American Journal of Epidemiology © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]. Vol. 178, No. 8 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwt176 Advance Access publication: August 21, 2013 Practice of Epidemiology Customized Versus Population-Based Birth Weight Charts for the Detection of Neonatal Growth and Perinatal Morbidity in a Cross-Sectional Study of Term Neonates Angela E. Carberry*, Camille H. Raynes-Greenow, Robin M. Turner, and Heather E. Jeffery * Correspondence to Dr. Angela Carberry, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Edward Ford Building (A27), Sydney 2006, New South Wales, Australia (e-mail: [email protected]). Initially submitted November 7, 2012; accepted for publication April 17, 2013. Customized birth weight charts that incorporate maternal characteristics are now being adopted into clinical practice. However, there is controversy surrounding the value of these charts in the prediction of growth and perinatal outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess the use of customized charts in predicting growth, defined by body fat percentage, and perinatal morbidity. A total of 581 term (≥37 weeks’ gestation) neonates born in Sydney, Australia, in 2010 were included. Body fat percentage measurements were taken by using air displacement plethysmography. Objective composite measurements of perinatal morbidity were used to identify neonates who had poor outcomes; these data were extracted from medical records. The value of customized charts was assessed by calculating positive predictive values, negative predictive values, and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Customized versus population-based charts did not improve the prediction of either low body fat percentage (59% vs. 66% positive predictive value and 87% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively) or high body fat percentage (48% vs. 53% positive predictive value and 90% vs. 89% negative predictive value, respectively). Customized charts were not better than population-based charts at predicting perinatal morbidity (for customized charts, odds ratio = 1.02, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.04; for population-based charts, odds ratio = 1.03, 95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.05) per percentile decrease in birth weight. Customized birth weight charts do not provide significant improvements over population-based charts in predicting neonatal growth and morbidity. birth weight; fetal development; infant; infant nutrition disorders; malnutrition; newborn; nutrition assessment; perinatal care; predictive value of tests Abbreviations: ADP, air displacement plethysmography; LGA, large for gestational age; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; SGA, small for gestational age. Editor’s note: An invited commentary on this article appears on page 1309. or as having weights that are less than the 10th birth weight percentile, and many are in fact constitutionally small but normal. Alternatively, birth weight that is higher than the 10th percentile does not necessarily suggest “normal” growth for a neonate (2–4). Traditionally, growth has been assessed by using birth weight percentiles according to population-based birth weight charts that correct for gestational age and sex. Recently, it has been proposed that customized birth weight charts that account for maternal characteristics are better at determining neonatal growth and the risk of perinatal morbidity One of the biggest global public health challenges is the accurate assessment of neonatal growth both in utero and postnatally (1). Of particular importance is the determination of whether a neonate has been pathologically growth restricted in utero as opposed to being a small but healthy neonate. These neonates are often classified as small for gestational age (SGA), 1301 Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 1302 Carberry et al. (5). Customized birth weight charts additionally adjust for maternal height, weight, ethnicity, and parity, all of which are factors known to influence growth (3); however, there is ongoing debate as to whether this is appropriate. The current literature is inconsistent regarding the true effectiveness of customized charts in predicting growth and risk (1). Several studies have shown that neonates identified as SGA by customized birth weight charts have higher associated risks of perinatal morbidity and mortality, including stillbirth (5, 6), compared with those identified as SGA by populationbased charts. These findings have prompted recommendations for customized birth weight charts to be adopted for use in clinical practice worldwide (3, 5, 6). On the other hand, further studies have shown that the use of customized birth weight charts results in overestimation of perinatal mortality and morbidity risks because of the inclusion of preterm neonates in the analyses (7–9). A deficiency in these studies is the lack of a “gold standard” determination of neonatal growth. Few studies exist that assess the efficacy of customized birth weight charts against an accurate measure of neonatal growth restriction. It is well known that birth weight alone is not sufficient as a measure of neonatal growth. Key indicators of the adequacy of neonatal growth, including body fat and lean muscle tissue, are not evident by using measures of birth weight (10). Thus, measurement of newborn body fat percentage can provide an accurate assessment of substrate depletion and an estimate of morbidity risk, such as failure of alternative substrates for brain metabolism, hypothermia, and feeding difficulties (11). Currently, there are no studies available that investigate neonatal body fat percentage and associated perinatal morbidity in relationship to customized versus population-based birth weight chart percentiles in a population of term neonates. Therefore, the aims of this study were to a) predict body fat percentage as an indicator of growth, and specifically undernutrition and overnutrition, by using customized versus population-based birth weight charts, and b) determine which birth weight charts better predict perinatal morbidity. MATERIALS AND METHODS Sampling and design By using a cross-sectional design, we recruited subjects from term singleton neonates born at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital in Sydney, Australia, between September and October 2010. Royal Prince Alfred Hospital is a major public teaching hospital with a predominantly inner-urban, multicultural population and more than 5,000 obstetric deliveries per year. Eligible subjects were healthy neonates born at term (37–42 weeks’ gestation), who were recruited within 48 hours after birth. Exclusions included neonates with major congenital abnormalities, those who were part of multiple births, preterm neonates, or those with admissions to the neonatal intensive care unit for longer than 48 hours, because illness or invasive monitoring prevented measurement collection. The sample size was based on the main study goal of estimating the number of neonates with low body fat percentage (11); a minimum sample size of 384 was required to provide a 95% confidence interval of plus or minus 3%, assuming a 10% prevalence of neonates with low body fat percentage, producing 95% confidence interval bounds of 7% and 13% (11). A sample size of 384 ensured the study was sufficiently powered at 90% to detect differences between an area under the curve of 0.80 and 0.85 (12). Data collection Neonatal data included birth weight (in grams), length, sex, gestational age (in weeks) and body fat percentage. SGA was defined as less than the 10th percentile of birth weight, and large for gestational age (LGA) was defined as greater than the 90th percentile of birth weight (13). Body fat percentage measurements were performed within the first 48 hours after birth by using the PEA POD air displacement plethysmography (ADP) system (COSMED USA, Inc., Concord, California). Before testing, the infant’s clothes were removed and a head cap was applied or the hair smoothed to reduce the amount of air behaving isothermically. The infant’s mass was measured by using the integrated scale. Mass and volume calibrations took into account the presence of 2 hospital identification bracelets and an umbilical cord clip on each neonate at birth. The body fat percentage was computed on the basis of a 2compartment model—fat and fat-free compartments (14). Neonatal length measurements required for ADP calculations were obtained to the nearest 0.1 cm from heel to crown by 2 trained personnel by using an Easy-Glide bearing infantometer (Perspective Enterprises, Inc., Portage, Michigan). The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.968, showing good interrater reliability (15). Birth weight was measured to within 0.1 g by using the digital scales on the PEA POD system. The method for measuring length and anthropometry was taught and assessed by a neonatologist (H.E.J.), and competency was confirmed before data collection. Gestational age (in weeks) was calculated from the first day of the mother’s last menstrual period by using Naegele’s rule. Undernutrition (low body fat percentage) and overnutrition (high body fat percentage) were defined as 1 standard deviation above or below the mean (for males, ≤4.2% or ≥12.7%; for females, ≤5.8% or ≥14.3%). The threshold of 1 standard deviation below the mean provided the best balance between maximum sensitivity without unnecessarily low specificity to detect morbidity compared with 1.5 standard deviations and 2 standard deviations below the mean (11). The population-based birth weight percentile charts were derived from population data obtained from the New South Wales Midwives Data Collection, which includes more than 400,000 births (13). The customized birth weight percentiles were based on the Australian version of the bulk percentiles by using the principles of the Gestational Related Optimal Weight method (www.gestation.net). Mothers completed a short intervieweradministered questionnaire to collect detailed demographic data, including prepregnancy weight, height, ethnicity, and parity, along with details regarding the dating ultrasonography conducted in the first trimester of pregnancy and the total number of ultrasonography examinations during pregnancy. Information about height, weight, and ultrasonography details was based on maternal recall and was checked against the medical records. We excluded cases with insufficient information to calculate a customized birth weight percentile. Perinatal morbidity was defined as having all 3 of the following outcomes: Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 Customized Charts for Detecting Growth and Morbidity hypothermia, longer length of hospital stay, and poor feeding, as described in a previous publication (11). 1303 criteria (Table 1). The total number of neonates with low or high body fat percentages and perinatal outcomes classified as SGA, appropriate for gestational age, or LGA is shown in Table 2. Statistics Population-based versus customized birth weight charts in predicting body fat percentage. Univariate logistic regres- sion was used to assess whether population-based birth weight charts or customized birth weight charts better predicted low and high body fat percentages in the neonates. The linearity of the associations between percentiles and the log odds of the outcomes were assessed by using plots. The sensitivity and specificity at varying thresholds of weight percentiles were used to calculate the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The ability of population-based and customized birth weight charts to predict neonates with low and high body fat percentages was measured by using the area under the ROC curve. We investigated how well the commonly used thresholds for both charts, of less than the 10th birth weight percentile (for SGA infants) and greater than the 90th birth weight percentile (for LGA infants), predicted body fat percentage by using positive predictive values, negative predictive values, sensitivity, and specificity. The ROC curves for low and high body fat percentages were tested to see if they were significantly different (16). Population-based versus customized birth weight charts in predicting perinatal morbidity. To determine which chart better predicted morbidity, we conducted a univariate logistic regression assessing the association of customized and population-based birth weight charts (continuous variables) with perinatal morbidity (based on the composite morbidity measure) and estimated the area under the ROC curve. For both charts, we investigated how well categories of less than the 10th percentile (for SGA infants) and greater than the 90th percentile (for LGA infants) identified neonates with perinatal morbidity by calculating the sensitivity and specificity. The ROC curves for morbidity were tested to see if they were significantly different (16). P values of less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. All analyses were conducted in SPSS, version 19, software(SPSS,Inc.,Chicago,Illinois),SAS,version9.2,software (SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, North Carolina), and Stata, version 11, software (StataCorp LP, College Station, Texas). The study was approved by the human research ethics committees of Royal Prince Alfred Hospital and the University of Sydney. Informed written consent was obtained from parents, and participation was voluntary. Population-based versus customized birth weight charts in predicting body fat percentage The accuracy of customized and population-based percentiles in identifying infants with low body fat percentage is shown in Figure 2. There was no significant difference between the ROC curves for customized and population-based charts (P = 0.08). The positive and negative predictive values were similar for customized versus population-based charts, with 59% versus 66% positive predictive value and 87% versus 89% negative predictive value, respectively. For SGA infants, the sensitivity and specificity analyses showed minimal if any differences between customized and population-based charts with 23% versus 33% sensitivity and 97% versus 97% specificity, respectively. Similarly, the ROC curve demonstrating high body fat percentage as an indication of overnutrition in customized versus population-based charts is shown in Figure 3. There was a significant difference between the ROC curves for both charts, with population-based charts having a better area under the curve than customized charts (for population-based charts, area under the curve = 0.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 0.88; for customized charts, area under the curve = 0.80, 95% confidence interval: 0.75, 0.85) (P = 0.002). The positive and negative predictive values were similar for customized versus population-based charts with 48% versus 53% positive predictive value and 90% versus 89% negative predictive value, respectively. For LGA neonates, the sensitivity and specificity analyses showed nominal differences between customized and population-based charts with 38% versus 37% sensitivity and 93% versus 94% specificity, respectively. The estimates of the positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity for both charts are shown in Table 3. A comparison of customized versus population-based birth weight charts found that, for the neonates classified as having low body fat percentage, 19 were detected by both charts, 10 additional neonates were detected by population-based charts, 1 was detected by customized charts only, and 57 were not detected by either chart. For neonates classified as having high body fat percentage, 25 were detected by both charts, 5 additional neonates were detected by the population-based charts, 6 were detected by customized charts only, and 46 were missed by both charts. RESULTS Population-based versus customized birth weight charts in predicting perinatal morbidity There were 815 term neonates born during the study period. Of the 782 eligible neonates, 581 were enrolled in the study, and 550 had sufficient data for the analysis (Figure 1). The maternal and neonatal characteristics of our cohort are shown in Table 1. Ninety-four percent of women had early ultrasonography dating scans (at <20 weeks’ gestational age), allowing confirmation of the accuracy of gestational age. Seventy-four percent of women had 3 or more ultrasonography scans during their pregnancies (Table 1). Of the neonates, 3.4% were categorized with perinatal morbidity on the basis of our defined Customized birth weight charts were associated with perinatal morbidity with an odds ratio of 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.04) per percentile decrease in birth weight. Similarly, population-based birth weight charts were associated with perinatal morbidity with an odds ratio of 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 1.01, 1.05), indicating that, for both charts, for every 1-percentile decrease in weight, the odds of morbidity increased 1.02–1.03 times; thus, the smaller the neonates, the more likely they were to have morbidity. Model discrimination measured by the area under the ROC curve for customized versus Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 1304 Carberry et al. Figure 1. Recruitment flow chart, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010. population-based charts was 0.67 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.80) versus 0.71 (95% confidence interval: 0.58, 0.83), indicating moderate discrimination for both charts. There was no significant difference between these ROC curves (P = 0.221). The precision of customized and population-based percentiles in identifying infants with poor perinatal morbidity is shown in Figure 4. At the <10th-percentile threshold, the sensitivity and specificity analyses between customized and populationbased charts were 16% versus 32% for sensitivity and 94% versus 93% for specificity, respectively. By using the >90thpercentile threshold in the customized versus population-based charts, sensitivity was 5.2% versus 5.3% and specificity was 88% versus 89%, respectively. Comparison of customized versus population-based birth weight charts when using the <10th-percentile threshold found that, in neonates with perinatal morbidity, 3 were correctly classified by both charts, 3 additional neonates were detected by the population-based charts, no additional neonates were detected by customized charts, and 13 were missed by both charts. In addition, when using the >90th-percentile threshold, both charts detected 1 neonate with no differences found between the 2 charts, and 18 were missed by both charts. DISCUSSION Customized birth weight charts have been postulated as the best method to predict neonates at risk of morbidity, particularly morbidity related to undernutrition. However, studies have been based on the assumption that birth weight measurement is the best measure of growth. Body fat percentage as measured by ADP is highly accurate and is considered the gold standard (17). We used body fat percentage and found that customized percentiles did not improve the prediction of undernutrition, overnutrition, or perinatal morbidity compared with population-based charts. Our findings do not support previous findings favoring customized birth weight charts (5, 18). Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 Customized Charts for Detecting Growth and Morbidity Table 1. Characteristics of Neonates Included in the Analysis, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010 Characteristic Mean (SD) % Table 2. Number of Neonates With Low or High Body Fat Percentages and Poor Perinatal Outcomes Classified by SGA, AGA, and LGA by Customized and Population-Based Birth Weight Charts, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010 Maternal characteristics Height, cm No. With No. With No. With No. With Low Body Normal High Body Poor Fat Body Fat Fat Outcome Percentage Percentage Percentage 164.7 (6.8) Prepregnancy weight, kg 62.0 (12.2) Parity 0 55 1 34 2 7 ≥3 4 a Ethnicity European 60 African 0.5 Middle Eastern 3 Chinese 25 Samoan/Tongan 1.5 Indian/Pakistani 5 Other 5 b 1305 Early ultrasonography dating scans 94 ≥3 Ultrasonography scans during pregnancy 74 Customized birth weight charts SGAa 20 14 0 3 b AGA 65 337 51 15 LGAc 2 32 31 1 Populationbased birth weight charts SGA 29 15 0 6 AGA 57 342 52 12 LGA 1 26 30 1 Abbreviations: AGA, appropriate for gestational age; LGA, large for gestational age; SGA, small for gestational age. a Less than the 10th percentile for birth weight. b Between the 10th and 90th percentiles for birth weight. c Greater than the 90th percentile for birth weight. Fetal characteristics Birth weight, g Gestational age, weeks 3,428.6 (465.9) 39.3 (1.1) Male sex Body fat percentage at birth 51.9 9.2 (4.3) Perinatal morbidity 3.4 Abbreviation: SD, standard deviation. a Ethnicity groups were based on those reported in the Australian version of the principles of the Gestational Related Optimal Weight method (www.gestation.net). b Before 20 weeks’ gestation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate customized versus population-based birth weight charts by using ADP to measure growth by body fat percentage in term neonates. One small study by Law et al. (10) assessed the use of customized birth weight charts in a high-risk preterm cohort. The authors reported that customized birth weight charts are better than population-based charts at identifying SGA infants with low body fat percentage in a population of preterm infants with low birth weight (10). The authors measured body fat percentage by using ADP but, because of the prematurity of the neonates, the measurement was not undertaken until, on average, 10 weeks after birth, at which point it may have been significantly different from the body fat percentage at birth (10). Other studies have used birth weight or fetal weight estimated by ultrasonography to determine growth. A major difficulty with these studies is that neonates who have failed to reach their growth potential, such as pathologically small or small-but-healthy neonates, are not detected by using birth weight alone (1). In our study, we were able to overcome this weakness by using an objective diagnostic tool (ADP) to Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 determine body fat percentage, providing accurate anthropometric measurements without observer error. ADP has been validated as a highly accurate tool to measure body fat percentage when compared with gold standard techniques, including the 4-compartment model and physical and biological phantoms (17, 19–23). Figure 2. The receiver operating characteristic curve showing how many neonates with low body fat percentage were correctly identified by customized versus population-based growth charts, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010. One hundred minus the specificity is displayed on the x-axis. 1306 Carberry et al. Figure 3. The receiver operating characteristic curve showing how many neonates with high body fat percentage were correctly identified by customized versus population-based growth charts, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010. One hundred minus the specificity is displayed on the x-axis. Figure 4. The receiver operating characteristic curve showing how many neonates with perinatal morbidity were correctly identified by customized versus population-based growth charts, Sydney, Australia, September–October 2010. One hundred minus the specificity is displayed on the x-axis. Similarly, we were able to assess whether customized or population-based charts were better at predicting perinatal morbidity based on a composite morbidity measure including hypothermia, extended length of hospital stay, and poor feeding. We found no differences between the 2 charts in risk prediction by using this conservative morbidity measure. The effectiveness of customized birth weight charts in predicting perinatal morbidity has mixed support in the literature, and currently there are no randomized controlled trials to assess the true benefits and harms associated with customized versus population-based birth weight charts (2, 18). In particular, Cha et al. (8) examined 9,052 normal singleton deliveries in South Korea and investigated the differences between perinatal morbidity in customized versus population-based charts. The perinatal morbidity definition included 5-minute Apgar scores below 7, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit, and composite morbidity, which included a long list of serious morbidity outcomes including intraventricular hemorrhage, necrotizing enterocolitis, and sepsis and was not significantly different between the 2 charts (8). Conversely, Ego et al. (24) undertook a multicenter study with 56,606 births in France and compared perinatal outcomes between customized and population-based birth weight charts. The perinatal outcomes included cesarean delivery before the onset of labor, 5-minute Apgar score of less than 7, admission Table 3. The Positive Predictive Values, Negative Predictive Values, Sensitivity, and Specificity of Customized and Population-Based Birth Weight Charts, Sydney, Australia September–October 2010 Sensitivity, % 95% CI Specificity, % 95% CI Positive Predictive Value, % 95% CI Negative Predictive Value, % 95% CI SGAa neonates with low body fat percentage 23 15, 33 97 95, 98 59 42, 75 87 84, 90 LGAb neonates with high body fat percentage 38 27, 49 93 90, 95 48 35, 59 90 87, 92 SGA neonates with low body fat percentage 33 24, 44 97 95, 98 66 52, 80 89 86, 91 LGA neonates with high body fat percentage 37 26, 48 94 92, 96 53 40, 66 89 87, 92 Neonatal Weight Category by Chart Type Customized birth weight charts Population-based birth weight charts Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; LGA, large for gestational age; SGA, small for gestational age. a Less than the 10th percentile for birth weight. b Greater than the 90th percentile for birth weight. Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 Customized Charts for Detecting Growth and Morbidity to a neonatal intensive care unit, length of hospital stay, stillbirth, and neonatal death (24). The authors found better prediction of stillbirth and perinatal death in customized versus population-based charts (24). However, their study included births as early as 22 weeks’ gestation, which may have overestimated the perinatal risk. It has been shown in the literature that the inclusion of a preterm population skews perinatal risk, particularly among infants classified as SGA; thus, inclusion of this group may overstate the findings (7, 25). Our study has limitations. ADP technology is relatively new and is not yet available in all clinical settings. Some parents initially found the use of the machine to be intimidating, thus reducing our total cohort size and limiting the generalizability of our findings. The generalizability of our findings is further limited by our restriction to term births. Originally, we were most interested in using body fat percentage to identify undernutrition in term babies who are at increased risk compared with preterm babies of not being recognized as undernourished; thus, we excluded preterm births. Maternal height, weight, and ultrasonography details were self-reported, which may increase the risk of bias, although for most mothers these were crosschecked with their antenatal data. The use of a composite measure of perinatal morbidity including 3 or more outcomes (11) may mean that some individual perinatal outcomes were not included as part of the measure. In our population, the number of neonates with perinatal morbidity was low (3.4%). A priori, we excluded neonates who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit for longer than 48 hours because of inability to access the neonates for data collection. We therefore may have excluded some neonates who are most at risk, although, of the 33 excluded neonates, only 12% were found to be SGA. In many clinical settings in different countries, customized birth weight charts are being introduced into clinical practice to assess neonatal growth and the risk of perinatal morbidity without appropriate evidence to support implementation (2, 26). For this reason, our results are both important and novel for clinicians globally. Our findings highlight the ineffectiveness of customized charts in predicting aberrant growth and perinatal morbidity in a healthy term population by using body fat percentage as an improved measure of growth. In particular, population-based charts had a better area under the curve than customized charts, and population-based charts detected more neonates with low body fat percentage and subsequent morbidity. We speculate that this difference is due to customized charts controlling for maternal weight, height, and ethnicity, and this could be overadjusting for any intergenerational growth stunting. A mother who is short (because of her own stunting in fetal or early neonatal life) may have a low-birth-weight baby that also has a low body fat percentage. The population chart would give a low birth weight percentile, but the customized chart would give the baby a higher birth weight percentile because of the mother’s own low weight and height. We suggest that this may explain why customized charts have diminished usefulness in predicting low body fat percentage and morbidity compared with population-based charts. Most studies that support the use of customized birth weight charts have focused on or included a high-risk preterm population (5). Our study is the first in a term population to use a validated objective measure (body fat percentage) to assess growth and a conservative perinatal morbidity score with a relatively large sample that can Am J Epidemiol. 2013;178(8):1301–1308 1307 be generalized to other populations. Our findings are consistent with Hutcheon et al. (27), who found that customized birth weight charts’ weight-for-gestational-age data do little to improve accurate prediction of perinatal mortality (and in a simulated model, customized charts did not improve the detection of growth restriction) (9). In addition, it has been found that customized birth weight percentiles appear to be an unnecessary addition to clinical care with no meaningful improvements in the detection of neonates who are truly growth restricted (pathologically small) as opposed to those who are normally grown (constitutionally small) (1). Future work, including large randomized control trials, is needed to assess the improvement of both antenatal and postnatal detection of risk and growth in term neonatal populations. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Author affiliations: School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia (Angela E. Carberry, Heather E. Jeffery, Camille H. Raynes-Greenow, Robin M. Turner); Department of Newborn Care, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney Australia (Angela E. Carberry, Heather E. Jeffery). Tenix Sydney (Sydney, Australia) and an anonymous donor from the University of Sydney funded the purchase of the PEA POD air displacement plethysmography equipment. R.M.T. was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council ( program grant 633003 to the Screening and Test Evaluation Program). C.H.R.G. is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship (511481). A.E.C. is supported by an Australian government postgraduate PhD award. 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