Foresight Services for Tekes Russia
Russia 360° Weak Signals
Table of Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
Freelance jobs & downshifting are becoming popular among Russians
Increasing number of people “living alone”
Neuro-diseases become common
Rise of private healthcare system in Russia
Preventive medicine becomes widespread
Stronger pharmaceutical industry emerges in Russia
Customised primary/secondary education within public schools
Russian higher education system will be challenged by the open/distant education programmes in the world (S)
Emergence of ICT-enabled communities and social groups
Import substitution in Russia
Tax incentives for innovation in Russia
Development of innovative SMEs and emergence of a new middle class
Russian ICT sector becomes globally competitive
Privatization of the space industry
New funds and investment models for infrastructural development in Russia
Re-discovery of the Arctic
Application of “best available technologies” in Russia
The rise of “Green Economy”
Waste recycling and disposal gain momentum in Russia (including Electric and Electronic Waste)
Potential disruption in the nuclear fuel industry with the introduction of the full cycle technology
Possible boom in non-traditional oil and gas extraction due to state tax policy
Rapid advancement of renewable energy technologies and decentralization of power generation
Growing potential for conflict between water consumption and energy generation
1. Freelance jobs & downshifting are becoming popular
among Russians
Socio-economic and technological
transformations have started influencing
peoples’ lifestyles and working practices to a
large extent. Whilst, a number of people
move out of cities by taking the opportunities
of remote working and freelancing, there is
also a greater willingness for “an intentional
downgrade of living standards”, which is
defined as downshifting. Remote working
prevents a squashed, squeezed and stressed
working condition in cities. Meanwhile,
downshifting represents a more fundamental
change of lifestyle. On the one hand wealthy
people leave their businesses at the peak of
their careers for a simpler and stress-free life;
on the other hand poor people in cities face
the difficulty of maintaining their lives due to
increasing costs and difficulty to access goods
and services, thus prefer moving to smaller
towns and villages. Russia has a large number
of underpopulated ecologically clean
territories, like Karelia, Altai, Kamchatka or
small villages in central Russia.
Evidence for occurrence
•
The Russian President has April 8, 2013 signed
into law amendments to the Labour Code
•
introducing a new chapter On Remote Work.
•
Government programmes that support farmers,
self-employers and young professionals who
decide to live and work in the country
•
Examples of popular people “downshifting” to a
countryside living
•
Increasing of interest to spiritual sports (yoga),
vegetarian movement, natural products;
reincarnation of “eco-defending” religion and
social groups
Opportunities for Russia
•
Increasing environmental awareness and
greater appreciation of nature and clean
environment
•
Establishment of higher number of eco-villages
•
More balanced development across the country
and smaller difference in the distribution of
wealth between cities and rural areas
Threats for Russia
•
Decline of cities
•
Damage for businesses and business community
•
Lack of legislative support for remote working
Further indicators
References
Russia has 9% of all croplands in the world, 20% of drinking water and 52% of black soil.
Eco-oriented youth may bring Russian countryside with new technologies and vision.
More than 200 eco-villages have already been founded in Russia since the beginning of
the downshifting movement.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
According to Public Opinion Fund
(2012), almost one fifth of all Russian
citizens are ready to move to the
countryside for remote working or
simpler and organic living.
Related Technologies
• Sports and leisure equipment
• Environnmentally friendly
construction materials for countryside construction
• All terrain vehicles, bikes, motorbikes
• Agricultural and farming equipment
http://voiceofrussia.com/2012_07_03/80134831/
http://runet.fom.ru/
http://www.down-shifters.ru/
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business_for_business/article/national-features-of-remote-workregulations/470325.html
2. Increasing number of people “living alone”
The traditional family structure has
deteriorated dramatically in recent years due
to social, technological, economic and
political changes. Self-development, career
goals, other egocentric values are becoming
the first priorities nowadays, mostly in big
cities like Moscow. Despite of an active use of
social networks, it seems that digital era is
more likely to distant people from each other.
People feel more comfortable living an
independent life. Recent tendencies towards
the decreasing number of marriages, and
lower birth rates, coupled with increasing
divorce rates indicate that there will be a
higher number of people living alone in the
near future. Especially considering the elderly
people, there will be less and less care
available from their families. This will
eventually bring increasing load on the health
and social security system. There will also be
an increasing need for assistive health and
care technologies and Personal Health
Systems [1]
Evidence for occurrence
•
A sharp rise in percentage of divorces per 1000
since 1990. More people want to achieve
personal goals before having children, so they
get married only in their 30s and 40s. Many
women, able to have children, do not want to
have them
•
Official statistics and population census display
the rise of people living alone
•
Increasing number of pet ownership for elderly
people [2]
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
Opportunities for Russia
•
It is good for employment as people without
family are ready to devote their time and energy
for work
•
Advantage for social networks, as people get
used to surfing the Internet communities when
they feel lonely
•
Emergence and development of a new market
for assistive health and care technologies
Upon to the statistics every second couple
get divorced, among 1000 marriages 700
do not live a long time.
Related Technologies
•
Threats for Russia
•
Drop of the birth-rate and population
•
Dissatisfaction in life, increased level of
aggression
•
Stratification of society
Further indicators
•
Even if number of divorces seems to decline, the number of marriages do
not go up either.
•
•
Social networking technologies
supplemented with joint real-life
activities for people living alone
Robotics for supporting elderly
Life assessment and advice
technologies, wearable devices
References
1. http://www.phsforesight.eu/
2.https://www.google.ru/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CD0QFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.springer.com%
2Fcda%2Fcontent%2Fdocument%2Fcda_downloaddocument%2F9781461444381-c1.pdf%3FSGWID%3D0-0-45-1351111p174512857&ei=KOpRVO7AFePhywO2_ILIDg&usg=AFQjCNFhQzm9s3lIMJUKpclCyLzeBoPP5g&sig2=E85992s8ZeseAdPnzgKQA&bvm=bv.78597519,d.bGQ&cad=rjt
3. http://www.gks.ru/bgd/regl/b14_12/IssWWW.exe/stg/d01/05-07.htm
3. Neuro-diseases become common
Neurological disorders are currently
estimated to affect as many as a billion
people worldwide, and Russia is not an
exception. Along with the increasing pace of
digital era and technology products,
informatization of society humans must
overcome much more stressful circumstances
than ever before. More and more people
become physically inactive because of
modern gadgets and new working conditions.
People suffer from informational overloads,
number of neuro-disease complaints is
increasing. People of young age (13-20) have
become more vulnerable and more exposed
to these health issues. The most typical
sicknesses are headaches, weakness,
problems with spine among the others. There
are also more and more advertisements
about stress reducing drugs now. While
transforming lifestyles and working
conditions, technologies appear to have
negative influences on humans, who are not
prepared for such challenges.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Informatization, “computerization”of society,
new working and studying conditions in stressful
world everyday brings new problems to the
nervous system
•
Hospital visitors with first-time detected neurodiseases increased from 7% to 10% since 2002
by 2012
Opportunities for Russia
•
Inexpensive but effective interventions for
neurological disorders that could be applied on
a large scale through primary care are becoming
available
•
Increasing awareness of health problems related
to changing lifestyles and technologies
•
Rehabilitation programmes for people in all ages
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
Policy
Market size
Children (<15)
Threats for Russia
•
Increasing dependency on anti-depressants
•
Declining personal and social state-of-mind,
mood and well-being
•
Social and economic costs due to higher number
of people become unhealthy and ineffective
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
3.
Computer adherence alone inevitably causes several problems with health.
Considering the fact that there will be more applications of Internet resources and
computer technologies, new challenges are likely to cause more stress and
consequently more diseases.
5
4
3
2
1
0
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Teenagers (15-17)
Adults (>17)
Neuro-diseases by age groups (per 100K people) [1]
Related Technologies
Neuro-imaging; Neuro-recovery; Gene
therapy; Stem cell technology; Central
nervous system technologies; Laser; and
Virtual Reality technologies
http://vestnik.mednet.ru/content/view/383/30/lang,ru
http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2014/0593/barom01.php
http://www.gazeta.ru/science/2012/09/26_a_4788801.shtml
4. Rise of private healthcare system in Russia
Currently, public healthcare services in Russia
are not so strong and effective as they were
during the Soviet Union times. Even in the
years of crisis (2008-2009) people in Russia
preferred to visit private health practitioners
and clinics, whose prices are far from cheap.
Recently, governmental programs have been
enacted to contribute to the development of
a private medicine sector in order to enhance
the healthcare services delivered by the state.
Complexities and under-budgeting of the
national healthcare industry forces people to
find the alternative sources for help. In
society, the commercial medical centers are
considered to be a high-quality, personoriented and reliable institutions. In parallel
to increasing wealth in society, people
demand more and easy access to high quality
healthcare services. Insufficiency of public
medical care, low standards of management
and increasing dissatisfaction with the public
services create opportunities for the private
market to grow.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Private medical and educational institutions
have been exempted from income tax
•
Government has adopted several programmes
in order to develop a private medicine market,
for example, the Moscow State Programme
“Doctor is near” allows to establish a medicine
room in a simple living house
•
Increasing attendance to private hospitals and
clinics and in parallel increasing investments in
the sector
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Opportunities for Russia
•
Rising of effectiveness of the national medical
aid in Russia
•
Opportunities for creating new private-publicpartnerships in healthcare
•
More possibilities for R&D in medicine through
private laboratories
Growth of the private healthcare market [2]
Threats for Russia
•
Appearance of the “black market” in private
medicine sphere
•
Free health services might disappear affecting
poor negatively
•
If not inspected properly, health risks may arise
due to irresponsible players in the sector
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
The Doctor is Near programme is implemented in to provide residents with
affordable medical care at health centres conveniently located near their place
of residence, work or study. The programme is gaining momentum, and more
investors are willing to participate [1]
Related Technologies
Electronic patient records; Managerial
decision support systems; Neural networks
and pattern recognition; Smart cards;
Telehealth and telemedicine
http://www.mos.ru/en/authority/activity/healthcare/index.php?id_14=28315
http://marketing.rbc.ru/reviews/medicine2013/chapter_1_1.shtml
http://www.techart.ru/files/publications/publication-588.pdf
http://usib.ru/text/chto_zhdet_medicinskij_biznes_v_2013_god
5. Preventive medicine becomes widespread
Preventive medicine is widely accepted as a
way to create healthier societies with
minimum health expenditures and higher
quality of life of people as socially and
economically active citizens. Preventive
medicine is becoming to be recognised in
Russia too. The state policy of the Russian
Federation relating to healthcare and the
health of the nation is geared at preventive
medicine and also at preventing the spread of
socially dangerous illnesses [1]. Besides the
state, the other leg of the preventive
medicine is the society itself. It is important
to increase the awareness of society so that
the individuals take better care of for their
health, diet and physical and psychological
activities. There are greater opportunities for
the use of Personal Health Systems and
making them more accessible for citizens.
Among the policy measures, tax incentives
and insurance premium reductions can be
applied for citizens who keep their health at a
good level.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Increasing R&D work dedicated to the early
detection of diseases
•
Rising awareness of people regarding health,
lifestyles, physical exercise and nutrition
•
Social advertising about preventive health
measures are becoming more and more popular
•
Emergence of many innovative health care
communities where preventive medicine is the
core approach
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Mobile-health
projects by
categories,
2013 [2]
Opportunities for Russia
•
Development of new competitive medicine
technologies for preventive medicine
•
Citizens build healthy habits
•
Less costly treatment for society and the state
•
Declining levels of incidence in Russia
Related Technologies
Threats for Russia
•
Preventive medicine programmes may be costly
especially at the early stages of development
•
Insufficiency of preventive medicine could cause
high level of false predictions
•
People, who are aware that they are exposed to
a risk of some illness may intentionally or
unintentionally harm themselves
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
Agashin simulator is a medicine-free cure aid. It is based on a rhythmic wave
motion of the body (e.g., jumping, hitting or shaking on object). During jumping
muscles are contracted, causing the blood rushes to all of their groups. It can cure
or prevent heart and vascular disease [3]
3.
Devices, to improve diagnosis and
treatment; some are drugs and other
pharmacological agents, for prevention
and treatment; and some are information
science tools, to improve the
coordination, analysis and dissemination
of preventive health information
http://rustrans.wikidot.com/russia-s-national-security-strategy-to-2020
http://www.json.ru/en/poleznye_materialy/free_market_watches/analytics/rynok_mobilnoj_mediciny_v_ro
ssii_i_v_mire_osnovnye_tendencii_i_prognozy/
http://agashin.ru/
6. Stronger pharmaceutical industry emerges in Russia
Amid ongoing political and economic crisis,
supplies of some drugs to Russia have been
interrupted. This brought the urgency for
action to upgrade the national pharma
industry more than ever. Actually, the former
President in 2009 defined the pharmaceutical
and medical spheres as the main priorities
for development of the Russian economy.
Furthermore, the recent Foresight study
organised by the Higher School of Economics
[1] for the Russian Federation towards 2030
identified medicine as one of the seven
priority areas for Russia. Since then many
state programs have been established to
hasten this process, and a lot of shortcomings
of legislation have been overcome. The
pharma industry gives signals of recovery.
However, this appears to be due to Foreign
Direct Investments. The Government strives
to support the Russian manufacturers .
Among top 10 manufacturers, Pharmstandard
continued to be the only Russian company
with a market share of 4% [2].
Evidence for occurrence
•
Pharma and medical industries were given
priority in the "Development of pharmaceutical
and medical industry of the Russian Federation
until 2020“ programme, which was approved by
the Government Decree on 17 February 2011.
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Opportunities for Russia
•
Emergence of the strong national pharma
market, reducing of the potentional risk of
consuming “generics”. The process of launching
drugs will be quicker
•
Independence from the international suppliers
•
Growth of national health and wellbeing,
opportunities for accessible prices for all
•
Growth of the competitiveness on global market
with new drugs and medical products
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
According to Pharma 2020, the Russian
Federation aims at producing at least 50%
of drugs in Russia and 25% made by
Russian companies [2].
Related Technologies
Threats for Russia
•
Possibility of stagnation on the pharma market
without international competition
•
Lack of time to elaborate the proper national
pharma industry
•
Lack of particular medical drugs on the Russian
retail market in the first years. Consumers may
suffer from the absence of cancer drugs, drugs
for transplantation, the insulin preparations and
cardiotropic treatments
Further indicators
•
Russian Government aims to increase the volume of domestic critical drug
production to 90% by 2018 and the total share of domestically-produced
drugs and medical products consumed in the country to 48% by 2020 [3]
1.The company NPO "Microgen"
presented the most recent and already
proven market bacteriophage
preparations
2.Portfolio company of Maxwell Biotech
"OncoMax" fund is preparing for clinical
trials of its drug, which is capable killing
cancer cells while minimizing adverse
effects on the patient
References
1.
2.
3.
http://www.hse.ru/data/2014/08/13/1313910581/%D0%9F%D0%9D%D0%A2%D0%A0%20203
0.pdf
http://crm.cegedim.com/Docs_Whitepaper/Industry/Emerging-Markets-Whitepaper-2012.pdf
http://www.ihs.com/products/global-insight/industry-economic-report.aspx?id=1065985325
7. Customised primary/secondary education within public
schools
Russia traditionally inherited an individualised
education system from the Soviet times for
pupils in need of pedagogical and therapy
support. however, this practice seems to
have ended and created some negative
consequences. The decentralization and
under-funding of the Russian education
system in the 90s resulted in a growing
inequity of ICT availability across the
education system. However, demand for
customised education is growing again. This
time the expectations go beyond the special
physical and psychological assistance, but
towards an ICT-enabled more individualised
curriculum. Increasing number of state
schools have started upgrading the standard
curriculum and provide additional and more
up-to-date content in their programmes.
Further advancements are expected in the
development of learner profiles, flexible
program delivery methods, technology
infusion, social construction, and
individualised student learning plans [1].
Evidence for occurrence
•
The Federal Target Program for the
Development of Education in 2011-2015 was
developed to ensure access to quality education
that meets the requirements of innovative
socially-oriented development of Russia.
•
In addition to government programmes, there
are several community initiatives, including “the
school of the digital age,” which aims at
providing educational institutions subjectteaching materials for all academic disciplines
and areas of school life with an address
delivered on modern media [2]
Opportunities for Russia
•
Fostering of a collaborative partnership
between the teacher, parent, student and
school to designs tailored learning programs
•
Students are taught according to their individual
curriculum and a specially designed learning
path that better suits their needs and abilities
Threats for Russia
•
Implementation of ICT methods requires some
time and skills to adopt
•
Personalized learning could diminish the
relational and ethical dimensions of education.
It should not be taken to the extremes to
become self-learning
Further indicators
•
Through the new personalized education approach, the average test pass
rate is almost 10% higher and positive evaluation of the education
program is around 84% higher
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
In 2012-13 alone, more than $10m
(£6.3m) was invested in education
technology companies in Russia [3]
Related Technologies
• E-books, tablets and laptops
• Online lectures and Internet-based
tests and supporting cloud
technologies
• Gamification technologies for
education
• Electronic records of perfomance
References
1.
2.
3.
http://iite.unesco.org/pics/publications/en/files/3214716.pdf
http://www.media-etc.fr/economie/the-marketing-strategy-of-russian-education.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/society/10340850/education-online-russia.html
8. Russian higher education system will be challenged by
the open/distant education programmes in the world
Development of ICT and growing Internet
coverage of various regions in Russia creates
an opportunity for students all over the
country to use distance learning solutions. It
has a potential for a huge market for many
people that live far from huge cities in Russia
and would like to get specific education in the
field they prefer. A number of distant
education programmes are delivered across
the world. Particularly, the ones delivered by
Harvard, MIT and other leading universities in
the US and in Europe are becoming popular
across the world. Among the popular subjects
for study are law and business, with growing
interest for online MBA programmes by
particularly early and mid-career business
professionals, who looking for further
qualifications for progressing in their
career. While giving people opportunities to
access high quality content and degree
delivered by those leading institutions, the
distant programmes challenge for universities
in the rest of the world including in Russia.
Evidence for occurrence
•
•
•
The top university searches worldwide are for
are for universities which offer online courses,
University of Phoneix as a US for-profit
institution being number 1 [1]
Popularization of distance learning programs in
Russia (such as Coursera)
Order of Ministry of Education and Science of
Russia about specialties that are banned from
distant learning including most areas of
engineering, medicine and vocational education
such as health and other public services
Opportunities for Russia
•
It will lead to the spread of educated people
around the country as there will be no need to
travel to big cities only to study the majority of
professions
•
Improvement of Russian higher education
system to include distance learning and to
compete globally by following international
standards
•
Higher level of migration to other countries for
job opportunities
Threats for Russia
•
Choice of international distance learning
programs instead of Russian education
•
The majority of international educational
programs will not take into the account Russian
demand for specialists in specific areas
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
3.
If Russian education system ensures “educational sovereignty” and enables local
content providers to develop customised programmes, particularly for the distant
regions of the country, then greater opportunities can be generated for the
exploitation of this Weak Signal.
Anticipated impacts
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Value
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
The number of distance learning
students in Russian higher education
programmes increased by more than
50% from 2000 to 2010.
Related Technologies
• Distant learning information
technologies
• Learning management systems
• Communication technologies
• High speed Internet
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29240959
http://www.science-education.ru/25-996
http://vfmgiu.ru/sovremennie_tendencii_v_visshem_obrazovanii_506/sayti_distancionnogo_o
brazovania_551/vliyanie_interneta_na_obrazovanie_632/index.html
9. Emergence of ICT-enabled communities and social
groups
ICTs technologies make considerable impacts
for transformations in the Russian society. An
increasing number of social networks provide
platforms for online discussions and exchange
of ideas and content, and eventually create
opportunities for the generation of
communities and organisation of events.
This communities not only involve people
from inside the country, but also attract
attention from all over the world and create
possibilities for the diffusion of ideas,
ideologies and culture with eventual positive
and negative impacts. Besides its benefits for
a creative exchange, a number of illegal
communities have emerged. There is a
growing need for more effective monitoring
systems and anticipatory analytics to
understand the dynamics of online exchange
and what positive as well as negative
consequences it may create. Whilst doing
that it is also becoming increasingly important
to protect basic human rights such as privacy
and freedom of speech.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Live events and meetings of groups created in
the Internet
•
Online and offline master-classes and lectures
•
Anti-social movements and charity activities
•
“Movement of Russian car-owners” occurred in
the Internet. The group dealt successfully with
increasing of taxes, car accidents and some
general car etiquette policies
Opportunities for Russia
•
Community purposes are achieved faster
because of online collaboration, and open
information sharing
•
Increasing national and multinational
interactions, sharing of new ideas, trends,
events for enhancing of different social, cultural,
and science communities
Threats for Russia
•
Emergence of illegal communities, social
protests, revolution
•
Increasing aggression and miscommunication
within different levels of social groups
•
Decline of importance of the real
communication, living illusive life
Further indicators
•
A wide variety of communities have been established including thematic,
geographic, consumer, professional, gender, protest and marginalised as
well as communities of direct communication [1]
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Top 5 Social Networks in Russia [2]
Related Technologies
Intelligent social networking; big data
analysis; web-mining; semantic web; fuzzy
networks; security & privacy applications
References
1.
2.
3.
http://www.moluch.ru/archive/28/3133/
http://etc-digital.org/digital-trends/social-networking-and-ugc/social-networking/regionaloverview/europe/
http://infoculture.rsl.ru/donArch/home/news/dek/2005/12/2005-12_r_dek-s3.htm
10. Import substitution in Russia
Being a natural resources exporter and
importer of the majority of consumer
products and technologies from partner
countries, Russia is the country that is overly
dependent on international trade, which
made it difficult for national enterprises to
compete with international ones on the
national markets and led to obsolescence of
Russian technological base and infrastructure
particularly in manufacturing sectors. The
most import dependent sectors are machine
tools (>90%); heavy machinery (60-80%); light
industry (70-90%); electronics (80-90%);
pharmaceutical and medical industry (7080%); machinery for the food industry (6080%). While governmental programs are
being developed to restore and upgrade the
manufacturing base, the latest political
tensions increased the urgency of actions.
Particular priority is given to the import
substitution in military-industrial sectors as
part of national security.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Embargo on food imports
•
Official news and interviews of Russian
industrialists and entrepreneurs
•
Messages and orders from President and
Government of Russian Federation to encourage
import substitution
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Anticipated impacts
Value
Policy
Opportunities for Russia
•
Employment growth, improvement of living
standards
•
Increase of the level of scientific and
technological progress and the level of
education
•
Decrease of cost and availability of products and
technologies
•
Attraction of foreign companies for operation
within Russia and with national industries
Threats for Russia
•
Lack of financial resources for total import
substitution
•
Old industrial infrastructure for implementation
of new technologies
•
Increasing of political tensions and sanctions in
all spheres of live
Further indicators
•
In order to substitute military import materials Russia will have to spend
50 billion rubles initially [1]
Market size
Technologica
Economic
Environmental
Specialisation of technoparks in Russia [2]
Related Technologies
Machine tools; Heavy machinery; Light
industry; Electronics; Pharmaceutical;
Medical industry; Machinery for the
food industry and agriculture
References:
1.
2.
3.
http://newsruss.ru/doc/index.php/%D0%98%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B7%D
0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%B2_%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1
%81%D0%B8%D0%B8
http://www.pravda.ru/news/economics/11-08-2014/1220770-opk-0/
http://www.rg.ru/2014/08/05/zameshenie.html
11. Tax incentives for innovation in Russia
The changing business environment in Russia
is bringing new opportunities for investors.
Tax incentives help to increase business
profitability and thus maximise investment
potentials. Recently the Government adopted
several federal programs aiming at
restructuring of the Russian economy.
Nowadays federal policy and legislation
hamper the development of the
comprehensive and effective economy
environment to boost innovation processes.
The recent “Strategy for innovative
development of the Russian Federation by
2020” raises the importance of SME
empowerment along with effective labour
policy, and implementation of new
technologies in public domains. Tax incentives
are considered to be crucial instruments for
stimulating innovation. Recently there have
been steps towards reductions of taxes for
companies which use eco technology and
produce lower emissions than the standards
defined by the authorities.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Tax policy in the Russian Federation for 2011
and the planning period of 2012 and 2013
promote innovation and support innovative
activities
•
Tax exemption for inventions and industrial
designs and support for the registration of
patents and utility models
•
Considerable tax incentives have been offered
for the Skolkovo innovation center
Opportunities for Russia
•
Greater opportunities for national and foreign
investments
•
Increasing amount and pace of business and
innovation processes within companies with
increased R&D
•
Increasing of development of important aspects
of life such as energy efficiency, IT, medicine, life
sciences, etc.
Threats for Russia
•
Complicated processes for tax incentives and
returns may hamper innovation
•
Indirect tax revenue losses may occur, if
investment crowds out other more highly
taxable investment
•
Cost-benefit studies of tax incentives are
difficult to make and may be misleading if they
systematically exclude general equilibrium
effects
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
3.
There is an import VAT exemption for technological equipment that has no
equivalent produced in Russia (normally 18% VAT applies). Exemptions also apply
for import customs duties in respect of goods imported by a foreign investor as a
capital contribution to its Russian subsidiary [3]
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
Tax benefits available in the special
economic zones. There are 16 special
economic zones (SEZs) in Russia. They
are split into industrial production SEZs,
tourism and recreation SEZs, technology
development SEZs and port SEZs. There
is also a SEZ with separate tax treatment
Kaliningrad SEZ.
Related Technologies
Tax incentives for application of
energy-efficiency technologies within
enterprises, for sales of nationalproduced EE instruments.
http://elibrary.unecon.ru/materials_files/412438469.pdf
http://opec.ru/1333025.html
https://www.deloitte.com/assets/DcomRussia/Local%20Assets/Documents/Tax%20&%20Legal%20services/Tax_incentives_in_Russia.pdf
12. Development of innovative SMEs and
emergence of a new middle class
The SME sector in Russia has steadily grown
since 2005, both in terms of SME number and
turnover. New governmental programs
support innovative startups that have
potentials to turn into perspective businesses.
Some of these micro businesses merge into
SMEs or are bought by bigger companies.
Innovation institutions and clusters are slowly
starting to develop in Russia to attract more
innovation in SMEs. The rise of
entrepreneurship and innovative SMEs will
speed the emergence of the middle class in
Russia. Eventually, these changes will attract
more foreign capital into the country;
however at the same time the growth of
middle class will also bring a lot of
international products and services to provide
for the new demand and opportunities of the
society which may create a big competition
with local suppliers.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Since 2010 support of innovative SMEs has been
one of the most priorities of the State Program
for Finance Support of SMEs in Russia
•
Establishment of a network of development
institutions for innovations (the Technology
Fund, the Russian Venture Company, the
Development Bank and others)
•
Tax incentives for R&D and innovation
Social
Anticipated impacts 5
Value
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market volume
Opportunities for Russia
•
Increase of the amount of R&D and innovations
in the country
•
Decreasing rate of unemployment
•
Attraction of Foresight Direct Investment into
the country
Threats for Russia
•
Russian higher education may not meet the
requirements of innovative business
•
Attraction of big amount of foreign suppliers to
compete with local businesses
•
Innovative SMEs will primarily be concentrated
in the wealthier regions of the country, which
may cause further income disparities
Further indicators
•
Rise of GDP per capita, spending on luxury goods, tourists travelling
abroad, private housing, internet users and other economic metrics show
the growth of the middle class [2]
SME Production Volume for Different Branches of
Russian Economy [1]
Related Technologies
High technology equipment; industrial
design and prototyping; manufacturing
systems; marketing; training; and
capacity building
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
http://www.fp6-creation.ru/win/smeinrussia.html
http://www.isras.ru/analytical_report_sredny_klass_10_let_spustya.htm
http://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/econ_stat/en/economics/gii/pdf/chapter6.pdf
http://www.apecscmc.org/files/11.1.6%20Support%20of%20Innovative%20SMEs.pdfl
13. Russian ICT sector becomes globally competitive
Russia has always been a very advanced
country in terms of inventions. However, the
disability to protect the ideas and
commercialize them resulting in some
innovations has always been a weakness for
the country. On the governmental level, the
ICT sector is one of the priority areas of
development of Science and Technology for
long run perspectives. At the same time it is
one of the main drivers of the economy after
natural resources. The volume of the sector
grows annually. Having adopted clientoriented approach of developing and
implementing new ideas, technologies and
solutions in ICT sphere and a huge support on
governmental level, Russia now has a high
potential to catch up with the rest of the
countries and even become a leader in some
spheres of information technologies. The
government forecast predicts growth of the
ICT sector 5% in 2014, before climbing slightly
from there to 5.3% in 2015 and 5.5 percent in
2016 [1]
Evidence for occurrence
•
Annual rise of ICT sector’s volume
•
ICT – is one of the Russia priority areas for
development of Science and Technology
•
Rising number of IT-related faculties in Russian
education system and the amount of employees and
freelancers in the sphere software engineering
•
ICT startup initiatives and financial support by the
government
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Governance of various spheres with the help of ICT
solutions
Capitalization on ICT software solutions, gathered
knowledge and services
Huge market for ICT goods and services, especially
electronic-business
Transformation to knowledge economy
Appearance of knowledge intensive business services
Better ways to monitor social activities by collecting
personal data
Huge territory to spread a lot of data processing
centers
Threats for Russia
•
Value
Market size
Opportunities for Russia
•
Anticipated impacts
Pollution caused by the increased demand for
computing power
Lack of a sufficient number of professionals in ICT
Openness of all information
Increasing dependency to imported hardware
Further indicators
•
According to the Strategy for the Development of Russia’s Information
Society, approved in 2007, ICT is a second driver of economic growth after
natural resources.
Ranking of ICT areas by importance for Russia[2]
Related Technologies
“Big data” technologies; Wireless sensor
networks; Smart grid; Ubiquitous
computing and Advanced manufacturing
among the others
References
1.
2.
3.
http://www.software-russia.com/why_russia/industry_overview
http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/fta_2011/documents/download/PAPERS/THEME%201/1b%20
Innovation%20and%20Sustainability/Shashnov.doc
http://www.crn.ru/news/detail.php?ID=68520
14. Privatization of the space industry
Moving out into space appears to be an
inevitable future for human. Besides wellknown Moon and Mars missions, recently
non-traditional space initiatives have been
emerging. These mainly stem from the private
sector such as space tourism and asteroid
mining. Recent political and economic context
between Russia and the West suggest that
the privatisation process in the space might
be accelerated. NASA has granted Boeing and
SpaceX contracts for manned space flights to
become independent from Russia, where
travels to the international space station are
undertaken. Whether the space endeavors
should be funded privately or publicly is
debated. Privatising space may cause science
to follow profit. However, there is a fact that
industry has been responsible for a number of
scientific advancements. While entrepreneurs
may be concerned with financial, operational
and market viability, governments must be
ready to deal with legal and regulatory issues
[1].
Evidence for occurrence
•
First manned commercial flights planned for
2017
•
Cygnus and Dragon private cargo spacecrafts by
Orbital Sciences corp. and Space X accordingly
are already being utilized by NASA
•
Arianspace SA, a French commercial launch
service provider, reconsiders its pricing policy
due to Space X market pressure
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Political
Opportunities for Russia
•
A new and prospective market emerges for
Russian high-tech companies
•
Russia could concentrate its efforts on noncommercial activities such as deep space
exploration
•
Increased competition if properly addressed
could foster technological development not only
in Russian space industry but also in the
supporting ones
Threats for Russia
•
Russia holds a significant market share only
within a small niche of the global space services
market, which it may lose
•
Lack of nation-wide experience in organizing a
successful private high-tech companies prevents
smooth substitution of government-related
entities in space industry
Further indicators
Boeing has already received more than $570m to develop CST-100 in the three
phases of the programme before today, while SpaceX has received $515m for
Dragon.
Market size
Technologi
cal
Economic
Environme
ntal
The global space economy
amounted to over $314 billion in
2013, including $240 billion on
commercial space products,
services, infrastructure and
support industries
Related technologies
•
•
•
•
Rocket engines
New materials
ICT
New launch technologies
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
http://www.rast.org.tr/docs/RAST2015_CFP.pdf
http://www.space.com/22989-private-cygnus-spacecraft-space-station-arrival.html
http://www.space.com/27543-spacex-dragon-cargo-spaceship-splashdown.html
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/2628/1
15. New funds and investment models for infrastructural
development in Russia
In Russia water, energy and transport
networks are getting older and will need a
major overhaul and modernization in the
near future. New funding schemes are being
considered for infrastructural upgrading
through state programmes and regional
funding schemes along with various types of
public-private-partnerships. Built-OperateTransfer contacts also are promising and
would encourage the attraction of Foreign
Direct Investments in the future.
Consequently, the modernization process is
expected to take place at the national and
regional levels and with the involvement of
domestic and international private
companies, including venture capitalists and
wide variety of foreign investors. The
infrastructural upgrading and investment on
new projects, such as the new high speed
railway line planned to connect China to
Europe will require the latest technologies
with minimum environmental impact while
complying with the highest safety standards.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Federal programs for transport, energy and
water infrastructures development
•
Programs to encourage public-private
partnership models, which have been applied
successfully in 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi
and 2014 Formula 1 Grand Prix in Sochi; and are
expected to be used in 2016 Ice Hockey World
Cup; and 2018 FIFA World Cup, which are large
developments requiring both capital and
technological investments
Opportunities for Russia
•
Quality improvements of Russian roads, water
and energy
•
Improvement of road capacity to solve traffic
jams problems
•
Implementation of latest “green” technologies
to decrease environmental pollution, increase
safety and efficiency of energy and water
systems (e.g. “smart grid”)
Threats for Russia
•
Total costs for infrastructural development
•
Prolonged disruptions in the work of the
essential elements of transport, water and
energy systems during upgrade process
•
Possible money flow leaks because of the large
scale of the modernization projects
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
Priority areas of PPP investments in Russia: Transport (airports, highways, bridges),
Environment (water and waste management), Social infrastructure (sports, education
and healthcare), Territorial development (e.g. industrial parks, Energy efficiency (e.g.
district heating), IT&Government (e-government, broadband) [2]
3.
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
No. of infrastuctural projects with
estimated completion times [1]
Related Technologies
Material technologies
Energy generation, transfer and storage
technologies
Smart grid; Smart transport
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY
http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ceci/documents/2013/PPP/Highlevel_Consultations/11_Russia.pdf
http://www.eriras.ru/files/manjevich-programma_modjernizacii.pdf
16. Re-discovery of the Arctic
Arctic is strategically important region of
Russia. It is proved to have traditional largescale oil and gas fields that can be exploited
in a short term. It is also a non-conventional
source of hydrocarbons – gas hydrates which
can be used in a long run. Furthermore Arctic
is the shortest waterway transport corridor
from Europe to Asia making it attractive for
international trade in oil, liquefied natural gas
and iron ore. Finally Arctic region is planed to
be used for the deployment of new satellite
geo-positioning systems and communication.
Russian companies and foreign partners have
already started the exploration and deepwater drilling in Arctic shells. Due to political
tensions and desire of European countries to
become independent from Russian gas
resources, foreign countries actively try to
claim for Arctic areas [1]. Preserving and
exploiting Russian territory of Arctic will boost
Russian economy and strengthen its position
in the global market.
Evidence for occurrence
•
A growing number of missions to explore Arctic
potentials in relation to natural resources
•
Russian oil platforms in the Murmansk region
•
Official news and statements by Russian
industrialists, entrepreneurs and governmental
bodies about the importance of Arctic
exploitation
Opportunities for Russia
•
New sources of oil and gas
•
Sources of gas hydrates that can be used for
methane extraction in long term and
desalination
•
The shortest transport corridor for international
trade between Europe and Asia
•
Platform for new satellite geo-positioning
systems and communication
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
The Arctic could hold about 13% of the
world’s undiscovered oil reserves and
approximately 30% of natural gas
reserves. Russia controls the biggest part
of the Arctic [2]
Related Technologies
Threats for Russia
•
Claims for the neutral Arctic water territory by
U.S.A., Norway, U.K., Canada and Denmark
•
Ecology preservation campaigns (such as “Save
the Arctic” and “Green Peace” supported by 2
million people and Finland government)
infiltrating Russian oil platforms and ships
•
Potential environmental disasters because of
deep-water drilling in Arctic waters
Further indicators
•
In 2015 Russian defense ministry is beginning the reconstruction of the
Arctic Tiksi aerodrome, which will host the permanent basing of frontline
aircraft and interceptors
Offshore ice-resistant platforms for oil
and gas extraction in the Arctic shelf;
new types icebreakers for the
development of commercial navigation
in the Arctic ocean; technology of
methane recovery from gas hydrates [3]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
http://expert.ru/dossier/story/arktika/
http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Arctic_oil_and_gas/$FILE/Arctic_oil_and_gas.pdf
http://issek.hse.ru/trendletter/news/133987697.html
http://expert.ru/russian_reporter/2013/39/v-chuzhuyu-arktiku-so-svoim-ustavom/
17. Application of “best available technologies” in Russia
Concerns about ecology and environmental
pollution caused by huge corporations has
been a hot topic in Russia for more than a
decade. Best available technology (BAT) in
Russia is a term that is used to express
technologies that are economically efficient
and are designed both to increase energy
efficiency and reduce environmental pollution
from waste disposal and other dangerous
processes. In 2012, Prime Minister of the
time, Vladimir Putin, ordered companies to
start forming “environmental programs”.
Currently standards, norms and regulations
are being developed along with instruments
to stimulate the technological transformation
of enterprises during 2015-2022. In order to
monitor and control the amount of produced
waste, smart meters and sensor devices are
being developed and implemented in large
industrial enterprises. Eventually such devices
will cover most of the environmentally
harmful waste in large Russian cities.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Federal laws and corrections to them have been
introduced
•
Russian BAT book for waste management is
published
•
Environmental programmes in enterprises begin
•
Stimulation programmes for BAT
implementation are planned
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Opportunities for Russia
•
Minimisation of environmental pollution due to
industries and better quality of environment
•
Reduction of resource use with opportunities
for cost saving
•
Improved recycling and reuse of waste
Threats for Russia
•
•
•
Lack of incentives for Russian enterprises to
implement BAT
Regulations might be in place earlier than the
standards for firms to meet the regulations are
available
Costly requirements may cause companies to
bankrupt
Further indicators
•
Wastewater discharge regulations will start working from January, 2015
forcing all related companies to use BAT in order to avoid sanctions
Shares of polluting industries in Russia[1]
Related technologies
Waste management; ferrous metals
processing industry; energy efficiency;
manufacture of ceramic products [2]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
http://www.dishisvobodno.ru/promishlennoe_zagryaznenie.html
http://www.mnr.gov.ru/activities/list.php?part=1551
http://www.rg.ru/2014/07/25/eco-dok.html
http://www.kommersant.ru/pda/power.html?id=2184631
18. The rise of “Green Economy”
Although Russian economy is greatly
dependent on conventional resources, there
are signals indicating that the concept of
“green economy” is becoming an emerging
topic. It agglomerates principles of reducing
environmental risks and ecological scarcities
in all spheres of our lives: from “green”
economy, technology and product
development to “green” construction and use
of “best available technologies” (BAT) in
environmentally harmful enterprises to
regulate and control the amount of waste and
pollution produced by them. In Russia this
process started with the development of
Federal Laws, “Green standards” and other
regulatory documents for environmental
preservation and the construction of the
Sochi Olympic infrastructure in 2014 where
the concept of “green technologies” was first
implemented.
Evidence for occurrence
•
“Green standards” for ecological certification of
enterprises
•
Grants and awards for implementation of
“green” technologies and solutions
•
Development of Moscow Ecology strategy for
2030
•
Temporary elimination of customs duties for
import of electronic cars within Eurasian
Customs Union
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Opportunities for Russia
•
Long run cost saving for manufacturing, energy
production, waste management and other
spheres
•
Reduction of resource use with opportunities
for cost saving with increased quality of
environment
•
Environmental monitoring of natural resources
across the country
Threats for Russia
•
•
•
Increasing total costs for “green development”
in companies and governmental bodies may
create obstacles
Emergence of “green barriers” for newly
entering companies
Necessary green technology support might not
be available to implement the green economy
Further indicators
•
Implementation of “green technologies” for the Sochi Olympic
infrastructure in 2014 [1}
Market size
It is predicted that the full
transformation to “green technologies”
will take place in Russia in 2050. 50% of
energy will be renewable, 30% from
natural resources, 20% - nuclear energy
[2]
Related Technologies
Smart sensors; LED lighting; fuel cells;
electric cars; green building; solar
batteries; green IT; modular nuclear
power; smart infrastructures [3]
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
http://www.ivt.su/news/zelenye-tekhnologii-posle-olimpiady-v-sochi/
http://www.rg.ru/2014/09/23/ofis.html
http://www.icsgroup.ru/library/publications/detail.php?ID=83495
http://greenevolution.ru/2013/12/27/zelenye-texnologii-rossii-5-vazhnyx-itogov-2013-go-goda/
19. Waste recycling and disposal gain momentum in Russia
(including Electric and Electronic Waste)
Municipal solid waste (MSW) management
system is one of the key components of a
country’s overall environmental and resource
efficiency framework.
The volume of MSW in Russia has been steadily
increasing in recent years: more than 48 million
metric tons of municipal solid waste was
generated in the Russian Federation in 2010, 95%
of which was sent for disposal, mostly in landfill
sites. In contrast to most countries in the EU,
which typically recover around 60% of municipal
waste, in Russia, most of it is just thrown away.
Inefficient MSW treatment in Russia today is
causing both negative environmental impact and
results in suboptimal use of raw materials and
energy.
Currently recycling waste is significantly less
profitable than landfills in Russia. It is expected
that incentives will be created to facilitate the
development of waste recycling and disposal
industry in order to adverse the negative impact
on environment
Evidence for occurrence
•
Till the end of 2014 Russian parliamentarians
are going to adopt amendments to the bill on
waste introducing the utilization fee
•
Youth Business International Environmental
Entrepreneur of the Year prize in 2012 went to
the founders of one of the first waste collection
and recycling companies in Russia
Opportunities for Russia
•
If Russia optimized its MSW management policy
and implements modern technologies, by 2025
it could fully shift towards environmentally
friendly MSW management system and recover
up to 45% of waste
•
Decreasing toxic substances that accumulate in
a landfill and infiltrate the soil and groundwater
and pollute the air.
•
Lower risk of landfill fires
Threats for Russia
•
If waste recycling policy fails to start functioning
properly, the costs of establishing new landfills
and addressing their negative externalities
would rise substantially
Further indicators:
References
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
Engineers at the Kuzbass Techno Park in Kemerovo (Western
Siberia) have developed a technology to commercially recycle Ewaste. The annual output from discarded devices amount to 700
kgs of silver, 8 kgs of palladium and 4 kgs of gold [1]
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Political
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Market size
Experts estimate that the Russian waste
market has a potential value of US$3.5
billion
Related technologies
•
•
•
•
Irrigation
Desalination
Water purification
Water storage and distribution
http://voiceofrussia.com/2012_11_03/Kemerovo-to-recycle-E-waste/
http://www.rbcdaily.ru/industry/562949986334712
http://theenergycollective.com/charles-arthur/314891/good-business-karton-chernozemie
http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/a00336804bbed60f8a5fef1be6561834/PublicationRussi
aRREP-SolidWasteMngmt-2012-en.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
20. Potential disruption in the nuclear fuel industry with
the introduction of the full cycle technology
Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation has
started a project to develop the new
generation of fast neutron reactors and
establish technologies for looping the nuclear
fuel cycle. In 2011, the site location and
specifications were endorsed. In 2012, a
special entity within Rosatom has been
established to run the project. News in 2013
and 2014 indicate that the project is on the
run. The main purpose is to close the loop for
the nuclear fuel cycle by 2025. It means that
the waste fuel from traditional thermalneutron reactors will be used as a fuel for
fast-neutron reactors, while the nuclear
waste of the latter is reprocessed, blended
with other nuclear fuel components and used
again in thermal-neutron reactors. Over 40
years, a number of technical issues hindered
the implementation of this idea around the
globe. The fact that Rosatom has started such
an ambitious project hints that its scientists
may have resolved those issues and may
introduce a disruptive process next 20 years.
Evidence for occurrence
•
State strategies and programs in atomic energy
•
Rosatom R&D programs and announcements
•
New 800 MWT fast neutron reactor put into
operation in Beloyarsk recently
Opportunities for Russia
•
Global challenge of uranium-235 depletion will
be addressed and much more abundant
uranium-238 will be rendered usable for energy
generation. This can dramatically reduce nuclear
fuel consumption per kilowatt-hour of electricity
produced, and alleviate the environmental
consequences of nuclear waste disposal
•
Russia can significantly reduce its dependence
on external sources of uranium (Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Ukraine)
•
Rosatom can disrupt global markets and create
a global monopolistic niche for itself in the
future.
•
Gas consumption for domestic electricity
generation can be reduced allowing Russia to
export more gas
Threats for Russia
•
•
Dependence of R&D sector on federal budget
which is highly vulnerable to oil market prices
Possibility that the EU and the US will start their
own ambitious programs in the field and threat
the global market position of Rosatom in the
future
Further indicators
•
The new nuclear facility will feature two reactors: 1200 MWT fast neutron
reactor with sodium heat carrier and a demonstrational BREST-OD 300
MWT fast neutron with liquid lead heat carrier
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Economic
Environmental
According to statistica.com, global
market of the “front end of fuel cycle” is
more than 17 billion dollars today and
can reach 26 billion dollars by 2030,
while spent nuclear fuel reprocessing
and secondary fuel market is more than
3 billion dollars today and will reach 9
billion by 2030.
Related Technologies
•
•
•
•
•
•
Breeder reactors
Heat-neutron reactors
Thorium fuel cycle
Plutonium production, transportation, and
storage
Radioactive waste disposal technologies
Uranium in-situ recovery (lixiviation)
References:
1.
2.
3.
Technological
http://www.atomic-energy.ru/tema/zamknutyi-yadernyi-toplivnyi-tsikl
http://www.niirosatom.ru/wps/wcm/connect/nii/mainsite/about/proriv/
http://programs.gov.ru/Portal/programs/passport/22
21. Possible boom in non-traditional oil and gas extraction
due to state tax policy
On July 23, 2013 the Federal Law N213 has
been endorsed by the President of Russia
allowing the Government to differentiate
rates of tax on the extraction of minerals and
providing a framework for setting differential
tax formulas based on hydrocarbons collector
properties and degree of depletion of a
deposit. The law set zero tax for hydrocarbons
extracted from Bazhenov, Abalak, Khadum,
and Domanik formations (large potential
sources of shale/tight oil, which is technically
difficult and costly to extract). News continue
to appear in the media on efforts of the
Government and oil companies to strike a
balance between sustaining budget income
from oil industry and stimulating oil
production. Policy options include taxing
companies depending on their financial
results instead of amount of crude oil
produced. Considering the deteriorating size
and quality of current oil deposits, additional
tax deductions may provide companies to
continue their efforts in extracting tight oil.
Evidence for occurrence
•
High officials of the Government and of the
Ministry of Energy continue to make statements
on the issue
•
News in media refer to a number of reforms,
including tax incentives and stimulation of
exploitation of depleted deposits after large
companies by the medium enterprises
Anticipated impacts Social
Value
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Opportunities for Russia
•
Increasing the oil reserves by decades at current
levels of production
•
Developing and exporting advanced shale oil
extraction technologies
Threats for Russia
•
New geopolitical reality forces Russian
companies to develop tight oil extraction
technologies and equipment in-house instead of
buying them abroad; it can dramatically increase
the costs
•
A number of environmental issues will arise if
shale/tight oil production grows quickly
Further indicators
•
Data on Rosneft technological capacity and development level shows that
it is one of the most advanced oil companies in the world:
http://www.rosneft.com/attach/0/02/99/cera_week_en.pdf
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Now, less than a million tons (0.2 per
cent of Russian oil) is extracted from
Bazhenov formation deposits. It can
increase to 5-6 million tons by 2020,
according to experts
Related Technologies
Directional drilling
Multistage hydraulic fracturing
Synthetic drilling fluids
Arctic shelf drilling
Water-efficient methods of increasing
the oil recovery factor
References:
1.
2.
3.
http://www.klerk.ru/buh/news/331001/
http://izvestia.ru/news/564521
http://expert.ru/2014/10/25/slantsevuyu-revolyutsiyu-v-rossii-hotyat-sdelat-rukamichastnikov/?ny
22. Rapid advancement of renewable energy technologies
and decentralization of power generation
The deployment of solar and wind power has
increased substantially over the last decade
both in the world and in Russia. Typically,
production and installation costs have
decreased dramatically, but the picture is not
always clear. Investment costs depend heavily
on project characteristics such as the
construction location. For instance, new
offshore wind turbines have larger capacities
but are constructed on increasingly deeper
sea beds, which is more costly. At the same
time remoteness from the power
transmission grid is favorable for the
economic competitiveness of photovoltaics.
Although, traditional energy sources remain
high in the energy mix and nuclear energy still
remains as one of the primary electric energy
sources, the demand for safer alternative
energy generation technologies is expected
to rise in Russia due to the possibilities for
power generation decentralisation and
increasing concerns for environment.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Californian startup EnerVault developed a
unique battery technology which may replace
natural gas “peaker plants” and provide roundthe-clock power from wind and solar farms
through grid stabilization services
•
Installed solar jumped 26 per cent - from 31
Gigawatts in 2012 to a record 39 GW in 2013
even as investment in solar capacity decreased
23 per cent from US$135.6 billion to US$104.1
billion.
•
In 2013 for the first time China invested more in
renewable energy than Europe
Opportunities for Russia
•
Renewables may enable decentralization of
power generation, especially in terms of
supplying energy to far and remote parts of the
country
•
The continuation of the trend may lead to
reassessment of alternative energy sources
significance within Russia in general
Threats for Russia
•
Substantially raising competitiveness of solar
and wind power unavoidably lowers global
demand for oil, gas and coal, the main Russian
export goods
Further indicators
References
•
1.
2.
Russia held its first ever state-backed renewable energy source investment project
auctions in September 2013, giving out subsidies for 39 sustainable power projects
with a combined capacity of 504 MW.
3.
Anticipated impacts 5Social
Value
4
3
2
1
0
Political
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Value of renewable energy capacity by 2030 [1]
Related technologies
• Energy conversion
• Electric power transmission
and distribution
• Energy storage
http://about.bnef.com/
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/the-smarter-grid/new-flow-battery-aims-toreplace-gas-plants
http://www.iea.org/publications/TCEP_web.pdf
23. Growing potential for conflict between water
consumption and energy generation
Energy is considered more and more widely
as a factor contributing to the drinking water
shortages in some regions of the world. For
instance, coal power plants are the most
water-intensive, while the governments
realize more and more clearly that coal share
in energy generation not only will stop falling
but will, most probably, rise in the future
because of the lack of oil and gas resources
and a number of issues with alternative
energy. Current water consumption structure
would lead to water crises in various regions
of the world. Demand has been increasing for
water-free cooling technologies in the energy
sector and alternative heat carriers at
convectional power plants. Disruptive
technological innovations in energy industry,
primarily in the fields of cooling systems,
alternative heat carriers, and co-generation
technologies may emerge soon. Russia has
strong technological potentials in this area as
well as potentials for creating a new export
niche for Russia in drinkable water export.
Evidence for occurrence
•
Discussions of the necessity for Russia to be in
line with the newest technological trends,
including, water-efficient technologies (e.g.
http://www.rg.ru/2014/05/30/sberezenie.html)
•
The Federal Law is enacted in 2014 that lays
framework for the use of the best available
technologies principles in industrial policy (see
http://www.kremlin.ru/news/46298)
Opportunities for Russia
•
Exports of the “electricity-heat” and “electricityheat-cooling” generation technologies and
equipment to the developing countries
•
Advancing liquid-metal heat-transfer circuits
technologies
•
Developing large-scale wind energy generation
in the Arctic and exporting electricity to Middle
Asia, Mongolia, and China
Threats for Russia
•
No direct threats due to the abundance of water
resources and advanced energy generation
technologies
Further indicators
References:
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
Patents: “Gas turbine engine with liquid metal cooling” (USA, 2013); “Auxiliary
heating system of liquid heavy metal cooling natural circulating pool-type reactor”
(China, 2014); “One energy conservation cold heat source water supply system”
(China, 2013)
Anticipated impacts
Value
Social
5
4
3
2
1
0
Policy
Market size
Technological
Economic
Environmental
According to the thewatercouncil.com,
the world water market outreaches 400
billion US Dollars
Related Technologies
Water desalination
Water condensation
Liquid-metal heating circuits
Co-generation of energy
Triple-generation of energy
Coal gasification / liquefaction
Communal services
Water consumption accounting
http://www.shapingtomorrow.com/g/insights/270523
http://www.rg.ru/2014/07/25/eco-dok.html
http://www.alrc.doe.gov/technologies/coalpower/ewr/water/pp-mgmt/pubs/desalination_paper.pdf
http://www.thewatercouncil.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/EDA-Report.pdf
Contact
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Research Professor, HSE
[email protected]
Acknowledgements: The project team is grateful to the following colleagues for their valuable comments and contributions:
•
Professor Leonid Gokhberg (HSE)
•
Dr. Tatiana Kuznetsova (HSE)
•
Dr. Galina Kitova (HSE)
•
Ms. Elena Nasybulina (HSE)
•
Ms. Svetlana Malchenko (HSE)
•
Mr. Paval Bakhtin (HSE)
•
Ms. Alexandra Zimireva (HSE)
•
Mr. Ilia Kuzminov (HSE)
•
Mr. Sergey Bredikhin (HSE)
and all other colleagues who have taken part in the workshops organised for the Russia 360° theme during October 2014.