SOSC 1860
POPULATION AND SOCIETY
Stuart Gietel-Basten
Associate Professor of Social Science
Spring Term 2017
Why do the Japanese live so long? Why do people say that demography contributed
to China’s huge economic growth, but is now responsible for slowing it down in the
future? Who are the people working to build the 2022 World Cup Stadia in Qatar
under such terrible conditions, and why would they put themselves in such risk? Is
the world overpopulated? Why do we have children in the 21 st century? How can we
measure things when we have no data?
If you have ever pondered these kinds of questions, this course is for you.
This is a course designed to introduce students to the main currents of global
population studies and demography.
The focus will be on understanding the main trends in the key drivers of population
change - namely health and mortality, fertility, migration and nuptiality (marriages) –
as well as how they are measured, what their determinants are and what the future
might look like. No prior statistical skills are assumed.
My name is Stuart Gietel-Basten. I am currently Associate Professor of Social
Science here at HKUST. On behalf of myself and the TAs for this course, may I
welcome you to SOSC1860, and tell you that we are delighted that you have chosen
to learn more (or, for some of you, something) about population studies and
demography.
My research is on the interaction between population change and policy, with a
special emphasis on East and South East Asia. I have mainly written on China, and
Hong Kong as well as on Europe. I am especially interested in how social theory can
help us to understand population change, and how narratives of population are
presented (and misrepresented).
The course will be assessed in a blended fashion, composed of practical workbook,
attendance and exams.
Course code and title
SOSC 1860
POPULATION AND SOCIETY
Enrollment requirement
The course will be primarily grounded in a social demography or population studies
paradigm. This means that the concentration will be on understanding trends and
their determinants, rather than on formal demographic method. As such, only basic
training in maths (High School level) will be required. Students who are keen to
develop more training in formal demographic training and mathematical demography
should talk to me directly for further guidance.
For the assessment, a basic grounding in the use of spreadsheets is required. For
students with little or no knowledge of using MS Excel, it is recommended that a
short online course be taken (e.g. on lynda.com).
In the classes, we will use an interactive system called SOCRATIVE to allow you to
engage with me and each other. This will require the use of a smart phone with the
Socrative app installed. Please ensure that this app is installed on your
smartphone and that you have registered for this course before your first
class. If you do not possess a smart phone, you must use a university provided
handset to indicate your attendance and should be able to borrow the phone of a
‘neighbour’ in the lectures to engage with some of the questions.
For the assessment, you will require access to a computer with MS Excel installed.
You will be using a pre-prepared template to perform some basic demographic
analysis (see below). The template is designed to be used with most recent versions
of MS Excel for PC or Mac. If you choose to perform the analysis using an
alternative spreadsheet
Course objectives, and intended learning outcomes
This is a course designed to introduce students to the main currents of population
studies and demography. The course is designed to be global in scope. However,
because of both the interests of students as well as my own specialisms there is
likely to be disproportionate focus on Asia and Europe.
At the end of the course, students who have attended all elements of the course and
engaged with the literature should:
 Know and critically appraise the sources used for demographic analysis
 Be able to perform basic analyses of demographic data, and critically
appraise these analyses
 Know general trends in core demographic variables around the world
 Be able to interpret these trends by understanding underlying drivers and
determinants
 Be able to critically appraise population projections and forecasts

Be able to understand the inter-relationship between population change and
various global processes related to economy and society
Teaching and learning activities
The course will consist of 21 lectures and five tutorials. Lectures will be interactive
with extensive use of the Socrative system. The tutorials are designed to allow
students to engage more deeply with the data and demographic techniques which
will be introduced in the lectures.
The course will be made up of four ‘mini-modules’: Demography as data science
will introduce the key sources of population data and the challenges relating to
creating a genuinely global view of population change. Components and trends of
population change will introduce students to the measurement, trends and
determinants of the main drivers of population change. The future of populations
will explore the methods and ‘philosophies; or forecasting population change as well
as current assumptions about the future. Finally, Population and the World takes a
thematic view of population and society, covering issues such as ageing, population
decline, population and environment and the global economy.
On average, the reading for the course will equate to one textbook chapter per week.
The course textbook is Population: An Introduction to Concepts and Issues
(Cengage) by John Weeks. Copies will be available within the University. While the
2015 edition is best, earlier editions (available for cheaper purchase online) will be
acceptable. Other reading will be set, and will generally be accessible online. We
will also use the IUSSP Online demographic methods training course. Optional
extended reading will be given in lectures.
A skeleton course outline is provided below:
Class Date
1
2/2
2
7/2
3
9/2
4
5
6
14/2
16/2
21/2
7
23/2
8
28/2
9
2/3
10
7/3
11
12
9/3
14/3
13
16/3
14
15
21/3
23/3
16
28/3
17
30/3
18
19
4/4
6/4
20
11/4
21
22
23
13/4
18/4
20/4
24
25
25/4
27/4
26
2/5
‘MINI-MODULE’
Introduction
Demography as data
science
Components and trends of
population change
The future of populations
Population and the World
Round-up
LECTURE/TUTORIAL
Demography, You and The
World
Population Studies and
Demography: Are They the
Same Thing?
Institutions
Individuals
Sources
HEALTH AND MORTALITY:
Measurements and Trends
HEALTH AND MORTALITY:
Drivers and Determinants
HEALTH AND MORTALITY:
Tutorial
MIGRATION: Measurements
and Trends
MIGRATION: Drivers and
Determinants
Group assignment due
MIGRATION: Tutorial
FERTILITY: Measurements
and trends
FERTILITY: Drivers and
Determinants
FERTILITY: Tutorial
NUPTIALITY: Measurements,
Trends, Drivers and
Determinants
CHANGING POPULATIONS
(Lecture)
CHANGING POPULATIONS
(Tutorial)
Mid-term exam in class
NO CLASS
Projecting and Forecasting:
Lecture
Projecting and Forecasting:
Tutorial
NO CLASS
NO CLASS
Population and the
Environment
Population Ageing
Population, Politics and the
Global Economy
Tutorials will be used mostly to provide demonstrations of data resources and other
websites used in the assignments and final project. In some cases, they will be also
be used to answer questions and conduct discussion. There will be five tutorials
covering core demographic information and studies. Attendance is mandatory.
Grading type, assessment tasks and their respective weighting in
the final grade
The course will be graded as follows:
 Attendance and participation (5%) This will be based upon signing in at
lectures as well as attendance at tutorials
 Workbook: Group assignment (30%) Students will be asked to prepare a 15
minute PPT presentation with recorded audio on one of the core topics
covered in Mini Module 2. It should be submitted by March 7th 2017 on
Canvas. A rubric will be provided later on.
 Workbook: Research Project (25%) Students will asked to write a research
report on one of the themes presented in mini-module four. Successful
research reports will consist of an outline and critical appraisal of the
appropriate past trends and future assumptions as well as an understanding
of the underlying determinants and consequences for policy, economy and
society. Research reports should be about eight double-spaced pages.
Bibliography, graphs, tables and other supporting materials should be
included but will not be counted towards the word count. Further information
will be given into the course
 Midterms (20%) There will be one exam mid-semester. This will be held in
class and will be multiple choice or short answer.
 Finals (20%) This will be multiple choice or short answer, and will take place
during the regular exam period. The final will be cumulative.
Weekly course topics, required and recommended readings
After an introduction, the course will be broken up into a series of ‘mini-modules’,
namely ‘Demography as data science’, ‘Components of population change’,
‘Forecasting and the future of population change’ and ‘Themes in population
studies’. Succeeding in this course – and, indeed, in the field of population studies in
general – will require a good grounding in each of these four areas.
Class 1
Population Studies and Demography: Demography, You and The World
Class 2
Population Studies and Demography: Are They the Same Thing?
You have signed up to do a 13 week course in something called ‘Population and
Society’. However, you might have a few questions in your mind Is this the same
thing as a course in ‘demography’? Is this going to be quantitative or qualitative?
Closer to economics or closer to sociology? What is demography anyway? Is it about
describing or ascribing causality? About reconstructing the past or imaging the
future. How is my life shaped by demographic trends?
In these two classes, then, we will explore:
 What is population studies and demography? And are they the same thing?
 How population change is affecting economic, social, political and cultural
systems around the world (and vice versa)
 What are some of the key theoretical perspectives which shape population
studies and demography?
In these two classes we will also outline the shape of the course, its objectives and
discuss the assessment.
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 1 and 3
Mini-module 1: ‘Demography as data science’
Understanding population change relies upon empirical analysis of data. As such,
understanding the characteristics of these data is a critical base to develop a study
of populations. Knowing what information exists – and for where – is critical in order
for us to know what we can find out, and just as importantly what our limitations are.
Yet, this mini-module is much more than simply a ‘laundry list’ of what is an isn’t
available and for where. Rather, this mini-module seeks to present a deeper
understanding of the processes of data gathering, as well as the motives for different
actors. A matrix of challenges and benefits for both the state and individuals is a
helpful way to think about the history, present state and future of demographic data.
Developing a more in-depth knowledge of this matrix enables a deeper appreciation
of what can be done in demography, but also tells us something about the society
which we relate, and is being created for us.
Core reading for this mini-module
Weeks, Chapter 4
Class 3
‘‘Demography as data science’: Institutions
This class will explore the motivations of institutions for developing data of relevance
to demographers and population studies. The general consensus is that institutions
(usually states) collected demographic information for the purposes of control – for
tax, raising armies, surveying the wealth of the ‘realm’. On the other hand a more
benign regime of data collection (and analysis) by institutions is associated with
welfare, policy design, public health and so on. In this lecture, I will suggest that this
is perhaps a false dichotomy, especially in the Foucauldian paradigm of biopower
and the surveillance state. In particular, we will consider:





Early examples of censuses, passports and other registration
The motivations for designing, developing (and abusing/manipulating) these
systems
Later applications of data for health, welfare, policy
Data and state-building
Foucault and biopower
Extra reading
 Levitan, K. (2011) A Cultural History of the British Census: Envisioning the
Multitude in the Nineteenth Century, London: Palgrave
 Riley, N. and McCarthy, J. (2003) Demography in the Age of the Postmodern,
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
 Legg, S (2005) ‘Foucault's Population Geographies: Classifications,
Biopolitics and Governmental Spaces’ Population, Space and Place 11(3)
137-156.
Class 4
‘‘Demography as data science’: Individuals
The process of developing demographic data is, of course, a two-way process. Just
as individuals are engaged in the process of data collection, they also have a stake
in the process at multiple levels. At one level, the identification of communities of
individuals is crucial, for example in Censuses. Critically, though, systems of civil
registration/vital statistics [CRVS] can convey rights, citizenship and other benefits
for individuals, as well as delivering a vital source of demographic data. Delivering
adequate registration systems is a key development goal for the 21 st century. This is
not always a win-win situation, though, with an array of challenges in terms of the
practicalities for the implementation of such systems for both institutions and
individuals. In particular, we will consider:
 The development of ‘groups’ and ‘communities in Censuses
 The development of CRVS and their global coverage
 Challenges for the implementation of CRVS for the state and individuals
 The interaction between the informal economy, governance, and data
 Individuals as ‘research objects’ (e.g. in surveys)
Extra reading
 Papers in Lancet special series on ‘Counting Births and Deaths’
 Kertzer, D. and Arel, D. Census and Identity: The Politics of Race, Ethnicity,
and Language in National Censuses, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Class 5
‘Demography as data science’: Sources
The previous two classes have shown the raison d’être, benefits and challenges of
different data systems as well as their potential for further development around the
world. In this class, we will look more closely at the sources themselves in order to
find out precisely what information we can glean from them. We will explore the main
sources of demographic information, namely census, CRVS (including population
registers) and surveys; considering the benefits and challenges of each. Knowing
what is possible with each source is very important; but just as important is knowing
how to combine them to both measure, validate and triangulate. Yet, the current
state of population studies is such that these ‘classical’ sources are being
supplemented (sometimes replaced) by other sources of data and, as a
consequence, methods of exploring populations. What are the prospects for
demographic data in different parts of the world? And how will the distinctly Victorianera Census fare against the growth of ‘Big Data’?
In particular, we will consider:
 Strengths, weaknesses, coverage, and contents of Censuses
 Strengths, weaknesses, coverage, and contents of CRVS systems
 Strengths, weaknesses, coverage, and contents of surveys
 Individual and combined uses of these three ‘classical’ sources of data
 ‘New’ data possibilities (e.g. geodemography, big data, genomics)
Extra reading:



Papers in Lancet special series on ‘Counting Births and Deaths’
See presentations from United Nations Expert Group Meeting on
“Strengthening the demographic evidence base for the post-2015
development agenda”
National Research Council. 2007. Biosocial Surveys. Washington, DC: The
National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/11939. [Available as PDF here].
Mini-module 2: Components and trends of population change
Any scientific exploration requires a ‘literacy’ in the core components. In this minimodule we will explore the main components of demographic change – namely
mortality, migration and fertility. Nuptiality (or marriage) is usually regarded as a
‘secondary’ component, which shapes trends in fertility (and migration), but is
considered here too.
When learning a language, the first steps tend to revolve around understanding how
that language is constructed through grammar. Then you learn words. Then
eventually you learn how the language works. Social science is just the same. The
first steps in understanding these demographic drivers will necessarily be a rather
dry introduction to the measurements we use and how they are constructed. Think of
this as learning the grammar of demography. This builds on the work on data
sources in mini-module 1.
Then we will look at trends over time. Understanding these patterns tell us a lot
about these different processes and how they are operating and interacting
differently across the world. Think of this as learning the vocabulary of demography.
Finally, we will explore the determinants, or drivers of these patterns. Think of this as
the linguistics of demography. Putting these things together in relationship to
mortality, then, you can think of it as three questions: how do we measure mortality?
What have been the patterns of mortality to the present day? What do those patterns
look the way they do? (or, what is driving these patterns).
Core reading: See for individual classes; and Haupt 2004.
Class 6
HEALTH AND MORTALITY: Measurements and Trends
Class 7
HEALTH AND MORTALITY: Drivers and Determinants
Class 8
HEALTH AND MORTALITY: Tutorial
Changes in patterns of mortality have primarily driven the tremendous growth in
global population over the past centuries. There has been little short of a revolution
in terms of health and mortality in most parts of the world. Yet, there is still
tremendous inequality.
These three classes will explore the measurements, trends and determinants of
health and mortality. Given how closely health is related to changes in mortality, we
will explore some components of that here – though this will inevitably be only brief,
and should be followed up in other courses. Given the breadth of issues relating to
health and mortality, we devote three classes to understanding the issue. In
particular, we will explore:
 Different measurements of mortality and their pros and cons
 Patterns of changes in mortality over the centuries
 Drivers and determinants of changes in both health and mortality
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 5
Class 9
MIGRATION: Measurements and Trends
Class 10
MIGRATION: Drivers and Determinants
Class 11
MIGRATION: Tutorial
Migration is currently one of the ‘hot topics’ in terms of global demography – from the
refugee crisis in Europe through to the treatment of workers constructing the Soccer
World Cup Stadia in Qatar. More locally in Hong Kong, the treatment of domestic
helpers and the past strain on maternity services from women from the Mainland
giving birth here shows that not just the scale of migration is important, but also
understanding its economic, social and cultural implications.
In these two classes we will explore the measurements, trends and determinants of
migration. In particular, we will explore:
 Different measurements of migration and the challenges presented by poor
data
 Patterns of change in migration, globally, regionally and domestically
 Drivers and determinants of changes in migration, with a focus on the global
labour supply chain
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 7
Class 12
FERTILITY: Measurements and trends
Class 13
FERTILITY: Drivers and Determinants
Class 14
FERTILITY: Tutorial
In East Asia, fertility is often the demographic driver which is in the news the most.
This is especially the case given that very low fertility is seen to be the primary culprit
between population ageing, seen to be one of the greatest threats to the economy
and public policy in the region. However, in other parts of the world, very high fertility
(coupled with relatively low fertility) is driving extremely rapid population growth,
leading to concerns about resource use, the environment and raising the prospects
of Malthusian style crises.
In these two classes we will explore the measurements, trends and determinants of
fertility. In particular, we will explore:
 Different measurements of fertility, and how the most widely used
measurements are not always the most helpful
 Patterns of change in fertility, globally, regionally and domestically; including
different family sizes, shapes and configurations
 Drivers and determinants of changes in fertility
 Some theoretical considerations: Demographic Transition, Second
Demographic Transition, Individualisation and Risk Society
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 6 (and relevant parts of Chapter 10); Basten 2015
Class 15
NUPTIALITY: Measurements, Trends, Drivers and Determinants
Marriage is usually considered as a secondary driver within demography – in terms
of being something that shapes fertility (and possibly migration). However, changes
in the ways in which partnerships are formed and attitudes towards different types of
partnerships (and their dissolution) are equally revolutionary as other demographic
changes. Indeed, it has often been argued that very fertility in East Asia is as much a
result of eschewing the ‘marriage package’ as it is about eschewing childbearing.
In these two classes we will explore the measurements, trends and determinants of
nuptiality. In particular, we will explore:
 Different definitions and measurements of nuptiality and divorce, and how
these figures can be misrepresented
 Patterns of change in nuptiality (globally, regionally and domestically)
 Drivers and determinants of changes in nuptiality

The interaction between nuptiality, fertility and migration – both empirically
and theoretically
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 10
Class 16
CHANGING POPULATIONS (Lecture)
Class 17
CHANGING POPULATIONS (Tutorial)
In the previous seven classes we explore the measurements and trends of the core
components of demography, as well as first looks at their determinants. Of course,
these components interact with each other to affect the size and shape of
populations. The size and shape of populations clearly plays a critical role in all sorts
of outocmes, from economic performance, to resource use. In particular, we will
introduce the themes of population growth, decline and ageing here.
In this class, then, we will explore:
 Different measurements of population growth
 Different ways of representing the size and shape of populations (e.g through
population pyramids)
 How other characteristics such as sex and education can be just as important
the standard differentiation of populations by age
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 2 (and relevant parts of Weeks Chapter 8).
Mini-module 3: The future of populations
In the first two classes, we explored what might be the point of demography and
understanding populations and their rates/types of change. So far we have focussed
upon reconstructing the past in order to understand between the world in which we
live today, and the inherent challenges and opportunities presented. However,
thinking about the possible future(s) of demographic change, on a global and a local
level, is a critical component of any demographer’s work. Whether this is thinking in
terms of anticipating future economic growth, or the policy challenges of population
ageing; through to how many school places might be needed and how many
dustbins need to be emptied.
In this mini-module, we will firstly explore the methods and ‘philosophies’ of thinking
about the future, then move towards understanding some of the different visions of
the future which have been presented and what the implications of that might be.
Class 18
Projecting and Forecasting: Lecture
Class 19
Projecting and Forecasting: Tutorial
In the same way that we had to learn the measurements of demography in order to
understand trends, so too must we learn the basic principles of conceptualising the
future. We will understand that different methods and approaches exist which rely to
a greater or lesser extent on statistical methods and/or sociological understandings
of the world. In particular, it is important to remember that projections are not
‘neutral’ or passive; rather they are ‘active’ and can be critical in shaping the actual
future directions of policy and therefore populations and their activities. IN other
words, projections can actively prove themselves wrong.
In this class, then, we will explore:
 Different approaches to projections and forecasting
 The ‘science’ of assumption design
 Some basic methodologies (including forecasting beyond just population size)
 Incorporating uncertainty through scenarios and stochastic forecasting
Core reading: O’Neill et al 2001
Class 20
The Future of Global Population Drivers
These classes will build upon both Class 16 on projection methods and the
empirical/theoretical work you did in Mini-module 2. We will explore both past
projections of the future and current ones to try to anticipate how and why these
different views of the world are come to.
In particular, then, we will explore:
 Assumptions of future trends of mortality, migration and fertility
 The justification of the assumptions and alternative pathways
 Different empirical futures of these trends
Core reading: Lutz et al. 2015 (Class 17: Chapters 5-6; Class 18: Chapter 7; Class
19: Chapters 3-4; Class 20: Chapters 8,10)
Mini-module 4: Population and the World
So far in the course we have developed an understanding of (a) the sources of data
for demographic analysis; (b) how we measure populations and population change;
(c) trends in these changes; (d) determinants of these trends; culminating in (e) a
critical view of the future of these trends. Now, however, we need to consider how all
of these aspects of population change relate to the world around us. Clearly, these
are two way interactions. As such, thematic discussions which encompass and build
upon the gained knowledge of population change will allow for a deeper
understanding of these challenges and opportunities.
Class 21
Population and the Environment
One of the reasons why population is often in the news is because of the concern
which unfettered growth is presented to have on the environment. However, of
course the states which have the highest per capita carbon emissions are often
those which have only very modest population growth, and vice versa. As such, a
unidirectional relationship between population and the environment is likely to be
flawed.
In this class, then we will explore:
 The standard narratives between population and the environment (e.g. The
Population Bomb and beyond)
 Alternative perspective (including resource use rather than raw numbers)
 Climate change adaptation and mitigation, and the potential role of
demographic change in this
Core reading: Chapter 11
Class 22
Population Decline
While population growth has been seen as a threat to the environment (and, to a
degree, security – especially historically), population decline is also held to be a
major concern especially in the classical model of economic growth.
In this class, then, we will explore:
 The countries of the world for whom population decline is forecast
 How this has been seen as a threat to their economic and political future
 Reappraising the problems of population decline
Core reading: Coleman and Rowthorn 2011; van Dalens and Henkens 2011
Class 23
Population Ageing
In East Asia, perhaps more so than any other region of the world, population ageing
is held to be one of the greatest threats to future economic prosperity. As well as
changes in the size and shape of the labour market, the sustainability of whole
systems which relied on the family for care is coming under increasing strain.
In this class, then, we will explore:
 How population ageing is conceptualised and measured (and how this can be
thought of differently, including prospective ageing and National Transfer
Accounts)
 Patterns of population ageing around the world (by alternative measures)
 The notions of first and demographic dividend, active ageing and ‘youth bulge’
 Perceived challenges (and opportunities) of population ageing (including
intergenerational justice) at both the macro- and micro-level
Core reading: Weeks Chapter 8, Basten et al. 2013
Class 24
Population and Politics
Demographic changes have been said to be having a profound effect on politics –
especially in democratic countries. In particular, changing shifts in age and ethnicity
as well as the issue of migration, are all regularly seen in the day-to-day discussions
of the functions of government.
In this class, then, we will explore:
 How the ageing population is changing the face of electorates around the
world and how this might impact upon policy
 How gender and ethnicity can reshape preferences for particular parties/
policies (or not)
 How concerns over population feed into political narratives
 How future trends might further affect these issues
Core reading: various chapters in Goldstone et al. 2012
Class 25
Population and the Global Economy
When I was a child growing up in the UK, lots and lots of cheap things in shops were
‘Made in Hong Kong’. Now, if you look in the labels, these same goods are marked
‘Made in Bangladesh’, ‘Made in Turkey’, ‘Made in Vietnam’, even ‘Made in the
Maldives. A major part of this transition is related to population change meditating
the costs of labour.
In this final substantive class, then, we explore:
 How population change fits into the story of globalisation
 How different demographic circumstances force factories to upscale, or for
factories to move to people, or for people to move to factories
 How China is planning to cope with future population decline, and the
potential for One Belt One Road and other initiatives
Core reading: Relevant part of Weeks Chapters 2 and 11
Class 26
Round-up
This class, simply, will allow for a round-up of the main themes of the course and a
discussion of the topics. It will also present an opportunity to explore in greater
depth themes already covered, or to examine questions not addressed in the course
but of interest to students.