Friday, 10 March 2017
Regional Overview
Macro, FX & Rates: Czech wages growth remains strong
Forex markets (index)
EURCZK
101.0
EURHUF
(CZ) Czech average wage growth reached 4.2% Y/Y in 2016Q4, the statistical
office said today. / Although the headline figure may look like a disappointment,
the opposite is in fact true. The reason is that median wage growth reached
6% Y/Y which basically means that remuneration of employees with lower wages
grew faster than of those with higher wages.
EURPLN
100.8
100.6
100.4
100.2
100.0
LAST
27.02
311.7
4.325
EURCZK
EURHUF
EURPLN
PREVIOUS
27.02
311.9
4.323
3/11
3/9
3/10
3/8
3/7
3/6
3/5
3/4
3/3
3/2
99.8
CHANGE (%)
We expect wages growth to further accelerate this year as labour market
conditions will continue to tighten. For 2017 we expect wages will grow by 5%
(average) and 6% (median).
0.00
-0.05
0.05
Gov. bonds 10 Y (bps change)
CZ
20.0
HU
Equities: PGE & ENERGA to fill the funding gap
PL
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
LAST
0.666
3.61
3.76
3/11
3/10
3/9
3/8
3/7
3/6
3/5
3/4
3/3
3/2
-5.0
CZGB 10Y
HUGB 10Y
PLGB 10Y
PREVIOUS CHANGE (bps)
0.669
-0.3
3.59
0.6
3.72
1.1
Equity indices (index)
PX
100.5
BUX
WIG
100.0
99.5
99.0
98.5
98.0
LAST
977.2
32917
58582
PREVIOUS
974.0
32987
57987
3/11
3/9
3/10
3/8
3/7
3/6
3/5
3/4
3/3
3/2
97.5
PX
BUX
WIG
CHANGE (%)
0.33
-0.21
1.03
All in all, the figure should not be disappointment for the central bank either and
it should remain on track to exit from the intervention regime (which we expect
during the second quarter of 2017).
(PL) PGE, ENERGA: Companies may need to fill in the PLN 150mn gap in equity
funding for ailing coal miner KHW after Poland's Energy Ministry announced that
coal trader Weglokoks will not invest additional funds in KHW. /NEGATIVE. Poland
plans to merge the country's biggest coal producer PGG with its smaller rival KHW
by the end of March. Otherwise, KHW would collapse, the energy ministry said at
the end of February. The merged entity will need to be capitalised by around 1
billion zlotys and PKN was also asked to inject PLN 400mn.
Friday, 10 March 2017
Interest-rate Swap Curves
CZK *
HUF *
3/10/2017
3/10/2017
1.5
1
0.5
0
3/9/2017
3/10/2017
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
4.0
2.0
PLN *
3/9/2017
0.4
0.0
0.5
1Y
2Y
3Y
1.2
1.0
1.0
1.0
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
2.0
2.0
1.5
8Y
9Y
10Y
0.0
0
1Y
10.0
5.0
0.0
-5.0
3/9/2017
2Y
-0.1
1Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
9Y
5.0
5.3
9Y
10Y
1.3
1.8
3.1
3.5
4.5
3.7
4.7
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
7Y
8Y
10Y
1Y
2Y
5.0
3Y
4Y
5Y
2.0
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
1Y
2Y
3Y
4Y
5Y
6Y
3.9
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.5
7Y
8Y
9Y
10Y
0.0
6Y
* upper plot in each panel shows interest swap curve (%), lower plot shows change in interest rates in basis points
Calendar
Country Tim e
Indicator
CZ
9:00
Real wages
HU
9:00
Trade balance
Period
%
Forecast
m /m
y/y
Actual
m /m
4Q/2016
EUR M 01/2017 *P
y/y
Consensus
m /m
2.8
658
y/y
Previous
m /m
3.2
599
y/y
4
579
Contacts
Brussels Research (KBC)
Piet Lammens
Peter Wuyts
Mathias van der Jeugt
Dublin Research
Austin Hughes
Shawn Britton
Prague Research (CSOB)
Jan Cermak
Petr Baca
Tomas Sykora
Bratislava Research (CSOB)
Marek Gabris
Budapest Research
David Nemeth
+32 2 417 59 41
+32 2 417 32 35
+32 2 417 51 94
+353 1 664 6889
+353 1 664 6892
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Brussels
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+32 2 417 32 65
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+420 2 6135 3570
+420 2 2142 4128
Prague
Prague (Equities)
+420 2 6135 3535
+420 2 2142 4216
+421 2 5966 8809
Bratislava
+421 2 5966 8820
+36 1 328 9989
Budapest
+36 1 328 99 85
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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee
that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its
content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold
investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not
guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the
data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
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