Sixth Northwest Power Plan
Mid-Term Assessment
Presentation to ColumbiaGrid
Charlie Black
Power Planning Division Director
Northwest Power and Conservation Council
October 25, 2012
Topics
 Northwest Power and Conservation Council
 Sixth Northwest Power Plan
 Mid-Term Assessment
 Regional Power and Transmission Planning
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Northwest Power and
Conservation Council
 Formed by the Northwest Power Planning Act of 1980
 Interstate compact among Idaho, Montana, Oregon and
Washington
• Governed by eight Council Members, two from each state
 Charged by Congress to perform three functions:
• Develop long-term power plan for the Northwest region
• Develop fish and wildlife program for the Columbia Basin
• Actively engage and involve the public in its activities
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Northwest Power Plan
 Long-term regional power plan
 Updated every five years
 Electricity demand and price forecasts
 Identifies least-cost, least-risk resources
 Northwest Power Act decreed energy efficiency as the
priority resource to meet future load growth and gave
it a 10% cost advantage over other resources
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Sixth Northwest Power Plan
 Issued early 2010
 Resource strategy (2010-2029):
• Energy efficiency to meet 85 percent of forecasted growth in
customer demands
• Integrate renewable resources (mainly wind) being developed to
meet state RPSs
• Prepare to add natural gas-fired generation when needed
 Action plan (2010-2014)
• Develop 1,100 to 1,400 average megawatts of energy efficiency
• Increase supply and reduce demand for system flexibility
• Assess and ensure system resource adequacy
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Resource Additions in the
Sixth Northwest Power Plan *
Cumulative Resource
(Average Megawatts)
9000
Demand
Response
8000
7000
Simple-Cycle
Gas
6000
5000
4000
Combined-Cycle
Gas
3000
Renewables
2000
Energy
Efficiency
1000
0
2009
2014
2019
2024
* Expected-value build out. Actual build out schedule depends on future conditions.
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The Northwest Has Exceeded Its Energy
Efficiency Goals Every Year Since 2005
300
277
Annual Savings (aMW)
Target
250
255
234
Actual
203
200
150
231
135
147
100
50
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Utilities’ Average Levelized Cost of
Energy Efficiency is Below $20/MWh
$20
Levelized Cost of Savings
(2006$/MWh)
$18
$16
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
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Energy Efficiency Has Become the
Northwest’s Third Largest Resource
Natural Gas
11%
Nuclear
4%
Biomass
Wind 1%
4%
Petroleum & Pet
Coke
<1%
Hydropower
46%
Geothermal
<1%
Energy Efficiency
16%
Coal
18%
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Efficiency Has Met Over Half of
Northwest Load Growth Since 1980
30
Efficiency Resource
Load Net of Efficiency
1980 Load
Regional Load (GWa)
25
20
15
10
5
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
10
Electricity Use Per Dollar of GDP Has
Declined Faster in Northwest than in US
Kilowatt-hours Per 2005$
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
US
0.20
Northwest
0.10
0.00
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
Levelized Cost of Energy Efficiency is Less
Than Gas-Fired Combined Cycle Generation
Levelized Cost (2006$/MWh)
$160
$140
$120
$100
$80
$60
$40
$20
$0
$2.00/MMBtu
$4.00/MMBtu
$6.00/MMBtu
Lifetime Natural Gas Price
PNW Maximum CF (79%)
PNW Average CF (51%)
PNW Minimum CF (17%)
Historical Utility Cost of Efficiency
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Levelized Cost of Energy Efficiency Also Lower
and Less Volatile Than Wholesale Power Prices
Wholesale Power Price (2006$/MWh)
$100
$90
$80
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
Levelized Cost of Utility Efficiency Acquisitions
Average Wholesale Market Price @ Mid-C Trading Hub
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Mid-Term Assessment
14
The Deming Cycle
We Are Here
Major Purposes

Check on progress implementing the Sixth Northwest
Power Plan

‘Tee up’ issues for the upcoming Seventh Power Plan
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Developments Since Early 2010
 Low market prices for natural gas and wholesale power
 Slower than expected development of carbon
regulation
 Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions are declining
 Reduced dispatch, announced retirements of coal
plants
 Slow load growth
 Intra-regional conditions affect opportunities and
needs
 Wind resource development and integration
 Emerging needs for peaking capacity and flexibility
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Situation Scan Narratives
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Regional economic conditions
Electricity demand
Natural gas markets and prices
Emissions regulations and impacts
Developments affecting imports from California
Demand response activities
Implementation of BPA tiered rates
Wholesale power markets and prices
The region’s utilities face varying circumstances
Energy efficiency achievements
Renewable resources development
Natural gas-fired generation development
Capacity/adequacy/flexibility constraints
Power and transmission system planning
Power and natural gas system planning
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MTA Report Outline
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Introduction and summary
Situation scan narratives
Energy efficiency achievements and implementation issues
Renewable resources development and integration issues
Natural gas-fired generating resources development
Regional resource adequacy
Updates to key forecasts
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•
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Electricity demands
Natural gas prices
CO2 emissions costs
Wholesale power prices
System planning for energy capacity and flexibility
Conclusions and lead-in for seventh power plan
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Regional Power and
Transmission Planning
Discussion
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