Holiday ecommerce
trend report.
2017 outlook
United States: Q1 2017
Preface
2016 will go down as an extraordinary year
in the history of retail and obviously in the
history of the US. The usage of mobile phones
as commerce devices reached a tipping
point. Ecommerce effectively died as a standalone channel with retailers and marketers
acknowledged that all online activity had offline
impact and all offline retail activity had online
impact. Driven by techniques like Click & Ship,
Click & Pick and Click & Collect – all activated by
mobile devices – retail in the US came roaring
back as a sector.
Rather than killing off retail, Amazon pushed into
many areas of innovation in delivery, inventory
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
and technology, in a Darwinian way moved the
entire retail industry forward. American retailers
stood up to the Amazon challenge and innovated
faster than they ever had before. They seemingly
overnight spruced up their branding, enacted
faster shipping policies, implemented new in store
signage that directed to websites. They reduced
the size of the retail spaces as they became more
like the trend-setting showrooms of the fashion
world and Apple Stores (now run by a former
fashion executive from Burberry).
Retailers grasped and monetized what they have
that Amazon envies: established relationships
with customers, real live personnel to sell
products and explain the complex ones, data
from years of connection with those customers,
and most importantly, the most effective driver
of any sort of commerce (online or offline):
a physical footprint.
In terms of ecommerce, retailers figured out that
showrooming was not such a bad idea – but you
just needed to encourage shoppers to purchase
from the website of the retailer they were in –
and doubled back on customer service both
in store and on site. They typically matched
Amazon in prices and cut off selling through
them as many did prior to this season.
Key Findings
Real-world retailing became more fun and more
experiential. Google and Microsoft opened
brand stores, just as Samsung, M&Ms and Apple
had done. Apparel retailers like J Crew celebrated
a hipper American heritage with Madewell
Stores. Stores like Supreme, Zumiez and Obey
capitalized on the urban look and retro appeal
of skateboarding. Macy’s created in-store popup shops to hop on trending emergent fashion
brands. eBay launched a magic mirror that lets
shoppers virtually try on clothing and then
enables the purchase through a touch sensitive
magic mirror. From there, it’s only one click to
purchase on PayPal.
22.8% increase in shoppers YOY
14.4% increase in purchasers YOY
50% or more of shopping on weekends
is conducted on mobile devices
$149.680: The average cart size on Black Friday:
the peak ecommerce day of Holiday 2016
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
1
Category
Trends.
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
Double-digit ecommerce gains over 2015
Online shopping and Consumer Electronics became so intertwined that it’s impossible to separate the two. So many
products facilitate online commerce and in turn, online commerce is fueling the growth of the category. The US Census
Bureau announced that second quarter 2016 ecommerce increased 15.8% YOY, while overall growth was just 2%.**
Real world retailing became more fun and more experiential. Google and
Microsoft opened brand stores, just as Samsung, M&M’s, Nike and Apple
had done. Apparel retailers like J Crew celebrated a hipper American
Heritage with Madewell Stores. Macy’s cut the size of its locations as well
as underperforming ones, and introduced in store pop-ups so that they
could be more nimble and on top of emerging fashion trends.
Shinola and Crosley, brands long gone, became hot again, as they
capitalized on the trend towards retro, non-tech cool. Shinola once sold
shoe polish and they now sell fixies (no speed bikes) and watches where
the customers get to design their own by matching dozens of faces with
bands – all made in Detroit. Crosley debuted at CES two years ago and
their portable record players are a part of the desire of Millennials and
Gen Z to capture a kinder, gentler time that is more tactile.
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
Retail technology is making huge leaps. EBay debuted magic mirrors in
innovative retailer/brand Rebecca Minkoff. The mirrors enable customers
to see what an item would look like in another size and color. Once
satisfied, the shopper simple touches the mirror to “tap & ship” either
through connection to a credit card, or PayPal.
2017 will be amazing in marketing and retailing with RFID finally coming
to fruition, voice activated home AI systems getting more entrenched
in early adopter households (as well as cars) and more stores adopting
the “retail as showroom” focus. Showrooming (in this sense) enables
better inventory management and price controls that will enable more
retailers to effectively compete with Amazon. Gen Z is emerging as the
new consumer force, and as a study from IDC shows, shopping in physical
stores (of course while they hold their smartphones in hand), is one off
their top three favorite things to do.
2
Growth
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
November Shopping
Change in shoppers YOY
10%
0%
Veteran’s Day 2016
Election Day
20%
Veteran’s Day 2015
30%
Cyber Monday
Thanksgiving
Black Friday
40%
-10%
7
M
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
T W Th F Sa Su M T
There may be a softening
of Cyber Monday due to
the fact that retailers pushed
deals earlier into November.
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
W Th F Sa Su M T W Th F Sa Su M
Date in November & day of the week
December Purchasing
Change in purchasers YOY
100%
New Year’s Eve
80%
60%
Christmas
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
12
M
13
T
14
W
15 16 17 18
Th F Sa Su
19 20
M T
21
W
22
Th
23
F
24 25 26 27 28
Sa Su M T W
Date in December & day of the week
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
29
Th
30 31
F Sa
While we expected Cyber
Monday and Black Friday to
show double-digit increases in
the number of shoppers and
purchasers, Black Friday had an
18.5% increase YOY while Cyber
Monday had an 11% increase.
There may be a softening of
Cyber Monday due to the fact
that retailers pushed deals earlier
into November: Walmart started
Black Friday on December 18, a
full week before the actual date.
There were also large increases in
shopping activity seen online the
last two weeks of the season.
This growth likely reflects the fact
that cutoff for ecommerce delivery
got closer to December 25th as
most merchants implemented
two-day delivery.
The number of purchasers
increased Friday the 23rd by a
remarkable 84.9% YOY: this is
likely due to merchants offering
next day delivery and Click &
Collect programs.
3
What & when?
Time of day & hot products
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
For key retail days, some interesting new patterns emerged. Thanksgiving saw a nearly 7X post-turkey
shopper spike from 7 – 10 PM as many stores decided to stay closed on the holiday. Shoppers who
might have ventured out, stayed close to home and shopping that evening. Black Friday morning saw a
nearly 3.6X shopper spike. Some of this was likely due to pent up demand from Thursday store closures.
What was hot:
What were they
searching for?
This year was all about hearth and home:
►► Electric fireplaces, salt lamps (made out
of Himalayan pink salt), Pioneer Woman
(homey housewares) and heaters were
among the top 100 terms searched.
The season saw the rise of a major
nostalgia binge with products
Millennials grew up with back on their
lists for their own families:
►► Barbies, Legos and Pokemon, tried and
true toy brands, were all among the top
10 toys searched.
►► Record players were more searched for
than “desktop computers”: vinyl is back!
►► Fujifilm Instax Mini 8 was more searched
for than smart TVs: the instamatic camera
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
is back with tweens and teens looking for
more tangible selfies and friend pics.
Many of the products were designed
for togetherness activities in contrast
to the more isolating technologies of
recent years:
►► The Nintendo NES, the relaunch of the
1989 classic with Donkey Kong and Space
Invaders, was the hot CE product/toy.
►► Board Games were more searched than
headphones, a term which typically
ranks in the top 10 in CE.
Newer technologies like VR, AR and
UHDTV or 4K TV, that were assumed
to be hot items of Holiday 2016,
did not rank in terms of top terms
searched on the Criteo network:
►► Drones are the one exception: they make
the top 20 terms list
►► Playstation VR was the only VR to make
the top 500 list
►► Both the Google Home and the
Amazon Echo made the top 500 list:
both companies flooded television and
YouTube with ads to establish this entirely
new product category
►► Echo was searched for even though only it
Holiday 2016’s
hot items
Ugly Christmas
sweaters
is only available to Amazon Prime members
►► The only smartphone to make the top
500 list was the iPhone 6.
Americans had a sense of humor:
“ugly Christmas sweater” and
“Christmas sweater” were combined
the most searched terms of the entire
season. They were searched for 40%
more than the next term: “Hatchimal,”
which was the Furby of 2016.
Nintendo NES
Classic Edition
Fujifilm Instax
Mini 8
Drones
4
Small devices,
big baskets.
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
3
$140
2.5
$120
$100
1.5
New Year’s Eve
2
Christmas
Items per cart
Weekends also saw peaks in the share of purchasers
on mobile. The weekend of Christmas, over one-third
of all purchasers bought via mobile phones.
Ecommerce carts
Cart volume & value last 2 weeks of the holiday season
1
0.5
0
12
M
How much was in those carts?
13
T
Items per cart
Later in the season the highest individual order value
was on Christmas Eve as shoppers spent to get their
last minute gifts.
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
19 20
M T
21
W
22
Th
23
F
24 25 26 27 28
Sa Su M T W
29
Th
30 31
F Sa
$40
$20
$0
Average cart value
Average unit price
Ecommerce carts
Grocery cart volume & value the last 2 weeks of the holiday season
Items per cart
60
$200
50
$150
40
30
$100
20
$50
10
0
$0
12
M
13
T
14
W
15 16 17 18
Th F Sa Su
19 20
M T
21
W
22
Th
23
F
24 25 26 27 28
Sa Su M T W
Date in December & day of the week
Items per cart
Average cart value
29
Th
30 31
F Sa
Average cart value
Grocery and CPG are the areas where consumer
spend online is expected to take off most. Grocery
carts online are sizeable and the push into grocery
by Walmart, Target, Instacart and Fresh Direct among
others is seen in the Criteo data. Christmas Eve cart
value was $164.80 on average, and each cart had 42.4
items. Carts were largest on the 22nd as shoppers
stocked up in advance of holiday meals.
15 16 17 18
Th F Sa Su
$60
Date in December & day of the week
Cart volume declines slightly towards Christmas as
shoppers are in “gift fill in” mode.
Cart value peaked New Year’s Eve as purchasers
splurged (or bought electronics before the tax year
ended) just before ringing in the New Year.
14
W
$80
Average cart value
Mobile use on weekends makes up over half of all
shopping. This likely relates to shoppers being out
and about and in stores, plus the fact that many US
merchants began pushing Click & Collect and Click &
Ship programs.
5
Conclusions.
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
The 3 waves of holiday ecommerce
1
2
The period from the beginning of
November through Cyber Week.
Shoppers lock in big-ticket items
at discounts and to ensure they
have hot items.
Due to the implementation
of shorter delivery windows,
ecommerce showed spikes closer
to Christmas than in past seasons:
• The current consumer
expectation is two-day delivery.
Some merchants implemented
next day and same day for the
first time in 2016.
• This was not only a mobile
shopping holiday, but also a
mobile purchasing one:
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016
3
Begins the Monday after Cyber Week
when shoppers do “fill in” shopping
and more impulse purchasing.
►► On key weekends like Christmas
weekend, mobile encompassed 60%
of all shopping
•
►► With stores closed on December 25,
36% of all sales were completed on a
mobile device
Best ecommerce
practices for brands
Adopt an “always-on” strategy with
ecommerce media since consumers
are shopping and buying in three
waves, and making purchases closer
and closer to Christmas itself.
•
The “Re-Gifting” week of December 25
through December 31. Shoppers use gift
cards and add impulse items. Electronics
are bought before the December 31 tax
deduction deadline at 11:59 pm.
Brands should maintain spend:
while the post-Christmas period
is typically one where brands go
dark with their spend, the week
between Christmas and New Year,
shoppers have gift cards and are
often willing to try new things.
“Joe Boxer Christmas Sweaters”
and “Polo Ralph Lauren Men.”
Keep in mind that consumers
search both broadly and more
specifically as the diversity of the
top search terms attests. Terms
like “TV,” “women’s boots” and
“laptops” always rank highly, while
shoppers were also searching for
“Michael Kors Handbags”,
• As consumers are often willing to
►► Brands should ensure that they have
the terms around their products
covered on paid ecommerce media,
placements on relevant category
pages as well as terms specific to
their brands.
complement a gift with related
products, brands should think
of all cross-sell opportunities to
increase impulse purchasing.
About Criteo
Criteo (NASDAQ: CRTO) delivers personalized performance marketing at an extensive scale. Measuring return on post-click sales, Criteo makes ROI
transparent and easy to measure. Criteo has over 2,200 employees in 30 offices across the Americas, EMEA and Asia-Pacific, serving 13,000 advertisers
worldwide and with direct relationships with 17,500 publishers. For more information, please visit criteo.com.
Criteo ads reach over 1.2 billion unique Internet users (comScore, January 2016).
This and future whitepapers may be found at:
www.criteo.com/resources
HOLIDAY TREND REPORT 2016