Different aspects in
ERTMS migration strategies
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Background: Scope Extension of TSIs
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Findings related to migration strategies
FINANCIAL MODELING OF ERTMS MIGRATION SCENARIOS:
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Expected tendencies: ETCS Limited Supervision supports (fast) trackside overlay
migration scenarios (‘low cost’ trackside solution), while ETCS L2 (esp. without overlay of
line side signalling) is deployed in case of (fast) rolling stock overlay migration scenarios;
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The result of the business case at Member State level depends on different national
parameters (e.g. age/quantity of rolling stock equipment versus age/quantity of
trackside equipment, value of changes of safety/capacity);
CHALLENGES/UNCERTAINTIES IN ERTMS FINANCIAL MODELING:
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ETCS L2 - limited experience on the impact of less OPEX costs (less trackside equipment
means less operational and maintenance expenditures, easier operational procedures
(e.g. temporary speed restrictions) means less maintenance costs);
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Forecast of future trends in ERTMS system life cycle costs compared to Class B (legacy)
system life cycle costs;
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Findings related to migration strategies
OTHER ELEMENTS INFLUENCING THE MIGRATION STRATEGIES:
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Insufficient availability of investment funds could lead to the exclusion of a fast
migration strategy;
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Safety incidents/accidents could lead to the adoption of a fast migration scenario;
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Easier funding of publicly owned assets of the IM could lead to the adoption of a
trackside overlay migration scenario;
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Proposal for the legal framework
THE PROPOSED TSI CCS (SCOPE EXTENSION) SHALL FURTHER STRENGTHEN
THE SINGLE EU TRAIN CONTROL SYSTEM IN AN ECONOMIC VIABLE WAY:
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Mandatory extension of the ETCS deployment to off-TEN is not included in chapter 7 of the TSI CCS
(same conclusions as for TEN-network, except corridors); Member States should be allowed to set
requirements at national level to support installation of ERTMS and removal of legacy systems;
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Scope Extension of TSI CCS should eliminate the risk of development of (brand) new legacy systems
also for the off-TEN network;
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The provisions (clause 7.2.2) already existing for the management of legacy systems should remain
unchanged and extended to off-TEN network;
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Way forward (1) – Technical evolution
The business cases at Member State level may change in future in function
of technical developments (innovations) within the ERTMS field:
Some examples in short/ medium/ long term…
- Developments to improve punctuality/safety/capacity/cost (improved CABradios to limit the number of interference issues; improved odometry; ETCS over GPRS);
- Development of interchangeability in the field of ERTMS (e.g. DMI-EVC interface);
- Development of ETCS L3 will lead to improved business case of IMs (no train
detection systems) versus the additional cost for the train integrity function at
rolling stock side;
- Development of next generation communication system;
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Way forward (2) – Financial Mechanisms
Further use of financial compensation schemes could support the business
cases (support of early implementers) and create leverage effect on ERTMS
deployment:
Why?
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Financial mechanisms supporting innovation (research) and/or
early implementers of new innovations;
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Financial mechanisms supporting the ERTMS business cases where a
lack of investment funds could prevent the deployment of the most
optimised ERTMS migration scenario and rebalancing the migration costs
between RUs and IMs;
Example of financing scheme supporting fast rolling stock migration
scenario: Toll-bridge Financing structure presented by Ole Kjörreford, Chairman,
Hector rail AB, CCRCC 2012, Lille, November 6+7, 2012
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Way forward (3) - Monitoring
Further (continuous) monitoring:
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provides information in order to identify which activities should be prioritised
(e.g. incl. funding priorities related to research & early implementers &
interoperability benefits);
provides information (cost trends) in order to define/optimise the migration
strategy within Member States;
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Thank you for your attention!
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