Working Paper Series 2012/1 The Politics of Differentiated Integration in the European Union: Origins, Decision Making and Outcomes Douglas Webber www.monash.edu/europecentre The Monash European and EU Centre (MEEUC) Working Paper Series has been established to contribute to the academic debate on Europe, the European Union (EU), the EU in the world, and comparative regionalism. This online Series aims to showcase the work in these fields of both current and former staff, students and research/visiting fellows of MEEUC and Monash University. The Series provides an opportunity for scholars to receive feedback on work in progress, and most importantly, offers budding researchers exposure for their work. The Editorial Board welcomes submissions from professors, fellows, PhD candidates and postgraduate students. Papers may come from a range of disciplines, including but not limited to Arts, Business, and Law. For more information on submissions, visit our website www.monash.edu/europeacentre or contact [email protected] Monash European and EU Centre Monash University Caulfield Campus Level 5, Building H 900 Dandenong Road Caulfield East VIC 3145 AUSTRALIA Papers in this series: The Politics of Differentiated Integration in the European Union: Origins, Decision Making and Outcomes, Douglas Webber, Oct 2012 (2012/1) MEEUC Working Papers 2012/1 The Politics of Differentiated Integration in the European Union: Origins, Decision Making and Outcomes Douglas Webber INSEAD ABSTRACT Differentiated integration – the adoption and implementation of joint policies by fewer than all the member states – has been debated and practised in the European Union for more than three decades. This paper explores the origins, negotiation, adoption and outcomes of the principal projects of differentiated integration that have been proposed or launched during this period. It proposes an eclectic interpretation of the politics of differentiated integration, explaining the origins of such projects in constructivist, their adoption in intergovernmentalist and their outcomes in neo-functionalist terms. A necessary condition for the ‘success’ of differentiated integration projects – defined by the accession to them of more and more initially non-participating member states – is the support of two ‘big’ member states, normally France and Germany. Whilst Germany has typically supported both ‘sectoral’ differentiated integration limited to specific issue-areas and more ambitious projects aimed at reforming the institutional structure of the EU, France has supported the former, but in practice opposed the latter. In the politics of differentiated integration, functionalism has thus prevailed over federalism. Meanwhile, at the very moment when the UK’s self-isolation seems set to propel the EU onto such a trajectory, the simultaneous triple crisis of the Euro zone, the Schengen Accord and the ESDP (European Security and Defence Policy) casts a dark cloud over the future of the showcase projects of differentiated integration, not to mention over that of the EU itself. Introduction ‘From now on there are clearly two Europes’, said the French president Nicholas Sarkozy, commenting on the outcome of the December 2011 meeting of the European Council at which, in response to the British government’s rejection of a new EU treaty, most of the 26 other member states decided to adopt an intergovernmental treaty to enable the European Union to better manage the intensifying crisis of the Eurozone (Le Monde 2011). In fact, however, the apparently momentous decisions taken at the Brussels summit were only the latest manifestations of a trend that has marked the European integration process since the first oil-price crisis in the early 1970s. Since the end of the Cold War in particular, most of the biggest steps towards closer European integration have occurred in issue-areas – for example, monetary, justice and home affairs and defence policy – where not all member states initially participated in integration projects. This – hitherto relatively under-researched – trend towards differentiated integration is the topic of this paper. Its primary objective is to explain how some projects of differentiated integration were launched, why some were adopted and others rejected and, why, of those adopted, some failed, while others have succeeded, in the sense that more and more EU member (plus, in some cases, some other) states have subsequently decided to participate in them. By ‘integration’ I mean the adoption and implementation of joint or common policies by more than one national government. The concept of ‘differentiation’ refers to a state of affairs in which a given joint or common policy or project is adopted and implemented by fewer than all the (currently 27) EU member states. Several different kinds of differentiated integration may be distinguished. Multi-speed integration describes a state of affairs whereby a subgroup of member states aim to realize a common policy or project faster than the other members – who, however, will adhere to it at a later stage. Variable-geometry integration refers to a situation in which, even at a later stage, one or more non-participating governments do not intend to join a project launched by a subgroup of members. À la carte integration, as the term implies, refers to a state of affairs in which member states can ‘pick and choose’ which joint or common policies, or aspects thereof, they want to adopt. Differentiation in the provisions and implementation of EU law has accompanied the integration process from the start. Without it, Europe would very likely be a region much less politically integrated today than it is, as otherwise domestic political resistance to integration in some member states might not have been overcome. For example the tariff-free 4 importation of ‘dollar bananas’ from Latin America into Germany was such a sensitive domestic political issue there that it threatened to hold up the approval of the Rome Treaty in 1957. Agreed shortly before the approval of the treaty, the ‘banana protocol’ prevented the realization of a common banana market in the EU for the next 35 years (Cadot and Webber 2002: 24). Accession agreements with new member states have frequently authorized them – at least temporarily – to retain policies that did not conform to the existing body of EU law. The UK, for example, entered the EU in 1973 only after having negotiated special arrangements for the important of New Zealand butter, and, before its entry in 1995, Sweden had to be reassured that EU membership would not undermine its system of free collective wage and salary bargaining. Differentiation was not always limited to specific policies or issues. In the Benelux, for example, the EU contained from the outset a subgroup of three more tightly integrated member states that were already linked by a customs union when the Treaty of Rome was signed, dismantled border controls in 1960 and, in the case of Belgium and Luxembourg, shared a common currency. In these respects, differentiation was used as an instrument to facilitate the EU’s enlargement. Although its roots go back to the very origins of the EU, differentiated integration has become an almost perennial issue since the early 1970s, when, soon after each other, British entry and the first oil-price crisis occurred. The first of these events brought into the EU a country where attitudes to accession were more ambivalent and overall more critical than in any of the six pioneer member states; the second led to a growing divergence between member states in terms of economic performance – a trend which complicated and ultimately defeated the first efforts to forge closer European monetary integration. It is not coincidental that the first debate about ‘multi-speed’ integration was initiated in 1974, as the oil-price crisis hit Europe and the British economy in particular was severely destabilized. From this point, differentiated integration increasingly became a technique for resolving tensions between enlarging (‘widening’) the EU and ‘deepening’ it, i.e. forging closer integration. ‘Pro-integrationist’ political forces and governments increasingly resorted to threats that they would integrate more quickly among themselves if other governments tried to block closer pan-EU integration. In some – but not all – cases where these threats did not achieve their intended effects, pro-integrationist subgroups of member states proceeded to forge closer integration among themselves, either inside or outside the EU. Below I shall analyse the origins, negotiation, adoption and outcome of several attempts to forge differentiated integration in the EU. In the next section, I shall briefly review the 5 principal existing literature on differentiated integration in the EU. I shall then sketch out an ‘eclectic’ explanation of the pattern of evolution of differentiated European integration. In the following sections, I shall briefly describe the history of several differentiated integration projects, showing that whilst ‘sectoral’ projects have mostly generated very powerful centripetal effects that brought more and more originally non-participating states ‘on board’, projects that aimed to generalize this practice by creating a separate institutional infrastructure for a kind of ‘hard-core’ Europe have largely failed. The conclusion ties together the various strands of the preceding analysis and updates the history of differentiated integration in the EU to the current crisis. Differentiated integration: The existing literature and an eclectic analytic framework Differentiated integration has meanwhile given rise to a fairly substantial body of socialscientific literature (for just the most recent contribution, see Dyson and Sepos 2010). However, it has failed to generate as much sustained comparative analysis as its increased importance in EU politics would merit. The most useful contributions to understanding this phenomenon have been furnished by Gehring (1998) and in particular Kölliker (2001 and 2006). Both scholars develop an explanation of patterns of differentiated European integration rooted in public goods theory. Thus, for Kölliker, the outcome of differentiated integration projects – the degree to which originally non-participating member states adhere to them – depends primarily on the character of the policy or issue-area, specifically on the extent to which ‘outsider’ states can be excluded from the benefits of the envisaged public good. Policies that provide excludable network or club goods are most likely to generate strong centripetal effects that bring more and more originally non-participating states on board, while, in contrast, those that provide non-excludable goods, such as in particular common pool resources, either generate centrifugal effects or, given that states that otherwise support them anticipate this outcome, are not even launched in the first place. Hence, the Schengen Accord and the Euro proved to be very or fairly successful differentiated integration projects because they provided or were expected to provide excludable network goods to their participants – anticipated efficiency and growth effects in the case of the Euro and crime-related information – on wanted persons and objects and political asylum-seekers – in that of the Schengen Accord, whose core provision was the dismantlement of border controls. In contrast, putative plans for tax harmonization among a subgroup of EU member states were frozen because such a step would pose a common resource problem, in as far as the potential benefits of the policy in the form of increased tax revenues for participating 6 governments could leak to non-participating states that impose lower taxes (Kölliker 2001: 143-44). Kölliker’s public-goods-theoretical analysis provides a coherent and parsimonious explanation of divergent outcomes of differentiated integration projects in the EU. However, as Kölliker himself concedes, not all of these outcomes can be explained in terms of public goods theory. He is consequently compelled to fall back on ad hoc explanations of some outcomes, notably the Maastricht Social Protocol, from which the UK initially opted out before adopting it in 1997, and the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP) ESDP launched in 1999 to develop an EU military crisis intervention capacity (Kölliker 2006: 12837, 180-86, 233-42). These anomalies are largely attributed to changes in the fundamental preferences of governments, either through a change in their composition, as in the UK, when it adopted the Social Protocol in 1997, or, in the case of the ESDP, as a consequence of an external crisis, namely the wars in former Yugoslavia. Kölliker’s analysis also suffers from other drawbacks. First, the sample of cases of differentiated integration projects, although quite exhaustive, is not comprehensive. In particular, he does not discuss the fate of various initiatives that aimed at recasting the overall institutional structure of the EU in the direction of greater differentiation – that is at generalizing or constitutionalizing differentiated integration. Two such initiatives – the Schäuble/Lamers paper produced by these two German Christian Democratic politicians in 1994 and the Humboldt University speech delivered by the then German foreign minister and Green politician, Fischer, in 2000 – will be discussed below. These projects failed almost completely, despite the fact that their aim was to provide willing member states with an excludable public good, namely an institutional structure of their own to accelerate the pace of European integration. Second, his analysis addresses only a ‘slice’ of the differentiated integration ‘action’ in the EU – to what extent and why, once a project has been adopted, it generates centripetal or centrifugal effects. The initial willingness of a subgroup of member states to launch such projects is taken as a given rather than something itself to be described and explained, bar the contention that policies providing nonexcludable goods are unlikely to be adopted in the first place (Kölliker 2006: 46 and 87). Public-goods-theoretical analysis of differentiated integration blends out both the genesis and the processes of negotiation and adoption of such projects. Addressing these lacunae, I propose a different, eclectic analytic framework that distinguishes between three different stages of the ‘life’ of differentiated integration projects: a conception stage, a negotiation or decision-making stage, and an outcomes stage. This 7 framework is analytically eclectic in the sense that the different passages in the life of such projects are best explained by competing theoretical perspectives (cf. Sil and Katzenstein 2010). The conception and launching of differentiated integration projects, I argue, cannot be attributed directly to the economic, domestic-political or security (geopolitical) – interests of the political leaders or political parties and governments that proposed them. In this process, political leaders’ ideas – notions, shaped by historical experiences and memories, as to why a politically integrated Europe is important or necessary - play a key and independent role and are not reducible to mere interests, however defined (cf. Parsons 2002 and 2003). Several major differentiated integration projects have their origins in the interaction of the German Chancellor Helmut Kohl (1982-1998) and the French president François Mitterrand (19811995). Most of them were launched and adopted against strong political and/or bureaucratic opposition, and cannot be readily explained as corresponding to any kind of objective interests. At the same time, these projects closely reflected the ‘pro-integrationist’ ideas of the two leaders and their respective historical experiences and memories. Whilst Mitterrand had fought in the Second World War and been wounded, captured and held in German prisoner-of-war camps, Kohl had grown up in a part of the West German Rhineland that had been regularly been contested in Franco-German warfare and lost a grandfather killed in the First World War and an older brother killed in the Second. Both had been ‘militants’ of European integration from the early post-Second World War, the older Mitterrand having attended the Congress of The Hague in 1948 and the younger Kohl having participated in the tearing down of border posts on the border between West Germany and France. As their own memoirs testify (Mitterrand 1996a and 1996b and Kohl 1996), their personal experiences and the turbulent history of modern Europe strongly shaped their pro-integrationist political convictions and agendas (see also Paterson 1998 and, on the Euro, Dyson 1998 and Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 779-82).1 Despite their different biographies, similar convictions were subsequently to inform the differentiated integration projects launched by Schäuble and Lamers and by Fischer, who, despite major other political differences with the ex-Chancellor, actually styled himself as Kohl’s European policy successor (Le Monde 1998). In as far as ideas are primary in explaining the conception of differentiated integration projects, constructivist theory seems to provide a better explanation of this phase in the life of such projects than competing, more ‘rationalist’ perspectives – albeit not participation in the EU as 1 The British Prime Minister John Major was known for his exasperation that in his meetings with Kohl and Mitterrand, in the account of one of his confidants, they would ‘go on and on about history’. 8 such, but rather unmediated history ‘socialized’ Kohl and Mitterrand and moulded their prointegrationist European ideas. The negotiation or decision-making process of differentiated integration projects has been dominated by the EU’s three ‘big powers’: France, Germany and the UK. The support of a coalition of two out of three of these states, typically France and Germany, appears to be a necessary condition of their adoption. No other differentiated integration project was hitherto adopted. Unilateral German initiatives, such as those of Schäuble and Lamers and Fischer, always failed. Integration involving subgroups of member states beyond the Big Three failed to attract other adherents. The Benelux states, for example, were more closely integrated in some issue-areas than the EU as a whole – Belgium and Luxembourg introduced a common currency in 1921 and the Benelux three established a single market as early as 1960 and dismantled mutual border controls in 1970. However, none of these steps served as a motor for the adoption of the Euro, the EU’s Single Market Programme or the Schengen Accord. Rather, all three were primarily the product of Franco-German cooperation (on the Single Market Programme, see Moravcsik 1991). This striking pattern points to the superior – especially structural, but also other - power resources commanded by these governments in the European Council (cf. Tallberg 2008) as well as to the indispensability of the French and German participation in such projects for them to be able to generate the centripetal effects that gradually draw more and more initially non-participating states on board. All but one of the projects, the ESDP (European Security and Defence Policy), was opposed at least initially by the UK. Even in security and defence, in which an Anglo-French coalition exceptionally replaced the Franco-German tandem as the EU’s vanguard, France and Germany made the first steps towards closer EU cooperation. The role of the EU’s supranational organs in the negotiation and adoption of differentiated integration projects was in the most cases very limited. Either the Commission was handicapped by the fact that there was no legal basis in the treaties for it to act in certain issue-areas, such as defence policy, or by the resistance of blocking minorities of member states to initiatives it launched on the same issues within the EU, as with the dismantlement of border controls (Schengen Accord) or exchange of police data (Prüm Accord). The history of differentiated integration negotiation and decisionmaking processes thus decisively corroborates classical intergovernmentalist versus other explanations of European integration. These differ from ‘conventional’ EU decision-making processes because (and primarily in as far as) they are characterized by higher levels of polarization or preference-divergence so that the conflicts they generate can no longer be 9 mediated by the devices of side-payments, issue-linkage and threats of exclusion typically deployed to build winning coalitions in the EU. The spectre of a two- or multi-speed Europe has frequently been conjured up to soften up ‘anti-integrationist’ governments in controversial EU debates in the EU. It was used adroitly by the French and German governments before the 1984 Fontainebleau summit to facilitate a settlement of the British budgetary contribution conflict (Dumas 2007: 214-23; Attali 1993: 658; Moravcsik 1991). Prior to the Euro zone crisis, it had most recently re-emerged in 2008-9 between the two referenda staged in Ireland on the Lisbon Treaty. Indeed differentiated integration projects have usually been launched only when threats of exclusion have proved ineffective or when their initiators calculated that, if used, they would fail. The pattern of outcomes of differentiated integration projects, once adopted, is, as noted above, largely compatible with public-goods-theoretical analysis. However, the latter cannot account for all outcomes. Moreover, to attribute the degree of success of such projects to the pattern of benefits and costs they generated is to neglect the extent to which their sponsors explicitly conceived and designed them with the objectives of maximizing their centripetal or gravitational effects. These, they anticipated, would lock these projects sooner or later into EU law so that, given EU decision-making rules, it would be politically virtually impossible to reverse them, and, especially in respect of the Euro, as Kohl constantly reiterated, would make the overall European integration process irreversible. The launching of some differentiated integration projects outside the EU was seen as a temporary deviation, taken to circumvent opposition that could not be surmounted inside the EU. Participants in differentiated integration projects repeatedly stressed that these were open to accession by initially unwilling states. Once the envisaged centripetal effects had materialized, almost all such projects were (re-)integrated into the EU. Not only did such projects thus unleash strong geographical or horizontal spill-over processes à la Haas, the original theorist of neofunctionalism, but they also – in some cases at least – produced significant functional spillover effects. The Schengen Accord to dismantle border controls, for example, put pressure on participating governments to exchange police information and to harmonize their external border controls and visa, immigration and political asylum and refugee policies. As, most recently the post-2009 financial and Euro crises illustrated, the creation of the Euro heightened pressures on the Euro zone member states also to harmonize their financial sector regulations and fiscal policies. The dynamics unleashed by these differentiated integration projects correspond closely to the processes that neo-functionalist theory predict will lead to 10 ever closer European integration. Given, however, that the initiators of differentiated integration projects anticipated these effects and processes and instrumentalized them to promote their European agendas, it would be more accurate to say that the successful outcomes of those differentiated integration projects that were adopted are attributable to neofunctionalist strategies rather than to the processes identified by neo-functionalists as conducive to greater European integration. The geographical and functional spill-over effects generated by differentiated integration projects did not just happen. They were not the unintended, but rather the anticipated and calculated consequences of their initiators’ decisions. Differentiated ‘sectoral’ integration Monetary policy: From the ‘snake’ to the Euro The German Chancellor Willy Brandt made the first serious proposal to create a European monetary union in 1969, intending thereby to show that his policy of improving relations with Communist-governed Eastern Europe (Ostpolitik) did not mean that Germany was any less wedded to the cause of West European integration. Although the Werner Plan that stemmed from Brandt’s initiative collapsed in the midst of the oil-price crisis in the early 1970s, the EU nonetheless managed to create a currency ‘snake’ aimed at minimizing exchange-rate fluctuations between the member states. However, as the crisis intensified and the EU economies’ performance began rapidly to diverge, the governments of several of the weaker EU economies – first the UK, Italy and Ireland, then later France as well – were forced to leave the ‘snake’, which shrank to a DM (Deutsche Mark) zone comprising Germany, Denmark and the Benelux states (Tsoukalis 1997: 141-142). The German Chancellor Schmidt and the French president Giscard d’Estaing launched a second attempt to create a fixed European exchange-rate regime, the EMS (European Monetary System), in 1977. The EMS enjoyed a longer and healthier life than the ‘snake’, for which it provided the foundation. Although membership of the EMS gradually expanded as the EU enlarged, it never comprised all the member states. EMS entry proved an especially divisive political issue in the UK, where the issue contributed to the demise of Margaret Thatcher as Prime Minister and which was humiliated by having to withdraw from the system in the midst of a major currency crisis in 1992. The third milestone in the evolution of differentiated monetary integration in the EU was, of course, the single currency project adopted at Maastricht in 1991/92. Particularly at Germany’s insistence and to ensure the currency’s future stability, 11 member states wanting to adopt the Euro were supposed to fulfil a set of economic and financial convergence criteria laid down in the Maastricht Treaty. Nonetheless, owing to a generous interpretation of these criteria, the Euro was launched in 1999 with 11 of the then 15 member states. Three of the four non-members preferred not to adopt the Euro, the UK having negotiated an opt-out at Maastricht, Denmark having been forced to negotiate one after a negative referendum outcome on the treaty in 1992, and Sweden having decided negatively at a referendum in 2003. The remaining member state, Greece, adopted the Euro in 2001. Of the 10 states that joined the EU in 2004, five – Slovenia, Malta, Cyprus, Slovakia and Estonia – have meanwhile joined the Euro zone. Despite the current crisis, the remaining five profess intentions to join the Euro. France and Germany were at the heart of the monetary integration process in Europe from the beginning, launching – and exercising a preponderant influence on the provisions of – both the EMS in the late 1970s and the single currency project in the late 1980s (Ludlow 1982: 7993 and 290-291; Sandholtz 1993; Dyson 1999; Dyson and Featherstone 1999: 749-769; Quatremer and Klau 1999). Whereas the German Chancellor Schmidt was the motor of EMS, the single currency was sponsored primarily by the French government as a means of breaking what Paris perceived to be German domination of European monetary policy under the EMS. ‘France will have a stronger influence on the European [Central] Bank than it has today on the Mark’, Mitterrand is quoted as saying to his advisers. As it did not sit in the UN Security Council, the Mark was its ‘only diplomatic weapon’ (Aeschimann and Riche 1996: 91). When the issue of German unification exploded on to the political agenda in 1989-90, the single currency became more important for France as a means of binding a unified Germany more tightly into (Western) Europe (see Genscher 1995: 374-375; 386-391). In terms of domestic politics, the German government’s acquiescence in the abandonment of the DM in favour of a single currency was extremely risky. Chancellor Kohl’s decision to support the French initiative was dictated primarily by his concern to stabilize the FrancoGerman relationship and emphasize his government’s commitment to closer European integration. Even before German unification became topical, in 1988, Kohl told the (hostile) Bundesbank Council that Germany had to accept the single currency for France as it had to ‘accept the weather’ (Balkhausen 1992: 70). He signed up to the project just before the Strasbourg European Council meeting in December 1989, three weeks after the fall of the Berlin Wall, a few days after having made his famous ‘10-Point’ speech in the German Parliament on German unity, and just after French president Mitterrand had warned German 12 Foreign Minister Genscher that if Germany turned its back on the integration process because of unification, this would provoke a return of traditional balance-of-power politics in Europe (see, for example, Genscher 1995: 676-680; Attali 1995: 349-354; Kohl 1996: 184-185; Wall 2008: 117-122). Kohl subsequently told the US foreign secretary Baker that the single currency was ‘against German interests’, but it was a politically important step he supported because ‘Germany needs friends’ (Marsh 2010: 138-39). Without joint Franco-German backing, the single currency would certainly never have seen the light of day. Given the central position of the German economy and the strong influence exercised by the Bundesbank over monetary policies in Europe, no European monetary union would have been feasible without German participation. Most other member states had a strong incentive to support the creation of a single currency. Like France, they too could expect to exercise stronger influence on a European central bank than on the German Bundesbank, to whose monetary policies they felt forced to adjust. By participating in the single currency, they hoped to reap benefits in terms of interest rates, economic growth and price stability from the creation of European monetary institutions based on the model that had worked so well in Germany. Still, several then poorer member states insisted, as a condition of their acquiescence in the Maastricht Treaty, that the EU’s regional policy budget (‘cohesion funds’) be increased substantially to enable them to modernize their economies to cope better with competition in the single market once they could no longer offset typically higher inflation rates by allowing their currencies to depreciate vis-à-vis those of other, economically stronger members (see Lange 1992). Justice and home affairs policy: From Schengen to Prüm Differentiated integration in justice and home affairs was launched by France, Germany and the three Benelux states in 1985. In the Schengen Accord, an intergovernmental agreement outside the EU, these five EU members agreed to dismantle border controls, to harmonize visa and political asylum policies and to cooperate more closely on police and justice matters. It was a decade before the agreement could enter into force, but by this time Portugal and Spain had joined the Schengen group. Italy and Austria (1997), Greece (fully in 2000), Denmark, Finland and Sweden (2001) and nine of the 10 states that joined the EU in 2004 (2007) have subsequently followed suit, leaving five of 27 member states – the two most recent entrants, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the UK, Ireland and Cyprus – still outside the Schengen zone. Denmark initially decided against joining the Schengen area, as this 13 would have made it impossible for it at the time to maintain open borders with other members of pre-existing Nordic Union with its Scandinavian neighbours, but this obstacle was solved when Sweden and Finland acceded to the EU and non-members Norway and Iceland negotiated special agreements enabling them also to join the Schengen area. By contrast, Ireland has not done so, because this would disrupt the Common Travel Area with the nonmember UK, which would then impose controls on the Irish-British borders, as well as empower British police to pursue suspected law-breakers across the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic (Nanz 1995: 45-46; Cullen 1995: 83-88). Paralleling the course taken by monetary integration, which began outside the EU treaties, the Schengen acquis was brought into EU law by the 1997 Amsterdam Treaty, with the UK and Ireland securing optouts from its provisions. A similar process has occurred with the Prüm Convention, which deals with related issues of data exchange and cooperation between justice and police authorities in combating cross-border crime (cf. Bossong 2007: 13-15). Launched outside the EU in 2005 by France, Germany, the Benelux states, Austria and Spain, this agreement was taken over into EU law for the Schengen member states in 2007. As with the Euro, the integrative dynamic that these projects generated was entirely contingent upon French and German participation. The process leading to the Schengen Accord was initiated at a summit meeting of Kohl and Mitterrand in Rambouillet in May 1984. Kohl was the main protagonist of the project. He pursued it against the strong opposition of German Interior Ministry and security bureaucracy, using his constitutional authority to determine the guidelines of government policy to shift the competence for negotiating it to the Chancellor’s Office. Although his initiative occurred not long after there had been truckers’ protests against border delays and was supported by business organizations as well as the opposition Social Democrats, non-governmental organizations or interests were not influential actors in this process, which was ‘overwhelmingly an intragovernmental matter’ (Eisel 2009). One important motive for Kohl’s initiative seems to have been his conviction that something had to be done to make the benefits of European integration more ‘tangible’ for ‘ordinary citizens’ in their daily lives (Hreblay 1998: 15; Nanz 1995: 30). On the French side, there was a similar alignment. Public opinion was ‘passive’ and played no role in the issue (Lalumière 2006). The relevant French bureaucratic agencies were very hostile to dismantling border controls. Mitterrand’s ‘political will’ was determining for French participation (Lalumière 2006). Less than two months after the Rambouillet summit, the two governments agreed at a meeting in Saarbrücken in July 1984 to dismantle 14 mutual border controls. The Schengen accord was negotiated the following year after a Commission initiative to dismantle border controls based on the Franco-German agreement had been blocked in the Council by the UK, Ireland and Denmark (Epiney 1995: 24). Of all differentiated integration projects, the Schengen and Prüm accords have generated the most powerful centripetal effects, judged by the subsequent growth in the number of participating states. As Kölliker argues regarding Schengen, this may be attributable to the fact that both provided significant public goods the consumption of which was limited to their participants – access to an international information system providing data on wanted persons and objects and – an important incentive following the collapse of Cold War borders after 1989 – strengthened capacities to limit the number of political asylum-seekers. The participation of France and Germany in these projects obviously strengthened the incentives for initial non-members to participate in them because it greatly increased the volume of such goods that could be consumed, compared with the volume that would have been available if such a project had been launched by smaller states, such as the Benelux three. Maastricht Social Protocol The Maastricht Social Protocol was the product of irreconcilable conflicts between the British Conservative government and the other 11 member states over proposed social policy provisions in the Maastricht Treaty. Its contents related to employment and labour relations issues. Inter alia it provided for the consultation of trade union and employers’ organizations in the making of EU social policy and for more extensive use of qualified majority voting as opposed to unanimity on such issues. The British Prime Minister Major was under extreme pressure from his party not to betray the ‘Thatcherite revolution’ at the Maastricht summit (Mazzucelli 1997: 184). Given its relatively liberal, unregulated labour relations system, the UK had no material incentive to accept or later accede to the social protocol, whose provisions could indirectly provoke a disproportionately big increase in British employers’ costs. Indeed, in case of doubt, it could anticipate positive economic effects through its nonparticipation in a European social policy, which, to the extent that it led, as was expected, to an upward harmonization of labour law, would raise employers’ costs in the participating member states and thus make British exports to other member states more price-competitive and the UK more attractive as a business location in the single market. The most ardent proponent of a social chapter in the treaty was France, followed by Belgium and Germany (Lange 1992: 6-7). For the Socialist President Mitterrand, social policy, along 15 with monetary union, was one of two ‘essential dossiers’ for the treaty negotiations – he threatened not to agree to any treaty that excluded it (Mazzucelli 1997: 44, 188 and 194). Despite the opposition of German business organizations, the Christian Democrat Kohl also supported the inclusion of a social policy chapter in the treaty – for him, given that the overwhelming majority of EU citizens were wage- and salary-earners, Europe had also to be a ‘social union’ (Kohl 2007: 389; Attali 1995: 330). According to one source, he in fact traded his support for Mitterrand on this issue for Mitterrand’s support for the inclusion of justice and home affairs in the EU’s competences (Mazzucelli 1997: 139). After Major had rejected the idea of the UK opting out of a treaty social chapter, Commission president Delors mediated a compromise whereby, with Major’s acquiescence, the 11 other member states adopted the proposed chapter as a protocol to the Maastricht Treaty (Mazzucelli 1997: 19394). Some of the poorer member states whose economies could have been negatively affected by the higher labour costs that a more expansive EU social policy implied were persuaded to sign up to the protocol by the promise of an increased regional policy budget (see above; Lange 1992). Differentiated integration in EU social policy was superseded when the Labour Party came to power in the 1997 British elections. To accede to the Social Protocol was one of its first European policy decisions (Wall 2008: 163-165). On this issue, domestic political variables in the only non-participating state – a change in the political complexion of the governing majority and the new majority’s ideological predisposition and electoral-political interests – trumped policy character as a determinant of the outcome (Kölliker 2006: 185-86). Neither the decision of the 11 other members to attach a social protocol to the treaty nor that of the British Labour government to sign up to it in 1997 is explicable in terms of public-goods theory. Defence cooperation: From the Franco-German Brigade to ESDP Security and defence is an area in which European cooperation independent of the US has historically proven to be politically very difficult. Divergences between the West European states in this field led, of course, to the collapse of the European Defence Community project in 1954. West European security was subsequently assured by the US-dominated NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), from whose military command France withdrew in 1966. Franco-German military cooperation was hindered by major divergences over relations with the US, over nuclear weapons – which France possessed, but Germany, of course, did 16 not – and in terms of security or strategic cultures, which legitimized the use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy in France, but not in Germany (Gordon 1995). Aided not least by Mitterrand’s support for Kohl’s decision to approve the stationing of medium-range US nuclear weapons in Germany in 1983, Franco-German defence relations began to improve in the 1980s. Kohl’s interest in forging closer links with France in this area related to his fear that, in time, US commitment to Western European security would diminish (Attali 1993: 713). Sceptical as to how much progress could be achieved among the 12 EU member states ‘or even six’ in the late 1980s, he argued that France and Germany had to launch a bilateral initiative. This led in 1987 to Mitterrand’s and his decision – with minimal involvement of their respective defence establishments – to create a joint Franco-German brigade as the ‘core of a future European army’ (Gordon 1995: 41; Mazzucelli 1997: 142). As the Cold War ended and Germany unified in 1989-91, Kohl and Mitterrand also functioned as the main sponsors of the development of a common EU foreign and security policy, towards which numerous other member states, including the UK, Ireland, Denmark, Portugal, Holland and Italy, were either reserved or hostile. At Maastricht British Prime Minister Major finally agreed to a compromise on defence under which the long dormant WEU (Western European Union)2 would be transformed into a component of the EU to ‘reinforce the European pillar of the Atlantic Alliance’ – a formulation which reflected the UK’s and its closest allies concern that the Maastricht Treaty contain no provisions that might weaken NATO and US involvement in the provision of European security. Even prior to the Maastricht negotiations, Kohl and Mitterrand had resolved to upgrade and transform the small Franco-German brigade (4200 soldiers) into a 45,000-strong ‘Eurocorps’, open to other member states, to engage in peace-making, peacekeeping and humanitarian missions and to contribute to the defence of Western Europe under the terms of the NATO and WEU treaties (Gordon 1995: 43). Although other member states were invited to contribute to the Eurocorps, only three, however, did so: Belgium (1993), Spain (1994) and Luxembourg (1996).3 The Eurocorps has since been deployed in various UN, NATO and EU missions, but its creation did not generate centripetal effects comparable to those that emanated from joint Franco-German initiatives in other issue-areas. The founding moment of 2 In 1991, the WEU had nine members: the original five (France, the UK and the Benelux states), Germany and Italy, which joined in 1955, and Portugal and Spain, both of which had joined only in 1990. Having been founded by the Brussels Treaty in 1948, the WEU effectively became redundant with the creation of NATO the following year. 3 Several other EU member states, including Greece, Italy, Poland, Austria and Romania, are meanwhile represented among the headquarters staff of the Eurocorps, along with Turkey and the US. 17 the ESDP – the Saint Malo Declaration from December 1998 – was not a Franco-German, but rather Anglo-French initiative, launched in the wake and midst of the wars in Yugoslavia, which had dramatically revealed the EU member states’ incapacity to wield military power independently of the US (Howorth 2007). Given that Germany’s armed forces are smaller than those of the EU’s other two ‘big powers’ and less capable of being deployed overseas, a European military intervention capacity built around an Anglo-French nucleus is more credible than a Franco-German-based force. Moreover, the UK’s role at the core of EDSP reassured the US and the most strongly US-oriented European members of NATO that the EU would do nothing to antagonize the US and undermine the NATO. The on-going difficulties of the EU member states to agree a common foreign and security policy even after the adoption of the ESDP by all member states except Denmark were underlined by the divisions among them over the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the military intervention in Libya in 2011. The weak centripetal effects of Franco-German defence cooperation were particularly evident at the time of the Iraq War, when only two other EU governments – Belgium and Luxembourg – rallied to a fresh bilateral initiative undertaken by the two governments to establish a stronger independent European defence capacity.4 The EU’s Anglo-French-led efforts to develop a substantial rapid reaction force to intervene in military crises abroad have regularly fallen short of their targets, leaving the US by default as still the dominant supplier of military security in Europe. Military security is an excludable public good such that those states that can credibly pledge to provide or organize it could expect such an offer to generate significant centripetal effects, at least if there are common perceived security threats. If Franco-German-led and, to a lesser extent, Anglo-French-led initiatives in the EU have not produced such effects, this indicates that numerous other EU member states do not regard France and Germany as credible or perhaps even as dependable alternative suppliers of their security to the US. Many of them clearly share the sentiment expressed by the then Danish Prime Minister during the Iraq War controversy that their security is better guaranteed by ‘the American superpower’ than by the ‘fragile balance of power amongst Germany, France and England’ (Anders Fogh Rasmussen, as quoted in Keel 2005: 81). The EU remains far away from having a single army to match its single currency. 4 The meeting of the four governments in Brussels in spring 2003 was rather derogatorily labelled the ‘Chocolate Summit’. 18 Differentiated ‘institutional’ integration The relative success of differentiated sectoral integration projects contrasts strongly with the relative failure of initiatives to create an overall institutional structure for a differentiated EU, to set up, either within or outside of the existing European treaties, a formal legal-political framework through which a subset of EU member states can adopt decisions to forge closer political integration than is feasible among all members. The sum result of several such initiatives has been the adoption of various articles in the Amsterdam and Nice treaties that define the scope for ‘enhanced cooperation’ between subgroups of member states, but, in well over a decade, have been used only twice (Stubb 2002).5 In this section I will explore the origins and contents of two such initiatives that provoked controversial debates since the end of the Cold War and try to identify the main reasons for their relative failure. The Schäuble-Lamers paper The Schäuble-Lamers paper (CDU-CSU/Bundestagsfraktion 1994) was written by the chairman of the German Christian Democrats’ Parliamentary Group and the group’s foreign policy spokesman. They timed it to influence the IGC (Intergovernmental Conference) called to negotiate reforms of the EU’s organs so that the EU could cope with prospective future enlargements. Schäuble and Lamers argued that, owing to the ‘over-extension’ of the EU’s existing organs, which had been created for just six members, to the increasing differentiation of interests within the EU, and to the rise of ‘retrogressive nationalism’ in almost all member states, there was a danger, if nothing were done soon, that the EU would develop into a ‘loose association with different sub-groupings and limited to a few economic aspects’. In view of its geographic location, its size and its history, Germany had a ‘special interest’ in preventing Europe ‘drifting apart’. Such a trend, if it materialized, would put Germany back in the same location in the centre of Europe (Mittellage) that historically had made it difficult for Germany to ‘find a clear direction in terms of its internal constitution and a stable, durable balance in terms of its foreign policy’. Germany had a fundamental interest in both ‘widening’ and ‘deepening’ the EU. Eastern enlargement was imperative to stabilize the postCommunist Eastern European region on its borders. ‘Deepening’ was no less important for Germany because the ‘loose association’ that would otherwise develop would not be able to cope with the ‘enormous tasks’ of the Eastern enlargement nor guarantee European stability. 5 The two occasions on which these provisions have been used relate to a divorce law concerning couples with different nationalities and to the adoption of a single European patent, which, on linguistic grounds, the Italian and Spanish governments had opposed. 19 As the barriers to institutional reform in the EU were already ‘extraordinarily high’ and likely to grow, member states ‘willing and able to go further in their cooperation and integration than others’ had to do so. This ‘hard core’ had to ‘set a strong centre against the centrifugal forces in an ever larger union’, in particular to prevent the EU dividing into a south-western, protectionist-inclined bloc of states close to France and an economically liberal north-western group aligned with Germany. As the ‘core of the hard core’, France and Germany had to raise their relationship to a ‘qualitatively new level’ (all citations from CDU/CSU Bundestagsfraktion 1994). The paper did not make detailed proposals as to how the EU treaties could be changed to create a ‘hard core’ Europe. Most controversially it identified France, Germany and the three Benelux states among the ‘five to six countries’ that currently formed the EU’s core, excluding the sixth founder member, Italy, as well as the other existing members. The paper stressed, however, that the core should not be ‘closed off, but rather be open for every country that is willing and able to live up to its requirements’. Hence, not only Italy, but also Spain and the UK, for example, should join the core ‘as soon as they have solved certain present problems and so long as they are prepared to commit themselves’ to deeper integration. The Schäuble-Lamers paper was not a German government document, although it came from the major governing party. Other German parties criticized the paper, but mainly for its diplomatic tactlessness in presuming to determine which member states qualified for membership of the ‘hard core’ rather than its substantive thrust. The most important European policy actor in Germany, whose reaction therefore mattered most, was Chancellor Kohl. His office called the paper a ‘discussion paper’ whose impact could not immediately be foreseen, but refused to reject it (Süddeutsche Zeitung 1994a). Kohl had actually seen the paper in advance and said it was ‘certainly not wrong’ (Lamers 2007). However, he did not want to identify himself with it publicly, but instead preferred to wait and see what reactions it provoked, especially abroad. Reactions to the paper in other EU member states were predominantly negative. The ‘cries of indignation’ in Italy, including from the new government of Silvio Berlusconi, were especially loud (Lamers 2007). But for the most part the paper’s authors had anticipated these. Their most important target audience was in France, which was enduring a period of political cohabitation involving the Socialist President Mitterrand and a Parliamentary 20 majority and government led by the Conservative politician, Edouard Balladur. Balladur himself had set out a vision of Europe’s future comprising three tiers and an ‘inner core committed to full-blooded monetary, military and social union’ just two days before the publication of the Schäuble-Lamers paper (The European 1994). The Prime Minister distanced himself, however, from the notion that there could be ‘a central core of the same countries pursuing faster integration in all fields’ (Financial Times 1994). Rather, in his vision of a ‘variable-geometry’ Europe, different groups of EU states would pursue faster integration in varying fields. President Mitterrand dismissed the paper more unequivocally, saying he was not favourable in favour of either to Balladur’s conception of a ‘variablegeometry’ Europe or to reducing the 12 existing member states to a core of five or six: ‘I think that Portugal or Ireland deserve just as much to be part of this Europe as France and Germany’ (Mitterrand 1994a and 1994b). The Gaullist party leader, Jacques Chirac, who was to succeed Miterrand as president in 1995, strictly rejected the paper (Süddeutsche Zeitung 1994d), as did, still more vehemently, the parties of the extreme Left and Right. The most supportive responses to the Schäuble-Lamers paper came from the centrist – Social or Christian Democratic – politicians, such as Delors. Overall, French political circles were, in Lamers’ words, ‘torn’ in their attitudes to the paper. For Lamers, President Mitterrand himself encapsulated ‘all the contradictions’ of French European policy. He could have supported their initiative, but didn’t because there was still ‘a residual fear and mistrust of Germany’ in France (Lamers 2007). Most French political leaders did not want to become entrapped in a small monetary union that Germany would dominate, but wanted a larger one in which, with the aid of allies such as Italy, it could balance German power (McCarthy 1999: 49). In the subsequent IGC negotiations, the governments of the countries that Schäuble and Lamers identified as belonging to an initial hard-core of member states, plus those of the three new members, started out basically favourable to the notion that a subset of member states should be able to integrate more quickly than the others, while the others were opposed (Stubb 2002: 65, 69 and 72-73). In 1996, the French and German governments managed to agree a common position, according to which no single member would be empowered to veto differentiated integration projects. Their underlying conceptions on this issue nonetheless remained divergent as well as shifting, reflecting the more general fact that ‘throughout the IGC and indeed at Amsterdam, Chirac and Kohl were never on the same bicycle’ (Stubb 2002: 84 and 152). Almost all controversial questions concerning differentiated integration 21 were nonetheless settled before the Amsterdam summit in June 1997, enabling heads of government to spend no more than seven minutes discussing the flexibility provisions of the draft treaty (Stubb 2002: 100). According to one analysis, ‘there was no need to push flexibility to the extreme’, as the conflicts that had put this issue on the EU agenda – over which member states would qualify for the Euro, over enlargement and over the recalcitrant British Conservative government, which had been defeated at elections just before the summit – had meanwhile been resolved (Stubbs 2002: 105). The new treaty provisions on ‘enhanced cooperation’ bore little relation to the SchäubleLamers paper. They actually set the obstacles to promoting differentiated integration so high that no attempt was ever made to use them. They approximated the kind of lowest-commondenominator outcome characteristic of decision-making processes such as EU treaty reform where unanimity is the decision rule, unless a coalition of at least two ‘big’ member states threatens to ‘go it alone’ if necessary outside the EU. The lack of support for the SchäubleLamers paper in France was particularly damaging. If French support for it had been much stronger, it is probable that Kohl would have backed it more strongly both publicly and in the IGC negotiations. Not only in Lamers’ view, but also in that of various French observers, the paper’s impact would have been much more powerful if French reactions to it had been more decisive and positive (Lamers 2007; Gougeon 2006: 393; Goulard 2007: 101). The Fischer Humboldt Speech Germany’s Green Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer’s Humboldt University speech (Fischer 2000) was based on a similar analysis of post-Cold War Europe and Germany’s place and role in it to that of Schäuble and Lamers. Like them, Fischer viewed the EU’s Eastern enlargement and its deepening as equally indispensable, the former to ensure continental peace and stability and the latter to preserve the EU’s cohesion and capacity for action and to prevent it sliding into a ‘serious crisis’ (Fischer 2007: 277). After German concessions at the Berlin summit in 1999 had created the financial pre-conditions for enlargement, Fischer was looking for reciprocal concessions from France in the new treaty that the member states were scheduled to negotiate during the French EU presidency in the second half of the year 2000 so that the institutional pre-conditions of enlargement would be created (Fischer 2007: 302). Fischer’s institutional reform strategy rested heavily on closer cooperation with France. This was in any case the best way, Fischer thought, to allay French worries about a prospective decline in French influence and the greater power of a bigger post-unification Germany in an 22 enlarged EU (Fischer 2007: 301). There was a series of informal meetings between Fischer and his French Socialist counterpart, Hubert Védrine, about the EU’s future starting in late 1998 (Fischer 2007: 298). But, as the French presidency approached, it became increasingly clear to Fischer that a joint Franco-German initiative to reform the EU institutions would not be feasible, owing to the cohabitation in France between Chirac and a Socialist government led by Lionel Jospin, who was likely to be Chirac’s principal opponent at the next presidential elections in 2002 (Fischer 2007: 302). Neither Chirac nor Jospin wanted to antagonize Euro-sceptical currents in their respective political camps by adopting too ‘prointegrationist’ positions. Hence Fischer decided to ‘go it alone’ and informed Védrine (Fischer 2007: 302). Fischer pleaded in his speech for a transition from the ‘confederation’ that currently existed to a ‘European federation’ with both a European Parliament and a European government. He proposed a bicameral European Parliament, comprising a directly-elected chamber and one chosen along the lines of the US Senate or German Bundesrat, and a European government that could be based either on the existing Council or on the Commission or headed by a directly-elected president (Fischer 2000: 7). If it proved impossible under the existing treaties to negotiate the requisite institutional reforms before enlargement, then at some stage during the next decade either a majority of member states should negotiate a new ‘constitutional treaty’ establishing a European federation or, if this proved not to be feasible, a smaller group of member states should form a ‘vanguard’ (Avantgarde) to forge closer political integration – inside or outside the existing treaties (Fischer 2000: 8-9). Members of the vanguard could initially strengthen their cooperation in the same way that this had already occurred in monetary and justice and home affairs (Schengen). They could form a ‘gravitation centre’ based on a new European ‘basic treaty’ (Grundvertrag) and possessing its own organs, including a government that would speak with one voice for its members in the larger EU, a ‘strong Parliament’ and a directly-elected president. Unlike Schäuble and Lamers, Fischer did not identify which current or future member states he thought should participate in such a vanguard, but reiterated that the vanguard could ‘never be exclusive but must always be open to all – present and future - member states’ (Fischer 2000: 9-10). Fischer emphasized like them, however, that in the future as in the past no European integration project would get off the ground without the ‘closest Franco-German cooperation’ (Fischer 2000: 9). 23 In Germany, Fischer’s speech attracted wide political support. Fischer stressed that he had made it in an unofficial capacity and it was not therefore government policy. Nonetheless, the SPD backed the speech. Despite the ‘unofficial’ character of the speech, Fischer had informed the SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schröder of his intentions and showed him the text in advance. Schröder told Fischer that the speech would cause a ‘big bang … But do it’ (Fischer 2007: 304). Having come to office as a self-confessed relative ‘Euro-sceptic’, Schröder had fast become convinced of the necessity of close European political integration and of a close Franco-German relationship (Schröder 2006). The Christian Democrats were equally approving, claiming, not without a certain amount of justification, that the foreign minister had basically stolen the ideas contained in the Schäuble-Lamers paper (Fischer 2007: 310). Among the other EU member states, the pattern of reactions conformed fairly closely to that which the Schäuble-Lamers Paper had produced. It was basically negative in the UK and Scandinavia, with both the British and Danish governments seeking to avoid a public debate about the ‘political finality’ of Europe at a time when their countries’ accession to the Euro was a controversial issue, but basically positive in the Benelux states. As, unlike Schäuble and Lamers, Fischer had not been so imprudent as to threaten to marginalize Italy in the EU, reactions in Italy were less hostile. They were most positive among Centrist politicians and on the Left, on the condition that, if there should be a differentiated Europe, the fastest ships ‘must not lose sight of the slowest’ (Le Monde 2000b). Initial French reactions to Fischer’s initiative were characterized by one newspaper as ‘significantly more favourable’ than they had been to the Schäuble-Lamers Paper (Le Monde 2000a). Fischer himself describes French responses to his speech as having been for the most part ‘hesitant, but basically positive’. Publicly, however, Fischer’s speech was severely criticized not only by the Euro-sceptical Socialist Interior Minister, Jean-Pierre Chevènement (Le Monde 2000b), but also by his own French counterpart, Védrine. Referring to France’s upcoming EU presidency, the latter pointed out that there was a difference between launching proposals for Europe’s long-term future and making a good job of being the Council president (Védrine 2000). Unless the French presidency could pilot the IGC to a successful conclusion at the Nice summit, no longer-term objective could be achieved. For Védrine, Fischer proposed a much too radical shift in the distribution of power from the member states to the European level. The French foreign minister was in favour, however, of making it much easier to mount differentiated integration projects than was possible under the Amsterdam Treaty. President Chirac himself responded – less critically – to Fischer’s 24 initiative in a speech to the German Parliament. ‘New ways’ had to be opened to ensure that, after enlargement, the countries that wanted to integrate more rapidly could do so (Chirac 2000). These member states could gather around France and Germany, forming what the French president described as a ‘pioneer group’. This group could base its cooperation on the ‘reinforced cooperation’ provisions likely to be adopted in the revised treaty and cooperate if necessary outside of the treaties, ‘without ever jeopardizing the union’s coherence and acquis’. In contrast to Fischer, though, Chirac did not think that a new treaty or ‘sophisticated institutions’ were required for this purpose, for which a secretariat, a ‘supple coordination mechanism’ would suffice. Some observers criticized Chirac’s project as a new incarnation of France’s traditional preference for an intergovernmental as opposed to a supranational or federal Europe (Goulard 2007: 103). Fischer himself found Chirac’s pioneer group proposals ‘pretty thin’ and much too timid to have any chance of being translated into a practical success (Fischer 2007: 312). The two governments nonetheless found it easier to reach a compromise on differentiated integration than on other issues on the IGC agenda (Chirac 2011: 304). They clashed fiercely at the Nice IGC summit, which is generally regarded as having been a fiasco. The French and German governments reportedly did not push as hard to expand the scope for differentiated integration under the EU treaty as they had three years earlier at Amsterdam (Stubb 2002: 152). The outcome fairly well replicated the kind of lowest-common-denominator solution reached at Amsterdam: the new treaty made the conditions for ‘reinforced cooperation’ less, but only slightly less, restrictive. One analysis forecast that the treaty spelled the ‘end of a pre-determined and unitary core which would determine the pace of integration’, that the new provisions would not be used very often and that, when they were, their role would be to facilitate agreement in the Council in the same way as the threat of a qualified majority vote (Stubb 2002: 122). Fischer ‘deeply regretted’ that it had been impossible to agree a joint paper on the Europe’s future with Védrine in lieu of his Humboldt speech. The effect and impact of a joint Franco-German initiative would, in his view, have been ‘considerably bigger’ (Fischer 2007: 310). Conclusions: The crisis of differentiated integration This analysis shows that the political history of differentiated integration in the EU has been shaped primarily by Franco-German relations. With one exception, differentiated integration projects that both France and Germany supported have always been adopted and have 25 generated centripetal effects that persuaded more and more initially unwilling states to participate in them. In the case of defence, of which in Europe the US and the UK are both bigger providers than Germany, Franco-German projects did not exercise as big an impact as in other issue-areas. Instead, progress in this sphere depended more heavily on the AngloFrench initiative launched in 1998 at St Malo. Projects on which no Franco-German agreement was reached invariably failed. No project was launched by other subgroups of member states, let alone adopted or successful. The history of differentiated integration thus confirms the venerable – intergovernmentalist - maxim in the EU that when France and Germany agree, closer integration is generally possible and that when they do not, it is not. In practice, Franco-German disagreements were strongest mainly on projects of differentiated institutional integration, which originated and were fairly broadly supported in Germany, but were to different degrees opposed in France. The fact that successive French governments either proposed or were willing to participate in differentiated sectoral integration projects indicates that French opposition was not directed against differentiated integration as such. For both Schäuble-Lamers and Fischer, differentiated integration was a vehicle to circumvent the opposition to closer political integration among other states, first and foremost the UK, and create a much more ‘federal’ EU in which the national governments would have less and EU organs more power than under the existing treaties. This is indicated by their concern to keep any ‘hard-core Europe’ open to accession by initial ‘outsiders’ and to ensure that the provisions or decisions of any project initially launched outside the EU should subsequently be (re-)integrated as far as possible in the acquis communautaire. In essence, the pattern of outcomes of conflicts over differentiated integration in the EU represents the victory of the ‘functionalist’ over the ‘federalist’ programmes of European integration. A decade and a half after the failure of the project he launched with Lamers, Schäuble (2008) concluded that a large proportion of the proposals they had made had meanwhile been implemented. However, this is a more accurate judgment in respect of sectoral integration than in respect of the EU’s institutional structure, where the ‘big bang’ that both Schäuble-Lamers and, even more, Fischer envisaged was still-born. In France, compared with Germany, numerous factors - the higher level of political polarization over European integration, the higher pressures to legitimize major treaty changes by popular referendum (not foreseen by the German Basic Law), the weaker political position of the Christian Democratic, Social Democratic, Liberal and Green currents that in other countries are the principal bastions of support for the EU, the stronger representation of Euro-sceptical factions in all the main political movements, and the 26 greater role of the state in the shaping of national identity – together to make it politically much less feasible for key political actors to support radical reforms of the EU’s institutional structure. It is impossible to be certain what would have happened if the Schäuble-Lamers and Fischer projects had mobilized much wider and stronger support than they did in France. It seems likely, however, that in this scenario the German government would have rallied to them more publicly and openly and a Franco-German coalition would have emerged to back them. The experience of differentiated sectoral integration projects suggests that numerous other member states would likely have joined them. True, one notable older Franco-German project whose adoption would have established a differentiated institutional structure for Europe – the Fouchet Plan (see above) -failed for lack of support among the other four member states. However, this was because it was an intergovernmental project designed to forestall closer political integration. ‘Integrationist’ members such as the Benelux states would have been far more likely to rally to the Schäuble-Lamers and Fischer projects, as they aimed at intensifying rather than rolling back existing levels of integration. After the demise of Fischer’s project, the door closed on the prospects for major differentiated institutional integration in the EU for the next decade. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US in 2001, Fischer (2004) himself declared ‘hard-core’ Europe projects to be outmoded. The EU had now to assume a much more important strategic role, embrace Turkey and be able to act on a genuinely ‘continental scale’. When, in 2005, French voters threw out the EU’s draft Constitutional Treaty in a referendum, ‘ideas of a core Europe or a FrancoGerman union’ seemed finally to be ‘all but dead’, all the more so as in Germany too, support for closer European integration declined significantly (The Economist 2005; Bulmer and Paterson 2010 and 2011; Paterson 2011). What put differentiated integration squarely back on to the EU’s agenda in the new decade was neither shifting popular sentiment about the integration process nor visionary ‘proEuropean’ politicians, but rather, from 2009 onwards, the burgeoning Euro zone crisis. Whilst the outcome of the December 2011 EU summit may presage the development of a more differentiated Europe, based on membership or non-membership of the Euro zone, this scenario could not disguise the fact that not only the Euro zone, but also the very practice of differentiated integration, was in crisis. Simultaneously, the three principal differentiated integration projects – the Euro, the Schengen Accord and the ESDP – all seemed increasingly 27 fragile. The Euro zone looked perilously close to disintegration, the Schengen Accord was being challenged by some member states’ re-imposition of border controls, and the ESDP was in disarray following the divergent stances taken by Germany, on the one hand, and France and the UK, on the other, over military intervention in Libya and owing to the EU’s increasingly manifest failure to develop a credible independent military intervention capacity. This triple crisis of differentiated integration did not threaten the practice of differentiated integration as such. It threatened instead to increase differentiation by putting into reverse the process whereby more and more member states gradually acceded to projects launched by a Franco-German-led ‘vanguard’ group. 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