Two Computer Programs for Probit Analysis1 By R. J. DAUM,2 and W. A statistical technique called "probit analysis" to aid in the interpretation of dose-mortality data has become common practice, not only among entomologists but also among other biologists conducting tests that involve dose and response when the response is quanta!. An adequate summarization of dose-mortality data consists of the LD60, its confidence (fiducial) limits, and the slope of the probit regression line or that dose which will cause 50% of the population to respond (die) and the standard deviate of the distribution of tolerances (reciprocal of the slope). However, in practice, the tedious, extensive, and often baffling calculations associated with probit analysis have deterred many biologists from obtaining an adequate summarization of dose-mortality data. The increasing number and availability .of electronic computers and their ability to process routinely large volumes of calculations present the biologist with the opportunity of obtaining a much more adequate summary of his dose-mortality data. KILLCREAS3 listed dose. If SENSESWITCH I is on, an intermediate output is obtained after each cycle of iteration. This output consists of the slope, the sum of squares and cross products of the probit-response and log-dose, and the sum of squares attributable to regression. If SENSE SWITCH 1 is off, the intermediate output is bypassed, and no output is obtained until the last and the next-to-Iast slope values agree within ±0.00005 or until 30 cycles of iteration have been completed. After convergence or 30 cycles of iteration, the computer prints the results in an analysis of linear regression format which includes the degrees of freedom, the sum of squares, the mean squares, and the critical values of Fooand Chi square (all at the 5% probability level). It then prints out the number of iterations required for convergence, the slope of the regression line, the sum of the weighting coefficients, and the means of the probit-response and log-dose. The next line presents the critical value of too used in setting the confidence limits (too = 1.96 if homogeneous; if hetergeneous, too Student's "t" with K-2 degrees of freedom, where K is the number of doses) ; G, the precision in estimating the slope of the regression line or the ratio of the F values; the sum of squares and the cross products of the log-dose and probit-response; and the standard error and the standard error of the slope. If the data are homogeneous (i.e., if the sum of squares of deviations from regression is less than Chi square with K-2 degrees of freedom). the standard error is set equal to 1.00; otherwise, the standard error is taken as the square root of the deviations from the regression mean square. = To assist researchers who would like to use probit analysis of dose-mortality data, the authors have written 2 programs for use on an IBM 1620 electronic computer. The 1st fits a single log-probit regression line and is an c.'Ctensive revision of a previous program (Daum et al. 1961) that was designed for a small memory computer (IBM 1620 MocIel I, 20K) and has been used extensively throughout the United States and in other countries for over 5 years. Criticism and comments received since construction of this program were considered in making revisions and in writing the 2nd program (Potency Probit Analysis). Both programs are written in FORTRANII language and obtain the weighted linear regression of pro bits on log-dose by employing the maximum likelihood procedure described by Finney (1%2). This article has been prepared in response to the many requests for and inquiries about these 2 programs. The program then tests for significance of regression. If the regression is not significant, the computer prints NONSIGNIFICANTREGRESSIONand proceeds to read the parameter card for the next set of data. A nonsignificant regression indicates that the relationship between log-dose and probit-response is not defined by the data. If the regression is significant, the computer calculates and presents the LD.o. 50. 70, and 00 and their 95% confidence (fiducial) limits before proceeding to the next set of data. An unlimited number of sets of data may follow the 1st and will be processed without operator intervention. A completed example of probit analysis is presented in Table 1. PROBIT ANALYSIs.-The 1st program fits a single logprobit regression line that contains from 3-25 doses for as many as 999,999 animals/dose. Input consists of a parameter card followed by 3-25 data cards. The parameter card instructs the computer ()f the number of data cards comprising the regression line, the number of animals that were observed and that responded in the control (check), the identification numbers, and whether individual controls are associated with each dose. The data cards contain the identification number (two 4-digit numbers), the dose administered, the number of animals observed and the number that responded, and if individual checks were used, the number of animals observed and the number that responded in the check associated with the listed dose. Output consists of the identification numbers listed on the data cards, the dose administered, the percentage of animals responding adjusted for response in the control, the perccntage rcsponse in the control, the number of animals observed, and the number that responded to the 1 In cooperation with the Mississippi Agricultural Experiment Station. "Entomologist. Entomology Research Division, Agr. Res. Sen'., USDA, State College, Mississippi. 3 Programmer', Computing Center, Mississippi State Univer· sity, State College, Mississippi. POTENCY PROBIT ANALYSls.-The 2nd program fits from 2 to 10 parallel log-probit regression lines, each line containing from 2 to 20 doses and as many as 999,999 animals/ dose. Input consists of a main parameter card which instructs the computer in the number of log-probit regression lines comprising the set of data and of 2-10 subsets of data each of which is preceded by a subparameter card which instructs the computer in the number of doses comprising the probit-regression line. The subparameter cards are identical to the parameter cards used in fitting a single probit regression line, and the data cards are completely compatible with either program. The subparameter cards contain the number of animals that were observed and that responded in the control or whether individual controls were used with each dose. 365 Output consists of the identification numbers listed on the cards, the doses administered, the percentage of animals that responded adj usted for the control, the [Jercent- Table I.-Example of computer output: fitting a single line of dose-mortality data (SENSE SWITCH 1 off). =====================================~--*~~.= PROBITANALYSIS]\IAXIMUMLIKEUHOOD DOSE IDE III .050000 90 .075000 90 .100000 90 .250000 90 90 .500000 ANALYSISOFLINEARREGRESSION SOURCEOF VARIATIONOF TOTAL 4 REGRESSION 1 DEVREGRESSION 3 ITERATIONS 3 IDE 1 IDE 1 LD-30 LD-30 LD-70 LD-90 NETRESPONSE 54.612546 70.436066 90.103794 98.401658 99.999993 SUJ\lOFSQUARES 273.974930 259.344680 14.630250 SLOPE 3.198934 T05 3.182000 STANDARD ERROR 2.208336 CHECK 0.000000 1.000000 2.000000 3.000000 4.000000 OBSERVED 542. 492. 464. 516. 486. ... ~--:--:-=_~-- RESPONDED 296. 348. 419. 508. 486. MEANSQUARE 10.130000 53.179818 2.810000 259.344680 4.876750 SUMOFNW 842.758970 MEANDOSE -1.142691 ssxx 25.343498 G .190394 F05 FCAL CHI SQUARE MEANRESPONSE 5.607664 SSXY 81.072200 STDERROR SLOPE .438663 UPPERLlJ\UT .042524 .056907 .081360 .181477 LD .031872 .046488 .067807 .116945 LOWERLlMIT .016283 .030916 .054941 .094674 age response in the control, and the number of animals set of data. If the lines are parallel, the computer comobserved that responded to each dose. If SENSE SWITCH putes and prints the potencies (obtained by dividing the 1 is on, an intermediate output is obtained after each LD"" of the 1st line by the LD50 of the 2nd and each succycle of iteration. This output consists of the number of ceeding line) and their 950/0 confidence limits before proiterations, the slope, the sum of squares and cross prodceeding to read the main parameter card for the next set ucts of the log-dose and probit-response, and the sum of of data. the weighting coefficients. If SENSE SWITCH 1 is off, the CHECK, ZEROS, AND ONE HUNDREDs.-In both prointermediate output is bypassed, and no output is obtained grams, automatic provision has been made to handle Oro until the last and next-to-Iast slope values agree within and 100% responses to a dose by substituting 0.0001 or ±0.00005, or until 40 cycles of iteration have been com0.9999, respectively, after adj ustment for the check has pleted. After convergence or 40 cycles of iteration, the been made in the Oth cycle of iteration. Thereafter, the sum of squares, the cross products, and the slope of each observed responses (P) and the percentage response corlog-probit line is printed and is immediately followed by responding to the computed line (p) are used (see equathe pooled values for each of these sums of squares and tions below) so that the sums of squares for deviations the common slope. from regression are:::; nw (P -p) '. The computer then presents the weighted means of the Occasionally, the e.,xperimenter has valid independent log-dose and probit-response, the sum of the weighting checks for each dose. Provision is made in both programs coefficients, and the intercept for each regression line. for handling this situation, and it is initiated by punching Then the analysis is summarized in an analysis of linear 0.9 in the parameter card in the field that is set aside for regression format, which includes the degrees of freedom, entering the number of animals that responded in the conthe sum of squares, the critical values of F05, and Chi trol. The control values (numbers) for each dose are square for parallelism and homogeneity (all at the 5ro then entered on each data card. probability level); the computer presents the number of \%en responses less than 0% or greater than 100% are iterations completed, the value of t"" [= Student's "t" obtained after adjustment for the control, the computer with :::;(K-I) -1 degrees of freedom if heterogeneous or continues to read the remaining data cards and to print 1.96 if homogeneous], the standard error, and the standthe adj usted responses before branching to the next set of ard error of the slope, and finally the LD30,s. 50'S, 70'S. and data. A negative response after adjustment for the conOO's for each line before testing for significance of regrestrol indicates that: (1) an error was made in punch ing sion. If the regression is not significant the computer the data, (2) the check was overestimated, or (3) the prints NONSIGNIFICANTREGRESSIONand proceeds to read response to a dose was underestimated. If (2) or (3) has the main parameter card for the next set of data. Again, occurred, the e.,xperimenter, in consultation with a bioa nonsignificant regression indicates the relationship between the log-dose and probit-response is not defined by metrician, must decide what to do with the data. Correction for the check by use of Abbott's formula assumes the data. If the regression is significant, the computer that the check is known without error. tests for parallelism of the regression lines. If the lines are not parallel, the computer prints LINES NOT PARALLEL A zero response or absence of a control is also autoand proceeds to read the main parameter card of the next matically provided for regardless of whether the control 366 aPllcars with each dose or a single control has been used for carh line. of critical values of to., F ••, and Chi square (5% probability level) with automatic look-up (based on the degrees of freedom which are computed from a card count). This latter feature eliminates the need to search 3 separate tables for critical values and to enter them on the parameter cards. If 1 or more doses or 1 or more lines are to be deleted, only the parameter card needs to be repunched, and only 1 number on this card needs to be changed. PR"crsION OF PROGRA~I.-Empirical probits are computed by using a polynomial approximation (Hastings 1955) with 0.0001 and 0.9999 substituted for 0% and 100'70 responses, respectively, after adjustment for the control by Abbott's formulae. The weighting coefficients are obtained from: NZ' NW= Q(P + Cfl-C) COMPUTINGTIME.-Computing time for either program depends on the number of doses and the number of iterations required for convergence. Problems containing 0% and 100'10 responses usually take longer (because they require additional iterations) than those that do not. The computing time required to fit a single line of 5 doses is usually less than 1 min with 3-4 cycles of iteration on an IBM 1620 Model 2 equipped with a 1443 series on-line printer. Running time for the example (Table 1) was 12.5 sec with SENSE SWITCH Ion. Proportionally greater computing time should be anticipated for larger problems or for a greater number of cycles of iteration. In contrast, a person familiar with the calculations will need from 4 to 8 hr to properly complete a probit analysis for a single line with 5 points on a desk calculator, and then his results will only approximate the values that can be obtained by the computer in 4 cycles of iteration. An estimated 24 man hours would be required with a desk calculator to approximate the values obtained in the 2nd example (Table 2); with the computer, the completed analysis was obtained in 1 min, 20 sec with SENSESWITCH Ion. (1) where N is the number of animals that received a particular dose, P = 1-Q is the proportion that responded, C is the proportion that responded in the control, and , Z 1 = vi:; exp ( - (YP;- 5)" ) (2) where YP is the provisional probit obtained from the weighted provisional probit regression line, that is, YP = A BX, where X is the logarithm of the dose that produced the predicted response, and A and B are the intercept and slope of the weighted probit regression line. + The 1st set of provisional probits is obtained from a weighted linear regression of empirical probits on logdose. The Z's used in the weighting of empirical probits are obtained by substituting empirical probits for provisional probits in (2). From these provisional probits the 1st set of working probits is computed as follows: YW = p-P YP +-Z (3) where p is the proportion corresponding to the provisional probit (YP) and P is the observed proportion that responded. These provisional probits are in turn regressed on the log-dose to obtain the 2nd set of provisional probits. This recycling (iterating) continues until the difference between the last and ne..'Ct-to-last slope values, B, is less than 0.00005. The proportion p is obtained by using a polynomial approximation where accuracy is ± 1XlO-u within the limits of 0.000,001>p<0.999,999. The precision of estimating a proportion corresponding to a provisional probit is important in computing weighting coefficients as well as working probits and thus in the overall precision of the analysis. The precision of this program is far superior to that obtainable by using existing tables and greatly exceeds the precision of most bioassays. OUTSTANDINGFEATURESOF PROGRAlI1s.-The outstanding features of these programs are (I) a neatly labeled and well-organized output that contains sufficient information to permit checking of the input data, to permit plotting the original data and the computed dose-mortality lines, and to allow spotting those data which cause invalidity and rejection of data if such occurs; (2) the inclusion of numerous checks which permit the analyses to be completed only when the data are statistically valid; (3) prucedures and checks which permit handling almost any set of data without operator intervention; (4) complete compatibility of parameter and data cards with either program, which permits the fitting of individual lines when nonparallel ism occurs without the necessity of repunching a single card, and (5) the inclusion of tables \'\Then the response to 3 doses falls into certain patterns (0%, P%, P%; P%, P%, 100%; 0%, P%, 100%; 0%, 0%, P%; or P%, 100%, 100%), convergence may be slow or may not occur at all. Then the program permits as many as 30 cycles of iteration before attempting to complete the remaining calculations. A response of 20%, 50%, 70% to equally spaced doses (on the logarithmetic scale) requires only a single iteration, and occasionally 0%, 50%, 100% responses will fall into this same category and require only 1 cycle of iteration (1st cycle is not counted because empirical probits rather than provisional pro bits are regressed on the log-dose). With the probit analysis program for fitting a single dose-response line, the number of floating point digits carried in the computer is usually sufficient so that no reduction in the number of cycles of iteration occurs when additional digits are used. However, with the potency probit analysis program, a reduction in the number of cycles of iteration (computing time) may result when a large number of floating point digits are used with large sets of data. For small problems (i.e., few lines and few doses), a reduction in computing time will probably not occur when an increased number of digits is used. Additional time will be required with either program if the intermediate output is obtained after each cycle of iteration. This intermediate output is useful in deducing the cause of rejection of the data, especially when regression is nonsignificant, or in discovering which line or lines are not parallel; the biologist, in consultation with the biometrician, may then decide to omit the nonparallel line or to fit each line individually. ApPLICATIONOF BIOASSAy,-The usefulness of a simple bioassay is limited to the determination of the LDr.o •• and their confidence limits. The application of a computer program for summarization of such data is obvious. The 367 Table 2.-Example of computer output: fittmg 4 parallel lines of dose-mortality -. -- --= .•.'--=......-:--:-=--- POTENCY PROBITANALYSIS MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD LINE ID NET RESPONSE DOSE 3 1 .064260 22.413793 1 .073440 49.999999 3 1 .082620 3 99.999999 data. -- CHECK 3.333333 3.333333 3.333333 OBSERVED 60. 60 . 60. RESPONDED 15. 31. 60. 3 3 3 2 2 2 .082620 .091800 .101000 16.666666 60.344827 92.857142 0.000000 3.333333 6.666666 60. 60. 60. 10. 37 . 56. 3 3 3 3 3 3 .101900 .109800 .117600 3.333333 21.666666 48.333333 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 60 . 60 . 60. 2. 13. 29. 3 3 3 4 4 4 .235200 .313600 .392000 3.773584 48.076923 99.999999 11.666666 13.333333 15.000000 60 . 60. 60. 9. 33. 60. IDENT 3 3 3 3 IT 2" 3 4 5 6 7 3 3 SLOPE 26.23435 26.46940 26.48641 26.48746 26.48752 26.48753 LINE NO. 1 2 3 4 TOTAL DOSES 3 3 3 3 LINE NO. 1 2 3 4 DOSES 3 3 3 3 SSYY 195.45051 181.38863 179.20471 179.04758 179.03798 179.03741 SSyy 61.17713 66.75816 31.55786 19.54424 179.03741 XBAR -1.141577 -1.043086 - .950319 - .496542 ANALYSIS OF LINEAR REGRESSION SOURCEVARIATION DF TOTAL 8 REGRESSION 1 DEV REGRESSION 4 PARALLELISM 3 IT 7 G .146940 IDENT 3 3 3 3 LINE 1 2 3 4 IDENT 3 3 3 LINE 2 3 4 • SENSE SWITCH 1 turned SSREG 49.46914 66.71966 31.35372 18.88712 166.42964 ST.OPF. 23.78048 27.70875 27.81115 30.20917 26.48753 INTERCE.PT 35.~26587 32.750389 29.578746 18.319947 SNW 63.934992 83.347917 80.314669 32.486764 7.710 52.444 9.490 2.810 165.301334 3.151940 .376105 T05 2.776000 POTENCY 1.261932 1.662559 4.424228 UPPER LIMIT 1.364538 1.828685 4.890829 LD90 .079372 .100163 .131961 .351163 LD70 .074316 .093782 .123555 .328792 LD50 .071004 .089602 .118049 .314140 --------- - ~ -._._----~- F05 FCAL CHI SQ CHI SQ SLOPE 26.487530 STDEB 3.657567 STDE 1.775370 Oth and 1st cycle of iteration SSNW 271.13021 261.50734 260.18477 260.09046 260.08469 260.08434 MS SS 179.037411 165.301334 12.607761 1.128315 usefulness of a more complex bioassay in which and their ratios are obtained from parallel probit sion lines is not so obvious, probably because the and tedious calculations have prevented wider use technique. SSXX .08747 .08689 .04053 .02069 .23560 SSXY 2.08024 2.40789 1.12737 .62521 6.24072 YBAR 5.189027 5.121613 4.407139 5.167763 LD30 .067840 .085610 .112788 .300141 on after SSXX .26612 .23955 .23588 .23562 .23561 .23560 SSXY 6.98169 6.34083 6.24778 6.24115 6.24074 6.24072 SSREG 184.13357 168.94090 166.60800 166.44048 166.43026 166.42964 ~ LOWERLIMIT 1.169400 1.547336 4.004691 completed. LD.., •• regresdifficult of this Potency is the ratio of equally effective doses (LD.., ••, for example) and is most used in the bioassay of drugs where a chemical method is normally not available, for example, to determine whether various batches of vitamins are equally potent. Parallel probit-regression lines and the determination of potency may also be useful to 368 measure the increase in resistance (tolerance) to an insecticide or the degrees of resistance in various populations of an insect species. Parallel line assays are also useful in describing the susceptibility of an insect to a single toxicant at different stadi or the influence of such factors as light, temperature, and nutrition on susceptibility to an insecticide. Potency probit analysis may also be used to measure the loss of an insecticide residue such as occurs in DrosoPhila mclallogaster Meigen or brine shrimp (Lippold 1965). In this latter application, confidence limits can be placed around the residue value. Potency, however, cannot be calculated from probit- simplest of situations is urged to consult with a biometrician for aid in planning such experiments. rcgn'ssion lincs which arc not parallel (c.f. Finney 1966), nor can complex experimental designs be used with paralIcl linc assays. Cards containing the source statement for either or both of these programs may be obtained by writing to Richard ]. Daum, Boll \"1 eevil Research Laboratory, P. O. Box 5367, State College, Mississippi 39762. The c.."\':perimentercontemplating the use of more than 1 insecticide, true replications, and other such factors in l'Ombination, is urged to consider a factorial set of treatments with the levels of the insecticide (say LD ••, LD ••, LD,.) as 1 factor. The same dose need not be used for each insecticide; instead the dose producing the same response should be selected. A preliminary experiment may he necessary to determine these doses. The percentage reSll0nse (mortality) may then be transformed to equivalent angles to eliminate unequal variances, and the transformcd data may then be subjected to an analysis of variance. Lack of parallelism will be suggested (but not proved or tested) by significance of the interaction of doses with other factors in the experiment. In such experiments, care should be taken to assure the use (treatment) of the same numbers of insects. Thus the experimentl'r contemplating dose-mortality data for any but the REFERENCES CITED Daum, R. J., C. Givens, and G. Bearden. 1961. Probit Analysis. Biometrical Services, ARS, OA, Beltsville, Maryland. (mimeo) (not available). Finney, D. J. 1962. Probit Analysis. Cambridge Uni· versity Press, 318 p. 1966. The meaning of bioassay. Biometrics 21 (4) : 785-98. Hastings, Cecil, Jr. 1955. Approximation for digital computers. Princeton University Press, 201 p. Lippold, P. C. 1965. Biological analysis of pesticide residues. N. Y. State Agr. Exp. Sta. Farm Res. 31 (3) : 8-9. A. I. B. S.-CAMPBELL AWARD FOR RESEARCH RELATlNG TO VEGETABLE PRODUCfION publication in a recognized scientific journal, 1tot more than two years prior to the date of granting the Award. The American Institute of Biological Sciences and the Campbell Soup Company are again sponsoring the annual Camphl'll Award for outstanding research relating to vegetable crop production. The following is the explanation and call for nominations for the A ward to be made in the summer of 1967. 6. Nominations for the Award shall be by the colleagues of candidates or other appropriate persons affiliated with established research organizations. 7. The Award Committee Chairman shall receive and circulate manuscripts to all Committee members. Selection of the annual winner shall be the sole rcsponsibility of the Award Committee. Judgement to be based on the potential or immediate importance of the study for either economic or purely scientific purposes. 1. The Award shall consist of a bronze medal, a cash amount of $1,500, and travel expenses for the recipient to the annual AIBS meeting. 2. The Award is known as the AIBS-Campbell Award amI it will be presented at the general session of the annual AIBS meeting. If the society to which the recipient belongs meets with the AIBS, then both the medal and check will be presented at the general session. If the society meets separately, then the medal will be presented at the AIBS meeting and the check at the meeting of the society. 8. Deadline: Nominations for the 1967 Award must be in the hands of the Chairman of the AlBS-Campbell Award Committee, F. P. Cullinan, American Institute of Biological Sciences, 3900 Wisconsin Avenue, N.W., Washington, D. C. 20016, on or before July 1. 1967. 3. The ArBS is sponsoring the Award for a period of no less than 5 consecutive years, the first AIBSCampbell Award having been presented in August 1963. 4. The Award Committee consists of seven (7) membcrs. The AIBS selects the Chairman and each of the following societies nominate one (1) representative to serve on the Committee: American Phytopathological Society American Society for Horticultural Science Al11l'rican Society of Agronomy Amcrican Society of Plant Physiologists Entomological Society of America Genetics Society of America 5. The basis of the Award shall be as follows: For an outstanding single research contribution, of either fundamental or practical significance relative to the production of vegetable crops for processing purposes, in the fields of horticulture, genetics, soil science, plant physiology, entomology, plant pathology or other appropriate scientific areas. Work in food technology and food processing are /lot included; the emphasis is on basic research and applications thereof variously concerned with crop production prior to crop utilization or crop processing. The one or more papers reporting this single research to have been published or the manuscript accepted for NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES The New York Academy of Sciences will sponsor a conference entitled, "B iological Effects of Pesticides" at the Vhldorf Astoria Hotel in New York City on May 2-5, 1967. World authorities will be invited to discuss the various facets of the conference. Address inquiries to the Executive Director, the New York Academy of Sciences, 2 East 63rd Street, New York, N. Y. 10021. INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF ENTOMOLOGY Reference to the International Congress of Entomology in Moscow, Russia was made in the March and in the June 1966 issues of the BULLETIN. The time was given as August 1968. \Ve have now learned the exact dates. These are August 23-30, 1968. INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE FAIR The 18th International Science Fair will be held in San Francisco, California on May 10-13, 1967. Each year the Entomological Society of America presents a $100 U. S. Savings Bond and a copy of the current issue of the ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENTOMOLOGY to the student who is judged to have the best entomological exhibit. A judging committee will be selected by the Chairman of the Society's Committee Oft Youth Activities. A visit to this Fair is suggested to ESA members in the Bay area. 369
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