BESTP
PRAC
Case study
dy series – No.2 – December
D
20
2011
Decision M
Makingg Matrix ur matrix:: Steps to set up you
1. Find out which
h climate drrivers affectt rainfall in yyour area, aand when. 2. Maake a spread
dsheet with columns: • Months • Decisio
ons to be made • Consen
nsus of foreecasts • Southeern Oscillation Index (SOI) • Indian Ocean Dipo
ole (IOD) (trracking the SOI & IOD aare useful in
n SA) ub‐soil moissture, comm
modity pricees, fertilizerr/diesel costts, • Considerations (su
debt le
evel etc) • Decisio
ons made • Outcom
me /attitudee (include eextreme eveents like unseasonal heeat & heavyy rain) 3. Maark the mon
nths when yyou should ttrack driverss (eg IOD from May – N
Nov) 4. Sett up a favourites folderr with web aaddress’ to monitor theese drivers,, and forecaast mo
odels. 5. Mo
onitor severral seasonal climate forrecast modeels every month (the m
more the beetter). • Couple
ed Global Climate Models: • POAMA2 (BOM), JAM
MSTEC (Japan), ECMWF (Europe), N
NCEP (USA),, A) ECPC (USA
• Ensemble models: • APEC (Koreea), UKMO (UK), IRI (USA) 6. Eveery month lo
ook at the latest seaso
onal forecassts and get aa consensuss. 7. Upd
date likely o
outcomes aand tweak d
decisions an
nd plans if necessary. BESTTPRAC Case
C study serries – No.2 – December 20011
De
ecision M
Making M
Matrix template
Mo
onths 20
012 De
ecisions to Consensus be made of forecasts SO
OI (Sou
uthern Oscillation Index) Useful to sshow La Nina and iits developm
ment or demise. IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Good to watch from Junee to November. Considerattions
Decisions we
e made Outcome / Attitude What yo
ou decide to do. What’s the W
ou
utcome? All yyour decisions thro
ough the year eg:  What kind of year will it be?  Should we sow?  How much?  When should we join/lamb? Use the Weatheer Watch Cheat Sh
heet to determine th
he consensus of forecasts. Januaryy Februarry March April May Your other business uch as considerations su
sub‐soil moisturee, commodity pricees, fertilizer/diesel ccosts, debt level etc. June July August September October November December