ULAN COAL MINES LTD CONTINUED OPERATIONS – GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT July 2009 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 ULAN COAL MINES LTD CONTINUED OPERATIONS - GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT JULY 2009 prepared by: Mackie Environmental Research 193 Plateau Rd., Bilgola for: Umwelt (Australia) Pty Limited Toronto on behalf of: Ulan Coal Mines Limited Ulan Mackie Environmental Research 1 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 ABSTRACT Ulan Coal Mines Limited (UCML) is seeking approval to continue mining operations by extending the West Pit open cut to the west, continuing the underground No.3 operations northward, and by commencing another underground mine now identified as Ulan West. Proposed mining would continue to exploit coal reserves in the Ulan seam and would provide for the extraction of up to 20 million tonnes per annum of coal over a period of about 21 years. All open cut and underground mining would continue to be undertaken at depths below the regional water table which will result in further depressurisation of the coal seam and strata above and below the seam. Depressurisation above the seam will be accelerated through caving and subsidence (for underground operations). Such depressurisation will lead to changed groundwater flow directions within the Permian coal measures and the overlying Triassic and younger strata. Significant recent studies underpin a reasonably well defined hydrogeologic system that is extensively monitored. These studies have been assimilated into the current environmental assessments in order to predict the magnitude and extent of groundwater related impacts likely to arise from the proposed mining operations. They have included hydrogeological map preparation, laboratory based hydraulic properties measurements of different strata, groundwater quality assessments as part of routine monitoring, confirmation-census of existing private bores and wells, development of a regional groundwater model, and predictive modelling of future mining and post mining scenarios. Results support the following. The geological strata of interest are (from top down) Jurassic sandstones and siltstones which are mostly unsaturated within the proposed mining areas, Triassic sandstones which are variably saturated, and Permian coal measures comprising sandstones, siltstones, shales and coal seams which remain saturated within the proposed mining areas but have been largely depressurised in mined out areas. Water tables and groundwater pressures in the saturated strata are sustained by rainfall infiltration to the regolith and to underlying hard rock layers with estimates of recharge to deep hard rock strata varying from close to zero, to no more than about 2% of annual rainfall. The shallow regolith-weathered bedrock zone is considered to act as a temporary water store with rainfall recharge percolating downwards at a reducing rate as increasing confinement in hard rock strata impedes flow. Shallow vertical flow while not measured, is likely to be influenced by the connectivity of joints and fractures. A regional composite water table has been prepared from the available piezometric data for both pre-mining conditions (taken as prior to 1986) and current conditions in 2009. The pre-mining water table generally reflects a regime where mounding occurs beneath topographically high areas, and lower groundwater elevations prevail adjacent to the major drainage systems. The Talbragar and Goulburn rivers act as regional drainage sinks. Formation hydraulic properties data for the various strata have been gathered from historical testing within and around the project area. Core inspections and packer testing have been undertaken to assess the presence of fractures and joints, and to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the Ulan seam and overburden in the Permian, Triassic and Jurassic strata. Findings demonstrate the Ulan seam exhibits a hydraulic conductivity that is several orders of magnitude higher than Permian interburden strata and as a result, the seam preferentially depressurises the system, as observed in historical piezometric monitoring data. Core tests support very low conductivities for Permian non-coal strata which will not easily drain. The overlying Triassic sandstones are much more conductive and porous. They are regarded as a significant regional groundwater store by virtue of their uniformity and favourable properties. The Jurassic rocks are more variable with generally reduced hydraulic conductivities when compared to the underlying Triassic strata. Shallow alluvial deposits along the major drainages tend to be mixed assemblages of clayey silts and sands with occasional coarser gravel layers. They seem to exhibit quite variable hydraulic properties. Mackie Environmental Research 2 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Groundwater sampling over a long period of time suggests water qualities are consistent with the observed mineralogies. Permian strata are characterised by an ionic species distribution where Na>Mg,Ca and HCO3,Cl >>SO4, an average EC value of 1151 uS/cm and a pH average of about 9.5. Triassic strata are characterised by Na>Mg,Ca and Cl,HCO3 >>SO4, EC values averaging 471 uS/cm and a pH average of about 7.5. A recent bore census has indicated that shallower groundwaters in the Triassic sandstones may be useful for stock and domestic water supply. Recent installation of a number of pore pressure monitoring bores in both undisturbed areas and areas close to or above subsided longwall panels, has provided further insight to the extent of strata depressurisation attributed to mining operations. Pore pressure data for piezometers in undisturbed areas supports the conceptual hydraulic conductivity distribution - high conductivity in the Ulan seam, low conductivity and storage in the Permian and deeper strata, and high conductivity and storage in Triassic strata. Pore pressures in the subsidence zone above extracted panels, are observed to reduce rapidly in advance of mining, and following undermining. At two monitoring sites, pressures have apparently reduced to zero throughout the entire profile while at a third site they are declining steadily. These pore pressure reductions (in the subsidence zone) are consistent with connected and drainable cracking from the Ulan seam upwards through the entire succession of saturated strata, probably to surface. This response is consistent with geotechnical predictions for subsidence related cracking. Evaluation of the likely impacts of future mining on regional groundwater systems has been assessed using computer based modelling techniques. A regional groundwater model comprising 11 layers has been developed using a finite difference based computer code. The model has been calibrated using extensive groundwater monitoring data and historical groundwater seepage estimates to underground operations. It has been used to generate a pre-mining estimate of the regional water table and to determine probable groundwater flow pathlines within the various strata. Results support a pre-mining flow system that is recharged by rainfall and sustains a groundwater mounding in subcrop areas to the south and southwest of mining operations. From here, flow path directions are predicted to be north-easterly before turning easterly down the Goulburn River catchment. Some flow paths also turn to the northwest down the Talbragar River catchment. Interestingly, the groundwater divide between easterly and westerly groundwater flows, lies some 4 to 5 km west of the Great Divide. Simulation of open cut and underground mining operations from 1986 to 2008 supports the preferential depressurisation of the Ulan seam and complete dewatering of strata overlying extracted panels. This dewatering has created a groundwater sink which has attracted flow from surrounding strata and modified the pre-mining flow path directions. Model predicted groundwater seepage rates agree with anecdotal estimates for early years of mining, and with measured estimates for recent years of mining. The model generates an average rate of seepage of 8.5ML/day for early 2008 consistent with calculated estimates from detailed site water balance studies. Simulation of future mining to 2029-2030 supports sustained depressurisation of the Ulan seam to distances of 10 to 20 km beyond the mine panel footprint. Permian interburden is depressurised to distances of 5 to 15 km while Triassic strata are depressurised to distances of 3 to 5 km as defined by the 2 m drawdown contours. All strata are predicted to be dewatered within the subsidence zone. The total cumulative groundwater seepage to mine workings from all underground operations is predicted to rise from a current rate of about 9.2 ML/day to approximately 24.0 ML/day in 2018 when operations in Underground No.3 are near their northern extremity and the greatest pressure heads in the groundwater system, prevail. Thereafter, the seepage rate is predicted to decline to a rate of about 8 ML/day at the end of mining in 2029-2030 and to decline in an exponential manner thereafter. Occasional short term ‘nuisance’ flows of possibly up to 1.0 ML/day could be generated during mining if as yet unidentified water bearing structures like faults, shears or volcanic plugs and sills are intercepted. Typically, such structures if intercepted in the Permian strata, offer relatively low storage that would be expected to deplete over a number of months. Longer periods are likely if the structures occur in the Triassic strata. Mackie Environmental Research 3 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The reduction in aquifer pressures caused by Underground No.3 and Ulan West operations will have an impact on groundwater baseflows to the catchments. At the close of mining it is predicted that losses to the Goulburn River catchment arising from the proposed mining, may be of the order of 0.11 ML/day while losses to the Talbragar River catchment may be of the order of 0.2 ML/day. Cumulative impacts arising from proposed underground mining operations at Moolarben Coal Underground No.4, are likely to dewater Permian and Triassic strata within the subsidence zone if a cracking and draining regime similar to UCML experience, develops above extracted longwall panels. This may lead to more widespread depletion of the water table in and adjacent to the impacted area(s) surrounding the Moolarben project. There are a number of water supply bores that are likely to be impacted by continued mining. Most are believed to draw groundwater from the Triassic or younger strata including alluvium along the Talbragar River. There are 5 privately owned bores (excluding UCML bores) located within the 5 m drawdown contour in Triassic strata at the end of mining. Of these 5 bores, only one is in use, the remaining bores are either inoperable (3 bores) or cannot be located (1 bore). The 5 m head loss contour is considered to be an important contour insofar as bores are likely to succumb to some loss of yield if drawdowns of this magnitude occur. UCML policy in relation to bore water supplies supports replacement of loss of yield through new bore construction. The Drip is recognised as an important natural feature which hosts localised groundwater dependent ecosystems. It is sustained by surficial and relatively shallow groundwater storage which is governed mostly by short term rainfall events that surcharge the regolith, weathered rock and vertical joints in the area. Rainfall recharge and downwards percolation is intercepted at horizontal bedding planes which then transmit the groundwater to the unconfined rock faces along the Goulburn River gorge, where it emanates as seeps and drips. During dry periods some seeps may cease to flow. Seepage that migrates past this shallow perched system, sustains the deeper water table and from numerical modelling, is calculated to be less than 5 mm/year or less than 1% of annual average rainfall. Depressurisation of Triassic strata in the area of the Drip has already occurred as a result of historical mining operations at UCML and no impacts have been observed to date. No observable impacts are likely as a result of future UCML operations which are moving northward and westward away from the Drip. There are no other identified groundwater dependent eco-systems within the area that are likely to be impacted by loss of formation groundwater pressures. Simulation of the recovery of groundwater levels indicates more than 200 years will pass before groundwater levels and pressures within the depressurised strata, substantially rebound. Groundwater quality within the coal measures both during and post mining, is expected to exhibit a speciated signature (cations and anions) consistent with the range of water qualities currently encountered in exploration holes and observation piezometers - a sodium-magnesium bicarbonatechloride water. Triassic strata water quality is unlikely to change with time. The extended open cut area to the west of the existing open cuts, will be filled with waste rock (spoils) in a manner consistent with historical operations. Reshaping will be undertaken and there will be no long term void on completion of mining. Rainfall will recharge the spoils and the water table within the spoils will recover to an equilibrated level (after more than 200 years) which will be connected to the existing open cut pits. The water quality is expected to be Na>>Mg>Ca and HCO3>Cl>>SO4 with total dissolved solids greater than 1000 mg/L and pH between 7.0 and 8.0. Mackie Environmental Research 4 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Table of Contents ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................................2 1. 1.1 2. 2.1 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................8 HISTORICAL AND RECENT STUDIES OF RELEVANCE .......................................................................9 REGIONAL SETTING ...............................................................................................................10 CLIMATE .....................................................................................................................................10 DRAINAGE, RUNOFF AND RAINFALL RECHARGE ..........................................................................11 Base flow to the Goulburn and Talbragar Rivers ......................................................................11 River water quality .....................................................................................................................12 GEOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................12 WIRELINE GEOPHYSICAL LOGS....................................................................................................14 BEDDING AND STRUCTURAL FEATURES .......................................................................................15 REGIONAL STRESS FIELD AND JOINTING ......................................................................................15 GROUNDWATER HYDROLOGY............................................................................................16 3.1 3.2 3.2.1 3.3 3.3.1 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 3.4.4 EXISTING LICENSED BORES AND WELLS IN THE REGION ..............................................................16 GROUNDWATER OCCURRENCE IN UNCONSOLIDATED SEDIMENTS ...............................................16 Hydraulic properties of alluvium ...............................................................................................17 GROUNDWATER OCCURRENCE IN HARD ROCK STRATA ...............................................................17 Hydraulic properties of hard rock strata ...................................................................................18 GROUNDWATER MONITORING .....................................................................................................19 Piezometric surfaces and groundwater flows.............................................................................20 Groundwater Quality .................................................................................................................20 Goaf Water Quality ....................................................................................................................21 Historical mine water influx.......................................................................................................22 4.0 COMPUTER SIMULATION OF PROPOSED MINING....................................................23 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 GROUNDWATER MODEL PROPERTIES AND INITIAL CONDITIONS ..................................................24 MODEL CALIBRATION TO FIELD CONDITIONS ..............................................................................24 FUTURE MINING INDUCED DEPRESSURISATION OF ROCK STRATA ................................................25 PREDICTED GROUNDWATER SEEPAGE TO UNDERGROUND OPERATIONS ......................................26 RECOVERY OF AQUIFER PRESSURES POST MINING .......................................................................26 BASEFLOW LOSSES TO REGIONAL RIVERS AND CREEKS ...............................................................27 5. 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS........................................................................27 REDUCTION IN REGIONAL HARD ROCK PRESSURES AND BASEFLOW IMPACTS ..............................27 LOSS OF GROUNDWATER YIELD AT EXISTING BORE LOCATIONS ..................................................28 CHANGE IN GROUNDWATER QUALITY .........................................................................................29 IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER DEPENDENT ECOSYSTEMS ..............................................................29 6. DWE LICENSING REQUIREMENTS .....................................................................................29 7. GROUND WATER MONITORING.........................................................................................30 8. IMPACTS VERIFICATION CRITERIA..................................................................................30 8.1 IMPACT MITIGATION MEASURES ..................................................................................................32 REFERENCES: .....................................................................................................................................32 APPENDIX A: BASEFLOW ANALYSES ......................................................................................35 APPENDIX B: DWE REGISTERED BORES AND WELLS .........................................................1 APPENDIX C: STRATA HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES.................................................................1 C1. C2. C3. PACKER INJECTION TEST ANALYSES ..............................................................................................1 LABORATORY CORE TESTS ............................................................................................................1 ROCK CORE MECHANICAL PROPERTIES..........................................................................................7 Mackie Environmental Research 5 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 APPENDIX D: GROUNDWATER MONITORING........................................................................1 APPENDIX E: REGIONAL GROUNDWATER MODEL..............................................................1 E1 CONCEPTUALISATION .......................................................................................................................1 E2 NUMERICAL MODEL CODE.................................................................................................................1 E3. MODEL LAYER GEOMETRY ............................................................................................................2 E4. MODEL HYDRAULIC PROPERTIES ...................................................................................................2 E5. MODEL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS ...................................................................................................4 E5.1 Treatment of the subsidence zone.................................................................................................5 E6. MODEL CALIBRATION – STEADY STATE ........................................................................................6 E7. MODEL CALIBRATION – TRANSIENT STATE ...................................................................................8 E8. SIMULATION OF FUTURE MINING ...................................................................................................9 E9. RECOVERY OF AQUIFER PRESSURES POST MINING .......................................................................11 E10. SIMULATION OF CUMULATIVE IMPACTS OF MINING (MOOLARBEN UG4) ....................................12 E11. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ...............................................................................................................12 E12. FACTORS AFFECTING ACCURACY OF NUMERICAL MODEL............................................................12 List of Figures in Main Text Figure 1: Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Figure 6: Figure 7: Figure 8: Figure 9: Figure 10: Figure 11: Figure 12: Figure 13: Figure 14 Figure 15 Figure 16 Figure 17 Figure 18 Figure 19 Figure 20 Figure 21 Figure 22 Figure 23 Figure 24 Regional features and mine plans Published coalfield geology Typical stratigraphy – Ulan West Comparison of natural gamma logs from different locations Monitoring piezometers and representative wireline logged holes Ulan seam floor and regional faults Private bore locations from DWE database and bore census DDH242 wireline logs and permeability tests DDH242 Hydraulic conductivity versus natural gamma count DDH242 effective porosity versus hydraulic conductivity Triassic sandstone piezometric surface - 2008 Ulan seam piezometric surface - 2008 Trilinear plot of major ionic species Submergence of Jurassic strata floor Submergence of Triassic strata floor Submergence of Ulan seam floor Predicted piezometric heads and drawdowns in Triassic strata – 2008 Predicted piezometric heads and drawdowns in Ulan seam – 2008 Predicted piezometric heads and drawdowns in Triassic strata – end of 2029 Predicted piezometric heads and drawdowns in Ulan seam – end of 2029 Summary of predicted groundwater seepage rates Predicted baseflow trends in river catchments Predicted long term recovered piezometric heads and drawdowns – Triassic Locations of bores with respect to water table drawdown at the end of mining Mackie Environmental Research 6 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 List of Figures in Appendices Figure A1: Figure A2: Figure B1 Figure C1: Figure C2: Figure C3: Figure D1: Figure D2: Figure E1: Figure E2: Figure E3: Figure E4: Figure E5: Figure E6: Figure E7: Figure E8: Figure E9: Figure E10: Figure E11: Figure E12: Figure E13: Figure E14: Figure E15: Figure E16: Figure E17: Figure E19: Figure E20: Figure E21: Calculated baseflows from Goulburn River flow records Flow exceedance probability plots Locations of registered bores and wells Hydraulic conductivity test locations Packer test histograms Core test histograms Groundwater monitoring bore locations Water level monitoring plots Model layers - perspectives Groundwater model mesh and drainage network Recharge areas and steady state calibration control points Subsidence regime Calculated versus observed heads – steady state Steady state pre mining piezometric surface – Triassic aquifer Steady state pre mining piezometric surface – Ulan seam Model predicted piezometric surfaces at January 2009 Model predicted piezometric drawdowns at January 2009 Section C100 and Section C166 pore pressures – 1986, 2008 Mine plan and panel identification Model predicted piezometric surfaces at January 2022 Model predicted piezometric drawdowns at January 2022 Model predicted piezometric surfaces at January 2029 Model predicted piezometric drawdowns at January 2029 Section C166 pore pressures – 2022, 2029 Summary of predicted groundwater seepage rates Model predicted recovery in Triassic and Ulan seam: 100 and 200 years Model predicted piezometric surfaces at January 2029 – Moolarben UG4 inc. Model predicted piezometric drawdowns at January 2029 – Moolarben UG4 inc. Acknowledgement: Mackie Environmental Research acknowledges the contributions to this report provided by Coffey Geotechnics on behalf of Ulan Coal Mines Limited. A considerable volume of information has been drawn directly from Coffey Geotechnics reports. Mackie Environmental Research 7 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 1. INTRODUCTION Ulan Coal Mines Limited (UCML) is seeking approval to extend mining in areas to the north and west of current operations. The proposal provides for the continued mining of coal at a rate of up to 20 Million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) over a period of approximately 21 years. Mining will continue as both open cut and underground longwalls in the Ulan seam at depths ranging from 30 m in the open cut area, to more than 300 m in the underground area. Longwall panels are planned to be approximately 400 m wide and will be extracted over panel lengths ranging from less than 1.5 km to a maximum length of about 7 km. Coal extraction will continue to depressurise groundwater contained within the coal seam and in surrounding Permian strata. In underground areas, subsidence and associated cracking above caved (goaf) areas will induce depressurisation above the seam which in turn, will induce more widespread depressurisation extending through undisturbed overburden. Such depressurisation is likely to induce leakage from groundwater resources in overlying strata including Triassic sandstones and to a lesser degree alluvial materials associated with the regional river systems. Mackie Environmental Research Pty. Ltd. (MER) was commissioned by Umwelt Australia Ltd. on behalf of UCML in 2008 to consolidate existing groundwater studies undertaken by various consultants, in order to assess the likely impacts of mining on groundwater systems and to provide advice in respect of future measurement and monitoring of aquifer conditions. The groundwater assessment was designed to comply with the Department of Planning (DoP) Director-General’s Requirements for the project, being: • a description of the existing environment, • an assessment of the potential impacts of all stages of the project including any cumulative impacts associated with concurrent existing or approved mining activity in the region, taking into consideration any relevant policies, guidelines, plans and statutory provisions; • a description of the measures that would be implemented to avoid, minimise, mitigate and/or offset the potential impacts, including detailed contingency plans for managing any significant risk to the environment. In this context, key areas of study relating to groundwater have been broadly identified as follows: a description of the different aquifer systems including extent, inter-relationships and connectivity to surface water systems and any groundwater dependent eco systems; a description of the interaction between hard rock aquifer systems and surface drainage systems with a focus on potential loss of baseflows to the Goulburn and Talbragar River catchments; an assessment of the regional groundwater systems, flow directions, rates of flow and hydrochemical signatures of the groundwaters; details of proposed open cut and underground mining and any water supply works connected with the mining process that may intercept the aquifer systems; details of the extent of predicted impacts of mining on identified aquifer systems including cumulative impacts from other approved mining operations; assessment of the magnitude of impacts on existing groundwater users likely to be affected by the proposed (continuing) development; details of any long term impacts on the groundwater regime. The contained report provides a summary of information generated and reported in previous studies. It also includes various computer based simulations undertaken by MER to assess the likely impacts arising from proposed mining operations. Mackie Environmental Research 8 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 1.1 Historical and recent studies of relevance Mining of coal at UCML has been conducted since the early 1920’s. The modern open cut and underground mining operations commenced in 1982 and 1986 respectively and have been ongoing and continuous ever since. Open Cut mining ceased in 2008 due to approved coal reserves being exhausted. Historically mined areas, existing operations and proposed mining operations to 2029 together with the approved underground mine plan at the nearby Moolarben Coal Mines situated to the east and southeast of UCML operations, are indicated on Figure 1. Significant studies undertaken by UCML relating to groundwater and groundwater-surface water interactions have mostly been conducted in recent times. With the exception of a study addressing the Goulburn River diversion, they focus almost exclusively on the underground operations. This apparent bias is attributed largely to the greater submergence of longwall mining beneath the regional water table when compared to open cut operations, and the water management issues arising therefrom. Significant groundwater assessments have been conducted in five previous studies. Coffey Geotechnical (Coffey, 2008b) provides a useful summary of those studies which are represented as follows: • In 1991, Coffey Partners International (Coffey, 1991) assessed inflows to the East Pit open cut, the underground No. 3 longwall operation (current at the time) situated north of the open cut, and the proposed underground No.4 located to the east of the Goulburn River and now known as Moolarben underground No. 4. The results of the assessment suggested groundwater inflows to the underground No. 3 (UG3) workings could be governed by the presence of a clay layer beneath the Ulan seam which served to isolate the seam from the underlying Marrangaroo Conglomerate. Groundwater inflows at the time of the assessment were reported to be around 3 ML/day and the assessment concluded that future underground mine inflows would increase to 7 ML/day assuming no hydraulic connection between the Ulan Seam and the conglomerate, or up to 11.5 ML/day if connection was established. • In 1998, the National Centre for Groundwater Management (NCGM, 1998) conducted an assessment of groundwater inflows to the underground No. 4 operations using computer based numerical model simulations. The study was in support of an Environmental Impact Statement for the northern part of the current mine lease, then known as Mining Lease Application (MLA) 80. The results of that assessment indicated groundwater inflows increasing from around 4 ML/day in 1998 to about 7 ML/day in 2005, to around 11 ML/day in 2017. • In 2005, Coffey Geosciences conducted an assessment of groundwater inflows to the current underground operations (UG3) using numerical simulation techniques. The results of that study (Coffey 2005a) were similar to those of NCGM (1998). • In 2006 Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB, 2006) conducted an assessment of the impacts of longwall mining on regional groundwater systems, and future groundwater inflows to UG3 and proposed Ulan West (UW) operations. The regional stratigraphy and aquifer systems were updated from previous studies based on more recent exploration drill hole data. Impacts were again assessed using numerical simulation techniques and a maximum predicted groundwater inflow for all underground operations including UG3 and UW, was reported as just over 35 ML/day. • In 2008, Coffey Geotechnics consolidated a number of studies into a revised groundwater model (CG, 2008b) in support of a Subsidence Management Plans (SMP) for future extraction of longwall panels at UG3. The model also included proposed Ulan West operations and predicted inflow rates of about 18 ML/day at the completion of LW-W3 located on the western side of UG3 (see Figure 1), and a maximum 27 to 30 ML/day at the completion of mining of both UG3 and Ulan West areas. The model also predicted depressurisation of shallower strata to distances of 3 to 10 km beyond the mine panel footprint. Mackie Environmental Research 9 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Other relevant hydrogeological data has been generated in the course of geotechnical studies conducted by Strata Control Technologies. Significant data has been generated through the installation of pore pressure monitoring boreholes designed to provide information on specific strata depressurisation and groundwater flows in proximity to the subsidence zone above extracted panels at UG3. In addition to the above studies there are two other significant regional studies that provide useful information relating to groundwater: • In 2005, Wilpinjong Coal Mine prepared an Environmental Impact Statement in support of proposed open cut operations (6 pits) located approximately 7 km to the southeast of UCML operations. Drilling and hydraulic testing of the strata were conducted over a large area and the Ulan seam and underlying Marrangaroo Sandstone were identified as the main aquifers. Permian coal measures were noted to contain a large proportion of mudstones and siltstones exhibiting very low permeabilities. Triassic sandstones were noted to be elevated and unsaturated in some parts of the area. Impacts of proposed mining on the aquifers were subsequently assessed using numerical computer based simulation modelling techniques. • In 2006, Moolarben Coal Mines (MCM) prepared an Environmental Impact Statement in support of proposed open cut and underground operations located to the east and south of UCML operations. Drilling and hydraulic testing of the Ulan seam and overlying strata were conducted over a large area and groundwater-aquifer impacts were subsequently assessed using numerical computer based simulation modelling techniques. Findings from the study confirmed the relatively permeable nature of the Ulan seam when compared to overburden strata. Likely impacts on groundwater systems arising from proposed open cut operations were found to be limited in magnitude and extent since large parts of the open cut areas were found to be either above the water table or penetrated the water table to relatively shallow depths. Impacts arising from proposed underground (No. 4) longwall operations close to UCML, were noted to be largely restricted to Permian age strata with relatively minor impact predicted on shallower Triassic sandstone strata and the Goulburn River. The Moolarben project was subsequently considered by an Independent Hearing and Assessment Panel (IHAP) in 2007. Panel findings in respect of groundwater noted the open cut operations were likely to impact in a minor way. In contrast, concerns were raised with respect to the proposed underground operations and potential impacts on the Goulburn River and adjacent Triassic sandstone strata. MCM subsequently undertook additional field testing and groundwater modelling to demonstrate such impacts would be negligible. Approval was subsequently granted by DoP in 2008. 2. REGIONAL SETTING The UCML mine site is located approximately 19 kilometres north-east of Gulgong within the Mid Western Regional Council Local Government Area (LGA). The area of interest straddles the Great Dividing Range and drainage catchments associated with the Goulburn River to the east of the divide, and catchments associated with the Talbragar River to the west of the divide (see Figure 1). Current and proposed mining operations consume a large area - the southern perimeter of the proposed open cut is located a few kilometres to the north of the village of Ulan. 2.1 Climate The climate is typical of the western slopes with some similarity to the Upper Hunter region. Coffey (2008b) report that historical rainfall data for Ulan township indicates annual rainfall varying between 285 mm and 1157 mm, with an annual average of about 643 mm. The rainfall is quite evenly distributed with a slight increase during the summer months. Mackie Environmental Research 10 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Evaporation records for Scone weather station (nearest available data) indicate average pan losses varying between 6 mm/day in summer and 3 mm/day in winter. Annual evaporation ranges between 1329 and 2093 mm/yr for the 1973 to 2009 period. Since evaporation significantly exceeds rainfall, a soil water deficit is expected in undisturbed areas for much of the year. 2.2 Drainage, runoff and rainfall recharge The UG3 and Ulan West panel footprints straddle the Great Dividing Range and include portions of the upper catchments of Ulan Creek, Bobadeen Creek and several unnamed creeks that drain to the Goulburn River, and Mona Creek, Cockabutta and other creeks that drain to the Talbragar River (see Figure 1). The tributaries of the Goulburn River upstream of the township of Ulan are considered historically to be intermittent or ephemeral, becoming perennial at some point downstream of the confluence with Murrumbline Creek. The Talbragar River is probably ephemeral upstream of the confluence with Turee Creek and intermittent as far downstream as the confluence with Cockabutta Creek (pers. comm. Umwelt). All other drainages are considered to be naturally ephemeral - the creeks cease to flow in dry spells. 2.2.1 Base flow to the Goulburn and Talbragar Rivers Rainfall recharges the shallow and deep groundwater systems throughout the region. In general, rainfall events are likely to promote limited infiltration in areas of hardrock exposure due to the relatively impermeable nature of rock exposures unless the presence of jointing and fracturing provides permeable conduits. Increased recharge is expected in areas where the regolith is well developed or where alluvial deposits have accumulated. In areas along the Talbragar River where significant alluvial deposits are reported, or along the Goulburn River where localised alluvial deposits have been noted, rainfall and stream flow recharge will replenish these aquifers more readily, and temporarily elevate the water table. Following these recharge events, the elevated water table will provide a driving head to sustain localised bank seepage and exfiltration of groundwater back to the drainages in the form of conventional baseflow. In extended dry and drought periods, baseflow ceases within most tributaries in the area of interest. The duration and magnitude of these baseflows can be used as a general indicator of aquifer storage along the river or stream course. In general, sustained baseflow normally supports the presence of connected transmissive and relatively high storage aquifers, while a rapid decline in baseflow after significant rainfall events tends to indicate limited aquifer transmission and storage capacity. Flow in the Goulburn River has been broadly assessed as part of the current study for the purpose of considering groundwater-surface water interactions within the shallow alluvial and hard rock aquifer systems. Flow data for the period 1956 to 1982 for gauging station 210046 at Ulan township (see Figure 1) has been reviewed and processed to derive estimates of baseflow contributions using a filtering technique. Results are provided in Appendix A as selected flow periods (Figure A1) and as a summary flow duration plot (Figure A2). Calculations for a typical baseflow index of 0.3 suggest flow was mostly sustained during extended dry periods as indicated on Figure A2. Mackie Environmental Research 11 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The recession trends also suggest the alluvium-colluvium-regolith and weathered bedrock upstream of the gauging station offers useful storage potential - baseflow exceeds 0.1 ML/day 90% of the time. These characteristics have been employed in a general way to constrain numerical modelling of the deeper hardrock baseflow discussed in Section 4. Coffey (2008a) also report recent estimates of baseflow at Ulan to be generally in the range 1.5 to 2.5 ML/day based on catchment runoff modelling and other methods. Baseflow estimations for the Talbragar River have not been conducted since the nearest gauging station is situated at Elong Elong some 50 km west of the mine lease boundary. Anecdotal information suggests the river in the vicinity of the project area sustains small flows during dry periods and ceases to flow during drought periods. 2.2.2 River water quality Electrical conductivity (EC) of a water sample is an accepted basic water quality parameter that reflects the total dissolved salts. Baseline monitoring of EC provides a useful indicator of the stability of a flow system and the occurrence of events that impose change to water quality. Coffey (2008b) reports that monthly monitoring conducted by UCML in the Goulburn River at locations upstream and downstream of mining areas over the period 2001 to 2005 inclusive, indicate an average EC of around 450 μS/cm at the upstream station located near Ulan school. This average is assumed to be generally unaffected by mining operations. An average EC of around 1700 μS/cm was recorded at the downstream gauge located at the Ulan Road bridge (see Figure 1) prior to 2003, and was attributed to UCML mine water discharges from Rowans Dam into the river via Ulan Creek. Following cessation of discharges, the river water EC fell to an average of around 750 μS/cm. Continuous monitoring conducted by UCML at the same stations over the period June 2006 to October 2007 supports an average EC of around 494 μS/cm at the upstream station and around 1011 μS/cm at the downstream station. The EC at the downstream station over this period was influenced by discharge into Ulan Creek from a water treatment facility as part of a Reverse Osmosis (RO) trial, with the water discharged to Ulan Creek from the water treatment facility having a higher average EC than Goulburn River water. Subsequent to this trial UCML has incorporated the Bobadeen water treatment facility into its water management system. The electrical conductivity for water discharged from the water treatment facility has also been lowered. The Talbragar River is monitored by Department of Water and Energy (DWE) on a daily basis in the river channel at Elong Elong about 50km west of the mine lease boundary. While this location is beyond the area of interest, it does provide a useful indicator of regional water quality. Results over the period 2000 to 2004 (Pinnenna database, 2004) indicate that EC has an average value of around 1500 μS/cm but falls significantly (for short periods of time) during intense rainfall events, and can increase steadily to at least as high as 2500 μS/cm during prolonged dry periods. 2.3 Geology The mapped geology according to the Western Coalfields Geology Map, Northern Part (NSW Geological Survey, 1998) is shown in Figure 2 while a stratigraphic column for the Ulan West area is provided on Figure 3. Sedimentary rock in the area of interest dip at about 1.0o to the northeast and appear to be contained within structurally disturbed areas around sedimentary-igneous contacts in the Gulgong area to the southwest, and the Liverpool Ranges to the northeast. The main lithologies in stratigraphic order (youngest to oldest) are indicated on Figure 2 and include: • Recent-Quaternary alluvium • Tertiary volcanic intrusives • Jurassic Purlewaugh Siltstone • Triassic Wollar Sandstone Mackie Environmental Research 12 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 • Permian Coal Measures • Carboniferous igneous rocks • Silurian to Devonian age basement rocks Coffey (2008b) provides a summary of the different lithologies which is represented in the following descriptions. Recent-Quaternary alluvial sediments of limited extent are associated with some of the creeks in the project area including Mona Creek, Ulan Creek, Bobadeen Creek, and an unnamed tributary of Cockabutta Creek. The alluvium tends to be present in relatively discontinuous stringer deposits along the valley floors and generally consists of fine to coarse grained sands and gravels in a silt/clay matrix, although some clean sand and gravel deposits are also present. Thicker sequences are present at the confluence of Ulan Creek and the Goulburn River, as well as to the northwest in areas adjacent to the Talbragar River. The distribution of Talbragar River alluvium has been refined for current hydrogeological assessment purposes, to the generally flat lying areas adjacent to the river defined using regional digital terrain data. These areas are identified on Figure 1 and are generally supported by borehole information contained in the Department of Water and Energy (DWE) database of registered bore or well structures. Similarly, alluvium in the vicinity of the East Pit has been plotted on Figure 1 as the generally flat lying areas adjacent to the Goulburn River. Coincidentally, this representation agrees with the greater thicknesses of alluvium associated with the old river course and paleo-channel. The alluvium distributions shown on Figure 2 generally include thinner occurrences or areas grading to colluvium that may be unsaturated. Tertiary volcanics are associated with an area of volcanic activity centred on the Liverpool Ranges to the northeast. The rocks comprise grey amygdaloidal, and alkaline olivine, basalts and have intruded strata as plugs and sills. Jurassic rocks some of which, are present in the northern parts of the project area, are classified into the following units: Pilliga Sandstone also known as the Munmurra Sandstone: This unit consists of crossbedded, coarse, quartzose sandstone (commonly ferruginous) with some conglomerate, minor claystone and shale. It has been reported as a soft, porous quartz sandstone with occasional conglomeritic beds which is often an excellent aquifer. The basal bed is noted as being extremely porous. Merriwa town water supply is obtained from this aquifer. Purlewaugh Siltstone: This unit consists of grey siltstone and mudstone with interbedded fine to medium grained, grey lithic sandstone in some areas. Observations and measurements of permeability of core from UCML exploratory drill holes suggest this unit may act as an aquiclude inhibiting vertical groundwater flow. In the project area it has an average thickness of around 50 m. Triassic rocks are represented by a single unit: Wollar Sandstone: This sandstone is equivalent to the Narrabeen Group further to the south. In the project area it has an average thickness of around 120 m with minor variation. Far to the northeast its thickness increases to in excess of 170 m (Coffey 2008b, Yoo et al, 1983). The sandstone consists of two main facies which are widely identified as either quartzose or lithic sandstones. The quartzose facies comprises cross-bedded porous sandstone with well-rounded quartz pebbles (conglomeritic in parts). McElroy Bryan Geological Services (MBGS) describe this facies as comprising a cream to yellow coloured, quartz-rich, coarse grained to pebble sandstone. The average thickness of this unit in the project area is about 85-90 m. Mackie Environmental Research 13 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The lithic facies underlies the quartzose facies and comprises a light grey/green, poorly sorted sandstone. It contains acid volcanic pebbles (15% to 20%) and grey/green chert pebbles (20% to 25%) typically to +5mm diameter. A sandstone matrix comprises up to 55% of the remaining rock mass. The average thickness of this unit is about 35 m. Permian rocks are represented by the Illawarra Coal measures and have an average thickness of approximately 145 m in the project area. The Triassic/Permian contact is conformable (MBGS, 1996) and occurs at the top of the Middle River and Goulburn coal seams. The sequence has been intruded by numerous dolerite and basalt plugs and sills which have also penetrated the Ulan Seam. Permian Coal Measures (PCM) comprise an interbedded sequence of claystone, siltstone, sandstone and coal seams. Claystones may be carbonaceous in parts while siltstones and sandstones vary from fine to coarse grained, commonly well cemented and often with carbonaceous laminations. Coal seams include the Middle River, Moolarben, Glen Davis, Irondale and Ulan seams which are all generally dull with minor bright bands and moderately to weakly cleated (see Figure 3). The Ulan seam is about 10m thick. The base of the Ulan Seam D working section (the mined section) is an average of about 90m below the top of the PCM sequence. The Ulan Seam is commonly underlain by the Marrangaroo Conglomerate. Marrangaroo Conglomerate: In some areas this conglomerate approaches to within 0.6m of the Ulan seam. It is a reasonably permeable, weakly cemented, massive rock unit with granular to pebbly phases. This unit cannot be readily correlated across the project area and appears to grade to a medium to coarse-grained sandstone in some areas. Carboniferous rocks occur in the west of the region and form the eastern limit of the Lachlan Fold Belt which borders the sedimentary sequence of the Gunnedah Basin. They consist mostly of intrusive igneous bodies and associated volcanics. The main lithologies are (Coffey 2008b): The Wuuluman Granite to the north which consists of medium to coarse-grained hornblende-biotite granite. The Gulgong Granite pluton located to the southwest of the project area. The Gulgong Granite (and Ulan Granite) is a quartz monzonite, with adamellite, granodiorite, and diorite. Aeromagnetic mapping suggests the pluton is ovular with a radius of about 10km or less and an area of approximately 310 km2. The pluton surface dips to the northeast and probably underlies the Permian rocks. Granite has been intersected below the PCM in boreholes in the southwest and western part of the project area. Silurian/Devonian meta-sediments form the basement of the sedimentary basin rocks in the Ulan area. They are known as the Lue Beds and consist of sandstone, phyllite, slate, limestone, shale, and greywacke, with additional tuffs, andesitic volcanics, and limestone. These rocks are often strongly folded and sheared. 2.4 Wireline geophysical logs Wireline geophysical logging is used routinely by UCML to accurately locate, identify and correlate strata intersected in exploration drill holes. Typical logs include caliper, resistivity, natural gamma, density, neutron and sonic. These logs contribute to an understanding and hydrogeological characterisation of strata. Figure 4 provides wireline natural gamma logs for several exploration boreholes within the mine lease (locations shown on Figure 5). The logs essentially record natural gamma radiation emitted by the rock strata which is in turn, attributed to clay content. In an indirect way, the logs provide a general indication of both the matrix permeability of the strata and the likelihood of anisotropic conditions (variable permeability in different directions) within a stratigraphic unit. The interface between major stratigraphic units is well defined by these logs with the Permian Coal Measures and Jurassic Purlewaugh Siltstone revealing greater clay content than the Triassic Wollar Sandstone. The logs are especially useful in discriminating the Triassic quartzose facies from the Mackie Environmental Research 14 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 underlying lithic facies within the Wollar Sandstone. The quartzose facies generally identifies with a relatively low and remarkably constant emission count indicative of more porous, permeable and weakly anisotropic sandstone, than other strata (see Section 3.3.1 below). 2.5 Bedding and structural features Drilling and geophysical wireline logging has provided an extensive database which underpins the interpreted bedding geometry in the project area. Beyond the project area the strata are defined by exploration activity associated with Moolarben and Wilpinjong coal projects, or with established geological maps. Sedimentary rock strata dip to the north-east as indicted by the structure contour mapping for the Ulan seam floor shown on Figure 6 which has been generated from UCML geological modeling with regional inference using kriging techniques supported by hand contouring in areas where there is a low density of exploration bores. A number of near vertical faults have been identified that displace the strata. A major fault zone known as the Spring Gully Fault is located in the eastern portion of the mine lease (Figure 6) and has been observed in the East Pit open cut highwall. The fault is situated along the eastern boundary of UG3 and is a barrier to mining. It trends north-south and exhibits a displacement of up to 8m. Test pumping was conducted at several water bore sites in 2005 in order to assess the hydraulic continuity across the structure (Coffey, 2005b). Results of testing confirmed continuity, suggesting the fault does not act as a significant barrier to groundwater flow. This continuity is also evident in regional observation piezometers like PZ04, PZ14, PZ24 and MPZ101 (Figure 5) which are all situated on the eastern side of the fault and exhibit head losses associated with mining activity on the western side of the fault. A number of other major faults are identified on the regional geological map (Figure 2) and are also indicated on Figure 6. Very little is known about these faults. However for current hydrogeological assessments they are assumed to be similar to the Spring Gully Fault insofar as they do not act as a barrier to groundwater flow - depressurisation of strata induced by future mining operations is assumed to be uncontained. A number of volcanic plugs have also been identified eg. The Echidna sill. These features may enhance groundwater storage around their perimeters as a result of alteration, cracking or seam cindering. 2.6 Regional stress field and jointing Coffey (2008b) report the in-situ stress field can be a significant control on the permeability of fractured rock. The report also notes that the orientation of the in-situ horizontal stress over the Ulan Mine lease was estimated from dilated rock cores from exploration drill holes, together with palaeomagnetism information by Schmidt (1998). Results appear to indicate that the principal horizontal stress at Ulan is oriented N-S in the part of the mine lease north of the Echidna Sill (located underneath the northern reach of Ulan Creek) but is deflected E-W between the Echidna Sill and the Spring Gully Fault. SCT (2007a) note the direction to be NE-SW from subsidence bias observations and from over-coring measurements. Joint controlled drainage lineaments evident from detailed airborne topographic survey and from the regional 1:25000 topographic surface, support numerous directions including N-S, NNW-SSE and NE-SW all of which have influenced weathering and erosion to some degree. This is particularly evident in the course of Ulan Creek and its tributaries, and the Goulburn River in the vicinity of ‘The Drip’ (see Figure 1). Joint control tends to be less conspicuous or absent in areas of upper Triassic strata (upper quartzose sandstone) or Jurassic cover probably as a result of the more friable sandstones in the quartzose facies or the increased presence of siltstones and claystones in Jurassic strata. Jointing in Triassic sandstones might be expected to provide increased secondary permeability and porosity. However, general observations of outcrop and inspections of rock core suggest that Mackie Environmental Research 15 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 jointing is often widely spaced and as such, may not significantly enhance groundwater flow systems at depth due to infrequency and increasing confinement. The Ulan seam may be an exception where a combination of cleating, bedding shear and jointing provides the dominant transmission mechanism. 3. GROUNDWATER HYDROLOGY Groundwater occurrence within the region has been mapped over many years. domains have been identified: • the unconsolidated alluvial aquifers associated with some drainages; • the shallow regolith and weathered rock zone; and • the more regional sedimentary rocks. Three principal The presence and geometry of these domains has been determined using geological mapping, air photos, remote sensing, exploration drilling and regional borehole databases. 3.1 Existing licensed bores and wells in the region Relatively shallow groundwater resources have been exploited by the construction bores and wells throughout the region. In order to determine the locations of existing bores and wells, a records search has been conducted on the DWE database. This database contains all registered structures and includes both pumping bores and wells, and exploration/test wells which may have been completed as monitoring bores. Measurement of water level and basic water quality parameters has also been undertaken as part of a regional bore census conducted in 2007 (Coffey, 2008) and updated in 2009 by UCML. Appendix B provides a summary of known locations of bores and wells. Figure 7 identifies 48 private bores located within a zone extending some 8 km or more beyond the mine panel footprint for UG3 and Ulan West. An overview of bore construction information indicates most locations appear to draw groundwater from hard rock aquifer zones rather than the alluvial areas. Yields are variable but generally low, and water qualities vary from fresh to slightly brackish. 3.2 Groundwater occurrence in unconsolidated sediments Alluvial sediments can be broadly classified as either Quaternary shallow valley fill sediments that are substantive along the Talbragar River and relatively minor along other drainages west of the Great Divide, or the deeper and older Tertiary sediments noted particularly in the Moolarben area east of the divide. Quaternary (and Recent) alluvium east of the divide is more localised. Figure 1 provide shows the occurrence and approximate boundaries to the unconsolidated alluvial materials associated with the Talbragar River based on topographic grade, air photo inspections and limited borehole information (DWE database). This distribution is less extensive than the distribution identified in Figure 2. Beyond the perimeter of the alluvium shown on Figure 1, the unconsolidated materials are expected to grade into colluvial deposits and weathered bedrock (and regolith), the characteristics of which may be highly variable. Mackie Environmental Research 16 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The alluvium tends to be a mixed sequence of sands, silts and clays as determined from a small number of bores identified as part of a regional bore census undertaken by UCML. Groundwater contained within these sediments occurs at depths of 10m or so with estimated saturated thicknesses of alluvium of the order of 20 to 25m. Minor occurrences in the upper reaches of Mona Creek and Broken Back Creek, were drilled in late 2008 and piezometers were installed as part of the UCML regional groundwater monitoring program (see Figure 5 for locations). Results have shown the alluvium to be thin (less than 5m) and comprised of sandy, silty deposits with limited saturated thickness. Most test holes were essentially dry. Shallow alluvial materials associated with the Goulburn River tend to be more localised than the Talbragar River alluvium. Alluvium (now removed) that was originally located along the river course as a paleo-channel before the river was diverted around the East Pit, is also shown on Figure 1 as are alluvial deposits in the vicinity of the confluence of the river with Ulan Creek that are known as the ‘northern alluvium’. Paleo-channel deposits comprise interbedded clays, sandy clays, sands and sandy gravels that are strongly cemented in the upper 5m with clay bands up to 5m thickness alternating with more granular beds up to 4m thickness. The northern alluvium exhibits different characteristics comprising silty sands at the surface, underlain by sands and clayey sands, with sands and gravels towards the base (Coffey, 2008a). Deposits along Moolarben Creek appear to be similar in character to sediments identified in the northern alluvium (Moolarben EA, 2006). Tertiary paleo-channels identified in the central south part of the Moolarben project area are reported to host infill sediments up to 48m thick which are comprised of poorly sorted quartzose sediments partly consolidated within a clayey matrix. 3.2.1 Hydraulic properties of alluvium Hydraulic properties of the alluvial deposits along the Talbragar River, have not been measured. Since the materials comprise a mixed assemblage of clays, silts, sands and gravels, the horizontal hydraulic conductivity range is expected to range from 0.01 to 10 m/day while an effective porosity range is likely to range from 1% to perhaps 20%. The vertical conductivity range is expected to be lower. Measured hydraulic conductivities of alluvium associated with the Goulburn River range from 0.01 to 10 m/day. Measured conductivities of alluvium in the Moolarben project area are reported to range from 0.05 to 3 m/day (Moolarben EA, 2006). 3.3 Groundwater occurrence in hard rock strata Groundwater within the Jurassic, Triassic and Permian strata in the project area is held predominantly as interstitial (pore space) storage. The groundwater is derived from recharge by rainfall infiltration through the shallow weathered rock zone into the underlying rocks over geologic time. Recharge in topographically high areas has sustained a moderately elevated water table that is constrained mostly by surface drainage systems flanking these high areas. That is, the water table mound beneath the elevated areas is intercepted by local drainages which act to relieve groundwater pressures by either conveying seeped groundwater as baseflow down slope to the Goulburn and Talbragar rivers, or by evapotranspirational losses through vegetation along these same drainages. As a result, the geometry of the water table tends to be a subdued reflection of topography. Groundwater flow rates within the hard rock strata while not measured, are likely to vary significantly. Higher rates of flow are expected within the Triassic sandstones which are porous and permeable, while much lower rates of flow are expected within Permian sandstones, siltstones and claystones which are relatively impermeable. There is potential for groundwater exchange between strata via fractures and micro cracks which introduce secondary permeability throughout the strata if they form a connected network. Mackie Environmental Research 17 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 However it is extremely difficult to establish the occurrence, frequency and extent of these fractures since they are mostly vertical or sub vertical and consequently are less likely to be intersected by exploration boreholes than fractures that might occur at shallow angles. Core inspections and borehole permeability testing undertaken as part of the current study suggest fracturing in hard rock strata at depth is relatively limited and deeper strata are therefore likely to exhibit low secondary permeability. Where observed in core, the fractures are often clean and without alteration, implying negligible movement of groundwater along these features. The Ulan coal seam is identified as the main aquifer in the Permian strata insofar as it offers enhanced groundwater storage and transmission characteristics through the presence of cleating. Historical mining operations at Ulan have depressurised the seam for distances of more than 10 km beyond mined areas. Seam depressurisation has in turn induced vertical leakage and pressure losses within overlying and underlying strata. 3.3.1 Hydraulic properties of hard rock strata Hydraulic testing has been conducted by UCML in the hard rock strata within the project area as part of regional hydrogeological evaluations over a number of years. Test procedures have historically comprised conventional packer injection type testing and test pumping. Laboratory measurements on strata core have been conducted as part of the current study to establish an expected range in matrix hydraulic conductivities together with bulk and effective porosities. Other measurements that have contributed to the hydraulic properties knowledge base include parameters relating to geomechanical properties - sonic velocity, unconfined compressive strength (UCS) and Youngs modulus. Testing of the Ulan seam and other strata, has also been undertaken in the Moolarben area (Moolarben, 2006) as part of Environmental Assessment studies. This information has been used to supplement UCML data. Recent UCML packer testing has been completed at 8 exploration borehole locations. Testing has been conducted using either a single packer drill stem assembly (eg. borehole DDH242) or a straddle packer assembly with test intervals varying from 3 m to 6 m. Test procedure has comprised measurement of the rate of clean water injection to test intervals over a range of injection pressures. Test locations and results are provided in Appendix C. However it is noted that a number of tests may have been conducted at the limit of the equipment. For these tests the analytical results are regarded as upper limit estimates of hydraulic conductivity. Laboratory tests have been conducted on selected core from two exploration holes DDH242 in longwall panel LW24 in the UG3 area, and DDH340 in LW-UW8 in the Ulan West area. These tests were undertaken in order to provide improved estimates of intergranular matrix conductivity and to examine the ratio of vertical to horizontal conductivity (anisotropy). Total porosity and effective porosity were also determined for selected samples. Details are provided in Appendix C and summarised in Table 1. Table 1: Summary of core measurements by formation Strata Kv (LN) Effective porosity m/day % Jurassic sandstones 2.15E-03 Triassic quartzose sandstones 5.62E-02 6.1 to 16.9 Triassic lithic sandstones 2.66E-04 1.5 to 12.8 Permian sandstones 8.03E-06 0.3 Permian siltstones 4.13E-07 Permian shales 1.98E-07 Kv=vertical hydraulic conductivity LN = mean for log normal distribution The hydraulic conductivity distribution for the different strata is usefully summarised on Figure 8 which illustrates selected wireline logs for borehole DDH242 together with the results of packer and core conductivity tests. Mackie Environmental Research 18 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The plot indicates: • a general correlation between packer tests and core tests to the extent that higher core conductivities tend to correlate with higher packer test conductivities; • core conductivities tend to inversely correlate to sonic velocities - high conductivities equate to low velocities (eg. Triassic quartzose sandstones) and lower conductivities equate to higher velocities that are generally associated with higher cementation and increased rock strengths; • core conductivities inversely correlate to wireline gamma ray emission counts – high conductivities equate to low counts (eg. Triassic quartzose sandstones) and lower conductivities equate to higher counts; • The Jurassic (sandstone) samples tend to exhibit an order of magnitude lower conductivities than the Triassic quartzose samples; • Most of the Triassic quartzose samples exhibit relatively high conductivities (above 0.01 m/day) consistent with a porous and sometimes friable sandstone evident in hand specimen; • Triassic lithic sandstones are evidently less permeable than the Triassic quartzose samples with the upper 10 to 15 m exhibiting very low conductivities; • Permian non coal strata are the least permeable rocks being mostly below 1.0E-5 m/day for sandstone-siltstone core samples (claystone-shales and coal not sampled). Figure 9 explores the correlation between measured core conductivities and gamma count. This relationship is considered to be particularly useful in extrapolating the strata matrix conductivities to locations where core tests have not been conducted ie. at all exploration holes since wireline gamma and other logs are routinely run. Regionally, the gamma log characteristics show a high degree of similarity (Figure 4). Figure 10 explores the relationship between effective porosity and conductivity for selected sandstone samples. While the data is limited, a useful relationship is clearly apparent – high effective porosity equates to high conductivity, and low porosity equates to low conductivity as expected. The relationship implies Triassic quartzose sandstones are the most permeable and porous strata while Permian non coal strata are the least permeable and least porous strata. Compressibility and subsequent estimates of storativity (as Ss) have been calculated from laboratory measurements of Youngs Modulus undertaken by SCT Operations Limited (SCT, 2007) and measurements of total porosity (Appendix C). Specific storage estimates ranging from 1.69E-06 to 5.13E-06 1/m have been calculated for a modulus range from 3.1 to 17.7 GPa. 3.4 Groundwater monitoring Coffey (2008a) provides a comprehensive summary of the groundwater monitoring networks installed at UCML. The main network comprises the North Monitoring Network (NMN) shown on Figure 5 which supports regional scale monitoring of the impacts of mining on groundwater systems. The NMN serves the purpose of monitoring groundwater levels at relatively discrete horizons in the Permian strata and the overlying Triassic and Jurassic strata. The monitoring data collected from the network facilitates an assessment of the piezometric head distribution in the hardrock groundwater system. The network currently comprises more than 20 locations where strata piezometric levels or pore pressures are monitored, usually at numerous depths. Conventional screened piezometers are monitored manually on a quarterly basis for groundwater levels and on an annual basis for groundwater quality. This network also includes piezometers associated with geotechnical studies relating to the subsidence zone. Appendix D lists monitoring piezometer survey and completion information for the networks, and plotted piezometric responses over time. Mackie Environmental Research 19 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The Bobadeen Monitoring Network (BMN) was installed in 2003 to monitor the impacts of irrigation of mine water on groundwater levels and groundwater quality of unconsolidated sediments within the upper catchments of Mona Creek, Ulan Creek, and Spring Gully Creek. Irrigation water is applied using five pivots in the northwest and central parts of the mine lease. The BMN consists of 9 piezometers installed to depths of up to 12m in residual soils, regolithic materials and colluvium. The network does not provide information with respect to the regional aquifer systems. The Intermittent Monitoring Network (IMN) consists of 20 locations in hardrock strata or mine spoil (see Appendix D). The IMN comprises bores or piezometers that either have been installed for specific purposes, and/or have extensive screens (and so measure a depth-averaged or composite hydraulic head). The network may be monitored intermittently for groundwater levels and qualities to provide additional data to complement the NMN monitoring data. The Goulburn River and Ulan Creek Alluvium Monitoring Network (AMN) consists of 9 locations (see Appendix D) which are generally screened throughout the thickness of alluvium associated with the Goulburn River or Ulan Creek. They may be monitored intermittently for groundwater levels and quality to provide additional data for ongoing projects. The Goulburn River Diversion Baseline Assessment Monitoring Network (GRDBAMN) network was installed in 2006 as part of an assessment of the Goulburn River Diversion. It consists of 4 locations in the East Pit and together with piezometers in the AMN, is monitored to provide groundwater level data for the alluvium, Permian Coal Measures, and East Pit spoil associated with the Goulburn River. 3.4.1 Piezometric surfaces and groundwater flows Water level data for the NMN has been compiled since late 2005 for both undisturbed areas, and areas impacted by mining and is the main database underpinning current hydrogeological studies for future impacts assessments. This database has been used as the primary source for interpolating piezometric surfaces in the regional hardrock strata. Data plots for individual piezometers within this network are provided in Appendix D. The phreatic surface (water table) which resides in the Triassic quartzose facies of the Wollar Sandstone, is shown in Figure 11 for measured responses in 2008-9. The piezometric contours in the project area support a north-easterly groundwater flow direction which tends easterly at the northern end of UG3 then south-easterly under the influence of the Goulburn River drainage system. These changing flow directions suggest rainfall recharge to the Triassic strata occurs where it subcrops and outcrops to the southwest of the proposed Ulan West mine. In this area there is minimal or no overlying Jurassic Purlewaugh Siltstone present. The Great Divide is plotted to illustrate an apparently weak influence from the Talbragar River in the area of interest – the groundwater divide does not align with the topographic divide. Figure 12 shows the assessed piezometric surface for the Ulan Seam for 2008-9. This surface differs markedly from the water table shown in Figure 11 and illustrates the significant impact of mining operations where extracted and dewatered panels have depressurised strata and attracted flow from all directions as expected – the UG3 operations effectively act as a groundwater sink. 3.4.2 Groundwater Quality Groundwater sampling data collected over the last 10 years, but particularly over the annual water quality monitoring rounds from 2002 to 2008, reveal distinctive water types for the Jurassic, Triassic, Permian strata and the Ulan seam with respect to basic water quality parameters EC and pH while ionic speciation suggests broader similarities. Parameters EC and pH for 104 groundwater samples collected between 2002 and 2008, are summarised in Table 2. Results indicate that overall, the groundwater salinity (as EC) of the Triassic (Wollar) Sandstone is typically around half the salinity of Permian strata sampling and less than one fifth the salinity of Jurassic sampling. pH measurements support a weakly basic signature for Permian groundwaters, a neutral signature for Triassic groundwaters and a weakly Mackie Environmental Research 20 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 acidic signature for the Ulan seam. It is also noted that the EC of groundwater of the quartzose strata of the Wollar Sandstone is comparable to the EC of Goulburn River surface water and is significantly lower than the average value of EC for surface water of the Talbragar River at Elong Elong. Table 2. EC and pH of undisturbed strata Unit No. samples EC (St.Dev) uS/cm pH (St.Dev) Jurassic 9 2554 (1148) 7.61 (1.17) Triassic 59 471 (326) 7.50 (1.64) Permian 10 1151 (626) 9.53 (1.62) Ulan seam 26 1310 (1739) 6.47 (0.31) Representative water sample data for major ions is provided in Appendix D. A number of samples for the Moolarben project (Moolarben, 2006) have also been included for completeness. This data set is summarised on the tri-linear speciation plot also known as a Piper diagram – Figure 13. The plot comprises two triangular fields representing cations and anions, and a central diamond field. Individual samples are represented as percentage milli-equivalents within the lower triangular fields where each apex represents 100% of the nominated ion. Plotted positions within the triangular fields have been projected into the central diamond field, thereby facilitating a generalised classing of groundwaters and examination of possible mixing trends. Plotted data is summarised in the following Table 3. The Ulan seam exhibits elevated bicarbonate (as percentage milli-equivalents) when compared to other strata possibly due to the influence of carbonates associated with localised volcanic intrusives. The presence of sodium in Permian coal measures samples (interburden) may be attributed to similar mechanisms observed in the Upper Hunter coalfield where enhanced levels are associated with cation exchange (Na for Ca) relating to the presence of smectite in interburden. Table 3. Ionic species relevance for different stratigraphic units Unit 3.4.3 Cations Anions GR alluvium Na > Mg > Ca SO4 > Cl > HCO3 Jurassic Na > Mg > Ca Cl > HCO3 >> SO4 Triassic Na > Mg, Ca HCO3, Cl >>SO4 Permian Na > Mg, Ca HCO3, Cl >>SO4 Ulan seam Na > Mg, Ca HCO3 > Cl >>SO4 Goaf Water Quality Coffey (2008a) report that monthly monitoring of goaf water being extracted by underground dewatering pumps provides some information on the change in groundwater quality in the workings with time. The results of an assessment of monitoring of extracted groundwater from dewatering pumps 12, 20, and 22 over the period November 2006 to August 2007 are shown in Table 4 and plotted on Figure 5. Each of these pumps controls the groundwater levels in specific underground compartments. Pump P12 is in the oldest (up dip) goaf compartment (longwalls LW9 to LW12) while pump P22 is in the youngest (down dip) goaf compartment – see Figure 5 for locations of pumping bores. Mackie Environmental Research 21 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Table 4. Average goaf water EC and pH over the period 2006 to 2007 (from Coffey 2008a) Pleuger Pump P12 (LW9 to LW12) Pleuger Pump P20 Pleuger Pump P22 Average 2195 1326 846 Standard Deviation 131 285 32 Average 6.5 6.7 7.2 Standard Deviation 0.2 0.1 0.2 Average 945 302 10* Standard Deviation 133 160 * EC (µS/cm) pH Sulphate (mg/L) * Two measurements only (10mg/L each). A trend of increasing salinity and sulphate concentration, and decreasing pH in a down dip direction, is suggested and is attributed to pyrite oxidation and dissolution (and limited pH buffering from interburden) – the longer the timeframe, the greater the effects. It is noted that significant recirculation of mine water and tailings decant water was occurring during this period which potentially impacted the pH and EC measurements of the goaf water. Single water samples collected from each of the dewatering pumps P 6 (longwalls LW1 to LW8), P10 (longwalls LW9 to LW12), and P12 (longwalls LW9 to LW12) in August 1997 (Kinhill, 1998) further demonstrate the general impact of pyritic material on water quality. Results for basic water quality parameters are listed in Table 5. Overall, the salinity (expressed as EC) appears to increase at a rate of around 1000 µS/cm per 10 years however this process is not expected to be linear. Table 5: Goaf water quality in August 1997 (from Coffey 2008a) 3.4.4 Pleuger Pump P6 (LW1 to LW8) Pleuger Pump P10 (LW9 to LW12) Pleuger Pump P12 (LW9 to LW12) EC (µS/cm) 1714 1450 984 pH 6.05 6.44 7.36 Sulphate (mg/L) 733 550 210 Historical mine water influx Underground mine water influx has historically comprised contributions from many sources including • seepage into the old underground No.2 (UG2) operations to the south of UG3; • seepage to UG3; • seepage to open cut mining in the East and West pits; • rainfall and runoff to local catchments and infiltration through pit spoils; • and potential river leakage through the East Pit end wall. The determination of theses various contributions is important for future predictions but quantification has been complicated by the presence of re-circulated mine waters that have been sourced via different leakage pathways. For example, Coffey 2008a report that in August 1996 tailings disposal at Ulan mine was redirected from the East Pit overburden to the Northwest Pit overburden in order to mitigate the build-up of mine water in the East Pit ahead of highwall mining. About 2.2 ML/day of tailings Mackie Environmental Research 22 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 were being produced in 1995 and reposited in dams within spoils. Much of the supernatant is believed to have leaked from the dams and reported to the East Pit pond and resulting in an increase in East Pit water levels in August 1996 (approximately 650 ML of water - HLA, 2001). This may have driven an increased rate of leakage to UG3 operations which are situated down dip of the open cut. The average calculated groundwater inflow to UG3 during 1997 was around 3.5 to 4.0 ML/day. Short-duration increases in inflow of up to 12 ML/day or more were experienced in mid 1998 and early 2000. The sharp increase in mid 1998 coincided with commencement of highwall mining in the West Pit and a 1 in 100-year rainfall event that flooded the access pit to a depth of several metres. This event also generated a hydraulic head of approximately 15 m of water on the 40 m barrier between the end of the highwall entries and longwall LW-A (see Appendix E, Figure E11 for panel location). The sharp increase in early 2000 coincided with the introduction of the South 5 Tailings Dam in 1999 and a subsidence event at Ulan Creek associated with highwall mining. The historical dataset indicates that water within the West Pit, and probably the East Pit, (comprising runoff, rainfall infiltration, supernatant and some groundwater) was migrating through the highwall entries and potentially along fractures or cleats, to the underground goaf. HLA (2001) estimated that a yearly average of about 2.6 ML/day of water acceded to the underground workings from these sources during very wet conditions. In 2008 UCML decommissioned the use of South 5 Tailings Dam which was estimated to contribute up to 10 ML/day water make into Underground No. 3. UCML currently monitors water levels in the goaves and discharge volumes from underground dewatering pumps, via an electronic monitoring system. This data and other site data have been used to generate a water balance for the 2007-2008 period for underground operations. The balance takes into account the volumes of water pumped into and out of underground operations, product coal moisture, estimates of re-circulation from surface stored waters, rainfall and runoff to spoils and numerous other factors which are described in detail in Umwelt, 2009. Results of the most recent water balance monitoring support a groundwater ingress to operational and subsided areas (including rainfall influx via surface subsidence related cracks) of about 7.8 ML/day in January 2007 rising to 9.2 ML/day in December 2008 and averaging about 8.5 ML/day at the beginning of 2008. 4.0 COMPUTER SIMULATION OF PROPOSED MINING Proposed mining will continue to extract coal from the Ulan seam in the extended West Pit open cut area and from longwall panels in the UG3 and Ulan West areas. In underground areas, panel extractions will continue below the prevailing regional water table and will result in further depressurisation of the coal seam and overlying strata including Permian coal measures and Triassic strata. Depressurisation above the seam will continue to be enhanced through caving and subsidence, and a pressure (loss) wave will propagate further beyond the extracted panels at a rate governed by the prevailing hydraulic properties of all strata and the drainage characteristics within the subsidence zone. Evaluation of the pressure loss regime for seam extraction that includes simultaneous evolution of a subsidence zone, is extremely difficult and complex and requires analyses in both space and time. The most appropriate technique to undertake such analyses, is numerical simulation using computer based modelling techniques. An updated computer based mathematical model of the region has been developed in order to understand the likely regional extent of depressurisation and to predict mine water influx. The model computer code known as Modflow-Surfact (Hydrogeologic, 1996) employs a numerical finite difference scheme for solving a set of differential equations known to govern groundwater flow. Importantly, the code is reasonably robust in handling steep hydraulic gradients and variably saturated zones that commonly evolve above subsided panels. Mackie Environmental Research 23 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 The modelling method requires dividing the overall area of interest into a large number of separate cells defined by a mesh area which incorporates the proposed mine panel geometry and seam extraction sequence, the spatial variations occurring in strata properties, the prevailing drainage system, and the expected hydraulic gradients that evolve during the simulation period. A summary of the constructed model is provided in Appendix E. The model layers adopt a geometry consistent with the known regional stratigraphy but with additional layers included to provide improved representation of strata groundwater pressures. 4.1 Groundwater model properties and initial conditions Properties assigned to the model which govern groundwater flow, include hydraulic conductivity, elastic storage and specific yield. Hydraulic conductivities assigned to each model layer below layer 1 were initially informed by core testing (matrix conductivities only) as summarised in Appendices C and E. These values were then adjusted within a reasonably narrow range as part of the model calibration process which involved both steady state and transient simulations. Resulting values suggest the regional flow system at depth is dominated by matrix intergranular flow rather than fracture flow, except for the coal seams where cleating provides the flow conduits. Boundary conditions were also assigned throughout the aquifer model. These are numerical conditions that constrain or bound the model domain. Constant head river conditions have been imposed along the Goulburn River for the reach downstream of the confluence with Bobadeen Creek where river flow is assumed to occur at all times. These conditions enforce seepage from surrounding areas of elevated water table to the river, or seepage from the river to surrounding strata if the water table in those strata, is lower than the river level(s). River conditions have also been imposed on the Talbragar River in the western part of the model below the confluence with Mona Creek. Drain cells have been used to represent all other reaches of the rivers and creeks which are assumed to be either intermittent or ephemeral. Assigning these conditions allows the model water table to drain to the creek lines if the elevation of the water table is higher than the creek bed elevations, or to fall below the creek bed without inducing leakage from the creek ie. the creek dries up. Drain cells have also been assigned to open cut areas, underground development headings, gate roads and longwall panels at elevations equivalent to the seam working section floor. These nodes have been carefully scheduled to attract groundwater seepage in general accordance with the historical and proposed mine plan. Distributed flux conditions have been employed to represent regional rainfall recharge. This recharge has been applied at differing rates across the model domain depending on the shallow and surficial geology present at particular locations. Groundwater abstraction by local landholders for domestic, stock and irrigation purposes, has not been included. 4.2 Model calibration to field conditions The assembled groundwater model has been calibrated against measured groundwater levels and historical mining operations. This process has involved both steady state and transient history matching of model predictions to measured water table and pore pressure data. Steady state calibration aimed to generate a pre-mining water table nominally at January 1986 before open cut operations had advanced significantly below the water table, and before any UG3 operations were commenced. The procedure involved adjustment of strata hydraulic properties and regional rainfall recharge rates until a plausible match was achieved between the observed water levels at a number of regional bore locations, and the predicted levels at those same locations. The transient calibration process involved further adjustment of strata hydraulic properties and other parameters on a trial and error basis until predicted piezometric elevations and groundwater seepage to UG3 operations plausibly matched observed piezometric elevations and observed water make. Results of both calibration procedures are provided in Appendix E. Mackie Environmental Research 24 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Figure E6 in Appendix E illustrates the predicted pre-mining water table. This plot establishes a steady state baseline position and facilitates an understanding of groundwater flow directions and rates of flow. The piezometric contours shown on Figure E6 reasonably correlate to those shown on Figure 11. Flow pathlines are also shown on Figure E6. These pathlines describe individual water particle tracks over a long period of time and are useful in understanding the regional flow systems. The prescribed pathlines that transgress the project area, define recharge in an area west and south-west of the proposed Ulan West underground mine. From that area the pathlines describe a route either to the north and north-west to the Talbragar River catchment, or to the north-east and east eventually turning south-eastward and exiting the model down the Goulburn River catchment. The groundwater flow divide defined by these pathlines is located up to 5 km west of the topographic Great Divide. Figure 14 gives the predicted pre-mining saturation height (submergence) of Jurassic strata calculated by subtracting the floor of these strata from the pre-mining water table shown on Figure E6. This plot clearly shows Jurassic strata are only likely to be saturated in areas to the north-east of UG3 with increasing submergence further to the north-east. Figure 15 gives the predicted pre-mining submergence of Triassic strata similarly calculated by subtracting the floor of the Wollar Sandstone (lithic sandstone base) from the pre-mining water table. This plot shows the sandstone was saturated over most of the UG3 area prior to mining, with zero saturation located at the southern extremity of the panel footprint. Increasing submergence to more than 100 m head of water, is indicated in north-eastern areas above panels LW-29 to LW-33. Figure 16 gives the predicted pre-mining submergence of the Ulan seam. This plot shows the seam was probably saturated over most of the underground and open cut areas prior to mining. Increasing submergence to more than 190 m (including Triassic strata) is indicated in north-east areas above panels LW-29 to LW-33. Transient calibration results for the simulation of mining from 1986 to 2009 are provided in Figures 17 and 18 as both the predicted piezometric surface and the drawdown for both the Triassic strata (Wollar Sandstone lithic facies) and the Ulan seam in 2009. Figure 17 indicates complete dewatering of Triassic and deeper strata above mined panels with measurable depressurisation extending some 2 to 3 km beyond the panel footprint (defined by the 2 m drawdown contour) in down-dip directions and further in up-dip directions. The extended drawdown in a north-west to south-east direction in areas south and south-west of mining operations, represents loss of saturation in shallow non-Triassic strata which have been assigned to the same model layer in areas up-dip of mining and have been affected by down-dip drainage. In reality, parts of these areas are likely to be perched water tables supported by rainfall recharge to the shallow regolith and weathered bedrock. Figure 18 similarly indicates complete dewatering of the Ulan seam in mined panel areas with depressurisation in the Ulan seam extending more than 10 km beyond the panel footprint in down-dip directions and further in the Moolarben area. Appendix E provides a detailed summary of other aspects relating to the calibration procedures. Vertical section plots of pore pressure distributions are also provided as Figure E10 in Appendix E. These plots are useful in illustrating the dewatered zone above mined panels. 4.3 Future mining induced depressurisation of rock strata The calibrated aquifer model has been used to simulate depressurisation of the Ulan seam and overlying strata based on the future mine plan which provides for extraction of coal over a period of 21 years to the end of 2029 in both UG3 and Ulan West underground areas, and in extensions to West Pit open cut. Underground headings, gate roads, longwall panels and open cut strips have all been carefully scheduled in the prediction model according to the mining timetable provided in Appendix E, Table E6. Figures 19 and 20 provide the extent of predicted depressurisation at the end of mining at Ulan West in 2029. Figure 19 indicates complete dewatering of Triassic strata above all mined panels Mackie Environmental Research 25 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 with depressurisation extending some 4 to 5 km beyond the panel footprint. Figure 20 indicates complete dewatering of the Ulan seam in mined panel areas with depressurisation in the Ulan seam extending more than 20 km beyond the panel footprint. Figures E16 and E17 in Appendix E provide vertical section plots of pore pressures at the completion of mining. These plots illustrate the extent of the unsaturated zones above mined panels. 4.4 Predicted groundwater seepage to underground operations On completion of the 21 years simulation period, specific zone budgets were extracted from the groundwater model in order to provide estimates of mine water influx. Results are summarised on Figure 21 for UG3 and UW operations respectively. Reference to Figure 21a indicates a predicted water make in UG3 which rises steadily from less than 0.1 ML/day at the commencement of mining, to about 6 ML/day in 2006-2007. After that time the seepage rate increases more rapidly due to an increased mining footprint as a result of larger panel widths (increased rate of coal extraction) and increasing contributions from the Triassic strata due to increasing submergence. The rate of influx is predicted to peak at about 16 ML/day in 2019 with the extraction of the last of the longer panels LW-W8, and to decline thereafter as shorter length panels are extracted. Figure 21b indicates a water make in Ulan West operations which rises quite rapidly from commencement of mining in 2012 to about 6 ML/day in 2014 as the first two panels are extracted. After that time the seepage rate increases at a subdued rate, peaking in 2021 at about 8 ML/day during the extraction of panel UW6. The rate of influx is predicted to decline thereafter as the remaining shorter length panels are extracted. Total mine water seepage rates are summarised on Figure 21c where a peak rate of 24 ML/day is predicted in 2018. The seepage rate assumes no contributions from localised fracture related storage (that might be associated with a fault for example) since the extent and hydraulic properties of this type of storage remain unknown. However it would not be unreasonable to expect up to 0.5 to 1.0 ML/day increase in groundwater seepage over periods of days to weeks if significant and as yet unidentified fracture network storage is encountered and drained. These types of flows have been previously encountered in the vicinity of the volcanic plugs and sills. 4.5 Recovery of aquifer pressures post mining Mining is expected to cease in 2029-2030 following extraction of panel LW-UW11 at Ulan West. After this time regional aquifer pressures and the water table will begin to rebound. The rate of rebound will be dependent upon the piezometric head distributions of groundwater held in storage within the surrounding hard rock strata, the hydraulic properties of goaf and the overlying fractured zone, and the ongoing gravity drainage of strata above mined panels until piezometric heads equilibrate. Recovery of strata pressures has been simulated by adopting the groundwater pressure distributions at 2030 as initial conditions for a recovery model. The operations are simply left to recover without further pumping from underground. Adjustments in model hydraulic properties prior to commencement of recovery, are summarised in Appendix E. The predicted long term steady state water table is shown on Figure 23. The time taken to achieve this is predicted to be in excess of 200 years (Appendix E provides plots of the piezometric head distributions at 100 and 200 years). The difference between the water table shown on Figure 23a and the pre-mining water table, is provided on Figure 23b (pre-mining minus post mining water tables). This plot demonstrates: • ultimate recovery above mine panels is likely to generate a relatively flat lying water table within the mine footprint as a result of enhanced hydraulic conductivities from cracking within the subsidence zone and open storage along headings, roadways and in goaves; Mackie Environmental Research 26 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 • 4.6 a relatively flat lying water table may be generated within the extended West Pit open cut spoils which will be governed ultimately by the water levels in the East Pit and by the effectiveness of rehabilitation in inhibiting rainfall percolation (to spoils) and the diversion of runoff around the final landform. Baseflow losses to regional rivers and creeks The impact of shallow depressurisation on groundwater baseflows from the deep hardrock strata to the regional drainage systems, has also been extracted from the simulation model. Figure 22 provides seepage budget results. These plots demonstrate almost complete loss of baseflow contributions to Ulan Creek and Bobadeen Creek (including Spring Gully) catchments by 2020 from predicted initial (pre-mining) rates of 10 kL/day (0.01 ML/day). Losses to the Goulburn River tributaries above Ulan township are negligible while losses over the reach from Ulan township to the confluence with Bobadeen Creek are predicted to be sustained over the entire mining period. Summation of losses for the Goulburn River catchment indicate a decline over the mine life (1986-2030) of about 0.2 ML/day for the total drainage system extending to the eastern extremity of the model. It is noted that these flows represent only part of total baseflows. They do not include the more commonly recognised seepage contributions from unconsolidated stream bank (and regolith) systems which are often perched (eg. Mona Creek alluvium) and respond to rainfall and stream flows which are event based. The localised scale of these processes and their changes in storage due to rainfall events, precludes their inclusion in the groundwater model. Table 6 provides a useful summary of losses to the deeper hardrock system. Mona Creek catchment is the most affected catchment providing baseflow to the Talbragar River but sustained losses are also noted in Cockabutta Creek catchment. Summation of losses for the Talbragar River catchment indicate a decline over the mine life of 0.24 ML/day. Table 6: Estimated baseflow losses attributed to the hardrock system Period 5. Goulburn River (ML/day) Talbragar River (ML/day) 1986 to 2009 0.092 0.035 2009 to 2030 0.110 0.205 2030 to 2230 (200 years post mining) 0.521 0.384 POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS The proposed continuation of mining would induce further change to the local groundwater environment. Potential impacts arising from the development include: Sustained reduction in regional hard rock aquifer pressures; Loss of groundwater yield at some existing bore locations; Change in groundwater quality in the strata; Impact on groundwater dependent ecosystems; 5.1 Reduction in regional hard rock pressures and baseflow impacts Continued mining of the Ulan seam will sustain a pressure loss regime in the regional hardrock strata. This pressure loss regime has been predicted using aquifer numerical modelling techniques described in Section 4 above. Strata depressurisation and dewatering is predicted to migrate upwards from extracted longwall panels, through the subsidence zone to the Triassic (Wollar) sandstones where near complete drainage is expected (over the panel footprint). Reductions in piezometric head in these sandstones are also predicted to extend some 3 to 4 km beyond the panel Mackie Environmental Research 27 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 footprint except in the Moolarben area where the impact of dewatering and depressurisation due to MCM open cut and underground mining will extend the regional pressure reductions further to the east and south-east. Groundwater pressure reductions in the Ulan seam are more widespread than the shallower Triassic strata in the UCML project area, and are predicted to migrate distances of more than 20 km beyond the panel footprint in the long term before receding as the system recovers after cessation of mining. The net cumulative groundwater seepage to UCML mine workings is predicted to rise from a current rate of about 9.2 ML/day to approximately 24.0 ML/day in 2018 when operations in UG3 are near their northern extremity. Thereafter, the seepage rate is predicted to decline to a rate of about 8 ML/day at the end of mining in 2029-2030 and declining exponentially thereafter. Occasional short term ‘nuisance’ flows of possibly up to 0.5 to 1.0 ML/day could be generated during mining if as yet unidentified water bearing structures like faults, shears or volcanic plugs are intercepted. Typically, such structures if intercepted in the Permian strata tend to offer relatively low storage that would be expected to deplete over a number of months. Longer periods are likely if the structures occur in the Triassic strata and become connected to the subsidence zone above extracted longwall panels. The reduction in aquifer pressures caused by UG3 and Ulan West operations will have an impact on groundwater baseflows to the catchments. At the close of mining it is predicted that losses to the Goulburn River catchment arising from the proposed mining, may be of the order of 0.11 ML/day while losses to the Talbragar River catchment may be of the order of 0.2 ML/day. These losses may increase further until recovery of groundwater pressures is substantially complete. However it is unlikely that the losses can be physically measured as they represent upwards seepage from hardrock strata. The losses would also be masked by the more conventional baseflows related to recharge and discharge of shallow weathered rocks and alluvial-colluvialregolith materials by rainfall events. The Drip is recognised as a an important natural feature which sustains groundwater dependent ecosystems. It is sustained by surficial and relatively shallow groundwater storage which is governed mostly by short term rainfall events that surcharge the shallow strata in the manner described above. Rainfall recharge and downwards percolation is intercepted at horizontal bedding planes which then transmit the groundwater to the unconfined rock faces along the Goulburn River gorge where it emanates as seeps and drips. During dry periods some seeps may cease to flow. Seepage that migrates past this shallow perched system, sustains the deeper water table and from numerical modelling, is calculated to be less than 5 mm/year or less than 1% of annual average rainfall. Depressurisation of Triassic strata in the area of the Drip has already occurred as a result of historical mining operations at UCML and no impacts have been observed to date. No impacts are likely as a result of future UCML operations which are moving northward and westward away from the Drip. 5.2 Loss of groundwater yield at existing bore locations Loss of pressure induced by mining within the hard rock strata is predicted to affect a relatively small number of privately owned boreholes that are identified on Figure 24 which shows all bores identified within about 5 km of the perimeter of the mine panels from DWE database information and bore census conducted by UCML. These bores are constructed in Triassic or younger strata. There are 11 privately owned bores identified within the 2 m drawdown contour (UCML owned bores plotted in green). This contour is judged to be a reasonable lower bound for impact assessments on the assumption that most water supply structures have sufficient submergence of the water yielding zone to accommodate loss of 2 m head. Yield in most cases would be only marginally affected. Of the 11 privately owned bores, 7 fall within the 2 to 10 m predicted head loss range. These bores are likely to succumb to some loss of yield. Of these bores, only three are in use and the remaining bores are either inoperable (3 bores) or cannot be located (1 bore). The remaining 4 privately owned bores, are located within the 10 to 20 m head loss range. This head loss is considered to be sufficient to either significantly reduce yield or to generate complete loss of yield. Mackie Environmental Research 28 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Vulnerable bores are highlighted in Appendix B, Table B1. UCML policy in relation to bore water supplies is addressed in the Statement of Commitments which supports replacement of loss of yield, most likely through new bore construction. 5.3 Change in groundwater quality It is unlikely that any regional change in groundwater quality will be observed in hard rock strata as pressures decline above and adjacent to mined panels. Localised change in salinity at depth, may be observed as groundwaters contained within different stratigraphic horizons mix within goaves and cracked areas, as is already evident from historical monitoring. Similarly, it is unlikely that any measurable change in water quality will be observed in the shallow unconsolidated alluvial aquifer systems since these are either remote from the longwall panel footprint (eg Talbragar River alluvium), and/or they are actively recharged by rainfall. Water quality in the underground operations is expected to be consistent with observed qualities. However, on cessation of mining, significant dilution is expected as Triassic groundwaters continue to migrate downwards through the subsidence zone to goaves and through to existing roadways and headings. Mine waters are expected to reflect a TDS range of 1000 to 2000 mg/l with increasing sulphate presence up dip. Triassic groundwaters typically range from 300 to 600 mg/l and with sustained contributions from these waters, mine waters in underground operations are expected to progressively dilute with an end water calculated to lie somewhere in the range 700 to 1300 mg/l. 5.4 Impacts on groundwater dependent ecosystems There are no identified groundwater dependent ecosystems within the project area. However any as yet unidentified local spring systems that might be present within the mine panel subsidence footprint, may be affected if cracking of the subsurface occurs in proximity to such features. 6. DWE LICENSING REQUIREMENTS Licensing relating to groundwater seepage to mining operations will be required in accordance with Part 5 of the Water Act. Consideration may also need to be given to offset arrangements for loss of hardrock baseflow to the Goulburn and Talbragar rivers. Mackie Environmental Research 29 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 7. GROUND WATER MONITORING The established groundwater monitoring networks must be maintained and augmented as mining operations expand to the north and west. Information should be used to validate and verify model predicted depressurisation of strata and seepage to the underground workings. Future groundwater monitoring should include: continued measurement of groundwater levels, pressures and water quality (EC, pH and major ion speciation) within the existing regional network of monitoring bores and an expanded network; improvements in measurement of groundwater seepages and water qualities (EC and pH) within the mine water systems for UG3 and the proposed Ulan West operations, in order improve prediction of seepage, contributions from different stratigraphies, and contributions from rainfall infiltration via the subsidence zone; compliance monitoring and measurement of any water discharges including quality monitoring of major ions and specific rare elements; adoption of data transfer protocols to convey monitoring data from the mine to DWE; annual reporting as part of licensing conditions. 8. IMPACTS VERIFICATION CRITERIA Future impacts assessment criteria should address the pressure regime within the coal measures and overlying strata. Vertical leakage in areas beyond the subsidence zone, from Triassic strata to underlying Permian strata can be estimated by interpolation of the pressure/water table hydraulic gradients and calculation of the leakage flux from measured rock permeabilities. This estimate can also be reconciled with the volume of mine water pumped from underground operations. In order to establish both the strata hydraulic gradients and the rock mass permeabilities it may be necessary to expand the groundwater monitoring network, particularly in the Ulan West area. The following recommendations are provided. Depressurisation monitoring should include: Installation of at least 3 multi level piezometer strings equipped with vibrating wire transducers (or equivalent) and distributed within the Permian-Triassic strata; Strata hydraulic conductivity measurement on rock core obtained at the above noted piezometer locations. Such measurement should comprise testing for intergranular permeability and effective porosity, and insitu testing for conductivity over selected intervals; Daily or more frequent monitoring of pore pressures and piezometric elevations by installed auto recorders in selected new piezometers in order to discriminate between oscillatory groundwater movements attributed to rainfall recharge or subsidence related strata movements, and longer term pressure losses related to mining. Three monthly or more frequent water level monitoring of the regional monitoring network (NMN) using automated monitoring apparatus in selected piezometers. The monitoring interval should be reduced when increasing strata depressurisation is evident from encroaching mining operations; Mackie Environmental Research 30 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Mine water seepage monitoring should include: Measurement of all water pumped underground and all mine water pumped to surface on a daily basis. Measurement should be undertaken using calibrated flow meters or other suitable gauging apparatus; Routine monitoring of coal moisture content delivered from the working face in order to more accurately determine the underground water balance; Routine monitoring of ventilation humidity Routine monitoring of any build in water storage in goaves. Water quality monitoring should include: Monthly monitoring of basic water quality parameters pH and EC in pumped mine water. Such monitoring may provide early indication of mixing of shallow groundwaters with groundwaters in deeper strata. While this process is expected within the subsidence zone, it may not be evident within the wider piezometer network at the leakage levels predicted by groundwater monitoring; Six monthly monitoring of pH and EC in the regional monitoring network (NMN); Annual measurement of total dissolved solids (TDS) and speciation of water samples in selected piezometers to support identification of mixing of groundwater types. Speciation should include as a minimum - major ions Ca, Mg, Na, K, CO3, HCO3, Cl, SO4 and elements including Al, As, B, Ba, F, Fe (total), Li, Mn, P, Se, Si, Sr, Zn; Graphical plotting of basic water quality parameters and identification of trend lines and statistics including mean and standard deviation calculated quarterly. Comparison of trends with rainfall and any other identifiable processes that may influence such trends. The monitoring network and monitoring programme should be reviewed on an annual basis to determine ongoing suitability and any proposed changes should be discussed in the Annual Environmental Management Report (AEMR). Impact verification analyses are already addressed within UCML trigger-response plan (TARP) contained in the existing groundwater monitoring plans. Actions could also include: Quarterly assessment of departures from identified monitoring or predicted data trends. The key data sets in this regard should be the mine water seepage rate calculated from the underground water balance, and the pressure monitoring data recorded within the NMN.. If the average daily seepage rate exhibits an increase beyond the rate predicted (allowing for 1.0 ML/day additional transient storage depletion), or if consecutive pressure monitoring data over a period of 6 months exhibit an increasing divergence in an adverse impact sense from the previous data or from the established or predicted trend (from aquifer numerical modelling), then such departures should initiate further actions. These may include a need to conduct more intensive monitoring (including installation of additional piezometers) or to invoke impacts re-assessment and/or mitigative measures; Formal review of depressurisation of coal measures and comparison of responses with aquifer model predictions annually. Expert review should be undertaken by a suitably qualified hydrogeologist; Mackie Environmental Research 31 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 8.1 Impact mitigation measures Mitigative measures for any identified negative impacts beyond those predicted, may include replacement of water supply or relinquishment of groundwater or surface water allocations as an offset. Mackie Environmental Research July 2009 REFERENCES: ANZECC, 2000, Australian water quality guidelines for fresh and marine waters. Aust & New Zealand Env. Conservation Council. Coffey Partners International. 1991. Hydrogeological Study No.3 and No.4 Underground Mines. Report No. Z60/7-AB compiled for UCML. April.1991 Coffey Geosciences. 2005b. Spring Gully Fault Pump Test, Ulan Coal Mine, Ulan, NSW. Report No. S21754/06-AA. December 2005. Coffey Geotechnics. 2007c. Subsidence Management Plan Longwall Panels W2 and W3, Ulan Coal Mine, Ground and Surface Water Assessment. Report No. GEOTLCOV21754AA-AN. December. Coffey Geotechnics, 2008a. Goulburn River diversion – baseline assessment. report. Report compiled for UCML, May, 2008. Groundwater Coffey Geotechnics, 2008b. Groundwater modelling study – Ulan Coal Mine. Final report. Report compiled for UCML, Sep., 2008. Eckhardt, K, 2005. How to construct recursive digital filters for baseflow separation. Hydrological Processes, Vol.19, 2005 Forster, I, B. 1995. Impact of underground mining on the hydrogeological regime, Central Coast NSW. AGS, 1995. Geotechnical Consulting Services (GCS). 2000. Review of Underground Water Management with Respect to Road Construction. Report prepared for UCML, August HLA-Envirosciences Pty Ltd. 2001. Water Management Plan, ML1468 Underground Mine Expansion, Ulan Coal Mine, Revision 1. April. Hydrogeologic Inc. 1996. Modflow-Surfact user manual. Long J.C., J.S. Remer, C.R. Wilson, P.A. Witherspoon, 1982. Porous media equivalents for networks of discontinuous fractures. Water Resources Research, Vol.18-3 Moolarben, Coal Mines, 2006. Moolarben Coal Project – Environmental Impact Assessment (Appendix 5). Compiled by Moolarben Coal Mines, 2006 National Centre for Groundwater Management. 1998. Ulan Groundwater Model. Report No. C97/44007b. February 1998. Mackie Environmental Research 32 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 Parsons Brinckerhoff Australia. 2006. Ulan groundwater model - Investigation of mine development and dewatering from the Ulan Seam. December 2006. Schmidt PW. 1996. Stress orientation from drill core – does it work ?. Symposium on Geology in Longwall Mining, 12-13 November, pp 257-267. SCT, 2007a. Geotechnical testing and analysis of rock samples for Ulan DDH242 and DDH243. Report compiled for UCML, Jan. 2007. SCT, 2007b. Subsidence assessment for longwalls W2 and W3 at Ulan Coal Mine. Report compiled for UCML, June 2007. SCT, 2007c. Near-goaf hydrogeology project – Hydrogeological measurements at sites A, B and C to end of longwall 23. Draft report compiled for UCML, October 2007. Safe Production Solutions (SPS). 2003. Water Balance – Letter Report. Report compiled for UCML. Umwelt Australia Ltd., 2009. Ulan Coal Continued Operations. Surface water assessment. Report prepared for UCML, July 2009. Wilpinjong Coal Mine, 2005. Wilpinjong Coal Project – Environmental Impact Assessment (Appendix B). Compiled by Wilpinjong Coal Mine, 2005. Yoo EK, West P, and Bradley G. 1983. Geology and coal resources of the Coolah-BinnawayMendooran Area (Goulburn River – Binnaway drilling programme - Authorisation 286). NSW Department of Mineral Resources, Coal Geology Branch. Report No. GS1983/154. Mackie Environmental Research 33 ULAN COAL – CONTINUED OPERATIONS: GROUNDWATER ASSESSMENT – JULY 2009 IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT YOUR HYDROLOGICAL REPORT Mackie Environmental Research (MER) has applied skills, standards and workmanship expected of Chartered Professionals in the preparation of this report, the content of which is governed by the scope of the study and the database utilised in generating outcomes. In respect of the database underpinning the study, MER notes that historical data is often obtained from different sources including clients of MER, Government data repositories, public domain reports and various scientific and engineering journals. While these sources are generally acknowledged within the report, the overall accuracy of such data can vary. MER conducts certain checks and balances and employs advanced data processing techniques to establish broad data integrity where uncertainty is suspected. However the application of these techniques does not negate the possibility that errors contained in the original data may be carried through the analytical process. MER does not accept responsibility for such errors. It is also important to note that in the earth sciences more so than most other sciences, conclusions are drawn from analyses that are based upon limited sampling and testing which can include drilling of exploration and test boreholes, flow monitoring, water quality sampling or many other types of data gathering. While conditions may be established at discrete locations, there is no guarantee that these conditions prevail over a wider area. Indeed it is not uncommon for some measured geo-hydrological properties to vary by orders of magnitude over relatively short distances or depths. In order to utilize discrete data and render an opinion about the overall surface or subsurface conditions, it is necessary to apply certain statistical measures and other analytical tools that support scientific inference. Since these methods often require some simplification of the systems being studied, results should be viewed accordingly. Importantly, predictions made may exhibit increasing uncertainty with longer prediction intervals. Verification therefore becomes an important post analytical procedure and is strongly recommended by MER. This report, including the data files, graphs and drawings generated by MER, and the findings and conclusions contained herein remain the intellectual property of MER. A license to use the report is granted to Ulan Coal Mines Limited for the Ulan Coal Project. The report should not be used for any other purpose than that which it was intended and should not be reproduced, except in full. MER also grants Ulan Coal Mines Limited a licence to access, use and modify the data files supporting the groundwater model described in this report. Ulan Coal Mines must not permit any third party to use or modify these data files without obtaining the prior written consent of MER. Dr. C. Mackie CP. Env Mackie Environmental Research 34
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