FACTOR I: STRATEGICSKILLS
CLUSTER B: MAKING COMPLEX DECISIONS
17 Decision Quality
No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking into account not only the world as it is,
but the world as it will be…. Isaac Asimov – Russian-born American-Jewish author and biochemist
Section 1: Your Development Need(s)
Unskilled
 Goes first with quick solutions, conclusions and statements before analysis
 May rely too much on self—doesn’t ask for help
 Making decisions may trigger emotions and impatience
 May not use orderly decision methods, models or ways to think
 May jump to conclusions based on prejudices, historical solutions or narrow perspective
 Doesn’t take the time to define the problem before deciding
 May have trouble with complexity
 May wait too long, agonize over every detail to avoid risk or error
 May go for the big elegant decision when five little ones would be better
Select one to three of the competencies listed below to use as a substitute for this competency if you decide not to
work on it directly.
Substitutes: 5,12,24,30,32,46,47,50,51,53,58
Skilled
 Makes good decisions (without considering how much time it takes) based upon a mixture of analysis,
wisdom, experience, and judgment
 Most of his/her solutions and suggestions turn out to be correct and accurate when judged over time
 Sought out by others for advice and solutions
Overused Skill
 May see him/herself as overly wise or close to perfect, as someone who can’t or doesn’t make mistakes
 May be seen as stubborn and not willing to negotiate or compromise
 May get frustrated when advice is rejected
 May not relate well to less data-based people
Select one to three of the competencies listed below to work on to compensate for an overuse of this skill.
Compensators: 2,5,12,16,30,32,33,37,45,51,52,58,61,63
Some Causes
 Arrogant
 Excessive emotionality; avoiding risk and exposure
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 Faulty thinking
 Impatient; don’t wait for the data
 Narrow perspective
 Perfectionist; wait too long for all of the data
 Prejudiced; preconceived solutions; rigid
 Want to do it all yourself; won’t ask for help
Leadership Architect® Factors and Clusters
This competency is in the Strategic Skills Factor (I). This competency is in the Making Complex Decisions
Cluster (B) with: 30, 32, 51. You may want to check other competencies in the same Factor/Cluster for related
tips.
The Map
Life and work are just a series of big and small decisions followed by action in line with the decisions. Good
decisions are based upon a mixture of data, analysis, intuition, wisdom, experience, and judgment. Making
good decisions involves being patient enough to collect the available information, being humble enough to ask
for other people’s opinions and thoughts and then coldly making the decision. No one is ever right all the time;
it’s the percent correct over time that matters.
Section 2: Learning on Your Own
These self-development remedies will help you build your skill(s).
Some Remedies
 1. Attitudes in play? Know your biases. Be clear and honest with yourself about your attitudes, beliefs,
biases, opinions and prejudices and your favorite solutions. We all have them. The key is not to let them
affect your objective and cold decision making. Before making any sizable decision, ask yourself, are any
of my biases affecting this decision? Do you play favorites, deciding quickly in one area, but holding off in
another? Do you avoid certain topics, people, groups, functional areas because you’re not comfortable or
don’t know? Do you drag out your favorite solutions often? Too often?
 2. Making hasty assumptions? Check for common errors in thinking. Do you state as facts things that
are really opinions or assumptions? Are you sure these assertions are facts? State opinions and
assumptions as that and don’t present them as facts. Do you attribute cause and effect to relationships
when you don’t know if one causes the other? If sales are down, and we increase advertising and sales go
up, this doesn’t prove causality. They are simply related. Say we know that the relationship between
sales/advertising is about the same as sales/number of employees. If sales go down, we probably wouldn’t
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hire more people, so make sure one thing causes the other before acting on it. Do you generalize from a
single example without knowing if that single example does generalize?
 3. Do you do enough analysis? Thoroughly define the problem. Figure out what causes it. Keep
asking why. See how many causes you can come up with and how many organizing buckets you can put
them in. This increases the chance of a better solution because you can see more connections. Look for
patterns in data, don’t just collect information. Put it in categories that make sense to you. A good rule of
thumb is to analyze patterns and causes to come up with alternatives. Many of us just collect data, which
numerous studies show increases our confidence but doesn’t increase decision accuracy. Think out loud
with others; see how they view the problem. Studies show that defining the problem and taking action
usually occur simultaneously, so to break out of analysis paralysis, figure out what the problem is first.
Then when a good alternative appears you’re likely to recognize it immediately.
 4. What’s your track record? Consider your history. Do an objective analysis of decisions you have
made in the past and what the percentage correct was. Break the decisions into topics or areas of your life.
For most of us, we make better decisions in some areas than others. Maybe your decision-making skills
need help in one or two limited areas, like decisions about people, decisions about your career, political
decisions, technical, etc.
 5. Eager to act? Hold your horses. Life is a balance between waiting and doing. Many in management
put a premium on doing over waiting. Most could make close to 100% good decisions given all of the data
and unlimited time. Life affords us neither the data nor the time. You may need to try to discipline yourself
to wait just a little longer than you usually do for more, but not all, the data to come in. Push yourself to
always get one more piece of data than you did before until your correct decision percent becomes more
acceptable. Instead of just doing it, ask what questions would need to be answered before we’d know
which way to go. In one study of problem solving, answers outnumbered questions 8 to 1. We jump to
solutions based on what has worked in the past. So collect data to answer these questions, then shoot.
More help? – See #51 Problem Solving.
 6. Hesitant? Find one more alternative solution. Play out the consequences in your head to see how the
decision would play in real life. Test out a number of decisions. Some research says that the best decision
isn’t always the first or even the second solution you think of. The highest-quality decisions are somewhere
between the second and third decision you come to. You may be hesitating because your little voice in
your head is telling you something isn’t right.
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 7. Can’t decide? Sleep on it. The brain works on things even when you are not thinking about them. Take
some time, do something completely different, and get back to the decision later. Let a night’s sleep go by
and return to it in the morning.
 8. Need input? Use others to help. Delegate the decision. Sometime others above, aside, or below you
may be in a better position to make the decision. Create a group or task force, present the decision and all
you know about it, and let the group decide. Or set up competing groups or find a buddy group in another
function or organization which faces a similar problem or consult history—surely this has happened before.
Up your odds through others.
 9. Have a guru in mind? Study decision makers. Whom do you admire? Bill Gates? Winston Churchill?
Read the biographies and autobiographies of a few people you respect, and pay attention to how they
made decisions in their life and careers. Write down five things they did that you can do. For example,
Churchill always slept on important decisions no matter what. He initially only asked questions and tried to
understand the problem and argument as given. He kept his views to himself until later.
 10. Know someone effective at making decisions? Go to a model decision maker. Find someone
around you who makes decisions in a way you think you ought to and ask how he/she does it. Go through
several decision processes. Try to figure out with the person what questions he/she asks, and what
principles are being followed. See how much he/she relies on advice, consults history for parallels, checks
in with various constituencies and how she/he gets familiar with unfamiliar areas.
Section 3: Learning from Feedback
These sources would give you the most accurate and detailed feedback on your skill(s).
 1. Boss’s Boss(es)
From a process standpoint, your boss’s boss probably has the most influence and control over your
progress. He/she has a broader perspective, has more access to data, and stands at the center of
decisions about you. To know what he/she thinks, without having to violate the canons of corporate due
process to get that information, would be quite useful.
 2. Direct Boss
Your direct boss has important information about you, your performance, and your prospects. The
challenge is to get this information. There are formal processes (e.g., performance appraisals). There are
day-to-day opportunities. To help, signal your boss that you want and can handle direct and timely
feedback. Many bosses have trouble giving feedback, so you will have to work at it over a period of time.
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 3. Past Associates/Constituencies
When confronted with a present performance problem, some claim, ―I wasn’t like that before; it must be the
current situation.‖ When feedback is available from former associates, about 50% support that claim. In the
other half of the cases, the people were like that before and probably didn’t know it. It sometimes makes
sense to access the past to clearly see the present.
 4. Peers and Colleagues
Peers and colleagues have a special social and working relationship. They attend staff meetings together,
share private views, get feedback from the same boss, travel together, and are knowledgeable about each
other’s work. You perhaps let your guard down more around peers and act more like yourself. They can be
a valuable source of feedback.
Section 4: Learning from Develop-in-Place Assignments
These part-time develop-in-place assignments will help you build your skill(s).
 Plan a new site for a building (plant, field office, headquarters, etc.).
 Manage the purchase of a major product, equipment, materials, program, or system.
 Launch a new product, service, or process.
 Relaunch an existing product or service that’s not doing well.
 Hire/staff a team from outside your unit or organization.
 Work on a team forming a joint venture or partnership.
 Manage the interface between consultants and the organization on a critical assignment.
 Handle a tough negotiation with an internal or external client or customer.
 Manage a dissatisfied internal or external customer; troubleshoot a performance or quality problem with a
product or service.
 Build a multifunctional project team to tackle a common business issue or problem.
Section 5: Learning from Full-Time Jobs
These full-time jobs offer the opportunity to build your skill(s).
 1. Fix-Its/Turnarounds
The core demands to qualify as a Fix-it or Turnaround assignment are: (1) Clean-ing up a mess. (2)
Serious people issues/problems like credibility/performance/morale. (3) Tight deadline. (4) Serious
business performance failure. (5) Last chance to fix. Four types of Fix-its/Turnarounds: (1) Fixing a failed
business/unit involving taking control, stopping losses, managing damage, planning the turnaround, dealing
with people problems, installing new processes and systems, and rebuilding the spirit and performance of
the unit. (2) Managing sizable disasters like mishandled labor negotiations and strikes, thefts, history of
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significant business losses, poor staff, failed leadership, hidden problems, fraud, public relations
nightmares, etc. (3) Significant reorganization and restructuring (e.g., stabilizing the business, re-forming
unit, introducing new systems, making people changes, resetting strategy and tactics). (4) Significant
system/process breakdown (e.g., MIS, financial coordination processes, audits, standards, etc.) across
units requiring working from a distant position to change something, providing advice and counsel, and
installing or implementing a major process improvement or system change outside your own unit and/or
with customers outside the organization.
 2. Member of Projects/Task Forces
The core demands for qualifying as a Project/Task Force assignment are: (1) Member of a group with an
important and specific goal. (2) Tight deadline. (3) Success or failure will be evident. (4) High-visibility
sponsor. (5) Learning something on the fly. (6) Must cooperate with others. (7) Usually six months or more.
Three types of Projects/Task Forces: (1) New ideas, products, services, or systems (e.g.,
product/service/program research and development, creation/installation/launch of a new system,
programs like TQM, ISO and Six Sigma, positive discipline). (2) Formal negotiations and relationships (e.g.,
acquisitions; divestitures; agreements; joint ventures; licensing arrangements; franchising; dealing with
unions, governments, communities, charities, customers, and relocations). (3) Big one-time events (e.g.,
working on a major presentation for the board; organizing significant meetings or conferences;
reorganizations, mergers, acquisitions, or relocations; working on visions, charters, strategies, other timeurgent issues and problems).
 3. Scope Assignments
The core demands for a Scope (complexity) assignment are: (1) Significant in-crease in both internal and
external scope or complexity. (2) Significant increase in visibility and/or bottom-line responsibility. (3)
Unfamiliar area, business, technol-ogy, or territory. Examples of Scope assignments involving shifts: (1)
Switching to new function/technology/business. (2) Moving to new organization. (3) Moving to overseas
assignment. (4) Moving to new location. (5) Adding new products/services. (6) Moving between
headquarters/field. (7) Switches in ownership/top management of the unit/organization. Examples of Scope
assignments involving ―firsts‖: (1) First-time manager. (2) First-time managing managers. (3) First-time
executive. (4) First-time overseas. (5) First-time headquarters/field. (6) First-time team leader. (7) First-time
new technology/business/function. Scope assignments involving increased complexity: (1) Managing a
significant expansion of an existing product or service. (2) Managing adding new products/services into an
existing unit. (3) Managing a reorganized and more diverse unit. (4) Managing explosive growth. (5) Adding
new technologies.
 4. Staff to Line Shifts
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Core demands necessary to qualify for a Staff to Line shift are: (1) Moving to a job with an easily
determined bottom line or results. (2) Managing bigger scope and/or scale. (3) Requires new
skills/perspectives. (4) Unfamiliar aspects of the assignment. Examples of Staff to Line shifts would be: (1)
Moving from support function to business unit with P&L responsibility. (2) Product manager responsible for
product life cycle, revenue projections, and inventory planning. (3) General manager position. (4) Manager
responsible for a region or a product line or brand.
Section 6: Learning from Your Plan
These additional remedies will help make this development plan more effective for you.
Learning to Learn Better
 1. Monitor Yourself More Closely and Get off Your Autopilot
Past habits are a mixed blessing, sometimes helping, sometimes not. To avoid putting yourself on
―autopilot,‖ think afresh about each situation before acting. Consistently monitor yourself with questions. Is
this task different? Ask why you would repeat a past action. Are you avoiding anything, like taking a
chance? Is there something new you might try?
 2. Plan Backwards from the Ideal
Envision what an ideal outcome would look like and plan backwards. What is the series of events that
would have to take place to get there? What would people do? What would have to be done? How would
people react? How would things play out? Could you plan it forward and get to the same outcome?
 3. Envision Yourself Succeeding
Envision yourself succeeding. Examine the image in detail: what you are doing, what you are feeling, how
you are reacting to others, how others are reacting to you, how the parts fit together. Can you then play
that out in the real situation and get to the same outcome?
 4. Look Beyond Your First Solution to a Problem
Don’t always take the first action you think of. Look further for a second and third: What’s different? Might
the second or third be more effective? Research shows that the best solution lies somewhere between the
second and third strategies or approaches. Your first solution is often an ―autopilot‖ response and may not
be the best.
 5. Examine How You Think and Solve Problems
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Try to outline how you’ve attacked or solved something. List the things you considered or rejected. How did
your thinking flow? Did you use facts or opinions or both? Does it flow properly? Do a flow diagram of the
process you followed. Were there any breakdowns? Could you have done it better?
 6. Do More Pro and Con Analysis Before Deciding and Acting
When facing a significant challenge, draw up multiple courses of action and list the pros and cons for each;
do an analysis of each to see how it would play out. Pick one to try, and see if your predictions were
correct.
 7. Form an Advisory Group to Help You
Assemble a one-time ad hoc group of people you respect and ask them for help solving or facing a
significant issue. Outline what you know about it, and ask the team to lay out a plan. Have them examine
your thinking and suggest changes and improvements.
 8. Sort Through Information in Multiple Ways
Collect the data and arrange it in elements or pieces. Create definitions and arrange the data in various
ways: chronologically, from most to least, from biggest to smallest, from cold to hot, what you know most
about and least about, from known to unknown, etc., until the meaning becomes obvious.
Learning from Experience, Feedback, and Other People
 9. Feedback on What?
Although any feedback is useful, it’s best to seek and receive feedback on skills the organization feels are
the most important for your present and future success. Not all skills are equal in importance. Some
common skills may not have much bearing on success at all. If the organization has an official success
profile, that may be the best way to focus your growth efforts.
Learning from Courses
 10. Strategic Courses
There are a number of courses designed to stretch minds to prepare for future challenges. They include
topics such as workforce diversity, globalization, the European economic community, competitive
competencies and strategies, etc. Quality depends upon the following three factors: (1) The quality of the
staff. Are they qualified? Are they respected in their fields? Are they strategic ―gurus‖? (2) The quality of the
participants. Are they the kind of people you could learn from? (3) The quality of the setting. Is it
comfortable and free from distractions? Can you learn there?
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When you approach a problem, strip yourself of preconceived opinions and prejudice, assemble and
learn the facts of the situation, make the decision which seems to you to be the most honest, and
then stick to it. Chester Bowles – American diplomat and politician
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Suggested Readings
Ariely, D. (2009). Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decisions (Rev. ed.). New York:
HarperCollins.
Ariely, D. (2010). The upside of irrationality: The unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home.
New York: HarperCollins.
Bazerman, H. (2002). Judgment in managerial decision making. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Brousseau, K. R., Driver, M. J., Hourihan, G., & Larsson, R. (2006). The seasoned executive’s decisionmaking style. Harvard Business Review, 84, 109-121.
Buchanan, L., & O’Connell, A. (2006). A brief history of decision making. Harvard Business Review, 84, 32-41.
Campbell, A., Whitehead, J., & Finkelstein, S. (2009). Why good leaders make bad decisions. Harvard
Business Review, 87(2), 60-66.
Driver, M. J., Hunsaker, P., & Brousseau, K. R. (1998). The dynamic decision maker. New York: Harper &
Row.
Drucker, P. F., Hammond, J., Keeney, R., Raiffa, H., & Hayashi, A.M. (2001). Harvard Business Review on
decision making. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
Gunther, R. E., Hoch, S. J., & Kunreuther, H. C. (2001). Wharton on making decisions. Hoboken, NJ: John
Wiley & Sons.
Guy, A. K. (2004). Balanced scorecard diagnostics: Maximizing performance through the dynamic decision
framework. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Hammond, J. S., III., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (2006). The hidden traps in decision making. Boston: Harvard
Business School Press.
Harvard Business Essentials. (2006). Decision making: 5 Steps to better results. Boston: Harvard Business
School Press.
Harvard Business School Press. (2007). Harvard Business Review on making smarter decisions. Boston:
Harvard Business School Press.
Henderson, D. R., & Hooper, C. L. (2006). Making great decisions in business and life. Chicago Park, CA:
Chicago Park Press.
Kaner, S., Lind, L., Toldi, C., & Fisk, S. (2007). Facilitator‘s guide to participatory decision-making. San
Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Klein, G. (2001). The power of intuition: How to use your gut feelings to make better decisions at work. New
York: Currency.
Mauboussin, M. J. (2009). Think twice: Harnessing the power of counterintuition. Boston: Harvard Business
School Press.
Patton, B. R., & Downs, T. M. (2002). Decision-making group interaction: Achieving quality. Boston: Allyn &
Bacon.
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Rosenberger, L. E., & Nash, J. (with Graham, A.). (2009). The deciding factor: The power of analytics to make
every decision a winner. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Roth, B. M., & Mullen, J. D. (2002). Decision making: Its logic and practice. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.
Snowden, D. J., & Boone, M. E. (2007). A leader’s framework for decision making. Harvard Business Review,
85, 68-76.
Thompson, H. L. (2010). The stress effect: Why smart leaders make dumb decisions – And what to do about it.
San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Tichy, N. M., & Bennis, W. G. (2007). Judgment: How winning leaders make great calls. New York: Penguin
Group.
Tichy, N. M., & Bennis, W. G. (2007). Making judgment calls. Harvard Business Review, 85, 94-102.
Yates, J. F. (2003). Decision management: How to assure better decisions in your company. San Francisco:
Jossey-Bass.
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