The Multipurpose & Heavy Lift
transportation outlook
Breakbulk China, Shanghai
Tina Liu
By Drewry Maritime Research
[email protected]
20th March 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
2
Agenda
The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet
Cargo Demand
Competition
Outlook
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
3
MPV fleet age profile as at January 1st, 2015
3,000
20,000
18,000
2,500
16,000
14,000
2,000
1,500
dwt
'000 dwt
12,000
10,000
8,000
1,000
6,000
4,000
500
2,000
0
1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2-5,000
5-10,000
10-15,000
15-20,000
20-35,000
35,000+
Average dwt (RH axis)
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
4
MPV fleet age profile by vessel type as at January 1st, 2015
3,000
2,500
'000 dwt
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
Heavylift
1985
MPV
1988
1991
1994
Project Carrier
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Premium Project Carrier
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
5
Project carriers within the MPV fleet (‘000 dwt)
35,000+ dwt
Dwt Sector
20-35,000 dwt
15-20,000 dwt
10-15,000 dwt
5-10,000 dwt
2-5,000 dwt
-
1,000
2,000
Multipurpose
3,000
Heavy Lift
4,000
5,000
Project carrier
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Premium Project carrier
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
6
Fleet development by vessel type (‘000 dwt)
3,000
Scheduled deliveries
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Scheduled demolitions
2,500
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Multipurpose Vessels
2012
2013
2014
2015
Project carriers inc HeavyLift
2016
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2008
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
2009
2010
2011
Multipurpose Vessels
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Project carriers inc HeavyLift
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
7
Fleet with current orderbook, as at January 1st,2015
35,000+
dwt sector
20-35,000
15-20,000
10-15,000
5-10,000
2-5,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
'000 dwt
Fleet
OrderBook
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
8
Multipurpose fleet development to 2016 (‘000 dwt)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2011
2012
Multipurpose Vessels
2013
2014
2015
2016
Project carriers inc HeavyLift
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
9
Decline of simple multipurpose fleet
% Newbuilding deliveries Project carriers:
72% 2011 61% 2012
69% 2013 50% 2014
Average for the last five years: 63%
Average age of fleet sectors:
Simple Multipurpose: 17 yrs
Project Carrier: 9.5 yrs
Premium Project Carrier: 8 yrs
47% of vessels on order as of Jan 1st
2015 have confirmed heavy lift capability
MPV share of project cargo estimated to be growing faster
than share of breakbulk cargo
- in the short term at least
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
10
Suggested fleet development by vessel type (‘000 dwt)
3,000
25,000
2,500
2,000
20,000
1,500
1,000
15,000
500
0
10,000
-500
-1,000
5,000
-1,500
-2,000
-2,500
0
2010
2011
2012
PC deliveries (incl. HL)
MPV deliveries (not incl. PC)
MPV demolitions (not incl. PC)
HL demolitions
2013
2014
2015
2016
MPV fleet (not incl. PC, right axis)
PC fleet (incl. HL, right axis)
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
11
Agenda
The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet
Cargo Demand
Competition
Outlook
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
12
World economic growth (% change)
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
2011
2012
2013
Real GDP
2014
2015
2016
Trade in goods
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research derived from IMF
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
13
Suggested development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes)
8,000
1,400
7,000
1,200
6,000
1,000
5,000
800
4,000
600
3,000
400
2,000
200
1,000
0
0
2010
2011
2012
Total Dry Cargo
Total Container cargo
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total Bulk Cargo
MPV Market share (rh axis)
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research, WTO
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
14
Suggested development of general cargo market (million tonnes)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Non Container/ General Cargo
2014
2015
2016
Total Container Cargo
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research, WTO
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
15
Demand drivers:
Global crude steel production (million tonnes)
CAGR
14-17
2,000
1,800
1,600
China
7.2%
EU-15
1.8%
India
6.9%
Total
5.5%
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2010
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
2011
EU-15
USA
2012
Japan
2013
China
S.Korea
2014
Taiwan
2015
India
2016
Others
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
16
14,185
Major representative breakbulk routes for steel (‘000 tonnes)
11,461 11,264
3,428 3,644
5,593 5,697 5,726
2,618
4,900
3,582
Ukraine to Turkey
3,906
Japan to China
China to South Korea
Brazil to United States
3,713
4,105 4,245
South Korea to China
4,049
2,255
1,546
China to Philippies
2012 2013 2014
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
17
Seaborne trade in selected forest products (million tonnes)
CAGR
07-14
300
250
Wood chip
8.0%
Wood pulp
0.0%
Newsprint
-0.3%
200
150
100
50
0
2007
2008
2009
Wood Chips, Pellets, Fuel
2010
2011
Wood Pulp
2012
2013
2014
Newsprint & Paper Products
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
18
Major importers and exporters of wood chips and pellets, 2014 (million tonnes )
(a) Importers
(b) Exporters
Japan
China
UK
South Korea
Italy
Turkey
Sweden
Austria
Germany
Finland
Vietnam
USA
Australia
Chile
Thailand
South Africa
Indonesia
Canada
Russia
Brazil
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
19
Development of MPV market share to 2016 (million tonnes)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2010
Bulk cargo
2011
2012
MPV share of bulk cargo
2013
2014
General cargo
2015
2016
MPV share of general cargo
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
20
Agenda
The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet
Cargo Demand
Competition
Outlook
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
21
Competing market outlook
1,350
Estimated bulk carrier time charter
rates ($ per day)
1,300
1,250
1,200
20,000
1,150
17,500
1,100
2011
Handysize
Handymax
Panamax
Capesize
15,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
12,500
Weighted East-West container rates
($ per teu)
10,000
7,500
5,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
22
Competition: Correlation between sectors
One year time charter rates ($pd)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
2010
2011
Handysize
Trade Growth
2012
2013
2012
2013
13,500 dwt 1,000 TEU
2014
2015
2016
2014
MPV
2017
CAGR
Dry bulk
4,011
4,307
4,640
4,833
5,048
5,284
6%
Containers
1,527
1,586
1,668
1,756
1,853
1,967
5%
982
969
1,081
1,143
1,214
1,271
5%
MPV
Fleet Growth
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CAGR
Handysize fleet '000 dwt
78,600
81,700
86,800
89,800
94,300
94,400
4%
Containers '000 TEU
16,234
17,129
18,165
19,466
20,348
21,342
6%
MPV '000 dwt
29,105
29,608
29,512
29,507
29,551
29,576
0%
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
23
Agenda
The Multipurpose and Heavy Lift Fleet
Cargo Demand
Competition
Outlook
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
24
Growth in the fleet versus growth in demand to 2016
14%
12%
Demand growth slower over 2015
10%
8%
6%
4%
Fleet stagnates over 2015
2%
0%
-2%
2012
2013
2014
Fleet growth
2015
2016
Demand growth
Source: Drew ry Maritime Research
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
25
Conclusions and challenges
Steady fleet development expected for project carriers with
new investment in eco designs and high spec vessels
Demand for the sector continues to grow for both
breakbulk and project cargo
Encroachment by competing sectors still evident and
unlikely to wane in the short term
Project cargo expected to be adversely affected by lower
oil prices
© Drew ry 2015
Drewry | BreakBulk China 2015
26
Thank You!
Drewry was founded in 1970 as a provider of
independent information and advice to the global
maritime industry. Since then we have worked
with over 4,000 clients in more than 100 countries.
We are privately owned with research and
advisory teams in London, Delhi, Singapore and
Shanghai.
London
Drewry
15-17 Christopher Street
London EC2A 2BS,United
Kingdom
T: +44 (0)20 7538 0191
E: [email protected]
Singapore
Drewry
15 Hoe Chiang Road,
#13-02 Tower Fifteen
Singapore 089316
T: +65 6220 9890
E: [email protected]
Delhi
Drewry
209 Vipul Square, Sushant Lok1 Gurgaon 122002, India
Telephone: +91 124 40476
31/32
E: [email protected]
Shanghai
Drewry
555, 5th floor Standard Chartered
Tower,
201 Shi Ji Avenue,
Pudong District,
Shanghai, China 200120
T: +86 (0)21 6182 6759
© Drew ry 2013