www.seb.se/mb “Our services” > “Research/Country analysis”= Islamic Republic of Iran SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS January 21, 2016 ^å~äóëíW=oçäÑ=a~åáÉäëÉåK=qÉä=W=HQS=U=TSP=UP=VOK=bJã~áä=W=êçäÑKÇ~åáÉäëÉå]ëÉÄKëÉ= = táíÜ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=ë~åÅíáçåë=~ÖêÉÉÇ=ä~ëí=ïÉÉâI=fê~å=áë=ÅçãáåÖ=áå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅçäÇK=qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ëÜçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=~= ëíêçåÖ=éçíÉåíá~ä=Äìí=áë=êáÇÇäÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ìåÅÉêí~áåíáÉë=íÜ~í=ã~ó=ÜçäÇ=áåîÉëíçêë=Ä~Åâ=Ñçê=ëçãÉ=íáãÉK== = Country Risk Analysis Lifting of sanctions raises the prospects for the economy: Following a deep recession after tighter sanctions were imposed in 2011 the economy has begun to recover growing at an average of 3% a year. The new lifting of all main Western sanctions agreed last week has boosted the chances of stronger growth at more than 4% on average through the rest of the decade. While economic balances are not in an alarming state at the outset, at least according to official data, the economic and financial situation could now improve further making Iran an interesting new investor target. That is provided the authorities make an determined effort to solve simmering problems of government arrears and mostly associated high levels of bad loans and general mismanagement in the formal banking system. However, this scenario comes with certain warnings. The political system of Iran is hard to fathom for outsiders. It is reportedly littered with vested interests not least among the regime’s religious and revolutionary hardliners. They seems to have profited from the tight sanction regime of recent years and would probably loath any economic opening. The purely religious establishment may also be wary seeing more interactions with the West fearful this could undermine the “moral” foundations of the state. On the other side of the table we could soon have a Republican President who may have promised to turn back the sanctions agreement from ”day one”. In addition, in economic terms, the opening f the country dos not come at themost opportune time. The global oil price is down and could fall further should Iran raise exports by another 0,5mbpd over the next 12 months. Already at the present low prices should they remain this low the government would run into a deep deficit of more than 6% of GDP and the external balance would turn clearly into the red prompting the need for offsetting policy measures. Also, regional tensions are simmering and in a worst case scenario could turn into a military confrontation. For several years the sovereign has not been rated by any of the three main agencies. Its last rating from Fitch was in the BB area but our hunch is that it would at least initially come in somewhat lower today. Country risk would likely turn out slightly lower still not least taking into account the uncertainties of its banking system SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 Recent economic developments mçäáÅáÉë= båÇ=íç=ë~åÅíáçåë=ê~áëÉë=ÜçéÉë=Ñçê=êÉÅçîÉêóW==páÖåáÑáÅ~åí=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ= äçåÖëí~åÇáåÖ=ïÉëíÉêå=ë~åÅíáçåë=êÉÖáãÉ=áå=ä~íÉ=OMNN=ÜáííáåÖ=ÄçíÜ=fê~åÛë=çáä=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅçååÉÅíáçåë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=çìíëáÇÉ=ïçêäÇ=ÖÉåÉê~íÉÇ=~=ÇÉÉé=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Åêáëáë=íÜ~í= ë~ï=~Åíáîáíó=Ñ~ää=Äó=VB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íïç=óÉ~êëK=qÜ~åâë=íç=áåíÉêáã=ë~åÅíáçåë= êÉäáÉÑ=~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=éê~Öã~íáÅ=éêÉëáÇÉåíI=jêK= oçìÜ~åáI==íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ÄçìåÅÉÇ=Ä~Åâ=áå=cvOMNPLNQ=EÑáëÅ~ä=óÉ~ê=ÉåÇáåÖ=j~êÅÜ=OMNQF= àìãéáåÖ=QBI=Äìí=áå=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=Çáë~ééçáåí=~Ö~áåK= dêçïíÜ=áë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç=çåäó=OBI=ïÉáÖÜÉÇ=Ççïå=Äó=äçï=çáä=éêáÅÉë=Äìí=~äëç= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=çÑ=ÑìêíÜÉê=äáÑíáåÖ=çÑ=ë~åÅíáçåë=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~ë=ãçíáî~íÉÇ=éçëíéçåáåÖ=çÑ= áåîÉëíãÉåíë=~åÇ=ÅçåëìãéíáçåK==== = fåÑä~íáçå=ÅçãáåÖ=ÇçïåW==^ÑíÉê=éÉ~âáåÖ=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=QMB=áå=OMNP=íÜÉ=~ååì~ä=ê~íÉ=çÑ= ê~ãé~åí=áåÑä~íáçåI=fê~åÛë=éêçÄäÉã=Ñçê=ã~åó=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉëI=~ééÉ~êë=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÅçãÉ=Ççïå= Ñáêãäó=áåíç=äçïÉê=íïç=ÇáÖáíë=~ååì~ä=éêáÅÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=ã~áåäó=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=äçïÉê=ÑççÇ= éêáÅÉëK=få=ä~ëí=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=áí=Ü~Ç=ÇêçééÉÇ=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=NOB=óÉ~êJçåJóÉ~ê=EóçóFK= = råÉãéäçóãÉåí=ëí~óë=ÜáÖÜK=aÉëéáíÉ=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=Ñ~ää=áå=~ÅíáîáíóI=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí=Ü~ë= åçí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ãìÅÜ=Äìí=ê~íÜÉê=ëí~óÉÇ=ÜáÖÜ=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=NMBK==qÜ~í=áë=ãìÅÜ=ÇìÉ=íç= äçïÉê=é~êíáÅáé~íáçå=ê~íÉ=ïáíÜ=çåäó=çåÉ=áå=Ñçìê=fê~åá~åë=Ü~îáåÖ=~=àçÄI=Äìí=~äëç=êáëáåÖ= ìåÇÉêÉãéäçóãÉåí=ïÜáÅÜ=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ãÉ~ëìêÉÇ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=VBK==vçìíÜ=ìåÉãéäçóãÉåí= áë=íÜÉ=ÅçêÉ=éêçÄäÉã=ïáíÜ=çåÉ=áå=Ñçìê=óçìåÖëíÉêë=çìí=çÑ=ïçêâK== = qÜÉ=çáä=ëÉÅíçê=Ççãáå~íÉë=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóW=qÜÉ=çáä=ëÉÅíçê=ÅçåíêáÄìíÉë=ïáíÜ=~Äçìí=~= èì~êíÉê=çÑ=dam=Äìí=Ççãáå~íÉë=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=ÑáëÅ~ä=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=íÜêÉÉ=èì~êíÉêë=çÑ=ÉñéçêíëK== i~ëí=óÉ~ê=áí=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=~Äçìí=P=ãáääáçå=Ä~êêÉäë=éÉê=Ç~ó=EãÄéÇF=çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=áí=ÅçìäÇ= Éñéçêí=NIOãÄéÇ=ëçãÉ=MISãÄéÇ=äÉëë=íÜ~å=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=áããÉÇá~íÉ=Å~é~Åáíó=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ= ë~åÅíáçåë=êÉÖáãÉK==cçê=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=ÄÉáåÖ=áí=Ü~ë=~Äçìí=QMãå=Ä~êêÉäë=çÑ=Ñäç~íáåÖ=ëíçê~ÖÉK= táíÜ=ëçãÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇÛë=ä~êÖÉëí=éêçîÉå=êÉëÉêîÉë=~í=NPUÄåK=Ä~êêÉäëI=fê~å=Å~å=ëìëí~áå= éêÉëÉåí=ê~íÉë=çÑ=Éñéäçáí~íáçå=Ñçê=~äãçëí=NMM=óÉ~êëK=fê~å=~äëç=éêçÇìÅÉë=å~íìê~ä=Ö~ë= áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Ñçê=Éñéçêíë=íç=qìêâÉóK= = bñíÉêå~ä==Ä~ä~åÅÉëW=áå=êÉ~ëçå~ÄäÉ=ÖççÇ=ëÜ~éÉ==få=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí= Ü~ë=ãçëíäó=ÄÉÉå=ëÜçïáåÖ=ëçäáÇ=~ååì~ä=ëìêéäìëÉëI=Äìí=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=ÑÉää=íç=çåäó=MITB=çÑ= dam=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=ëçÑíÉåáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉëK===lå=íÜÉ=Å~éáí~ä=~ÅÅçìåíI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=ÉÑÑçêíë= íç=~ííê~Åí=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇáêÉÅí=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ä~êÖÉäó=ìåëìÅÅÉëëÑìäI=åçí=çåäó=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ= çÑ=ë~åÅíáçåëI=Äìí=~äëç=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ìåéêÉÇáÅí~ÄäÉ=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ä~Åâ=çÑ= éÉêëçå~ä=ëÉÅìêáíó=Ñçê=ã~åó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄìëáåÉëë=éÉçéäÉ=çÑíÉå=í~êÖÉíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë= î~êáçìë=ëÉÅìêáíó=ëÉêîáÅÉëK==qÜÉ=caf=ä~ï=çÑ=OMMOI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ëÉíë=åç=äáãáí~íáçåë=çå= ÑçêÉáÖå=é~êíáÅáé~íáçå=ïÜÉêÉîÉê=éêáî~íÉ=ÄìëáåÉëë=áë=éÉêãáííÉÇK==qÜ~åâë=íç=íÜÉ= ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ=íê~ÇÉ=ëìêéäìëI=êÉëÉêîÉë=~êÉ=ÜáÖÜäó=~ÇÉèì~íÉ=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=ATMÄåK== ëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=çåÉ=óÉ~ê=çÑ=áãéçêíëK==fí=áë=ìåÅäÉ~ê=íç=ïÜáÅÜ=ÉñíÉåí=íÜ~í= åìãÄÉê=ÅçîÉêë=ÑêçòÉå=~ëëÉíë=ÇìÉ=íç=ë~åÅíáçåëK=qÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=çÑ=fê~å=E`_fF= Éëíáã~íÉë=ëìÅÜ=~ëëÉíë=íç=APPÄåK=Äìí=ÑçêÉáÖå=çÄëÉêîÉêë=çÑíÉå=èìçíÉ=ãìÅÜ=ÜáÖÜÉê= åìãÄÉêë=ìé=íç=ANMMÄåK==^ë=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=ï~ë=Ä~ëáÅ~ääó=Åìí=çÑÑ=Ñêçã=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅÉ=Ñçê= ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êëI=áí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=é~ó=Ççïå=ÑçêÉáÖå=äç~åë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÑÉää=ÇìÉ=íÜìë= êÉÇìÅáåÖ=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=çåäó=AUÄåI=äÉëë=íÜ~å=OB=çÑ=damK== = = dêçïáåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáí=é~êíäó=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó=~êêÉ~êëW==få=cv=OMNQLNR=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáí= êçëÉ=ëäáÖÜíäó=íç=NIPBLdamK=qÜ~í=ãçÇÉëí=åìãÄÉêI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ï~ë=ãÉ~ëìêÉÇ=çå=~=Å~ëÜ= important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 Ä~ëáëK=lå=~=ÅçããáíãÉåí=Ä~ëáë=íÜÉ=åìãÄÉê=ï~ë=~éé~êÉåíäó=ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó=ÜáÖÜÉêI= ãÉ~åáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ö~é=ï~ë=ã~ÇÉ=ìé=ïáíÜ=~êêÉ~êë=áå=íÜÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉK===cçê=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ÑáëÅ~ä= óÉ~ê=ÉåÇáåÖ=åÉñí=j~êÅÜ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áë=ëÉí=íç=êáëÉ=ÑìêíÜÉê=íç=~äãçëí=QB=çÑ=amK=qÜ~í=áë= ä~êÖÉäó=ÇìÉ=íç=ïÉ~âÉê=çáä=êÉîÉåìÉë=Äìí=~äëç=NQB=ÜáâÉë=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ï~ÖÉë=éÉêÜ~éë= ãçÇÉëí=êÉä~íáîÉ=íç=éêÉîáçìë=ê~íÉë=çÑ=áåÑä~íáçå=Äìí=Ü~êÇäó=~ÑÑçêÇ~ÄäÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉíK== qÜÉ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áë=~äëç=çÅÅìêêáåÖ=áå=ëéáíÉ=çÑ=çåÖçáåÖ=Åìíë=íç= ÑìÉä=ëìÄëáÇáÉë=~åÇ==ÜáâáåÖ=çÑ=í~ñÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=s^q=Ü~îáåÖ=Äó=åçï=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ==VB= Ñçê=ãçëí=ÖççÇëK==qÜÉ=åçåJçáä=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áë=ÜçîÉêáåÖ=~êçìåÇ=UB=çÑ=damK== = k~íáçå~ä=çáä=~åÇ=ïÉ~äíÜ=ÑìåÇëW===råäáâÉ=ãçëí=çíÜÉê=çáä=éêçÇìÅÉêëI=fê~å=Ü~ë=åçí=ÄÉÉå= ~ÄäÉ=íç=~ÅÅìãìä~íÉ=ä~êÖÉ=çáä=ÑìåÇëK=qÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíÛë=láä=pí~Äáäáò~íáçå=cìåÇ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ÇÉéäÉíÉÇ=~åÇ=ïáíÜ=ASOÄåK=åÉí=ïçêíÜ=íÜÉ=k~íáçå~ä=tÉ~äíÜ=cìåÇ=áë=åçí=îÉêó=ä~êÖÉ= êÉä~íáîÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ëáòÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK=jçêÉçîÉêI=íÜáë=ÑìåÇ=áë=ëí~íìíçêó=åçí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=íç= äÉåÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK==qÜáë=Ü~ë=íê~Çáíáçå~ääó=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=ÇÉÑáÅáíë=Äó=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Ñêçã= äçÅ~ä=ã~êâÉíë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Ä~åâëK=_ÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=éêçíÉëí~íáçåë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ä~ííÉêI=ÇÉä~óáåÖ= é~óãÉåíë=íç=ëìééäáÉêë=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=~=ÑêÉèìÉåíäó=ìëÉÇ=Ñáå~åÅáåÖ=ãÉíÜçÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=áå=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëK== = pìÄëáÇáåÖ=éêáÅÉ=éêÉëëìêÉ=Ñ~Åáäáí~íÉë=ãçåÉí~êó=É~ëáåÖW==táíÜ=Ñ~ääáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçå=êÉ~ä= ê~íÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=éçëáíáîÉ=~åÇ=éêçãéíÉÇ=íÜÉ=`_f=íç=Åìí=áíë=éçäáÅó=ê~íÉëK=fí=Ü~ë=~äëç= ëçìÖÜí=íç=É~ëÉ=íÜÉ=äáèìáÇáíó=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=áåíÉêÄ~åâ=ã~êâÉí=Äó=êÉÇìÅáåÖ=êÉëÉêîÉ= êÉèìáêÉãÉåíë=çå=Ä~åâëÛ=ÇÉéçëáíë=í~âáåÖK=qÜÉ=~áã=áë=åçí=çåäó=íç=ëìééçêí=~áäáåÖ=Ä~åâë= Äìí=~äëç=íç=~êêÉëí=ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÖêçïíÜ=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~ë=ÇêçééÉÇ=íç=~å=~ååì~ä=ê~íÉ=çÑ= NRBI=Ü~êÇäó=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=åçãáå~ä=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ=íÜÉ=åçåJçáä=ÉÅçåçãóK=== = bñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=éçäáÅáÉë=å~êêçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ö~é=íç=íÜÉ=ÑêÉÉ=ã~êâÉí=ê~íÉW==páåÅÉ=íÜÉ=RMB= ÇÉî~äì~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=oá~ä=áå=OMNP=íç=foo=ORMMM=éÉê=rpaI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë= ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=íÜìë=å~êêçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=Ö~é=íç=íÜÉ=ÑêÉÉ=ã~êâÉí=ëçJÅ~ääÉÇ=“ÄìêÉ~ì= ê~íÉÒ=ÅìêêÉåíäó=çÑÑÉêÉÇ=Äó=ÅìêÄ=íê~ÇÉêë=~åÇ=éêáî~íÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ÇÉ~äÉêë=~í=~êçìåÇ= fooPMMMM=íç=fooPRMMMLAK===qÜÉ=fjc=ÅçåëáÇÉêë=íÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=ÅäçëÉê=íç=éçëíJë~åÅíáçåë= ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë=ïÜáÅÜ=ãÉ~åë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=çÑÑáÅá~ä=ê~íÉ=áë=ëíáää=ëçãÉ=NMJNRB=çîÉêî~äìÉÇK==qÜÉ= ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ÜçéÉë=íÜáë=å~êêçïáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ö~é=ÉîÉåíì~ääó=ïáää=ÄêáåÖ=áí=áå=~=éçëáíáçå=íç= ëí~êí=~=ã~å~ÖÉÇ=Ñäç~í=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅóK== = qÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=ÄìêÇÉåÉÇ=Äó=ÜáÖÜ=äÉîÉäë=çÑ=Ä~Ç=äç~åëW==qÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=áë= ÅÜ~ê~ÅíÉêáòÉÇ=~ë=ìåÇÉêÅ~éáí~äáòÉÇI=ïÉ~â=~ëëÉí=èì~äáíó=ïáíÜ=äçï=éêçîáëáçåáåÖ=~Ö~áåëí= äçëëÉë=~åÇ=ï~åíáåÖ=áå=êáëâ=ã~å~ÖÉãÉåí=ëóëíÉãëK==qÜÉ=Ä~åâëÛ=çîÉê~êÅÜáåÖ=éêçÄäÉãI= íÜçìÖÜI=áë=ÖêçïáåÖ=åçåJéÉêÑçêãáåÖ=äç~åë=EkmiF=êÉéçêíÉÇäó=Ü~îáåÖ=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=NOB=çÑ= íçí~ä=äç~å=ÄççâëK=qÜÉó=~êÉ=áå=é~êí=Å~ìëÉÇ=Äó=ÖêçïáåÖ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~êêÉ~êë=íç= ÅçããÉêÅá~ä=Åçãé~åáÉë=ïÜáÅÜI=áå=êÉíìêåI=~êÉ=åçí=~ÄäÉ=íç=é~ó=íÜÉáê=Äáääë=íç=íÜÉ=Ä~åâëK= jçêÉçîÉêI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=ä~íÉëí=Åçìåíêó=êÉéçêí=çÑ=íÜÉ=fjcN=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=~êÉ= ÅçåÅÉêåÉÇ=íÜ~í=êÉÅÉåí=ÜÉ~äíÜ=ÅÜÉÅâë=ã~ó=êÉîÉ~ä=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=ÜáÖÜÉê=kmi=äÉîÉäëK=qÜáë= Ü~ë=éêçãéíÉÇ=íÜÉ=`_f=íç=ã~åÇ~íÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=éêçîáëáçåáåÖ=ïÜáÅÜ=~äëç=ãÉ~åë=íÜ~í= Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=ã~áåí~áå=ÜáÖÜ=áåíÉêÉëí=ã~êÖáåëI=ê~áëáåÖ==íÜÉ=çééçêíìåáíó= Ñçê=ìåäáÅÉåëÉÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåë=íç=ÉåÅêç~ÅÜ=çå=Ä~åâëÛ=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=ÅäáÉåí=ã~êâÉíëK== qÜÉáê=ÖêçïáåÖ=éêÉëÉåÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ãçåÉó=~åÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ã~êâÉíë=áåîçâÉë= ~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=ïçêêáÉë=~Äçìí=íÜÉ=ëí~Äáäáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëóëíÉã=~í=ä~êÖÉK== = píêìÅíìê~ä=áëëìÉëW==cçê=ã~åó=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=fê~åÛë=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ëíêìÖÖäáåÖ=ïáíÜ=~= ëí~íáëí=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçêK=^ë=ëìÅÜI=íÜÉ=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉ=ÉñÜáÄáíë=Åçåíê~ÇáÅíáçåë=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ= 1 Islamic Republic of Iran, 2015 Article IV Consultation, Country Report No. 15/349, December 2015, Washington DC important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 mçäáíáÅë= lìíäççâ= êÉÖìä~íçêó=áåÅçåëáëíÉåÅáÉëK=få=íÜáë=ÅçåíÉñí=ïÉ=ÑáåÇ=áí= ëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=íç=åçíÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=tçêäÇ=_~åâÛë=~ååì~ä= ëìêîÉó=“b~ëÉ=çÑ=ÇçáåÖ=ÄìëáåÉëëÒ=ê~åâë=fê~å= åìãÄÉê=NNU=Ñêçã=íçé=~ãçåÖ=NUV=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=qÜ~í=áë= ÅäÉ~êäó=ïçêëÉ=íÜ~å=oìëëá~=~åÇ=`Üáå~=Äìí=áå=íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ=Ä~ääé~êâ=~ë=_ê~òáä=~åÇ=fåÇá~K= = ”Ease of doing business” 2015 Iran 118 India 130 Brazil 116 China 84 Russia 51 Hong Kong 5 World Bank survey of 189 countries = kÉñí=ãçåíÜI=cÉÄêì~êó=OSI=fê~åá~åë=Öç=íç=íÜÉ=éçääë=íç=ÉäÉÅí=~=åÉï=å~íáçå~ä=~ëëÉãÄäó= ~åÇ=~äëç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáîÉë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=^ëëÉãÄäó=çÑ=bñéÉêíë=ïÜáÅÜ=~ééçáåíë=íÜÉ=pìéêÉãÉ= iÉ~ÇÉê=J=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=êÉäáÖáçìë=íçé=ÜÉ~Ç=~åÇ=ìäíáã~íÉ=~êÄáíÉêK=få=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=é~ëí=Ñçêã= íÜ~í=ã~ó=ìåäÉ~ëÜ=ëìééêÉëëÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåë=~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=ëÉÉå=áå=íÜÉ=îÉííáåÖ=éêçÅÉëë= Ñçê=Å~åÇáÇ~íÉë=éÉêãáííÉÇ=íç=êìå=Ñçê=~=ëÉ~í=áå=íÜÉ=j~àäáë=Eé~êäá~ãÉåíF=ïÜÉêÉ=ëáÖåë=~êÉ= êáëáåÖ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Éëí~ÄäáëÜãÉåí=Ü~ë=ëí~êíÉÇ=íç=Çáëèì~äáÑó=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=çééçëáíáçå=Éå= ã~ëëÉK===fí=åçíÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=^ëëÉãÄäó=çÑ=ÉñéÉêíë=ãáÖÜí=íìêå=çìí=íÜÉ= ãçêÉ=ÅçåíÉåíáçìë=~ë=íÜÉêÉ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=äáííäÉ=ÅçåëÉåëìë=çå=ïÜçã=íç=ÅÜççëÉ=~ë=íÜÉ=åÉñí= ëìéêÉãÉ=äÉ~ÇÉê=~ÑíÉê=^äá=hÜ~ãÉåó=ïÜç=Ü~ë=êìäÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVVMë=~åÇ=áë= ~ééêç~ÅÜáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÜáÖÜ=~ÖÉ=çÑ=UM=óÉ~êëK== = mçäáíáÅ~ä=ÅçåëíÉää~íáçåë=áå=fê~å=~êÉ=ÄÉáåÖ=ÇÉëÅêáÄÉÇ=~ë=Éñíê~çêÇáå~êó=ÅçãéäÉñ=~åÇ= ìåÑáí=Ñçê=~=“ïÉëíÉêåÒ=ìåÇÉêëí~åÇáåÖ=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=éêçÅÉëëÉë=~äçåÖ=íê~Çáíáçå~ä=äÉÑíLêáÖÜí= ÇáîáÇáåÖ=äáåÉëK=pÉ~ëçåÉÇ=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ê~íÜÉê=Çê~ïë=Ñ~ìäí=äáåÉë=ÄÉíïÉÉå=ê~ÇáÅ~äë=~åÇ= éê~Öã~íáëíë=çå=íÜÉ=çåÉ=~åÇ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=íÜÉçÅê~íë=~åÇ=êÉéìÄäáÅ~åë=çå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉê=ã~âáåÖ= Ñçìê=ÇáëíáåÅí=Öêçìéë=ïáíÜI=åÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=çÑíÉå=çîÉêä~ééáåÖ=áåíÉêÉëíë=~åÇ=ãçíáî~íáçåëK=== = lÄëÉêîÉêë=åçíÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~éé~êÉåí=ìåéêÉÇáÅí~Äáäáíó=çÑ=fê~åá~å=éçäáíáÅë=ÑäìÅíì~íáåÖ= ÄÉíïÉÉå=ê~ÇáÅ~äë=~åÇ=éê~Öã~íáëíë=çÑíÉå=Éã~å~íÉë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ëìéêÉãÉ=äÉ~ÇÉê=ïÜç= ï~åíë=íç=âÉÉé=~=ÅÉêí~áå=Çáëí~åÅÉ=Ñêçã=éçäáíáÅë=áå=qÉÜê~å=Ó=ëí~óáåÖ=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=Ñê~óK=cçê= Éñ~ãéäÉW=áå=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ë~åÅíáçåë=åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=ÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ÉåÇçêëÉÇ=ëÉÅêÉí=í~äâë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ= rp=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=OMNO==~åÇ=ëìÄëÉèìÉåíäó=íÜÉáê=çéÉå=í~äâë=íïç=óÉ~êë=ä~íÉêI=Äìí=íÜÉå= íìêåÉÇ=~êçìåÇ=áå==OMNR=~ë=íÜÉ=í~äâë=ÅçåÅäìÇÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉ= åÉÖçíá~íçêëK=qÜáë=ä~íÉëí=ëíÉé=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=áåíÉêéêÉíÉÇ=~ë=~=éêÉÅ~ìíáçå=íç=ÜÉÇÖÉ=~Ö~áåëí= ~åó=Ää~ãÉJÖ~ãÉ=áå=Å~ëÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=ëÜçìäÇ=Ñ~áäK=qÜÉ=çîÉê~êÅÜáåÖ=Öç~ä=çÑ=íÜÉ= pìéêÉãÉ=äÉ~ÇÉê=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÇÉëÅêáÄÉÇ=íç=ë~ÑÉÖì~êÇ=íÜÉ=ÑçìåÇ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=fëä~ãáÅ=ëí~íÉ= ~åÇ=ÅçåëÉèìÉåíäó=Üáë=çïå=éçëáíáçåK==_ìí=áå=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=îÉáå=ÜÉ=~ÅÅÉéíë=ëçãÉ=éäìê~äáëã= ïáíÜáå=ïÉääJÇÉÑáåÉÇ=äáãáíë=~ë=~å=çìíäÉí=Ñçê=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåëK== = pç=Ñ~êI=íÜÉêÉ=áë=äáííäÉ=çéÉå=çééçëáíáçå=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉëÉ=ÑçìåÇ~íáçåë=~åÇ=éìåÇáíë=ï~êå= íÜ~í=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éêÉëëìêÉ=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=íÜáë=ã~ó=ÅêÉ~íÉ=~=ëÉêáçìë=Ä~Åâä~ëÜ=~åÇ=~ÅÜáÉîÉ=äáííäÉ= Äìí=íÜÉ=çééçëáíÉK=== = = i~ëí=ïÉÉâI=íÜÉ=rk=ÉåÇçêëÉãÉåí=áå=OMNR=çÑ=íÜÉ=åÉÖçíá~íáçåë=ÄÉíïÉÉå=fê~å=~åÇ=íÜÉ= mRHN=êÉÅÉáîÉÇ=áíë=Ñáå~ä=ëáÖå=çÑ=~ééêçî~ä=~ë=íÜÉ=fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=^íçãáÅ=båÉêÖó=^ÖÉåÅó= Ö~îÉ=áíë=åçÇ=íç=fê~å=ÅçåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=Ü~Ç=äáîÉÇ=ìé=íç=áíë=ÅçããáíãÉåíëK= qÜÉëÉ=áåÅäìÇÉÇ=ëÉåÇáåÖ=ÉåêáÅÜ=ìê~åáìã=íç=oìëëá~=Ñçê=éêçÅÉëëáåÖ=~åÇ=Çáëã~åíäáåÖ=íÜÉ= ÅçêÉ=çÑ=çåÉ=çÑ=áíë=åìÅäÉ~ê=êÉ~Åíçêë=ïÜáäÉ=íìêåáåÖ=çÑÑ=ÅÉåíêáÑìÖÉë=ìëÉÇ=íç=ÉåêáÅÜ= ìê~åáìã=ÄÉóçåÇ=íÜÉ=éìêáíó=åÉÉÇÉÇ=Ñçê=Åáîáäá~å=ìëÉK=qÜÉ=br=ëìÄëÉèìÉåíäó=ÇÉÅä~êÉÇ= íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=ë~åÅíáçåë=áåíêçÇìÅÉÇ=áå=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=fê~åÛë=åçåJÅçãéäá~åÅÉ= ïáíÜ=áíë=çÄäáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=~=ëáÖå~íçêó=íç=íÜÉ=rk=~åíáJéêçäáÑÉê~íáçå=éêçíçÅçäK== = important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 ^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=fê~å=áë=~Ö~áå=~ääçïÉÇ=íç=Éñéçêí=çáä=íç=~åó=Åçìåíêó=~åÇ=~ééêç~ÅÜ=íÜÉ= ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ã~êâÉí=~í=é~ê=ïáíÜ=çíÜÉêë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=é~óãÉåí=íê~åë~Åíáçåë=íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ=ptfcq=ëóëíÉãK==fê~åÛë=ÑêçòÉå=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=ïáää=~äëç=ÄÉ=êÉäÉ~ëÉÇK== = jçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜáë=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=éçëáíáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK== fjc=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=çÄëÉêîÉêë=Éëíáã~íÉ=íÜ~í=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=åÉñí=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=óÉ~ê= cvOMNSLNT=EÉåÇáåÖ=j~êÅÜ=OMNTF=ÅçìäÇ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉ=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=RB=íç=ãÉÉí=éÉåíJìé= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=ÜáÖÜÉê=çáä=çìíéìí=íç=íÜÉ=íìåÉ=çÑ=MIRãÄéÇ=íç= êÉ~ÅÜ=PISãÄéÇK=_ÉííÉê=~ÅÅÉëë=íç=íÜÉ=çìíëáÇÉ=ïçêäÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=Ñçê=é~óãÉåíë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê= Ñáå~åÅá~ä=íê~åë~ÅíáçåI=ïçìäÇ=ãÉ~å=~=éçëáíáîÉ=íÉêãë=çÑ=íê~ÇÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=íç=Äççëí=ÖêçïíÜ=Äó= ìé=íç=N=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=éçáåí=çîÉê=íáãÉK==qÜÉ=ìåÑêÉÉòáåÖ=çÑ=~ëëÉíë=~Äêç~Ç=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~å= ~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=áãéÉíìë=Ñçê=~=äáãáíÉÇ=íáãÉ=éÉêáçÇK==_ÉóçåÇ=åÉñí=óÉ~êI=ÖêçïíÜ=ïáää= éêçÄ~Ääó=ëÉííäÉ=~í=ëçãÉ=QBI=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=ÅäçëÉê=íç=äçåÖ=íÉêã=éçíÉåíá~äK=== = `~îÉ~íë=íç=íÜáë=éçëáíáîÉ=ëÅÉå~êáç=áåÅäìÇÉ== oÉåÉïÉÇ=ãáëíêìëí=ÄÉíïÉÉå=qÉÜê~å=~åÇ=t~ëÜáåÖíçå=Å~ìëáåÖ=~=èìáÅâ=ëå~éJÄ~Åâ= íç=éêÉîáçìë=ë~åÅíáçåëI=~=êáëâ=íÜ~í=ïçìäÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=ãìÅÜ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=ïáíÜ=~= oÉéìÄäáÅ~å=mêÉëáÇÉåí=áå=íÜÉ=tÜáíÉ=eçìëÉ=~ÑíÉê=åÉñí=rp=ÉäÉÅíáçå=áå=OMNSK== içïÉê=çáä=éêáÅÉë=Ç~ëÜáåÖ=ÜçéÉë=çÑ=ïáåÇÑ~ää=êÉîÉåìÉë=Ñçê=fê~å=çÑ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=çáä= ÉñéçêíëK==i~ëí=kçîÉãÄÉê=íÜÉ=fjc=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íÜ~í=ANMLÄ~êêÉä=Ççïå=çå=íÜÉ=çáä= éêáÅÉ=ïçìäÇ=ïÉ~âÉå=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=Äó=NITRB=çÑ=dam=~åÇ=íÜÉ= ÄìÇÖÉí=Äó=NBLdamK==táíÜ=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=åçï=Ççïå=íç=AORLÄ~êêÉäI=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí= ïçìäÇ=ÉåÇ=ìé=ïáíÜ=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=~äãçëí=QBLdam=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí= ïçìäÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=SBLdamK==qÜÉ=çîÉê~ää=ëáíì~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó= ïçìäÇ=íÜÉå=äççâ=ãìÅÜ=äÉëë=~ííê~ÅíáîÉK== fåíÉêå~ä=çééçëáíáçå=ÅçìäÇ=ÉëÅ~ä~íÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=ë~åÅíáçåëK=sÉëíÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëíë= ~êÉ=~å=áãéçêí~åí=ÅÉåíêÉéáÉÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=áåÑáÖÜíáåÖK=^äêÉ~Çó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ= fê~åá~å=êÉîçäìíáçå=áå=íÜÉ=ä~íÉ=NVTM=íÜÉ=oÉîçäìíáçå~êó=dì~êÇ=ä~áÇ=Ü~åÇë=çå= áãéçêí~åí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~ëëÉíëI=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉã=äÉÑí=çîÉê=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=pÜ~Ü= êÉÖáãÉK=oÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=ë~åÅíáçåë=Ü~îÉ=ÑìêíÜÉê=ÄÉåÉÑáííÉÇ=íÜÉáê=ÄìëáåÉëë=~åÇ= íÜÉó=~êÉ=åçï=êÉéçêíÉÇäó=ÑÉ~êÑìä=ë~åÅíáçå=êÉäáÉÑ=ã~ó=éìí=~å=ÉåÇ=íç=íÜÉáê=åÉïJ ïçå=~Çî~åí~ÖÉëK== mçíÉåíá~ä=ãáäáí~êó=ÅçåÑêçåí~íáçå=ïáíÜ=êÉÖáçå~ä=åÉáÖÜÄçìêë=áåÅäK=p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~K= = Iran Key ratios 2016 Population (mil.) 80 GDP/capita (US$) 5 096 GDP (change) 4.2% Inflation 9.3% Curr.Acc. Balance/GDP 1.7% Reserves/imports (months) 12 Budget balance (% of GDP) -2.7% Government gross debt (% of GDP) External ratings: Fitch: Not rated Moody's: Not rated S&P: Not rated Peers: Aregntina Greece 15% Chart Key: Moving out from the centre implies less risk. Resilience Liquidity Information Absence of Event Risk Iran Macro Balance Average EM Argentina Graph: Iran scores very weak on most indicators except "macro balance" where it scores marginaly better than the average emerging market country. important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights. SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 Key data: 2011 2012 GDP (US$ bil) 592 587 GDP/capita (US$) 7 870 7 707 GDP (change) 3.7% -6.6% Investments/GDP 32% 26% Budget balance/GDP Govt debt/GDP (net) CPI inflation (%) 20.6% 27.4% Money demand (%) 33% Stock prices (average) 161 179 Interest rates 11.2% 14.8% Exch. Rate ($) 10616 12176 Trade/GDP (%) 38% 28% Oil price (Brent) $111 $112 Millions US $ Export of goods 146 97 Imports of goods 78 69 Other: -9 -5 Current account 59 23 (% of GDP) 9.9% 4.0% FDI 0.1 0.1 Loan repayments -12 -2 Net other capital flows -43 -21 Balance of payments 4 0 Reserves 83 82 Total debt 15 7 o/w short term debt 8 1 Sources: Oxford Economics and SEB estimates Rating history Fitch (eoy) S&P (eoy) Moody's Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Latest IMF arrangements 2013 512 6 630 -1.9% 25% -0.9% 15% 39.3% 5% 360 14.8% 18414 30% $109 2014 425 5 443 4.3% 25% -1.2% 16% 17.2% 14% 493 16.9% 25942 36% $99 2015 409 5 165 2.2% 25% -3.9% 16% 13.8% 14% 522 11.8% 29020 33% $53 2016 407 5 096 4.2% 25% -2.7% 15% 9.3% 13% 553 11.8% 31342 38% $47 2017 414 5 122 4.7% 25% -0.6% 14% 9.0% 13% 571 11.8% 33222 43% $53 2018 428 5 242 4.6% 25% -1.7% 14% 8.5% 13% 654 11.8% 35215 46% $58 93 61 -6 26 5.2% 0.1 -3 -26 -3 79 8 2 86 65 -6 16 3.7% 0.0 -5 -14 -3 76 7 3 72 64 -4 3 0.8% 0.0 -7 1 -3 73 8 6 84 71 -5 7 1.7% 0.0 -9 -1 -3 71 9 7 97 82 -7 8 1.9% 0.0 -11 1 -2 69 11 8 105 90 -8 6 1.5% 0.0 -11 4 -1 68 11 9 Not rated Not rated Not rated Theocratic republic 2017 (Presidential), 2016 (legislative) = important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights. = SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis January, 2016 aáëÅä~áãÉê= = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉ= = qÜÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áå=íÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=Äó=pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖI=~= Çáîáëáçå=ïáíÜáå=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=E“pb_ÒFK== = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=íÜáë=êÉéçêí=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâÛë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå=çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ= ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=íÜáë=êÉéçêí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã=ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç= êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëëÉÇ=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ=êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ= ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=áíë=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå= ~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK=^åóçåÉ=ÅçåëáÇÉêáåÖ=í~âáåÖ=~Åíáçåë=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåí=çÑ=íÜáë= ÇçÅìãÉåí=áë=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=Üáë=çê=ÜÉê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë= ~ë=ÜÉ=çê=ëÜÉ=ÇÉÉãë=åÉÅÉëë~êóK=qÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=áë=ÄÉáåÖ=éêçîáÇÉÇ=~ë=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çåäóI= ~åÇ=åç=ëéÉÅáÑáÅ=~Åíáçåë=~êÉ=ÄÉáåÖ=ëçäáÅáíÉÇ=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=áíX=íç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó= ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê=ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ= Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=çê=áíë=ÅçåíÉåíëK= == pb_=áë=~=éìÄäáÅ=Åçãé~åó=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäãI=pïÉÇÉåI=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~ÄáäáíóK=fí= áë=~==é~êíáÅáé~åí=~í=ã~àçê=kçêÇáÅ=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=bìêçéÉ~å=oÉÖìä~íÉÇ=j~êâÉíë=~åÇ= jìäíáä~íÉê~ä=qê~ÇáåÖ=c~ÅáäáíáÉë=E~ë=ïÉää=~ë=ëçãÉ=åçåJbìêçéÉ~å=Éèìáî~äÉåí=ã~êâÉíëF= Ñçê=íê~ÇáåÖ=áå=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíêìãÉåíëI=ëìÅÜ=~ë=ã~êâÉíë=çéÉê~íÉÇ=Äó=k^pa^n=ljuI= kvpb=bìêçåÉñíI=içåÇçå=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉI=aÉìíëÅÜÉ=_∏êëÉI=pïáëë=bñÅÜ~åÖÉëI= qìêèìçáëÉ=~åÇ=`ÜáJuK=pb_=áë=~ìíÜçêáòÉÇ=~åÇ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=Äó=cáå~åëáåëéÉâíáçåÉå=áå= pïÉÇÉåX=áí=áë=~ìíÜçêáòÉÇ=~åÇ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=äáãáíÉÇ=êÉÖìä~íáçå=Äó=íÜÉ=cáå~åÅá~ä=pÉêîáÅÉë= ^ìíÜçêáíó=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÅçåÇìÅí=çÑ=ÇÉëáÖå~íÉÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÄìëáåÉëë=áå=íÜÉ=rhI=~åÇ=áë= ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=éêçîáëáçåë=çÑ=êÉäÉî~åí=êÉÖìä~íçêë=áå=~ää=çíÜÉê=àìêáëÇáÅíáçåë=ïÜÉêÉ=pb_= ÅçåÇìÅíë=çéÉê~íáçåëK== = pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖK=^ää=êáÖÜíë=êÉëÉêîÉÇK= = important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.
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