Megapolitan Areas:
America’s New Market Geography
April 10, 2006
Robert Lang, Ph.D. Virginia Tech
NMHC Research Forum
Houston, TX
What’s in This Talk?
z
z
z
z
z
Review of American Megapolitan Area
Geography
Close Up Look at Arizona’s Sun Corridor
Population, Employment, Construction and
Investment Projections for the Sun
Corridor
Projections of US Housing Demand
Implications of the Research
Talk Overview
z
z
z
z
We Have a New Market Geography—The
Megapolitan Area
We Can Project Housing Demand to 2040
by Type and by Megapolitan Area
Megapolitans Comprise About a Fifth of the
US but have 70 percent of US Population
Megapolitans are Projected to Receive
About Three Quarters of New Development
by 2040
Megapolitans in The News
USA Today July 2005
Megapolitans in The News
Business 2.0 November 2005
Business 2.0
Megapolitan Area Centerfold
2005 Megapolitan Geography
“Megapolitan 2.0” Geography
Megapolitans 2.0 at a Glance
Megapolitan Area
Megapolitan
States
Anchor Metros
Signature
Industry
00 and 04 Pres.
Vote
AZ
Phoenix/Tucson
Home Building
Republican
OR,WA
Seattle/Portland
Aerospace
Democratic
FL
Miami/Orlando
Tourism
Dem./Rep.
Front Range
CO,WY
Denver/
Colorado Springs
Trade
Republican
Great Lakes
Crescent
IL,IN,KY,MI,
OH,PA,WV,WI
Chicago/Detroit
Manufacturing
Democratic
AL,FL,LA,MS,TX
Houston/
New Orleans
Energy
Republican
KS,MO,OK,TX
Dallas/
Oklahoma City
Telecom
Republican
CT,DE,MA,MD,ME,N
HNJ,NY,PA,RI,VA,WV
New York/
Washington, DC
Finance
Democratic
CA,NV
San Francisco/
Sacramento
High Tech
Democratic
AL,GA,NC,TN,SC,VA
Atlanta/Charlotte
Consumer Banking
Republican
CA,NV
Los Angeles/
Las Vegas
Entertainment
Democratic
Arizona
Sun Corridor
Cascadia
Florida Peninsula
Gulf Coast
I-35 Corridor
Megalopolis
NorCal
Piedmont
SoCal
Megapolitan Area
Population and Growth Rates
Megapolitan Area
2004 Population*
00-04 Growth Rate
Arizona Sun Corridor
5.0
12.6
Cascadia
7.6
5.5
14.9
9.2
Front Range
3.9
6.6
Great Lakes
40.6
1.9
9.9
5.8
I-35 Corridor
15.5
7.4
Megalopolis
54.5
3.1
NorCal
15.1
4.6
Piedmont
19.3
6.7
SoCal
22.5
7.5
Megapolitan Total
208.8
5.0
United States
293.7
4.4
Florida Peninsula
Gulf Coast
*Population in Millions
Source: Census Bureau
Types of Urban Complexes
Types
Description
Examples
Twin City
Two principal cities that physically
connect to form a binary core to a
metropolitan area
Minneapolis/St. Paul,
Tampa/ St. Petersburg
Metroplex
Two or more metropolitan areas that
share overlapping suburbs but the main
principal cities do not touch
Dallas/Ft. Worth,
Washington/ Baltimore
“Corridor”
Megapolitan Area
Two or more metropolitan areas with
anchor principal cities between 75 and
150 miles apart that form an extended
linear urban area along an Interstate
Arizona Sun Corridor
(Phoenix/Tucson),
SanSac (San Francisco/
Sacramento)
“Galactic”
Megapolitan Area
Three or more metropolitan areas with
main principal cities over 150 miles
apart that form an urban web over a
broad area that is laced with
Interstates
Piedmont, Great Lakes
Crescent
Megapolitan Pair
Two megapolitan areas that are
proximate and occupy common cultural
and physical environments and
maintain dense business linkages
Megalopolis and Great
Lakes Crescent, Sun
Corridor and SoCal
20th Century
Metropolitan Form
21st Century
Metropolitan Form
Virginia’s
Dominion
Corridor
Arizona’s
Sun
Corridor
Sun Corridor
Types of Urban Realms
Types
Description
Realms
Urban Core
Original core of metropolitan
development. Cores are dense
and often built out.
Central Valley
Tucson Valley
Favored
Quarter
The most affluent realm
containing upscale housing,
retail, and office space.
Northeast Valley
Foothills
Maturing
Suburbs
Rapidly developing suburbs
with mature older sections and
booming edges.
East Valley
West Valley
Emerging
Exurbs
The most scattered and
detached urban development in
the region. Exurbs contain the
most affordable housing.
Mid Corridor
Northwest Valley
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley
The Sun Corridor’s
“Trillion Dollar Question”
Projection
Sun Corridor 2040
% Change/Added
Population
9.3M
109.7
Employment
4.9M
93.4
No. of Housing Units
3.7M
146.2
Com./Public Sq. Feet
2.4B
226.4
Housing
--
$541.1B
Commercial/Public
--
$482.3B
Demographic
Construction
Investment
Source: Arthur C. Nelson,
Virginia Tech Megapolitan Projections
US Future Housing Shares
Housing Type
Apartment
Owner Attached
Small Lot (<7k sf)
Large Lot (>7k sf)
2003
24%
11%
15%
51%
2040
30%
20%
30%
20%
From Arthur C. Nelson, Virginia Tech
Source: 2003 data from American Housing Survey 2003. 2040
figures derived from preference surveys.
US Demand in 2040
50% Attached (apartment, TH, condo)
30% Detached small/cluster/zero-lot
20% Conventional subdivision
80% = Traditional Urban Density
True in all the Megapolitans
Implications
z
z
z
z
There is a New Scale for Planning and
Investment
Understanding Where the Cores will Develop
Within Each Urban Realm is Essential
Understanding Demographic Trends and
How they Play Out at the Megapolitan Scale
is Also Essential.
Multifamily Housing Will Play a Key Role in
the Megapolitan Future
www.mi.vt.edu