Impacts of Information and
Communication Technologies on
Environmental Sustainability:
speculations and evidence
5(3257727+(2(&'
)UDQV%HUNKRXWDQG-XOLD+HUWLQ
63586FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\3ROLF\5HVHDUFK
8QLYHUVLW\RI6XVVH[
)DOPHU
%ULJKWRQ%15)
8QLWHG.LQJGRP
0D\
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
SUMMARY
2
I. INTRODUCTION
3
II. SKETCHING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ICTS AND
SUSTAINABILITY
4
III. FIRST-ORDER ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF ICTS
7
III.1 Manufacture
7
III.2 Supply chain
8
III.3 Use
8
III.4 Disposal
9
IV. SECOND-ORDER EFFECTS OF ICTS
9
IV.1 Efficiency gains through ICT use
IV.1.1 Intelligent production processes
IV.1.2 Intelligent design and operation of products and services
IV.1.3 Intelligent distribution and logistics
IV.1.4 Changing seller-buyer relationships
IV.1.5 Work organisation
10
10
10
12
15
16
IV.2 Critical issues
IV.2.1 The problem of ‘incomplete substitution’
IV.2.2 Re-materialisation
16
16
17
V. THIRD ORDER EFFECTS OF ICTS
17
V.1 Structural change and resource use
17
V.2 The rebound effect
18
V.3 Life style changes
19
VI. CONCLUSIONS
19
VII. REFERENCES
21
Summary
7KLVUHSRUWVXPPDULVHVUHFHQWOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG
FRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHW7KUHHPDLQW\SHVRIHIIHFWV
LGHQWLILHGDUH
•
•
•
ILUVWRUGHULPSDFWVGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRIWKHSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7V
UHVRXUFHXVHDQGSROOXWLRQUHODWHGWRWKHSURGXFWLRQRI,&7LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQG
GHYLFHVHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQRI,&7KDUGZDUHHOHFWURQLFZDVWHGLVSRVDO
VHFRQGRUGHULPSDFWVLQGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVUHODWHGWRWKHHIIHFWRI,&7VRQ
WKHVWUXFWXUHRIWKHHFRQRP\SURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVSURGXFWVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ
V\VWHPVWKHPDLQW\SHVRISRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVDUHGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ
JHWWLQJPRUHRXWSXWIRUOHVVUHVRXUFHLQSXWYLUWXDOLVDWLRQWKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
LQIRUPDWLRQJRRGVIRUWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQG¶GHPRELOLVDWLRQ·WKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
FRPPXQLFDWLRQDWDGLVWDQFHIRUWUDYHO
WKLUGRUGHULPSDFWVLQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWPDLQO\WKURXJKWKHVWLPXODWLRQ
RIPRUHFRQVXPSWLRQDQGKLJKHUHFRQRPLFJURZWKE\,&7V¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·DQG
WKURXJKLPSDFWVRQOLIHVW\OHVDQGYDOXHV\VWHPV
7KHUHSRUWFRQFOXGHVWKDW,&7VDUHKDYLQJSURIRXQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVERWK
SRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYH:KLOHWKHUHDUHODUJHRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODQG
UHVRXUFHVJDLQVWKURXJKWKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VPDQ\RIWKHVHRSSRUWXQLWLHVZLOOOHDGWR
LQFUHPHQWDOFKDQJHVRYHUWKHORQJHUWHUPJHQHUDOODERXUFDSLWDODQGUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWV7HFKQRORJLFDODQGRUJDQLVDWLRQDOFKDQJHVHQDEOHGE\WKH
,QWHUQHWDQGRWKHU,&7QHWZRUNVPD\DOVRKDYHSURIRXQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVEXW
HYLGHQFHRQWKHVLJQDQGPDJQLWXGHRIWKHVHHIIHFWVLVVWLOOVSDUVH
7KHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUSROLF\LQSDUWLFXODUWHFKQRORJ\DQGLQQRYDWLRQSROLF\DUHPDQLIROG
,QJHQHUDOZHZRXOGH[SHFWSROLF\WRLQIOXHQFHPRVWHDVLO\ILUVWRUGHUHIIHFWVE\VHWWLQJ
WHFKQRORJ\VWDQGDUGVE\HQFRXUDJLQJHQHUJ\SULFLQJWDNLQJLQWRDFFRXQWHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRVWVDQGE\IDFLOLWDWLQJWKHFUHDWLRQRIUREXVWV\VWHPVIRUUHWULHYLQJDQGUHF\FOLQJ
HTXLSPHQWDWWKH¶HQGRIOLIH·7KHLQIOXHQFHRISROLF\RQVHFRQGDQGWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFWV
LVPRUHGLIILFXOWWRIRUHVHH,QGHHGVRPHFRPPHQWDWRUVDUJXHWKDWSROLF\FDQUHSUHVHQW
DVLJQLILFDQWREVWDFOHWRWKHHIILFLHQWGLIIXVLRQDQGXVHRI,&7VDQGE\LPSOLFDWLRQWKH
UHDOLVDWLRQRISRWHQWLDOHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWV2QWKH¶VXSSO\VLGH·WKHUHLVDUROHIRU
SROLF\LQHQFRXUDJLQJLQQRYDWLRQWKDWSURPLVHUHDOVXEVWLWXWLRQVRILQIRUPDWLRQIRU
UHVRXUFHVDQGPRELOLW\DQGLQVHWWLQJDPELWLRXVORQJWHUPWDUJHWVIRUWKHLUZLGHVSUHDG
DGRSWLRQ2QWKH¶GHPDQGVLGH·WKHUHLVDQLPSRUWDQWUROHIRUJRYHUQPHQWLQVKDSLQJ
WHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQG¶KDUG·WUDQVSRUWXWLOLWLHVEXLOGLQJVXUEDQIRUPLQIUDVWUXFWXUHV
WKDWZLOOGHWHUPLQHZKHWKHURSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUUDGLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\ZLOODULVHIURPWKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7V*RYHUQPHQWDOVRKDVDUROHDVD
¶FRQVXPHU·WKURXJKSXEOLFSURFXUHPHQWRIGHPDWHULDOLVHG¶VROXWLRQV·DQGLQWKHGHOLYHU\
RIJRYHUQPHQWVHUYLFHV,PDJLQDWLYHXVHRI,&7VDOVRDOORZVJRYHUQPHQWVWRDVVRFLDWH
FRQVXPSWLRQZLWKWKHLUWUXHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVDQGWRFUHDWHJUHDWHUWUDQVSDUHQF\
DERXWWKHUHODWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHRIDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRISURYLGLQJDJRRG
RUDVHUYLFH0DQ\RIWKHLQIRUPDWLRQJDSVHQGHPLFWRHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\PDNLQJFDQ
EHUHGXFHGWKURXJKWKHLQWHOOLJHQWXVHRILQWHOOLJHQWV\VWHPV
I. Introduction
7KHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHGHYHORSPHQWGLIIXVLRQDQGXVHRILQIRUPDWLRQDQG
FRPPXQLFDWLRQVWHFKQRORJLHV,&7VDQGWKHEURDGHUVRFLDOJRDORIVXVWDLQDELOLW\LVQRW
ZHOOXQGHUVWRRG/DUJHDQGJURZLQJHIIRUWVKDYHEHHQPDGHWRXQGHUVWDQGWKH
HPHUJHQFHRI,&7VDVD¶JHQHUDOSXUSRVH·WHFKQRORJ\DQGWRDQDO\VHWKHLULPSDFWVRQWKH
HFRQRP\DQGRQVRFLHW\8QWLOYHU\UHFHQWO\WKHVHVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQFRQFHUQHG
SULPDULO\ZLWKDVSHFLILFUDQJHRILPSDFWVDWWULEXWHGWRWKHWHFKQRORJ\FKDQJHVLQZRUN
RUJDQLVDWLRQDQGZRUNHUSURGXFWLYLW\MREFUHDWLRQDQGORVVSURILWDELOLW\RIFRPSDQLHV
DQGLQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHLQWKHHFRQRP\DQGXOWLPDWHO\SURVSHFWVIRU
HFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGQDWLRQDOVHFXULW\7KHULVHRIFRPPXQLFDWLRQQHWZRUNVDQG
HVSHFLDOO\WKHDGYHQWRIWKH:RUOG:LGH:HEKDYHSURGXFHGDIORZHULQJRIUHVHDUFK
FRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHSURFHVVRI¶JOREDOLVDWLRQ·LQDOOLWVIDFHWVWKHUHVKDSLQJRIWKHSROLWLFDO
DQGILVFDODXWKRULW\RIWKHQDWLRQVWDWHTXHVWLRQVRILGHQWLW\JURXSIRUPDWLRQDQGQHZ
IRUPVRIDFWLYLVPSUREOHPVDERXWWKHJRYHUQDQFHRIWKH,QWHUQHWDQGLWVLPSDFWVRQ
GHPRFUDF\WKH¶GLJLWDOGLYLGH·DQGVRRQ$UDQJHRIVFLHQFHDQGWHFKQRORJ\LVVXHVKDYH
DOVREHHQFRQVLGHUHG,&7LPSDFWRQWKHFRQGXFWRIVFLHQWLILFDFWLYLWLHVWKHLPSDFWRI
FRGLILFDWLRQRINQRZOHGJHRQWHFKQRORJLFDOGLIIXVLRQWKHPRQLWRULQJRIFOLPDWHFKDQJH
DQGVRRQ
,PSDFWVRQHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\KDYHEHHQFKDUDFWHULVHGE\DQXPEHURIDXWKRUV
EXWKDYHRQO\YHU\UHFHQWO\EHFRPHWKHVXEMHFWRIV\VWHPDWLFUHVHDUFK3DUWO\WKLVLV
EHFDXVH,&7VLPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDSSHDUWREHLQFRPPHQVXUDWHZLWKWKHLUKXJH
LPSDFWVRQWKHHFRQRP\DQGPRUHJHQHUDOO\RQVRFLHW\&RPSDUHGWRPRUHWUDGLWLRQDO
LQGXVWULHVOLNHHQHUJ\WUDQVSRUWDQGPDQXIDFWXULQJWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQVOLQNHGWR
WKHSURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7VDSSHDUWREHVPDOO7KLVSDSHUZLOOWKHUHIRUHIRFXVIRU
WKHPRVWSDUWRQLQGLUHFWLPSDFWV7KH\DUHWRGRZLWKWKHZD\LQZKLFKKXPDQDFWLYLWLHV
DUHEHLQJFKDQJHGDQGUHRUJDQLVHGDQGZKDWWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVPD\EHIRUWKH
HQYLURQPHQW
5HVHDUFKLQWRWKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\LVDGLIILFXOWDQG
XQFHUWDLQWDVN$OWKRXJKVWDWLVWLFDOVRXUFHVDERXWWKHGLIIXVLRQDQGWKHHFRQRPLF
FRQWULEXWLRQRI,&7VH[LVWHJ2(&'WKH\DUHQDWXUDOO\EHKLQGDIDVWFKDQJLQJ
UHDOLW\0HGLXPDQGORQJWHUPIRUHFDVWVFRQFHUQLQJIRUH[DPSOHWKHQXPEHURI
KRXVHKROGVFRQQHFWHGWRWKH,QWHUQHWRUWKHQXPEHUDQGYDOXHRIUHWDLODQGVXSSO\FKDLQ
HFRPPHUFHYDU\JUHDWO\VRPHWLPHVE\VHYHUDORUGHUVRIPDJQLWXGH5HVHDUFKLQWRWKH
OLNHO\IXWXUHHIIHFWVRIDJURZLQJGLJLWDOHFRQRP\DUHFXUUHQWO\EDVHGRQK\SRWKHWLFDORU
FDVHVWXG\EDVHGDQDO\VLVJHQHUDWLQJUHVXOWVWKDWDUHSUHOLPLQDU\DQGFRQWLQJHQW7KLVLV
SDUWLFXODUO\WUXHIRUWKHOLWHUDWXUHGHDOLQJZLWKPRUHPHGLDWHGDQGORQJWHUPHIIHFWVHJ
WKURXJKVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJH0XFKRIWKHGLVFXVVLRQKHUHLVWKHUHIRUHVSHFXODWLYHDQGZLOO
EHVXEMHFWWRUHYLVLRQDVWKHVWUXFWXUHRIGLJLWDOHFRQRP\FRQWLQXHVWRXQIROGDQGDV
PRUHULJRURXVDFDGHPLFUHVHDUFKLVFRPSOHWHG
)RUH[DPSOHL03,QIRUPDWLRQ,PSDFWV2FWREHULVVXH
KWWSZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHUBBFRQWHQWVKWP-5RPP/HDGEHDWHU+LOW\
DQG5XGG\:LOVGRQ:KLOHPRVWRIWKLVUHVHDUFKIRFXVHVRQHFRPPHUFHLQDQDUURZHU
VHQVHGHILQHGEURDGO\DVHFRQRPLFWUDQVDFWLRQVRYHUWKH,QWHUQHWWKLVSDSHUORRNVDWLPSDFWVIURPWKHXVH
RI,&7VPRUHEURDGO\,WLQFOXGHVWKHXVHRI,&7VLQSURGXFWGHVLJQSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVGLVWULEXWLRQ
DQGORJLVWLFVDVZHOODVVHOOHUEX\HUUHODWLRQVKLSV
II. Sketching the relationship between ICTs and sustainability
(FRQRPLFDOO\,&7VDUHEHOLHYHGWREHWKHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHEHKLQGDPDMRUWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ
LQWKHJOREDOHFRQRP\2(&':KDWDUHWKHLPSOLFDWLRQVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDO
VXVWDLQDELOLW\RIZKDWKDVEHHQWHUPHGWKH¶LQIRUPDWLRQUHYROXWLRQ·"
$WILUVWVLJKWWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDSSHDUWREHH[FOXVLYHO\SRVLWLYHEHFDXVH
¶LQIRUPDWLRQ·LVJHQHUDOO\FRQVLGHUHGWREHTXLFNGLVWLQFWIURPWKHPDWHULDODVSHFWVRIWKH
QDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW2IWHQLQIRUPDWLRQLVWKRXJKWWRVXEVWLWXWHIRURUDWOHDVWLPSURYHWKH
XVHRIHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV7KHUHDUHPDQ\ZKRJRIXUWKHUDQGDUJXHWKDWWKHNQRZOHGJH
HFRQRP\LV¶ZHLJKWOHVV·DQG¶IULFWLRQOHVV·,QDQ2FWREHUVSHHFK$ODQ*UHHQVSDQVDLG
¶«9LUWXDOO\XQLPDJLQDEOHDKDOIFHQWXU\DJRZDVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKFRQFHSWV
DQGLGHDVZRXOGVXEVWLWXWHIRUSK\VLFDOUHVRXUFHVDQGKXPDQEUDZQLQWKH
SURGXFWLRQRIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV,QUDGLRVZHUHVWLOOEHLQJSRZHUHGE\
YDFXXPWXEHV7RGD\WUDQVLVWRUVGHOLYHUIDUKLJKHUTXDOLW\ZLWKDPHUHIUDFWLRQRI
WKHEXON)LEHURSWLFVKDVUHSODFHGKXJHWRQQDJHVRIFRSSHUZLUHDQGDGYDQFHV
LQDUFKLWHFWXUDODQGHQJLQHHULQJGHVLJQKDYHPDGHSRVVLEOHWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRI
EXLOGLQJVZLWKPXFKJUHDWHUIORRUVSDFHEXWVLJQLILFDQWO\OHVVSK\VLFDOPDWHULDO
WKDQWKHEXLOGLQJVHUHFWHGMXVWDIWHU:RUOG:DU,,$FFRUGLQJO\ZKLOHWKHZHLJKWRI
FXUUHQWHFRQRPLFRXWSXWLVSUREDEO\RQO\PRGHVWO\KLJKHUWKDQLWZDVDKDOIFHQWXU\DJRYDOXH
DGGHGDGMXVWHGIRUSULFHFKDQJHKDVULVHQZHOORYHUWKUHHIROG·FLWHGLQ5RPP
&R\OHKDVDUJXHGWKDWWKHGLJLWDOZRUOGLVDERXWDVFORVHWRZHLJKWOHVVDVLVSRVVLEOHDOORZLQJ
¶QHDUO\FRVWOHVVUHSURGXFWLRQ·&R\OH1LFKRODV1HJURSRQWHKDVDUJXHGWKDW¶«WKH
LQIRUPDWLRQVXSHUKLJKZD\LVDERXWWKHJOREDOPRYHPHQWRIZHLJKWOHVVELWVDWWKHVSHHGRI
OLJKW·1HJURSRQWH/HDGEHDWHUWDONVRI¶OLYLQJRQWKLQDLU·,IHFRQRPLFYDOXHLV
LQFUHDVLQJO\JHQHUDWHGE\WKHLQWDQJLEOHDQGWKHZHLJKWOHVVWKHQSHUKDSVSRVWLQGXVWULDO
HFRQRPLHVDUHOLEHUDWLQJWKHPVHOYHVIURPWKHDZNZDUGDQGGLIILFXOWLPSHUDWLYHVRIH[WUDFWLQJ
DQGPDQLSXODWLQJPDWHULDOV¶)ULFWLRQOHVV·UHIHUVWRWKHUHGXFHGWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVIRUH[DPSOH
WRWKHFRQVXPHULQJHWWLQJLQIRUPDWLRQDERXWSURGXFWVDQGSXUFKDVLQJWKHPWKDWDUHHQDEOHG
WKURXJKXVHRI,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWLQEX\LQJ)ULFWLRQLVHTXDWHGZLWKWKHORVVRIHQHUJ\
DQGPDWHULDOVDQGKHQFHDODFNRIIULFWLRQLVVHHQDVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\EHQHILFLDO
0RUHUHFHQWO\DPRUHEDODQFHGSRVLWLRQKDVEHJXQWRHPHUJHWKDWVHHNVWRWHVWVRPHRI
WKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVDQGDVVXPSWLRQV7KLVPD\SDUWO\EHH[SODLQHGE\DJHQHUDOO\PRUH
FDXWLRXVDWWLWXGHWRZDUGVDOODVSHFWVRIWKH¶QHZHFRQRP\·%XWLWLVPDLQO\WKHUHVXOWRI
PRUHV\VWHPDWLFUHVHDUFKLQWRWKHFRPSOH[WZRZD\DQGIX]]\OLQNEHWZHHQLQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJLHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\,&7VDUHSHUYDVLYHLQWKHHFRQRP\WKH\
FDQDIIHFWWKHQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQWLQPDQ\ZD\VDQGDWYDULRXVOHYHOV
7KHGHEDWHKDVDOVREHFRPHPRUHSROLWLFDOO\XUJHQWRYHUWKHSDVWWR\HDUVDV
HOHFWURQLFFRPPHUFHKDVEHHQUHFRJQLVHGDVDSRWHQWLDOO\LPSRUWDQWQHZIHDWXUHRI
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\$Q\GLVFXVVLRQRI,&7VDQGVXVWDLQDELOLW\PXVWWKHUHIRUHLQFOXGHD
GLVFXVVLRQRIHFRPPHUFH
7REULQJVRPHFODULW\WRWKHFODLPVWKDWDUHPDGHLWLVXVHIXOILUVWWRGUDZDGLVWLQFWLRQ
EHWZHHQILUVWVHFRQGDQGWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7VDQGHFRPPHUFHVHH7DEOH
)LUVWRUGHUHIIHFWV
3RVLWLYHLPSDFWV
HQYLURQPHQWDO,&7DSSOLFDWLRQV
1HJDWLYHLPSDFWV
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRI
HJHQYLURQPHQWDOPRQLWRULQJ
6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWV
7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWV
GHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ
VWUXFWXUDOFKDQJH
HJHOHFWURQLFGLUHFWRULHV
OLIHVW\OHFKDQJHV
HJJUHHQFRQVXPHULVP
7DEOH,&7LPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
SURGXFWLRQDQGXVHRI,&7V
HJHOHFWURQLFZDVWH
LQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQ
HJ¶ZKLWHYDQV·LQDGGLWLRQWRSULYDWH
VKRSSLQJWULSV
¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·
HJJURZWKRIORQJGLVWDQFHWUDYHO
)LUVWRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V'LUHFWQHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVVWHPIURPWKH
SURGXFWLRQXVHDQGGLVSRVDORIKDUGZDUHVXFKDVFRPSXWHUVVFUHHQVQHWZRUNFDEOHVHWF
7KH\DUHQRWUDGLFDOO\GLIIHUHQWIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRIPDQ\RWKHUSURGXFWV
EXWSRVHDQXPEHURIVSHFLILFHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPV3RVLWLYHGLUHFWLPSDFWVLQFOXGH
WKHXVHRI,&7VIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOSURWHFWLRQSXUSRVHVHJWKURXJKHOHFWURQLF
PRQLWRULQJRIWR[LFHPLVVLRQVUHPRWHVHQVLQJHOHFWURQLFFRQWUROVJHQHUDOO\LPSURYHG
¶WUDQVSDUHQF\·DERXWWKHXVHRIHQYLURQPHQWDOVHUYLFHVWKHSRWHQWLDOWRGHOLQHDWH
HQYLURQPHQWDOSURSHUW\ULJKWVPRUHFKHDSO\(VW\
6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V6HFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWVDUHH[SHFWHGWREHODUJHO\SRVLWLYH0DQ\
DXWKRUVH[SHFW,&7VWRIDFLOLWDWHDGHFRXSOLQJRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGHQYLURQPHQWDO
GDPDJH7ZRPDLQFDXVHVDUHSXWIRUZDUG)LUVWWKHYDOXHDGGHGJHQHUDWHGE\WKHXVH
RILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\LQWKHHFRQRP\KDVEHHQFKDUDFWHULVHGDVEHLQJPDLQO\
FRQFHUQHGZLWKWKHPDQLSXODWLRQRILGHDVUDWKHUWKDQHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV.HOO\
0RUHWKDQRI86LQYHVWPHQWLQQHZHTXLSPHQWRYHUWKHSDVWGHFDGHKDVEHHQLQ
WKHIRUPRILQIRUPDWLRQGHYLFHVFRPPXQLFDWLRQVFRPSXWHUVID[PDFKLQHVDQGRWKHU
DSSOLDQFHV$QGEHWZHHQDERXWRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKUHVXOWHGIURPWKH,7
EXVLQHVV86'2&,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVFRQWULEXWHWRDVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHLQ
WKHHFRQRP\DZD\IURPHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOVLQWHQVLYHDFWLYLW\DQGWRZDUGVLQIRUPDWLRQ
LQWHQVLYHDFWLYLWLHV7KHVHLQYHVWPHQWDQGVWUXFWXUDOHIIHFWVRQWKHHFRQRP\DUHFOHDUO\
RIPDMRUVLJQLILFDQFHIRUWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHLQDJJUHJDWHHYHQLIPHDVXULQJ
WKHVHHIIHFWVKDVSURYHQHOXVLYH
6HFRQGDQGSHUKDSVPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\LQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\LVFKDQJLQJWKHZD\LQ
ZKLFKYLUWXDOO\HYHU\SURGXFWDQGVHUYLFHLQWKHHFRQRP\LVGHVLJQHGSURGXFHG
GLVWULEXWHGDQGRSHUDWHG7KHHFRQRP\LVWKHUHIRUHVHHQDVJURZLQJQRWWKURXJKWKH
DGGLWLRQRIPRUHUHVRXUFHVEXWE\WKHPRUHLQWHOOLJHQWXVHRIUHVRXUFHVWRSURGXFH
JUHDWHUYDOXH,QGHHGHQWLUHO\LQWDQJLEOHDVVHWVDUHLQPDQ\LQGXVWULHVFULWLFDO
FRPSRQHQWVRIWKHYDOXHWKH\FUHDWH7KHUHLVVWURQJHYLGHQFHWKDWLQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJLHVKDYHUDLVHGODERXUSURGXFWLYLW\'DYLG6FKUH\HUEXWVKDUS
LQFUHDVHVLQWKHFDSLWDODQGUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\DUHDOVRSURSRVHG6XFKHIILFLHQFLHVDUH
EHLQJDFKLHYHGWKURXJKFKDQJHVDIIHFWLQJDUDQJHRIDFWLYLWLHV
• LQWHOOLJHQWSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVWKURXJKFDUHIXOFRPSXWHUDLGHGGHVLJQRISURGXFWLRQ
IDFLOLWLHVDQGSUHFLVHFRQWURORIRSHUDWLRQVGXULQJSURGXFWLRQPDGHSRVVLEOHE\
H[WHQVLYHVHQVRUVDQGDXWRPDWHGFRQWUROV
• LQWHOOLJHQWGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRISURGXFWVHQDEOHGE\FRPSXWHUDLGHGVLPXODWLRQVRI
SURGXFWSHUIRUPDQFHUHVXOWLQ¶OLJKWHU·SURGXFWVWKDWXVHOHVVPDWHULDOWRPDNH
SURGXFWVWKDWRSHUDWHPRUHHIILFLHQWO\HIILFLHQWVHQVRUVDQGFRQWUROVHQVXUH
VHUYLFHVIXQFWLRQVDUHGHOLYHUHGHIILFLHQWO\ZKHQDQGZKHUHWKH\DUHUHTXLUHG
• UHRUJDQLVDWLRQRIVXSSO\FKDLQVDQGEXVLQHVVRUJDQLVDWLRQHFRPPHUFHOHDGVWRWKHFORVXUHRI
UHWDLORXWOHWVPRUHHIILFLHQWLQYHQWRU\DQGVXSSO\FKDLQPDQDJHPHQWWKHULVHRI
¶WHOHZRUNLQJ·
• LQWHOOLJHQWORJLVWLFVDQGGLVWULEXWLRQXVLQJFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQGFRPSXWHUEDVHG
PDQDJHPHQWDQGWUDFNLQJV\VWHPVLPSURYHVERWKWKHIOH[LELOLW\MXVWLQWLPHDQG
HIILFLHQF\RIGLVWULEXWLRQV\VWHPV
• WKHSURFHVVRI¶HPDWHUDOLVDWLRQ·WKHVXEVWLWXWLRQRIWDQJLEOHJRRGVIRULQWDQJLEOHVHUYLFHV
IRULQVWDQFHWKHSXUFKDVHRIVRIWZDUHRYHUWKH,QWHUQHWGLUHFWO\UDWKHUWKDQRQDGLVN
WKHGHYHORSPHQWRI¶HOHFWURQLFSDSHU·
• QHWZRUNLQJHIIHFWVIDFLOLWDWHGE\GLIIXVLRQRIFRGLILHGLQIRUPDWLRQWKHXVHRIFRPSXWHUVDQG
GLJLWDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQVDQGQHWZRUNVPD\IDFLOLWDWHPRUHUDSLGFRGLILFDWLRQDQG
URXWLQLVDWLRQRIPDQ\HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVEULQJLQJLQWHJUDWLRQDQGHIILFLHQF\JDLQV
ZLWKFRQVHTXHQWHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVDVZHOO
%XWWKLVLQYHQWRU\RISRWHQWLDOSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVLVPDWFKHGE\XQFHUWDLQW\DERXWZKHWKHU
WKH\ZLOOEHUHDOLVHG*RRGHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHIURPZKLFKJHQHUDOLVDEOHOHVVRQVFDQEH
GUDZQLVVSDUVH5HVHDUFKRQWKH¶SURGXFWLYLW\SDUDGR[·WKHORQJVWDQGLQJGHEDWHDERXW
WKHDEVHQFHRIHYLGHQFHRIDUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQODERXUSURGXFWLYLW\DQGLQYHVWPHQWLQ
,&7VLVUHSHDWHGLQWKHSUREOHPVIDFHGE\DQDO\VWVLQGUDZLQJVWURQJLQIHUHQFHVDERXW
WKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\:KDWHYLGHQFHWKDW
GRHVH[LVWVHHPVWRFRQIRXQGDQRSWLPLVWLFUHDGLQJ
• UHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQVDUHVORZ,&7VKDYHEHFRPHLQWHJUDWHGLQWRSURGXFWLRQ
SURFHVVHVDQGQHZSURGXFWVRYHUDORQJSHULRGRYHU\HDUV(YLGHQFHLQPRVW
VHFWRUVLVWKDWUHVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVWHQGWREHVORZDQGRQO\D
SURSRUWLRQFDQEHH[SODLQHGE\WKHGLIIXVLRQRI,&7V'HPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLVDORQJ
VWDQGLQJKLVWRULFDOWUHQG
• WKHVFRSHIRUHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQPD\EHOLPLWHG7KHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI¶E\WHVIRUELWV·PD\LQ
VRPHFDVHVEHFRPSOHWH03HERRNVEXWWKHQXPEHURIJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVZKHUH
WKLVFDQEHDFKLHYHGPD\EHOLPLWHG)RUPRVWJRRGV,7LVLQWHJUDWHGLQWKHGHOLYHU\
RIDJRRGRUDVHUYLFHEXWLWGRHVQRWVXEVWLWXWHIRULW,QGHHGWKHXVHRIHOHFWURQLFV
PD\OHDGWRJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHXVHRIDSURGXFWWKH
UDSLGGLIIXVLRQRIEDWWHULHVWRSRZHULQWHOOLJHQWIXQFWLRQVLQFRQVXPHUJRRGVLVDQ
H[DPSOH
• LQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQV0DQ\RIWKHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVWKDWDUH,&7RUZHEHQDEOHGZLOO
FRPH¶LQDGGLWLRQWR·H[LVWLQJJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVHVSHFLDOO\GXULQJDQLQLWLDOWUDQVLWLRQ
SKDVH
• 7KHLQWHUUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHYLUWXDODQGWKHPDWHULDOHFRQRP\7KHYLUWXDOHFRQRP\LV
LQWLPDWHO\HPEHGGHGLQWKHUHDOPDWHULDOHFRQRP\*URZWKLQWKHYLUWXDOHFRQRP\LV
OLNHO\WROHDGWRFKDQJHDQGJURZWKLQWKHPDWHULDOHFRQRP\)RULQVWDQFHH
FRPPHUFHLVOLNHO\WRGHSHQGRQWKHHYROXWLRQRIIDVWHUPRUHIOH[LEOHWUDQVSRUW
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHVZLWKJUHDWHUFDSDFLW\
7KHPRVWLPSRUWDQWQHJDWLYHVHFRQGRUGHUHIIHFWFRXOGEHWKHLQFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQRI
H[LVWLQJVWUXFWXUHVDQGDFWLYLWLHVOHDGLQJWRPRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJH7KHFDVHRIWKH
¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·FDQVHUYHDVDQH[DPSOH7KHXVHRIFRPSXWHUVLQEXVLQHVV
DGPLQLVWUDWLRQGLGQRWUHSODFHFRQYHQWLRQDOSDSHUZRUNEXWVXSSOHPHQWHGLWDQGWKH
SURPLVHRIDQHQYLURQPHQWDOO\IULHQGO\¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·GLGQRWPDWHULDOLVH6LPLODUO\
QHZORJLVWLFV\VWHPVIRUUHWDLOHFRPPHUFHFRXOGUHVXOWLQDGGLWLRQDOWUDQVSRUWLIWKH\DUH
QRWLQWHJUDWHGZLWKH[LVWLQJV\VWHPVRULIFRQVXPHUVGRQRWVLJQLILFDQWO\UHGXFHWKH
QXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVKRSSLQJWULSV
7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVRI,&7V7KLUGRUGHUHIIHFWVUHODWHWRIHHGEDFNSURFHVVHVWKDWFDQKDYH
FRXQWHULQWXLWLYHRXWFRPHV7KH\DUHSRWHQWLDOO\PRVWSURIRXQGHIIHFWVEXWDOVRGLIILFXOW
WRDVVHVV$ZHOONQRZQIHHGEDFNPHFKDQLVPLVWKHVRFDOOHG¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·RIWHQ
REVHUYHGLQWKHWUDQVSRUWDQGHQHUJ\VHFWRU,WRFFXUVZKHQHIILFLHQF\JDLQVGLUHFWO\RU
LQGLUHFWO\VWLPXODWHQHZGHPDQGZKLFKEDODQFHRUHYHQRYHUFRPSHQVDWHIRUSRVLWLYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV6FHSWLFVIHDUWKDWWKHHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVWLPXODWHGE\,&7V
FRXOGRIIVHWWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVGHVFULEHGDERYH:KHWKHUWKHGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRI
WKHHFRQRP\FDQNHHSXSZLWKWKHLQFUHDVHGUDWHRI*'3JURZWKVWLPXODWHGE\WKH
ZLGHVSUHDGGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VGHSHQGVPDLQO\RQWKHFROOHFWLYHFKRLFHVRIFRQVXPHUV
:LOOWKHPRQH\DQGWLPHIUHHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRI,&7VEHVSHQWLQWKHFRQVXPSWLRQRI
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\GDPDJLQJJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHVRUWKURXJKGHPDQGIRUOHVVWDQJLEOH
VHUYLFHV"$QHFGRWDOHYLGHQFHVRIDUVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUHERXQGHIIHFWLVDUHDOWKUHDWWR
LQFUHPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\JDLQV)RUH[DPSOHWKHUHVHHPVWREHDSRVLWLYHFRUUHODWLRQ
EHWZHHQWKHXVHRIHPDLODQGEXVLQHVVWUDYHORQHVSXUULQJWKHRWKHU7HOOLQJDVLPLODU
VWRU\LVWKHREVHUYDWLRQWKDWDIWHUVRIWZDUHWKHVHFRQGODUJHVWHFRPPHUFHPDUNHWLVRQ
OLQHWLFNHWLQJIRUWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFHV$SURFHVVRIVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOJOREDOLVDWLRQFRXOG
FRQVWLWXWHDQRWKHUWKLUGRUGHUHIIHFW,IJOREDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVVDWHOOLWH
WHOHYLVLRQ,QWHUQHWHPDLOEULQJWRJHWKHUGLIIHUHQWFXOWXUHVWKLVLVOLNHO\WRUHVXOWLQPRUH
PDWHULDOH[FKDQJHVDVZHOOHVSHFLDOO\WKURXJKWUDGHDQGORQJGLVWDQFHWUDYHO
III. First-order environmental effects of ICTs
7KHPDLQLPPHGLDWHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDUHSUHGRPLQDQWO\UHODWHGWRWKH
IROORZLQJIRXUIDFWRUV
•
•
•
•
PDQXIDFWXUHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
WKHWUDQVSRUWRIFRPSRQHQWVDQGSURGXFWV
XVHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
GLVSRVDORI,&7HTXLSPHQW
2WKHUOHVVVLJQLILFDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVDUHUHODWHGWRSDFNDJLQJ
III.1 Manufacture
&XUUHQW,&7V\VWHPVUHO\RQDYDULHW\RIGLIIHUHQWSURGXFWVZLWKKHWHURJHQHRXV
HQYLURQPHQWDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFV7KHVHLQFOXGHSURGXFWJURXSVVXFKDVSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUV
QHWVHUYHUVPRELOHSKRQHVFDEOHVVDWHOOLWHVSHULSKHUDOGHYLFHVVFUHHQVSULQWHUV
VFDQQHUVHWFHWF7KHVHFWRULVVWLOOH[SDQGLQJDQGQRZUHSUHVHQWVDVLJQLILFDQWSDUWRI
WKH*'3LQPRVWLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHV,Q2(&'FRXQWULHVSURGXFHG,&7
JRRGVZRUWKPRUHWKDQELOOLRQ86'2(&'
0RVWSURGXFWVFRQVLVWRIDODUJHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWFRPSRQHQWVHJPLFURFKLSV
VHPLFRQGXFWRUVSULQWHGZLULQJERDUGVFDWKRGHUD\WXEHVDQGEDWWHULHV7KH
PDQXIDFWXUHRIPDQ\RIWKHVHFRPSRQHQWVKDVLPSRUWDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV7KH
SURGXFWLRQRIVHPLFRQGXFWRUVIRUH[DPSOHFDXVHVVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVRIDLUHPLVVLRQV
DFLGIXPHVYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVDQGGRSLQJJDVHVZDWHUHPLVVLRQVVROYHQWV
FOHDQLQJVROXWLRQVDFLGVPHWDOVDQGZDVWHVVLOLFRQVROYHQWV(3$7KH
SURGXFWLRQRIRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVLVHTXDOO\DPDWWHURIHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQFHUQ7KHXVH
RISURFHVVFRQWUROVDQGQHZPDWHULDOVKRZHYHUKDVUHGXFHGWKHVFDOHRIWKHSUREOHP
)RUH[DPSOHWR[LFVROYHQWVRQFHXVHGWRFOHDQFLUFXLWERDUGVKDYHODUJHO\EHHQ
HOLPLQDWHGE\TXDOLW\FRQWUROSURFHVVHV2YHUDOOWKHPDQXIDFWXUHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW
UHVXOWVLQHPLVVLRQVRIDFLGVPHWDOVYRODWLOHRUJDQLFFRPSRXQGVFKORULQDWHGVROYHQWV
DQGRWKHUVXEVWDQFHV,WLVHQHUJ\LQWHQVLYHDQGXVHVODUJHDPRXQWVRIZDWHUIRUFRROLQJ
DQGULQVLQJ0DWWKHZVDOVRVKRZVWKDWDFURVVDYDULHW\RIGLPHQVLRQVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO
SHUIRUPDQFHZDVWHHQHUJ\JUHHQKRXVHJDVHPLVVLRQVFRPSXWHUPDQXIDFWXUHLV
FUHDWLQJJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQV0DWWKHZV:LWKUHJDUGWRZDVWHLWKDV
EHHQIRXQGWKDWRIWKHPDWHULDOXVHGLQ3&SURGXFWLRQJRHVLQWRWKHZDVWHVWUHDP
DQGRQO\EHFRPHVSDUWRIWKHSURGXFW+LOW\DQG5XGG\
III.2 Supply chain
,&7VDUHSURGXFHGWKURXJKJOREDOVXSSO\FKDLQV$W\SLFDOSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUFRQWDLQV
FRPSRQHQWVVRXUFHGIURPDURXQGWKHZRUOGDQGW\SLFDOO\WUDQVSRUWHGE\DLU
7KHFRPSOH[LW\DQGVFDOHRIWKHJOREDOHOHFWURQLFVVHFWRUPHDQVWKDWWKHDJJUHJDWH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIWKHVHVXSSO\FKDLQVDUHODUJH(FRPPHUFHPD\KDYHWKH
HIIHFWERWKRI¶VKULQNLQJ·WKHVXSSO\FKDLQE\HQDEOLQJJUHDWHUFRQWURODQGUHGXFLQJWKH
QXPEHURIVWHSVWKXVEULQJLQJHQYLURQPHQWDOJDLQVEXWLWPD\DOVRKDYHWKHRSSRVLWH
HIIHFWDOORZLQJVXSSO\FKDLQVWREHFRPHPRUH¶JOREDOLVHG·DQGVHJPHQWHG
III.3 Use
,&7GHYLFHVW\SLFDOO\XVHDODUJHDPRXQWRIHOHFWULFLW\$W\SLFDOPHGLXPVL]HG3&
FRQVXPHVDERXW:SHUKRXU%XWUHVLGHQWLDOHQHUJ\XVHLVDOVRJURZLQJWKURXJKWKH
LQWHJUDWLRQRI,&7VLQWRDOOSURGXFWVDQGHYHQFRPPRGLWLHV7KHVHLQFOXGHDGYDQFHG
WHOHYLVLRQDQGDXGLRHTXLSPHQWPRELOHSKRQHVSOD\VWDWLRQVKDQGKHOGSHUVRQDOGLJLWDO
DVVLVWDQWVDQGPDQ\RWKHULQIRUPDWLRQDSSOLDQFHV6HWWRSER[HVLQWHJUDWHGUHFHLYHU
GHFRGHUVDUHSURMHFWHGWRDGGVRPH*:KRISRZHUGHPDQGLQWKH8.E\
DQGPLOOLRQWRQQHVRIFDUERQHPLVVLRQV6WDQGE\ORVVHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKHOHFWURQLF
FRQVXPHUJRRGVLQWKHKRPHDUHDQRWKHUPDMRUVRXUFHRISRZHUXVH7KHVHGHYLFHV
SURYLGHLQVWDQWRQFDSDELOLW\DQGDFFRXQWIRUSHUFHQWRIUHVLGHQWLDOHQHUJ\XVH
,($
&RPSXWHUVLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDQGRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQGHYLFHVDUHDOVRWKHODUJHVW
VRXUFHRIJURZWKLQHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLQFRPPHUFLDOEXLOGLQJV8QOLNHSULYDWHO\RZQHG
SHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVPDQ\SURIHVVLRQDOZRUNVWDWLRQVDQGQHWZRUNVHUYHUVWHQGWRRSHUDWH
RQDKRXUEDVLV7KHVFDOHRIWKHSUREOHPZDVUHYHDOHGODVW\HDUZKHQWKH
FRQVWUXFWLRQRIYDVW´VHUYHUIDUPVµ³ZDUHKRXVHVIXOORIFRPSXWHUVDQGWKHLUDWWHQGDQW
FRROLQJV\VWHPV³KDVFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHRYHUORDGLQJRIWKHHOHFWULFDOSRZHUQHWZRUNWKDW
KDVFDXVHGEURZQRXWVLQ6LOLFRQ9DOOH\(FRQRPLVW,QFRPSDULVRQWKHHQHUJ\
XVHRIQHWZRUNVVHHPVWREHUHODWLYHO\VPDOODOWKRXJKWKLVLVDPDWWHURIGHEDWHLQWKH
OLWHUDWXUH
7KHUHDUHQXPHURXVDWWHPSWVWRUHGXFHWKHHOHFWULFLW\XVHRI,&7HTXLSPHQW3&VDQG
HVSHFLDOO\ODSWRSVRIWHQKDYHDGYDQFHGSRZHUPDQDJHPHQWV\VWHPVWKDWUHGXFHWKH
HOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQE\LQWURGXFLQJYDULRXV¶ORZSRZHUPRGHV·DIWHUFHUWDLQWLPHRI
LQDFWLYLW\+RZHYHULQFUHDVLQJSHUIRUPDQFHDQGPRUHLPSRUWDQWO\ODUJHUVFUHHQVKDYH
LQWKHSDVWEHHQEDODQFHGRIIRURYHUFRPSHQVDWHGWKHVHHIILFLHQF\JDLQV
$UHFHQWVWXG\HVWLPDWHGWKDWWKHSURGXFWLRQRID3&JHQHUDWHGNJRIJUHHQKRXVHJDVHVDQGNJRI
WRWDOZDVWH$WODQWLF&RQVXOWLQJ
ZZZPWSURJFRP
III.4 Disposal
$FFRUGLQJWR0RRUH·V/DZWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRI,&7GRXEOHVHYHU\PRQWKV7KLV
REVHUYDWLRQKDVVKRZQWREHUHODWLYHO\DFFXUDWHQRWRQO\ZLWKUHJDUGWRSURFHVVRUVSHHG
EXWDOVRPHPRU\FDSDFLW\DQGGDWDWUDQVPLVVLRQVSHHG+LOW\DQG5XGG\
([WUHPHO\UDSLGLQQRYDWLRQF\FOHVKDYHOHGWRDKLJKWXUQRYHURIKDUGZDUHDQGVRIWZDUH
$VDUHVXOWWKHIDVWLQFUHDVLQJVWUHDPRIHOHFWULFDODQGHOHFWURQLFZDVWHDWSUHVHQWRI
PXQLFLSDOZDVWHLQWKH(8KDVDSSHDUHGDVDQLPSRUWDQWLVVXHRQWKHHQYLURQPHQWDO
SROLF\DJHQGD
7KHPDLQDUHDRIFRQFHUQIRUGLVSRVDOLVWKHPHWDOFRQWHQWRIHOHFWURQLFZDVWH,&7
GHYLFHVW\SLFDOO\FRQWDLQVLJQLILFDQWDPRXQWVRIFRSSHUOHDGDQGPHUFXU\&XUUHQW
SURGXFWGHVLJQGRHVQRWDOORZWKHVHSDUDWLRQDQGUHF\FOLQJRIWKHVHPHWDOVZLWKRXW
IXUWKHUWUHDWPHQW$QXPEHURIRWKHUPDWHULDOVVXFKDVIODPHUHWDUGDQWVDQGSODVWLF
VRIWHQHUVDUHDOVRDFDXVHHQYLURQPHQWDOULVNVYDQ'UXQHQDQG2OVWKRRUQ$W
SUHVHQWRQO\DVPDOOPLQRULW\RI,&7KDUGZDUHLVUHF\FOHG,QFUHDVLQJWKHUDWHVRI
UHF\FOLQJDQGUHFRYHU\LVRQHRIWKHPDLQDLPVRIDQHZ(8GLUHFWLYH&20
SURSRVHGE\WKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ7KHSURSRVHGGLUHFWLYHZRXOGDOVRUHVWULFWWKH
XVHRIFHUWDLQKD]DUGRXVVXEVWDQFHVVXFKDVEURPLQDWHGIODPHUHWDUGDQWVLQQHZ
HTXLSPHQW
$OWKRXJKLPSRUWDQWGDWDJDSVDQGWKHIDVWFKDQJLQJWHFKQRORJ\GRQRWDOORZDUHOLDEOH
RYHUDOODVVHVVPHQWRIWKHVHHIIHFWVLWLWLVZLGHO\UHFRJQLVHGWKDWSURGXFWLRQXVHDQG
GLVSRVDORI,&7VKDYHEHFRPHDVHULRXVHQYLURQPHQWDOSROLF\LVVXH0DWWKHZVUHSRUWV
WKDWLQWKH86VRPHRIPXQLFLSDOZDVWHLVQRZDFFRXQWHGIRUE\¶ZDVWHIURP
HOHFWULFDODQGHOHFWURQLFHTXLSPHQW·:(((DQGWKDWWKLVSURSRUWLRQLVVHWWRJURZ
0DWWKHZV0XFKRIWKLVPDWHULDOFRXOGEHHFRQRPLFDOO\UHF\FOHGLIHIIHFWLYH
FROOHFWLRQDQGSURFHVVLQJV\VWHPVZHUHLQSODFH7KHVHGLUHFWHIIHFWVPD\KRZHYHUEH
OHVVVLJQLILFDQWWKDQWKHSRWHQWLDOO\PXFKZLGHUDQGGHHSHULQGLUHFWHIIHFWVRILQIRUPDWLRQ
DQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\
IV. Second-order effects of ICTs
,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHVHHQWRSURYLGHDODUJHSRWHQWLDOWRUHGXFHWKHXVHRI
HQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOV7KH\SOD\DNH\UROHLQWKHGHEDWHVDERXWUHVRXUFHHIILFLHQF\RIWHQ
KHOGXQGHUWKHODEHO¶)DFWRU)DFWRU·7KHSURSRQHQWVRIWKLVFRQFHSWFODLPWKDW
DGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHVFDQLPSURYHWKHHFRHIILFLHQF\RIPDQ\SURGXFWVDQGSURFHVVHV
E\VHYHUDOKXQGUHGSHUFHQWDOORZLQJDGHFRXSOLQJRIWKHHFRQRPLFJURZWKFXUYHDQG
WKHHQYLURQPHQWDOGDPDJHFXUYHYRQ:HL]VlFNHUHWDO$OWKRXJKRWKHU
WHFKQRORJLHVDQGVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVDUHDOVRFRQVLGHUHGWREHLPSRUWDQWKLJKHVW
H[SHFWDWLRQVDUHSODFHGRQGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQWKURXJKHOHFWURQLFFRPPXQLFDWLRQ
6LJQLILFDQWHYLGHQFHWRVXSSRUWWKLVDUJXPHQWKDVEHHQSURGXFHGLQDVWXG\LQWRWKH
LPSDFWVRIWKH86,QWHUQHWHFRQRP\RQJOREDOZDUPLQJ5RPP5RPPDUJXHV
WKDWLQDQGDJJUHJDWHHQHUJ\SURGXFWLYLW\LQWKH86HFRQRP\LPSURYHGE\
PRUHWKDQSHUFHQWUHYHUVLQJDWUHQGRIVORZGHFOLQHVLQWKHSUHYLRXVGHFDGH6LPLODUO\
.HOO\DUJXHVWKDWZKLOH86JURVVGRPHVWLFSURGXFWJUHZE\SHUFHQWEHWZHHQ
DQGHQHUJ\XVHJUHZE\OHVVWKDQRQHSHUFHQW7KLVLVVHHQDVDEUHDNZLWK
SDVWWUHQGVWKDWFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHILUVWHYLGHQFHRIZLGHVSUHDGSRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDO
LPSDFWVRI,&7V
IV.1 Efficiency gains through ICT use
7KHGHYHORSPHQWSURGXFWLRQDQGGLVWULEXWLRQRISURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVLQYROYHKLJKO\
FRPSOH[SURFHVVHVLQZKLFKLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHSOD\LQJDQLQFUHDVLQJO\
LPSRUWDQWSDUW,&7VDUHXVHGLQYDULRXVZD\VWRRSWLPLVHWKHLQSXWRIODERXUFDSLWDODQG
QDWXUDOUHVRXUFHV$OWKRXJKGULYHQE\WKHQHHGWRUHGXFHFRVWVWKHRSWLPLVDWLRQRI
SURFHVVHVWKURXJK,&7VKDVE\DQGODUJHEHQHILWHGWKHHQYLURQPHQW7KLVLVQRWRQO\
EHFDXVHPDQ\HQYLURQPHQWDOUHVRXUFHVQHHGWREHSDLGIRUPRVWLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHV
KDYHFKDUJHVIRUZDWHUZDVWHZDWHUZDVWHHOHFWULFLW\EXWDOVREHFDXVHHIILFLHQW
SURFHVVHVWHQGWREHOHVVSROOXWLQJ7KHSRVLWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWVRI,&7VDIIHFW
PDQ\GLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIWKHSURGXFWLRQSURFHVV
IV.1.1 Intelligent production processes
,&7VDOORZWKHVLPXODWLRQRIFRPSOH[SURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVLQRUGHUWRWHVWDQGUHYLHZ
FRVWVPDWHULDOXVHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOHPLVVLRQVRIGHVLJQRSWLRQVEHIRUHV\VWHPVDUH
SXUFKDVHG2QFHLQRSHUDWLRQORZFRVWVHQVRUVWKURXJKRXWDSODQWFRXSOHGZLWK
FRPPXQLFDWLRQQHWZRUNVDQGFRPSXWHUDVVLVWHGFRQWUROVFDQHQVXUHHIILFLHQWDQG
IOH[LEOHRSHUDWLRQ0RGHUQSURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVFDQKDYHWHQVRIWKRXVDQGVRILQGLYLGXDO
PLFURSURFHVVRUVHPEHGGHGLQWKHPFRQWUROOLQJYDOYHVPHDVXULQJWHPSHUDWXUHVVHQVLQJ
WKHFRORXURIIOXLGVDQGSHUIRUPLQJRWKHUWDVNV.HOO\7KHVHGHYLFHVDUH
LQFUHDVLQJO\QHWZRUNHGWRJHWKHULPSURYLQJTXDOLW\VDIHW\DQGUHGXFLQJZDVWH7RGD\XS
WRRIWKHYDOXHRIDQHZPDQXIDFWXULQJSURFHVVLQWKHSXOSDQGSDSHULQGXVWU\IRU
LQVWDQFHLVDFFRXQWHGIRUE\FRQWUROV\VWHPV3UHFLVHHOHFWURQLFFRQWUROLVHVVHQWLDOIRU
PLQLPLVLQJHPLVVLRQV,PSURYHGFRQWUROVPHDQIRUH[DPSOHWKDWPDWHULDOLVQRWZDVWHG
EHFDXVHDFKHPLFDOSURFHVVLVQRWFRPSOHWHGRUEHFDXVHHUURUVJRXQGHWHFWHGSURGXFLQJ
EDWFKHVRIXQXVDEOHSURGXFW:DVWHLVXVXDOO\DQLQGLFDWRURILQHIILFLHQF\DQGSRRU
SURFHVVGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQ5HVRXUFHSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVRIWKLVW\SHKDYH
EHHQDFKLHYHGFRQVLVWHQWO\LQLQGXVWU\VLQFHFRPSXWHUVZHUHILUVWLQWURGXFHGLQWR
PDQXIDFWXULQJRYHU\HDUVDJR,QWKLVVHQVHWKH\DUHQRWQHZDWDOODQGKLVWRULFDO
WUHQGVVXJJHVWWKDWWKH\OHDGWRSURGXFWLYLW\LPSURYHPHQWVRISHUFHQWSHUDQQXP
%HUNKRXWHWDO
IV.1.2 Intelligent design and operation of products and services
%HWWHUGHVLJQ
7KHXVHRIGHVLJQVRIWZDUHDQGVLPXODWLRQWRROVOHDGVWRDUHGXFWLRQLQZDVWHLQ
SURGXFWLRQDQGRSHUDWLRQJHQHUDWHVSURGXFWVWKDWDUHPRUH¶ILWIRUXVH·DQGOHVV
ZDVWHIXODQGSURGXFWVWKDWHPERG\PRUHLQQRYDWLRQLQFOXGLQJLQQRYDWLRQVWKDWDUH
HQYLURQPHQWDOO\EHQHILFLDO&RPSXWHU$LGHG'HVLJQ&$'KDVEHHQDIHDWXUHRIGHVLJQ
IRUSURGXFWVDQGSURFHVVHVIRUVRPH\HDUVDQGLWLVE\QRZSHUYDVLYH&RQFHSWVVXFK
DV¶GHVLJQIRUWKHHQYLURQPHQW·DQG¶GHVLJQIRUUHF\FOLQJ·FDQEHLQWHJUDWHGPRUHUHDGLO\
LQWRLQQRYDWLRQSURFHVVHVXVLQJWKHVHGHVLJQDQGVLPXODWLRQWRROV6SHFLILFHIIHFWVDUH
GLIILFXOWWRPHDVXUHDQGWKHUHODWLYHVLJQLILFDQFHRIGHVLJQVRIWZDUHLVGLIILFXOWWR
GLVHQWDQJOHIURPRWKHUGHYHORSPHQWVVXFKDVDGYDQFHVLQQHZPDWHULDOVDQGPHWDOOXUJ\
:HOOZRUQH[DPSOHVRIWKLVGHVLJQGULYHQGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLQFOXGHUHGXFWLRQVLQWKH
ZHLJKWRIGULQNVFDQV'ULQNVFDQVWRGD\XVHVRPHSHUFHQWOHVVDOXPLQLXPWKDQWKH\
GLGLQ&0$ZKLOHUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHZHLJKWRIVWHHOFDQVKDYHEHHQHTXDOO\
GUDPDWLF6LPLODUO\LWKDVEHHQHVWLPDWHGWKDWWKH6HDUVWRZHULQ&KLFDJRFRXOGEHEXLOW
WRGD\ZLWKSHUFHQWOHVVVWHHOWKDQLWZDVLQ$,6,2WKHUH[DPSOHVLQFOXGH
EHWWHUGHVLJQRIDLUFUDIWHQJLQHVDQGDLUIUDPHVWKDWFDQSURYLGHIXHOVDYLQJVE\
DQGVDYLQJVE\
&RQWUROVLQSURGXFWV
0DQ\FRPSOH[SURGXFWVFDUVFRQVXPHUGXUDEOHVFRQWDLQPLFURSURFHVVRUFRQWUROVWKDW
HQDEOHWKHPWRUHVSRQGWRFKDQJLQJFRQGLWLRQVRISHUIRUPDQFHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQGLWLRQV(PEHGGHGFRQWUROVLPSURYHWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\RIWKHSURGXFWEXWDOVR
LQIOXHQFHWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFH$OOFRQVXPHUJRRGVDQGLQIXWXUHDOVROHVV
FRPSOH[SURGXFWVOLNHZLQGRZVHPERG\PLFURSURFHVVRUVWRFRQWUROWKHLUEHKDYLRXU
XQGHUYDULDEOHFRQGLWLRQV$PRQJVWRWKHUWKLQJVWKH\FRQWUROHPLVVLRQVWRWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDQGWKHXVHRIKHDWZDWHUDQGRWKHULQSXWV0RGHUQHQJLQHFRQWURO
V\VWHPVKDYHEHHQHVVHQWLDOIRUPHHWLQJFDUHQJLQHHPLVVLRQVWDQGDUGVIRUWKHSDVW
GHFDGHDWOHDVW$GYDQFHGFRQWUROV\VWHPVDUHDOVRFULWLFDOIRUPDQDJLQJWKHVRSKLVWLFDWHG
QHZK\EULGDQGIXHOFHOOWHFKQRORJLHVEHLQJGHYHORSHGWRLPSURYHWKHIXHOHIILFLHQF\RI
FDUV.HOO\7KHVHQHZV\VWHPVZLOOQHHGWRFRQWUROWKHFKDUJLQJDQGGLVFKDUJLQJ
RIEDWWHULHVDQGQHZHQHUJ\VWRUDJHV\VWHPVUHFRYHULQJHQHUJ\IURPEUDNHVFRQWUROOLQJ
HOHFWURQLFWUDQVPLVVLRQVRSWLPLVLQJSRZHUIURPHOHFWULFPRWRUVDQGIXHOEXUQLQJHQJLQHV
DQGRWKHURSHUDWLRQV
2WKHUH[DPSOHVFRPHIURPWKHVHUYLFHLQGXVWULHVPDQ\RIZKRVHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWV
UHVXOWIURPWKHHQHUJ\XVHGLQEXLOGLQJV7RJHWKHUUHVLGHQWLDODQGFRPPHUFLDOEXLOGLQJV
XVHDERXWDWKLUGRIDOO86HQHUJ\DQGPRUHWKDQWZRWKLUGVRIDOOHOHFWULFLW\,QIRUPDWLRQ
V\VWHPVSURYLGHNH\WRROVIRULPSURYLQJWKHHIILFLHQF\RIEXLOGLQJVDQGEXLOGLQJ
FRPSRQHQWV,PSURYHGKHDWLQJDQGFRROLQJFRQWUROVFDQHQVXUHWKDWEXLOGLQJVDUHPRUH
FRPIRUWDEOHIRUHDFKRFFXSDQWWKH\FDQDOVROHDGWRPDMRUHQHUJ\VDYLQJV6LPSOH
FRQWUROV\VWHPVFDQSURYLGHVDYLQJVEXWWKLVLVRQO\DEHJLQQLQJ/LNHZLVH
ZLQGRZVDUHFRQVLGHUHGORZWHFKQRORJ\EXWFRXSOHGZLWKLQWHOOLJHQWFRQWUROVWKH\FDQ
KDYHDPDMRULPSDFWRQHQHUJ\XVH$UWLILFLDOOLJKWLQJFDQEHFXWWKURXJKFRQWUROV\VWHPV
ZKHQRXWGRRUOLJKWLVDGHTXDWHDQGDXWRPDWHGGLPPHUVZKHQWKHUHLVOLWWOHDPELHQWOLJKW
9LUWXDOLVDWLRQ
%H\RQGHIILFLHQF\JDLQVVXEVWLWXWLRQVRILQIRUPDWLRQIRUPDWHULDOVDQGHQHUJ\KDVDOVR
EHHQSURSRVHGDVOHDGLQJWRHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWV6XEVWLWXWLRQVPD\EHSDUWLDO
GHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRUFRPSOHWHYLUWXDOLVDWLRQ7KHFOHDUHVWFDVHVRIWKHVHHIIHFWVDUHRI
VXEVWLWXWLRQVRIGLJLWDOLQIRUPDWLRQIRU¶WUDGLWLRQDO·PHGLDSDSHU&'VDQVZHULQJ
PDFKLQHVHWF0RUHEURDGO\WKHDUJXPHQWLVPDGHWKDWSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVDQGRWKHU
GHYLFHVZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHHDVHZLWKZKLFKLQIRUPDWLRQFDQEHDVVLPLODWHGDQG
FRPPXQLFDWHGWKHUHE\UHGXFLQJWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWVDQGHOLPLQDWLQJPDQ\RIWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOFRVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKSDSHUEDVHGWUDQVDFWLRQV
3ULQW3DSHUEDVHGFDWDORJXHVGLUHFWRULHVGLFWLRQDULHVHQF\FORSHGLDVQHZVSDSHUVDQG
PDJD]LQHVDUHDOOEHOLHYHGWREHXQGHUSUHVVXUHIURPFKHDSHUPRUHDFFHVVLEOHDQGPRUH
HDVLO\UHWULHYHGDQGXSGDWHGVRXUFHVRILQIRUPDWLRQRQWKH,QWHUQHW7KH%RVWRQ
&RQVXOWLQJ*URXS%&*SURGXFHGDFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHYLHZRILPSDFWVRI
HOHFWURQLFPHGLDRQSDSHUXVHLQWKH867KH\LQYHVWLJDWHGLPSDFWVRQGLIIHUHQW
VHJPHQWVRIWKHSDSHUPDUNHWILQGLQJWKDWLQPRVWFDVHVWKHUHZRXOGEHHLWKHUGLUHFWRU
LQGLUHFWSUHVVXUHVWHQGLQJWROHDGWRDUHGXFWLRQLQGHPDQG)RULQVWDQFHWKH\IRXQGWKDW
QHZVSDSHUVZHUHYXOQHUDEOHWRHOHFWURQLFVXEVWLWXWLRQE\WKH,QWHUQHWRQJURXQGVRIFRVW
DQGDFFHVVLELOLW\,WDSSHDUVWKDWSHRSOHKDYHEHFRPHPRUHFRPIRUWDEOHUHDGLQJWH[WLQ
HOHFWURQLFIRUPDQGWKLVLVOLNHO\WREHDJURZLQJWUHQGLQIXWXUH5RPP2QOLQH
QHZVSDSHUDQGPDJD]LQHVDUHFKHDSHUEHFDXVHWKH\GRQRWKDYHWRVXSSRUWWKUHHRIWKH
PDMRUH[SHQVHVRIWKHSULQWEXVLQHVVQHZVSULQWGLVWULEXWLRQDQGSULQWLQJFRVWV7KH
%&*VWXG\DOVRGHWHFWHGDQLQGLUHFWHIIHFWRQQHZVSDSHUVWKURXJKSUHVVXUHRQ
DGYHUWLVLQJUHYHQXHVDSURSRUWLRQRIZKLFKZLOOQRZEHWDNHQE\WKH,QWHUQHW2QWKH
RWKHUKDQGWKHVHKLJKHUFRVWVDQGGHFOLQLQJUHYHQXHVZLOOWRVRPHH[WHQWEH
FRXQWHUEDODQFHGE\FRVWVDYLQJVWKDWDUHLQWURGXFHGWKURXJKWKHLQFUHDVLQJGLJLWDOLVDWLRQ
RISULQWSURFHVVHV$OORIWKHVHIDFWRUVDUHSUHGLFWHGWRSOD\DPDMRUUROHLQDGHFOLQHLQ
SDSHUEDVHGFDWDORJXHVGLUHFWRULHVDQGLQIRUPDWLRQEDVHGERRNV%&*SUHGLFWVWKDWWKH
FRQWUDU\WUHQG²WKHJUHDWHUXVHRIRIILFHSDSHUVWRSULQWRXWLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKH:HE
RQGHVNWRSSULQWHUV²ZLOOEHRXWZHLJKHGE\VXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWV
$XGLR7KHFRQVXPSWLRQRIPXVLFRIIHUVDVLJQLILFDQWSRWHQWLDOIRUYLUWXDOLVDWLRQ
'RZQORDGLQJRIPXVLFLQGLJLWDOIRUPDWIRUH[DPSOH03LVRQHRIWKHPRVWSRSXODU
XVHVRIWKH,QWHUQHW$OWKRXJKDIDVW,QWHUQHWFRQQHFWLRQDQGVXIILFLHQWPHPRU\FDSDFLW\
DUHUHTXLUHGDODUJHQXPEHURISHRSOHH[FKDQJHGLJLWDOPXVLFILOHVYLDVSHFLDOLVHG
,QWHUQHWVLWHV'LJLWDOPXVLFFDQEHSOD\HGZLWKIUHHO\DYDLODEOHVRIWZDUHDQGGRHVQRW
UHTXLUHDQ\GHYLFHVRURWKHUWDQJLEOHPHGLD2QFHDJDLQDFULWLFDOXQDQVZHUHGTXHVWLRQLV
KRZIDUWKHVHQHZWHFKQRORJLHVZLOOVXEVWLWXWHIRUH[LVWLQJPHGLDDQGWKHUHIRUHKDYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOEHQILWVRUZKHWKHUWKH\PD\VWLPXODWHDJUHDWHUGHPDQGIRUQHZGHYLFHV
VXFKDV03SOD\HUVPLQLGLVNSOD\HUVRU&'ZULWHUVHDFKHPERG\LQJQHZ
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVLQSURGXFWLRQXVHDQGGLVSRVDO
3KRWRYLGHR7KHVXEVWLWXWLRQRIFKHPLFDOO\SURFHVVHGSKRWRJUDSKLFLPDJHVE\GLJLWDOO\
SURFHVVHGLPDJHVLVDQRWKHUH[DPSOHRIGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ'LJLWDOSKRWRJUDSK\IRU
DPDWHXUSURIHVVLRQDODQGPHGLFDOLQGXVWULDOXVHVDYRLGVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRI
ILOPPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGSURFHVVLQJ1HYLQ'LJLWDOFDPHUDVUHFRUGDQGVWRUH
SKRWRJUDSKLFLPDJHVLQHOHFWURQLFIRUPUDWKHUWKDQFKHPLFDOO\RQSDSHU7UDQVPLVVLRQ
RISLFWXUHVDQGSKRWRJUDSKLFPDWHULDOVZRXOGDOVREHDYRLGHG)RUSURIHVVLRQDOXVHV
GLJLWDOLPDJHVDUHHDVLHUWRPDQLSXODWHDQGUHFRUGDQGPD\OHDGWRUHVRXUFHVDYLQJV$
UHFHQWVWXG\VXJJHVWHGWKDWGLJLWLVDWLRQRIUDGLRJUDSK\ZRXOGOHDGWRVDYLQJVLQ;UD\
ILOPDQGUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHXVHRIGHYHORSHUDQGIL[HU,67
IV.1.3 Intelligent distribution and logistics4
,QFUHDVLQJVXSSO\FKDLQHIILFLHQF\
,QFUHDVHGFRGLILFDWLRQRINQRZOHGJHDQGFRRUGLQDWLRQHQDEOHGE\LQIRUPDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJ\KDVKHOSHGWRPDNHVXSSO\FKDLQVPRUHHIILFLHQW,QWKH86IRUH[DPSOHWKH
DYHUDJHVWRFNWXUQZDVD\HDULQEXWUHDFKHGLQ7KHQHWHIIHFWRIWKLV
ZDVDIDOOLQLQYHQWRU\WRVDOHVUDWLRWRDUHFRUGORZRI:(5&5HGXFHGDQG
IDVWHUPRYLQJLQYHQWRU\WUDQVODWHVLQWRVLJQLILFDQWDOEHLWRQHRIIUHGXFWLRQVLQZDVWDJH
OHYHOV0DUNHWSUHVVXUHVFRXOGDOVRGULYHIXUWKHULPSURYHPHQWV(OHFWURQLFEXVLQHVVWR
EXVLQHVV%%SURFXUHPHQWH[FKDQJHVDQGUHYHUVHDXFWLRQVVHHNWRUHGXFHFRVWV
LQYHQWRU\DQGZDVWDJHZLWKLQWKHVXSSO\FKDLQDQGLQFUHDVHXWLOLVDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJ
FDSDFLW\7KHWZRODWWHUIDFWRUVFUHDWHGLUHFWHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVWKURXJKUHVRXUFH
SURGXFWLYLW\JDLQV²UHGXFHGHQHUJ\DQGPDWHULDOVXVHDQGZDVWDJH+RZHYHUVRPH
HIILFLHQF\JDLQVFRXOGEHRIIVHWE\GHPDQGIRUKLJKVSHHGDQGMXVWLQWLPHGHOLYHU\
ZKLFKZRXOGWHQGWRORZHUUDWHVRIYHKLFOHXWLOLVDWLRQ:KLFKRIWKHVHWUHQGVSUHYDLOV
GHSHQGVWRVRPHH[WHQWRQSULFHVWUXFWXUHVDQGWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV
7KLVVHFWLRQGUDZVKHDYLO\RQ3+RSNLQVRQDQG3-DPHV9LUWXDO7UDIILF8QLYHUVLW\RI%UDGIRUG
$YHUDJHVWRFNWXUQLVDPHDVXUHRIWKHUDWHDWZKLFKSURGXFWVDUHVROGWKURXJKUHWDLORXWOHWV$KLJKHU
VWRFNWXUQGHQRWHVDPRUHHIILFLHQWRSHUDWLRQ
+RPHVKRSSLQJ
6KRSSLQJDFFRXQWVIRUDVXEVWDQWLDOSDUWRISHUVRQDOWUDYHOHJLQ%ULWDLQ
&RPSOHWHUHSODFHPHQWRIFDUEDVHGVKRSSLQJWULSVE\,QWHUQHWRUGHULQJDQGYDQEDVHG
GHOLYHU\FRXOGUHGXFHGLVWDQFHWUDYHOOHG²E\WRDFFRUGLQJWRRQHVLPXODWLRQ
&DLUQV+RZHYHUFRPSOHWHUHSODFHPHQWLVKLJKO\XQOLNHO\7KHUHWDLOVHFWRUDOVR
KDVDVWURQJLQWHUHVWDQGQHZWHFKQLTXHVWRGLYHUWWLPHDQGFRVWVDYLQJVLQWRIXUWKHU
VKRSSLQJ3HRSOHVKRSQRWRQO\WREX\VSHFLILFJRRGVEXWIRUDYDULHW\RIRWKHUUHDVRQV
VXFKDVVRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQH[FLWHPHQWDQGFUHDWLQJDQGPDLQWDLQLQJSHUVRQDOLGHQWLW\
0DQ\IRUHFDVWHUVSUHGLFWWKDWIXWXUHVWRUHVZLOOSODFHPRUHHPSKDVLVRQWKH¶H[SHULHQFH·
RIVKRSSLQJUDWKHUWKDQVLPSO\SURYLGLQJWKHPDUNHWFRQWH[WIRUSXUFKDVLQJ7KHOLPLWHG
VXUYH\HYLGHQFHRIFRQVXPHUUHVSRQVHVWRKRPHVKRSSLQJKDVIRXQGWKDWWKH\UHSRUWHG
OHVVXVHRIFDUV&DLUQV$JDLQVWWKLVHYLGHQFHIURPGHGLFDWHGJURFHU\SLFNLQJ
FHQWUHVLQWKH8.LQGLFDWHVWKDWLQWKHILUVWSKDVHRIRSHUDWLRQVIOHHWDQGYHKLFOH
XWLOLVDWLRQZHUHYHU\ORZGXHWRORZHUWKDQH[SHFWHGGHPDQGDQGDFRQVHTXHQWORZHU
GURSGHQVLW\
$EXVLQHVVPRGHOZKLFKFRQVLJQHGORZPDUJLQVWDSOHVWR,QWHUQHWRUGHULQJDQGGHOLYHU\
DQGUHSODFHGWKHPRQWKHVKHOYHVZLWKPRUHLQWHUHVWLQJKLJKHUPDUJLQJRRGVZRXOGEH
KLJKO\SURILWDEOHIRUFXUUHQWUHWDLOFKDLQV,WLVDOVRSRVVLEOHWKDWWKH,QWHUQHWPLJKW
SURGXFHDQ¶XQEXQGOLQJ·RIPXOWLSOHRUGHUVZKLFKIRUFRQYHQLHQFHZHUHSUHYLRXVO\
PDGHIURPDVLQJOHORFDWLRQ7KLVFRXOGPHDQWKDWDVLQJOHFDUWULSLVUHSODFHGE\D
QXPEHURIYDQGHOLYHULHVOHDGLQJWRDPDMRULQFUHDVHLQGHOLYHU\XQLWV0DUNHUDQG
*RXOLDV
7KHWUDQVSRUWLPSOLFDWLRQVRIUHWDLOHFRPPHUFHZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHGHWDLOVRIORJLVWLFV
DQGWUDQVSRUWV\VWHPV7KHVHDUHVWLOOLQDQH[SHULPHQWDOSKDVHEHFDXVHEXVLQHVVWR
FRQVXPHUHFRPPHUFHLVLQDEVROXWHWHUPVVWLOODYHU\VPDOOPDUNHWOHVVWKHQRIUHWDLO
VDOHVLQWKH86LQ7KHHQYLURQPHQWDORXWFRPHVUHPDLQWKHUHIRUHKLJKO\
VSHFXODWLYH&DLUQVKDVLGHQWLILHGVL[NH\IDFWRUVZKLFKDUHOLNHO\WRLQIOXHQFHWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIKRPHVKRSSLQJ
5HWXUQV²ZKLFKFUHDWHWKHQHHGIRUDGGLWLRQDOMRXUQH\VDQGGHOLYHU\RI
UHSODFHPHQWVDQGDUHSRWHQWLDOO\KLJKHUZLWKKRPHVKRSSLQJEHFDXVHRIWKH
DEVHQFHRIDQ\SK\VLFDOFRQWDFWZLWKJRRGVEHIRUHSXUFKDVHDQGPDQ\YHQGRU·V
FRPPLWPHQWWRHDV\UHWXUQ
&RVWVWUXFWXUHV²DWDJHQHUDOOHYHOZKHWKHUWKHVHUHIOHFWWKHIXOOHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRVWVRIWUDQVSRUWXVHGDQGPRUHVSHFLILFDOO\ZKHWKHUWKH\HQFRXUDJHGHOLYHULHV
RIVPDOOYDOXHDQGZHLJKWDQGHQFRXUDJHGHOLYHULHVDWQRQFRQJHVWHGWLPHV
'HOLYHU\ORFDWLRQV²ZLWKWKHSRVVLELOLW\WKDWKRPHVWRUDJHXQLWVORFDOSLFNXS
SRLQWVDQGVKDUHGGLVWULEXWLRQFKDQQHOVFRXOGUHGXFHUHWXUQVDQGRUPRYHPHQWV
RIGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHV
9HKLFOHXVH²WKHPRGHXVHGDQGIRUURDGYHKLFOHVWKHH[WHQWWRZKLFKWKH\XVH
FRQYHQWLRQDORUDOWHUQDWLYHIXHOVKDYHDGYDQFHGHQJLQHVDQGHPLVVLRQFRQWURO
V\VWHPVDUHZHOOGULYHQDQGPDLQWDLQHG
5RXWLQJDQGVFKHGXOLQJRSWLPLVDWLRQ²EDVHGRQVRSKLVWLFDWHGVRIWZDUHV\VWHPV
DQGDFFXUDWHJOREDOSRVLWLRQLQJV\VWHP*36GDWDWRWUDFNDFWXDOYHKLFOH
ORFDWLRQV
/RDGFRQVROLGDWLRQ²VKDULQJRIGLVWULEXWLRQIDFLOLWLHVDQGGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVWR
LQFUHDVHXWLOLVDWLRQDQGUHGXFHWKHDPRXQWRIYHKLFOHPRYHPHQWVDQGZDUHKRXVH
VSDFHUHTXLUHG
5HFHQWVWXGLHVLQWKLVDUHD7/1,671(5$0DWWKHZVHWDO
LQGLFDWHWKHVHQVLWLYLW\RIWKHRXWFRPHVWRWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGH8QWLOWKHUHLV
PRUHHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHRQKRZFXVWRPHUVUHVSRQGWRKRPHVKRSSLQJDQGZKDW
GHOLYHU\SDWWHUQVVXSSOLHUVXVHLWLVLPSRVVLEOHWRYDOLGDWHRUGLVSURYHFODLPVPDGHDERXW
QHWLPSDFWV
$OWHUQDWLYHGLVWULEXWLRQVWUXFWXUHV
(EXVLQHVVFUHDWHVDQRSSRUWXQLW\IRUDPRUHFRPPXQLW\EDVHGGLVWULEXWLRQVWUXFWXUH
DQGDUHYHUVDORIWKHPRYHWR¶RXWRIWRZQ·GHYHORSPHQWZKLFKKDVRFFXUUHGRYHU
UHFHQWGHFDGHV7KHKLJKFRVWRIGLVWULEXWLQJJRRGVWRKRPHV²ERWKEHFDXVHRIORZ
GURSRIIGHQVLWLHVLQUHVLGHQWLDODUHDVDQGKLJKOHYHOVRIUHWXUQVLVWKH$FKLOOHVKHHORI
%&HFRPPHUFH-DFNVRQ-RQHV2QHUHVSRQVHFRXOGEHQHWZRUNVRIGURS
RIISRLQWVWREHXVHGZKHQSHRSOHDUHQRWDWKRPHDQGRUDVWKHSULPDU\GLVWULEXWLRQ
SRLQWZLWKWKHLQFHQWLYHEHLQJORZHUFKDUJHV*UDQGD
7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURIRSWLRQVIRUWKLVQHWZRUN)RUH[LVWLQJSUHPLVHVWKHVHLQFOXGH
VXSHUVWRUHVVKRSSLQJFHQWUHVDQGRWKHUUHWDLOFHQWUHV&71VFRQIHFWLRQHU\WREDFFRDQG
QHZVRXWOHWVFRQYHQLHQFHVWRUHVYLOODJHVWRUHVSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWQRGHVYLOODJHVWRUHV
FRPPXQLW\KDOOVDQGVFKRROV,WKDVDOVREHHQVXJJHVWHGWKDWSXUSRVHGHVLJQHGIDFLOLWLHV
FRXOGEHEXLOWRQEXVLQHVVSDUNVDWPDMRUHPSOR\PHQWVLWHVGULYHLQVKRSSLQJFHQWUHV
SDUNDQGULGHVFKHPHVDQGZDUHKRXVHVLWHV
2QHVWULNLQJIHDWXUHRIPDQ\RIWKHGLVFXVVLRQVRIFROOHFWLRQWRGDWHLVWKDWFDUDFFHVVLVD
SULPDU\FULWHULRQ:KLOHWKLVLVREYLRXVO\LPSRUWDQWHVSHFLDOO\IRUEXON\JRRGVQR
HTXLYDOHQWDWWHQWLRQLVSDLGWRF\FOLQJRUZDONLQJDVDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRIFROOHFWLRQ
1HLWKHUKDVWKHUHEHHQPXFKGLVFXVVLRQRI¶FRPPXQLW\GLVWULEXWLRQPRGHOV·DLPHGDW
PLQLPLVLQJYHKLFOHPRYHPHQWVSDUWLFXODUO\LQUHVLGHQWLDODUHDV2QHSRVVLELOLW\LVWKDW
WKH\EHFRPHORFDOPHHWLQJSODFHVZKLFKSURYLGHDQDOWHUQDWLYHPHDQVRIPHHWLQJVRPH
RIWKHSV\FKRORJLFDOUHTXLUHPHQWVRIVKRSSLQJVXFKDVVRFLDOLQWHUDFWLRQ
*HRJUDSKLFH[WHQVLRQRIVXSSO\SDWWHUQV
7KHLQFUHDVHGRUGHULQJRSWLRQVZKLFKHEXVLQHVVSURYLGHVWRERWKEXVLQHVVDQG
FRQVXPHUVZLOOUHVXOWLQPRUHJHRJUDSKLFDOO\H[WHQGHGVXSSO\SDWWHUQVDQGWKHUHIRUH
KLJKHUWUDQVSRUWLQWHQVLW\RIJRRGV7KHUHLVFRQVLGHUDEOHHYLGHQFHWKDWWKLVLVKDSSHQLQJ
DWDJOREDOVFDOH7KHEHVWREMHFWLYHLQGLFDWRULVWKHKLJKUDWHRIJURZWKRIDLUIUHLJKW
FXUUHQWO\SHU\HDUZKLFKLVEHLQJSDUWLDOO\GULYHQE\HEXVLQHVV/RERDQG=DLUL
7KHJURZLQJVRSKLVWLFDWLRQRIVSHFLDOLVHGVXSSO\FKDLQPDQDJHPHQWE\ERWK
LPSRUWHUVDQGH[SRUWHUVDQGWKHFUHDWLRQRIRQOLQHPDUNHWVLQPRVWVHFWRUVLVOLNHO\WR
VWUHQJWKHQWKLVWUHQG
(EXVLQHVVGULYHQWUDGHZRXOGEHOHVVWUDQVSRUWLQWHQVLYHLIPRUHJRRGVFRXOGEHVKLSSHG
E\VHDDQGUDLOUDWKHUWKDQDLUDQGURDG+RZHYHUHFRPPHUFHXVXDOO\GHPDQGVIDVWDQG
KLJKO\IOH[LEOHVXSSO\FKDLQVZKHUHDVUDLODQGVHDWUDQVSRUWDUHWKHVORZHVWDQGOHDVW
IOH[LEOHPRGHVZLWKKLJKLQIUDVWUXFWXUHFRVWVDQGDUHOLDQFHRQUHJXODUYROXPH
VKLSPHQWV7KLVLQKHUHQWGLVDGYDQWDJHLVFRPSRXQGHGE\WKHVORZHUSHQHWUDWLRQRIH
EXVLQHVVZLWKLQWKHUDLODQGPDULWLPHVHFWRUV
)UDJPHQWHGVXSSO\EDVH
2QOLQHRUGHULQJZLOOLQFUHDVHWKHQXPEHURIVXSSOLHUVDQGGHFUHDVHDYHUDJHRUGHUVL]HV
PDNLQJLWKDUGHUWRDOORFDWHHQYLURQPHQWDOUHVSRQVLELOLW\WRFKDLQPHPEHUV2YHUWKHODVW
GHFDGHWKHJHQHUDOWUHQGLQVXSSO\FKDLQVKDVEHHQWRZRUNZLWKIHZHUVXSSOLHUV
HVSHFLDOO\IRUNH\¶ILUVWWLHU·VXSSOLHUVZKRRIWHQFRRUGLQDWHWKHLQSXWVRI¶VHFRQGWLHU·
VXSSOLHUV+RZHYHUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI%%HFRPPHUFH¶SODWIRUPV·PDNHVLWHDVLHUWR
VRXUFHIURPDODUJHUQXPEHUDQGZLGHUJHRJUDSKLFUDQJHRIVXSSOLHUV7KLVLVHVSHFLDOO\
WUXHRIWKHPDLQWHQDQFHUHSDLUDQGRSHUDWLQJLWHPVDQGFRPPRGLWLHVZKLFKIRUPWKH
EXONRI%%SXUFKDVHVE\YDOXH7KHPDLQGULYHULVDVHDUFKIRUORZHUWUDQVDFWLRQFRVWV
LQVRXUFLQJLWHPVDQGFRQWUDFWLQJIRUWKHLUSXUFKDVH
7KHRUJDQLVDWLRQDODQGSHUVRQDOWLHVEHWZHHQFXVWRPHUVDQGVXSSOLHUVPD\EHZHDNHQHG
E\%%H[FKDQJHVPDNLQJLWGLIILFXOWIRULQGLYLGXDOFXVWRPHUVWRH[HUWLQIRUPDOSUHVVXUH
IRULPSURYHPHQW7KHEHVWPHDQVRIRYHUFRPLQJWKHVHIRUFHVLVOLNHO\WREHSUH
TXDOLILFDWLRQSURFHGXUHVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOSHUIRUPDQFH$QDOWHUQDWLYHRU
FRPSOHPHQWDU\RSWLRQZRXOGEHWRUHTXLUHEX\HUVWRSURYLGHHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDO
LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWWKHJRRGVWKH\DUHVHOOLQJSHUKDSVEDVHGRQVWDQGDUGLVHGSDUDPHWHUV
+RZHYHUWKHFRVWUHGXFWLRQIRFXVRIH[FKDQJHVDQGWKHGDQJHUVRIYLRODWLQJIUHHWUDGH
UHJXODWLRQVPD\UHTXLUHVRPHNLQGRISROLF\LQWHUYHQWLRQWRDFKLHYHLW
IV.1.4 Changing seller-buyer relationships
0DVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ
0DVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ²SURGXFWLRQV\VWHPVWKDWPDQXIDFWXUHSURGXFWVIRULQGLYLGXDO
FRQVXPHUV²KDVEHHQSURSRVHGDVDIXWXUHRUJDQLVLQJSULQFLSOHRIEXVLQHVVMXVWDVPDVV
SURGXFWLRQE\DVVHPEO\OLQHZDVWKHRUJDQLVLQJEXVLQHVVSULQFLSOHXQGHU)RUGLVP,QWKH
PDVVSURGXFWLRQPRGHOEXVLQHVVHVPDLQWDLQDRQHWRPDQ\UHODWLRQVKLSZLWK
FRQVXPHUV&RQVXPHUGHPDQGLVSUHGLFWHGDQGDOLPLWHGQXPEHURISURGXFWOLQHVDUH
GHYHORSHGWRPHHWWKDWGHPDQG7KURXJKEUDQGLQJDQGDGYHUWLVLQJFRQVXPHUVDUH
HQFRXUDJHGWREX\JRRGVWKDWKDYHDOUHDG\EHHQPDQXIDFWXUHGDQGDUHVWRFNHGRQVWRUH
VKHOYHV,QVWDEOHFRPPRGLWLVHGPDUNHWVWKLVPRGHOZRUNVZHOO%XWWKHUHDUHPDQ\
RSSRUWXQLWLHVIRULQHIILFLHQF\QHZSURGXFWOLQHVWKDWGRQ
WVHOORYHUSURGXFWLRQGXHWR
VKLIWVLQWDVWHRUWKHHFRQRP\QHZWHFKQRORJLHVWKDWUHQGHUSURGXFWVREVROHWH1HYLQ
,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWPDNHPDVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQSRVVLEOHEHFDXVHWKH\HQDEOHDULFK
H[FKDQJHRILQIRUPDWLRQEHWZHHQFRPSDQLHVDQGLQGLYLGXDOFXVWRPHUVZKHWKHUSULYDWH
RUFRPPHUFLDO7KHSULPDU\HIIHFWFDQEHWRGUDPDWLFDOO\UHGXFHLQYHQWRULHV$V'HOO
FRPSXWHUVKDVVKRZQLQIDVWPRYLQJLQGXVWULHVOLNHHOHFWURQLFVZKHUHWKHYDOXHRI
FRPSXWHUFKLSVDQGRWKHUFRPSRQHQWVGHSUHFLDWHVGD\E\GD\WKHUHDUHFOHDUEXVLQHVV
EHQHILWVWRUHGXFLQJVWRFNSLOHVRIVRRQWREHREVROHVFHQWHTXLSPHQWDQGPDFKLQHV
6HYHUDOHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVKDYHEHHQSURSRVHGIRUPDVVFXVWRPLVDWLRQ)LUVW
SURGXFWLRQFDQEHPDWFKHGPRUHWLJKWO\WRFRQVXPHUGHPDQGUHGXFLQJWKHHQHUJ\
DVVRFLDWHGZLWKZDUHKRXVLQJSURGXFWV6HFRQGH[FHVVLQYHQWRULHVDQGWKHZDVWH
HPERGLHGLQWKHPZRXOGEHUHGXFHG7KLUGSURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVFRXOGEHGHVLJQHGWR
ILWWKHIXQFWLRQDOLW\GHVLUHGE\WKHFRQVXPHUPRUHDFFXUDWHO\VRLPSURYLQJWKH
HQYLURQPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\ZLWKZKLFKLWLVXVHG)RXUWKWKHSURGXFHUFRXOGEH
WUDQVIRUPHGLQWRDSURYLGHURIVHUYLFHVWRWKHILQDOFRQVXPHURIIHULQJQHZEXVLQHVV
RSSRUWXQLWLHVZKLOHDOVRFUHDWLQJWKHFRQGLWLRQVIRURZQHUVKLSDQGUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRU
SURGXFWVGHOLYHULQJVHUYLFHVWRUHPDLQZLWKWKHVHUYLFHSURYLGHU6RPHDXWKRUVKDYH
VXJJHVWHGWKDWWKLVPD\SUHVDJHWKHGHYHORSPHQWRI¶FORVHGORRS·SURGXFWDQGVHUYLFH
V\VWHPVLQZKLFKSURGXFHUVKDYHLQFHQWLYHVWRUHGXFHWKHUHVRXUFHFRVWDQG
HQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQRIWKHVHUYLFHVWKH\SURYLGH
IV.1.5 Work organisation
7HOHFRPPXWLQJDQGWHOHZRUNLQJ
7KHPDMRUK\SRWKHVLVHGHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVRIWHOHFRPPXWLQJDQGWHOHZRUNLQJ
77DUHWKHUHGXFHGQHHGIRURIILFHVSDFHOHDGLQJWRHQHUJ\VDYLQJVDQGDUHGXFHG
QXPEHURIMRXUQH\VWRZRUNSURGXFLQJHQHUJ\VDYLQJVUHGXFHGDLUSROOXWLRQDQG
UHGXFWLRQVLQFRQJHVWLRQ:KLOHWKHVHVDYLQJVPD\EHDFKLHYHGLQVRPHFDVHVWKHUHLV
DOVRHYLGHQFHWKDWHPSOR\HHVPD\EHEHFRPLQJPRUHSHULSDWHWLFLQVRPHVHUYLFHVHFWRUV
,QJHQHUDOVWXGLHVKDYHVKRZQWKDWWKHSRWHQWLDOIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOVDYLQJVIURP77
DUHOLNHO\WREHVPDOO$-DSDQHVHVWXG\HVWLPDWHGWKDW77ZRXOGSURGXFHVDYLQJVRI
DERXWPLOOLRQWRQQHVRIFDUERQD\HDURURIWKHUHGXFWLRQQHHGHGXQGHUWKH
FRXQWU\·VFRPPLWPHQWVXQGHUWKH.\RWRSURWRFRO037FLWHGLQ0DWWKHZV
IV.2 Critical issues
IV.2.1 The problem of ‘incomplete substitution’
:KLOH,&7DQG,QWHUQHWHQDEOHGVHUYLFHVPD\VXEVWLWXWHIRUVRPHWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQG
VHUYLFHVVXEVWLWXWLRQLVUDUHO\FRPSOHWH,QFRPSOHWHVXEVWLWXWLRQPD\LQGHHGOHDGWRQHZ
GHPDQGDQGLQYHVWPHQWLQJRRGVDQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGWKHUHIRUHUHVXOWLQPRUH
UHVRXUFHXVHDQGSROOXWLRQ
7KLVSKHQRPHQRQLVOLNHO\WRDULVHLQWKHDUHDRIORJLVWLFV,QFUHDVHGRQOLQHVKRSSLQJLV
FXUUHQWO\FUHDWLQJQHZWUDQVSRUWVWUXFWXUHV)RUH[DPSOHDQXPEHURIUHWDLOFKDLQVKDYH
VWDUWHGODUJHHFRPPHUFHRSHUDWLRQVUHTXLULQJQHZRUWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIH[LVWLQJFDOO
FHQWUHVZDUHKRXVHVSLFNDQGSDFNFHQWUHVGHOLYHU\YHKLFOHVDQGVRRQ7KLVQHZ
LQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWHOOLJHQWO\PDQDJHGWKURXJK,&7VKDVWKHSRWHQWLDOWREHPRUHHIILFLHQW
WKDQWKHODUJHQXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOVKRSSLQJWULSVHVSHFLDOO\LIWKH\UHSODFHMRXUQH\VWR
RXWRIWRZQVKRSSLQJFHQWUHV+RZHYHUHQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVZLOORQO\RFFXULIWKHVH
QHZLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVOHDGWRH[SHFWHGVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWV
7KLVQHHGQRWDOZD\VEHWKHFDVH6RPHFRQVXPHUVPLJKWFKRRVHWRGRDSDUWRIWKHLU
VKRSSLQJRQOLQHHJKHDY\RUORZYDOXHJRRGVEXWVWLOOGULYHLQWRWKHWRZQFHQWUHWR
EX\RWKHUJRRGV6LPLODUSKHQRPHQDFDQEHH[SHFWHGLQRWKHUDUHDV7KHVHXQVWDEOH
SDWWHUQVRIVXEVWLWXWLRQZLOOEHPRVWDSSDUHQWGXULQJWKHSHULRGRIWUDQVLWLRQDQG
RYHUODSEHWZHHQWUDGLWLRQDODQGDQ,&7EDVHGV\VWHP%XWDVLQWKHFDVHRIWKH
¶SDSHUOHVVRIILFH·DWUDQVLWLRQSHULRGFDQH[WHQGRYHUPDQ\\HDUVEHFDXVHFRQVXPHU
EHKDYLRXUGRHVQRWDOZD\VFRUUHVSRQGWRWKHH[SHFWDWLRQVRIWKRVHZKRSUHGLFWWKH
YLUWXDOLVDWLRQRIWKHHFRQRP\&ODLPVRIVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWVQHHGWREHFDUHIXOO\
HYDOXDWHG0DQ\UHPDLQVSHFXODWLYH
IV.2.2 Re-materialisation
,QIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVFDQLQVRPHLQVWDQFHVOHDGWRD¶UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ·RI
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHV$OWKRXJKPDQ\GLJLWDOGHYLFHV3&VFHOOXODUSKRQHVKDYHEHHQ
VXEVWDQWLDOO\PLQLDWXULVHGDQG¶GHPDWHULDOLVHG·WKH\KDYHDOVRYDVWO\LQFUHDVHGWKH
FDSDFLW\RIWKHILQDOFRQVXPHUWRFRQVXPH%\LQWHQVLI\LQJFRPSHWLWLRQLQWHJUDWLQJ
PDUNHWVDQGGULYLQJGRZQSULFHVWKHVHGHYLFHVSURYLGHQHZRSSRUWXQLWLHVWRFRQVXPH
ERWKWDQJLEOHDQGLQWDQJLEOHJRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV,QSDUWLFXODUWKH,QWHUQHWLQFUHDVHVWKH
¶UHDFK·RIFRQVXPHUVLQWHUPVRIFKRLFHDQGJHRJUDSKLFDOO\2QHFRQFUHWHH[DPSOHRI
UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQLVGRFXPHQWDFFHVVWKURXJKWKHZHEDOORZLQJIRUDSULQWHGSDSHUFRS\
LQMXVWDIHZPRXVHFOLFNV
(FRPPHUFHFDQDOVRSURYLGHHDVLHUDFFHVVWRPDUNHWVIRUVXSSOLHUVLQUHPRWHORFDWLRQV
DQGWRJRRGVIRUGLVDGYDQWDJHGFRQVXPHUV$OWKRXJKWKLVSKHQRPHQRQPLJKWKDYH
VRFLDOO\EHQHILFLDOHIIHFWVWUDQVSRUWLPSOLFDWLRQVDUHSUREOHPDWLF7KHVHHIIHFWVDUHQRZ
LGHQWLILDEOHJOREDOO\)RUH[DPSOH,QGLDQIDUPHUVKDYHXVHGWKH,QWHUQHWWRFKHFNSULFHV
LQUHJLRQDOPDUNHWVZKLFKFDQEHPXFKKLJKHUWKDQWKRVHRIIHUHGE\ORFDOPHUFKDQWV
/OR\G7KH\DUHQRZE\SDVVLQJWKHVHDQGWUDQVSRUWLQJWKHLUSURGXFHGLUHFWO\WR
UHJLRQDOPDUNHW$OWKRXJKWKLVKDVPHDQWORQJHUKDXOVXSWRNPWKHSULFHVWKH\
FDQREWDLQDUHVRPHWLPHVKLJKHUWKDQORFDOO\
V. Third order effects of ICTs
,&7VDQGWKH,QWHUQHWDUHSURIRXQGO\DIIHFWLQJWKHVWUXFWXUHRIHFRQRPLHVERWKLQ
FKDQJLQJWKHUHODWLYHVL]HDQGLPSRUWDQFHRILQGXVWULDOVHFWRUVDQGVXEVHFWRUVEXWDOVR
RQWKHVL]HDQGGHPRJUDSK\ELUWKVXUYLYDOGHDWKRIILUPV$WILUVWVLJKWWKHVHFKDQJHV
VHHPOLNHO\WRKDYHSRVLWLYHLPSDFWVRQHQYLURQPHQWDOVXVWDLQDELOLW\HVSHFLDOO\WKURXJK
WKHJURZWKRI¶OLJKW·VHUYLFHVDWWKHH[SHQVHRI¶KHDY\·PDQXIDFWXULQJ%XWWKHQHWHIIHFW
RIWKHVHVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVZLOOGHSHQGRQWKHEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHUHODWLYHEDODQFHRI
WKHVH¶OLJKWHQLQJ·HIIHFWVDQGWKHFRXQWHULQIOXHQFHVRIHFRQRPLFJURZWKZKLFKVWLOO
OHDGVWRQHWJURZWKLQWKHGHPDQGIRUPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVDQGWKHSK\VLFDOLQYHVWPHQWV
WKDWDUHJHQHUDWHGWRHQDEOHDQGPRWLYDWHWKH,QWHUQHWHFRQRP\
V.1 Structural change and resource use
$WWKHPDFURHFRQRPLFOHYHOWKHQRWLRQRIGHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQRU¶LQWHQVLW\RIXVH·
K\SRWKHVLVZDVILUVWGLVFXVVHGLQWKHVDQGSURGXFHGWKH¶(QYLURQPHQWDO.X]QHWV
&XUYH·(.&K\SRWKHVLV%URDGO\WKLVDUJXHVWKDWGXULQJWKHSURFHVVRI
LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQHFRQRPLHVXVHPDWHULDOUHVRXUFHVVWHHOFHPHQWHQHUJ\FDUULHUVPRUH
LQWHQVLYHO\XQWLODWKUHVKROGLVUHDFKHGDIWHUZKLFKVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVLQWKHHFRQRP\
WKHGHFOLQHRIPDQXIDFWXULQJDQGWKHULVHRIVHUYLFHVOHDGVWRSURJUHVVLYHO\OHVV
LQWHQVLYHPDWHULDOVXVH
,&7VFRQWULEXWHVLJQLILFDQWO\WRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHVWKDWUHGXFHWKHUHODWLYHUHVRXUFH
LQWHQVLW\RIWKHHFRQRP\7KLVRFFXUVWKURXJKWKHJURZWKRI,7UHODWHGVHUYLFHVHJ
VRIWZDUHGHYHORSPHQW,QWHUQHWVHUYLFHVQHZDGYHUWLVLQJDQGPDUNHWLQJVHUYLFHVHWF
DQGWKURXJKWKHJURZWKRIWUDGLWLRQDOVHUYLFHVHJILQDQFLDOVHUYLFHV6HUYLFHVHFWRUVDUH
VXSSRUWHGE\PDWHULDOLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVDQGWUDQVDFWLRQVWUDQVSRUWVHUYLFHVIRULQVWDQFH
DQGDUHQRWDV¶FOHDQ·DVVRPHWLPHVSUHVHQWHG+RZHYHUWKH\WHQGWRJHQHUDWHKLJKHU
YDOXHDGGHGZLWKORZHUHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFW
7KHUHLVHYLGHQFHWKDWWKHUDSLGGLIIXVLRQRI,&7VVSHHGVXSWKLVRQJRLQJVWUXFWXUDO
FKDQJHDQGWKHUHIRUHFRQWULEXWHVWRLQFUHPHQWDOLPSURYHPHQWVLQUHODWLYHUHVRXUFH
HIILFLHQF\%XWHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHDOVRVKRZVWKDWLQDEVROXWHWHUPVWKHVHHFRQRPLHVDUH
VWLOO¶PDWHULDOLVLQJ·LHJHWWLQJKHDYLHU%HUNKRXW:5,$QRYHURSWLPLVWLF
DVVHVVPHQWZRXOGDOVREHLQDSSURSULDWHEHFDXVHVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHKDVIDLOHGWRDGGUHVVD
QXPEHURILPSRUWDQWHQYLURQPHQWDOSUREOHPVVXFKDVELRGLYHUVLW\ORVVODQGXVHZDVWH
DQGFOLPDWHFKDQJH7KHVHVHHPWREHFORVHO\UHODWHGWRWKHRYHUDOOHFRQRPLFDFWLYLW\
UDWKHUWKDQVSHFLILFVHFWRUDOGHYHORSPHQWV
,&7VDOVRFRQWULEXWHWRVWUXFWXUDOFKDQJHDWWKHJOREDOOHYHO7KH\DUHEHOLHYHGWREHDW
WKHKHDUWRIWKHHFRQRPLFSROLWLFDOVRFLDODQGFXOWXUDOSURFHVVHVWHUPHG¶JOREDOLVDWLRQ·
&ORVHGFRPPXQLFDWLRQVQHWZRUNVFRQQHFWILQDQFLDODQGRWKHUJOREDOPDUNHWVDQGHQDEOH
WKHPDQDJHPHQWRIJOREDOVXSSO\FKDLQV7KHJURZWKLQWUDGHJHQHUDWHGE\WKH
H[WHQVLRQRIPDUNHWVKDVEHHQDIRFXVRIDFDGHPLFDQGSROLWLFDOGLVSXWHIRURYHUD
GHFDGH$GYRFDWHVRIOLEHUDOLVDWLRQRIPDUNHWVDQGLQWHUQDWLRQDOWUDGHDUJXHWKDWWKHVH
ZLOOUHVXOWLQIDVWHUHFRQRPLFJURZWKPRYLQJFRXQWULHVPRUHUDSLGO\WKURXJKWKH
WKUHVKROGRIPDWHULDOVLQWHQVLW\DQGSURYLGLQJWKHPZLWKDOHYHORIZHOIDUHWKDWHQDEOHV
WKHVHFRXQWULHVWRLPSRVHFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHJLPHVWRUHJXODWHWKHLUHQYLURQPHQW&ULWLFV
KDYHDUJXHGWKDWXQIHWWHUHGWUDGHPD\RQO\OHDGWRDVKLIWRI¶GLUW\LQGXVWULHV·WR
¶SROOXWLRQKDYHQV·LQZKLFKSURGXFHUVLQLQGXVWULDOLVHGFRXQWULHVUHORFDWHSURGXFWLRQWR
OHVVGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVZLWKORZHUHQYLURQPHQWDOVWDQGDUGVDQGORZHUFRVWVVRDVWR
UHH[SRUWWRQRUWKHUQPRUHGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHV·PDUNHWV+HUHDJDLQHYLGHQFHLV
LQFRQFOXVLYHZLWKDYDULHW\RIVWXGLHVILQGLQJVXSSRUWIRUERWKSRVLWLRQV*RVVDUW
V.2 The rebound effect
7KHWHUP¶UHERXQGHIIHFW·LVXVHGWRGHVFULEHDQXPEHURIRIWHQFRXQWHULQWXLWLYH
IHHGEDFNHIIHFWVWKDWFRPSHQVDWHRURYHUFRPSHQVDWHLQFUHDVHVLQHQYLURQPHQWDO
HIILFLHQF\7KHVHHIIHFWVKDYHEHHQREVHUYHGIRUH[DPSOHLQWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUZKHUH
VXFFHVVIXOPHDVXUHVWRUHGXFHWUDIILFOHGWRIUHHUURDGVZKLFKLQWXUQVWLPXODWHGQHZ
WUDIILFDQGDJURZWKLQFRQJHVWLRQ7KHUHERXQGHIIHFWFDQEHFDXVHGE\WZRPDLQ
HIIHFWVIDOOLQJSULFHVDQGLQFUHDVHGFDSDFLW\
$VDOOWKHGHVFULEHGPHFKDQLVPVDQGPRUHFRPSHWLWLYHRSHQJOREDOPDUNHWVFRQWULEXWH
WRDPRUHHIILFLHQWXVHRIQDWXUDOUHVRXUFHVWKHSULFHVRIUDZPDWHULDOVDQGRWKHU
SURGXFWLRQLQSXWVHOHFWULFLW\JDVPHWDOVHWFZLOOWHQGWRIDOO&RVWSUHVVXUHVRQHRIWKH
PDLQGULYHUVRIHFRHIILFLHQF\LPSURYHPHQWVUHGXFHDQGWKHLQFUHDVHLQUHVRXUFH
HIILFLHQF\FRXOGVORZGRZQ7KHSURGXFHUVRIPDWHULDOVIRUZKLFKGHPDQGIDOOVVXIIHU
HFRQRPLFORVVHVDQGWKH\ZLOOXQGHUWDNHHIIRUWVWRILQGQHZPDUNHWRSSRUWXQLWLHV
%HFDXVHPDQ\PDWHULDOVKDYHDSRWHQWLDOIRUVXEVWLWXWLRQZLQGRZVFDQEHPDGHIURP
ZRRGSODVWLFDQGDOXPLQLXPIRUH[DPSOHQHZPDUNHWVIRUHQYLURQPHQWDOO\GDPDJLQJ
PDWHULDOVFDQEHDFFHVVHG
7KHVHFRQGPHFKDQLVPLVWKHJHQHUDWLRQRIQHZFDSDFLW\0DQ\,&7DSSOLFDWLRQVDOORZD
EHWWHUPDQDJHPHQWRIWLPHPRQH\ODERXUWUDQVSRUWLQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGVRRQ7KLV
OHDGVWRQHZFDSDFLW\WKDWZLOOLQHYLWDEO\EHILOOHG7KHNH\TXHVWLRQLVZKHWKHUWKHWLPH
DQGPRQH\JDLQHGWKURXJKWKHXVHRI,&7VLVVSHQWLQPRUHRUOHVVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\
GDPDJLQJZD\V)RUH[DPSOHVRPH86WHOHZRUNLQJVWXGLHVIRXQGWKDWLQLWLDOUHGXFWLRQV
LQFDUWUDYHODUHSDUWLDOO\RIIVHWRYHUWLPHE\VWLPXODWLRQRIQHZGULYLQJ+RSNLQVRQ
-DPHVDQG6HOZ\Q7KLVLQFOXGHVOLYLQJIXUWKHUDZD\IURPWKHZRUNSODFHZKLFKQR
ORQJHUKDVWREHDWWHQGHGILYHGD\VDZHHNRUPDNLQJVKRUWWULSVIURPKRPHWRVKRSVRU
RWKHUORFDWLRQVGXULQJPRUHIUDJPHQWHGZRUNGD\V6LPLODUO\WKHSUHVHQFHRIRQOLQH
ERRNVHOOHUVXFKDV$PD]RQDQG%RRNVRQ/LQHVHHPVWRKDYHH[SDQGHGWKHRYHUDOO
PDUNHWIRUERRNV3URYLGLQJHDV\DFFHVVWRDODUJHUQXPEHURISURGXFWVDWORZHUSULFHV
WKH\KDYHLQFUHDVHGERRNVDOHV
V.3 Life style changes
)LQDOO\QHZLQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVDUHOLNHO\WRKDYHZLGHULPSDFWRQVRFLDOYDOXHV
OLIHVW\OHVDQGFXOWXUH$OWKRXJKWKHVHFKDQJHVDQGWKHLULPSDFWRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW
UHPDLQKLJKO\VSHFXODWLYHLWVKRXOGEHQRWHGWKDWDOLYHO\GHEDWHLVFXUUHQWO\GHYHORSLQJ
2QHRIWKHZLGHO\GLVFXVVHGWUHQGVLVWKHSRVVLEOHHPHUJHQFHRIDQHZJUHHQ
FRQVXPHULVPEDVHGRQWKHQHZSRVVLELOLWLHVRILQIRUPDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV5LFKHUVRFLHWLHV
DUHJHQHUDOO\H[SHFWHGWRVKLIWWRZDUGVSRVWPDWHULDOLVWYDOXHV,&7V\VWHPVFRXOGDOORZ
FRQVXPHUVDQGFLYLOVRFLHW\WRWUDQVODWHWKHVHYDOXHVLQWRSXUFKDVLQJDQGRWKHUGHFLVLRQV
)RUH[DPSOHQHZRQOLQHLQIRUPDWLRQVHUYLFHVFRXOGSURYLGHFRQVXPHUVZLWKPRUH
LQIRUPDWLRQDEXWWKH¶HWKLFDO·SHUIRUPDQFHRIFRPSHWLQJSURGXFWVDQGRIIHUWKHPWKH
FKDQFHWRWDNHRQPRUHUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUOHVVHQYLURQPHQWDOO\EXUGHQVRPHOLIHVW\OHVDQG
KDELWV(QDEOHGWRPDNHLQIRUPHGFKRLFHVDERXWSURGXFWVRQWKHEDVLVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO
FULWHULDFRQVXPHUVFRXOGVWLPXODWHPRUHHQYLURQPHQWDOO\UHVSRQVLEOHSURGXFWLRQDQG
LQQRYDWLRQ
2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKHIDFWWKDW,&7QHWZRUNVGHFUHDVHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIJHRJUDSKLFDO
GLVWDQFHFRXOGDOVROHDGWRDUHPRELOLVDWLRQQRWRQO\RIJRRGVEXWDOVRRIODERXUDQG
OHLVXUH7KHJUHDWHUFRQQHFWLYLW\EHWZHHQSHRSOHSURYLGHGE\HPDLODQGWKH,QWHUQHWZLOO
DOPRVWFHUWDLQO\VWLPXODWHWKHGHVLUHWRPHHWGLUHFWO\WRVKDUHPDWHULDOJRRGVDQGWR
H[SHULHQFHWKHVSHFLILFLW\RISODFHV7UDQVSRUWDQGWUDYHODUHDOPRVWDOZD\VOLQNHGWR
QHJDWLYHHQYLURQPHQWDOHIIHFWV
VI. Conclusions
,&7VDUHKDYLQJPDMRUHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVDQGIURPWKHVHIORZDZLGHUDQJHRI
ERWKSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHLPSDFWVRQWKHHQYLURQPHQW,QJHQHUDOVHFRQGRUGHU
HIIHFWVRQWKHGHVLJQDQGRSHUDWLRQRISURGXFWVDQGVHUYLFHVKDVDSRVLWLYH
HQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFW+RZHYHUWKHUHLVJUHDWXQFHUWDLQW\DERXWWKHWKLUGRUGHU
HIIHFWVRQFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXUDJJUHJDWHGHPDQGDQGWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRI
HFRQRPLFJURZWKZKHWKHUJURZWKLVVXEVWDQWLDOO\GHPDWHULDOLVHGRUQRW,W
VHHPVKLJKO\OLNHO\WKRXJKFXUUHQWO\LPSRVVLEOHWRFRQILUPWKDWWKHUHZLOOEHD
PLVPDWFKEHWZHHQRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRUJUHDWHUHQYLURQPHQWDOHIILFLHQF\DWWKH
PLFUROHYHODQGUHVRXUFHXVHDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVLQWKHDJJUHJDWH0DQ\
RIWKHVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWVSRVLWHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHDUHHLWKHURIOLPLWHG
HQYLURQPHQWDOVLJQLILFDQFHRQO\SDUWLDORUPD\VWLPXODWHQHZIRUPVRI
FRQVXPSWLRQZKLFKJHQHUDWHQHZHQYLURQPHQWDOEXUGHQV7KHUHLVHYHQWKH
SRVVLELOLW\RIZKDWPLJKWEHWHUPHGDSURFHVVRI¶UHPDWHULDOLVDWLRQ·RIWKH1HZ
(FRQRP\DVSULFHVIRUUDZPDWHULDOVIDOODQGFRQVXPHUVEHFRPHLQFUHDVLQJO\
GLVWDQFHGIURPWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVRIWKHLUFRQVXPSWLRQ
0RVWRIWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQWKHOLQNEHWZHHQ,&7VDQGWKHHQYLURQPHQWLVKLJKO\
SRVLWLYLVWLFLGHQWLI\LQJRSSRUWXQLWLHVDQGEXLOGLQJIURPFDVHVWXG\HYLGHQFH
7KHUHLVQRZWKHHPHUJHQFHRIDPRUHV\VWHPDWLFDQDO\VLVRIWKHIXOOFRPSOH[LW\
RIWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEXWWKHHYLGHQFHEDVHIURPZKLFKWRGUDZFRQFOXVLRQVLVVWLOO
WKLQ$QRWKHUSUREOHPLVWKDWPRVWVWXGLHVDUH¶IXWXUHRULHQWHG·VSHFXODWLQJ
DERXWWKHLPSDFWVRIWHFKQRORJLFDODQGPDUNHWFKDQJHVWKDWKDYHQRW\HW
RFFXUUHGDQGWKDWDUHVWLOOKLJKO\XQFHUWDLQ
0HWKRGVRILPSDFWDVVHVVPHQWLQFOXGHTXDOLWDWLYHDFFRXQWVKLJKO\VLPSOLILHG
FRQFHSWXDOPRGHOOLQJRISRVVLEOHEHQHILWVLI;LVVXEVWLWXWHGZLWK<WKLVZLOOOHDG
WR=VDYLQJV,QJHQHUDOWKH\DUHXQDEOHWRKDQGOHIHHGEDFNHIIHFWVGXHWR
UHVSRQVHVLQPDUNHWGHPDQGDQGFRQVXPHUEHKDYLRXU
7KHUHLVDQHHGIRUPXFKEHWWHUPRQLWRULQJDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHOLQNVEHWZHHQ
,&7GULYHQSURGXFWLYLW\JDLQVODERXUFDSLWDODQGHQYLURQPHQWDODQGWKHDFWXDO
HQYLURQPHQWDOSHUIRUPDQFHRILQGXVWULDOLVHGHFRQRPLHV7KH2(&'FRXOGSOD\
DPDMRUUROHLQJHQHUDWLQJDIUDPHZRUNIRUPRQLWRULQJDQGDQDO\VLQJWKHVH
FKDQJHVSURYLGLQJPXFKQHHGHGHPSLULFDOHYLGHQFHDQGSURYLGLQJDQ
LQWHUQDWLRQDOSHUVSHFWLYH,WVHHPVOLNHO\WKDWPDQ\RIWKHLPSDFWVRI,&7VZLOO
EHQDWLRQDOO\UHJLRQDOO\DQGORFDWLRQVSHFLILF7KLVGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQPXVWDOVREH
FRQVLGHUHGLQGHYHORSLQJSROLF\UHVSRQVHV
VII. References
$WODQWLF&RQVXOWLQJ/&$VWXG\RIWKHSURGXFWJURXSSHUVRQDOFRPSXWHUVLQWKH
(8(FRODEHOVFKHPH/RQGRQ0DUFK
%HUNKRXW)$JJUHJDWHUHVRXUFHHIILFLHQF\$UHUDGLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVSRVVLEOH"
,Q9HOOLQJD%HUNKRXWDQG*XSWDHGV0DQDJLQJD0DWHULDO:RUOG.OXZHU'RUGUHFKW
%HUNKRXW)HWDO6XVWDLQDELOLW\&RPSHWLWLYHQHVVDQG7HFKQLFDO&KDQJH
6&27&+)LQDO5HSRUWWRWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ6358%ULJKWRQ-DQXDU\
%HUNKRXW),QIRUPDWLRQDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV)XWXUHV'UDIW5HSRUW
6358%ULJKWRQ
&DLUQV6+RPH'HOLYHU\RI(OHFWURQLF6KRSSLQJ7KHHQYLURQPHQWDO
FRQVHTXHQFHV(65&7UDQVSRUW6WXGLHV8QLW8QLYHUVLW\&ROOHJH/RQGRQ
&R\OH'7KH:HLJKWOHVV:RUOG6WUDWHJLHVIRU0DQDJLQJWKH'LJLWDO(FRQRP\
0,73UHVV%RVWRQ
&RKHQ1*UHHQLQJWKH,QWHUQHW7HQ:D\V(&RPPHUFH&RXOG$IIHFWWKH
(QYLURQPHQWDQG:KDW:H&DQ'RL03DWZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHU
YDQ'UXQHQ0DQG$$2OVWKRRUQ(QYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVRIWKHFRPSXWHU
LQGXVWU\,9098:RUNLQJSDSHU:$PVWHUGDP
(DPHV0-+HUWLQ)%HUNKRXW5+DZNLQV(WRSLD"6FHQDULRVIRUD'LJLWDO
)XWXUH)LQDO5HSRUW%ULJKWRQ'HFHPEHU
(FRQRPLVW:KDWWKH,QWHUQHW&DQQRW'R$XJXVWZZZHFRQRPLVWFRP
(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ$JHQF\(3$3URILOHRIWKHHOHFWURQLFVDQGFRPSXWHU
LQGXVWU\2IILFHRI&RPSOLDQFH
(VW\'&,QIRUPDWLRQ$JH(QYLURQPHQWDO3URWHFWLRQ2(&'2EVHUYHU0D\
*RVVDUW&5HYLHZRIWUDGHHQYLURQPHQWOLWHUDWXUH6358%ULJKWRQ
+LOW\/0DQG7)5XGG\7RZDUGVDVXVWDLQDEOHLQIRUPDWLRQVRFLHW\
,QIRUPDWLN,QIRUPDWLTXH
+RSNLQVRQ33-DPHVDQG-6HOZ\Q7KH(QYLURQPHQWDODQG6RFLDO,PSDFWRI
7HOHZRUNLQJSDSHUSUHVHQWHGWRWKHWK(XURSHDQ&RQIHUHQFHRQ7HOHZRUNDQG1HZ
:D\VRI:RUNLQJ$DUKXV'HQPDUN
+RSNLQVRQ3DQG3-DPHV9LUWXDOWUDIILF²ZLOOHFRPPHUFHPHDQOHVVWUDQVSRUW
DQGPRUHVXVWDLQDEOHORJLVWLFV"5HSRUWIRU¶'LJLWDO)XWXUHV·SURMHFW8QLYHUVLW\RI
%UDGIRUGDQG8.&(('1RYHPEHU
,($:RUNVKRSRQ6WDQGE\/RVVHVZZZLHDRUJVWDQGE\
,QIRUPDWLRQ6RFLHW\7HFKQRORJLHV,67&DVH6WXGLHVRIWKH,QIRUPDWLRQ6RFLHW\
DQG6XVWDLQDEOH'HYHORSPHQW%UXVVHOV
.HOO\+,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\DQGWKH(QYLURQPHQW&KRLFHVDQG
2SSRUWXQLWLHVL03DWZZZFLVSRUJLPSRFWREHU
/HDGEHDWHU&0LQGRYHUPDWWHUJUHHQLQJWKHQHZHFRQRP\*UHHQ$OOLDQFH
/RQGRQ
/RER,DQG0=DLUL&RPSHWLWLYHEHQFKPDUNLQJLQWKHDLUFDUJRLQGXVWU\
%HQFKPDUNLQJ
0DUNHU7-DQG.*RXOLDV$5HYLHZDQG)UDPHZRUNIRUWKH$QDO\VLVRI
+RXVHKROG5HSOHQLVKPHQWDQGLWV,PSDFWRQ7UDYHO%HKDYLRXUDQG*RRGV0RYHPHQW
3HQQV\OYDQLD7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ,QVWLWXWH8QLYHUVLW\3DUN3HQQV\OYDQLD
0DWWKHZV6+&7+HQGULFNVRQ//DYH+RZPXFKGLG+DUU\
3RWWHUFRVW"2(&'2EVHUYHU3DULV)HEUXDU\
0DWWKHZV+67KH(QYLURQPHQWDO,PSOLFDWLRQVRIWKH*URZWKRIWKH
,QIRUPDWLRQDQG&RPPXQLFDWLRQV7HFKQRORJ\6HFWRUSDSHUIRU(QYLURQPHQW
'LUHFWRUDWH2(&'3DULV0DUFK
0LQLVWU\RI3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV0377RZDUGVXVWDLQDEOHJOREDO
HQYLURQPHQWE\PHDQVRILQIRUPDWLRQDQGWHOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQSDSHUWR0LQLVWHURI
3RVWVDQG7HOHFRPPXQLFDWLRQV0D\
1HJURSRQWH1%HLQJ'LJLWDO9LQWDJH%RRNV1HZ<RUN
1(5$0RWRUVDQGPRGHPV1DWLRQDO(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFK$VVRFLDWHV/RQGRQ
2(&'D,QIRUPDWLRQ7HFKQRORJ\2XWORRN3DULV
2(&'E(FRPPHUFHLPSDFWVDQGSROLF\FKDOOHQJHV(FRQRPLFVGHSDUWPHQW
ZRUNLQJSDSHUVQR
5RPP-7KH,QWHUQHW(FRQRP\DQG*OREDO:DUPLQJ&HQWHUIRU(QHUJ\DQG
&OLPDWH6ROXWLRQV:DVKLQJWRQ
7UDQVSRUWHQ/RJHVWLHN1HGHUODQG7/11LHXZHZLMQLQRXGH]DNNHQ7/15HVHDUFK
-XQHZZZWOQQO
6FKUH\HU37KHFRQWULEXWLRQRILQIRUPDWLRQDQGFRPPXQLFDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\WR
RXWSXWJURZWKDVWXG\RIWKH*FRXQWULHV67,:RUNLQJ3DSHU2(&'3DULV
YRQ:HL]VlFNHU(8$%/RYLQV/+/RYLQV)DFWRU)RXU'RXEOLQJ:HDOWK²
+DOYLQJ5HVRXUFH8VH(DUWKVFDQ/RQGRQ
:(5&:DUHKRXVH,QYHQWRU\7XUQRYHU:DUHKRXVLQJ(GXFDWLRQ5HVHDUFK
&HQWHU0LDPL8QLYHUVLW\2KLR
:LOVGRQ-HG'LJLWDO)XWXUHVOLYLQJLQDGRWFRPZRUOG(DUWKVFDQ/RQGRQ