Climate Change
and the Rural Economy
Managing land in the face of climate change
The European Landowners’ perspectives on the:
• Implications of climate change
• Land management actions
• Policy considerations
The ELO represents the collective voice of landowners, managers and farmers across Europe. Their business and
private properties are the core for a sustainable and prosperous countryside.
Foreword
The ELO addresses issues that affect European rural areas, which represent over 77% of the EU’s territory
(47% farm land and 30% forest) and is home to around half its population (consisting of farming communities and
other residents).
The agricultural sector has 12 million full-time farmers, with another 3 million jobs created through Europe’s forests.
Agriculture, forestry and the agri-food industry - which is heavily dependent on agriculture for its supplies - account
for 6% of the EU’s GDP, comprise 15 million businesses and provide 49 million jobs.
Acknowledgements
This paper is the result of collaboration between ELO’s staff (directed by Ana Rocha) and its members and supporters,
in particular the policy team at CLA and Michael Sayer.
We are mainly grateful to Dr David Viner (Mott MacDonald) and Corrado Pirzio-Biroli (RISE foundation) for their
expert input.
Land is the basic resource for the production of food and fibre, for biodiversity, and for ecosystem management
in the widest sense. Adaptation and climate mitigation are therefore central to the future of sustainable land management.
The negative consequences of global temperature rises are well known. As greenhouse gas emissions continue
to rise, pressure increases on global leaders to be ambitious and take measures to limit warming to below two
degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels.
As the European Commission advances on its climate initiatives domestically it is timely to reflect on the contribution
of the European countryside to the climate discussions.
Agriculture and forestry are among the sectors most directly affected by climate and are important emitters and
sequesters of emissions.
Janez Potočnik
Chairman of the RISE Foundation
and EU Commissioner for Environment
(2010-2014)
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Contents
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Executive summary
I. Climate Change in context
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II. Implications for land managers
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1. Water resources
2. Soils
3. Pests and diseases
4. Plant growth and yields
5. Ecosystems and biodiversity
6. Rural businesses
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III. Land management actions
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1. Reducing GHG emissions
2. Managing carbon stocks
3. Replacing fossil fuels
4. Managing water resources
5. Managing ecosystems
6. Adapting rural businesses and infrastructure
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IV. Policy considerations
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1. Consider a global approach
2. Consider a local approach
3. Promote the provision of environmental goods and services
4. Promote a sustainable bioeconomy
5. Promote Innovation
6. Capacity building
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V. Conclusions
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Select bibliography
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This paper examines climate change from the perspective of the owners and managers of rural land and
businesses in Europe.
It reflects on the implications for food security and for land management and it focuses on climate friendly
practices by landowners and managers, rather than and consumption habits. Several multipurpose actions are
listed in chapter III that contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation, namely by:
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Reducing greenhouse gas emissions;
Managing carbon stocks efficiently;
Replacing fossil fuels;
Managing water resources to face climate challenges, like storms and droughts;
Managing ecosystems to increase their resilience and the provision of public goods;
Adapting businesses and infrastructures in rural, and often disadvantageous, areas.
The paper finishes with policy considerations that could boost adaptation and mitigation actions in rural areas by:
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Considering a global approach, taking into account the links with other nations and with different sectors;
Considering a local approach;
Promoting the provision of environmental goods and services;
Promoting a sustainable bioeconomy;
Promoting innovation;
Increasing capacity building.
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I.
Climate Change
in context
The evidence is clear (IPCC. 2015). Climate change
is real, and it is largely caused by human activities,
primarily through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from
fossil fuel burning, but also from other activities such as
agriculture and land use changes. Land based activities
emit GHGs, principally carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The first is emitted
mostly through negative changes of carbon stock in
soils and by agricultural inputs that require fossil energy
(mineral fertilizers, animal feed, pesticides). Methane
is released by anaerobic fermentation (in ruminants,
during the handling and storage of animal manure, in
flooded rice fields) and while more short-lived, it is a
more powerful GHG than CO2. Nitrous oxide is generated
by mineral and organic nitrogen fertilizers and manure
management. Water vapour in the air can also trap heat
and so act as a greenhouse gas and to a lesser extent,
agriculture also produces fine particles in the form of
salts that reflect the sun in the atmosphere, such as
ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) and sulphates.
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have
increased, causing the Earth to warm. For instance,
carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by
about 40% since pre-industrial times, with most of the
increase since the 1970s.
Consequently the past decade was globally the warmest
since global temperature records became available,
and annual average land temperatures over Europe
are projected to continue increasing by more than the
global average temperature. The largest temperature
increases are projected over eastern and northern
Europe in winter and over southern Europe in summer.
As temperature increases, it is very likely that the number
and intensity of temperature extremes and heat waves
will increase globally. Rises in sea levels are projected
to accelerate significantly and storm and tidal surges
will become more severe because of the higher base
sea level. In individual events, this may be exacerbated
by associated river flooding.
On the other hand, changes in precipitation may vary
significantly between regions; it is likely to decrease further
in such regions as the Mediterranean and North Africa.
In contrast, more intense and frequent extreme
precipitation events are very likely in most mid-latitude
regions, in, for example, Europe and North America,
and wet tropical regions.
Figure 1. Projected changes in average temperature, 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 for low emission (left: RPC2.6)
and high-emission (right: RCP 8.5) scenarios. Source: IPCC, 2013.
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II.
Implications
for land managers
Climate change is one of the most serious challenges
facing the world, notably influencing migration flows
and the way we manage land resources.
Generally, key risks include floods, droughts, other
weather extremes and fires that damage ecosystems,
biodiversity and harvests, as well as infrastructure and
human well-being.
As climatic conditions directly impact on land based
activities, rural businesses are particularly sensitive to
climate change.
In short, climatic changes will increase the challenges
for land managers mainly in terms of availability of
water resources (1), quality of soils (2), spread of pests
and diseases (3) and consequently plant growth and
yields (4), ecosystems (5) and rural businesses (6),
leading to significant changes in the conditions for land
managers.
1. Water resources
Rainfall patterns will change across Europe. Annual precipitation is generally projected to increase in northern
Europe and to decrease in southern Europe, thereby enhancing the differences between currently wet regions
and currently dry regions. In northern Europe and at
higher altitudes this can result in increased growth rates
and yields, while in southern Europe there is a greater
risk of drought, fire and desertification. The differences
are not only geographical but also seasonal, as spring
and summer droughts are expected to increase, while
wetter autumns and winters will hinder cultivation on
heavier soils.
Generally the global groundwater recharge is expected
to decrease, increasing the exposure of already
vulnerable regions in Europe. Even in northern Europe,
increased rainfall is not likely to be reflected fully in
groundwater levels due to the greater intensity of rainfall
events and higher evapotranspiration. Although
catchment areas will not respond uniformly, the
availability of water to maintain base flows in rivers and
for irrigation is likely to become less certain, exacerbated
by competition from the public water supply and
industry. River-fed farm reservoirs will become vulnerable
to abstraction restrictions in dry winters, and in some
catchments increased irrigation may not be an option.
Changes in river flows and run-off patterns are also of
concern, both for maintaining base flows in dry periods
and for increased flood risk in wet spells. These changes
will also affect the seasonal water availability for hydropower. At the same time, the increased incidence and
severity of river and coastal flooding, combined with
inadequate commitment to river management, results in
Figure 2. Projected changes are for 2071-2100, compared to 1971-2000, based on the average of a multi-model ensemble forced with the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. Source: EEA, 2015.
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physical risk to livestock and loss of pasture.
Threats like salt-water intrusion and eutrophication
should also be considered. The first is exacerbated by
rising sea levels and the second is more frequent in
periods of low rainfall. Some of the gases that cause
climate change are also acidifying and eutrophying
pollutants.
(Eurostat), approximately 11.4 % of the European Union
territory is estimated to be affected by a moderate to
high level soil erosion (more than 5 tonnes per hectare
per year). About 0.4 % of EU land suffers from extreme
erosion (more than 50 tonnes per hectare per year).
Temperature increases can lead to higher biological
activity in soils, creating more mineralisation of the
organic matter in soil and thus more carbon losses.
While the magnitude of this effect could be reduced
by lack of water during summer droughts, generally
changes lead to a loss of soil fertility.
To sum up, higher temperatures and increasingly
extreme weather events contribute to the process of
desertification in Europe, which is likely to become
worse in future, particularly in the southern countries.
3. Pests and diseases
Figure 3. Figure 3 Projected change of global mean sea
level rise (21st century). Source: IPCC, 2013.
More stress on fresh water availability will likely result in
a greater need for irrigation and resource alternatives,
such as desalinisation, thus being more expensive for
society. It also pressures water users, including farmers,
to be extra careful with management practices that
affect both quantity and the quality of the water resources.
2. Soils
Our soils partially regulate the drainage, flow and storage
of water and solubles; any threats posed by climate
change can result in significant degradation in water
quality and capacity.
Soils are likely to be affected principally by drying out
(peat soils), waterlogging (clay soils in wet autumns and
winters), increased run-off and erosion in wet periods
(sandy and chalky soils), and summer flooding in river
valleys. Whilst droughts can remove or weaken protective
plant cover and leave soils more exposed to erosion,
very heavy rain storms directly wash away topsoil.
The Mediterranean region is particularly susceptible
because it experiences long dry periods followed by
spells of heavy rain. In northern Europe, water erosion is
less visible because, in general, there are higher levels
of vegetation cover. According to recent statistics
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Combined with global trade, climate change is likely
to increase the threat from pests and diseases, which
have important implications for the plant protection and
animal health sectors.
Forests are expected to suffer from increasing
populations of insect pests such as Spruce
Bark Beetle (Ips typographus) and Pine Sawfly
(Neodiprion sertifer). Climate stress is likely to
exacerbate existing disease in Pedunculate Oak
(Quercus robur) and Ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and
problems of shallow-rooted species like Beech
(Fagus sylvatica).
Bluetongue disease, which reached livestock
farms in the UK in 2007, is an early example of
what is expected to become a more common
problem in the future.
One of these concerns is how plant and animal
diseases will shift in range and intensity, including the
prospect of diseases previously unknown in individual
Member States becoming a threat. There is evidence of
Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis occurring at
higher altitudes and latitudes due to a higher incidence
of vectors such as Sheep Tick (Ixodes ricinus) and
Culicoides spp; while sub-tropical animal diseases are
also expected to migrate northwards as their insect
vectors move. At the same time, heat-induced stress
affects animal welfare, making them more susceptible
to disease.
Fewer hard frosts mean more pests will overwinter
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successfully, which is likely to require changes in pest
management regimes. Increases in winter root and stem
infections in oilseed rape and wheat are to be expected.
4. Plant growth and yields
Although an increase in CO2 on its own would enhance
plant growth as it can increase plant photosynthesis,
there is a general scientific expectation of a decline
in yields and quality through an inhibition of nitrogen
uptake due to changing climates. Droughts, and the
increasing incidence of extreme events, are seen as the
principal factors involved (Olesen et al. 2011).
Temperatures of 40° C were recorded in Madrid
in May 2015, causing severe damage to flowering
in wheat. High temperatures severely inhibit
meiosis and seed set is reduced from 57 grains
per ear to 23 by 24 hours at 30°C.
The Russian drought and heat wave of 2010 led
to the loss of 60 to 65 million tonnes or a third
of the grain crop, while in 2012 the wheat crop
was 39% below the five-year average. In France,
2011 was the hottest and driest spring since 1880
and there was an 8% decrease in wheat yield.
In the US drought of 2012, the most extensive since
the 1950s, 80% of the agricultural area was affected.
Northern parts of Europe could expect some positive
effects on agriculture through the expansion of suitable
areas for crop cultivation, longer crop seasons and
more frost-free periods, though with late frosts.
However, projections suggest increasingly negative
impacts on global agricultural production throughout this
century. Agricultural productivity is particularly threatened in semi-arid regions where rising temperatures can
make agriculture impossible or wholly unprofitable.
Consequently, shifts in the location of production of some
crops are expected. For instance, long term models
suggest that northern Europe will have a global role as a
source of grain, especially wheat, to help meet growing
global demand. This will be particularly so if production
in the Mediterranean and lower Danube is compromised.
Forest growth is projected to decrease in southern
Europe, including in the Iberian cork forests, and to
increase in northern Europe.
Across Europe, there is an expectation that the increased frequency and severity of extreme climatic events will cause more
production losses in Europe than will mean temperature rises.
To sum up: global temperature increases combined with
increased food demand, pose significant risks for global
food security, particularly as yield growths for major
food crops stagnate and (price) volatility increases.
If we do not tackle waste and improve yield growth, it
will be difficult to keep up with population growth and
resulting demand. Should such demand not be met,
additional land will need to be converted to agriculture,
which could further exacerbate climate pressures.
Figure 4. World population in 1950 and 2010 and projected
to 2050 and 2100. Source: UN, 2013.
5. Ecosystems and biodiversity
Changes in climate will cause the migration of some
new species within Europe, which are likely to extend
their range northward, but would also lead to losses for
any at the edge of their range. For each +1°C increase in
mean temperature, climate moves pole-wards by about
150/200 km or uphill by 100/150m (Feehan et al. 2009).
Since many species are unable to migrate at this speed,
this leads to huge ecosystem shifts.
For forestry, rising temperatures will result in movement
of the natural ranges of some tree species northwards
and to higher altitudes. These changes are already
happening faster than the trees’ ability to keep up without
assisted migration. Uneven-aged and mixed forests
are likely to be more resilient to disease, drought and
wind-throw.
Mediterranean, montane and wetland systems are
considered most at risk, with up to 50% loss of
biodiversity (IPCC. 2014).
Climate change has the potential, over a period of a few
decades, to undermine the conservation and sustainable
use of biodiversity. It is made worse by the increasing
risk of storms and fires.
An increase in the frequency and severity of storm force
winds will make woodland more vulnerable to wind
damage. In Germany, it is estimated that storm damage
may increase by 8% (A1B scenario) to 19% (B2 scenario) for the period 2060-2100, especially in mountainous
regions (IPCC. 2014).
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Fire risk is mainly associated with the Mediterranean,
but the area at risk is getting bigger and the risk period,
the fire season, is lengthening. Projections show the
spread of very high fire risk areas across much of west
France for 2041-2070, and to a lesser extent central
Europe and Scandinavia.
The ability of the land to supply ecosystem services will
undoubtedly vary with climate change. Because climate
changes in the future are difficult to predict the way
ecosystems respond is also uncertain.
Storm damage in France, Germany and Switzerland from Windstorm Lothar in December 1999
amounted to 300 million cubic metres of timber,
and from Erwin in January 2005 to 85 million cubic metres. Over one million cubic metres of timber has been lost from storm damage in the UK
on five occasions in the last 50 years, and in upland regions wind throw is the major determining
factor in rotation length as well as the principal
constraint on thinning.
Eight countries in central Europe suffered serious flooding in the summer of 2010, Poland being the worst affected, with 23,000 people having
to be evacuated and the economic costs totalling
around €2.5 billion. Recent droughts in Europe,
such as those in 2003 and 2008, have highlighted
the impact of desertification and the large economic costs it brings. The drought of 2003 in central and Western Europe alone caused estimated
economic damage of more than €12 billion.
Europe for tourism is projected to decline markedly during
the key summer months but improve in other seasons.
Central Europe is projected to increase its tourism appeal
throughout the year. Projected reductions in snow
cover will negatively affect the winter sports industry in
many regions.
Infrastructure and buildings can be damaged or rendered
unfit for use by any changing climatic condition or
extreme weather event.
Climate change will also affect supply and demand
patterns for food, energy and raw materials, which can
go in opposite directions in cases of different extreme
weather events.
Arctic
Temperature rise much larger than global average
Decrease in Arctic sea ice coverage
Decrease in Greenland ice sheet
Decrease in permafrost areas
Increasing risk of biodiversity loss
Intensified shipping and exploitation of oil and gas
resources
Figure 5. Projected increase of fire risk in Europe on A1B Emissions Scenario (2041-2070). Source: IPCC, 2014.
6. Rural businesses
Climate change will have a range of impacts on
businesses. While there may be cases when new business
opportunities can arise, most of the impacts are
expected to be disrupting and are expected to fall
disproportionately on SMEs.
The damage caused to economic activities and private
property, as well as communities and individuals, by
such weather-related disasters can be considerable.
Areas affected by weather related business disruption
include tourism, property and infrastructure damage
leading to increased costs of maintenance and materials
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and disruption of supply chains, both raising costs for
the producer and prices for the consumer.
In the short term, climate change can lead to jumps in
insurance premium prices. Over the longer term,
particularly in the most vulnerable sectors, climate
change could indirectly increase social disparities as
insurance premiums become unaffordable for a fringe
of the population. Disruptions to annual harvest and
livestock patterns could further lead to lower or irregular
harvests which could threaten the long-term viability of
rural economies.
The economic consequences for regions where tourism
is important may be substantial. The suitability of southern
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Coastal zones and regional seas
Sea-level rise
Increase in sea surface temperatures
Increase in ocean acidity
Northward expansion of fish and plankton species
Changes in phytoplankton communities
Increasing risk for fish stocks
Mediterranean region
Temperature rise larger than European average
Decrease in annual precipitation
Decrease in annual river flow
Increasing risk of biodiversity loss
Increasing risk of desertification
Increasing water demand for agriculture
Decrease in crop yields
Increasing risk of forest fire
Increase in mortality from heat waves
Expansion of habitats for southern disease vectors
Decrease in hydropower potential
Decrease in summer tourism and potential
increase in other seasons
Northern Europe
Temperature rise much larger than global average
Decrease in snow, lake and river ice cover
Increase in river flows
Nortward movement of species
Increase in crop yields
Decrease in energy demand for heating
Increase in hydropower potential
Increasing damage risk from winter storms
Increase in summer tourism
Mountain areas
Temperature rise larger than European average
Decrease in glacier extent and volume
Decrease in mountain permafrost areas
Upward shift of plant and animal species
High risk of species extinction in Alpine regions
Increasing risk of soil erosion
Decrease in ski tourism
Central and eastern Europe
Increase in warm temperature extremes
Decrease in summer precipitation
Increase in water temperature
Increasing risk of forest fire
Decrease in economic value of forests
North-western Europe
Increase in winter precipitation
Increase in river flow
Northward movement of species
Decrease in energy demand for heating
Increasing risk of river and coastal flooding
Figure 6. Key observed and projected impacts from
climate change for the main regions in Europe. Source:
EEA, 2012.
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III.
Land management
actions
As they become aware that climate change related risks
to rural areas are expected to increase, landowners
and land managers tend to scale up mitigation efforts,
mainly by reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions (1)
and conserving and increasing carbon stocks both
in soils and in biomass (2), which can be used as a
substitute material and for bioenergy (3) purposes.
As resource holders, land managers are in a key
position to manage water resources (4) and
to provide ecosystem services (5).
While they have to adapt their businesses (6)
to climate change pressures, farmers also have to
continue to do their job by providing sufficient quality
food, fuel and other land based marketed goods.
1. Reducing GHG emissions
More than other sectors, GHG emissions in agriculture
involve complex and wide-ranging biological
processes including, for example, enteric fermentation in
ruminants which is difficult to reduce.
Nonetheless, increasing agricultural productivity can
be achieved with reduced emissions in a sustainable
way. Thus, between 1990 and 2014, agricultural
production in the developed world was maintained
or even slightly increased, while the sector’s CO2 and
non-CO2 emissions were cut back. This trend must be
kept and strengthened.
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Overall reduction of external inputs, particularly
fertilisers the manufacturing of which is GHG-intensive;
Use of precision farming;
Crop rotation with N-fixating legumes. Legume crops
can advantageously replace imported soybeans in
animals’ diets;
Selection of breeds;
Improvements in the nutrition of livestock, as diet and
the level of food intake influence methane releases
from ruminants and manure;
Use of natural pasture for livestock rearing;
Improvements in manure storage (e.g. appropriate
installations for different types of animal manure and slurry)
and promotion of rapid coverage of manure storages;
Improvements in manure spreading by immediate
incorporation into soils and by a better accounting of
nitrogen content (both for lower ammonia emissions
and lower leaching of nitrogen to groundwater and
superficial water bodies);
The use of anaerobic digestion to treat farm and
other organic waste allowing the recovery of valuable
nutrients and the production of energy, notably
through small scale co-digestion biogas plants.
These technical and management options vary in costeffectiveness and practicality and would benefit from
substantial additional research and stronger advisory
services.
2. Managing carbon stocks
Agriculture and forestry fix carbon in large quantities
and are the main economic sectors that store it in vegetation and soils through photosynthesis.
Figure 7. Non-CO2 emissions and the volume of production
in the agriculture sector, 1990-2012. Source: FAO and EEA.
In fact, there are a number of farm management options
that have the potential to reduce GHGs, mainly in the
areas of fertiliser use (nitrates and ammonia) and the
livestock sector (methane). These include:
The mitigation potential in agriculture and forestry
depends on many factors such as soil type, climatic
conditions and land use. Nevertheless, a wide range of
farming and forestry practices and land use changes
help enhance carbon sequestration:
› Protection of organic matter in the soil and restoration
of carbon in degraded soils;
› Conservation agriculture (reduced or no tillage) which
avoids or reduces soil disturbance, while providing
significant energy savings;
› Maintenance of soil cover throughout the year, use
of catch crops, incorporation of organic material in a
sustainable manner (animal manure, sewage sludge,
cereal straw, compost), green cover of bare soil in
permanent cropland;
› Integrated farming;
› Diversified crop rotations, including leguminous crops;
› Changes in the farming calendar and shifts in the
distribution and spectrum of pests and diseases;
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Preservation of carbon hotspot areas, i.e. land with
high carbon stocks, such as grasslands, peatland and
wetlands is of particular importance as in such areas
potential carbon losses due to disturbance of the land
are the highest;
Afforestation, as trees hold considerably more carbon
than most agricultural crops on a more permanent
basis and over time significantly enhancing soil carbon;
Adjusting silvicultural systems and rotation lengths;
Decennial forest inventories recording standing
volumes according to species and age class.
It is estimated that in the EU soils contain 73-79
gigatonnes of organic carbon (equivalent to 275
Gt CO2). This represents more than fifty times the
annual GHG emissions from the EU1.
3. Replacing fossil fuels
There are further possibilities to maintain and sequester
carbon through the supply of biomass for the production
of bioenergy (renewable energy) and renewable materials
(biomaterials, plant-based chemistry), thus replacing
fossil fuels.
Bioenergy is a broad category for describing energy
produced from organic materials. It can be used to
produce heat, power, gas or transport fuels through a
variety of processes. It can also be more easily stored
and used to release energy as required, unlike some
other forms of energy. Currently, most bioenergy comes
from forest resources, accounting for two thirds of the
total renewable energies. It provides around 150 million
tonnes of CO2 equivalent of GHG savings, without
taking into account emissions caused by possible
indirect land use change related to biomass production.
In addition, there are other renewable energy services
that land managers are able to contribute, by investing
in hydro, wind and solar sources, which also contribute
towards reducing dependence on fossil energy sources.
The scope for solar power is demonstrated by
the Gemasolar plant, occupying 195 ha of the
Monclova estate at Fuentes de Andalucia, which
generates 19.9 MW electricity per annum, capable
of supplying 110 GW hours and saving an
estimated 30 Mt CO2 in emissions.
Carbon is also stored in timber and other forest
products, which can be an alternative to more energy
intense products such as brick and heavy concrete
(whose manufacture is estimated at 4,000 kg CO2 and
2,000 kg CO2 per cubic metre respectively). In fact,
Europe’s forests are producing an increasing amount
of renewable, reliable raw material for building, energy,
paper, furniture and other everyday uses. The amount
of timber in Europe’s forests is growing by more than
760 million cubic metres per year and two-thirds of this
increase is harvested at present.
For renewables, the main legislative issues
revolve around a revised Renewable Energy
package to set out the support framework for
bioenergy after 2020 as well as how to take account
of the impact of bioenergy on the environment,
land use and food production. It will include best
practices in renewable energy self-consumption
and support schemes; and a new policy for
sustainable biomass.
Measures to enhance the use of renewable energy and
materials include:
› Use of energy crops, forest biomass, bio-residues
and manure for the production of biofuels as well as
biogas for heating and electricity;
› Opting for higher generations biofuels;
› Sustainable management of the forests to increase forest
growth. Generally European forests follow the principles
of Sustainable Forest Management and are often part of
certification schemes such as FCS and PEFC;
› Considering other renewable energy options;
› Use of commodities from agriculture and forestry in
the production of industrial materials can help reduce
the need for petrochemical-based products, such as
polymers and fibres.
Figure 9. Contribution of renewable energy sources to gross inland energy consumption. Source: EEA, 2014.
Figure 8. Global potential for mitigation by activity (AFOLU). Source: IPCC 2014.
Figure 10. Global total material use by resource type, 1900 –2009. Source EEA, 2015
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4. Managing water resources
5. Managing ecosystems
As water availability becomes more challenging,
sustainable management of water resources becomes
more pressing. Landowners and land managers are
already making efforts to deal with the challenges and
to ease tensions between different users, tensions often
made worse by increasing costs of managing water and
tightening of abstraction licensing regimes.
Carbon stocks can be lost through land use change or
through exceptional climate events, such as storms and
fires, leading to rapid release of the stocked carbon to
the atmosphere as CO2.
Adaptation responses are based on the importance of
good water, soil and vegetation management, such as:
› Use of crop varieties better suited to new weather
conditions (e.g. more resilient to heat and drought);
› Adjusting sowing dates according to temperature and
rainfall patterns;
› Adapting crop rotation to make the best use of
available water;
› Installation and management of buffer strips and field
margins on arable land that reduce water run-off;
› Use of water efficient technology and efficient
scheduling;
› Investment in farm water storage, looking at
opportunities to retain water in on-farm reservoirs and
other constructed wetlands (consider collaborating
with neighbours and authorities);
› Use of more effective methods of irrigation, such as
drop irrigation systems;
› Consider sources alternative to groundwater, such as
rainwater harvesting and reuse of grey waters;
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Use of sustainable drainage systems to prevent runoff
and flooding, such as infiltration trenched, filter drains,
pounds and wetlands, grass buffers.
The West Reservoir built at Holkham in Norfolk,
England, cost £700,000 for a capacity of 62
million gallons in 2011-2012. By using the water
for vegetables and potatoes, the payback period
is expected to be eight years. Use for cereals
remains a future potential, but is not currently
justified in economic terms.
Ecosystems are an important carbon stock.
Currently, terrestrial and marine ecosystems
absorb roughly half the CO2 emissions human
activity generates. Terrestrial ecosystems store
about 2,100 Gt of carbon in living organisms, litter
and soil organic matter. Some 350-550Gt carbon
is currently sequestered in peat lands, which hold
between 20 and 25% of global soil carbon.
The management of ecosystems for resilience can
thus minimise climate change impacts, for instance,
by absorbing excess flood water or buffering against
coastal erosion or extreme weather events.
Land managers have a key role to play in maintaining
resilient ecosystems, for instance by:
› Improving the balance of species and age classes in
relation to site;
› Enhancing genetic change and therefore ability for
geographic migration;
› Including migration corridors and site management;
› Monitoring and controlling alien species.
› Conserving grassland;
› Maintaining, restoring or creating wetlands, ponds
and water meadows to help provide additional water
sources and benefit wildlife.
› Appling the principles of Sustainable Forest
Management, keeping in mind that uneven-aged
mixed forests appear to be more resistant to wind
throw and more resilient in the face of disease and
other stresses.
6. Adapting rural businesses and
infrastructure
Climate change will have an adverse effect on a range
of business ventures, and adaptation steps will be
advisable. These include:
› Increased support for on-farm and off-farm diversification under rural development plans;
› Development of insurance with respect to future
climate risks;
› Use of integrated greenhouse gas accounting
systems to enable a business to audit its own emissions
and sequestration at landscape scale.
Weather related:
‘Speculative’ planting to minimise yield variability,
infrastructure investments, shelter belts for protection
of crops and livestock and building maintenance e.g.
improving drainage capacity, avoiding livestock on
flood prone areas and collecting excess rainwater for
use in periods of drought;
› Improved building standards to provide greater
resilience in extreme events;
› Increasing use of weather stations.
›
Rural businesses will need to make the most of the
opportunities deriving from climate change. It will often
be a case of businesses mitigating the adverse impact
of climate change while also seeking to exploit any new
opportunities that arise.
On the Ore/Alde estuary on the Suffolk coast in
the UK, a partnership has been formed which
aims to maintain 44 km of river wall protecting
3,878 ha of land and 556 houses to the standard
of an event with a return period of one in 200
years. The partnership is currently seeking to
raise between £5M and £7M and has been
offered 39 development sites (mostly plots for
from one to five houses) by landowners to raise
the money.
Currently, half the UK defences are maintained
only to minimal level (National Audit Office).
Energy related:
› Savings in own energy use (equipment, buildings,
machinery for field operations);
› Diversification of energy supply;
› Better insulation of buildings.
Infrastructure related:
› Infrastructure measures, such as more efficient irrigation systems or water storage, and water transfer grids;
› Soft engineering solutions to limit coast erosion.
Flood related:
Soil management practices to increase the waterholding capacity of the soil and assist in flood control;
› Creation of inter-tidal habitats (coasts and estuaries)
and freshwater habitats (inland) to encourage habitat
re-creation for environmental benefit;
› Integrated soil and water practices in the uplands
to reduce soil and habitat degradation as well as
reducing and slowing runoff;
› Offshore reefs to stabilise shorelines and beaches;
› Tree and shelterbelts on contours to remove runoff
and increase infiltration.
›
Tourism related:
Diversified rural tourism activity;
Environmental land management to maintain and
enhance essential rural tourism;
› Visitor management plans, including transport links
and car parking schemes.
›
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IV.
Policy
considerations
Policies must help optimise countryside actions
to maintain food security while fully exploiting the
mitigation potential of different land uses. Policies
must be designed to support this general objective as
they drive the markets, which, in turn, drive patterns of
behaviour, be it that of farmers and landowners or
consumers and investors. Nonetheless, it is important
to recognise that land is a finite resource and policies
must not disadvantage the landowner or put at risk the
capacity of the land for food production or damage the
natural environment.
While taking into account both global (1) and local
approaches (2), climate change mitigation and adaptation
can be achieved by encouraging the provision of
environmental goods and services (3), by promoting
the Sustainable Intensification of food production and a
Sustainable Bioeconomy (4), by incentivising research
and innovation (5), and by enhancing the capacity of
landowners and managers (6) to adapt and mitigate
against climate change.
1. Consider a global approach
Maintaining a vibrant countryside and a resilient food
chain in the face of climate change will require complementary adaptations in other sectors – transport, built
environment and energy systems among others – and
should encourage greater integration and cooperation.
Some climate change mitigation measures may have
trade-offs, which need to be managed by appropriately
designing mitigation measures, and by assessing their
local suitability. For example, under certain conditions,
afforestation of high nature value land can damage
biodiversity, and zero tillage regimes can result in
increased herbicide use. The impacts on soil carbon
content should be fully considered if, for example, crop
and wood residues are massively used to generate
power instead of integrating them in the soil.
Moreover, certain policies can lead to a displacement of
emissions, including to third countries. The contribution of
agriculture to mitigation should be considered not only in
terms of the reduction of GHG emissions in the EU, but also
within the wider perspective of global GHG emissions. In
some cases, there is a risk of displacing food production,
e.g. to countries outside the EU, leading to emissions
there from transport, the production itself and from land
use change, such as deforestation. For instance, bioenergy has been a controversial issue since it has potential
consequences in terms of land use giving rise to potential
conflicts between food production and energy.
2. Consider a local approach
Because of the different trade-offs and large regional
differences in mitigation and adaptation potential of
different options, it is necessary to tailor policy measures
to site and farming-specific conditions.
Differences are influenced by a number of factors such as
farm characteristics (size, location, yields, level of inputs),
climatic and environmental conditions (land and soil characteristics, water availability), the degree to which mitigation
measures compete with traditional agricultural practices
and profitability (e.g., extensive grazing systems or fertilization), and the incentives in place such as financial support.
The varied mix of land cover and use types (landscape
composition), their spatial arrangement (landscape
structure) implies the need for an integrated landscape
management system that encompasses the implications and solutions mentioned in previous chapters.
Landowners and land managers must be encouraged
to seek complementary solutions to common problems, including the ones arising from climate change1.
3. Promote the provision of
environmental goods and services
Landowners and land managers are in the best position
to mitigate against climate change, not only through
contributing to sequestration of carbon in soils and
biomass but also by providing habitats, biodiversity and
other environmental benefits that society wants, either
because they are the only ones who can do this or
because they can do it at lowest cost.
Emissions are a real cost, however. There is no
credit / debit system in place to account for emissions
in most land-based sectors. Also, at present, important
resources such as a clean atmosphere, biodiversity and
the aesthetic beauty of Europe’s landscapes are undervalued or not valued at all, and thus subject to market
failure. The aim should be to assign values so these
public goods are fully taken into account.
1
The relationship between climate change and land is complex. The HERCULES project develops tools to deal with such
complexity through landscape approaches. Read more at http://www.hercules-landscapes.eu
2
The RISE’s study on Public Goods focuses on the nature and scale of public goods and services which land managers
(farmers and foresters) currently provide. Read more here:
http://www.risefoundation.eu/images/pdf/report_public_goods_uk_%28full_report%29.pdf
21
Placing a value on environmental goods and services2, like
carbon, is important to ensure incentives are in place to
tackle challenges such as climate change. There is a need
to explore the potential for market-based solutions such as
tax credits, incentives and direct payment for ecosystem
services, particularly as conservation management to
tackle climate change and other environmental problems
is often longer-term and rewarding when done by voluntary
initiatives and activities from private land managers.
Examples are the agri-environment and forest environment schemes, which represent an important part of
EU rural policy and that pay land managers to deliver
public environmental benefits. Other examples, while
still not perfect, are the systems of habitat banking and
biodiversity offsetting, whereby developers are required
to provide offsets to replace the loss of biodiversity as a
condition of obtaining planning permission.
food, fibre and other bio-based products, including
agro-materials, bioplastics and bio-chemicals, with
fewer inputs, reduced environmental impact and
reduced greenhouse gas emissions.
Intensifying the sustainable production of renewable
resources from land, fisheries and aquaculture
environments and their conversion into food, feed, fibre
bio-based products and bio-energy as well as related
public goods is contributing to the bio-economy.
Promoting a bio-economy means relying more heavily
on renewable biological resources, thus contributing to
a more resilient rural economy which is vital if we are to
deal with future uncertainties, such as climate change.
5. Promote innovation
The mitigation potential linked to further productivity
increases in the EU is likely to be limited so the declining
trend in agriculture emissions cannot be expected to
continue without further research on ways to achieve
optimal land use.
4. Promote a sustainable
bioeconomy
Globally, climate impacts on agriculture will take place
against a backdrop of increasing global demand for
food, farmers will be asked to feed nine billion people by
2050 with fewer resources, resulting in more land coming
into production and expectations of higher prices for
inputs, such as energy and fertiliser. The challenges of
producing more with less are not to be understated.
A way of using resources more efficiently is by moving
towards a circular economy rather than a traditional
linear economy; by keeping resources in use for as long
as possible and recovering them whenever possible3.
For instance, bio-waste, including food waste, is estimated
at up to 138 million tons per year in the EU (of which up
to 40% goes to land-fill) and has high potential added
value as a feedstock for other productive processes.
4
The concept of sustainable intensification must be
promoted as it integrates the idea of increasing food
production while optimising the sector’s contribution to
greenhouse gas mitigation and sequestration.
We must move towards sustainable primary production and processing systems that can produce more
Environmentally friendly production practices require a
better understanding of the long-term effects of agriculture
and forestry on the environment. Agriculture and
forestry have become know-how and capital intensive
and require more research and development and more
innovative capital investment.
Further improvements in productivity are possible,
based on continuous research in plant and animal
varieties (namely drought-resistant and disease
resistant varieties), progress in farming techniques, and
the development of new fertilizers. The bioenergy sector
is still developing and there is a need for continuous
research on this front, including the storage of energy.
Apart from the transfer of knowledge and best practice,
European policies should facilitate the gathering, analysis
and use of data. Rural areas must be part of the digital
era, making the most of smartphones, drones or
satellite sensors.
There is also a need to streamline the approval,
authorisation and commercialisation of biotechnologies.
Such technology often remains too costly and its broad
accessibility is still an issue that needs to be addressed.
There are huge potential upsides for European society
in nutrition, in productivity and in biodiversity, even if the
climate worsens.
6. Capacity building
Policies must be followed by proper incentives.
For instance, enabling landowners to enter on carbon
markets would be an important step. Currently, most
of the “land sector” is not included in international
efforts in this area but its contribution should not be
disregarded.
The investment costs for adaptation and mitigation
often fall on landowners and land managers disproportionally or are too high for them to act on their own, for
instance when dealing with investments in water infrastructure systems. Such systems may be important not
only for farmers planning to use irrigation technologies,
but also because of their effects on other parts of the
economy and local communities through, for example,
providing extra benefits such as additional sources of
drinking water and recreational areas.
CAP policy instruments post 2014
Pillar 1 greening measures:
› Require crop diversification on larger tillage farms
› Require Ecological Focus Areas on larger
tillage farms
› Maintain permanent pasture area at national level
› Cross compliance GAEC 4-6 address soil
carbon maintenance
Pillar 2:
› Three cross-cutting objectives: Innovation,
Environment, climate change
› Six priorities, including knowledge transfer
and innovation, enhancing ecosystems and
resource efficiency.
The CAP remains a major tool, but as the challenges
increase and the budgets decrease, alternative ways of
supporting rural businesses should be considered.
While adaptation to gradual change is manageable,
adaptation to unpredictable catastrophic events is
much more difficult.
Providing accurate and detailed information allows
private agents to make timely, well informed and
efficient adaptation decisions. Public and semi-public
research and development programmes should provide
tools for farmers to assess and manage their risks.
For instance weather forecasting or early warning
systems would allow farmers to undertake early action
to minimise the negative effects of extreme events.
Training, education and extension services also have
the potential to increase the resilience of rural areas to
future climate change, particularly as GHG emissions
are invisible and climate change is global and often
perceived as far-away and, for many, difficult to
comprehend.
3
The RISE’s project on Nutrient recovery and reuse reviews the issues, opportunities, actions and policies related to nutrient
use and nutrient recovery and reuse in European Agriculture.
Read it here: http://www.risefoundation.eu/projects/nutrient-recycling-and-recovery
4
Sustainable Intensification is defined as a simultaneous improvement in productivity and environmental management of
agricultural land in the RISE’s report with the same name. The report highlighted the importance of devising measurement
tools for environmental farming performance and encouraging farmers and private actors to implement changes in practices
in addition to a better enforcement of existing environmental regulations.
Read more here: http://www.risefoundation.eu/images/pdf/si%202014_%20full%20report.pdf
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V.
Conclusions
Conclusions
1. Climate change is a very serious challenge for society and impacts on rural areas and land-based sectors.
2. European agriculture must continue to contribute to food security while improving its overall environmental
performance, including reducing its impact on the climate.
3. The development of EU agriculture over past decades has been characterised by a steady increase in productivity,
in both crop and animal production, while the EU agricultural GHG emissions have declined. However, without
additional efforts, this trend is not likely to continue.
4. There is unused potential for cost-effective climate mitigation activities in EU agriculture and forestry. Policies
will need to encourage and facilitate the changes necessary for a more efficient use of natural resources to
achieve better agricultural and environmental outputs. Concepts such as Sustainable Intensification and a more
encouraging attitude to innovation would certainly contribute to these goals.
5. Landowners must retain the flexibility to implement climate adaptation and mitigation strategies to address
changing circumstances. Although the optimal land use mix for any given area will depend on local conditions,
its success is also dependent on information, education, advice and training.
6. Landowners and land managers are already undertaking climate adaptation work and often do so without
government intervention. However, when such work provides both private and public benefits, the public sector
need to play to better align privately profitable actions with socially desirable outcomes.
7. The viability of farms is a necessary basis for climate-friendly farming practices to become more widespread.
There is also a need to improve awareness and technical knowledge among landowners and managers on
climate change mitigation so that, in their daily decisions, they can build such knowledge into their economic
decision making.
25
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For more information on the paper “Climate Change and the Rural Economy” contact:
European Landowners’ Organization - ELO
Rue de Trèves 67; B - 1040 Brussels
T: + 32 (0) 2 234 30 00
F: + 32 (0) 2 234 30 09
E: [email protected]
www.elo.org
The Paris Protocol: A blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020 (EU, 2015)
www.facebook.com/europeanlandowners
UKCP09: The climate of the United Kingdom and recent trends (UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2009)
www.twitter.com/EULandownersOrg
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Viner, David, Michael Sayer, Maria Calvo Uyarra and Nikki Hodgson, Climate Change and the European Countryside
(University of East Anglia, Country Land and Business Association, and European Landowners’ Organisation, 2006).
© European Landowners’ Organization
Registered in Belgium No. 458036374 at the above address.
All rights reserved. Edition November 2015
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