1
URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING POLICY
2013-2018
2
Agenda
I.
Federal Urban Development and Housing Policy
II.
Importance of the housing sector for the Federal Government
III.
Political stability and governance
IV.
Economic stability
V.
Sound institutional framework
VI.
Housing demand
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
VIII. Housing supply
IX.
Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
X.
New institutional framework and coordination with state and local authorities
XI.
Final remarks
3
I. Federal Urban Development and Housing Policy
On February 11th, President Peña Nieto
announced the new government’s Urban
Development and Housing Policy guiding
principles:
Main goal: To make decent and dignified housing available for all.
Housing policy will be a fundamental piece of urban development policy, in the pursuit
of, not only housing, but also greater quality of life.
 In order to achieve this goal, four strategies were defined:
1. Advance enhanced coordination of urban planning and housing institutions
2. Evolve towards a sound and sustainable urban development model
3. Reduce housing deficit
4. Procure high-quality, competitive and sustainable housing solutions
4
4
II. Importance of the housing sector for the Federal
Government
•
The government acknowledges that the housing industry is one of the main economic
activities in Mexico
•
The construction industry is driven by two main forces: infrastructure and housing
construction, which together represent 6.23% of total GDP
•
Housing is one of the main sources of job creation, with an impact in over 28 industrial
sectors
•
It is a very well developed industry, with approximately 1,200 large, medium and small
firms located all over the country
•
•
The government is committed to support the industry,
maintaining a constant flow of loans and subsidies, and
defining a clear set of rules to provide certainty over the
medium and long term
The new housing policy guarantees that the industry
continues to play a leading role in the economy through
housing production
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5
III. Political stability and governance
Legitimacy
– Democratically elected government
– Smooth and coordinated transition
Governance
Efficiency
The historic Pacto por México, signed
by three major parties, makes it
feasible to approve and execute
structural reforms, such as:
– Telecommunications
– Tax reform
– Energy
– Transparency
During its first 100 days this Administration has
achieved substantial change:
–
Labor reform (setting new paradigms for the first
time since 1970)
– Education (guarantees quality and proper oversight of
teachers)
– Reform to the Federal Legislation on Public
Administration (brings together land, urban
development and housing policy)
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6
IV. Economic stability
“By the end of this decade
Mexico will probably be
among the world’s ten biggest
economies”
• Stable macroeconomic markers
• Higher GDP growth rates are expected
The Economist, Nov 24th, 2012
• Steady foreign investment flows
“Which country will become the
more dominant economic power
in the 21st century? I now have
the answer: Mexico”
• Job growth derived from recent reforms to the
Federal Labor Act
• Control over inflation rates that shields workers’
purchasing power
New York Times, Feb 23rd, 2013
3-year
Average
2013
(estimated)
2014
(estimated)
Inflation
3.93 *
3.67**
3.66**
GDP annual growth
4.36***
3.55**
4.03**
Unemployment rate
5.03***
4.51**
4.17**
Source: *Banco de México; **Banco de México, Encuesta sobre las expectativas de
los especialistas en la economía del sector privado, January 2013; ***INEGI.
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V. Sound institutional framework
• A different institutional design was proposed by this Administration to benefit the sector.
This design brings housing agencies under one single leadership allowing for greater
coordination
• Each Housing agency’s nature and legal mandate is maintained They will continue to
address housing needs as before, simultaneously seeking stronger funding solutions.
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V. Sound institutional framework
• Housing agencies maintain financial health and pay close attention to income streams.
Estimated Income INFONAVIT 2012 - 2021
140,779
149,158
162,054
175,309
189,275
204,262
209,756
231,519
252,529
274,904
22,584
5,150
10,000
5,300
10,000
5,455
10,000
5,623
-
11,947
-
16,844
-
-
5,052
10,000
4,239
10,000
4,830
10,000
75,688
82,884
93,047
140,416 152,010
127,990
103,832 115,439
50,039
52,035
54,177
56,327
58,536
60,817
63,717
67,562
71,680
76,088
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Contributions workers
with nosin
mortgage
Aportaciones
Cotizantes
Crédito
Recuperación
de Cartera
Collection on loans
AdditionalAlternas
funding sources
Fuentes
de Financiamiento
Otros
Ingresos
Other (fees,
interest income)
Source: Infonavit, Financial Plan 2012-2016
164,005
176,232
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V. Sound institutional framework
• Housing agency loan recovery strategies continue to show positive results
Non-performing loan ratio for mortgage lending
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2001
2002
Infonavit
2003
2004
2005
Fovissste
2006
2007
2008
2009
Bancos
Private Banks
Source: CONAVI with data from housing institutions. Banks and Sofoles obtained from Central Bank.
FOVISSSTE registers non-performing loans as of 2007. NPLs do not include off-balance portfolio.
2010
2011
2012
Sofoles/Sofomes
10
10
VI. Housing demand
The government has identified underserved segments of the population that can be
incorporated into mainstream financial products.
• Sate and municipal workers, including members of police forces (1.8 million)
• Small taxpayers: Independent professionals, small businesses and selfemployed workers
• More affiliated workers for housing agencies due to growth in formal
employment given structural reforms foreseen in the Pacto por México 
energy, labor and telecommunications
Expected growth in formal employment
(number of jobs)
2013
(expected)
2014
(expected)
649,000
705,000
Source: Banco de México, Encuesta sobre
las expectativas de los especialistas en
economía del sector privado, january2013
“The Central Bank’s board has
decided to increase the 2014 job
creation forecast to a range of 700
to 800 thousand new jobs”
Agustín Carstens, february 14th, 2013
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VI. Housing demand
• There are three main sources that
contribute to housing demand
Millions of housing units in need of
improvement or expansion
6.2
Rural
5.6
some of these to be
replaced by new
homes
Urban
1
a
Housing units in need
of improvement or
extension
• 5.6 million units in urban areas require
improvement or expansion
• Some of these can be replaced by new
units
• Assuming that 20% of deteriorated units
are replaced with new units:
Potential
1.12 million new
demand a: units in urban areas
Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010.
1. Locations with population over 15 thousand
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VI. Housing demand
Millions of housing units
that need to be replaced
1.5
Rural
Urban
1
b
Housing units that need to
be replaced
• 1.3 million units in urban areas are
extremely damaged or suffer from
overcrowding
• These units need to be replaced with new
units
1.3
Potential
1.3 million new
demand b: units in urban areas
Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010.
1. Locations with population over 15 thousand
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VI. Housing demand
Period
Annual average
incremental housing
demand
2011 - 2015
583,621
2016 - 2020
569,692
2021 - 2025
531,601
2026 - 2030
466,775
Source: CONAPO
c
Housing demand due to
population growth
• Over the next 20 years, 10.7 million units
will be required to cope with population
growth
• 557 thousand units will be needed every
year during the course of this
Administration, of which 369 thousand are
located in urban areas
Potential
demand c:
(2013 – 2018)
Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010.
1. Locations with population over 15 thousand
2.21 million new
units in urban
areas
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VI. Housing demand (new units in urban areas)
•
Over the next 6 years, cities with population over 15 thousand will demand 4.63 million new units (3)
•
Of these, around 60% of potential consumers currently have access to formal financing channels to
obtain a mortgage(1)
•
As we make progress , improving labor conditions for informal jobs (2), the housing consumer base
with access to mortgages will be expanded
Households with access to
financing
a
b
c
Households without
access to financing
Total
(million) (3)
(million housing units) (1)
(million housing units) (2)
Units in need of
improvement or expansion
0.67
0.45
1.12
Units that need replacement
0.78
0.52
1.3
Units to cope with
population growth
2013-2018
1.33
0.88
2.21
2.78
1.85
4.63
TOTAL
463 thousand / year
Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010.
Housing policy goal
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VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
• Housing agencies will maintain their loan origination pace
Sources of income
guaranteed by law
No change in
operating rules this
year
Financial health
Steady flow of
financing for
new units
• Loan origination programs are operating as usual and are guaranteed to continue to do so
for years to come
• In fact, INFONAVIT and FOVISSSTE started 2013 with better-than-expected results and
performed better compared to 2012 on a year-over-year basis
• During government transition, the housing industry requested support from the new
administration to reinforce financial liquidity. Hence, a special program was announced,
which generated a spillover of 6,000 million pesos from December to February. (5,000
million through INFONAVIT loans and 1,000 million through CONAVI subsidies)
Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010.
1. Locations with population over 15 thousand
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VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
• President Peña Nieto announced a 2013 goal of over one million housing initiatives, including
500 thousand targeted to new housing units
Institution
Banca***
Sofoles***
Total
Housing acquisition
New units
Used units
GOALS 2013
Improvements
Autoproduction
and expansion
Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies
Total
Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies
Investment
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
(Million pesos)
310
145
90
NA
545
123,471
57
18
0.1
NA
75
38,021
19
NA
65
NA
84
2,132
70
10
68
17
165
5,788
3
1
120
40
164
5,000
98
3
560
ND
ND
174
ND
ND
343
NA
NA
57
98
3
1,134
88,000
1,260
263,672
Source: CONAVI based on figures from each institution .* The “Renueva Tu Hogar” or Improve your Home Program is 100% bank funding **
CONAVI self-construction includes self construction, land with services, and Renovation. Note: FONHAPO does not break down housing 17
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programs in acquisition.*** Financial entities do not break their housing acquisition figures in new and used housing units
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
•
5,787 million pesos authorized by Congress to fund low-income household subsidies
•
67% of this budget will be applied towards new home acquisition (3,873 million pesos)
•
This will allow for the construction of 69,790 new units
•
Each federal subsidy (around 55 thousand pesos)
stimulates an investment of 190 thousand pesos for a
loan and 10 thousand in savings (down payment)
•
Vertical construction will be a priority, taking 50% of
available funds, the remaining can be applied to
horizontal construction
•
Subsidies are flowing according to plan in 2013
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VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
• The Federal Government has already started creating the implementation tools to meet
Housing Policy goals
• To promote greater participation by private bank in mortgage lending, on March 6th the
Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian, Territorial and Urban Development and SHF
made a joint announcement to launch new financial products to serve industry needs
• One of these is a first-loss guarantee program aimed to cover:
• Mortgages for individuals unaffiliated to Housing Funds
Guarantee fund
Financial
institutions
• Construction loans for new housing projects
Guarantee fund
Financial
institutions
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VII. Availability of loans and subsidies
•
In order to benefit the Open Market, SHF will seek to stimulate the mortgage
industry in order to reduce the housing deficit, through granting its Mortgage
Guarantee with the following benefits
SHF Mortgage
Guarantee
Diminishes the risk of
financial institutions
Improves general credit
conditions to final customers
The product was unveiled two years ago. To boost the mortgage flow, the product
was improved as follows:
1. Percentage increase of first loss guarantee (up to 30%)
2. Improvement of the operation processes to deliver an efficient product to
Financial Intermediaries, mainly Banks.
•
The product will be launched under the name of SHF’s Mortgage Guarantee,
whereby there is an expected economic flow of 12,000 mortgage loans through
banks in 2013 with an estimated amount of $4,600 million pesos
•
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VIII. Housing supply
• A new urban growth model aimed to contain sprawl and consolidate inner-cities. This
model allows for an optimum use of existing infrastructure, services and land
exploitation.
• Housing units should avoid overcrowding and guarantee access to basic
infrastructure. Houses should have at least two rooms and decent surroundings.
• Verticality will be prioritized in order to increase density in urban centers.
• Mexico is already recognized as a world leader in the incorporation of sustainability
criteria for low-income housing increasing property value.
• Transitioning from horizontal to vertical housing has certain technological, financial
and profitability implications over the current business model.
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IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
New Housing policy aims to:

Take advantage of installed infrastructure and urban equipment in the cities

Exploit vacant properties and urban empty land

Optimize land use increasing density and developing better recreational spaces

Improve inner-city neighborhoods by reusing deteriorated urban space

Dignified and sustainable housing

Competitive cities
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IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
The current Administration intends to maintain
criteria on urban perimeters
•
U1
DUIS -> DC
Defined based on employment indicators
(CONAPO) and demarcations by the Ministry
(SEDATU before SEDESOL)
•
U2
Defined based on availability of services and
infrastructure (source INEGI 2010)
•
U3
City perimeter growth based on population
In order to consolidate cities, in 2013 an
interinstitutional group will evaluate viability of land
reserve inventory in order to determines a new U3
perimeter in July.
Land reserves will be registered between March and
April 15th 2013
U3
U2
U1
SEDATU will design initiatives to
promote and support Certified
Developments (before DUIS)
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IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
Purpose.- « Transform urban development into a
sustainable and intelligent development model
Step 1
Based on voluntary registration of land reserves by homebuilders, there will be a National
Housing Registry processed by RUV (called RENARET)
Reserves will be classified according to their
current status:
R1.
Non residential reserves with no
infrastructure
R2.
Residential reserves with no
infrastructure
R3.
Residential reserves with
infrastructure
R4.
Residential reserves with I
infrastructure and housing
production
Land
Residential
Infrastructure
R1

R2


R3



R4



Housing

Based on currently available information, approximately
80% of land reserves are geared to urban housing
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IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
Step 2
SEDATU and CONAVI will analyze layers of information in
order to determine viability of land reserves
a.
Employment
b.
Ground transportation
c.
Protected areas
d.
Land use
e.
Risk factors
f.
Water availability
g.
Topography
Additional layers of information will be used to define areas targeted for
expansion based on expected population growth
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Example based on land reserve registry
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
26
Example based on land reserve registry
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves
R1
DUIS->DC
R1
Nueva U3
27
X. New institutional framework and coordination with state and local
authorities
The new Ministry for Agarian, Territorial and Urban
Development (SEDATU) will now lead urban and
housing policies and agencies
 Coherent programs and
actions regarding:
-
Land
Funding
Hounsing
Infrastructure
Environment
•
•
 Closer coordination with state and local governments to
- Standardize legal frameworks
Standardized
criteria and
procedures
- Improve management capabilities
Synergies
- Sign cooperation agreements to alling federal and
local urban and housing policy
- Red-tape reduction
- Modernization of property registries
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FINAL REMARKS
• The Federal Government acknowledges the housing industry’s fundamental role in the
domestic economy and for the achievement of national goals
• The new urban development model will be adopted in a context of certainty. President Peña
Nieto has repeatedly stated that “the housing train will keep forward”
• Housing agencies will not change operating rules for the remainder of 2013
• A new set of rules for 2014 will be announced six months in advance
• Existing urban perimeters used by CONAVI will be maintained; there will be no
harming retroactive initiatives
• The new National Private Land Reserves Registry in under construction. It will allow
the government to analyze suitability of new perimeters for urban growth
 A two-year transition period has been established so the industry can adapt to the new urban
development and housing model
 The National Development Plan 2013-2018 and Urban Development and Housing programs will
be released during the second semester of this year, from which strategies will be designed to
materialize the National Policy’s main goals
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Appendix
30
RESULTS 2012
Agency
Banca
Sofoles
Housing acquisition
Improvements and
Autoproduction
Total
extensions
New units
Used units
Loans /
Loans /
Loans /
Loans /
Loans /
Investment
Investment
Investment
Investment
Investment
Subsidies
Subsidies
Subsidies
Subsidies
Subsidies
(Million
(Million
(Million
(Million
(Million
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
(thousand)
pesos)
pesos)
pesos)
pesos)
pesos)
281
70,966.2
145
38,112.2
153
*
NA
NA
578
109,078.4
49
24,709.0
15
7,721.0
0.1
24.5
NA
NA
64
32,454.5
36
1,336.0
NA
NA
98
1,329.6
NA
NA
121
2,665.6
102
4,936.0
15
780.6
72
681.7
20
975.9
209
7,374.2
2
638.4
1
273.6
66
1,358.0
2
58.0
71
2,328.0
104
1
82,771
427
185,784
ND
ND
ND
ND
46,887.4
7
ND
7,825
ND
11,219
NA
NA
NA
NA
1,034
111
1
90,595
427
244,923
Source: CONAVI based on figures from each institution .* The “Renueva Tu Hogar” or Improve your Home Program is 100% bank funding ** CONAVI self-construction 31
includes self construction, land with services, and Renovation. Note: FONHAPO does not break down housing programs in acquisition.
Housing initiatives 2012 vs. expected 2013
2012
Agency
Financial entities
2013
Loans /
Subsidies
Investment
Loans /
Subsidies
Investment
(thousand)
(Million pesos)
(thousand)
(Million pesos)
490
118,000
545
123,471
75
56,000
75
38,021
98
2,171
84
2,132
181
7,496
165
5,788
ND
ND
164
5,000
138
97,298
101
89,260
280,965
263,672
32
Mexican homebuilding public company performance
700
50,000
45,000
600
40,000
500
35,000
400
30,000
25,000
300
20,000
IH
200
15,000
IPC
100
10,000
5,000
27/02/2013
14/12/2012
02/10/2012
24/07/2012
15/05/2012
29/02/2012
20/12/2011
06/10/2011
27/07/2011
18/05/2011
04/03/2011
0
23/12/2010
0
IPC: Mexican Stock Exchange Index
IH: Habitat Index tracking homebuilders’ stocks
http://mx.investing.com/indices/habita-historical-data
http://www.banxico.org.mx/SieInternet/consultarDirectorioInternetAction.do?accion=consultarCuadro&idCuadro=CF103&sector=7&locale=es
33
Number of housing starts
600,000
Housing units
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2009
Source: RUV
2010
2011
2012
34
Housing developers
2009
Homebuilders
419
2012
554
Source: INEGI Economic Census, 2009; National
Construction Company Census 2012.
Housing developers in RUV
1,417
1,364
1,304
1,296
2011
2012
1,159
2008
2009
2010
Source: RUV
35
Investment in housing acquisition:
new and used homes, housing starts and self production
Investment housing acquisition
(millions of pesos 2012)
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
Source: CONAVI with data from each institution. Includes new and used homes, construction on owned
property, minimal housing, and self construction. Data for 2012 Infonavit, Fovisste and SHF are as of
December and others until November.
36
Used homes
% of loans for used homes
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2002
2004
2006
INFONAVIT
2008
2010
2012
FOVISSSTE
Source: CONAVI with data from each institution. Used home financing as % of total home financing..
37