Newcastle City Council – Electorate Forecasting Methodology
Introduction
As part of the Electoral Review of Newcastle, we are required to submit current
electorate figures (December 2015) and a forecast of the electorate for each polling
district. This forecast must cover the five year period from the date the Local
Government Boundary Commission for England (the Commission) publish their final
recommendations. Our final recommendations will be published in November 2016
so our forecast is up to 2021.
This report provides a description of the methodology and assumptions we have
made in developing the 2021 electorate forecasts for the 125 polling districts in
Newcastle. We have shared and discussed this with the Commission who are
supportive of our approach. The Commission will make this, and a full suite of
minimum information, available to all stakeholders through their website so they can
participate in consultation on warding patterns. This ensures that all stakeholders
have the same baseline information at their disposal.
The electorate forecast will be used to inform the development of the warding
patterns and to ensure electorate equality is achieved and is sustainable. The
forecast will provide an understanding of likely changes to electorate numbers by
polling districts and wards.
We have used the Commission’s guidance paper ‘Electorate Forecasts – A Guide for
Practitioners’ as a starting point. However, developments within the city means it is
not possible to use historic electorate trends to project forward with confidence. The
methodology therefore needs to reflect:

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

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Projections for the overall growth in the 17+ population;
Plans for new homes, on both green field and brown field sites;
Long-term trends affecting housing composition, which means that areas
where new housing is not being built are likely to experience a small decline in
population;
Developments in student housing which, cater for a degree of growth in the
overall student population and re-allocate existing students into larger scale
student accommodation blocks; and
The impact of Individual Elector Registration (IER) in June 2014, which has
reduced the number of electors significantly in some wards, and subsequent
active measures to increase registration, particularly amongst students.
The forecast for individual polling districts and wards will reflect the net impact of
these trends in each area, which depends on factors such as how the plans for new
homes affect the area, the extent of the student population and the differential impact
of IER.
The forecasting methodology is informed by the Core Strategy and Urban Core Plan
for Gateshead and Newcastle upon Tyne 2010-2030 (the Plan). This has been the
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subject of a formal Examination by an Independent Inspector appointed by the
Government and found to be robustly justified by its evidence base. It therefore
provides a sound basis for assumptions about the location of new homes and the
pattern of population growth across the city.
A broad range of available data has been used to develop this forecast, from
national sources such as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Census 2011
and from local sources such as Electoral Services, the Strategic Housing Land
Availability Assessment (SHLAA) and Council Tax data. Every effort has been taken
to ensure the best possible data has been used to develop the forecast.
Electorate forecasts summary
The electorate forecast figures for each ward are summarised below. The table
includes the latest electorate (December 2015) and the forecast electorate in 2021.
The percentage variance from the average electorate per Councillor is given for each
ward, providing the degree of adjustment to boundaries that is necessary. The
Council will submit an electronic proforma provided by the Commission, which
includes electorate figures by polling district in 2015 and 2021. This will be published
on the Commissions website as part of the consultation process. It is also available
from Council officers on request.
Ward
Benwell and Scotswood
Blakelaw
Byker
Castle
Dene
Denton
East Gosforth
Elswick
Fawdon
Fenham
Kenton
Lemington
Newburn
North Heaton
North Jesmond
Ouseburn
Parklands
South Heaton
South Jesmond
Walker
Walkergate
West Gosforth
2015
electorate
8,308
7,809
7,427
8,670
7,157
7,377
6,959
6,802
7,146
7,600
7,667
7,076
6,930
6,812
6,057
6,555
7,627
5,778
5,721
7,506
6,858
7,220
Forecast
2021
electorate
9,519
8,790
8,299
10,796
7,376
7,727
7,477
8,164
7,614
8,234
8,089
7,346
7,766
7,291
8,767
11,113
7,773
7,289
8,360
8,342
7,295
7,463
Variance (%)
2015
17
10
5
23
1
4
-2
-4
1
7
8
0
-2
-4
-14
-7
8
-18
-19
6
-3
2
2021
14
5
0
29
-12
-7
-10
-2
-9
-1
-3
-12
-7
-13
5
33
-7
-13
0
0
-13
-11
2
Ward
Westerhope
Westgate
Wingrove
Woolsington
Newcastle
Average Electorate per
Councillor
2015
electorate
7,453
5,370
6,373
7,594
183,852
2,357
Forecast
2021
electorate
7,629
10,236
8,497
9,581
216,833
2,780
Variance (%)
2015
5
-24
-10
7
-
2021
-9
23
2
15
-
In summary, the forecast suggests:
 All wards will see an increase in the number of electors over the period, reflecting
the broad base of housing growth in brownfield areas across the city, with almost
all wards planned to see some house building, plus the city-wide impact of
increased elector registration;
 Lowest growth in numbers of electors is expected in those wards with the fewest
opportunities for new housing, alongside the general trend towards fewer adults
per home;
 Greatest growth in those areas of the city where delivery of new homes are likely
to be the greatest; and
 Growth in city centre wards, as a result of the concentration of growth in student
blocks, alongside specific measures to increase voter registration amongst
students (partially reversing the loss of electors from these wards which resulted
from IER).
The rest of this note sets out in more detail the steps undertaken to calculate these
estimates.
Stage 1. Population growth and household formation rates
At the outset of developing the electorate forecast we firstly consider how the
population is projected to change from 2015 to 2021. This provides the foundation to
the forecasting model. The forecast change in the population aged 17+ is informed
by our population growth forecast as reflected in St Chads population projects
underpinning the Plan, which as previously mentioned, were subject of a formal
Examination by an Independent Inspector appointed by the Government.
The growth forecast is based on ONS 2011-based population projection, expertly
modelled and extended by St Chads and adjusted to reflect an expectation of a
reduction in the level of net in-migration of international students (compared with
rapid growth experienced in the period to 2011 and rolled forwards in the ONS
projection) but also a reduction in the projected continuing high level of net outmigration to North Tyneside as a result of the Plan aim to improve the housing ‘offer’
in the City (notably an increase in the supply of mid-market family homes).
The population forecast is aligned to the forecasts of employment growth produced
by Cambridge Ecometrics in that it seeks to balance levels of jobs growth with a
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similar increase in workers living within the city. Importantly, the Inspector endorsed
the Council’s approach to population growth in the context of the ‘widely fluctuating’
nature of the official ‘trend-based’ projections.
Over the six years to 2021, we expect the population aged 17+ to increase by 3.6%
to 240,864.
This population forecast is accompanied by a forecast of households, taking into
account the long-term trend in household formation rates, which over time reduce
the numbers of adults per home. This is the result of factors such as the ageing of
the population, people living longer having survived their spouse, trends in
relationships and smaller families. These trends mean that in areas with little or no
new housing the population can be expected to decline. Nationally, ONS data
demonstrates the average household size has declined from 3.1 persons per
household in 1961 to 2.3 persons per household in 2011. In other words, a 35%
increase in the number of homes was required by 2011 to house the same level
of population as 50 years earlier. This trend is evident in Newcastle and will continue
to and beyond 2021.
Given this evidence, and informed by the St Chads model, our methodology
assumes a 2.13% reduction in average household size over the period (from 2.306
in 2015 to 2.256 in 2021). The effect of this in Newcastle is that the 2015 housing
stock is insufficient to meet 2021 demand, with 835 people no longer accommodated
by its capacity.
The combined pressure of these demands provides the driver of new development
identified in the Plan. These developments and their effects on population
distribution are considered under Stages 2 and 3 of the forecast methodology.
Stage 2. Effect of new build (excluding students)
In this stage of the analysis we develop an estimate of the population likely to be
living in new build dwellings by 2021, and identify where in the city those new homes
are likely to be built. To determine future housing numbers, we have used our
SHLAA, which is updated annually. For the purposes of the Electoral Review the
period the SHLAA covers has been extended to 2021. The SHLAA is a list of
housing sites and includes those that have planning permission, those that are
allocated by the Plan, and sites we are confident will come forward with dwellings
built over the forecast period to 2021. Although there is uncertainty around those
figures, the most recent experience of developers seeking planning permissions is
that they are a sound basis on which to develop the electorate forecast.
Firstly we have considered ordinary residential new-build developments, excluding
the purpose built student accommodation which is assessed separately in Stage 3.
We bring together the anticipated number of new build dwellings with the elements of
population change to estimate the expected number of adults living in new dwellings
across wards in 2021.
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Over the six year period we expect 6,065 new dwellings to be built. We have also
built in an assumption that housing vacancy rates in new build dwellings will be the
same as in existing housing stock in the city (3% vacancy rate).
Stage 3. Effect of new-build student accommodation
We then factor in the effect of new purpose built student accommodation in the city
centre. Our understanding from developers is that purpose built student
accommodation already built is occupied. Our methodology builds in a degree of
vacant bed spaces. We have applied the city vacancy rate of 3% to the student new
build accommodation figures.
In total, we expect 3,824 bed spaces to be available in the new purpose built
accommodation. Our methodology assumes 1 student per bed space. Therefore,
after applying the 3% vacancy rate, we expect 3,709 students to be living in this
accommodation by 2021.
The student population is fluid in its distribution from one year to the next, settling
across wards according to where accommodation is provided. The purpose built
blocks will change the distribution of available accommodation and therefore where
the student population settles each year. Some of this new capacity will cater to an
increase in student population and will have no impact on populations elsewhere.
The remaining capacity will accommodate existing student numbers who would
otherwise have settled in other areas, freeing up housing stock to be backfilled by
non-student population.
We are working on the assumption that the housing stock released by this will be
filled at a ratio of 1.8 adults to every 4 students per household (i.e. for every 4
students that move out of a house 1.8 adults move in).
Our assumptions about student growth are informed by discussions with the
universities about their future growth plans. This has given us confidence that the
combined growth in student numbers over the next six years will be sufficient to
provide enough population to support this approach.
Stage 4. Electoral Registration – general population
The initial impact of IER in Newcastle has been significant in reducing voter
registration in certain areas. Particularly affected were wards where turnover of
population is high and where large numbers of students are present. This was the
result of transitional arrangements under IER and was heavily influenced by changes
to the rules governing student registration.
The transitional impact of IER has continued to adversely effect registration rates
across the city. Whilst an ongoing range of initiatives throughout 2015 rolling
registration had recovered the initial impact by half, the removal of unconfirmed
electors, marking the end of transition, has again heavily impacted upon the city's
electorate.
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With transition to IER now complete, there will be no further instances of mass
removal of electors who have fallen foul of the new rules. The baseline electorate
provided by the December 2015 register represents the low point rendered by IER,
and the ongoing mitigation of its effects will suffer no further impediment to the
recovery of registration rates. Recovery will therefore continue as registration
activities grow over time to be wider reaching and more productive. The 3 main
features at the core of these ongoing activities will be:
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Data mining. Data mining will be conducted in an increasingly robust and
concerted manner. Identifying and securing a wider range and extent of data
will allow more individuals to be targeted by registration activities. Improving
efficiency of the process will increase its influence over registration rates.
Public engagement. Registration activities will be informed by demographic
need and so will become more tailored to the needs of hard to reach and
under registered groups. This will serve to increase registration rates amongst
populations within which they are lowest.
Online registration. The immediacy of electronic self-service is expected to
continue to yield greater numbers of applications.
The full effects of these activities will only become evident over a number of years.
The further investment of time and resources, aided by the end of the IER
transitional period, is expected to take us beyond the point of simply recovering the
system's initial impact and will continue to increase completeness over time. On this
basis, a projection of rising registration rates across the city over the lifetime of the
forecast is deemed to be justified.
We therefore base the forecast on an increase in the registration rate from the
current estimated rate of 79.1% to 90% by 2021. Within this overall estimate, the
registration rate of students is forecast to rise from 21% currently to 50% by 2021
(see Stage 5 below). This approach has been informally tested with the Commission
and considered in relation to rates currently achieved in populations across the
country. These assumptions are a key element of uncertainty within the forecast.
The central forecast has therefore been supplemented with sensitivity analysis to
examine the impact of differential assumptions on individual wards.
The increase amongst the non-student population (equivalent to an increase of
around 6.49% in the registration rate on average) will vary according to the
demographic make-up of different areas. Where registration rates are currently low,
the potential gains through enhanced registration are greater. A low registration rate
reflects a significant presence of traditionally-under registered groups. We know that
areas with a significant black and minority ethnic (BME) population, in which social
housing forms a significant proportion of the housing stock, and the transient private
rental population is relatively high, have a comparatively low registration rate. The
central assumption is that increases in registration rates will be driven by greater
registration of these under-represented groups.
Demographic Targeting of under registered groups
Certain demographic groups are traditionally less disposed to register to vote. For a
variety of reasons, belonging to one of these groups (see Appendix 1, Table 1)
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means an individual is statistically much less likely to take the steps necessary to
ensure they are properly and enduringly registered. The effects of IER have also
been most keenly felt amongst these groups. The groups most affected by under
registration are:
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Black and minority ethnic groups (in the table at appendix 1, BME)
Students (SU)
Attainers (not included in the table below due to their even spread across the
city)
Tenants of private accommodation (PR)
Tenants of social housing (SH)
High concentrations of these groups in an area will inevitably impact upon the
registration rate. The current registration rates across the city, and the extent to
which they are forecast to increase, correlate almost exactly with the presence of
above city average concentrations of these groups.
Whilst the approach we are taking to increase registration provides the impetus and
the tools for increasing the completeness of the register, these under registered
groups provide the focus for how ongoing registration activities will be targeted.
The specific means of ensuring that our activities are brought to bear fully on these
groups will be many and varied, tailored to the particular group or subgroup thereof.
What will be common across all these activities will be the purpose behind them,
which will be to:
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
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Make use of established communication channels in order to deliver public
awareness raising messaging via effective and trusted means, promoting the
importance of registration and dispelling common myths concerning the
subject.
To gain the buy-in and cooperation of organisations whose service users fall
within these groups in order to benefit from the data at their disposal
pertaining to the identity of specific individuals for the purpose of personally
targeted invitations to register.
To identify significant transactions common to a group and seek to build in
data capture for the purposes of electoral registration
Whilst the approach we are taking is expected to have a positive effect upon the
registration of all groups across the city, it is these measures when successfully
delivered amongst groups where the potential gains are highest that will achieve the
results predicted under our electorate forecasting model.
Stage 5. Electoral Registration – students
The size of the student population means that its potential influence on the city's
registration rate is significant. The concentration of this population over relatively few
wards means that this influence could come to bear heavily in a small number of
areas within the city. The potential for significant variations in student registration to
cause electoral inequality is therefore significant, and was the main reason an
Electoral Review was originally triggered.
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We give the issue of improving student registration rates priority. Our commitment to
this is shared by all three of the higher education institutions within the city. Buy-in
from these partners has been gained for the multilateral development of an
electronic system, linked to a compulsory academic process, aimed at gaining
completed individual registrations on a mass basis at the start of each academic
year. A similar system in Sheffield achieved a reported registration rate of 64% in the
IER transitional year of 2014.
Our methodology assumes an eventual student registration rate of 50% by 2021.
The current registration rate within halls of residence, and the best available gauge
of the overall registration rate across the population, is 21%. This current registration
rate, combined with the forecast increase by area under the IER model for
registration, leaves a balance necessary to a reach 50% rate in any given area. This
balance forms the product of our supplemental student registration activities.
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Appendix 1
Table 1. Significant concentrations of under registered groups across the city, with a
‘X’ indicating levels above the average for the city as a whole.
Forecast
registration
Ward
SH
PR
SU BME
increase
%
Ouseburn
X
X
X
X
17.1
Westgate
X
X
X
X
14.1
Wingrove
X
X
X
X
9.8
South Jesmond
X
X
X
8.1
North Jesmond
X
X
7.6
Elswick
X
X
X
6.2
South Heaton
X
X
X
5.6
Byker
X
4.6
Benwell and Scotswood X
2.8
Walker
X
2.5
East Gosforth
X
2.4
Blakelaw
X
X
2.0
Fenham
X
X
1.7
Lemington
1.7
Walkergate
X
1.7
Newburn
X
1.7
Kenton
X
1.6
Fawdon
X
1.5
North Heaton
1.5
Woolsington
X
1.5
Denton
X
1.3
Parklands
X
0.9
West Gosforth
0.7
Castle
0.6
Westerhope
0.4
Dene
X
0.2
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