ICES Journal of Marine Science, 58: 1053–1062. 2001 doi:10.1006/jmsc.2001.1094, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in relation to survey coverage and the physical environment Ole Thomas Albert, Einar M. Nilssen, Kjell H. Nedreaas, and Agnes C. Gundersen Albert, O. T., Nilssen, E. M., Nedreaas, K. H., and Gundersen, A. C. 2001. Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in relation to survey coverage and the physical environment. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 58: 1053–1062. Based on annual bottom-trawl surveys in the Barents Sea and Svalbard area in 1983–2000, variations in distribution and abundance of age 1 Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides Walbaum) are described. The surveys showed high contrasts in abundance during the period, with extremely low abundance in 1990–1995 associated with a northerly displacement of the distribution within the survey area. A reduced abundance was not reflected in VPA-based estimates of total abundance of 1-group halibut. We conclude that the survey covered a varying proportion of the total distribution area. Survey abundance, the range of distribution within the survey area, and the proportion covered by the surveys were all negatively correlated with temperature in the Atlantic Water of the Spitsbergen Current. Possible mechanisms linking survey results to the physical environment are discussed. 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Keywords: distribution, Greenland halibut, interannual variation, recruitment, yearclass strength. Published electronically 15 August 2001. O. T. Albert: Norwegian Institute of Fisheries and Aquaculture, N-9005 Tromsø, Norway. E. M. Nilssen: Norwegian College of Fishery Science, University of Tromsø, N-9037, Tromsø, Norway. K. H. Nedreaas: Institute of Marine Research, PO Box 1870, Nordnes, N-5024, Bergen, Norway. A. C. Gundersen: Møre Research, Section of Fisheries, PO Box 5075, N-6021, A r lesund, Norway. Correspondence to O. T. Albert: e-mail: [email protected] Introduction Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) is distributed in Arctic and boreal waters on both sides of the North Atlantic (Fedorov, 1971). The stocks support important fisheries in relatively deep waters off Canada, Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, and Norway (Godø and Haug, 1989; Bowering and Brodie, 1995). On the eastern side the distribution is more or less continuous along the continental slope from Faroe Islands and Shetland to Svalbard (Whitehead et al., 1986; God and Haug, 1989). The stock structure of Northeast Atlantic Greenland halibut has not been studied in detail and for management purposes a pragmatic definition is used based on statistical areas. The Northeast Arctic stock is thus found along the slope off Norway, including Svalbard, and in the Barents Sea. 1054–3139/01/051053+10 $35.00/0 The stock is commercially exploited using gillnets and longlines on the spawning grounds and by otter trawls in the Barents Sea and along the Norwegian slope northwards to Spitsbergen. Based on a decline in estimated stock size and indications of recruitment failure, the fishery has been highly regulated since 1992 (Hylen and Nedreaas, 1995; ICES, 2000). All research vessel surveys in areas where young fish are normally distributed indicated a dramatic decline in abundance of younger age groups during the late 1980s. Greenland halibut spawn along the continental slope between Lofoten and Bear Island, and to some extent south of this area (Godø and Haug, 1989; Albert et al., 2001). Eggs and larvae drift north and eastwards and juveniles are generally found in the Barents Sea and in Svalbard waters (Godø and Haug, 1989). Spawning peaks in December in the main spawning area, but 2001 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea 1054 O. T. Albert et al. spawning also occurs in nearby localities during summer (Albert et al., 2001). Between-year variations in location and timing of spawning are not well understood. The drift of eggs and larvae is only inferred from the known juvenile distribution. Preliminary modelling of larval drift (A r dlandsvik et al., 1999) has shown that both the timing of spawning and the subsequent bathymetric distribution of eggs and larvae associated with variations in ocean currents can have a major impact on the supply of recruits to different parts of the nursery area. Understanding egg and larval drift may therefore be a key to understanding the recruitment process. Our objective is to describe the geographic distribution and abundance of recruits and to investigate whether the general decline in juvenile abundance was associated with changes in the physical environment or in the distribution of juveniles. We also evaluate if the surveys covered a consistent proportion of the total juvenile abundance. The results are discussed in relation to possible mechanisms of biological– physical interactions. Materials and methods Surveys and sampling Greenland halibut data were collected during annual bottom-trawl surveys designed for estimating shrimp biomass in the Barents Sea and Svalbard area, 1983– 2000. Two surveys were conducted in each year, one in the central and western Barents Sea and another from south of Bear Island and northwards along the western shelf and inside the Svalbard fjords. The Barents Sea surveys were conducted over three weeks within the period 20 April–25 May. The Svalbard surveys were usually run within the period 15 July–30 August, except for 1991 (no survey), 1992 (extension to midSeptember), and 1993–1996 (between 20 May and 20 June, as an extension of the Barents Sea survey). A stratified random survey design has been applied (Aschan and Sunnanå, 1997). For the analysis of Greenland halibut data, five new strata were defined a posteriori (Figure 1), using only hauls within 200–500 m depth corresponding to the main depth range of 1-group (Albert et al., 1997). The Barents Sea surveys mainly sampled areas 1 and 2. The Svalbard surveys mainly covered areas 3 and 4. Area 5 was sampled only occasionally, partly because in the 1980s 80N was set as the normal northern limit of the Svalbard surveys. In the 1990s, the intention was to cover the area every year, but coverage was often restricted owing to dense drift ice. A Campellen 1800 shrimp trawl was used on all cruises. No corrections were applied to account for gear changes throughout the time-series (Table 1). For each haul, the catch by species in weight and numbers was recorded. Total length-frequency distributions (to the nearest cm below) were obtained either by measuring the entire catch or from a random subsample. All catches of Greenland halibut without length distribution were treated as missing observations and not included in the analyses. Number of accepted hauls per area varied between years (Table 2). Only area-year combinations with at least ten trawls were used in the analysis. There is no comparable time-series for Greenland halibut from the slope and basins east and northeast of Svalbard. Analyses All length distributions were first converted to logarithmic catch rates of 1-group: where mi is number of fish of length i in the sample, M is total number of fish in the sample, C is catch in number, d is towed distance (nm), and min1 and max1 define the length range of the 1-group. The appropriate length range could be easily distinguished as a separate mode in the overall length-frequency distributions by month (Figure 2). The min1 and max1 were derived from the aggregated monthly distributions as the smallest length observed and the one with lowest observed frequency between 14 and 19 cm. Mean catch rate in year k for the whole survey area, was calculated as weighted mean of the means within each area A (j=1–4): where the weighting factor Aj is the approximate surface (in nm2; Table 3), Njk is number of hauls, and nk is the number of areas sampled. Area 5 was excluded because of lack of time-series data. Thus, nk is 4 for all years except 1991, when area 4 was not sampled (nk =3). Another estimate of 1-group abundance (N1vpa) was calculated from VPA estimates taken from the most recent assessment (ICES, 2001). Because juvenile age groups (up to and including ages 5–6) are poorly represented in the assessment, numbers at age 1 were only calculated for year classes up to 1992, for which VPA estimates for age 7 were available. When backcalculating from numbers at age 7, we used the catchat-age matrix, natural mortality (M) of 0.15 for all ages, and the standard VPA equations. The number at age 1 from VPA is an estimate of absolute number of fish. For direct comparison, a geometric mean estimate of absolute abundance (N1surv) within areas 1–4 was calculated as: Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut 1055 60°E 85°N 50 0 40 20 10 30 5 80 4 1 500 m 75 3 0 20 m 2 70 Figure 1. Bathymetric map of the Barents Sea. Areas 1–5 are referred to as Hopen Deep, Southern Barents Sea, Bear Island, West Spitsbergen, and North Spitsbergen, respectively. The South Cape hydrographical transect is located westwards from the southern tip of Spitsbergen. The archipelago in the northeast is Franz Josefs Land. N1vpa =[exp(R z 1k)1] · A/a (3) where A is area (nm2) of areas 1–4 combined, and a is the swept area of a 1-nm haul. The effective fishing width was set to 25 m, i.e. between the door spread and the wing spread. The survey-based and VPA-based estimates of absolute numbers at age 1 are measures of abundance in the survey area and in the total distribution area, respectively. The ratio may thus be considered as an index of the part of the stock sampled by the survey. Because the two estimates depend on widely different assumptions, they may not be directly comparable. Therefore, the ratio was only used to consider trends in survey coverage of the juvenile distribution. As a proxy for the influence of the physical environment on the distribution and abundance of juvenile Greenland halibut, the temperature in the core of Atlantic Water between 50 and 200 m depth in the South Cape hydrographical transect was chosen (Aure, 2000; data for 2000 from Blindheim, pers. comm.). Survey abundance and distribution were compared with the temperature in the year prior to the survey (t0; when the year class was present as 0-group), in the survey year (t1), and to the mean of these two (t01). Results 1-group Greenland halibut was caught in all areas (Table 3), but most frequently and in greatest numbers in area 4 (West Spitsbergen) and area 1 (Hopen Deep). In the more southerly areas 3 (Bear Island) and 2 (Southern Barents Sea), 1-group was only caught in 40% 1056 O. T. Albert et al. Table 1. Ship, trawl equipment and procedures used in each period and survey area (BS: Barents Sea; Sv: Svalbard). Survey area/period Ship Length (Loa) Trawl Ground gear Mesh size Wings Belly and bag Codend lining Doors BS 1983–1991 Sv 1983–1990 MS ‘‘Michael Sars’’ 48 m Campellen 1800 Rubber bobbins (1983–1988) Rockhopper1 (1989–1996) BS and Sv 1992 MT ‘‘Gargia’’ 47 m idem Rockhopper1 BS and Sv 1993–2000 RV ‘‘Jan Mayen’’ 64 m idemidem 80 mm 60 and 40 mm 10 mm (4 m length) Vaco combination doors, 1500 kg 40 m Approx. 5 m 60 min (1983–1989) 30 min (1990–1991) 3 knots (1.5 m s 1) idem idem idem Steinshamn doors, 2050 kg idem idem 30 min idem idem 20 mm (8 m length) idem idem idem Sweep length Vertical opening2 Haul duration3 Towing speed idem idem 20 min 1 Engås and Godø (1989). Measured with SCANMAR wireless gear control system. 3 Standard duration was adjusted depending on bottom area suitable for trawling. 2 and 20% of the surveys, respectively. In years with positive observations in those areas, the frequency of occurrence was approximately half of the value in areas 1 and 4. In the far northern area 5 (North Spitsbergen), young Greenland halibut dominated many of the catches. The largest catches were found within the small trench from the continental slope towards the sound between the two main islands (Figure 1). Interannual variations in 1-group abundance were large, apparently with a high degree of autocorrelation Table 2. Number of trawl hauls by year and area within the depth range 200–500 m. Year 1 2 Area 3 4 6 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 28 36 48 54 42 51 46 51 86 44 28 34 42 61 83 42 45 42 44 21 61 63 55 53 57 70 132 70 45 38 53 50 40 42 35 49 17 26 26 29 14 9 35 40 52 41 33 38 28 26 13 36 17 29 40 52 45 68 54 45 50 96 . 80 63 75 102 58 65 91 75 68 1 2 . 7 1 . 2 . . 8 . 5 . 11 10 12 10 2 in the time-series (Figure 3). Notably, there were two successive years with particularly high abundance (1987–1988) and five successive years with very low abundance (1991–1995). In 1990–1997, mean catch rates were significantly less than in any of the years 1984–1988 (t-tests, p<0.05). After 1995, catch rates increased slowly, and in 1999 approached the moderate level observed in 1984–1986. The temperature in the Atlantic West-Spitsbergen Current varied during the period between 2.9 and 5.1C, with a mean of 4.0C (Figure 3). Mean catch rates were negatively correlated with temperature, especially with the two-years running mean temperature (t01) during the first two years of life (Spearman, R= 0.75, n=18, p<0.01; Figure 4). Figure 5 shows estimated numbers at age 1 back-calculated from numbers at age 7 from the most recent stock assessment (ICES, 2001). Although these VPA-based numbers were not correlated with any of the temperature series (t0, t1, or t01; Spearman, p>0.2), there appears to be a similar periodicity, with increasing abundance in periods of increasing temperatures. Catch rates within each area showed the same general trend as for the weighted mean of areas 1–4 (Figure 6), with two years of particularly high abundance in most areas (1987–1988) and five years of extremely low abundance in all areas (1991–1995). The negative correlation between catch rates and temperature was significant in all areas, especially with t01 (Spearman, R: 0.49 to 0.75, n=17 or 18, p<0.05). Between-year variability was much higher in areas 1–3 than in area 4 (CV of mean catch rates areas 1–4: 209, 281, 165, and 82, respectively). This was also reflected in the number of years with positive catches within each Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut Percentage 4 3 2 1 0 4 3 2 1 0 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 April n = 4976 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May n = 12 910 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 June n = 600 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Length (1 cm units) 4 3 2 1 0 5 4 3 2 1 0 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1057 July n = 6340 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 August n = 8380 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 September n = 296 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Length (1 cm units) Figure 2. Length-frequency distributions of Greenland halibut by month (all years combined). 6 0.8 5 0.6 4 0.4 3 0.2 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 2 1985 1983 0 Temperature (°C) Mean catch rate 1 Year Figure 3. Catch rate (closed diamonds) of 1-group and temperature (C; open squares) in the South Cape Transect. area (Table 3). In some area-year combinations, presence may be based on very few observations. For areas 1–3, Table 4 provides the results of Fisher’s exact test of significance on pairwise comparisons of years with and years without catches of 1-group. The presence in area 1 in 1984–1988 and 1999 was significantly different from the absence in 1992–1995. On the other hand, the presence in 1983, 1990, 1991, 1998, and 2000 was not significantly different from the absence in 1992–1995. The presence in 1984–1987 in area 3 was significantly different from the absence in 1991–1994, and the presence in 1987–1988 in area 2 was significantly different from most other years. The extension of the distribution in each year may be classified according to the presence or absence in the survey area from northwest to southeast (Figure 7). In 1992–1995 the distribution was very narrow and restricted to the northeast (area 4), whereas in 1984– 1990, and particularly in 1987–1988, the distribution extended much wider southwards. The south-eastwards extension of distribution was highly positively correlated with mean catch rate per year (Spearman, R=0.88, n=18, p<0.01) and consequently negatively correlated with mean temperature at age 0–1 (Spearman, R=0.67, n=18, p<0.01). Figure 8 shows the temperature difference between years with different distribution patterns. Comparable time-series for the occurrence of 1-group Greenland halibut in areas further away from the spawning grounds (northeast Greenland, north of the Hopen Deep and along the slope and trenches between Spitsbergen and Franz Josefs land) do not exist. North of Spitsbergen (area 5), high frequencies of occurrence (>50%) were observed in all four years sampled with at least ten trawls (Table 3) and juveniles were also recorded in six out of eight years with one to nine trawls (Table 2). The swept area estimates of absolute abundance within the survey area were only a small fraction of the VPA-based estimates, varying from <0.5% in 1990–1993 to 24% in 1988 (Figure 9). Thus, the ratio of the two increased when the 1-group was widely distributed to the south or southeast, i.e. for year classes that experienced low temperatures at age 0 and 1 (Figure 10). Discussion Distribution and abundance The main pattern in the abundance of 1-group Greenland halibut in the survey area during 1983–2000 was a shift from high abundance in 1984–1988 to low 1058 O. T. Albert et al. Table 3. Total number of hauls and occurrence of 1-group Greenland halibut within each area, all years combined (only area-year combinations with at least 10 successful hauls within 200–500 m depth are included). Area: Number of hauls Number of surveys Number of years with 1-group catches Frequency of occurrence (%) All years Years with 1-group catches Approx. area (in 1000 nm2) 1 2 3 863 18 14 978 18 4 500 17 7 13.2 15.9 24.3 1.6 7.8 37.3 1127 17 17 3.4 9.1 11.5 17.6 17.6 9.7 5 All 43 4 4 3511 18 18 58.1 58.1 2.5 10.5 16.3 85.3 1200 Percentage of area-mean 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 Hopen Deep (1) Southern Barents Sea (2) Bear Island (3) West-Spitsbergen (4) 800 400 0.2 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 0 0.3 1983 Mean catch rate 4 Year Figure 6. Catch rate of 1-group by area. 0.1 0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Mean temperature (°C) at age 0–1 40 4 30 20 3 10 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 2 1981 0 1979 6 5 50 Temperature (°C) Numbers-at-age 1 (×10 ) Figure 4. Catch rate of 1-group vs. mean temperature at age 0–1. Year Figure 5. VPA-based numbers-at-age 1 (closed diamonds) and mean temperature (open squares) at age 0–1. abundance in 1990–1995 coinciding with a gradual contraction and a north-westerly shift in distribution (Figure 7). In 1992–1995 1-group Greenland halibut was only found in the West-Spitsbergen area and (when sampled) also in North Spitsbergen. The periodic appearance of recruits in the different areas suggests that the southern edge of the distribution area pulsated southwards and northwards. Comparing results from previous expeditions, Haug and Gulliksen (1982) also found that juvenile Greenland halibut may only be present periodically in an area. The reduced survey abundance in later years was not reflected in the VPA-based abundance estimates of age 1. On the contrary, the VPA-based estimate was higher in 1990–1993 than in 1986–1989. Thus, the period of low abundance and narrow northwesterly distribution in the surveys was associated with relatively high total abundance. This indicates that the reduced survey abundance was due to changes in distribution and/or catchability and not to reduced year-class strength. The higher ratio of survey abundance to VPA-based estimates in 1984– 1988 than in 1990–1993 suggests that juvenile Greenland halibut was largely unavailable to the surveys during the latter years. The coverage of the distribution by a bottom-trawl survey has both a horizontal and a vertical component. Juvenile Greenland halibut is largely a pelagic feeder (Haug and Gulliksen, 1982; Bowering and Lilly, 1992; Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut 1059 Table 4. Tests of significance of presence–absence data for 1-group Greenland halibut per area and year. For each area, each year of presence was tested against each year of absence by means of Fisher’s exact test (0: not significant; 1–3: significant at 0.1, 0.05 or 0.001 level respectively). Years significant at 0.1 level or better, in at least half of the tests were classified as years of significant presence (+) or absence (). Area Presence 83 84 86 89 90 91 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1985 1987 1988 1999 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 Significance 3 94 95 96 97 98 00 Significance 0 3 2 3 3 3 1 0 0 2 1 0 3 0 0 3 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 3 2 3 3 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . + + + + + + . . + + . + . . + + . 0 3 1 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 Significance 2 Absence 92 93 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1990 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . . . . . . . 0 3 3 0 0 3 2 0 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0 3 3 0 . . . . . . . Significance 0 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 3 2 0 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 + + + + . . . Area Distribution pattern 2 – – + – + 3 – + + + + 1 + + + + + + + + + + 4 + – – – – – – – – – – + – 4: Wide, Southeast + + – – – – – – – – + – 3: Wide, South + + + + – – – – + + + + + 2: Narrow, North + + + + + + + + + + + + 1: Narrow, Northwest 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 Year Figure 7. Presence (+) and absence () of 1-group by area and year. Hatched squares indicate outcome of significance tests (cf. Table 4). Empty cells represent missing values. The thick line indicates the extension of 1-group distribution from northwest to southeast and corresponding distribution patterns are defined in the right column. Michalsen and Nedreaas, 1998) and its pelagic distribution may vary with availability of squids and pelagic fish. Although the extent of vertical distribution is virtually unknown, it seems unlikely that foraging mechanisms operating on an hourly or daily time scale could explain patterns that are consistent over several 1060 O. T. Albert et al. Physical-biological coupling Distribution pattern 4 n=4 3 n=4 2 n=6 1 n=4 3 5 4 Mean temperature (°C) at age 0–1 0.3 40 0.2 30 20 0.1 10 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 0 1984 0 1983 6 50 Ratio Numbers-at-age 1 (×10 ) Figure 8. Mean temperature at age 0–1 (s.e.) for different distribution patterns (cf. Figure 7). Year Rank of ratio Figure 9. Survey-based (closed diamonds) and VPA-based (open circles) numbers-at-age 1 and the ratio (broken line) between the two. 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 1 2 3 4 Index of distribution 0 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Mean temperature (°C) Figure 10. Rank order of the ratio of survey-based and VPA-based numbers-at-age 1 compared vs. (left panel) distribution pattern (cf. Figure 7) and (right panel) temperature at age 0–1. years. The most likely explanation for the observed changes is thus that the 1-group is largely distributed outside the geographical area covered by the surveys, and more so during the first half of the 1990s. The Northeast Atlantic Current that transports the spawning products of Greenland halibut splits into three major branches on its way northward (Dragesund and Gjøsæter, 1988; Blindheim, 1989; Loeng, 1989). One branch enters into the Barents Sea south of Bear Island, while the other continues northwards as the Spitsbergen Current. The water on the western side of the Spitsbergen Current leaves off into the Norwegian Sea directing towards Greenland. The remaining current follows the continental slope north of Spitsbergen and may enter the Barents Sea from the north. The relative volume transport in each branch is highly variable and depends on the weather conditions (A r dlandsvik and Loeng, 1991). Survey abundance, extent of distribution in the survey area and the ratio of survey abundance to VPA abundance were all negatively correlated with the mean temperature in the Spitsbergen Current at the South Cape transect experienced during the first two years of life. Haug and Gulliksen (1982) surveyed West Spitsbergen waters in 1979–1981 and found much higher 1-group abundance in 1979 than in the two succeeding years. This difference also coincides with a distinctly lower mean temperature (at age 0 and 1) in 1979 (Figure 5). The temperature in the Spitsbergen Current may reflect the temperature in the Northeast Atlantic Current or may be an indication of the volume transport in the current. The mechanisms linking the distribution of juvenile Greenland halibut to temperature in the Spitsbergen Current may thus be related to the flux (as affecting drift of spawning products), to temperature (as affecting thermotactic migration towards more favourable temperatures), or indirectly to other factors that may be influenced by these factors (such as spawning location and abundance of predators and prey). A r dandsvik et al. (1999) simulated egg and larval drift of Greenland halibut by way of a numerical model of current fields. They observed considerable interannual variability in the distribution of larvae between the branch south of Bear Island and the one along West Spitsbergen caused by variation in the relative volume transport in the two branches. In all simulations, the Spitsbergen Current was the most important transport route, whereas the branch south of Bear Island was more variable. This corroborates our finding of higher variability of 1-group abundance in the Hopen Deep than along West Spitsbergen. The presence of pelagic 0-group in the international 0-group surveys in autumn was also much more variable in the Barents Sea than along West Spitsbergen (Albert et al., 1997; e.g. ICES, 1996). Along western Spitsbergen, 0-group was distributed close to the coast in some years and extending west of 5E in others (e.g. 1978–1987 and 1993–1994; Albert Distribution and abundance of juvenile Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut et al., 1997). Such westerly distributions may result in part of the 3–8 cm long 0-groups being carried further away from the coast with the Northern Norwegian Sea circulation. The extent of this leakage and the fate of the individuals involved are largely unknown, but should be expected to vary between years. However, A r dlandsvik et al. (1999) observed that only a minor fraction of the larvae has been caught in this westerly current. Haug et al. (1989) found that some recruits would end their drift migration and settle in the slope and on coastal banks along the west coast of Spitsbergen. Others may continue eastwards, north of the archipelago. These may spread out along the deep trenches of the northern Barents Sea and along the slope of the Arctic Ocean. Although these areas have only been sampled sporadically, Bowering and Nedreaas (2000) showed that areas east of Svalbard and around Franz Josefs Land may be important nursery areas for Greenland halibut, at least periodically. Greenland halibut may thus be transported along three main routes corresponding to the three branches of the North Atlantic Current. The relative importance of each route, and the main settlement areas along the routes, may vary between years. Variation in volume transport is just one potential factor. Others include variations in areas where spawning is most intense, and differential survival of young fish between areas. Kovtsova et al. (1987) showed that the latitudinal distribution of spawners varied between years, and A r dlandsvik et al. (1999) showed that such variation would greatly influence the distribution of larvae between southern and northern regions. Godø and Haug (1987) noted the possible impact of predation from cod and of by-catch in the shrimp fishery. Estimated predation on Greenland halibut increased from near zero in 1984–1990 to a few thousand tonnes annually in 1991–1995 (ICES, 1997). Accounting for increased natural mortality would tend to increase VPAbased estimates of total abundance of 1-group for the first part of the 1990s, resulting in an even lower ratio of survey abundance to VPA abundance for those years. However, the data on predation by cod are limited. Among 80 000 cod stomachs examined, 1–3-year-old Greenland halibut were recovered from just 27 stomachs (S. Mehl, pers. comm.). Bowering and Nedreaas (2000) report that Greenland halibut in the Barents Sea and Svalbard area is most abundant at temperatures below 3C. In our surveys, high abundance and a wide southerly distribution were observed at temperatures in the South Cape Transect around 3C, whereas low abundance and a narrow northerly distribution were associated with temperatures above 4.5C. If Greenland halibut exhibit thermotactic migrations after settlement, these would probably be towards colder water. There are areas of cold Arctic Water in the trench between Spitsbergen and Bear 1061 Island (Dragesund and Gjøsæter, 1988). This area was included in the surveys but did not show any concentrations of juveniles. Cold water (down to 1C) is also found along the slope at depths below 600–1000 m. Although several hauls were taken at these depths, no 1-group was recorded (Albert et al., 1997). Thus, any thermotactic migration after settlement would probably go in the same direction as the drift migration, i.e. northwards out of the survey area. Implications A central question of interest for the management of Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut is how to obtain reliable recruitment estimates. Currents, temperature gradients, or other physical factors are apparently important for understanding how survey results relate to recruitment and our analysis suggests that the ‘‘recruitment failure’’ reported in previous assessments (ICES, 1998) is an artefact caused by a decreasing proportion of the year classes at younger ages being present in the survey area. It is obviously essential that surveys used for tuning VPA or otherwise in stock assessment, sample a consistent proportion of the juvenile population. In polar regions, frequently covered by ice for the whole or major parts of the year, this is not always possible. Both northwest Greenland waters and the waters along the slope and deep basins between Svalbard and Franz Josefs Land are frequently ice-covered the whole year. The problem could be partly circumvented if the proportion of the population covered by the survey can be linked to some measurable factor, particularly if the mechanisms are understood. Although this still may not allow reliable predictions of abundance in areas not surveyed, at least an assessment of the level and direction of the bias might be achieved. Acknowledgements Dr Michael Fogarty, Professor Niels Daan, and two anonymous referees are thanked for valuable suggestions for improving the manuscript. References A r dlandsvik, B., and Loeng, H. 1991. A study of the Barents Sea Climate System. Polar Research, 10: 45–49. A r dlandsvik, B., Gundersen, A. C., Nedreaas, K. H., Stene, A., and Albert, O. T. 1999. Modelling the advection and diffusion of eggs and larvae of northeast Arctic Greenland halibut. 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