For and on behalf of
Amber Valley Borough Council
Supporting Statement
Potential Housing Delivery Rates at Strategic Site Release
Sites AV7 and AV8 – Ripley - Codnor
Prepared by
DLP Planning Consultants
Sheffield
December 2013
Amber Valley Borough Council
Prepared by:
……………………………………..
Jim Lomas
BA ( Hons) MRTPI
Approved by:
…………………………………….
Jim Lomas
BA (Hons) MRTPI
Date:
December 2013
2
DLP Planning Consultants
11 Paradise Square
Sheffield
S1 2DE
Tel: 0114 228 9190
Fax: 0114 272 1947
DLP Consulting Group disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of matters outside
the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence. This
report is confidential to the client and DLP Planning Consultants accepts no responsibility of whatsoever
nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon
the report at their own risk.
Amber Valley Borough Council
Contents
1.0
2.0
Page
INTRODUCTION
DEVELOPMENT PHASING AND DELIVERY
Appendix 1 - Potential Housing Delivery Trajectory 2014 -2028
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5
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Amber Valley Borough Council
1.0
INTRODUCTION
1.1
This short report has been prepared to assist in the consideration and assessment of
the potential delivery of the Ripley Codnor Strategic housing land release planned for
between 2008 and 2028 as specified in the emerging Core Strategy for the Borough.
Assumptions:
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1059 dwellings on whole site area
Plan period from 2008 – 2028 – 20 years
2014 -2028 – 14 years remain at time of preparation of this statement
1059 dwellings to be delivered over 14 years = requirement of 75 dwellings pa
Outline Planning Permission obtained Mid 2014
Reserve matters submission all sites– Late 2014
Reserve matters determination Mid 2015
Discharge Conditions and lawful starts commence Mid 2016/Early 2017
2016 – 2028 = 12 years -1059/12 years = requirement of 88 dwellings pa
Up to 5 house building developers constructing the parcels of land ( 2 northern sites at Ripley/
3 sites east of Condor (Developers limiting share of housing numbers of approximately 210
units per developer at Codnor)
1.2
An initial assumption had been made that all the potential developers will all deliver
housing at the same time. In reality this is unlikely and the delivery of housing is likely to
be phased and delivered at a rate which the market can accommodate. It is unlikely that
developers will seek to flood the market with 150 new dwellings per annum (5
developers x 30 dwellings pa per site) in a relatively static and potentially
underperforming housing market area.
1.3
A realistic phasing of the sites is an option is therefore explored in this report.
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Amber Valley Borough Council
2.0
DEVELOPMENT PHASING AND DELIVERY
North Site Ripley
2.1
This is an attractive location for housing development, particularly land to the north of
proposed link road and east of Derbyshire Police HQ. Good links to local amenities,
including retail facilities, open space, formal sports and recreation provision exist or will
be provided in due course. Good access to open countryside is available. Opportunities
for high quality aspects, particularly from the northern parcel of land exist.
2.2
2 separate sites available
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Northern section – Total units 313
Southern site – total Unit 128
(See plan below)
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Amber Valley Borough Council
2.3
Given the separation distance between the sites, together with the overall high quality of
the planned and current environments relative to the land, it is anticipated that 2
developers could potentially promote the individual parcels of land (Northern Site and
land south of proposed link Road) simultaneously. However, for the purpose of this
assessment, it is assumed that the northern site will commence early in the process
given the attractive nature and separation from adjoining proposed land uses.
2.4
The delivery of housing is therefore adjusted to take account of other housing being
delivered to the market and the development of adjoining activities. In this case, the
delivery of housing on the southern portion of the Ripley section is likely to be delayed
being delayed until post 2021 as a result of other housing sites being promoted in the
locality and the need to avoid saturating the market.
2.5
Equally, the potential for development disruption on land to the South ( Westerman site
and Morrison’s retail proposal) are also likely to be factors delaying commencement at
this site.
2.6
The housing site south of the Link Road also lies close to the potential employment
expansion area and so the release may well be delayed until the outcome of the
employment land uses and development are known and designed.
2.7
Consideration needs to be given to the delivery of housing immediately to the south at
the “Westerman” site off Nottingham Road.
2.8
The potential for 3 separate housing sites being promoted in the same geographic area
simultaneously is probably unattractive to the developer as it potentially could saturate
the housing market in this immediate locality.
2.9
Given the merits of the northern site adjacent to the Police HQ and separation to the
Waterman’s proposal, it is considered that these two projects will be the higher priority
for the development industry, therefore leaving the southern proportion adjacent to the
Link Road being delivered later in the plan period. Equally as the residential
development proposed off Nottingham Road by the Westerman Group has a recognised
house builder committed to the site, an early start of such a project is likely in the event
of planning permission being obtained.
Assessment :
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Northern site at 313 dwellings = 11 year build out at 30 dwellings pa assuming single developer
at this site.
The site is very attractive location and anticipated to be highly desirable to a house builder.
Anticipated start 2016/2017 – completion 2028
Southern site at 128 dwellings = 4 year build out at 30 dwellings pa assuming single developer
at this site
Assume at 2021/2022 start – completion 2025/2026*
(*any delay by 2 years will still leave the opportunity to deliver the site within the plan period)
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Amber Valley Borough Council
South Site – Codnor
2.10
The site east of Codnor represents an attractive environment which to accommodate
new residential development. The sites afford good links to schools, local shops and
open space provision. Attractive views to open countryside and footpath networks are to
be provided. Good links with the A61 and Nottingham/Nuttall/Kimberley/Langley Mill/M1
are available.
(see Site below)
2.11
2.12
This larger parcel of land is clearly linked and can be seen as a single land mass with
no significant demarcation.
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Amber Valley Borough Council
2.13
Given the size and opportunities afforded, it is still considered that anywhere between 2
and 4 house builders may take an interest in such a location.
2.14
The likelihood of a single house builder taking a larger plot of up to 617 units is unlikely
and this would potentially expose the developers to enhanced financial risk.
2.15
For the purposes of this assessment it is assumed 3 developers will express an interest
in this site.
Assumptions:
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Total dwellings 617
Assume 3 developers
Average house building rates at 30 pa
Site effectively split into 3 parcels of land:
Northern (Alfreton Road)
2.16
This is an attractive parcel of land and represents a suitable environment to deliver
housing. It will have a high visual profile within the Alfreton Road street scene and
hence market appeal from a sales perspective. Access is available from the Link Road
which is likely to be accessible early in the development of this strategic highway given
proximity to Alfreton Road roundabout.
2.17
This area of land is likely to be promoted and anticipated to deliver housing earlier in the
plan period due to its higher profile nature and early access opportunities.
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2016/2017 - commence development following approval of Reserved Matters submission.
Assume 206 dwellings at 30 pa = 6.8 years building ( 7 years build programme)
Date of delivery - 2017-2024
Central (Goose Lane)
2.18
This site is centrally located with the East Codnor site. Whilst it will afford access to the
proposed Link Road, it is considered to be a less visible parcel of land and hence more
difficult to promote early in the plan period. Equally, access to the site will be restricted
to adjoining residential sites and one point of access to the Link Road. It is therefore
reliant on other land and highway infrastructure being delivered.
2.19
Equally, in the event that land to the immediate south and north are being developed,
there is risk of the locality becoming saturated with new housing development,
something which is unlikely to prove attractive to the house building industry.
2.20
Access could be available from the Link road or adjoining parcels of housing land
(subject to planning conditions/legal agreements/final position of access points to link
road/land sales particulars).
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Amber Valley Borough Council
2.21
Given the higher profile nature of the adjoining sites, potential constraints to early
release, this parcel of land is likely to be developed later in the plan period
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2021/2022 commence development
Assume 206 dwellings at 30 pa = 6.8 years of development (7 years build programme)
Date of delivery -2021-2028
Southern (Nottingham Road)
2.22
This is a very attractive parcel of land and represents a suitable environment to deliver
housing. It will have a high visual profile fronting Nottingham Road and the Link Road
and hence market appeal from a sales perspective.
2.23
This area of land is likely to be promoted and anticipated to deliver housing earlier in the
plan period due to its higher profile nature and high quality environment. Access is
available to both Nottingham Road and the Proposed Link Road.
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2016/2017 - commence development
Assume 206 dwellings at 30 pa = 6.8 years of development (7 years )
Date of delivery - 2017- 2024
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Appendix 1 – Potential Housing Delivery Trajectory 2014 -2028
Ripley Codnor Housing Sites ( AV7 and AV8)
Date- 08
2000Site Area
Ripley –
housing
delivery
(cumulative)
Codnor –
housing
delivery
(cumulative)
North
Site
South
site
North
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
30
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
313
30
60
90
120
128
90
120
150
180
206
802
892
982
1033
1059
30
60
90
120
150
Central
South
Cumulative
Total for all
sites
180
206
30
60
30
60
90
120
150
180
206
90
180
270
360
450
570
712
28
29
30