The Fall
War
of the
Mighty Ming
Locusts
Drought
in North
Rebellion
Migration
Famine
Crop Failure
Floods
Cold Climate Phase
Low Time of Sun Cycle
in South
Volcanic Eruption
Each of these boxes represents an event that occurred during the collapse
of the powerful Ming Dynasty in China. The arrows indicate cause-and-effect
connections between different parts of this complex climate-land-population system.
Cold Weather in China - A Cause-and Effect Model
The graph of China‛s population and the reading about the collapse of the Ming dynasty both
seem to point to the same conclusion - changing climate had effects on human history
To make a visual display of possible causes and effects, follow these steps:
1. Use the diagram above, or make your own on a separate piece of paper
(if you would prefer to have the boxes arranged in a different way).
2. Identify things on the diagram that you think might be causes of other things.
3. Draw arrows that go from each cause to every event that is an effect of that cause.
4. Remember that a cause can have several effects, and an effect can have several causes.
5. Make your arrows thicker if you think the causal connection is really strong.
6. Remember that an effect of one cause can in turn be the cause of another effect.
7. Write a letter (A, B, or C) next to three arrows that you would like to discuss.
8. Write a mini-essay (2-3 sentences) to explain the relationships you marked with letters:
A.
B.
C.
©2012 P Gersmehl Teachers may copy for use in their classrooms. Contact [email protected] regarding permission for any other use.
Climate as an Influence on History – Truth or Myth?
There are many possible links between weather conditions, drought, floods, locust attacks,
crop yields, rebellions, enemy invasions, population migrations, and government collapse.
Moreover, the cause-and-effect relationships are not the same everywhere. For example,
cold weather may cause floods in South China, but it may cause rivers to dry up in Arizona.
Even though things are complicated, there are some causal connections that are reasonably
consistent all over the world. On the list below, circle the large T if you are pretty sure
that the statement is generally true, and this cause-and-effect connection applies in most
places. Circle the small t if you think the statement is more often true than not. Circle the
small m if you think it is more often a myth, and the large M if you think it is almost always
a myth. Circle the ? if you are not sure, or you think it can go different ways in different
places. Be prepared to discuss your reasons for your choices.
T t ? m M 1. Lower annual temperature makes more floods in south China.
T t ? m M 2. Lower annual temperature makes dry soil in North China.
T t ? m M 3. Dry soil and withered grass (drought) make more locusts.
T t ? m M 4. Dry soil makes cooler average temperature.
T t ? m M 5. Dry soil makes better crop yields.
T t ? m M 6. Dry soil makes governments collapse.
T t ? m M 7. Food shortage makes soil dry.
T t ? m M 8. Food shortage makes rebellion more likely.
T t ? m M 9. Government collapse causes food shortages.
T t ? m M 10. Food shortage causes government collapse.
T t ? m M 11. Locust attacks cause food shortages.
T t ? m M 12. Food shortage causes migration to other places.
Now that you have evaluated a number of statements individually, try to put several
statements together into a more complete causal model. Put the following six words into
the sentences below in their most plausible order, with the primary cause first:
Locust attack Government collapse Drought Cool climate Food shortage Rebellion
__________________ usually causes ___________________ in north China;
this can cause __________________. Together they can cause __________________,
which can cause _________________. The end result might be _________________.
©2013 P Gersmehl
Teachers may copy for use in their own classrooms. For other uses, contact [email protected]