Demographic Trends:
Understanding the impact of a
changing population on Colorado
September 2011
Elizabeth Garner
[email protected]
State Demography Office
www.colorado.gov/demography
State Demography Office
• State Agency
– Responsible for population data needed by state
agencies and local governments.
• Department of Local Affairs
– Prepares data and information in ways that account
for local perspectives, needs.
• Public Information
– Makes data and information readily available to the
public, including citizens, businesses and non-profit
agencies.
• Outreach
– Work with local governments and others to
understand what the numbers are saying
2010
Top 5 Counties for Population Growth
Population Change 2000-2010
Percent
Colorado
16.92% Colorado
Douglas
62.41% Douglas
Weld
39.73% El Paso
Garfield
28.77% Arapahoe
Mesa
26.21% Adams
Eagle
25.30% Weld
Source: Census 2010
Total
727,935
109,699
105,334
84,036
77,746
71,889
Population Change Under 18 years
Change in the Population Under 18
Growth
Decline
Douglas
31,535 Otero
-798
Adams
22,167 Prowers
-941
El Paso
20,196 Fremont
-1,293
Weld
19,368 Boulder
-4,083
Arapahoe
16,970 Jefferson
-14,396
Douglas
Weld
Eagle
Garfield
San Miguel
56.8%
38.0%
30.8%
28.1%
24.4%
Source: Census 2010
Sedgwick
Huerfano
Cheyenne
Jackson
Mineral
-26.4%
-27.9%
-29.9%
-35.5%
-40.6%
Population Change 65+
Population Change 65+ Top 5 Counties
Growth
El Paso
17,264 Summit
180%
Jefferson
16,585 Douglas
178%
Arapahoe
15,651 Eagle
135%
Douglas
13,021 San Migue
133%
Larimer
11,504 San Juan
121%
Decline
Sedgwick
Cheyenne
Bent
Baca
Denver
-38
-42
-66
-103
-294
Denver
Sedgwick
Bent
Baca
Cheyenne
0%
-6%
-7%
-10%
-11%
Municipal Population Change
Population Change by Municipality 2000-10
Growth
Decline
55,537 Wheat Ridge city
Colorado Springs city
48,685 Englewood city
Aurora city
Denver city
45,522 Lakewood city
Thornton city
36,388 Walsenburg city
Castle Rock town
28,007 Lamar city
Firestone town
Severance town
Frederick town
Erie town
Monument town
Source: Census 2010
431.81%
430.15%
251.80%
188.27%
180.57%
South Fork town
Garden City town
Genoa town
Campo town
Hartman town
-2,747
-1,472
-1,146
-1,114
-1,065
-36.09%
-34.45%
-34.12%
-27.33%
-27.03%
Population by Race and Ethnicity
US Census
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Am. Ind. & Alaska Native
Other Race
Two or More Races
Asian/ Pacific Islander
Black/ African American
Hispanic
White
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
2000
2010
9
Growth in Hispanic Population
2000-2010
Source: Census 2010
Trends we’re watching
• Relationship of jobs, people and
community services.
• Aging of the “Baby Boomers”
• Household formation
• Income distribution
• Increasing racial and ethnic diversity
• Changes in occupational mix
Economic and Population Forecasts
•
Population change tied to
understandings of both economic and
demographic change.
–
–
Demographic cohort-survival model = supply
of labor provided by existing populations.
Economic forecast = demand for labor.
•
•
•
–
Economic Drivers
National Forecast
Local information – openings/closures
Differences in labor supply vs. labor demand
resolved by the net migration of populations
and associated household members
Components of Population Change
140,000
Colorado Population Change
120,000
Net Migration
Natural increase
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
7
3
20
3
20
3
20
2
1
8
5
2
9
6
3
4
20
2
20
2
20
1
20
1
20
1
20
0
20
0
20
0
7
4
0
20
0
19
9
19
9
8
5
1
19
9
19
8
19
8
9
6
3
2
19
8
19
7
19
7
19
7
19
7
0
0
-20,000
-40,000
Source: State Demography Office
Domestic migration, 2000 to 2010
Source: State Demography Office, US Census
Population by Sub-State Area
8,000,000
EASTERN PLAINS
SAN LUIS VALLEY
CENTRAL MTNS.
WESTERN SLOPE
FRONT RANGE
7,000,000
6,000,000
7.1 million
5.03 million
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source: State Demography Office
Baby Boomers – Major Demographic
Impact to Colorado
• Born 1946 – 1964 (between 47-65 years old)
• Between 2000 and 2010, Colorado’s
population 55 – 64 increased by an annual
average of 6.1% from 338,000 to 619,000
compared to the total population of 1.7%
• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be
150% larger than it was 2010 growing from
540,000 to 1,350,000. (just from aging)
• Colorado Population over 65 was 330K in
1990
Annual Average Growth, 2010 - 2020
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Total Colorado
Population
CO Population,
ages 65-74
US Population,
ages 65-74
Source: State Demography Office
Colorado Population by Age, 1990
110,000
Colorado Population By Age, 1990
Source: State Demography Office, Dola
100,000
3,300,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Age
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Colorado Population by Age, 2000
110,000
Colorado Population By Age, 2000
Source: State Demography Office, Dola
100,000
4,340,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Age
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Colorado Population by Age 2010
110,000
Colorado Population By Age, 2010
Source: State Demography Office, Dola
100,000
5,030,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Age
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Colorado Population by Age 2020
110,000
Colorado Population By Age, 2020
Source: State Demography Office, Dola
100,000
6,170,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Age
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Colorado Population by Age, 1990, 2010
and 2030
110,000
Colorado Population By Age
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Age
1990
2010
2030
Source: State Demography Office
Regional differences
Percent of the Population 65+
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
State of
Colorado
Front Range Western Slope
2010
2020
Central
Mountains
2030
Eastern Plains
San Luis
Valley
2040
Source: State Demography Office
Colorado
133,500
32%
Aging Issues
• Numbers
– Colorado has never had many older people
• 4th lowest in 65+ (2000 Census)
• 6th highest in baby boomers - 31% (2000 Census)
• Migrate in people primarily 20-40
• Economic Driver - wealthier …. depends
– Spending of people 65+ supported approximately
118,000 jobs in 2009. (.25 jobs per person 65+)
– Forecast to support 346,000 by 2030
– Impact on occupational mix
• Health Services both high and low end
• Retirees – will they stay or go? – where will
they go? Migration?
– Location choice related to amenities, health
services, transportation services, costs.
– Disabilities
Labor Force
• Boomers are 37% of the labor force (2010)
– Staying longer in workforce – want and need to
– LFPR for ages 65+ has been increasing since
1998. Had been declining since 1946
– By 2020 workers 65+ 6.7% of labor force
compared to 3.4% in 2010.
– Approx. 1,000,000 workers will be aging out of
the labor force over the next 20 years.
• Increase demands
– Replacement
– new demands created by retiree needs
– Increase in demand for caregivers – informal
sector
• Demands will vary by industry
Growth in Households by Age by Decade
80%
Source: Census Bureau (1990-2000) State Demography Office (2010-2030)
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1990-00
-10%
2000-10
18-24
25-44
2010-20
45-64
65 & Over
2020-30
Aging Issues
Housing and Household Trends
• Retirees – will they stay or go? – where will
they go? Migration?
• Household size is shrinking
– Baby boomers – kids are leaving
– 38% of households over 65 are living alone
– Approximately 1.5% of the population over 60 is
responsible for a grandchild
– Households at risk – single older women.
• Type of housing – demand by age.
– Developers should watch demographic changes
• Location choice related to amenities, health
services, transportation services, costs.
Aged Dependency Ratio
Pop 65+ per person 18-64
2010
2040
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
State of
Colorado
Front Range
Western
Slope
Eastern
Plains
San Luis
Valley
Central
Mountains
Source: State Demography Office
Aging Issues - Public Policy/Public
Finance
• Ratio of 65+ per 20-64 year olds in CO
– Becoming more “normal”
•
•
•
•
•
•
Workers vs. non workers
Civic Engagement – voting block
Sales Tax – change in expenditures
Transportation – public
Health Services
Age Relationships
• Demands of 65+ vs. demands <65.
Demographics and Income
• Age distribution
– Potential to decrease median household income as more
people become non-workers.
• Occupational mix is changing – based partially on
demographics.
– Growth projected at the higher and lower ends of pay range.
• Race/ethnicity of householder
– Education
– Income - wealth
• Largest job declines have been at the low wage
occupations.
• Youth unemployment – long term permanent impact on
earnings.
• Poverty and Income inequality growing.
Conclusions
• The relationship between jobs and people
(potential labor force) is critical to
understand.
• Becoming more racially diverse – young
end.
• The aging of the “baby boomers” will greatly
impact our concept of retirement and aging.
• End of “Demographic Dividend”
• Income inequality and declining household
income.
www.colorado.gov/demography
Thank you!
www.colorado.gov/demography
Elizabeth Garner
State Demography Office
Department of Local Affairs
[email protected]
303-866-3096