The Year of the isms:
How Understanding 2016 Requires Re-thinking
What Pollsters Ask
Brian F. Schaffner
University of Massachusetts Amherst
UMass Poll
Cooperative Congressional Election Study
November 16, 2016
The information pollsters typically produce
Source: October 2016 WBZ/UMass Poll of New Hampshire likely voters.
Why this information?
I
It’s efficient (we collect the data anyway for weighting)
I
It’s easy to understand
I
It’s how we’ve always done it
Why this information?
I
It’s efficient (we collect the data anyway for weighting)
I
It’s easy to understand
I
It’s how we’ve always done it
But 2016 should make us re-think whether this
information is sufficient for understanding
present-day politics
Began to see this during the primaries
In wake of this general election, our traditional measures mean
that we are producing consistent narratives about who mattered,
but competing narratives about why
In wake of this general election, our traditional measures mean
that we are producing consistent narratives about who mattered,
but competing narratives about why
In wake of this general election, our traditional measures mean
that we are producing consistent narratives about who mattered,
but competing narratives about why
In wake of this general election, our traditional measures mean
that we are producing consistent narratives about who mattered,
but competing narratives about why
Trying to understand the why
I
Nationally representative survey of 2,000 American adults
conducted by YouGov
I
Includes over-samples of blacks and Latinos (400 each)
I
Field dates: October 25th - 31st
I
Survey was conducted for research purposes; results were
never released
I
We included a variety of different batteries to measure
concepts like sexism, racism, authoritarianism, etc.
I
Presidential top line was Clinton +4 among likely voters
The limits of what we typically measure
Ideology
7 point Party ID
Female
30-54
55+
Some college
College degree
Postgraduate
Less than $40k
$40k - $100k
Over $100k
White
Black
Hispanic
-4
-2
0
2
Size of Coefficient
4
Meausring Economic Insecurity
All things considered, how satisfied are you with your overall
economic situation?
Meausring Economic Insecurity
All things considered, how satisfied are you with your overall
economic situation?
y
er
Ve
r
M
od
Ex
tre
m
el
y
sa
tis
fie
d
sa
tis
at
fi
ed
el
y
sa
Sl
tis
ig
fie
ht
d
ly
N
sa
ot
tis
sa
fie
tis
d
fie
d
at
al
l
0
10
Percent
20
30
40
How satisfied are you with
your overall economic situation?
Measuring Sexism
Measured with 5-point agreement/disagreement scales to the
following items:
I
Many women are actually seeking special favors, such as
hiring policies that favor them over men, under the guise of
asking for “equality.”
I
Women are too easily offended.
I
Women seek to gain power by getting control over men.
I
When women lose to men in a fair competition, they typically
complain about being discriminated against.
Measuring Sexism
Measured with 5-point agreement/disagreement scales to the
following items:
I
Many women are actually seeking special favors, such as
hiring policies that favor them over men, under the guise of
asking for “equality.”
I
Women are too easily offended.
I
Women seek to gain power by getting control over men.
I
When women lose to men in a fair competition, they typically
complain about being discriminated against.
0
5
Percent
10
15
Hostile Sexism
Least
sexist
Most
sexist
Measuring Racism
Measured with 6-point agreement/disagreement scales to the
following items:
I
I am angry that racism exists.
I
White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of
the color of their skin.
I
Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations.
Measuring Racism
Measured with 6-point agreement/disagreement scales to the
following items:
I
I am angry that racism exists.
I
White people in the U.S. have certain advantages because of
the color of their skin.
I
Racial problems in the U.S. are rare, isolated situations.
0
5
Percent
10
15
Acknowledgement of Racism
Most acknowledging
of racism
Most denying
of racism
Hostile sexism scale
Racism acknowledgement scale
Dissatisfaction with econ. situation
Ideology
7 point Party ID
Female
30-54
55+
Some college
College degree
Postgraduate
Less than $40k
$40k - $100k
Over $100k
White
Black
Hispanic
-4
-2
0
2
Size of Coefficient
4
Most
satisfied
Least
satisfied
Least
sexist
.4
Prob. of voting for Trump
.5
.6
.7
Acknowledgement of Racism
.3
.4
Prob. of voting for Trump
.5
.6
.7
Hostile Sexism
.3
.3
.4
Prob. of voting for Trump
.5
.6
.7
Economic Dissatisfaction
Most Most acknowledging
sexist
of racism
Most denying
of racism
isms not uniquely related to views of Clinton
Effect of sexism on favorability ratings
.5
Favorability
Obama
Clinton
Obama
Clinton
Most acknowledging
Most denying
of racism
of racism
Acknowledgement of Racism
.3
.2
.3
.4
Favorability
.4
.5
.6
.6
Effect of racism on favorability ratings
Least sexist
Most sexist
Degree of sexism
isms are uniquely related to views of Trump
.5
Favorability
.4
McCain
Romney
Trump
McCain
Romney
Trump
.2
.2
.3
.3
Favorability
.4
.5
.6
Effect of sexism on favorability ratings
.6
Effect of racism on favorability ratings
Most acknowledging
Most denying
of racism
of racism
Acknowledgement of Racism
Least sexist
Most sexist
Degree of sexism
Sexism uniquely affected vote choice in 2016
Note: UMass Poll of 772 likely voters in New Hampshire (Oct. 17 - 21st).
Summing up
I
The story of why people supported Trump doesn’t lend itself
easily to one simple narrative
Summing up
I
The story of why people supported Trump doesn’t lend itself
easily to one simple narrative
I
Partisanship, ideology, and economic insecurity were all
important, as they have been in past elections
Summing up
I
The story of why people supported Trump doesn’t lend itself
easily to one simple narrative
I
I
Partisanship, ideology, and economic insecurity were all
important, as they have been in past elections
But the isms were a big part of the story, and somewhat
uniquely so with this election
Summing up
I
The story of why people supported Trump doesn’t lend itself
easily to one simple narrative
I
I
I
Partisanship, ideology, and economic insecurity were all
important, as they have been in past elections
But the isms were a big part of the story, and somewhat
uniquely so with this election
But we can only tell this story by asking the right questions
Summing up
I
The story of why people supported Trump doesn’t lend itself
easily to one simple narrative
I
I
I
Partisanship, ideology, and economic insecurity were all
important, as they have been in past elections
But the isms were a big part of the story, and somewhat
uniquely so with this election
But we can only tell this story by asking the right questions
Maybe our crosstabs should look more like this:
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Not sure
Women seek power by
getting control over men
Agree
Disagree
26
63
59
23
3
5
4
3
White people have advantages
because color of their skin
Agree
Disagree
67
16
19
70
5
4
4
4
How satisfied are you with
overall economic situation
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
57
30
30
56
4
4
3
5