The first hundred days Welfare Education Public services and the deficit Health The first hundred days / Reform Contents Reform is an independent, non-party think tank whose mission is to set out a better way to deliver public services and economic prosperity. We believe that by reforming the public sector, increasing investment and extending choice, high quality services can be made available for everyone. Our vision is of a Britain with 21st Century healthcare, high standards in schools, a modern and efficient transport system, safe streets, and a free, dynamic and competitive economy. Introduction and overview The first hundred days Summary of transcripts 4 5 8 Reforming welfare A new welfare agenda Local solutions and the Big Society A new welfare settlement The unemployment challenge Transcript 16 19 21 23 25 27 Schools for the future The state of education Supporting quality teaching Raising the bar Education for less Transcript 56 59 61 63 65 66 Reducing the deficit and improving public services Improving public sector productivity Public sector management A new era: the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the government Government as commissioner not provider? Transcript 106 109 111 113 115 117 Delivering a new health agenda NHS: new health services Managing the budget Healthy competition Transcript 154 157 160 163 166 Reform 45 Great Peter Street London SW1P 3LT T 020 7799 6699 [email protected] www.reform.co.uk www.reform.co.uk 3 Introduction and Overview / Reform Introduction and Overview / Reform Introduction and Overview The first hundred days The change in government and the challenges posed by the economic and fiscal environment have unleashed a ferment of ideas and discussion. Reform, an independent and non-party think tank, wanted to bring together many of the people who matter in the first 100 days of the new Government to get a sense of where the Government is and, more importantly, to engage and discuss what to do on a number of fundamental questions. Over three weeks in June and July Reform hosted conferences on welfare, education, the deficit and public services and health. Around 600 senior delegates, from across the UK and abroad, from politics, public service, business and the third sector, and representing all major political parties, listened to and debated the presentations of around 60 senior speakers and panellists. Key political speakers are listed opposite (in speaking order). The events provided the chance to hear the views of a range of leading figures and organisations and, in turn, provided these people with the opportunity to receive questions directly from a range of delegates. Booklets containing short think pieces from speakers and other commentators were published with each of the four conferences. Presentations and question and answer sessions at each of the conferences were recorded. This report contains copies of the agendas of each of the four conferences, the booklets that accompanied them and the transcripts of the discussions. To set the scene for this material this report first contains an assessment of the new Government’s first 100 days and a summary of the transcripts. This report will form part of Reform’s submission to the Government’s spending review. Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform 4 www.reform.co.uk Key political speakers included: (in speaking order) Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Douglas Carswell MP, author of The Plan: Twelve Months to Renew Britain Steve Webb MP, Minister for Pensions Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Rt Hon Lord Knight of Weymouth, former Minister of State for Schools and Learners Nick Gibb MP, Minister of State for Schools Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General Bernard Jenkin MP, Chair, Public Administration Select Committee Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP, Chair, Public Accounts Select Committee Hon Sir Roger Douglas MP, New Zealand Finance Minister 1984 to 1988 Cllr Colin Barrow CBE, Leader, Westminster Council Dr Phillip Lee MP, Member of Parliament for Bracknell Simon Burns MP, Minister of State for Health Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell MP, Chair, Health Select Committee Rt Hon Lord Warner of Brockley, former Health Minister While the milestone of 100 days is not new – US presidents are still measured against the progress made in 100 days by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 – it is important. A poor start can create the impression of a government of novices. A good one can provide a new government with critical momentum. In some ways the first 100 days should be amongst the easiest of a new government. It has the chance to start from scratch and to make changes with there being a full Parliamentary term before the next election (assuming that it lasts the distance). In other ways the challenges are greater with the government needing to establish new working relationships and develop a detailed understanding of the task ahead. The first 100 days not only involves the public getting to know the new government but the new government getting to know its job. Given the long-term consequences of many policy decisions 100 days is early to take score. Rather than easily measurable short-term achievements what is important about this period is whether the government has begun to establish its long-term vision (how it will redraw the borders of the state).1 This is not a short process and, as President John F Kennedy noted in his 1961 inaugural address, “will not be finished in the first 100 days. Nor will it be finished in the first 1,000 days, nor in the life of this administration, nor even perhaps in our lifetime on this planet.” But it needs to begin. The coalition has stated that reducing the deficit is its most important task. The emergency Budget introduced by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon George Osborne MP, made a start by signalling the intention to eliminate the structural deficit, of 7.4 per cent of GDP in 2010-11, within the term of a Parliament. Achieving this goal will require tough spending choices yet delay would make fiscal consolidation harder as interest payments on debt and the costs of unreformed programmes and entitlements would continue to rise. Countries like New Zealand, which went from a large deficit to running surpluses in three years, and Canada in the 1990s, where the process took four years, have shown moving quickly means that the government stops accumulating debt and is able to begin the task of repaying debt sooner. As Rt Hon Paul Martin, former Canadian Finance Minister and Prime Minister, noted in his foreword to Reform’s alternative Budget, “because [their] cuts were sharp and deep they worked – the vicious circle turned virtuous and the positive payback was not long in coming.”2 Yet the measures announced in the emergency Budget left the real drivers of government spending unaddressed. They set out to simply trim existing budgets. Rather than withdrawing benefits from people on middle and higher incomes the Child Benefit was frozen. Rather than introducing a link between pay and performance public sector pay was frozen too. As Hon Ruth Richardson, a former New Zealand Finance Minister, who also contributed a foreword to the Reform Budget, noted, “imposing a lid on increases in public spending, eliminating waste, and salami-slicing existing budgets tend to be the politicians’ stock answer, but none of these approaches go to the heart of the problem.”3 Without reform the growing costs of entitlements in areas like pensions and health could bankrupt the country over the coming decades, with the cost of benefits to pensioners alone being set to increase by £12 billion by the end of the term of this Parliament.4 www.reform.co.uk 5 Introduction and Overview / Reform On this the coalition has made some major mistakes: the increase in the long-term cost of pensions by linking increases in the state pension with earnings, failing to adequately address the cost of middle class welfare, and the pledge to increase the NHS budget regardless of its efficiency or productivity. Restoring the link between the core state pension and wages would increase the cost of pensions by £21 billion (in today’s money) by 2050. Yet over 40 per cent of the welfare budget is already spent providing support for pensioners at a cost of around £80 billion a year. Even before the recent change in policy these costs were forecast to increase by £162 billion by 2050.5 It has been argued that bringing forward the already planned increase (from 2026 to 2016) in the retirement age will address these costs but this is not correct. Costs will be higher in the period up to 2016 and after 2024, when the pension age will be back on its current trajectory, any cost savings will be minimal.6 The Government remains in denial over the need to amend the pensions system. This denial will cost younger generations dearly.7 On welfare for working-aged people the Government has set out an agenda of reform to reduce poverty through emphasising “Big Society” not big government, while Frank Field has begun a review of poverty and opportunity. Making progress on this agenda requires focussing on reducing the mobility blocks contained in the benefit system and improving educational outcomes for the poorest. This also requires seizing local initiative and innovation and moving the welfare system from the economics of redistribution to the economics of growth and mobility. Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP set out proposals for a comprehensive reform of the welfare system. The goal is to replace 51 benefits with a single and flexible allowance.8 It has been claimed that this reform would allow people with jobs to retain more of their benefits and ensure that people who work will always be better off than people on benefits. While introducing proposals for simplification of welfare is common among new governments around the world little tends to come of these proposals. This is because of their inherent problems: 6 www.reform.co.uk • Fiscal cost is one with, for example, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions having had reportedly clashed with the Chancellor of the Exchequer over the price of these proposals. Lowering taper rates to make work more rewarding could mean that more people receive more generous assistance – meaning costs go up. While fiscal cost could be reduced if the government is willing to reduce the generosity of assistance to some families there are questions over whether the coalition will have the political will to create losers in this way. • Fairness is another problem as a consequence of a simpler system is that some differences in people’s circumstances will no longer be taken into account when assessing assistance. Further, the complexity of many families’ living arrangements, and how these arrangements change over time, mean that no government ever has managed to achieve the goal of ensuring that work pays more than benefits for everyone and at every time. The areas of welfare spending which provide lowest value for money, such as middle class welfare in the form of the universal Child Benefit and pension gimmicks such as the Winter Fuel Allowance, free TV licences and bus passes, have remained unreformed. Improving the targeting of spending would make the welfare system stronger and more just. Experience shows that poorly targeted spending leads to less generous support for poor families. Even a small increase in the generosity of a universal programme comes at a very large financial cost, meaning resources have to be spread thinly and less is available for poor families.9 Although spending on middle class welfare is expensive and represents poor value for money the coalition has been, aside from a few relatively small programmes such as the Child Trust Fund, reluctant to require well off families to take greater responsibility for themselves. Introduction and Overview / Reform After welfare, health is the second largest area of government spending and accounted for 40 per cent of the increase in inputs across the whole public sector between 1997 and 2007. The NHS budget has, however, been ring fenced. Protecting the NHS budget in this way will lead to greater cuts in other departmental budgets and will insulate the health service from the pressure to make savings. This will mean that opportunities to save money and improve health outcomes will not be taken and that the service will fail to confront the need for fundamental reform to address the growing cost of healthcare due to the increasing costs of drugs and technologies and changes in health needs (such as an increasing incidence of diabetes). The Government has set out a plan to radically reorganise the NHS. The ambition is to tear down current administrative structures and put GPs in charge of around £80 billion of the budget. But the details of the White Paper mean that the NHS will remain centralised rather than decentralised. The Secretary of State for Health would remain accountable for the performance of the NHS, as in previous years. It will remain a system in which Ministers instruct the bureaucracy to make the system deliver patient choice, instead of a system based on choice itself. Further, by choosing to reorganise the service, rather than grasp the nettle on how health services are financed the Coalition has missed a real opportunity to reform the NHS. An honest debate is needed on how health services are funded. Other European countries have faced the need to consider the greater use of co-payments and user charges, to define a core set of services that the public system provides and to encourage the greater role of insurance. It is time to catch up with these international debates.10 On education policy the new Government has made encouraging steps in its early days, freeing more schools from local authority control, allowing parents to set up new schools and giving heads more freedom over curriculum and teachers’ pay. These changes alone will not create great schools for the future. But teachers and parents have a rare opportunity to take advantage of the reforms that are currently being introduced. If they can seize this chance to reshape the education system English schools could do more to help those most in need and to build the future the country needs and its children deserve. Yet to secure the future of the English education system a number of key questions still need to be answered. Should there be a “core” in the education system followed by all pupils – and if so, what should it be?11 How can quality teaching best be supported and how can schools improve the quality of teaching? How can the massive bureaucratic overhead, in both central and local government, be made transparent and then reduced in order to release the resources needed to fund greater choice? Without good public sector management it will be difficult, if not impossible, to develop and implement sustainable long-term reforms. Reform has spoken to good managers in the public sector. They are acutely conscious of costs to the taxpayer and want to be held personally accountable for performance. But they do this despite the system not because of it. Accountability to the users of services to local electorates or to Ministers will improve management and performance. Yet Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, the Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General, has argued for more decisions, especially on procurement, to be more rigorously controlled from the centre. This fails to address the real problem at the heart of the Civil Service – lack of accountability – and will shield officials from taking personal responsibility for their actions and draw Ministers into delivery.12 The approach that should be taken, as argued by Sir Roger Douglas, another former New Zealand Finance Minister, at Reform’s conference on Reducing the deficit and improving public services, should be to end the notion of a civil service career as being a “job for life,” introduce contracts that hold civil servants to account for the outcomes of their work and provide them the freedom to get on and do their jobs free from excessive political interference. As Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP, Chair of the Public Accounts Select Committee, also noted at the Reform conference on Reducing the deficit and improving public services, one of the features of a good reform process is the government acting consistently to maintain credibility. However, while the coalition has committed to a public spending review which will be completed by 20 October 2010 and which will supposedly generate a once in a lifetime debate on the role of government, the credibility of this review has already been undermined by the ruling out of difficult changes, such as scrapping free school milk, and the floating of poorly thought out ideas, such as replacing university tuition fees with a graduate tax. Of the “100,000 ideas” submitted to the spending review by members of the public and public sector workers, the coalition has chosen to highlight ideas such as encouraging volunteers to form teams of “civic gardeners” to reduce the demand for council staff. This will not address the drivers of public spending, such as the increasing costs of pensions and health. Further, the approach of the coalition to encourage civic activity, particularly in the third sector (Big Society), is far from fully-formed with there being many questions around financing and the framework for contracting providers. Without more clarity the question will be asked whether Big Society reflects, as Stephen Bubb of ACEVO noted in the Reform conference on Reforming welfare, truly involving voluntary organisations “in a way that simply hasn’t been seen since the War” or a “charade.” It will be important to encourage voluntary and profit making organisations in the provision of welfare to work services given the outlook for the labour market. The early effect of the recession was largely confined to the private sector, with many private sector workers losing their jobs or facing reduced terms and conditions of employment. The private sector labour market is now strengthening and the recession is moving to the public sector. In this public sector recession it will not be possible to significantly reduce spending while failing to reform front line services. This is an opportunity as if public services are to improve radically then the front line needs to change.13 Yet this will require making some honest and difficult choices, such as reconfiguring health services to reduce over-reliance on hospital beds.14 This will also require substantial growth in private sector employment, which needs the business environment to be more supportive of growth. To support growth the tax system needs to be more stable and consistent and based on the principles of broad based and low rate taxation. This requires broadening the VAT base, as recommended by Reform and the OECD, rather than increasing taxes on the most mobile segments of the tax base, such as high income workers and the financial sector.15 Rather than just being an opportunity to develop a list of cuts the spending review should be seen as an opportunity to have an honest debate on how to curb the over-reach of the state and what the future state should look like. While the coalition may have looked busy so far, that is not a measure of effectiveness. As Sir Roger Douglas noted at the conference on Reducing the deficit and improving public services when faced with a large structural deficit it is vital that politicians start with the right questions. The principal question has to be what policies would be in the interests of the nation. Only once this question has been answered should the question of how these policies could be sold to the electorate be considered. Otherwise the reform process will begin from a position of compromise and the chance to undertake sustainable reform will be lost. Footnotes 1 B assett et al (2010), Budget 2010: Taking the tough choices, Reform, Section 9: Redrawing the borders of the state. 2 B assett et al (2010), Budget 2010: Taking the tough choices, Reform, Foreword. 3 B assett et al (2010), Budget 2010: Taking the tough choices, Reform, Foreword. 4 B assett et al (2010), Budget 2010: Taking the tough choices, Reform, Section A: Welfare. 5 B assett et al (2010), Budget 2010: Taking the tough choices, Reform, Section A: Welfare. 6 P PI (2010), PPI Submission to the DWP’s State Pension Age Review, Pensions Policy Institute, London. 7 R eform and IPSOS Mori (2008), A New Reality: Government and the IPOD generation. 8 R t Hon Iain Duncan Smith (2010), 21st Century Welfare, Department for Work and Pensions. 9 C awston et al (2009), The End of Entitlement, Reform. Reform estimated that the cost of middle class welfare amounts to around £31 billion per year. This is a conservative estimate and was based on a threshold of “middle class” that accounted for differences in household sizes and costs. 10 Bosanquet et al (2008), Making the NHS the best insurance policy in the world, Reform. 11 Bassett et al (2009), A new level, Reform. 12 Haldenby et al (2009), Fit for purpose, Reform. 13 Haldenby et al (2009), The front line, Reform. 14 Haldenby et al (2010), Fewer hospitals, more competition, Reform. 15 Bassett et al (2010), Reality check: Fixing the UK tax system, Reform. www.reform.co.uk 7 Introduction and Overview / Reform Summary of transcripts This report contains copies of the agendas of each of the four conferences, the booklets that accompanied them and the transcripts of the discussions. Summaries of the transcripts follow. These summaries draw out key themes raised by speakers and do not include all points raised. Readers are encouraged to read these summaries with the full transcripts of the conferences. Reforming welfare This conference included a keynote address from Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, and sessions on local solutions and the Big Society, a new welfare settlement and the unemployment challenge. In his welcoming remarks Michael Smyth CBE of Clifford Chance noted that while there is an emerging consensus over the need to reform welfare, important questions remain unanswered. Questions he raised included how do we achieve reform while protecting the weakest and most vulnerable? How does the rhetoric around the establishment of a Big Society lead to the reality of jobs and dignity and hope? How do we transform a system designed to defeat Beveridge’s five giant evils into one fit to serve a modern economy in the 21st Century? As he argued, “So the challenges are therefore great: income inequality at its highest since records began, more working-aged adults living in poverty than ever before and over a million on benefits for nine or more of the last ten years. But so too are the prizes in all this: a society with social justice and mobility [and] a welfare framework that has justice at its core.” 8 www.reform.co.uk In his keynote speech Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP stated that “we are now past the time when we can think the unthinkable. [This] is absolutely the time to do the things that we think are necessary.” He identified that the Government’s welfare reforms have two phases. • Phase one includes housing benefit reform and the new Work Programme, which includes plans to get people who can work off incapacity benefits. • The second phase involves reforming the benefit system to make work pay, simplifying the system to make it more efficient and understandable, enhancing mobility, and reforming the pension system. The Secretary of State noted that reform should set out to reset the balance of incentives as at present the poorest in society see little reason to take the risk of finding a job and losing their benefits. As he argued “there is nothing big about a society which seems content to let a growing number of people become dependent on the state and live without work, aspiration or hope.” Concerns that the current welfare state is not working were also shared by Douglas Carswell MP. He argued that this reflects the fact that the welfare system is based on an approach of universal provision achieved by a highly centralised model presided over by a remote technocracy. Introduction and Overview / Reform He emphasised that rather than centralised, universal welfare there is a need to look to localised provision, as this would encourage pluralism, innovation and accountability. As shown by the USA’s 1996 Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act, a greater focus on localism would make welfare work better and make better citizens. Localism would, as he argued, transform attitudes and encourage the spread of best practice. Stephen Bubb of ACEVO predicted that the Work Programme would fail if it is simply an “efficient supply chain sausage machine and if it does not significantly involve charities and social enterprises and other third sector organisations in a way that simply hasn’t been seen since the War.” We need to encourage a whole raft of community organisations and national charities who are not currently involved in providing work programmes. As he noted, “The Big Society is not about the state withdrawing, it is about what David Cameron describes as a smart, strategic state, but if Big Society turns out to be the state retrenching, cutting back, withdrawing and leaving us to pick up the pieces, it will be a charade.” David Ellis of Catalyst discussed how “community organisations can actually build a bigger society” and some of the challenges that they face in the work that they do. He noted the costs of not acting – that the cost of educating a child from 11 to 14 costs the average London borough £4,300 per year, that if a child is excluded from mainstream school this increases to £9,000 a year, in a young offenders’ institute this rises to £52,000 for a year and to £100,000 a year in prison. He argued that we need to learn how to build programmes around mentoring and tailor them to specific and local needs of young people in the communities. The challenge is, he argued, “to make this Big Society happen in a big way.” Sally Burton of Shaw Trust identified that while the third sector can play an important role it cannot play the role of the organisations that bring the large amounts of working capital needed for the Work Programme to the table. As she noted, why would trustees of charities want their organisations to put significant amounts of resources up front on a payment by results regime when they may not be able to guarantee getting that money back because of factors beyond their control? The third sector “can play a huge bridging role but we cannot play the role of the organisations that bring the huge levels of working capital that are needed for the Work Programme to the table.” Professor Julian Le Grand, when introducing the third session, noted the potential growing unaffordability of the welfare state. Life expectancy has increased by three months in every year since the Beveridge Report was written and one in four children born today will live to be 100 years old. While this is, ultimately, a good thing it does create challenges for the healthcare system, social care system and pensions. “In all of these things we are going to have to consider how meeting these needs is going to be financed and provided for, in that, we are probably going to have to consider various ways of mobilising the private sector resources as well as public sector ones.” Steve Webb MP argued that addressing these costs of population ageing requires both a single, fair, decent and understandable foundation for people on which to build and for individuals to be encouraged to take responsibility for themselves. He argued for a policy direction heading towards flat rate provision and emphasised the Government’s commitment to the principle of automatic enrolment and to reviewing the state pension ages. He also highlighted the need to encourage greater levels of savings with “probably more than half the workforce now [not] saving significantly for their retirement.” He concluded that “the role of the state is not to remove the need for individual responsibility [….] What we need is a complementary system, the state playing its part with a firm foundation and then something on which people can build so when they save they know they are going to be better off and they can save with confidence.” Tim Breedon of Legal and General noted that the insurance sector has the capacity to play a greater role in risk sharing. Much of the work that insurers do overlaps with that of government – and the insurance sector can help reduce the welfare bill in two ways: • Private cover, either funded directly or through employers, which can provide necessary funding for families in the event of bereavement, critical illness or unemployment, reducing the risk of those individuals falling back onto the state. • The second way is by transferring cover from the state to the private sector. He noted that the addressable risk market has been estimated at £340 billion in the UK and of this the private sector covers just 35 per cent. Shifting the balance by 5 percentage points to the private sector would take some £17 billion off DWP spending. Andrew Harrop of Age UK noted that there are a lot of people on inactive benefits in their 50s and early 60s, and it is necessary to see welfare reform through the prism of people in their mid-50s onwards who have been out of work for a long time. He argued that success at getting the over 50s back into work should be a major factor when increasing the retirement age is considered. “If we cannot work with people detached from the labour market in their early 60s up to 65 then we need to think very carefully before increasing the pension age to 66.” Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, struck a note of caution over the risks of long-term unemployment following the recession and fiscal consolidation. She highlighted the risk that the private sector job growth expected in Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts will not happen. “In the 1980s, youth unemployment rose for four years after the recession finished and that was when the real damage was done in terms of the kind of long-term unemployment that actually scarred the whole nation for many generations.” She also noted that while the rise in unemployment during the recent recession was lower than expected this reflected changes in the wider economy, the work that firms did to keep hold of labour and also the work of Jobcentre Plus. She argued that while the New Labour welfare reforms were relatively successful in supporting lone parents into work, the reform of sickness benefits should have started earlier. David Banks of G4S Care and Justice Services noted that the challenge for funding the DEL-AME switch (when contractors are paid back out of the benefit savings they achieve) largely reflects the challenge around getting the risk-balance right. There is little understanding over how much it costs to help a long-term Employment Support Allowance claimant into work (how long this may take and what levels of sustainability may be achieved over a three year period). With this uncertainty around cost and confidence of outcomes for client groups it is difficult to justify up front funding. The DEL-AME switch needs to look like an investment not a gamble. For this reason he supported a discovery phase to the Work Programme. “A discovery phase period that properly shares risk and reward between prime contractors and the state would generate the data needed to erode the uncertainty which currently makes up much of the risk in this market.” Chris Melvin of Reed in Partnership also noted that innovation needs to be based on learning from best practice. He argued that the creation of a single programme (the Work Programme) should not only simplify support to job seekers but could allow providers to bring a much broader range of services to bear in a much more cost effective way. There are, however, still many questions to be answered around the contracting framework. There is a need to be simple about the funding mechanism and to be simple about the way we measure success. “I would urge one word of advice on Ministers and civil servants engaged in the development of the Work Programme. [….] Let’s be simple […].” Janet Daley of The Sunday Telegraph highlighted the need to alter the political culture in which welfare problems are discussed. She noted that logic that being self-supporting and responsible for your own life and your loved ones, which was a normal expectation of adult existence, has been lost. Not only is work the best route out of poverty but it is the normal condition for grown-ups. She argued we have confused protecting the poor with protecting poverty – so that the poor become a fixed entity, an immovable tranche of the population who must be protected, must be looked after, must be supported, must be treated as permanently vulnerable when in fact poverty should always be, especially in a reasonably dynamic economy, a temporary condition. “Somehow we have to break through this notion that we are actually protecting people who we are supporting by refusing to allow them to become, or creating disincentives for them to become, independent and self supporting.” www.reform.co.uk 9 Introduction and Overview / Reform Schools for the future This conference included a keynote address by Nick Gibb MP, the Minister of State for Schools, and sessions on the state of education, supporting quality teaching, raising the bar and education for less. Paul Woodgates of PA Consulting Group argued that history is littered with great ideas for educational reform that have been poorly executed. He argued for a greater focus on implementation and how we can turn great ideas into real practice that make a difference in classrooms. He noted that implementation is challenging because, in the recent past, there have essentially been two approaches to delivering government policy on educational reform: • The first was, broadly speaking, to throw money at it, which will no longer be feasible given the context of the public finances. • The second was for central government to define a set of rules and targets and guidance and frameworks that cascade down through the system. But if we are now talking about decentralisation – about localism and empowering schools – then centrally-driven change does not make any sense. Camilla Cavendish of The Times noted how educational outcomes are polarised between the frontiers of knowledge (e.g., universities creating patents and amazing technological ideas) and between those kids falling through the cracks, and between the independent sector and the state sector. She also noted that the many issues we face in the education system come back to teaching. If “we can be more open about who we take into teaching, if we can see it as a flexible profession – and maybe, controversially, if we can have teachers have more control over the curriculum – we might get a better product.” 10 www.reform.co.uk Professor Francis O’Gorman of the University of Leeds argued that there is “quite a serious problem with expectations about independence of thought and I think that comes from a regime of high – if not over – assessment. The setting of hoops to jump through tends to produce among good students people who are very good at jumping through hoops, rather than somehow thinking a little bit more broader than that.” As Professor O’Gorman noted “the real transformative effect of education – comes through attempting that which is challenging and succeeding – or partially succeeding – or, at any rate, doing better than we had thought. And, in order for that to happen, I do think that we need space for students to be able to make mistakes […] rather than being relentlessly pursued by the dark shadow of ‘assessment’ all the time.” Professor Dylan Wiliam of the Institute of Education emphasised that it is “teacher quality not class size that matters” and that “[class size] reduction programmes generally lower teacher quality. When you reduce class size you need more teachers and, when you need more teachers, you tend to train them quickly and let in people who should not have been let in.” The key is to get the cleverest people in the country to want to be teachers. The framework for reform also needs to be tight but loose – reforms have to be loose enough to be able to adapt into settings that are different from the ones that were envisaged. But reforms should not be so loosely articulated that they lose their effectiveness when implemented. Rod Bristow from Pearson UK noted that in an environment where everybody is demanding more from the educational system a teacher has to have a “good understanding of the needs of the students in front of them, to know where they are in their learning, for the whole class but for the individual learner as well.” Indeed, if you were to bring a teacher from 100 years ago into the future the job would be largely unchanged – “they’d be standing at the front of the class and doing whole class teaching.” Data and technology can transform teaching. It could allow greater learning-by-doing, so students are not just told whether they are right or wrong, but why. It could also allow many more worked examples than could ever be possible in a textbook. Introduction and Overview / Reform We should not lose sight of the fact that, as Professor Sir John Holman of the National Science Learning Centre noted, the really important thing about what goes on in schools is teaching subjects well. As he argued, in general, good teaching of a particular subject requires the teacher to know their subject. With all else equal, subject specialists are more effective, particularly if they are up to date with their subject and the ways of teaching it. Developing subject specialists requires a focus on recruitment, which has been helped by the economic conditions, and training those teachers who are already in place through providing continuing professional development and great experiences. The issue of pupils’ evaluations of teaching was discussed by Professor Judy Sebba of the University of Sussex. She noted that pupils are ongoing consumers of teaching and that schools that seek pupils’ evaluation of teaching on a regular basis and train pupils to evaluate sensitively improve the quality of their teaching considerably. She also highlighted the need to provide accessible, synthesised and robust evidence for teachers. Accessible evidence and a licence to experiment, with ongoing feedback from pupils and properly implemented coaching, will improve the quality of teaching. As Rt Hon Lord Knight argued the success of the child is to a large degree subject to the quality of parenting, so the discussion should not just be limited to teaching. On teaching, however, he also noted the need to consider more flexible practices such as having more than one teacher in larger, more flexible spaces. With the right design this would have the opportunity to create much more engaging, more personalised learning. Technology allows education to be undertaken in a more engaging and exciting way and if the education system does not grasp these opportunities then it will miss a massive trick for the country as a whole as well as the children who live here. Nick Gibb MP highlighted the coalition’s goal to make it easier for parents, for teachers and for education providers to set up new schools so that there is real choice in every area. He highlighted the responsibility that the Government has to ensure high standards, that schools have the responsibility to promote an ethos of excellence and aspiration with opportunities for extra curricular activities and sport, and pupils and their parents to ensure that their behaviour at school is of a standard that delivers a safe and happy environment where children can concentrate and learn. He argued that the state’s failure to provide enough good schools is socially unfair and economically damaging. He argued that there needs to be a greater focus on teaching children to learn, particularly acquiring knowledge and concepts. With this in mind he emphasised restoring the National Curriculum to its intended purpose – a core national entitlement organised around subject disciplines. Amanda Spielman of ARK Schools noted that many children are being prematurely steered towards vocational and quasi vocational qualifications. Intellectual development is not the same in every qualification and most, not all, vocational qualifications add very little to pupils’ intellectual development, so they are limiting those individuals’ horizons unless they happen to be directly relevant to a career path that the individual wants to follow. While there are some policies in schools that try and establish academic paths as the default and that students should be advised carefully before moving off them, for change to truly flow through users of qualifications, employers and universities need to be much more open and honest about what they value. Ros McMullen of the David Young Community Academy argued that interacting intelligently with knowledge is what education is about. The choice is not between academic and vocation at all – what is needed is to work with local employers and university admissions departments and to get the curriculum right. As she argued, “I believe that interacting intelligently with that knowledge is what education is about [….]. It seems to me that people who are entrepreneurial and intelligent and wealth-makers are what our society, what our world, needs. God knows we need our next generation to be real problem solvers.” Professor Deborah Eyre of the University of Oxford highlighted some of the factors that characterise systems that produce high performing students. She noted that these systems tend to have high expectations for all and to mean it, they avoid polarisation (“the idea that this is right and this is wrong”), they learn from others and they are pragmatic and realise that some things will work in some circumstances and not in others. As she argued, in the UK “we spend an inordinate amount of time trying to work out which people are going to go in which direction because ultimately we genuinely believe that only a few of them can be really successful, unlike many other countries where they start with the much more optimistic assumption which is to say that with this new generation of young children coming through, better fed, better educated, better supported than in many other generations, we should be able to do better.” Simon Lebus of Cambridge Assessment discussed how qualifications can be part of the solution in raising the bar rather than part of the problem. He noted a number of challenges in developing qualifications, including the need to think seriously about the regulatory regime, and to trust professionals, reduce bureaucracy and extend choice. He highlighted that a key challenge in developing qualifications is that we have a very diverse population. “Humanity comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes, pupils come in all sorts of shapes and sizes and trying to put them through a single door, trying to put them down a single track is not an appropriate thing to do. What we ought to be doing is offering a diverse range of different routes, a diverse range of different qualifications, and I think that we need to create a system that encourages that.” Shaun Fenton of Pate’s Grammar School argued that “we’ve seen all the benefits we can get from just putting more and more money in education and now we can take advantage of the opportunities to look at it in a different way.” He noted that there were many opportunities for doing more for less, including reducing the compliance burdens on schools created by Ofsted, moving away from national pay scales and making greater use of evidence based teaching and learning, as opposed to government initiative teaching and learning. He also noted the need for a culture change, as there “is a danger in education that […] where things need to be improved, the intervention is measured more by the quantity of the support that a school gets rather than the impact of that support.” Dale Bassett of Reform noted that while the per pupil spending is now double in real terms the level that it was in 1997/98 the school system is not twice as good. Reasons for this failure to secure proportionate improvements in performance that he identified included policy makers’ obsession with visible spending and mission creep in the role of schools. On the first issue he noted that it “is all about inputs, it has nothing whatever to do with outputs and the two big areas in which this is manifested is staff and buildings.” On the second issue he noted that the “amount of stuff that schools have responsibility for now I think is beyond most people’s comprehension.” Steve Beswick of Microsoft argued that a reduction in spending does not necessarily mean a reduction in quality, depending on how you spend the money. On this he highlighted three areas: the contribution that schools can make, the contribution that industry can make and the contribution that government can make. However, he noted that “there is very little work being done in schools around how IT can save costs the same way a business would and I think that’s something that has to be looked at.” Simply viewing information on IT systems rather than photocopying it would, for example, make significant savings as in many schools the photocopying bill is higher than the IT budget. Chris Davies of Tribal argued that the subject of schools’ resources has not been particularly high on the priority list in terms of discussions around education and that what we have seen is “a culture amongst many schools that this is something that they don’t particularly have to focus on.” He noted that there has not been a lot of “grit around financial accountability for schools” and that the “period that we are about to go into is going to be hugely challenging for an awful lot of school leaders.” He noted that there are many ways that schools can save money, but as 80 per cent of school budgets go on staffing reducing workforce costs is clearly going to have to be an area to address. The challenge in making savings is, as he noted, “alongside all the inspirational heads […] there are a lot who will struggle with this sort of thing and as the Department withdraws into the centre and as local authorities start to wither on the vine, who’s going to help those schools deal with these things in a meaningful way so they don’t damage outcomes?” www.reform.co.uk 11 Introduction and Overview / Reform Reducing the deficit and improving public services This conference included a keynote address from Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General, and sessions on improving public sector productivity, public sector management, a new era – the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the government, and government as commissioner not provider. In his keynote speech Rt Hon Francis Maude MP highlighted how the government is spending £4 for every £3 in revenue just to keep the lights on, the pensions paid and teachers in schools. He argued that there is a need to be more realistic about what it is possible to do in the centre of government – particularly given recent experience which has not only shown that the idea that there is a state solution for every problem is not true, but that in many cases the insistence that there is a state solution has made problems worse. He noted that in his role as the Minister for the Cabinet Office he has a concern with clarity about what the centre of government does and that reforms need to strike a “lose-tight” balance: where some things are rigorously controlled from the centre (such as procurement of those things which are common across government to force down costs) and everything else should be pushed away from the centre. His view was that responsibility for the delivery of services should be put as near as to the people who use the services you can get and that government agencies could be flatter and disencumbered from some of the burdens of compliance. Bernard Jenkin MP, the incoming Chair of the Public Administration Select Committee, highlighted the need to not only root out existing inefficiencies but to also rethink the way that the public sector is expected to operate. Increasing public sector productivity has moved from being a luxury talked about at conferences to an absolute necessity. In improving productivity encouraging innovation will be even more important than reducing inefficiency. He also noted that government agencies should be flatter. There are just six layers of management between Sir Terry Leahy and the Tesco cashier but, he asked, how many layers of management are there in the National Health Service? 12 www.reform.co.uk As Aidan Connolly of Sodexo UK & Ireland argued, if you are going to make cuts you should make them quickly and deeper than you think because, in the long run, having to go back and do it again it is incredibly damaging. To deliver transformational changes the government needs to work out how it commissions and how it provides, and then how to coordinate across the two. Barriers to doing this in a cost effective way include the government’s cultural inertia and the presence of a tick-box system which aims to ensure that everybody is covered should a decision go wrong. The final result is a risk avoidance contract rather than a contract for outcomes. Barriers to effective commissioning also include inconsistency in procurement skills across government and an inability to spread best practice across departments, and a risk that governments see value for money simply as procuring the least for the lowest. The pace with which a budget surplus can turn into a deficit was highlighted by Colm McCarthy, Chair of Irish Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure. He noted that if the interest rate moves against you this does not only affect the cost of fresh borrowing but the cost of whatever borrowing you have to roll over every year. Further, increases in the number of people out of work puts upward pressure on government spending and downward pressure on revenue. Downward pressure on revenue is amplified when a country relies on tax bases that are heavily cyclical – such as VAT on new house sales and capital gains tax on non-residential properties. In dealing with a deficit, Colm McCarthy highlighted the importance of picking the right battles. As he noted “[politicians in Ireland] haven’t shown a shortage of bottle, but they have rationed out their bottle very carefully.” It is unrealistic to expect politicians to spend capital on saving a million here and two million there, when they are trying to save billions more on big issues. He also noted problems caused by ring fencing the health budget and major parts of the welfare budget. The advantage of not ring fencing is that you are proofed against accusations that you are picking on people. Introduction and Overview / Reform Drawing parallels with 1981, Alan Downey of KPMG argued that “we run a risk if we simply find ourselves replaying the rhetoric of the 1980s […] we will fail to take the steps that we desperately need to take in order to tackle the problems that we face.” Without tackling the ingrained inefficiency of current arrangements the problems we face today will simply recur. He also noted that we risk losing sight of why we deliver public services in the first place – they are not simply there for the interests of the people who provide the services. Further, in contrast to the way we interact with many businesses – including travel companies, high street banks, retailers and the music industry – the way that we interact with public services such as the justice system and community health services has changed relatively little over the last ten years. John McTernan, a former Political Secretary to Tony Blair, highlighted the potential for both reducing costs and improving services as, by and large, it costs less to provide quality services than it does to provide bad services. He noted the reluctance to reorganise services like the police and fire service, as these are areas where there is the need for a huge political commitment to reform. He also put the planned reductions in spending in context, and noted that even if we remove the amount of money we are looking at we will only be returning spending to the level of 2004-05. The barriers to change created by a poor culture of performance management were discussed by Michael Izza of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW). He cited their survey responses which showed that senior financial managers believe that cuts can be made in spending while protecting front line services. Further, financial managers do not only believe that savings could be made, but that the scale of possible savings is significant. However, managers feel that the most important thing needed to support efficiency improvements in the public sector is political support, especially from Ministers. A working culture which fails to encourage financial awareness within departments also needs to be addressed. Finance cannot be relegated to a subsidiary function. That more inputs do not necessarily translate into better outcomes was highlighted by Tony McGuirk QFSM, Chief Fire Officer, Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service, who noted that while nobody spent more or had more fire fighters per head than in Merseyside you couldn’t find anywhere in the western world that was less safe. The service had high costs per head, poor working practices, a poor reputation and industrial relations issues. This service was turned around over ten years through reducing the number of fire fighters – down from 1,550 in 1991 to 850 now – while maintaining the number of fire stations and engines. Headcount was reduced through reducing sickness absences, dismissing people who were not performing and improving criteria for hiring new staff. A greater focus was also placed on preventing fires, rather than just responding to them. The service changed – it visited every single home, fitted smoke alarms and provided fire stations as resources for the community. Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP, Chair of the Public Accounts Select Committee, noted that it is one thing to talk about a smaller state and changing public expectations but it is another thing to realise this, especially when there are changes in society which may demand increases in expenditure. The obvious example is an ageing society, which will have implications for pensions and health and social care expenditure. She also noted the dangers of rash decisions made for quick and populist headlines, the question mark over ring fencing health expenditure, and the need to guard against unintended consequences of decisions (where cuts taken in one area may lead to increased expenditure in another). She argued that a good reform process would involve government measuring the impact of their spending decisions, acting consistently to maintain credibility and not just cutting but seeking efficiency measures, sharing best practice, ensuring that revenues are collected and reforming public services. The need to address staffing costs as a part of a reform process was also highlighted by Julie Spence OBE QPM, Chief Constable of the Cambridge Constabulary, who noted that 83 per cent of her budget is staff. She noted the need to take care when pursuing amalgamation as a route to saving money – as some of the biggest forces in the country spend more per head of the population on the service that they deliver than some of the smaller forces. She also raised a note of caution around handing over budgets to the private sector until the public sector has squeezed everything out that is possible. There must also be emphasis on making the reform agenda fit the evidence base. Her services did not measure performance against the targets that politicians actually set to avoid the risk of “hitting targets but missing the point.” Good managers know you should not just have one single top down measure. You have to have a whole range of them. Hon Sir Roger Douglas MP, a New Zealand Parliamentarian and former Minister of Finance, argued that it is vital that politicians ask the right questions. Too often politicians start with the question what can I sell to the public? What policy can I put into place that the public may accept? But, he noted, this is the wrong question – it will inevitably bring about the wrong result and will not satisfy the public in the end. The right question to ask is what should we do in the interests of the nation and only then should you ask the question how the policy should be marketed to the public. You may have to modify the policy in the light of the second question but failing to ask the first question first means the reform process will start from a compromised base. He argued that the New Zealand experience with reform in the 1980s and 1990s showed that wherever a quality decision was made then those decisions survived but whenever decisions were half measures the government got into trouble and there is still major political debate. He also noted the consensus for quality decisions does not arise until they are made and implemented so a government has to do it and trust themselves. Sir Roger Douglas highlighted the importance of the three Cs: consistency leads to confidence, and confidence leads to credibility. Allister Heath of City A.M. identified that to a major degree the poor state of the public finances reflects the large increase in government spending so far this century, with the UK moving from being one of the low spending to one of the very highest spending countries in the OECD. He also noted that the increase in taxation and government revenue as a share of GDP over this period has been much lower. The link between spending and taxation has been broken. He argued that as the economy is near the limit in the tax burdens that it can bear, restoring the public finances will require cutting public expenditure as a share of GDP. This cutting can be done in two ways – the first is across the board cuts and the second is restructuring spending, so that, for example, people face more of the costs of the services they consume or that services are provided privately not publicly. Failing to reform the public sector or to redraw the boundary between what is paid by the government and what is paid by individuals would be a missed opportunity, as the government would simply be trying to squeeze an unmanageable and unworkable system. Cllr Colin Barrow CBE, Leader, Westminster Council, discussed the recent decision to merge his education authority with that of Hammersmith and Fulham, which was expected to bring savings of 20 per cent, and two key issues regarding commissioning. The first was that there are decisions that you cannot outsource, such as political decisions. You have to delegate schools’ performance, for example, but holding schools to account has to be done by politicians. Separating the world into those things that belong to politicians and those things that do not is an important and central component of the exercise in commissioning. The second was the importance of a local perspective. He noted that in Westminster the Council spends £200 million and the public sector spends £2 billion. While issues like a road, a school, a child with disabilities and social problems like policing, drugs or alcohol are very local issues, they are commissioned in or provided into Westminster by Whitehall. Yet what is done closer to the client is normally not only more attuned to the client’s needs but also more efficient. www.reform.co.uk 13 Introduction and Overview / Reform Paul Pindar of the Capita Group noted that effective commissioning requires measuring improvements in service quality, providing contractual certainty regarding cost reduction and looking at how services can be run to create a wider economic benefit beyond simply saving. He also noted that outsourcing over the last 25 years in the UK has generally been a success and gave the example of the Teacher’s Pensions Agency, which provided cost savings, a better service for customers, and genuinely enriched the careers of people that transferred over to the private sector. However, further gains could be made by changing the culture of the public sector and also improving the ways in which procurement is undertaken. On the relationship between providers and commissioners, Amyas Morse, Comptroller and Auditor General, National Audit Office, noted that there is an imbalance because there is not enough commercial leverage or strong enough incentives for commissioners to control providers. They do not pay by results for the most part. He also noted weaknesses between direct commissioning and planning, failure to effectively manage processes between relationships, commissioning leading to a loss of economies of scale, lack of knowledge and evidence, decisions to commission not being based on hard evidence, lack of data and analysis, failure to make best use of data that already exists or obtaining data that is needed, lack of quality management, and recommissioning services from providers who have a record of under delivering. Finally, he noted that if we are going to have a lot more contracting we have got to make sure that the terms are right and that there is tough commercial thinking when it comes to contracts. John Fingleton, Chief Executive, Office of Fair Trading, argued that the issue of reducing the deficit and improving public services is essentially an exercise in trying to de-monopolise the public sector. We know from private sector experience that when monopolies are removed quality and efficiency often improve. Yet the big question is how to remove public sector monopolies in practice. It is necessary to avoid simply substituting a public sector monopoly for a private sector one. To make competition work in practice we need to allow new entrants to drive innovation and allow incumbents to exit (failure regimes). Consumer choice is also essential as this can play an important role in ensuring that the market delivers what the customer wants in driving competition. Finally there needs to be a level playing field between private and public organisations providing public services. 14 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda This conference included a keynote speech from Simon Burns MP, Minister of State for Health, and sessions on new health services, managing the health budget and healthy competition. In his introduction to the conference Andrew Manning of Bevan Brittan noted that healthcare is facing many of the same changes and challenges as other industries, and could thus learn from these other examples. He also argued that to deliver reform leaders in the NHS and the health industry need to carefully manage the process of change. As he noted, “people’s desire and ability to change [is] going to depend on the attractiveness and the ability of the status quo compared to the attractiveness of the new model. The people will think, well what is the cost of getting there? [….] Have we got a map to get there and have we got the leaders we want to follow together?” Dr Phillip Lee MP, the newly elected Member of Parliament for Bracknell and practicing GP, highlighted the need to de-politicise the provision of healthcare. “I know that’s not actually possible, but it would be nice if we could take the politics out of healthcare because I suspect the healthcare that would be provided would be different if politicians were not involved.” He noted the challenging future for all healthcare systems due to changes in health need (such as rising rates of diabetes) and costs, and made the case for a reconfiguration of services. As he argued, “people view where their hospital is as being their blanket, their safety blanket, it’s where they think they’re going to be looked after the best, and the reality is that isn’t the case always.” He argued that fewer big centres of excellence along with a network of community hospitals would allow the better management of patients with chronic conditions and delivery of more care closer to home. He also noted that patients must be encouraged to not only exercise greater choice but take more responsibility for their own care and their treatment. Introduction and Overview / Reform Sophia Christie of Birmingham East and North Primary Care Trust argued that while our default position is often to see hospitals as the NHS the reality is that the majority of healthcare activity takes place outside the hospital. Hospitals, which are a 19th century medical technology, are no longer capable of delivering much of the care modern populations need. As she noted, “Why do I have to travel up to a hospital, either taking two or three buses or struggling to find car parking in order to have a 15 minute interaction to tell me that I’m ok, when I could get some bloods taken in the community?” She also noted that reconfiguring service provision away from hospitals requires confronting vested interests in the NHS, “the way the system is currently set up incentivises 1948, not 2008,” and understandable public anxiety about changing the infrastructure of the NHS. Cynthia Bower of the Care Quality Commission also discussed the challenges of service redesign and argued that more must be done to strengthen the position of the patient and their carers in the system. It is important to genuinely engage patients in decision making and to empower patients through the system to make more effective changes. This requires thinking a lot more about advocacy and support for people in doing that. It is also important to take a more holistic approach to people’s problems, and to never make too many assumptions about who the biggest users of care are and who we need to focus on. She stressed that better patient pathways, and the integration of health and social care, could significantly improve the performance of the health services. Sam Lister from The Times put the recent White Paper into its financial context and noted that a much more integrated system is vital. He highlighted the challenges of effectively engaging GPs in the challenge of improving productivity and in managing multi-million pound budgets. He argued that with a change programme as radical as that proposed in the White Paper “people are going to need their hands held, people are going to need to be guided. It is going to take years of close monitoring and channelling to be able to get that through.” He also highlighted the challenges around the reconfiguration of services as we “do not need as many DHGs [district general hospitals], and DHG in the sort of Tory lexicon has been a pretty protected species up to now.” In his keynote address Simon Burns MP argued that the reforms proposed in the White Paper would create a NHS focused on quality, value and outcomes. He also argued that these reforms would deliver a radical shift in power to patients and professionals, a focus on outcomes (not inputs) and outputs, and replace targets with quality standards. He noted that when “GPs are commissioning services they will be able to do so, where appropriate, from any willing provider. This will introduce a new level of competition […] within what will become the largest social market in the world.” The Minister also highlighted the goal of reducing layers of management on the NHS, which the Government has argued could deliver a 45 per cent reduction in management costs, and noted that the Government “will not go down the path of paying for healthcare or an insurance system.” The newly elected Chair of the Health Select Committee, Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell MP, discussed the three challenges facing the NHS: the need to deliver value for money, to deliver better quality and to ensure clinical consistent outcomes and make healthcare more responsive to patient needs. He noted that the “challenge is how to deliver the value for that money that has already been committed and to which the Government is committed to continue that level of funding.” He argued that properly empowered commissioning is the best way to deliver these goals and claimed that a central failure of healthcare policy over the last 20 years has been to realise the potential of commissioning. Improving commissioning will ensure that the necessary reconfiguration of services, integration of health and social care and development of patient pathways can be delivered efficiently, particularly for patients with long-term conditions. Roger Taylor of Dr Foster Intelligence began by making the point that while the debate is still often framed as if it is a quality versus money saving agenda this tension can be resolved through a focus on measuring quality of care and outcomes. He noted that “it is simply not about the data any more. We know what the issues are; it’s how we turn it into action.” He argued that, in terms of addressing this, the current move towards GP consortia could help through ensuring that there is a clear locus of responsibility for information, the care of the patient across the pathway and the use of the budget. He also argued that moving forward requires better information about GP consortia, rather than just hospitals, and patients to be at the centre of the information revolution in the NHS. Dr Nicolaus Henke, from McKinsey & Co, noted that governments across the OECD have postponed tackling the growing costs of healthcare over the last 60 years but the need to deliver value for money is now more urgent than ever before. He noted three big questions on the healthcare budget: how urgent is it to tackle it? Where is the money? What kind of mindset (or approach) do you want to pursue? He then discussed five key approaches for tackling the costs of healthcare: budget discipline to control costs, deferring responsibility and cost to the patient, focus on cutting “back-room” costs, encouraging innovation in the delivery of care by “disruptive entrants” and ensuring there are incentives to drive productivity in the service. Professor Alan Maynard of the University of York highlighted that many of the same problems of excessive clinical variations and weak commissioning face both public and private health systems, and that proposed reforms such as reconfiguring hospital services bring trade-offs in either economies of scale or competition. The question is, he asked, “Which do you want? Economies of scale or competition?” He also noted that the “White Paper is almost a blank paper in the sense that we really don’t know what the entry and exit strategies are and we are unclear what the incentives are.” This raises the importance of evidence and data, and what incentives there are for data to be used. As he noted, “it’s the incentives stupid, that’s what is going to make or break the current White Paper.” Leading the session on competition in healthcare, Rt Hon Lord Warner began by stating that competition on its own is not the solution to all problems facing the NHS. However improving competition between providers can encourage the NHS to change. As he argued, “Competition is about challenge. It is about people who are doing things well being able to take on wider responsibilities in the NHS.” Yet the recent experience with extending competition in the NHS has been “stuttering” due to weaknesses in the commissioning process and the political challenges around the effect of competition on local health services. He questioned whether increasing the number of commissioners through the introduction of GP consortia would improve competition. In his remarks, Steve Bundred, the Chair of Monitor, began by noting that the “NHS is enormously grateful for the degree of protection it’s been given for spending cuts and other sectors are very envious of it.” He also noted that the outcomes from the health sector are not as good as other OECD countries and that despite the health budget being ringfenced there is a need for efficiency gains to be made. He argued for a more serious approach to having a market based system in the NHS, but for this to happen two things need to happen. First, the system design needs to be right, and this requires the unresolved issues of the White Paper, such as the role of the economic regulator, to be settled. Second, and this is vital, there needs to be a shift in culture in the NHS. Mark Pearson of the OECD highlighted that the international evidence on the impact of competition in health systems healthcare is varied, with different countries having quite different experiences. The experience of the choice of purchasers in the Netherlands, however, suggests that this encouraged prices to go down and the quantity of services to increase. He also noted, however, that this could indicate supplier-led demand. Finally, he expressed a certain amount of disappointment in the approach of the new government. As he argued, it’s not that he thinks “that moving to GP contracting is a bad idea […] it’s just that I am not sure that this is the area that matters most in health services. [….] The UK has been very good at being very, very innovative, in developing new ways of running the health service but it has still not actually picked up in trying to be innovative in how we actually pay for care services. We are still trapped in this model of we pay primary physicians in one way, hospital services in another way, and social care in another way.” As the last speaker of the day Adrian Fawcett, Chief Executive of General Healthcare Group, welcomed the White Paper for setting out a new approach to competition, choice and decentralisation but noted that the White Paper only looked at the NHS in isolation. He argued that there is a need for an intelligent partnership between the public and private sectors and that the challenge in the short run is to “use what we have currently got a lot better than we do in order to make sure that the efficiencies come through for the benefit of the health sector in total.” He also noted that, in the face of rising costs and increasing demand, a feature of this could be for people to take more responsibility for themselves to generate new sources of income aside from the taxpayer. www.reform.co.uk 15 Welfare / Reform Reforming welfare / Reform Programme Reforming welfare Local solutions and the Big Society A new welfare settlement The unemployment challenge With speakers including Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP, Steve Webb MP, Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP, Douglas Carswell MP, David Banks, Tim Breedon, Stephen Bubb, Sally Burton, Janet Daley, David Ellis, Andrew Harrop, Chris Melvin, Michael Smyth CBE and Professor Julian Le Grand 16 www.reform.co.uk 08.30 – 09.00 Registration and breakfast 09.00 – 09.30 Welcome and introduction Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Michael Smyth CBE, Partner, Head of Public Policy, Clifford Chance 09.30 – 10.00 Keynote speech by Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP A keynote speech by Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, on the new welfare agenda 10.00 – 10.50 Local solutions and the Policies to encourage social mobility and end welfare dependency have moved to the centre of Big Society the political debate. The Government has set out an ambitious agenda to restore civil society and reduce poverty. This requires a new approach to delivering welfare that draws on local initiative and local expertise to deliver innovative solutions Douglas Carswell MP, author of The Plan: Twelve Months to Renew Britain Stephen Bubb, Chief Executive, ACEVO David Ellis, Group Director of Business Development and Marketing, Catalyst Housing Group Sally Burton, Chief Executive, Shaw Trust Chair – Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform 10.50 – 11.40 A new welfare settlement There is a growing demand for public-private partnerships in delivering welfare. In welfare systems throughout the world new insurance products are being introduced to cover risks that have previously been covered by the state. Is there now an opportunity to transform the entitlement state and encourage more people to make their own provision for the risks they face? Steve Webb MP, Minister for Pensions Tim Breedon, Chief Executive, Legal & General Andrew Harrop, Director of Policy and Public Affairs, Age UK Chair – Professor Julian Le Grand, Richard Titmuss Professor of Social Policy, London School of Economics 11.40 – 12.00 Coffee 12.00 – 12.50 The unemployment challenge How can the UK reduce the rate of long-term unemployment? All political parties recognise the value of innovative private providers and the need for greater conditionality of out-of-work benefits. But a more comprehensive reassessment of the structure of welfare provision is needed. Reducing long-term unemployment and the social and fiscal costs of welfare requires a new approach Rt Hon Yvette Cooper MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions David Banks, Group Managing Director, G4S Care and Justice Services Chris Melvin, Chief Executive, Reed in Partnership Janet Daley, Columnist, The Sunday Telegraph Chair – Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform 12.50 – 13.00 Closing remarks 13.00 – 13.30 Lunch Reform will sum up and close the conference www.reform.co.uk 17 Reforming welfare / Reform Reforming welfare / Reform A new welfare agenda The Reform team – setting the agenda Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Eliminating the deficit will be the defining issue of this Parliament. The Emergency Budget put the cost of welfare at the heart of these efforts. The government spends more on welfare than anything else. The bill for “social protection” is now approaching £200 billion. Left unreformed these costs will become crippling with the cost of benefits to pensioners alone set to increase by £12 billion by the end of the term of this Parliament. Failing to get to grips with this while total government spending is falling will mean much deeper cuts to other departmental budgets. Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform Lucy Parsons, Senior Economics Researcher, Reform There is scope for reducing the costs of welfare without compromising other policy objectives. Much welfare spending does not provide value for money. The UK is spending at European levels for poor American results. Although it has one of the most expensive welfare systems in the world, the UK faces rising income inequality, low levels of social mobility and poor outcomes for children. Poor quality spending, not a lack of spending, is the problem. Welfare reform should set out to not only save money but to support employment and social mobility. The Government has set out an ambitious agenda to reduce poverty through emphasising Big Society not big government, while Frank Field has begun a review of poverty and opportunity. Progressing this agenda requires focussing on reducing the mobility blocks contained in the benefit system and improving educational outcomes for the poorest. This also requires seizing local initiative and innovation and moving the welfare system from the economics of redistribution to the economics of growth and mobility. But reforming assistance to the poorest families should only be a part of a reform agenda. Improving the targeting of spending would make the welfare system stronger and more just. Experience shows that poorly targeted spending leads to less generous support for poor families. Even a small increase in the generosity of a universal programme comes at a very large financial cost, meaning resources have to be spread thinly and less is available for poor families. 18 www.reform.co.uk Thomas Cawston, Researcher, Reform Kimberley Trewhitt, Researcher, Reform The desire to use welfare to attract votes means that benefits for middle class voters become more generous while poor families are left with scraps. Transfers to working families now account for nearly twice as much of the welfare budget as transfers to families out of work. Improving welfare and sorting out the debt will require wealthy families to take greater responsibility for themselves. As the Bank of International Settlements has demonstrated, it is the cost of welfare, as well as healthcare, which will largely determine the future state of public finances. The UK is no exception. The Emergency Budget announced policies that would move people off benefits and restrict entitlements, while the Department for Work and Pensions now intends a faster rise in the retirement age. But will these savings be enough to cut the deficit and make the growing costs of welfare sustainable? Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP and Steve Webb MP The case for fundamental reform In the run-up to the recent Budget, the Prime Minister laid bare just how urgently we need to get the country’s finances in order so that we can stimulate economic growth and get Britain back to work. However, there was a strong case to be made for radical welfare reform long before Britain was plunged into recession and facing unprecedented levels of national debt. The fact is that for too long we have had a welfare system that actively disincentivises people from seeking work – the most sustainable and effective route out of poverty. At the same time, we have inherited a pensions system that has allowed the value of the state pension to dwindle while adding more complexity for those claiming it. Not only that, but private pension provision is in desperate need of reinvigoration and millions are failing to save enough to fund the retirement they want. The legacy of the last Government’s failed regime lies all around us. Across the country, entire communities are blighted by inter-generational cycles of welfare dependency and endemic poverty and today there are more than five million people on working age benefits and 1.8 million pensioners living in poverty. That is why fundamental reform of the welfare state is crucial. Not just for the taxpayer who has had to shoulder the financial burden of these failing policies, but also for the worst off in society who find themselves without a clear path out of poverty. Now is not the time for tinkering around the edges of reform, but for fundamental change. That is why we are re-thinking our entire approach to welfare. A new Work Programme will provide the unemployed with the tailored support they need to get into long-term, sustainable work. Just as importantly, we will simplify our complex benefit system so that we re-establish a clear link between work and reward for the poorest, as well as reducing the opportunities for fraud and error. We will apply the same principles to pensions, by developing a fairer, simpler system that people can build on with confidence. The “triple guarantee”, which ensures that the basic state pension will increase by the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent, provides the first solid step in this direction. We will also reinvigorate occupational pensions and encourage personal saving through automatic enrolment into pension schemes and we will simplify the myriad of other rules and regulations that tie up pensions. Equally, we will reappraise the assumptions we make about older people in society – not writing them off, but making the most of their skills and experience. That is why it is important to phase out the default retirement age, empowering those people who want to continue working with the freedom to do so. This is how we will help the poorest and create a fairer Britain where we balance rights and responsibilities and stimulate economic growth, as well as building a welfare system that is fit for the 21st century. Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Steve Webb MP, Minister for Pensions Dr Patrick Nolan Welfare reform that works Reforming welfare is one of the hardest – but most important – challenges facing the Government. Any reforms will face difficult tradeoffs. They will need to chart a course between providing support to people in need while ensuring they do not become too dependent on state support. Unemployment and demographic changes will push up costs while large savings will be needed to address the deficit. Delivery will have to be simpler and easier for the public to interact with, while efforts to encourage more innovative and diverse providers will mean more, not less, variation in how people are treated. The ways in which these tradeoffs are reconciled will largely determine the success or otherwise of the Government’s welfare reform agenda.Yet these tradeoffs are not new. Nor are they unique to the UK. There are many previous and overseas examples of welfare reform that provide important lessons. www.reform.co.uk 19 Reforming welfare / Reform These include: Save money through cutting entitlements that are poor value for money: Although having one of the most expensive welfare systems in the OECD the UK’s system is one of the worst performing. This mismatch between inputs and outcomes reflects the poorly targeted nature of much welfare spending – with around £31 billion going to wealthier households. Savings that could be made in this area dwarf savings that could be made in other parts of the welfare budget. These savings could be made without compromising the living standards of poorer families. Decide where the poor incentives should go: The only welfare system that is free of poor incentives, such as poverty traps and marriage penalties, is one that provides no transfers at all. Even universal transfers discourage labour supply and lead to higher tax rates.Yet as all real world systems require transfers to be provided the crucial questions are how poor incentives can be kept to a minimum and how their economic and social harm can be reduced. This requires judgement on whether emphasis should be on ensuring every family has at least one worker attached to the labour market or whether second earners in couples should be encouraged to work. How assistance and entitlement vary with the age and number of children also requires judgement. Simplify old programmes, do not add new ones: Many problems facing the welfare system reflect the complex interaction of the maze of welfare programmes. Many programmes have been developed and reformed in isolation and contain complex, conflicting and confusing rules. In the UK previous efforts to address these problems, especially the disincentives to work they create, have emphasised the provision of new forms of assistance, such as employment tax credits.Yet layering new programmes onto an already complex maze 20 www.reform.co.uk increases the welfare mess and makes the problem worse. Reducing disincentives and complexity requires simplifying old programmes, not adding new ones. The limits to what can be achieved through welfare transfers also need to be recognised. Often the more effective approach is to reform other areas, such as education or regulation of the labour market. Deliver welfare in different ways: The UK has a heavily centralised welfare system.Yet understanding the long-term interest of welfare recipients often requires local information, such as the conditions of local labour markets or efforts that people make to find work. In recent years some moves have been made to better employ local knowledge, through greater public-private partnerships, but transforming the delivery of welfare also requires handing over the power to set some benefit rules. Increasing the requirement for individuals to prepare for their own future, through the use of insurance or personal protection accounts, can also transform the delivery of welfare and encourage people to make decisions in their long-term interest. Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform Reforming welfare / Reform Michael Smyth CBE Welfare reform and the new politics migrate from welfare to work. Our view is that that transition must be managed in a way that optimises social mobility and ensures that no one gets left behind. We are delighted to be hosting today’s conference which aims to address these issues and pay tribute to Reform and its Director Andrew Haldenby for conceiving it. There could surely be no more trite observation regarding the state of the UK public realm than to say that the next few years will be difficult. Of that, few citizens appear to be in any doubt. The same is true of those they elect. It was indeed a noteworthy feature of the 2010 General Election that all the principal political parties accepted the need for fiscal constraint and retrenchment. Few if any mainstream politicians deny that the nation’s deficit and debt burden need to be substantially reduced. On this score at least, the Government and Opposition appear divided not by ideology but managerial approach: not so much a question of “whether” but rather “how”. But if it is agreed that “we cannot go on like this”, how do we genuinely ensure that “we are all in it together”? The five giant evils identified by Beveridge of squalor, ignorance, want, idleness and disease have not disappeared but their extirpation needs to be paid for. Can the post-War welfare state settlement any longer be regarded as fit for purpose when there are so many more of us living longer and protective of benefits universal in nature? Clifford Chance has an interest in these matters, much like its clients. The firm’s headquarters are in east London, within the borough of Tower Hamlets, which has one of the youngest and fastest-growing populations in the UK, a high proportion of unemployed graduates and enduring levels of poverty. Private institutions like mine have their own role to play in assisting our neighbours to Michael Smyth CBE, Partner, Head of Public Policy, Clifford Chance Local solutions and the Big Society Douglas Carswell MP Local welfare The welfare state is not working. Billions of pounds are spent each year on supporting millions of people, yet rather than alleviating poverty that money is helping to sustain it. More than 50 years after the introduction of universal welfare provision, today more households depend on some form of welfare than at any time in our history. The problem is that the British welfare system, built on the model of universal provision, is highly centralised, and presided over by remote technocrats.There is little scope for pluralism, or innovation, and almost no pressure to seek better ways of alleviating poverty. Both Labour and Conservative Governments have tried their hand at welfare reform, but none of the steps they have introduced has significantly cut levels of welfare dependency. This is because the one policy change they have not tried has been to devolve control over welfare from central to local government – a change which when implemented overseas has reduced both poverty and welfare spending. It is time to break with the principle of universal provision, and to localise control over welfare. This would involve: • Replacing the principle of universal provision, on which the welfare state was founded, with the principle of localised welfare provision. • Providing welfare and social security budgets not through national agencies (as at present) but through local county and metropolitan authorities. • Transferring control and accountability for how welfare is provided within the communities they serve to locally elected councillors. • Enabling local, not central, authorities to commission charities and other bodies for welfare work. • Enabling and encouraging different town halls to offer different levels of welfare support, using variable criteria for assessing need. Douglas Carswell MP, Member of Parliament for Clacton and author of The Plan:Twelve Months to Renew Britain Spending on welfare has grown far and fast and is unaffordable in the face of demographic pressures like population ageing. Previous efforts to manage the costs of welfare have focussed on creating an “enabling state” but rather than delivering a smaller and smarter government this has encouraged less focussed and ever-increasing spending. A new approach to delivering welfare is needed that empowers individuals and harnesses the potential of local solutions and social enterprises. This requires curbing the ambitions of government and redefining the boundary between the state and individual responsibility. The state cannot do it all – individuals and communities must play a central role in creating a Big Society. Stephen Bubb Civil society – a solution to longterm unemployment It has been all too easy to see the big story relating to unemployment as being the number of people out of work as a result of the recession. But there is another story just as pressing: the millions of people who have been unemployed for years, sometimes generation after generation, who suffer the results of long-term unemployment at great cost to the public purse and who are not able to contribute to society to their full potential. Over the past decade and more, the state has tried to help them into work. Despite some marginal successes, it has largely failed. The problem remains. Where the state has failed, civil society (third sector organisations like charities and social enterprises) can succeed in partnership with the state. Rooted in communities, civil society organisations can do what the state finds so hard: inter-generational support, support built around families and individuals, support that cuts across the silos of state delivery and addresses people’s problems in the round. Unlocking the third sector’s potential to solve the problem of long-term unemployment must be central, then, to David Cameron’s cross-governmental drive to build a Big Society, to revitalise civic life and to deliver more public services through the third sector. In welfare reform, that will mean having a clear underlying ambition to leave no one behind and a resultant focus on the harder to help. Creating an environment in which third sector organisations (no matter what their size) are able to contribute must also be a priority. So, for instance, we must have a powerful and well-capitalised Big Society Bank and a strong Social Investment Business to enable third sector organisations to deliver by raising capital. If moving to payment by results; we must have payment mechanisms that reward providers for getting the most difficult clients into work. We must also have a state prepared www.reform.co.uk 21 Reforming welfare / Reform to intervene to ensure that partnerships or subcontracting arrangements between providers are based on the interests of jobseekers and taxpayers, not on those of larger providers. Long-term unemployment is a scourge on our society. Where the state has failed to solve it, the third sector can. As part of building a Big Society we must now work together, state and third sector, to design a system that enables that to happen. Stephen Bubb, Chief Executive, ACEVO David Ellis Where Big Society is already working Big society is already happening – for many housing associations across the UK, it is what we do. The best housing associations work at a grassroots level, building communities with and for the people who live in them, supported by central government. We know our local communities and customers and are already delivering the “big stuff” to them in a way that they can use. But it is imperative that we get the balance right. If we go too local, we risk turning into a bunch of parish councils, fussing around the edges of things, not seeing the big picture. If we go Big Brother command and control, we lose the energy, the innovation and the sensitivity that delivers a local solution for the local problem. Central strategy needs to set the local free – not crush it. There are many housing associations embedded in our communities holistically delivering and adapting the national agenda to local needs. Housing associations are the forerunner of Big Society. For 22 www.reform.co.uk two centuries we have been at the forefront of entrepreneurial philanthropy, tackling poverty using a powerful synergy of charity and enterprise. Big names like Rowntree and Bourneville, the Peabody Trust and Guinness, backed by cash and a moral purpose, spontaneously took on poverty in the UK. They weren’t told what to do and how to do it – they just did it. Here at Catalyst we go beyond housing, challenging gang culture, creating innovative ways to get people off housing waiting lists, delivering the NHS and other support to people who are the most marginalised in our communities. We have started to cut the housing waiting list in the London borough of Westminster by focussing our time and resources of understanding the problems at a very local and tailoring the solution to the local and individual need. It is a new project, but we expect see a 10 per cent drop in waiting list applicants. Innovative partnerships have been formed, bringing the NHS to marginalised communities who can not easily access health services, improving their healthcare and saving cash through prevention rather than cure. And we have cut crime on some of our estates by up to 38 per cent – saving millions for the tax payer in prisons and court costs alone. This is Big Society – local solutions harnessing local knowledge to national need and resources. It works. Moving the poorest and most vulnerable, who conversely can be the most expensive in our society, to being active participants in a productive economy, rather than part of the contribution to the deficit, is a goal that is being realized and delivered already. Our challenge is to keep listening and keep adapting to what we see at a local level and to co-ordinate better on a national stage to bring about tremendous change. David Ellis, Group Director of Business Development and Marketing, Catalyst Housing Group Reforming welfare / Reform Sally Burton Trust in the Big Society Thousands of charities and social enterprises, big and small, stand ready to deliver a more responsive range of public services, involving volunteers to help forge new styles of public involvement. However, we are also deeply concerned about doing things well, and being measured by the impact we make. As Chief Executive of Shaw Trust, a charity with 28 years experience in helping disabled and disadvantaged people to gain employment, skills and independence, I am committed to ensuring that the Big Society is big enough to leave nobody behind and to place the most disadvantaged and excluded at the centre of the system. I want the Big Society to be about everyone, not those who shout loudest. A strong society and a strong state are not mutually exclusive. A strong state should not be a monolithic provider of services but it does need to be clear about purpose, equity, outcomes, safety and the wise use of resources. There are several tensions in the government’s emerging strategies. The Work Programme is welcomed for its approach to investing more in those furthest from work. However, the financial model could mean that organisations that work within communities, supporting the hardest to help, may be unable to compete, reduced to “sub contractor status” and excluded from implementing the model of service which they know to be effective. How do we ensure that Big Society doesn’t just mean Big Business, but means harnessing local knowledge and energy and integration of services at the front line? What about the idea of charities running local services? Of course many already do have huge council contracts. However, I am keen to see a combination of service delivery and social enterprise. One example is the horticultural enterprises run by charities which could extend and manage parks and other public spaces, employing disabled people and engaging volunteers. However, in the drive for efficiencies, councils have awarded ever bigger contracts to large national organisations and may not be able to break them down to stimulate local commissioning and delivery. How should we counter the shift to ever bigger contracts with the need to involve local people in designing and delivering services? We all recognise the profound change that is upon us in this economic climate. Politicians and managers realise that they have a long way to go to restore public trust. On the whole, charities have that trust. Many can use this as a positive force to lead a renaissance in local involvement, and an engagement and a new means of connecting with the community. Sally Burton, Chief Executive, Shaw Trust A new welfare settlement The UK’s welfare state is beyond the limits of affordability. The government is already spending £77 billion on pension benefits and, according to the Department for Work and Pensions, this will increase to £240 billion by 2050. An increase in tax burdens on this scale will not be sustainable. Reform is needed to transform the entitlement state and seize the insurance opportunity. Quietly, and rightly, the UK has begun to increase the level of welfare risk borne by individuals, such as through the introduction of university tuition fees. With individuals taking a new approach to work, family and retirement, there is also growing demand for more flexible forms of support. Yet the existing welfare state remains highly rigid and the private sector is yet to fully embrace the opportunities provided by the new welfare agenda. A new approach is needed. This approach requires greater use of public-private partnerships in delivering welfare and individuals to take greater responsibility for preparing for periods of life when they are in need. Tim Breedon Public-private risk sharing This year, the UK faces a welfare bill of around £87 billion (including tax credits). If you add pensions this figure rises to £185 billion. With deficit reduction heading the political agenda, addressing the welfare bill should be a major priority. Ideally this should be done without penalising vulnerable individuals, while delivering long term reform – for example by introducing slower benefit withdrawal rates and helping to lift people out of benefit and poverty traps. Inevitably, achieving this will entail more selective government expenditure and an increased role for private sector providers. This does not necessarily equate to wholesale privatisation: third sector, social finance or commercial alternatives could help refocus benefit provision, leaving the state to concentrate on areas of most need and reducing the strain on taxpayers. Much of the Department for Work and Pensions’ mandate consists of providing insurance, and here it overlaps with the private sector. In 2007, insurers paid some £121 billion in pensions, accident, health and income protection benefits. The same year, government spending on similar risk management and welfare provision (including pensions, unemployment benefit, statutory sick pay and healthcare) was estimated at £219 billion. The split is roughly 65 per cent to 35 per cent with the public sector taking the lion’s share. A 5 per cent public to private sector shift would reduce public spending by £17 billion. So policymakers need to ask themselves: which current state insurance activities could be partly or wholly transferred to the private sector, and how? There are many examples, but to look at just one: 41 per cent of the inactive working age population is parked on Incapacity Benefit. Nine out of ten people falling into incapacity benefit expect to work again, but if you stay on incapacity benefit over two years, you are more likely to retire or die than ever get another job. Sometimes, sadly, illness or accident will lead to long term-unemployment. Alternatively, employers can use commercial group risk policies to fund employees’ sickness absences. Results have been very positive, especially for www.reform.co.uk 23 Reforming welfare / Reform stress, mild depression, and similar conditions which if not checked quickly can cause long-term exclusion. It works because it serves all parties’ interests to arrange quick, good treatment facilitating an early return to work. These policies, though, are disincentivised both for employers and employees through the tax system. This cannot be right. We need a holistic approach based on what works best for the claimant, at the least cost for the taxpayer with the lowest drain on economic potential. By delivering this we can reduce future claims, helping the Department for Work and Pensions focus on vital structural reforms to welfare. Our industry has expertise, and is willing to help. Tim Breedon, Chief Executive, Legal & General Andrew Harrop A better pensions system There is probably a degree of public acquiescence for short-term welfare belttightening. But this should not be confused with long term consensus for a significant shift of the risks of old age from collective to individual responsibility. In any event, the costs of public spending on later life, although set to rise over the next 50 years, are quite containable if all we aspire for is a rolling forward of existing levels of support. However Age UK is more ambitious than that. We want better pensions, care and support for future generations than those experienced by today’s older people. To make that happen we do not want to see personal responsibility replace state activity, but build on it. The aim of increasing private 24 www.reform.co.uk pension provision is not new. Indeed the Labour Government’s 1998 pensions Green Paper talked of shifting pension provision from 60:40 public-private to 40:60.Twelve years later only limited progress had been made, but in 2012 the introduction of auto-enrolment into employer pensions will provide suitable saving opportunities for many for the first time. This will gradually replace much of what the old state-controlled SERPS scheme was designed to do, but will take decades to build up. However many commentators from the pensions industry and elsewhere are adamant that to work, this new system of private pension saving will still need the platform of a higher, simpler and more universal state pension entitlement. Many of the same principles apply to the funding of care and support. We will need to maintain a state-funded safety net for those without their own means, but for everyone else we must promote responsibility by offering attractive private payment options including insurance, saving and the unlocking of capital. Universal pensioner benefits such as Winter Fuel Payments, so called middle class benefits, are currently under attack, but it is worth remembering they form just one part of a state pension system which was described by Adair Turner’s Pensions Commission as “among the lest generous in the developed world”. We can debate the balance between universal and means-tested entitlements, with all the complexities and cliff-edges the latter entail, but the key test is whether the pension system as a whole reduces poverty and, for more affluent groups, replaces an improved share of previous earnings. Turning to pre-pension age benefits, everyone can sign-up to the principle of a much simpler benefit system, which does not discourage work; and alongside this, greatly improved welfare-to-work support. But if these aims were easy to achieve the previous government might have made more progress. Reforming welfare / Reform Getting the detail right is everything. For Age UK, the test will be what impact reforms have on people from low income backgrounds in their late 50s and 60s who often face a combination of low skills, poor health and age discrimination. If welfare-to-work works for this group it will work for everyone; but if it does not, welfare reform must not penalise them. We should not be pushing up the state pension age and reducing payments from working age benefits in the name of work incentives, if the result is hundreds of thousands of over-55s cast into poverty with little realistic chance of finding work. Andrew Harrop, Director of Policy and Public Affairs, Age UK Kerrie Kelly A new welfare settlement – the insurance industry view How the state, the insurance industry and consumers respond to the welfare challenges of the next decade and beyond is one of the most important issues the new coalition government must address. If current standards of welfare protection and pensioner prosperity are to be maintained or improved then Government, industry and the public alike need to wrestle with difficult challenges. The insurance industry welcomes the new Government’s stated aim to re-examine the balance between state provision of welfare and private insurancebased solutions, echoing the report on a vision for 2020 co-authored by the previous government and the industry in 2009. That report identified that 65 per cent of the addressable risk market was provided for by the state with the remainder taken by the private sector through products such as private pensions, health insurance and protection insurance. A five per cent shift towards the private sector, the report estimated, could save the Government and taxpayers £17 billion annually – more than the budgets of the Home Office, Foreign Office and Defra combined. So both main parties have agreed something should be done but how do we make progress from here? From the market side, insurers will need time to get this right. Taking on the extra five per cent of risk identified above would require an estimated £9.7 billion of extra capital – at a time when the EU Solvency II directive will already be adding very significantly to capital requirements. Time will also be needed to develop the right products, with the risk priced accurately and designed in a way that will be attractive to customers and meet the approval of regulators. From Government and regulators, the industry will need a commitment to a long-term framework covering regulation, tax incentives and certainty about what the state expects to provide. Cross-party support would be even better. Certainty would allow the market to design products that would be attractive to groups of customers for whom state protection was no longer necessary or desirable. In some cases, this would almost certainly involve partnership – most obviously in designing products for long-term care. So insurers potentially have a vital role to play in designing a new welfare settlement. There are benefits as well as risks for all concerned, but only with bold leadership and a will to genuinely take long-term decisions will we find a meaningful solution for the future. Kerrie Kelly, Director General, Association of British Insurers The unemployment challenge The failure to reform the welfare system while times were good means that it is now necessary to reform welfare in the face of greater demands on the system. Yet ignoring the need for reform is not an option. Without reform it is more likely that a legacy of the recent recession will be higher rates of persistent and long-term unemployment. All political parties recognise the value of innovative private providers and the need for receipt of out-of-work benefits to be made more conditional on work effort. However, welfare providers continue to operate with one hand tied behind their back. Social enterprises and companies are improving services for unemployed people, but their impact is limited because they do not have full control of the full range of benefits and programmes for the unemployed. A new approach is needed. David Banks The unemployment challenge There are almost five million people of working age who are not in employment.This represents an enormous cost to the taxpayer, to society and, most significantly, to the unemployed individuals. If you are unemployed then you are more likely to suffer from ill-health, you are more likely to be unhappy and you are more likely to die early. And this disadvantage is passed on to the next generation – the children of workless individuals are more likely to leave school with no qualifications, are more likely to be victims or perpetrators of crime and are more likely themselves to be unable to hold down a job. Intergenerational unemployment kills social mobility and perpetuates social exclusion.We have a moral imperative to do more to help unemployed people to find decent, meaningful employment. We also have a financial imperative. The UK spends over £40 billion a year on primary benefits for unemployed people of working age. The Unemployment Challenge is not intractable. Indeed the solutions are reasonably widely understood and accepted. There are three primary areas where research suggests that we can make an enormous difference. First, work should pay. People need to know that they will be financially better off by being in work. A re-imagining of the benefits and tax system for low-income groups would help many people escape worklessness. In the past the necessity of this task has been outweighed by the complexity of achieving it. In meeting the complexity challenge we will make a critical step in reducing unemployment. Secondly, we need a unified, effective, Active Labour Market Programme that best deploys the resources available to help the maximum people find sustained employment. Underpinning this is the creation and maintenance of a vibrant and diverse supplier market in which contractors are paid only when they achieve results. Thirdly, the potential benefit savings that will be made by www.reform.co.uk 25 Reforming welfare / Reform helping people into work need to be leveraged in order to generate those savings. Many unemployed people have complex constraints to employment that require significant investment to overcome. Only by releasing the spending power of future benefit savings will we be able to make the transformative investment required to significantly reduce unemployment numbers. There are very real complexities in solving the AME/DEL riddle. It will require the collective imagination and resource of government, prime contractors, providers and other key stakeholders to overcome them. David Banks, Group Managing Director, Care and Justice Services, G4S Janet Daley Self-perpetuating poverty The absurdity of a benefits system which penalises those who take paid employment by making them worse off than if they had remained out of work has been clear for many years. Even Labour ministers admitted its failings in private (and occasionally in public). Welfare dependency perpetuates defeatism, despair and civic exclusion. It condemns people who are not necessarily the wilful “scroungers” of tabloid notoriety to a futile dead-end existence in which the possibility of self-reliance (let alone self-improvement) becomes further and further out of reach. As well as the damage to individuals and the waste of personal potential, it creates long-term economic and social problems by making poverty selfperpetuating. As Arther Laffer has said, “If you pay people to be poor you will never run out of poor people.” And if you penalise people for going to work, you will 26 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform make the decision not to work an eminently rational – sometimes unavoidable – option. Paid unemployment as a lifetime condition is unsustainable economically because it is hugely expensive and wasteful of human resources, and socially because it creates a permanent underclass locked into hopelessness with all the attendant problems of criminality, drug addiction and irresponsibility that follow. At a time of recession, reform is almost certainly going to involve a “workfare” programme in which those who have received unemployment benefit for more than a minimum amount of time are required to do community service of some kind.This activity need not be seen as punitive or shaming but as an attempt to introduce the concept of reciprocity and social participation. It would, if anything, tend to reduce the stigma of prolonged benefitdependency by addressing the sense of unfairness – of nonworking people being supported by the rest of the population indefinitely. More importantly, it would give recipients some experience of structure and purpose in their daily lives. In practical terms, it would virtually eliminate the possibility of claimants working in the black economy. The criticism on the Left of American welfare reforms has centred on the argument that they “force people into low paid jobs”. It is true that far more people have taken on low wage employment in the US since the welfare reforms of the 1990s. But all the evidence shows that most people do not remain in low or minimum wage positions for long: once they start working, they move up the employment ladder quite quickly. While there may be, at any given moment, a proportion of the working population in low wage employment, they are not the same people from one year to the next. Work, as many statistical studies have shown, is the best and most lasting cure for poverty. Matthew Taylor IB or not IB: is that the question? Janet Daley, Columnist, The Sunday Telegraph Matthew Taylor, Chief Executive, RSA A major welfare challenge for the Coalition will be getting long-term Incapacity Benefit claimants back into work or starting to actively think about doing so. It is one thing stopping new claimants coming on to the books, as the last Government was already doing, another entirely telling a 56 year old man with no qualifications and no recent employment record that he is losing a sizable chunk of the livelihood he has relied on for a decade. Providing high quality services so that this is a transition into employment has to be the minimum expectation. The simplest route is sheer compulsion but there can be little doubt that this will cause a major backlash, and not just in Labour seats. But how do you sugar the pill when the Chancellor has screwed the lid of the sugar jar tight shut? With proper funding and realistic targets, there are plenty of providers who would be willing to have a go at getting the rolls down, and the moves to ensure providers are paid by results in terms of savings to the Exchequer is one way to ensure this happens. The alternative is to wheel out lots of tough rhetoric but to accept a slowly downward curve as fewer new claimants are allowed on IB and long term claimants leave the labour force. But this will not generate the savings upon which the Coalition seems to be relying. So it will be fascinating to see how the Department for Work and Pensions intend to pull off the conjuring trick. Transcript Michael Smyth: Secretary of State, ladies and gentlemen, my name is Michael Smyth and on behalf of all the partners at Clifford Chance, I’d like to make you very welcome on a sticky summer’s day to a sticky but important subject, namely that of reforming welfare. That welfare requires to be reformed is now the subject of an emerging consensus with broad acknowledgement that we must incentivise the worker, reward aspiration and give opportunity to all whilst protecting the genuinely needy. But if there is broad agreement from the direction of travel, there remains uncertainty about the detail with important questions still unanswered – how do we achieve reform whilst We must incentivise the protecting the weakest worker, reward aspiration and most vulnerable so that nobody is left and give opportunity behind? How does the to all whilst protecting the rhetoric around the genuinely needy establishment of a Big Society lead to the reality of jobs and dignity and hope? How do we transform a system designed to defeat Beveridge’s five giant evils into one fit to serve a modern economy in the 21st century? These surely are amongst the questions to be asked at today’s conference and it is fitting perhaps that we convene to do so at Canary Wharf, still by most measures the richest piece of real estate in Europe, but sitting also at the heart of one of Britain’s poorest boroughs where wealth and opportunity live in close proximity to high unemployment and in-ground poverty. We have in this area a growing young and ambitious population and yet fewer than 10 per cent of the people working in Canary Wharf were born or live in Tower Hamlets and over 50 per cent of the borough’s children were born into households where neither parent works. That cannot be acceptable morally or sensible commercially. Private businesses like this one have an important role to play in assisting any process of transformation, the marketplace cannot just be a means for contract and exchange but must also maximise opportunities to deploy wealth and success to improve the public realm. Law firms have no reason to be complacent in this regard. Last year’s report of Alan Milburn’s commission on access to the legal profession suggested that by a number of measures it was now more difficult for those in working class backgrounds to become lawyers than ever before. Compared to the 60s and 70s the direction of travel is now remorselessly in the wrong direction and who are we, in elite law firms, to condemn those who fail to seek work opportunities in other locations when it is increasingly difficult in this office to persuade staff to move around the world because they are understandably reluctant to risk prejudicing the career prospects of other family members. So let us for our part be quick to acknowledge that these issues are complex and affect many of us. So the challenges are therefore great: income inequality at its highest since records began, more working age adults living in relative poverty than ever before and over a million on benefits for nine or more of the last ten years. But so too are the prizes in all this: a society with social justice and social mobility, a return to their rightful place at the heart of the public realm, and, you will perhaps forgive me if I say as a lawyer, the need for a welfare framework that has justice at its core is important to me. So this is set fair I think to be a terrific event. Before we move to the substantive proceedings it falls to me what quaintly used to be known in the media as a public service announcement – we are not expecting a fire drill today so if you hear the fire alarm respond appropriately against that context. I will help you with a visual demonstration in the manner of a non striking BA steward and say that the exits are here and here and here and here and, if you get outside, the river if you need to douse yourself is in that direction. Please extinguish anything electronic that you have about you because it will affect the mikes here. Lawyers are very reluctant to adhere to that injunction but I know there are few lawyers in the room today so I expect compliance in that regard. We will give you food and drink throughout the day. We do hope in particular that you will stay for lunch but there is a condition precedent to you being able to indulge in that regard and that is that you will be proactive. The conference programme permits questions and answers at every turn, we have roving mikes and we do value your participation enormously. There are a variety of sponsors today who will be thanked properly in a moment but I want to pay tribute in particular to the fact that this day has been conceived and to a very large degree executed by one organisation, namely Reform. Reform was amongst the first to identify the importance of this subject, it has been in the van of the very necessary Reform was amongst the forensic and intellectual work that has to first to identify the any sensible importance of this subject, underpin discussion as regards it has been in the vanguard how our welfare is to be improved. They have a of the very necessary terrific number of work forensic and intellectual behind them work that has to underpin streams with more to come and any sensible discussion it is an association that as regards how our welfare we at Clifford Chance are delighted to have is to be improved and it is very appropriate that this is their event and very appropriate too that the chairman of today’s proceedings is the brilliant young director of Reform, Andrew Haldenby. I’m not sure why that induced giggles but I think he’s brilliant and he will conduct you through the rest of the day’s programme. Andrew Haldenby: Now I’m blushing! Don’t believe a word of that, certainly the young bit. Well good morning everyone I will just say a few brief words because Michael has set up the day perfectly. This is the first of four major conferences that we are holding in these 100 days, this is www.reform.co.uk 27 Reforming welfare / Reform day 49 if anybody hasn’t realised it. Today welfare with Iain Duncan Smith, tomorrow education with Nick Gibb, next week public service productivity with Francis Maude and later in the month, health with Simon Burns. Because this is the most amazingly exciting time it seems to us, there is a ferment of ideas, the new government and the economic environment and the need to tackle the deficit The new government and have unleashed an the economic environment absolute ferment of and discussion and the need to tackle the ideas and we wanted to bring deficit have unleashed an together the people that absolute ferment of ideas matter in these hundred days to get a sense of where the government is but more importantly to engage and to have a discussion together about what to do on these fundamental questions.You clearly have given up your time to come and I am thrilled that we have such an exceptionally strong event today which gives it its critical mass. What we are going to do is record the discussions today. We will write them up and we will submit them to the Treasury as part of Reform’s submissions to the spending review, so today is an important part of our work in influencing the spending review and the Treasury will get that in good time before that October announcement. Let me just whip through the programme that is in your brochures. We are going to talk about four things: the first is the big question of the welfare budget and of reform. We have got to get the welfare budget down given the deficit but the question then is what is the approach to reform, how much is going to change so that we can improve the delivery of benefits at the same time as reducing costs, and clearly we are absolutely delighted that Iain Duncan Smith wants to take this platform. He has been a firework of activity even in the last few days so for Iain to take this moment to put into context his developing thinking is wonderful for us and he will take questions. Secondly, we will talk about the Big Society, the idea there being that big government has not been perfect in delivering welfare. It has been not only impersonal and bureaucratic and uncaring but also inefficient, so the question is can the Big Society be a better alternative. The third session is what happens to welfare when people take more responsibility themselves and when there is a new settlement between the state and its activity in financing on one side and the individual and the rest of society and families on the other. Again I am thrilled that Steve Webb, the Pensions Minister, will be able to give his thinking there. The final session is unemployment, which is a core issue given the economic situation and the move out of recession. There has been a consensus on opening up the market in providing services to unemployed people but the question is, are new ideas needed given the scale of the challenge? As you know Reform is an independent charity and a cross party organisation, and I’m thrilled that Yvette Cooper, the Shadow Secretary of State, will join us for that session. We will close at 1 pm for lunch and no later. Because this event has exceptionally generous sponsors we have been able to do it in a proper way and on a large scale, so that is the first reason for thanking 28 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform them, but more importantly we are going to benefit from their intellectual capital as they contribute to the discussions today. So Stephen Bubb for ACEVO and David Ellis for Catalyst will tell us about the Big Society and what they are doing; Tim Breedon of Legal and General, who I did see come in but can’t see right now, Tim Breedon who is also the new Chair of the ABI, will speak on the new Welfare Settlement and then David Banks of G4S and Chris Melvin of Reed in Partnership will speak on the unemployment challenge. I am extremely grateful for not only your financial support in helping us towards the cost of this event but also your intellectual contribution and my profound thanks, of course, to the very brilliant, and young, Michael Smith whose pro bono work is really remarkable. Clifford Chance does not just sit in this remarkable building and sort out the problems of many companies and governments, it absolutely reaches out into the community and seeks to improve people’s lives directly so Michael, not only for your help today but also for that, we pay tribute. Keynote Speech by Rt Hon Iain Duncan Smith MP Andrew Haldenby: Let me introduce Iain Duncan Smith. I am not going to say very much more than the fact that Iain has been Secretary of State for Work and Pensions now for these seven weeks. He is going to take questions which I will chair and I am only going to say that it is not often in politics that someone with a passion for a job gets to do that job and this is one of those rare moments. So Iain can I ask you to come to the podium and tell us your thinking. Iain Duncan Smith: Can I say thank you very much indeed for the opportunity to lay out today some thoughts on where we would like to go and in a sense where we are. But can I just say that I feel quite ordinary and quite dull beside the brilliant Michael and the brilliant Andrew, I’m sorry you are just going to be treated to a boring speech by me but nonetheless they will liven it up later on I’m sure! Can I also say that before I really get going, that many of you know that I set up and have been involved with the Centre for Social Justice which continues without me now as an independent organisation. I’m sorry for the plug for a rival think tank but … Andrew Haldenby: Not at all, we believe in competition. Iain Duncan Smith: It is in fact independent and I dare say it will be in due course cajoling and critical as must be its right, but I am no longer the chairman of it but it still continues. It was really in that guise that we first started to look at what was going wrong with a society that in a sense had never had it so good in a way, there was so much money around but it was becoming in certain areas phenomenally dependent and I was reminded by the great statement by Tony Blair when he was Prime Minister, when they came in in 1997. I must say how I wish this was 1997 with a growing economy and an awful lot of money around. So much of what I say of course will be set in that context, but he did talk at the time – and I think genuinely meaning it too – that it was time for proper welfare reform and that they would have to think the unthinkable and he brought Frank Field in. I have never thought that thinking the unthinkable was the problem, the problem has been doing the, up until then, the undoable, which is the real issue here for as soon as you start to make change, of course, everybody finds a reason why that change cannot take place. So in the context of what I say today, I hope you’ll remember that we have sort of been here before but I think we are now past the time when we can think the unthinkable. I think this is absolutely the time to do the things that we think are necessary and so in that context I hope to use today to set out a direction of travel and to give you some examples of why I think reform is necessary. Of course everything is set in the context of our economic situation. I don’t need to remind you, but being a politician I will, that the emergency budget has come about because we as a nation are pretty bust and there isn’t any spare cash sloshing around the place. Unless we get the borrowing and the deficit under control, in many senses things could be a lot, lot worse. I know there is a bandying around between politicians about whether or not Greece is a future for the UK or not, the reality though is very simple and straightforward, that unless we do get the deficit under control, as every serious economic commentator has already said, then the cost of our borrowing alone, even before they raise the interest rates on us, would be staggering and cause every single tax payer to be hit by huge payments. So the Budget, the emergency Budget, was set to drive down our record deficit, cut the second highest level of debt in Europe, which as I remind everybody is projected to be £149 billion this year, over the course of this parliament, with what I suspect – agreed or not agreed – is at least a clear five year plan. Securing a forecast for steadily falling unemployment is critical and producing a plan for sustainable economic growth within the centre of that. George Osborne, having set that out in major consultation with myself and others, has at least now set the course for what I believe will be a fair budget and a fair future into which we may set proper reform. But the budget of course was not just about getting the deficit down, if that was all then I wouldn’t be here today, I actually wouldn’t even be in this job. I have come here because I believe what Tony Blair said back in 1997 was absolutely correct, my concern is that it has taken all these years for us to recognise that some quite important decisions need to be made. So I see the Budget really as phase one of an agenda for change that has two phases. It has laid the groundwork for reform and is not just I believe about top slicing budgets simply to save money, it has to be about more than that even as we start through the deficit reduction. Let me give you an example of how I see this. Phase one within the Budget sits across two areas that are absolutely necessary for reform and are right in the heart of the Budget. The first is for housing benefit reform and the second is bringing the new work programme which includes our plan to get people who can work off long term incapacity benefits, two big issues in the early phases which are necessary. I remind everybody here that the cost of Housing Benefit and Incapacity Benefit have absolutely spiralled pretty much out of control over the last number of years and put a great burden on the taxpayer but the true cost has been paid by some of the poorest receiving those benefits because it is not just about the money, it is the fact that they have become trapped in a form of dependency by the very nature and the structure and in many senses the scale of those benefits. Let me just deal with Housing Benefit first. No one can really doubt that these reforms are long overdue, it is the sort of stuff that politicians in the tea room at Westminster privately all say is absurd, whatever party by the way, except for those who have long since given up rational thought, but the rest of the politicians – and there The true cost has been paid are a few – all discuss quite openly that there by some of the poorest something receiving those benefits… isfundamentally wrong it is the fact that they have with this system. It has become trapped in a form been going on for years, of dependency by the very we were all in agreement about that. nature and the structure In real terms the cost of and in many senses the the working age scale of those benefits housing benefit has absolutely spiralled, it jumped by some £5 billion in five years and it is projected to reach £21 billion if we do nothing about it by 2014/15. Massively demand led and obviously clearly unsustainable. It would be unsustainable frankly if we were sitting here with the money that we had in 1997, and we aren’t. But the cost – and let’s get away from that for a second – the cost is not the only problem. The scale of these payments has meant that housing benefit has become a disincentive for people moving to work for those who receive it. I know that we will have our differences, and we do in a sense because the purpose of opposition is not necessarily to give government support if they are doing things that maybe you didn’t get round to, but even Yvette Cooper has had to admit in the House that the government would have had to have reformed this had they got back into power. My only question is why it took so many years to face up to that. In fact politicians of all parties, as I said, have been on about this for a while so the time is now to do something about it.You know some of the figures: 75,000 people get more than £10,000 a year in housing benefit and all right, a smaller but certainly a significant number, especially in places like London, some get over £100,000 a year. These are payments that no one on low income trying to struggle by trying to rent homes etc would ever be able to afford and in a sense they have also distorted the market in the social rented sector quite intriguingly, so dealing with housing benefit is not just about the recipients of housing benefit, it is also about others who have to rent homes in similar areas. So we have had to cap local housing allowance levels to the rate of four bedroom properties, following a cap from Labour of five. We have had to introduce size restrictions to the social rented sector to make better use of existing housing stock and we have had to change the percentile of market rents for local housing allowance rates to 30 per cent to help keep the rising rates under control. This is all about resetting the balance of incentives www.reform.co.uk 29 Reforming welfare / Reform to move into work, I think these changes are vital. Nobody says this is going to be easy and we have increased transitional money, dramatically actually, we’ve tripled it and we will keep it under review. The transitional period I recognise will be difficult in certain areas but we will do our level best to make sure that that is smoothed through, but nonetheless these changes have to be made. The other key element in this phase one is the Work Programme and the transition to get people off incapacity benefit. The Work Programme as you probably noticed was launched yesterday by Chris Grayling, who opened the competition for the new framework. For the first time the programme offers providers real freedom to truly tailor support for job seekers. No more centralised, one size fits all schemes, but real support to help people back onto the path of sustainable work. To be sure that we’re being fair to the taxpayer, the Work Programme will be run on a payment by results basis – this is critical – when it rolls out in the first half of next year and not just The key is to get people into the work habit, to make on the basis of course that you get somebody sure they stay in work, into work. That point is that they overcome their critical when you deal with getting people into problems and I want to come back to that later on work, as many of the voluntary organisations will tell us, and I see Stephen Bubb sitting here from ACEVO, they will tell us that actually you didn’t finish your job, you only started. The key is to get people into the work habit, to make sure they stay in work, that they overcome their problems and I want to come back to that later on. We will also demand that job seekers take personal responsibility for accepting work when it is there, so we will work with them intensively, we will help them, we will support them in a way that hasn’t been done or achieved at any other time, but we also believe that that comes therefore with some responsibilities. So there is conditionality and sanctions on the benefit side as well and, for those who hadn’t noticed, it’s been there all the time. In fact it started under my last Conservative predecessor, Peter Lilly, but it seems to have been parked for a while. It is important for people to recognise that that help comes with some responsibility. So this is a complete reappraisal of how we help people back into work and involves a major change in the way providers deliver support. Underlying all of this, the delivery of this, is also a change in the sense that we want to bring in the private and voluntary sector because they have so much expertise. I learned a huge amount from particularly the voluntary sector in the way that getting people to work is done and is carried out and I hope that those plans will come through in those reforms that we are bringing through. Part of that also, and you can argue more controversially, is the whole area of the ESA, the Employment Support Allowance migration. Now all of this area of course was originally proposed and started by the [previous] government. We have made changes to it, we have focused it more and we have put more support behind it to ensure that those that need work will get better tailored support, but we are also committed within that to tackling this huge problem of those who languish on incapacity benefits, unwatched 30 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform and unhelped. We currently, as you probably already know, have two and a half million people claiming this inactivity benefit, a figure which has remained stubbornly high and which has cost the tax payer about £7.2 billion just to sustain people in that state of limbo. Despite many of these people wanting to work and telling us that they want to work, and they do, people can spend years, and have spent years, on Incapacity Benefit without ever being required to do an assessment or without ever being seen by anybody to even ask them a simple question, how were they? In fact 30 per cent of those on the old style benefit have never even had any form of medical examination at all and some 41 per cent haven’t been seen by anybody for six years. When John Hutton was Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, some of you may recall that he pointed out that if you had been on Incapacity Benefit for more than two years you were more likely to retire or die than ever move back into work. I don’t think in a modern society that is any state of being we should either wish or accept for anybody in society unless they absolutely are incapable of any form of work. We have a society which should be capable of finding and tailoring employment and work for people as far as we possibly can, here we absolutely fail to do so and that is why we are now starting the process of migrating some 1 ½ million of those on Incapacity Benefit onto Employment Support Allowance and simultaneously providing intensive personalised support to help them make sure they transit back into work. For those that aren’t sure about the ESA, let me explain, the benefit has two parts to it. One part is for those who are deemed capable of some work but with serious difficulties and will need intensive support which they will receive and we’ve added support to that, that’s called the Work Related Group, and the other part, which is the Support Group, is for those deemed simply incapable of work in any form and they will simply receive support. If they think they can do work, of course that is for them to decide. Those who are deemed fit for work will be moved on to Job Seekers Allowance where there are courses, as I said before the Work Programme will bring intensive support for them. Moving beyond that, that sets the base, the idea that we have begun to reform two major areas of difficulty, the second phase of reform has to take this forward at a pace. I have spoken a bit about this and I want to use this opportunity to try and set the context for this. Reforming the benefit system to make work pay, simplifying the system to make it more efficient and more understandable, enhancing mobility and also reforming at the other end the pension system. Let me start with the make work pay part. Benefit reform is absolutely critical and will play a major part here. As some of you know from the work that we published at the Centre for Social Justice, we have been looking at this in some detail and at some expense for some time but since I’ve come into the Department I have simply asked everybody to get on with it. I’ve been working therefore with experts, David Freud specifically on this one, and the officials across government and not just in the Department, to look at how we can deliver a benefits model that ensures it pays consistently to take work at every opportunity. I have also within that context with Downing Street asked Frank Field, as some of you spotted, to look at the issues of poverty. One of the areas that we’ve discussed is that the nature of poverty is so narrowly defined in the UK and it is time for us to understand also what contributes to poverty. Things like asset poverty are critical and how that affects the ability of people to take opportunity and life chances. Also mobility, and I’m going to come down to that, so Frank has gone away to look at that and will be presenting reports as I think everyone has been told. At present the poorest in our society see little reason to take the risk of finding a job and losing their benefits and actually seen in the light of the calculation that all of us make in our daily lives and we take for granted, seen in the light of the calculation made on the basis of a risk and reward system, the decision frankly looks pretty rational. All the figures show that for people starting out in work for the first time and for those seeking jobs, having been out of employment for a while, all of these figures show that work provides the most sustainable route out of poverty, there’s no question about that, we know that. However, the complexity and perverse nature of the system acts as real disincentives to people making those decisions of balance of risk and reward. Multiple withdrawal rates over massive numbers of benefits have resulted in a combined regressive tax and benefit system for the poorest in society.We ask them, those who start work, to put up with rates of benefit and tax withdrawal that none of us sitting in this room would absolutely accept without going completely mad at the ballot box at the next election, possibly not even making it to that. For someone to seek work for the first time in an area of high economic dependency there is a cultural issue to overcome as well as a financial issue and we often just focus on the financial. If for you going to work is a big choice, it is an even bigger choice where nobody you know really regularly At present the poorest goes out to work.You are having to make a in our society see little decision about reason to take the risk of positive your life and there is no finding a job and losing example of that around their benefits you, again something that many of us take for granted.We see and we know people going to work, we recognise if we are young enough our parents set that standard and maybe our friends and relations and people in neighbouring houses, all pretty much fill a very similar style of life to us. But if you come from an area where nobody does this, where people simply don’t fill regular work, then taking that decision is a very big decision indeed.That cultural decision has to be supported and helped and that’s why it’s important that when they balance that risk, they realise that the reward is very clear. However, right now, the risk of taking work simply for them therefore doesn’t outweigh the reward. As they see it, if they take a few hours of work, for every £10 they earn they might actually lose £7, £8 or in some cases even £9 of their benefits and moreover the complexity of the system means too often that they have no idea how much they will lose or when it might be clawed back from them, they simply have no idea about this at all. It is very difficult if you don’t know exactly how that is going to work whether you will make that decision. My view is that the benefits system has to be far simpler and establish a very clear link between work and reward, very clear, very understandable, very obvious. A simpler system will also help to reduce administration costs as well as reducing the opportunities for fraud and error in this complex system that we have at the moment which today costs the taxpayer many billions of pounds and which are unnecessarily wasted. This process of reform to enhance the dynamic benefit of making work pay and simplifying the system is at the heart of our reform agenda and whilst I can’t go into much more detail If for you going to work is than that today, I do a big choice, it is an even plan to bring forward much more detail on bigger choice where this fairly soon, but rest nobody you know really assured, changing that regularly goes out to work. system to make work pay is critical and lies at the heart of everything that we do. That brings us also to another issue here and one that I had spoken about before but that I need to explain perhaps a little more. Beyond just making work pay it is important to understand, as I said before, some of the reasons why taking work becomes more difficult for people in difficult areas than we would assume at first glance. Even as we make work pay and simplify the system, this problem is persistent. Britain has one of the highest rates of workless households in the whole of Europe, it is an astonishing record when the last Government talked consistently about the creation of new jobs, alongside that has been the fact that we have had this persistently high level of workless households. Perhaps what is even worse, we also have the highest numbers of children living in households that have no work and, if you’re quick, you will recognise the connection between poverty and worklessness is very clearly established, so we already therefore set those children on a path of poverty and low achievement from the word go. This is simply unacceptable and for those who glibly talk about a North/South divide, I think it’s time we stopped all of that. In my view that is just simple lazy rhetoric by politicians seeking simple sound bites. The problem frankly is much, much more complex.You can find workless blackspots all over the country quite near areas of very high prosperity. In fact, for example, the gap between wealth and worklessness doesn’t have to be far for you to travel at all. Jobs growth and employment, the recovery in cities like Manchester and Leeds, has simply not benefited the deprived communities that actually already lie within those cities and at the Centre for Social Justice we did some reports on some of these cities, certainly Manchester and others, and we showed that much of the money flowing in on regeneration had had no effect on some of the poorest in those communities at all. This is in part because our system already works against labour market flexibility within that area. Not just transport costs, and these are factors taken into consideration, but because anyone in council housing who wants to move into an area with work runs the risk and the fear of losing their right to their accommodation. I said when I was on an interview the other day that I was struck by some people from up in the North East who told me when I spoke to them once in London that they had travelled all over from one city to the next looking for work and hadn’t seen their families for up to a year at a time because of the fear that had they moved with their families they would find it impossible to find accommodation. www.reform.co.uk 31 Reforming welfare / Reform Again it is that balance between risk and reward where we seem to penalise the poorest in society right now yet expect them to take the greatest life changing decisions that any of us will ever take. Many of us might say there are difficult decisions that most in the middle classes take about changing jobs and other decisions they will take, but if you have never worked before then it is a massive decision to take that risk, to move into an area that you have no experience of whatsoever. So alongside of this, making work pay, we have to also across the government explore how we can take the risk out of that mobility, across wider areas with the Department of Transport and Communities and Local Government and others. I am not going to set down specifics here today but I do reiterate the fact that it is an area that any government of responsibility has to now look at and it is an area that I know privately I have talked to Labour politicians who have said to me that it has been a massive source of puzzlement why some of the money that they have pumped into many of these cities – and there has been huge inward investment into a number of cities – has had such a limited result when it comes to those pockets of poverty in those cities. For too long we have ignored the plight of those trapped in these areas and we have to now look at this carefully. Without the capacity to seek work, aspiration and hope then become the proviso of the middle classes. We are applying the same principle as well when I move on to the last of these areas, which is pension reform. I know that Steve Webb is going to be coming here later this morning I think to talk about this so I won’t go into too much detail but let me just set down why I think it is important and the main themes. The main point to note here is that unlike a previous government I think we have to take responsibility now for facing up to the long term challenges that are posed by the fact that we are now living longer as a society. That is why for example we have already made a start by announcing through consultation the end of the default retirement age. I am adamant that this has got to go, I can’t conceive of any reason why a modern society would let government tell people at this point that they had to retire or let businesses use this as an excuse. In my view no longer should we have employees who wish to delay their retirement, forced out by an artificial mechanism like this and so discussions with Vince Cable and consultations, but we are set to eradicate this. However, long term reform requires providing a solid basic state pension that people can start to build on whilst creating the right conditions to invigorate savings. We have to change the record of the last 13 years which has been abysmal when it comes to long term saving in society. We save as a society far less than many of our neighbours do, France and Germany for example, even if that level of saving has risen slightly. We made a good start, I believe, last week by announcing the restoration of the earnings link with a triple guarantee for basic state pensions. To build a floor under that saving is important and to build one that is simple and easy for people to understand, but that’s not enough, we have to go further and that is why we will be taking forward the review of the last government’s procedures on auto enrolment to figure out how best this can be done to encourage and bring people to that saving environment. I want to reverse the decline in saving levels and ask people to think carefully about how much they will need to fund the type of retirement they want for their future. 32 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform We have already said that we are committed to raising the state pension age to 66, that’s in the coalition agreement. At the same time however, we have to help people understand why this is the case and what the benefits are of this when it comes to working slightly longer. Our figures show that working a single year beyond the current state pension age for example and deferring your pension can increase retirement salary thereafter by up to 10 per cent, something that most people have absolutely no idea about at all. In fact I was asked by somebody in my constituency, who simply bumped into me and said he had been told by others he should retire at 65 but he wanted to go on working but that he would lose his pension. I actually said We have already made to him, no, quite the a start by announcing you will gain if through consultation the contrary, you leave your end of the default retirement for a year or whatever longer and he retirement age. I am adamant that this has got had no idea about that. it is important for to go, I can’t conceive of So people to understand any reason why a modern that these choices do have benefits as well society would let and not just for government tell people it is also at this point that they had individuals, good for the economy. to retire or let businesses Our records seem to show at the moment use this as an excuse that if we extend the effect of the working life of the country by just one year, it is forecast that that would increase GDP by about 1 per cent, something like the equivalent of £13 billion. I want you to set that in context of some of the tax changes in the budget if you are thinking about it. So 66 is the starting point for the debate. At present, under the last government, there were plans in place already to raise the state pension age to 68 by 2046. What I want is a debate about how that should start and how fast is society prepared to accept the need to raise the state pension age. Bearing in mind as I recall that the original pension age of 65 was set for men back in 1940, most men’s expectation of life is that they would live for another six or seven years. Now you can look forward to living almost a third of your life in retirement as things stand right now so things have changed dramatically. I am conscious that of course there are pockets and areas where life expectancy is stubbornly low. The way to deal with that is through the reforms that I’m talking about, changes that direct those life changing expectations at those areas, rather than setting us against a change to the retirement age because of those problems we need to deal with those specifically. If we also want to be fair to the next generation of taxpayers and be realistic about increasing longevity, then we also need a serious debate about this and I encourage us to engage in that. So, in conclusion, this agenda is I believe a bold agenda but I believe also we have absolutely no choice. Letting it drift on as it is at the moment with the perverse incentives and a workforce that is in a sense more and more dependent and more and more needy, is the wrong way to go. With the welfare budget ballooning over the last few years we need to shift the culture which underpins demand. There is nothing big about a society which seems content to let a growing number of people become dependent on the state and live without work, aspiration or hope. Changing these life chances of the people we look at when we look in many of these deprived communities is the beginning of a Big Society and it is only by doing that that we can achieve such an outcome. The prize therefore is a society more in balance where work is well distributed and where children grow up seeing work as a normal activity and responsibility is ingrained in them. A society where people save for their retirement and where we can afford a more secure future for those pensioners that do retire. I believe that what I have to do in my department is to work on this agenda and make it happen and that is what I plan to do. Thank you very much. Andrew Haldenby: Iain, thank you very much indeed. I am going to take five minutes for questions. That is going to push us just over ten o’clock but only just. There are some people standing at the back, if you want to take a seat please do. This is very difficult as it is a short time but I am going to take three questions. I am going to ask James Bartholemew there, I am going to ask the person whose name I don’t know in the green top at the very back and then you madam with the blue top there. So can I take those three questions together? James Bartholemew: Thank you. James Bartholemew. I want to ask you how it feels to be certainly the first Secretary of State in my lifetime, and perhaps ever who has become Secretary of State for what used to be called Social Security and actually has been studying it for many years beforehand and making it his business and now, uniquely, you are in a position of being, as it There is nothing big about were, ready to roll with ideas and proposals and a society which seems doing lots of things content to let a growing immediately whereas number of people become most people in the job dependent on the state take about two years to understand what it’s all and live without work, about. Is this a very aspiration or hope exciting time for you, are you daunted and just as a supplementary, have you considered – you haven’t mentioned Workfare and real pressure on people to work, are these on your list? Jess Steele: Jess Steele, I am the chair of the Create Consortium which is aiming to bring in the community allowance. You talked about mobility and cultural change. Cultural mobility starts locally we would argue and in the context of the Big Society ideas, the community allowance would allow local community organisations to pay local people on benefits to do the part time seasonal work that needs doing in local communities, in those communities you talked about. I’m from Hastings which is as poor as Hull, a South East town that’s as poor as anything in the North, so will you, while we wait for the bigger reform to get to your dynamic benefit situation, can we bring in a smaller reform that focuses on these small scale but win-win opportunities in local communities so local people in those communities can do that work themselves without getting immediately penalised in the way you described? After a lot of dithering negotiations with the previous Government can we get on with it now? Rosie Bennett: Thank you, Rosie Bennett from The Times. I have no doubt whatever of your commitment to remove disincentives to work in the benefit system but it seems some of your Cabinet colleagues have made your life a lot more difficult, even in the last few weeks. George Osborne actually managed to increase disincentives in his changes to tax credits and Michael Gove scrapped plans for free school meals for half a million of the lowest paid families, which I know you have talked about a lot in Opposition. How do you stop other departments undermining what you are trying to achieve as they look for cuts? Andrew Haldenby: Three very well made questions, Iain. Iain Duncan Smith: James, the answer is frightening because the one thing you do notice when you come in to government is the scale of government and the time it seems to take to turn this massive super tanker around and you wonder sometimes if there are enough years in the scale of government. So of course, but I’m not undaunted. I do think that if we start early, which is what we are trying to do – somebody said why are you in such a hurry and I said I am in a hurry not to be late and that’s the trouble, we have to get moving. Each day that passes at the moment is a day lost if I don’t move on it so we are moving on all of these things very fast, so in due course you will hear more about this but definitely. On the Workfare side of things, sometimes we look at America and we do pluck stuff from America and sometimes slightly out of context because there are contextually different parts. Well America is slightly different in a social sense from us but the Work Programme that we have introduced has I think some of the best elements of the things that work in terms of both incentives to work, support to work and also conditionality. As I say, the conditionality will be enforced, we do expect people once supported to take the jobs that are available and I think it is important for them to recognise that. I think for the most part people will, I don’t think we’ll have to introduce that very much and I think that was the thing when Peter Lilley was in charge, intriguingly once they realised that the conditionality was actually being used, how very quickly people never reached the point of conditionality but actually took the work. So it is more of a warning than I think a reality for many people because people recognise that there is a limit and then they will move before the limit. Cultural mobility, absolutely. Maybe we can chat a little bit more. I accept that we have got some things we need to do in the meantime to get this stuff moving in the shorter term while we get other stuff going and we’ll take a note of that and maybe if I can grab you afterwards and have another quick word about it. But absolutely, I agree hugely with the voluntary sector, we can do a lot of work in the meantime to get stuff moving, to condition people to work. I am absolutely open to that without any question at all. I recognise that and I’d be very interested in seeing how that can work. Rosie, why do you suppose for any moment that anybody in the rest of Government will make it difficult for me in any shape or form? We are all in this together! We are a coalition, which is wonderful. So that said, www.reform.co.uk 33 Reforming welfare / Reform therefore, I can only simply say to you that I have an ace in my back pocket right now which I will be playing shortly and that is to say that it is accepted that the concept of social justice must travel across the Government and so we are making provision for that within Cabinet Committees. That’s all I will say for a second. Anyway, yes, of course in the short term you’re right, sometimes things you do in the short term may make the longer term project more difficult but they don’t make it impossible. The key point about what I was saying today is when I look at the reform programme that we want to bring forward, it will embrace all of that within one structure and then make that structure work directly to make work pay. That’s all I can say to you right now. So in a sense I am not actually concerned about that particularly because whatever short term changes are made will be swept up as we move forward in the next phase of reform. So I am moderately relaxed about that and my colleagues of course chatted to me first about all of that and we were together, always together.You’ve noticed that I’m sure, so thank you. Andrew Haldenby: Iain, that was an absolutely fascinating 35 minutes, not just the clearest possible framework, intellectual and policy framework about how you are approaching these questions and your division into a phase one of Housing Benefit and the Work Programme and in the phase two of the more fundamental questions about making work pay and pensions reform. I think that is incredibly helpful for us all, not just for this morning but also to think about how we can support you for the rest of your time in office. Also we just got a sense there of how this Government is approaching these questions and how you are working with colleagues and how you are going to marshal the resources of all of the Government to change the situations of people in hardship. That is just what I would have hoped for today actually, that at the beginning of this Parliament, of this Government, we can get a sense of how you are going to do it. Let me just, before we go on, our next panel is going to rush up and we’ll introduce them and the next session, Mike and I and Iain will go. So Iain, we’re thrilled you’re here and thank you for taking such trouble over such an excellent presentation, thank you. Local solutions and the Big Society Nick Seddon: Ladies and gentlemen, what an excellent presentation. The quote that stood out, particularly given what we are talking about today, is “there is nothing big about a society that is content to allow a growing number of people to become dependent upon the state.” I’m Nick Seddon, I’m the Deputy Director of Reform and we’ve got a fantastic panel here. Each is going to talk for, well Douglas is going to talk for ten minutes and each of the other three is going talk for five minutes and I shall start tinkling a glass very irritatingly once they start going over the five minutes so that we will have time for Q&A. The premise of this discussion really and IDS, Iain Duncan Smith, set the scene very well for us, the Big Society agenda is very real for the Conservative Government as I understand 34 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform it. The Prime Minister has said there is such a thing as society, it is just not the same thing as the state. The Deputy Prime Minister The welfare state isn’t has talked about a working. Every year billions fundamental resettlement of the of pounds are spent relationship between supporting millions of the state and the people in a state of citizen. We are so used dependency rather than in to being cynical about what politicians say alleviating poverty that sometimes we try and read the runes but sometimes we should remember that exactly what they say is what they mean and that we are talking about a fundamental resettlement. So we have some very exciting speakers here. Douglas has written and spoken a great deal about localism particularly and the way that devolution might happen and Stephen Bubb, the Chief Executive of ACEVO, wrote a very interesting piece recently about civil society and partnership with the state moving from romanticism to reality. We also have David Ellis from Catalyst Housing Group, which does a great deal of work in neighbourhoods, particularly to get people out of destitution and Sally Burton who is the Chief Executive of the Shaw Trust, which is the largest third sector provider of employment services. So we have got some real experts in the field and I am looking forward to hearing what each of you has to say. Douglas. Douglas Carswell: Ladies and gentlemen, I wanted to use my ten minutes this morning to talk about some of the fundamental reforms that I think we do need over our welfare system and to show some of the ideas outlined in a book I wrote called The Plan and before that a series of papers I wrote on this called The Localist Papers. The welfare state isn’t working. Every year billions of pounds are spent supporting millions of people in a state of dependency rather than in alleviating poverty. Almost 70 years after the Beveridge Report laid the foundations for the modern welfare state we are not so much ending the dependency but spending a lot of money perpetuating social ills that Beveridge would have recognised. Half a century after the introduction of universal welfare provision, today more households depend on some form of welfare than at any time in our history. Far from creating a post-war New Jerusalem we have created something very, very different. Benefits that were supposed to become transformative have become permanent. Millions of people are trapped in the squalor of low expectations and disincentives. It is all done at an extraordinary cost and I don’t just mean an extraordinary cost to the Exchequer, I mean an extraordinary cost in terms of squandered talent, ability and potential. What should we do about it? Well successive governments over the past 30 if not more years have tried. Labour’s Welfare Reform Programme, the Conservatives attempted some reforms in the 1990s, but to date none has significantly managed to cut welfare dependency and I think we need to ask why. The problem I believe is that our welfare system is founded on a model of universal provision achieved by a highly centralised model presided over by a remote technocracy. There is almost no scope for pluralism, innovation or any pressure to pioneer new ways of alleviating poverty. The purpose of welfare I think should be to provide for those in need who are unable to provide for themselves, but to do so in a way that encourages those who might be able to contribute to their own well being to do so. By definition, if we are going to do that I think we need some sort of assessment of people’s personal circumstances, of individual need. Who is needy, for how long? At some point someone, somewhere, ought to be making value judgements. Trying to devise a single universal scheme that can take all of the details of personal circumstances and conditions into account is going to be difficult, yet fundamentally this is what Beveridge’s recommended universality pre-dictates. I think we need a new approach. Instead of universalised welfare which must by necessity be centralised, we need to look at localised provision, something which would allow pluralism, innovation and accountability. Welfare reform is an incredibly difficult thing to achieve but there is one example that stands out in the western world and that is the example of the United States in the mid-1990s. In 1996 Bill Clinton signed the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act or Workfare. It was remarkably successful by almost any measure. The number of families on welfare over the decade that followed fell from five million down to two million, 1.6 million fewer children were in poverty a decade afterwards, poverty amongst African American children, who are traditionally very disadvantaged, fell from 42 per cent to 33 per cent. Amongst single mums poverty fell from 50 per cent down to 42 per cent. What is it that those reforms did that was so successful? What is the magic formula? Well it is not really what Washington did that mattered or counted but it’s what Washington stopped trying to do. The Workfare reforms, the mid 1990s American reforms, devolved responsibility over welfare and over the schemes down from a Federal level down to a state level. It offered much greater freedom, some states had already pioneered with innovative programmes which were based on them being able to exempt themselves from Federal programmes. It allowed states to go far further and it was a freedom that many states seized with real gusto. Some incentivised employers to take on the workless, others organised schemes themselves, most tended to make the receipt of benefits conditional, best practice spread. Without officials in Washington best practice spread because people could see what worked. Could we try something similar in Britain? Yes, we could but I get very, very cross when I hear people talking about adopting the Wisconsin system or the Florida system, that’s precisely what we should not look to try to do. What we should do if we are to learn from the American system is not to ape one particular state model, it is to decentralise control in the way that the United States did. What works in Wisconsin or Florida works in Wisconsin or Florida because it’s devised for their conditions and their circumstances. We should try the same approach to allow people to devise welfare programmes that work in the localities of this island, not try to ape those in America. I think we should allow local authorities to determine levels of entitlement. Ideally such a reform, a devolution of responsibility over welfare to county and metropolitan level, would be accompanied by fundamental reform of local government finance. In The Plan we set out ideas to do that, I don’t want to go off at a tangent on to that but I think it is important to remember that several British counties and cities have larger populations than several US states and the most successful US states, notably Florida and Wisconsin, were the ones that devolved responsibility even further, even more locally within the states to Pluralism would allow welfare boards and best practice to spread, county authorities. to spread itself Devolving control over welfare, both geographically and by giving responsibility to non state players, to smaller players, would have a number of advantages. I am conscious of the time so I’ll just skate through five of them very quickly. First, large bureaucracies tend to create unintended consequences. I see the consequence of this in my surgeries almost every week. Vulnerable people who have been missed out by the system because the tick box assessment doesn’t take into account all of the factors. Second, I think if we localised control it would become more responsive to individual cases. Local case workers could see instances where the universal rules had failed. Thirdly, I think pluralism would allow best practice to spread, to spread itself. Local authorities could come up with ideas and pilot schemes that, with respect, not even the wisest civil servants in Whitehall would be able to envisage. Instead of aping what happens in other countries I hope we would soon start to move towards a system where people talked about adopting not the Wisconsin system but perhaps the Essex system or the Kentish or the Surrey system. Fourth, I think non state players, voluntary groups, businesses, charities, churches, could have a much greater role if we devolved responsibility away from the centre. I know a number of voluntary organisations in my own constituency who are already tackling Localism would transform some of the consequences of attitudes poverty, I think they would be far better placed to actually address more of the responsibility and take on a bigger share of the responsibility than some of the statutory players. Fifth, and I think this is perhaps the most important, localism would transform attitudes. I think it would give a legitimacy to conditionality that perhaps might not exist otherwise. In 2006 the Government revealed that fraud and error cost the welfare system £2.6 billion, at the moment many see benefit fraud as cheating the system rather than their neighbours, rather than something over which they have ownership. One of the most depressing things to me about our welfare system is the aggressive but ineffectual response that welfare fraud provokes from the state, TV ads that somehow imply that people on welfare are somehow fraudulent. I think it is demeaning, I think it’s belittling, I think it is actually quite pathetic – is this what Beveridge’s great vision has come to, advertisements on television that imply that Big Brother is watching you in case you are claiming something you are not entitled to? I think if we localise control over welfare we are going to have a very different attitude to a neighbour who through no fault of their own needed our support. I think we would have a very different attitude to a www.reform.co.uk 35 Reforming welfare / Reform neighbour who we perhaps knew didn’t require support and was perhaps claiming something that they didn’t need. It would legitimise the system in a way the current system doesn’t do. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I think localism would restore a notion of responsibility. Our responsibility to ourselves, if we can support ourselves, our responsibility to those around us, not an abstract category of the underprivileged but our visible neighbours, people in our communities who for whatever reason cannot support themselves. It would no longer be our obligation to simply discharge our responsibilities when we pay our taxes, it wouldn’t be up to they, the state, it would be more a case of we, our street. Localism in short I think would make welfare better; it would also make us better citizens. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much indeed Douglas. Stephen Bubb: Thank you Nick and colleagues. Let me take you back to 1273 and perhaps one of the earliest work programmes to tackle a national crisis, that of returning Crusaders, no jobs and causing a bit of a muck. In 1273, one of my members established a charity to provide work for returning Crusaders, still going strong, still providing work programmes and support in Hartlepool. So we have been doing it for quite a long time and actually a longer time than the state. I have a prediction about the latest Work Programme and the prediction is that it will fail if it is simply an efficient supply chain sausage machine and if it does not significantly involve charities and social enterprises and other third sector organisations in a way that simply hasn’t been seen since the War. There has been a growing involvement of our sector, now many of the welfare work programmes, 40 per cent, are delivered through our organisations, but we need to go much further. Just to give you a few examples of what I mean. Jason, a lad who at 19, a black lad, South London, went in to prison, a six month sentence. What support did he receive? He got an anger management course and nothing else and when he came out of course the local authorities weren’t interested, he wasn’t a priority for housing so he was sofa swapping, drug problems, inappropriate relationships, actually did want a job. Who got him a job? The Prince’s Trust. There’s Carole who’s in her 40s, actually significant serious disabilities and someone who would have on all measures remained on Incapacity Benefit but actually wanted a job and helped into a job by the Shaw Trust. A record, let me tell you, 57 per cent of working with people with profound severe disabilities against a national It will fail if it is simply an efficient supply chain average of nine per cent, but that required sausage machine intensive work, mentoring support, the sort of work that simply isn’t available from the state. And then finally Mark in his 40s, autism. Actually he has had various periods of work but what actually worked is the National Autistic Society, who fundraised to provide a work programme and that got Mark into a job, but that involved serious support for him in that job, a mentoring programme. 36 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform That programme has now ended so what I am suggesting is that you need a programme, the Work Programme, that supports those organisations and more than that, you need to encourage a whole raft of community organisations and national charities who are not currently involved in providing work programmes. So RNID who have serious expertise with profoundly deaf people, RNIB, those big charities were not involved and are not incentivised to take part in providing support but could be if you devise the right sort of programme. The Future Jobs Fund which was a brilliant scheme, devised in our sector and largely delivered by our sector, for the first time actually meant that there were community organisations who were only providing one job, one job for a young person, and they did that because the third sector got itself together and organised consortia working. Now, unless the Work Programme replicates that type of approach it will fail. I completely do not doubt Iain Duncan Smith’s commitment to social justice and if social justice is not really the thing that underpins the Work Programme then it will fail. I know he understands that and he understands our role, I do also know that the Treasury do not. The Treasury do not have systems for recognising the wider social benefit. This isn’t simply about cutting the bill for Incapacity Benefit, it is about driving a better social justice system. People contribute because they’re working, because their relationships are better and because they can make a contribution and that’s important, but it is not incentivised enough in our current system. So what do we need to do? Mohammed Yunus who has written a recent book on establishing a social business, said you need two things to succeed.You need people of goodwill and passion and a framework and he said you can’t just rely on goodwill and passion, you have got to have the framework. The framework for us is about addressing the capacity issues in our sector, even our well established charities like the Shaw Trust are still small scale in comparison with the commercial sector.You need capital: there is no point in telling us to take part in a scheme of payment by results if you don’t also capitalise that scheme. David Freud completely understands this point but has yet to find the mechanisms to provide capital.You need to incentivise smaller organisations and finally I’d suggest Jobcentre Plus – why is that still a national service? Perhaps we should transfer that into local Jobcentre Trusts run in the third sector. So very, very finally before Nick completely throws me off the stage, let me just make a point about Big Society. The Big Society is not about the state withdrawing, it is about what David Cameron describes as a smart, strategic state but if Big Society turns out to be the state retrenching, cutting back, withdrawing and leaving us to pick up the pieces, it will be a charade. Thank you. David Ellis: Thank you Stephen and some of your points resonate greatly with the work that we’re doing at the moment. I am going to try and talk to you about how we are making Big Society real, how it’s actually happening and how we are making a real difference to real people and saving money here in London today. I am from Catalyst Housing Group and we are a charitable housing association that looks after about 20,000 homes across the South East and London. As a housing association, part of our job is to create good, decent homes for people to live in and to create safe and vibrant neighbourhoods. That’s the given but also at Catalyst we see our job is to provide and promote choice and opportunity to our citizens in those communities, to help them lift their horizons and raise their aspirations. Our communities know us very well and they are very familiar with us so therefore we are ideally placed to see, hear and do something about the broader range of problems that they face. The most socially inactive and the most disadvantaged face problems around housing needs, financial advice and assistance, health and well being, crime, employment and educational opportunities and we do this across the whole cross section of society from the young to the elderly. I want to focus on one strand of our work to give you a flavour of how community organisations can actually build a bigger society but I also want to highlight some of the challenges we face in the work that we do. At Catalyst we are working with some of the most alienated young people in our communities, those who are very hard to reach and who have already started down a path of criminality or fallen into gangs. We run programmes on our estates that are helping these disaffected youths find a better path, a way both out of financial and Community organisations academic poverty. But can actually build a bigger first of all I want to give you some context for society that. Most of you here will know the standard figures that children living in poverty are three times less likely to get five GCSEs than their richer peers.You probably already know as well that the Sats exam results are one of the indicators that predict future prison populations but given the austere working environments that we’re in, I wanted to give you some harder facts that we come across. In the average London borough it costs £4,300 per year to educate a child from year seven to nine, that’s ages eleven to fourteen. If that child becomes bad and gets excluded or expelled from mainstream school, it costs the state £9,000 a year to look after that child and educate them. If they continue on that path and end up potentially going into a young offenders’ institute, then the average cost to society goes up to £52,000 a year. If they graduate to big boy prison then we’re talking about £100,000 a year in taxpayers’ money. I want to tell a story, the story is true, the names are different but we’ll call this boy Michael. He was a typically good kid and unfortunately he fell in to some bad company and started being influenced by some gangs. Quite soon he became a very disaffected snarling young man who went by the name Sniper. Now Sniper ended up having an argument with a rival gang leader about some disrespect that was shown on his Facebook page, they ended up having a fight, Sniper pulled a knife, the gang leader ended up telling one of his crew to shoot him. He died. Michael was 15, the gang leader was 15, the guy that pulled the trigger was 13. Both of those gang members were given very long prison sentences. The death of that young person cost us £1.7 million in tax. Our job as evangelists for Big Society is to make sure events like that don’t happen. The tragedy of the life lost, the tragedy of the lives wasted in prison, the tragedy of the lives destined to be unfulfilled. And of course the tragedy of the money wasted picking up the pieces after the event when we can see all these things hurtling towards us. That’s why we must and can stop these things and to us that’s Big Society. So for someone like Catalyst and others it is about applying resources in a way that breaks the cycle and producing and embedding positive change. We have youth programmes where we link with a variety of different partners and institutions. Our man at Catalyst who actually runs this programme is a former gang leader from Los Angeles who broke out of this cycle of violence and brokered a peace deal between the Bloods and the Crips and now he is mentoring young people on our estates in London, fixing them before they get broken. We have learned how to build programmes around mentoring but importantly we have tailored them to the specific and local needs of young people in the communities in which we work. This isn’t theory, this is tried and tested reality. Does it work? Yes. In some of our hardest to reach estates we have had a 38 per cent reduction in crime. More importantly we have seen the young people come through these programmes, turn their lives around, at university, in secure jobs and become active economic citizens who buy their own homes and also are coming back into the mentoring programme and becoming the next tier of mentors that are helping other young people on our estates. So when we talk about building and change, it works when you are close enough and have the right philosophy and that’s about the big picture meeting the local context. For me that’s what Big Society does when it works. The programmes challenge ideas that are ingrained in the children and young adults that working and living off benefits is not a good life choice. We teach them how to access opportunity because if you fall out of school early you don’t actually have the thought process in how to understand how to change things and we present a path which is lawful and a way to help them in reclaiming back their lives. So we are offering a way into work and away from hopelessness. My challenge, our challenge, is to make this Big Society happen in a big way. Sally Burton: Thank you. I am mindful of the time before you start rattling and it is quite nice to come last because I can perhaps sew a few of the issues together. I do want to thank Stephen for his generous comments about Shaw Trust actually because some people in the room may know that we are in quite an awkward position in that we have been waiting for 49 days plus to know as an organisation whether the Government feels able to sign a contract that we were preferred bidders for earlier in the year. I don’t want to make commercial points but I just want to pick up some of the points that Stephen raised because they are really, really important about effectiveness, efficiency and evidence based. I’ll say a little bit as well about the third sector and the Welfare to Work arena in particular. As Stephen said, we are the biggest. We will have a turnover this year of around £100 million, that places us about three times bigger than any other welfare to work charity, but you will all know that in www.reform.co.uk 37 Reforming welfare / Reform the scale of some of the huge companies that work, and some of them are represented here today and in the audience and we work well with those organisations, that’s tiny money. It is a public record that we have about £33 million in our reserves, again for many of you that is like a drop in the ocean and we realise that, but we are one of the most wealthy charities in terms of the amount of working capital that we can bring to the table.Yet with the Work Programme we know, our calculations tell us, that that won’t be enough money to enable us to play the kind of role we would like to bring, bringing our evidence, our effectiveness and our track record to the table. So we have to work in joint ventures, we have to work in partnerships and we have to work with the rest of the third sector and in the programmes we run we bring along with us 70 or 80 third sector organisations, many of them very specialised organisations like RNIB and so on, who are able to bring real expertise to the table with regard to supporting particular individuals. We work with offender organisations, housing organisations, single parent organisations and so on as well as what we see as the core of our organisation, around disability. So what am I saying about the third sector? We can play a huge bridging role but we cannot play the role of the organisations that bring the huge levels of working capital that are needed for the Work Programme to the table. Some of you may be trustees of charities; would you want us to put significant amounts of those resources up front on a payment by results regime when we may not be able to guarantee getting that money back because of economic factors beyond our control? Those are the dilemmas that are going to face the third sector if we are going to be able to really, really support the Government in its Big Society agenda. A couple of figures around our success rate, particularly around people who are hardest to place in employment. We have programmes of work where as an organisation we are running out of steam so 57 per cent of conversions into work, that is people moving totally from benefits into full open employment, people with complex disabilities, every one of whom who would continue to be eligible for a higher rate of benefit even if they had gone through a more stringent medical assessment as the Secretary of State has laid out. I think even more impressive than that though is that we are keeping 92 per cent of those people in jobs over six months. We measure at six months, twelve months and so on, and our figures at six months are 92 per cent. I think you would all be proud of that as employers actually with any group of people. I have said there is some evidence there about effectiveness, I want to just say something about efficiency as well because we’ve heard about what goes on in a local area and one of the things we have been working on intensively is to try and understand where the lost clients are, the people we have heard about in case studies here today, where they are. We won’t find them by the current model. I could tell you about a lady, let’s call her Doreen, who works in a large supermarket chain, who has got significant health problems, not known to anybody, just managing, plodding on, got arthritis, got depression, failing at work, being absent, all of those issues, at risk of getting into a disciplinary situation. Gets suggested by one of 38 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform her friends, why don’t you go down and talk to them at Jobcentre Plus about what you can do but because she is not on a benefits stream she gets turned away. The fact that she might lose her job, the fact that she might be eligible for some support, she doesn’t quite fit the box so she gets turned away. Let me tell you about Deepak, a man who spent all his life in the military and who now has a criminal record because of something that happened in the military. He has recovered from cancer and has a serious mental health problem. Because he is receiving intensive support and medical support through the secondary mental health services, again he is not seen as a priority, not seen as job ready. Actually coming in to the third sector, being given intensive support, not only have his medication levels dropped and his very high cost to the health system dropped, but he is now back into employment as a result of organisations like Shaw Trust. So we have got these case studies but unless we do things around galvanising our capital and our intellectual capital and our social impact in an area, we won’t capture those people. What Shaw Trust has been doing is working on something that we are broadly calling an iBox. It’s our differentiator and I might be giving you commercial information here, but it is about saying at the local level how can we create a strong footprint that isn’t predicated on us having a contract that might end in a year or two’s time, is a genuine investment in a local area so we can bring people into the system regardless of benefit level, regardless of the level of needs that they have and start to think about how we triage them and get the most effective services for them. We have been working intensively with employment psychologists who have been able to help us think about this journey from the customer’s point of view and we have also been trying to think intensively about the evidence there is about the best way to get traction for individuals in work. We have developed tools which we have tested out with a number of large employers which have enabled us to get a much more significant job match so that the attrition rate is low, people succeed, and they do their work placement experience. Over 40 per cent improvement in the rate of people getting accepted into jobs and maintaining those jobs when we use those types of assessment tools. The last thing I would like to just say to you about the kind of things we have been investing in is actually a distance travelled tool, because this is all about evidence. Every council, whether these services are commissioned at DWP level, at a national level or at a local level, the commissioner needs to know that they are getting value for money. The commissioner needs to know that the interventions they have commissioned are saving them money, that they are getting a return on investment, not a pure financial one but hopefully one that is about social impact as well. We have been developing a tool that we have now built into our IT system which measures distance travelled. So we can identify when a person starts with us, the kinds of interventions they might have – and that might be hugely varied, it might be driving lessons, it might be intensive counselling, coaching and so on – and we can put a cost on that intervention and we can feed that cost back to the commissioner so that they know the evidence is there about which services are most effective and they can then continue to invest more in that. I could talk for much longer. Nick’s been very polite, he hasn’t rattled his glass but he’s pointed to his watch! The point I want to make really here is that the third sector is not all soft and cuddly; the third sector is tough and commercial. I have been an NHS Chief Executive before, believe you and me, the NHS is significantly more The point I want to make commercially astute, it really here is that the third understands both financial value and sector is not all soft and social value in a way cuddly; the third sector is that many, many other organisations don’t and tough and commercial we want to be at the heart of Big Society, working with local authorities, working nationally with government. But there is a price for that and the only reason we have been able to invest in that level of research and evidence based and improving our systems and process that I’ve just outlined to you is because over many years we have been prudent and built up those reserves very carefully so that we have got them there to invest in continuous improvement and we won’t be able to do that in the future if we cannot play at a very high level in this market. Thank you. Nick Seddon: Thank you very, very much each of you, that was really fantastic. We have probably got just over ten minutes for discussions and question. I am going to take the chair’s liberty to just point out a couple of things, continuities and things that I have found very interesting. There is clearly this.You very brilliantly outlined the need for greater devolution and the self denying ordinance of government that actually stops doing things. Stephen, you also tested or challenged the fact that the Government mustn’t abrogate responsibility at the same time and then there was a message from all three of you about the third sector at the heart of Big Society which I think is great. We have talked about capacity, we have talked about capital, we have talked about impact and effectiveness, there are all sorts of things hopefully we will pick up on now. So I am going to take questions in clutches, if they come in clutches, and then give the panellists a chance to respond.Yes, down here. Adrian Thacker: Adrian Thacker, The Prince’s Trust. Thank you Stephen. We have about 40,000 young people every year for education and training, I think the issue for the third sector was well outlined by Sally and by you, and that is of course payment by results. If payment was only going to be at the end perhaps of 12 months in a job, there is going to be a tremendous cash flow issue. Certainly one of the things I am looking to get out of today is some direction that but actually a question for Douglas about local delivery of welfare across the board. It is interesting but let’s not kid ourselves that local providers too can be quite distant bureaucracies. I’d be interested to know how you see your local delivery fitting in with ever larger welfare to work programmes that go across geographical boundaries, how do you see that working? Douglas Carswell: It is certainly true that local government is not a panacea for everything. Localising responsibility and accountability is not going to mean that, it’s not the be all and the end all but generally speaking local government, most research tends to show, that generally speaking local government is better at running things than Whitehall. I think we have tested to destruction the notion that Ministers in London, however wise and brilliant they may be as individuals, can devise a set of rules that can manage every situation and alleviate poverty effectively, I think we’ve tried it. If you give local authorities, local councils, more responsibility I think you allow the possibility for innovation and change, you begin a process of change. The decentralisation of responsibility over welfare shouldn’t just be done to localities, I think there is an important point of devolving responsibility to organisations that perhaps may not define themselves in purely geographic terms. I think we need to experiment, I think we need to innovate. For example, I know a charity that does a lot of work dealing with offenders that have drug and alcohol problems. It doesn’t necessarily have a regional or local reach, why not try to give it responsibility not so much for a particular area in terms of geography but for a particular area in terms of problem? I think decentralisation need not just be on a geographical basis. Nick Seddon: Do any of the others of you want to come in on this? Stephen? Stephen Bubb: Can I just go back to the capital issue? Swapping hats I am a non-executive chair of the Social Investment Business, which is a third sector organisation which provides loans to the sector. It runs three funds, the Future Builders Fund, the Community Builders Fund and a Social Enterprise Fund. Money is provided through government loans of £400 million into the sector, and this has been hugely successful. The difficulty is that the Future Builders Fund is now fully committed and that was a fund specifically for organisations to deliver more services and that is now closed. The Work Programme system which it is based on, and probably rightly, actually is a good system of payment by results, but getting to there from here is a huge challenge for us and the Government has yet to consider how they ensure that capital flows into organisations so they can operate that scheme. There is talk about commitment to a Big Society Bank, which is probably eighteen months to two years off. The one point about the Future Builders example is that these were all unbankable loans, the rule was if it was bankable we didn’t make the loan. The reality is that the commercial sector, the banks, don’t lend into our sector for all sorts of reasons. That’s not going to change, that has actually got worse, so unless we devise a system that brings capital in to our sector, traditionally a sector which is hugely under capitalised, we just aren’t going to be able to step up to the plate. Nick Seddon: I was just going to ask Sally, you talked about value for money and obviously George Osborne has stressed the importance of value for money at the centre of www.reform.co.uk 39 Reforming welfare / Reform everything and I just wondered whether or not the question of local authorities that was brought up here and the way that they relate to organisations at a local level, whether or not there was a reflection that you might have there? Sally Burton: I’ve spent most of my career in local government and on one level my instincts say get things out locally much nearer to the people but I would also share your point about distance actually and some are very monolithic. Actually Nick Hurd yesterday was asking me what some of the barriers were to charities working more on developing their social enterprise capacity to help local authorities engage more volunteers, develop new ways of running public services and we were talking about things like park services where Shaw Trust runs a lot of horticultural enterprises, could we grow and develop those to maintain parks? He asked me what the barriers were, well one of the barriers will be actually within the local authority. They are not that sophisticated at commissioning. They will tend to have a block costing volume approach and in areas which might lend themselves to being run as social enterprises involving organisations like the Prince’s Trust, bringing in disadvantaged people to be employed or work as volunteers, often the business has already gone to the huge big national, in that case environmental companies, enterprise or whoever has won that business. So how do we help our local authorities commission in a way that actually kind of splits the contacts down or builds different models of commissioning in, when they are under huge pressure as you say to grow and grow and grow their contracts and more and more done on a regional basis to try and get economies of scale? I think that’s one major challenge. I think one of the others I have to say sadly is still attitude within staff, that even with all we know about the economy and so on, there is a protectionism and I think local authorities of all political colours are still in many cases very committed to being state providers rather than shapers, enablers, facilitators, holders of equity. I’ll give you a small example. In a very wealthy part of the West Country where Shaw Trust actually runs personalisation services on behalf of the Social Services department, we were running a pilot for the Department of Health which was about seeing how much we could help customers with cash in their pocket, use volunteers as part of their own personal care plan and the local There is something really authority workers appealing about the local sabotaged it. They thought volunteers answer, the Savile Row would take their jobs suit as opposed to the away. They didn’t think Maoist overalls, one size they would be professional, they fits all didn’t think they would meet personal needs. It wasn’t perhaps deliberate but actually what they did inadvertently was took away choice and control from the frail older people who the scheme was targeted at because of their anxiety about job security and so on. So I think there are a couple of barriers, commissioning is the big one, how we help the workforce in local authorities come to terms with the 40 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform fact that there is always going to be work for them in dealing with the most vulnerable but actually we have to have a much broader church of people involved in delivering services. sustainable amounts of money from high net worth individuals. We might be able to get it for a particular cause at one particular time but actually there are multiple routes that we have to keep looking at as well. Nick Seddon: Can we squeeze three more questions in? One, two and three. Stephen Bubb: The social impact bond is very interesting. Social investment business put money into that and we have made a proposal to the MOJ to seriously roll that model out. The point I would make however is that there is very little evidence at the moment that the commercial, the banking and financial sector, is seriously interested in supporting this because they don’t see the commercial return, that’s the problem. Where these things have happened it is because the state has actually provided that capital support. Now perhaps in ten years we will see a different approach as we have had in America but that is not happening now. What is needed now is for the state to look seriously at how they are providing capital and it has got to be on a much, much bigger scale. Peterborough for example is on a very, very small scale. Randeep Ramesh: Randeep Ramesh from The Guardian. Can I just ask you about the capitalisation issue? The model promoted by a company called Social Finance who are working with reoffenders in Peterborough, basically ask for money from high net-worth individuals to see whether they can reduce reoffending rates and the savings to the public purse are shared with those investors on a return basis. It is a bit like sponsor an ex-offender in your area. Could the same approach be used to capitalise Welfare to Work? Audience Member: There has been a lot of talk about the necessary links between government and the third sector. Stephen, you mentioned the disastrous repercussions if government were to roll back and leave the third sector to pick up the pieces. What role does the private sector have to play apart from just funding? What other role can the private sector play in this? Dominic Nutt: Hi, Dominic Nutt from Catalyst Housing Group. There is something really appealing about the local answer, the Savile Row suit as opposed to the Maoist overalls, one size fits all, but there is something also comforting about the state solution. I know what I am going to get if I fall out of work – and bearing in mind that my boss is on the panel, I hope that’s not the case – how do I know that my local church or society is going to look after me if I fall out of work or how do I know if I am going to have to move to another parish? It sounds a little bit arbitrary. Nick Seddon: Thank you. David, why don’t you go first and then we’ll go Stephen, Sally and Douglas, if you would say the final word. David Ellis: Okay. If I can just make one point about Adrian’s point about accessing things across different geographies? I think that works very well if you have people that work across different geographies but where the partnerships seem to break down all the time, and I think this also plays to our second question about how we can learn from the private sector, is having a clarity of purpose and approach and how we measure what those outcomes should be. I know Frank Field is talking about how do we measure when people are coming out of poverty but it is having that framework of operation before you engage that is very, very useful to be able to have a bigger impact at a local level. When it goes back to the point about how do we bring in high net worth individuals to help capitalise the programmes we work, then I suppose the answer is that’s one of the ways of doing it. It is very – well from our experience, I’ll defer to the bigger charities here – but it is very difficult to raise in particular long term Sally Burton: Can I just add some figures? These are estimates and there are officials I understand from the DWP in the audience so you may well think I’ve got this a bit wrong but potentially we are looking at being able to manage a cash flow of £30 to £40 million and I think the rewards are probably more likely after two years plus, not one year. We have talked to a number of high street banks who have quoted around 8 per cent to10 per cent, they are not that keen on it by the sound of it. We have also on David Freud’s advice spoken to a number of venture capitalists and external investors who have been quite clear that they think the risks are very high so it goes back then and therefore in effect it would cost the public purse more because they would want to take such a high reward at the end of the period that it might actually over that period of time have cost the public purse more than trying to raise the money in other ways. That’s always a risk isn’t it? Going back to that question that perhaps links to the issue about what else does the private sector bring to this other than cash, I think that really is important. Actually the private sector brings huge expertise in many areas at having that ability to manage large supply chains, at having the infrastructure capability, at being able to bring economies of scale across the system with regard to HR and IT and all of those issues and we mustn’t belittle that because those organisations have made huge investment in that over many years. In many areas there are things the private sector brings because they have a pluralistic business model which will mean they have a footprint which is a much more sustainable footprint.You have got many charities in an area, you’ve got contracts and if at the end of that you lose it, you may end up having to move out because there is no infrastructure. If private organisations have got that footprint then actually it enables other organisations to work with them in way which is much more sustainable as well in any one locality and really starts to create some social impact, I believe. Douglas Carswell: It is very comforting isn’t it, talk of a universal welfare system, of standardised assessment, that it’s there for you and that everyone is equal, but look at the reality for so many people. It is in fact very different from what it’s meant to be, from the Beveridge idea. As I said at the beginning, it entraps people in the squalor of low expectation and dependency. It squanders not simply the cost to the tax payer, it squanders so much in terms of human capital and lives not fulfilled to their full. We often hear people talking about opposition to localism through what they call the postcode lottery. I can think of few things more arbitrary than the welfare system as I see it in my constituency. It is through its tick box assessment every bit as arbitrary and random as when you choose your lottery numbers in some cases, it is a very arbitrary and unfair system. I think if we were to localise control, if we were to transform the welfare system into being what it should be – local solutions to alleviating poverty – we would create a system that was more dynamic, more innovative, that did what it was supposed to do and I’ll It entraps people in the put it like this, listening squalor of low expectation to many people on the panel today, if I were a and dependency. It vulnerable person in squanders not simply the need of help I would cost to the taxpayer, it have greater confidence in some of your squanders so much in agencies and terms of human capital organisations helping and lives not fulfilled to me address some of my their full problems than leaving it to remote officials in Whitehall. We have tested to destruction the idea that Whitehall knows best, it’s time to give control to localities and to the third sector. Nick Seddon: That was brilliant, thank you. Forgive me, we have overrun but let’s have a quick coffee break and then return. Oh forgive me doubly, we have another session! A new welfare settlement Andrew Haldenby: As the more observant of you will have already have noticed, Julian Le Grand is not Nicholas Timmins. He is taller and less bearded but has been able to step in and help us by chairing this session. So Julian, thank you so much and I will hand over to you. Julian Le Grand: Thank you so much. I was thinking of trying to pass myself off as the Nick Timmins who has stopped smoking but the differences are a bit greater than that. I am very pleased to be here and to welcome such a distinguished panel. There is a real problem that this session would like to address, which is the potentially growing unaffordability of the welfare state. I am struck by two statistics when looking at the ageing of the population issue. One is that life expectancy has increased by three months in every year since the Beveridge Report was written, with the result that we are now living at least on average 15 years longer which is ultimately a good thing but obviously does create problems. The other statistic is that one in four children born today will live to be 100 years old and although it ultimately has to be a good thing, there are problems for the healthcare system, for the social care system and for pensions. www.reform.co.uk 41 Reforming welfare / Reform The healthcare problems are rather less than many people think partly because actually we are not seeing disability increasing very sharply along with life expectancy. But social care, there are clearly enormous problems and there are big problems for the pension system. It is a pension system that was originally designed for a much shorter degree of life expectancy and we shall no doubt be hearing more about that later on. There are problems elsewhere, at least in the social security aspects of the welfare state; the enormous rise in the various incapacity benefits, invalidity and so on and of course we do have a problem – The other statistic is that one in four children hopefully a relatively short term problem born today will live to – but we do have a be 100 years old problem of unemployment. In all of these things we are going to have to consider how meeting these needs is going to be financed and provided for, in that, we are probably going to have to consider various ways of mobilising the private sector resources as well as public sector ones. We have three very distinguished members of the panel who are going to talk to us about this. First of all we have the Minister of State for Pensions, Steven Webb, who I am delighted to welcome. We have been, I suppose, colleagues actually for quite a long time in various capacities. He is an economist like me, worked at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and then at the University of Bath and has been spokesperson for work and pensions for quite a while. He is now a Minister of State for Pensions in the new coalition government and I can imagine very few people are as qualified as him to pronounce on the particular issues confronting the pensions system. So without further ado, over to Steven. Steve Webb: Julian, thank you very much. Only my mother calls me Steven but … It’s good to be with you today and it is nice to see Julian here actually as I owe my career to him. Because what he didn’t mention, and may indeed have forgotten, was that day when I got on the train at Bristol Parkway, when I was still working at the IFS, and Julian got on and said did you know there is a chair in Social Policy coming up at Bath, in a kind of equal opportunities sort of way, I applied for it, became Professor of Social Policy and the rest of history. So a belated thank you, Julian, for that. One of the things that it is good to think about today is the role of the state specifically in the context of pensions and trying to draw some boundary lines between what the state is good at and will do effectively and what the markets should be doing and whether that dividing line has shifted or will shift. I want to identify two things that I think the state in pension provision is good at and will do better than the market and then where that boundary line should stop. First of all in terms of providing a firm foundation, we need a single, fair, decent, understandable foundation for people on which to build and secondly we need to encourage individuals to take responsibility for their own provision and to try and make sure that in doing the one, we don’t undermine the other. So what do we need to do about getting the state pension right? I have become known as something of a bore at pension conferences – I know you may find that hard to believe 42 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform – but I had a little postcard which said whatever the question is, the answer is get the state pension right first because if you do not get the foundation right the problem becomes three times as difficult to solve. So we have got to sort out the basic state pension and as you all know, Julian mentioned he was out of the country when the Budget happened, but we restored the earnings link, which is something that for 30 years the basic pension has been declining relative to earnings, and we finally said that has gone on for too long. Now I know Reform argued, for understandable reasons, that we should delay that decision, clearly big pressures on the public finances, tackling the deficit is a big priority so why do that? It sounds a bit like old fashioned tax and spend. So why is it actually a rational sensible thing to do? Well actually 30 years of breaking the link, 30 years of letting the state pension decline and decline and decline, relative to the earnings which it is meant to replace, has created a chasm on retirement.You retire, you had earnings here and the pension is going down and down and down and down, so there is suddenly this huge gap between what the state is providing as a basic pension and what you expect to live on in retirement. What happened then is that the government provided a second pension on top, SERPS, state second pension or whatever, with complicated arrangements for opting out of it for people in other schemes. Then we realised that those two pensions together were not enough to live on. So we have created a third pension, called Pension Credit, which accounts for about a third of pensions received, and we wonder why people are confused. So our goal was stopping the rot first of all, letting the pension decline no longer but of course that comes with a price tag. So how do we tackle that? Well one of the things we announced was a review of state pension ages. As Julian mentioned, longevity has been growing. When the state pension age was set at 65, male life expectancy at birth was 64 and a bit. Cunning if you can get away with it. I now understand that male life expectancy at birth is 89 and a bit so I can today announce that the state pension age will be rising to 90 … no, sorry! [Laughter] But we do need to look at what’s been going on. We are still at 65. Reform has come up with their own proposals and they are very welcome to do so. I always look at submissions with great care for fresh ideas. I could not sleep last night because I have been chewing on Reform’s specific proposal, and I quote, that ‘the retirement age for females should increase at the rate of 12 months for every calendar year’. Now I have read that sentence seven times now and I think it means we are I now understand that going to ban retirement male life expectancy at which is taking austerity birth is 89 and a bit so a bit far probably but I I can today announce that kind of know what you the state pension age will mean. Certainly we are be rising to 90 … no, sorry! going to have to look at raising state pension ages and we have decided on an immediate look at 66. We are going to bring that one forward, and then consider in the longer term what should follow from that. So we need to make sure that people get the pension at the right age and that it is a decent pension when they get it. The crucial thing is that increasingly the state pension regime is becoming more flat rate. So we have an essentially flat rate basic pension which increasingly women coming up to pension age will get in full as well. That has not always been the case. The second tier which historically, Barbara Castle and SERPs was meant to be very earnings related but the new second tier is gradually becoming more and more and more flat rate and on present policies over the next couple of decades we will have a flat rate basic pension and eventually another flat rate pension on top of that and that raises questions in my mind. But we are heading towards flat rate provision with more and more people in the second tier because contracting out is, well, contracting I suppose. Then the question is, and one of the questions for this session, is how do we enable people to handle risk against that backdrop and it seems to me that if the state provides people with a firm foundation, they will have greater confidence to take risk because they know whatever happens they have got the foundation. So in a world where more pensions are going to be defined contribution, where you do not know what you are going to get, what you get depends on what the stock markets are doing when you retire, it will depend on how long people are living when you retire – there is a lot more uncertainty in the future than there has been in the past which actually funnily enough makes the case for a firm foundation from the state stronger. A decent state pension then becomes the foundation on which people will have greater confidence to move into a defined contribution pension world. We therefore need to encourage people to save and also protect the vulnerable who can’t save. So how are we going to encourage saving? Well we know that probably more than half the workforce now is not saving significantly for their retirement. It is estimated that getting on for ten million people aren’t saving enough, many millions of those work for a company and either aren’t in the scheme that the company provides or there is no pension at all and the plan to which the coalition is committed is to move ahead with what’s called auto enrolment which is to say over a phased period, people who join a company will automatically be put into a pension scheme, either one the company runs if it is good enough or what’s called NEST, the national scheme that is a sort of default option for people to go into. We set up a three month review to test if that is going to work effectively, we are committed absolutely to the principle of automatic enrolment and the idea Julian and I were talking about, this idea of nudging people.You put people in and they can still opt out, it’s not mandatory but once people are in a lot of people can’t be bothered to opt out or will see they get tax relief or see they get employer contribution and will start think, actually maybe this isn’t such a bad thing. We think this could transform the pensions landscape fairly quickly. Estimates of anything between five and nine million people going in to new pension saving because of this, so we will have a firm state foundation and then an automatically enrolled supplement to that or occupational provision as people have. One of the things that our review will be looking at is the idea of NEST. That is to say historically the market hasn’t been interested, not just with people at the bottom but people in the middle, the market hasn’t provided pension products that are suitable for those people but as part of the review we have asked our review team to say is there a market solution we should be looking at or is NEST the best way forward? Our conclusion from all of this is certainly that the role of the state is not to remove the need for individual responsibility and indeed the role of the state is to avoid putting structures in place which depress individual responsibility which is what mass means testing does. What we need is a complementary system, the state playing its part with a firm foundation and then something on which people can build so when they save they know they are going to be better off and they can save with confidence. That’s the goal and that I think is a constructive and better way forward than where we’ve come from. Thank you very much. Julian Le Grand: Thank you very much indeed, Steve. I’m quite relieved the pension age isn’t going up to 90! We now have Tim Breedon, he is the Group Chief Executive of Legal and General and has been since 2006, he looks remarkably well on it I must say given what’s happened to the financial sector during that time! He is also about to take on the even more challenging role as Chairman of the Association of British Insurers so I believe he is going to look at the extent to which the private insurers might help complement some of the insurance problems that the state will face. Tim, over to you. Tim Breedon: Listening to the Budget last week and the Secretary of State this morning, it is very clear I think that welfare will be at the heart of the programme to reduce the deficit and get the economy back into balance and the challenge is absolutely huge in two different ways. The sheer scale of the spending reduction that has got to be made, taking about a quarter of the spend out of our £200 billion budget over the next four to five years and the need to do so in a way that makes lasting policy improvements to the way we handle welfare dependency. The Secretary of State says he intends to reform the system by slowing withdrawal rates and ending the anomalies and traps which keep people out of work and on benefits and he has thought long and hard about it in Opposition and I would support the approach that his Centre for Social Justice has set out, as I hope that any sensible observer would. Of course reform has spending implications, for example the Centre for Social Justice cited an initial cost of £2.7 billion would be incurred in slowing withdrawal rates as part of a move towards a simplified dynamic benefits system, though it would reap rewards over time. Squaring this with the need to reduce the overall bill will be the challenge for Iain and his team and I hope they will give serious consideration to greater use of risk sharing and to partnership in particular with the private sector to achieve these goals. The insurance sector is particularly able and has the capacity to play a role here. Much of the work we do already as insurers overlaps with that of the DWP, we fundamentally do the same things – social security provision is itself a form of state insurance with premiums being paid through tax, rather than to a company like Legal and General. Now we know that there are benefit recipients for whom the state will have to pick up the bill, there is no one else to do so, these are the neediest cases and it is right and proper that the government provides at least a basic standard of living for those people. www.reform.co.uk 43 Reforming welfare / Reform But as the Budget made clear, there are many more middle income households on earnings over £30,000 who benefit from DWP spending. It feels inevitable that they will have to bear the brunt of spending cuts and I think we can help here in two ways. First, by encouraging greater complementary take up of insurance either direct from customers or particularly through their employers. This way cover can be arranged which provides necessary funding for families and individuals in the event of bereavement, critical illness or unemployment, reducing the risk of those individuals falling back on the state. We are talking here about individuals who can afford the premiums in the good times and who can therefore avoid becoming future rather than current claimants on the state and this is something that already works well for example in products like group risk where employers arrange cover which pays out when an employee is sick and unable to work. This is the model we have in pensions where people incentivise through the tax system to complement their entitlement to state pension with private pension savings. We should be exploring other areas where this principle could be applied. The second way is by transferring cover from the state to the private sector. An estimate by Deloitte in 2007 suggested there was an addressable risk market, they called it, of £340 billion consisting of individual and occupational pensions, accident and health cover, income protection and £8 billion motor insurance for example, which is entirely a private sector product. Of this addressable risk market the state has 65 per cent and the private sector has 35 per cent. Shifting the balance by 5 per cent towards the private sector would We are talking here about take some £17 billion individuals who can afford off DWP spending on 2007 the premiums in the good based numbers, and 5 per times and who can cent of course is a therefore avoid becoming massive number but future rather than current even a far smaller shift in the balance, affecting claimants on the state what I call the top tier of welfare state client base, would be very meaningful considering the big numbers involved. My suggestion today is that this kind of transfer could deliver the funding needed for a really fundamental reform of the benefits system, ending the absurd marginal rates of tax paid by claimants when they try to get into the world of work and live independently of the state. Could the insurance sector deliver? Well provided there was a commercial rate of return, I believe it could, to save the £2.7 billion the Secretary of State needs to implement the Centre for Social Justice proposals for example requires less than a 1 per cent shift in the balance from public to private provision and when we, the private sector, occupy less than 5 per cent of the combined accident and health and income protection markets for the state having 95 per cent, the capacity is definitely there. So we want to help, we are able to help and I like to think that today we have seen the beginnings of a programme of co-operation and partnership to investigate areas where for mutual benefit, that’s the benefit of the policy holder, the claimant, the state and the taxpayer, we could deliver a better shape and implement some of the very sensible proposals that the Centre for Social Justice has put forward. Thank you. 44 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform Julian Le Grand: Thank you very much indeed, Tim. Andrew Harrop is our next speaker, he is Director of Policy and Public Affairs at Age UK. He joined Age Concern England in 2003 and has led the charity’s policy on employment and equality. He has worked previously at the New Policy Institute and as a research assistant for Ann Campbell. He has got a degree from the LSE which is clearly his major qualification. Andrew Harrop: Thank you very much Julian. Let me start for a moment to talk about people in the decade or so leading up to pension age and then I’ll talk about post pension age as well. Actually there are an awful lot in that age group who are not in the formal state system but are out of work, exactly the sort of people we just heard about who are in one way or another finding resources from insurance or savings or whatever and that’s a group that is often forgotten about when we talk about increasing the numbers in work. We rightly focus on the welfare system and people on benefits. There are also an awful lot of people on inactive benefits in their 50s and early 60s and when we focus on benefit reform, welfare reform, we need to see the system through the prism of people in their mid-50s onwards who have been out of work for a long time. If we can get the reforms that the Secretary of State talked about earlier to work for people between 55 and 65, we can get them to work for everyone. But we mustn’t create a system which isn’t effective with people having low skills, poor health, potentially also facing age discrimination and of course what we know about the labour market at the moment where there simply may not be the jobs available. So we are entirely supportive of the principles we’ve heard today but the devil is in the detail. We need to make sure that they work for the over 50s, particularly so because almost without being noticed we started a major change in our welfare system back in April when we started to increase the women’s pension age and also the age at which you must actively participate in the labour market to get most benefits, which rises with the women’s state pension age. The DWP and its contractors have no experience of an active labour market policy for people in their 60s and we will see this rise over the next few years and it is the success of working with people in their 60s, I would argue, that should be the main driving factor for how quickly we increase the state pension age. If we cannot work with people detached from the labour market in their early 60s up to 65 then we need to think very carefully before increasing the pension age to 66. So that is, if you like, the key judgement factor on how quickly you should increase the state pension age. We agree that broadly speaking the state pension age needs to reflect growing longevity but again the devil is in the detail. Turning to pensions and people over the state pension age, our view is that there has been a wave of pension reform from the last Government, attracting broad cross party support, brought together by Adair Turner’s Pension Commission which was a non-party process and much of that sets us on a good track for the future and an affordable track for the future. We will see the pension system, the state pension system, consuming a slightly higher share of GDP than it does today, but that’s a managed growth path which over a 50 year period is our capability to afford. Compared to the huge swings in public spending up and down we’ve seen over the last year, demographics in the pension system is nothing to be worried about. However, our view is that the pension system we have inherited from the previous government is if you like a bare minimum and we are ambitious to go much further than that and that’s where the relationship between the private sector and the state is so important. We want to see what Steve talked about – that firm, clear, transparent state platform for everyone to save on, we think the way to do that is to bring the two pension systems Steve talked a When we focus on benefit basic state pension and the second pension, reform, welfare reform, as it once was we need to see the system SERPS – together to provide a through the prism of single high universal payment which is the people in their mid-50s onwards who have been platform for everyone’s But on top of out of work for a long time saving. that it is absolutely the role of employers, the private sector and the state in terms of framing the choices through the large economics we’ve heard talked about, to focus individual responsibility. We are never going to have a system that provides everyone with the sorts of replacement ratios that they really should be expecting for themselves, merely through the state system. I also want to mention long term care because I think we are much further behind, in a very similar set of difficult issues between the balance between private and public sector here. Arguably we won’t in the current climate be able to afford the sort of universal, available to everyone system that the previous government was talking about so you’d have free personal care with if you like a state organised payment system. If you look at the numbers on care and support and the demographics of it, it will be a huge job for the tax payer to simply provide really good quality care for people within the current means tested system. That will itself require a large increase in spending so I would suggest that the private sector provides many of the answers for people outside the lowest income groups in terms of ensuring for their future care needs and indeed in terms of other ways of saving or tapping into capital that they have already got and we are really keen that this new Care Commission looks for new solutions, working with the private sector rather than just the previous government, if you like, very state organised proposal. Finally because it is a Reform platform, I just wanted to say something about what is referred to as middle class welfare, the universal payments that have been criticised, particularly the winter fuel payment and the free bus pass. The context for those payments is that we have the least generous basic universal state pension in the developed world so to see individual chunks of the welfare state and take them apart is very easy and we can have that debate but if you don’t look at it in the round and what the whole pension system looking to achieve, I think we’ll lose sight, you know, the wood from the trees. If our whole pension system is not there to tackle pension poverty and improve the replacement ratio from lifetime earnings, then it will be failing and we think that winter fuel payment is a really important payment given that the basic state pension today is set at such a low level. Thank you very much. Julian Le Grand: Thank you Andrew. We have a little time for Q&A, the Minister is a little constrained for time but has just indicated to me that we don’t necessarily need to cut things very short for that. So we will take two or three questions at a time and proceed from there. Andrew Haldenby: Hello, Andrew Haldenby. A question for Tim. I am personally all in favour of the agenda that you set out but one question that has been raised about it is the sense that there is a cost to savers in accessing products from companies such as your own, the charges associated with savings and pension products, also a complexity, even a product as simple as an ISA is too complex for many people. So my sense is that if companies such as your own are able to reduce the costs of your products and perhaps work with regulators to produce more simple products, then it will aid what you are trying to achieve and I wondered if I was right about that. Chris Melvin: Chris Melvin from Reed in Partnership. We, among other things, provide services for the Department for Work and Pensions and I just wanted to bring together the point about pensions and work. The oldest person we have placed into work was 87, he is called William and he works two days a week in the Tate in Liverpool. One of the concerns I have with pension reform is we see pensions work and social services in different silos and actually they all link across, they all have an effect on one another so Bill may well be a healthier person because he’s working and have less demand on other social services, but The oldest person we have equally he might placed into work was 87, possibly be penalised through the means he is called William and testing that other things he works two days a week take on board. So I wonder, in terms of the in the Tate in Liverpool more medium term reform, what solutions there might be to encourage people to work longer but still save for their retirement during perhaps their middle ages? James Bartholemew: James Bartholemew. This is a question for Steve Webb, I wonder what you really think of the pension credit, it appears to be a means tested benefit with a lot of bad aspects to it, a lot of elderly people won’t actually get round to claiming it so some of the poorest people won’t get it, it discourages saving. Are you going to get rid of it or will you think about it? Julian Le Grand: Tim, perhaps you could start off on the complexity question. Tim Breedon: I completely agree with the sentiments. Legal and General, as you probably know, has long been a pioneer of low cost and simple insurance and savings products. When one looks at the cost and complexity of these www.reform.co.uk 45 Reforming welfare / Reform products, these are not choices of the manufacturer, the costs are largely costs of distribution, particularly the cost of advice and the cost of regulation. The way to get cheaper products to people is to make them simple, make them repeatable so that the same product can be sold to multiple numbers of people and to do it in high volume without also having to bear other people’s costs, possibly in some cases over engineered costs for the type of product or customer that we’re talking about. These are particularly important in the area of distribution and regulation which I think is something that the government through the reformed FSA really needs to look at. Otherwise I’m afraid however cheaply and simply we manufacture our products, we won’t get simple products at the right price to the right customers in the right way. Julian Le Grand: Steve, medium term savings and pension credit? Steve Webb: Yes, delighted to hear that Chris has got some 87 year olds back to work. We visited Asda with Iain Duncan Smith last week and the 76 year old meeter and greeter was there and explained that frankly it gave him something to get out of bed for in the morning and I said how long do you plan to carry on for and he said, ‘til I drop. But that’s not official government policy I have to say! [Laughter] Good job this is all off the record isn’t it! You do make an important point about the links between work and so on, there are clear beneficial effects for people who want to work longer. One of the things that we want to do very quickly is to get rid of mandatory retirement. That is all part of the cultural shift. At the moment it is illegal to sack someone for being female or disabled but it’s fine to sack someone for being old. That’s outrageous and we want to get rid of that as quickly as we can and I think raising the state pension age sends clear signals. We have got so used to 65, indeed 60, it is part of the national psyche. Once that number starts changing, once it becomes illegal to sack people for being over 65, I think we will start thinking about these things differently. But I take Andrew’s point that the Department will want to do a lot more with potential older workers and to do that as effectively as we can. On James’s point about pension credit, it seems to me that the goal has got to be – and I take the criticisms that you make – the goal has got be to get people to retirement with enough to live on, not let them end up retiring poor and then try and catch them through a means test and this is far too many people. So the structure has got to tackle the cause to try and make sure people are saving more wherever they can, make sure they are building up a decent flat rate state pension. I think you will always need a residual means test for say disabled people or people who for whatever reason weren’t able to save, but my long term goal would be that means testing should be the exception rather than the norm. Andrew Harrop: I completely agree with the points on means testing but we do have this delicate balance. If you pay universal benefit you get criticised for it being given to the wrong people. If you tightly means test it you have all the 46 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform disincentives and all the lack of take up, so a gradual shift to more universal provision that is a basic building block for everyone. But clearly during the present fiscal situation means testing is very important because it means that people that would otherwise be in severe poverty are protected. Chris’s point on employment, the pension system and the social care system coming together, I totally agree and actually it will become easier I think with the move local government is making in terms of paying personal budgets rather than commissioning traditional services where care and support will look a lot more like social security in the future and hopefully that will mean it is much easier to have a much more integrated approach to thinking about. Julian Le Grand: Thank you, if we can have another few questions. Actually I’ll just abuse my position and ask one quick question of Steve – well it’s not really a quick question but I’m sure the answer will be quick! A particular interest of mine has always been tax relief on private pensions which is very costly, is highly regressive and is not transparent. We do need a form of government aid for private provision, I would prefer to see something like a matching grant system, but does he think there is any scope for reform of the tax relief system? Somebody else? Yes, the lady there. Deidre Boyd: Hi, Deidre Boyd, the Addiction Recovery Foundation. Just a question to put Tim Breedon on the spot. A highly disproportionate number of the long term unemployed have alcohol and drug problems which may be chicken and egg or may not be. To my knowledge there is only one insurance company in this country that will cover people actually getting appropriate treatment Tax relief and private so they can actually get pensions which is very into work, so that costly, is highly regressive back they can go to rehab. and is not transparent Would Legal and General be prepared or does it have something I don’t know about, but would it be prepared, to offer addiction cover for people? Julian Le Grand: That is a tough question. At the back there. Anna Wallace: Hi, Anna Wallace, Charted Institute of Personnel and Development.You touched very briefly, Minister, on auto enrolment and we have seen speculation in the press about the review. I just wondered if you could confirm or deny any rumours that the Government is considering opting certain groups out of the scheme, for example older workers or small businesses. Julian Le Grand: Okay, should we just ask Tim to address the issue about addiction first. Tim Breedon: The clear interest of the individual, the employer and society is to get people who are moving towards confronting issues which may lead to increasing difficulties to work, to get to those issues early. So addiction, it may be things like stress or mental illness, because these are the things where if you intervene early and can deal with the causes, you are alerted to the causes, you have the capacity to deal with those causes at an early stage, you will keep people off Incapacity Benefit for the long term because the number of people who move from what appears to be quite a short term need in terms of ability to work to long term unemployment or incapacity, unemployability, is just too high, too high. The way this is provided very well is by the group Risk Providers, including Legal and General, who do intervene very early alongside companies to deal with employees with those issues and addiction might be one of those issues. They do make available large amounts of expertise and large amounts of support to try and get these employees back I just wondered if you to work. The reason we could confirm or deny do this, firstly, it is not any rumours that the all altruistic. Clearly the Government is considering claims are lower if we opting certain groups out get people back to work of the scheme, for example but it is also very good for the individual older workers or small because as we were businesses hearing earlier today, a long period out of the workplace makes it very difficult for people to re-engage with employment and it is clearly good for society in terms of economic potential and also avoiding some of these cultural issues regarding unemployment and incapacity that we heard about today. So all of these things are happening in this area. As regards the individual side of the product, these are individuals buying insurance products for income protection. I will have to come back to you and let you know exactly what it is that we do cover under what circumstances but certainly, and I think very properly, is covered by pooling risk. Julian Le Grand: Steve, tax relief and auto enrolment. Steve Webb: On tax relief, the previous Government’s plans to restrict high rate tax relief and the particular way that was going to be done raised a number of concerns and so the Budget announced instead that our colleagues at the Treasury will be consulting on an annual cap of between £30,000 and £45,000 on the contributions that are tax relieved and obviously that will tackle to some extent the regressive nature of the existing subsidy. The Treasury said they wanted to cut the amount of relief by essentially the same amount as restriction relief would have done but through this mechanism, so it will be less regressive as a result. But in the longer term the Treasury are very much talking in the language of restoring a savings culture after a decade of runaway consumer expenditure and debt, government debt. The idea that we get back into the idea of savings is going to be a big agenda for them and matching I’m sure is something that will be looked at in that context. On Anna’s question about the scope of the review, the terms of reference that have been given to the review are to look at the scope of auto enrolment so the terms of reference refer to things you mention, so looking at particular age groups, looking at size of firm, looking at income levels and so on. Simply to say, the version of auto enrolment that we’ve come up with or inherited is pretty much as comprehensive as it could be and we’ve simply asked the question, is it right for all of those groups? If the review comes and says well yes, actually there is a good reason for being comprehensive, then we will go with that so there is no confirm or deny. Those are the things we’ve asked them to look at and we will make a judgement later in the year. Julian Le Grand: Just time for one or two more quick questions, yes, the gentleman there. Aaron Barbour: Good morning, my name is Aaron Barbour from Community Links. We’re a local charity just a little further east, working with many of the people we’ve been talking about today. Just a very specific point, just picking up on your last point, Minister, around savings and in terms of our culture, particularly through people that are working. I understand that in the Budget you just cut the savings gateway roll out. Surely that was shown to actually be a very valuable model in engendering that culture of savings. What else are you thinking about to put in its place, not just for people reaching retirement but for people much further down the age scale? Julian Le Grand: Can I also mention the cutting of the Child Trust Fund. Yes? Helen McAnally: Hello, I am Helen McAnally from Parkhouse Bell. I own and operate two businesses, one in England and one in Australia and despite my accent I am British. I am not quite sure why the UK just doesn’t adopt the system in Australia in terms of superannuation. Perhaps the Minister should go out in the next quarter on a fact finding mission to Australia, before it gets too hot, and have a look at the system because in a nutshell it is very simple, it’s transparent, it has been around for about 13 years. Pension contributions are compulsory from both the employer and the employee and it seems to me despite it costing me money as a business owner, it works. Julian Le Grand: Okay, I think we’ll close it there. So Great Barrier Reef calling Steve and Savings Gateway and Child Trust Fund. Steve Webb: I must say, I have been thinking since I was appointed that we need to have more reciprocal pension arrangements with the Caribbean, so that’s on the list! On Aaron’s perfectly fair question about how do you encourage savings, one of the things that we’re keen to look at is that pension saving tends to be terribly all or nothing. It tends to be tie your money up and you can’t touch it again for forty years. I think whereas there are some people for whom that is quite reassuring, don’t let me touch it otherwise I might touch it kind of thing, I think there is another set of people who would actually www.reform.co.uk 47 Reforming welfare / Reform be willing to save if there was a safety valve in the system that said actually if there was a crisis or if I need some cash, I can access some of that. So one of the things we want to look at is what we call early access, so the idea is that with a pension fund, when they retire people tend to take a quarter of it as a cash lump sum. Very often it never gets turned into a pension, you never pay tax on it, people spend it on what they want to. At the moment, say you were 40 and about to be repossessed because you are £5,000 in mortgage arrears, you could have far more than that in a pension fund, not be allowed to touch it, lose your house, a very valuable asset that could give you a real standard of living in retirement. Why shouldn’t you potentially be able to access part of your pension fund early, with limits, but access early? The question in my mind is we are going to auto enrol getting on for ten million people shortly and they are going to have to decide whether to stay in pensions or come out and I think they may be more attracted to staying in if the product is less terrifying, less all or nothing, more flexible. Many of the people who we will auto enrol are just the people we are talking about, they are part timers, people in temporary jobs, just the people who are under pensioned and under saving so it may be one of the things we can do there. Helen’s question about Australia. I think I’m right in saying, correct me if I’m wrong, when the system of compulsory pension contributions was introduced in Australia, I think I’m right in saying, there was centralised pay bargaining which means there was an across the board hold down on pay so that it wasn’t perceived – you’re nodding, which is reassuring – in other words, something that I don’t think we could do in this country. It was accepted at first because it wasn’t perceived to be a direct tax taken out of people’s pay, pay was held down and the money went into the pensions, which I think probably smoothed the transition. We are going to be going quite a long way in the direction you are describing, it will be interesting to see where we go from there but I am very keen to learn from other country’s examples, the Kiwi Saver in New Zealand being an obvious parallel as well to some extent with what we are doing but also the institutional arrangements are often very different so they don’t always translate directly. The other issue of course is the whole sort of pay to save issue. If the state forces you to save and then you discover at the end that you are no better off because we means test it away from you, that raises quite different issues whereas I think that may again be less in the Australian insurance context. Julian Le Grand: Okay, well I feel we have to close now. Coffee is going to be held at the back of the auditorium but before that I would like to thank our speakers very much. We had a really substantive session with some real substance in both the talks and in the question and answer session. So thank you all very much and over to coffee. The unemployment challenge Patrick Nolan: Thank you for returning to what is the final session for the day, hopefully you have had a good fix of caffeine, not that you’ll need it because we are about to deal with 48 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform some incredibly important and real issues here, we are going to talk about the unemployment challenge. As we all know we have just been through a major recession and one of the implications of that is that it does have important consequences for the labour market. The private sector labour market has been very weak over the past years, it is starting to strengthen now, but we are starting to see a public sector recession developing and that is going to have important implications for unemployment as well. So given that it is an incredibly important discussion to have and we almost couldn’t have a better panel to discuss it, so I am very pleased that we have Yvette Cooper who brings incredible political experience, being a former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions but also has studied at Oxford, Harvard and the LSE – Julian Le Grand, who has gone now, would be very pleased! We have also got David Banks who is the Group Managing Director of G4S Care and Justice Service and Chris Melvin who is the Chief Executive of Reed in Partnership and of course Janet Daley, who among other things writes for the Sunday Telegraph. Thank you, over to you Yvette. Yvette Cooper: I think this is a hugely timely debate and not in fact because of the new Government but because of the time we’ve reached now in the economic cycle, having come through the recession, but also the experiences now if we look back on what happened in the 80s and 90s recessions, understanding that actually this is the critical moment when it comes to addressing unemployment and particularly long term unemployment as well. The reason that I say that is if you look back at what happened after the 80s and 90s recessions, once the economy started to grow, that was actually the time at which long term unemployment really grew and in fact unemployment kept rising for years after the recession finished. In the 1980s, youth unemployment rose for four years after the recession finished and that was when the real damage was done in terms of the kind of long term unemployed that actually scarred the whole nation for many generations, had particular damage for some communities where you saw the long term scars from long term unemployment having an effect on wider communities and families as well. So that’s why I think we should never let that happen again. This is a critical moment and what we do now really matters. What I wanted to do was just reflect a little on the approach that Labour took over the last 13 years, what made a difference, what didn’t, what had the greatest impact over the past period and the I think this is a hugely approach that we took. timely debate and not in Secondly to respond to fact because of the new what I think is a deeply Government but because damaging approach of the time we’ve reached that I think that the now in the economic cycle new Tory Liberal Government is taking and the potential risk that they are taking and the scars that they could be creating now for future new generations and then, thirdly, to just say something about what I think is the approach we should now take in the new circumstances and what should be the way forward now. The approach we took, I think, to unemployment was at the heart of the welfare reforms and the changes that we made after 1997.You can look at some of the most immediate things that we did as a new Government after 1997 as the introduction of the New Deal. It was an approach to tackling unemployment but also wider worklessness that said that work is the best route out of poverty. It is also the route to supporting human dignity, supporting communities and that it is a worthwhile thing, that everybody who can work should be working and that those who can’t work, maybe those who might be able to work again in the future, should still be kept close to the labour market, should still be keeping up their skills, should be supported so that they can get back into work in future. In order to do that what we needed was both more opportunities and more support, but also stronger conditions on people, stronger requirements on people to take up the work and the opportunities that were on offer and as well as looking at the problems that individuals faced, whether that be around child care, whether it be around low skills, whether it be around attitudes towards employment and work experience but also looking at the wider issues around communities, so the regeneration that was required. The fact is that some areas, including areas in my constituency, simply had too few jobs and needed the regeneration as well. That was the approach throughout so what were the things that we did? I have talked about the New Deal, the first New Deal for Young People was set up. No fifth option, there were four options you could take up in terms of voluntary work, working for a community taskforce, jobs in the economy or training, but there was no fifth option. After six months you would be offered these options, you would have to take one of them up otherwise your benefit would be cut. That was the first time that that had been made so explicit as part of the employment programmes. We started with young people but it was an approach that we then extended and started to build across the welfare state. We also brought together the benefits agencies and the job centres into Jobcentre Plus, and I don’t think that anybody should underestimate the significance of that reform because it brought together for the first time the people who were advising about people’s benefit claims and the money people were getting, alongside the people who were advising about what should you do to look for work, what should you do to get back into employment, what were the skills that you might need. Bringing those together into a single agency was a very effective reform and we shouldn’t underestimate the impact that that had actually during the current recession when it really proved its worth as well. We then also had a series of different employment programmes which evolved over time. We took quite a pragmatic approach to the delivery. We have had the development of the Flexible New Deal, the new approach to contracting and to private sector incentives, alongside the additional support during the recession, things like the Future Jobs Fund, the Youth Guarantee as well and then other areas for lone parents, the gradual roll out of conditions for lone parents with children over seven to start looking for work but also the support for child care, Child Care Tax Credits, and for sickness benefit claims the reassessment of everyone on sickness benefits. That’s an area I think we should have started earlier with the new assessment for sickness benefit claimants and alongside support to get people back into work as well. It is welcomed that the new Government have said they will implement those reforms that we had started a couple of years ago. We also had reforms to improve the incentives for people to work, particularly the Tax Credits and the Minimum Wage, to make sure that people were better off in work and then of course tackling the wider causes, things like Sure Start, the Neighbourhood and Community Regeneration, looking at housing, Regional Development Agencies and some of the family intervention projects that were addressing the problems for the most difficult families. So those were the measures we put in place, how did we get on? If you look at the areas around unemployment, what happened during the recession I think is very interesting because it was very, very different from previous recessions. Despite the huge global recession we Bringing those together faced, despite the huge into a single agency was drop in growth and GDP, we actually only a very effective reform had the claimant count and we shouldn’t rise to 5 per cent at the underestimate the impact most compared to 10 per cent in the 80s and that that had actually 90s recession, so it was during the current much, much lower. It recession when it really was also much lower proved its worth than everybody expected, currently I think around three quarters of a million lower than people had predicted even just over a year ago and that saves money, saving around £15 billion over the next four years as a result of keeping unemployment lower. A lot of that I think is to do with the work that the Jobcentre Plus has done. It is partly about changes in the wider economy and the work that firms did in order to keep hold of labour but also it is about the work of Jobcentre Plus because people have been staying on unemployment benefit for much shorter than in previous recessions. They have been leaving unemployment benefit, going back into work and back into things much faster than in previous recessions as well. Contrast that to the 1980s recession when actually because no extra investment was put in to provide that same Jobcentre support, conditionality, requirements on people – they had to keep looking for things – as a result what you had was the condition to look for work in the 1980s was actually made voluntary for a whole period because the support was not put in to the Jobcentre staff to actually make sure that people were meeting the requirements to keep looking for work. We have also got long term unemployment which is now about a quarter of the level that it was in the 80s and 90s as well. The areas that have been more difficult have been around the sickness benefits and I think that we should have started some of those reforms earlier. They are making a big difference now. Although we stopped what was a thirty year increase of people on long term sickness benefits, it is still too high and I think there are more people who could move in to work if they have got the right kind of support. We were more successful around lone parents, things like the New Deal for Lone Parents and child care made a big difference, there are a www.reform.co.uk 49 Reforming welfare / Reform lot more lone parents in work and a lot more children lifted out of poverty as a result but also some difficulty around the complexity of the benefits system, although in practice things like the Tax Credit and the Minimum Wage have made a lot of people substantially better off in work. Because of the complexity of things like tax credits and housing benefit and the interaction between them, for a lot of people they will perceive they are not better off in work, they are worried about moving in to work and worried about losing things like housing benefit or free school meals as a result. So what do we do next and what are the challenges now? At this stage in the recovery the challenges aren’t just on the supply side, it is not just about what you do to It is also about what you help the workless, to help the long term do to make sure there unemployed back into are actually jobs in the work. It is also about economy for people to go what you do to make to and that currently is the sure there are actually jobs in the economy for most severe risk of all people to go to and that currently is the most severe risk of all. We have already seen the Office for Budget Responsibility saying that this Budget increases the number of people unemployed by up to 100,000, reduces the level of employment, the number of jobs in the economy by 100,000 as a consequence of the Budget but actually even that may be based on some heroic assumptions. We saw the things that were in The Guardian today, that actually what they are predicting are hundreds and thousands of jobs in both the private sector as well as the public sector being lost as a result of the £40 billion additional cuts that are being put into place. Also there are some really heroic assumptions that 2.5 million private sector jobs are going to be created, again based on some incredibly heroic assumptions about the expansion in business investment and the expansion in exports that are on a scale we have never seen in decades of our history. That is what they are assuming is going to drive the growth in the economy, the private sector growth and the growth of the new jobs. I just think it is utterly unrealistic and it is a massive risk therefore to assume that’s going to happen, to assume these jobs are going to come and to simultaneously take real substantive actions that are going to cut jobs in both the private and the public sector. The approach they seem to be taking is that ultimately a short term hit like this will be worth it because then the economy will grow, but that misunderstands the labour market. Unemployment scars. If you keep people unemployed for a long time, if you keep people out of work right now because you are putting the economy through a tough time but it’ll be all right in the future, when you get to that future you will find that a lot of those people have been so scarred they will find it much more difficult to get back into work. That was the experience of the 80s and 90s and I think it is an approach where they are saying in the 90s it was unemployment is a price worth paying in order to get inflation down, now it is unemployment is a price worth paying in order to cut the deficit. Actually it will be counter-productive because we will pay the cost of that higher unemployment for years to come. 50 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform Briefly, I want to say something about the approach on the supply side because I think it is tragic that they have cut things like the Future Jobs Fund which was providing temporary jobs, support, real jobs and work for people during a difficult time, during the recession. Far better for those young people to be in jobs than on the dole, far better for them but also far better for the rest of us, far better for the economy, far better for our future as well. All cut. Billions of pounds cut from those employment programmes at a time when we should be supporting people, keeping people close to the labour market. The consequence of course is that they have cut the conditions as well because if you can’t guarantee people a job, you can’t require people to take it up. So that is deeply disruptive I think. Secondly, they are saying they are going to have the Work Programme in its place. The Work Programme is not going to be in place until at least next summer, we haven’t seen the details yet but there are some key components missing. There are no reassurances that this is actually going to include guaranteed work or guaranteed training for everyone or about how they are going to avoid having people parked because the incentive to help everybody as opposed to simply those who are going to be most valuable and most cost effective to get back in to work. There is no clear clue as to how they are doing it. I think there is a considerable risk to the contracting structure which may well mean this is not value for money because of the massive scale for such huge work programme contracts going ahead without doing the testing. The pilots that we had put in place to properly test these approaches simply seem to have just been ditched in the name of a kind of ideological approach which is just get this in place fast and not, as I said, doing the guarantees. The approach to benefit reform – I would welcome something which aimed at benefit simplification but we looked at this and found that actually some of these things were hugely costly or they massively cut benefits for a lot of people. The approach has been taken that says let’s slash Housing Benefit for people who can’t find a job within a year, at the same time as cutting the jobs for them to go to. I just think this is mean and nasty as well as being hugely counterproductive for the economy as well. Of course finally, cutting things like the Regional Development Agencies and the support that will actually get the jobs into the deprived areas. So finally, what should we do now? I think we should take, first of all, a different approach to supporting the economy. Don’t do the extra £40 billion cuts, I just think it’s madness. Secondly, to have an approach that says what we should do is increasingly try to build on the work of the Youth Guarantee, guarantee people jobs or training but in return a requirement to take them up. So rather than simply just guaranteeing people a bit of advice, actually say if you haven’t been able to find work, if you have been playing by the rules, you have been doing your bit, then ultimately through things like the Future Jobs Fund there is guaranteed work for you, maybe in the community and the voluntary sector, but you have got to take it up. Also we had looked at a couple of areas which we thought were cheaper ways of doing the same kind of work incentives which is to have a better off in work guarantee. So you just guarantee that everybody will be £40, £50 a week better off and without trying the massive reform of all of the benefit system, which could prove hugely expensive as a result and also extending Housing Benefit, having housing benefit run on so that when you move in to work you have extended housing benefit periods as well. I think there is more that could be done, which the Work Programme may do, has the capacity to do, around some of the personalised approaches, including looking at families and I think there is potential for it to do that. So overall I think that you have to learn lessons of the last 13 years and some of the lessons of things that really did work compared to what happened in the 80s and 90s were around unemployment. Some of the things where we were too slow were in some areas around Incapacity Benefit. It’s good that they are being taken forward now but what you have got to do now is combine the support and the conditions with making sure there is also job growth and at the moment what the new Government seems to be doing is slashing job growth, also slashing the support and job guarantees and simply trying to increase the conditions but with nothing for people to go to. That will be deeply destructive and I think it risks costing all of us more for many years to come. Thank you. David Banks: Good morning. First of all can I congratulate Reform on putting together such an interesting morning. It is certainly very timely and at G4S we are very pleased to be helping sponsor the event. There are currently five and a half million people of working age in the UK who do not have a job. I know that with the right support and funding we could help most of these people to find productive and sustainable work. This is as bit an opportunity as it is a challenge, halving worklessness in this country would directly transform the lives of two million people and their families. The state would save £20 billion a year in primary benefits alone and we would make enormous inroads into eradicating child poverty and kick starting social mobility. There simply doesn’t need to be the level of worklessness that we currently see in the UK. In my article in the magazine I set out three core areas where I think we could make a difference immediately and I would like to focus on the third area in this speech – leveraging the benefit savings that would be made by helping people into work by helping to generate those savings. It is in this area where I feel G4S has the most to offer. The DEL-AME challenge is often presented as a problem of funding, in order to help more people into employment we need to invest more upfront. Prime contractors will be paid back out of the benefits savings they achieve, this will happen at some point in the future so there is a short term need for capital. Indeed we heard those concerns from the voluntary sector in an earlier session and those concerns are really important to us because over 50 per cent of our delivery partners are from the third sector. I would suggest that the formulation of this problem is wrong, there is no funding challenge. Raising the capital required by the Work Programme is not in itself difficult, although the sums of money are large they are readily attainable by credible, stable, potential prime contractors so I think that the good news is that there is not currently a funding challenge as it is conceived. I do think however that there is a real challenge around getting the risk balance right. At present we collectively don’t know enough about how much it costs to help a long term employment support allowance claimant into work. Nobody knows how long this might take and nobody knows what levels of sustainability we might be able to achieve over say a three year period. Without that surety around costs and confidence of outcomes for this client group, it is difficult to justify up front funding. If DEL-AME looks more like a gamble than an investment then credible, stable, potential providers won’t take part. So I think the challenge is not about funding but about how we start to generate surety around costs and outcomes for this client group. I think the best way we can do this is experience. I would like to give my support to a discovery phase start to the Work Programme. This will allow prime contractors to generate the data needed to be reasonably confident about costs and outcome for this client group. A discovery phase period that properly shares risk and reward between prime contractors and the state would generate the data needed to erode the uncertainty which currently makes up so much of the risk in this market. A discovery phase would reduce the overall cost of the Work Programme, increase the amount of up front funding invested in the programme and encourage sensible stable organisations to compete, creating a sustainable functioning marketplace. The discovery phase can then be followed by a period of accelerated risk transfer to private contractors leading to a 100 per cent DEL-AME funded work programme down the line as our collective knowledge increases. One of the key questions we ask ourselves in G4S is how to generate as much initial investment as possible for the Work Programme whilst retaining a clear link to outcome payments to incentivise performance. Initial investment is maximised If DEL-AME looks more by de-risking future revenues. If investors like a gamble than an confidence they investment then credible, have will see a return on their stable, potential providers money, then they will won’t take part put that money in. If they feel that their money is at higher risk then they will not invest or at least not without very high returns. Sally Burton earlier commented on the response of the private equity industry who are actually back funding at 8 to 9 per cent. It looks really competitive as the risks are currently configured. There is a further level of uncertainty in Welfare to Work and that is the uncertainty generated by the macro economic benefits environment. Welfare to Work doesn’t exist in a vacuum, a growing macro economy with a large scale private sector job creation is a prerequisite for the success of any active labour market programme and at G4S we are working on designing contractual mechanisms that will help Government and prime contractors hedge against these external variables. In getting this right we can ensure that providers are only paid for outcomes that they caused and are not penalised for factors beyond their control. This is an area which genuinely excites us at G4S. Through the Work Programme we see a real opportunity to make a huge difference to the lives of a significant segment of our society. We look forward to contributing as fully as we can over the next months and years. Thank you. www.reform.co.uk 51 Reforming welfare / Reform Chris Melvin: Thanks David and thank you to Reform for giving me the opportunity to speak today. We are delighted we can take part in this. When people ask me what is it that Reed in Partnership does I like to say that we are in the restoration business because we restore hope, dignity and well-being for people through work. I think much of that has already been touched upon today. Work makes individuals generally more healthy, it supports communities. Children who come from working families are likely to do better at school and they are likely to earn more as adults and are less likely to be unemployed, so for all of us, work is important. When Reed in Partnership became the first private sector company to deliver the New Deal contract back in 1998, there was a lot of political noise about this, a lot of concern amongst other sectors as to the involvement of the private sector. In our latest programme in South Yorkshire we have a whole host of organisations working with us but our largest delivery partner is Barnsley Metropolitan Council and I think that says a lot about how far this market has come in the last 12 years that I have been involved. What I would like to look at very briefly today are some lessons from those 12 years and how we might apply that to the Work Programme going forward. The new coalition government, as we’ve heard, has announced an ambitious programme of reform in terms of both benefits and the structural employment support and previous contributions have focused on how that might work in terms of helping long term unemployed. My particular take is what has happened over the last 12 years and how can we learn from this, and I think one of the biggest challenges over the last decade has been partly a lack of consistency around employment support and partly a lack of learning lessons from that which has been taken forward. That’s not to decry at all the success that the previous Government had in this marketplace nor the contribution they made to ensuring that unemployment didn’t rise to previous levels during the recession, but having said that we did, over the last ten years, have some nine Secretaries of State at the Department of Work and Pensions,Yvette was one of those that was very good but they were a mixed bag if I’m going to be frank! I think it is important even if we do want to have that change in personnel at the very top, that there is a context in which all those engaged in the market can move forward. There is clearly a political desire for innovation but that needs to be based on learning from best practice and the Work Programme does provide, I believe, a genuinely new way forward and is an exciting development for the Welfare to Work industry. The creation of a single programme should not one of the biggest only simplify the challenges over the last employment support decade has been partly structure but could a lack of consistency allow providers to bring a much broader range around employment support and partly a lack of services to bear on unemployed people in a of learning lessons much more cost effective way. The correct development of the Work Programme therefore is crucial in terms of providing this country with an ongoing infrastructure in which to 52 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform tackle unemployment and for that reason many people in the sector welcome its introduction. To echo some of David’s contribution, it is important that it sets off on the right foot and many of the questions around this contracting framework are yet to be answered so in this respect I would urge one word of advice on Ministers and civil servants engaged in the development of the Work Programme. That is for this initial stage, simplicity. Let’s be simple about the funding mechanism when we start off.Yes, we can have risk and reward, we can have payment for results but it needs to be around value for money on the one hand and a programme which encourages investment from all sectors on the other hand. Let’s be simple about the way we measure success. It needs to be transparent, which providers are doing well. We need to be clear that it is long term sustainable jobs that we are rewarding and finally let’s be simplistic in engaging all stakeholders in the Work Programme – unemployed people, community groups, employers as well as providers because those other three key groups are just as important. There are lots of ideas in the current climate of excitement around streaming of customers, accelerated payments, the connection between price and performance, let’s just get something going which we know is going to deliver and for a period, maybe a year, allow providers to learn with Government so that that risk transfer that we’ve talked about can be done in an effective cost effective way. That way I think we’ll get the Work Programme off to a good start. Thank you. Janet Daley: As the very last speaker of this conference I think I am entitled to take something of an overview and I think I’ve been so impressed and rather moved actually today by the extraordinary enthusiasm and commitment and innovation that’s been presented here in terms of various ways of breaking the death grip of central Government on the sort of welfare and unemployment crisis and of the willingness to cross ideological boundaries between public and private sector which is very inspiring but as a caveat I would say that none of this – well perhaps that’s too strong, not much of this – is going to work unless we can alter the political culture and the discourse in which these problems are discussed. We seem to have got ourselves into a situation where being, as it’s called, ‘forced into looking for work’ or sometimes it’s described as being ‘forced into taking low paid jobs’ is seen as a form of punishment. That’s what you will do if you have lost the race, if you can’t persuade the state if you are deserving of being supported. Somehow the whole logic of what a previous generation would have taken for granted, which is that being self supporting, being responsible for your own life and your loved ones was a normal expectation of adult existence, that was the normal grown up expectation of what life was like. Somehow this has been lost, and unless we can re-establish it, unless we can return to a conception that not only is work the best route out of poverty but it is the normal condition for grownups. We have confused, I think, very often protecting the poor with protecting poverty so that the poor become a fixed entity, an immovable tranche of the population who must be protected, must be looked after, must be supported, must be treated as permanently vulnerable when in fact poverty should always be, especially in a reasonably dynamic economy or free market economy, a temporary condition. There is no shame in being poor, there is no shame in being unemployed, but it should always be temporary. The poor will always be with us but they shouldn’t be the same people. Which brings me back to this phrase about forcing people to take low paid jobs. Virtually all of the statistical evidence that has come out of the welfare reform programmes in America shows that when fairly stringent welfare reforms were brought in to play like Clinton’s 1996 Welfare Reform Act and so on, a great many people did take minimum wage jobs. There were far more people being pushed into minimum wage jobs but they didn’t stay in minimum wage jobs, they moved up the earnings ladder really relatively quickly and their places at the bottom were filled by other new recruits, it was a dynamic, organic growth of possibilities, of opportunities. So while there is a permanent tranche of people in America who are working in minimum wage jobs, in low wage jobs, they are not the same people and that is an extremely important consideration when we’re talking about protecting the poor. As often as not we end up protecting them from the only possibility of what we have all been hearing about this morning – self respect, self determination, the opportunity to fulfil ones potential but we are also protecting the poor, that is to say keeping them where they are, creating a terrible problem of social alienation which we’ve also been hearing about in great detail today and with great eloquence. As my personal hero, Arthur Laffer, said, if you pay people to be poor you will never run out of poor people. If you create We have confused, I think, disincentives to people very often protecting the coming out of poverty, make it much more poor with protecting poverty you difficult by removing their benefits in proportion to how much they earn, you are creating a situation in which it is a perfectly rational decision to remain unemployed. Rational but depressing, which is why the great increase in the number of people who are claiming incapacity benefit comes from stress and depression. The tabloid notoriety of this is that these people are scrounging or that their depression is a phoney complaint and it isn’t, being long term unemployed is very depressing and once you get classified as officially clinically depressed you then become eligible for even more incapacity benefit which traps you even further and makes it even harder for you to emerge from this cocoon of supposed support which you are receiving from Government agencies. Somehow we have got to crack the vocabulary with which we’re discussing this, we have got to return to a point where seeking employment isn’t a punishment, it isn’t a way that you get driven out of the safe haven of Government protection but it is the normal expectation for sound and healthy human beings. Of course there are some people who are incapable of employment. There are people who are serious victims of disability and genuine incapacity, comprehensive incapacity, who are incapable of being gainfully employed and they have to be looked after. Any compassionate society has to look after those people but they are small proportion of the population and the idea that in a time of unprecedented prosperity and well being where longevity and general health outcomes have improved so dramatically, more so than ever in human history, the idea that we should now have a greater number of people on incapacity benefit is simply perverse, there Somehow we have got to has been a breakdown crack the vocabulary with of the logic. Somehow we have to break which we’re discussing through this notion that this, we have got to return we are actually to a point where seeking protecting people who we are supporting by employment isn’t a refusing to allow them punishment to become or creating disincentives for them to become independent and self supporting and without that I fear that the political price that will be paid by all the attempts at innovation, all the attempts of breaking out of this cycle will become too great for any generation of politicians to endure. Thank you. Patrick Nolan: Well thank you Janet and all our panellists for what I thought were four very interesting and provocative presentations. We have got about ten minutes for questions so I’ll take a group of three. In fact I’ll go to my boss first. Andrew Haldenby: Well done Patrick! Can I ask about the regional question of this? Iain Duncan Smith this morning said that there are unemployment black spots in every region and it is wrong to get particularly worried therefore about the situation in areas outside the south east of England. I just wondered if the panellists would agree with that. Audience Member: Hi. I’m from the Prince’s Trust. I just wanted to say something about the numbers, we have asked young people a lot about what would help to get them off benefits and one of the key things they come back with is more entry level jobs so it’s not that they won’t take low skilled jobs, it’s just that there are not enough low skilled jobs in their areas for those young people. Aaron Barbour: Aaron Barbour from Community Links again. We’ve heard a lot from providers today, we haven’t heard too much from employers and we definitely haven’t heard from anybody that has actually been on benefits which is a shame just as a comment, but my question is: where are the jobs? We have just done some research in Newham and for every one vacancy there are nine people going for that job, in London it is eight to one and in nationally it is five to one, so people need jobs today, yes they do want to work but where are they going to go? Patrick Nolan: Great, three really good questions and all interrelated in a way so I’ll just start with David, do you have any thoughts on any of those three questions? David Banks: Well the regional question is really interesting. What I took from the comments this morning was the issue about mobility and mobility as being a barrier and that www.reform.co.uk 53 Reforming welfare / Reform really resonated as to how we can actually, we need to work so that there isn’t actually a disadvantage to being mobile to actually gain work. In terms of help to get off benefit, the employers’ job, I guess G4S is the second largest private sector employer in the world so I guess we have got a point of view on that and many of our jobs are close to entry level jobs so that’s really relevant. If you like, the supply side is something that is of real interest to us in terms of how we can actually play out part for the vacancies that come up to assist with these very difficult group of people. Chris Melvin: I’ll start with the regional question because I think it leads in to the other questions nicely. I come from the North East, all of my family except myself work for the public sector and if I wanted not to be a teacher, which is what most of my family do very, very well, I had to move to London. That is slightly paraphrasing but that’s what it was like in the early 90s in the last recession. So there is a difference and the difference is around opportunity. There are less private sector opportunities in Easington than there are in the majority of London, even places like Newham where I think you said it was eight to one or whatever it was, in Glasgow there are 16 people chasing every job for example. Having said that, if you look at the fact that jobs are still out there,Yvette did say that people have spent less time on unemployment in this recession, they have got off Job Seekers Allowance quickly and jobs do create jobs. As people work, pay taxes, then that creates more economic activity. It is very challenging for young people at the moment; there is no doubt about it. We have done a lot of research around what young people think they need to help them start their career and certainly echoing the question, our research felt that one of the greatest things that stopped them finding a job was excess competition so you can translate that into not enough opportunities. Equally lots of young people For every one vacancy said they weren’t prepared to do things there are nine people like internships and going for that job they weren’t prepared to do things like work experience and unfortunately in this kind of economic time you have to do something that stands you out from the crowd, and I think that is the investment that we will need to do in the future. Patrick Nolan: Janet, I don’t know if you want to pick up on the issue of young people, especially as I was taken by your remarks on the logic of the previous generation being lost. Janet Daley: I think your comment just now that people are unwilling to take on internships, unwilling to do work experience, if there were – to put it brutally, if there were not the choice of welfare dependency as a lifestyle choice, then the question of whether you were prepared to do what was necessary to do work would become an imperative. It wouldn’t become, well I don’t fancy that, I’m not going to do that, what’s the point of doing that, I’m not going to put myself out to do that just on the off-chance that I might get a job. 54 www.reform.co.uk Reforming welfare / Reform Just another point too about welfare reforms releasing people on to the job market. After the 1996 Welfare Reform Act in America there was a mini boom because so many people were actually pushed out in to the job market. It is amazing the ways that people can find to make money if they have to. America, true, is perhaps a rather more entrepreneurial society but people did find work and their work, their paid employment actually contributed to a boom. Yvette Cooper: There is a serious danger of people just misunderstanding the nature of the labour market that we have at the moment. It is true that when the economy is growing steadily, if you have more people into the labour market, what you will also have is an expansion of jobs because you have a growing economy, demand will grow as well and you will get into that virtuous spiral that in fact we have had for very many years. But that is not the nature of the economy that we are in at the moment and the risk is actually the reverse at the moment, that we will get into a tailspin in which you actually have contracting demand as a result of contracting jobs and that will in itself lead to lower growth and so on. So I think this question about where are the jobs for people to go to is an incredibly important one so as well as making sure that individuals are job ready, that there are requirements on people to take jobs, you also have to make sure the economy is growing and jobs are being created. Our approach to the recession was to say, look, we are going to get through this recession, it’s going to be hard. During the recession we should protect people and make sure they stay job ready so protecting people is not simply about paying them benefits, it is actually about giving them work and that’s what the Future Jobs Fund was all about. It was about saying people need to be in work during this recession and, yes, that does mean the Government needs to fund the Future Jobs Fund, working with the voluntary sector to keep people in work and keep people employable. The issue about young people in particular is really important. So many young people we talked to said I apply for jobs, they say I need experience, how can I get experience if I can’t get my first job? Things like Future Job Fund were exactly about providing people with that first bit of experience so they can get to jobs. I disagree with Janet because I think actually, a lot of the things you were saying about the importance of work and the importance of having requirements of people to look for work and expectations I completely agree with, but that’s why I think you are wrong about needing a change of political culture now. Actually that political change in culture took place decades ago because the whole principle behind the New Deal was that you give people opportunities and you require people to take it up. There have been more difficulties with sickness benefits and I think sickness benefit reform should have been taken earlier but the approach to young people has been very clear – you give people opportunities but you do require them to take them up. But if you take away the opportunities you stuff people and on the issue about the regional thing, just finally to finish on the regional thing, it is true, there are communities in every part of the country, in every region, where you have high levels of unemployment, where you have problems of severe deprivation or particular barriers, perhaps transport barriers, child care barriers and so on but equally you can look across the regions and overall you will see in certain regions there are lower levels of demand as well and so regions have been more heavily hit by the recession. If I look at my constituency, the coalfield has been devastated as the result of pit closures. The regeneration through the RDAs has led to some pit sites with more jobs above ground now than there were below ground when the pits were open. There has been fantastic regeneration but it is heavily hit now by the recession. The key question now is can we get it back again, can we get it growing again because if we can we’re on a roll, if we can’t we’ll see a return to those long term problems all over again. Janet Daley: I just want to ask you about what you say about young people being prepared for work and having readiness for work, are you in favour then of Workfare schemes? Yvette Cooper: What actually we set out in the Youth Guarantee meant you had to take up one of a series of options and that included either the Future Jobs Fund and they were jobs paid at the minimum wage, good jobs for people, hundreds and thousands of them that we were funding, 90,000 of them have now been cut as a result of the new Government’s decision, or training places, or a community task force or work in the voluntary sector, but you had to take up one of them.You can describe it as Workfare and say maybe the voluntary sector option was like Workfare because you were paid your benefit plus maybe an additional training allowance. I actually think the best thing to do is to get people into jobs paid at least the minimum wage and that is what the Future Jobs Fund was about, but we provided other options as well. But there was no fifth option, you couldn’t just say I don’t like any of them, I’m not going to do them. For young people there wasn’t. Janet Daley: There was no fifth option? For young people who were not in education, training or employment? I think this event has really worked in those terms, we have a much clearer idea I think than we did at the beginning of the day about the issues that we need to focus on and those are issues that we have talked about in those sessions particularly around the provision of services, how best to do that and around insurance, savings and pensions. Both Iain Duncan Smith and Steve Webb said do please send in your ideas, we need them for our reviews, for the spending review, so we will take them at their word and as I said at the beginning, what we are going to do with this event is write it up, summarise and transcribe it and send it in to the Treasury and to the opposition party to help with their thinking on the spending review and these crucial questions. So thank you so much for coming and for giving this event its life and also for raising We wanted to bring these ideas that we will capture. What we will people together, the then do is keep working people that matter on these issues and we will have major research projects led by Patrick and others on both the provision side of welfare and also what I think of as the financing side, who is going to pay for welfare and how is it going to fit into the macro economy. We have got all your email addresses so if we can keep contacting you and keeping you involved in events like this I will be delighted to do that. My penultimate thanks go to our sponsors, I won’t read out the names because they are right there, but one thing we know at Reform is we need the contribution of particularly effective companies to support the policy debate. It is still, in my view, that Whitehall can be too often a little bit inward looking and doesn’t benefit from the experience of these leading organisations and so that’s why I am particularly glad these organisations have been able to put their intellectual capital on the table today, so thank you again. My last thanks go to our speakers who have just meant this event has just had a torrent of energy and ideas and has flown by so thank you very much indeed. Yvette Cooper: Under the Youth Guarantee if they had been unemployed for over ten months then they would not be getting benefit. Patrick Nolan: I am afraid we are very much out of time. I am sorry, I hate to interrupt such a good discussion, but fortunately we have lunch after this so stay around and we can continue this over lunch. I am going to hand over to Andrew but if you can all join me in thanking the panel. Closing Remarks Andrew Haldenby: Well just to close the event. As I said at the beginning we are doing these conferences because we wanted to bring people together, the people that matter at the beginning of this incredibly important Parliament, to get a sense of where the debate is and to encourage that debate and to feed ideas in. www.reform.co.uk 55 Education / Reform Schools for the future / Reform Programme Schools for the future The state of education Supporting quality teaching Raising the bar Education for less 08.30 – 09.00 Breakfast 09.00 – 09.15 Welcome and introduction 09.15 – 10.15 The state of education Paul Woodgates, Head of Consulting to the Education Sector, PA Consulting Group Camilla Cavendish, Chief Leader Writer, The Times Professor Francis O’Gorman, Head of English, University of Leeds Professor Dylan Wiliam, Deputy Director, Institute of Education 10.15 – 10.30 Coffee 10.30 – 11.30 Supporting quality teaching A panel debate chaired by Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Evidence consistently shows that quality teaching is the single most important factor to influence educational outcomes. Yet there is an increasing emphasis on technology being introduced into the classroom, often with little consideration to its impact on pedagogy. This session will examine how good teaching can best be supported, and will consider whether there is a role for technology in helping teachers to innovate and maximise the benefit of their classroom experience and pedagogical expertise. Rt Hon Lord Knight of Weymouth, Former Minister of State for Schools and Learners Rod Bristow, President, Pearson UK Professor Sir John Holman, Director, National Science Learning Centre Professor Judy Sebba, School of Education and Social Work, University of Sussex 11.30 – 12.00 With Steve Beswick, Rod Bristow, Chris Davies, Professor Deborah Eyre, Nick Gibb MP, Professor Sir John Holman, Rt Hon Lord Knight of Weymouth, Simon Lebus, Ros McMullen, Professor Francis O’Gorman, Professor Judy Sebba, Amanda Spielman, Professor Dylan Wiliam and Paul Woodgates A panel debate chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Before the general election, all three Parties identified some of the problems still facing the system today. Labour acknowledged the need to get more, better teachers into schools. The Conservatives emphasised the importance of genuine school choice. The Liberal Democrats rightly observed that the poorest are often still left behind. Can these proposals transform schools, or does England need a fundamental reappraisal of what education is for and how to deliver it? Nick Gibb MP keynote speech 12.00 – 12.45 Lunch 12.45 – 13.45 Raising the bar A keynote speech by Nick Gibb MP, chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform The Minister of State for Schools will set out his agenda for reforming school education A panel debate chaired by Dale Bassett, Senior Researcher, Reform The quality of school education, and the differences between academic and vocational routes, are more hotly debated than ever. To what extent should children be “selected” to follow an academic or vocational route at 14? Will academic or vocational education best serve the needs of individuals and the economy in the future? How can the quality of education be raised? Would a liberalisation of the qualifications market be a driver for improving or falling standards? Amanda Spielman, Research and Development Director, ARK Schools Ros McMullen, Principal, David Young Community Academy Professor Deborah Eyre, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford Simon Lebus, Chief Executive, Cambridge Assessment 13.45 – 14.45 Education for less A panel debate chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform The schools budget will come under increasing pressure as public spending is brought under control. Does a reduction in spending have to mean a reduction in quality? This session will examine the potential for waste reduction, workforce reform and tackling national agreements to reduce costs while improving the quality of school education. Dale Bassett, Senior Researcher, Reform Shaun Fenton, Headmaster, Pate’s Grammar School Chris Davies, Education Director, Tribal Steve Beswick, Director of Education, Microsoft 14.45 – 15.00 56 www.reform.co.uk Close Closing remarks on the day’s discussions from Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform www.reform.co.uk 57 Schools for the future / Reform Schools for the future / Reform The Reform team – setting the agenda The state of education Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform As the UK seeks to set itself back on the path to prosperity, nothing matters more for the future strength of our economy and society than education. It is the primary driver of social mobility. It is essential for strong economic growth. Now, more than ever, the outlook for the country rests on its education system. Successful schools across the country, some of whose leaders join us today, show what can be achieved. Yet more than half of all 16 year olds still leave school without a decent set of qualifications. England’s performance in the international school league tables gets ever less impressive. We have a narrower and shallower curriculum than our international competitors. 58 www.reform.co.uk Dale Bassett, Senior Researcher, Reform Kimberley Trewhitt, Researcher, Reform Before the general election, all three Parties identified some of the problems still facing the system today. Labour acknowledged the need to get more, better teachers into schools. The Conservatives emphasised the importance of genuine school choice. The Liberal Democrats rightly observed that the poorest are often still left behind. These issues inform our agenda today. To secure the future of the English education system, a number of key questions still need to be answered. Should there be a “core” in the education system followed by all pupils – and if so, what should it be? How can quality teaching best be supported and how can we improve the quality of teaching in schools? How can schools continue to deliver in an era of falling budgets? Is it possible to deliver school choice without extra cost? Can education avoid the trap of league tables in trying to move from input-based to output-based measures of success? It is clear that, for all the progress that has been made, the system is still not delivering for those most in need. Children on free school meals are half as likely to get five good GCSEs as those who are not. And while there have been substantial increases in university participation among the least advantaged 40 per cent of young people compared to the mid-1990s, the participation rate among the same group of young people at the top third of selective universities has remained almost flat over the same period. The new Government has made encouraging steps in its early days, freeing more schools from local authority control, allowing parents to set up new schools and giving heads more freedom over curriculum and teachers’ pay. These changes alone will not create great schools for the future. But teachers and parents have a rare opportunity to take advantage of the reforms that are currently being introduced. If they can seize this chance to reshape the education system, English schools can do even more to help those most in need, and to build the future the UK needs and its children deserve. The state has gradually expanded its role in education. There are Sure Start centres, the Early Years Foundation Stage curriculum, school curricula that tell teachers how to teach, targets on community cohesion and spiritual and cultural development and weekly cash payments to encourage 17 and 18 year olds to stay in school. We have become used to the idea that the state should do increasingly more in education, in terms of both prescription and provision. This has come at a significant cost, with per pupil funding now more than double the level of 1997-98. The danger is that all this activity distracts from what really matters – children learning the knowledge and skills they need to go on to bigger and better things. It is time to consider what the state can and should provide. The state is withdrawing from some parts of education – notably through the introduction of tuition fees in higher education. The new Government should take the fiscal crisis as an opportunity to refocus state education on what it should be about – giving every child the start in life that will allow them to go on to great things. Professor Francis O’Gorman One piece of the puzzle We should be ambitious for education. But we should also not make the mistake of assuming it can do the work of a whole society. Almost all established academic subjects, well taught, develop invaluable skills and impart invaluable knowledge. Almost all established academic subjects have exceptional significance in an educational system that aims to prepare young people for life and work (not one or the other).Welltaught and well-conceptualised, those subjects give the student the capacity, apart from anything else, to learn how to learn. Education is not about learning skills in the abstract, though it is about skill; it is not about learning knowledge in the abstract, though it is about knowledge. An education that is overwhelmed by techniques, by defined and confined skills, risks becoming quickly out of date.The ability to carry on learning and developing is a companion for life, and it is essential for us all in enabling us to meet the challenges of a changing society, a changing workplace, and a changing nation. Education works best where there is passion, encouragement, and expertise. Education delivers most where it is believed in, and where institutions, teachers, and leaders, know it has a transformative power. Education works best, too, where institutions are ambitious for their students, but not oppressive in over-burdening assessment, in regulation, in expectation. In an environment that tries to define in exhaustive detail exactly what can and should be achieved in a class room, the surprise and passion of education can be stunted into routine and judged by false standards of what constitutes success. Education is partly a science, partly an art – but it also needs some alchemy. It is worth educators becoming students themselves every now and again. Doing this helps re-invigorate an understanding of what we can do as teachers, and affirm how central passion, encouragement, and expertise are. How flat the word “competence” sounds. And yet how important it is. Education can transform, but it cannot transform everything. It cannot entirely mend what it did not break. A country that puts faith in education is wise. But one that puts too much faith in it may be trying to shift attention from social problems that education alone cannot change. Professor Francis O’Gorman, Professor ofVictorian Literature and Head of the School of English, University of Leeds www.reform.co.uk 59 Schools for the future / Reform Paul Woodgates Policy into practice Schools matter. Our social, economic and cultural future relies upon schools that ensure our young people develop, learn, and fulfil their potential. The pressure on our schools to improve is therefore unrelenting. Increasingly, the consensus is that putting communities in control of the schools that educate their children should be at the heart of reform; the passion people feel for education should be harnessed to achieve schools that are focused on children and best equipped to deliver the education that parents want. The challenge now is implementation – defining the practical steps needed to make change happen. In the past, education reform was implemented through two types of intervention: by applying new and ring-fenced money, and by setting rules, targets and performance frameworks. But neither approach is now applicable – it goes without saying that there will be no new money (indeed substantial savings will be required) and where the very purpose of reform is to enable localism and decentralisation, top-down centrally-managed implementation is hardly likely to be appropriate. A new way of making change happen is therefore required. Instead of top-down planning driving action, this new approach must release the latent energy within the system and create change bottom-up. Instead of issuing directives to be cascaded down through management structures, it must take a system-wide view of the schools sector and promote those elements of that system that will drive reform. There cannot be a blueprint for every school, but it is 60 www.reform.co.uk possible to set out a range of models for how schools can operate – how they can collaborate, how they can define their distinctive identities, how they can source their support services, how they can innovate, and how they can meet the aspirations of the communities they serve. Above all, implementation must reflect the fact that schools are not just institutions: they are the sum of the children, teachers, heads, governors, parents and partners that make them up. Policy implementation must recognise that school reform depends entirely upon them. PaulWoodgates, Head of Consulting to the Education Sector, PA Consulting Group Professor Dylan Wiliam Making our existing teachers better With higher educational achievement, individuals live longer, are healthier, and earn more money. Society also benefits from higher educational achievement in the form of reduced health-care costs, reduced criminal justice costs, and increased economic growth. Raising the scores of all England’s 15-year olds by 25 points (roughly half the gap between England and Finland) on PISA (the tests used by the OECD to compare educational achievement in literacy, mathematics and science) would have a net present value of £4 trillion—roughly the value of everything in England, and more than enough to wipe out current and future budget deficits. Understandably, therefore, governments have tried various measures to raise student achievement. The previous government spent over £1 Schools for the future / Reform billion on the national strategies, which, over five years, appears to have resulted in approximately one extra child per primary school reaching level 4 in the key stage 2 tests. Worse, a similar amount is being spent each year on classroom assistants who actually lower the performance of the students they are intended to help. Other reforms have changed school governance and structures. Specialist schools do get better results than nonspecialist schools, but that is only because they get more money, and academies improve no quicker than similarly low-performing schools that are not converted into academies. The Conservatives promise parent-led schools along Swedish lines even though the evidence is that they have had no effect on student achievement. These reforms have failed because they fail to address head on the dominant variable in the education system: teacher quality. As Sir Michael Barber says the quality of an education system cannot exceed the quality of its teachers. Getting better entrants into the profession is part of the answer, but only a small part, for two reasons. First, it is very slow: it will be 30 years before the effect of new entrants into the profession works its way through the system, and we just can’t wait that long. Second, it is hard to identify good teachers until they teach. “Teach for America”— the model for Teach First — has attracted able graduates into teaching, but they turn out to be no better than those trained in traditional ways. If we are serious about securing our future economic prosperity, therefore, we need to improve the performance of teachers already working in schools. Previous models of teacher professional development have failed to deliver the improvements we need, so we need a relentless focusing of professional development on what improves outcomes for students. Nick Gibb MP Raising standards Professor Dylan Wiliam, Deputy Director, Institute of Education Nick Gibb MP, Minister of State for Schools This Coalition Government is determined to raise standards right across the education sector. To achieve this we will provide more freedoms for teachers and heads, more choice for parents, less bureaucracy, and a diverse system of education provision in which all children and parents benefit from high standards and real choice. There is no doubt in my mind that our school system needs reforming if we are to tackle the educational inequality, which has widened in recent years.We have started this process of reform by opening up the state sector to more talent and more innovation by giving parents, teachers, charities and local communities the chance to set up new schools. Alongside this, we must ensure that there are robust standards and the highest quality teaching. We will give schools greater freedom over the curriculum, but we will ensure that the acquisition of knowledge is at its heart, and subject disciplines are valued. It is through deepening knowledge that real understanding and thinking skills are embedded. As well as freeing up schools from bureaucratic control, we intend to create more flexibility in the exams system so that state schools can offer qualifications similar to those offered by independent schools. For too long there has been a target driven approach in state education, which has increased the gap between our state and independent schools. Above all, I want an education system that reflects the will of society, one that ensures potential is realised, and that makes sure every child gets the best possible education. Supporting quality teaching Spending on the workforce makes up the largest proportion of the schools budget. On average 78 per cent of a school’s budget goes on staffing. There has been a substantial increase in numbers, with 10 per cent more teachers and two-and-a-half times as many teaching assistants as a decade ago. Yet there is a danger of focusing on quantity instead of quality. Academic evidence consistently shows that teacher quality is by far the biggest factor that affects educational outcomes. A teacher whose quality is two standard deviations above the average will double a pupil’s speed of learning. Given the financial investment in the workforce and teachers’ importance in improving the quality of education, government policy must focus on driving up the quality of teaching, through the right recruitment, management and continuing professional development (CPD). Just putting more adults in a classroom is not the right course of action. It is time for policymakers to reverse their priorities. Rt Hon Lord Knight of Weymouth Supporting quality teaching We know that quality of teaching is the most important thing to influence educational outcomes. In the same way the success of a school is determined by the quality of leadership. The success of individual children is first and foremost down to the quality of parenting. It therefore follows that supporting quality teaching cannot be seen in isolation but must in part be about how to ease the collaboration with other teachers, with school management and with home. The Government is right to expand Teach First, and to develop Transition to Teaching. They have inherited a great legacy of the best generation of young teachers we have ever seen. This is vital to continue the improvement in recent years, especially in the basics of English, mathematics and ICT. I include ICT because it is now a fundamental skill in the workplace almost regardless of what occupation a child pursues. It is also now a key tool in engaging children in learning across the curriculum and the new generation of teachers are using technology more and more in the classroom. With the demise of BECTA it is now vital we continue to share next practice in technology-enabled pedagogy. Good use of technology allows learners to collaborate, to learn from each other, to proceed at their own pace and for the teacher to personalise the learning. Of course it also allows management to monitor performance. Finally it is crucial in improving the home-school relationship as real time reporting develops and evolves into real time accountability. Online collaboration is especially powerful in developing subject specialism. Sharing of best practice, rating material that works in the classroom and linking parts of the curriculum are all made easier and cheaper online. Society is changing rapidly. The demands and needs of young people change with it. The fundamental truth of the importance of quality teaching remains a constant, but the pedagogy needs to be dynamic if we are to keep up with the world outside the school gate. Rt Hon Lord Knight ofWeymouth, former Minister of State for Schools and Learners Rod Bristow Improving educational attainment Pearson, the world’s leading education company has a simple goal: to improve educational attainment and so help people make progress in their lives. That is why we are so pleased to sponsor this conference. We understand the critical role that teachers play in truly engaging and stretching learners to achieve more. We are the teachers’ and parents’ partners in helping learners achieve more. It is at home as well as at school where the framework for success for young people is built and yet often where the need for support is greatest. Although any framework needs to be flexible enough to be able to respond to individual needs, we believe three features are critical. First, qualifications that can inspire learning, enthuse teachers and provide nationally recognised benchmarks of www.reform.co.uk 61 Schools for the future / Reform success.We worked closely with teachers and professional bodies to re-design our suite of Edexcel and BTEC qualifications to ensure they provide the skills and knowledge young people need. These provide a range of alternatives for teachers and students and we are pleased about the new Secretary of State’s commitment to providing as much choice as possible within the qualification system. Second, an assessment regime that can record progress, generate feedback and uphold public confidence whatever the form of learning undertaken. As a major contractor for national tests and a leading player in developing assessment systems for applied learning, we have helped transform exam and assessment systems, using new technology to speed up the transmission of data while being developing individualised data on student performance. Third, the right support that brings together learning materials, published resources and teacher support within easy to use packages along with regular professional development and updating. We are using technology to tailor the learning ‘relationship’ between the learner, the teacher and the parent through the development of the fronter learning platform and other learning technologies. Rod Bristow, President, Pearson UK Professor Sir John Holman The importance of subjects Subject expertise is at the heart of teachers’ professionalism, especially in secondary schools. The large majority of a teacher’s time is spent in a classroom or laboratory teaching a specific subject and it is this that defines 62 www.reform.co.uk pupils’ experiences, day in, day out. For most teachers, teaching a subject well is the main way they judge their success. This has always been true, but we may have lost sight of it a bit over the last ten years as we have followed an ever-wider agenda in schools, trying to solve more and more of society’s problems (health, obesity, happiness or lack of it, antisocial behaviour …) as well as pursuing better and better grades in examinations. How do teachers become expert in their subject? Part of it is about their initial degree subject. Evidence from Ofsted makes it clear that, other things being equal, a subject specialist gets better outcomes than a non-specialist. Of course, we all know examples of teachers with superb subject qualifications who are ineffective and vice-versa. But these are exceptions to the rule that deep subject knowledge and understanding makes a teacher better equipped to explain – and to inspire with insights into the subject beyond the exam syllabus. So we must continue to recruit and, if necessary, retrain specialist teachers, especially in shortage subjects like mathematics and the sciences. And we need a stronger emphasis on subject-specific continuing professional development. In a 2005 study, the Wellcome Trust found that 50 per cent of all secondary school science teachers have had no subject knowledge CPD in the past five years. Teachers need opportunities to keep up with developments in their subject and to meet other teachers of the same subject to share ideas. Does this mean that whole-school issues like health and behaviour are no longer important? Of course not, but if we get the basics of subject specialist teaching right, much of the rest – such as behaviour – will follow. Professor Sir John Holman, Director, National Science Learning Centre Schools for the future / Reform Professor Judy Sebba What policy makers can do to support high quality teaching Research evidence tells us that two factors make the greatest impact on pupils’ learning; quality of teaching and quality of school leadership. There is well established evidence on what contributes to high quality teaching. There are three ways in which policy makers and school leaders can contribute to improving the quality of teaching. They do not require additional investment as they involve doing things differently, rather than increasing what is done. We know that learning in children and adults is more likely to occur when feedback on performance is negotiated, focused, clear and identifies possible improvements. This can be provided for teachers through coaching. However, the most effective way of implementing this is least often used. The person who learns most from “coaching” is the coach or person undertaking the observation of teaching, not the person being observed teaching. However, we persist (e.g. through the Masters in Teaching and Learning) to set up coaching that assumes that the person observed is being coached. Secondly, feedback on teaching must be given by those who consume it hourly – the pupils. Those who argue that pupils evaluating teaching is a threat to the profession are missing the point that pupils observe teachers all the time, though we rarely invite their feedback. Schools that seek pupil feedback from pupils, who are trained to give it sensitively, improve the quality of their teaching. Finally, teachers’ practice has been “mandated” for the last 13 years. We need to give teachers back the responsibility to make professional judgements in the classroom and support them by providing accessible, synthesised, robust evidence about what works and how it works. Informed by this evidence, teachers need a licence to “experiment” or what some have referred to as “tinker”, in order to improve their own quality of teaching. Professor Judy Sebba, Professor of Education, University of Sussex Raising the bar For everything else that the education system does, it is impossible to get away from the fact that still, in the second decade of the 21st century, more than half of all 16 year olds leave school without five decent GCSEs including English and maths. Successive governments’ response to this problem has been to fashion alternative “vocational” qualifications for those pupils deemed unsuited to academic study. “Parity of esteem” have been pursued, with non-academic qualifications assigned “equivalent” values to academic ones. Simon Lebus Liberalise qualifications, improve standards? There is a need for students to have a sensible set of choices according to their interests and the way they learn best. Whether that it is through vocational or academic routes, following modular or linear courses, the educational imperative is how best to drive learning and ensure that a good education is delivered to all students. Dominance of the centre over the qualifications system is not the way to drive up standards. Central control of A-levels for example, through regulator-specified qualification and subject criteria, has reduced flexibility and restricted the scope for innovation, while inhibiting the alignment of curriculum, teaching and assessment that is desirable for the best educational results. Now more than ever, in a time of economic certainty, what is important is enabling a qualifications system which is flexible, encouraging bottomup innovation in direct response to the economy. What will not help is a system fixated on coherence, which stifles a rapid response to economic change. Flexibility is also needed in the system when teachers and students are making decisions about which type of qualifications to pursue. Steering those who learn best by hands-on activity towards purely theoretical lessons will benefit no-one. In fact, the argument between vocational and academic qualifications is in no way as stark as a division between two different ‘types’ of student. Many students now combine some GCSEs with one or two vocational programmes, and many subject areas can be approached in either an academic or vocational style. Where the problem lies is in the attempt to compare academic and vocational The result is that fewer and fewer pupils are studying once-core academic subjects: only 30 per cent study history; the proportion of pupils studying languages at GCSE has fallen from 70 per cent to 45 per cent since this was dropped as a compulsory requirement. But, as ever, it is those most in need who suffer. 70 per cent of Teach First teachers (high-flying graduates in poorly-performing schools) thought their schools encouraged pupils to pick qualifications that were in the school’s interest, rather than the pupil’s. That is no way to offer opportunity to all. qualifications through an artificial system of equivalencies created for the purpose of school accountability. One solution would be to get rid of the points system for measuring schools, retaining English and Maths to ensure that an element of accountability remains, but freeing up everything else, allowing teachers to pick the academic or vocational route that works best for students. And just as genuine choice should enable students to decide between academic and vocational routes, it should also allow state schools to access provision available in the independent sector. The decision to make the International GCSE available to state school students is one example of this choice – and one we believe is crucial in giving all students the flexibility to learn in the most appropriate way for them. Simon Lebus, Chief Executive, Cambridge Assessment Professor Deborah Eyre Making the cut Everyone says they want a high performing education system but what that looks like is certainly a matter for debate. My interest is in securing high cognitive performance in students and again how best to do that is contested. In the UK we continue to assume that that only a small minority can reach these levels and structure our system accordingly. And since it is only a small minority we give them little attention. Indeed we go further and presume that child’s educational destiny can be more-or-less determined at birth by looking at a combination of their genetics and family background. Those who do well and come from disadvantaged backgrounds surprise us – they are said to www.reform.co.uk 63 Schools for the future / Reform succeed against the odds. Can we afford to be so complacent and squander talent in this way is a question to consider? Meanwhile some of our economic rivals are taking a different view. Their education systems have much greater aspirations. They equate high educational outcomes with future economic growth and success. They are more optimistic about what can be achieved educationally with this generation of children and they structure their education systems with this in mind. These countries are looking at the contemporary evidence around children’s cognitive development and concluding that high cognitive performance is so strongly influenced by environmental factors that we could and should expect it from far more students. They are not looking to label students as unable to cope with traditional academic work but rather expecting excellence in a wide variety of domains and valuing them all. Their debate is not who is capable of doing what but rather what do we need as a country and how can we secure it. In these systems the individual student from any background is empowered to achieve. In our system students and their families are always keeping one eye on whether they will ‘make the cut’. Isn’t it time for a change? choice between carrying on to university and pursuing the career of their choice. Since our schools in the main serve areas of high disadvantage, this vision represents a very high aspiration and correspondingly high expectations of schools, teachers and students. How does this mean we view “academic” versus “vocational” routes? The short answer is that we do not want them to be alternatives, especially at age 14. We want our 14 year olds to continue studying a range of academic subjects that is broad enough to give them a proper range of A-level or similar choices post 16.We are also happy for schools to offer high quality vocational qualifications for pupils who want them; but as an addition to rather than as an alternative to academic study. We are also not comfortable with the current equivalence model, because it puts too much pressure on schools to steer pupils into heavily vocational routes from age 14. In our transition schools we have found many bright pupils in Key Stage 4 signed up to English, maths and double science – but beyond that only to vocational qualifications in (say) IT and business studies. This often amounts to closing down their options prematurely. So what will help ARK and our pupils? Our wish list would include: Professor Deborah Eyre, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford • A qualifications regime that supports good education rather than micro-prescribing the post-14 curriculum and teaching. • An accountability framework that treats academic qualifications fairly. • Academic qualifications that fully reflect university expectations of entrants. • Fewer vocational qualifications, but of greater value to employers. Amanda Spielman The right qualifications ARK Schools has a clear educational vision: for all our pupils to be fully equipped for higher education by the age of 18, so that they have a true 64 www.reform.co.uk Amanda Spielman, Research and Development Director, ARK Schools Schools for the future / Reform Ros McMullen Raising the bar David Young Community Academy opened in 2006 replacing two low-performing secondary schools (83 per cent student attendance in both schools, with 18 per cent in the smaller and 10 per cent in the larger of students achieving five or more GCSE passes including English and maths). Student attendance at the Academy is over 90 per cent and the GCSE results expected this summer will see over 90 per cent of students obtaining 5 or more grade A* to C passes, with a real chance of around 40 per cent achieving 5 or more A* to C grades including English and maths. I have adopted a strategy of utilising the broadest range of qualifications available to build genuine personalisation into the curriculum and to establish a culture of success. One of the major problems with all curriculum change is that too often we talk as if “one size fits all”. We can clearly see that the rush to improve places in school league tables and collect as many exam certificates as possible has had a limiting effect on the development of students’ abilities to analyse, interpret and formulate innovative argument and ideas backed up with academic rigour. This needs to be remedied, particularly for the most able students who need this academic rigour for success at university and for leadership and entrepreneurship in public service and industry. By the same token developing a curriculum which treats the academic and vocational as completely separate pathways leads to a lack of respect for core competencies required by all students to succeed in the workplace and can demotivate and undervalue students. In “Raising the Bar” at DYCA, leaders were challenged to ensure that all students experienced success, began to see that education was not something that would finish at 16 and that they needed to become life long learners to prepare for economic activity. For all these reason Diplomas have been embraced by the Academy, and in addition to GCSEs and BTECs, City and Guilds qualifications are being introduced, as well as the International Baccalaureate. The Academy attempts to personalise the curriculum for every student with a clear focus on destinations and raising the aspiration of every student and family. Ros McMullen, Principal, David Young Community Academy Education for less School education is becoming more and more expensive, but a doubling of per-pupil funding over the past decade has not seen a doubling in results. (And, even if it had, concerns over quality and grade inflation remain.) Reform has identified three principal causes of poor value for money in schools. Firstly, politicians like to spend money on the wrong things. They prefer to fund visible legacies like staff numbers and buildings, despite evidence that class sizes and the building environment make a negligible difference to outcomes. They should instead focus on the one thing that really affects outcomes – teacher quality. Secondly, there is a problem with culture and management in many schools, which have rigid ideas about pay and are (understandably) focused on what happens in the classroom rather than fiddling with budgets. This can be tackled with the help of businesses and charities who know how to budget, and by creating incentives for schools and parents to save money. The third factor is the great “mission creep” – the expansion of education under successive government into areas away from – and at the expense of – the academic core. To solve this, policymakers must ask what they really want education to be for. Steve Beswick Partnerships with professionals Our commitment at Microsoft is to the success of each teacher and student, to help them realise their full potential. To do this we create partnerships with education communities around the world to deliver relevant, effective, and scalable technologies, services and programs that focus the contributions of many on improved learning outcomes for all.We recognise that students use technology widely, in their social life as well as in school, and they will need the right skills to work in the technology-rich workplace. We have a role to play in helping education professionals to reach, motivate and ensure the success of every student and teacher with education-specific tools and technologies that can help them achieve their greatest potential. We also see that our technology can be used to enable vibrant learning communities with programs and services that help bring people together to communicate and collaborate – professionals, students and families. There is demand to help schools, teachers, and students to meet evolving education needs without increasing costs, and to provide schools with the flexibility to respond to rapid change. Our technology sits at the heart of many of the innovations in schools today, and is being used to develop new styles of teaching and learning. Microsoft solutions also create the foundation for scalable, data-driven education, through an open, interoperable technology infrastructure that is specific to education and scales easily and cost-effectively. You can find out more about the work of the Education Team at Microsoft, and the work that we do with schools, on our website at www.microsoft.com/ uk/education. Steve Beswick, Director of Education, Microsoft Chris Davies The pupil premium School finance is hardly the raciest topic when it comes to thinking about education reform.Where it appeared in the election debate, it was mainly in relation to introduction of the pupil premium. Now the politicians are stuck into the business of government, however, it is a subject which will have to attract their attention. School finance has remained a fairly uncontroversial subject up until now thanks largely to increases in spending: between 1997/8 and 2009/10, funding per pupil increased by 109 per cent, almost three times the rate of inflation. These years of plenty have treated schools well. In 2008, there were 40,000 more teachers than in 1997 (an increase of 10 per cent), while the number of teaching assistants increased by almost 200 per cent over the same period, to 177,000. Few headteachers in post today have had to manage in straitened times: indeed, the last time there was a hint of financial trouble – over the increase in national insurance in 2003 – the previous government stepped in to bail schools out. All this means that few school leaders have had to make difficult choices about how to use their resources. It also means that many think of efficiency exclusively in terms of non-pay spend; “how can I make savings when 80 per cent of my budget goes on staffing?” is a common refrain. Any toughening of the financial regime for schools will therefore present school leaders with a set of novel challenges. They will need to think more carefully about what works to improve educational outcomes – and what that means about the way staff are used. Fundamental questions will need to be asked about the staffing models that have become received wisdom, particularly the use of teaching assistants. And school leaders will have to grapple with the consequences of restructuring, often without the help from local authorities that they have become used to. There is no doubt that schools can make savings and even become more efficient.The move to greater independence may help many with this process. But while schools are encouraged to stand on their own at the same time as the downward pressure on public spending increases, the challenges facing schools are likely only to grow. We may be about to enter one of those rare times when school finance comes back to the top of the agenda. Chris Davies, Education Director, Tribal www.reform.co.uk 65 Schools for the future / Reform Schools for the future / Reform Transcript Nick Seddon: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to this major Reform conference on reforming education. My name is Nick Seddon and I am the deputy director at Reform, which is an independent, non-party think thank whose mission is to set out a better way to deliver public services and economic prosperity.You’ll notice that I am not Andrew Haldenby, Director. He is going to be slightly late – although, hopefully, on time for the first session – because he has been invited to breakfast at Number Eleven. Before we go on: two bits of housekeeping. If there is a fire, I am told to tell you not to panic. Try to get out and congregate in an orderly fashion outside Marks and Spencer on Victoria Street. And I should also say that, for those avid Twitter feeders who are less Luddite than myself, that you need to use the hash tag, which is now not up there … Oh, yes it is … #reformschools – up there. This is the second of four major policy conferences that we are holding. And our aim is to bring together the people that matter, to discuss the issues that matter in the first hundred days of the new government. For those of you that are interested, today is number 50. There is a magnificent attendance today and that really delights me because I think it is going to give the discussions that we have real authority, both in the panel and the conversations that are had with the floor. The other thing to say is that we are recording today. We will write it up and we are going to submit it to each of the three main political parties and also to the Treasury, as a submission for the spending review. And you will all get a copy of that document when it comes out. Andrew has just arrived. So let me talk you through the programme on page one of the brochure because we are going to talk through four main things. The first is the state of education in the UK. With half of sixteen year-olds still leaving school without a basic set of educational qualifications, the really big question that we have to examine a bit further is ‘What can be done?’ There are radical ideas being advanced and radical ideas have been advanced – such as putting universities in charge of the curriculum, allowing profit-making companies to run schools – and the question that we have to keep on returning to is ‘Can these proposals transform schools?’ The second question that we are going to look at is that of supporting quality teaching. The evidence consistently shows that the quality of teachers is more important than the quantity of teachers; indeed, this is the single most important factor in determining educational outcomes. And so this session is going to examine how we can sponsor and promote and support quality teaching. And then we are going to have a speech by Nick Gibb, the Minister for Schools, chaired by Andrew. We are absolutely thrilled that he has agreed to come and speak today and give us the new government’s view on the reform of education. And then we will go for lunch. The third panel discussion, in the afternoon, is about raising the bar. The quality of school education and the differences between educational and vocational 66 www.reform.co.uk the Institute of Education and, in his distinguished career, has also worked in all levels of education and has been voted teacher and a teacher of teachers, having been the dean of a school of education. So, Paul: you go first. routes are more hotly debated than ever and we are going to ask the question, ‘Which one is more important?’ or ‘What are the different things that are most important in raising the quality of education?’ And the fourth session is about Education for Less. The schools’ budget is going to come under increasing pressure in this brave new world as public spending is brought under pressure. And here, the question is, ‘does a reduction in spending automatically have to lead to reduction in the quality?’ As the physicist, Ernest Rutherford pointed out, ‘we haven’t got the money so we’ll have to think.’ We will then close, hopefully promptly, at 3 pm. Because this event has very, very generous sponsors, we have been able to produce it properly for a big audience and, more importantly, we are going to benefit from their intellectual capital. Paul Woodgates of PA Consulting, who’s on the panel now, is going to talk about the state of education. Rod Bristow from Pearson will talk about supporting quality teaching. Steve Lebus of Cambridge Assessment will talk about raising the bar and Steve Beswick of Microsoft will talk about education for less. I am extremely grateful to all of you for your support and, of course, my profound thanks to Microsoft for hosting today and giving us such wonderful hospitality. So it is a great pleasure to have you all here today. I am looking forward to our discussions. Thank you. The state of education Andrew Haldenby: Well, thank you Nick. Let’s go straight into the first session – the state of education. What we are going to do, I hope, in the next hour, is to think in advance: ‘What should Nick Gibb tell us later?’ Imagine you are the new education minister – or one of them. What are the headings of the speech that he should give today? What is it that he is really thinking about? We all know the answer to this question. What is good in state education? What is not so good? And in the other sectors as well: given that there are limited resources, where should we all – as a policy community – really be focussing our attention. And what I would like to do is ask our four speakers to give us five minutes each on that subject and I will try and be tough here so we have got time – a lot of time – for questions, which is really the purpose of today – or discussion. Let me introduce the panel. Paul Woodgates is the head of consulting to the education sector at PA Consulting, which is one of the key consulting firms, working with the private sector and the public sector in the UK. Paul’s remit goes from the start of education to the end of it, whenever that is, and he has worked in the UK and the Middle East. Next to Paul, Camilla Cavendish is the chief leader writer at The Times. She was Campaigning Journalist of the Year last year. And, given that she is pretty-much now the only campaigning journalist, I suspect she’ll win it again this year. Francis O’Gorman is the professor of Victorian literature and head of the School of English at the University of Leeds. And Professor Dylan Wiliam is the deputy director of Paul Woodgates: Thank you. I am going to stand up because it is a flat room but, also, because it is tough for management consultants at the moment so I need all the sympathy I can get and you should know about that. So I will stand up for a few minutes. I think we are here today because we probably all agree that schools matter: schools are really important. And, whatever your view of the reform agenda that there’s been in the past, probably we can agree that it is a really important thing for the future that schools improve and continue to improve. That is important from an individual perspective of fulfilling individuals potential; it is important for social reasons. It is important for economic reasons and so on. There has been a lot of radical thought going on, I think, about the education agenda and how it can be reformed. I am sure we’re going to hear some of that throughout the day. The general consensus – or perhaps the locus of thought – has been towards notions of decentralisation, notions of localism, notions of allowing schools – and, indeed the communities that they serve – to take control of school level education and to have much more ownership and the ability to drive that education in their locality. Now, others are going to talk today about what that really means and the policies that will enable that.What I wanted to do, just in the next few minutes, is to say something about implementation and how those policy changes can become real. And the reason for doing that at the beginning is to suggest that that needs to be borne in mind all the way through these discussions. History is littered with great ideas for education reform that have been poorly executed. So my suggestion is we need to think about implementation from the very start and how we can make great ideas into real practice that make a difference in classrooms to children. Now, the reason I think that implementation is challenging is because, in the recent past, there have been essentially two approaches to delivering government policy on education reform.The first is, broadly speaking, to chuck money at it. And, whenever the government has wanted to reform the curriculum or assessment or put more technology in or whatever, it’s put a pot of money – new money – in place to do that. It may not feel like that in schools but that is what’s happened essentially at national level. Now, as Nick said, let us not even pretend that there is any possibility of that in the future.There is not going to be new money; indeed, we have got to make better use of the money that is there. So that, realistically, is not going to work. The second thing that has happened in the past is that central government has defined a set of rules and targets and guidance and frameworks and so on that it has sort of cascaded down through the system. And that, I suppose, has worked in the context of centrallydriven change. But if, here, we are talking about decentralisation – about localisation, about empowering schools – the notion of a sort of performance management driven approach to implementation clearly does not make sense anymore and it cannot be driven from the centre in the same way. So those two approaches to implementation are unlikely to be a valid way of proceeding in the future. That suggests a new model is required: a model that is going to release the latent energy that exists in schools and in communities. And that’s easy to say – a bit of cliché. There is evidence for it, though; there is evidence that it is there.You have only got to look at the interest in academies and, indeed, in free schools. And all of us, probably, have met heads and teachers and governors and parents and, indeed, children, who passionately want to make their schools better and, indeed, have the capability to do so if we can just harness that energy and release it in a way that will have a positive impact. So, ‘What does that mean then in terms of implementation?’ – which I said I would touch on. What it cannot mean is a sort of blueprint for reform in every school. That cannot work in this notion of decentralisation. But it could mean a set of different sorts of models under which schools work, different ways that they can innovate, different ways in which they can create their own identity, different We need to think about ways in which they can implementation from the collaborate between very start and how we each other. So, in can make great ideas into practice, that will mean real practice that make a different models of difference in the classrooms working for different sorts of schools: for academies, for free schools, for local authority managed schools and so on. It’s going to mean a very different role for chains and federations and, indeed, probably new models emerging around the way schools collaborate. It is also, I think, going to mean the emergence of what I would broadly call ‘providers’ in the sector. And, most obviously, that will be organisations providing back office and support services but it might also mean technology infrastructure, for example, and other things that are actually supporting classroom teaching. Now, that might be on a proper outsourced – ‘proper’ in inverted commas – full-scale, outsourced basis. Or it might simply be collaboration between schools in new ways that will emerge over the coming years. I am going to stop there, in the spirit of keeping to five minutes. So, my plea for today is that we think about implementation; that we think about policy and reform in the context of how it can be delivered, not just in conceptual terms – and that we think of decentralisation and localism as not being simply leaving schools to go it alone, but allowing them to collaborate and work together to deliver substantial reform. Thank you. Andrew Haldenby: Paul, that is fantastic. Camilla Cavendish. Camilla Cavendish: I think I am going to stand up too because I cannot see anybody at the back otherwise. I am afraid all pretence I had to be an expert on the subject has vanished this morning because, apparently, The Times has printed the supplement of the big business summit we had on Monday where I was chairing a group on education – we had various other things – and, apparently, we have spelt the word ‘education’ wrong. So that is a great start to my day. www.reform.co.uk 67 Schools for the future / Reform Very briefly, on the state of education, I do think this argument gets rather polarised. The fact is it is all the way from alpha to gamma, is not it? I was talking on Monday to Martin Rhys at Cambridge. We have Silicon Fair – if you like – in Cambridge, which is not quite Silicon Valley but it is extraordinary. We have universities pairing up with businesses, creating patents, building the economy, creating amazing technological ideas. On the other hand, we have one in six kids between the age of eighteen to twenty-four not in a job or in training or in education. I mean, we have got this very polarised system. And I was absolutely inspired, a few years ago, to see, [Irina Tyck] who is actually here – I saw her this morning – who is a fantastic head-teacher, sitting in Toynbee Hall in East London – which is a dilapidated old Victorian building – in two big rooms which I am sure did not meet any Health and Safety requirement – I do not know how they got away with it – teaching Bangladeshi children in a summer school. I think Irena basically raised the level of those children’s reading, writing and mathematics skills within two weeks beyond where they had come to in the entire year of education in the comprehensive system. So there are fantastic examples of that. On the other hand, as one of the Bangladeshi fathers said to me – because he was educated here – he said, ‘do you know, I really feel the kind of school I went to just does not exist anymore.’ And that is obviously a problem. The ‘could do better’ on the report card, to me, comes down to the growing gulf between the independent sector and the state sector. And the figures are just absolutely shocking. And I am sure you all know them. Independent schools produce more pupils with three As at A level than all the state schools put together. There is something fundamentally wrong about that in terms of our aspirations, in terms of our expectations, in terms of our ability to get children through the system. And just one more statistic for you: children on free school meals – which is about one in eight of children – 40 per cent of children on free school meals last year did not get a single C at GCSE. And I think we have to stop fussing about independent schools and public benefit and ‘oh, my God! Can we cream a bit off them?’ and start focussing on the rest of the system and ‘what are we doing for the children at the bottom?’ A friend of mine from Italy said to me the other day, she said ‘in Italy, children repeat a year. If they do not get it right, they repeat a year. And, actually, she said, ‘when I was …’ She was at school in Italy, she said, ‘it was the one thing I did not want to do. The one motivation I had was to not be with the younger kids.’ You just sort of think: there must be a few basic psychological things we could do. Perhaps in the Tory nudge – the new fashion for nudging – maybe that is just one of the things we should do. On the structures that Paul … I mean Paul talked about … You said, ‘releasing the latent energy that is there’ and, obviously, there is a lot of this around. And I am sure Nick Gibb will talk, later on, about the free schools. I just wanted to make one point on that, Andrew, which is, I am slightly worried that the Free Schools Initiative is actually going to be far too limited. And one of the reasons why is – I have not realised until recently – I thought it was going to parents and other providers are going to come in and create this, supposedly, great pluristic, diversified system. Now, my understanding – I am sure you know this better than I 68 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform do – but my understanding is that, actually, the trust has to be set up by parents. That means it is quite … At the moment – and I think you should ask Nick Gibb about this – it is quite limited because I think the deal has so far had about forty or fifty parents’ groups of which probably about twenty are going to meet the criteria. There are quite a lot of big, private companies out there with very, very deep pockets, which I think Can you somehow tap the big providers who have would quite like to come into this market. got very deep pockets and At the moment they are could be investing? going to have to be contractors to the parents’ trusts. Now that raises a real question of financial risk. “Who takes the financial risk?” Because, in fact, if you are a parents’ group, you are going to get the government funding per pupil but, if you do not fill your school, you have got a serious cash flow problem. So I just think you should raise that with Nick as to who is actually going to be taking the risk on those schools? Can you somehow tap the big providers who have got very deep pockets and could be investing? I just think there’s an issue there that I suspect the government has not thought about, which is just it is a business issue. In the interest of time, I am just going to come onto … There are so many issues in the education system but, to me, they always do come back to teaching. And we get obsessed with standards and structures and everything else; teaching is what we all remember. It was the great teacher; it was the teacher who was, usually, cleverer than we were – person who actually just spotted the one thing that made us tick and got on with it. And I think teaching is a very peculiar profession. I’ve worked in business most of my life and I was at Pearson – which I’m delighted to see have sponsored this conference – for a while. A lot of the people we had at Pearson were teachers – because Pearson is a very large education company – particularly in America – it is a fantastic educational publisher. Now a lot of the best staff we had were people who were refugees from teaching because it was one of the only organisations where they could work because they always had a direct interest. A lot of those people, very able, they had actually got a bit tired of teaching; they had got tired of the politics of the staff room; they had got tired of the problems with discipline – particularly in this country where, obviously, that is a whole issue that the government are trying to address. And one of the things that really struck me and has struck me again and again when I visited schools in America and Britain is that teaching has become increasingly peculiar in the sense that we regard it as a job for life. And there are very few other professions now that you regard as a job for life. And a lot of people leaving university today think ‘well, I’d quite like to try that. I might not be any good at it’ – because, obviously, your ability to teach does not really relate to the quality of your degree; it is a really different skill – and they are thinking ‘well, I don’t want to get trapped in this.’ And one of the reasons that Teach First was started – which is something I was involved in many years ago – was because some of us discovered Teach For America, where they had gone to Ivy League universities, said to students ‘come on, you’re going to get a job at Goldman Sachs but why don’t you teach for two years first and then Goldman Sachs will actually give you the job?’ Now, the result in America was that 50 per cent of the people who tried teaching stayed in teaching and were some of the best people they had. The other 50 per cent probably were not very good at it, did not have the patience, could not figure out how to teach kids who were not as clever as them and did not have that mentality. But it was a really enormous injection of quality into the system. And a lot of the schools here, which have been taking on Teach First students have actually been very flexible about the way that they have welcomed these students and taken them in. So I think, for me, that just raises a bigger question really – about how government looks at the teaching profession. Do the pensions create a problem? Should we actually be just divorcing pensions now from pay? – Which is true for most of us, certainly in my generation. I mean, we are not expecting our companies to pay us a pension anymore. Pensions have become a drag on people. They are building up a pot of money and they are thinking, ‘God! Actually, I’d better not leave because I’m not going to get the benefit at the end.’ One of the best people I met in New York when I was visiting charter schools there is guy called Steve Mariani, who was [inaudible] the Bronx. He was working in Wall Street. He was freaked out working in the Bronx. For some reason, he decided that the way to deal with his personal problem was to go and teach in the toughest school in the city. He decided to teach maths because he did not really know anything else. He had an entire term in which no child listened to anything he said; they all shuffled their feet and threw things at each other. Despaired he took the four worst kids out to dinner and said to them ‘do you remember anything I have taught you?’ And one of them said ‘well, you know, it was quite interesting that time when you talked about your business – what you did in the City.’ And this guy had remembered every If we can be more open single figure. And he about who we take into said ‘and I thought … teaching, if we can see That must have meant it as a flexible profession – you’d made a profit of and maybe, controversially, … Your margin was …’ if we can let teachers have This guy – Steve Mariani – as a result of more control over the that conversation and curriculum – we might get several others created an entirely new way of a better product teaching maths which is now called ‘The National Foundation for Entrepreneurship’, I think, in the States. And he decided that, obviously, kids at that level, ‘what are they interested in?’ They’re interested in making money. And that curriculum has swept through the States. It is being used here. I suppose my only argument there would simply be, if we can be more open about who we take into teaching, if we can see it as a flexible profession – and maybe, controversially, if we can let teachers have more control over the curriculum – we might get a better product. And I had better sit down because my time up. Andrew Haldenby: Camilla, thank you very much. Straight on to Francis O’Gorman. Francis O’Gorman: Thanks very much. I am used to talking in fifty-five minute slots! So, faced with this radical contraction, the only thing I can come up with is a list, which I hope is coherent in some way. But, forgive its disjointedness, I think I would like to use this opportunity to say something I have always wanted to say to Radio 4 and the news on the television, which is that education does not consist only of schools. The slippage that you see between the equivalence of ‘Education = Schools’ – and therefore, what exactly do universities do? ‘Oh, they do business and they put things back into the economy.’ We need to watch that. I am very conscious, as a literary historian, of the nineteenth century – of the circularity of many arguments about education. And I think this is one of the two big challenges that always faces anybody talking about education. We do cover the same ground that has been covered in the past. And I do think it is very helpful to have some awareness of that. The other thing that is a challenge for us is that, rather like Arthur and the Roundtable, education is absolutely steeped in myth. I think we have to stop repeatedly when articulating any idea about education and just ask whether it springs from some intuitive sense of how things should be, our own experience of being at school or being a teacher, or whether it has anything more substantial behind it than that. This is a debate full of belief – and that’s a good thing because it engenders passion – and it is a bad thing, because it does not always engender clarity of thought. We, in universities are a little bit, I think, like car mechanics or plumbers when it comes to schools: we have a wonderful habit of looking at our first year students and saying, ‘oh, for goodness’ sake! Who did that? Who taught them to think like this or to write like that or to have such a reckless regard for the semicolon?” That is a myth. We need to be careful of that. And I am probably about to […] in my own words, but I will just give some perspectives on where I see things particularly challenging for my subject at the moment. I do think we do have quite a serious problem with expectations about independence of thought and I think that comes from a regime of high – if not over – assessment. The setting of hoops to jump through tends to produce among good students people who are very good at jumping through hoops, rather than somehow thinking a little bit more broader than that. It is one of the unintended consequences of an admirable effort to give people clear markers as to how they are getting on. And certainly, of course, we do struggle also with the assumption – quite rife, in my experience – that education ought to be, at some profound level, easy: that it should be a matter – as for us in the National Students Survey – we are told – should be a matter of student satisfaction. Ah! We don’t do satisfaction! We give people desires and ambitions and knowledge and competences that they did not know when they started, that they might have or be able to obtain. So we might say we are in the creative dissatisfaction business. But we are a bit stalled by, I think, the assumption that we, as it were, should give what is asked for. I do think that confidence – real, personal confidence – the real transformative effect of education – comes through attempting that which is challenging and succeeding – or partially succeeding – or, at any rate, doing better than we had thought. And, in order for that to happen, I do think we need space for students to www.reform.co.uk 69 Schools for the future / Reform be able to make mistakes: in a sense, to be able to fail this or that, rather than being relentlessly pursued by the dark shadow of ‘assessment’ all the time. I do not particularly want to get into the skills versus knowledge debate, although I am sure, like everybody in this room, I have plenty of views on it. I am very interested – I told you this was a list – I am very interested in the notion of the free schools and I would like to hear more about this. I do have a big question about what exactly they might be free from because I think there are some serious impediments to the development of education across the board. In my little patch some 1970s’ assumptions about industrial relations are significant impediments and I should be very interested to know whether free schools might be free of those. And, on that philosophic point, I shall stop. Andrew Haldenby: Fantastic. Professor Dylan Wiliam. Dylan Wiliam: Thank you. I think our future economic prosperity is going to depend on our ability to distinguish myth from fact in these debates. And what is extraordinary is how many myths pervade so much government policy. So, for example – and you are not going to like this, but it is true – the quality of teaching in the average independent school is worse than the quality of teaching in the average state school. We know this from OECD data that shows the gap between private and state schools is bigger in England than it is in any other country, but entirely accounted for by the social class of the students going to those schools. Take that effect out and the superiority of the private schools disappears. And the private schools are teaching those kids in classes of thirteen and the state schools are teaching those kids in classes of twenty-five. So either, class size makes no difference at all or the teaching is worse in private schools. Classes are small in private schools because their teaching is so bad, they have to get the class size down to thirteen to match what the state schools are doing in classes of twenty-five. If we are going to improve education we have to look at the data and what is extraordinary is how much we have failed to do that. There is still this discourse of ‘good schools’ and ‘bad schools.’ Some schools are much worse than others but they do not have that big an impact on student achievement. So, of the difference in results that we see between high performing schools and low performing schools, about 93 per cent of that is Class size does not make nothing to do with the that much of a difference; school. It is the kids and their family what matters is teacher backgrounds that quality explains that difference. If you go to a good school, you will do better but not that much. So, if you have got an average school and you end up with, say, a class of thirty kids getting five good grades at GCSE. In a so-called ‘good school’, seventeen will and, in a so-called ‘bad school’, thirteen will. So, for those four kids it makes a difference but the differences are much smaller than most people assume. By and large, as long as you go to school, it does not matter very much which school you go to, but it 70 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform matters very much which class you are in that school. And, as we have heard already, class size does not make that much of a difference; what matters is teacher quality. And, in fact, class size reduction programmes generally lower teacher quality. It is axiomatic. When you reduce class size, you need more teachers and, when you need more teachers, you tend to train them quickly and you let in people who should not have been let in. So it all comes down to improving teacher quality. Now one of the things we know is that pay is not important. Finland pays their teachers about 108 per cent of average Imagine having this salaries – whereas we conversation with your GP: pay our teachers about 130 per cent of average ‘Why did you end up as a salaries. So that is not GP?’ ‘Well, I wanted to be what is making a teacher but I was not Finland’s teachers so good. Finland does good enough.’ have this smart habit of getting the cleverest people in the country to want to be teachers. There are so many universities in Finland, where it is harder to get into the teacher training programme than it is to get into medical school. Imagine having this conversation with your GP: ‘Why did you end up as a GP?’ ‘Well, I wanted to be a teacher but I was not good enough.’ But Ireland provides an example of the countercase, which is that just getting the smartest people to want to be teachers is not enough by itself, because Ireland also chooses its teachers from the top 10 or 20 per cent of the college-going population and has a very modest set of outcomes, even though they pay their teachers well, give them great conditions of service – and yet the outcomes are modest. So, what we need to be aware of is that we need to be much more careful about analysing these positive formulations. And, what I really find most depressing of all is this idea that almost all policies tinker around the edges. So, first of all, ‘how many free schools are there going to be?’ ‘Are there going to be 5,000?’ – I doubt it very much. So, if you are not going to get 5,000 of these things then you are wasting your time. And these things, by-and-large, are not generally harmful. I mean, academies are not generally worse than the schools that they are replacing but, actually, no better than the schools they are replacing. Steve Machin’s research shows that academies do get better results than non-academies but they start from a lower baseline, which is why they get made into academies in the first place. And academies improve at the same rate as non-academies, starting from the same baseline. Specialist schools get better results than non-specialist schools but they get more money: they get £129 per student per year more. And, by a spooky coincidence, the improvement of results that you get is exactly what you’d expect if you just gave the schools £129 per student, per year. So we need to be very clear about the logic of our reforms. And one of the things I am suggesting – and this picks up on Paul’s point – we need to have a very clearly articulated logic model: ‘If we do this, then we think this is likely the result and this will be the consequence and then, and then, and then … and this is how it is going to result in higher student achievement.’ And, when you force people to articulate a logic model, it does two things: it makes them, first of all, look at the existing research evidence to see ‘are the links in the chain supported by the existing research evidence?’ But then – and this is crucial in terms of Paul’s point – it provides you with a framework that I call ‘tight but loose.’ We have to make our reforms loose enough to be able to adapt into settings that are different from the ones that were envisaged. And, sometimes, you need to take advantages of affordances that are present in those settings that we had not envisaged: things that will make the form run better. But, at the same time, we must not allow the reforms to be so loosely articulated that they lose their effectiveness when implemented. Most educational reforms I see suffer from what Ed Hartle calls ‘lethal mutations.’ They get changed as they move through the layers of the system and, by the time they actually get into the classroom, they are completely ineffective. So, what you have is schools, trying to broaden their recruitment. I have seen it already. I was looking in Newham and the governors are discussing how to get more kids from the nice, middle-class primary schools coming to their school because that will make more of a difference than improving the quality of teaching and learning. So we need intelligent accountability that holds schools accountable for the kinds of progress the kids make. And, with that – and then focussing on leadership for that – then we also will have a chance of success. One last point about leadership: I work a lot with heads and one of the things that I find is that most heads never saw an educational idea they did not like. So some heads have got something like seventy or eighty things going on in their schools at the same time. And one of the things I say to those heads is that ‘when everything is a priority, nothing is.’ And effective leadership, in my view, consists of stopping people doing good and valuable things to give them the time and the mental energy to focus on even better things. And so, if we are going to succeed, we need to simplify the agenda so that most heads are focusing on one or two small things: i.e., improving the daily living experience of every single kid in every single classroom. If that is our focus, we will succeed. If we allow it to be dissipated by focusing on other things, then we will be a third-world country in forty years’ time. Thank you. Andrew Haldenby: Thank you. We have covered the ground. Paul Woodgates said that we need to think about how all this works and he said that we need to start thinking, in an open minded way, about new ways of delivering school education. Camilla Cavendish said that there is a polarisation in education and the best way to deal with problems of low achievement in the schools’ system is to be more flexible about the curriculum and teachers. Francis O’Gorman said ‘for God’s sake, don’t just talk about schools.’ Don’t worry, Francis, we will also talk about universities. And, I guess, then, if your constituency, Francis, as it were, is the kids at university, you are worried about over assessment and therefore a lack of independent thought. And you raised the value of education, which you thought was about challenge and so kids are not consumers in that sense; they have to be taught. Excuse the word! And Professor Wiliam said that ‘don’t fall into the temptation of over politicising education,’ if you like, ‘there are the fundamentals here about kids’ achievement being as much about their background as about other things which maybe put education into the wider economic debate: how do we become a wealthier society?’ But he also stressed the quality of teaching and the right methods to make teaching better. So the question is ‘are those the right headings that we need Nick Gibb to tell us about later?’ Let me open it up: do we agree? Or there other things we want Nick to tell us? I will take questions in twos or threes. But there is one here. And the microphone will come round. Will you just say who you are? David Perks: Hi. David Perks. I am a teacher from South London. The one thing that I think strikes me as being absolutely vital, if this new administration is going to clear the decks and give us a new start, is to tell the truth about where we are. And so, if we look at the school improvement agenda and what it has produced over the past ten or so years, then it has produced schools which are determined to get their position on the league table and If we look at the school nothing else. And, in improvement agenda and terms of how they do they will ditch what it has produced over that, education for anything the past ten or so years, that gives them that then it has produced position. So my one way of explaining this schools which are clearly is – I am a determined to get their science teacher – school on the league table physics teacher – is that and nothing else. the number of state schools now who are rushing away from academic science education at GCSE is unbelievable – and using pseudo vocational qualifications to lie about their achievements in the league tables. If you do not understand that, level two BTech is worth two or four GCSEs grade C, 100 per cent internally assessed, kids sit no exam. In fact, if you understand that, it means the teacher drives it or, in a lot of cases, does it for them. What does that mean? It means that the league tables that we have mean nothing. And, if you actually took that equivalence being slightly facetious fake qualifications away, then you would find that schools have nothing – absolutely nothing – to give. Now, that is not to say that the teachers are rubbish, the schools are rubbish: it is to say they have been driven down that by an agenda that absolutely needs to be squashed flat now. So my question for Nick Gibb is ‘are you getting rid of the equivalences now?’ and ‘if not, then you’re going to get labelled with the same thing the previous administration did.’ Andrew Haldenby: Does anybody else want to come in to support that? The gentleman … I can just see your hand in the white shirt … That’s it. Audience Member: Thank you. Actually, it is a question really that could be picked up by Dylan Wiliam. I absolutely agree entirely. I am the headteacher of a school in Cheltenham. I’ve worked with Dylan Wiliam before and it is one of the pleasures of my career to see some of the proper research on the impact on learning that Dylan Wiliam and his team have developed. But the www.reform.co.uk 71 Schools for the future / Reform point about the social capital that a child and their family can bring to a school being often this story that lies behind an improved school – the school is gentrified – that, I think, is at the crux … I agree with the equivalences issue but, at a more fundamental level, ‘how do we overcome that?’ Because, if we overcome that, then we can … So many other things are really just about how we do it. But the fundamental question is ‘if we can overcome the social background’. Tony Gardiner: Tony Gardiner, University of Birmingham, mathematician. I hope the four strands we saw at the front will get bound together, rather than remaining separate streams, as I think they often do. I am not sure that I can accept Dylan’s comment that there is no difference – or that the teaching in independent schools is worse – I am not sure. But I think the last comments are focussed on the fact that what is different between state and independent schools is the ethos within which the teachers they have got are working. I have no independent school background at all and I would not want one. But my wife teaches in one and I observe what happens. And I started the National Mathematics Challenges and ran them for a long time and I see the response from schools to extra-curricular opportunities that challenge with hard stuff. And state schools find it harder to respond because they are in the position that we heard here: trying to get their position in the league tables up. Somehow, it has got to change, the ethos and free state schools, not from controls, but to educate – to rediscover – not to throw out education, but to rethink, ‘What is education?’ And, if we can do that, we will get somewhere; if we do not, we’ll go the way Dylan has told us we’re going. Andrew Haldenby: Let’s just put those to the panel. So, if you like the questions for Nick Gibb would be – and the panel can tell us their answers – the last Conservative government introduced, it was the last Conservative government, wasn’t it, introduced league tables, which have been modified over the years, but it’s the same point, they’ve driven schools towards something which actually isn’t education – and David used the word ‘fake.’ It sounds a bit like the financial markets selling products which don’t even have any value. So we’ve created this completely fake activity. Is that right? What are you going to do about that? I don’t think you gave a name, the headteacher from Cheltenham, but, absolutely fundamental: ‘Nick Gibb, what are you going to do, faced with the fact that the social background of kids is one of the key determinants of education?’ ‘How would you respond to that?’ And then, as Tony Gardiner says, ‘how do you encourage the ethos of schools,’ which might actually be stronger in independent schools. The real question is ‘how do we foster the ethos of education in schools?’ And we won’t do it in the same order. So why don’t we start with Francis and Dylan, then Camilla and Paul? Francis O’Gorman: I very much agree with what Camilla said about the division between independent and state schools being fundamental. I think, crudely put, a substantial amount of the middle classes have a real interest in state education and do not have the option of simply 72 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform buying their way out it. We have a real problem. I think, for me, the question of league tables was very clearly put and enabling. It connects slightly awkwardly, I think, with what Dylan had been saying about accountability because I think league tables are often the product of an attempt to create the regime of accountability. That’s a noble aim but its consequences have been very … they’ve driven very unacceptable behaviours. And that’s true in the university sector as well as in the schools sector. So I think that, picking up on what Dylan had said about … was it supportive accountability? Dylan Wiliam: Intelligent accountability. Francis O’Gorman: … Intelligent accountability … Dylan Wiliam: And supportive accountability. Francis O’Gorman: Wow! I would like to hear a hell of a lot more about that. Dylan Wiliam: Let me flesh out a few of the elements of an intelligent accountability system. So, for example, one of the first things I recommend for Nick Gibb to do is to take the equivalence tariff – the read off table – off the DFE [Department for Education] and give it to Ofqual. We have to have an independent assessment of whether the standards reached in these quadruple GCSEs in information technology – which I’m told schools do in an afternoon a week We need to turn our schools these days – and yet into being talent factories give you four GCSEs those really so that we are generating –arewhether equivalent to a talent; we are nurturing it; GCSE grade C in we are incubating it and we computer science. So I mean, I think we need are finding talent where to take that away from we didn’t think it existed, government because, rather than just being clearly, there’s been a neutral about hoping that vested interest. We’re the talent will rise to the top. letting the fox guard the hen house and that’s not a good idea. The other important thing about the intelligent accountability is that it needs to not to create incentives for people to do things we don’t want them to do. It’s the simplest idea in the world. And yet, we do things that are exactly counter to what we want them to do. We put in place incentives for schools to choose the highest achieving students. So now we’re moving away from CVA [Contextualised Valued Added] – which people may not like it but it is, by some margin, the best measure we have of how much kids are learning in a school – and we’re placing more emphasis on raw results. Ofsted has reduced its emphasis on CVA and is now looking at the quality of teaching. I have no faith in Ofsted’s ability to know good teaching when it sees it because the kinds of schools it celebrates are actually not that good. Of the 12 outstanding secondary schools, six had got worse the following year. So I call this ‘the curse of Ofsted.’ I think the other important thing is then to see ‘what are schools doing to advantage the kinds of things a society wants them to do?’ And I think, in particular, this notion of combating disadvantage is particularly relevant here. What we’ve discovered recently is that … For many years, I believed that schools cannot compensate for society and I listened to [Russell Bernstein] when he said that. And what I have been amazed to discover is that, in the classrooms of the very best teachers, children with disadvantaged backgrounds learn just as much as those from advantaged backgrounds. Those with emotional and behavioural difficulties learn just as much as those without those difficulties. And so, what we have is a fundamental paradox: equal distribution of teacher quality does not produce equal outcomes. Because, being middle class confers an immunity against bad teaching. Middle class kids make sense of bad teaching in a way that working class kids can’t. And therefore, if we’re serious about maximising the talent in this country, we have to make sure that we’re getting the best teachers for the kids who need them most. Our current policy is treating education like a talent refinery: we allow kids to come up … We put a little knowledge in front of kids and we expect the best ones to rise to the top. And, if they don’t rise to the top, ‘Well, they’re not meant to do that subject.’ We need to change our schools into being talent factories so that we are generating talent; we are nurturing it; we are incubating it and we are finding talent where we didn’t think it existed, rather than just being neutral about hoping that the talent will rise to the top. Camilla Cavendish: Yes. Just on that point that’s one of the things that Teach for America and Teach First will try to do – is put supposedly bright, energetic people into the worst schools. So there is a sort of model there, perhaps. On the league tables, there are a number of other factors, I would suggest, which are also driving this problem. One is the early specialisation. I mean we are asking children to choose a very narrow range of subjects at a very early age. And that, I think, also first of all, it’s not very good for late developers but, also, it does encourage, even more, the choice of soft subjects over hard ones. And, in fact, at this summit we had at The Times on Monday, Sir John Rolls, who’s head of Rolls Royce, said ‘do you think that people in China and India are worrying about the thousands and tens of thousands of graduates in media studies?’ None of whom, have ever, to my knowledge have got a job in journalism. So it’s back to David Perks’ point, we are constantly misleading our kids about what actually represents value later on and how they’re going to get a job. So early specialisation is a problem. I think one of the other issues between independent and state schools is that, of course, as you know, the independent schools are now able to choose international exams. They’re able to choose We are constantly the IGCSE, the misleading our kids about International Baccalaureate; state what actually represents schools are not allowed value later on and how to move to those they’re going to get a job. exams. Again, that’s going to be another gulf: if we don’t have challenging enough exams. Then you’ve got the modularisation problem. A lot of bright kids at schools I go to feel they’ve absolutely lost all interest in learning anything with these … They’ve got the multiple choice problem; you’ve got the modularisation problem; it’s absolutely … It’s exactly … As you said, it’s the unintended consequence of this that we’re just squashing out all creativity from the system. And the only other thing I’d say is that, on Francis’ point, I know exactly what you mean about independent versus state and I’m always surprised. But we still only seem to have seven per cent of people in the independent sector. So we’ve got a hell of a lot of other middle class people who are not actually buying their way out. But they’re doing it through post code, aren’t they? Which is a slightly different thing. Andrew Haldenby: They’re buying property in catchment areas, aren’t they? Camilla Cavendish: Yes, but they’re still in the state-funded sector. Andrew Haldenby: Yes. Paul? Paul Woodgates: I was struck by the last comment from the floor about the binding together some of the things that we’d spoken about in our introductory pieces – which is absolutely right. We’re talking here about a system which is a system in the true sense of the word. A whole series of things that are hugely interlinked and really quite complex. And that, I think, draws us to Dylan’s point about having a logic model that really lets us understand ‘if you do this and if you do that, then this will happen.’ And that has to be based on evidence. It has to based on a proper understanding and testing and real research of the fact that ‘if you do these two things, this will be the outcome.’ That’s how we avoid the unintended outcomes. The other thing that struck me was, Camilla, I think it was you that mentioned that everybody’s an expert in education. And, I have to admit, I find myself doing that. It’s very, very easy, based on eleven years of schooling and three years of university to believe that you know all about how education works. And, actually, as Dylan shows, it’s actually a bit more complex than you think. I have traditionally believed that small class sizes are a good thing. Having seen some of Dylan’s research, actually, it’s not a simple as that. There’s a whole lot more stuff going on in there. And it’s that that needs to be brought into that debate about ‘if you do A and if you B, then C happens.’ And part of that has to be about the implementation challenge as well: that there are some human behaviours in here – that individual people need to do individual things in order for reform to happen. And it’s that, in the end, that will drive it. Otherwise, it’s purely an academic exercise. One other thing I want to point out: Francis, I absolutely agree, it absolutely is about universities. Schools don’t exist in isolation. Just, let’s also not forget there’s a further education sector and a whole set of stuff around that which is important as well. And, actually, this is about the whole span of education, from birth to grave, of which schools is clearly an important part but not the only part. www.reform.co.uk 73 Schools for the future / Reform Andrew Haldenby: Seven minutes to go till coffee. Let me just take another three from you. Just an observation: the tendency in discussions like this is almost to slightly look to the negative and whether people want to touch on things that don’t need to be ripped up and can be encouraged, we might have a bit of that. And now there’s thirty hands so this is impossible. So I’ll be unfair and just pick another three. So the gentleman here and the two hands that were at the front here. Bene’t Steinberg: Hi. Bene’t Steinberg from Cambridge Assessment. When we look at things like this we also need to look – as Professor O’Gorman said – back to the past and ‘what was the case before we started?’ When we didn’t have league tables, nobody actually knew anything about schools and there was very little accountability and you had to go round and ask all sorts of people to find out whether the school you wanted to go to was actually any good. That was the first thing. The second thing is league tables weren’t invented by the government, they were invented by The Sunday Telegraph. Once the government started producing the figures The Telegraph started producing league tables and everybody else went along with it and the league tables are different for every newspaper because they all had their own axe to grind. Thirdly, before there were equivalences, hardly anybody did any vocational qualifications at all, they came out of school with no qualifications at sixteen and they got some kind of peasant job. Peasant jobs don’t exist in this country anymore, so one can think about what you do with equivalences but, again, back to the usual, it’s a lot more complicated than that. Tessa Keswick: Tessa Keswick. So many interesting points have been raised. It’s a fascinating discussion but I just wanted to say, if we want to improve … I think the section we’re talking about really is primary level and learning to read, write and add up. The statistics there remain extremely as they were in 1997 – about 28 per cent, I think, on the HMI or Ofsted figures. If we want to do something quickly about this key area, surely we do have to look at getting rid of bad teachers. I understand, and I hate to say this in this august company, but I understand less than a dozen teachers have been sacked in the last ten years. And this does seem completely incredible really. We need to do things quicker to get these children up to speed. And I go all over the Far East where we see children learning – admittedly by rote – two alphabets, quite often, and they all learn to read. They work very, very hard at it, they learn to add up, they learn the basics. I’d ask Camilla – second question – it’s all very well, these new schools – which, no doubt will be excellent – but, unless you work out exactly who the good teachers are, you’re giving independence and freedom to people who may not be very good. And where do you go from there? How do you control it? Who controls it? And who will be the authority there? Andrew Haldenby: Thank you. And one other hand is just behind. Forgive me; this is a bit arbitrary. 74 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform Chris Kirk: Chris Kirk from PricewaterhouseCoopers. I guess I just want to lift the descending gloom a little bit as well because I feel more optimistic about some of the things that we could do now. And I think we have to be careful not to let the average statistics – which, I agree with Dylan, entirely show that social background is the big determinate – get us away from the fact that one can still find case studies of schools which completely buck that trend. And that is possible. I was in a very inspiring school just a few days ago where the previous school regime had pretty well given up on the community that it was in. And a new head came in, decided ‘actually, the first thing we need to do is really, is not so much about “how can the community learn about our school?” it’s “how can our school learn about the community, what it needs, how we can really engage with it and then start to find a way to help pupils learn?”’ And we’ve been doing some work on ‘capable communities’ with IPPR and, I guess, looking at the notion of Big Society, ‘can it be made to work if the background is such a big determinate?’ ‘What can schools do to get involved in that?’ I believe they can, I believe they do and I think we’ve probably all seen schools that have achieved that. I think the big question for me is ‘how do we scale that?’ ‘Is that scalable and what do we do?’ And I would caution against thinking that simply academies or free schools is the answer. Some of them will be. As with the academies programmes, some of them won’t be. And I think we need to understand what sits behind that that’s been the recipes for success. Andrew Haldenby: So those comments are a little bit more now into the detail of it. Bene’t Steinberg said that these things may not be perfect, they were invented for a reason. And then two points on teaching: firstly, isn’t there just an immediate thing for Nick Gibb or any minister to do, if teaching matters, then about poor quality teachers? But then, on the positive side, ‘how can effective teaching, and how that works in a school setting, be scaled up? So can we just take comments on that from the panel and we’ll start with Professor Wiliam and go this way. Dylan Wiliam: It turns out to be much more difficult than it looks because Teach for America – for example – doesn’t seem to produce any better student progress than teachers brought in through other routes. But we do know that teacher IQ matters. One of the extraordinary successes of our educational system over the past thirty or forty years is to get anything like the quality we used to have when women – very smart young women – are no longer tied to teaching in the way that they were thirty, forty, fifty years ago. So there is evidence in the US – slightly less strong evidence here – that teacher IQs are actually dropping in this country, mostly because females are now having a wider set of opportunities. But, having smarter teachers does seem to make a difference. So I’m in favour of anything that will actually improve the quality of teachers. So, let’s, by all means, deselect the bad teachers but there’s no point in deselecting them if the ones you end up replacing them with are worse. So Dunlop’s approach was to fire 10 per cent of every company’s workforce and replace them. But it worked because, generally, you could get in better people. But you’d better check that you can get in better people, otherwise you’ll be hiring back the people you’ve just sacked. But the point is that, if we’re serious about scaling these solutions, the top end – Teach for America – getting really smart Oxbridge graduates into our schools and getting rid of the least effective teachers – are not going to move the system in any kind of way that’s scalable over a timescale of less than twenty years. If you’re serious about improving education, you have to have a relentless focus on getting teachers to improve their practice – their day-to-day, in the classroom, practice. That’s what’s got to get better. We know how to do it in groups of twenty or thirty teachers, we don’t know how to do it across 300,000 classrooms. Francis O’Gorman: I guess, this sounds a perverse thing to say, I don’t really like the equivalence between smartness and IQ. And I, personally, think that smartness is quite a challenging metric to use for ‘good teaching.’ It seems to me that there’s a nature of belief in a good teacher – a kind of passion and a commitment – which is from themselves, which is fundamental. And I wouldn’t want to use any other metrics – so-to-speak – at the top of the pile – than that. I think I’m going to pause it there. Camilla Cavendish: Okay. Very briefly because we’re running out of time. On Tessa’s specific point about ‘who will control the free schools?’ I mean, it’s going to be governing bodies. So there is an issue about ‘are governing bodies good enough to make these sorts of decisions?’ I mean that’s quite an interesting issue. But, on the general teaching point, I spent most of my career in business What we need to do is before I became a decide what’s important journalist. And we seem which, based on this to forget about discussion, is all about management. I mean, a teacher quality - and create lot of employees – just an accountability framework like teachers – are not good or bad that’s specifically designed necessarily at their job. They can be to improve teacher quality. doing terribly badly but, if they have right management, they can do a hell of a lot better. So I think, obviously, you’ve always got some bad apples but I think a lot of this goes back to what I said at the beginning about teaching about being a rather odd profession and being regarded in a different way to every other. Well, actually, the truth is you’ve got a team: you’ve got a headteacher, you manage those people. Frankly, you should probably also pay them by performance and a whole lot of other things that you would do if you were in the private sector. But I just think the management issue should not be overlooked. Paul Woodgates: A final thought from me. In terms of a word that’s come up a number of times in this debate – it is ‘accountability’ and the problems with accountability that have been driven down into league tables and so on. At heart it seems to me that that debate is actually quite simple. What we need to do is decide what’s important – which, based on this discussion, is all about teacher quality – and create an accountability framework that’s specifically designed to improve teacher quality. If that happens, then the right dynamics go into the system and the right things – whether that’s dismissing poor teachers or coaching existing teachers or recruiting better new teachers – all of those things come out if the accountability framework is fundamentally designed to deliver that outcome. Andrew Haldenby: Right. Well, that’s finished now because we’re four minutes over – for which I apologise. So, what I’ll do is, I’ll say to Nick Gibb that in our previous discussion, we thought that what he needs to focus on is teacher quality and also a sense that state education has become skewed by the wrong kind of accountability – David made the point which everyone has supported – and he needs to stop that right now and think about the right model of accountability to move the system. So thank you.That’s a very lively way to begin the day, which is great. And thank you for your enthusiasm. We will go straight to coffee and come back five minutes later – 10.35. And thank you to our panel. Supporting quality teaching Nick Seddon: Thank you for joining us again for the next session. Before I start, I’m told that Cambridge Assessment want to tell you that you shouldn’t worry too much about ethics and they want you to steal stuff from the stand over there. So we’re going to talk about quality in this session, and of course we’ve already started, we’ve already done a fair amount of talking about quality in the first session and hopefully we’ll be able to continue and develop the thinking that’s happened there, but I was just remembering as I was sitting watching, in the spirit of erudition, that there’s a line in Hamlet when he says ‘come, show us a taste of your quality,’ and that I hope what we’ll get a chance to do today. There are lots of issues to talk about, and some of those were started off this morning, the question of the quality of teaching and quality and quantity, and what the most important factors are, and Dylan Wiliam of course made it very clear that it was about the quality of the teaching not the quantity. But we’re also going to talk about technology and about innovation, and about the kinds of tools that will help teaching to become more effective and help schools to deliver teaching in a more effective way, and of course I’m sure we’ll also talk about accountability and the different accountability measures that we were talking about this morning and develop some of our thinking there. I’m joined by a superb panel of speakers and each will speak for five minutes, and then we’ll go to the same kind of Q&A that we had this morning. We have the recently lauded, I don’t know what the phrase is? Jim Knight: Ennobled is the term. Nick Seddon: Ennobled, there we go, ennobled Jim Knight, for which should go many congratulations, who is going to have to leave slightly early because he is going to give his maiden speech today in the House of Lords, which is very exciting. As many of you will know, Jim spent nine years as an MP and five of those as a Minister with www.reform.co.uk 75 Schools for the future / Reform portfolios across a number of different departments, Environment, Education, Employment and Digital Technology, so he knows what he’s talking about. As do, indeed, the other people that are on the panel, many of whom, I think all of whom, have spent their entire lives in education one way or another. We have Rod Bristow, who has certainly spent his entire time in education, and he’s the President of Pearson UK. We have Sir John Holman, who has spent his life in science and particularly chemistry as far as I understand it, in both the school and the university context, and is now the Director of The National Science Learning Centre at the University of York. And we have Professor Judy Sebba, who has been both a teacher and a senior civil servant, and researcher at Cambridge and Manchester Universities. She is now Professor of Education and Director of Research and Knowledge Exchange at the University of Sussex. So we will, Jim Knight, Lord Knight, sorry, I’m terrible. Jim Knight: Call me Jim. Nick Seddon: Lord Knight is not going to start the speaking. Jim Knight: I can if you like? Nick Seddon: Let’s start with Rod and we’ll go down, and then we’ll come to Jim last. So, Rod, thank you. Rod Bristow: Okay, thank you. Well I feel quite privileged to work for Pearson, not just because Pearson is one of the UK’s leading education companies at a time when education is more important than it has ever been, but also because of the diversity of things that we get the opportunity to get involved in, whether it be with publishing, through technology or through our awarding body, Edexcel. I often get asked ‘what is it, you know, of all the things that you’re involved in, what are the things that make the most difference, what are the things that improve learning more than anything?’, and my answer is invariably: ‘I’m afraid it is not great publishing, it is not great textbooks, it’s not the great curriculum that we’ve devised, it’s not even the great technology that we’ve got, it is actually great teachers.’ It is great teaching that really does make the biggest difference in education, and I know that not just through my experience, I still do remember when I was at school, but I know it as a parent, and I know how important the teachers are to my kids, and I know what a difference it makes having really great teachers. I do think a lot about what it is about a teacher that really does make that difference, and I wouldn’t like to actually come up with just a list of characteristics because I actually think that there are many. There’s real value in diversity and I think there are lots of different teachers, who are quite different than each other, that can be great teachers. But I do think that all great teachers have the ability to get the very most out of the students, the kids that are in their charge: if you like they get their kids to really work hard.You can express that in terms of they’re really well engaged or they knuckle down, whichever way you want to put it, they really do have 76 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform the ability, and I think really, really great teachers have the ability to get the kids to actually want to do it without being made to. So I think that having great teachers, of course, is central to our ability to improve learning. But, I think as we look forward the pressures that teachers are under and thinking about the fact that education is more important than it has ever been, that the expectations of education are more important, that we’re constantly looking for improvements, improvements in learning outcomes: we’re in an environment where everybody is demanding more, whether it be employers, parents, indeed politicians, are looking for more to come out, rightly to come out of the education system. And it is not just looking at our improvement year-on-year, I think increasingly we’re looking at how we as a country are doing when we compare ourselves with other countries in the world. So even though great teachers in their own right are crucially important, it seems to me that great teachers are going to need more help as time goes on, for them to do it on their own as time goes on, it’s unlikely to be enough. And when I think about what great teachers have to do, it is about getting kids to work hard, to really, truly engage, to engage in something that’s not just engaging but is also worthwhile, stretching if you like that is meaningful, that really does take the learner to a different place, a different level of understanding. So they’ve got to do that on the one hand, but the other thing that a teacher has to do is to have a pretty good understanding of the needs of the students in front of them, to know where they are in their learning, for the whole class but for the individual learner as well, to really understand what it is for that particular student that they may be struggling with, what they may have mastered particularly well. So that engagement and that understanding, if you like, the data, are the two really important things that teachers have to do. On the data point, I think it’s something that Michael Gove calls ‘intelligent accountability,’ and increasingly we are bound to be looking more and more to an evidence based approach to education. How well are our kids really doing and what can we learn from how well they’re really doing? That data is crucially important. Now, as an industry, in education, we’ve made a lot of progress. There’s a lot more data available now than there’s ever been. It’s true of Edexcel. But it’s not only true of Edexcel, other exam boards have also implemented systems of on-screen marking, whereby a huge amount of data, as a result of the technology that’s been used to do the marking, is now available to schools. They can see how well individual cohorts have done in an exam, they can compare their performance with other schools, other similar schools, and they can look in a very, very granular way down as well into individual papers, into individual questions, individual students on individual questions, and as a result of that are able to form conclusions about where maybe for the next cohort they could improve, what types of learning did they perhaps fall down on in that last paper. So there’s a huge amount of data available. Not all that data is being used, I have to say. There is the take-up of it, it’s patchy, and when I talk to teachers about it they often tell me, ‘well yeah, actually we haven’t got round to it, we didn’t know about it.’ There are many reasons why they’re not using it, but it’s not all being used as much as it could be. The other thing that is afforded through technology is this idea of engagement. The thing that technology can really bring is this idea of learning-bydoing, and we know that this is not just about vocational learning, even for academic subjects the learning-by-doing approach makes an enormous difference. If you take mathematics, most teachers, and indeed mathematics professors that I talk to, all talk about the importance of learning-by-doing in terms of really getting to understand those concepts. Learningby-doing is a lot harder when you’re sitting down with a blank bit of paper and textbook than it is when you’re sitting with a piece of technology, a Bring a teacher from 100 years ago to today, they’d sophisticated homework system that pretty much know where can tell you where they were. They’d be you’ve gone wrong, not standing in front of a class just that you’ve gone wrong but where … and they’d be doing you’ve gone wrong. whole class teaching And in my case, when I’ve been trying to help my son, who’s doing his GCSE maths, or has just done his GCSE maths, I’ve been trying to help him do his homework and every now and then I might stumble across a question that I actually get right and I don’t know why I’ve got it right, it tells you, it might tell you why you’ve got it right as well. You can click on a button and you can find out, you can get a lot more ‘try this,’ ‘try that,’ you can get an infinite number of worked examples which a textbook can never give you, and it gives you a lot of data as well, it gives you the data as a learner as to where you’re going wrong and it can create a personalised learning plan for you, and it gives that data back to the teacher. But it’s very much learningby-doing, and the nature of it being relatively impersonal because it is computer-based, there’s no threat to you as a learner, it really does improve, it really does improve that engagement and that idea of learning-by-doing, and we know that the kids actually work harder when they’ve got these systems than they do when they’ve got to sit down with a pen and paper, they do more work. Now the interesting thing about all these fantastic technologies that are out there is they’re not yet really being used. There is that old analogy that if you were to bring a doctor from a 100 years ago into the future and bring them into a hospital and they were surrounded by computer screens and medical equipment and scanners and the like, they really wouldn’t know where they were or what to do. If you do the same thing for a teacher, bring a teacher from 100 years ago to today, they’d pretty much know where they were. They’d be standing in front of a class, they might have an electronic whiteboard but they’d still have something at the front, they’d be standing there and they’d be doing whole class teaching. The environment hasn’t yet been really transformed in education, but it seems to me that it is just a question of time. Why would education be immune from the progress that technology has brought to every other sphere of life? But it is about the commitment, the belief in that technology, and I think we’re at a very important point in our development in that regard. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much. John, would you like to? John Holman: I think we’re all implicitly assuming that what we’re talking here today about is England, but I’d just like to remind everyone that the UK includes three other education systems as well. [Really?] Where are you from? I actually want to talk about something that you will think is blindingly obvious, but I think it’s so important that I’m going to say it and spend five minutes developing it, and that is that the really important thing about what goes on in schools is teaching subjects well, and good teaching and learning in schools is about good teaching of a particular subject by a person who really knows that subject well. So that’s my thesis. Now, as I said, this may seem blindingly obvious, but it’s quite easy to take your eye off that particular ball. When you’re a head teacher, for example, you have many other agendas going on; obesity, healthy schools, teenage pregnancy, we can think of many, many other things which schools are often expected to deal with. And in handling all of those agendas head teachers and their management teams often tend to take away what should be a relentless focus on people, teachers in classrooms teaching subjects very well, because that’s what goes on day in, day out in schools. Subject teaching is what defines the agenda in schools, and what children take home from schools is about what happened in a particular subject with a particular teacher; that’s particularly true in secondary schools, but it’s true in primary schools as well. And for teachers, being an expert in teaching your subject is, for most teachers, the definition of their professionalism. It’s how they feel about themselves, about their position in that school, and about whether they’re doing their job well or not, it’s at the heart of their professionalism. And by the way, that is also true in primary schools, despite the fact that teachers have to be specialist across more than one subject. Why is this so important? Well it’s important because, firstly, there is very clear evidence that teachers who are specialist in their subject teach that subject more successfully than those who aren’t, as evidenced from Ofsted and elsewhere about that. Now we can all think of examples. For There is very clear evidence example, a physics teacher who has a PhD, that teachers who are knew everything there specialist in their subject was to know about teach that subject more physics: terrible teacher. successfully than those We can all think of opposite examples, of a who aren’t PE teacher who didn’t know much history but was a superb history teacher. But those cases don’t prove that the rule is not generally true, that when other things are equal subject specialist are more effective, and particularly if they are up-todate with their subject and the ways of teaching it. I have to say that head teachers don’t always have that at the top of their mind when appointing. I know that, and I’ve been a head teacher, and I know that when faced with a vacancy for a mathematics teacher at the end of May, what you really want to do is to get someone in front of those kids, who will be able to control them and get some kind of learning going on. www.reform.co.uk 77 Schools for the future / Reform Those sorts of considerations often drive head teachers to make compromises, which in the long-term are not in the best interest of high quality subject teaching. So there’s a lot here about school management and about the behaviour of head teachers and leadership teams and governors around celebrating really good subject knowledge and subject teaching, and publicly celebrating it and publicly prioritising it, and helping teachers to see that that is where they should focus and to help them to navigate their way through all the many other agendas that go on in schools during the day, for example, behaviour management. Just to develop once more why subject knowledge is so important, if a teacher is teaching a mixed ability class, he or she will often have a situation where they need to explain in depth a complex idea. If their knowledge is in depth, if their understanding of that complex idea is secure, they can think around how to explain it. Now I know that that physicist PhD who knows everything there is to know about physics may not have a clear feeling for where the class’ sense lies, but that’s about training and that’s about professional development.The rule still applies. And There’s still a long, long way another point about to go in bedding in schools subject knowledge and of subject with head teachers a culture depth knowledge is that if that says ‘continuing bright youngsters, professional development youngsters who are very much ahead of things, is important for teachers’ they’re miles ahead of where the class is, keep asking questions, a teacher with good, rich, deep subject knowledge can respond and stimulate. So that’s the thesis, now what do we do about it? It’s about, as always with issues around teacher quality, it’s about recruiting and about training those who are already in place. So it’s about recruiting subject specialists into teaching who have the best possible qualifications we have, so we’ve heard earlier about the importance of teacher quality. There is some good news around there, the Training and Development Agency has just reported very significant increases in applications to train as teachers; 40 per cent, for example, increase in science, 33 per cent increase in mathematics. They’ve also reported an increase in the quality, so 5 per cent increase in the numbers of teachers who have Firsts or 2.1s. Of course this is a result of all sorts of things, many of them economic. We have a spike we should take advantage of, keep recruiting, get them into the schools, and give them great experiences so that those teachers stay in schools. So that’s about the recruitment. The second part of it is about up-to-date subject knowledge, and here continuing professional development, there’s still a long, long way to go in bedding in schools with head teachers a culture that says ‘continuing professional development is important for teachers,’ and that the most important part of it is around their subject knowledge. Much professional development in schools tends to be generic, whole school issues. I’m not saying that these aren’t important, but this can take the eye off the really important part of keeping a teacher up-to-date with his or her subject knowledge and skills in how to teach it. So this isn’t a call for back to basics, let me be very clear about that. I’ve deliberately not defined what subjects are, haven’t said anything about skills and facts 78 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform and learning and any of those issues. It’s not about going back to a particular type of subject or type of curriculum, it’s about focusing on subjects for the benefit of teacher and for the pupils that they teach. Subject teaching is part of the rhythm of school life, it defines the experience for pupils and teachers, and if you get subject teaching right most of the other whole school thing such as behaviour will follow. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much. Judy? We’re still going to squeeze in I think. Judy Sebba: Okay. Right, well thank you very much, it’s always a challenge to squeeze 35 years of research in education into five minutes, so it’s no different to what I had to do in my six years in the Department. Okay, in the current climate nothing I’m going to say is going to imply extra funding.That won’t surprise you. I really am concerned to build on a point actually that Rod has made, that we have a great deal more evidence than we use and a great deal more data than we use, and therefore how we jig things so that people can make better use of it is what underlies what I want to say. We have two major factors which we know impact on pupils’ learning – school leadership and the quality of teaching. Today, this session is about specifically the quality of teaching, but therefore I’d like to see the school leaders alongside the policy makers as facilitators and supporters of that quality of teaching, and so I want to make four points. The first is not in the little written bit in there I’m afraid, that a recent study on teacher effectiveness defined in terms of pupil outcomes concluded that, first of all, teachers in the later phases of their careers were more vulnerable to pressures of various sorts, such as illness or family circumstances or whatever, even professional pressures within the school. Yet we very understandably, given the early dropout rate, sorry, the high dropout rate from early teachers, we focus our investment I think at the moment predominantly in the early years of teaching, and I think this is a bit of a problem that we need to reconsider. I’m not saying we don’t need to do that, to invest in the early years, I’m simply saying we need to look at that balance. Secondly, that teachers who are on an upward trajectory, and we don’t have time in this session to define what that is, or a stable trajectory, in other words they are developing and that is well explained in the research, have better outcomes for pupils, which merely goes to confirm what other speakers have already said this morning, that while schools matter, teaching matters more, and that is regardless of either levels of deprivation or school context. My second main point is to say that we all learn better when we get feedback on our performance that identifies the next steps we need to take to improve, and teachers are no different, but one of the main ways in which we’ve implemented support for teachers on this, and are continuing to do so and I’m delighted about this, is through teacher coaching of one another. However, the way in which we’ve implemented teacher coaching, and continue to do so, is actually not the way that the research suggests is most effective, and that’s because the research findings in this area are counter intuitive. The person who learns most in the coaching situation is the observer, not the person being observed, and yet we continue to persist in implementing a coaching policy, and I’m delighted that it is being implemented but let’s try and get it right, which works the other way round. Thirdly, pupils are ongoing consumers of teaching. There has been a small but very vocal proportion of the teaching profession who have regarded pupils’ evaluation of teaching as a threat, and that has been rather highly publicised in the press. Schools that seek pupils’ evaluation of teaching on a regular basis, train pupils to evaluate sensitively and feedback sensitively, manage to improve the quality of their teaching considerably, and we have excellent examples of this from the UNICEF UK’s Rights Respecting Schools Programme, which now has a thousand schools in it, one of the best examples actually is in your area of Dorset. So I would argue here that we need to reconsider this, it can’t be right for us to say ‘we can’t have pupils evaluating teaching,’ they do so every day of their school life, it’s just that we don’t ask them for the feedback. Fourthly, and finally, dictating to teachers every step that they must take has been a misinterpretation of developing an evidence-informed profession. We need to provide accessible, synthesised, robust evidence for teachers. We’ve made some progress on this but nowhere near enough, and, more problematically, we need to create an expectation and space in their busy days for them to use it, which comes back to your data use problem, because at the moment some other professions, not many have expectation to use research and to use evidence in their professional standards, and teaching does not in the regular standard, and then to let teachers experiment, or what some colleagues have called ‘tinker’, in order to improve the quality of teaching for all pupils for whom they’re responsible. So, in conclusion, I would say accessible evidence and a licence to experiment, with ongoing feedback from pupils and properly implemented coaching, the quality of teaching will improve. It is now up to the policy makers and the school leaders to implement it. Nick Seddon: Thank you. Jim? I’m sorry we’ve overrun. Jim Knight: That’s fine, but I will magically disappear in six minutes. It’s really good to be back in front of an education audience again after a year’s break in the world of employment. It was slightly challenging to see all of the problems that we didn’t fix in education then coming home to roost for me in employment, but it is generally good to be back and I’ve chosen to be here rather than being told to be here by my diary secretary, and that’s also a good thing because it is an area where I want to dwell on as a member now in the House of Lords. In respect of high quality teaching I almost choked on my muesli a couple of weeks ago when the new Secretary of State, my good friend, Michael, talked about what a good generation of new teachers we’ve got. It’s about the first time he’s paid tribute to the legacy that he’s received, and in many ways I think he does have a good legacy in respect of the quality of the teaching profession, and as the introduction to this in the Reform brochure says, we’ve got many more teachers and support staff, and in many ways that is why I think we’ve seen the steady improvement in educational performance over the last 10-15 years. It’s because we have invested in the workforce and they’ve got better, so it shouldn’t really be a great surprise. The challenge now is of course that there probably isn’t going to be any more growth in the numbers of teachers because of Whilst the biggest funding constraints, and we’ve got to get determinant of success productivity up in a classroom is teaching, their and keep that success for a school is improvement. But, more down to the quality alongside it, if we are going to make the big of leadership step changes in improvement, you’ve also got to look at leadership, because whilst the biggest determinants of success in a classroom is teaching, success for a school is more down to the quality of leadership, and of course the success of the child, him or herself, is down to the quality of the parenting. So this isn’t just about teaching, so that’s a bit of a warning shot around the subject for discussion, but I’ll just leave that aside. In terms of recruitment, as we’ve heard, recession helps, and my recent background in employment makes me worry somewhat that unemployment will go back up again. So I think we will have a nice window over a period of time where people will want to go into teaching as long as public servants aren’t ridiculed too much in the popular press, and so that’s a good opportunity with things like Teach First, with things like the Graduate Teacher Programme, Transition to Teaching as well as the traditional routes in, to bring in a really good swathe of new and enthusiastic teachers, particularly in the shortage subjects like science that John looks after, and then continue I hope with some of the CPD, like a Masters in Teaching and Learning I think, from what Judy’s been saying, around making sure we get that collaborative coaching right, but I think we’ve got some really good practice to build on there. Similarly, I hope that, in a time of funding constraint, that it’s the support staff and the teaching assistants who don’t then pay the price and that we lose those in classrooms again, because I think they’re a fantastic resource in supporting high quality teaching. I have my worries about how they’re being deployed in some cases, that they’ve been used as the place to park the difficult children, those with special needs, those who are just struggling to be with the majority that the teaching is being aimed at, and that in the end you therefore get the more highly qualified teacher in the classroom focusing on those that need the help less than the minority, who get parked with the less qualified. I think that’s something that we need to have the confidence to address within schools and within classrooms, and that requires flexibility. Some of you may remember that the moment when I got into the most trouble I think, apart from my spelling as Schools Minister, was when I had an ATL conference, someone asked me about class size, and I said I’d seen a fantastic maths class I think it was in a class size of 70. Now what I went on to say was that there was more than one teacher in that class, but the headline was good so they ran with it, but that kind of practice, of having more than one teacher in larger, more flexible spaces, it goes back to www.reform.co.uk 79 Schools for the future / Reform what was said about getting the design right, has the opportunity to create much more engaging, much more personalised learning. If you then are also using technology and you’re using the possibility of collaboration between pupils as well as between teachers, teachers learning from each other in a classroom, that is an opportunity that we should grasp more, alongside a more flexible curriculum. And I have to say I regret the Rose Primary Curriculum being abandoned because I think that was offering much more flexibility within the curriculum for teachers to be able to use their professionalism better, but there are new tools now that then we can use to increase the productivity and the success of teaching further. We’ve talked a bit about accountability, I share some of my friends and the unions’ concerns about something as crude as Rate My Teacher, but I absolutely agree around pupil evaluation, and we should systematise that and roll that out as widely and as rapidly as we can, done sensitively, with proper training for pupils, and technology and data does allow better accountability. There is a problem around measurability and what is measurable, because I think we focus too much in this country and in many educational jurisdictions on the academic. We have a system that’s still designed around creating professors rather than necessarily meeting the skills needs of the wider economy, and again, as a former Employment Minister, I’m a little bit more conscious of that. So we need a system of accountability that also measures things that are much more difficult to measure. Creativity is something that employers tell me all the time they want to see; collaboration, leadership, communication, all of those things that are somewhat more challenging than whether or not you’re good at maths, perhaps. Technology also allows us better parental engagement and allows us to develop new pedagogy, it allows us true subject associations and brings subject teachers together online to develop more collaboration and to extend and deepen that subject specialism and share what works in the classroom better. So I think there are plenty of things we can use the new tools for. We’ve got to be cautious about the market. I was very concerned around school management systems, that there was a market that was pretty much dominated by one or two players, and bringing in new products, new flexibilities within that market is something that needs to be managed. But in the end what I’d say to you about the future is, we have to grasp, particularly with the demise of BECTA, there’s a challenge for us now to make sure that we’ve got good enough engagement and good enough collaboration across the system to really use these tools, because the future, and education is about that, the future workplace that people are going into, the future world and leisure world that people are going into, is about collaboration and creativity. These technology tools allow us to do that, they allow us to do education in a more engaging and exciting way, and if we don’t grasp that opportunity and learn from each other and collaborate with each other on how we do that best then we miss a massive trick for the country as a whole, as well as for all the children who live here. Thank you, I must go. 80 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform Nick Seddon: Thank you. Thank you very much. Right, l’ve lots and lots to chew on here. Clearly a very, very strong stress on the importance of teaching across each of the speakers, with also an emphasis on the importance of tools that can help transform the way that they teach and support teaching. John put a particularly strong emphasis on the importance of teaching subjects and subject specialism, and also you expressed some optimism about the quality and specialism of teachers, which is also something that Jim Knight did. And Judy, you put a very strong stress not only on the quality of teaching but also on the accessibility of evidence and evaluation, and also the way that teachers are managed, that school leaders deploy teachers. And then Jim talked about the connection between employment and education quite a lot, and the way that education feeds into the wider economy. I mean, that was a lovely phrase, ‘the problems we didn’t fix in education are coming home to roost in employment.’ So there are all sorts of things for us to feed on, so if questions come I’ll take them in clutches and then we can go through them. Okay, yes, gentleman here? Robert Butler: Name’s Robert Butler, I come from deepest Devon, and that’s enough said really. My question is about leadership, and in a way it’s not really a question, it’s the hope that you might have dealt with it before I asked, and I know Professor Sebba chose between two choices, to talk about quality rather than leadership, and so I’m afraid we might get to Mr Gibb without ever bringing it up as a question he should consider, because it is in the end now I think a politician’s problem. Michael Gove has dropped us a bundle of spillikins on the table with this academy programme, and down in Devon it’s a huge problem, its unsettling everybody, we’re taking it on all frightened of it, as we might be, and the local authority is not going to be able to cope with the problem and shows us they don’t really know what to do about it, so everyone’s on the back foot. Leadership is the core there, but in any case it’s a core problem, and Professor Sebba herself used the commercial expression of a school leader and I’m sure didn’t mean it as such, leadership is a very tricky, difficult thing, school management is usually what you get. I was in the services, so I know a system where leadership is terribly important, it’s getting people to do something they don’t want to do, and that’s the teachers. What I wonder is whether Michael Gove and Mr Gibb will find a way to project leadership right down to those teachers, through the rest of us, in order to wake them up to do what at the moment they don’t want to do. Nick Seddon: Okay, thank you, thank you. There was a question further, gentleman over there, and then we’ll take one more, the lady. David Daniels: Yes, good morning, David Daniels, Principal of the Petchey Academy in Hackney. I’m a bit puzzled by the emphasis on the word ‘teaching’ here, because five years ago when we planned and opened the new Academy, we determined that all our staff were going to be educators, not just as teaching staff. At the moment 95 per cent of my staff are in some way implicitly involved in the educational progress of children, we are One of the most effective predicting 86 per cent five A* to C, including people I employ is a man and maths who has done time at Her English next year, and I put Majesty’s pleasure and in that down to the fact dealing with some of our that the team work of more challenging children all the educators is part of that he has an amazing impact actually success rate. I’ll give on their motivation, their you one example, one self worth and so on. Not of the most effective people I employ is a to call him an educator who has done and to actually talk about man time at Her Majesty’s the quality of education pleasure and in dealing would be a total mistake with some of our more challenging children in my view. he has an amazing impact on their motivation, their self worth and so on. Not to call him an educator and to actually talk about the quality of education would be a total mistake in my view. Thank you. Nick Seddon: Thank you and the lady down here as well, third row. We’ve got about 10 minutes, so if we can keep the questions as short as possible, sorry. Irina Tyk: There was a perception this morning I felt of a chasm that exists between the state and the independent sector. I would just like to add a word of caution. Both, if you like, are beholden to Ofsted, to the education establishment, and one of the tragedies I think that has come through in the last however many years is the emphasis on child-centred education. Now it’s a lovely word, of course children matter, but what matters is the teacher in the classroom. Now we have had a suggestion of subject knowledge, subject knowledge is extremely important because it allows a teacher to improvise on the spot, so to speak, with a wider subject knowledge. Teachers have to be able to communicate, that is important. This all comes in something that has been lost, the art of whole class teaching. This is not in the schools because you have to tutor, you have to go on a one-to-one, and I think this is a tragedy. Lastly, accountability, a lot of the accountability stresses through Ofsted that we must do health and safety, that we are not doing something incorrect in the classroom, that we have to prove everything but the intellectual development of the child. So if I can just throw that in. Thank you very much. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much. So we have three questions here. One is that of leadership, one is the idea that educational progress is about more than just teachers, and the other is about the particular techniques of teaching, child-centred, and the accountability structures around them. John, would you like to start us off? John Holman: Could I just say something about leadership, it’s a very interesting and important question. I think often the question focuses almost exclusively on head teachers and their leadership teams, and I think there are important questions to be asked about governing bodies, particularly when we’re talking about the difficulties that are caused if the accountability systems aren’t right. Governing bodies are a very important part of holding schools to account, and I think we need some very clear thinking about the quality of governing bodies, their ability to hold schools to account, thinking about the quality of governing bodies that brings you to thoughts about particularly Chairs of Governors, they’re crucial, and have we simply got too many governing bodies, with so many primary schools each having a governing body? Can we have some wins about quality of governing bodies, their ability to hold schools to account and help the leaders to lead by thinking creatively about governing bodies? Maybe we should be paying Chairs for example. Nick Seddon: Thank you. Judy? Judy Sebba: Yes. Well thank you for the question about leadership. The reason I focused on quality of teaching was simply because of the nature of this particular session, but I certainly wouldn’t want to have given the impression I didn’t think the school leadership was important. Also, you’re quite right, I did slip into making it sound as if we were only talking about head teachers, and certainly that was not intentional. Interestingly we’ve seen, not many, but a few schools improve dramatically despite the head teacher rather than because of the head teacher. I have to say, I think the head teacher usually helps, but there are exceptions, there have been exceptions in some of the school improvement work I’ve been involved with in the past. The key thing we know now, and it’s only relatively recently, that we’ve been able to link pupil outcomes to the quality of school leadership successfully. There were many attempts to do this for many years, where people have been unable to demonstrate the relationship, and it’s only just beginning to be a bit better established. One thing we do know is that we need those school leaders to focus on teaching and learning issues, that’s quite problematic given the very large number of other problems and issues which they face. So I’ll leave it at that. Nick Seddon: Thank you, that’s great. Rod, do you want to pick up on any of this? Rod Bristow: Perhaps a couple of points. On the leadership point I wholeheartedly agree with the point about the school leaders being critically important, and just an example of it, relating it to my theme around technology, in London we have the London Grid For Learning, and the Chief Executive of the London Grid For Learning, Brian Durrant, who’s done an excellent job in encouraging schools in London to adopt these sort of communication and collaboration technologies, a lot of proactivity tools as well as learning technologies that Jim Knight was talking about. His focus in doing that, and www.reform.co.uk 81 Schools for the future / Reform he’s made huge progress, we’ve worked with him and he’s made much more progress than I thought he ever would I have to say, but the approach that he’s taken is very much one of focusing on school leadership and on the leaders and engaging the leaders of the schools in the technology, realising that if you just sort of put it out there and hope that the teachers will pick it up it will not happen, it does require leadership, it does require a sense of purpose in setting these objectives. So I think leadership is crucially important when it comes to technology, and, perhaps related to the leadership point, this issue of the gentleman who was talking about having a lot more, you know, 85 per cent educators or whatever, more people who are on the front line of doing the teaching if you like. I also think that’s very, very important, but I wonder if it also says that those people who perhaps aren’t every day on that front line in teaching, that they also, if there are fewer of them, in themselves they become much more important too. It’s much more important that the quality of the people that are in those roles is also upgraded, especially if there are fewer of them, it’s important the contribution they make is even more. I was thinking, within our own company, and its true for any company, we have a lot of data about how we’re doing on lots and lots of different measures, that data would never get picked up by the managers that need to pick it up in our organisation were it not for a very few people, very talented people who get to grips with it and understand how to interpret it for the managers in the company, these are really high quality people. Do we have enough high quality people in these kinds of roles in schools? Nick Seddon: Thank you. I’m slightly in two minds. We’ve got about two minutes left because we overran slightly. I just wonder whether or not we can take questions, if anybody can make quick-stab questions rather than statements, and then quick responses from each of the panel, that would be fantastic. Yes, gentleman here? Yes, here. Mark Dale-Emberton: Mark Dale-Emberton, Charlton School, special school, secondary. With the demise of local authorities school improvement teams in effect, how can we collectively, as a head teacher and others, support high quality teaching so that our high quality teachers that are already there can share their best practice with their colleagues? Those mechanisms are going to be extremely difficult for head teachers and their teams to manage, but clearly that’s a real big task upon us. Where do we purchase and procure the high quality support from? Who will they be? How much will it cost us if the local authorities are no longer there? Nick Seddon: Thank you.We’ve had a hand that’s stayed up over there? Daniel Cremin: Daniel Cremin, Bellenden. Do you see the concept of chain schools, of multi-area providers, being a good thing for CPD? Do you see there being innovative things we could do with their Continued Professional Development and subject knowledge as a result of having across large swathes of the country different schools operating over the similar ethos in a more 82 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform diverse curriculum? And, how can we get teachers in different parts of the country to meet and collaborate more effectively? Thanks. Nick Seddon: Thank you, and whoever puts up their hand fastest? There’s actually somebody at the back there. Sorry, I know this is very unfair. Catherine Holston: It’s a very quick question. Catherine Holston from One Plus One, my history is in research in education. I think what’s really important is to cut across all of the speakers and really try and understand how we’re defining education and what the role of the school is? So that’s just a quick question. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much. So we have three small statements. The question of the demise of local authorities and how mechanisms will be instituted to replace or support quality, how the chain schools might work and the role of Continuous Professional Development and what is education. In five seconds each. Rob, do you want to go first? Rod Bristow: Five seconds, okay. I’m going to link the first two, how do we get more access, better access to school improvement, and this issue of innovating in CPD collaboration. Perhaps they’re linked actually, you know, there is going to be a need for capturing the best, you know, the best practice if you like around the country, and I think that it’s a really big need, I think it’s a huge need. I think it is a need that will get bigger of course with the advent of more independent, if you like, free, schools. I can certainly say, as an organisation, we are thinking very hard about the role that we can play to help facilitate that, but I think it’s a huge issue. What is education? Well I’m going to give a personal, and its highly personal, view, it is about giving young people confidence to engage in society and make real progress in their lives, make a contribution, and it links into the employability agenda as well, and I think education is therefore much more than about just an academic learning, it also includes this idea of skills and employability, and we must make sure that our education system embraces both of those ideas going forwards. John Holman: Well I’ll duck the third question and join the first two together, because they are very linked. One is that it’s about support and professional development, and those are essentially the same Governing bodies are a very thing. I think we can do more for less where important part of holding schools to account, and I professional development is think we need some very concerned, schools are clear thinking about the already often in some quality of governing bodies places working extremely well together, you need to have more of that, schools supporting each other in professional development. But we’ve got to remember that it’s possible to share bad practice as well as good practice, so you do need to have, in some sense, a kind of external validation and the feeding in of external expertise. So we can’t do without, for example, science learning centres, support specialists, we can probably do more though with less of them, and I think we’re going to have to. Judy Sebba: I’ll just make a quick comment about mainly the first one, it links to the second one, and that is that I think your particular challenge as a special school is that local authorities have been good about trying to bring together special schools who are sometimes quite isolated because there isn’t another one like them nearby, and so that’s a particular challenge. More broadly, local authorities have worked hard to bring schools together in different ways, and what I think we mustn’t lose out of this, what other people have talked about in terms of getting schools to help each other on CPD, is the challenge aspect. The problem, as you said, John, I think, is that you can be regurgitating less effective practice, you do need an external challenge there. I don’t see that actually that necessarily requires again more money, it’s about a different use of expenditure. Thank you all very, very much. So we’ve heard quite clearly I think today that teaching quality is axiomatic, about the importance of subject knowledge for teachers, but also that teachers need to be very well managed and that the leadership in schools and perhaps more generally locally is important. We’ve also heard something about the importance of accountability, whether that be the use of information or of pupil feedback and evaluation, and the importance of accessible evidence has come through as a theme and much of what’s been said, and also the importance of tools to support, that while teaching is absolutely important, teachers can be aided with good support. And finally we also did quite well to get a good stab at what education is, and I was very glad to hear from John that we can do more for less. Thank you very, very much indeed. Please can we thank all the speakers in the usual way. Keynote speech by Nick Gibb MP Andrew Haldenby: We are absolutely thrilled that you are able to join us. I was reflecting on this idea of the hundred days, the first hundred days of the government, and I just cannot imagine your in-tray and the demands on you and the demands on your time. So for you to even give up an hour, including travel time, to come to this event is really extremely good of you and I think we have got a good and lively audience to give you some ideas. Just let me summarise where we have got today, because I said I would. In our first session we heard from particularly a school system which in some ways is crying out for relief. Somehow good ideas about accountability have gone wrong and have led to something going on in schools whether it is teaching the wrong kind of curriculum or trying to improve your results by getting kids from the better estate down the road rather than the worst estates. This isn’t education and something has been lost sight of. So that was the first session and much more positively in that session there was a great focus on teaching and obviously while there is support for things like Teach First and ways of getting new people into the profession, there is a strong feeling that what this is about is improving the quality of the existing workforce and there is a huge amount that can be done, particularly around subject teaching and CPD, around that, which could make a difference. So I just wanted to feed that back to you before your words and then let me just introduce Nick and then I think you are going to take some questions afterwards which is great. As you know Nick Gibb is the Minister of State for Schools, has been an MP since 1997 and has held the education brief for his party since 2005.Yesterday we had a similar conference on welfare policy where Iain Duncan Smith spoke and I said that it’s not often in politics that someone who has a passion for a job gets to do that job. Iain Duncan Smith is one of those people and actually of course, Nick, you are another one of those people so thank you very much indeed for joining us and we look forward to your words. Nick Gibb: Thank you very much Andrew. Going back to the previous session, to Professor Sebba, I’m not sure how many schools do improve despite their head teacher but I bet there are a lot of schools that improve despite education ministers! Andrew, can I just say thank you very much for that introduction and for giving me the opportunity to speak today. I greatly admire the work you and your colleagues do and in these difficult economic times that this government has inherited, Reform is, I believe, very well placed to have a real and lasting influence. Over the last decade, Reform has developed a deep understanding of the problems facing Britain’s public services and has brought together people of real experience from across the world to a I’m not sure how many schools do improve despite really practical agenda for reform and while their head teacher but I bet you have recognised there are a lot of schools that investment can be that improve despite their part of the solution, you have also argued education ministers! that reform of the way money is spent is just as important and sometimes more important as a driver of improvement. That insight is always important but it is particularly important in the current climate and the years ahead. You have also taken a serious and independent approach. Reform’s publications are based on firm research and you have worked with reform minded politicians from across the political spectrum and in education you have I believe rightly argued for the extension of choice as a driver for improved standards but have also recognised that there is a role that government has to play to ensure greater concentration on academic rigour and the passing on of core knowledge. So as I start work as the Minister responsible for driving through significant changes to help raise standards in schools, I know that Reform will be a friend but like the best friends, will never be afraid to tell us when you think we have got things wrong, or indeed where we can do things better. Like everything in the agreement that unites the Coalition Government, education policies are guided by the three principles of freedom, responsibility and www.reform.co.uk 83 Schools for the future / Reform fairness. We are going to give schools a greater freedom and parents more opportunity to choose good schools. We are going to place greater trust in professionals to give teachers more freedom to decide how to teach and we are going to reduce bureaucracy so that schools can get on with their core business. In just one year under the last government, the Department produced over 6,000 pages of guidance for schools, more than twice the length of the Complete Works of Shakespeare but much less illuminating and certainly less readable. We want to put an end to the reams of paperwork Britain’s school system and bureaucratic today is frankly unfair. burdens piled on to Too often provision is teachers and schools, denied in a lottery of not just the jargoneducation position where heavy instructions telling people how to do geography or parental their jobs but the income determines posters and DVDs that outcomes rather than gather dust in supply cupboards. academic ability or hard Outstanding schools work and the figures are will be freed from familiar but nonetheless inspection to refocus shocking for all their Ofsted’s resources on those schools that are repetition coasting or struggling and which are failing to deliver the best quality of education to their students. We agree with Reform that extending choice will improve quality. Academies introduced by the last government have been very successful in raising standards so we want to see many more. And the Academies Bill which is now going through the House of Lords will allow more schools to benefit from the freedoms of academy status including, for the first time, primary schools and indeed special schools. Academies are free from local authority control, they can deploy resources as they deem best and they have the ability to set their own pay and conditions for staff. They have greater freedoms over the curriculum and the length of terms and school days yet they operate within a broad framework of accountability which is designed to ensure that standards remain high and consistent. Already more than 1,700 schools have expressed an interest in becoming an academy and those schools that have been rated outstanding by Ofsted will have their applications fast-tracked so that some can become academies this September. We are making it much easier for parents, for teachers and for education providers to set up new schools so that there is real choice in every area. The second Coalition principle I mentioned is responsibility and everyone must take their share in the education system. The government has a responsibility to ensure high standards. Schools have a responsibility to promote an ethos of excellence and aspiration with opportunities for extra curricular activities and sport. And it is the responsibility of pupils and their parents to ensure that their behaviour at school is of a standard that delivers a safe and happy environment where children can concentrate and learn. We will support that by giving teachers and head teachers the powers they need to deal effectively with poor behaviour and we are working to ensure that teachers are protected from the professional and social humiliation of false accusations. But the Coalition 84 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform principle I want to concentrate on now is fairness. Britain’s school system today is frankly unfair, too often provision is denied in a lottery of education position where geography or parental income determines outcomes rather than academic ability or hard work and the figures are familiar but nonetheless shocking for all their repetition. The chances of a child who is eligible for free school meals getting five good GCSEs including English and Maths are less than one third for those of children from better off families. 42 per cent of pupils eligible for free school meals didn’t achieve a single GCSE above a Grade D in 2008 and in the last year for which we have data, more pupils from Eton went to Oxford or Cambridge than from the entire cohort of the 80,000 students eligible for free school meals. This is simply unacceptable and I don’t believe that less able children or those children from disadvantaged backgrounds are not capable of having an academic education or indeed that their parents necessarily hold lower ambitions for their children. I absolutely agree with Alan Milburn in his speech to the National Education Trust in March when he said, and I quote, “it is sometimes argued that parents in the most disadvantaged areas are less aspirational for their children in better off areas. The figures on school appeals repudiates such assumptions with a large number of parents from disadvantaged parts of the country using the appeal system to try to get their children out of poorly performing schools and in to better ones.” Alan Milburn is absolutely right, it is a natural instinct for parents to want the best for their children and to want better opportunities than they had themselves. Britain’s educational problems are not primarily the result of a lack of private aspiration; it is rather the state’s failure to provide enough good schools. It is socially unfair and economically damaging. As Reform has highlighted, England’s performance in international league tables is now amongst the worst of large developed economies. The Progress in Reading Literacy Study, PIRLS, of 10 year olds, marks England fourth and third out of 35 countries in 2001 to 15th out of 40 countries in 2006 and a PISA study shows that only two countries out of 57 have a wider gap in attainment between the lowest and highest achievers compared to England. Now I don’t cite these figures in order to attack the last government or to criticise the fantastic work that is done in our schools by teachers and pupils alike, rather this is an issue which highlights a fundamental ideological debate about education which runs much deeper than decisions of Ministers in the last few years. Indeed I pay tribute to the work done by Andrew Adonis and Jim Knight, who I saw running to make his maiden speech on the way in and tribute also to previous Conservative Secretaries of State such as Ken Baker and John Patten who tried to tackle some of the underlying causes of the problems we face. On one side of the ideological debate are those who believe that children should learn when they are ready through child-initiated activities and self discovery, what Plowden called “finding out.” It is an ideology that puts the emphasis on the processes of learning rather than on the content of knowledge that needs to be learnt. The American educational academic E.D. Hirsch traces this ideology back to the 1920s, to Teachers College Columbia in New York and the influence of educationalists such as John Dewey and William Heard Kilpatrick and added to that ideology is the notion that there is so much knowledge in the world that it is impossible to teach it all and very difficult to discern what should be selected to be taught in our schools. So instead, the argument goes, children should be taught how to learn.You hear educationalists extolling the virtues of the teacher as learning manager who must equip young people with the basic skill of learnacy, or learning to learn, and it can be summed up about an argument between knowledge versus the skill of learning. I believe very strongly that education is about the transfer of knowledge from one generation to the next. Knowledge is the basic building block for a successful life and without understanding the fundamental concepts of maths or science, it is impossible properly to comprehend huge areas of modern life. With little or no knowledge of our nation’s history, understanding the present is that much harder. Getting to grips with the basics of elements of metals, of halogens, of acids, of what happens when hydrogen and oxygen come together, of photosynthesis of cells, it is difficult but once learnt you have the ability, at least, to comprehend some of the great advances in genetics and physics and other scientific fields that are revolutionising our lives. Once these concepts are grasped, it opens up and develops the mind and takes you one step further to understanding the complex world in which we live. Each new concept facilitates deeper understanding and the ability to think more creatively and more independently about the way the world works and about society, so learning knowledge, acquiring knowledge and concept, that’s how you learn how to learn.Yet to more and more people Miss Haversham is a stranger and even the most basic history and geography are a mystery and these concepts must be taught and they must be taught to everyone and sadly this is not always the case. Professor Derek Matthews’ practice of quizzing his first year history undergraduates over a three year period shows depressing evidence of the state of teaching knowledge in history. Almost twice as many students thought that Nelson rather than Wellington was in charge at the Battle of Waterloo and nearly 90 per cent couldn’t name a single British Prime Minister from the 19th century – there were 20 including It is the duty of schools to Disraeli and Gladstone provide each child with and these were the knowledge and skills –students at a university requisite for academic where the entry requirement was an A progress, regardless of and two B’s at A-Level. home background Again, I don’t intend to criticise Professor Matthews students or indeed their teachers, these were bright young people who had worked hard and had achieved good exam results. What is to be criticised is an education system which has relegated the importance of knowledge in favour of ill defined learning skills. I want to spend the remaining few minutes just setting out the approach that the Coalition Government plans to take to put knowledge and subjects at the centre of curriculum. Professor David Conway in his fascinating paper Liberal Education and the National Curriculum, quotes Matthew Arnold’s view of the world and the purpose of education as introducing children to the best that has been thought and said. That must be the case for all children and not the privileged few in an education system that has fairness at its core. Children who come from a knowledge and education rich background start school with an in-built advantage over those who do not. If a school then fails to make up the knowledge deficit, these divisions widen still further. Leon Feinstein’s research has shown that low ability children from wealthy backgrounds often overtake and outperform more able children from poorer backgrounds by the age of five and that division, that gap continues to widen as those children go through school. E.D. Hirsch writes brilliantly about the importance of knowledge gained early on. He says, “just as it takes money to make money, it takes knowledge to make knowledge” and he goes on to say that those children “who possess the intellectual capital when they first arrive at school have the mental scaffolding and Velcro to gain still more knowledge but those children who arrive at school lacking the basic experience and vocabulary, they see not, neither do they understand.” Which is why he believes, as I do, that it is the duty of schools to provide each child with the knowledge and skills requisite for academic progress, regardless of home background. So we will introduce a pupil premium which will direct resources to children from disadvantaged backgrounds who need it most. Head teachers will then have the freedom to decide how best to use that money, whether to reduce class sizes, provide extra tuition or recruit the best teachers. But we need to sharpen our focus on the core process of teaching at every level, starting with the basics and in particular reading. A quarter of adults still have literacy problems but even after the literacy strategy in primary schools introduced in the late 90s, we still have nearly one in five 11 year olds leaving primary schools still struggling with reading. Again the ideologically driven child-centred approach to education has led to the belief that the mere exposure to books and text and the repetition of high frequency words will lead to a child learning to read, as if by osmosis – another scientific concept. That “look-and-say” or whole language approach ignores the importance of teaching children the 44 sounds of the alphabetic code and how to blend those sounds into words. Although phonics does play a part in how reading is taught, as Ofsted reported in their last annual report, and I quote, “weaknesses in the teaching of literacy remain and inspectors continue to report a lack of focus on basic literacy for low attainers” so we are determined to focus on making sure that reading is taught effectively in primary schools and we’ll say more on this in the coming months. It is because of that necessary focus on the basics and our belief in giving teachers more flexibility that we have decided not to proceed with the primary curriculum as recommended by Sir Jim Rose. Instead we want to restore the National Curriculum to its intended purpose, a core national entitlement organised around subject disciplines. So we will slim down the National Curriculum to ensure that pupils have the knowledge they need at each stage of their education and restore parity between our curriculum and qualifications and the best the world has to offer, www.reform.co.uk 85 Schools for the future / Reform whether that is Massachusetts, Singapore, Finland, Hong Kong, Alberta or wherever. We will reform league tables so that parents have the reassurance they need that their child is progressing and we must also restore confidence in our exam system. Pupils should be entered for qualifications that are in their best interests, not with a view to boosting schools performance in the league tables and we have opened up qualifications unfairly closed off to pupils in state maintained schools such as the IGCSE, to offer pupils greater choice and ensure that they are afforded the same opportunities as those who have the money to go to independent schools. Andrew, I have set out today an overview of how we intend to tackle some of the problems in our education system and how we intend to start to close the achievement gap between those from the richest and poorest in society and as you would expect from this Coalition Government, it is based on a conservative belief in a liberal education. E.D. Hirsch writes that “an early inequity in the distribution of intellectual capital may be the single most important source of avoidable injustice in a free society.” It is remedying that injustice that is the driving force behind this government’s educational reforms. Thank you very much Andrew. Andrew Haldenby: Thank you very much indeed. I am going to ask David Perks to repeat his point from earlier because I think it summed up so much and then let me just take a couple of questions. What you didn’t talk about, and what people have already raised, Minister, is free schools and I don’t know if people want to bring that up as well. David, if you just want to go. David Perks: David Perks, a teacher in South London. The point I was making earlier on was the idea that schools today are obsessed by their position in league tables. Which is driven by, if you like, the availability of qualifications on an equivalence basis so between GCSE and pseudo vocational qualifications and GCSEs of all different kinds. Therefore there is a massive pressure on schools to just get their place in league tables. The way this can be got rid of is to scrap the equivalencies between GCSEs and other qualifications that don’t really merit the same level of worth. Will that happen? Will you be able to do that because if you do there are two things about it. One, it will give a real incentive to schools to do what you have just said, which I wholly endorse, which is teach, educate young people to the best of our ability academically but there are a lot of schools which will suddenly collapse in their performance across the country because they have gone down the other route. Can you take that hit, that’s the question really? I really hope that you can stand up now and do that and that we can get an answer from you. Sarah Ebner: Hi, Sarah Ebner from The Times. Too many things for me to mention so I’m going to pick one. At the leadership debate originally with the three party leaders there was a student who asked a question and got lots of publicity for it, and said students are over examined and under taught. He was in the sixth form, because I’ve spoken to him since, and he was saying something that comes up a lot, that because of AS-levels, children, pupils and students, don’t have the time when they are 86 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform doing their A-levels to really get into a subject, they don’t get deep subject knowledge. They have to go from one exam at GCSEs to AS-levels and they start university and it affects their expertise when they start there. No one seems to know why this change really happened, no one seems to be in favour of it and I think it would really make a difference to learning and to student experience at school if they went back to having one year without exams where they could really get into their three or four A-levels and enjoy that and then move on and have better expertise. John Holland: John Holland, I work for Tribal. I don’t know if we have to wait until day 75 but I’d be extremely interested to know what subjects you would define in the core curriculum. Would it include a modern foreign language for example? I think many people would recognise that vocational qualifications have a place as well in motivating and engaging young people and I wondered how you see the role of vocational qualifications, albeit not as a replacement in the way my colleague mentioned previously. Nick Gibb: All good questions. David Perks, can we take the hit? Well absolutely. I’m not interested in saying things have gone up by X per cent and Y per cent if the reality beneath that is that standards are not improving and I’m always very influenced by what Professor Tymms at Durham University and the research he has done over the last ten years or so about standards in schools. We want to have honesty in data and we want to have lots of data out there. One of the things we are committed to doing is getting on to the website all the data that is kept back at the Department, it should be available for people to look at, for parents in particular to see which school is the best for physics, so one school may be best for their child or another school may be best for physics, but in terms of equivalencies, that is something that we are going to reform – the league tables, absolutely. And we want to do in that reform process is to remove perverse incentives, to do things that are not in the interests of children. Children should not be entered for exams that are not in their interests, whether that is a vocational exam or an academic qualification, it should be what is in the pupil’s interests and never what’s in the interests of boosting the school in the league table. So we are going to look at league tables, again look for the outcome of that but we are certainly looking at that and the point you make is very well taken. In terms of the modular AS and A2 exams, again the answer is the same as that one. We are looking at qualifications – this is what happens when you ask questions on day 50 – but what we have said is that we want the qualifications to be on a par with the best that the world has to offer so we are going to look to see what the best qualifications are and when we look at the curriculum we are going to look at what children are learning and at what age in the best jurisdictions throughout the world, to make sure we are on a par with that. The issue of vocational qualifications, modern languages yes are very important and it is of concern that the numbers taking GCSEs in modern languages have fallen so dramatically just since 2004 and it is a very worrying sign. In terms of vocational qualifications, yes, they are very important and many children benefit from those qualifications. We have to ensure they are of a high quality and again we need to ensure that the data is available so if a parent is choosing a school they need to know which schools get the best results in certain vocational qualifications, the ones they’re interested in and that’s why putting the data out there is so important. Greg Rosen: Greg Rosen, consultant director at Reform. A quick how question.You said you were keen to reduce the burden of central direction on teachers and you outlined that. At the same time you said you were keen to encourage teachers to move away from what you called the Dewey inspired teaching methods on which you were less keen. I just wondered how you proposed to do the two things at the same time? Robert Moreland: Robert Moreland, I am chairman of a boys’ secondary Church of England comprehensive just across the river by Kennington Oval called Archbishop Tennison’s and the question I want to ask which in a way comes from what Professor Holman said before is really what you intend to do about Ofsted and its criteria? My question is quite simply that I am very conscious in all the work we have had to do on the school evaluation form, that we are spending hours and hours on safeguarding community cohesion and indeed you don’t get your top mark if any of those go below it etc, etc, oh and down at the bottom, pupil progress. I Isn’t there something that wonder if, dare I say it, we need to do to up the we do all these things, attention given to pupil we’re desperately keen progress on safeguarding, we’re desperately keen on community cohesion and I’m spending my time visiting community groups but my real point is, isn’t there something that we need to do to up the attention given to pupil progress? Andrew Haldenby: Very good, this is the last point and you have been very generous with your time but Camilla Cavendish wanted me to ask you about free schools and this is a slightly technical point but it is an interesting one, is it true that parent groups have to lead them? Anyway I’ll pass those on to you and then we’ll go for lunch. Terry De Quincy: Hi, Terry de Quincy, head of a primary school in Southwark. I’d just like to ask at the bottom end of the spectrum to follow on from the gentleman who just spoke about Ofsted and their judgements in early years in particular. We are an outstanding school and it is quite alarming that very recently my staff were told that they are teaching five year olds too much and if you haven’t got an 80 per cent child free play 20 per cent direct teaching ratio then you are actually only satisfactory in that area of the school. Could you please look at that? Julian Stanley: Julian Stanley, I am chief executive of the Teacher Support Network and did have the opportunity to speak to Nick prior to the election but I am just interested in your plans and proposals for improving parent teacher relations really because there’s a triangle here between parents, teachers and pupils. It is an important dialogue between the three, so what are your thoughts are on how to improve those relations? There have been lots of different initiatives tried, I’m interested in that. Also the fact that sickness absence amongst teachers is one of the highest of all professions and so it is interesting to know that there is something like £248 million I think spent on sickness absence. What do you think could be done to improve health and well-being for teachers as we try and improve their status and shift perceptions particularly in the media of teachers? Thank you. Nick Gibb: Okay, first on the Ofsted criteria, Robert Moreland’s question. We are going to reduce the number of criteria from eighteen to four so the four will be leadership, teaching, attainment, behaviour and safety and there will be no limiting judgements, so the whole concept of limiting judgements will go. However if a school is performing very badly attainment wise it would be difficult to become an outstanding school but that’s the key principle behind our reforms to Ofsted. On the issue about early years and Ofsted inspectors who require a play based approach, based on the EarlyYears Foundation Stage, we are going to look at these issues in more detail in due course. But this issue does highlight the necessity for a debate.What I am keen to do is for these issues to be debated in public, in the open.These debates about child- initiated, child-centred learning, that ideology, versus a practical evidence based approach which has been shown to work, I think we should have that debate in public and it should not be a debate that just takes place behind closed doors amongst educationalists who all share the same outlook. I am very keen to have that debate. Also at the end of the day we want choice in schools so there will be [inaudible word] in our choice agenda.There will be schools that undertake that ideology and if parents want that form of school they should be able to choose it and if they don’t, if they want a more traditional approach, well there should be schools available for them to take that view as well which partially answers one of the other questions. The issue about parent teacher relationships, it is important that schools do engage with parents and the community and even though we are moving towards Academy autonomy from local authorities, that does not mean we expect these schools to be islands unto themselves. They won’t flourish, the schools, unless they engage with the community and have an active dialogue with parents and I think that will increase as new schools enter the internal market and want to attract pupils. In terms of stress levels, first of all we want to raise the professional status of teachers, that’s one of our driving ambitions but also a lot of stress is driven by poor behaviour and so one of our key priorities is raising standards of behaviour in our schools and again I hope we will have something to say on that fairly soon. Reducing burdens, yes, I partially answered that question I think but again it is about a debate, it is not going to be the anti John Dewey act as our third piece of legislation, it’s not. There is a place for progressive if you www.reform.co.uk 87 Schools for the future / Reform like, so called progressive education and more traditional education in our system but I think there should be a debate about it. Reducing burdens is a separate point, we are spending a lot of time at the moment going through and finding out what is necessary and what isn’t necessary and in terms of free schools, do they have to be led by parents? No, that’s just an example and an example of which there are many examples. There are parents out there who want to set up free schools but any group, parent groups, teacher groups, education foundations, philanthropic groups, can set up schools and I hope very much that they will. Andrew Haldenby: Thank you. I suspect we could go on and on but I am going to respect the Minister’s diary and end it there. Just to say, we will be transcribing this debate and … Nick Gibb: Oh now you say that! [Laughter] Andrew Haldenby: … we will send you all the proceedings of today so none of this will be lost. It was wonderful for us to get a sense of two things really. One is the priority that you are setting. This, just as you are beginning this journey and the debate you want to have and the fact that you have asked us to help with these debates which I am sure people will respond to. But also as David Perks said, what is also clear is your own personal commitment to education and to the value of education and for that reason, if nothing else, we wish you extremely well. Thank you. Raising the bar Dale Bassett: Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, welcome back. I hope you are all feeling suitably refreshed after lunch and fired up for some more vigorous debate this afternoon, of which I think we will have plenty for you. I am Dale Bassett, I’m a senior researcher, and I lead on the education policy work at Reform. I have a distinguished group of people with me who are going to discuss the subject of “Raising the Bar.” Quite useful I think having Nick Gibb’s speech immediately prior to this session. I think he has probably given us a lot of food for thought and a lot of what he talked about is going to feed directly into issues that we are going to discuss now. Just a couple of things that the Minister said. He talked about the importance of fairness, and described the lottery of educational provision that exists at the moment. He talked about the distinction between what to learn and how to learn, or the other way he put it was knowledge versus the skill of learning. He said you learn how to learn by acquiring knowledge and concept and said that the current system has, “relegated the importance of knowledge in favour of ill defined learning skills.” While I’m sure that is not the only ground that we are going to cover, I can imagine it is some of it. Let me briefly introduce the panel. Sitting immediately to my right is Amanda Spielman, who is Research and Development Director of ARK Schools, a charitable academies operator. She is also responsible 88 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform for strategic, legal, governance and regulatory matters there, and since being there in the very early days of ARK it has grown from two to over a thousand employees. She is also a director of the New Schools Network, recently set up as we know to help groups of parents (and not just parents as we heard this morning); to set up new free schools. She was also a member of Sir Richard Sykes’ review into qualifications that was set up by the Conservatives before the election. To her right is Ros McMullen, who is principal of the David Young Community Academy in Seacroft in Leeds. She was a head teacher in Wigan prior to that, where she turned round a school that was the 15th worst performing in the country into one of the most improved. In 2005 she became principal of the David Young Community Academy, where she spent five terms preparing for the opening in September 2006. I’m not going to give you all the facts and figures of the results that they have achieved there. Suffice to say that they are impressive, and having been and seen the school myself, the school as a whole is impressive. I have to say that in the two years I have been doing this job, the day I spent at the David Young Community Academy is the single day that has had by far the biggest impact on me. Ros and her team have done some wonderful things there. To my left is Deborah Eyre, who is a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at Oxford. She is internationally recognised for her work on gifted education and school reform. Working internationally, she was Director of the government’s National Academy for Gifted and Talented Youth and she as a consultant has clients including the King of Saudi Arabia and many other international clients. Finally, last but not least, to her left, Simon Lebus, who is the Group Chief Executive of Cambridge Assessment, a position that he has held since 2002. He is a fellow of Emmanuel College and spent his career “operating in complex and competitive business environments and driving for excellence, quality, good teamwork and continuous improvement.” Prior to that, he worked in a variety of senior management roles. Over to the panel I think, and speaking first is Amanda. Amanda Spielman: I’d like to apologise for the horrible croak. I wouldn’t croak if I could help it! First of all, as Dale said, I work for ARK. We are Academy operators and we have a particularly aspirational academy model. Our aim is to have everybody who goes through one of our schools leave school equipped for higher education, and obviously by equipped we don’t just mean UCAS points – we mean the intellectual development, the aspiration, the interpersonal, the study, the other skills as well as the qualifications. Unsurprisingly I start with a clear preference for being as academic and as aspirational for as many pupils as possible. I’ll tell you a little story from one of our transition schools. Many of our academies are transition schools, and one of the things about taking on a school is that you spend your first two years teaching GCSE courses that have been chosen by pupils under the previous regime, and this really came home to me. I was interviewing some of the brightest pupils in a couple of our transition schools to be given scholarships to go on a wonderful summer programme at Phillips Exeter Academy. First of all I was very surprised, because on the CVs of people who were saying they wanted to be doctors, study engineering at Oxford, things like that, all of them were doing at least one IT qualification, at least one business studies and usually three or four GCSEs worth was going in to quasi academic qualifications or vocational qualifications, and these were the very top pupils in the schools. I asked them about their choices and almost none of them had ever had it suggested to them that, as the most academic pupils in the school, they might consider doing two humanities or doing a GCSE in a language. It came as a surprise. One girl, when I asked her about this, said rather sadly “they told us it was worth four GCSEs and now I realise it wasn’t.” It brought it home – this poor girl was now wanting to embark on A-levels for medical school and with the thinnest base of academic GCSEs with which to try and get to A levels. And it’s not just us. Tristram Hunt and Anastasia De Waal are knocking academies right, left and centre at the moment, but actually it’s a problem in many schools that it is only a minority that are following an academic path and many, many children are being prematurely being steered towards vocational and quasi vocational qualifications. It is a particular problem in schools that have got a disproportionately low priority for entry. Anybody who wants to look at that only has to look at something like the London Challenge data set, which I think you can still get off the Department for Education website, which gives school entries for every subject. Does it matter? Some people argue it doesn’t matter, that there’s lots of motivation and engagement for children and it is all a good thing. We actually think it matters a lot, because the intellectual development is not the same in every qualification and most, not all but most vocational qualifications actually add very little to pupils’ intellectual development. They are limiting those individuals’ horizons unless they happen to be directly relevant to the career path that that individual Many, many children are wants to follow. So they being prematurely being are not a preparation steered towards vocational for further study in and quasi vocational most cases and in some instances they are not qualifications useful even for a particular career path. Alison Wolf’s work on GNVQs was very interesting on that front. So at ARK we see an extremely limited role for vocational qualifications for almost any pupils at age 14. It is important to understand in all this that first of all pupils are being rational. Most 13 year olds will default to what seems easiest in the absence of either some very strong intrinsic motivation that only a few of them have or parent pressure or school pressure. The girl I spoke to had strong intrinsic motivation, but the poor girl misguidedly thought that the more GCSEs the better, and therefore had made some very bad choices. Schools are also being rational. Accountability measures don’t work very well. CVA and average point score, which count for a lot, both do not differentiate between the intellectual demands of the qualifications that are included in them. A fascinating illustration for me of how much actually rides on CVA and average point score is the recently published SSAT value added work. They publish a non contextual value added indicator for all schools, and I looked at the very worst schools, the schools where the proportion of schools with pupils getting five plus including English and maths was at least 15 per cent lower than you would predict off those pupils attainment at key stage two, and I found about half of them were on notice to improve or special measures or already closed or closing, but the other half really stuck out. They were actually very little different from the ones in special measures, except nearly all of them were brilliant to playing the equivalence game and, notwithstanding a miserable result on the five including English and maths, had managed to keep their CVA up in the normal range. I don’t think that’s a good place for schools to be in, to have a very strong incentive to steer pupils to what are essentially the cheapest qualifications, irrespective of whether they are really right for those pupils. We do what we can. We have some quite strong policies in our schools to try and establish academic paths as the default, and that students should be advised carefully before moving off them, and as much good information brought to bear before people make career limiting choices. But we only have a slice of the schools bandwidth – Ofsted has a very strong share of schools ear and in some respects what we say almost seems to disappear into the wind because schools are so tuned in to pleasing Ofsted. We think that for changes to truly to flow through, for users of qualifications, for employers and for universities to be much more open and honest about what they value, so that the qualifications that are really and truly less valuable wither and die. I recently gave our IT director a list of all the IT qualifications commonly entered for at school and said which did he think were important, which would they look at on a CV and value on a CV for somebody apply at 18 or 21 and there was only one that he thought was of any value, but nobody says that. So I am interested in transparency in education and honesty with pupils so that children get to make the choices that they ought to be making. Thank you. Ros McMullen: A little bit about the journey I think would probably be relevant, and then about the philosophy that I’ve used around qualifications and what I think about at the moment. I actually think that qualifications are fairly irrelevant to education to be honest with you, and I don’t care what hoops they give me. I’ll get through the hoops but that’s an irrelevancy. I’ll educate the kids at the same time because they will change the hoops, because the hoops unfortunately are determined by people who have some kind of political standpoint and want to decide on one thing or another, where I’m interested really in getting kids engaged and intelligent. I would like to say right at the beginning that I don’t believe that knowledge transfer is what education is about at all. I believe that interacting intelligently with that knowledge is what education is about and unfortunately if we think that just transferring of knowledge on to people, one generation transferring their knowledge on to the next generation, we are regarding the whole of humanity as nothing more than a rather complex computer system when actually the whole thing about us is that we are intelligent. It seems to me that people who are entrepreneurial and intelligent and wealth-makers are what our society, what our world needs. God knows we need our next www.reform.co.uk 89 Schools for the future / Reform generation to be real problem solvers and I don’t actually think that making sure they know the entire canon of Dickens or the rivers of the world is going to assist us with that. However, well I’ll come on to other things and there is so much I want to say about this really. Let me tell you a little bit about my children and about my school. My predecessor school had a huge amount of intervention taking place with it. The larger of my two predecessor schools had 10 per cent of children achieving 5 A to C including English and Maths, 21 per cent without and had attendance of 83 per cent, which I’ll tell you was a great work of fiction, it was more like 60. By the way, my deprivation indices have worsened since the Academy started, not got better, 40 per cent of my students are in the bottom 3 per cent on the index of multiple deprivation, 60 per cent are in the bottom 5 per cent and 87 per cent are in the bottom 10 per cent. It is the most deprived school in Leeds and that’s going it some. So what are they doing now? Well 94 per cent will have 5 grade A to C this summer and I am hoping 40 per cent will have it including English and Maths which will be a huge amount with value added. More importantly, attendance is at 90 per cent and actually this academic year, because our academic year starts in June, this academic year it is actually running at 94 per cent. We have played a lot of the equivalence game in raising 5 A* to C from 20 per cent to 94 per cent – a huge amount – and I think the equivalence does need to be looked at, but actually we wouldn’t have got it from 10 per cent to 40 per cent without having played some of the equivalence game as a motivator for young people, and I think that’s important. I do think however, that the thing about curriculum and the thing about teaching is that those are the important thing, the qualifications aren’t, and what you do is you do what’s right for where your community is at that time and you keep it under constant review. And yes, you do have to jump through the hoops. Perhaps some of the softer indicators at my place is that all my children want to go to university and every year – I’ve only been there four years – my first sixth form had eight students in it, they all went to university, and they were all the first people I don’t think the choice is in their family to go to between academic and university. Now you vocational actually at all could be cynical and and I think what you do is you could say they got to university on you educate the children and you get your curriculum equivalence, they got BTEC Level 3 right and then you find equivalence but do you what hoop it is and know what, those qualification it is that most children would have been in jail, not suits it university. They were the first people in their family to ever go to university, and I’ll tell you about sixth form now – sixth form now has got 150 kids and they all want to go to university. But it was our first new intake parents evening this year when nobody came drunk or picked a fight with us, you know? It was our first options evening for prep year, which is what we call year eight and I’ll tell you about that in a minute, which was packed to the rafters with parents all of whom wanted their children to 90 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform go to university. Now these things are important and it is how you get that aspiration that’s important. I don’t think the choice is between academic and vocational actually at all and I think what you do is you educate the children and you get your curriculum right and then you find what hoop it is and qualification it is that most suits it. We have really embraced Diplomas and we have embraced Diplomas because we want to get rid of BTech actually. We think teaching the kids is fine and it’s great to get them these BTECs and whatever, but actually we don’t think it really holds any value in itself. We have embraced Diplomas because actually when we are working with industry and with university admissions departments, we have discovered that some of these Diplomas are absolutely fantastic. So right at the start I absolutely refused to talk about Hair and Beauty, I refused to have Hair and Beauty BTEC anywhere near. What is the point of saying to any underclass girl, you’ll be interested in Hair and Beauty as an excuse not to educate them? To reinforce that sort of stuff just goes against the grain, we wouldn’t engage with Hair and Beauty Diplomas or any nonsense like that but with the engineering Diploma, construction and the built environment Diploma. I had seven students go on to study architecture at Lincoln this year as undergraduates, and we are working very hard with employers. Local authority collaboratives are a load of rubbish when it comes to Diplomas. What works with diplomas is working with local employers and university admissions departments, and picking the diplomas and getting the curriculum right for the young people. But we are also interested and have engaged in the International Baccalaureate next year. The reason why we have engaged in that is actually because the whole A level thing to me – what a joke. I am really feeling very strongly about this at the moment and, the way we arrange our curriculum perhaps would be helpful. Our academic year starts in June and it finishes in May. The reason why it starts in June is because we all know what happens in primary schools after Key Stage 2 SATS and until the summer holidays. It’s great and my children have really benefited from that and have loved it because my children spend the summer holidays in Florence with me around art galleries and all the rest of it and they get a lot of stimulation at home. But the children I teach, the children I serve do not get taken to Tuscany in the summer, they don’t have any books in their houses and actually all the enrichment activities that take place and all the lack of academic pushing after Key Stage 2 SATS to summer just serves to push them back further and they are one year behind by the time they’re three. I am not going to afford any more time. We don’t have a six week summer holiday, we have a four week summer holiday so by the time everybody else starts in Year 7, mine have already had a good ten weeks of secondary education. We also don’t mess about with all these bell changes and off you move to another lesson business. We have one lesson in the morning, we have another lesson in the afternoon, we don’t waste time. We get them involved in deep learning. We call them freshers when they start, they then move the following June to what we call the prep year and then the following year they move to senior education, senior one, senior two and senior three. At the end of senior two they jump through whatever hoops the government have put at us, and then we start in senior three, which is the last year of compulsory education, we start teaching them – have I got time? Well I am going to finish with an anecdote. The senior three class, the most academic students – and when we are talking about the most academic students in my context we are talking about students whose prior attainment before they came to us is very, very low. We have nobody whose parents went in to higher education, we are talking about the deprivation issues I’ve told you about, but we have identified these kids. I think I’ve got 28 of them and I actually teach them on Monday afternoons and I’m teaching them politics, philosophy and economics and I thought a good start would be if I got hold of the A level syllabus around politics. What a load of rubbish! I was absolutely and utterly appalled and I thought right, I’m just going to have to teach these kids to think. Now these children may not have A* on their GCSEs, and I don’t actually care because those GCSE syllabuses, don’t think GCSEs are the Holy Grail when it comes to the academic. These kids have got to jump through that hoop, fine, let’s get them through it but actually if they get Bs at the end of senior two, great, we’ve got that, it’s in the bank, let’s educate you. They are doing Maths, they’re doing English, they’re doing politics, philosophy and economics with me but what I said to these children was okay, we had a really good lesson on Monday afternoon, and I said to them right, I want you to write me 500 words on why the coalition government is under stress and can you email it to me. I had emailed to me, they are interacting with knowledge. I gave them some knowledge about how we arrived at a coalition government, what it means, all of that kind of stuff, we did that discussion in class but actually these kids need to think, they need to be able to be directed down to the political commentators of our time, to interact with the knowledge they got from me and to think intelligently and I am getting in some stuff that’s great. These kids may only have a B at GCSE but I don’t care. I am preparing them to think, and when they go in to sixth form that is what the International Baccalaureate course will do with these children. My aim is I am going to get these kids from the worst estate in Leeds in to Oxbridge, and whatever hoops I have to jump through, I’ll do it, but don’t think that you can just think GCSEs are marvellous and A Levels are marvellous. Load of rubbish, they’re not. Dale Bassett: Ros, thank you very much and if at all possible in five minutes so we have time for questions, here’s Deborah Eyre. Deborah Eyre: Thank you. I suppose in the piece I am going to talk about in my five minutes, I guess I want to start by saying I am really interested in high performing education systems, so I am interested in high performing education systems as measured by high performing students. My starting position is I think a lot of people could be high performing students, and if after 150 years of education we are not any better at it now than we were when we started then there is something radically wrong. So the fact that is our education as good now as it was? I don’t think that’s the question. Is our education moving slightly forward and improving? That’s not the question. We’ve been at it for a long time, if we don’t know how to teach and we don’t know how to help children learn better there is something very wrong with the system. So I was interested in going and having a closer look at some of the systems which seem to work and find out more about them, and also I am interested in working with countries that are keen to make high performance the focus of their educational work. So I guess what I want to start by saying is that there are certain characteristics about countries that seem to be doing well in all these league tables, the PIRLS and the TIMSS and all the others and it is quite interesting in the light of some of the discussions we have heard today. One is very much in line with what we have been talking about in terms of high expectations for all but it really means it. It doesn’t mean just a bit better than you did before. It doesn’t just mean going to university, it means going to a good university, a university that offers really high standards of qualifications, and I am going to come back to that. The second is that they avoid polarisation, they avoid the idea that this is right and this is wrong, phonics good, look and say wrong. Phonics works for some, look and say works for others, find the right way. What you want is the outcome. Try one method, if it doesn’t work try another. They learn from others, not just sharing best practice, which I’m not sure I understand what that is. They learn from others all over the place. Why am I working with them? Because they have reached out halfway across the world to someone who knows something about something they want to develop and they get them in. How often do we see that in this country, where we’re learning from other countries? We’re sending out people all over the world, we’re not really learning from others in that kind of way. They’re pragmatic, they realise that some things will work in some circumstances and not in others, and they focus relentlessly on getting high levels of performance for as many as possible. They don’t, for example, have a polarised debate about whether traditional subject knowledge is the key to the future or whether skills and processes are going to replace all knowledge, or indeed whether practical work related activity is going to be the panacea. They recognise – and it seems to me absolute common sense – that all three of those have a part to play in education, so the basis of having high aspirational academic qualifications is a good thing for all, but it would be ludicrous to suggest, as was suggested in my view earlier this morning, that creativity and collaboration was not a part of high academic performance. How do you get to high academic performance if you don’t have some creative ideas? Do you really do it in a shed at the bottom of the garden on your own? Not in this day and age. It’s a polarisation which is truly unhelpful. Why am I working in a place like Hong Kong at the moment which is scoring really highly on all these things? Because they have got brilliant subject knowledge, but their schools aren’t very good at helping know how to use it, use it practically in a work related environment. So they have identified the problem, they are trying to solve it. It’s a kind of pragmatic view. I think we are held back in this country in a number of different kinds of ways. We tend to focus on the detail. We focus on have we got the qualifications www.reform.co.uk 91 Schools for the future / Reform right. Perhaps now but really it seems to me that one of the things that holds us back most is this question that only a small minority of people are capable of doing well. It is fundamentally embedded in our whole view, and we spend an inordinate amount of time trying to work out which people are going to go in which direction because ultimately we genuinely believe that only a few of them can be really successful, unlike many other countries where they start with the much more optimistic assumption which is to say that with this new generation of young children coming through, better fed, better educated, better supported than in many other generations, we should be able to do better. Now I am not being hopelessly idealistic here and suggesting that every child is better fed, better educated, better supported – it’s all relative. Some of my family come from Seacroft, I know it very well and I think in relative terms the people who live in Seacroft now are better off than the people who lived in Seacroft thirty years ago, fifty years ago. Ros McMullen: Is that right? Deborah Eyre: It certainly is. So the question of can we be more optimistic on behalf of our children is really part of the proposition that I want to look at. Why do we not really think that this is possible? I think we kind of take the view in this country that we can presume about a child’s educational destiny pretty much more or less determined at birth by looking at a combination of their genetics and their family background. I am going to put the proposition that that is a very early 20th century idea. Firstly, genetics. In the world of psychology it is no longer about finite ability – it is about predispositions.You inherit the capacity to maybe develop, but many of I think we kind of take the us may not develop all those predispositions, view in this country that but the idea that we are we can presume about a all born with a set of child’s educational destiny abilities and that is as much as you can do is pretty much more or less out. I was explaining to determined at birth by parents in Dubai very looking at a combination recently that I was 12th of their genetics and their in my class at school, and I thought I could family background only get to be 11th if somebody left. I tried to fathom it out in a bored moment, what would I have to do and somebody would have to leave. Somebody asked a question in the group and said well if you were 12th in your class, how did you get to where you are now? I said, how do you get to Carnegie Hall? Practice. And that is a serious view which is that it takes hard work. First of all, we know more people have the predisposition to achieve and we have got to get out of the idea of saying “these are the good ones and these are the bad ones, these ones will never make it.” We don’t know. We don’t know until we give them high quality opportunities and that’s what many of these case studies are doing. So with the family, the family is not in a steady state. A Chinese colleague of mine said “I don’t know 92 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform why you think about families all the time when you are in the UK and education, you’re obsessed with it.” She said “I was brought up during the cultural revolution, my father was an academic, we got moved to the north west of China, he was We have got to get out of working down the coal mines, I had a very the idea of saying “these strange upbringing are the good ones and where there was no these are the bad ones, money but a lot of ideas these ones will never and after that I came back to Beijing and was make it.” We don’t know. in Tianenman Square We don’t know until we and then I thought I give them high quality might as well leave opportunities and that’s China and I went to Australia and then I what many of these case went to America and studies are doing now I’m in Hong Kong.” She said “what does that say about how my children are going to perform in school?” It’s a fast changing world, shift happens, Microsoft stuff. It is a fast changing world, so that means with our children, we shouldn’t be making all the judgements on what their families did. Finally self, the self person. We need to engender that self belief. If you are being told all the time that people who come from free school meals never go anywhere, if you are getting free school meals you think you don’t go there either. There are really serious issues about how children perceive themselves and think about themselves, so I’ll summarise by saying we need a change in thinking and a change of culture. Other countries don’t have a long tale of underachievement because they don’t expect it – they expect everybody is going to do well. We need to think about what that means so we can sell the benefits of education to children and parents, and that is exactly what Ros was talking about, it was mentioned this morning that there is no lack of private aspiration. We can pursue high performance relentlessly and focus on removing the barriers to achievement rather than thinking, “well I’m sorry, some people can’t do it.” Think about how to get over the barriers, don’t look back. We can learn from things that have happened before but it is a new world too and we can be more optimistic about what this generation can achieve. This morning on the way in I was reading The Times and I see that Terry Leahy of Tesco is telling Cameron today, forget village England, think global. If we don’t up the levels of achievement in our education system, believe me, the UK is falling further and further behind. Thank you. Simon Lebus: There has been a lot of knocking of qualifications today and I guess if I were to respond to all the particular allegations I would need rather more than five minutes. But Cambridge Assessment is part of the university, it owns the universities various exam boards which operate both in the UK as OCR supplying A Levels, GCSEs, diplomas among other qualifications and also internationally as Cambridge International Exams, we do IGCSEs, we do international A Levels and we also have a very large English language testing organisation so we do have a global perspective in approaching this, and I think one of the issues that’s interesting in terms of how qualifications can actually operate to raise the bar, to try and drive educational improvements is actually being realistic about what the nature of qualifications is. I fully agree with Ros’s comment earlier that it is perfectly possible to be educated without taking a single qualification – indeed for much of human history that is precisely what happened – but nonetheless it is a case that qualifications have a role to play. They have a value and they can help drive improvements. Coming back to some of the things we were hearing from the Minister this morning. He talks about trusting the professionals, about reducing bureaucracy and extending choice, and I think that is sort of the manifesto we would like to see for qualifications. There has been a lot of discussion and debate about what qualifications ought to be available within the school sector: should IGCSEs be permitted in the maintained sector, how do you balance the different needs between A Levels and diplomas, what’s the role of the IB and we’ve introduced a new qualification, the Pre-U. There is a lot of discussion about whether it is going to lead to an apartheid of qualifications, is there a nuclear arms race between qualifications, but the central point I would want to make is that as all of our speakers have been suggesting in various different ways, we have a very diverse population. Humanity comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes, pupils come in all sorts of shapes and sizes and trying to put them through a single door, trying to put them down a single track is not an appropriate thing to do. What we ought to be doing is offering a diverse range of different routes, a diverse range of different qualifications, and I think we need to create a system that encourages that. There has been a lot of talk today about the whole regime of equivalencies, and I would make the point that I believe equivalencies are quite damaging actually, do lead to perverse choices. I take Ros’s point that they can also create useful incentives, but I think perhaps what is not so well appreciated is that in order to create those equivalencies there is a whole regulatory apparatus to do with qualifications, criteria, volume of guided learning hours and so on and so forth. That creates real distortions in terms of the qualifications that we can put together, the sorts of learning experience that we can support with our qualifications, so I think that is something that needs to come under a very significant degree of scrutiny. I think part of that is also about thinking seriously about the regulatory regime we want. There was a lot of activity to set up Ofqual as an independent regulator, and I am thoroughly supportive of the concept of an independent regulator, but I think one’s got to say “what are we actually looking for?” Alison Wolf used the concept of a weights and measures type role. I think there is a place for a weights and measures type role for a qualifications regulator, but I think as soon as you start extending beyond that, as soon as you go from, if you like, being an inspectorate to being an agency, there’s all sorts of other stuff that happens, other drivers, all sorts of regulatory creep and that makes our ability to make qualifications, to respond to the sorts of educational needs that schools have, that colleges have, that employers have, that HE has, much more complex. I think taking some of the discussion there was about diplomas earlier on, they are a very good example of how some of the political involvement, the bureaucratic environment can make it very difficult to create new qualifications. They took tens of millions, possibly hundreds of millions of pounds to create, the structure of delivery is thoroughly unwieldy, I don’t think personally all of them will survive.You mentioned two of them that are of very good quality, but I think some of the quality is variable and these are all very good examples of people saying “we’ve got some skills shortages in the economy, what are we going to do about it? Let’s create some qualifications because that’s an easy lever to give a yank to.” And it’s not – it’s really complex, it’s difficult, it’s expensive. I think stepping back and letting qualifications professionals get on with the job, removing some of the bureaucracy and allowing us to extend choice, because we are good at developing qualifications, we can respond to some of the educational needs on the ground. I think that is a very positive thing and we have got to focus on it. There was also some talk earlier on about modularity and the sort of discussion if you like about skills versus knowledge and I think whether one has got to question whether that’s a real dilemma. The reality is that neither of them exist in a vacuum. Skills feed on knowledge and knowledge feeds on skills but nonetheless there have been some challenges of people’s acceptance of the way the qualifications system is structured. There has been a drift to modularity, and I think that has occurred in an, again, peculiar way. I don’t think anybody sat down and said “let’s go for modularity,” I think what happened was a desire to come up with an administratively neat universe of qualifications in which qualifications were interchangeable, in which you could switch and swap routes in theory and of course it looks great on paper, you see the Qualifications and Credit Framework but as my colleague said, “it’s not a framework it’s just a diagram.” Unfortunately, I think that is the reality of how a lot of these centrally driven qualifications reforms have happened and we Qualifications are part of have to think really seriously about what it the solution rather than is it that we want from a part of the problem qualifications system. How can it do what we like to feel we’re about which is promoting educational excellence? So I hope in five minutes I’ve given you at least a sense that qualifications are part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Thank you. Dale Bassett: Thank you very much indeed. A plethora of views there and I think, despite the angles, quite a lot of common agreement. Amanda talked about the importance of aspiration. She warned that in many cases that vocational qualifications add little to intellectual development and can limit pupils’ horizons and warned of the dangers of playing the equivalence game. Ros said “qualifications are fairly irrelevant to education,” and that curriculum and teaching were the important things, talked about the importance of engaging parents and raising their aspiration as well as that of pupils. Deborah said that a lot of people could be high performing students, that at the moment it is almost determined at birth but other countries can be optimistic and instil pupils with self belief and a sense of expectation about what they can achieve, and Simon said that qualifications could be part of the www.reform.co.uk 93 Schools for the future / Reform solution and warned that regulation means that we have worse qualifications than we otherwise might. We have got fifteen minutes so if I can ask both questions and answers to be as brief as possible and hopefully we can get through half a dozen or so. Let’s go one two three as a starting point. David Perks: David Perks, teacher in south London. The thing I was really interested in, because I’ve lived in Leeds and probably know a little bit about where you’re based and I taught in Harrogate in North Yorkshire, round the back of Harrogate and my experience of Leeds schools was get out fast. So if you have done something to turn that around all power to your elbow. The problem is, if you do believe in teaching academic knowledge on a subject basis, then you have to believe in examining it as well and making it something you can show to somebody else that it’s worthwhile and I am just a little bit nervous about how you explained what you are trying to do.You can get kids to get stuff out of your lessons, I’m absolutely sure you can do that, no problem at all, but the bottom line is to get them where you want them to be you’ve got to accept – and you may call it a hoop or whatever it is – you have got to get them to a qualification that makes sense to everybody else as well. That may be a tough ask but that’s really what you have got to do isn’t it? Richard Taylor: Richard Taylor. I had two questions, one is one of the things about what Ros described as hoops. When you look at the IB, isn’t one of the really interesting things about it that it is immune to political interference? It’s not based in a country, it’s based on an educational philosophy and not on exams, so that independence gives the user a whole lot more confidence, which we don’t really have because every time the hoops are moved it’s for political reasons rather than educational ones. Also for Professor Eyre, whether you have actually looked at things for example like the British military education system, in Germany Forces education run the equivalent of a small LEA. They get no more money, they have the same teachers, the same curriculum and yet they perform at a much higher level level than local authority in the UK. We’re all happy to rush off to Finland and Hong Kong and places like that whereas there are places in this country that could possibly be used by other schools and other educational authorities to look at what’s working here already. I think one of the other things I would promote to everyone who is here today is to buy this book which is called The Case of Working With Your Hands: Why office work is bad for you and fixing things is good, which is the number one education book in America at the moment and apparently amongst the Conservative education team. I have to say it debunks a lot of what you are talking about because in the future the knowledge economy and all our smart workers may actually have no jobs because you can’t outsource to China someone painting your house.You can certainly outsource your accounting and all your medical records and all those other things Gary Day: Gary Day from De Montfort University, which I think is probably not one of the best one according to one of the speakers on the panel. 94 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform Deborah Eyre: I didn’t say that. Gary Day: No, but you did make a distinction about universities and I think, with respect, it is that sort of attitude. If people come from a very deprived background and it is the first time they go to university, that is a hell of a big achievement for them and I think that does need to be recognised, but that’s not my point. The wider culture acts a brake on the kinds of attitudes that they’re talking about. We’re living in a celebrity culture, kids want to be footballers, they want to be pop stars, they find schools boring and those pressures are there all the time, they are constant. I just wonder how far the wider culture with its dismissal of education, with terms like geeks and nerds and so on and so forth, impacts on the kinds of changes that you’re talking about, because if you went back into the past, and you said don’t look back to the past too much but the past is full of educational initiatives and changing things and so on a so forth and those things haven’t worked, we’ve still got the same problems. So maybe these problems are deeper and more structural and can’t be resolved simply by a change of attitude and with all due respect to what you are doing, which is absolutely marvellous but I think that’s partly due to your own charisma really and strength of character and not everybody is going to be able to do that. So it is about the wider culture really. Dale Bassett: So if we can start with Simon and work our way along. Simon Lebus: I’d just like to respond to a couple of points. The first is about the IB and the fact that it has been quite effective at maintaining its standard over a period of years and is not regarded as being a contentious qualification. I think in some ways it is a good illustration of the point I was trying to make. One of the problems we face as UK awarding bodies is we don’t actually own the curricula, we don’t own the standard. What has happened is that there has been a process in which the responsibility for the curriculum has gone to the government, the responsibility for the standard has got to regulation and the poor old awarding body is behind, trying to respond to a set of different constraints imposed from two different sets of agencies and institutions. I think without that you don’t have the same sort of ownership of the standard and it makes it much more difficult to interact with schools and constituencies. It does actually make this whole issue of maintaining standards much more difficult and that combined with a constant churn of qualifications because of the constant cycle of regulation, we have to change qualifications, get them re-accredited on a cycle of every three to five years. Naturally the body of knowledge in a particular subject doesn’t change every five years in performance with the regulatory timetable and I think these are real issues. The IB, because it stands outside that set of arrangements has managed to avoid some of those problems. I very much hope that the signals we are now picking up is that we will acquire more of those freedoms. The second point I’d like to make is the issue of the wider cultural context and I absolutely agree with what you say. I think there are issues about how we educate people within the culture in which we live, but I also would just like to relate this specifically to the question of exams and qualifications, because one of the things I’ve been quite struck by is that we live and have lived for quite a long time in a culture with institutional assumptions about ever rising levels of achievement. We also live in a society where people are rather reluctant to submit themselves to judgement and yet of course exams are a form of judgement, and it is not surprising therefore that pupils are reluctant to submit themselves to a form of judgement. If we have rising expectations, people are far less ready to accept an exam system where 30 or 40 years ago coming out with a set of exam results that weren’t all As was a perfectly honourable thing to do and many of us, myself included, managed that and went on to live successful and happy lives. But in a sense it is a serious point because we have tried to introduce different qualifications, sometimes more challenging qualifications, and people are very ready to sign up for the educational challenge but perhaps less ready to accept the consequence that not everybody is going to get an A. I don’t know what the answer to that is but it is a serious issue and it needs some thought because unless we are ready to accept a wider level of differentiation, different results, different qualifications, we are not going to raise the bar. Deborah Eyre: Just to pick up on two or three things really. I guess like others the point that Simon was making about how regulation occurs in qualifications is a really important one because the IB, the way in which the IB is put together, it is a kind of values driven underpinning and that is very important to the way it works so being asked to accredit the qualifications where you have no say in the way in which the underpinning principles of the curriculum are scoped out is a strange artificial divide, interesting. The question of the Forces schools: it is not something anyone has ever commissioned me to look at particularly. My starting point – and I am very interested in what is being said – is that I think it is really good to learn from other people. When you have to earn your living, I tend to go wherever someone is paying me to find out. That is not to say that I don’t look at other places but I think we just need to look outside. We think we’ve looked a long way if we look in Scotland or Northern Ireland – and of course we all have to look at Finland because that’s what everybody is looking at apparently for some reason – but I think it is very important for us to look at ways that work successfully wherever they are, especially if they manage to work in a similar kind of way for less money. What could be better? I have to say I really feel quite passionately about this whole question of young people and their qualifications and what they’re offered in terms of fairness and actually I’ve been having this discussion over a period of time with various people with whom I’ve come into contact who tell me they were unsuccessful at school, people in their adult life who were unsuccessful at school and it is very interesting that other people told them they were no good and other people told them that they wouldn’t do things and now they are doing things because they are often self employed and therefore are running their own small business, but they would have found it much easier if someone had helped them with those higher level skills earlier on. So they are painters and decorators, but painters and decorators on the whole are not just painting their own house, they are painting other people’s and that means they are invoicing for VAT and everything else that kind of goes along with that and I guess that links to the question of universities. I apologise if you think I was implying in some way that De Montfort was anything less than a really good university, but I do think it is part of the point that you were making about qualifications. Different universities offer different things, and students applying to go to them need to know what they are buying into and what will be the outcome in terms of what they’re doing. If you want to do animation, don’t go to Oxford, it will be no help to you, go to Bournemouth. That’s the kind of thing you need to know – you need to know where is the place. Finally, wider cultures. Big problem. I think wider cultures is hugely a big problem, but we’re not the only place that has them and what I am suggesting is other places, the ubiquitous McDonald’s is in every country in the world and so we’re grappling with that and other people are grappling with it too. I’m just saying, in a provocative way since we are in a seminar and it pays to generate some debate, that it’s easy to rationalise why these things are difficult, but we also need to get into business of looking at what we can do about it. Amanda Spielman: Building aspiration is a very important part of our model and we work on it from the first day of primary school down to blatant things like naming our classrooms after universities and our aim is by the time our children are making career limiting choices, i.e., at age 14, they should have a really clear idea of what life has to offer them, the directions they think they might want to go and what it would take to get there, so they make choices that leave them room to do the sorts of things that they should be aspiring to do. Parallel to that, we have very explicitly high expectations that we are communicating to teachers and pupils from the very beginning and apart from a tiny minority of pupils with really serious permanent learning difficulties, the minimum expectation at every stage in our school is the level that is good enough if you continue on the trajectory to achieve the five plus English and Maths and to go on and be able to study at A level or similar courses. That has to go all the way through our schools. The third piece is we have to do a lot of teaching of the behaviour and personal attributes. We don’t assume that anybody arrives at secondary school already understanding how to behave perfectly in class. We know that we will have to teach a large proportion of our pupils how to sit in class, how to ask a question, when to ask a question, how to move around a school without disruption. We put an immense amount of effort into routines and things on top of that which are the beginnings of self discipline, perseverance, interpersonal skills – all the things without which people will not succeed in adult life. We see all of those pieces as essential to making our children benefit from a spectacularly good education so a good curriculum and good teaching leads to education in the life they ought to have. www.reform.co.uk 95 Schools for the future / Reform Ros McMullen: I wasn’t arguing that we shouldn’t have qualifications. I totally appreciate the fact that we have got to have qualifications. I think what I was saying is that a lot of the rubbish that we’ve heard today about the false juxtaposition between academic and vocational, between do you teach people how to learn or do you give them knowledge, these are just completely … Because there is the political interference that actually creates false juxtaposition that is just nonsense. The qualifications are not what you base your curriculum on. What you do is that you do absolutely what is right for your children to raise their aspirations and for them to have the highest possible aspirations, the highest possible achievement and destinations and what you do is take the qualifications that fit that. Did that all make sense? I think it did. I think that’s why the level of personalisation at our academy is so strong. I don’t think you’ll find any two students that have the same curriculum really and it is why we have such a wide range of qualifications. The ones you would expect we would have like your Hair and Beauty, we haven’t got but we do have some BTECs and we do have obviously GCSEs and we do have Diplomas and we do IB and we are doing City and Guilds for exactly the reasons you were saying and actually it is absolutely ridiculous to suggest that because somebody is going to get A* at GCSE and is going to go on and do the International Baccalaureate in the sixth form, that they shouldn’t be allowed to do a City and Guilds qualification during their senior three year in furniture making if they want to do it. Because actually I wish to God I had some practical skills, they would have come in very handy at various times in my life, and students might want to do that and for some students that might be absolutely vital to them being economically active as well in the community. I think it is the best possible variation that you have to fit raising aspirations and to fit high achievement and to fit actually having a place in society. The argument I’m making is because of the political interference that goes on with the curriculum and the qualifications in this country, that actually – and I just think it is absolute and utter nonsense, some of the debates that we have about that – education is about leading out and the problem is when we teach to an exam syllabus whatever that is, whatever the qualification is, we are narrowing in we’re not leading out. In International Baccalaureate, the lack of political interference, yes, that’s one of the great things about it, and the other great thing that appeals to me about the IB is that I think it is about that leading out, and I think it is underpinned by the values. I also think that the international dimension for the generation that we’re educating now is really important, because I think the way that I jump on a train to come to London which would never have been thought of by the people who were training me years ago. It’s the same for our kids jumping on a plane going here, there and everywhere. Their interaction with the BRIC countries is going to be huge so I think they should be educated to an international dimension. The wider culture is very interesting. I refuse to pay attention to the wider culture being a problem because it’s there. I can tell you the ten common characteristics of a failing school straight away, and the first one is they will tell you about the culture within 96 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform their community and they will tell you about our type of kid. It always strikes me as rather bizarre that they have got a different type of kid to everybody else’s type of kid, but that is a common characteristic of a failing school. Yes, the culture’s out there whether that culture is knife wielding gangs and drug dealers, or whether that culture is the emotional neglect and abuse that high aspirational families can impose on their children and the fact that those children need a lot more nurturing. Whatever it is, the culture’s out there. I actually think what’s important isn’t the wider culture out there. What is important is the culture that you have in your establishment. That’s what’s important, because we cannot change anything but what we have control of. There is that old saying, “give me the courage to change the things I can and the serenity to accept things I can’t and the wisdom to know the difference”, and actually I can’t do anything about footballers bloody wives, but what I can do is if somebody tells me they want to grow up and marry a footballer I can look down my nose at them and say that girls that aspire to those sorts of things are the girls that [inaudible] and walk off.You can set a culture. Dale came to us and he was amazed because one of the things that we do is we have our own language. Because the kids do come from the most deprived area of Leeds and it is tough out there, what we do is when they come through the door they’re on stage and we all maintain our roles for the entire day and nobody shouts in our academy, nobody ever raises their voice and we have conversations with each other so if I pass another person in the corridor I’ll say ‘Are you having a nice day?’ and they say ‘I’m having a wonderful day, Mrs McMullen’ and the kids copy and it is really, really interesting and we have children. As I say I’ve been there four years now and it’s really embedded and the children will say ‘I’ve made a poor choice’ or ‘I didn’t press pause Miss, I hit him’. But they are actually using the language that we have given them and we are embedding the culture because it is all you can do, that is all you can do. Dale Bassett: Thank you very much indeed. I’m afraid we are going to have to leave it there because we are five minutes over time but thank you to the panel. Education for less Andrew Haldenby: Look, the schools budget is going to come under pressure, all Government budgets are under pressure. This isn’t going to stop any time soon because not only does the deficit have to be paid off, which will take at least one Parliament, but also the national debt then has to be paid down, so it is a ten year thing not a one or two or three year thing at least. So the question is, is Reform, my organisation, are we right that it is possible to do more for less, it is possible that by doing things differently to achieve better outcomes at a lower cost or will these so-called cuts mean lower quality and that’s what we have to discuss in the next fifty minutes. Let me introduce our panel. Steve Beswick, Director of Education at Microsoft. He has been at Microsoft for sixteen years and he is now in education having worked previously on Microsoft’s work with other public sector clients, so perhaps you will be able to give us a comparison, Steve, between education and the other sectors. Dale Bassett, of Reform, who you know. Shaun Fenton, the Headmaster of Pate’s Grammar School, which is a state grammar school in Cheltenham, and previously to that Shaun has worked in a number of schools from achieving in ones with failing measures to ones with outstanding achievement. And lastly, Chris Davies, the Education Director of Tribal, and also the Governor of a primary school in south London. I am going to give Dale a break and let’s ask Shaun Fenton to speak first and then we’ll have Dale and then we’ll have Chris and Steve and I should warn, I know there some head teachers in the audience like Jill and deputy heads like Mike who have yet to speak so I am going to draw you in to ask questions at the end. Right, so Shaun first. Shaun Fenton: Thank you very much and good afternoon. I come to the front and everyone leaves, it’s just like being at a staff meeting at school! There are other heads in the audience so there will be as many opinions on this as there are people in the room and particularly as there are heads in the room, as we are absolutely passionate and convinced we are right and spend a lot of our career proving that to other people. I am optimistic about the future, I have to say. There have been ten years where I have been pleased to be involved in education. This is now my second headship, previously in a comprehensive school and working for the local authority and now in a grammar school. I am also optimistic that there is a new way forward and I am going to convince myself and as many people as I can that we’ve seen all the benefits we can get from just putting more and more money in education and now we can take advantage of the opportunities to look at it in a different way. Of course it would be nice to keep getting more money but the reality is that we have got to believe we can do things better and differently because there won’t be. Education for me is about children, about building the school around every child, every day, a bespoke brand new construction, so that the children have a happy and successful school life. Qualifications will open doors for them but their personal character, their personal development, their framework of moral reference will mean when those doors open for them, they can do something with those opportunities, they can make the world a better place. So we need good schools for all our We’ve seen all the benefits children. The discussions we’ve been we can get from just having in our school putting more and more when we were money in education considering becoming an Academy, we are keen to become an Academy as soon as we can to engage in really authentic collaboration and partnership work and to also establish our identity as a state grammar school clearly and securely in another education system for the future – we have been having discussions in school and one of the strong themes is that we need to get rid of a system where there are schools where teachers wouldn’t want to send their children. We have got to have good enough schools for all children. So what are the opportunities for the future and in doing more for less? Well there is loads I would like to talk about, the equivalence agenda, the influence of Ofsted – we had a really interesting discussion with parents where we agreed that Ofsted forces us to try to pretend everything is we need to get rid of a perfect rather than for us to make anything system where there are better. Maybe that is a schools where teachers bit of a paranoid way of wouldn’t want to send looking at it but the their children compliance agenda is a difficult one and I am looking forward to freedoms at a time when finances are drying up as well. I am hoping also at a time when a bit more freedom is coming in to education that we will be able to cling on to what we value rather than merely valuing what we can measure. There is a big gap there that has grown up over the compliance agenda. There are as many opinions as there are people in education but I would say that the national pay scales are a barrier to innovation and improvement in our schools. In the short term there could be a significant impact on goodwill in the teaching profession if we take that on, in the longer term it might even be that good teachers get paid better than less effective teachers and that might not be seen to be a crazy thing. The performance management processes that have been brought in most schools and mea culpa here, in most schools heads – and I am sure there cases where this is not the case but in many schools at least heads have let the performance management and pay progression be really that if you turn up for enough years, you get promoted and you get put up the pay scales purely by being barely competent rather than being excellent. As well as national pay scales, I would say freeing head teachers to do their job as leaders would be also excellent. I feel I have a presumption against me as head either by bureaucratic processes or union pressures or whatever, we all know who the good teachers are, we knew when we were at school, in any school community we know who the better and more effective teachers are and it is a diverse definition because you need to have, children need a key relationship with an adult in the school and you need a diverse group of adults, you need to have space in a staff room for mavericks and we don’t need to have a tick list approach to what makes a good teacher but what we do need is to give heads the power, well it’s not about hire and fire, that’s a bit emotive but to take decisions about staffing, that if you are appointed head of department at 28 it is not a job for life, there might come a time when you are [inaudible]. So free heads to do their job. Teaching and learning, those two things actually, pay scales and teachers doing their jobs might save some money because we might be able to run things more efficiently, focusing on teaching and learning and evidence based teaching and learning rather than government initiative teaching and learning would also be a good way forward. I can’t say how that’s going to save money but it might be more effective and technology, there may be some room for doing things more cheaply where we combine the issues of teaching and learning and technology. It might be that some of my best teachers in the school I’m in now could teach very effectively groups of thirty or forty or fifty supported video conferencing, supported by being recorded and put on the internet with resources there in our virtual learning environment and some seminars www.reform.co.uk 97 Schools for the future / Reform there in smaller groups but maybe we need to challenge whether or not it is actually about an excellent teacher rather than a small class and that may be an area of saving money, so larger classes with excellent teachers rather than smaller classes with poor teachers. A couple of other points from me. A culture change – those were all things that could happen in my school, a couple of things, observations about the system. There is a danger in education that I perceive that where things need to be improved, the intervention to improve is measured more by the quantity of support that a school gets rather than the impact of that support. Certainly when I was working for the local education authority, the description of what we were doing to support schools – and it wasn’t in Gloucestershire by the way, it was in a previous life – the description of what we were doing to support schools was about how many advisers and advanced skills teachers and consultants had gone in rather than the impact on student experience and learning and actually, usually within a couple of days or less time, the advisors were whispering to each other the thing that wasn’t allowed to be said which was I can work for two years with this teacher and that will never be enough for these children but that wasn’t as important as showing evidence that we’d intervened. That investment in failure is a really interesting feature of the last ten years. The most expensive place to get an education in the state sector has been the schools that have been getting the lowest results because of all the extra support and money that has been thrown at them and I guess if it Per pupil spending, as was my child, I would want them not to be in a most of you will know, is school which is getting now double in real terms lots of investment the level that it was in thrown at it but in a 1997/98. Is the school school that was just system now twice as good really good. I’m in a school because of all the as it was in 1997/98? work that the staff do, the fact that we can recruit students that are able and it actually is an outstanding school, if you said that we would only be able to be outstanding if we also helped another school to be very successful, boy would it sharpen our mind and turn authentic partnership into a real impact based partnership rather than just sometimes a relationship that’s done because we feel we have to. The very last point is on local authorities and local authorities, really good stuff, they have done lots of good things, there is lots to be said for them but just to illustrate the point, we had a discussion the other day, a group of heads said if Academy status means that a school might get two or three hundred thousand pounds in addition to their budget in the first year, is that worth more than the support that they get from the local authority? No question that that money is out of all proportion worth far more than the support they get from the local authority and there could be significant savings there to the tune of hundreds and thousands of pounds for each school across the local education authority, some examples perhaps of where we could do more for less. Andrew Haldenby: You said all that in such a quiet and diplomatic way that it took me a minute to realise just how radical you were being! A very nice trick. Dale Bassett. 98 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform Dale Bassett: Thank you. An increase in school spending every year, year on year, this year, next year and the year after were words spoken by Ed Balls in January this year. Now I suspect that had the election result been different that wouldn’t have happened, given the election result we’ve got it’s definitely not going to happen although we should bear in mind that the Coalition has committed to an as yet unspecified pupil premium to come from outside the schools budget to be added on top so they are basically still talking about spending more money. It is not going to happen and in fact it has already happened. Per pupil spending, as most of you will know, is now double in real terms the level that it was in 1997/98. Is the school system now twice as good as it was in 1997/98? No. What can we say about the school system today? Well for all the improvements and there have been many along with the problems of the last 13 years and indeed of the government before that, we are still in a situation now in the second decade of the 21st century where somehow more than half of all 16 year olds still leave school without five decent GCSEs including English and Maths. Something is going terribly wrong and doubling spending doesn’t appear to have fixed it. Why? Well there are a whole host of reasons, Shaun has just touched on a lot of them, I’m going to talk about two very briefly. The first is policy-makers’ obsession with visible spending. It is all about inputs, it has nothing whatever to do with outputs and the two big areas in which this is manifested is staff and buildings. Shaun touched on staff. Staff numbers and class sizes are an obsession of politicians, I think because they are an obsession of parents and as we’ve heard today, it is quality not quantity that makes the difference when it comes to teaching. This is where basically all the extra money has gone. We know that 78 per cent of the average school budget is spent on staff. Over the past ten years we’ve seen a 10 per cent increase in the number of teachers. We now have two and a half times as many teaching assistants as a decade ago and we also know, as per the Unison survey that came out last week, that two thirds of those are taking whole classes which they are not in any way qualified to do. We know that has a bad effect on education, particularly those who need the best education. Academic research has fairly consistently shown that class size has a negligible impact in the majority of cases. There are some exceptions to that, particularly reception and possibly Year 1, and there are certain other situations, obviously I’m excluding SEN from this area, but in the majority of cases, class sizes within sensible parameters doesn’t have a huge impact. What’s more, I think teachers know this and one indicator this recently by the Association of School and College Leaders found that two thirds of head teachers would reduce class sizes as a priority measure given a cut of just 2 per cent in their budget, which suggests that in fact heads think that class sizes can be bigger without affecting quality as well. The other big area of capital spending is buildings and capital expenditure. Building Schools for the Future was, and still is, a huge mistake. There are and in particular were a lot of schools that were falling down and in dire need of repair, we should have repaired those rather than focusing on rebuilding and refurbishing every single school in the country. It is a colossal waste of money, there are also huge inefficiencies in the system and I know that Steve is going to talk about that so I’ll leave that there but what matters, as we’ve seen, is teacher quality and not buildings and staff. Just briefly, the other issue I want to touch on and again it has been talked about today, the purpose of education and mission creep, what are we actually trying to achieve? The amount of stuff that schools have responsibility for now I think is beyond most people’s comprehension.The beginning of the day, the end of the school day and what they are meant to do when they are there, what are we actually trying to focus on? I think if we ask ourselves that we will hopefully be able to get better value for money.Thank you. Steve Beswick: Thank you. Education for less and the question was does a reduction in spending mean a reduction in quality? I suppose my answer to that is not necessarily, but it does depend on how you spend your money. I am going to concentrate on three areas: the contribution schools can make, the contribution industry can make and the contribution that government can make and clearly I’ll have an IT theme around that given who I work for and the job that I do. Let’s look at the schools’ contribution first. I think with the situation that schools find themselves in today they have to look at themselves as a business as well as an educational establishment and businesses today invest in IT for two main reasons, one to improve productivity and two, to save costs. Now I think we have done a lot of work and we have been part of that over many years, how IT can contribute to teaching and learning and we will absolutely continue with that thing but there is very little work being done in schools around how IT can save costs in the same way that a business would and I think that’s something that has to be looked at. We’ve done some work in that area and spoken to a number of schools who have looked at this and just to give you some examples of cost saving ideas that they have come up with, first of all stop doing all the photocopying. The photocopying bill in a secondary school we’re told is actually bigger than the IT budget, so start viewing the information instead of photocopying it is one idea. Switch to virtualising some of the servers you’ve got in your school, you can save a ton of money on hardware by virtualisation and you can save a ton of electricity if you use new software that’s around today to reduce your electricity bill. So just three ideas. In total we have got 14 different ideas on how to save money, all the data has come from secondary schools independently of us in terms of the use of technology and when you add those up together, of which I have given you three examples, the total is £400,000 over three years cost saving. Actually you reduce your costs and actually end up with quite a good IT infrastructure as well because you have to invest in IT to save money elsewhere. The second point I want to make is industry contribution and first of all I want to talk about this in the context of industry trends and technology trends. There are going to be new ways, there are new ways today of delivering IT services and you hear a lot of jargon in the industry called cloud computing. Cloud computing is really a rich set of IT services that can be delivered over the internet from large scale data centres and we, along with other organisations, are investing a lot in this area. Just to give you an idea, Microsoft is investing and we purchase 10,000 servers a month to put in our data centres around the world, so we are making a big investment and there is very cost effective ways of using IT, using the cloud. One service today that we offer is free email services. There are a lot of schools today with legacy systems paying for their email, we are offering a very, very rich email service free of charge so there is money saving that can happen there as well. As an industry we have got to help schools, and we take this very seriously, to understand the cloud and as to how the cost savings can be made. Another area where the industry has to, if you like, help the school system is around things like supporting quality teachers. We heard the theme today around CPD, then we as an industry have got to do much better work in terms of how do we embed the IT with the CPD, in terms of what that’s going to look like in the future. We do invest a lot of money today, we have many programmes, one of them is called “partners in learning” where we are investing in curriculum to help teachers understand how it is easier to embed technology into how they teach because that’s something that is going to get more and more in the future, so we think we have been listening in that but there is an industry contribution to make. The final one is the government contribution. We can talk a lot about the government contribution to cost saving, I just want to talk about one which is about building schools. BSF is a hot topic at the moment if you like but I just want to talk about one school we’re working with, it’s a trust school, Monkseaton High School in Newcastle, it was the first trust school I believe in the UK. They have gone through a new build, outside of PFI, outside of BSF, they’ve done an audit on their build, it is 9 per cent less than the average of the industry. It didn’t include any consulting costs associated with the programme itself and they went ahead outside the control if you like of the local authority to go and built what is a fantastic school and the costs being lower was no barrier to the innovation and quality of what they’ve got up there. Having been up there and seen it, there are lots of awards for the construction and certainly the way the IT is embedded is brilliant so three ideas for costs savings – schools contribution, lots of ideas and ways there; industry has got a point to make and obviously government have got a contribution to make as well. Andrew Haldenby: Steve, fantastic and lastly Chris Davies. Chris Davies: I aim to be similarly brief and will build I suspect on a lot of what has already been said. I was really encouraged when I saw the format of this discussion because I think schools resources hasn’t been a subject that has been particularly high on the priority list in terms of discussions around education and that is exactly the reason that Dale has described in terms of funding settlements, given that for the last 30 years it has been steadily increasing why worry about how schools are actually using their resources? I think what we’ve seen is an increase in [disengendering] and this increase in a culture amongst many schools that it is something that they don’t www.reform.co.uk 99 Schools for the future / Reform particularly have to focus on and therefore haven’t devoted an awful lot of attention to looking at for the simple fact that by and large, in the majority of cases, most schools have had enough resources to do broadly what it is that they need to be doing. There are obviously exceptions but most schools are in a pretty much okay kind of position. Coupled with that then, and we have heard a lot about accountability today, we haven’t seen very much grit around financial accountability for schools. Ofsted makes a value for money judgement but that has got nothing to do with how effectively a school manages its budget and schools that run into deficit can go for really quite a long time trundling along at that kind of level before there is any serious intervention to deal with that problem and of course last time there was a great opportunity to put a bit of pressure on schools use of resources, back in 2003 when the NI contributions looked as if they were going to cause big pressure on the staffing budget, the government stepped in, intervened and bailed schools out of that. So this is not a subject that by and large many school leaders have had to focus on and that means the period that we are about to go into is going to be hugely challenging for an awful lot of school leaders. Most people weren’t there the last time we were dealing with a declining budget. The good news is that there are things that schools can do, some are easier than others and one thing that we see from a lot of the work that we do out in schools is heads saying how on earth can we make efficiencies when 80 per cent of my budget goes on staffing? Well yes, you can make efficiencies out of the 20 per cent that goes on pay spend but clearly dealing with workforce is going to be where you’re going to have to go if you are going to have to deal with the 10-15 per cent cuts that some people are suggesting are going to come out of the spending review. On procurement, I absolutely echo what Steve has talked about, photocopying is a fantastic example of where schools are hugely inefficient, not just in their use of it but in the contracts they enter into. The research that we’ve been doing shows that you could easily strip out probably across the school estate as a whole somewhere in the region of between three and five hundred million pounds simply from getting schools to manage demand and their contracts more effectively. They don’t have to change suppliers, just get their suppliers to do what they contracted them to do in the first place, if they contracted them which is a wholly separate issue. Around workforce and getting into the meat of how you get the most out of that, I think there are some big challenges here for school leaders. Teaching assistants I think we have already touched on, I think that is a hugely challenging area. Areas round making the best use of curriculum in order to drive changes in workforce structures is a great opportunity and linked to that is having a clear understanding of what works and if you like what doesn’t and we’ll come back to that in a second. I think there are also opportunities for changing the ways that management structures have developed over time and part of this links obviously into things around clusters and federations that are developing as a big policy theme but even with schools there are significant opportunities that we’ve found from many of the schools that we’ve worked with. Then of course 100 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform there is performance management and it is absolutely right, we manage our teachers performance very poorly and I think that means we’re not getting best value out of many of them. Alongside all that there are a whole series of blockers. I think schools not knowing how to approach this is a big challenge, and that is nothing to do with the quality of leaders that we’ve got, I think it’s to do with the experiences and training that we’ve been given, we know there is very little decent training around management as opposed to all the other things that we expect head teachers and others to do. I think there are likely to be difficulties therefore around how schools can approach this from a strategic perspective and understanding exactly what are they there to do, what does that mean and the way in which they use their resources. I think the point you raised Shaun about how can you use learning from what works in order to drive efficiencies, I think that comes from having an understanding of how schools have added to their burdens by taking on more and we manage our teachers’ more without giving performance very poorly up some things that are and I think that means less effective and I we’re not getting best value think it was Dylan’s point earlier about out of many of them. leadership being about stopping people from doing good things in order that they can do better things, I think that is absolutely right and this notion of abandonment that is starting to develop within the sector of giving things up is something that we are going to start to see an awful lot more of. Lastly, I think one of the biggest challenges that is going to prevent schools from getting the best out of their resources is that increasingly they are going to be on their own and I buy into the suggestion that there is a lot of pent up talent in there but I also think we need to come back to a bit of reality that alongside all the inspirational heads, many of whom are here and many of whom have sat up at this table, there are a lot who will struggle with this sort of thing and as the Department withdraws into the centre and as local authorities start to wither on the vine, who’s going to help those schools deal with these things in a meaningful way so they don’t damage outcomes? Andrew Haldenby: Fantastic. So here we are – we are going to spend less on bureaucracy, we are going to have bigger class sizes, few staff, lower pay, we are going to grind our suppliers’ faces in it until they lower their costs and we’re going to cut deprivation spending in deprived areas. Is that right? That is obviously where the money is but is … oh sorry, we are also going to stop building so many schools – so is that the right territory and are we happy as a group that that can go hand in hand with genuine improvement? I did say I was going to pick on Gill Bal, who is a head teacher in North London and Michael Haldenby, my cousin indeed, who is a deputy headmaster in London and I shall also pick on Amanda Spielman as well, because these are people who know about school budgets and I would be interested in your thoughts about how you can cut 20 per cent out of your budgets in the next two or three years. Gill Bal: Hi, I am Gill Bal, head of Wembley High. I think you have to be rational and logical about this. In my school about 80 per cent of the budget is spent on staffing so I have to look at staffing. I think the school pay and conditions document really does tie my hands up. The kind of situation has arisen where because of the school pay and conditions document I am not allowed to use teachers for cover so problems are created through that. We are looking, or my governors will be considering, whether we can become an Academy and we have expressed an interest in it so there may be some freedoms in all sorts of places. I think the government has got to stop throwing money at schools that are not doing so well, that philosophy and way of thinking has got to go and schools that perversely are not doing well are the schools they thought would be best served under BSF, so that’s even worse I think. I think what you have to do is trust school leaders to start working together, you have got to give them freedoms to manage their budgets, to look at how they can produce savings. They know how to run schools efficiently, mine’s an outstanding school, I know how to do it, I can work with others and help them and learn from them how to do this so I think let us work together, give us the job to do and we can do this job. Michael Haldenby: Thank you. Shaun , you made an interesting point, the one I’ll focus on is freeing up school leaders, giving them freedom which of course my ears pricked up at that because that’s what we’re after the whole time.When I analyse the work I do, in a nutshell it is making sure that we don’t get sued that is the number one job on my list every single day.That sounds flippant but we have got safeguarding now which means we are safeguarding training all summer so all the work on teaching and learning has gone out of the window.We’ve got the Every Child Matters agenda still there, you name it and we’re avoiding being sued all the time and that culture of litigation isn’t going to go away so in that context how would you like to be freed up as a head teacher is my question and is it at odds with what you can do in reality? Amanda Spielman: I think I’d like to add something rather than ask a question if that’s all right which is simply to say we’ve got eight schools, I think it would be wrong to regard schools as paragons of perfection. In general I think the closer decision making is to the pupils the better.We have got that through all our schools but the very rapid growth in school funding has led to a lot of inefficiency at school level. I would also like to say I feel very strongly that the quality of school spending would be enormously improved if there could be transparency and certainty from year to year about the level of funding rather than opaque formulas and endlessly shifting money coming from an endlessly shifting set of pots. Andrew Haldenby: Thank you, let’s take those and start with Shaun and then Chris and Dale and Steve. Shaun Fenton: The mission creep you talked of, unfortunately that’s just an inevitability now. If schools don’t also try to help children develop their own self esteem, the capacity to work with others, to understand their role in society, everything from good manners to high aspirations, if we don’t do that then we are leaving a social problem that no one else is going to pick up. It would be great if we could say let’s just focus on getting the academic learning or something slightly broader than that but I fear that’s not what we need for our country. I would just say, photocopying in my school is £40,000. If we halve it it’s £20,000, 15 per cent of my budget is going to a million pounds, so we need to keep a sense of reality. There is a real danger that the private sector says, oh it’s all sloppy in the public sector and there is money sloshing around. Actually we do try to be rigorous although I do agree that the “throw more money at them every year” type of approach doesn’t encourage that. The comment I will just make on the freedoms, there is a real danger of careful what you ask for. I suspect the security of tenure for heads in the next ten years, especially if they become heads of academies and if there are more freedoms, security of tenure will reduce because there will be more autonomy but also more accountability and more of us getting pushed out because we’re not performing well enough, which as a turkey approaching the end of November, I’m feeling a bit awkward about but for our children’s sake – well if I say why should a head of department have a job for life, then why should a head have a job for life? I suppose if they’re doing a great job they’re fine, if they’re not they move on to a different job. It’s an awkward thing to say but it is probably an idea whose time has come. Andrew Haldenby: That’s true and fine, you’re going to be more accountable but the quid pro quo of that are greater freedoms and do you want those greater freedoms to be able to save money, that’s the question? Shaun Fenton: What heads have become very good at and in the last ten, fifteen years that I have been in and around them, is finding whatever they are supposed to be doing and then perverting it into a way that works for their own local context. If we didn’t have to do that ridiculous rewriting of instructions and could just say … In fact the profession has been beaten up. I said to some teachers the other day, never mind what you think you are supposed to do, just remember why you came in to education. Re-light the torch of those values that you came in for and what would be the right thing to do? They looked at me really suspiciously, how could that possibly be a question that anyone would genuinely ask! [Laughter] Chris Davies: If I can I will just pick up on your question actually to start with, I think I’d frame the question differently. It’s not that heads should be given greater freedom in order to save money, it’s that heads should be given greater freedom to deploy the resources that they’ve got in the best way in order to achieve the outcomes they want to achieve. I think that’s part of the problem with this subject, it becomes all about the [inaudible] complexities and the pupil premium and funding formulae when actually it is about how are you using the www.reform.co.uk 101 Schools for the future / Reform resources in order to do the best for the kids that you have in the school at the time. I think that’s where Jill’s point becomes interesting about working together, and linking up with Shaun ’s point about there being greater instability and uncertainty for tenure. Certainly many of the heads that we’ve spoken to would be delighted to help other schools but why would they because what they are measured on and what they’re assessed on is the performance of their school and how they have done in relation to that. I think that is one of the big challenges, that we are not necessarily building a structure that will encourage schools to work together in a way that they are going to need to in order to achieve some of these things. It isn’t just taking 20 thousand quid off photocopiers, the reality is that it will be cutting in to workforce and that’s people’s jobs and that becomes much more difficult. Dale Bassett: Just briefly picking up on Amanda’s point on transparency and particularly certainty in funding. Chris said it is about heads using resources well and the kind of funding system makes it pretty much impossible for heads to actually do that, the It is about heads using resources well and the kind fact that you don’t know what is going to of funding system makes it happen year on year, pretty much impossible for particularly as far as heads to actually do that … capital budgets are You get the wrong spending concerned.You get the wrong spending at the at the wrong time, you wrong time, you spend spend the money because the money because you’ve got to, the Audit you’ve got to Commission tells you off for running a surplus, God forbid, and I think it is going to become an increasingly big issue. At the moment there is the minimum funding guarantee that gives you, whilst not certainty, at least some idea that the numbers are going to continue going in the right direction. That presumably is not going to last. The Government has, in my view commendably, said it is going to try and move towards a national per pupil funding formula. The complexity of the current system means whether it can ever achieve that is a question mark, but that would go a long way to helping solve that particular problem. Steve Beswick: Just a couple of comments on some of the questions. First of all the sharing of best practices and head teachers getting together. I think in the future technology has got a role to play now as well. Everybody is busy but how do we share best practice? We need that even more in a devolved system that’s going to happen than maybe we’ve had previously so we see good practice but very little way that systemic change can happen around the use of IT across the system so we think again that the industry, not just Microsoft, but the industry has a role to play in how we foster people getting together with very busy lives and how you get head teachers talking to head teachers, that’s the first point. The freeing up of school leaders, yes, when I look at it from a business point of view, as I say, if you are a business person running a business like I do, you 102 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform have to be free from the shackles if you like to make the decisions in order to make the cost savings that I have to do every day so I agree, in terms of freeing up school leaders. The other thing around transparency and round year to year uncertainty, we’ve worked on projects where there has been some certainty and seen some fantastic results, where you are probably trying to get parents involved more in the school, you are using technology to link the parents to the school, not just around how the pupils are doing but lots of other areas as well and community interest as to how that school can work within that community, to the extent where in some areas of high deprivation where there was some money over many years spent, we had a situation where one parent who was long term unemployed found out that by using the parental engagement system that he was actually pretty good at IT and actually taught himself because he wanted to find out about his child’s progress, taught himself IT and got a job. I’ve just given that as an example because that is multi-year type work, multi-year type funding that has been available in the past but those are the kind of results you can get when you are looking at multi. Andrew Haldenby: If we can have Richard Taylor again and is that Tony Gardiner at the back and then Robert again. Richard Taylor: I’ll be terribly quick, Andrew. I think that we should be spending a lot less money on ICT, the rest of the world calls it IT. BSF was £16.75 per pupil, the latest figures from the Independent Schools Council showed that independent schools spend £150 per student per year so roughly they spend a third if you look at the grossed up figure. Oddly enough secondary government schools, according to the Publishers Association, spend around £2 per pupil on books, private schools spend about £100. So perhaps we have a bit of a cargo cult which unfortunately blinds us to things that might actually lead to some real improvements. We can also stop a hold of non evidenced based large education programmes from the centre, things like Teachers TV for If the government had given example or laptops for teachers where we that money to Reform to spent 20 million giving do something in schools away 200,000 laptops and given you 20 million, for absolutely no purpose. Now if the they wouldn’t have expected to you to spend government had given money to Reform to 15 million on the evaluation that do something in schools and five million on and given you 20 delivering the programme. million, they wouldn’t have expected to you to spend 15 million on the evaluation and five million on delivering the programme, so I think that is something we have to look at. Also I would disagree that free really means free and a good example is that Sydney University went to GMail. The problem they had was the huge information security and information sovereignty issue that the GMail service was based in America which meant that all of their intellectual property would have been available to US authorities if it was requested by a court. So Sydney University’s GMail server is now based in Switzerland. And whether you use Bing or use Google to do a search, apparently according to the latest research, one search on Google is the equivalent energy use, because of all the servers in the background, of boiling two kettles. So actually it is not really free at all, it just means you have moved the cost base. Tony Gardiner: I don’t know if I’m alone in feeling we have got hijacked by the ‘less’ and lost sight of the ‘education’. I’d like to draw attention to and comment on two aspects where I think this title applies which again underlines the difference between the ethos difference between independent and state schools. One is professionalism and willingness to work out of hours and out of term time. Cover must be I don’t think schools have absolute curse for been in the habit of saying an an awful lot of heads, we need to do something somehow somebody extra therefore we should has to re-negotiate this stop doing something else. whole deal, as they have done with the GPs but we’ll leave that aside, so that people will behave professionally, will continue learning in the vocations and not expect to be paid extra but may get promotion as a result. I think you can do a lot more for less if you re-negotiate and get the job done on the cheap, where I am not sure you can do it for much less, you can abolish QCDA. The idea that you can go to universities and find experts who will advise you on how to do the curriculum is a complete joke because the JMB 30 years ago was dominated by Leeds, Sheffield, Liverpool, Birmingham, Manchester and there were people in the universities who engaged with the curriculum. Now there aren’t. So by all means involve universities but there is a vacuum at the moment as to how we are going to rethink the curriculum. If you want to do the last session which was raising the bar, you cannot do it with Curriculum 2007, it is awful. So we have got to redo something and I’m not sure how we can do it for nothing. Jonathan Holland: Jonathan Holland, Tribal. Chris’s point that slipped out at the end about abandonment is I do think is very important. I don’t think schools have been in the habit of saying we need to do something extra therefore we should stop doing something else. I had a practical example recently of a school that provides online reporting to the parents suddenly realised why on earth were we providing annual reports as well and stopped doing it. That is a simple thing but it saved a lot of activity. The other point is taking your point about education. CPD is going to become increasingly important. We heard a lot this morning about freedom but I also heard a lot about things that were going to change which have a lot of CPD implications in it and it links really with Steve’s point. We do have the technology now to provide any time, anywhere learning, to be bespoke, to be accessed whenever teachers or staff want to use it, for them to self assess, for them to go for materials that they need to support them. Tribal has an NCTM model that has some elements of this but the technology is there where you can actually improve CPD at less cost and we ought to be looking at things like that. Robert Moreland: Robert Moreland. I should also declare that I come from Cheltenham and I know that school and have a high regard for it, even if you have become mixed. I quite simply want to pick up what the lady over there said about money not being thrown at bad schools and certainly looking at the area around my school, a lot of money has been thrown under BSF to schools that are low academically and we’re actually in the next phase and I think one of the things that the government has to look out for is it actually may well be starving the schools that are gong to need the capital which we certainly do. My other question was quite simply, someone who hasn’t been mentioned which is the School Improvement Partners and I suspect this leads to a difference between governors and heads because I get the impression that heads like them, we as governors hate them because we regard them as local authority spies and indeed on the side of the head. Joe Garrod: Joe Garrod, Navigant. I was very interested to hear the panels’ comments on how the concept of free schools and how the associated costs of putting further surplus places into the system along with the capital revenue costs of establishing new smaller institutions can be reconciled with at the same time delivering education for less on a system wide basis. I’ve not heard a convincing answer in that respect and would interested if there any insights on the panel. Andrew Haldenby: There are quite a lot of points there, I might divide them up. Steve, do you want to take Richard Taylor’s point on the ICT and also the point from Tribal, a more positive point, on ICT. Shaun , Tony Goddard is absolutely right saying this is about more as well as less, is he right that we should be getting more out of teachers in the holidays? Chris and Dale, that’s a very important point on free schools, do they make the system less efficient? So let’s do those, Steve. Steve Beswick: First of all, Laptops for Teachers was quite some time ago but you cannot just throw IT out there and expect people to use it if they don’t know how to use it so you have got to have it with CPD so that’s why investment needs to be made by the industry to help. This idea of just taking money and buying kit is wrong. On the other point around free, I suppose when I say free I mean from a Microsoft standpoint there’s no licence, there’s a 10 gigabyte inbox that we don’t charge for and a 25 gigabyte space so is there a cost in setting that up by people? Yes. Will you save money because you don’t have to buy servers? Yes. The data resides in the EU, we’re not going to use it for advertising at all, we’re not going to use any of the data and we can guarantee that. It is an investment model by us. Okay, free might not be absolutely free but my point is that in the cloud data environment there are a lot of savings to be made. www.reform.co.uk 103 Schools for the future / Reform Dale Bassett: Yes, free schools and surplus places. Well obviously the Government has a very neat answer to this, which is if you give every pupil the same amount of money then it doesn’t matter how many new schools you build, you are still only spending the same amount of money for the same number of pupils, the idea being to move the surplus places from the bad schools into the good schools. Well it is lovely in principle but how on earth is it going to work in practice? It probably isn’t. There are two parts to this, the first I think is on capital and the answer is it’s not going to be a case of building lovely shiny new schools like the first generation of academies, that just isn’t going to be what it is. It is going to be making do and mending with what you can, it is going to be renting, it is going to be innovative use of other spaces like office buildings and it is also going to be the Government hopefully trying to figure out some sort of way to provide a financial guarantee to schools so they can go out to the private sector, the financial sector and get capital expenditure up front that they can amortise over time. The thing about free schools is that they create an incentive. If you give every pupil a fixed amount of money and tell every parent they can take their child to which ever school they are going to go to, the parent by definition will, should anyway, seek out value for money. They are going to seek out the school that is going to deliver the most for that fixed amount of money so in actual fact that can be a mechanism for increasing efficiency rather than decreasing it, assuming that it is set up right, assuming that the information is there. Shaun Fenton: Just to add something on free schools. From a school leader’s perspective I think it might increase a healthy but sometimes uncomfortable dynamic where parents and other groups might engage more with the existing schools as part of their evaluation as to whether or not they are going to go off If you give every pupil a and their expectations fixed amount of money and of their ability to influence the way tell every parent they can schools are run might take their child to which be raised and parents ever school they are going may feel they are a more empowered to go to, the parent by stakeholder because if definition will, should you don’t make it work, anyway, seek out value we’ll go off and set up for money. another school. There will be loads of barriers to entry but there may still be a dynamic there that encourages that type of thinking. Should we get more from teachers? We heard an example, I can’t remember the exact figures but it was something like between forty and fifty times more was spent on books in an independent school than in a state school. Before we compare the outcomes of state school teachers with those from independent schools have to remember the resource in Cheltenham, the fees for the school that you probably attended are probably four times as much per head … over £20,000 a year compared to the few thousand we get in our schools. So if you reversed the funding model and state schools got four times the 104 www.reform.co.uk Schools for the future / Reform funding they get now and independent schools had to work on a quarter the funding they get now, it might not take too many generations before the problem with independent schools was of under-performing and not meeting parental expectations. So we need to just be careful about that, my teachers work tirelessly and endlessly. Can we do it, can we get more for our teachers? Well we have to. We’ll rethink, we’ll regroup, we’ll come together because actually teachers are still driven by vocation in many cases. Also we have got in our care wonderful young people, the future of our country, and for many teachers it is still a privilege to walk with them on that journey from childhood to young adulthood. So can we? We have to, we will, because they only get one chance at a main education and teachers will be committed enough to get it right despite the funding cuts. That’s the hope and optimism that I have, the positive education that teachers will see the problems and find a way of overcoming them. Chris Davies: I’ll just add to that briefly. I think that’s right, I think that’s where Gill’s point about greater freedoms around terms and conditions becomes important because then you can have meaningful performance management rather than the cargo cult version of performance management that operates in most schools at the moment. I thought Dale’s exposition about the concept behind free schools was excellent. I don’t know if it is a convincing answer about what’s going to happen. The bit that Dale didn’t touch on was the flip side of what happens then with market failure because there will be free schools that do go under and they will have a cost associated with them and even more worryingly there will be the state schools, the still in local authority schools that really start to struggle and how do you deal with those financial issues? I’m pretty sure the Department and Ministers at the moment have no idea how they are going to deal with that. have a dialogue, he wants to stay in touch, he wants our help with thinking about these questions so what I would like to do is keep in touch with all of you going forward now, if I may, to keep inviting you to events like this, perhaps not always as big as this, often smaller than this and to be one of the centres of thinking in this crucial period about how we do improve the education system on more limited resources. So if Reform can do that it will be because people like you do want to give up your time to come so I am incredibly grateful. Thanks again to our sponsors, to PA Consulting, to Pearson, to Cambridge Assessment and of course to Microsoft because events like this do have a cost and they do take some resource to put on so you will find your commitment is essential but also you have been willing to come and engage and to help us understand these issues and you have knowledge which too often is ignored I think, so thank you so much for that. My last thank you must go I think to all of our speakers because we have had an incredible range, and all of them extremely strong presentations so thank you very much indeed. Andrew Haldenby: Great. At the same time as closing the session I am going to close the conference. Let me just say thank you so much to people who have stayed in full attention which is wonderful for an event like this. As I said, what we are going to do is transcribe it and send it to everyone here and also send it in to the Department for Education and the Treasury as part of our submission to the Spending Review. I think what Nick Gibb will think when he reads the transcript is that there are a hell of a lot of people out there who he should keep in touch with, who will help him not just on if you like the curriculum side which is clearly his personal passion but also on the resourcing side which we have just got into today. It hasn’t been front and centre in the debate on how to save money in education but it has clearly been on people’s minds, the leaders here. So he can draw on all that. Equally I think there is a slight sense, well a big sense today of people wanting to get on with it and not have another set of political initiatives coming in and that might just be a bit of a challenge for him because he wants to come in and make his mark, but that’s all right because the key thing is he wants to www.reform.co.uk 105 Public services and the deficit / Reform Public sector productivity / Reform Programme Reducing the deficit and improving public services Improving public sector productivity Public sector management A new era: the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the government Government as commissioner not provider? With Colin Barrow CBE, Aidan Connolly, The Hon Sir Roger Douglas, Alan Downey, John Fingleton, Allister Heath, Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP, Michael D M Izza, Bernard Jenkin MP, Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, Colm McCarthy, Tony McGuirk QFSM, John McTernan, Amyas Morse, Paul Pindar, Colm Reilly and Julie Spence OBE QPM 08.15 – 08.45 Registration and tea and coffee 08.45 – 09.00 Welcome and introduction Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Michael Izza, Chief Executive, ICAEW 09.00 – 09.30 Keynote speech A keynote speech by Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform As Minister for the Cabinet Office and Paymaster General, Francis Maude is responsible for ensuring that public spending is brought under control without damaging public services. Mr Maude will make a keynote speech setting out the Government’s plans for reducing the budget deficit and improving public services. 09.30 – 10.30 Improving public sector productivity A panel debate chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform All public budgets will come under increased pressure as public spending is brought under control. The good news is that the fiscal crisis presents an opportunity to drive innovation and productivity in the public sector. But how can more for less be delivered in practice? What can be learnt from those who are already cutting costs while improving quality? How will the front line of services have to change? Bernard Jenkin MP, Chair, Public Administration Select Committee Aidan Connolly, Chief Executive, Sodexo UK & Ireland Colm McCarthy, Chair of Irish Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes and Lecturer in Economics, University College Dublin Alan Downey, Partner and Head of UK Public Sector, KPMG 10.30 – 10.45 Coffee 10.45 – 11.45 Public sector management A panel discussion chaired by Greg Rosen, Consultant Director, Reform Reforming public services will involve reshaping the front line. Management is the key to a new era of greater productivity. A culture of poor performance management presents a barrier to those effective managers who do want to bring about change. What is needed is to transform the structure of our public services to support these leaders and to change the behaviour of the rest of the public service workforce. The key problems with current performance management structures and the changes needed to improve them will be discussed. John McTernan, former Political Secretary to Tony Blair Michael D M Izza, Chief Executive, ICAEW Tony McGuirk QFSM, Chief Fire Officer, Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service Julie Spence OBE QPM, Chief Constable, Cambridge Constabulary 11.45 – 12.45 A new era: the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the government A panel debate chaired by Lucy Parsons, Senior Economics Researcher, Reform The link between taxation and public services has been broken, with the expectation that the UK can have high levels of public spending for moderate taxes. The British public are waking up to the realisation that we cannot have it all. The fiscal crisis will give way to new era of smaller government and balanced budgets. But this will require a radical shift in people’s expectations of the services and benefits available to them, and clarity from political leaders over the role of government. Rt Hon Margaret Hodge MBE MP, Chair, Public Accounts Select Committee The Hon Sir Roger Douglas MP, New Zealand Finance Minister 1984-88 Colm Reilly, Head of Government Practice, PA Consulting Allister Heath, Editor, City A.M 12.45 – 13.30 Lunch 13.30 – 14.30 Government as commissioner not provider? A panel discussion chaired by Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform In the new era of fiscal discipline government will have to do less. What it does do will have to be done in different ways. This session will examine how the government can best deliver those areas of public services that it is responsible for. How can it become a commissioner of more public services, rather than a provider, and how would this improve value for money? What is needed to improve procurement capabilities in the public sector? How can the private sector help drive innovation in public services? Cllr Colin Barrow CBE, Leader, Westminster Council Paul Pindar, Chief Executive, The Capita Group plc Amyas Morse, Comptroller and Auditor General, National Audit Office John Fingleton, Chief Executive, Office of Fair Trading 14.30 – 14.45 106 www.reform.co.uk Close Closing remarks on the day’s discussions from Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform and Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform www.reform.co.uk 107 Public sector productivity / Reform Public sector productivity / Reform The Reform team – setting the agenda Improving public sector productivity Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform Lucy Parsons, Senior Economics, Researcher, Reform The October Spending Review will set out unprecedented cuts in departmental spending. These cuts will not be pain free. They will be felt by public sector workers, by users of public services and by recipients of benefits. But done in the right way, they could lead to better public services and sustainable public finances. The October Spending Review will see all public budgets come under increased pressure as public spending is brought under control. There is a right way and a wrong way to cut public spending. As Ruth Richardson – who eliminated a deficit in New Zealand between 1990 and 1993 – has warned, “eliminating waste and salami-slicing existing budgets tend to be the politician’s stock answer, but none of these approaches go to the heart of the problem”. The right way involves structural reform to allow services to offer value for money. Improving public sector productivity requires a radical redesign of public services. Reducing the deficit and improving public services is a huge challenge. But it can be done. Reform is bringing together leaders from the public sector, from private sector organisations and from New Zealand and Ireland who have successfully improved the quality of services and increased fiscal credibility. Their lessons will be welcomed as the UK sets out to restore its economic and fiscal position. This approach will not be possible without good public sector management. Reform has spoken to good managers in the public sector. They are acutely conscious of costs to the taxpayer and want to be held personally accountable for performance. But they do this despite the system, not because of it. Accountability to the users of services to local electorates or to Ministers will improve management and performance. Kimberley Trewhitt, Researcher, Reform Greg Rosen Consultant Director, Reform Reform will also require a redrawing of the boundary between state and individual responsibility. The link between taxation and public services has been broken, with the expectation of the British public that the UK can have high levels of public spending for moderate taxes. The fiscal crisis will give way to a new era of smaller government and balanced budgets. Individuals will need to take greater responsibility for things like their healthcare, their post-retirement savings and their choices over higher education. In this new era of fiscal discipline, what the state continues to do it will need to do in different ways. Many of the UK’s public services are still provided as state-run monopolies. This means that they have weak incentives for better management and lower costs. Government should more often limit its role to funding public services, rather than both funding and providng them. Government as commissioner not provider will lead to an improvement in quality and a reduction in costs. As policy makers turn to the October Spending Review, they need to focus on the difference between cuts and reform. The traditional British response to a deficit crisis is to reach for the salami-slice – that is, to leave the structure of public services intact but shave off a pay increase here or a benefit increase there. George Osborne wielded the salami-slice in his emergency Budget, for example through a public sector pay freeze. But such an approach leaves the structural causes of inefficiency untouched. What successful companies and successful countries do is to change the whole business of service delivery, securing savings and better performance for the long-term. Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Bernard Jenkin MP Scrutinising value for money in Whitehall As Chairman of the Public Accounts Select Committee (PASC), how the Coalition Government delivers greater productivity in the public sector will be a key part of my brief and we will be scrutinising the Government’s progress very closely. Measuring public sector productivity is still a developing area, given the difficulties in 108 www.reform.co.uk defining some of the outputs that the public sector produces, but scrutiny of it is long overdue and improving productivity has now become an imperative rather than a luxury. PASC’s work in this area is likely to focus on two key areas. The first is doing “more with less” and the second is “doing less with less”. “Doing more with less” will become a mantra over the course of this Parliament and PASC will be in a prime position to focus attention on the Government’s efforts to both improve efficiency and to promote innovation within Whitehall and throughout the public services more generally Before the election, PASC heard evidence that there remained significant fat still to be trimmed in the public sector. The Committee also heard that as time goes on it will become increasingly difficult to find efficiency savings. PASC will be scrutinising the role of the Efficiency and Reform Group within the Cabinet Office which has been tasked with finding more efficiencies and disseminating best practice throughout Whitehall and beyond. PASC has already identified three key elements for achieving efficiency savings and I hope to be working on each of these during the coming months and years. They are political support effective processes and Civil Service capacity. PASC has already identified a need to provide better in-house training for the Civil Service to avoid expensive outsourcing, and also a need to remove underperforming staff more quickly, rather than simply shuffling them to another part of government. As important as improving efficiency, however, will be innovation. PASC will want to look particularly at innovations such as free schools and reforms to the welfare system, but also at the effects on productivity of the plan to publish more data on government spending in individual areas. Finally, PASC will be looking at the experience of countries like Canada, Ireland and Sweden, to see how “doing less with less” can be achieved and what the likely impact will be of government withdrawing from areas in which it is currently involved. Bernard Jenkin MP, Chair, Public Administration Select Committee Alan Downey Payment for success Public sector organisations are facing unprecedented cuts in funding. If these are implemented without fundamental change in the way public services are managed and delivered, the consequences will be severe. Valuable front line services will be damaged and inefficiency will continue to be endemic. It does not have to be like that. We have an opportunity to address problems that have become increasingly apparent over the last 30 years. If we grasp the nettle of reform, we can make the required savings without compromising the most important public services. We can implement a model of public service delivery that will drive continuous improvements in productivity, yielding benefits long after the economic crisis has passed. It is clear that the current approach has failed: • We are paying a lot more for our public services, but the extra money is buying less. According to the Office for National Statistics, productivity in the public sector declined by more than 3 per cent between 1997 and 2007. • There are huge variations in efficiency across the public sector. If the average UK public service provider were as efficient as the top quartile there would be a 20-30 per cent saving. • Instead of challenging public service providers to do more for less, through tougher prices and greater freedom to respond, we have tried and failed to manage the efficiency problem from Whitehall. • Public sector funding is far too “sticky”. Once providers have funding, they tend to keep it and have it increased every year. Attempts at public sector reform have failed to link good ideas with financial consequences and vice versa. • Performance management has improved significantly, but has focused on eliminating the worst performers rather than liberating the best to thrive and grow. • Public service reform has not been radical. The underlying structure and culture of public service professions, institutions and management have not been fundamentally challenged. www.reform.co.uk 109 Public sector productivity / Reform • Performance management has, in most cases, been undermined by its disconnect from financial management, which remains poor in many parts of the public sector. To address these problems, we need to move from “payment for activity” to “payment for success”. By focusing on three simple principles, we can effect an historic improvement in the way public service providers are incentivised and rewarded: 1.Three distinct customer roles should be created for each of the different types of service – personal, local and national – with each of the customers radically empowered to decide what they want and from whom. 2.“Payment for success” should be implemented across the public sector without exception. Where it exists already, it should be made more forceful and sophisticated; where it does not exist, it should be introduced rapidly. 3.Public service providers should be given almost total freedom to respond effectively to their customers and the “payment for success” regime, supported by the active divestment of public sector staff into independent providers in control of their own future. Alan Downey, Partner and Head of UK Public Sector, KPMG Colm McCarthy Tough lessons from Ireland The macroeconomic downturn in Ireland is more severe than in almost any other European country. The budget deficit, excluding the Exchequer cost of the banking collapse, has gone from near zero in 2007 to 11.5 per cent of GDP in the current year, despite fiscal cutbacks 110 www.reform.co.uk which commenced in July 2008. The banking collapse has been system-wide – every single domestic credit institution required rescue, several collapsed altogether, and the total cost to the taxpayer could approach 20 per cent of GDP. Since the first quarter of 2008, real GNP has fallen 17 per cent and the unemployment rate has gone from under 5 per cent to 13 per cent. Ireland’s sovereign borrowing costs have risen sharply and the AAA credit rating has been a casualty. If the medium-term fiscal consolidation is delivered by 2014, the exit ratio of gross debt to GDP could be around 100 per cent. Government fiscal actions included expenditure reduction packages in July 2008 and January 2009 as well as full Budgets in October 2008, April 2009 and December 2009. The cumulative impact has been to stabilise the underlying deficit at a level which is acknowledged to be unsustainable, but it is clear that without these measures access to sovereign credit would already have been lost. The government intends to cut the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP by 2014. Without the banking collapse Ireland would have experienced a deep contraction, but the creditfuelled property bubble has made things considerably worse. It came on top of a steady decline in competitiveness since 2000, an excessive reliance on volatile property-related tax revenues and a high Euro exchange rate. Fiscal adjustment to date has included tax increases, public service pay cuts, reductions in social welfare payments and restrictions on programme expenditures. The Special Group report made extensive proposals for streamlining public service delivery, including the abolition of quangoes and the merger of those which survived. Public service numbers have not declined noticeably despite recruitment embargoes and progress has been limited in Public sector productivity / Reform public service re-structuring, to which there is trade union opposition. Politicians have shown readiness to contemplate unpopular tax increases and expenditure cuts to a degree which has been contrasted favourably with fiscal consolidation efforts in other European countries, but reform is a slower process, and cannot quickly be dictated from the top. Immediate expenditure savings do not always follow restructuring, but can absorb ministerial time and deplete political capital to a degree which, perhaps paradoxically, can make reform a low priority during periods of fiscal austerity. Colm McCarthy, Chair of Irish Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes and Lecturer in Economics, University College Dublin Aidan Connolly Breaking the cultural inertia in the public sector The gaping £156 billion hole in the public finances will not get filled by burying our heads in the sand and so we broadly welcome the strong medicine prescribed in the new Government’s Emergency Budget. The headline 25 per cent cuts to spending by nonprotected government departments are, frankly, needed to bring the books back into balance, but the manner in which the cuts are made will be absolutely critical. Salamislicing this deep will risk causing serious damage to public services and risk delivering “much less for much less”. If “more for less” is to remain an achievable goal, the public sector must have the courage to be radical in reforming how public services are delivered. Whilst there are beacons of excellence across the UK, all too often we see wide variation in performance standards – in productivity, in consistency and in outcomes. Outsourcing can have a critical role to play in driving transformational improvements in public services. Simply opening up a service to competition can in itself drive cost savings and innovation. Tapping into the accumulated experience of third party providers can help to re-think the way things are done. At Sodexo, for example, we can draw on our many years of supporting clients across private and public sectors in 80 countries in responding to challenges, no matter how large No example illustrates this better than our recent experience with the £12 billion Defence Training Review for the Ministry of Defence. Through building a consortium of “best in class” companies, we have developed an integrated solution for a brand new military training estate that will deliver world-class technical training, whilst at the same time releasing over 1,100 military personnel back to front line duty and saving at least £500 million over the project’s lifetime. So outsourcing can bring tremendous benefits. But we were lucky to have a Ministry of Defence client with a sophisticated approach to procurement. Elsewhere in the public sector it is still too common to find a risk-averse, prescriptive approach which inevitably creates a race to the bottom at the expense of quality and innovation. Fine for cost-trimming, but no good for paradigm shifts. To really deliver on the quantum of spending cuts required, the ultimate obstacle is not the potential of the private sector to help, but the cultural inertia in the public sector to do things differently. Aidan Connolly, Chief Executive, Sodexo UK & Ireland Public sector management Voters were told by all Parties that while cutting the deficit they would safeguard the “front line” by securing savings from efficiencies and waste. Yet barely weeks after the Coalition takes office there is already speculation that the Home Office budget will be reduced simply by axing thousands of police officers. What could be more front line than that? History shows that no government has achieved the holy grail of protecting the “front line” while cutting costs purely through slashing waste and boosting efficiency. Sometimes this reflects a failure of ministerial will. More often, Ministers have simply failed to recognise the fundamental changes needed in public services and the operation of Whitehall to enable real improvements to take place. Margaret Thatcher’s Government was most publicly engaged in the quest to cut waste, but it too found it more convenient to salami-slice and to cut capital investment than to achieve real efficiencies. The mechanisms to enable Ministers to identify where efficiencies could actually be found, such as through better performance management of public servants, were simply insufficient. And Ministers failed to invest the time to build them for their successors. Will this Government do any better? Greg Rosen, Consultant Director, Reform John McTernan The punch-bag of lazy politicians Michael D M Izza Fiscal responsibility Public service managers are the punch-bag of the lazy politician or commentator. How often have we heard the absurd and inaccurate statement that “it is shocking and shameful that there are more managers in hospitals than there are beds”? A cheap attack is all too often a substitute for clear analysis. The reason is that sadly most mainstream politicians have an inadequate understanding of the role of management in modern organisations and the crudest of theories of motivation and execution. This is not surprising given the backgrounds and experience of the political class, but can be disastrous when married to their “heroic” model of leadership – that is, their own. Public services in the UK have become increasingly good at incremental change – particularly when their consumers have been empowered by choice and as providers they were challenged by new private and voluntary competition.Today, what is needed is transformational change. Powerful public service leadership, at senior and middle management levels, will be essential, as will a high degree of operational skill. We need a new language to recognise and reward genuine achievement in public service management. At the same time we need tougher and swifter action to remove bad managers. Not only will they fail to deliver the transformative change that we need to see in services, they demotivate staff, reducing productivity and quality of service. At ICAEW, we believe that encouraging greater fiscal responsibility in government will only be possible through informed public debate and a spirit of collaboration across government, the public sector and society at large. Crucially, this dialogue requires a clear understanding of both the costs and the value of public services ICAEW members – over 4,000 of whom work in the public sector – have a key role to play in advising and encouraging this public debate. We recently asked for their views on what scope there is to deliver better value for taxpayers’ money. The results suggest that there is room for manoeuvre. Over 80 per cent of public sector members interviewed believe that further efficiency savings could be made in their organisation without affecting the current level of service they provide. The scale of possible savings is significant: 34 per cent of respondents believe that between 2.5–5 per cent of discretionary budget could be saved; 24 per cent cite possible savings of between 6–10 per cent; 7 per cent cite possible savings of over 11 per cent. Improved use of IT and reduced staff headcount costs are viewed as the major opportunities for efficiency savings. The overall message is that there is scope to spend public money better. The Government has an opportunity move beyond simple salami-slicing of public expenditure to take forward cost reduction in a strategic manner that best delivers value for taxpayers’ money. The expertise of public sector finance professionals will be critical in order to achieve this. John McTernan, former Political Secretary to Tony Blair www.reform.co.uk 111 Public sector productivity / Reform Ahead of the Comprehensive Spending Review, the ICAEW is calling for greater civic and parliamentary accountability of public expenditure and for spending decisions to be based on clear, transparent statements of costs and objectives. We suggest that all legislation and major spending programmes should be accompanied by clear business cases, linking proposed costs to statements of what it is that the government hopes to achieve. At an early stage of development, major departmental spending programmes could be referred to respective select committees, encouraging Ministers to justify the relevant expenditure on the basis of the business case. Parliamentarians, in any case, should have access to the financial expertise and resources they need to provide effective scrutiny. We hope that the accountancy profession can play its role in helping build understanding about the current state of public spending. Only through a shared awareness of the financial difficulty we face, and of the opportunity for meaningful reform, will we be able to take the necessary steps to restore our public finances in the long-term and create a culture of genuine fiscal responsibility in the UK. Michael D M Izza, Chief Executive, ICAEW Tony McGuirk QFSM An approach for the future It has been clear for some time that the legacy of rescuing the banks from collapse has been an unprecedented level of government borrowing. To 112 www.reform.co.uk repay the debt, the national and local government will have to find savings and make cuts on a scale that is unparalleled. And now a new coalition Government is established, the “phoney war” of an election is over. Many observers are having a field day as they wave their cloaks of doom and compete to guess how savage and farreaching the cuts will be, without beginning to offer a practical solution. This type of doom-laden posturing in an attempt to avoid change and modernisation is an anathema to the leadership of Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) where we have determinedly stayed fixed on radically developing the scope of the Service through very difficult financial times and not succumbing to self-pity when times get hard. With that experience, we believe it is a perfectly reasonable expectation of government that leaders in the public sector should be looking to work with government to face this challenge and still deliver great services to the community, particularly those most in need. The leadership experience in Merseyside could be of significant use to this emerging coalition. In the last eight years we have finally tackled deepseated structural and cultural problems within the fire service that had defied change mainly, ironically enough, as everything before had been measured in terms of the numbers of firefighters employed. Over the last eight years we have enjoyed our most successful period ever with some of the largest reductions in fires, fire injuries and fire deaths of any FRS in the UK and we find ourselves in the unusual and slightly unsettling position of being nationally and internationally recognised as a leading FRS. All this has been achieved whilst reducing the number of firefighters by nearly 40 per cent from over 1,500 to less than 900. Tony McGuirk QFSM, Chief Fire Officer, Merseyside Fire and Rescue Service Public sector productivity / Reform Julie Spence Performance standards Who should decide the performance standards that public services work towards? That’s easy: the public, of course. But do the public really know enough to set the standards and is it feasible to deliver what they want or will it result in inequalities for those less able to make their case? The pragmatic middle ground is for a partnership between the public and the professionals – where the professionals give advice and leadership on possibilities and consequences and help the public to set informed standards. So yes, the new political landscape of local accountability would seem to hit the spot. That said, can “X-shire” sit in splendid isolation? If there is to be a culture of continuous improvement, a benchmark for services based on their cost and results must be set. Consequently real public value needs local services to be set within a national framework – or do they? A key consideration for all mangers is the prevention of perverse behaviours and outcomes in which public sector staff are more concerned about chasing any targets or achieving the public or government standard. The motivator is getting approval from politicians, the media and leaders rather than delivering better services the public value The challenge is to enshrine public service in its truest, sleekest, most efficient form. In this time of deep cuts this is even more important as difficult decisions will be needed and taken about what services can be delivered and to what level. All public sectors are currently considering what exactly will we be left to performance manage? Will standards need to flex? Will we stop doing some things? For example, can we really stop the police service being a 24/7 social service? Particularly as the consequences of cuts biting in other sectors will manifest themselves on the streets. The time has come to review the necessity of legislation such as data protection, freedom of information, health and safety and so on, that create industries in all public sectors and ask if the value and safeguards given are commensurate with the cost of compliance. We need a rethink on how to achieve the safeguards without the bureaucracy. I would suggest that life has risks but we are over-engineering the risk reduction. Removing these costs will enable public services to concentrate on their core businesses and allow for a wider range of services to be performance managed. Ultimately those that pay for public services must decide what they want from their services. But professionals must play their part, by explaining the “art of the possible” and the available choices, risks and consequences. Julie Spence OBE QPM, Chief Constable, Cambridge Constabulary A new era: the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the government In the UK, we want to have it all. In the surveys done in the run up to and following the General Election, when asked if we need to tackle the deficit with spending cuts, members of the public have answered yes. But when they are then asked if that means cuts in the health budget, they say no. Less spending on schools? Of course not. A smaller welfare system? Absolutely not. This is not surprising. The huge increases in public spending over the last decade have not been matched with a similar rise in taxes. People have seemingly come to believe that ever increasing benefits and public services can be made available to them at little or no extra cost. The result is a soaring level of debt and what will be a period of real pain as the country adjusts. The new era of balanced budgets will require a shift in people’s expectations of the services and benefits that government provides, and the costs associated with them. Individuals will need to take more responsibility for things like their health and their post-retirement income. Politicians will need to provide leadership, explaining the tough choices ahead. Lucy Parsons, Senior Economics Researcher, Reform The Hon Sir Roger Douglas MP Reform New Zealand Style New Zealand’s experience provides an important insight into the nature of political consensus. The fact of the matter is that the interests of the various groups who will be affected are complex and diverse. None of them welcome the idea that their privileges may be removed. Consensus in these circumstances for quality decisions does not arise before they are made and implemented. It develops progressively after they are taken, as they deliver satisfactory outcomes to the public. Important lessons from New Zealand include: • Only quality reform delivers the results that a country needs. • Do not try to advance one step at a time – quantum leaps will be required where you remove privileges of various groups all at one time. It is simply harder for them to complain this way. • Speed is essential. • It is uncertainty, not speed, that endangers the success of any reform programme. • Let the dog see the rabbit. People cannot cooperate with the reform process unless they know where it is heading. • Never underestimate the public ability to buy into a well developed programme. • Take the public along with you. Tell them: • What the problem is and how it arose. • What damage it is doing to their personal interests. • What your own objectives are in tackling it. • How you intend to achieve those objectives. • What the costs and the benefits of that action will be. • Why your approach will work better than other options. • Don’t blink, public confidence rests on your composure. • Incremental policies are useless when you have a fundamental structural problem. • Politicians need to keep clearly in front of people what reform policy is designed to achieve for them. The Hon Sir Roger Douglas MP, New Zealand Finance Minister 1984-88 www.reform.co.uk 113 Public sector productivity / Reform Colm Reilly Creating a thinking economy It is a critical time for the UK economy and for our public services, and the Government’s main focus has, understandably, been on tackling the deficit. Clearly that is a vital and necessary task, but we also should take this opportunity to look beyond the narrow question of whether we invest or spend more. We know we need to spend less, but we should be looking at how we build a different kind of economy and, with it, a different model of public service delivery. This process could be described as creating a “thinking economy”, in which we assess the real levers of change within our society. These are unlikely to be grand programmes of change but will be focused policy changes that help people to take ownership and accountability for service provision at a local level. The “Big Society” concept outlined by the current Government can perhaps, be seen as an initial attempt to address this issue. However, more clarity is now needed on the specific levers that can be deployed to create that kind of society and to reform the way public services are delivered. Driven partly by the pressures on government spending, there is now a real clamour for transformation, reform and even revolution in the way government operates. The default position is that the whole of government needs overhauling immediately.Yet this is too simplistic a starting point. Government is a large organisation with varying levels of capability and this kind of generalised drive for reform is likely to be unachievable and counter-productive. What we need to do is to reframe the debate so that reform is focused across government departments and not just within them. Equally, there should be a recognition that successful reform in government is achieved incrementally, when small steps are taken and where, over time, all these changes consistently build on one another. This should be accompanied by the development of a real understanding of where services need to be centralised and where localisation is a viable option. This would result in a balanced government where these options are seen as complementary, not contradictory – not total centralisation and not total localisation but a balanced, co-ordinated approach that recognises when government must be central and when it has to be local. There are five key areas where this process could start “While there is a broad consensus that the budget deficit needs to be reined in, there are plenty of influential commentators who argue that spending cuts at this time would endanger the recovery, hurt Britain’s long-term fiscal and economic prospects, send unemployment soaring again and hit the poor disproportionately. I’m not convinced by any of these claims: it seems that the opposite is true and that the UK can no longer afford to live beyond its means, with the state borrowing vast amounts of money to finance a badly managed and oversized public sector. It is not moral or progressive to borrow as if there were no tomorrow, shackling unborn generations with massive bills and risking a continental-style sovereign debt crisis.” City A.M., 22 June 2010 Allister Heath, Editor, City A.M. 114 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform and where real benefits could be achieved. The first is in combining centralised procurement and localised purchasing. This would see government centralising sourcing and procurement (contracts and catalogues) whilst putting purchasing in the hands of local organisations. This combination approach could apply across all of government and could yield savings of billions without impacting front line services. The second area of focus is on improved performance management. The previous government had a very clear focus on particular targets and that approach is now being reassessed, but whatever the new policy framework, those delivering it will need a performance management framework. A clear objective process and giving people clear goals can be a very effective driver of change. The next area to address is government spending on Information and Communications Technologies (ICT). It is currently too high and is not delivering the outcomes it should in the current demanding climate. It is vital that the role of ICT in public service provision is reassessed dispassionately without the distortion of the self-interested view of suppliers, who all too often capture public sector procurers. The confusion in ICT projects is the most visible manifestation of lack of clarity in the specific government objectives and plans. A broader challenge lies in the need to tackle public sector pensions. Government has recognised the problem but a radical approach is needed which builds a new social covenant. In this, workers and taxpayers are gaining a new understanding of their roles and responsibilities. Addressing this issue will reduce direct costs but it will also help to involve more private sector companies in the government supply chain (including front line services). Finally, the government needs to look at creating a new “enterprise” infrastructure that will support the development of all types of enterprise, ranging from entrepreneurs to large companies and rebuild our attractiveness as a location for real foreign investment – not simply investment that acquires assets but investments that develop and sustain employment and value added within the economy. This will be essential if we are to meet the requirements for economic growth, which will be as important as cost reduction in cutting the deficit. In times of crisis, it is hard to create the space to think radically but now, more than ever, we need to take the time to think about the reforms we need to put in place to create an economy and a public sector which truly meets our future needs. Colm Reilly, Head of Government Practice, PA Consulting Government as commissioner not provider? As the physicist Ernest Rutherford once said, the money has run out so we have to think. Government will have to do less; and what it does do it will have to do better and at a lower cost. Yet our public services suffer from major structural issues that prevent them from delivering value for money. Many services are still provided as state-run monopolies, which means that the incentives are all wrong. Consequently the increases in spending over recent years have not been reflected in a proportionate improvement in outcomes. The right kind of reform will address the structural causes of inefficiency. Government should more often limit its role to funding public services, rather than both funding and providing them. This would mean opening up the supply of services. It would also mean putting money back in the hands of consumers and giving them incentives to save money when they purchase government services. This will give us what we need: better quality at a lower cost. programmes in the city. We take a neighbourhood-focused approach to delivery and use a consortia of social enterprises who have the local know-how and expertise to understand the complex needs of our clients and help them back into work. In the future, we have ambitions to expand this model to oversee all statutory as well as discretionary spend. To make this work in more service areas, and in more councils, there are development implications for local authorities. The traditional bureaucratic approach to procurement will be a significant barrier to a thriving, local social enterprise market. An element of risk will always be present in relinquishing direct control over public services, but there is much that local authorities could learn from the private sector. Colin Barrow CBE, Leader, Westminster Council Paul Pindar The Spending Review – an opportunity to unleash enterprise in public services Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Cllr Colin Barrow CBE Big ambitions in Westminster Too often in the past local government has chased government grants, trialling initiatives here and there as long as there is a pot of money up for grabs. This approach doesn’t take a strategic view of local need, nor does it consider what forms of service provision will deliver local outcomes. Often, a trial finishes and the money goes, but the service continues because it’s now deemed to be essential. The result is that local government gets bigger and bigger. Westminster City Council recognised some time ago that the public services of the future had to change and would not necessarily need to be delivered by local councils. In October 2009, we re-organised ourselves, creating a commissioning council to analyse and understand the overall needs of the city and commission the services required to meet these needs. In order to maximise the public funding available, we mapped the totality of public spending in the city.We now know how much is spent on public services in Westminster and what the money is spent on. We also know what demand there is for particular public services. This confirmed the need for a joint commissioning approach. One successful area in practice is our efforts to tackle worklessness. Our Westminster Works Board brings together all the key public sector commissioners with an interest in reducing worklessness, including representatives from the local authority, the NHS and Jobcentre Plus. The commissioners jointly agree the areas of greatest need and oversee the discretionary spend on employment and skills From the Coalition’s first few weeks in office, it is evident that the pendulum has swung from an era of “investment led” to “cost reduction led” public sector reform. During my 23 years at Capita, this is only the second time that I have witnessed such a change and tried to predict how Westminster and Whitehall will implement reform across the various public sector bodies. While many senior officials will not have had first hand experience of leading an organisation through a sustained period of cost reduction, there are relevant examples from other sectors of www.reform.co.uk 115 Public sector productivity / Reform 116 www.reform.co.uk and service quality can be delivered. This can be achieved either by discontinuing activity or by openly competing service delivery to gauge other prospective providers’ capacity to deliver savings and service level improvement.When all public, private and voluntary sector enterprises are being challenged to deliver more for less, now is the time for the most enterprising ones to step up to the mark. Paul Pindar, Chief Executive, The Capita Group Plc John Fingleton Competition and choice hospitals, even if they are performing badly. Where exit is impossible, the government should seek ways to allow new entrants, or existing market participants with a strong track record, to take over the management of these services. A number of public service markets already contain competing providers and yet the market does not work as well as it could. Where public services have only recently been opened up to choice some users may not be aware that choice exists, or may not be in a position to choose effectively. This can make the role of intermediaries in advising individuals very important. There is also an issue around ensuring competitive neutrality in markets which contain public and private sector players. Value for money could be better achieved by introducing a level playing field into this equation. Barriers to competitive neutrality include differences in tax and regulation, and incumbency advantages enjoyed by existing firms irrespective of whether they are delivered by private or public agencies. Both user choice and competition between providers need to function effectively in order to secure overall benefits for users. Enabling choice is important, but on its own is not enough. At the same time, potential competition between providers will not be effective unless users can effectively exercise that choice. Competitive pressure provides enormous incentives for efficiency and improving customer service. Properly executed, competition could help improve the quality and efficiency of UK public services. John Fingleton, Chief Executive, Office of Fair Trading Commenting on the second televised leaders’ debate: The UK Government public finances are precarious and reducing the public expenditure share of GDP is imperative. For the next decade the most urgent public policy question will be how can public services continue to meet people’s needs while costing less? Research recently commissioned by the Office of Fair Trading highlighted that choice and competition, when they well, can increase efficiency, improve the quality and range of services on offer and create a better allocation of resources. In the long-term it can also lead to greater innovation. However, the unique character of public service markets means the benefits of choice and competition are by no means guaranteed. In some cases, these mechanisms will simply not be appropriate; in others, careful design will be needed to deliver the beneficial incentives of competition. For public service markets to work well, the decline and even exit of less efficient suppliers is critical. But it can be very difficult, practically and politically, to run down or close down individual public service suppliers such as schools and “It was a case of ask not what you can do for your country; ask what the government can do for you. We live in a culture where most of the public wants to extract as many goodies as they can for themselves, rather than accepting the need for serious belt-tightening.” City A.M., 23 April 2010 Allister Heath, Editor, City A.M. Budget 2010 Taking the tough choices “A specimen Budget to be published tomorrow by the exciting and intelligent think tank, Reform… Reform outlines cuts that will spark a reflex of horror in most politicians. However, they also observe economic realities.” Simon Heffer, The Daily Telegraph REFORM the economy where savings have been delivered whilst also improving front line services. One relevant sector that has experienced huge cost and competitive pressures over the last decade is the life and pensions industry. Some long established and respected businesses have disappeared in mergers that have aggressively sought to reduce administration costs and boost returns for their policy and shareholders alike. At the same time, these policy holding customers have seen quantitative and qualitative improvements in the service received, benefiting from the convenience of checking the value of their policies and having queries answered online. Customers are either served immediately or in timescales that were unimaginable under the bureaucratic and paper laden processes of a decade ago. Firms like ours have worked collaboratively with clients to deliver these improvements, whilst also being able to reduce the annual cost of administering a policy from £30 to £13 over eight years. So how can public sector bodies with large scale operations drive similar value for money? It has to start with clear and decisive leadership, coupled with a keen commercial sense of how savings can best be delivered and by whom. A clear and consistent appreciation of the inherent and respective strengths and weaknesses of public, private and voluntary sector bodies’ delivery capability is crucial. Of course, there are areas of public services that must continue to be delivered by the state. There is no rationale for armed service personnel, police officers and those charged with safeguarding the vulnerable not to be on a payroll other than a state one. Policy making and commissioning or contracting activities, for example on tax, welfare and the environment, should always be “core business” for the Civil Service. For those Civil Service activities that fall outside of these “core” functions, October’s Spending Review needs to use a clinical lens to assess how savings Public sector productivity / Reform Budget 2010 Taking the tough choices Dale Bassett Thomas Cawston Andrew Haldenby Dr Patrick Nolan Lucy Parsons Nick Seddon Kimberley Trewhitt June 2010 “Charging patients a ‘token’ £10 could save the NHS £1.6billion by 2014, the centre-right group Reform said in a controversial report published today ahead of next week’s Budget.” Daily Mail “Experts cited by Reform, the think tank, say £20 billion could be cut [from the NHS budget] without harming patient services” Editorial, The Sunday Times Transcript Andrew Haldenby: Good morning everyone and welcome to this major Reform conference on reducing the deficit and improving public services. My name is Andrew Haldenby and I am the Director of Reform, which is an independent, non-party think tank whose mission is to find a better way to deliver public services and economic prosperity in the UK. Please do not be fooled by the rather prosaic title for this event – I admit that the creative juices were not flowing in the Reform office when we came up with this one. Underneath this prosaic title is the most sexy subject for this Parliament because the job isn’t just to reduce the deficit. Although that is essential, it would be just as big a mistake to treat the symptoms of the problem rather than the cause. A public sector pay freeze, a freeze in Child Benefit – these measures may cut the government budget, but they don’t address the structural reasons for inefficiency in the public sector, and in Reform’s mind those include weak accountability to the users of public services, an aversion to strong management, an aversion to the private sector and a kind of obsession, which is actually a kind of peculiarly British thing, that the government mustn’t just fund services – it must also provide them. Our idea behind this event today is that by changing the structural problems, we can not only reduce the deficit but also transform the performance of public services whilst keeping their costs sustainable over the long-term. These fundamental structural questions are what we are going to discuss today, so let’s quickly go through the programme which is in your brochure. Clearly I am absolutely thrilled that Francis Maude is able to give the keynote speech and I will introduce him shortly. The first panel session will ask how the public sector should respond to the deficit in the public finances. Underneath this prosaic The second will ask what needs to change title is the most sexy support the subject for this Parliament to outstanding managers in the public sector who are already achieving more for less. The third session will ask how policy makers can define and limit the role of government in the public sector. Lastly, the final session will ask how government can change its role from being the funder and manager of services to being the funder alone. If you look at that programme, I am very proud of the speakers that we have assembled today, and I am delighted as well that such a strong audience wanted to come and participate in this discussion – thank you very much for that. We are going to write up this event, transcribe it and send it to the Treasury as part of our submission to the Spending Review so what we will discuss today will feed in to this submission, and you will all get that document. Because this event has very generous sponsors, we have been able to do it properly for a big attendance and, more importantly than that, we will benefit from their intellectual capital. Aidan Connelly for Sodexo will speak on the challenge of the deficit; Michael Izza for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales will speak on the improvement of management; Colm Reilly for PA Consulting will speak on the new limits of government; and Paul Pindar of Capita Group will speak on government as commissioner not provider. I am extremely grateful for your support and also for the support of the London Stock Exchange, who have given us this facility today, and who do a huge amount to encourage the public policy debate. This is really very, very generous, so thank you. Before introducing Francis, I want to ask Michael Izza, the Chief Executive of ICAEW to give his opening thoughts. Reform has a long partnership with the ICAEW which is a huge benefit to us because Michael’s members are amongst the country’s leading experts, not just on the reform of taxation but also in the delivery of value in the public sector. Michael, can I just ask you to set the scene as you see it. Michael Izza: Thank you, Andrew. Minister, ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Andrew, I don’t think you need to apologise for the title of today’s meeting because I think it is effectively going to be the defining event of this Parliament, and it is probably going to affect everyone’s lives in this country. I am very pleased that the ICAEW has been able to support this event today to enable Reform, and indeed all of you, to get exposure to their thinking and for you to give some feedback. Together with our partners, the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, CIPFA, the ICAEW campaigns for transparency, accountability and good governance in the public sector. We do this not just because we think it is the right thing to do, but also to support the effective delivery of public services and to get value for taxpayers money. Let me start by saying that we do support the Government’s aim to reduce the deficit. The Chancellor laid out in his Budget statement in June that unprotected departments will face average real cuts of around 25 per cent over the next four years – very tough numbers. The reality of these cuts is going to be spelled out in a comprehensive Spending Review on Wednesday 20th October, but ladies and gentlemen, this is the time now for candour. After a sustained period of increased public expenditure, these budget reductions are going to cause major challenges for service delivery. Difficult and painful decisions will have to be made on the cost and value of public services. In the light of these challenges, I believe that all government departments must now be subject to a rigorous reassessment of their spending priorities. For its size, the NHS budget must also be subject to assessment. The evaluation of NHS programmes is necessary. Even if overall spending on healthcare is to be maintained, we should not allow any notion of ring-fencing to be a euphemism for continuing inefficiency. These are the difficult challenges that the public sector now faces. I don’t underestimate how difficult this will be, but I do believe it’s possible. Not only possible – I believe that properly focused and efficiently www.reform.co.uk 117 Public sector productivity / Reform managed public services will survive and improve. I am convinced from listening to our members who work in the public services, that savings can be made and front line services protected, so there is hope in these difficult times. We have the opportunity to lay the foundations for a secure and sustainable future for the public sector and public spending. To achieve this, the ICAEW believes that meaningful reform must be carried out on three fronts: on transparency, on accountability and on governance. On the first of those – transparency – if public services are to be improved while the deficit is cut then Ministers, public sector managers, Parliamentarians and the public must know how much is being spent and how well it is spent. This is currently not the case. It seems to me that in the centre of any big complex ICAEW is a strong of the dispersed organisation there supporter Treasury’s clear line of are some things that have sight alignment and to be rigorously controlled whole of government and they are pretty damned account projects, which aim to make public obvious really accounts more transparent and accessible. We are soon going to be producing a piece of research which also incorporates the liabilities over and above the headline sector debt already published by the Office for National Statistics. Only by establishing the full financial picture can Ministers and Civil Servants propose the complete remediation package. On the second of those topics, accountability, the current environment provide an opportunity to establish more effective public and Parliamentary mechanisms to scrutinise public spending so we welcome the increased scrutiny being planned by Ministers in the so-called star chamber of departmental expenditure. However, we believe this accountability needs to go further. We suggest that all legislation and major spending programmes should be accompanied by clear business cases linking proposed costs to statements of what the government hopes to achieve. At an early stage of preparation, departmental spending programmes could be referred to the relevant select committees. After all, scrutiny when the money has been spent is a little late. The final topic – governance. At the highest levels of Whitehall departments, fresh thinking and fundamental reform is needed; this is a specialist subject from our keynote speaker today. This is the only way to achieve more with a lot less. Departmental boards should be given a clear sense of strategic purpose. They should be responsive to the organisational needs and the priorities that they deliver to departments. I would say this wouldn’t I? But chief financial officers should also be key members of the leadership team, as they would be in the private sector. This is not the case currently in all government departments. Now, we all recognise improving public services while cutting the deficit will not be easy, but what is clear is that we need fundamental reform on how we manage, account for and justify every pound of public money that’s spent. Francis, I am very much looking forward to your thoughts on this matter. Ladies and gentlemen this is a conversation that doesn’t end when you leave the room today. It must continue, and we for our part intend to be very active and rigorous participants in it. Thank you. 118 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform Keynote speech by Rt Hon Francis Maude MP Andrew Haldenby: Let me introduce Francis Maude, the Minister for the Cabinet Office and the Paymaster General, having held that position in opposition since 2007. I’m not going to go through all of Francis’s CV because it will be well known to people here. Suffice to say Francis, you have thought about the challenge of increasing productivity at the highest level not only in politics including as Shadow Chancellor, but also in business. Now you are on the front line of this Government’s efforts, so I think we are all absolutely thrilled that you are able to be here today and we are very excited to hear what you have to say. Francis Maude: Andrew, thank you very much indeed. I am going to rattle through some thoughts and I’m happy to respond to any questions at the end.You apologised for the prosaic title given to this conference, well I always bear in mind what Governor Mario Quimo once said, he said “politicians, you campaign in poetry and govern in prose”. What I do is about the most prosaic end of government and it is really important. What’s going to be the governing theme of this Government? It is the necessity for fiscal retrenchment. We have inherited a situation where the government is spending £4 for every £3 in revenue just to keep the lights on, the pensions paid, teachers in schools.You can’t carry on like that; the money will run out and it is literally unsustainable. So there has to be change. The reality is that what necessity forces upon us goes with the brain of what social need requires. There has been much talk of our vision of the Big Society and I just want to say a word about that. The era of big government has come to an end, not just because the money has run out and the scope for just solving problems by throwing money at them has been exhausted because the money isn’t there, but also because it has been shown to have failed. The idea that for every problem there is a state solution has shown not to be the case and indeed in many cases the insistence that there is a state solution has itself exacerbated the problem. If I may venture a partisan thought, there was, during the last Government, some sort of sense that everything could be controlled from the centre. That somehow if you sat in the centre of Whitehall and pulled enough levers with enough vigour and twiddled the dials with enough subtlety and pressed the buttons frequently enough, then things would change, that all of these controls were magically connected to complex machinery, not just within the rest of government but within the wider public sector and eventually out into society itself. So if you have a problem, if you can see the social problem, what do you do? Well, you set up a website, you invest money – it’s always investment, it’s never spending – in an advertising campaign. No one bothers to measure what the results are of spending this money because in a way you are justifying it by what you are doing.You remember Sir Humprey’s politicians’ syllogism? It runs like this: something must be done, this is something, therefore we must do it. The something which came most readily to anyone’s hand in the centre of government was public money, until recently because now we know there isn’t any public money available. It’s easy to do, and actually finding solutions which do not rely on those easy somethings which come to hand is tougher. These are the tougher options, but they are the options which are both forced on us but are also likely to lead to a better society as well as a stronger and more vigorous economy. I want to say a little bit about what our approach will be. We do not believe that you can sit at the centre of government, pull levers and change everything. We want to be rigorously realistic about what you can do in the centre of government. I’m concerned with what central government does, what lies within the ambit of central government, government departments, executive agencies and quangos that are within that part of government which is accountable to Parliament. There is a much wider public sector beyond that. There are schools, there is an NHS – increasingly a variegated NHS, with multiple providers providing services to NHS patients, whether they are provided by NHS Foundation Trusts, conventional NHS Trusts, third sector providers, private sector providers, and we should increasingly be blind to the status of those providers. We should be concerned with their quality and the price but not with their status. Local government: should we be concerned with local government? Well yes, we should be concerned with it, but we should be repressing the conditioning which has existed in local government which impels or has impelled local government to be constantly asking questions of Whitehall rather than of their electors. I was struck some time before the election when a council leader asked me, “Francis, if you form a government after the election what do you want us to do?” To which my response was, I want you stop asking us what to do and I want you start asking your electors what to do and then do it in the best way and have an honest dialogue with your electors, and that’s what I came to say to you. That may not be very comfortable, because Our view is that you should actually a dependence on the centre is a put responsibility for the blanket. It is a delivery of public services comfort comfort zone, and as near to the people who none of us can be in a use the services as you comfort zone any more, so we are going can possibly get to be pretty rigorously concerned with what central government does because that lies within our power to change, it is our obligation to change it, we are accountable for what central government does and we’ll take that responsibility seriously. In the role that I have as Minister for the Cabinet Office, I am concerned that we have clarity about what the centre of central government does, and this is what I call the “loose-tight” balance. It is not an original concept; management consultants use the phrase, very expensively, a lot. I have nothing against management consultants, some of my best friends etc. But it is important for there to be clarity about what should be done at the centre, and it seems to me that in the centre of any big complex dispersed organisation there are some things that have to be rigorously controlled and they are pretty damned obvious really. Strategy, strategic direction, has to be controlled from the centre. In our system that’s the Prime Minister and the Cabinet, and actually acting collectively to a greater extent. One of the uncovenanted benefits of a coalition is that it automatically recreates cabinet government, so strategic direction, strategic communications and cash are pretty important, organising property so that one part of government doesn’t embark on a real estate reconfiguration that suits their desire and ambitions but militates against the overall interests of the government. Headcount, controlling headcount, which is pretty serious. ICT, a basic ICT infrastructure, not having 17 different gauge railways effectively running across the country, the big projects that carry reputational, financial and operational risk. Procurement of those things which are common across government, using the scale of government to force down costs. Some things to do with human resources, civil service management in our cases and I’ll have a little to say about that. These are things which have to be controlled from the centre, but everything else should be pushed away from the centre and it seems to me that the last government had this almost diametrically the wrong way round. They didn’t control a lot of those things which fall into my “tight” category. They didn’t control them well at all, and yet there were constant attempts to micro-manage delivery from the centre with a plethora of targets and public service agreements and monitoring and auditing and man marketing and regulation and guidance so that everyone here at the front line, you felt that you were, instead of being accountable to the people you were closest to and meant to be there to serve, the citizenry you were there to serve, you felt actually accountable to an enormously complicated set of relationships to the centre. This is wrong and doomed to fail because those dials and buttons and levers in the centre of government aren’t connected in reality to the machinery, or only so indirectly that you have no ability effectively to influence it. So our view of the “loose” part of the “loosetight” balance is that you should put responsibility for the delivery of public services as near to the people who use the services as you can possibly get and, as the NHS should be blind to the status of the deliverers, to the providers of those NHS services, we should be blind as to the nature of the deliverers of public services at the front line. One of the things that we want to see happen is the creation of mutuals, co-operatives, formed from groups of public sector workers who deliver public services, who can operate – and many will – in joint ventures with providers from outside. This will be a way of liberating them, empowering and liberating front line public sector workers to put into effect, influence very directly, the experience they have and the frustrations they have about how the services can be delivered, and then benefit themselves from doing it better. The taxpayer benefits from it being done cheaper, as I suspect it will be. The citizens benefit from it being done better. The staff benefit from having a more rewarding life and job. People do have views on the front line about how things can be done better. We issued a spending challenge three weeks ago to public sector workers asking for ideas on how to spend money better, how to cut costs. At the last count, there were well over 30,000 responses, and really good ones, www.reform.co.uk 119 Public sector productivity / Reform dauntingly good quality. I’m required to go through them seriously and implement the serious ones of which there are very, very many. People didn’t think this was a gimmick, as some of the more cynical newspapers suspected. They thought that this was serious – and it is – and they took it seriously and they put in to us lots of really good ideas as to how things can be done better. You felt there were a lot of people with a lot to get off their chests, and they have done so in our direction, which is good. So the “loose” part of the agenda. We think part of Cabinet government is that the departments become more autonomous. Secretaries of State will be held accountable for what their departments do and they will enhance the government by having stronger boards, chaired by Secretaries of State, with a strong group of non-executives, mostly from the private sector, who will have access through Lord Browne, the Government’s lead non-executive for the Prime Minister. That group will have the ability in extremis if they believe a permanent secretary is an obstacle to effective delivery, to recommend to the Prime Minister and the Head of the Civil Service that that permanent secretary should be removed. This has got not to be window dressing, not paying lip service, this has to be real improved government. Finance directors as well – we said that these should be the second most senior official in the department, and that they should have a strategic role. They should not be, as a finance director was quoted anonymously in the Institute for Government’s report earlier this year, a score keeper rather than a player, and the private sector finance directors should have a strategic role. In Whitehall, they are not even automatically involved in spending decisions, which is kind of insane. Elevating the role and the prestige and the authority of finance directors and the finance function in government is really, really important. So, what else can be done in encouraging the delivery? Well, departments and organisations can be flatter than they are. We still have a very, very hierarchical Civil Service, and these organisations can be flatter, which will not only be cheaper to run but will improve decision taking. Now decisions go up through endless layers and it treacles things up and slows them down, and we can tighten that. We can empower people, departments can empower people more at the front line, empower them to innovate and to do the sensible working level risk taking that we know is essential to progress being made. Our approach to risk is exactly the wrong way round; we take massive macro risks, piling reorganisation on total policy reversal casually, and yet at the micro level, at the working level where innovation, trial and error and finding new ways of doing things is the motor of progress, that is not encouraged at all. In fact, no one ever lost their job or had their career suffer from presiding over an inefficient status quo, and yet people who have tried to do something different which hasn’t worked – and most of the things that you try don’t work – but as long as you have got the right culture which encourages people to try and when it doesn’t work call it a day, you have the best kind of organisations. We can disencumber organisations within central government from some of the burdens of compliance, which I think we have already heard a bit about. I was 120 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform just hearing yesterday from the Chief Executive of English Heritage that the entirely laudable, in principle, requirement that public sector bodies should report on energy requirements means that they have to issue a report on the energy usage of a long barrow, whose energy usage is nil, and kind of obviously nil.Yet still somebody had to be employed to fill in that form and submit it to the centre. We can disencumber organisations. So, the “loose” part of it is actually about us enabling the organisations that deliver services to do it better, getting out of their hair and encouraging innovation and empowerment. A quick word about the “tight” part of the agenda and again, this is not glamorous, but it is important. Controlling cash is really important, and the Treasury does that by and large pretty well. We’ve said that no leases should be signed or resigned anywhere in central government without my personal approval, and again this is not my favourite bedtime reading, but it is kind of important and it imposes discipline. People will think twice before asking to sign a new lease, and it gives us at the centre the chance to say “well actually you don’t take that but you move in with these people here”, and we’ll save some money overall and have a better outcome overall. Head count – I was always surprised in opposition when I asked the question, at Prime Minister’s Questions, about the size of the Civil Service. The question got referred to the Office for National Statistics, as if this was a mildly interesting external phenomenon which the government sought to track out of politeness, but the idea that this was an essential management tool had apparently alluded them. One of the first things we did was to do a sweep and ask every organisation in central government what their head count was, not just the formal headcount on the payroll but temporary staff, agency staff, consultancy staff, embedded contractors. So we actually got a sense of what the headcount was, and the astonishing thing was how many organisations didn’t know. But they do know now, and we will continue to take an interest in that and indeed publish it, not as a statistical exercise, but as management information. Because of our concern with transparency and our desire for transparency, which is a large part of my responsibilities, we will make that information available to the public. ICT – again, boring stuff, but really important and a lot of money in it. We will exert much more central control so that you do not have every part of government thinking it has got to have its own data centre. The over-provision in data centres around government is massive, the usage is definitely in single digits and quite small single digits in terms of percentage. This is incredibly wasteful of energy and incredibly expensive, so we will start to get a grip on that. The basic infrastructure as well has to be, over time, unified. Big, complex organisations do not allow every part of their organisation to set up their own telephone system and email system. A bit of common sense there will help to save money and make things work better. The big projects. We are not saying that all big projects should be run from the centre, but there has got to be an ability for the centre to call in big projects where the department or agency that’s owning those projects has never done it before. I am all for on-thejob learning, but not at the taxpayer’s expense when there are huge risks and there is such a record of these big projects going badly wrong, costing too much and failing. Commodity procurement.Yes, paper clips and photocopier paper and travel and energy and all of those other things that the government spends. Central government alone spends £60 billion a year on goods and services from third party suppliers. Not much of that at the moment is aggregated and yet if you do aggregate it, you have the absurdity of discovering two government departments were bidding against each other for energy. This doesn’t make any sense, and so we will have a central mandate for procuring these things – not all done from the centre because there is plenty of serious expertise around Whitehall that is good at doing this, but it will be done on behalf of the whole government with a central mandate. Suppliers. For the first time we will be managing the relationships with the biggest suppliers to government on a central basis so we will aggregate what the big suppliers do right across government and tomorrow I have got a meeting with the chief executives of the 20 biggest suppliers to launch a process whereby we will be renegotiating with them across everything that they do for government to get the costs down. This is the experience they have had with their private sector customers during the recession and it will be no surprise to them. Part of that will be, yes we will want to have something off your margins, but part of it will be we will expect you to tell us how we can pay you less, some of which will be for doing less. Over specified contracts, many of them can be done for much less. The concept of the 80/20 rule is a relatively new one in some parts of government but it will become more familiar as time goes on. Finally, the Civil Service. I am a big fan of the Civil Service. I spent seven years in government previously and I have a huge regard for our system of politically impartial, permanent civil servants. Advancement on merit, and the public service ethos which underpins it is really important and I really respect it. I do worship at the shrine of NorthcoteTrevelyan and I am delighted that at last this year the Civil Service, in a slightly different form than was originally presaged in the Northcote-Trevelyan Report and 155 years late maybe, but hey, has got on the statute book and that’s good. But not everything is right in Civil Service at the moment and I sense that too often in recent years, civil servants have felt marginalised, partly because particularly in the early days special advisors interposed themselves to too great an extent between official advisors and Ministers, and partly because there was an over use of consultants. With anything difficult, no one could criticise you if you had a reputable firm of consultants in to do the work, but actually a lot of that work can be done by civil servants. They are really bright, capable people who like being stretched and who can actually pick up capability from doing these things. We will not only save a lot of money by the consultancy constraints we’ve put in place but we will also empower and encourage and re-motivate mainstream civil servants by doing this. We have to do some other things with the Civil Service as well and I announced yesterday that I have asked Sir Gus O’Donnell to look at the way we recruit into the fast stream, which is a very popular and good, strong graduate recruitment stream, but it is still seen to be too much about being a very clever policy analyst and advisor, developing policy. That is important, we need really good people, clever people to do that, but you also need to have, of at least equal importance, really first class management capability in the civil service, people who understand operational delivery. I have asked Gus to look at how we can widen the way in which the fast stream recruitment and development process is seen and its reality by giving at least equal prominence to those values and those skill sets. The other thing we announced yesterday was reforms to the Civil Service Compensation Scheme, because you cannot really have a sustainable system where in some cases civil servants who are made redundant are entitled to six and two thirds times their annual salary as a payment. This is out of kilter with anything else even in the public sector, let alone the private sector, besides which the statutory redundancy scheme looks absolute primeval, so this will not be popular with trade unions. But I think that the wider public will see that this is actually about rebalancing, about creating fairness out of the Civil Service and out of the private sector, and we will hope to start negotiations very quickly with the unions about some additional protection for lower paid workers in the Civil Service. It is sometimes ignored, that 50 per cent of civil servants earn £21,000 or less. This is not a uniformly fat cat environment at all and lower paid civil servants do deserve additional protection and they will have it. I think I have overrun my time and I am under time pressure to disappear fairly quickly, but thank you very much, Andrew, for inviting me to be here. It is very good to have the chance to unburden myself of some thoughts to this distinguished audience and I think we may have time to do a tiny Q&A, one or two questions but that will be about it. Thank you very much. Andrew Haldenby: What I might do is just take three or four comments as it were, and if you want to pick up on one or two that you think are the most important that would be great. So just some very short comments please. Audience Member: Can you give us a very, very quick update on the new Efficiency and Reform Group? Audience Member: I am very interested in the doing end of this, the balance between application and efficiency and local autonomy, particularly given the restraints in the public sector. Iain Anderson: Iain Anderson, Cicero Consultants. Francis, on the “loose-tight” balance, where do you think that balance lies right now given the need to achieve fiscal retraction that has already been set out? Francis Maude: One of the Ministers who was very effective was Michael Heseltine. He was then in the Department of the Environment and he said no vacancies are to be filled without my personal approval. I’ve done the same in the Cabinet Office. One thing, you get to know a hell of a lot about what’s going on in the Department and it is a very salutary discipline. Of course those sorts of www.reform.co.uk 121 Public sector productivity / Reform disciplines repress demand because people don’t necessarily want to expose what vacancies they are trying to fill. You asked about the Efficiency and Reform Group. What we’ve done is brought together all of these functions – property, procurement, projects, all of this stuff – into one place with a board chaired In really serious times like these, and these are really jointly by Danny the Chief serious times, you have to Alexander, Secretary, and myself, tighten the vice more, by with me kind of being hands on, I feel a bit like having things like freezes which you wouldn’t expect an Executive Chairman of it, probably to have permanently uncomfortably executive but there you go. And so the Office of Government Commerce, for example, which is a big part of this, and was part of the Treasury, we have now brought this together because there is a certain amount of overlap between some of these functions, and some of what we’re doing is simply trying to put dams across the river. So, a freeze on marketing and advertising spend, for example – all exceptions again come to me, and it will repress demand. We are not saying there can be no spend; that would be absurd, but it represses demand and it makes people think much more about what they are spending money on. The recruitment freeze, as I said, is coming through much more at the department level, a freeze on consultants, again at department level, all of these things where we require departments to exercise the controls, all have to be notified to the centre and we will publish. Again, the transparency is really important in focusing attention on all of this. I think I went through what are the things where we expect to have tight control and there should always be tight control over those things. It is just that in really serious times like these, and these are really serious times, you have to tighten the vice more, by having things like freezes, which you wouldn’t expect to have permanently, but you do expect to have controls which are pretty fierce at this stage and that will remain for the foreseeable future. Tim’s point about commissioning capability – well, we need to get better at commissioning and giving the centre of government the power in respect of central government and not in the wider public sector, to call in big projects where there may not be sufficient expertise in the owning department or agency. We hope to have a greater proper centre of excellence in procurement, commissioning and project management. I can see my team are getting more and more agitated here so I think I probably need to pack my bags and go at this stage. Andrew Haldenby: Well Francis, thank you so much for taking those questions and getting a feel of the room. On all of our behalf that was absolutely fascinating to get a sense of the intellectual framework that you are bringing to this and the “tight-loose” balance gives us a lot to think about for the rest of the day. Again, on all of our behalf, as you say these are extraordinary times and you are in the hot seat and I think you have all of our best wishes, so thank you. 122 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform Improving public sector productivity Andrew Haldenby: Let’s get into some of the meat of this and this session, Improving Public Sector Productivity, is really about the deficit. The UK faces an unprecedented deficit and how should the public sector respond? We have people here who know deeply and personally the answers to this question and I’m thrilled they will be able to give us five or six or seven minutes each and then we can open it up. We have Bernard Jenkin, the new Chair of the Public Administration Select Committee which he has been for … Bernard Jenkin: I’ve not actually been appointed yet. Chair Elect. Andrew Haldenby: Chair Elect for a number of days but particularly someone during the time in opposition has kept a close eye on many of the key spending departments. Aidan Connolly is Chief Executive of Sodexo in the UK and Ireland and he has been doing that since March 2009. Sodexo obviously delivers value across huge parts of the public sector and previously Aidan was CEO of a number of public and private companies both in the UK and overseas. Colm McCarthy, and here is a title which is even as prosaic as the title of this event, Chair of the Irish Special Group on Public Service Numbers and Expenditure Programmes which is also known in Ireland as The Group, and you can see why. This was the group set up by Brian Lenehan in Ireland in 2008 to undertake a six month fundamental review of public spending in Ireland, which led to this remarkable programme of activity which is now widely seen to have restored the Irish public finances and also restore their economy to growth so, Colm, we are thrilled that you are able to join us. Alan Downey is the Partner and Head of UK Public Sector at KPMG where he has worked since 1989 and held a number of senior roles and before that was a fast-track civil servant. So, Bernard, can I ask you to give us your thoughts. Bernard Jenkin: Thank you very much indeed and thank you Andrew, it is a great privilege to be on a platform under your direction and I congratulate you on the progress that Reform makes, it is having a big impact, particularly on the new government. Perhaps I should say a bit more about my background. I was shadow this and that, transport, defence, energy, regions, and I have watched various government departments and what one could describe as their skid marks as they try and make policy and make decisions. I spent a lot of time on the defence committee subsequently and messed with defence procurement, one of the most complex fields of policy I have really ever encountered, and I find myself now as Chair Elect of the Public Administration Select Committee. I guess I’m the guy who is chairing the committee which is going to assess Francis Maude’s performance because the Select Committee shadows the Cabinet Office; we’re the Select Committee for good government and we run the Ombudsman and the Charity Commission and one or two other things, extraneous things, but basically we’re interested in good government, good administration, good practice. We’re the management and people bit and the Public Accounts Committee do the numbers. Of course, there is quite a lot of overlap between what we do, we do cross governmental stuff. The situation we’re faced with, between 1997-8 and 2008-9 public spending increased in real terms by an average of 3.2 per cent a year, which was Innovation will be even more than double the more important than under previous inefficiencies in improving increase administrations productivity 1979-97. The productivity in the public sector was declining during that period on average by 0.3 per cent a year. The task facing the coalition government is to reverse these trends so that in a time of reductions in departmental spending productivity across the public sector rises. The adage of the day of course is doing more with less. Some think improving public sector productivity is impossible and, indeed, you are going to hear a great deal from a reinvigorated Labour party, which really loves being in opposition rather than making decisions, and the Unite union, describing productivity as a smoke screen for the acceleration of the privatisation of schools and health services. Before the election, however, PAC did hear evidence from witnesses that there remains plenty of fat still to cut from the public sector; you won’t be surprised, but the more fat you cut the more you run into the problem of diminishing returns. The government needs to root out existing inefficiencies but it also needs to rethink the way it expects the public sector to operate and I was quite intrigued to listen to Francis because he is doing far more orthodox and practical and obvious things than the Coalition has been talking about in opposition. I don’t think he talked about centralising purchasing when in opposition and I am very glad to hear he is talking about it now but we shouldn’t lose sight of the need to root out real inefficiencies. Innovation will be even more important than inefficiencies in improving productivity, it becomes less a factor in more with less and more about doing less with less and when you are looking at 40 per cent possible reductions for some departments, that’s clearly got to be the objective. PAC will be scrutinising how the cuts are made – I am looking forward to perhaps doing a whole inquiry – how does a government department actually prepare options for cuts in a department? We have all seen the sketches where the first thing that goes is the private office of the Secretary of State! There are three areas where real reforms are necessary and which could bring about tangible results and they are structures which need decentralisation. We’ve heard a bit about that already; training and pay and public sector ethos. Let’s just start with ethos because there has been much in the public sector debate over the last 20 years on how to make the public sector more like the private sector. Sadly I think the public sector has imported quite a lot of the attractive private sector practices like private sector pay and bonuses but we haven’t really imported the entrepreneurialism of the private sector. In fact if I say the words “public sector entrepreneur” it sounds like an oxymoron and we need to think about what really motivates people to come in to the public sector because I’ve got more words than I can deliver here, but the approach is that most people come in to the public sector because they feel that that’s what they want to do, it’s a vocation. A good head teacher or a good hospital manager wants to be able to deliver a good school or a good hospital and, actually, pay is of secondary importance otherwise they would be doing something else. If they were any good they’d be doing something else, yet we so often drive the best people out of the public sector, not because we don’t pay them enough, not because they don’t have a good enough pension but we drive them mad with the bureaucracy and interference and central control. The Guardian reported recently that it is increasingly difficult to recruit head teachers despite the average salary being £74,000 a year and scores of posts are being offered over £100,000 a year. More than a third of primary headships had to be readvertised in 2008-9 where it was just under 20 per cent in 1993 and the percentage of secondary posts being re-advertised had virtually doubled from the 1993 levels to 27 per cent. The Department responded with mystification saying parent training is now better than ever before, we have brought in ground-breaking measures to cut workloads and leadership teams have never been stronger in supporting heads. Well the Department of Children, Schools and Families idea of a leadership team specified, regulated, tick boxed, vetted – anybody who has sat on a school governing body knows exactly what I am talking about. In the private sector, school governing bodies act as non executive directors and they make sure they are around to fire the head teacher when something goes wrong. In the public sector you have curriculum groups, working groups and you get training and it is a sort of mechanism of indoctrination into public sector practice rather than a genuine involvement of what parents can contribute. I think the Department has failed to appreciate that targets, initiatives, mountains of paper from LEAs and central government, extra money with no discretion attached to it, dictats on an over prescriptive curriculum with less and less relevance to the needs of the child – all this is added to cost and creates frustrated head teachers. Every MP will have encountered a head teacher who will have put the pile of stuff they received There are just six layers from the LEA and the of management between Department on their desk and said that’s Sir Terry Leahy and the what I received just Tesco checkout cashier. this term. There was a How many layers of pile that high the last time I went into the management are there smallest school in my in the National Health constituency. I think Service? they had 80 pupils in this village, and she said, “I just don’t read it because I have to teach and actually that’s why I came in to teaching but I’m going to retire, I’m fed up with it, I can’t take the stress any more”. So freedom and responsibility in the public sector for managers is absolutely vital and this is what Francis is driving at when he says to flatter www.reform.co.uk 123 Public sector productivity / Reform management structures and the jargon you are going to hear about is the post-bureaucratic age. Why is it that IBM in the 1960s had 23 layers of management and today it has six? There are just six layers of management between Sir Terry Leahy and the Tesco checkout cashier. How many layers of management are there in the National Health Service? How many layers of management are there in the defence and support organisation at the Ministry of Defence? We need to listen to people like Bernard Grey who pointed out that we have got 25,000 people working in defence support, doing a not very effective job when what we actually need are 5,000 much better trained people pushing far fewer bits of paper around, doing a much better job. That will be much more efficient and much cheaper. All this will mean that we not only need to de-layer in the public sector but we need to change the processes because if the processes in the public sector stay the same, then the problems will stay the same. We need to change process and that’s what PAC tries to look at. It will make significant changes in the way the civil service operates, perhaps less resistant to external recruitment but more corporately confident, that’s what I’m hoping to see. The problem is not lack of talent as far as the Civil Service, which still attracts many of the brightest and the best, but it does need more training so they are taught how to deliver. The disease of the previous government, and this is not a political point but I think it’s an easy thing for a government to do, is do the initiatives and once you’ve done the press release you feel you’ve delivered the policy. The follow-through has been absolutely lousy and it is all those long pieces of elastic where nothing happens at the other end when you pull it, which is the bane of the present Whitehall structure. So in the face of departmental spending cuts, increasing public sector productivity has moved from a luxury talked about at conferences such as these to become an absolute necessity and we hope to play our role in exposing how this is done. Thank you very much indeed. Aidan Connolly: Morning, it is a real pleasure to be here. When I checked my diary I expected the room to be full of people with hangovers celebrating England’s win last night, including my own, but sadly not. Bernard and his colleagues, Francis, the new Chancellor, have all told us that we have a gaping hole of 150 odd billion, a number so large probably nobody can count, and it won’t get filled by burying our heads. I don’t think it will get filled either by doing more of the same. It is very encouraging to hear the Minister talk about how they plan to change things. From my own experience, my last role in a public company was in My Travel where I was one of the senior management team. We had the equivalent financial crisis that the government has and we took some very swift action and made some very unpalatable choices, getting rid of one in ten of our workforce, which was brutal. But, I think if you are going to make cuts you should make them quickly and deeper than you think because, in the long run, if you have to go back and do it again it is incredibly damaging, has a serious effect on morale and in a public company of course it destroys the share price. 124 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform I believe we can overcome the challenges we face as a country, I think we can achieve more for less, although perhaps I would put as doing less for less and achieving rather better outcomes. Maybe that means a radically different approach and I want to outline a little bit of what I think Sodexo can bring to the debate. We have some 25 PFIs; half my business is with the government. Let me If you are going to make point out a few road blocks which are having cuts you should make rather more practical them quickly and deeper effects on what happens than you think after the Minister makes the statement and who live with the negotiating teams in the field, rather than in a smoky basement office somewhere in the City. Some of you won’t know who Sodexo is. We’re a French company founded in Marseilles around 50 years ago and we are in the top 25 employers in the world, we have just under 400,000 staff and 33,000 of those in the UK. We do all sorts of things, many of you will think of us as a contract caterer but in fact we calibrate instruments, we manage office moves, we issue guns and ammunition to our armed forces and we rehabilitate offenders. I am reliably assured by my management team that we don’t do them all at the same time or indeed at the same place. So I think we have an interesting view on how the public sector operates and, indeed, its interface with the private sector and how we might work together to join the dots on a rather better basis. There are two big issues I want to talk about today. One is the government’s cultural inertia. A new government has come in with fresh ideas, though the government machine operates in an extremely convoluted way. The chain of command is unlike that in the private sector and indeed for those of us who buy services from the government and who sell services to the government, it almost seems guaranteed to deliver failure of outcomes. Because people are trying to protect their careers, there is a system that is enshrined around it ticking boxes to ensure that everybody is covered should a decision go wrong. Although there are many, many bright people in the civil service and indeed some of them are a real joy to work with, one of the frustrations we have as a private sector operator is that, should the Department choose to outsource, it often decides that it has the monopoly on all the good ideas. It is usually ultra cautious and, although the Minister and the press releases are all the saying it will be an outcomes based contract, when we have finished negotiating it it will be very much a risk avoidance contract and it will be huge. We worked with some of Bernard’s colleagues before the election to try and flesh out what they meant by transparency and I think one or two of them were surprised to know that a PFI contract would fill about a quarter of a room this size if it was all printed out. I’m not entirely sure what transparency would mean if we put it into the public sector but it would probably crash one of the government’s IT systems. I think one of the other issues in knowing what’s best for themselves is that they homogenise the competing providers’ services. It makes comparisons a lot easier but I think as a taxpayer I see it drive quality out of the door and it drives the price to rock bottom. Too often, when the Treasury talk about value for money what it means is procuring the least for the lowest and I’m not sure that that should be our approach to public services; we should be producing something we’re proud of, something we’re willing to pay for. I don’t think maximising the taxpayer pound necessarily means driving quality out of the window. So it’s a pity that this happens. I think we all understand career protection, the Civil Service at the moment is quivering behind its desks and everybody is wondering is they are part of the 25 per cent, indeed the 40 per cent or whatever number The Daily Mail prints this week. The irony of all the good intentions is that it often produces the worst outcomes and I’m not sure it really needs to be like that. We have a couple of experiences with the Department where we’re seeing something different. The MOD, which is ridiculed routinely by the Treasury and, indeed, is very embattled at the moment, and Bernard Grey’s report is indeed sad to read as it has many truths in it, but we are working with them on a defence training college down in Saint Athan, and we have some quite enlightened clients who are actually trying to achieve something that’s different, trying to achieve less for less but trying to achieve a great deal more in the outcome. Although this is a large process and will undoubtedly get called in by Ministers, it is £12 billion over 30 years, I think we both feel it is good value for money; it is operational expenditure and I’m sure that over the 30 years the £12 billion will turn into £11 billion. The impact on the economy of doing it is huge and I think the impact on the military covenant at a time when each day brings new need to actually deliver on the military covenant in Afghanistan, it will bring the military covenant back in to people’s eyes, giving people a better training environment, have better trained soldiers with transportable skills who at some point will come out into the economy and of course it will release more troops for the front line as well. From our point of view, as a service provider, it also lowered the cost of government building programmes which provide much better value for money for the infrastructure. The innovation in that contract comes in many forms. It comes from training the three services together for the first time on the same curricula. They all have diesel engines, why is there a diesel engine course for each service? It makes absolutely no sense and in industry we wouldn’t tolerate it. The new training techniques will not simply be delivered in a classroom to a bunch of people, they will be delivered all over the country electronically: we will start training people to deal with the digital battleground. The training environment when they encounter it when Saint I don’t think maximising Athan is built, a chalk the taxpayer pound cheese necessarily means driving and environment to quality out of the window anything they have ever experienced in their careers before and it should also help the military retain those skills for longer, retain people who are more highly trained and motivated and deliver a better outcome in the field. So when the benefits of outsourcing can be so obvious and in the UK, which has a pretty mature outsourcing market, it can be widely accepted as a way of driving improvements, it is something of a mystery why some public sector institutions don’t embrace it. As Bernard mentioned, the inconsistency in procurement skills, which as a business manager of course leaves me smacking my lips at the profit, but as a taxpayer makes me cry with frustration. The concept of negotiating a PFI with the MOD where all the major procurement officers are on a two year rotation and the project has already been done for eight years will lead you to understand some of the background inefficiency which surely must be sitting on their side of the table. I often feel that I’m operating with my hands tied behind my back. We know we could do so much better by sitting on both sides of the table and actually doing something in the public interest but of course procurement rules prevent you doing that. The other thing that really frustrates us is the inability to spread best practice across departments. We see a gulf in performance between certain departments and indeed between certain individuals. We see individuals rotated out of the role that they are absolute naturals for and indeed would be part of my team if I had the foresight to employ them. I just worry that that will change. It is encouraging to hear Ministers talking about some form of tight control over procurement and maybe aggregating some of it, but unless this is done we may well find that procurement retains huge inconsistency. We have I think a good record as an industry and I speak now for all the public sector businesses which supply services to government and I guess you’d expect me to say that but I think there are also times when the private sector probably isn’t the right answer and some services [inaudible] … mature approach to commissioning and a real understanding of the outcomes that people are trying to achieve. The private sector is the most likely provider of those services. I think the state will have to redraw the line. I think to achieve the scale and breadth necessary to deliver the transformational changes that are being talked about in the context of such a budget deficit, the government needs to really work out how it commissions and how it provides and it needs to work out then how to deliver across the two. We are very encouraged, and I speak not just for Sodexo but again for the private sector, by the idea that outcomes will become higher up the agenda. We think payment by results is an excellent methodology for public services but it very rarely occurs in practice. We are working on an outcome-based model at the moment in our prison in Peterborough, one of the PFI prisons that we run. We administer a social impact bond, I think the first of its kind – it is very small, a pilot, £5 million, where private investors are backing our prison regime with the result to rehabilitate offenders and are rewarded, the return for their investment is determined by the scale or lack of reoffending by the inmates. 70 per cent of the prisoners who go to jail for less than six months re-offend within two years and when you look at the under 21s, that figure goes up to 90 per cent. It is a real problem that we face and we have seen Ken Clarke making some interesting comments about the prison regime in the new DoJ, but the social impact bond and payment by results ought to be hugely attractive to the government. It doesn’t pay if no outcome is achieved, we’re taking the risk on that. The third sector who we always work for in these circumstances gets the resources to fund its activities, www.reform.co.uk 125 Public sector productivity / Reform again transferring some of those care in the community activities back in to the community and taking them off the government payroll. The bond and the bond holders, the investors and ourselves, we take the financial risk, which the government doesn’t hold for itself in its usual very cautious approach. We think it’s a neat model, we think there will be a lot of interest in it, if it’s successful I think it could provide an interesting way for a government to achieve less cost, less risk and much higher outcome. We don’t think it would be rocket science either for businesses like ours to actually put all the money up for the social bonds ourselves in return for backing our own judgement, we think it would be hugely attractive. It seems to us very much like a win-win. So I conclude by saying that in order to achieve this ambition of delivering more for less I think we need to think radically differently. Given the levels of waste that we see in the public sector and the relatively low level of outsourcing, we think more can be done, we think more is eminently achievable with the right drive but we think overcoming social inertia may well be one of those things that will be much tougher to achieve than people think. If I’m honest, I think that pace is the big issue. It is difficult to see government responding at the right speed. We hope that this new coalition government will have the urgency to drive down the deficit and therefore drive pace through its organisation. Thank you very much. Colm McCarthy: Thanks very much Andrew, in your introductory remarks you were talking a little bit about fiscal consolidation in Ireland as if it had already achieved its objectives and as if it was reasonable to start to think of it as a success. It is in the very early stages. What is different is that it commenced back in 2008 and I want to try and explain why. The reason is that there was a realisation then that we’d got into a pretty serious mess. We also didn’t have an impending election which you did and the former Prime Minister quit as you know in April or May 2008 so we had a new Prime Minister and there was a lot of alarm all over the place. What had happened was that the budget was more or less in balance to 2007, it collapsed to a 12 per cent deficit in 2009 and then there was a banking collapse.You had both of those but we had those two things in spades and there hadn’t been a fiscal crisis like it since the 1980s. There was a bad public finance crisis in Ireland in the 1980s and we got out of it, we got out of it reasonably successfully. This one is worse though. The banking system hadn’t collapsed in the 1980s, the economy wasn’t uncompetitive and it is now, the international economy wasn’t as bad and you didn’t have the dysfunctional stock and credit markets that we now have but one feature which the Irish situation shares with what happened here in Britain is that there has been very rapid growth in public spending over the last decade. In real terms growth in public spending in Ireland never rose by less than 4 per cent in the entire decade and in one year the real volume of current spending worldwide was 11 per cent so you can imagine what the increases were and they have been virtually under all headings. This chart shows the Exchequer spend exclusive of debt service, so this is gross central government spending on current and capital as a 126 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform percentage of GNP and it goes back to 1983 and current and capital spending as a percentage of GNP fell partly because GNP was rising so quickly but it’s interesting that these numbers began to flow [moves away from microphone] … as a percentage of GNP. There was a period of really extraordinary loosening in expenditure control. I think most people would agree that that happened in Britain too although to nothing like the same degree. This shows how the budget deficit got out of debt. You can see that the red line is standard, the blue line is government revenue and these are Euro GDP definitions and you can see that the budget was more or less in balance right up until 2007 and then the revenue collapsed and spending kept trundling along. I’ll show you another track in a moment on the same theme but it is kind of hard to understand how can you have a budget deficit of in or around zero in one year and then within three years it has suddenly [inaudible] from GDP, how can that happen? Well, there are several ways that it happens. Once you start borrowing, if the interest rate moves against you, the debt burden starts cutting up and it is not just on fresh borrowing, it’s on whatever borrowing you have to roll over every year. The average duration of You have got to run government might be pretty quickly to stand in eight, nine, ten years, the same place even higher in the UK where it is 12 or 13 years, something like that but in most countries it is eight, nine years. If interest rates move against you as they have here, that shoves the red line up a bit. Plus it puts more people out of work so government spending develops some extra upward momentum and government revenue tends to collapse and that’s what happened to us. Revenue under all headings – direct taxes, social insurance contributions and so on, savings ratio has gone up because the private sector has got nervous, the corporate sector has got nervous – that’s happened all over the place really and the private sector financial services – Mark [inaudible] was going on about that today in the FT, it has happened all over and of course it hits consumption. A specific thing that has happened in Ireland is because there was a credit fuelled property bubble, the government was cashing in big-time. There was VAT on new house sales, there was capital gains tax on non-residential properties and there was stamp duty which is an infernal medieval tax which should be abolished and has no place in a modern system at all. You have it too and it is always either a feast or a famine with stamp duties. What tends to happen is the volume of transactions dry up at the bottom of the cycle and the price at which transactions are conducted also fall so you get double trouble. The presence of stamp duty on the scale that we have and still do is just imparting a degree of gratuitous volatility. So these three things happened and I think you had something a little bit similar here with property taxes and the financial sector and because corporation tax has lost [inaudible] you will probably find – and I haven’t looked at the details but you are probably going to have very poor corporation receipts so that is another reliance of [inaudible]. The other thing that’s happened, and the Chancellor I think welcomed this in his budget speech on 27th June, is the debt servicing burden starts shooting up, and once you start borrowing to pay that, that’s an issue here in the UK. The Chancellor rattled on about that quite a bit and those numbers, the blue line in particular, shows debt interest as a percentage of tax revenue. Okay, tax revenue has been falling but in Ireland in 2007 that service was cut from 4 per cent of tax revenue and in 2010 it’s going to be 14 per cent so that means out of every 100 bucks that the government were getting in revenue in 2007, they had 96 left to spend on something or other, they have now got 86 left to spend on something or other on a volume of tax revenue that hasn’t certainly [inaudible] and I think those who keep preaching the case for a more gradual fiscal correction, they don’t always pay quite enough attention to the issue of debt servicing. The other point I want to make, and again I haven’t had time to look at the UK figures, but it takes time to stop expenditure flow. What the Irish government has done is increased taxes and there is a substantial tax component in the correction to date and they have tried to cut spending on the various headings but it is hard to actually cut the overall spending burden when you have got this upward momentum there from social transfers and from debt service so you have got to run pretty quickly to stand in the same place and it is hard to get government revenue up as a share of GDP anyway in a downturn because there’s no buoyancy out there. I think that chart is salutary and that chart is the bottom line after a pretty big fiscal effort and the details are there. They started in July 2008, there was a budget brought forward to 2008 which I thought didn’t go terribly well. It was meant to be in December and they thought, “to show how serious we are we’d bring it forward by two months”, and some of the measures weren’t thought through or weren’t road tested and some were withdrawn afterwards under pressure and all that stuff. Then there was a supplementary budget in April and finally the budget in December 2009. This was after the spending review that Andrew referred to earlier on which was a very wide ranging spending review and kind of road tested all the measures. I think at that level anyway, at the public communications level, I think it was a very worthwhile exercise and the budget in December 2009 went through much more smoothly than some of the earlier ones. Overall, on a full year basis, the achievement of adjustment is 9 per cent of GDP but of course it hasn’t actually cut the deficit at all, it has just prevented the deficit from getting horrendously worse. A lot of the measures that have been taken will have impacts that will spread out two or three years. There are a couple of other points in Ireland. There is a debt overhang, most of the budget debt structure as it is here, I don’t know what figures people have in the UK but certainly in Ireland we think at least two third of that structure, maybe even three-quarters. There is a need generally to [inaudible] in the economy, I think that’s true here too and the government in a way in borrowing has been supporting the private economy through the accumulation of public debt but that’s a temporary expedient and can’t go on forever. I just want to say a few things about efficiency and improvements. What we’ve found is that politicians are very conscious of how much public support they actually have and with five years to go you have lots, particularly on a change of government. In Ireland there wasn’t a change of government, there was a change of personnel but not a change of government so a change of government in a different ideological direction does make things easier but the immediate priority in a situation like this is to make savings, is to actually make big decisions that have a big impact, like cut public service pay or embargo public service recruitment or cut social [inaudible] payments and social transfers and we have done all of those, or increase taxes, which we did. On the 22nd June the big decision here was to increase VAT to 20 per cent and that’s serious, that generates [inaudible] and it needs to be justified and serious politicians quite rightly are going to be [inaudible]. The trouble with efficiency improvements is that they do not yield quick cash savings and I think a lot of commentary has been too glib about saying never waste a good crisis, it is a good chance to make changes to the system, we’ve got to get better value for money and do more with less. I believe in all those things but in the early stages anyway it is unrealistic to expect politicians to spend capital on saving a million here and two million there when they are trying to save £2 billion or more on some big issues. The Group Bill I chaired last year, I can’t even remember the name of it now, it was dreamed up by Sir Humphrey. Lots of agencies have Gaelic names but the newspapers decided to call it One Broad Snip which fits into a headline a lot easier but we recommended a lot of the things that have just been discussed including better procurement, outsourcing, scrapping a whole load of quangos, mergers and so on and each of these things would save some money, so there was a spring cleaning exercise during the public expenditure splurge but very little progress has been made on this stuff because politicians, when push comes to shove, they know they have knocked so many billions out of the system. Now they will devote their energy to that rather than fight a thousand different quangos and a thousand different trade unions and a thousand systems and local authorities and all that, so I think the value for money stuff suffers from that and the kind of things that our politicians have proven willing to do, they’ve cut Child Benefit, they have actually cut the rates of payment, they have cut public service pay rates twice, so they haven’t shown a shortage of bottle but they have rationed out their bottle very carefully and they haven’t wasted their lock, stock and bother on fighting an awful lot of skirmishes and entrenched bureaucracy in trade unions and so on. I might just finish with a couple of comments about the UK fiscal consolidation to date. I think it has been well executed to date and I think the change of government will try and The trouble with efficiency get as much of the bad improvements is that they news out of the way up front as it can. The two do not yield quick cash aspects to it that savings and I think a lot interested me, the first was the red lining of of commentary has been too glib about saying never health and in all of European welfare waste a good crisis states, health, education and welfare account for two thirds or three quarters of government spending and these are the big ones. If you red line any one of them you are trying a much bigger burden if it does not [inaudible]. It also is implausible that there is no scope www.reform.co.uk 127 Public sector productivity / Reform for economy in such a big operation as health and we didn’t do that. The government asked us to go off and find economies everywhere, which has the advantage that you are proofed against accusations that you are picking on people then because we could honestly say that we were picking on everybody. But, a few years down the road, if the education budget gets hammered and the health budget doesn’t, that’s difficult to sustain. The other thing on which I’ll finish, the British government has said it is also going to go easy on the foreign aid budget and the Irish government wanted to cut it because of the size of it actually and we had a look at this, and I suspect sometimes that the Treasury are ahead of me on this, but we discovered there are lots of people in the foreign aid business including the Army and the Army told us they have 500 guys in Chad which requires another 500 guys at home because they get a lot of leave when they come back, they are on six month tours getting shot at and I suppose if you spent six months in Chad you’d need a break when you got back too, plus they have a lot of training before they go out there. So the Army guys told us that to keep 500 guys abroad ties up 1000 guys and suddenly you are talking serious money because the UN does not pay enough. I think every country in the world gets a flat rate payment which means for European countries it is very tough when other countries pay their soldiers $10 a week and make a profit on it apparently. So we did a few sums and we found out the spending was far bigger than we thought it was, and I would be astonished if the same wasn’t true in the UK and this isn’t defence. Well it’s not defence, not that Chad harbours ambitions to invade some small European country that the Chadians couldn’t find on a map, so it isn’t defence and if it isn’t foreign aid we shouldn’t be doing it. Think of the British Army’s intervention in Sierra Leone, if that wasn’t foreign aid then it shouldn’t have been done. So I suspect that there are all sorts … we also discovered that the police were involved in foreign aid, they had some chaps in Kosovo and that, so those are just two random comments. Anyway, thank you very much. Andrew Haldenby: Fantastic. We started ten minutes late and I haven’t wanted to interrupt the speakers so Alan Downey and this session will go on to quarter to eleven. Alan Downey: Just recently I have begun to think I’ve taken on the role of the lead character in Ashes to Ashes. Those of you have never seen it, the lead character is shot, which I’m glad to say hasn’t happened to me yet, then inexplicably regains consciousness in 1981. I started my career as a civil servant in 1981 and those were the days when opposition politicians were accusing the government of making heartless and unnecessary cuts. The trade unions were threatening strikes, senior public sector managers were insistent that they had already cut to the bone and couldn’t possibly cut any further and the government’s justification was it was taking unavoidable measures because of the legacy left to it by the previous administration. I do think we run a risk if we simply find ourselves replaying the rhetoric of the 1980s that we will fail to take the steps that we desperately need to take in order to tackle the problems that we face. We should not be focusing our attention on the need to cut 128 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform because I think that should be at least common ground. We do need a discussion on where we cut and if we have ring-fencing Just recently I have begun of health and so on, which merely increases to think I’ve taken on the the pressure elsewhere, role of the lead character but there is another in Ashes to Ashes. Those important issue and of you have never seen it, that is how we cut. I do the lead character is shot, take your point, Colm, the efficiency which I’m glad to say hasn’t that agenda doesn’t deliver happened to me yet, then quick wins, but it is a very important agenda inexplicably regains nevertheless and the consciousness in 1981. risk is that we will I started my career as a reduce the size of the civil servant in 1981 and public sector without those were the days when tackling the obvious opposition politicians were and ingrained of the accusing the government inefficiency current arrangements. of making heartless and The result of that is the problems we are facing unnecessary cuts today will simply recur again and again in the future. When I refer to obvious ingrained inefficiency I am not seeking to be gratuitously offensive although I know that librarians, due to something that I said recently, believe that gratuitous offensiveness is my stock in trade. Indeed I think I am echoing the comments of many people who work on the front line in the public sector and for the avoidance of that I would like to echo the comments that have been made today about the quality of public services that are delivered in this country and the professionalism and the high ethical standards with which they are delivered. I work with colleagues in many other parts of the world who would be delighted to have some of the problems that we have in our public sector. They actually face much more intractable problems to do with corruption, nepotism and bribery and I am talking about countries which are not very far away from the UK in some cases. Why do I talk about ingrained inefficiency? It is for a number of reasons which I think are well understood and I won’t list them all because I don’t have the time but I will just focus on just a couple. I think it is absolutely clear that the additional money that we poured in to the public sector last decade has not resulted in an increase in productivity and has not given us good value for money. That is not to say that nothing has been achieved but we haven’t got the results that we should have got from the money that we spent. For example the ambition to get NHS funding up to the OECD norm has had relatively little impact on the outcomes that we want to deliver and that matter and, as has already been said, the obsession with targets, and performance management, and top down efficiency programmes, have resulted in a massive increase in bureaucracy and relatively little benefit.When I talk to front line deliverers of services, such as teachers or police officers or clinicians, the one consistent complaint that I hear is about the unnecessary and unhelpful regime, targets, assessments, tests and reports and inspections. More than that, when I go around Whitehall departments and NDPB offices and strategic health authorities and local health authorities, I am always struck by the huge amount of time and effort that is spent on not delivering any public service but on overseeing and monitoring and advising and inspecting. We have heard reference from Francis Maude this morning that the phenomenon of levers that comes into that and that reminds me of a story that is probably not true but if it’s not it should be. It is about the Beach Boys. Brian Wilson was the guy doing the music behind the Beach Boys but the Wilson boys had a domineering father, Murray Wilson, and early in their career he was not only their manager but he also wanted to have control of their musical output and they solved this problem by having two mixing consoles, one that Brian Wilson operated so he was producing all of these fabulous harmonies and the other was Murray’s but it wasn’t connected in to anywhere! Another analogy or another example is that relatively early in his time as Permanent Secretary at the Home Office, I had a conversation with David Normington and he was saying how pleased he was that his department was meeting its crime reduction and community safety PSA targets and I made the mistake of saying to him, “if you closed down your crime reduction and community safety group, you would still be meeting those targets because there is no connection between what they do and reducing crime”. I haven’t worked in the Home Office since then. We have already had references to the ONS statistic that productivity in the public sector has declined over the period of 1997 to 2007 by something like 3 per cent. During the same time, The way that we all interact with businesses, productivity in the service sector, the with travel companies, private sector, has with high street banks, increased by 20 per cent and you don’t have with retailers, with the to think very hard to music industry, has know why that is. The changed dramatically way that we all interact over the last ten years with businesses, with travel companies, with and the way that we interact within the justice high street banks, with with the music system, community health retailers, industry, has changed services, has changed dramatically over the last ten years and the relatively little. way that we interact within the justice system, community health services, has changed relatively little. We also know from the statistics that there are substantial and unjustifiable differences in efficiency across the public sector so if you added a public service provider who was as efficient to this top quartile there would be a saving of between 20-30 per cent across the board. My final point in terms of diagnosis is one which has been touched on but I think not addressed explicitly so far this morning and that is to do with the interests of public service providers. It is absolutely true and it has been said that people by and large go in to public sector jobs because they have a sense of public service, because they want to do something valuable and help their fellow citizens but that public service ethos is in real danger of being drowned out by provider self interest. We are in fact at risk of losing sight of why we deliver public services in the first place and we should not do it for the benefit of those who provide the services, although of course they should be treated respectfully and remunerated properly. Nor, I hasten to add, should we be providing public services for the benefit of organisations like KPMG and Sodexo who sell commercial services to the public sector, we have to get back to the real reason why we are in this business in the first place and those of us who provide services to the public sector have had a real wake up call from this incoming government who have to realise that if we don’t change the way that we operate, we will go out of business. But to get back to the public sector providers of services, I think we also have to get away from this notion that public sector jobs are somehow valuable in and of themselves and that any reduction in the public sector workforce is a bad thing. So I think it’s good that we need to make some fundamental changes, the old top-down Whitehall driven big state approach simply hasn’t worked, and we need to take some bold radical steps. I don’t think it is really about putting finance directors on the boards of government departments, sensible though that is. Nor do I really think it is about the tight part of Francis Maude’s tight loose way of looking things, it is the loose bit that really matters. So a few brief suggestions. The first is, and it has been said already, we have to get away from pay for activity, which is what we have done for as long as I can remember in the public sector and instead we have got to start paying for results. That means of course that we should pay more for better results and less or nothing at all for results that are not forthcoming. The second step is that we have to devolve accountability, for the delivery of public services to the lowest practical level and in some cases that will mean devolving projects to individuals and in others it will mean devolving responsibility and accountability to local communities. Next we need to give the accountable providers of services the freedom to decide how best to respond to the needs of customers and citizens and how best to deliver services efficiently within a much tighter set of financial constraints than they have been used to. That means that Whitehall and also local government and the NHS will have to disband their armies of planners and supervisors and inspectors and performance managers. Finally we need to give the providers of public services the opportunity to experiment, to innovate, to acquire and to expand and that means an active programme of investment. I don’t use the word outsourcing because I think what we are talking about is making public sector staff more independent and turning them into independent providers of services who can then take control of their own investment and their own futures. Thank you. Andrew Haldenby: Fantastic. There was a huge amount there but I was very struck by something that Aidan said which is what we want to be achieving is less for less but better outcomes, we are going to spend less, we’re going to have lower inputs and less bureaucracy and better outcomes. Then Colm McCarthy saying don’t be too hard on politicians who do things like cut public sector pay, that’s what you have to do at the beginning but then you should look for your value for money after that. Let me take any comments that people want to make and I’ll put them to individual members of the panel. www.reform.co.uk 129 Public sector productivity / Reform Allister Rammage: Allister Rammage. I think there were two really quite scary myths here and one is about is about [inaudible] and the other is citizen choice. If we are honest about citizen choice, does it benefit the less than 1 per cent who are typically not well informed users and … I think we need to really challenge ourselves in the understanding of which public services … This idea about real data regarding HMRC and … Andrew Haldenby: So the fundamental question is, are we going to get more value in the public services by evolving and by looking for competition and by driving out what we think is a range of performance, the core performance, or perhaps a bit like Francis, you want to have more of a strong central grip. I don’t know if each of us would like to just give a short comment on that. Colm McCarthy: I wouldn’t dispute that if you could get for example areas like procurement and outsourcing and just streamlining organisational structures, I don’t doubt that you could do more with less or the same with less and save a lot of money. It tends not to happen in public service organisations though. People had discussions like this thirty years ago, I remember. Politicians talk a good game about better efficiencies and stuff, Margaret Thatcher rattled on about it endlessly, but the figures showed that it didn’t happen and I think we need to think very deeply about what it is in the broader political culture that inhibits the attainment of the style of efficiency gains and flexibility and rapid decision making that we all praise in the private sector, what is it that inhibits that in public service. I don’t know if you get it here in the UK but we get it here in Ireland, why don’t we get Michael O’Leary of Ryanair to run the government? We recommended the abolition – I’ll disguise this but rubbish like the Rhubarb Advisory Board and the Parsnip Promotional Council and stuff like If we extrapolate our reoffending rates across the that – and they didn’t do it because it is way entire prison estate we’d down the bottom of take 6p off income tax - but the agenda, there is a there are no votes in getting certain amount of grief in doing these things prisoners rehabilitated and so on. Somebody asked Michael in a television programme, what would you do about it? He said ‘Well I’d abolish the whole Department of Agriculture’. But you can’t do things like that if you are accountable and you have to get elected and of course if you asked him to go off and do it, he’d come back in a week and say I didn’t realise what the Department of Agriculture actually does and you can’t do things like that. So we can all be too glib about trying to recreate private sector efficiencies in the public sector but it’s not that simple. Aidan Connolly: I think what is interesting is that there is definitely a political dimension. If I look at prisons where we are delivering much lower reoffending rates, that is not simply [inaudible] … and the idea that if we 130 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform extrapolate our re-offending rates across the entire prison estate we’d take 6p off income tax but there are no votes in getting prisoners rehabilitated, votes have been for throwing away the key and that is the political dimension that makes the difference. Bernard Jenkin: I think the government, the new government, really has come in prepared to try and be brave. The strange thing about Francis’s presentation, it was about the tight bit when in opposition he talked a lot about the loose bit and the loose bit is much more difficult. What I would say to the gentleman who works in the delivery unit, the delivery unit is clearly the wrong model because you can’t have a delivery unit in a Cabinet Office or in Whitehall that is trying to get policemen or a nurse or a teacher to deliver a better service, it’s just daft.You would never do that in the private sector would you, so I think that is obviously the wrong type. The real challenge is around the world of innovation and it is how we can get people right down the food chain to be innovators. For that you have got to devolve, you have got to allow difference because if you don’t allow different head teachers or different chief constables or different prison governors to do things differently, you won’t get any experimentation. This is what the private sector does extremely well, the only difficulty is that very many of the outcomes that we actually want are not measurable in the public sector and I don’t know what the answer to that is except ripping it from the centre is not the answer. Andrew Haldenby: Thank you. There is an example of poor management here, or poor chairmanship, and I’m sorry about that. I didn’t want to finish the presentations and we’ve gone over time, let’s reconvene at eleven and please join me in thanking our panel. Public sector management Andrew Haldenby: We will start now with our panel on Public Sector Management which will be chaired by Greg Rosen, a consultant director of Reform and he will do a better job than me in keeping to time and it is ten past eleven so Greg, can we go on to 12.05, is that all right? Greg Rosen: Thank you Andrew, thank you all. We have a very distinguished panel sitting next to me, far more distinguished than I. I will be brief because we do have to try and keep to time. I know some of the panel need to get away promptly. On my immediate left, John McTernan has been special advisor to Cabinet Ministers in several departments including the Scottish Office, the Ministry of Defence and what is now the Department of Work and Pensions, also political secretary to the Prime Minister and has worked in a whole range of areas and will be giving us the benefit of his thoughts. Michael Izza from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, will also be outlining his perspective. From the frontline, Tony McGuirk, Chief Executive and Chief Fire Office of Merseyside Fire and Rescue who not only has worked on Merseyside but has recently graduated from the Harvard Business School and Julie Spence, Chief Constable of Cambridge Constabulary, who has worked in the police service for many years. Someone has already mentioned Ashes to Ashes; I will not mention Life on Mars but Julie will give us a far more accurate picture of the insights that can be gained. John, do you want to kick us off? John McTernan: Thank you for inviting me here to Reform. To the question, can you cut spending and improve services? Yes, of course you can. It’s not difficult; I suppose it comes under the category of what Ronald Reagan used to say: it’s not easy but it’s simple.You can take money out and improve services and by and large quality costs far less. It costs less to provide quality services than it does to provide bad services. I want to make three or four observations in different areas of public sector management just to set a few questions and ideas out there and then have a proper to and fro. The first thing is a modest defence of management. I think managers in the health service are one of the best things that we’ve got over the period from Thatcher’s reforms through to Milburn and Reid. The Griffiths Report famously said if Florence Nightingale was wandering through the There is a kind of heroic wards of the British management model that NHS in the 1980s she operates in the Civil Service, would be desperately anybody can do anything looking for someone in charge. I do think we for two years and once do need some people in they have learnt to do it charge and that they should be moved doctors, consultants, somewhere else surgeons, clinicians are very good at taking on board medical advances and medical innovations. They are very bad at taking on customer facing service innovations. Without a market there driving change and without managers responding to and managing that market I think the health service could be in a much worse state now than it is. It still needs much more radical reform but I want to defend the role of managers in there. In the Civil Service, I think the time has come to abandon the management model that the Civil Service operates under. There is a kind of heroic management model that operates in the Civil Service which is that it can work in two senses, anybody can do anything for two years and once they have learnt to do it they should be moved somewhere else and systematically there has been professionalisation. Labour was noted for its obsession with spin, it was actually a sense of trying to get your message across and one of the things that bedevilled Labour and the press office and bedevils the current government is that if you move people in from a policy specialism or another area to do press for two years and then move them out, it takes a long time to learn to do it. Press is a specialism, policy is a specialism, IT is a specialism, and finance is a specialism, So let’s actually be honest about that and let people do jobs for more than two years. Secondly, there is a dishonesty in the system now that says there is no transparent requirement to have the best people in positions but it ignores the fact that people don’t deliver functions in the Civil Service, teams do. So you appoint a senior manager and bitch and moan at the fact that they then reassemble their own team around them and bend the entire system which forces that to happen. Why not have a more honest competition for the front teams to do tasks and then reward those teams for what they achieve? Thirdly, in local government, can we have some honesty about local government? The political involvement and intervention in management in local government is outrageous and I accept it should not go on. It is accepted in local government that if there is a change of party rule in a local area, they will sack senior officers, chief executives, and chief executive directors. Imagine if on a change of government in the UK, the permanent secretaries were all sacked by the Cabinet Secretary. The amount of political manipulation that is allowed at the level of important service delivery is a scandal and it should stop. Finally, there is one big, big area that people always run away from which we have got two representatives from here which is the police and the fire service. Why does London still have broadly the same number of fire stations that it used to have in the 1950s? Because no politicians are willing to grapple with reorganisation. Why should there be reorganisation? Well in the 1950s a lot of people still had coal fires and houses were poorly wired, so there were far more domestic fires in the 1950s. The number of pumps we have, the number of stations we have, and the number of personnel we have, broadly reflects in London – I don’t know about outside London – a situation responding to fire risk in the 1950s but you can’t touch the fire service. And who has ever, as a politician, raised reasonably the question of efficiency and good public spending and value for money in the police service? It is not going to work to simply say, well we’ll elect some police commissioners and then they’ll do it. We’ll get reform if we take it from the Home Office and pass it to some other mug and then when there’s a problem where will the Home Office be? They will say, go to your people and try and sort it out. The police service and the fire service are areas where there will need to be a huge political commitment to reform. There are huge amounts of money there but there are huge conflicts to be had. In a range of different areas in public services there are a range of different management challenges all of which can be dealt with if there is sufficient political will to do it and the willingness to constantly reiterate that even if we remove the amount of money that we’re looking at in terms of public services over the next four years, we are returning spending to the level of 2004/5. How bad was it in 2004/5? It wasn’t that bad was it? Greg Rosen: Thank you, as provocative as ever! Michael Izza: Thank you Greg and ladies and gentlemen, I’m now getting a second bite of the cherry so I’m going to be fairly brief and concise. I just want to focus on finance management in the context of public sector management overall. If you have actually got a culture of poor performance management, that actually creates barriers to managers who want to bring about change. Financial management is exactly the same. Managers need to be supported if they are going to cut costs and improve efficiency and frontline services are going to be improved with limited resources. www.reform.co.uk 131 Public sector productivity / Reform Now we have over 4000 of our members who work in the public sector, most of them are senior finance managers and they have a key role to play in identifying where savings can be made to services. If you contrast this with what the public sector looked like ten years ago, most major government departments didn’t have a qualified financial professional heading up their finance function. That is just stunning. By 2008 the last one was appointed so over that period a great deal of change came about, but we now have to empower those people to make some decisions on our behalf. The good news is that these members believe that cuts can be made in spending while protecting front line services. We recently commissioned some research jointly with Reform that were looking at public sector finances and we called it TheView from the Inside. Now as part of that exercise we asked our members for their views on whether or not there was scope to deliver better value for taxpayers money and over 80 per cent of the people who responded to the research believed that further efficiency savings could be made in their organisations without affecting the current levels of services that they provide. There is probably no surprise there. What may surprise you though is the scale of the savings. When they were asked to identify what the scale of these potential savings might be and they were in discretionary budgets they estimated around £20 billion could be saved. Now we are starting to talk the right sort of numbers and many examples of their willingness to do this have already been put into effect. Now I thought as we had a chief constable on the panel this morning I would actually cite a police force as an example of good practice and we’ve been talking to Kent police force about what they’ve been trying to do to improve their efficiencies. Up until fairly recently Kent did very little with any neighbouring police authorities, they are now sharing across a range of procurement. They are sharing back office HR payroll functions, they are sharing boats that are patrolling the Thames river along the Estuary and they are sharing helicopters with Essex as well. These are things that I suspect those of us who come from the private sector would probably have experienced many years ago, they weren’t but they are now and I think that is a pretty positive step. The research also identified the changes our members felt were needed in the public sector to support savings and efficiencies and they actually said the single most important change that they felt was needed was political support and specifically they felt that needed to come from ministers. What we heard from Francis Maude this morning in his keynote speech I think was very encouraging in many respects but Ministers do need to have confidence in the leadership of government departments and they must allow the financial assessment to take place to guide strategy and outcomes. Finance cannot be relegated to a subsidiary function or even in some departments, ignored. The other key factor they cited as a barrier to change within departments was a working culture which failed to encourage financial awareness with departments. By this they meant that some managers wear it as a badge of honour that they are financially illiterate.You wouldn’t be allowed to do that in the private sector; I don’t think you should within the government. 132 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform The final point that they raised was that notwithstanding the resources I mentioned that had gone into departments for finance in the last ten years, there is still a lack of resource in the finance function. Those of us in the private sector that have made changes will know that sometimes you have to invest to make savings. The overall message from the survey, The View from the Inside if you’d like Some managers wear it as a badge of honour that to see it, is that there is to spend public they are financially illiterate. scope money better and that You wouldn’t be allowed to the government has a do that in the private sector; significant opportunity now to move beyond I don’t think you should the simple slicing of within the government public budgets and instead look at this area in a strategic manner and recognise and re-engineer the business in a way that gives value for money. But if any of this is going to be achieved within our public sector organisations, we do need this political support and it is not going to be easy. I thought I’d just spend one minute telling you what we’ve done at the ICAEW because you must see people who stand before you on platforms and tell you the right way to do things and they probably never have to do it themselves. In 2007 we realised we were going to start having a problem with our income. That’s when the rest of the UK started to react. Since that time we have made in excess of a 10 per cent reduction in our head count, a large amount of that has been achieved actually just by freezing recruitment and as Francis Maude said this morning, when you have to come to the Chief Executive to sign-off on a new hire, people think very carefully about whether or not they are going to do that. We had salary freezes all last year, that started with the Chief Executive downwards and it saved a substantial amount of money. People didn’t like it but understood that if the option is redundancies, they’d take it. We re-engineered our business process. Now that might be something that you think people should be doing all the time anyway but when you have a particular imperative that says we’ve got less money, we’ve got to do the same thing, how are we going to do it better, it really does focus the mind. I suspect that’s what may be behind some of the comments that you are hearing about how some cuts have got to be as significant as 40 per cent. Because when you start talking about 40 per cent you don’t make those savings in budgets through efficiencies, you have got to re-engineer what you do. I said this morning that I believe there is hope and I really do believe there’s hope. I think if you are in the public sector this isn’t all doom and gloom. We can have coming out of this, public sector services that deliver better outcomes for the public at large and that are better places to work but it won’t be easy but I think with everyone’s encouragement we can get there. Thank you, those are my thoughts. Tony McGuirk: Good morning everybody, thank you very much for the opportunity to speak with you this morning at this conference. When Andrew asked me to speak I did feel a bit of a phoney and I wasn’t quite sure why I had been asked to speak at such a highbrow intellectual conference, those descriptions could never be applied to me in any way, shape or form! I think John’s observations have been very useful set in context. He talked about the need to deliver changes and if we are going to take this stuff on in the police and fire service, you are going to have to get to grips with it, he is absolutely right. We unashamedly turn politicians inside out, usually because they lack the moral fibre and courage to take us on. We don’t and that is why, and it is cross country, New Zealand, a fantastic article about the New Zealand government, absolutely right, fundamental change but they went nowhere near the fire service. Absolutely stayed a mile away because the public love us. So the need for change in our service wasn’t driven by any political imperative. I have been asked to say hi from some of our fire fighters, they were waiting this morning to celebrate our World Cup victory. Unfortunately they are sitting there disappointed but they asked me to say hi. Steven Gerrard, bless him, these are the sorts of lengths he is having to go through to get his hands on a trophy nowadays, come on Scouser, you can come up with a better story than that. We are talking about reality. Why aren’t we delivering locally? Why is there this tension about the ability to translate some of those very worthy ideals? And Colm talked about pace of change at the local level, why isn’t it happening? I am going to use this to illustrate the political gap in terms of political confidence. This is Nick Clegg before he was a needy celebrity and Deputy Prime Minister, speaking at last year’s Liberal Democrat conference. Now those are Liberal Democrat councillors and at the risk of being stereotypical, would I put those in charge of delivering fundamental change in our future? John hit the nail on the head. That is reality; those are the people to deliver our future. I guess the point I’m making is like John said, let’s get some reality. Our reality. What was it like ten years ago? Wake up, we’re going on strike. Private Eye magazine, Green Goddesses on the street, absolutely appalling, in a G8 country the military were having to protect our community from fires, absolutely disgraceful. Cuts cost lives, a chant you’ll hear whenever anyone suggests making cuts in the fire service. We didn’t meet our performance targets, we knew what we disagreed on but we had no ideas in our organisation that we agreed on. Management lacked credibility. Why? Because we weren’t credible. They didn’t make decisions, there were too many of them and they had no backing from politicians to deal with performance issues. They had a very strong union, still have but when you put the fire service against weak management it is a recipe for disaster. Misplaced loyalties, low morale and no pride, the best service in the world in my opinion, the best service in the world and we’d lost our pride in our job.Yet despite that we were the highest spending public service in the country. Nobody spent more per head on the population on fire cover than in Merseyside. The highest fire deaths, 26 people a year dying in fires, it is absolutely outrageous. The most significant fire deprivation in all of the western world, you couldn’t find anywhere in the western world that was less safe even though we had more fire fighters per head than any other part of the western world. Fire injuries, 400 a year. Typically a serious fire injury will cost the NHS about £750,000 in care, 400 a year. Three fires a day, three fires a day. We had an incredibly expensive cost per head, poor working practices, poor reputation, and huge industrial relations issues. The first strike in Merseyside was in 1909 by the fire service and they have been very proud of that ever since. So why am I here? Well this flood of money in the public sector passed us by in Merseyside. We must be sat on the highest hill in the country because we haven’t seen a penny of it. We’ve had massive budget cuts so we’ve gone from being the highest cost per head ten years ago, that green line down there, from the highest cost to the lowest cost fire service in ten years and that’s in a period of very challenging budgets. How have we done it? Well in 1991, we had 1550 fire fighters. Look at 2008, now 900 fire fighters. We are now down to 850 fire fighters, so that’s 1550 down to 850. There is no need to close a fire station, we haven’t touched a single fire station. There’s no need to touch a fire engine, we haven’t touched a single fire engine. Frontline is fire engines and fire stations, not fire fighters. We provide a far better service with those 850, more with less. How do we do it? Here’s one of the things we did, get a grip of sickness. It is epidemic in the public sector, sickness, get a grip of it. It involves two things – this muscle, sack some people. We’ve got some bone idle people in the public sector – there I said it. I said it, bone idle people and we’ve We’ve got some bone idle got some wonderful people in the public sector people and the wonderful people – there I said it. I said it, hugely, hugely bone idle people and we’ve outnumber the poor got some wonderful people performers. When you and the wonderful people bring an employee to a board to sack hugely, hugely outnumber political them for being sick, the poor performers they lose their battle at a local level. They lose their nerve, they are got at by the trade union. Lots of things come into practice and what that promotes is an epidemic of a failure to deal with poor attendance. But we also have a fantastic incentive scheme, so the first to hit 19 shifts [inaudible].You smile at that, it’s ridiculous, I agree. The reason is nothing to do with officers, it’s the politicians. The failure of politicians to tackle these problems, to support managers and I would suggest if you did that in the NHS you’ve not got a problem, in fact they would have more money than they’ve got now, if you did that in the NHS. Incentivise great attendance and fantastic performance, celebrate the wonderful people that we have in public service. What I mean by that is real incentives. Up until then someone said to me we’ve got a carrot and stick approach. Well I must have missed the carrot because the only carrot I can see is that they wouldn’t give you the stick. There was no real carrot. Now once every year we have a car draw, anybody who hasn’t had any absence can go in a draw for a car, you can win a car. Is it popular? Of course it isn’t. Why? Because it makes the front page of the Sunday Times, they don’t like it. It’s not my job to be popular, it’s to deliver, to deliver, that’s what you do in the business world.You do what needs to be done to deliver and you can’t have your cake and eat it. www.reform.co.uk 133 Public sector productivity / Reform Someone said it was an inversion of private practice, they are absolutely right, you take it all on board and that means sometimes you have to do things a bit differently. I think it is in Roger’s article, he talks about public confidence, don’t blink, public confidence rests on your composure. It is the job of the leader to be in the public domain explaining yourself and don’t sit on the fence. Are we going to cut staff? Yes. What is the union going to say? Cuts costs lives, lives will be put at risk, they are going to say it and the idea that they’re not is just ridiculous and naïve in the extreme. We lost a £900 budget cut in one year in 2006, the union said we’re going to go on strike against it and I had to persuade the fire fighters to walk through picket lines and we had to stay there until the strike was over. The longest occupation we had in a fire station was 29 days. Every single day there was a picket line outside that fire station and public confidence and competence had to be maintained. The front page of the Liverpool Echo. When you say that on day one of the strike, you have to be pretty confident that your people are there with you, that’s why leadership is crucial. I don’t think a politician would ever say that, I wouldn’t want them to. That is not their job, that is my job as the professional leader with the service. Is it popular? No, it isn’t, there are some headlines here – that is a rip off of the Carlsberg logo, it says McGuirk in the middle – probably the worst chief in the world. Another occasion there were 2000 people walking through Liverpool wearing shirts saying on the back ‘I Hate McGuirk’ and when your family have to watch that it’s not a great day for them. At the end of the day this is what reality is all about and it’s what’s going to come to the public sector. What we have to do is look at our hiring criteria and what is the job that the public want us to do? That is what we fundamentally have to look at to change some of those figures. We no longer respond to fires, our job is to prevent the fire, that’s our job, our number one priority – prevent fire. Someone has talked about the difficulty of performance measures in the fire service, or in public service in general – they’re right. Our measure is how we [inaudible] and it is measurable, I think that’s what the public want us to do. The public can’t articulate that, I wouldn’t want them to, they’re not professionals; I don’t expect them to. We don’t ask their permission to take the service in a different direction because innovation by definition has never been done before so how can the public possibly have a view that could be supportive, they’re frightened of change. There has been that much gloom fired at them, they’re frightened of everything. They are not going to vote yes to anything and speed is essential. We have got to get on and deliver it and use this fantastic resource for so many other things. From tomorrow we will change. We will visit every single home and knock on the door and walk in, we will fit smoke alarms and we will prevent fire, from tomorrow. We will use our brand in a different way, we are providing a resource for the community and our fire stations are community zones that are open to the public. Our gyms are open to the public, we have got gardens in fire stations, we have got youth groups, older people groups, and disability groups. There is a whole health resource for the community that doesn’t have to pay more. 134 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform We use a lot of things to achieve that, using time, stealing ideas, all those things but meet the highest criteria. First and foremost understand what you have been hired to do by the public and meet the criteria, whatever it takes. Improve performance managing. Quick hands up. Anyone see the massive big arrow in that logo? One. The big white arrow, it was designed to be like that, it goes into your subconscious. Now all you will ever see is the big white arrow because your eyes have been opened to looking at something a little bit difficult. The road wasn’t changed, it is just a smart way of presenting a brand and I think that’s the challenge we face and certainly what the fire and rescue service faces. We have got a fantastic workforce, we have got successful partnerships, we have fantastic innovation, we’ve got efficiency savings, and we’ve got awards coming out of our ears. What have we learned? Clear leadership, clear People in the public sector leadership.You will aren’t there for the money never notice there’s a strike. I think I was pretty clear, I think everybody is pretty clear about what we were saying and they didn’t, they didn’t. Clear decisions, we are going to do that and we’re going to stop doing that from tomorrow, no ambiguity. We cannot get people to sign up to decisions if they are not clear what they are being asked to sign up to. Manage performance, reward good performance, develop people with poor performance or ultimately sack them. If they are not doing their job you have to get rid of some people. Very rare, in the public sector actually, very rare. I think we have some fantastic people. Focus on how we are going to do rather than what we are going to do. The value of an organisation is how we are going to deliver, not just what we are going to deliver but how. We’ve got a public sector ethos, that’s crucial It is very difficult in summary to talk about the output, language is a fantastic reward. People in the public sector aren’t there for the money. They’re not there for the money. The language of reward is that we have to train our managers in how to say well done and thank you in a whole variety of ways. Change is never going to be popular, it is going to be tough and I think we have got some real challenges ahead. But what I am trying to ensure is that having taken 40 odd per cent staff out of our system with not one compulsory redundancy, we have achieved it all through natural wastage, we have gone from the highest spending to the lowest spending and our fire deaths have dropped by 60 per cent, our fire injuries have dropped by 70 per cent. We now get one fire every three days, not three fires every day. We are part of the Olympics, we have the spire mark that is the brand of the fire fighter and the fundamental delivery platform for leadership in the community. So I sprinted you through a whole range of stuff there, thank you very much for the opportunity of speaking with you this morning and thank you very much. Julie Spence: How do you follow that? I haven’t got a tap dance and I haven’t got a slide show but I’m going to try and give you a little bit more information around policing because I am actually two months to retirement. I am being honest! But I have spent the last five years trying to put the public service ethos back into policing, very much because I think when I took over as chief and when I looked around nationally, what I could see is that the public wanted this. The police were there and they weren’t on the same page and in fact the police service was arrogant and aloof and had forgotten who paid their wages. So yes, that’s what I’ve spent the last five years trying to do and why I got a little bit irritated with the Home Secretary last week when she said your job is to cut crime, nothing more, nothing less. It’s more than that and I’ll come on to that in a minute. A bit of reality. Like Merseyside who are now the lowest spending, we are the lowest spending and there is something about the cuts because there are some important choices. But the government is going to have to ask itself, if they are already low spending and delivering should they be cut at the same level as those who are high spending? But I’ll come on to that in a minute. I am very pleased to hear earlier speakers go for more with less to what I think it is going to be in the future and it is going to be less with less. Hopefully it will be better outcomes but actually it could be just very different outcomes and we have to understand what that is and we have to be able to manage it as leaders of the service as well as leaders of the country. There will be some really, really difficult choices. Tomorrow I go back to a seminar of senior managers just really looking at where we are going to make cuts. Yes, we can do some and it is about challenging ourselves to say how can we do things differently and my deputy has been holding star chambers. If you look at the definition it is about how people go into things and come out without their ears or their hands and different elements. I understand in history but we are not quite as brutal as that. Nearly but not quite. You have to challenge them and say no, you are not going to recruit for that post, think about how you are going to shape your service differently but there was a flaw. I don’t know where it is and cracks will appear but we need to be alive and alert to where those cracks are going to be coming. But we have been asked by government to do some scenario planning on real terms cuts of 17.6 per cent, 20 per cent and 25 per cent. In essence 25 per cent is the more global figure you heard in the weekend press and up to 40 per cent. That is going to have outcomes and again government can deal with issues around the regulations that support the pay structure. It could mean that within Cambridgeshire we have 900 at 17.6 per cent to 1100 less staff at 40 per cent, and that means my service would be almost I think it’s a false economy halved, from 2400 to 1300 or 1500 so with definitely from the public there has to be purse’s perspective to be that some choices that are handing over that budget actually made. But until we have squeezed because 83 per cent of everything out that we can our budget is people and unfortunately we are not having a pay freeze, our pay freeze starts in a year which means it is going to be a pay [inaudible] in the budget and that’s where we are. But there will be pay freezes coming along later. There are pay and conditions but they do need to be looked at in relation to overtime allowances and why there need to be rates of overtime. Why when the working day today is seven until ten o’clock at night seven days a week, so it needs to be modernised and we need to actually look at how we work on the pay because either you cut horizontally and take money out of the pay budget and more people keep their jobs which a lot of my staff would much rather have or you end up with the same pay structure and the only way you can survive is to cut numbers, which will have an impact later on down the line on service delivery. So there are some choices to be made. I want to disabuse some people, because some of my colleagues have got into amalgamation, amalgamation, amalgamation to save money. It doesn’t. My belief is that it doesn’t because if you look at some of the biggest forces in the country, they spend more per head of the population on the service they deliver than we do at the bottom end. I think it is actually looking at some of these smaller forces to actually have a look at how they are delivering the service and seeing if there are any lessons for the bigger ones. That’s not to say all the big ones because on the bottom you have ourselves at fifth lowest, you have Suffolk on £155 per head, I think they are about the lowest and you have Essex in there as well at £169. So you have us at one end, you have at the other end much bigger forces – I won’t tell you who they are but you can go and do the research. You can probably guess, you are not very far away from one of them £265 per head. If they actually had that 25 per cent to 40 per cent cut they actually still end up with more money than we do so that’s why there has to be some looking and some real challenging. Not just from within the service and what we are doing within our domains but actually outside to some of the bigger organisations. Somebody said at the very beginning, an aversion to the private sector. Now I am not averse to the private sector but I am wary because I look at one of those forces towards the top end and they are about to outsource all their back office. They are outsourcing at current costs of 10 per cent I understand, I cannot – if there are members of the press here, I don’t exactly know that’s right but that’s what I’ve been told – but my view is, you are about to give all those profits to the private sector and you will not be doing that if you can’t actually make a profit for your organisation so that organisation is handing over what should be public sector benefits back to the private sector. I think when we have squeezed out as much as we can and then say to the private sector can you do better? If you can do better, right, you can take it on? But I think it’s a false economy definitely from the public purse’s perspective to be handing over that budget until we have squeezed everything out that we can. This is where government has to look at comparability and challenge some of these big finance decisions that are made which is in essence what Francis Maude is doing from the government perspective. Collaboration, which we talked about, does have benefits. We are going to be doing national collaboration and we are going to do regional collaboration on other issues that make sense, there are some things where it doesn’t make sense to have your locus in the middle of East Anglia and it is far better to be in Cambridgeshire. The reason this session was titled about performance framework is it is about what performance framework actually works. We have come from top down, centrally driven and a lot of people are now saying bad. I have to say when I took over Cambridgeshire we’d been www.reform.co.uk 135 Public sector productivity / Reform deemed by the previous administrator to be a failing organisation. It was the best thing to do, give us a kick up the pants and we used it, we used it to identify where we needed to go but also used it to embed public sector ethos. Look at where you are spending your money. Looking at what you are trying to deliver and remembering actually what you are delivering is about public principles as well. So it was about hitting all those targets but there were, I have to say, far, far too many targets. There were, as somebody mentioned, I remember listening to a senior Home Office official who actually said they met their performance objectives by us meeting our common reduction. I thought why should you get a performance payment by riding us and riding us inappropriately? So there is some micro management that has to go and I think when civil servants quite properly get back their advisory role it will be a much better place. We have also ended up with a perversity of failing by improving and that was because we didn’t meet our stretched targets so it was again, as somebody else mentioned, front page news – particularly local news – when actually we have improved. But it wasn’t against this stretching target our politicians actually set us and that we set ourselves. So I think that was important. We coined a phrase towards the end of the era, which did have its good points, we got into a realm of “hitting the targets but missing the point,” and I know that can also be said in relation to the health service. Because it was about some people losing their objective, and people tried hard to curry favour with political and bureaucratic masters We got into a realm of and were forgetting the ‘hitting the targets but value added or not in missing the point’ relation to public service, so you ended up with some perversities with some areas of the country being high in violent crime. Well they weren’t, it was just actually penalties for civil disorder were handed out like confetti so it made violent crime look high, it wasn’t the reality. Then the next consequence was the public don’t believe the stats so actually perversely it undermines the confidence of the British public. So I think there is some real learning, we don’t want to go back down that pathway but we want to understand the risk benefits need to be removed. We then went one down to get a deal, we keep getting deals, one top down target single measure public confidence and we are going to be measured on somebody’s perception and I got a letter from one of our regulators saying we think you’re going to miss your trajectory for 2012 because we have just gone down by point two of a percent in public perception. What it did encourage us to do is understand what are the things to tick and cross what the public feel. That is good because it allows us to better focus on customer service which I know people don’t like customer service because they don’t feel they’re our customers, but you can talk a lot about what you can do but ultimately in the private sector it is about making sure that people who have your services have confidence in you, feel good about you. Not because they want to come back to you but that same sort of ethos. So from my perspective there was some perversity that came from that but the good managers 136 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform realised that you couldn’t just have one single top down measure, you actually did have to have a whole range of measures to [inaudible]. It is also about preserving and improving access and freedoms so there is a big wider debate and some of this is about rights and freedoms but it is also about elimination of risk and by that I’m talking about things like health and safety, data protection, freedom of information, and vetting. They have all been brought in for very good reasons but they all create with them a very costly bureaucracy on all the public sector put heaps of money into trying to protect. We have to decide, I think they are over-regulated, over-engineered and costly but the public debate clearly has to be about what is the right level that we have in this regulation that actually gives us the benefits that the public need and deserve? And how do we cut the rest out and I will say this is a debate that we need to have. We have to help people understand the risk and the reality of that risk ever happening and sometimes I think the reality is overblown for the risk that is actually there. If we can remove the cost and improve the balance that would help. We also do have to get rid of the raft of all this inspection. I think last year almost every day we were being audited or inspected on something and that sounds easy, if you just let people come in and have a look, absolutely fine but you have to prepare for it, you have to answer questions, you have to fill in questionnaires beforehand – it is quite patently daft. But we do need to have a level of accountability. The devil is in the detail about what the elected individual/mayor is actually going to look like but they are going to have to have something that will hold us to account but that also isn’t bureaucratic in its nature. Just to reach a conclusion, I think the new model with the central accountability does have some, as long as the detail is right, does and may well have some real benefits but there needs to be in my view a national framework. As much as I live in Cambridgeshire I want to know if the public services in Cambridgeshire are as cost-effective as the ones in Shropshire, as in Norfolk. I want some comparison if I am going to be able to hold my local officials to account so I think there is going to need to be not just local, I think there needs to be a national framework and that is for government with the regulator to design what that should be. Non bureaucratic but really something that allows us properly, all of us as The devil is in the detail citizens, to hold the public sector to about what the elected account. And I will individual/mayor is watch for that first actually going to look like major incident, where but they are going to have the government having given away all the to have something that try to pull them will hold us to account but leaders, all to get it back in and I that also isn’t bureaucratic think that’s the real in its nature danger, although I have to say from police perspective we were really, really pleased with the way they managed the serious shootings in Cumbria. I think if that’s able to be carried forward is a really good model for how you manage the extraordinary if very difficult, well for the community there catastrophic, and something that will actually live with people for a very long time. Two other very small issues. One, we need to have a cross organisational model. I’m currently working with other public sector services in Cambridgeshire to see how we can deliver better locally and I think that is a real issue going forward. If we can hold some accountability across all public services, I think we can deliver better for the money we get. I will absolutely endorse what the guy was saying about Peterborough Prison because I’ve been at it from the other side in relation to the Social Impact Bond and in fact when I retire I am going to do some voluntary work, if I’m allowed, to make sure that properly does get embedded. It is a new way of funding public services, it is a new way of funding social outcomes and it has I think got real legs and needs to be looked at and evaluated because it could be the way of the future. Ultimately I think we need to have politicians who understand the evidence base. I was at a meeting yesterday, a conference at Cambridge University and there is lots of evidence that we have it, we understand it and we had a politician, an ex-politician there who said the evidence base only works if it fits with the agenda. Well we have to make the agenda fit the evidence base and I think that’s the challenge for public services going forward but it has to be a dialogue between politicians, professionals and the public. Greg Rosen: Now I am conscious that we have run slightly over time. Do we have time for some questions? Okay, can I take them in rounds of three if you want to stick up your hands. We have no questions? We have one. [Question inaudible due to not being close enough to the microphone.] John McTernan: In my experience the right sort of political support is clarity and consistency. So if you know where you’re going, you’ve got a direction and if you know there’ll not be any variation I think that, I’m sure everybody who has been in this situation with difficult change, with political leadership, it goes both ways which is that if the politician is not going to wobble, then the service has to not wobble either. This is something where people are bound together in a joint enterprise and I think that’s like any other piece of work where if you are joined together then you get better and better at trusting each other. The easiest thing to do in any of these situations is to blame the people who are not in the room; it is very easy to be rude about people who are not with you. When people are with you, you understand their situation, their context. Politicians do have to get re-elected, that is not ignoble because they re-elect on a platform which includes taxation and taxation is compulsory confiscation of people’s wages to pay for public services. So you do understand it is not just the job of being a mediator or spokesperson, the leadership demands are multiple just as they are on leadership in public services. So it comes back to what’s the pleasure? The pleasure is having that rush and that sense that things which you know should be done or could be done are going to be done and things that you didn’t really dare to think were going to happen are done and that works on both sides – the politicians, the advisors and for the public servants. Tony McGuirk: I think John is absolutely right and I have got a lot of regard, I haven’t got to be elected so in a way it’s easy for me, I haven’t got to be popular so in a sense that makes life very easy. I am just presented with a set of problems to which I have got to find a solution and I’ve got the luxury of being able to be logical and all those things that politicians, local or national, have not got that luxury. My experience has been why would a politician make an unpopular decision which by it’s very nature, they’re there to represent the popular view so why would they do that unless they had to? My challenge was to convince the political leadership that this is the way the service should go because it is the right thing to do. Unfortunately, and we were able to get ahead of the game in one sense, we’re not in that game now.Whether it is the right thing to do, it is the economic reality so in a way local politicians will not have the choice. The The easiest thing to do choice is being removed in any of these situations and on one level that’s a is to blame the people good thing but on who are not in the room another level it is going to be quite a complex issue. It is a real dilemma because you will have national government saying get on with it, sort of thing, which is very easy to do, cut 25 per cent or whatever the figure might be, yet the same national politicians will be on to their local fire station or whatever saying “It’s outrageous you are closing this fire station.” That is the reality of what you’ll get and I think local politicians are going to be in a really difficult position and I don’t envy them. I think we are very fortunate in this country, in the main we have some committed and passionate local politicians whose heart is very much in the right place. They have a different job to do than I do as their professional advisor. Audience Member: On the slide it showed how the councillors would be on boards to discuss sacking somebody and the unions would get at them and they would be nervous and wouldn’t want to go ahead with sacking them but you managed to overcome that obviously. Was there some structural change or did you just through your strength of personality persuade the politicians? Tony McGuirk: Two things. There was a major political change. Going back, Derek Hatton used to be the chair and that might explain some of the resistance and as the leader he was also a fire fighter as was his father. He put in place procedures which required a political level for a final dismissal so unlike most organisations, the final say over dismissal was with the political board rather than a board of professionals. There was a national strike of the fire service in 2002/3, government I think really stood up to that issue very strongly and very firmly and put in place a completely new set of frameworks and legislation around the fire service. And it allowed us to change those procedures and really take politicians – because they don’t want to be there and it isn’t fair to them. They’re not trained in HR issues, it’s not fair to them, so they were quite happy and content to make it a professional issue. The appeal would go to www.reform.co.uk 137 Public sector productivity / Reform an industrial tribunal like every other employer so it was a combination of political change and structural change through the national legislation. Greg Rosen: If there are no more … Julie Spence: Can I have a quick comment? One of things was around legislation, health and safety, freedom of information, etc, etc because you don’t want to end up costing the public purse more because of legal actions that have been taken out against different individuals or organisations than you would save by taking out the bureaucracy that currently supports it. So it is time to work out, keep the benefits, but you have to have a very lean process for managing it. But that has to be done with discussion and it isn’t about always protecting your back which I have to say the public service or public sector is very wary of and wants to do because it doesn’t want to either have itself blamed or to cost the public purse a lot of money. So that is why it is not something we can do unilaterally, it has to be done with politicians because it is a big issue. Greg Rosen: Thank you, thank you all. I think that has been a fascinating session and has given us all food for thought. There has been an element of consensus I think on the panel for the need for effective, financially literate and empowered management teams and some wonderful imagery, not least of some of the Liverpool players but also the concept of the hiring criteria for public services and the importance, and John you also mentioned taxation as being the compulsory confiscation of wages to pay for public services, the importance of remembering what it’s all there for. A great deal of food for thought there for everyone, thank you. A new era: the rights and responsibilities of individuals and the Government Lucy Parsons: We might actually finish before time because unfortunately Colm Reilly has not been able to join us so hopefully we will finish on time and you will be pleased to hear that this session is the last one before lunch, I’m sure you’re all starving. In this session we are going to be looking at how, in this age of austerity, policy makers can define and limit the role of government in the public sector and what that means for individuals’ expectations of what the state will provide for them. We have an excellent panel of speakers here. The Right Honourable Margaret Hodge, MP for Barking and the new chair of the Public Accounts Select Committee, Margaret has the incredibly important job of scrutinising value for money in government spending. Margaret has previously held a number of Ministerial posts including at the Department of Work and Pensions and most recently at the Department of Culture, Media and Sport. We are really delighted to have all the way from New Zealand the Honourable Sir Roger Douglas who after an 18 year break in politics has returned to the back benches as an MP for New Zealand’s ACT party. 138 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform Roger was New Zealand’s Finance Minister in 1984-88 during which time he reduced a fiscal deficit of 9 per cent of GDP down to 2 per cent so hopefully he can give our policy makers over here a few tips. Last but not least, we have Allister Heath, the editor of the excellent City A.M. I have seen that in today’s Editor’s Letter, Allister has written that this is a square root shaped recovery and as an accountant I have been trying to wrack my brains this morning as to what that means and whether it is a good thing or not! But perhaps Allister will enlighten us, but firstly over to Margaret. Margaret Hodge: Thank you very much indeed for that.This is actually my first encounter with people after becoming the first ever elected chair of the Public Accounts Committee, we’ve never had that before, elected by all my peers across all the political parties so I am really only in a position to make some general observations about our role. The fact that I am elected, that we are all elected, I think does give us a new and very different and I think probably an We are there to drive enhanced authority to do the job of holding improvements in public to account. services so that when the government This is particularly cuts are made, what important I think at a emerges is a public sector time when parliament that is sustainable over the is trying to rehabilitate itself by demonstrating longer term real added value both in the way that we legislate and in the way that we scrutinise expenditure on behalf of voters, on behalf of citizens and on behalf of tax payers. I think the PAC in particular is charged with a particularly important role in this particular parliament because it will be dominated by the cuts in public expenditure and public services so during that period ensuring real value for money, getting more for less, which I’m sure you heard about this morning, getting greater efficiency and effectiveness becomes utterly crucial. We are not there as the PAC, I am the Labour chair, to engage in what is an ideological debate about shrinking stake, although I’ve got my views on that, although we are there to monitor and support the government in reforming the public services so that they may become more efficient. We are not there really to engage in the debate about should be go this quickly and should we go so deeply, again an issue on which I have personal views, but we are there to judge whether or not the actions of government achieve their stated aims and objectives. So for example are the cuts fair in that they don’t harm disadvantaged groups disproportionately and finally we are not there to advise government on what to cut but we are there to drive improvements in public services so that when the cuts are made, what emerges is a public sector that is sustainable over the longer term. Now these are early days, we haven’t yet met as a committee because all this voting seems to be beyond the House of Commons but we are finally getting it sorted out! So I don’t want to pre-judge really how we are going to contribute to the task with early pronouncements which will then regret later on but I do know that the PAC is in a unique position in relation to other select committees and there are two things. Firstly, we enjoy the capacity of the Comptroller and Auditor General and the National Audit Office where my early observations are that they really do, do a good job in clearly reporting the facts and in honestly coming to judgements about the quality and the value of public expenditure praising the good services as well as exposing the poor. So that’s the first thing, we have got a big capacity and the second thing is that our remit is very wide. We can wander right across the whole of government expenditure so we can really escape from the very rigid silos of individual departments which is hugely important as it is often departmental jealousies and the desire to establish department empires that mitigate against real good value for money being obtained. Indeed I am very keen to explore how we can work with some of the departmental select committees in parliament on some cost cutting issues and that is work I’ve done before when I was in local government, at Pricewaterhouse and as a Minister. Finally, because we were told not to talk for too long, a few observations and challenges that I think we are all going to face as we seek to reduce the deficit. I think it is one thing to talk about a smaller state and changing public expectations and I think it really is another thing to realise it and I think I’ve still got a question mark over that, especially in circumstances where there are changes in society which may demand increases in expenditure and the obvious example there is the ageing society and that’s not just an issue about pensions which we are grasping but also an issue about whether health and social care expenditure goes with a changed demography. So that’s the first observation. The second observation would be that it would be a mistake for the government to jump into what I call rash cuts and rash decisions for a quick and populist headlines so for example I’ve got a big question mark on ring fencing health expenditure, £120 billion that we are not going to look at to see if whether or not we can seek value for money and I think probably all of us as consumers of health would find that a bit odd in our experience of the health service. Or, to perhaps take another example, when the Housing Minister suddenly declared that the Tenants Services Authority, which is the regulatory body for social housing was, I think he said toast, it got him a good headline but the next day he was overruled by the Treasury for the simple reason that lenders to social housing require a decent regulatory framework if they are going to have the confidence to lend. Again that sort of brash statement I think just damages and undermines confidence in the Tenants Services Authority and goodness knows whether it led to some redundancy papers going out before they needed to. That’s the second thing. The third thing is to guard against unintended consequences of decisions which are taken, where cuts in one area may lead to increased expenditure in another and perhaps an obvious example there would be a cut in the Department for Education on youth services which may or may not lead to increased expenditure in the criminal justice system so I think we would be looking for that and the next thing is governments have to measure the impact of their spending decisions to assess best value.There has been a great trumpeting of getting rid of targets which I think probably did have their day. I think they played a useful role in the early days of 10-15 years ago when we were trying to redirect public services, they then became overly rigid and had their own unintended consequences but if they are going to go then we need to find new measures of accountability and ways of ensuring that we really get value and I look forward to seeing how the government does propose in the new world to measure performance. The next thing I’d say is the government has to act consistently across government if it wishes to maintain credibility and there I pull out two examples which are very, very minor but then you start thinking ‘are they turning the tanker in the same direction?’ So for example we had an issue where all websites were going to be cut and then we get a new one put on for members of the public to put forward their ideas of the best cuts to be made. Or we are going to have a cull of NDPBs which I don’t think is a bad thing but then we get the establishment probably of a really good one but which is a new one for budgetary expenditure, so we need some real consistency of messages. It is an enormous tanker, the public sector; if you are going to turn it round you can’t have those sorts of things happening. The other thing I’d say is we mustn’t just cut.We really must seek efficiency measures. So I think there is a lot of work to be done and these are just my very early thoughts.We have a lot of very complex, over complex programmes in government.When I was a minister at the DTI I had the task of overseeing a reduction in business support programmes, there were over a thousand that we tried to reduce under thirty headings. It was very difficult to do because every department jealously guarded its own programmes; every minister jealously guarded his or her own initiatives but nevertheless, these over complex programmes need to be brought down. There is more work to be done on overheads and administrative costs. I think one of the horrors I’ve seen in one of the National Audit Office reports that I’ve been reading is the Rural Payments Agency which is a payments scheme of £1.6 billion, spends £350 million on a new IT infrastructure and then finds it is fantastically complex and difficult to maintain and will require a lot of revenue expenditure to keep it going and it is probably redundant before it’s in. So there are those endless examples across government which we need to get a hold of. The other thing I would say is sharing best practice. We’re not really good enough at that and again an example from an NAO report would be the Highways Agency where that very simple Public spending doesn’t job of resurfacing our of itself guarantee public roads across the well-being but equally country is with very shrinking government does different contracts, very different costs and very not of itself guarantee a different services and if better society we could only go with the best it would save us a lot of money. The other thing I would say is to ensure that revenue is sufficiently collected. It is unacceptable for example that the latest estimate on tax debt is that there is £28 billion of uncollected tax around the system or tax credits, which are a very complex way of supporting poorer people in work. Out of the £8.4 billion of over payments, probably just under half will never be reclaimed so we have to get much, much better at that. www.reform.co.uk 139 Public sector productivity / Reform The final thing is radical reform of public services. Now there can be arguments that the last government lost its way on that I think in the final years but there were some good programmes which I think led to some considerable savings and indeed the DVLA, which we all do now online 24/7 and we get our tax discs and everything online, very efficiently, for much less. Thinking of a scheme I was involved with, the DWP Payments Modernisation, you used to pay at post offices, it cost £1 a payment, now do it through direct debit and it is down to 1p a payment. It was difficult to push through. There was some resistance but a great saving. The other thing that I was involved in was the Electric Incorporation Service at Companies House which was again difficult to establish, scary because we thought the IT would go wrong but actually now means there is a much quicker incorporation service that can be done online. So in conclusion, I think there are some who may think that our committee, the Public Accounts Committee, has less of a role with this new government because they have established their Efficiency and Reform Group. They brought in John Browne and other luminaries to advise on cuts and savings. They have established these really interesting boards in each department so executive, non executive and ministers… but in my view it makes our role all the more vital because not only have we got the capacity and breadth of vision to ask the awkward questions – is this cabinet office working effectively with Number Ten and with Treasury? Not only can we look across the whole of Whitehall and gather evidence of the effectiveness of new structures that the government established but we are I think in a unique position to ensure that we really fulfil what I see as the key issues. That public spending doesn’t of itself guarantee public well-being but equally shrinking government does not of itself guarantee a better society. So what is our agenda? We’ve got to look at effective spending, we’ve got to look at scrutiny in the public interest and we will be there to represent the interests of the tax payer in squeezing every last bit of value out of public spending and the interests of the citizens in maintaining the quality of the core services that any civilised society in the 21st century should have. Thank you. Lucy Parsons: Thank you very much Margaret. Over to you, Sir Roger Douglas. Roger Douglas: Thank you. Lucy mentioned that I had been out of politics for 18 years and had gone back in but really the story there in that is about incentives really. I started going shopping with my wife and she told me to get the hell out of there so I ended up back in politics! I think it’s fair to say when you are faced with a massive structural deficit, as you are in the United Kingdom, that it is vital in my view that politicians ask the right questions. Too often I think politicians on a world wide basis ask the question, what can I sell to the public? What policy can I put in place that the public might accept? It is the wrong question because inevitably it will bring about the wrong result and it won’t satisfy the public in the end. The right question 140 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform to ask is what should we do in the interests of the nation in respect to this particular area and then, and only then, should you ask the second question which is very important: how do I market that policy which I have decided upon which is in the interests of the nation to the public? You might have to modify a little bit the policies but you would be surprised that often that is not necessary. While in my view it is okay to have across the board cuts as are being proposed here, they tend to in my view at least to be one off in nature and might not necessarily [break in recording] … that when you are faced with a huge deficit you have to ask a number of questions. The first question is a very fundamental and simple one, should the department exist at all? The second one, if you give it actually a tick and say yes, it should exist, then the second question is what functions does this department carry out? Having asked that, you ask the question again, which of these functions if any should continue? Could any of these functions be carried out in the interests of the public in a better way? Can they be contracted out? Can I think if you are going to they be done more accept structural change Only when it is important that you do efficiently? you have asked that not try to advance a step series of questions, I suggest, should you at a time, quantum leaps really do a line by line will be required examination. I think New Zealand’s experience probably provides a reasonable insight into the nature of political consensus and my experience was that consensus for quality decisions does not arise until they are made and implemented, so you have got to do it and trust yourself. It develops progressively after they are taken as they deliver a satisfactory outcome to the public. Only quality reforms deliver the results that the country need and when I look back at the 80s and 90s in New Zealand and I look at the changes that we made, wherever we made a quality decision, those decisions still exist. Wherever we went half measured, we got trouble and there is still major political debate and those are in the obvious areas like health, education and welfare. I think if you are going to accept structural change it is important that you do not try to advance a step at a time, quantum leaps will be required. When you remove privileges of various groups at one time it is simply harder to complain that you’ve lost yours. If you do it one at a time, you’ve got real problems. To give you a feeling for some of the changes we made, in my first budget we removed all border protection, we removed industry assistance, we slashed farmers subsidies from $1 in $3 of their income to virtually nothing, we got rid of manufacturing and export incentives, we got rid of import control, we got rid of special depreciation – you name it, we got rid of it. We had infrastructure reform, transport, we increased road user charge in one hit by 48 per cent. We did that because we wanted to take away all the privileges of the railway to be the only one able to transport various things. We had reform of telecom, electricity, we introduced a uniform VAT and slashed the top rate of personal tax at the same time from 66c to 33c. We introduced monetary policy where the reserve bank aim was to have inflation between 0 and 2 per cent. The interesting thing about that passage and I met with [inaudible], were the moans from the road users. They thought 48 per cent was really a little too much and the other interest groups actually calmed them down so there is something to be said about having collective pain. The three C’s are important.You have to be consistent because if you are consistent that will lead to confidence among the community and in turn confidence leads to a level of credibility. As some people have already said, and I agree, it is absolutely vital not to [inaudible]. A little bit about public sector reform. I think we were the first country in the world to introduce accrual accounting, profit and loss and balance sheet with all the contingent liabilities there. It scared the heck out of everyone because our liabilities exceeded our assets by a considerable margin. Now the assets are well over one billion more although this year they are going down. We had a public service employment structure which had tight input control, salary security, overspending was the norm, we had public servants who were in fact administrators not managers so we had major reform there. We now have yearly contracts for output with Ministers, the Minister signs off the contract with the Chief Executive of the particular department whether it be the Treasury or the Health Department etc. The Minister and Chief Executive appear before a select committee of the House and we then give the manager the freedom to manage. We got rid of the centralised employment [inaudible], the manager appoints his own staff, he hires and fires them, and he actually sets their pay so the personal assistant to the Treasurer, the Head of Treasury, could [inaudible]. They have performance pay, they get bonuses. It wasn’t unknown for people to get reductions in pay as well. They are on fixed term contracts for all senior staff. The maximum contract is five years. The result of that was no one overspent – the reason? They wouldn’t get their bonus. I thought I might touch on one thing I dealt with which has been in the news since I’ve been here and that is the issue of public servants super. We paid subs for that in 1988/89, what we did was say no new entrants. You can have super but you negotiate it and put it in your package with your Chief Executive, so you go to the Treasury and if you wanted super in your package you had it there and it was fully You cannot have equity without efficiency and if you funded, no question, no contingent liability were able to increase the and then we said to all productivity by 60 per cent the people who were in it – they were in health, then you would allowed to stay of start to get to real equity course, we weren’t going to break that contract – we bought them out. We gave them an offer and said you can take your money if you want to or you can stay in it and we’ll honour the commitment. If you want to take your money and run and get the interest – and it was amazing, a lot did and it cost a lot of money up front – but it solved the problem. I think it is important that you have a good communications policy, you have got to trust the public and you have got to actually set out your objectives and once having spelled out your objectives, you can sell your programme against that programme. In undertaking that programme – we were a Labour party – there was a certain anxiety and I guess a quarter of our caucuses weren’t very happy with some of the things that I was doing so we ran weekly seminars and it was very interesting. I didn’t go to any of them, Treasury went along or I got outside people and in the end I think we had five or six. Many of those who started off amongst those 13 or 14 who were opposed, became advocates. I don’t personally believe you can leave an area like health out. I think it doesn’t make any sense. Some of our state owned enterprises that we reformed, the turnaround was simply amazing. You said something about how efficient they were before but railways we used to run with 18,000 staff, we got down to 5,000 and we carried more freight. In forestry it went from 8,200 to 2,800 of which 1000 owned their own business, we did that in one day and the department that had cost me $189 million gave me a cheque 18 months later for $129 million. It was as a corporation. All I am saying is there is absolutely no reason to believe that the health sector could not have the same sort of performances if you gave the staff both the authority and the initiative and the incentives to do that. And it is wrong – I am no longer there but my old colleagues in the Labour party, we tend to talk about the many rather than concentration on the objective and it may be if you did that to health you might actually lose some staff from within health but you cannot say – we talk about equity but my own view is you cannot have equity without efficiency and if you were able to increase the productivity as we did in the ports by 60 per cent, if you were able to do that in health then you would start to get to real equity because a whole lot of people who are on the waiting lists unable to get operations would start to get them and to me, you can’t have equity without efficiency. Thank you. Lucy Parsons: Thank you very much Roger. Allister. Allister Heath: Thank you. Basically I think the first thing we need to understand when it comes to our budgetary problems in this country is that there has been a massive expansion in spending and share of GDP and a small expansion, a much smaller expansion, in the share of taxation and government revenue as a share of GDP. It is a very simple proposition but it is at the heart of the problem. So if you look at the OECDs internationally comparable figures published every six months in the Economic Outlook, you will see that public spending as a share of GDP in the UK troughed at about 37 per cent, 37.5 per cent as a share of GDP on these OECD figures in 1999, after two years of the Labour government when they followed the previous government’s spending plans and then increased gradually and often at an accelerated rate to about 45 per cent of GDP by about 2007, before the recession. So during the boom years there was a massive increase in public spending as a share of GDP by seven or eight percentage points of GDP. That was at the time the fastest increase of any OECD country as a share of GDP. www.reform.co.uk 141 Public sector productivity / Reform Then the recession came along and GDP suddenly shrank by about 6 per cent or so and we suddenly realised that a lot of the GDP we were producing shouldn’t be there and suddenly public spending as a share of GDP, according to the OECD numbers, went over 50 per cent either last year or this year, and obviously these figures are being revised all the time and so on but according to the OECD something like 51 per cent, 52 per cent of GDP is the forecast for this year. So from 37 per cent of GDP to 52 per cent of GDP, a massive, massive increase and it took the UK from one of the low spending countries in the OECD to one of the very highest public spending countries in the OECD, much higher than Germany. In 1997 Germany had a much bigger public spending share than the UK, it took about six or seven years for that to be overturned and then we are now, according to the OECD, very close to French levels which were about 54 per cent of GDP and some of the Scandinavian countries, 55-56 per cent of GDP. Nevertheless we are in the top fifth of countries when it comes to public spending and share of GDP. So two things therefore: first a general structural change by the previous government and second, the recession which further fuelled that. So we have this massive increase in public spending yet the tax stake has only crept up, even though a lot of taxes have gone up so that’s basically where we stand. So some of this increase in public spending obviously is cyclical so you would expect a little bit of decline to the share but nevertheless you have got this massive gargantuan gap between the two numbers and it is basically a completely unbridgeable gap. Either you put up taxes massively. I mean massively and we’re not talking about a 2, 3, 4, 5 per cent increase in VAT, that’s a joke almost, you would have to put VAT up to 23 per cent on everything and even there is still a massive gap.You would have to actually assume that the UK economy is capable of generating that amount of tax revenues yet historically it hasn’t, it is not possible to extract more than a certain percentage of GDP in tax revenue. To be honest, any decent study would say there were now at the very least at the maximum capacity when they come to mark up tax rates on everything, especially on income but probably on other things too so in other words, the more you put up modular tax rates you either get nothing and you could even get less in some cases. So what do we do? Clearly we have got to cut public spending as a share of GDP and there are two ways of doing that.The first is across the board cuts, arbitrary cuts. The second is restructuring the whole situation and deciding that certain things that are currently entirely publicly financed need to be moved into private sector or they need to start paying for certain goods and services and so on. So it seems that the current government is trying to impose a whole range of cuts to try and squeeze things but without really restructuring the public services with the possible exception of education and not at all telling consumers they are going to have to pay more from their own pockets, in other words creating more revenues for these services but creating these revenues privately. That I think is where the problem really lies. It is quite important to see what the government is actually doing. Every single year of the next five or six years, nominal spending is going to be going up but 142 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform going up only by a few billion pounds a year therefore over a five or six year period, nominal spending goes up by about 10 per cent compared to spending in the last full year of the Labour government but obviously that is much less than inflation is going to be hence you get the real terms public spending cuts. Because interest payments go up, the money left over for the department goes down even more in real terms and because some departments are ring fenced as we know, such as the NHS and so on, the real term cuts over time for the remaining departments are going to be much higher, hence all this talk of 25 per cent, of even 40 per cent. However the whole conversation, all the headlines, all the discussions become quite warped. The way you hear about it or read about it, there is going to be a 40 per cent cash cut next year when that is not ever going to happen. For some strange reason the government is playing up the extent of the cuts they are pushing through. It is working okay at the moment, probably because they are in their honeymoon period but over time it is strangely counter productive I think. So clearly you do need cuts but it is also clear that there is endemic waste in the public sector and that public services are not managed very well. That, I believe, to be a completely irrefutable fact. However just simply cutting spending without restructuring incentives within the public sector and without changing things radically is going to have certain perverse effects. The first is the management of the public sector is going to naturally to try to find the easiest possible way to make the cuts rather than necessarily the most rational way of making the cuts. So if you are a private company and you are the CEO, your incentive is to maximise profits and to maximise profits one of the things you need to do is to maximise revenues and your selling directly to consumers. So during the recession a lot of private companies made significant cost cuts. In The only real outcome is to introduce some form of many cases they discovered new ways co-payment and to start in a desperate need to tapping the private sector survive and to not go bust. Something and consumers to start paying bits of these services triggered a whole bunch of reforms which often increased productivity. Companies suddenly realised they could produce similar services to consumers but with fewer staff or found new ways of doing it or changed offices or introduced new technology or whatever it was, a lot of people are doing this. It is unclear to me how this can be translated into the public sector hence we are going to hear a lot of stories about cutting nurses and doctors and police officers and so on and so forth and I think that’s a big mistake. The biggest mistake of all is to think that the government can constrain by dictat the share of GDP spent on things like education and even, to be honest, on healthcare even though the NHS budget has been ring fenced and therefore will rise probably very slightly in real terms, what the government is basically saying is over the next five years they are going to make sure the share of national income spent on health isn’t going to go up too much. The problem is, people actually want to spend more money on healthcare. If you have got a free society with a completely private healthcare system, people probably spend more of the share of GDP on healthcare than they do under the NHS and if you go to America where people spend a lot of their own money on a much more private system or at least a mixed economy, people want to spend more on healthcare, they want to buy more scanners, they want to do that and people will eventually want to spend 20 per cent of their income on healthcare, maybe even 25 per cent and as the society gets older people will want to take decisions for themselves. That’s not Up until now we have if you are a talked a lot about the rights irrational central planner of people in public services, allocating resources we have not talked a lot where you are rationing but that’s what about responsibilities individuals would like to do because even though there is one chance in a thousand that it helps them, they feel better about it and they want to do it. So you have got this huge pressure to spend more on some of these public services yet we’ve come to the limit, we are way past the limit, when it comes to what the government can actually spend, can actually conceivably tax from the economy and spend if it is the one doing all the spending as it is currently the case. So even if we were to achieve some efficiency savings and to re-engineer the public sector which at the moment I don’t really see happening, we would still come to this problem in a few years time. In a few years time everybody will be wanting to spend more but won’t be able to because of this big squeeze and because these services are being limited by the ability to raise taxation and this ability to raise taxation, well we are at the end of that. So the only real outcome is to introduce some form of copayment and to start tapping the private sector and consumers to start paying bits of these services, for example, on pensions, for example, on healthcare. The only area we are seeing at the moment is top up fees in education, for example, and clearly these types of reforms are the way forward. We cannot have the government limiting to a certain percentage of GDP expenditure in all these really important areas. Over time the pressure increases on expenditure will be so immense that the only way forward will be to tap new financing forms so it seems to me that the coalition, I really like the coalition’s policies where they are clearly going to cut public spending and share of GDP by about eight percentage points on their figures over five years if they actually deliver what they are saying, which obviously at the moment is just a spreadsheet and series of numbers, but if they do it there will be a substantial change and that’s good. The budget will become sensible again, the public finances will no longer be spiralling out of control, the national debt will start to stabilise and fall as a share of GDP but they are not really solving the long term problems, they are not really reforming the efficiency of the public sector and they are not redrawing the boundary between what’s paid by the government and the tax payer and what’s paid by individuals. That is a massive missed opportunity and eventually it will come and bite them in the face because they are trying to squeeze an unmanageable and unworkable system. Lucy Parsons: Thank you very much Allister. We might take five minutes to take one or two questions if people have got them. Audience Member: … talking about in the earlier session in terms of the main objectives but I wonder if this also applies with the minutiae a bit in terms of, well certainly the government are doing a lot on transparency aren’t they, spending transparency which I think will mean not just payments to suppliers but the data, the cost codes, so we can see in a really detailed and intelligible way how – it is something over £600 billion isn’t it that we’re spending – and where it all goes and Boris Johnson has done this already for City Hall, not for the whole GLA but for the little bit that City Hall is spending itself, about £100 million. There is a really detailed breakdown on his website where that goes. It occurs to me that if that was replicated for the whole £600 billion that could put Margaret Hodge and the Public Accounts select committee out of business because for your committee – without in any way wishing to insult you – to try and get stuck in, in any detail, to that £600 billion is an impossible task. So isn’t this transparency agenda of getting all the information out there and we can all get stuck into the bits we are interested in, isn’t that a far more effective way forward than having your committee? Lucy Parsons: If we can perhaps take another two questions and then answer them all together. The gentleman behind. Audience Member: [Question inaudible, too far from microphone] Julie Spence: Allister, I really liked your idea of co-payment and up until now we have talked a lot about the rights of people in public services, we have not talked a lot about responsibilities. I think there is something around the dialogue, and it is interesting to hear what happened in New Zealand, around people’s own responsibility, if they actually want to have the public services because irresponsibility costs. I mean we frequently get blamed because somebody has left their laptop in the well of their vehicle and then they wonder why the police haven’t stopped it being stolen. Similarly on a Saturday night, somebody who has gone and had large amounts to drink, they may well avoid my officers but they end up in A&E because they actually sliced their head open because they have fallen down the steps. So we have got to cut demand in public services and there is something about public responsibility, I’d just like to get your views on that. Lucy Parsons: Margaret, I’ll ask you first, are you going to be out of a job with the new era of transparency? Margaret Hodge: I think they are complementary. Of course transparency is a good thing but there is judgement and assessment which I think comes into it, so it’s a dual purpose really. I have some concerns about what the government are doing. We’ll see how it goes. I am really keen on www.reform.co.uk 143 Public sector productivity / Reform transparency but I think if every local authority puts everything it spends over £500 on a website and the government puts everything over £25K on a website may end up confusing, it requires an understanding of why the money is going where it’s going. So transparency has its role, I think judgement has too and I think we’ll bring the judgement on measuring and looking at expenditure across departments or across the country or whatever. I just think it is not one or the other. Lucy Parsons: Allister, can I turn to you on the second question of the labour market and strikes and also on Julie’s point about co-payment and individual responsibility? Allister Heath: There probably would be strikes in the public sector and whether that would be sufficient to get government to change the laws on unions and so on remains to be seen, I’m not sure that it would.You have also got all the European Union legislation there on all those matters so therefore again nothing too much would come of that. Could the general strike threatened on Monday by some of the unions Ultimately we have reached actually stop this? I can’t see how it can the limit to what the really because the government can provide options are either through taxation, that’s finances spiralling out what I think the facts show of control and some kind of disaster or and so we need to find strong reforms are put new ways of doing this through. There’s no choice any more, that’s the thing. It’s not a political choice, if you have got a budget deficit of £150 billion a year, even if it’s falling by a bit because of cyclical reasons it is way too high and the government knows this, it has to tighten fiscal policy so I’d say that. On the co-payments and responsibility, I think that’s very, very important. I think basically the outcome needs to be a massive transfer of responsibility for looking after people to people themselves. So for example pensions is an obvious one, people need to save much more for their pensions or for a rainy day in general so you need a revolution in the culture there. Personally I don’t really like pensions, I think they are an antiquated concept but I think you need to have lifetime retirement and people need to build up assets over their lifetime that they can use in one way or another. You could have a similar process when it comes to health so if you do drink too much and hurt yourself then for 90 per cent of the population, maybe they should pay for that themselves. So you could have a health account and say the first £2000 a year in health fees come from that account for example and the rest could be from insurance, you could have that sort of system. Obviously the key has to be that if someone has a serious problem and they can’t afford to pay for it, then the government should pay for it but that would be a major revolution. If you start by introducing some responsibility here. Maybe one idea, and I’m not sure what outcome it would have, would be whenever anybody uses the NHS, they are given the bill but a paid for bill, so a fake bill saying this service costs £10,822 or the time you spent in A&E cost £422 and people would be shocked because they don’t realise the extreme costs of 144 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform everything. Maybe that would cost money to do but sometimes gimmicks work and in this case putting a price, publishing a price for all public services maybe, would have a cultural effect that may actually transform our relationship. Obviously it might have a perverse effect and people might start seeking out the most expensive treatments possible and so on but I think all this sort of stuff is needed. Ultimately we have reached the limit to what the government can provide through taxation, that’s what I think the facts show and so we need to find new ways of doing this. We also have a system where individuals aren’t sufficiently responsible for things and again that needs to change so we need a cultural revolution here. Lucy Parsons: So maybe a different kind of transparency there. Roger, do you have any comments? Roger Douglas: We didn’t worry about item by item expenditure, we went to a process where we entered into a contract with the Chief Executive of a department to deliver certain outputs which we had agreed and we left that Chief Executive with the ability to manage, so long as he didn’t make big forward commitments he could decide on the number of staff, what he paid the staff, the trade off between capital etc. So the really important thing is to sit down and work out what you actually want out of the department. If you took say the Treasury, I used to sit down with the key people in Treasury and we’d list all the items in the first column, there are issues that other departments would raise or that we wanted to raise, we would then put down what our attitude was to those issues and in the interest of the country, we put down how much time it was going to take Treasury officers to do it, if we got our approach through what it was worth to the country and then I’d sit down and work out priorities – this is our number one priority within that section, da-di-da. You then had a measure as to how effective the Treasury had been. For example one year we made cuts and we said what chance have we got of success? I think we put down there was a 15 per cent chance of getting it through but the pay-back was huge, like one or two percent of GDP, that we decided to have a go and we got about 95 per cent of that and part of that was how do we sell it to a colleague, how do we sell it to the public but it is the same in terms of health. The day you let people manage the total and concentrate on the output and the output should be that people should be able to get a health service when they need it and that’s what you measure against. We got huge improvements in productivity in health in the 90s through the simple concept – we gave one group of people the money to spend and they purchased from the hospital so the hospital did the deliver or produced the products and they were paid for by a health authority which purchased on behalf of the consumer. There was a separation of the purchasing from the supply and the productivity gains were quite staggering and in 2000 unfortunately a new Labour government came along and wiped it all so we have gone back to the old ways and the result of that was drops in productivity for six years between 2001 and 2007, it went down by 15 per cent. Nurses’ productivity went down by 11 per cent, overall productivity went down by 8 per cent.You can say doctors 15, nurses 11, why did it only go down by 8? Well they contracted out the provision of cleaning and supply of food to private sector and there were gains in productivity so overall it only went down 8.You have got to focus on who you are trying to help. Sometimes we get locked up in the me, somehow public education or government delivered education or government delivered healthcare is what becomes the objective, I think actually quality of education where kids actually learn is what it’s all about. Margaret Hodge: I just want to come back a bit on what Allister was saying and firstly I think the assertion that we have reached the height of taxation possibilities I think is just contentious and needs to be challenged. The balance between how you cut public spending and where and how you tax is open to debate. On co-payments, co-payment is an agenda for the future and I agree that we need a cultural shift on what expectations are on public servants but it is a really tough agenda and I think it is a slightly simplistic view of it because there are things that individuals want and need as rights in society, so a child’s right to an education of high quality or the individual who does bang their head, are we going to say that individual doesn’t have The balance between how the right to have it stitched up at the local you cut public spending and where does and where and how you tax A&E that take you on a is open to debate co-payment situation? There are other things that society will want to reflect on what it wishes to tolerate or otherwise so for example if we go down the road too much of co-payments, the already unacceptable division, unacceptable gap between the wealthiest and the least well off is likely to grow, the ability of society to ensure we grow the skills in our population will maybe diminish, the ability of ensuring actually that we don’t have troubles on our streets, homeless people going back to living in boxes or drunks around the place, that’s not the quality of life that we want. So I just don’t think it’s an easy agenda. There are all things that we think that maybe the public sector has to withdraw from and that individuals have to buy into but I think this idea that co-payment works for all individuals in all circumstances and gives society the outcomes that it wants needs to be questioned. The final thing, I think transparency particularly in health is more important for those who work in health than those who consume it, actually ironically. I wonder how many of our doctors and consultants recognise the cost of their actions. Probably they are quick to judge whether a particular drug or particular procedure adds value. Lucy Parsons: Thank you very much to all our speakers, Margaret, Sir Roger and Allister. Government as commissioner not provider Andrew Haldenby: Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, we will now have our final panel session for today’s conference, Government as Commissioner Not Provider? I am going to ask Nick Seddon, the Deputy Director of Reform, to chair this session. Nick Seddon: Thank you Andrew. Thank you very much to those who have returned and who have made it past the dangerous lunch and now we move into this, and part of what we’ll talk about after a great morning of discussions I’m sure will be the question of not the tight fit that Francis Maude described but the loose fit of how do you get competition and how do you get the commissioning right. I suppose we have talked all morning about is not just if government is doing the right things but is it doing the right things in the right way? Roger Douglas described how the first question is do we need a department? And then if we agree that we do need a department then is the department doing the right things and what do we want that department to do? So what we are looking at in this session is not just the government, to rethink the idea of the government as the provider of services and get other people to deliver those services in a way that delivers value, so better quality at a lower cost. We have got a fantastic panel of speakers here, all of whom in different ways are complete experts and so we have Colin Barrow who is the leader of Westminster Council and has been since 2008, Paul Pindar who is the Chief Executive of Capita and thank you very, very much indeed for your support for this event, we are enormously grateful. Paul joined Capita in 1987 so you have been there for a good stretch. Paul Pindar: Yes, I’m looking forward to my gold watch! Nick Seddon: We have Amyas Morse who has the amazing title of Comptroller and Auditor General at the National Audit Office. Amyas Morse: I am still amazed by it! Nick Seddon: And you have been doing that for just over a year, before that you were at PWC and also the MOD. Then we have John Fingleton who is the Chief Executive of the Office of Fair Trading and has been since 2005. John, through both an academic career and through the Irish Competition Authority, you have proved over many years that you are a very good believer in competition. So the last thing I will say here is that I have been amused recently by the quote by Ernest Rutherford who said “We haven’t the money so we’ll have to think” and these people on the panel today have all done a great deal of thinking about this and I look forward to hearing what they have to say so Colin, would you like to start us off. Colin Barrow: Sure. I first came to the City of London in 1974 as a junior stockbroker and at that time the Stock Exchange was rather close to the Bank of England so that’s where I www.reform.co.uk 145 Public sector productivity / Reform went. It isn’t any more so I had to walk along Cheapside so that was your first parable of the day which it is rather important to work out what it is you are trying to achieve before you actually set out on the journey to get there. But in walking down Cheapside I was quite struck by this pulsating community of unbridled greed that surrounds it and there it was, all being held up by roadworks.You can’t drive down Cheapside any more because there are roadworks there. It’s one o’clock in the afternoon, it’s Wednesday, you would have thought they would have been at work, there was no particularly good reason why they wouldn’t be but they weren’t, there was nobody doing anything at all. I could understand if it was half past five or Sunday morning but not at one o’clock in the afternoon. From that I derived a central theme of what I want to say and it is that you have to work out how much you are prepared to pay for what outcome if you are going to commission the right services. So if you don’t want Cheapside blocked for six months, you might want to bear in mind that you could pay the contractor a little bit more and have him work on Saturdays and upset all your residents, but that’s the angle from which I am coming in to this debate. It is indeed the graveyard shift, directly after lunch. I’ll try to keep you awake for at least the first five minutes, for my colleagues I cannot speak. I am a politician. I do not pretend to know anything about anything in terms of the wiring of the council. However I do believe there are some things that politicians need to allocate to themselves. In the local government context that means the local development framework, boring maybe but that is what regulates your planning decisions. What sort of city do you want? That is a political decision. That is why we In [Westminster] City we are elected and that is spent £200 million; the something we must do public sector in ourselves, you can’t Westminster spends delegate that to an £2 billion, and I am the only outsourced contractor. one who is elected locally Schools performance, of course you have to delegate that to schools and so on and so forth. But holding schools to account, that has to be done by politicians. There are some of us who think that is better done locally, there are others who think it is better done nationally, that’s not important in this context, what is important is that you decide what outcome you want and go and get it. We have quite specifically done that in Westminster by saying we want 75 per cent of our kids to get five GCSEs including English and Maths rather than 50 per cent and we have put money behind it. We have done what the heads have told us and now we will see if they are the professionals that they tell us that they are and in two years time we’ll know. We won’t have spent very much money but we might have changed the lives of quite a lot of children and that just seems to me to be an inalienable right and duty of the politician. We however are doing that through an education department which is quite small. There are 33 education departments in London and we have got quite a small one because we have got quite a small cohort of schools, quite a lot of which belong to somebody else like the church or academies and so on. So we decided yesterday finally to merge our education authority with that of Hammersmith and Fulham. So in the context of 146 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform commissioning, let me break that down. We politicians stay doing what politicians do, we have a group of officers who are called commissioners who specify and agree with us and then commission the services that are required. Then we have a delivery unit which is for schools and school improvement programmes, special needs programmes and special needs transport – which is offered by a merged department which is Hammersmith and Fulham’s and ours together. Well that’s in a sense the first part of the equation. The second part of the equation is much more complicated. Merging departments brings savings, we think it will save us 20 per cent, that’s fine, but you have to specify what you want to do because we have to take account of the fact that Hammersmith, God forbid, may change control or indeed Westminster may change control and if that’s the case, the central delivery unit is going to be marching to two different political masters at the same time. Does it matter? Will Special Needs transport change because it is run by Labour rather than Conservative? No, not at all. So that can be safely put in a delivery unit and commissioned in. Deciding on how many and which type of schools you have, that’s a political decision and that’s done by commissioners, so separating the world into those things that belong to politicians and those things that don’t is an important and central component of the exercise of commissioning. Commissioning isn’t something you send to the commissioning department any more than working out the roadworks is what you send to the highways department, you don’t. The politician must not let go of the decision about whether the Highways Department works on Sundays because that is a central part of the sort of city you want to manage. Now in the City we spent £200 million, well actually we spent a lot more that but a lot of it is in with the wash really so net we spent about £200 million, the public sector in Westminster spends £2 billion and I am the only one who is elected locally, all the rest of them are elected nationally and they march to the beat of a national drummer yet is there anything much more local than a road, a school, a child with disabilities, social problems like policing, drugs or alcohol? These are very local issues and yet they are commissioned in or provided into Westminster by Whitehall. I don’t think they should do that, I think they should give £2 billion to me and I will tell them how that is best deployed in Westminster because frankly I do know better, I and my colleagues and my team rather, because that which is done closer to the client is normally not only more attuned to the clients needs but also more efficient.You know this because if you were to give your child a fiver, your child would know very well That which is done closer how to spend that and get the maximum out of to the client is normally it because they would not only more attuned to know if the Oyster card the client’s needs but also works on Sundays and more efficient when it costs £1 on the railway, he knows all that because he is used to spending a fiver. There is no way local government knows how to spend a fiver, they know how to spend £35 million but they don’t know how to spend a fiver because they are not used to doing things very close to the point of doing it and the same parable applies to Whitehall. That is my message. There is nothing better than management, there is nothing better than localism, there’s nothing better than knowing where you want to go before you go there and taking the hand of a politician to guide you on the way. Thank you very much. Paul Pindar: Good afternoon everybody, I’m Paul Pindar, Chief Exec of Capita. I am just going to give you a brief introduction and share some experiences from my 23 years at Capita and what we’ve learnt In the olden days I think during that time. Just by there used to be an of background, expression “spend to save”. way Capita is the UK I think it is fair to say market leader at providing white collar within the current environment there will be administrative services both into the public and no spending to save private sector so what that means in practice is that we go in to client organisations, whether they are central government, local government or within the financial services, and we look at a whole array of back office operations that they have and we look at how we can work with our clients and with the people within those clients really primarily to achieve three objectives. To the first and foremost of those, I know we are living in austere times and everyone is actually focused on cost reduction. But the way that we often look at things is the first and foremost objective that we have is to provide a measurable improvement in service quality and the key word there is measurable. If you look at a lot of the things that happen within a lot of those client organisations, when we inherit them frequently they haven’t been measured and therefore the quality of what is being delivered to the end user and its community has not really been that specific so what we are looking to do is to provide objective improvements in how that delivery can be achieved. The second thing that we look to do is to provide contractual certainty regarding cost reduction. In the olden days I think there used to be an expression “spend to save”, I think it is fair to say within the current environment there will be no spending to save and that the findings will be required immediately so we would typically go into client organisations and look at what we can do even in the current financial year to take 10, 20, 30, 40 per cent outside of their budgets. What they would also do is transfer that risk from themselves to Capita, so to give you an example, we might walk in to a central government department that are spending £50 million a year on a back office activity and we would contract with them to do the same thing but better for perhaps £35 million a year, so in that example a 30 per cent saving. That is a very typical amount. It sounds like a big number when I put it like that but actually we have got years and years of experience and a whole range of different options that are open to us that will allow us to do that. The third thing that we look to do when we go in to organisations which is a slightly more subtle point but it is actually looking at how we can run those services that create a wider economic benefit beyond simply savings so as an example one of the things that we do, which you won’t thank me for and I probably won’t get out of the building alive, but I collect your TV licence for you. When we went on to take on that service, aside from a not particularly efficient service and a pretty de-motivated workforce, what we also found were high levels of fraud and evasion so our offering to the BBC was yes, we will actually do this 30 per cent cheaper and to put that in numeric terms that might mean a £25 million or £30 million a year saving but actually the thing that was much more important to us was to have the right systems and processes and controls. That said we are going to drive down the level of fraud and evasion so actually the prize to the BBC was a far larger one than simply the amount of savings that we created. So whether it is processing health and benefit claim forms, whether it is managing an incapacity benefit service, all those things where you can create a wider benefit above and beyond driving up service quality and reducing costs, is very much what we are about. You won’t see that much in the papers because the papers really only like writing about all the things that go wrong but actually outsourcing in the last 25 years in the UK has been a great success and there is case study after case study of it working where private and public sector parties are working together in partnership and have delivered a great end result and I’ll give you just one example. The reason why I give it is that it is quite a long standing one within Capita, it has stood the test of time but we were one of the first organisations in the UK to take on a central government department lock stock and barrel, an organisation up in Darlington called the Teachers’ Pensions Agency. That body was responsible for processing 1.2 million pensions for existing teachers, past teachers and indeed retirees. A very simple equation that was created was one, we gave an immediate 25 per cent saving to central government, secondly over time we took eight miles of paper based files, turned them into an electronic format and gave a far, far higher level of customer service. If you had been a pensioner, previously it was taking two or three weeks to get a response to a query, through us 95 per cent of those enquiries were resolved in 10, 20 seconds over the telephone. The third thing, which again is very interesting and important I think because I think we’ve got a lot of fear sitting within the public sector at the moment, was we genuinely enriched the careers of the people that transferred over to us. We had 430 civil servants that came in to Capita, today that same service is actually run by 200 people so in terms of productivity we have half the number of people running that activity but the reality is that we have made virtually no redundancies because what we’ve done is built a far wider business to the point that today Capita is the largest pensions administrator anywhere in the world and that contract was one of the foundations to it so those employees have had the opportunity to reskill, develop their careers in a way that wouldn’t have been possible in the civil service. So one of the messages that we want to get across through this process – I presented this morning at Civil Service Reform and it was quite clear that in that audience at the moment there is a huge culture of fear and anxiety running through the civil service and I think what we need to do, we need to actually alleviate some of that and we need to educate people about some of the benefits that can come to try and move things forward in a more positive way. There are lots of things that need to change to www.reform.co.uk 147 Public sector productivity / Reform make these things happen. We talked about culture which is fundamentally important, there needs to be some significant changes also to the way that procurement is undertaken. To be frank some of the procurements that we see are taking two years, that’s a nonsense, the thing needs to be driven through with much more pace, much more intensity and also a greater propensity and attitude to take risk. There is too much fear of making mistakes and that needs to go. In summary, the government has set down some pretty stringent challenges in terms of the 25 per cent cost reductions that they are looking for and we at Capita are pretty optimistic they are achievable. We are optimistic it’s achievable without decimating front line service and there just needs to be the will and intensity to make it happen. Amyas Morse: I think it might be useful to just give you some of the findings of a report we did recently where we provided most of the survey work or rather a report by the Health Select Committee where we provided most of the survey work and I am going to be a little bit detailed about this because I think it is quite relevant. It is speaking of commissioning by the PCTs and let’s bear in mind that in the health context we are talking about £80 billion of commissioning by Primary Care Trusts so this is a quite significant set of numbers. Some of the findings were that If we are going to have a commissioners are not lot more contracting, we on an equal footing have got to make sure with providers and that the terms are right, don’t manage the that the framework is right, relationships well but that there really are levers the relationship between providers and and controls commissioners remains unbalanced because they don’t have enough commercial leverage or incentives for commissioners to control providers, in other words they don’t pay by results for the most part. Weaknesses between direct commissioning and planning, failure to ensure that the [inaudible] is managed effectively including processes between relationships, commissioning leading to a loss of economies of scale, lack of knowledge and evidence, decisions to commission not being based on hard evidence, lack of data and analysis, failure to make the best use of data that already exists or obtaining data that is needed, lack of quality management, that is to say commissioners not being sufficiently professional and also the difficulty of [inaudible], re-commissioning of services from providers who have a record of under delivering. And that is just one report but it is not unrepresentative. I think therefore really what I want to say to you is I think that, and at the NAO we are very positive about commissioning as the way ahead but you have to bear in mind that if you are not equipped with the tools to do commissioning properly as a customer, as a commissioner, you are going to be in a world of difficulties so we have got to address that. If we are going to have a lot more contracting, we have got to make sure that the terms are right, that the framework is right, that there really are levers and controls and in the last year, having gone from being the Chief Commercial Officer of the MOD to spending a year looking across 148 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform the public sector in the NAO, I have been struck by the lack of what I call tough commercial thinking when it comes to contracts. If you are making a long term contract it is worth a great deal of money, normally in the private sector if you do a contract like that you expect sustained efficiencies year on year and you have got a very clear ability to get that. If you have clauses in contracts entitling you to something, you enforce them.You don’t give up on your rights under a contract because of a bit of a hard luck story or something of that sort. If you transfer risk and you are paying a contractor to transfer risk, you have to be sure that you can really transfer that risk and that it doesn’t come back to you again when the bad day comes and we have seen, in the last year I have seen quite a lot of examples that when something goes badly wrong, the contractor is placed in a position of saying either we’ll have a failure or you will need to help me out here and very often the public sector steps forward and helps out. I just think we have got to be realistic about putting skills where we can, making sure the skills we use are really capable and if the skills aren’t capable, then creating tough enough frameworks so that they can substitute for those skills. So I am very happy that we do more commissioning but we have really got to toughen up if we are going to be able to do so in a way which gives a good account of spending public money. I just want to make those points. Not at all negative, I think a lot of things that Capita is talking about are good practice and capable of being done but what we are looking for in our job of holding to account the good spending of public money, we want to know that what the public sector or what the tax payers funds are being spent on genuinely represents the best that could be reasonably expected to be achieved with that money and that the people who are transacting business, whether it is commissioning business or direct provision business on behalf of the public, that is to say the public sector, are doing so with some real skill, rigour and good information. Without those basic bits of equipment, no matter what format you use, you’ll find that value leaks away, so we need a strong rigorous approach from whatever model we adopt. Thank you. Nick Seddon: I am guessing this means that you don’t want to give £80 billion of PCTs money to a bunch of GPs. Amyas Morse: I can’t prevent speculation! John Fingleton: Thank you very much. Well this issue of how to reduce the deficit and improve public services is essentially an exercise in trying to de-monopolise the public sector. We know from outcomes in the private sector, that when one removes monopolies not just prices go down but costs go down so it is really about driving efficiency but also driving alignment with the customer and I think seeing that quality and efficiency are best achieved by aligning the incentives of the provider with the incentives of the customer, I think Colin talked very nicely about some examples of that within the public sector. The issue not really making the case for that, the case is easily made because of the big effect on productivity growth that will occur, the effect on reducing the level of public expenditure and the improvement in quality of services. So there is a big price to be gained but the question is how to do it in practice. That’s what often eludes people and I want to address four points, four lessons in thinking about doing this in practice. Point one is that private sector monopolies are not necessarily better than public sector monopolies, this is a lesson from the early privatisations that we have learned. There is going to be a trade off between outcomes, competition and efficiency on the one hand and revenue from privatisation on the other hand and even ensuring that the right choice is made on that. Amyas’s point about making sure that when things are commissioned, that you don’t build the monopoly rents into the contract is how the OFT would look at that, basically saying we are going to build those monopoly profits back into the contract, so we must be wise to the fact that the other side could be bargaining over a monopoly position, just replacing the public sector monopoly that was there before. A bit more transparent perhaps but not enough benefit. The second lesson is that we need to think about exit if we are going to get entry to work. We know that in private sector markets the biggest innovation; the biggest improvement is driven by new entry. That can be start up companies but it can also be successful companies in one market moving across into another market. We need to think about all of those models of entry but entry only works if the inefficient players who are currently in the market have a threat of exit. It doesn’t mean that they do exit. The threat of exit itself can be enough to make them shape up. A really nice example of that in aviation was the state owned airlines in Europe. We introduced competition for a long time but as long as governments kept giving state aid to those airlines they never got more efficient, they just used the taxpayers money to compete against the private sector airlines. It was only when Sabena went bankrupt after 9/11, that the commissioner let someone go bankrupt that suddenly the airlines began to reduce costs and British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia and so on all got their costs down by 20 per cent to 30 per cent within a year or two when they saw the threat of exit. Politically that means that if we want to drive efficiency and help education in other areas, then inefficient suppliers will have to go out of business and that is going to be a political call but it is the only way you are going to allow efficient players to take over that business and simply the threat of that can often be enough but sometimes you are going to have to see somebody going to the wall for others to get to the programme. The third lesson I think is about consumer choice. I think consumer choice can play a really important role in ensuring that the market delivers what the customer wants in driving competition but we do need to be cautious in doing that in not just assuming that choice will work. So for example choice in healthcare is not fully embedded yet. In 2008 only half of the patients surveyed were aware they could exercise choice over hospitals, of those that were aware only 5 per cent used the NHS Choices website so that’s only 2.5 per cent of the total and the rest relied on their GP for advice. So we need to recognise that consumers have transaction costs, there are information disadvantages but insight into behavioural economics is not all negative, it can be used very positively. For example when the government introduced employment zones in 2000 they allowed people who were looking for jobs, the long term unemployed, to choose their provider and they found that increased attendance levels of engagement and reduced resentment, so those are the psychological effects around choice and can actually operate in a very positive direction if they are correctly managed. We published a detailed paper on the role of choice and the practicalities of using choice to deliver things, it can be a really powerful instrument but one has to recognise that getting consumers to make informed choices in new areas requires a lot of very careful design of the market. My fourth point is about the level playing field. We are in an environment now where we have both public organisations entering in services in competition with the private sector and private sector organisations competing to provide public services and we do not always have a level playing field in this regard. OFT has published today a report on competitive neutrality and dealing with some of these issues but to give you a specific example, we did a report on the commercial use of public information three years ago and this was looking at the way in which the owners of public information do not make that available to private sector competitors in the markets in which we compete and we particularly turned our fire on Ordinance Survey and the whole issue of competition in the delivery of intelligent mapping and other things, which is a big marketplace which we did not think was being allowed to operate freely. That’s just one tiny example of the kinds of problems we’ve had with lack of competitive neutrality and if we don’t have competitive neutrality it is going to be very difficult for new entrants, sufficient entrants, and whether they are public sector or private sector shouldn’t be the issue, If companies feel they are to actually drive that efficiency and that goes protected by some to the airline unlevelness in the playing back example. If as the field, they are not going to airlines were, if feel threatened by companies feel they are competition and they’re not protected by some in the going to get more efficient unlevelness playing field, they are not going to feel threatened by competition and they’re not going to get more efficient and you are going to fail to deliver the programme. So the four lessons are don’t replace private monopolies with public monopolies, including when you are commissioning; make sure exit works as well as entry and in that context of commissioning do not give incumbents too much of an advantage when you are re-commissioning. It may all work well the first time round but then they are going to have an incumbent’s advantage the second round. Think about choice carefully, it can be a very powerful tool but don’t grandly assume it will do everything for you and try to get the level playing field right. Thank you. Nick Seddon: Thank you all very much, that was some absolutely fantastic material there for us to talk through as a group www.reform.co.uk 149 Public sector productivity / Reform and I hope we’ll have some questions or comments from everybody. I will take away the importance of competition that brings granularity at the local level and the way that better commissioning, the message from different speakers about the responsiveness that better commissioning leaves us with in terms of the services that we’re getting. I left feeling quite optimistic as well about how to get commissioning more effective and we’re not in a world of difficulty that Amyas described. So to questions. [Questions are inaudible due to being too far from the microphone] Nick Seddon: Fantastic, thank you. So we have got a question about what is fair reward, a question about what else can be outsourced, what else can be commissioned out and a question about level playing fields. Then we have one about pensions and then one about the private sector and voluntary sector. I wonder if Colin, I can ask you to reflect on the voluntary and private question. [not clear enough to transcribe accurately] Colin Barrow: [Inaudible] … to engage appropriately with stakeholders. I mean there is quite a lot of money involved in that and for an institution to get together five gangs of GPs … it is quite a big ask to do it. So there is some work to be done there but again political control has transformed … Family recovery is a process that we use to wrap around a troubled family to deal with alcohol, drugs, prostitution, petty crime, offender management, mental health and housing all in one go, focusing absolutely on the problems of that family.. So instead of saying get out of my office you say get in to my office, I want to give you a gold card, you are my best customer. We approach it that way and the savings that generates are not … We have a few savings like that. So I would like to get access to some of that money but if I did, I wouldn’t want them to … I have another job, I am also the chairman of a voluntary committee, the National Autistic Society which is not a voluntary organisation. Of course it’s a charity but it is a … and 85 per cent to 90 per cent of its activity is providing services under contract to local authorities. I don’t think that the National Autistic Society is in the same category as the local knitting circle or the local community … It is entirely staffed by volunteers with one organiser having a few … We are very good at dealing with grown up businesses and we have got to get better at that if we are going to deal with the Big Society. Paul Pindar: If you have a proper competitive process which is well managed then fair reward is economically the most attractive solution and whether that then culminates in a margin of three, five or 20 per cent you could argue is irrelevant. So I just think well controlled and fair competition would be a starting point in terms of an economic downturn. I often think there is more heat than common sense around this whole margin issue and one of the reasons I say that is it is one of the comments that gets made about Capita. Amongst the outsourcing industry our margins are some of the highest. Now that doesn’t mean to say we are expensive, it could actually be because we are very 150 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform efficient so if anybody wants to come and have a look at my office, as plenty of clients have done, they describe it as reassuringly grubby! I say that half in jest but we deliberately run our business as cheaply as we possibly can as that makes us competitive and therefore there is a cost saving we can then pass on to our clients. If other people want offices made of glass and chrome that’s up to them but I don’t think that should be a driver on what’s a fair risk in exchange, if you like, for services being provided. Having said all of those things, we have a very simple tenet when we are entering into a long-term contract. We want to make a profit, that’s our reward for having a substantial transfer of risk and also for making a substantial amount for them. We do not want to profiteer. We genuinely don’t want to profiteer and the reason for that is because we want a relationship to last 20, 30, 40 years and not just the first term of the contract. We have been very good at that so therefore if we think there is a risk over time as we drive out more and more efficiencies that we are going to profiteer there are two very good protections that we give the client, even if they haven’t asked for it. The first one is to give open book accounting. I can never understand why a contractor is not prepared to share all their accounts with their customer. They should be unless they have got something to hide. The second thing is actually to offer profit share. So say to the client, actually when we put our prices together, we understood what the task was, we understood what the risk was and we expect to make a margin of 12 per cent. But if through further efficiencies we will share it with you and what we immediately do in those circumstances is we turn the relationship from a client-customer relationship into one where everyone is sitting around the same table with the common objective that says thank you for the service, now what can we do to make it more efficient for both parties? Again it is more than just theoretical, we do pay out profit share to our customers so the mechanism is getting everyone on the same side of the table and it works. That’s my answer that that. Nick Seddon: Could you consider a time when Capita runs a police force? Paul Pindar: I am a great believer in process and understanding what you do well and what you don’t do so well and one of the things that we really understand is what I’ve talked about and the areas Capita are involved in around efficient management of large white collar workforces. We’re about removing where possible paper, they are around eliminating unnecessary processes and streamlining where necessary so with the best will in the world, I wouldn’t have the first idea of how to manage a police force. Other parts of government, I mean one of the things that I think is exciting about the current government and what they are trying to do, I just think the range of opportunities is very, very wide. There are a huge number of reputable parties that are going online across central government and a lot of them could be streamlined, some of the operations for the DWP have got nearly 100,000 people and a lot of those are replicable tasks where you could get much stronger disciplines around them and make them more customer focused. I’ve got just one comment on the voluntary sector question. I am in a similar but not identical place and that is I think we need to look very closely at what the nature is of You can’t have everything, the voluntary you can’t say we’re going organisation that to help because to do it with a bang on the wants we at Capita have used head or a slap round the voluntary ear and by the way we want organisations as sub contractors. When it doing twice as quickly Cameron spoke as you did before, you have David many months ago got to think that through a about engaging with little bit. That’s just basic the voluntary sector much more widely on psychology some of these I said we need to be careful for two reasons. I also chair a charity and we work very, very hard raising money from the public to apply to those charitable objectives. Running a business is risky and we don’t always get it right and sometimes you lose money. I don’t mind, well I do mind but I mind less losing shareholders money. I think if you are in a position where you are going to lose donors money on a commercial enterprise, that’s a very, very difficult place to be. The second thing is, and it is absolutely right, if you have a contract you have to be prepared to enforce it and there are things in our 25 year history we have got wrong where the customer has said, frightfully sorry chum, you have screwed up and we want half a million pounds. We are a five billion pound public company, I don’t like it very much but every now and then we have to write out a cheque and you have to be very careful of the implications with a third party what the sanction is for failure because you could put that charity out of business and I’m not sure that is something that anyone would really want to do so I think the voluntary sector has a role but you have to be really, really cautious about how you engage with it. Amyas Morse: I think they were all good comments and I quite agree, you go in a way to the point about risk transfer. It’s crazy for government to pay to transfer a risk which isn’t really being transferred. In other words you are not going to put a charity or a company at risk and if you are halfway through building a prestige project and you can’t afford to admit it was a failure then even if the contractors have fouled up, you are not going to penalise them, you are going to let them off or support them. You have got to be honest about that and price accordingly. Everything that you are describing, I have just come from speaking at Civil Service Live and I was talking … what I was talking about was cost reduction and what I was saying to them is you need to flatten out your organisation, you need to take paper out of your processes, you need to start using information to manage but please at the end of all this a lot of public sector is going to be public sector. We would like them to reform the way they run themselves to be more efficient and to actually learn to run in a more modern organisational structure and we really need that to happen. It is not saying we don’t need outsourcing but it is not the answer to everything. We are not going to be running departments by outsourcing the whole thing. It may well happen one day but not any day soon and to be equally frank, if you have an unreformed cost structure and you hand it to somebody to outsource and they do the things you should have done, you are going to pay for that because they’ve done it, you haven’t and therefore they have realised the benefits.You’ll get a share of them but you won’t get all of them which you should have got if you had actually tackled it yourselves. So please let’s not … I love what you say and again in terms of sharing gain, in terms of having break clauses and performance clauses and all that, it’s great if Capita offers that to the public sector and I admire and respect you for doing it but really what should be happening is the guys and women in the public sector who put those contracts in place shouldn’t be willing to lift their pen unless those terms are in the contract. So it is great if you are doing it out of the goodness of your heart but I think you need people who are hard nosed enough to make sure it happens every time. These are things that can be done which will contribute to getting down costs in the public sector and they are just good business practice. The problem about it, if I may, is you have got the describing things which are not uncommon in private sector organisations, your problem is instilling that into public sector at the same time as you are making massive changes in the headcount, getting a lot of messages about terms and conditions and you can wish for all these things but we have got to wish for them in a joined up way. You can’t have everything, you can’t say we’re going to do it with a bang on the head or a slap round the ear and by the way we want it doing twice as quickly as you did before, you have got to think that through a little bit. That’s just basic psychology. John Fingleton: I’ll just start where Amyas left off and say we shouldn’t ignore those parts of the public sector that will always be monopolies and making them efficient is really challenging. One of the big difficulties there is in how you are allowing the incentives. There’s a lot of punishment potentially for not doing it but not an awful lot of upside if you get it right and that’s a challenge I think for government to think about, giving rewards, courageous decision making in those areas. On the point on pensions and more generally on the level playing field, we need to be forward looking about it. We need to get away from the stranded cost arguments. It may be necessary to compensate for stranded costs but competition is always going to be about forward looking incentives. We need to be thinking about investment based on future return not on the basis of past handovers or legacies and therefore we must look forward and [grandfather] quite a lot of the past in these areas and think how do we create a level playing field from this point on rather than try to undo the areas of history as it were and live with some of those. We see lots of examples where if you have to resolve the past in order to resolve the future. You never resolve the future and I think that’s a lesson to www.reform.co.uk 151 Public sector productivity / Reform make that link in doing that. These incentives will ultimately be driven by those and that touches on the voluntary sector. I think it is really important in terms of level playing field that we are blind to the business model. Different business models will do well or less well at different parts in time, I like to think that parts of OFT are more efficient than some of the private sector firms we deal with. We are certainly a lot cheaper and I’d like to think if I was in the OFT in the private sector I could certainly compete with some of them quite effectively. So where is the public sector, where is the voluntary sector and where is the private sector? I do have a concern that government doesn’t allow itself to become hostage to a very concentrated outsourcing market. I mean two small examples have been of concern recently in the current environment. The government is not There is a big mistake of allowed to buy in the government cutting off consultancy services its nose to spite its face to but some of the larger players have been concentrate only on a small offering to do that for number of large players in free and if they do that supplying those services. for free they get a toehold and then when it comes to awarding a contract that does have money going with it, they will have incumbency advantage. We already have enough concerns for example with audit services; we have just looked at insolvency for example. In the private sector there is a big mistake of the government cutting off its nose to spite its face to concentrate only on a small number of large players in supplying those services. That means it shouldn’t all be about economies of scale and a small number of big players. We must think about how we keep medium and small enterprises on the other side of the equation otherwise I think we run the risk of maybe gaining some efficiency gains up front because you can get the scale economies but then actually losing the dynamic efficiency that comes with the fact that you need smaller companies to be challenging those big companies. A small market of four firms competing for what the government is doing would not be in my view enough competition and certainly it is very bad when the government is creating those sorts of examples. On the fair reward point, it is exactly the same point about risk but I do think the government needs to think about introducing extra unnecessary uncertainty at a time when people are bidding. We have something called Consumer Direct, a really excellent line for consumers and delivers around a ten to one return. We have taken 20 per cent out of the costs, we are going out to tender at the moment to look at taking another 30 per cent out of the cost but in the middle of the bidding process the Department raised a whole lot of really big questions about where it would sit and you think, what’s this got to do with the cost? So we had to get a letter from the Treasury just dampening all that down so that the cost of the service didn’t go through the roof. So I think government needs to be joined up about adding unnecessary uncertainty in the middle of bidding processes. Also with the private sector, I mean I am concerned if suddenly you stop awarding contracts, you have to think about the cost that the private 152 www.reform.co.uk Public sector productivity / Reform sector puts in to bidding. If you make it very expensive to your bidders, and we have just done this big construction case and one of the things that we were very keen to do was to make sure the public sector didn’t delist these people because that would be cutting off your nose to spite your face. Saying okay, they have harmed in the past therefore we are not going to use them again so there will be even fewer competitors. I think we need to be very careful about not making the cost of running these competitive markets, the sort of thing that government do when they are creating a quasi market of which it can control the entry costs of the various bidders and they need to think about not raising the entry costs for the bidders and not introducing additional uncertainty into the process. Nick Seddon: Thank you very much. We are out of time and I know that Andrew is going to say some rounding up words but I wanted to say thank you so much to each of our panellists for a very interesting debate. What I didn’t mention at the start and what I should have said is that we are writing up and getting a transcription of all of the discussion we have had today as part of our submission for the spending review so all of this is really, really important so thank you. Closing remarks Andrew Haldenby: Thank you Nick. If I can just make some very brief closing remarks and try and sum up the day. What I thought we had was a real debate. We talked about whether the deficit reduction should be, if you like, a tactical one based on emergency cuts like public sector pay freezes and so on and Colm McCarthy said look, in reality that is really what’s going to happen but against that Roger Douglas and I think also Tony McGuirk said no, come on, it’s You can deliver radical structural change that change and you can really need to go deliver cost reduction even you for and as Roger said, if it does take some time in the end quality reform is what lasts.. to do it I thought Tony McGuirk was actually very persuasive, you can deliver radical change and you can deliver cost reduction even if it does take some time to do it. Then we had a debate about, as Francis Maude would say, do you have a tight grip from the centre to do this or do you devolve and Adrian Rammage was suggesting that there are costs to devolving but against that people like Bernard Jenkin were saying, no, come on, devolve because that’s how you get your innovation and Ken was saying we need competition and that is a key driver of improvement and obviously we heard that from John in this session. Then most politically Margaret Hodge said these cuts may benefit the political class if you like but there will be real social impact and you do this at your peril is where she ended but then on the other side you had Roger Douglas, another Labour politician of course, who said you can’t have equity without efficiency, the more money you save enables you to treat more people in the health service and so on. So those were the big things and then there was a huge amount of tactical stuff as well about getting it right so Aidan was saying yes, of course you commission but you have to get it right and at the moment we’re not, John said we have got to have choice but we have got to get it right and at the moment we’re not always and Judy said we can outsource but that has to be got right in the initial stages. So that gave a sense of the kind of tool kit for reformers which is absolutely valuable. In a sense this is what we do at Reform, this is our core business and the reason I think everybody has wanted to come today in such quality and great numbers is because this is the subject now the government has to grapple with and we will keep working on this. In my view the spending review is going to happen quite soon, it is not very far away, but nevertheless we will feed in, we will send the proceedings of today, we will hold a series of further events between now and 20th October including the party conferences and you will all be invited to all of those so do please keep coming and we won’t stop after 20th October and I hope this will continue to be one of the centres of thinking on all this throughout this parliament and it is because of your support and giving your time to come today so I am incredibly grateful to you. I am particularly grateful of course to our sponsors whose commitment is considerable so thank you so much because it means we can do it in a proper way so thank you very much to our sponsors and to the Stock Exchange. And my other thanks, and this is important for me, to my team at Reform so thank you very much. www.reform.co.uk 153 Health / Reform Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Programme Delivering a new health agenda NHS: new health services Managing the budget Healthy competition 08.30 – 09.00 Registration and coffee 09.00 – 09.20 Welcome and introduction Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Andrew Manning, Chief Executive, Bevan Brittan 09.20 – 10.15 NHS: new health services There is a growing recognition that some services will need to change from their current form. Hospitals, in particular, are increasingly unable to meet the needs of a modern healthcare system. This session will discuss how the reconfiguration of services can reduce costs and improve the quality of care. This session will also discuss what can be done to ensure greater integration of care and maximise clinical leadership. A panel debate chaired by Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform Dr Phillip Lee MP, Member of Parliament for Bracknell Sophia Christie, Chief Executive, Birmingham East and North Primary Care Trust Cynthia Bower, Chief Executive, Care Quality Commission Sam Lister, Health Editor, The Times 10.15 – 10.45 Keynote speech by Simon Burns MP 10.45 – 11.15 Coffee 11.15 – 12.10 Managing the budget www.reform.co.uk The NHS needs to deliver value for money. Patient expectations, more expensive treatments and an ageing population will put the budget under pressure. Controlling costs will be vital. This session will discuss what can be done to make savings and how better commissioning, management and innovation can reduce waste without undermining the quality of care. A panel debate chaired by Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell MP, Chair, House of Commons Health Select Committee Roger Taylor, Director of Public Affairs, Dr Foster Intelligence Dr Nicolaus Henke, Director and Head of Healthcare Practice, McKinsey & Co Professor Alan Maynard, Professor of Health Policy, University of York 12.10 – 13.05 Healthy competition With Simon Burns MP, Rt Hon Stephen Dorrell MP, Dr Phillip Lee MP, Rt Hon Lord Warner of Brockley, Cynthia Bower, Steve Bundred, Sophia Christie, Adrian Fawcett, Dr Nicolaus Henke, Sam Lister, Andrew Manning, Professor Alan Maynard, Mark Pearson and Roger Taylor 154 A keynote speech by Simon Burns MP, Minister of State for Health, on the new health agenda. Healthy competition can drive innovation on the front line of health services and lead to better health outcomes. However, competition is held back by barriers to entry and it is uncertain how proposed commissioning arrangements will encourage competition. This session will discuss possible benefits from expanding patient choice and encouraging the emergence of new business models for healthcare, and the barriers to these changes taking place. A panel debate chaired by Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Rt Hon Lord Warner of Brockley, Former Health Minister 2003 to 2006 Adrian Fawcett, Chief Executive Officer, General Healthcare Group Mark Pearson, Head of Health Division, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Steve Bundred, Chair, Monitor 13.05 – 13.10 Closing remarks 13.10 – 13.40 Lunch Reform will sum up and close the conference www.reform.co.uk 155 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Delivering a new health agenda / Reform The Reform team – setting the agenda Andrew Haldenby, Director, Reform Nick Seddon, Deputy Director, Reform Healthcare is an expensive business and is set to become even more so. Derek Wanless’s projections demonstrated that health costs will increase to £137 billion, or 10.6 per cent of GDP, in 2017. The challenge for health reform is not only to save money in the next few years, but to make the health service affordable for the 21st century. Dr Patrick Nolan, Chief Economist, Reform Thomas Cawston, Researcher, Reform Over the last decade the approach has been to avoid dealing with challenges by throwing more money at the NHS. As is well known the budget for the NHS doubled in real terms between 1999 and 2009 and accounted for 40 per cent of the total increase in spending in public services between 1997 and 2007. Yet rather than delivering proportionate improvements in health outcomes, too much of this increase in spending was simply eaten up by higher wage bills and over-investment in hospital buildings. The Government has set out a plan to radically reorganise the NHS. Current administrative structures will be torn down and GPs will be put in charge of around £80 billion of the budget. The jury is out on whether this will shake up the NHS so it better suits patients or whether this will be another radical “redisorganisation”, to use Alan Maynard’s coinage, without long-term progress. What is clear, however, is that, given the poor state of the public and NHS finances, this is a high risk gamble. The parlous state of the public finances means that this approach of “spending not reform” cannot be sustained. This is a serious constraint – as the rising cost of treatments, growing patient expectations and an ageing population will put pressure on the health budget and mean that the service needs to make savings of £15 billion to £20 billion over the course of this Parliament. What is also clear is that, by choosing to reorganise the service rather than grasp the nettle on how health services are financed, the Coalition has missed the real opportunity for NHS reform. An honest debate is needed on how health services are funded. Other international countries have faced the need to consider the greater use of co-payments and user charges, to define a core set of services that the public system provides and to encourage the greater role of insurance. It is time to catch up with these international debates. Achieving efficiencies on this scale from a total annual budget of £105 billion should be possible. Indeed, the size of the NHS budget means that no other departmental budget can offer the same scope for savings. There are, however, good and bad ways of saving money. Simply trimming budgets would lead to the disruption of services, more ad hoc rationing of care, rising waiting times and breakdown of specialist care. Top-down exercises to drive innovation and service redesign lead to local people feeling disenfranchised from the management of local health services. To address waste in the system and ensure that the NHS delivers value for money a new approach is needed. 156 www.reform.co.uk Professor Nick Bosanquet, Consultant Director, Reform NHS: new health services The National Health Service is the sacred cow of British politics. Party leaders proclaim their lifelong love of it and MPs vow to fight for their local hospitals, but few dare spell out the difficult realities it faces – not least, unprecedented pressure on funding in the next few years. Nothing in politics is harder than closing a hospital. Yet redesigning services is the right thing to do. It is the right thing to do in the face of the funding pressures and, more importantly, it is the right thing for the health of the population. The key challenge of a modern healthcare system is to improve the quality of life for people with long term conditions. This means the NHS needs new innovative ways to deliver treatment. Advances in clinical skill and new treatments have enabled more patients to be treated at home and outside hospitals. However the NHS continues to focus its resources on hospital care. Clinicians and NHS managers have tried to introduce new ways to provide care for patients and integrate services but too often blind opposition to change has bedevilled this modernisation. Changes to services will be most effective if they are local initiatives carried out by locally accountable managers, but Ministers and MPs often find the short term political gain from blocking closures too hard to resist. Let us hope that in the new Parliament, instead of protests blocking change, we see local people marching to reform their local hospitals and shift more care into the home. Dr Phillip Lee MP Fewer hospitals, more clinics With the rising costs of an ageing and increasingly obese population, the continual demand for better health services and the increasing costs of new medical technologies and drugs, it is no surprise to those of us who work on the “front line” of healthcare that the manner in which we deliver and receive healthcare requires much debate and consequent reform. To my mind, the way in which we configure healthcare services in this country must be based upon true clinical need and the best clinical outcomes. My decade long professional experience of the NHS in the Thames Valley has proved to me that the structure of healthcare services can impact negatively upon both morbidity and mortality statistics. Drawing upon this local experience, I will suggest that a future with fewer, better located, acute hospital sites and more community-based clinics could lead to better health outcomes for all. It is, however, not just about the supply of healthcare. The realities of the political cycle have led to the implementation of policies by previous governments to attract “positive” media coverage, often with little regard to any actual benefits to this country’s long-term healthcare provision. Clearly, it is politically easier to address perceived supply problems than deal with the population’s ever increasing demands. I would argue that unless policies address this inexorable increase in the demand for services, the future of the NHS in its present state remains bleak. It is my belief that an honest and open discussion about where the www.reform.co.uk 157 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform responsibilities for both an individual’s health and local healthcare provision should lie is long overdue in this country. Dr Phillip Lee MP, Member of Parliament for Bracknell Sophia Christie The challenge for the NHS 158 www.reform.co.uk realise significant productivity gains, which will realise the promise of better quality services, we shall need new business models and new forms of delivery. In the 21st century, in constrained economic circumstances, we may want to start with thinking about the home as the hub of healthcare, the patient as most likely to be elderly, with multiple conditions, and a user of a range of public services, and our core response to the broader population being the application of marketing and nudge psychology, to support wise choices both in staying well and in seeking help when ill. This implies a very different infrastructure for both delivery and the pattern of investment, and an ongoing attempt to develop this without fundamental review of the distribution of the essential acute infrastructure will just increase costs and promote unresponsive, unfair care. Sophia Christie, Chief Executive, Birmingham East and North Primary Care Trust Cynthia Bower Integrated care – challenges and opportunities Care Quality Commission is the regulator of England’s healthcare and social care services. It is our job to make sure they meet essential standards of quality and safety, and give people a positive experience. As the first regulator to look across the NHS, social care and the private and voluntary sectors, we can give a complete picture of care in England. So how important is integrated care? A Nuffield Trust study from 2005-08 showed that 90 per cent of people who used social care also received secondary healthcare over a three-year period. The Government expects that 1.7 million more adults will need care and support within 20 years. Growing demand and shrinking resources mean there is a real need for more, and better, joined up care to deliver good quality and safe outcomes for patients. At the heart of better care is effective service configuration and hospitals play a vital role in the care pathway. So many points of the hospital journey have an impact – admission, length of stay, discharge, information sharing with other parts of the system, and links with local social care services. When these are poorly managed they can have a major cost, both personal and financial. Many leaders in health and social care services are aware of this. Real change has taken place in policy and in practice to try to improve integration. In the most recent CQC State of Care report, we found that 148,000 people in England had access to services that helped them avoid emergency hospital admissions, compared to 80,000 five years ago. Delayed discharges from hospital fell from 3,600 a week in 2003-04 to 2,200 a week in 2008-09. This is steady progress, and it is the right direction of travel in terms of outcomes and cost. CQC’s analysis suggests that reducing emergency stays for people aged over 75 in line with the best performing hospitals would result in 8 million fewer days in hospital per year. This would provide a saving of £2 billion a year. Joined up care is a challenge for both sectors, but the benefits to the care services and people who rely on them could be significant. It needs dedicated teamwork across agencies and disciplines. It takes innovative thinking, a willingness to develop new ways of working, strong leadership and commitment. Services need to be configured in a way that leads to the best care outcomes, and not in a way that protects budgets in existing silos. In the current economic climate, this will be no mean feat. Cynthia Bower, Chief Executive, Care Quality Commission Sam Lister A radical blueprint As a message of intent, last week’s NHS White Paper looked every bit the work of a Health Secretary-in-waiting. Six years sitting on the shadow frontbench, watching a succession of Labour ministers pass in and out of Richmond House, has given Andrew Lansley the time to build a strong, coherent vision for the health service. It has made for a mission statement packed with energetic initiatives – from the NHS Commissioning Board and GP consortia to the Public Health Service and more formal local authority involvement – and laced with the new Government’s watchwords of reducing costs and improving quality. Few would deny that the NHS, for all its productive reforms in the New Labour years, has become a behemoth that happily consumes every taxpayer pound pushed its way. Efficiency and accountability have fallen by the wayside, and levers are needed urgently to drive better value for money. The Lansley vision, in its simplest form, has a more efficient NHS with GPs holding most of the pursestrings, using their front line knowledge to commission the most effective forms of care. His flabby fall-guys are the service managers, who will be subject to cost-saving cuts that will chop down the complex Primary Care Trust and Strategic Health Authority hierarchies. The extent of the reorganisation will be enormous – far greater than anyone would have thought from the Conservative or Liberal Democrat manifestos and campaign speeches a few months back. Bland statements of a more personal NHS and improved integration between primary care and hospitals have been translated into a radical blueprint that brings a more open market for healthcare providers and “quality standards” and outcome assessments that make the patient less passive recipient and more arbiter and architect of care. The energy is refreshing – coming after a period of stagnation for health policies – and some of the restructuring may work. The problem is that such sweeping change cannot avoid being costly, and will require several years of rigorous Westminster policing, starkly at odds with the Lansley mission to devolve NHS power. It also offers a model of reconfiguration that tiptoes around the elephant in the room. Bringing personalised care ever closer to people could make some hospital departments, and even entire hospitals, an unnecessary indulgence – offering services that do not cater for enough patients to make them economically viable, or safe. The idea of merging costly, semi-redundant District General Hospitals is far too emotive to be included in the Lansley script. It is, however, a reconfiguration endpoint that cannot be avoided. Sam Lister, Health Editor, The Times Stephen Hughes Realigning relationships Bevan Brittan is delighted to be hosting this critical and timely event in the week following the Coalition Government’s publication of a blueprint for the future of the NHS in the White Paper Equity and excellence: liberating the NHS. The changes proposed in the White Paper go further than any other reform since the inception of the NHS. At the heart of the proposals lies a fundamental realignment of relationships throughout the health service; placing much greater emphasis on individual patients to exercise greater involvement and control over their care. Alongside this significant empowerment for patients there is a wide range of issues affecting clinicians; most notably for GPs with their role in GP commissioning and more widely on employee engagement at its highest level through to employee controlled social enterprises. This is intended to drive a continuing revolution in quality of services. To further support that revolution a complex range of new relationships will be required between independently commissioning GP practices, NHS Trusts (Acute and Mental Health) and a range of public and private sector stakeholders in the NHS. At the heart of these relationships lies a statutory and contractual framework within which the NHS operates – changing these frameworks and the legal parameters on which they are based is one of the many immediate challenges required to deliver the reform. At the most simple level, the immediate legal issues include GP contracts, contracts between healthcare providers (GPs, Acutes, Mental Health Trusts, and Local Authorities) and GP accountability. But at a more complex level, legal questions that must be addressed concern the future ownership and replenishment of the significant NHS asset base, to new relationships with social care providers and local authorities and the challenge of achieving major change and reducing costs simultaneously. We look forward to participating in the ongoing discussion about implementation of the Coalition Government’s vision for the NHS and Bevan Brittan, with a range of other key advisors to the NHS, will continue to act as critical friends in identifying and resolving the many issues of detail still outstanding. Stephen Hughes, Partner, Head of Health, Bevan Brittan Fewer hospitals, more competition “The taboo has been broken. There is now debate about closing hospitals as an essential step towards improving UK healthcare.” Richard Vize, Health Service Journal “Today the centre-right think-tank Reform attempts to puncture the prevailing complacency with a radical programme of cuts to shift more NHS care into the community, obtain more bang and save extra bucks.” Jeremy Laurence, The Independent “Could a quarter of hospital beds be abolished? A new report says ‘yes’.” Stephen Pollard, Daily Express REFORM The first decade of the 21st century has been characterised by the realisation of the digital opportunity. Like many other fields, medicine has been revolutionised by modern technology. Medical imaging and minimal interventions have emerged as an alternative to major surgery, while new pharmaceuticals have allowed greater management of disease. The increasing role of genetics has not only allowed greater understanding of family risk, but also targeted interventions in the treatment of cancer. Public expectations have more than kept pace with these changes, with baby boomers reaching an age where they become common recipients of health services. Significant improvements in access have fed the belief that local and immediate is always best, while the constant reporting of petri dish findings as “golden bullets” have driven the perception that every death is a service failure as opposed to a natural event. These major developments have largely been adopted within a structure which has stayed remarkably static since 1948 when the nationalisation of hospitals placed them at the core of the NHS, and has locked us into a largely 19th century model of care. Hospitals originally emerged as a response to a situation of few doctors and huge demand, where illness tended to be infectious and acute and with limited treatments available other than rest under observation. They also provided a useful concentration of patients as a basis for teaching and research. However, we now manage most illness through pharmaceuticals, with the potential for chemotherapy and other sophisticated treatments to be delivered outside hospital. Access to diagnostic and interventional technology means that even invasive procedures can be carried out with minimal collateral damage and risk of infection and early rehabilitation. For example, the George Eliot hospital now safely undertakes 24-hour hip replacement, to the significant benefit of elderly recipients at particular risk of infection, pressure ulcers and confusion from a prolonged stay in hospital. Hospitals remain a key element of the system, but within an increasingly sophisticated network of care, which no longer sees the “bed” as a technology in its own right. The nature of the “problem” facing the NHS has shifted from acute intervention in infectious disease to the long-term management of chronic conditions. The greatest potential benefit is increasingly to be realised through prevention and delay of the onset of disease, rather than radical new treatments in acute phases. Much of the government activity of the last term was focused on addressing years of underinvestment through improvement within the traditional model of delivery. Access, payment by results and infection control was all about improvements to institutions within the current model (at considerable expense). Relatively little attention and less money was given to personalising care around the patient by making best use of telephone, email, community support and crucially challenging poor practice in addition to incentivising the good. In his recent book The Innovator’s Prescription, Clayton Christensen notes that it is rarely those who have dominated a mature market who successfully deliver innovation, as their business model will be predicated on traditional delivery. If we are to Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Fewer hospitals, more competition Professor Nick Bosanquet Thomas Cawston Andrew Haldenby Dr Patrick Nolan Nick Seddon March 2010 www.reform.co.uk 159 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Managing the budget The state of the public finances is perhaps best summed up by the words of Liam Byrne in his letter to his successor at the Treasury: “Dear Chief Secretary, I’m afraid to tell you that there’s no money left.” The Government has committed to accelerating the elimination of the deficit, with an emphasis more on reduced spending than tax rises. Oddly, though, it has promised to increase spending on the NHS. It is perverse to commit to protecting an area of public spending where so much waste has been identified. Real terms health spending has doubled since 1999, yet over the same period, according to the Office for National Statistics, productivity fell by 0.3 per cent on average each year. What is needed is structural reform – not just of the delivery, but also the purchasing. This is about putting money – and power – in patients’ hands. The best way to do this is to increase private contributions to health costs, in line with other developed countries. As the OECD recently found, countries with private insurance models score better than the UK on both quality and equality. As demand rises in the future, the challenge will be to meet consumers’ demands without increasing the burden on the state. Sadly, ringfencing public spending on the NHS is not the solution. It is a Pyrrhic victory that will do nothing to save the NHS; instead, the NHS, which the Government has worked so hard to neutralise, will be the great flashpoint of this Parliament. 160 www.reform.co.uk Thomas Cawston Paying for tomorrow’s health system Probably the biggest mistake that the Coalition has made has been to ring-fence the health budget. Health is not only the largest departmental budget but has also been the main beneficiary of the increase in spending over the last decade. Real terms health spending has doubled since 1999, reaching around £105 billion in 2009. Over the same period productivity fell each year by 0.3 per cent on average. Despite this the Coalition has refused to reduce the NHS budget, which means that other departments have been asked to find savings of up to 40 per cent. But even protecting health from the spending cuts that are needed to restore the public finances will not satisfy the NHS’s insatiable appetite for taxpayers’ money.The ever increasing cost of new treatments and the rising demand for healthcare fuelled by patient expectations and an ageing population will mean the NHS could face a funding gap of as much as £41 billion by 2017. For many, this funding gap means the NHS budget should be sacrosanct. But whether the budget is cut or not, the NHS will need to deliver value for money on an unprecedented scale. If the budget is ringfenced, the NHS will need to deliver annual efficiency savings of at least 3 per cent to fund rising demand. This is not impossible. Over the last decade the NHS has over-invested in the wrong buildings and over-invested in the wrong staff. Too much care is still delivered in hospitals and more than half the NHS budget is spent on staff. But this transformation of the NHS into a more costeffective and productive healthcare system will be harder now the NHS has been taken off the table during the spending review. Insulating the NHS budget from a wider drive to deliver value for money could be the very thing that destroys the service – by encouraging front line managers to believe that they can avoid taking the hard choices facing managers elsewhere in government and develop new ways of delivering services. The reality of the public finances means there is no alternative but to reform the system. This requires not only reducing waste but also releasing the potential of “disruptive innovation” that can come when new entrants develop and introduce new models of health delivery. This requires a stable investment environment, all providers to be treated evenly, and barriers to entry and exit to be reduced. But even if every lever is used to obtain efficiency in the health service, healthcare will continue to become more and more expensive. The fiscal crisis has only hastened the financial crisis facing the NHS. A taxpayer funded system is not only inefficient, it is now unsustainable and unable to meet the growing healthcare needs of the UK. The healthcare budget can be cut and should be cut, not only by cutting the waste in the system but accepting the need for greater private financing. In 2000 the then Prime Minister Tony Blair set a target to increase UK health spending to the European average. The UK now needs a new target: to increase private health spending to the OECD average. Defining the package of care provided by the state, extending the user charges, top-ups and supplementary insurance would allow public health spending to be cut. Only by doing this can we both obtain value for money and fund a health system fit for the 21st century. Thomas Cawston, Researcher, Reform Roger Taylor Health and technology The NHS is embarking on the toughest financial squeeze in its history. To implement the necessary changes it is relying on a commissioning system which almost all commentators agree lacks the skills necessary for the task. There is much debate over the relative merits of different structures for deciding how budgets are spent but no real evidence that one approach works better than another. Overall, attempts to get more for less out of healthcare systems have a very chequered history – spending on commissioning often costs as much as it saves. If we look beyond the issue of organisational structure however, there is strong evidence that particular strategies can drive up quality and get more for every pound spent. We know that defining standards and auditing their implementation can be a very effective way to get more for less. We also know that comparative outcomes data helps to raise quality. In England, we have seen top down targets achieve great success in addressing issues of major public concern such as long waiting times and infection rates. These approaches are all about better use of information – measuring performance and setting standards. But they have been applied consistently to relatively few areas of healthcare. Disagreements about access to data, reliability of information and approaches to measurement have hindered the broader application of these approaches. And while it needs to be acknowledged that the NHS’s history with information technology is, if anything, worse than its history of structural reform and commissioning, it is also true that tackling the information problem could yield greater benefits than changes to commissioning structures. How can this be done? Firstly, make better use of the existing data resources available to the NHS and stop new national initiatives that are very high cost and which create conflicting and overlapping sources of information. Second, make it clear, through engaging the public, how the NHS uses patient information to ensure quality of service. Too often, the NHS holds back from using data in this way because it is unsure of what is appropriate. The public is, in general, supportive of the use of data for quality improvement so long as they know how the data is being handled. Third, open up access to the data to improve data quality. Most importantly, this must include letting the public see their own data. Lastly, use the central control that a national health service offers to impose strict data standards, but do not attempt to impose national IT solutions or national approaches to how data is used. Roger Taylor, Director of Public Affairs, Dr Foster Intelligence Dr Nicolaus Henke Managing the budget: five themes For political leaders, health ministers, finance ministers, or, indeed, Prime Ministers or Presidents, healthcare is a juggling act. The challenge is to boost economic competitiveness and maintain a grip on fiscal expenditure, whilst trying to achieve superior health outcomes and access for patients. When it comes to healthcare, the public are fickle consumers – they rarely give credit for improvement but rapidly articulate dissatisfaction. The challenge is here to stay. Healthcare is, perhaps, the greatest success story of the last century: in the developed world, life expectancy has doubled, and quality of life has been vastly improved. As a sector, healthcare has continuously expanded its share of national wealth: in OECD countries for each of the last 60 years health spending has grown by GDP growth plus 2 percentage points. Why? Technology, ageing, and poor lifestyle choices (drinking, smoking, obesity) are part of the answer – but the most significant factor has been rising expectations. In short, as societies become wealthier, they devote more resources to healthcare. If the next century looks like the last, then more than half of GDP would be dedicated to health by the year 2100, and the United States (the outlier in terms of rapid spending growth) would see 98 per cent of GDP absorbed by the healthcare sector. This is clearly as absurd as it is impossible. So, what needs to change? The only solution will be dramatic productivity growth in health systems. Health systems face a fundamental choice: double or triple productivity, or ration access to care. Here are five themes for maintaining the budget: • Maintain strong accountability. As a general rule, systems with cash-limited budgets (e.g., Scandinavia, Australia, Canada, Spain) spend less than comparable systems which define the benefit bundle without constraining expenditure (e.g., Germany, Switzerland, US).The fundamental difference is the power to say “no” to an intervention so that financial control is maintained. GP commissioning could be a particularly successful example of this for well documented reasons. • Harness incentives and information. While various closed systems, such as Kaiser Permanente, have achieved a lot through combining powerful and real time patient information with appropriate incentives, most open regional or national systems struggle with encouraging patients to use information and become “fully engaged”. An interesting exception is Singapore, which spends less than 4 per cent of GDP for European level outcomes – which through co-payments incents patients to use services responsibly. Another example is Valencia, where 21 sub-regions serve a population of five million in a free choice model. • Seize the opportunity of payment shifts. Many systems which have experienced challenging budget periods have used shifts of payment system to apply quite significant improvements to productivity. For example, various states in www.reform.co.uk 161 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Australia reduced hospital tariffs between 1 per cent and 10 per cent upon the introduction of Diagnosis Related Groups. There are various changes in allocation and pricing regime in store in England, and all may have potential in this area. • Drive provider productivity. Many of the levers above help to constrain the overall budget growth and reduce demand, but driving provider productivity remains key. At the McKinsey Hospital Institute we observe that provider organisations show inexplicable variance across multiple metrics – including annual productivity growth. The question is how to make the rest as good as the best. • Let innovation flourish. This is a time to embrace disruptive change, to sacrifice dogma, and be as bold as we are open to new approaches. Our recent research in partnership with the World Economic Forum has shown that stepchange improvements in productivity are possible – delivering high quality maternity care for one-sixth the cost, for example – and that those who succeed share a set of common practices. Many models and solutions exist – the challenge is for health systems to allow these models to enter and to flourish. Dr Nicolaus Henke, Director and Head of Healthcare Practice, McKinsey & Co Professor Alan Maynard Doctors are the problem! Doctors are the solution! Despite large differences in culture, politics and the 162 www.reform.co.uk structure of public and private healthcare systems, their problems are similar: much of healthcare lacks an evidence base of clinical let alone cost effectiveness; there are large variations in clinical practice and “what works” is often not delivered to patients; medical errors are excessive; and there are no measures of success or whether healthcare makes “patients better”. These ubiquitous problems have been well evidenced for decades and ignored by policy makers, public and private. For instance the 1845 Lunacy Act sought to get hospitals to measure whether patients were “dead, recovered, relieved or unrelieved” and Semmelweis was advocating rigorous hand hygiene in hospitals in 1848. Sadly healthcare today has not implemented the policies of 150 years ago! Why is this? Professions were described as a “conspiracy against the laity” by George Bernard Shaw and Milton Friedman in Capitalism and Freedom concluded that “occupational licensure” has reduced both the quality and quantity of healthcare. In principle the objective of medieval guilds and professions was to provide consumer protection. In practice they inhibit it. A patient entering a hospital might expect benchmarking of potential errors such as wrong drug/wrong dose, wrong site surgery, pressure sores, central line infections in intensive care, catheter induced urinary tract infections, patient falls and other “adverse events.” In practice benchmarking is often absent as is managing these rates down to protect the patients. A patient might also expect that their surgeons were part of national audits and efforts by peers to identify outliers and continually improve practice. Often audits are voluntary and incomplete. Patient protection is absent and this is compounded by the failure of Colleges and the General Medical Council to oblige practitioners to benchmark and audit as a condition of re-accreditation. Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Whether or not government reorganises the structure of the NHS, the challenge is to ensure that “physicians heal themselves” by acting in a transparent and accountable fashion. The techniques of production engineering (e.g., “Six Sigma”) need to be used to ensure continuous quality improvement by applying existing activity data (i.e., hospital episode statistics) and emerging patient level cost data and patient reported outcomes information (PROMs). Doctors determine how resources are allocated and it is they who should be obliged to manage each other efficiently and thereby protect patient and taxpayers’ interests. Professor Alan Maynard, Professor of Health Policy, University ofYork Professor Nick Bosanquet GP commissioning: realism on implementation GP commissioning is a good aim with great longer term promise but could be ruined by the manner of implementation. To succeed it needs a realistic implementation plan – which will need the whole five years of the Coalition. At present the start of GP commissioning will coincide with the epicentre of the financial hurricane of 2011. The immediate impact will be greatest on NHS Trusts – the Operating Framework will shift deficits from Primary Care Trusts to NHS Trusts. By November 2011 it is highly likely that between 35 and 40 NHS Trusts will find that they do not have funding to cover their pay bills for the rest of the year. They will then put great pressure on commissioners for an emergency bailout. The NHS has to have the capability to manage the cost increases which are heading its way. In practical terms, there is no way that 500 GP commissioning groups can have accurate budgets by April 2012. Each group would have around 60 GPs covering a population of 100,000 patients with a budget of £115 million. In practice the funding would have to be distributed by a formula, given the lack of any accurate local information about spending for local populations. For 2011-13 there would be great insecurity about the possible appearance of deficits. Nor are the new groups equipped to drive forward initiatives to find £15 billion to £20 billion of essential savings. A more realistic approach would be to abolish Strategic Health Authorities but keep Primary Care Trusts to manage the introduction of GP commissioning. The presence of the Strategic Health Authorities blurs responsibility and the Government is right to abolish them. Some leading Primary Care Trusts should be given responsibility for developing balance sheets for business units – and informatics for increasing GP and patient choice. They should also mentor the groups – we need to find a new generation of GPs leaders. The fund holders are long gone. After some years Primary Care Trusts could be reduced in role and number – back to the 60 unitary authorities of the first Kenneth Robinson Green Paper of 1967: but now is not the time for another top down reorganisation cut off from the realities on the ground. GP commissioning could work but at present it is an aspiration. The Coalition has five years to develop a workable system for local responsibility. Professor Nick Bosanquet, Professor of Health Economics, Imperial College and Consultant Director, Reform Rt Hon Lord Warner of Brockley More choice needs more competition Healthy competition As Albert Einstein wrote “if you always do what you always did, you’ll always get what you always got.” This is true of healthcare. New ways of delivering and funding health services are needed if the UK is to improve value for money of health services and do the right thing for patients. Some people mistakenly see innovation as being just about science. However, as well as the science behind new treatments and technologies, innovation requires changes in ways in which services are funded and delivered. This innovation in business models occurs when, for example, providers enter markets and discover new ways of delivering services that are closer to the home, more convenient for patients, deliver better clinical outcomes and cost less. Research shows that competition, especially from the threat of new entrants, can be a key factor in encouraging more innovative health systems. This is why, if done in the right way, greater competition can lead to improvements in clinical quality, such as faster reductions in mortality from acute myocardial infarction, a more business-like culture and higher levels of patient satisfaction. However, competition is not a silver bullet. If the policy context is not right then competition can fail to deliver desired outcomes. Healthy competition requires a stable investment environment, government treating different providers fairly (rather than emphasising preferred providers), few barriers to entry to the market (such as differences in pension provisions) and patients to have the information on which to base effective choices. Over the past decade a stuttering approach to NHS reform has been adopted with bursts of activity on competition and choice followed by lengthy lulls. Not surprisingly many in the NHS are confused and some take great comfort from the lulls. Most PCT commissioners are still weak controllers of money and demand, with 47 per cent rated “fair” or “weak” by the Care Quality Commission for financial management in 2009-10. Acute hospitals are allowed to overtrade and create supplier-induced demand. They have scooped up too much of the huge increase in investment in the NHS under Labour. Access to services has been improved, waiting times reduced and many lives saved from killer diseases. But most of these improvements have been produced by centrally-driven targets rather than by competition, choice and commissioning. The shift of services from acute hospitals to the community proposed in the 2006 White Paper Our health, Our care, Our say has not been delivered. Too many acute hospitals are unsustainable in their present form and some would fall over financially if services were indeed relocated. Nearly 50 per cent of Acute Trusts have not achieved Foundation Trust status seven years after the legislation was passed. About 40 NHS Trusts still have historic deficits, some very large. Community health services are still attached to the far too many Primary Care Trust commissioners so there is no proper purchaser/provider split. There are few performance metrics for these Primary Care Trust service provider arms which makes market-testing more www.reform.co.uk 163 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Rt Hon Lord Warner of Brockley, Former Health Minister 2003 to 2006 164 www.reform.co.uk Steve Bundred The potential of competition attack admissions. Although successive governments have introduced market-based reforms since the early 1990s, competition in the healthcare market in England is still a relatively new concept and does not work as effectively as it could. Barriers to market entry and exit, difficulties in adjusting supply to match demand, and an inability of providers to respond to fluctuating demand by amending prices, all raise The NHS is grateful for the questions about how far these degree of protection from reforms can go. spending cuts it has been The answer is “a lot further promised by Ministers, but it is than they have gone so far.” The nevertheless feeling the pinch. The combination of rising costs Coalition Government believes the issues, real though they are, and increased demand is such can be addressed and is rightly that even before the election it committed to a more patienthad been warned of a need to focused, outcome-driven deliver savings of £15 billion to £20 billion. Now it is being told healthcare system, characterised by greater devolution and more that even that might not be diversity of providers. enough. At the same time, the Of course, competition OECD reported earlier this month that our health outcomes, alone cannot deliver everything that the public and the taxpayer including in areas such as demand of the healthcare avoidable deaths, lag behind system. But we should not those of other western ignore the potential of economies. competition to drive innovation, So the challenge to deliver quality and efficiency. more with less is as real in the NHS as in other public services. Steve Bundred, Chair, Monitor And there is increasing discussion among policy-makers about the role that competition could or should play in meeting Mark Pearson this challenge. Healthy dose of In other sectors, competition competition has helped deliver benefits in terms of responsiveness, cost-reduction, quality and innovation. But can it do the same in healthcare? Two studies published in June provide evidence that it can. LSE researchers looked at elective hip replacements and found that hospitals exposed to competition after a wave of No-one who has spent much market-based reforms took steps time looking at health services to shorten the time patients were can be in any doubt that they in the hospital prior to their are riddled with inefficiency. surgery. This resulted in a Services are over-used, decrease in the overall length of under-used and misused all the stay without compromising time. It seems a matter of patient outcomes. And a study common-sense that a healthy led by Carol Propper of Imperial dose of competition could do College London and the wonders to sort out the more University of Bristol showed that extreme cases of inefficiency. greater competition results in But health systems have a habit better management, which in of kicking apparently sensible turn leads to improved clinical reformers in the teeth, with outcomes such as better survival common-sense leading to rates from emergency heart perverse outcomes. International evidence is that realising benefits from competition in health systems is immensely complicated. In most markets we would assume that price competition would be a main driver of efficiency. But in the vast majority of OECD countries, healthcare services are free of charge for patients or have uniform prices (and copayments) set at the national level. Only a few countries allow physicians and hospitals to charge patients prices above reimbursement levels and “statutory copayments.” and most often only in some circumstances (e.g., Australia, France and Ireland). Competition could be on the basis of quality, rather than price. Giving users of health services the freedom to choose providers would lead them to choose the best providers, even if they have no financial incentive. This sort of choice was common in most insurance based health systems, but countries have often not provided the information necessary for it to influence quality. Only five (of 31) OECD countries indicate that information on quality is made available for physician services, while seventeen report information on quality for hospitals (on process, outcomes and/or patient experience). However, information on quality is seldom used by consumers. Patients value choice very much, but most often choose to be treated by local providers and seldom use information on quality. Worse, extended user choice of providers and high density of physicians favours induced demand, leading to physicians becoming more responsive to medically unjustified demands from patients (who can shop around until they find the provider responding to their wishes). Perhaps it is not surprising to find health insurance companies trying to steer patient choice, providing patients with incentives to register with a primary doctor acting as a gate-keeper (e.g., in Belgium, France, Germany, and Switzerland). None of this means that the common-sense view of health services is wrong; rather it tells us not to apply competition indiscriminately, nor to expect it to achieve miracles. Using payment systems to encourage efficiency; being open to private (both for-profit and otherwise) providers; developing information on quality: none of these will dramatically transform the fiscal landscape and free up vast amounts of resources. But they do have the potential to improve the quality, flexibility, and satisfaction that patients will get from the health system. Mark Pearson, Head of Health Division, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Adrian Fawcett Time for an intelligent partnership At General Healthcare Group (GHG), we believe that key to improving healthcare in the UK is not only about empowering people to take more control of their medical decisions, but also incentivising them to do so. This can be achieved through not only better education and awareness of the many care pathways available in the private sector but also by offering tax breaks and co-pay for those who choose to utilise these options. By encouraging those who are financially able to do so to use private hospital facilities and services, we will help to effectively relieve some of the great burden on NHS resources, freeing up more time and capacity for those who are in most need of publicly-funded care. The healthcare debate has historically positioned the private healthcare sector as a “fail safe” – for example, in helping the NHS reduce waiting lists. But, now the time is right for the private healthcare sector to have a proper seat at the planning table – we have expertise and capacity that can make a real difference in delivering timely healthcare in a clean, efficient manner which benefits everyone. GHG is looking for an “intelligent partnership” between the NHS and the independent sector. The creation of a more predictable environment for the independent sector will lead to increased investment, innovation, efficiency and most importantly improved outcomes for all patients – whether treated in the private sector or the NHS. GHG is also seeking a level playing field which requires all providers to meet the same level of compliance and adhere to the same level of scrutiny and regulation. In the next few months, GHG will come forward with solutions to enhance the sector and to ensure that independent healthcare makes a significant contribution to the health of the nation. Ultimately, GHG is judged on the quality of our services and the quality of our patient outcomes. It is these simple tenets that in the end will shape GHG’s continuing success and partnership with the NHS. Adrian Fawcett, Chief Executive Officer, General Healthcare Group Dr Paul Charlson Ten Years Younger Practice based commissioning (PBC) was last year characterised as “a corpse not for resuscitating” by the English National Clinical Director for Primary Care, Dr David Colin-Thomé. Now one year on we have a patient who is going to be resuscitated but hopefully will look like the result of a Ten Budget 2010 Taking the tough choices “A specimen Budget to be published tomorrow by the exciting and intelligent think tank, Reform… Reform outlines cuts that will spark a reflex of horror in most politicians. However, they also observe economic realities.” Simon Heffer, The Daily Telegraph “Charging patients a ‘token’ £10 could save the NHS £1.6 billion by 2014, the centre-right group Reform said in a controversial report published today ahead of next week’s Budget.” Daily Mail “Experts cited by Reform, the think tank, say £20 billion could be cut [from the NHS budget] without harming patient services.” Editorial, The Sunday Times YearsYounger makeover. The NHS budget will be squeezed, requiring efficient ways to limit costs but still deliver high quality care. It is generally accepted that some secondary care functions could be delivered in primary care at reduced cost. Patients also favour more localised care. It is for these reasons that PBC in the form of GP commissioning is worth resuscitating and maybe given a full makeover. Why did earlier efforts for PBC fail? GPs had scant incentives for the time required to devote to the project. Primary Care Trusts were unwilling to allow GPs the freedom to innovate as they feared a loss of financial control due to the lack of accountability of PBC groups. The data available was poor, which makes commissioning decisions difficult. Added to this there was a conflict of interest for GPs who could be both providers and commissioners.To top this, the last Labour Government and GPs did not have the best of relationships. It is little wonder initiatives have failed and the “corpse” was moribund. The new Coalition Government has rightly recognised that GPs are well placed to be in the driving seat of reforms and patients, given the right information, can direct REFORM difficult; but the information that is available suggests they have scope for approaching 20 per cent efficiency savings. There is now a danger that weak community service providers and failing acute hospitals will seek to save themselves by vertical integration, thereby reducing competition further. NHS regulation has improved and exposed shortcomings in NHS Trusts but there is no effective economic regulator who can drive competition, particularly where there is persistent failure. Those who overspend have been bailed out repeatedly and given many chances to improve. There is a reluctance, across the political spectrum, to grasp the nettle of service reconfiguration when changing circumstances make a hospital unsustainable in its present form in case politicians get “Kidderminstered.” The scope for competition was diminished by a political intervention in 2009 to say that the NHS was the preferred service provider, which hardly encouraged new providers to come forward. The default setting of the NHS is local public monopoly with little challenge until the four to five years at the end of the Blair government. As the NHS moves from feast to famine the competition engines need a further revving up. This is particularly the case in failing specialist hospital services, community health services, NHS pathology and primary care in deprived areas. To do this requires replacing most existing PCT commissioners with a more robust system involving effective GPs, a more commercially-aware contracting process and a few larger agencies all overseen by a regulatory framework to prevent abuse. There is a growing appetite by the public to exercise choice but this is being frustrated by inadequate information and insufficient diversity of providers. More choice needs more competition and more speedy replacement of failing and unsustainable providers. Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Budget 2010 Taking the tough choices Dale Bassett Thomas Cawston Andrew Haldenby Dr Patrick Nolan Lucy Parsons Nick Seddon Kimberley Trewhitt June 2010 their care to suit them. There are of course inherent risks in the idea. The inexperience of GPs as commissioners, the potential for conflict between local clinicians and the reluctance of some to take part in what will be a compulsory scheme are some major issues. How to deal with failed GP consortia and risk-reward dynamics will also need to be worked out. However, this is a potentially exciting change for the NHS provided GPs are prepared to grasp the opportunity. In my view there needs to be a fundamental change in the role of GPs who should no longer be seeing patients with mild self-limiting illness, in order to release time to manage complex illness and develop their commissioning role. Perhaps at last with the new changes this can happen. For patients this too represents a valuable opportunity, but they too must change by taking more responsibility for their healthcare. Empowerment and education through better information is a vital part of this process. I am hopeful with the right care the “corpse” can not only be rehabilitated but can look ten years younger. Dr Paul Charlson, GP and Chair, Conservative Medical Society www.reform.co.uk 165 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Transcript Andrew Haldenby: Welcome to our conference on Delivering a new health agenda. My name is Andrew Haldenby and I am the Director of Reform which is an independent non-party think tank whose mission is to find a better way to deliver public services and economic prosperity in the UK. This is the fourth in a series of conferences that we’ve held after the election in each of the big public spending areas. We were wanting to hold them because the challenge for this Parliament and indeed for this Government is so great. The challenge of reducing the deficit, the challenge of eliminating the deficit while still seeing public services improve, that challenge is such a great one that we wanted to bring together the people that matter from Ministers to practitioners, public sector, third sector, Health is the big one private sector, policy makers and journalists. isn’t it? We wanted to bring them all together under one roof to talk it through and I have to say we have succeeded in our previous conferences and we have succeeded again today. This is another excellent group of people who have given up their time to come this morning so thank you very much indeed. Specifically on the subject of today’s conference, I mean health is the big one isn’t it? Health is the biggest budget, the biggest public service, the biggest employer not just in this country but in many, many European countries. It is clearly the biggest political challenge given the sensitivity of health services and with the recent White Paper, it is the most ambitious part of the Government’s public service reform agenda that it has so far revealed so I would say this is a particularly important discussion today. Clearly I am thrilled that we have a range of speakers who have the seniority to take us through these various aspects of this crucially important subject. Firstly, would people mind not only putting their phones on silent but if you can turn them off please as that will not affect the recording equipment at all. But just to go through the programme, we will start with service redesign which our Reform research indicates is absolutely essential in the new circumstances and clearly given the White Paper I think we have to discuss whether the new ideas around GP commissioning consortia will help to drive service redesign. Then we will have our keynote speech by the Minister of State for the Health Service, Simon Burns, and I will introduce him in due course. Then the second panel session will give us the ideas of what we need to take out – 20 per cent, 25 per cent or 40 per cent or whatever the number is – that we need off the budget, whilst at the same time improving patient care. Again we need to decide whether the new GP consortia will have the incentives to do that and then lastly we will talk about competition and its role in increasing innovation and driving value through the system. We have to note that yesterday in the FT the British Medical Association said that they thought the new GP consortia would actually be a block on competition because GPs tend not to refer, particularly to the third and fourth of the sector so we must talk about that. 166 www.reform.co.uk So with all these developments I think we are doing this just at the right moment and I am very pleased that we are doing it today. Just so you know, we are recording this conference as we have done for all of these conferences, we will transcribe it and then send them in to the Treasury as part of our submission to the Spending Review. So if there is something that you want to get off your chest for George Osborne to read or Danny Alexander then just make sure you say it in the questions and they will see it directly. Because this event has some extremely generous sponsors we have been able to produce it properly for a big senior attendance and most importantly we are going to benefit from their intellectual capital. Roger Taylor of Dr Foster Intelligence, one of our sponsors, will speak on managing budgets; Adrian Fawcett of the General Healthcare Group will speak on healthy competition and our other sponsor who is hosting this today, Bevan Brittan. Andrew thank you so much for hosting us with such great hospitality today. I’m sure you all know that Bevan Brittan is a successful law firm that has three specialties; one of those is healthcare and has become one of the centres of thinking on the development of health policy in this country. So Andrew, can I kindly ask you to give your opening thoughts. I’ll give you this mike to put on your tie and then you’ll be properly recorded. Andrew Manning: Thank you Andrew, I would just like to echo his welcome to a distinguished group of speakers and guests. We have got a very full programme today and we’re trying to keep things moving and I think we have got about 100 people in a room designed for 80 so we’re doing our best to keep it cool. We are particularly delighted to host this. Bevan Brittan and its predecessor firms have advised the NHS since its inception on matters of governance, procurement, people, property, you name it, issues relating to the law, we’ve advised on it. So I think we are very well positioned to advise and support the What can the health development of health market learn from other policy, and the change industries that are going and challenges that the through lots of change? health market is going to go through, that will be discussed today. As part of our commitment we have actually, earlier this week, offered Steve Hughes our Head of Health on a free secondment to the Minister so we do put our money where our mouth is to support the sector. We are also producing a range of legal briefings on issues relating to the sector and if any of you would like to get those, if you would leave your business card in reception while we get coffee we can arrange for those to be sent through to you. Now I guess I am a bit of the warm-up man and I thought what can I contribute today? Because I need to be honest with you, I’m not a health specialist. I have run several businesses that provide services to the health market. I am also not a lawyer but what I have done is spent about the last 15 years managing service businesses of various kinds going through change. What struck me reading today’s themes. things about changing demographics in the market, about changing customer needs and expectations, about development of new services [break in recording for a few seconds] … and managing a budget, budgetary pressure, are themes that lots of markets are going through and that lots of organisations are having to face at the moment. So one point I think is worth making is what can the health market learn from other industries that are going through lots of change? I also want to share with you an experience I had in the health service last year. I had kidney stones about nine, ten months ago and ended up going into the A&E department of three hospitals within a two week period. At the end of one I was given a customer satisfaction form to fill in and it said, how well did we do? I suddenly realised I was in a pretty unique position of having experienced three hospitals in a short period of time so I could actually comment and compare the different hospitals. There is lots of best practice but my experience was different in every single hospital, bits were good and bits were not so good in each of them, so there is a big opportunity to learn there. Finally I would just like to talk about the whole theme of change. That is somewhere where I have got some experience and we need to think about people’s desire and ability to change and that’s going to depend on the attractiveness and the ability of the status quo compared to the Monetary cost and attractiveness of the new psychological cost, is it model. Then people will worth the pain of change think, well what is the cost of getting there? to get where we want to Monetary cost and go? Have we got a map psychological cost, is it to get there and have we worth the pain of change to get where we want to got leaders we want to go? Have we got a map to follow together? get there and have we got leaders we want to follow together? If we don’t think of those things as well it won’t happen so again I put it to you. We are going to have a lot of vibrant debates today about medical solutions, about service solutions, there are legal issues, there are practical issues, there is ideological debate. Please don’t forget the issues of change, because if we forget that and don’t have a programme for change, all the good things you think of won’t happen and won’t be delivered. So with that, I’d like to thank you for all coming to today’s conference, hopefully you will enjoy the experience of the day and our hospitality here. NHS: new health services Patrick Nolan: The challenges posed by the poor state of the public finances are well known and so there’s no need to repeat those here, but there’s also the challenges that the White Paper have thrown out to us all, particularly with the need to develop and think about the GP consortia. So certainly change is going to happen, it’s just a question of thinking about how we make it work and getting the best out of it. We couldn’t have a better panel; we’ve got Sam Lister from The Times, who’s been with that newspaper since about 2000, and he’s done a lot of work on the NHS as it’s gone through its good times and its bad times. He has also focused a lot on the potential of new technologies, which is very, very central for change. We’ve got Sophia Christie, who’s the Chief Executive of BEN PCT, that’s Birmingham East and North PCT, who kindly invited me up to see an event that they have been running over the last few days and how that whole community is getting together and talking about the need for change. There are some very exciting things that are being done up there. We’ve also got Dr Phillip Lee, who’s a relatively new MP, the MP for Bracknell, so congratulations Phillip. Phillip also brings a wealth of experience as a practicing GP, so it’s so important to be able to cross both those worlds. And we’ve got Cynthia Bower, who I’m pleased to hear has a Birmingham connection, having both worked there in health roles but also having graduated from the university there, but for the last few years has been the Chief Executive of the Care Quality Commission. So, an excellent panel, but I’ll hand straight over to Phillip, who will provide five minutes, so we’ll have five minutes from each of the speakers. I’ll be relatively ruthless in my timekeeping, and then after that we’ll go to questions from the audience. Phillip Lee: Five minutes for me to talk about the National Health Service, where can I start? Well let’s just start with who I am. I’m a new Member of Parliament for Bracknell in Berkshire and I’m also a practicing GP. By chance I happen to practice in the same PCT region as my constituency, which I think causes challenges for local health providers because I don’t always accept the first thing that’s said to me by the PCT or indeed the Chief Executive of the NHS Trust, because I’ve already experienced the reality. It’s interesting that you said it’s important that I’m here today as a politician and as a doctor. It’s also terribly difficult to straddle both professions, because I think if I could redesign healthcare, one thing I would do is de-politicise the provision of healthcare. I know that’s not actually possible, but it would be nice if we could take the politics out of healthcare because I suspect the healthcare that would be provided would be different if politicians were not involved, but we are where we are. Now I think its time, I’ve got a few minutes, let’s set the scene here. Where are we now in 2010? Well diabetes is getting more prevalent, 25 per cent by 2025 of the entire NHS budget. We have significant costs on ischemic heart disease and things like vascular disease. We have about three quarters of a million people with dementia in the country, and they’re the ones we know about, and its going to get worse. And we have about 20 to 25 per cent of our population, both men and women, who have a BMI of 30 or more. So all those things drive costs, and that’s before we’ve even started talking about new drugs, personalisation of care, the concept of, say, a drug that would work on my cancer but not on Andrew’s. It’s quite a challenging future for any healthcare system, let alone ours, to try and deliver care that people are going to be happy and satisfied with. I think the issue about change is quite key actually because it’s an emotive subject healthcare. We go through our lives and we don’t do anything and we don’t have any interaction, particularly us men who don’t tend to see a doctor from about 15 to 50, and suddenly we need it. At that point it suddenly becomes that much more important, and I think that is also a www.reform.co.uk 167 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform difficult thing to manage, because obviously people view where their hospital is as being their blanket, their safety blanket, it’s where they think they’re going to be looked after the best, and the reality is that isn’t the case always. So just a brief summary of what we’re supposed to be talking about in this session is the reconfiguration of services – a great integration of services – and a maximising of clinical leadership, with the impossible hope of reducing costs and then increasing the quality of care. Pretty challenging. All I would say in terms of reconfiguring of services in hospitals, the direction of travel for provision of care, costs are going up. Staffing hospitals becomes ever more challenging. I suspect we need fewer hospital sites but big centres of excellence at points of easy access on the transport network. I think in tandem with that one needs a community hospital network, or a clinic, or a Darzi Clinic, or whatever you want to call it. A provision of chronic care management within communities closer to people. So outpatient clinics, rehabilitation services after stroke, etc. I think if we can get on that path and take people with us, and this is where I don my politician’s hat, then we will get better outcomes, better clinical outcomes. Let me go to my local area. Bracknell doesn’t have a hospital. My constituency doesn’t have a hospital within its boundaries. Its been promised a hospital ever since it was decided to be a new town in the 50s, and its never going to have one because you need about 600-700,000 people now to justify having a new People view where their hospital. So I had to sort hospital is as being their of campaign on the basis blanket, their safety of saying ‘No, you’re not blanket, it’s where they having a hospital’. Now you’d think that that think they’re going to be looked after the best, and would have lost votes, but fact my majority went the reality is that isn’t the in up 50 per cent on a case always notional basis. What I’m trying to say is that a bit of honesty can get you somewhere. The problem I have is that I have a hospital trust serving my constituency that doesn’t provide all of the services I think it should provide, and I’m not alone in that. I’m not saying my hospital is different to any other, but that is a problem for me, because as a medical professional I want the very best care for my constituents, but also I live in the political reality of finite budgets and austerity etc. However I draw upon that local knowledge and provision of services and network of community hospitals and clinics etc., and it’s upon that that I’ve come to the conclusion that we need fewer hospitals but in better locations. And finally, because I know my time’s run out, the White Paper, the idea of pushing money down to GPs to commission services, is what we’re going to talk about at length today. It’s a significant sum of money, about £80 billion being put in the hands of GPs. Now the conversations I’ve had with GPs so far have gone along the lines that people are quite interested in doing it. Not all practices are, that’s for sure. But those that have a history of managerial excellence, of taking advantage of opportunities in the primary care sector, are relishing the opportunity. I think, to my mind, anything that pushes money towards patients, as close to patients as possible, gets my vote, gets my support. So in broad 168 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform terms I’m in support of the Government’s direction on this. I can see teething problems with practices that don’t want to take part in it, and I think that has to be thought through, and I passed on those views to relevant people. But in broad terms it is a good idea. The reason I think that it is, and it is the final thing I will say, is that GPs are plugged in to what is needed in their area. And you can travel. I’ve worked in 50 practices throughout Thames Valley; you don’t have to go very far to go from one population to another where there are completely different needs. I work in Slough, and when you go through Slough to Windsor it’s just like changing country in terms of healthcare provision. I think that you need that local knowledge in order to be able to commission the appropriate services to serve your patient population. So I think it’s the right thing to do to push it down towards as low a level as possible, because then you get more appropriate services. Anyway, I could go on and on and on, and I think its best I stop. I look forward to your questions. Thanks a lot. Patrick Nolan: So now we’ve got Sophia Christie. Sophia Christie: I’ve been an NHS manager for about 23 years. Since about 1993 I’ve been involved in GP commissioning, working at the interface with GPs. First in the North East and then across local government and the health authority and primary care in Sandwell, which is a disadvantaged community just to the west of Birmingham, and then in Birmingham. I’ve always worked primarily with disadvantaged communities, so my perspective on commissioning is coloured by that. It’s a different experience from what primary care and health services might be like in Witney or Cumbria, which I understand are the two models for how things go forward, so bear in mind that perspective. I’m not going to repeat what Phillip said, other than to say we’ve got an NHS that became the NHS it is at the point of transfer of voluntary hospitals in 1948 into a national system. We essentially nationalised the hospital infrastructure. We left primary care as independent contractors, private businesses. It put hospitals and acute care absolutely at the heart of the NHS, and that has deeply coloured all of our understanding and conceptualisation of health services. Our default position is that the NHS is the hospitals. Of course, the reality that we all experience and that our families experience is actually the majority of activity is not in the hospital. Most of our experience of health services is what happens in GP practices, buying medication over the counter in the pharmacy, and support from District Nurses, health visitors, and physiotherapists in community settings. One in five people are using a hospital at any point when all five of them are using health services. There are some real issues I think that are most immediate, that are actually about how do we begin to change our conceptualisation of health services in order to be able to realise the benefits of what we can now do and can do more efficiently and more effectively than the infrastructure was designed to deliver? So that’s about much more responsive services. Why do I have to travel up to a hospital, either taking two or three buses or struggling to find car parking in order to have a 15 minute interaction to tell me that I’m okay, when I could get some bloods taken in the community? The results can be posted on a secure site on the internet for my doctor to check; when my doctor could pick up Why do I have to travel the phone and have a five up to a hospital, either conversation with taking two or three buses minute the renal specialist about or struggling to find car what’s happening with my creatine without me parking in order to have needing to go anywhere a 15 minute interaction at all. When I could have to tell me that I’m okay, my chemotherapy when I could get some administered at home by a specialist nurse with an bloods taken in the excellent track record in community? safety. Instead I have to go and sit with 20 other people in a slightly grotty environment feeling very anxious, which isn’t going to help my health outcomes and recovery. If we move to that sort of responsive service then we do not need the number of hospital beds, hospital outpatient clinics and therefore the hospital infrastructure that we have at the moment. We’ve got that interesting tension where we have the public and patients that say what they want is more responsive, more appropriate services, but are genuinely afraid that means they then won’t have the acute care available when they need it. And Phillip has made the point already; the reality is that the sort of acute care that does now operate in hospitals and is needed really requires a much higher level of infrastructure. It needs to be much more intensely specialist and requires much more investment in significant infrastructure.You know, keeping up-to-date on the Limax, keeping up-to-date on the latest radiographic imaging is very, very expensive and to get the most out of it we need to concentrate it into particular areas. We need doctors that are doing lots and lots and lots of the same operation, seeing lots of people with the same rare diseases in order to be able to treat most effectively and appropriately. So I think the case is made for change. The challenge is how do we have that different conversation with the public and with ourselves? Because within the NHS we have got massive vested interest in maintaining the historical infrastructure. That is the way to find a consultant; I attract research money, I attract pharma interest, I get to be flown business class to South Africa, that is the way, if I’m a hospital manager, that I increase my salary. Well I’ve got a really big budget and I’ve got lots and lots of beds, but the whole way in which the system is currently set up incentivises 1948, not 2008, and that’s a real challenge for us. I think that raises some very significant questions about the environment we’re now going into. If that’s the scale of the challenge, is that best done by fragmenting commissioning? Can we really expect GP consortia to be able to collaborate at a scale that will allow them to take out swathes of infrastructure? My experience of working with GPs has been some fantastically innovative and creative people who absolutely want to do interesting things. But they tend to want to do interesting things for about 300 people at a time and that does not allow the local hospital to make changes.You can’t close wards, shut down outpatient clinics, close entire sites on the back of practices or even groups of practices making marginal changes. Actually all that does is make the system more inefficient. Part of the reason the NHS was so bloody cheap is because we largely restrict the numbers of contracts and the numbers of transactions in the system through commissioning through larger bodies. The moment we go back to the sort of activity we had in fundholding, the administrative costs go up significantly because you just need a whole load of administrators to churn through the contracts. Now that’s why the American system is 20 per cent overhead, whereas we’re more like 8 per cent. There are some real issues around this. Are we going to be able to achieve scale in innovation that will allow us to change infrastructure? Will GP consortia engage in market shaping and alternatives to medical intervention in the way that PCTs have been experimenting with? Our experiences of innovation, telephone based care delivered by competent or trained nurses, consultant trained physiotherapists who are able to do orthopaedic, triage conversion rate of seven out of ten going through to surgery whereas GP conversion rate is one out of ten, have been massively resisted by the majority of our GPs, for very understandable reasons. They believe that they, as medics, know best, and have been quite concerned about the idea of understanding the talent, skills and capacity of other elements of the healthcare system. Hospital colleagues are significantly resistant to chemotherapy at home. One of them actually said to a commissioning manager, ‘Well I need my private practice, what I do is I offer my private patients chemotherapy at home, what am I going to do if you start doing it and if they can get it on the NHS?’ There are some real issues around the embedded interest in the system and how we might collectively rise above that. I think there’s some challenges in this as well as some opportunities, and the opportunities are real in terms of engaging that professional creativity and imagination. But there are challenges around how do we begin to do that at scale, how do we do it in a way that really takes costs out of the system, and how do we use the professional credibility of our medical colleagues to lead that different conversation with the public? Just at the point we potentially compromise that credibility by associating them with budgets and with financial decisions I think is going to be a very real challenge for us all. Thank you. Patrick Nolan: Cynthia, okay? Cynthia Bower: Thank you very much. I couldn’t work out whether my microphone was working or not. Patrick Nolan: Would you mind? Just because we’re recording. Cynthia Bower: Just talk amongst yourselves. Well I hope that works, people generally don’t have problems hearing what I say. Well thank you very much for inviting me. I’ve probably used up my five minutes now so I can sit down. Thank you very much for inviting me, my name’s Cynthia and I’m the Chief Executive of the Care Quality Commission, which is the regulator for health www.reform.co.uk 169 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform and social care for England. I think the Birmingham connection should be working well, because I think I’m going to try and pick up actually where Sophia left off, if that’s ever possible. The thing that I started to think about, to think about what I was going to say this morning is, well the The opportunities for opportunities for redesign have been there redesign have been there for a very long time, just for a very long time… in the way that Sophia’s so why is it that we’re described, so why is it not making use of them that we’re not making use in the way that we can? of them in the way that we can? Rather like Sophia, my background is in the health services, in working with primary care and with GP commissioners, and I am a fan of GP commissioning and I do think it is going to make a difference, albeit I accept some of the challenges it’s going to have to face. I want to say four things; first of all that we need to strengthen the position of the patient and their carers in the system. We all know that the experience of being ill is a disempowering experience, and there’s some evidence, and you would imagine it intuitively anyway, but the more ill you are the less you feel like taking control. So people, for example, with a cancer diagnosis don’t necessarily rush to the internet and start looking at the doctors that they’ve been sent to, to see how competent they are. One of the things that we’ve been focusing on as the regulator is how we can, and this is the only plug I’m going to give for CQC, both address the service user or the patient, because of course we work in social care as well. The patient is the main audience of information about quality of care. How effectively we can get information from them as a source of information about quality of services that they’re receiving? From the beginning of next year, we will publish, as much as we can, live information about the quality of services, starting with 400 NHS Trusts, so that the public will see the information that we have, which is hundreds and hundreds of data sources for the NHS. The information that we have that makes a judgement about whether or not the services that they’re receiving are good enough, but also we’re working both with patients as individuals and with various user groups. Of course we’re going to acquire HealthWatch through the White Paper, so that’s a very exciting opportunity for us to understand what information patients want to receive and what will be useful for them to look at on the internet, for example that will help them understand about the quality of the care they’re getting. The first challenge around redesign is to what extent are we genuinely engaging patients at that decision making, and to what extent can we empower patients through the system to make more effective changes based on their own part? The evidence is that they will make other choices or they make a different range of choices, particularly in the field of social care for example. And that’s the second point that I wanted to make, that the NHS has much to learn from social care, about the use of advocacy to support people making choices. If you meet people who hold personalised budgets in social care, and I meet them all the time, the ones who’ve done it effectively are the ones who are supported through local government advocacy schemes or voluntary organisations to help them make decisions about the care that they should be receiving. 170 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform They help them make decisions about quality and choice, range of services that might be available to them, and to therefore help them make more imaginative choices about what’s available. That’s my second point, that if we are going to encourage people to make their own choices and use the patient power to drive change, then we’ve got to think a lot more about advocacy and support for people in doing that. Macmillan Cancer is a good example of an organisation that employs expert patients, Cancer Voices, to support, to give advice and advocacy support to people with new diagnosis of cancer. But local authorities have done an enormous amount of work in this area. Of course, GPs themselves constantly act as advocates for patients in this area, but we’re not going to leverage the patient voice and choice in the way we need to unless we can think about ways in which people can be supported to make those choices in often very difficult circumstances. Most people go into the healthcare system assuming that it is safe, it is a good experience, that the doctor sitting in front of them is the best possible doctor, or the nurse sitting in front of them is the best possible nurse, and we don’t automatically think about how we can make choices and exercise control in that area. So how we support people to do that is going to be incredibly important. Now the third point I wanted to make, leading on from that, is that the more holistic approach you take to people’s problems, then the more imaginative solutions you tend to come up with. Social care, for example, and of course if we are going to redesign services we have to think about social care in the way that health services are formed. I was at a social care conference, I think it was the day after the White Paper was published, and I was on a panel, I’m always on a panel, giving forth my random views on things. I was asked what the greatest challenge was for the social care system, and I said I thought it was GP commissioning and social care getting hold of the possibilities of GP commissioning. Then in the debate that went on, which for an hour, nobody raised it, nobody. Social care is no more accustomed to thinking about healthcare than healthcare automatically thinking about social care. Social care isn’t comfortable with the notion of care pathways. The NHS loves care pathways, we’re very happy when we’ve got someone on a care pathway, going somewhere. Social care don’t like that. They think it’s too limiting in terms of thinking about people’s problems, it’s not individualised enough, and as a system we’ve got very little information about what good integrated care looks like. Now I know Sir John Oldham’s done some work on this in the Department of Health in terms of what key performance indicators we might look at that show whether integrated care pathways are working well. But at the moment we’re too used to measuring success in terms of institutions and we don’t really understand what good integrated care looks like, because of care pathways. Now, sorry, this is another CQC plug, we are committed to looking at patient outcomes as the main measuring tool, as the way we focus as a regulator, is to look at what outcomes the care is achieving. It’s not in the processes, but look at whether or not the care people are receiving is the right care. And increasingly trying to get information from patients and service users about the degree of satisfaction with their care, and whether or not they think the system was on their side and working for them. Badly configured care delivers poor outcomes for people. We see that constantly in the State of Care report that will be published in the New Year. We have calculated that about £2 billion could be saved by the NHS if the whole NHS reproduced the best discharge arrangements from the best hospitals, removing the duplicated costs in terms of occupied bed days in hospital. So we can publicise the good quality of care issues. The regulators have been given huge powers by government. We can close services down that don’t meet the requisite quality standards. We’ve got enormous powers to operate if we’re given the right information, and clinicians can support us in understanding what that information is about and what are acceptable levels of care. But we constantly see that we don’t get even the basics right of integrated care. In the State of Care report we said that 50 per cent of GPs who are still sending don’t get adequate discharge information from hospitals. Well Badly configured care when we set up delivers poor outcomes fundholding, the big for people thing the fundholders were saying was they wanted to get proper discharge letters and they’re still not getting proper discharge information. We did some work with nursing homes recently and one in five of them said that they didn’t get proper information about healthcare associated infections. So people are moving in and out of nursing home care with infections. And they weren’t getting proper communications. They said the notes, clinical notes from the hospitals, they never saw them. We really aren’t getting the basics of integration right, even after all this time. The fourth thing I wanted to say is that we should never make too many assumptions about who the biggest users of care are and who we need to focus on. When I was in the West Midlands with Sophia we did a piece of work with UnitedHealthcare on risk stratification of the population to see who the most needy users of the healthcare system were. What we discovered, it wasn’t elderly people with complex co-morbidities. It was alcoholics and drugs users who were chaotic users of the health service. I think our most needy user was an alcoholic from Dudley who was 40 times more likely than anyone else to arrive in a local A&E. We have to think of very imaginative responses to people like that. There are heavy users of health services who we’re not necessarily thinking about systematically. I saw a great presentation the other day from a PCT in North Lincolnshire, where they worked with a group of young people who were literally going to A&E every day, who were serial drug and alcohol abusers, and they set up an alternative system. But of course it requires support from the local authority looking at other opportunities for people, housing, training, counselling services. It wasn’t simply around health service response. Never make assumptions that your service redesign is going to focus on particular groups, there’s whole hosts of needy groups out there that we’re not necessarily automatically thinking about. Patrick Nolan: Sam Lister. Sam Lister: Thank you very much. I’m coming to the platform to speak from the outsiders’ viewpoint on reconfiguration, having not been involved in the politics. I’ve had quite an interesting experience over the last three weeks which has made my outsider’s position even more outside, because I’ve been stuck on jury service at the Old Bailey just across the road. So when the White Paper came along I wasn’t reporting on it, I was simply watching. I was with a jury waiting pool who were pretty much a cross section of the population. It was quite interesting because there I was, and I think they all looked at me slightly quizzically after, because we had everything from Heat to The Economist in the jury room, and I was sitting reading a White Paper. I think my views were taken slightly less seriously from that point on, but on one of the juries I was sitting on, there were several of them, and if there was any message that did come out is that concise speaking is a fine art. What did very much come out was on one of them there was a nurse, and she saw me reading the White Paper and she sort of said ‘Oh you’re interested in the NHS?’ etc. We had a chat, and her response, and this was about three days after the White Paper got published, her response was ‘Well we weren’t expecting that were we?’ I was like ‘Well you work in the system and we’ve had a few outriders from the Tories in terms of where we knew the direction of travel might be’, and she was like ‘Yes, but we really weren’t expecting that, we weren’t expecting anything so radical, so ambitious’. Andrew mentioned the most ambitious part of the public sector reform agenda, and there are big issues that come with that. We need the reconfiguration. We know that a much more integrated system, as the other panellists have sketched out, is absolutely vital. The issue that come with it is cost, it always is. And you can argue that when there’s a crisis moment, a financial crisis moment as some of the politicians view it, there’s no time for a novice. No wonder GPs are slightly anxious at the thought of taking on sort of semi-CEO roles as they envisage it in the new format that is a daunting prospect. If I was a GP, say, for instance, in Surrey, where there was a substantial health deficit, would I want to be taking on a project that might have £50 million, £100 million worth of deficit on its books as effectively a CEO persona? Absolutely no way, I wouldn’t want to touch it, I’d be very happy with how things are. There’s going to be problems with engagement on that front. The other issue is that with that sort of change you do get centralisation, however much the Coalition Government insists that we do want to devolve things away from the centre. When you’ve got a change programme that is this radical, people are going to need their hands held, people are going to be needed to be guided. It is going to take years worth of quite close monitoring and channelling to be able to get that through. So that would be one point I’d make. The other thing is, just very simply, I think everybody is agreed as to where the direction of travel needs to go, it’s the extent of the vision that I think is possibly the thing that concerns people, and it does. You know, the GPs, as the people in the front line of this are without question concerned. The other issue that I find slightly concerning, and again sort of speaking with a lay hat, is its very refreshing to hear Phillip talking about the absolute obvious www.reform.co.uk 171 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform need for hospital reconfiguration. We do not need as many DGHs, and DGH in the sort of Tory lexicon has been a pretty protected species up until now. So it’s refreshing to hear a little bit of that viewpoint represented. I found it depressing that Andrew Lansley came out and had the run-in with Richard Sykes over the NHS London reconfiguration. That actually is a reasonably well thought through project that has had a lot of time and energy in it, and you don’t really want to alienate all the people that are pretty vital to doing these sort of reconfigurations straight out of the trap. So we will have another flashpoint coming up soon, because we’ve got the paediatric cardiac surgery reconfiguration, where there we have 11 centres around the country, exactly as the rest of the panellists have pointed out, too many of them. They need to be pooled, they need to be merged, they need to have larger groups of doctors seeing a larger patient caseload and have a greater pooling of expertise. What that will probably mean is things like the John Radcliffe Unit in that very vocal, very middle-class part of Tory middle – England will probably have to close. The local doctors are not going to like it, the local population is not going to like it, it should probably go to Birmingham… [Yes.] …it should probably be incorporated into the Birmingham infrastructure. But the issue that you will then run into is that on the Lansley formula there will be a lot of dissenting voices for that, and how does that get implemented? I think there’s a few bad precedents being set in terms of how actually some of the reconfiguration will be brutal and it will, by its very nature, upset people, but it is necessary. My final little point would be that the media, myself and my colleagues, have a big role to play, because it will be big, glaring hospital closure headlines when units merge. When is a merging not a merging but a closure? And if you’re talking about paediatric cardiac in Leeds and Newcastle and they all have to go to one or the other, that normally gets translated into ‘Well services have been closed in Newcastle, services have been closed in Leeds’, they may have actually been pooled. So we’ve got to be quite sophisticated in the way that narrative is conveyed to the public and that it doesn’t appear that is just the pips squeaking and everybody slashing and burning, because it’s not going to be like that, it needs to be a fairly sophisticated dialogue. Patrick Nolan: Thank you. Now we’ve got about 20 minutes for questions, so what I’ll do is I’ll take a group of three at a time. If people want to put up their hands and we’ve got a roving mic for this. And if you could say who you are and where you’re from, and also, please, could they be questions and not statements. Andy Cowper: Andy Cowper from Health Policy Insight. The White Paper is betting on the three Cs; choice, competition and commissioning. What is the panel’s evidence of the effect of the three Cs on integrating care? Patrick Nolan: I think three Cs, yes? 172 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Pippa Anderson: Pippa Anderson, health economist from Swansea University. The White Paper mentions world class healthcare, so can you say what is world class? Is this a benchmark, and actually do you really need world class healthcare? Is really quite good, good enough? another independent board. I am somewhat concerned about that, because that’s actually what the last Government did ad nauseum in terms of it keeps pushing away difficult decisions to ministers because of fear that it would have political ramifications. So that’s all I’ll say on the NHS Board. Malcolm Durham: Malcolm Durham, FD Solutions. The question seems to still hang in the air, how can we incentivise anybody to make these changes, and I wonder if the panel or others would like to consider the position of ordinary trustees, who would be the people making the final decisions? They’re in the position of having a lot of risk and very little to gain. Could they be absolved of that liability or could there be a specific programme set up that makes a directors and officers liability protection, which is a known scheme within the employment sector? Patrick Nolan: Sam, given the reference to the importance of good journalism and incentivising could you maybe pick up on that, and your feeling on some of the others as well? Patrick Nolan: Well three very good questions. Maybe if I start with Phillip, how do we incentivise people to make these changes? Phillip Lee: By people, you mean doctors, yes? Incentivising doctors, is that right? Well ultimately, GP practices, there’s a balance here. The great majority of GP practices are in existence to provide the very best care to their patients. But they are businesses, and ultimately I think that the way this has to work is that people need to get paid more money for taking on more responsibility. So I hope within that budget, I truly do hope that the very best GP practices with the best GPs, both clinically and managerially, are going to get rewarded for taking on this responsibility. The reason I say that is because I know from experience that they will not employ managers unnecessarily. PCTs have employed in In terms of world class, excess of 20 per cent of bring it on extra managers in the last 18 months. And I’d just say, just in reference to journalism, I look forward to hearing responsible journalism on healthcare. I don’t see much evidence of it. My local newspaper reported the White Paper as being bad for jobs, which maybe asks the question ‘Well I thought the National Health Service was there to provide care, not provide employment?’ So I think, going back to your question about choice and competition, I think yes, but it’s got to be incentivised, and yes, that’s got to be by money. In terms of world class healthcare, I’d love world class healthcare, particularly if I was to be diagnosed with cancer or just had a stroke. I’d love to be nearby to a 24 hour manned stroke unit, because I don’t live near one, and I would love to be next to an oncology unit that was able to prescribe the very best drugs for me, I don’t live near one of those. So in terms of world class, bring it on. And in terms of the trustees, I’m not so sure I understand this question, is this more trustees at this new NHS at the top, is that what you’re referring to? I’m not sure. I’m not so sure I know enough about this issue to comment to be honest with you. I personally, having called for de-politicisation of healthcare, I’m always a bit suspicious of taking significant decisions away from politicians when it comes to and pushing it out into Sam Lister: Sure. I would love there to be as much responsible journalism as possible. There is also the problem that makes the point of the politicisation of the health service and health issues, which I fear will become the norm for closures in the health Choice is always service. It won’t actually problematic because you be that the journalists do see time and again, all quite often are reflecting views of the local MP, the polling suggests and all the in the local community the vox popping suggests group, campaign group, that actually people in the etc. So I worry slightly, end want to be treated at and also I do feel that the example of their local hospital down worst politicising in the health the end of the road service was the Tories over social care and the death tax before the General Election, which I think even Andrew Lansley himself would admit was pretty much the low ebb of the entire social care debate. So I would hope we can, if we can remove the politics out of some of those decision making processes, one would hope that journalism would reflect in a more balanced form the actual calculations and why it seems the best for patient care. I mean, on the issue of how do we ensure that this choice and competition etc. make for a more integrated system? Choice is always problematic because you do see time and again, all the polling suggests and all the vox popping suggests that actually people in the end want to be treated at their local hospital down the end of the road. And also that GPs will refer to that local hospital that they know well, and even if that local hospital is not the best hospital and it is not going to provide the most comprehensive and integrated care. So that is a concern I think does need to be addressed, and we need to work out a way of making the general public more alert to and more educated about the sort of complexities of the health system, and communication I think is absolutely vital. One of the things, I think there are many things that are interesting and positive about the White Paper, there are many big blanks, and one of the biggest blanks I think is how all this data is conveyed back to the general public? How do they make these choices, how do they work out where they want to go for their healthcare, how we can work out where the competition is and how we fuel all that? It’s very difficult for them, and Cynthia’s organisation plays an absolutely vital role in that, and that is a more clear-cut way, but you have things like the quality standards that are going to be set out by NICE. I’ve asked Andrew Lansley ‘Where are those standards going to be published, how will we see who’s meeting those standards and who isn’t?’ and he said he thought it might be put out by the NHS Information Centre. I was like ‘Well they’re a pretty small outfit and we’re talking about a lot of organisations and a lot, 150 standards over the next five years, do you really think its the NHS Information Centre, or was this something that occurred to you in the last 20 seconds?’, which I fear it probably was. I mean, those are the sort of blanks, that sort of communication element is absolutely vital. Patrick Nolan: Okay, Sophia, if you could pick up on that because I think its one of the interesting things about what you’ve been doing in Birmingham, communicating that engagement? Sophia Christie: I would like to pick up on that issue of choice and its relation to the competition and commissioning, and also the issue about world class services. I think one of the issues about getting the information out there is we measure what we thought was previously important, and we measure where we have previously invested in our infrastructure. So we have a lot of data, not intelligence, but we have a lot of data about hospital based activity, because we collectively at the NHS invested in expensive patient administration systems through the 80s and into the 90s in hospitals. We did not invest in the proper patient information systems in community services, and they do not exist, and it is very, very difficult to understand what is happening in the community. So all of the guff that’s been talked in the last ten years about NHS productivity going down is a reflection of the fact that the expenditure’s gone up but the only thing we can measure is activity in hospitals, and given we shifted a shed load of it out of hospitals, it looks like its more expensive. And for anyone who knows anything about the system knows that that is not intelligence, that is just data that hasn’t been very well processed and there’s big chunks of it missing. Cynthia has already talked a bit about the lack of information, that’s the increasingly important information, so what actually happens as a result of activity. You know, payment by results is possibly the greatest misnomer we’ve ever had, you know, its got nothing to do with results. We have no idea whether the fact that someone was admitted three times in the last six months of life made any difference other than disruption and distress to that experience. We have very little information in the system about whether patients feel better, and the information we do have when we’ve done audits actually suggests that for many interventions they don’t, increasingly the proportion of patients who are satisfied after a cataract operation is limited. We know that Payment by results is there’s all sorts of issues possibly the greatest surgery, misnomer we’ve ever had around prostatectomies, and the extent to which men going for that surgery understand what the possible downsides may be, which are in many cases very likely, and then real distress after surgery when they discover they’re impotent or incontinent. So real issues about how are we framing interventions for patients. Do they really understand what they’re consenting to, have we got information in the system that tells us that was really www.reform.co.uk 173 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform a good value intervention, and how do we begin to gather that? Some of the attempts that have been made in the last couple of years are very, very limited. The National Patient Survey, I have to say, I don’t think it’s worth the paper it’s written on. You send out a 20 page document to semi-literate populations, of which, I mean, I’ve had to fill in one of them and I found it difficult, you know, I’ve got two degrees, yet it’s a completely ridiculous way to try and seek feedback and information from people. We’ve been experimenting in partnership. We have a partnership with Dr Foster Intelligence which is called Prime, which is a programme for relationships, intelligence, metrics and equality. It’s targeted on tackling inequalities, and we’ve We have got to be very been trying to look for creative about how we in which we can engage with people, how ways generate both more we understand who our intelligence locally target audiences are, and which is meaningful, which really tells us how we frame the we need to know communications for those what to make decisions. different audiences We’ve also tried to use it as a way of thinking about how we build a different relationship with our public and patients, and I think that’s the area where we really need to start thinking about choice, and choosing off their menu of providers is largely meaningless for most people who are using services. We’re still talking about the majority of users being a generation who do default to the local hospital, absolutely in good faith, that they believe that every doctor is exceptionally good and will work in their best interest. It’s great they have such faith, but it is not going to make them very informed consumers. What they’re much more interested in and feel much more capable is engaging in the conversation on is the style of service, and how they want to receive it and what it might mean for them, and I think that links back to Cynthia’s comments about advocacy and how we frame information. You know, we not only have a local kind of average reading age of The Sun, which is about age six, we also have innumeracy levels at the same level. Most people don’t understand what a percentage is, so there is no point us giving information about percentages.Hospital standardised mortality rates anyone? How meaningful is that to most of the population? If we’re serious about this, then we have got to be very creative about how we engage with people, how we understand who our target audiences are, and how we frame the communications for those different audiences. The conversation I would have with one of the guys, I think he was probably about 18 years old, who’s already significantly dependent on alcohol, needs to be a very different conversation about health and health services than the conversation that I had with the 80 year old who’s just fractured a little femur. So thinking about who are our populations and how do we engage with them, is a real challenge going forward. Patrick Nolan: Cynthia, do you want to pick up, we’ve got a few minutes if you want to pick up on the advocacy issues? 174 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform Cynthia Bower: I’d hate my remarks to go unrecorded in the case study. I’d better have something interesting to say. Again, just picking up from some of what Sophia said, I mean, I think the issue about choice is terribly, terribly important. I think we sort of trivialise it at our cost really, but what’s important is the sorts of things that people want to have choices about. I completely support what Sophia was saying, what elements of choice do people want to exercise, because often its not an assumption that the doctor will be fine, its not that, its about different elements of the treatment and what’s at home and what are the professionals as part of multidisciplinary team that are working with you. So I think aspects of choice are subtle things that we need to work through and will mean different things to different people and different generations and different communities. I completely support Sophia on that, but I also want to go back to this question about world class, which someone made. I think the answer, of course we want it, has to be ‘Yes, we absolutely want a world class service’. When I get my cancer, as I undoubtedly will, the last thing that I want The great majority of to hear is that the hospital I’m going to is sort of doctors are good to some sort of professional people doing staggered regional average in terms outstanding jobs and of its ability to save my not being paid enough to life or the one year do it, working in the most survival rates, and we’ve got impossible circumstances, actually fantastic data on cancer. both in hospitals and So yes, we absolutely clearly in practice, and should aspire to be world class, and I think that is I think everybody in this what plays back into the room should remember choice question. What that at all times are the things that you absolutely should be able to take for granted about your service, the service that you’re getting, and what things should you be able to choose? I think the sort of playing off one doctor against another isn’t, that’s not the decision we should expect someone to have to make. And actually the system, just sticking with cancer for a moment, the system knows an enormous amount about cancer services and what does and doesn’t represent acceptable care. So are we going to be blind enough to say ‘Well actually…’ As I said, the regulator’s got the power to shut down services more rapidly than any other part of the system ever had, so are we going to be blind enough to say ‘This level of care is unacceptable. Its not the question of you making a choice, the system will decide for you, but that hospital can’t go on giving that sort of surgery or we can’t treat that very rare cancer because its just not good enough any more’, and that shouldn’t be a choice you make, that should be an assumption that you can make that the system is working for you, and that’s the bit that patients have got to really understand. Patrick Nolan: And Phillip, I’ll give you one and a half to two minutes for your final view, then we’ll be finishing on time. Phillip Lee: Well thank you for that. I didn’t go into politics to defend my profession, I’ll just say that up front, but I do feel, I’ve just detected a tone about medics, and it rather does annoy me, I’ll be honest. The great majority of doctors are good professional people doing outstanding jobs and not being paid enough to do it, working in the most impossible circumstances, both in hospitals and clearly in practice, and I think everybody in this room should remember that at all times. The key here, and I think this is the key in the medium to long-term, I’ve not heard it mentioned here, is that we’re not talking about where demand is coming from. My God, it would be so easy just to keep talking about how many different systems one can construct to get even more blood out of that stone. The reality is, it’s about demand, which is why I am encouraged by Andrew Lansley’s team talking about public health, but can we also talk about personal responsibility? We all have a responsibility in this room and in the wider population to take responsibility more for our care, and we should start talking about that. It’s all a bit mad, listening to these contributions, and I’m thinking ‘For crying out loud’. Most people, the great majority of people that I treat in Slough are in social classes four and five, are quite capable of making decisions about their healthcare. Let’s not worry about whether they understand percentages or not, they understand what its like to be sick and how they become sick. Let’s start trusting people, trusting patients to make decisions on their behalf, instead of just keeping people trapped in this post-war sentiment utilitarian attitude towards the provision of healthcare. Times have changed; times are a changing as Bob Dylan said. You know, we haven’t got a choice, costs are going up inexorably, we’ve all got to start taking more responsibility for our actions and for our lives, and if you treat people like that they will behave appropriately, because they do when I do as a doctor. Can we remember that when we’re spending the rest of the day talking about the National Health Service, patients can look after themselves better than they’re given credit for. Thank you. Delivering a new health agenda Andrew Haldenby: As I said at the beginning, this is the fourth in a series of conferences we are doing after the election to bring people together. The first with Iain Duncan Smith on welfare, then Nick Gibb on education, Francis Maude on public sector productivity and now yourself on healthcare. Clearly for a think tank it is just wonderful that Ministers see the benefit of coming to an audience like this. Not only, I’m sure, to get over your message but also to hear from a very informed group the questions that they may have and the ideas that they may have, so we are extremely grateful because I know how impossible your diary is. For those of you who don’t know Simon Burns, Simon has been a member of Parliament since 1987 but, much more importantly, he has been at the front line of the political health debate for most of his political career both, of course, formerly as Minister, also as a member of the Health Committee, and as Shadow Health Minister and now as Minister of State for Health Services. Simon, as I say, we are delighted you can give us this time so will you please give us your thoughts and then we’ll have a short Q&A. Simon Burns: Thank you. Can I first of all say that I am delighted to be here, particularly as it is the first time that the Department of Health has had the confidence to let me out of their office. [Laughter] I am also pleased to be here to talk about one of, if not the most, radical devolutions of power in the history of the National Health Service, away from the state and down to doctors and nurses on the front line and down to patients in the consulting rooms. This Government was elected on the principles of freedom, fairness and responsibility. Last week’s White Paper set out how we will bring these principles to life in the National Health Service. The combination of the Conservatives’ belief in the power of personal choice and empowering patients, blended with the Liberal Democrat belief in local democracy, will create an NHS which focuses on quality, on patients and on value for taxpayers money and an NHS which delivers outcomes for patients which are amongst the best in the world. Before I turn to the detail of how we will liberate the NHS, I want to deal with one issue which casts its shadow over everything and that is the economy. We set ourselves the ambitious but desperately needed goal of slashing the budget deficit so that by the end of this Parliament debt is falling and not rising. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor have set out clearly the scale of the financial challenge. This year’s budget deficit is projected to be £155 billion, about as much as we spend on the NHS, defence and transport combined. But think for a moment about our total debt, if we include the money used to bail out the banks, the UK’s net public debt is currently £903 billion or almost two-thirds of the UK’s entire economic output. That’s why we’ve got to act. If we delay we only store up problems for the future. If we delay we only pay more, up to £70 billion in annual debt interest alone, more than the entire education budget in this country. But most importantly, if we delay, it will not be us that are left with the debt but our children and our grandchildren. We have lived beyond our means for far too long and the time has come to face up to our responsibilities. The budget has already set the direction and later this year the Spending Review will provide the detail. On average, government departments will need to make savings of around 25 per cent, health however is protected. Some may question the rationale behind this but I passionately believe that protecting the NHS budget is the right thing to do. To govern is to lead, and in difficult times leadership means making difficult decisions about the priorities of the nation. We place health firmly at the top of that list of priorities. Protecting patients is essential but protection for patients is not protection I passionately believe from reform. We do not equate health protected that protecting the NHS status with an attitude of budget is the right thing inaction; it’s not a case of to do seeing the difficult decisions of how to save money, how to do things more efficiently or not at all, as being somehow not our problem. Nothing could be further from the truth, as our White Paper demonstrates. The NHS is a demand-led service. If you’re sick or need help the NHS will provide. Need, not the ability www.reform.co.uk 175 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform to pay, is one of the fundamental tenets of health service, but the cost of providing this service is high and rising. The price of new drugs, new treatments and the latest technology on top of an ageing population means that spending on health and social care has increased faster than spending on other public services. Since its birth, the National Health Service budget has risen by over 4 per cent each year in real terms. Such increases quite simply are no longer possible, this means that the NHS even within the context of a protected real terms budget, must find significant efficiencies simply to stand still. Sir David Nicholson, the NHS Chief Executive, estimates that without reform we could need up to an additional £20 billion a year by 2013/14 simply to meet expected demand to the same standards as today. We will not go down the There is a practical path of paying for imperative for the NHS healthcare or an insurance to become dramatically system, with all the more productive and more efficient. As a transaction costs and inequalities of access that consequence, the way we run the NHS is going to that will result change profoundly in the coming years but one thing will remain the same – our commitment to the values of the National Health Service. Healthcare available for all, free at the point of use and based on need and not the ability to pay; values that have guided the NHS since its birth. We will not go down the path of paying for healthcare or an insurance system, with all the transaction costs and inequalities of access that that will result. For over 60 years doctors and nurses, scientists and technicians and civil servants have breathed life into those values. All have worked hard to deliver a National Health Service that we can all be justifiably proud of. Their dedication and expertise is recognised and respected the world over and this hard work, coupled with the massive rise in investment, has brought significant improvements. More doctors and nurses, more and better equipped GP practices and hospitals, but investment alone is not enough and the increases we have seen in the last few years have not, I’m afraid to say, been matched by a corresponding improvement in productivity or in what is most important of all, health outcomes. While spending on healthcare has more or less now reached the European average, the standard of healthcare sadly has not. Despite everything that the previous Government did, survival rates for cervical, colorectal and breast cancer are amongst the worst in the OECD. We are on the wrong side of the average for premature mortality from lung cancer and heart and respiratory diseases. And you are more than twice as likely to die from a heart attack in the UK than in France. Patients deserve better, the NHS can be better and with the reforms that we have set out, it will be better. The White Paper, Equity and Excellence: Liberating the NHS will create an NHS with a single clear-sighted mission to lift health outcomes so they are amongst the best in the world. It will achieve this through a radical shift in power away from Westminster and Whitehall down to patients and professionals. We need a resolute focus of attention and resources on results, not on measuring inputs or processes but a rigorous, consistent and long term focus on improving clinical outcomes. Far too often the philosophy of emphasising process 176 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform and output targets has distorted the clinical judgements of doctors. We will focus on what is really important: clinical outcomes. Of course processes are important to improve outcomes but it must be the end result that we, on behalf of patients, measure and reward, not the means and mechanics of getting there. We will get rid of all politically motivated process targets not backed by clinical excellence, we will focus on the outcomes that matter, and those that support clinical results not distort them. In place of endless prescriptive top-down targets, we will support high quality care and services, a range of quality standards prepared through NICE and will act both as a best practice guide for clinicians and as a means of holding them to account. NICE has already published the first three quality standards – for stroke, dementia and thrombo-embolism – and it will produce around 150 more over the next five years and these quality standards will cover social care as well as health. The care that will be rewarded will be the best overall care for the patient, not simply the best care provided by a particular speciality. The impact of these quality standards will be felt throughout the NHS. While services will be local, the quality standards mean that the health service will remain national. They will mean that patients can expect the same high standards of care wherever they are in the country. They will be used by commissioners when they plan and commission services, they will feed into contracts with providers, they will enable providers to be rewarded when the quality of their care is excellent, penalised if it is poor. But the change goes beyond a technocratic focus on clinically agreed care pathways; the White Paper also heralds a new era of patient power. As all good professionals know, the outdated paternalistic caricature of Dr Finlay’s ‘doctor knows best’ attitude is out of keeping with the modern provision of healthcare. The patient must be central to all decisions taken about their care. To put it another way there must be no decision about me without me. This isn’t just a cosy sentiment, the evidence from around the world shows that involving patients in their treatment improves the effectiveness of that treatment, increases the understanding of their condition and boosts their satisfaction. Patients will have more control over their own records, with the support of their doctor they will be able to choose their provider, their consultant-led team, their GP practice, their treatment, where clinically appropriate, and a host of other things. To help them make these decisions and to help clinicians to respond to their decisions, they will have access to a huge amount of easy to understand data published online. Over the next few years patients will experience an information revolution and all the way the voice of patients will help shape local services. LINKS, the local involvement networks, will become HealthWatch, giving patients a far stronger voice, funded by, and accountable to, local authorities. They will make sure the views of the public are heard when services are designed and commissioned. They will help people, especially the vulnerable, to make the most of the choices available to them. HealthWatch will be a new local consumer champion supported by HealthWatch England within the Care Quality Commission. Both will, for the first time, give patients and members of the public more powers of scrutiny over local health services. The title of the White Paper is, as I said earlier, Liberating the NHS because that is how we will achieve the real gains. We will liberate clinicians from top-down targets and endless micro management from, well, people like me! We will create an NHS run by empowered professionals, free from the shackles of central government. The NHS has received massive investment but it is also drowning in bureaucracy, we will cut the red tape and sweep it away, letting NHS professionals organise themselves locally. The responsibility of designing, commissioning and paying for local services will be given to groups of GP practices. This will ensure that the decisions are clinically-led, involving all other healthcare professionals, hospital consultants, nurses, social care workers, to design services that put patients first and are focused on improving clinical outcomes. When GPs are commissioning services they will be able to do so, where appropriate, from any willing provider. This will introduce a new level of competition, it will stimulate innovation and increase productivity within what will become the largest social market in the world. The way we pay those providers will change. We are designing a new, more transparent, comprehensive and substantial system of payment, and one that incentivises quality, efficiency and integration. Money will follow the patient, creating a huge incentive for providers to constantly improve the quality of care and, as a recent report, Death by market forces: Reform, Competition and Patient Outcomes in the NHS, concluded, the effect of competition is to save lives. Within this new environment, the role of Monitor as an economic regulator will be vital. It will act to ensure free and fair competition within the NHS social market, regulating prices and investigating both providers and commissioners who act in an anti competitive way. Local government will also have a greater role with local democratic accountability introduced to health service decision making for the first time in almost forty years. Local authorities will help to join up the commissioning of local NHS, social care and public health issues and services. The changes set out in the White Paper will have a profound impact on the way that healthcare is organised and delivered When GPs are in England. To improve commissioning services health outcomes we they will be able to do so, must also instil a new culture of value and where appropriate, from productivity within the any willing provider. NHS. These reforms are This will introduce a new necessary in themselves, level of competition, it will we would be making whatever the stimulate innovation and them financial circumstances, increase productivity but the economic backdrop will provide within what will become the largest social market added impetus to them. We need to fashion a in the world vibrant, creative NHS full of ideas about how to improve quality and at the same time reduce costs. The incentives in the system that I have already mentioned, a massive increase in information and patient choice, a move to any willing provider and transparent payment system, will over time have a significant impact on the NHS and on productivity but in the nearer term we can do a great deal to cut bureaucracy and increase efficiency. Over the next four years we will reduce NHS management costs by more than 45 per cent, cuts on this scale don’t mean shaving off a bit here and a bit there, it requires a whole new approach to NHS management. PCTs along with their £1.5 billion a year administrative costs will go with the arrival of GP consortia, SHAs will be Regrettably, this will mean abolished and the Department of Health unavoidable job losses functions will be but we are doing all we can NHS radically scaled back. to minimise their number Regrettably, this will mean unavoidable job losses but we are doing all we can to minimise their number. The two year public sector pay freeze for everyone earning over £21,000 while difficult for some, will help us to save around 150,000 jobs, jobs that will concentrate on the front line rather than in management or in administration. This White Paper focuses specifically on the NHS but our ambition reaches far beyond it. By the end of this year we will publish a public health White Paper and next year a social care White Paper. They will set out our plans to integrate the NHS and social care and to create a Department of Public Health, changing the very shape and definition of healthcare in this country. Last week we set the goal, this week we have started the work. We have now launched three consultations on commissioning, the outcomes framework and local democratic legitimacy. They will start the process of filling in the detail of our proposals and signal the way in which they take reform forward. Every step of the way we will involve the public, NHS and social care staff, local authorities and other interested groups to create an NHS that is genuinely responsive to people’s needs and properly grounded in the evidence of what works. As leaders in your field, I would urge you, every one of you, to grasp this opportunity to contribute and help shape the NHS for a generation. Let me be clear, reorganisation on this scale will not be easy, it will not be painless, but neither the NHS nor the patient, nor the taxpayer, can afford the costs of the current bureaucracy. In the coming months, the Secretary of State and I and other Ministers and clinical leaders will travel the country seeking, first-hand, people’s views about our plans. Like all other public services, the NHS must re-examine every aspect of everything it does, the only difference is that by protecting the NHS budget and reinvesting any savings, we will ensure it is not the sick who are asked to pay the massive debts left by the last Government. Our ambition remains undimmed despite the economic climate and we need to keep our eyes on the prize. An NHS led from the front, patients in charge of their own care, every penny spent going to where it belongs on front line patient care and most of all, healthcare as good as or better than anywhere in the world. Thank you very much. Andrew Haldenby: Simon, thank you very much indeed. A real tour de force which gives us a sense of the scale of the challenge as you see it and also your desire to generate new ideas. This is the beginning of the journey of new ideas that www.reform.co.uk 177 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform are needed to see it through to the end, so thank you so much. Let me take questions in threes. A forest of hands, the first one went up at the back and then the person with the laptop and there. And will you say who you are and where you’re from. Stephen Hughes: Stephen Hughes from Bevan Brittan. One of the more controversial parts of the White Paper is around the creation of GP commissioners, I wonder if you could try and paint a picture of what some of these organisations might look like? I am particularly interested in some ideas of the size and structure, do you see these public or private organisations, what sort of premiums or incentives these organisations might receive, and the magnitude of what those premiums are going to be. Lastly, could you make a comment about how you think these organisations can manage the performance in terms of GPs themselves unless they have the ability to be able to exclude practices from consortia? Andrew Haldenby: Thank you, the gentleman at the front typing away. Andy Cowper: Andy Cowper from Health Policy Insight. Minister, you are aware from your long understanding of NHS issues that the big issue that the NHS continues, and fails, to face is variation in clinical outputs. Can you explain where in the new system the monitoring and measuring part of the outcomes will sit? Why will it be more effective than all the mechanisms that haven’t worked so far? Andrew Haldenby: And then just in the front row there. Audience Member: You talked about difference between policy and competition; can you clarify how that works? Andrew Haldenby: Over to you Simon. Simon Burns: If I can take the first question first, obviously. Part of the answer to the question, and I’m not ducking this, is that there are five documents flowing from the White Paper, three have been published already and we need to conclude the consultations on the GP commissioning document before we can give you some of the answers. You said how big, how many? The answer as of now is, ‘I don’t know’. We will wait till we have concluded the consultations and I suspect that it will evolve and it will become apparent as it takes shape. We’re not going to lay down a straight-jacket and say there have got to be X numbers of doctors or doctors practices in each consortium, it will flow and we will be established there. Who will be working in these consortia? I assume that what will happen generally is that the GPs will use consortia to do the work for them through their guidance and their needs, rather than GPs themselves sitting there commissioning themselves, for very obvious reasons.You asked who’s going to pay for it, what money in effect are GPs going to get for it? Again that is an area where there will be negotiations with the 178 www.reform.co.uk Delivering a new health agenda / Reform BMA and at this point it is far too premature to say what the outcome will be of that. It is something to discuss and that is the way forward. Your last question, if I can read my appalling handwriting, it begins with an M, the second word is P and GPs, can you help me? Stephen Hughes: How will you control poor performance by individual GPs? Simon Burns: Partly, I mean, there is a series, partly through the consortia themselves because particularly if GPs are joining together into, consortia then appointing professionals to do the work for them. Partly through that but also through the National Commissioning Board and through the involvement of local authorities, who will now for the first time have more of an involvement and responsibility within health rather than simply public health So there will be those three strands and there will be pressures in other ways from patients themselves as more and more patients become more and more informed and more and more involved in expressing their wishes and their direction of travel in their own healthcare requirements. How are we going to judge outcomes, which was the second question. It will be done primarily through the NICE standards which I spoke about. These will differ from the existing targets in that the target culture we have at the moment, too many of them are not clinically based. They were taken on political grounds for a situation 13 years ago when the incoming Government made priorities. They identified priorities of where they wanted to go as quickly as possible, particularly in the area of waiting lists and waiting times and they adopted an approach that was in One of the more many cases not linked to controversial parts of justification but the White Paper is around clinical to a political agenda. In the creation of GP that respect I can see commissioners, I wonder where they were coming if you could try and paint from given where they at the time. We a picture of what some of were reject the view that you these organisations might should have targets that were based on politics look like? rather than clinical decisions. Certainly, from the experience of Andrew Lansley and the Shadow Ministers during the time that they were in Opposition and travelled round this country, the message they got time and time again from clinicians, GPs and nurses that they met in hospitals and other heath service settings, was that the targets were distorting clinical decisions and were distorting the way in which the system should run. We believe that clinicians should be freed from that straight-jacket, from that interference from the Department of Health and the NHS at a national level and be able to reach their decisions on clinical priorities and on what we believe are the best interests of patients. That is why we are reviewing and at the moment are adapting and relaxing some of the targets and we are keeping others. Where there is a clinical justification for a target, for example the two week cancer rate target, we will keep that. Now when the Commissioning Board is set up in two years time that may be fine tuned, it may be improved if the clinical evidence suggests it should be. That will be a matter for the National Commissioning Board, it won’t be a matter for me and my fellow politicians in the Department of Health to interfere in that; it will be done on a clinical basis by the National Commissioning Board. On the question of tariffs and the ceiling, the tariff will remain as the price but there are possibilities that once up and running in reality, the prices might through competition be forced down and that is what I meant when I was referring in my comments. Andrew Haldenby: I am just going to take two more because of time. Simon Hill: Simon Hill from Cerner. Minister, you talked about an information revolution Whose job is it to make and clearly there is a raft sense of that information? of information already around, there is going to be more information around. Whose job is it to make sense of that information? Is it the government, is it the private sector like Dr Foster or is it the patients and the doctors? Jerome Burn: Jerome Burn of the Daily Mail. We heard earlier on talk about how we have very poor information about outcomes from one of the speakers in the first section, information like what goes on in hospitals, to know what patient outcomes are like, what they do about it, how well they do or have done. I am just wondering how you are going to make a judgement on outcomes rather than on targets with this apparent lack of information which even if we are going to start gathering this is going to take quite a bit of time? Simon Burns: Can I answer the questions in reverse? There are patient surveys and as I heard when I came in from one of the speakers on the panel, some of the information asked and the way it is asked is convoluted and is difficult. We have to have information gathering, particularly amongst patients, that is easily understandable, that is not like filling in a benefit claim form that is 60 pages long where people fall asleep half way through it.You have got to engage people so that they are enthusiastic about sharing their experiences, their views on the way they were looked after across the whole range, not simply medical decisions but also the environment of their stay, if it was in hospital overnight or whatever.You can do that if you make it simple and relatively short but not by cutting corners so that you don’t actually get the relevant information that is then of benefit to other patients, who may want to look at it before reaching any decision when they’re exercising choice, and also that the National Commissioning Board in the future and the health service itself knows. So that is my answer to that. On the question of outcomes, as I said earlier, NICE will be establishing standards across the range. They have done three so far on dementia, stroke and TE, and there will be about 150 more over the next five years which will be a kind of benchmark that the analysis and the judging of outcomes will flow from. On the question of information, you are absolutely right, there is going to be an information revolution because, if you want to empower patients, and also those organising and running the service, you have got to have the available information to reach and take those judgements and decisions. There is a significant amount of information gathered already by the NHS, it will be looked at to see what is relevant, what is there just for the sake of collecting information that is irrelevant, never used. We will then chop and change, get rid of that sort of information gathering that isn’t relevant, substitute information where we feel there is not enough, to improve our knowledge and our ability to take decisions. If we are going to publish it for patients, in particular, notwithstanding the comments of the lady talking on the panel that most people are at the level of a Sun or Mirror reader, if that isn’t being unfair and misquoting her. My experience as a constituency MP is that people aren’t quite at their level, I am more optimistic about people’s ability to assimilate and make judgements, but it has got to be in simple, easily understandable languages and tabulations so that they can go to whatever is of their particular interest. So whether a hospital has a good reputation for cleanliness, the quality of the service, the waiting times, etc, etc. That, I think, will build up a change of attitude and culture that has begun up to a point with Choose and Book but is still at its early stages and is to many a new concept. At the moment, when they go to visit their GP they place a considerable amount of reliance on the information and guidance and advice that the GP gives and that’s absolutely fine, that’s no criticism, but that is because they are not used to the culture of reaching their own decisions. Choose and Book has helped to develop that to a point but we want to see it far more widespread so it is an ingrained part of the culture and the experience of interfacing with the NHS. Andrew Haldenby: Great, well we’re going to have some coffee now. I am not going to keep you too long from your busy diary. So Simon, if you can stay on your way out please do but if you have to rush off, of course please do. On all of our behalf, it is very exciting actually to listen to you set out your position, the Government’s position at the beginning of this remarkable period of change. I don’t know if you were trying to get a headline with the phrase ‘The largest social market in the world’, that would be a change for the NHS but that’s what you said you want. You couldn’t be clearer that you want not just the help of the people in this room but other people around the health world to help you to respond to the consultations that you described and not to stop there but to keep on, so I hope Reform can do that and I’m sure everybody in this room will help with that. I really do think the scale of this challenge, the deficit challenge that you set out is so great that as well as the expertise in this room, we do need Ministers to come and engage and to lead the debate and you have done that today, so thank you. Managing the budget Andrew Haldenby: So let me very quickly introduce yet again an excellent panel. Stephen Dorrell, the Chair of the House of Commons Health Select Committee, will begin. Stephen is a former Secretary of State for Health and www.reform.co.uk 179 Delivering a new health agenda / Reform someone who kept up to speed right at the heart of the public services debate whilst in Opposition. I think he has already signalled that he wants the Health Select Committee under him to be a generator of ideas for change. Roger Taylor is the Director of Public Affairs at Dr Foster Intelligence and before that he was a correspondent for the Financial Times both in the UK and the US reporting on information technology. Everyone here knows the huge amount of good that Dr Foster does in the healthcare market. Nicolaus Henke is the Director and Head of Healthcare Practice at McKinsey and Co and he is responsible for McKinsey’s work not only in Europe but also Middle East and Africa and globally really! Of course, McKinsey has written some seriously important reports on the NHS over recent years, not least the one last year which has just appeared on the Department of Health website which explains how to take quite a lot of money out of the budget. Last but absolutely not least, Alan Maynard, Professor of Health Economics at the University of York, someone who worked in the NHS for 27 years, as an academic at the very highest level and consultant to the World Bank, the WHO, the European Union, I could go on. So let us begin with Stephen Dorrell, if you want to go to the lectern, Stephen. Stephen Dorrell: Andrew, thank you very much, thank you for the invitation to come at what’s a very interesting juncture for the National Health Service. Just listening to you introduce the panel prompted the thought in my mind that when I first became a Health Minister, Alan Maynard only had seven years experience in the National Health Service under his belt! [Laughter] It tells you that both of us have long been involved in t
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