeofthePacificIslandcountriestoprovidetheagriculturallabour
46
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theyrequire.ThisaddressesNewZealand’sshortagesofagriculturallabourandprovides
opportunitiesforpeoplefromsomeofworld’spoorestcountriestoearngoodwages,which
canhaveasignificantimpactontheirfamilies’andcommunities’circumstances(Pacific
IslandsForumSecretariat2008).
Recommendation2:OpenupTier3morewidely,toensurebusinessesacrossall
sectorsareabletoaccesslow-skilledmigrantworkersfromoutsidetheEUif
required
TheGovernmentshouldconsideropeningupTier3morewidelyalongsidespecificprovision
foragriculturegiventhefactthattherearevacanciesinlow-skilledjobsacrossanumberof
industriesinruraleconomies,forexampleinthecaresector.Unemploymenthasrisensince
ourresearchwasconductedbutitislikelythatanumberoflow-skilledvacanciesarelikelyto
remaininruraleconomiesandelsewhereinthemediumterm.
WebelieveitisimportantthattheGovernmentputinplacemonitoringmechanismsto
examinelabourshortagesinlow-skilledjobsandconsiderwheregapsmightsensiblybefilled
bymigration,asisdoneforskilledlabour.Thiswillhelptodevelopamorenuanced
understandingofwheregapsexistandwheremigrantsmightfillthem.
AsforRecommendation1above,theGovernmentshouldembeddevelopmentcriteriainits
decisionsaboutwhocancometofilllow-skilledvacancies,shouldjobsbeidentifiedthatcan
besuitablyfilledbymigrants.Thiswillhelpensurethatthemigrantsandtheirfamiliesand
communitiesgainasmuchfromtheirtimeintheUKasruralemployersandtheeconomy.
*Recommendation3:Government,housingassociations,employersandthe
NationalHousingFederationshouldworktogethertodevelopmoreaffordableand
betterqualityhousinginruralareas
Housingavailabilityisnotanewissueforruralareas,andhasalreadybeentoucheduponby
anumberofgovernmentcommissionsandpolicies(DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocal
Government2007,RuggandRhodes2008).Increasingtheavailabilityofaffordablehousing
isapriorityforruralcommunitiesingeneral,andwouldencouragemigrantworkerstomove
toandstayinruralareas,whichcouldhavepositiveimpactsonruraleconomies.Improving
housingavailabilitycouldalsohelptoreducedifficultiesbetweenmigrantsandtheexisting
community.Competitionforhousingcancauseproblemswithcommunitycohesion,ascan
theperceivedproblemsresultingfromhomesofmultipleoccupancy;thereforeimproved
housingavailabilitycouldsupportincreasedcommunitycohesion.
Ruralmigrantsareoverwhelminglyhousedinprivaterentalaccommodation,asignificant
proportionofwhichistiedtoemployment.Localauthoritybudgetsfortheregulationof
rentalaccommodationshouldbeincreasedandring-fenced,andRegionalStrategic
MigrationPartnerships(RSMPs)shouldaudithousingadviceservicesintheirparticularareas
andfacilitatethesettingupofnewserviceswheretherearegapsinprovision.RSMPsmight
alsoconsiderworkingwithhomelessnessnon-governmentalorganisationstodeveloprent
depositguaranteeschemestargetedatnewmigrants,tohelpthosewhohavedifficultyin
findingadeposittogethousing.
*Recommendation4:Improvehousingprovisionfortransientmigrantworkersand
seasonalworkersinruralareasandreviewlegislationprotectingtenantslivingin
formsofaccommodationnotlegallydesignatedasadwellingorinunprotected
caravansites
Thereisacompellingneedforthehousingsectortopilotnewwaysofhousingtransientand
seasonalmigrantworkersinruralareas.Thismayincludethecreationofworkers’hostels–
thoughthesearefarfromidealandonlyprovideshort-termsolutions.
47
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WerecommendanurgentGovernmentreviewoflegislationinallpartsoftheUKgiventhat
asignificantnumberoftransientorseasonalmigrantsliveinaccommodationthatisnot
classifiedasadwelling(inotheripprresearchweinterviewedamigrantwholivedwithtwo
othersinashippingcontainer[Rutterforthcoming]).Theaimofthisreviewmustbeto
ensurethateveryonewithintheUKisentitledtoliveinadecentstandardof
accommodation,nomatterhowshorttheirstayhereis.
*Recommendation5:Reviewtherolethatrecruitmentagenciesplayinthe
economyandevaluatethecostsandbenefitsofthisapproachofmatchingworkers
tojobs
ItisvitalthatGovernmentcloselyexaminetherolethatprivateemploymentagenciesare
playingintheUKeconomygiventheimportancethatmigrantworkersplaceonthisissue,
andtheroleitappearstohaveindeterminingtheirdecisionsaboutwheretoliveandwork.
TheGovernmentshouldconductahigh-levelreviewtoassessthecostsandbenefitsof
usingemploymentagenciestomatchworkerstojobs.Oneoftheobjectivesshouldbeto
ensurethatthenatureofworkonoffertomigrantworkersthroughagenciesshouldnotbe
sounattractiveinthelongrunastodeterthemfromwantingtoliveandworkintheUK,or
incertainareasoftheUK(includingsomeruralsectors),whereagencyworkishighly
prevalent.
*Recommendation6:ExtendtheremitoftheGangmastersLicensingAuthority
(GLA)tocoversectorscharacterisedbyvulnerableemployment
TheGovernmentshouldextendtheremitoftheGangmastersLicensingAuthority(GLA)to
allsectorscharacterisedbyvulnerableemployment,inlinewiththerecommendationsofthe
TradesUnionCongressCommissiononVulnerableEmployment(2008).Partiallyinresponse
totheMorecambeBaycocklepickerstragedyof2004,theGovernmentsetuptheGLA,
whosemandateistoensurethewelfareandinterestsofworkersinthesectorsitcoversby
licensinglabourprovidersandensuringthattheyremainwithinthelaw.However,atpresent
theGLAonlyregulateslabourprovidersinagriculture,forestry,horticulture,shellfish
gatheringandfoodprocessingandpackaging.
ExtendingtheGLA’sremit,aswellassafeguardingtherightsofmigrantworkersand
protectinglegitimateagenciesfromunfaircompetitionbasedonexploitation,willreducethe
risksfacingruraleconomies.Crackingdownonexploitativegangmasterswillhelpimprove
thereputationofworknotinvolvinggangmasters,whichshouldimprovethesupplyof
migrantlabourandmakeitmoresustainableinthelongrun.Bringingmoresectorsunder
theremitoftheGLAalsoreducestheriskthatruraleconomiescometodependonlabour
whichisprovidedbyagenciesorgangmasterswhobreakthelaw.
Recommendation7:Stepupcoordinatedworkingtoaddresstheneedsofmigrant
workersandcommunitycohesion/integrationinruralareas
Thiswouldneedtoinvolveavarietyofactors,includinglocalauthorities,theGangmasters
LicensingAuthority,localmigrantassociations,theCitizens’AdviceBureauandJobcentre
Plusamongothers.Thisshouldinvolveexpandingandlearningfromexistingbestpractice,
includingthatdisseminatedthroughtheImprovementandDevelopmentAgency(IDeA).
Partnershipworkingisnowcommonbutinmanyplacesthereisstillroomtodomore.
Fortunately,thereisplentyofpotentialtolearnfromthosewhoarefurtherahead.In
particular,IDeArunsaknowledge-sharingprogrammeonmigration(fundedbyDCLG)and
itswebsitecontainsmanyresourcesandtoolkitsthatshowthesortsofinterventionsthat
localauthoritiestogetherwithpartnerscanmaketoimprovetheexperiencesofmigrant
workersandpromotecommunitycohesion.Ithasalsoestablisheda‘communityofpractice’,
48
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wherebythoseworkingonmigrationatalocallevelcanshareanddiscussemergingbest
practiceandissuesofconcern.Werecommendthatallplayersatalocallevelinruralareas
whointeractwithorservemigrantsaccesstheIDeAresources.
Recommendation8:Ensuretheimpactofmigrationonruraleconomiesisonthe
agendaathigh-profileeventssuchastheongoingruralsummitsonunlockingthe
potentialofruraleconomies
In2007theGovernment’sRuralAdvocatewasaskedtoproduceareportforthePrime
MinisteronunlockingthepotentialofBritain’sruraleconomies.Amongthekey
recommendationsinhisreportwastheconveningofanationalsummitandashortseriesof
regionalsummitstofocusattentionandactivityofcentral,regional,cityandlocal
governmentonreleasingthepotentialofruraleconomies(CRC2008a).Wesuggestthat
migrationinruralareasshouldbeontheagendainforumssuchasthis.
Continuingdiscussionsoftheseissueswouldallowforthevalidityofourfindingstobe
tested,policyrecommendationsappraisedandprogressedandtheneedforfuturework
evaluated.Itwouldalsoraisetheprofileoftheseissueswithawidevarietyofkey
stakeholders.Inparticular,itwouldallowforthosewithinterestsindifferentpartsofthe
picturetoworkinamorejoined-upway.Webelievethatitisvitalthatpolicymakersat
differentlevelsareremindedoftheimportanceofruraleconomiesandthecontribution
migrantsmaketotheirsuccess.
Recommendation9:Ensureissuesaroundmigration,riskandruraleconomic
performanceareincorporatedintoLocalAuthorityEconomicAssessmentsandthe
IntegratedRegionalStrategies
Inmanycasesthiswillneedtobeprecededbyanassessmentoftheextenttowhichrisks
associatedwithmigrantworkeravailabilityareanissuefortheperformanceofrural(and
indeedurban)economiesineachlocality.
Takinganationalperspectiveaswehavedoneinthisreporthasbeenhelpfulforafirst
examinationoftheissuesconcerned,andisalsousefulbecausemanyofthepolicy
responsesrequiredtoreducerisksmusttakeplaceatanationallevel.Butthenextstepmust
beforparticularruralareastoassesstheimpactsandriskstotheirarea,economyand
community.Assuch,werecommendthatlocalandregionalgovernmentcarriesout
assessmentsoftheextenttowhichrisksassociatedwithmigrantworkeravailabilityarean
issuefortheirlocaleconomy.Theseassessmentsshouldenablethemtoincorporatethese
issuesappropriatelyintotheirrespectivelocalauthorityeconomicassessmentsandregional
integratedstrategies.
Recommendation10:Takecareoverthelanguageusedbyallactorswhoworkor
commentateonmigration
Wefoundthattoughtalkscaresemployersandmakescommunityrelationsharder.Anumber
ofstakeholderswespoketoreferredtotheGovernment’scampaignofinformationabout
thepoints-basedsystem,whichwarnedthemoftheconsequencesofnotcomplying.
UniversallytheysawitasanindicatoroftheGovernment’sintenttoreducemigration,and
punishthosewhobreaktherules.Thosewhowereengagedinruralbusinessconcludedfrom
thismessagingthattheiraccesstoforeignworkerswouldbereducedinthefutureandinat
leastonecasethishadactivelycontributedtoabusinessdecisionnottoexpandproduction
inanotherwisesuccessfulbusiness,forfearofnotbeingabletogettheworkerstostaffthe
extraproduction.Scaringemployerscanbackfireintermsofrestrictingthepotentialofrural
economies.
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Toughtalkcanalsomakecommunitycohesionmoredifficultbypromotingtheideathat
migrantscauseproblemsandmigrationneedstoberestricted,andtherebymakeaplaceless
appealingformigrantcommunities.
Takingamoreconsideredviewoftheimpactsofmigrationandspeakingaboutitinamore
nuancedandpositivemannerwouldhelpavoidscaringemployersandlocalpeopleabout
migration.Itwouldhelptocreateanenvironmentinwhichthecontributionsthatmigrants
maketoruralareas(andindeedthewholeoftheUK)canbemorereadilyappreciated.
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