1899 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat Gwladys Lambert, J. Rasmus Nielsen, Lena I. Larsen, and Henrik Sparholt Lambert, G., Nielsen, J. R., Larsen, L. I., and Sparholt, H. 2009. Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1899 –1914. The population dynamics of the Norway pout stock in the North Sea are investigated by statistical analyses, and GIS of ICES International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) and Danish commercial catch data from 1983 to 2006. The stock spawns mainly around mid-February along the northeastern English and Scottish coasts and between Shetland and Norway. Sex ratios indicate that males, which mature younger than females (age-at-50%-maturity, respectively, 1.2 and 1.5 years), migrate out of the Skagerrak – Kattegat to the spawning grounds before females. There is a decrease in the 2+-group maturity ratios as well as in weight and female length from before to after spawning. The results indicate spawning mortality. Only some 20% of the 1-group reaches maturity in the first quarter, which is higher than assumed in the stock assessment. Although the maturity ogives are variable over time, this difference should be taken into account when estimating spawning-stock biomass in routine assessments. Growth is also variable, with a tendency for male maximum length to be smaller than that of females, and immature fish to be smaller than mature ones in each age group. The juvenile growth rate is higher when the stock density is low and results in a reduced age-at-50%-maturity. Besides these intraspecific patterns, the growth rates show interspecific links to stock sizes of the important predators: cod, haddock, and whiting. Keywords: density-dependence, intra- and interspecific growth, maturity, North Sea, Norway pout, population dynamics, spawning, spawning mortality, Trisopterus esmarkii. Received 12 April 2008; accepted 20 March 2009; advance access publication 8 June 2009. G. Lambert and J. R. Nielsen: National Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU AQUA), Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Castle, DK2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. L. I. Larsen and H. Sparholt: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, H. C. Andersens-Boulevard 44-46, DK-1553 Copenhagen V, Denmark. Correspondence to J. R. Nielsen: tel: þ45 33 96 33 81; fax: þ45 33 96 33 33; e-mail: [email protected]. Introduction The Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) is a small, short-lived gadoid, which rarely lives longer than 4–5 years (Sparholt et al., 2002b). It is distributed from the west of Ireland to the Kattegat and from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, as well as around the Faroe Islands. In this study, we focus on the North Sea stock as defined in ICES routine assessments as Norway pout in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat. The distribution of this stock is given as the northern North Sea (.578N), Skagerrak, and Kattegat at depths between 50 and 250 m (Poulsen, 1968; Sparholt et al., 2002a). For the Norwegian Trench, Albert (1994) found Norway pout deeper than 200 m, but very few deeper than 300 m. Neither stock separation nor spawning distributions are well known, but there is no evidence for separate stocks in the North Sea and the Skagerrak. Preliminary results from an analysis of regional survey data on Norway pout maturity (ICES, 2001; Larsen et al., 2001) gave no evidence for stock separation in the North Sea and the Skagerrak. A number of authors state that the stock spawns from mid-February/March to April (Raitt and Mason, 1968; Albert, 1994) in the northern North Sea between Shetland and Norway. In terms of the distribution of larvae and juveniles, Norway pout are generally not considered to have specific nursery grounds, but pelagic 0-group fish have been reported as being widely dispersed in the northern North Sea # 2009 close to the spawning grounds (Poulsen, 1968). Most of the larvae seemingly drift from the more western areas to which they return mainly during the latter part of their second year of life before maturing, and adults migrate out of the Skagerrak and the Kattegat to spawn, because there is no evidence of spawning there (Poulsen, 1968). Albert (1994) stated that the negative winter growth in the Skagerrak reported by Ursin (1963) and Poulsen (1968) could be explained by emigration of the species. There is no other indication of adult migration. For the ICES stock assessment, 10% of age group 1 and 100% of age groups 2 and 3 (ICES, 2007b) are considered mature and to belong to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB). As the stock density is driven by age group 1 (ICES, 2007b), the constant 10% of that age group becoming mature is a major parameter in SSB estimation and influences the perception of SSB levels and dynamics. However, Raitt (1968) observed that this ratio reached 60% for the 1964 year class, which indicates that the maturity ratio at age 1 needs to be studied and interpreted with care. Moreover, the population was extremely small in the early 1960s, and the 1964 year class showed a remarkably fast growth rate, so the minimum length at maturity did not decline (Albert, 1994), indicating possible density-dependence in growth and stability in length-at-maturity. This assumption needs to be investigated with the whole dataset now available. International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. Published by Oxford Journals. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected] 1900 Sexual differences in maturity, growth, and numbers are expected from indications in the literature. The maturity of the stock has not been studied systematically, and the differences between the sexes are not known. Female Norway pout are larger than males (Raitt, 1968), and several authors (e.g. Heesen and Kuiter, 1982; Cooper, 1983; ICES, 2007b) have reported a numerical dominance of females which, according to Cooper (1983), increases with age. At present levels of fishing mortality, the status of the stock is determined more by natural processes than by the fishery, and in general, the fishing mortality on 0-group Norway pout is low (Sparholt et al., 2002a, b; ICES, 2007b). The population dynamics of Norway pout in the North Sea and the Skagerrak are highly dependent on changes caused by recruitment variation and different levels of predation mortality, or other causes of natural mortality, such as spawning mortality (Bailey and Kunzlik, 1984; Sparholt et al., 2002a, b; ICES, 2007b). However, there is a need to ensure that the stock remains large enough to provide forage for a variety of predators, e.g. cod (Gadus morhua), whiting (Merlangius merlangus), saithe (Pollachius virens), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), and mackerel (Scomber scombrus; ICES, 2007b). Knowledge of Norway pout life history is needed in terms of spawning distribution, the short lifespan of the species, and potential indication of spawning mortality, as well as in relation to sex-dependent behaviour and intra- and interspecific densitydependence. Density-dependence has important consequences for fisheries management and recovery, as well as population maintenance or extinction (Minto et al., 2008). The results of analyses of variability in maturity and growth have been put into integrated perspective to reveal further information and to improve the assessment of the stock, as well as to give more precise knowledge of the population dynamics in the context of potential density-dependence and spawning mortality. The current study is aimed at testing a number of null hypotheses: (H0 1) the exact time and the location of Norway pout spawning is not known; (H0 2) the constant value of 10% is a good representation of the maturity proportion at age 1 during Q1 for both sexes, and all older age groups are mature; (H0 3) there is no area- or sex-dependence of the stock in terms of growth or maturity; (H0 4) there is no consistency or link between mortality and growth/maturity trends; and (H0 5) there is no density-dependence, intra- nor interspecific, on growth or maturity. Material and methods Sex– maturity– age–length keys from surveys Sex –maturity –age –length keys (SMALKs) were established from International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data for the period 1983–2006. From 1983 to 1990, data were only available for quarter 1 (Q1), from 1991 to 1996 for all quarters, and from 1997 for Q1 and Q3 (Anon., 2004). Norway pout SMALKs and actual catch rates (catch per unit effort, cpue, in number per trawlhour) by length were used to estimate the sex–maturity –age – length cpue indices by year, quarter, and roundfish area (RFA; Anon., 2004) to weight maturity and growth data by cpue. These data were used to investigate Norway pout stock history traits. SMALKs were completed by inserting missing values where no cpue data by length were available. The southern RFAs 5 and 6 G. Lambert et al. were directly excluded from the analyses because the cpue values there were insignificant (Raitt and Mason, 1968). First, we checked whether ages could be established for the missing values in the age –length key (ALK). As most empty cells corresponded to the smaller length classes, we completed the blanks with age 0 for Q3 and Q4, when at least the two next length classes were determined as age 0, because recruitment takes place in Q3. The same reasoning was applied to age 1 in Q1 and Q2 because age group 0 has not yet recruited at that time. For the missing values in the bigger length classes or the length classes between two ages, age determination was not that clear and there were few fish in the dataset, so those data were not considered in the analysis (Table 1). Sex and maturity ogives were first evaluated separately. 0-groups were always considered as immature. For the other age groups, the samples were not always recorded by sex and maturity stage, making it necessary to select a threshold of relevance (see below) for the evaluation, to preclude noise in the datasets and misinterpretation. Data were redistributed according to the percentage of fish examined in the samples, first for the sex–ALK and then for the maturity –ALK. If a threshold of at least 25% of the sampled fish of one age – length class had their sex or maturity recorded, the sample was considered representative of that age – length class; otherwise the sample was not considered for the keys (Table 1). Several such percentage thresholds were tested, and those .25% led to the exclusion from the analysis of many sex– or maturity – ALKs and, consequently, many length classes with a high cpue. With 25% as the threshold, ,12% of the total cpue data (Table 1) were not considered (except areas 4 and 7). Therefore, applying the threshold of 25% allowed us to provide improved, but realistic, data on population distribution and limited the uncertainties without considering the weakest information in the dataset, where basing the output on a few fish yielded a lot of noise. The combined SMALKs, i.e. the keys considering both sex and maturity determination, were established considering only two stages of maturity: mature and immature. This two-stage maturity scale was preferred to the four-stage scale available from 1991 because it allowed us to use the full data time-series and to avoid introducing too many errors and noise in terms of misclassification. The four-stage standard ICES maturity scale (Anon., 2004) defines M1 as immature, M2 as maturing (either for the first time or in principle for subsequent spawning), M3 as spawning, and M4 as spent. For the two-stage scale used here, immature fish are still allocated to M1, but all mature fish to M2, so incorporating all fish assigned to M2, M3, and M4 of the four-stage scale. We note, however, that the numbers of M3 and M4 fish in the survey database are anyway very small, an insignificant proportion of the total sample numbers in the database. Growth data from Danish commercial catches and survey (IBTS) data Mean weight-at-age (MWA) is registered from commercial fishery catch data (1983 –2004, and the second half of 2006), but not during the IBTS, from which only length data are available. Data collected by the fishery could not be compared spatially with survey data because the area stratification differs between the data time-series. The areas of commercial catch data available were ICES Areas IVb (North Sea South), IVae (North Sea East), IVaw (North Sea West), K (Kattegat), and S (Skagerrak). However, few samples exist for IVb and the Kattegat, so we did 1901 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Table 1. Number of Norway pout sampled for the sex– maturity– age – length key (SMALK) from the 1983 –2006 IBTS by quarter and area, and the percentages of the cpue undefined (UK) and removed after redistribution. Quarter 1 2 3 4 Area 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 1 2 3 4 7 8 Aged sampled 7 945 4 136 5 289 3 086 1 495 1 112 560 1 748 1 003 839 793 279 163 83 6 837 1 682 2 409 971 282 1 209 510 2 138 989 630 681 121 334 Maturity determined 5 139 3 177 4 254 2 240 521 953 500 1 367 583 659 450 173 162 82 5 683 1 256 1 769 858 232 891 337 2 030 717 489 387 121 130 Sex determined 5 989 3 445 4 359 2 570 866 953 500 1 367 717 758 606 205 163 82 5 075 1 084 1 632 921 195 891 331 1 593 751 465 567 67 301 not consider IVb in our analysis, and the Kattegat data were merged with those from the Skagerrak. Moreover, as there are few observations of ages 3 –5 and no data at all for age 0 in quarters 1 and 2, we constrained our growth analysis to ages 1 and 2 in terms of the commercial data. Mean length-at-age (MLA) information was obtained from ICES IBTS survey data for the period 1983–2006. Age group 5+ fish were not considered because there were too few data, and only a few of the fish sampled had attained 3 or 4 years. Using the completed SMALK, values of MLA were computed by year, quarter, and area, and by sex and maturity where valid, weighting the length classes by the cpue of length classes. Potential spatio-temporal patterns in spawning and sex distribution A visual analysis (GIS) of precise locations of spawning fish (M3, i.e. “running” gonads) from IBTS data for the period 1991– 2006 was carried out to identify where and when spawning takes place. Mean maturity ratios by age and quarter for all four maturity groups, weighted by the cpue indices by length, were used to assess maturity trends during the life cycle. The SMALK combined cpue data were used to provide abundance indices by sex to explore spatio-temporal variation in the sex ratio and sex-dependent distribution over the seven RFAs investigated. Weighted mean sex ratios and weighted deviations were computed and compared (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995). Revised SSB and stock– recruitment relationships The SMALK combined cpue data were also used to compute revised SSB and SSB/R (recruitment) relationships using the Sum cpue 14 563 613 2 746 510 1 705 302 275 245 257 830 601 516 143 121 3 705 632 1 152 018 467 198 156 995 306 856 156 460 144 833 6 651 579 4 111 794 2 591 472 191 682 977 063 4 402 060 586 018 8 362 485 1 964 999 871 835 180 812 337 772 73 035 Percentage not aged UK 0 0 0 0.1 5.2 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 4.7 3.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 4.5 0 0.6 0 0.2 1.2 0 2.2 0.1 Percentage maturity UK 4.0 0.3 1.0 15.4 1.5 4.7 8.2 1.0 10.9 1.6 12.3 12.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.9 4.3 24.8 0 5.3 Percentage sex UK 11.8 8.1 1.0 8.6 30.0 5.1 8.7 1.0 2.3 0.3 1.1 23.0 0.2 0 0.1 0 0.8 0.4 11.9 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0.8 0 temporal information on maturity. Revised values of SSB were calculated using ICES stock numbers-at-age and, first, the mean values of MWA from the ICES stock assessment (ICES, 2007b) in quarter 1, and second, the mean values of MWA estimated from the commercial catch data, both using time-variable maturity ogives. To assess the distribution of the population between different RFAs, mean values of cpue per RFA were multiplied by the size of the RFA (=number of rectangles of 30 30 nautical miles; Sparre and Venema, 1989): cpue ¼ C qN ¼ qD ¼ , cpue A ¼ qN; E A ð1Þ where C is the catch, E the effort, D the density, A the area, q the catchability, and N the number of fish in the stock. Then, the numbers of mature fish in each RFA were calculated, assuming constant catchability, and the percentage of mature fish by age in the whole population applied to the ICES stock numbers to yield a revised SSB with realistic maturity ratios-at-age. The ICES SGRECVAP (Study Group on Recruitment Variability in the North Sea) has fitted different SSB/R relationships for the North Sea pout stock (ICES, 2007c) using the FLR Library in R. With the same tool for SSB computed from revised maturity data, Beverton –Holt, Ricker, and quadratic hockey stick models (http://flr-project.org/), and segmented regression, were fitted to the revised SSB/R relationships. The advantage of using FLR is that the starting points are precise points defined as default by the program for each model. For instance, for the Beverton – Holt model (hereafter, Bev–Holt) and for the 1902 G. Lambert et al. segmented regression (Seg–Reg), these points are defined as follows: Bev–Holt : a ¼ maxðRÞ þ 0:1ðmaxðRÞ minðRÞÞ b ¼ 0:5 minðSSBÞ; R b ¼ meanðSSBÞ: Seg–Reg : a ¼ mean SSB Density-dependence in maturity and growth ð2Þ ð3Þ The resulting fit, obtained after optimization by the maximum likelihood, was then compared using Akaike’s information criterion (AIC), a statistical test based on the deviance estimates d and allowing selection of the best fit. The AIC accounts for the deviance and the number of parameters estimated as follows (Burnham and Anderson, 2002): dðy; uÞ ¼ 2 log½ pðyjuÞ; and AIC ¼ 2k 2 lnðLÞ; ð4Þ where k is the number of parameters, and L the likelihood function, p(yju). Statistical analyses of the variation in growth, sex, and maturity dynamics The variability in our percentages of maturity and sex was studied by GLM analysis in R. The logistic model, where pi is a linear function of the explanatory variables xi, has been used (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995): pi logitð pi Þ ¼ ln 1 pi ¼ b1 x1;i þ þ bk xk;i : ð5Þ This produces a linear predictor not for p but for the logit transformation of p, namely ln (p/q) where q = 1 2 p (Sokal and Rohlf, 1995); the logit is referred to as the link function. The variance is the product of the variance function and the dispersion parameter, the latter being 1 for the binomial distribution. However, the models used do allow for estimating overdispersion. The spatio-temporal variations in MWA and MLA were first analysed visually to check for any evident patterns. Then, to evaluate variations in weight: MW Age þ Quarter þ Area þ first-order interactions: ð6Þ As the biological data generally do not follow the assumptions of normality and constant variance, analyses were performed on logtransformed MW, or GLMs with gamma distribution were tested. The stepAIC function in R returns a stepwise-selected model based on the AIC, and the best fit is chosen by the analysis of residuals (Crawley, 2007). According to the variability in MLA, different analysis of variance (ANOVA) GLM analyses were tested and performed in relation to quarter, area, and sex- and maturity-dependence. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters were calculated based on the equation LðtÞ ¼ L1 ð1 ekðtt0 Þ Þ; variable were compared and used in the context of possible correlations with maturation or density-dependence. ð7Þ where L(t) is the total length, L1 the maximum theoretical length, k the growth constant, and t0 the theoretical age at length 0. The curve was fitted by the method of least-squares to MLA data split by sex. Values obtained using a fixed t0 or by leaving t0 as a Intraspecific density-dependence in maturity ratio, MWA, and MLA were investigated through the possible influence of stock number (in the previous quarter) on the quarterly maturity ratio-at-age. This was done partly visually and also through GLM analyses. To compare the MWA with the occurrence of the main predators, the SSB estimates of predators from the previous quarter were used. Predator data originate from the MSVPA (multispecies virtual population analysis) estimates from 2004 (ICES, 2006). The outputs of the MSVPA give quarterly SSB of the main predators of Norway pout used to study the interspecific relationships. In relation to the comparison with MLA, SSB data from the first quarter from the ICES assessments (ICES, 2007b) were used so that data for more recent years, after 2004, could also be applied. The SSB estimates were used as further indicators of possible foraging strategy, because mature Norway pout can be assumed to be large enough to target small Norway pout. Visual inspection and GLM analysis were performed to check the significance of the different relationships tested. Combined patterns in growth, maturity, and density Following the analyses described above, the relationship between MLA and maturity ratio was evaluated statistically using a binomial model. Maturity ogives were evaluated to improve life-history knowledge and to understand and predict the link between growth and maturity better. They are logistic curves fitted to the percentage maturity data by length class or age group and provide the length (L50) or age (A50) at which 50% of the fish are mature, for each sex: logitð pÞ ¼ a þ b Age or logitð pÞ ¼ a þ b Length: ð8Þ L50 and A50 are given by 2a/b (Heino et al., 2002). The curves, and specifically values of L50 and A50 by cohort, were compared in the context of changes in the growth indices (either MLA, the increment between ages 1 and 2, or the growth rate from the estimated von Bertalanffy parameters) and intraspecific densitydependence (estimation of the correlation with recruitment). To test L50 and A50 trends and correlations, linear regressions were performed and after ANOVA, the significance was given by the p-values. Results Spatio-temporal patterns in sex and spawning distribution The weighted mean of the Norway pout sex ratio (females/females + males) does not differ significantly by age group (Table 2). The values computed for all years where all areas were sampled were: age 1, 0.49 in Q1 and 0.53 in Q3; age 2, 0.49 in Q1 and 0.6 in Q3; age 3, 0.48 in Q1 and 0.58 in Q3. However, the difference by area was significant, with a dominance of females in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat in all quarters (Table 2); the sex ratio there varied from 0.57 to 0.91. The mean weighted sex ratio at ages 1 and 2 decreased from Q1 to Q3 in the Skagerrak (including the Kattegat), but increased in the northwestern North Sea in general (Table 2). Some spawners (maturity stage 3) were sampled in all RFAs except 5 and 6 (Figure 1). Moreover, it seems that spawning takes place mainly in RFAs 1 and 3, around the Viking Bank and 1903 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Table 2. Mean weighted sex ratio (female) by area for each age and quarter, and the standard weighted deviation (NA, ratio not given when fewer than ten fish were sampled). Sex ratio age 1 Area 1 2 3 4 7 8 9 Q1 0.44 0.48 0.47 0.64 0.53 0.7 0.71 s.d.w 0.09 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.07 0.04 Q3 0.49 0.58 0.53 0.63 0.51 0.57 0.7 Sex ratio age 2 s.d.w 0.04 0.12 0.07 0.1 0.2 0.14 0.22 Q1 0.46 0.48 0.53 0.49 0.71 0.86 0.81 s.d.w 0.08 0.1 0.11 0.19 0.25 0.12 0.16 Q3 0.52 0.51 0.66 0.67 0.25 0.67 0.7 Sex ratio age 3 s.d.w 0.07 0.12 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.07 0.09 Q1 0.48 0.49 0.59 0.48 NA 0.78 0.91 s.d.w 0.1 0.27 0.19 0.33 NA 0.07 0.11 Q3 0.42 0.62 NA 0.76 NA 0.69 NA s.d.w 0.18 0.12 NA 0.33 NA 0.15 NA The emboldened values reflect high levels in areas 8 and 9. Figure 1. Distribution and numbers of spawning Norway pout collected during the ICES IBTS surveys (GOV and GRT Trawls) between 1983 and 2007 (values are sums of all fish observed for all quarters). 1904 G. Lambert et al. Figure 2. Percentage of each maturity stage (1 – 4) of Norway pout per age and quarter, based on data collected in areas 1 – 4 and 7 between 1991 and 1997. along the Scottish east coast. Spawners were also observed in RF7, next to the Norwegian coast, at the boundary of RFAs 1 and 2. Throughout the 15 years of surveys, only a few spawning Norway pout were found in the Skagerrak (RFA 8). The distribution indicates that there might be some combined depth- and age-dependent patterns in spawning. None of the sampled spawning fish aged 1 were in RFAs 1, 7, or 8, though a few were observed in the more southern areas along the northern English coast in shallow water of 50 –100 m. Ages 2 and 3 were found everywhere, including in open-sea areas. However, these results are only indicative because of the limited number of observations of M3 fish overall. No further comment is provided now because the aim of our analysis was to obtain information on spawning time and location and not to seek a hydrographic explanation for the patterns observed. Some 90% of the spawners were recorded during Q1; the balance were widespread during all three of the other quarters. From these direct observations, peak spawning is assumed to have taken place mainly in RFAs 1 –3 during Q1 of the year and to a lesser extent in RFA 7 (M3 fish were found there mainly during 1991). The combined observations on sex ratio and spawning time and area indicate that there is a possible migration of males out of the Skagerrak –Kattegat to spawning grounds before the associated female migration. This indication is confirmed below. Norway pout maturity All fish aged 0 in Q3 were immature (Figure 2), but by Q4, a few were maturing. For Norway pout aged 1 in Q1 –3, the maturity rate was 20%, but by Q4 the level of maturity had increased to 40%. Age 2 Norway pout were 90% mature in Q1, but just 70% mature in Q2 and 50% mature in Q3, but then 70% mature in Q4. Age 3 Norway pout were 95% mature in Q1, 75% mature in Q2, 65% mature in Q3, and 80% mature in Q4. All age 4 fish were mature in Q1, but just 5% in Q2, 10% in Q3, and 20% in Q4. The results in Figure 2 indicate possible spawning mortality because most spawning fish at each age were recorded in Q1 and the maturity ratio then decreased. Spent fish (maturity stage 4) were almost exclusively recorded in Q2 and Q3 (with highest levels in Q3). Based on L50 (selectivity), the patterns of declining maturity ratio over the calendar year and the scarcity of M4 fish are not expected to result from a size-selective fishery. Once all Norway pout had recruited (i.e. age 0 in Q4), smaller fish would probably not be able to escape more effectively than larger fish. These observations are in accord with the GIS observations and the observed quarterly variability in the sexual maturity ratio by age and area: a smaller percentage of fish was mature in areas 8 and 9, and the maturity ratio was low, except for age 3 in Q1 in area 8 (Figure 3). Statistical analysis revealed the difference by area to be highly significant (Table 3). Although these patterns are obvious in our results, variation in maturity was further investigated to show evidence of density effects influencing maturation through growth. The significant increase in the ratio of maturing fish at age 1 (p , 0.001) was driven by the recent years of low abundance and density (2003– 2005) in the period investigated (Figure 4); estimated values range from 9 to 36%. If these recent years are removed from the analyses, the trend is no longer significant. Although there is no 1905 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Figure 3. Maturity ratios for Norway pout in Q1 (left) and Q3 (right) after 1991: interaction age – area for males (bottom) and females (top). Table 3. p-values of the quasi-binomial distribution of models fitted to the maturity data for Q1, Q3, females Q1 (F Q1), females Q3 (F Q3), males Q1 (M Q1), and males Q3 (M Q3). Age Area Age:Area Q1 ,0.001 ,0.001 NS Q3 ,0.001 ,0.001 ,0.1 F Q1 ,0.001 ,0.001 NS F Q3 ,0.001 ,0.001 0.05 M Q1 ,0.001 ,0.001 NS M Q3 ,0.001 ,0.001 NS NS, not significant. trend at age 2, Norway pout were not always all mature, as currently assumed in the ICES assessment. This indicates that the variations we observed are correlated with stock density (Figure 5). When density is high at age 0 in Q4, the maturity ratio tends to be lower in the subsequent quarter, i.e. at age 1 in Q1 of the succeeding year (p , 0.01; Figure 5). The percentage of mature fish by sex, weighted by cpue indices, gives an indication of the ratio of mature fish in the stock. These percentages of mature females and males aged 2 in Q1 compared well with the pattern observed at age 1. The slope decreases significantly for males at age 2 when recruitment increases (p = 0.046). Even if the other relationships tested (e.g. age group 1 by sex, with recruitment from the previous quarter, for instance) were not significant, they showed the same trend of decreasing maturity corresponding to an increase in the levels of recruitment. The variability in maturity-at-age 1 influences the SSB and SSB/R estimates. SSB computed with the new estimates of maturity generally results in higher values than estimated with the Figure 4. Temporal variability in the maturity ratio of Norway pout during Q1 at ages 1 (left) and 2 (right) from 1983 to 2006. 1906 G. Lambert et al. Table 4. Parameters of four stock – recruitment relationships tested on the revised SSB data (see also Figure 7). Relationship Segmented regression Ricker Beverton and Holt Quadratic hockey stick a 544.09 796.58 84.56 544.10 b 0.1311 3.7266 0.0408 0.1285 r NA NA NA 0.042 AIC 50.52 51.10 50.19 51.53 NA, not relevant. Figure 5. Statistically significant intraspecific relationship between maturity ratio at age 1 in Q1 and the number of fish aged 0 in the previous quarter (sexes combined), and between maturity ratio at 2 in Q1 and recruitment of the current cohort (subdivided by sex). Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous lines, females. traditional 10% mature at age 1 and 100% mature at age 2 (Figure 6). The resulting SSB/R relationship still fits the Beverton –Holt equation best, followed by the segmented regression equation (Table 4, Figure 7). Both the segmented and Beverton – Holt SSB/R relationships show clearly negative trends in the residuals during the last 10 years of the dataseries, indicating overestimation of the recruitment compared with that estimated by the assessment models recently. Visually scrutinizing the fit of the curve (Figure 7), we believe that it is unlikely that the segmented regression yields a good indication of Blim (currently 90 000 t) in terms of the precautionary approach. Moreover, although Blim is estimated by ICES at that level for several stocks, there is inconsistency here for Norway pout: the Blim from the segmented regression is 131 000 t instead of 77 000 t when considering Bloss as Blim (Figure 6). Growth analyses The GLM ANOVA (Table 5) on log-transformed MWA data showed that the variability is explained by quarter, age, and area factors, and the interactions quarter–area and quarter–age. Age 2 growth was slower than age 1 growth, and the MWA did not differ in the two northern areas but was higher in the Skagerrak –Kattegat (Figure 8). However, the spatial difference did not explain much of the variability, even if it was significant. Quarterly growth was faster from Q2 to Q3, and there was no evidence of an increase from Q1 to Q2 at age 2. Moreover, growth apparently decreased in area 4aw (northwestern North Sea; Figure 8), which can be due to either a loss of spawning products or spawning mortality. In terms of MLA in Q1 and Q3, the factors area, age, sex, and maturity were significant (not shown). All first-order interactions except age –sex and age –area explained the variation in Q1, but not in Q3. Immature fish were smaller than mature fish, both males and females. Mature females were larger than males at all ages, and spatial variations are highlighted by their higher MLA in RFA 4 (not shown), i.e. the southern area. In Q3, in addition to the higher mean weight observed in the Skagerrak–Kattegat, there was also a generally lower mean length. The trajectories of MWA and MLA exhibited similar seasonal and spatial patterns. Both were higher from Q2 to Q3, and thereafter the values were either stable, with a very small increase, or even decreasing from Q3 to Q2 the following year (Figure 8). The difference between the Skagerrak –Kattegat and the North Sea is clear from the evolution of MLA at ages 2 and 3 supporting the spawning migration hypothesis. Female MLA also decreased from Q1 to Q2 in the North Sea, weakly at age 2 and strongly at age 3. A similar seasonal decrease was clear in the MWA at age 3 (Figure 8). This decrease in the North Sea is not likely to be explained by the arrival of smaller fish from the Skagerrak – Kattegat, because of the scarcity of mature fish there and the widespread area to which they would be distributed in the North Sea, but rather by spawning mortality. When fitting the von Bertalanffy growth function to MLA, it was still evident that Linf was higher for females than for males (Table 6). However, it is difficult to compare the growth rate K by cohort, because there was correlation between the parameter estimates, making it difficult to distinguish true differences in parameter estimates, i.e. a variation in K can be influenced by Figure 6. Comparison between annual trends in SSB from the assessment (ICES, 2007b), with SSB based on maturity data from the ALK and SSB based on revised values of MWA from Danish commercial catch data and maturity ogives. 1907 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Figure 7. Fits of two stock–recruitment relationships: segmented regression (left), and Beverton and Holt (right). Table 5. Statistical parameters of the GLM analyses of MWA by area and season (r2 = 0.87 for the model; see also Figure 8). Analysis Intercept Q2 Q3 Q4 Age 2 Area 4aw Area SK Q2: age 2 Q3: age 2 Q4: age 2 Q2: Area 4aw Q3: Area 4aw Q4: Area 4aw Q2: Area SK Q3: Area SK Q4: Area SK Estimate Significance 2.06 ,0.001 0.45 ,0.001 1.08 ,0.001 1.23 ,0.001 1.13 ,0.001 0.01 0.81 0.14 0.01 20.45 ,0.01 20.72 ,0.001 20.73 ,0.001 20.30 ,0.01 0.07 0.38 20.05 0.51 20.04 0.59 0.02 0.79 20.09 0.26 variations in the value of t0 (Figure 9). When fixing t0 at –0.25, Linf remains higher for females, but the growth rate has limited variability and cannot be distinguished between sexes. Several indicators of growth were taken into account to analyse the variability related to density-dependence, covering MLA and K values from the von Bertalanffy growth equation with or without a fixed t0 value. With respect to intraspecific density-dependence in MWA, there was a general trend towards a density-dependent decrease in MWA, but only the relationship between MWA of age 2 and the number-at-age 1 in Q4 of the previous year was statistically significant (Figure 10). The trends in the relationships between K and the indices of stock abundance are the same with fixed t0 and with t0 considered as a variable. However, the decrease in female growth rate induced by stronger cohorts was only significant in the latter case (p = 0.009). Male growth rate was weakly negatively correlated with the increase in SSB (p = 0.05) with fixed t0. The same pattern in MLA was observed for male and female age 1 groups in Q1 Figure 8. Top panels: quarterly evolution of MWA at ages 1 and 2 in areas 4ae (eastern North Sea), 4aw (western North Sea), and SK (Skagerrak – Kattegat), based on data for the period 1983 – 2004. Bottom panels: evolution of mean length-at-quarterly-age (MLA by quarter, where age 1 in Q1 = 1.00, and age 1 in Q2 = 1.25, etc.) for males and females in the North Sea and Skagerrak and Kattegat, based on data for the period 1991 – 1996. 1908 G. Lambert et al. Table 6. Parameters and confidence intervals of the von Bertalanffy growth curves fitted to the overall dataset by sex with t0 as a variable or as a constant value equal to 20.25. Females Growth curve t0 non-constant t0 = 20.25 Age 0.3, length 10 mm Parameter K Linf t0 K Linf K Linf t0 2.5% 0.60 197 20.40 0.66 201 1.11 188 0.23 Figure 9. The von Bertalanffy growth equation fitted to data split by sex and cohort. Blue, males; red, females (fits made to variable t0). Value 0.71 203 20.21 0.69 204 1.16 191 0.25 Males 97.5% 0.84 210 20.05 0.72 208 1.21 193 0.26 2.5% 0.56 186 20.54 0.70 187 1.19 175 0.24 Value 0.68 192 20.32 0.73 190 1.25 178 0.25 97.5% 0.81 199 20.14 0.76 193 1.30 180 0.26 (Figure 11): MLA was significantly lower for the stronger year classes (female, p = 0.05; male, p = 0.03). At age 2, that trend was only significant for females (p = 0.04). Taken together, this shows weak intraspecific density-dependence in growth, but the analyses cannot distinguish whether males and females are similarly influenced. The results of the analyses of interspecific density-dependence using MWA data from the MSVPA show that whiting SSB is positively correlated with MWA at ages 0 and 1, respectively, in Q3 and Q4, and that, for cod, SSB is negatively correlated with MWA at age 0 in Q4 and with MWA at age 1 in Q2 (Figure 12, Table 7). MLA is correlated with whiting and haddock SSB (data from ICES, 2007b; Figure 12). When whiting SSB increases in Q1, Norway pout MLA at age 1 increases in Q2. The same correlation is negative with haddock SSB. These results demonstrate that the MLA and MWA values depend on sex and maturity stage as much as on geographic area. Moreover, the relationships between growth and population density and predator biomass have been shown without demonstrating causality. A combined analysis of growth and maturity in the context of density-dependence has been performed to explain the causality and the conclusions. Combined patterns in growth, maturity, and density Figure 10. Relationship (p , 0.01) between MWA at age 2 in Q1 and the number of fish from the same cohort in the previous quarter (MWA at age 1 in Q4). Figure 11. Statistically significant intraspecific density-dependence between (left) MLA at age 1 in Q1, and (right) MLA at age 2 in Q1, and recruitment of a cohort. Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous lines, females. With respect to the relationship between percentage mature and MLA, it is evident that, early in life (age 1 in Q1), more males than females are mature at length (Figure 13). In Q1, age 1 and 2 group female maturity and age 1 male maturity were positively correlated with MLA (Figure 13). The correlation was also slightly positive in Q3 at age 2 for both sexes, but not at age 1. Therefore, the correlations for both sexes at age 1 in Q1 are more obvious indicators that the growth of juveniles is a key factor in maturation and determines the age at first maturity. Age- and length-at-50%-maturities are good indicators of this trade-off between growth and maturity in terms of its relationship with stock density. Figure 2 shows that the maturity ratio decreased from Q1 to Q3, so when maturity ogives were fitted to the overall dataset, values of A50 and L50 were higher than those if only data from Q1 were used. Fits were based on Q1 data (Figure 14) to perform the analyses over the 23-year timeseries of data available (Q3 data are only available from 1991 to 2006). Visual inspection of the maturity ogives for males and females (Figure 15) indicates that males mature earlier (A50 = 1.2), and hence smaller (L50 = 11.7 cm) than females (A50 = 1.5; L50 = 13.1 cm), which explains why the proportion of males mature at fixed length is greater. 1909 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Figure 12. Statistically significant interspecific density-dependence for other species than Norway pout in MWA (top panels) and MLA (bottom panels). Table 7. ANOVA of the significant predator– prey relationships on the MWA of Norway pout. Parameter d.f. Deviance Age 0 Q3 SSB_Whiting Q2 1 1.16 Age 1 Q2 SSB_Cod Q1 1 0.45 Age 1 Q4 SSB_Whiting Q3 1 0.065 Residuals d.f. Residuals deviance p(>jChij) 18 1.28 ,0.001 16 0.84 0.003 18 0.25 0.03 When comparing the maturity ogives fitted to weak and strong year classes (Figure 15), there was an indication of intraspecific density-dependence for L50 and A50. Although the values of L50 and A50 for strong year classes were always slightly higher than for weak year classes (Figure 15), indicating intraspecific density-dependence, noise in the data precludes statistical significance. The plots indicate that the effect of density-dependence is most prevalent for younger fish (age 1; Figure 15). The significant intraspecific density-dependence for mature fish at age 1 in Figure 5 supports this statement. We also investigated whether the growth rate determined the age at maturity and whether Norway pout matured at a constant length. In terms of the relationships between A50, L50, and the growth increment (Figure 16), it would appear that variations in growth rate reflect similar variations in the other two parameters (Figure 16). Although the negative trend in L50 was significant for males (p = 0.044) and just marginally significant for females (p = 0.098), the increase in growth and decrease in A50 were not large. Moreover, A50 and L50 were not strongly correlated with the increment from ages 1 to 2 (not shown), for which none of the trends were significant. However, the ratio mature at age 1 was directly correlated with MLA at age 1 (Figure 13), indicating that when growth is faster for juveniles in their early life stages, the maturity ratio is greater in the first spawning period, but that subsequently the growth rate may differ and the relationship between growth and maturity-at-age is less obvious. Consequently, the values of A50 and L50 were compared only with MLA at age 1, which is considered to be representative of juvenile growth rate (Figure 17). The relationship between A50 and MLA at age 1 in Q1 decreased significantly for females (p = 0.001) and to a lesser extent also for males (p = 0.067). The decrease in L50 was not significant (Figure 17). The main conclusion from this finding is that the length at which Norway pout mature is not affected to a great extent by the growth rate; instead, they tend to mature at a fixed length. As growth is related to density and to confirm these results, correlations between A50 (or L50) and recruitment were also studied. The general trend was that when the recruitment of successive cohorts was strong, A50 and L50 tended also to be high (Figure 18), indicating intraspecific density-dependence. The trends observed here, even if not significant, confirm that Norway pout tend to mature at a fixed length, with a weak tendency to mature smaller when they mature younger in the periods of low stock density. This is more obvious for females, considering the significance of the correlation between A50 and MLA at age 1 in Q1 (Figure 17). Discussion H0 1: the exact time and location of Norway pout spawning is not known Our results have contributed to a more detailed understanding of spawning time and area for Norway pout. Most of the spawners sampled were around the Viking Bank and along the eastern Scottish coast during Q1. However, the area of observation did 1910 G. Lambert et al. Figure 13. Relationships between the percentage of mature fish and MLA (age 1 Q1 males: p , 0.001, females: p , 0.001; age 2 Q1 males: not significant, females: p , 0.001; age 1 Q3 males: not significant, females: not significant; age 2 Q3 males: not significant, females: p , 0.01). Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous lines, females. Figure 14. Maturity ogive functions of age [logit(p) = a + b age] (left) and length [logit(p) = a + b length] (right). Dashed lines, males; continuous lines, females; LC, length class. not include the Norwegian coast. Few spawners were found in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat, indicating that although spawning may take place in the area, it is certainly not an important spawning ground. It has been assumed until now that spawning is negligible there (Poulsen, 1968) and that the adult part of the stock migrates out of that area to spawn (Poulsen, 1968; Albert, Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout 1911 Figure 15. Maturity ogives by age (top) and length (bottom), and comparison between weak and strong year classes for each sex. Dotted lines, weak year classes; long-dashed lines, strong year classes; LC, length class. 1994). Direct observations of spawning are only indicative of overall general spawning intensity (Figure 1). It appears that age 1 spawning only takes place in shallower water along the north coast of England. We did not investigate the preferred depth and temperature range for spawning in the spawning areas we identified, nor was age-group composition studied. A number of authors (e.g. Poulsen, 1968; Raitt and Mason, 1968) has stated that the preferred depth of occurrence for Norway pout increases with age, which could be consistent with our observations. The actual decrease in the maturity ratio from Q1 to Q3 in age groups 2+ reinforces the hypothesis of spawning being mainly in the first quarter, and followed by significant spawning mortality. If there was no spawning mortality, higher frequencies (than actually observed) of spawning (M3 or M4) fish would be expected from the fishery or observed at least once during the long timeseries of surveys throughout the North Sea in Q1, which was not the case. The scarcity of M4 Norway pout in Q2 and Q3 and the total absence of M4 in Q4 can also be explained by spawning mortality, but a return to M2 cannot be excluded as a potential explanation. This means that the possibility of misidentifying M2 and M4 gonad stages also has to be considered. The present findings have been compared with the results from northern North Sea ichthyoplankton surveys (ICES, 2007a), which confirm the general spatio-temporal patterns of spawning. Norway pout larvae have been found in the North Sea during surveys from 18 February to 23 March 2004. Their eggs, observed over a large area of the northern North Sea, were found for 2 weeks, and the newly hatched larvae were not caught after 30 d (P. Munk, DTU-Aqua, pers. comm.). Furthermore, Munk et al. (1999) surveyed juvenile abundance of gadoids in the central North Sea and Skagerrak –Kattegat during annual surveys conducted in May from 1991 to 1994 by three international research vessels. Although there was great variation between years, juvenile Norway pout were generally abundant everywhere in the surveyed areas, so it may be assumed that the larvae found in the Skagerrak were brought there by south-flowing currents from a spawning area around the Viking Bank (P. Munk, pers. comm.). Consequently, we believe that it is reasonable to assume that most spawning takes place in Q1, possibly in mid-February, because no evidence of later spawning has been found, and around the 120-m isobath off Norway (along the Norwegian Trench) and the Scottish Coast (ICES, 2007a; P. Munk, pers. comm.). H0 2: the constant value of 10% is a good representation of the maturity proportion at age 1 during Q1 for both sexes, and all older age groups are mature The mean maturity ratio at age 1 in Q1, computed for the period 1991–1997, was 0.21, about twice the estimate used in the ICES stock assessment, and 2-year-old and older fish are not always mature. Consequently, H0 2 should be rejected. Spatio-temporal variation in maturity is an important concept, with high values 1912 G. Lambert et al. Figure 16. Temporal trends in the growth increment for each cohort from age to age+1 (cm year21), A50, and L50, by sex. Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous line, females. Figure 17. Correlation between A50 (left) or L50 (right) and MLA at age 1 in Q1. Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous lines, females. in Q1 for age 1 during low-stock-density periods from 2003 to 2005. These variations in the maturity ratio will result in varying estimates of SSB. The perception of the stock dynamics does not change but the SSB would generally be higher, especially also when considering MWA estimates from commercial catches. If the fishery is assumed to be unselective, the MWA from the catches would be representative of those in the stock. In this context, however, we should note that fishers are not allowed to fish in a large area along the Scottish east coast, the so-called Norway pout box (ICES, 2007b). Although variable maturity ogives do not change the perception of the stock, they would influence the precautionary reference points used for managing the stock. The new maturity estimates do not improve the stock– recruitment relationships significantly, and the Beverton – Holt equation still fits best. H0 3: there is no area- or sex-dependence of the stock in terms of growth or maturity Spatial differences were observed in both MLA and MWA, with two distinct patterns: a higher MWA in the Skagerrak and the Kattegat and a higher MLA in the more southern area of the northern North Sea, RFA 4. This leads to rejection of H0 3. Compared with age 1, there was a notable decrease in MWA in the western North Sea from Q1 to Q2 for age 2, which was obviously linked to spawning. In general, the lack of growth in weight from Q1 to Q2 and the observed decline in MLA from Q1 to Q2 likely indicate spawning mortality because the spawning and the loss of spawning products will affect the largest fish most, resulting in a decreased MLA. If the loss in weight was due, for instance, to food scarcity (perhaps leading to mortality), one would not expect a decrease 1913 Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout Figure 18. Correlations between L50 or A50 and recruitment number of the previous (top) and current (bottom) cohorts. Black dots and dashed lines, males; white circles and continuous lines, females. in MLA because of greater mortality among the bigger fish. These analyses did not give strong evidence of spawning mortality, but the results are still indicative of this, especially for females. Male Linf was in general smaller than female Linf,, in accord with Raitt (1968), and immature fish were generally smaller than mature fish. However, the growth rates, computed with the von Bertalanffy growth equation, could not be distinguished between the sexes. This would explain why males attain maturity before females and why males dominated the maturity ratio at age 1 in Q1 (to some 70%). This maturity ratio was not spatially equitably distributed: the Skagerrak and the Kattegat remain the areas with the lowest maturity ratios, reinforcing our theory of a spawning migration that is sex-dependent. The migration is especially obvious when studying the temporal evolution of the MLA from Q3 to Q2. The decrease in length in the Skagerrak –Kattegat suggests that mature fish leave for the spawning grounds (Ursin, 1963; Albert, 1994). As males mature before females and the sex ratio tends to decrease from Q1 to Q3 in the Skagerrak – Kattegat and to increase from Q3 to Q1, whereas the opposite phenomenon occurs in the northern North Sea, one hypothesis would be that males migrate to spawn before females and that neither return, possibly as a result of spawning mortality. Even if this suggestion is logical, however, one cannot be definitive because the weighted mean sex ratios computed here show high deviance and the results cannot prove what was assumed by Cooper (1983), who stated that there was an increasing numerical dominance of females with age. Moreover, these sex ratios can be skewed by vertical migrations, as already recorded for other gadoids, such as cod (Armstrong et al., 2004). H0 4: there is no consistency or link between mortality and growth/maturity trends Our combined study of growth and maturity has shown that the maturity ratio is correlated with the MLA at age 1 during the Q1. Engelhard and Heino (2004) showed that phenotypic changes in herring (Clupea harengus) growth can explain a large part of the variations in maturity of that species. Similarly, the results of this analysis indicate that Norway pout growth at early life stages is key to maturation. The trends in A50 confirm this theory because it is correlated with MLA at age 1, but not with growth rate determined by the von Bertalanffy growth equation or with the increment from ages 1 to 2. However, the L50 values do not show any significant relationship with any of the growth indices, but just a generally decreasing trend. This means that if a cohort of Norway pout starts with a fast growth rate, the fish will mature relatively early at a fixed length, which tends, however, to be slightly smaller than when they mature later. Looking at the combined results and also linking to hypotheses H0 1 –3, there are some indications of possible spawning mortality from: (i) the decrease in the maturity ratio from Q1 to Q3; (ii) the patterns in growth, maturity, and migration by sex, which indicate that fish possibly do not return from their spawning grounds; (iii) the decrease in MWA in the western North Sea; (iv) the combined patterns of decreasing MWA and MLA; (v) the greater mortality of older age groups (Sparholt et al., 2002b), and the fact that we did not find many 3+ fish in the extensive survey data material covered; (vi) the fact that there have been very few observations of spawning (M3) or post-spent (M4) fish, despite extensive survey effort and fishing activity in Q1; and (vii) the fact that Norway pout tend to follow an r-strategy (as defined by Pianka, 1970). This r-selection reflects early (young) reproduction, small body size, and a short lifespan. Although r-strategists are not necessarily semelparous or total spawners, they generally reproduce just once. The relatively high energy requirement for spawning and developing the spawning products could be the reason for greater mortality, or perhaps Norway pout become easier prey for other species when they lose the majority of their energy reserves during spawning. However, post-spawning fish have been recorded occasionally and, although it has been only a few such fish that have been documented and these may die subsequently from the energy loss through spawning or because of increased exposure to predation as a consequence of this energy loss, we do not have firm evidence to prove that they do not mature and spawn again later. Spawning mortality has also been implicated in the theory of probabilistic maturation reaction norms (Heino et al., 2002), which could have been an interesting concept to study to identify long-term responses of maturation to the environment as well as unexpected responses to fishing pressure (Grift et al., 2003). However, we did not have the data to test this for Norway pout, so we cannot ultimately conclude acceptance or rejection of H0 4. The subject is covered further in a sister manuscript by some of the present authors, and others, currently under construction. H0 5: there is no density-dependence, intra- nor interspecific, on growth or maturity Our study has shown only weak intraspecific density-dependence in growth and maturity, as well as in age and length at maturity, but the general trend is that both these parameters decrease with the number of fish in a cohort. Although these correlations could highlight a phenomenon of density-dependence linked to local aggregation (as for herring; Engelhard and Heino, 2004) or food availability, perhaps the reductions can be explained by density- and size-dependent juvenile mortality. The interspecific density-dependence in growth revealed a positive correlation between whiting SSB and growth, and a negative one with cod and haddock SSB. Cod and haddock being larger species probably 1914 target larger prey, whereas whiting likely target smaller Norway pout. However, other factors can influence these observations. Raitt and Adams (1965) compared the feeding habits of Norway pout and whiting and showed an extensive overlap between what 0-group whiting and adult Norway pout were eating. Therefore, even if adult whiting are important predators on small Norway pout (Jones et al., 1954; Daan and Welleman, 1998), the positive correlation between both could be due to simple food availability and the effects of competition for food lowering the MWA for Norway pout and whiting recruits. Depending on the strength of the stock– recruitment relationship for whiting, this could affect the relationship between Norway pout growth and whiting SSB. Acknowledgements This paper has been produced under equal authorship of the two first authors. We thank our colleagues at DTU Aqua: Peter Levy for statistical advice, Morten Vinther for the MSVPA data and discussion of results, Peter Munk for comments on the distribution of Norway pout larve and juveniles, Marie Storr-Paulsen for GIS support, Brian MacKenzie for editorial comments, and Mark Payne for the use of his FLR program for stock–recruitment, used at the ICES SGRECVAP. 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