The Robustness of the Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square Test for Structural Equation Models: A Meta-Analysis Author(s): Douglas A. Powell and William D. Schafer Reviewed work(s): Source: Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, Vol. 26, No. 1 (Spring, 2001), pp. 105132 Published by: American Educational Research Association and American Statistical Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3657940 . Accessed: 15/09/2012 17:44 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp . JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. . American Educational Research Association and American Statistical Association are collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics. http://www.jstor.org Journalof Educational andBehavioralStatistics Vol. 2001, 26, No. 1,pp. 105-132 Spring The Robustness of the Likelihood Ratio Chi-Square Test for Structural Equation Models: A Meta-Analysis Douglas A. Powell William D. Schafer Universityof Maryland,College Park structural robustness, equations Keywords:meta-analysis, The robustnessliteraturefor the structuralequation model was synthesizedfol- lowingthe methodof Harwellwhichemploysmeta-analysisas developedby ontheexplanation HedgesandVevea.Thestudyfocused ofempiricalTypeI error ratesfor six principal classes of estimators: two that assume multivariatenor- leastsquares),ellipticalestimators, likelihoodandgeneralized mality(maximum two distribution-freeestimators (asymptoticand others), and latent projection. Generally,the chi-square testsfor overall modelfit werefound to be sensitive to non-normalityand the size of the model for all estimators (with the possible exceptionof the elliptical estimatorswith respectto modelsize and the latentpro- Theasymptotic distributionjectiontechniqueswithrespectto non-normality). free (ADF)and latentprojectiontechniqueswerealsofoundto be sensitiveto samplesizes. Distribution-freemethodsotherthanADF showed,in general, much less sensitivityto all factors considered. The use of meta-analyticmethods to summarizeMonte Carlo(MC) robustness and power studies was suggested by Harwell (1992). The rationalefor the use of this procedurewas to correctdefects typically associatedwith the use of MC studies. The generalmeta-analyticframeworkof Hedges andOlkin (1985) permitsthe modeling of both empirical Type I errorrates and power values that have been reportedin MC studies, by means of weighted least squaresregressionanalyses. Various study characteristicsserve as explanatoryvariables. Harwell (1992) applied the procedureto synthesize the results of MC studies of the robustnessof the Bartletttests for homogeneityof variancesagainstviolation of the normalityassumption.A second applicationwas providedby Harwell, Rubinstein,Hayes, and Olds (1992), who meta-analyzed34 studies that involved robustnessfor the F test, the Welch test, and the Kruskal-Wallistest for the oneway ANOVA model and the F test for two-way ANOVA. A thirdapplicationof the Harwell (1992) procedure was the work of Keselman, Lix, and Keselman (1993), who synthesized findings of 15 differentstudies on the robustnessof four differenttest statistics used in repeatedmeasuresdesigns. An area of much attentionin the statisticalliteratureis the structuralequation model (SEM) (Jtreskog, 1973), which has been shown to have a diversityof applications in many domains(e.g., education,psychology, sociology, criminology).In 105 Powell and Schafer the psychometricfield the model has had an impact in increasedusage of confirmatoryfactoranalysis(CFA).This modeling strategypermitsthe testingof particularfactormodelswherethe observedvariablesaremodeledas a linearcombination of a set of latent variables(factors).More complex models permit modeling the structureof latentvariables. The estimatesof modelparametersfor SEM areobtainedby the minimizationof a fittingfunctionbasedon a given estimationmethod(see "EstimationMethodsfor SEM").Assessmentof modelfit is accomplishedvia the likelihoodratiochi-square statistic.The appropriatevalue of the chi-squarefit statisticis calculatedby multiplying the fittingfunctionfor the estimationmethodby n - 1, where n represents the sample size. The formulafor the likelihoodratiochi-squareis thus given by: x2 = (n- 1)F,, (1) where F, representsthe fittingfunctionfor estimationmethodcc. The sensitivity of the chi-squaretest to deviations from multivariatenormality andto otherfactorssuch as small sample size, underdifferentestimationmethods, has received a considerableamountof attentionvia Monte Carlo(MC) studies(see "FactorsAffecting Type I ErrorRates for SEM").This study attemptsa synthesis of thatrobustnessliterature. Estimation Methods for SEM Normal TheoryEstimators The normaltheoryestimatorsassume the data are sampledfrom a multivariate normaldistribution.The methodof maximumlikelihood (ML) is one of the more common estimationmethodsused in SEM. Anothercommon estimationmethod for SEM is the methodof generalizedleast squares(GLS).Both methodsare summarizedby Bollen (1989). The fittingfunctionsfor these two estimationmethods are: FML= lntL(8)l+ tr[S2-7'(0)]- InlSI- (p + q), (2) where 1(0) = the populationcovariancematriximplied by the model, S = the sample covariancematrixfor observedvariables, p = the numberof observedexogenous variables,and q = the numberof observedendogenousvariables. FGLS= .50tr({[S - (O)]W-1}2), (3) where Wis a weight matrixthatis typically chosen to be equal to S, althoughany positive definitematrixof constantsor any matrixthatconverges in probabilityto a positive definite matrixmay be used. A special case of GLS is the unweighted 106 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels least squaresestimator,ULS, which occurs when W is taken to be equal to I, the identitymatrix. Elliptical Estimators The elliptical estimators assume the multivariatedistributionof the observed datais symmetricbut permitsunivariatekurtosesthatdeviate from the kurtosisof a normaldistribution.However,the same univariatekurtosisparameteris assumed for all observedvariables.Fourellipticalestimatorshave been studiedand aresummarizedby Harlow (1985). These estimators (El, E2, E3, E4) differ only in the methodby which the commonkurtosisparameteris estimated(Harlow, 1985). The fittingfunctionfor the elliptical estimatorsis given by Bollen (1989): FE = .50(K + l)-'tr{[S - Z(O)]W-'}2 - C{tr[S - l()]W-'}2, (4) where K is the common kurtosisparameter,C1is a constantcomputed by means of K,p, andq, and Wis the weight matrix,which is typically selected to be the sample covariancematrix,S. The four differentestimatorsof the common univariate kurtosisparameterare given by Harlow (1985). The first estimator(k1)is given by the Mardia(1970) coefficient of multivariate relative kurtosis minus unity [see (15) below]. The second estimator (KC2)is given by: K2 = (S2S4)(S2S2) - 1, (5) where s2 is a vector with elements (susji+ sikSjl+ silsjk) and s4 is a vector with elements(Sijkl),wheresijis the samplecovariancefor variablesi,j andsijklis the fourthordersample productmomentfor variablesi, j, k, 1. The thirdestimator(iK3) is the mean of the scaled univariatekurtoses.The scaled univariatekurtosis(y2) involves the ratio of the fourthsample moment for a variable to the squareof the second sample moment of that variable,with three subtractedfrom the resultingratio.The estimatorK3 is thus given (forp variables)by: P K3 = i=1 2i /3p , (6) wherey2,iis the scaled univariatekurtosisfor the ith variable. The fourthestimator(k4)is given by: K4 i=1 , Kjkl /m (7) = (Sijkl)/(SijSkl + SikSjil + SilSjk),with sil and Sijkldefined as in (5) and m = where Kijkl p(p + 1)(p + 2)(p + 3)/24. 107 Powell and Schafer In additionto the trueellipticalestimators,five elliptically correctedestimators have been studied.These estimatorsproducetheirchi-squarestatisticsby dividing a normaltheorychi-squarestatisticby one of the estimatorsof the common kurtosis parameterplus unity. The estimators CML1, CML2, CML3, and CML4 involve the correctionby division of the ML estimatorfor non-normalkurtosis, wherethe correctionfactorinvolves one of the fourestimatorsof the common kurtosis. The elliptically correctedquadraticform estimator(CQF) involves the use of the firstestimateof the common univariatekurtosisto correctthe GLS estimator by means of division. Distribution-FreeEstimators The distribution-freeestimatorsmakeminimalor no assumptionsaboutthe populationdistributionof the observedvariablesother than thatthey have a continuous probabilitydensity function.In otherwords, these estimatorstypically permit both non-normalskewness and non-normalkurtosis. The most widely used of the distribution-freeestimators is the asymptotic distribution-free(ADF) estimator(Browne, 1984). Anotherdistribution-freeestimator is the DADF estimatorpresentedin Henly (1991). This estimatorhas the same fittingfunctionas ADF butreplacesf by a weight matrixcontainingonly the diagonalelements ofIF. The fittingfunctionto be minimizedfor ADF is given by Harlow (1985): FADF= (s* - *)t 1(s* - *), (8) wheres* is a (p + q)(p + q + 1)/2 column vectorcontainingthe nonredundantelementsof S and cY*is a (p + q)(p + q + 1)/2 columnvectorcontainingthe nonredundantelementsof X(O).F is a weightmatrixwhose elementsaregiven by: = Y"ijkl Yijkl - Gij(klY , (9) where = E[(yi - gi)(Yj - pj)(Yk - Pk)(YI- 91)], - i)(yj and Yij= E[(yi •gl)], aijki =i= E(yi). IFis obtainedby replacingthe populationmoments by the correspondingsample moments. Otherapproachesare groupedunderthe distribution-freerubric.The heterogeneous kurtosisestimator(HK) was utilizedby Hu, Bentler,and Kano (1992). This estimatorrequiresa symmetricdistributionbut, unlike the elliptical estimators, permitsthe univariatekurtosisparametersto be different for the observed variables. The fittingfunctionfor HK is given by: FHK= .50tr[S- 108 ()iC'•]2, (10) Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels where C = A*S and* indicatorselementwisemultiplicationformatricesof sameorder, A = (da), and + 2,j1/22 a2 [(i2,i1/)2 = The SCALED estimator, developed by Satorra and Bentler (1988) and also employedby Hu et al. (1992), uses a correctiontechniquesimilarto the elliptically correctedestimators.However, the estimatorpermitsan arbitrarycontinuousdistribution.The techniqueinvolves the division of the ML chi-squarestatistic by a factorof k. The factork is given by: k = UF-', (11) whereU = IF- 'P-1,and a is the vectorof model impliedeleT-)) F'mentsof the covariancematrix(1) and F is the weightmatrixfor ADF. LatentProjectionEstimators The latent projectionestimators attemptto estimate the parametersof a SEM with continuous variables that have been either categorized or censored by the measurementprocess. The CVM methodof Muthen(1984) whichwas studiedby Potthast(1991) is used with categoricalobservedvariables.This method,featuredin the computerpackage LISCOMP,operatesessentiallyby analyzingthe matrixof polychoriccorrelations by means of the GLS estimationmethod. A similar approachis employed by the LISREL computerpackage and is denoted the WLS PRELIS estimator(Dolan, 1994). The TOBIT approachis a final latent projectiontechnique,which involves the fittingof the SEM for the underlyingcontinuousvariablesif the observedvariables have been censored.This approachwas developed by Muthen(1985). Factors Affecting Type I Error Rates for SEM From an assessment of the exact theoreticalassumptionsfor the various estimationmethods, it follows that the empiricalType I errorratesfor normaltheory estimatorsshouldbe sensitive to deviationsfrommultivariatenormality.Likewise, the elliptical estimatorsshould be sensitive to skewness, thoughperhapsnot kurtosis. Both the distribution-freeand latentprojectionmethodsare not theoretically dependent on any particulardistributionalform; however, this claim requires empiricalconfirmation. Because of the size of the weight matrixassociated with both the distributionfree and the latentprojectiontechniques,these estimationclasses should be associated with computationaldifficulties for large models (i.e., those with many estimatedparameters-typically assessed in MC studiesby degreesof freedomfor the model). These computationaldifficultiesmay lead to inflatedchi-squarevalues for these estimationmethods (Muthen& Kaplan, 1992; Potthast,1991). 109 Powell and Schafer Lastly, sample size has been cited as a complicationin the attainmentof proper chi-squarevalues for SEM models (Harlow, 1985). Sample size was investigated in a majorMC study by Boomsma (1983) for normaltheory (ML) estimatorsand by Henly (1991) and Hu et al. (1992) for a varietyof otherestimationmethods.In general, normaltheory estimatorshave shown limited sensitivity to sample size, while distribution-freemethods,particularlythe ADF method,have shown inflated chi-squarevalues at low sample sizes. Meta-Analysis of Structural Modeling Robustness Literature Problem Formulation The fundamentalresearchquestion for this study was: What factors explain empirical Type I errorrates for the chi-square tests in MC studies of structural equationmodels?Forthe purposesof this study,to be considereda structuralequation model, a model must contain at least one continuouslatent variable (i.e., no studies involving only observedvariableswere included). EmpiricalType I error rates were modeled by meta-analytictechniques.Explanatoryvariableswere various studycharacteristics. Data Collection A populationof MC studiesfor linearstructuralmodels was identifiedby searching variousdatabases.The databasessearchedwere: ERIC,DissertationAbstracts International,Psyclit, Econolit,Sociofile, BusinessIndex,LIFE,and Mathsci.Key words used in the searchesinclude:LISREL,LISCOMP,EQS, Monte Carlo,chisquare,robustness,simulation,multivariate,normality,nonnormality,skewness, kurtosis, asymptotic distribution-free,maximum likelihood, generalized least squares,two-stageleast squares,ADF, ML, GLS, 2SLS, factoranalysis, structural equationsmodeling, Type I error,and covariancestructures. The databaseswere searchedby each of the keywords. Items were examinedby means of the abstractprovidedin the database.If an item could not be positively excluded as an eligible studybased on the readingof the abstract,its citation was recordedand the correspondingarticle, conference paper, dissertation,or technical reportwas examined.A total of 219 reportswere selected for examination. These studies were examined to determine:(a) did the model that was investigated qualify as a structuralequationmodel? (i.e., did it contain at least one continuouslatentvariable?);(b) did the methodologyof the studyinvolve MonteCarlo methods?;(c) could multivariateskewness and multivariatekurtosisbe estimated for the data;and(d) assumingthe use of MonteCarlomethods,did the studyreport empiricalType I errorrates?If the answerto either(a), (b) or (c) was no, the study was excluded.If the answersto (a), (b), and (c) were yes, but the answerto (d) was no, the authorof the studywas contacted(if possible) to obtainthe empiricalType I error rates. Five studies fell into this category and in one case (i.e., Benson & Fleishman, 1994), the empiricalType I errorrateswere obtainedfrom the authors (J. Fleishman, personal communication,July 10, 1995). In four other cases, the 110 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels authorswere unableto provideempiricalType I errorrates.However, in one case an applicablestudy was obtainedfrom an author(J. Finch, personalcommunication, August 5, 1995) and includedin the study. Additionally, five journals were searcheddirectly by examining every article appearingin them since 1980. These journalswere: Applied Psychological Measurement,BritishJournalofMathematicaland StatisticalPsychology,Multivariate BehavioralResearch,Psychological Bulletin,and Psychometrika.These journals were chosen becausethey were majorjournalsin the field of quantitativemethods and were the most commonjournalsin which applicablestudieswere found. The foregoing proceduresyielded 25 applicablestudies. As a final component of the search,five scholarsin the field of structuralequationsmodeling were contacted, suppliedwith a list of these 25 studies, and asked to supply the references for any additional studies that met the criteriafor applicability. These scholars were: Dr. PeterBentler,Dr. Anne Boomsma,Dr. Lisa Harlow,Dr. David Kaplan, andDr. Bengt Muthen.As a resultof these communications,one additionalapplicable studywas received (P. Bentler,personalcommunication,September8, 1995). Those cases with empirical Type I errorrates equal to either zero or one were excludedfromthe meta-analysisbecausethese cases did not permitthe calculation of the samplingvariancefor the empiricalType I errorrate. Of the original 2089 cases, 161 were excluded for this reason. While only 26 studies were included in the meta-analysis, all of the studies yielded multipleempiricalType I errorrates.EachreportedempiricalType I error rate was treatedas a separatecase. Estimating Non-Normality Variables. Since the studies to be meta-analyzed employ differentnumbersof variableswith variouscombinationsof skewness and kurtosis(e.g., Harlowuses 13 differentcombinationsof univariateskewness and kurtosiswith six observed variables),it is necessaryto have indices of skewness and kurtosis that compactly representthe non-normalityof the data across all conditionsin themeta-analysis.Tihemultivariateskewnessandkurtosiscoefficients of Mardia(1970) wereused. Fora finitepopulationof size N, multivariateskewness and multivariatekurtosis(P2,p) are definedas follows: (Pp) 3 NN = •i,, N-2X t1 , - i=1 j=1 [(Yi -(Y - •y 2 NN p2.p = N-2Xi=1 (12) ,)] j=1 [(Yi - Ity) , (13) ly)t•-1(Yi where Y,= the ith multivariate(p variables)observationin the population, = the populationcentroidfor the p variables,and ty= p x p covariancematrixfor the p variables. 111 Powell and Schafer The sample estimatesfor P,p and 2,pin a sample of =n-2 [(Y - Y)S-(Y b., i=1 j=1 size n are given by: 3 - Y)] (14) 2 b2,p =n [( i=1 j=1 - S-'(Y - Y) , (15) where Y= the populationcentroidfor the p variables,and S = p x p sample covariancematrixfor the p variables. The values of Pi,pandP2,pare0 andp(p + 2), respectively,for a multinormaldistribution.Multivariaterelative kurtosis (Muthen & Kaplan, 1985) is defined as + 2)] and representsthe ratioof the multivariatekurtosisof a given disk2,p/[p(p to thatof a multivariatenormaldistribution. tribution Since the values of the multivariateskewness (MS) andthe multivariaterelative kurtosis(MRK)were notreportedin the studiesto be meta-analyzed,a programwas writtento estimatethem.In the multivariatenormalcase, the MS andMRK values were estimatedfor samplesizes of 1000 or less. For samplesizes greaterthan 1000, E(MS) andE(MRK)were used because,at or above this samplesize, estimatedvalues approximatedthe expectationsvery closely. The expected values of MS and MRKareequaltop(p + 1)(p + 2)/n and(n - 1)/(n+ 1), respectively(Mardia,1970). In the cases where non-normaldata were generated,two typical methods were observed. In the more typical scenario, data are generatedas multivariatenormal accordingto a "true"model covariancematrix.The dataaretheneithercategorized (i.e., into Likertscale type variables)or censored from above or below (only two studies involve censoring).In the less typical scenario,continuousdataare generated accordingto the "true"model covariancematrixwith prespecifiedunivariate skewness andkurtosiscoefficients.This is accomplishedby meansof the Vale and Maurelli(1983) procedureor by transformingdatafrom a multivariatenormaldistribution(e.g., multivariateX2or multivariatet). The studies availablefor the meta-analysisare listed in Table 1 along with several key variables. These variables include: Samp (the range of sample sizes is listed), Reps (the numberof replicationsemployed in the study), Skew/Kurt(the methodof inducingnon-normality,i.e., C = categorizationor censoring,V = ValeMaurelli,T = transformationof multinormaldata, N = multinormaldata), Model Size (the range of the degrees of freedom for the chi-squaretest that yielded the empirical Type I errorrates is listed), EstimationClass (N = normaltheory, E = elliptical estimationmethods,D = ADF andothermembersof the distribution-free class, L = latent projection),and # (the numberof cases for this study which met the criterionfor inclusion in the meta-analysis,i.e., the empiricalType I errorrate is not equal to either zero or one). 112 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels TABLE 1 Availablestudies Study Samp Reps Skew/ Kurt Model Size Estim Class # T 4 300 1000 3 Satorra& Bentler N,D (1990) 300 75-9600 N148 T,N 5 Henly (1991) 200 219 150-5000 87-93 Hu et al. (1992) T,N N,E,D N 75-500 50 50-51 N 6 Silvia (1988) C 4 1050 100 60 Muthen (1989) N,D Chou & Bentler N N 4 100-800 1000 49 (1990) 500 20 20 8 Browne (1984) T,N N,E,D Yung & Bentler 250-500 200 47 87 T,N N,D (1994) Muthen & Kaplan 25 2 1000 16 C,N N,D (1985) Muthen & Kaplan 1000 500-1000 8-87 98 C,N N,D (1992) L 100 C 500-1000 32 Potthast(1991) 2-98 100 23 200 C 2-5 Brown (1989a) N,L 25-400 100 2 35 Brown (1989b) C,N N,D,L 200-400 100-300 8-14 Harlow (1985) 517 V,N N,E,D Chou, Bentler, & 100 V 72 200-400 8-14 Satorra(1991) N,E,D Harlow, Chou, & 100 200-400 48-60 79 Bentler (1986) V,N N,E,D Curran,West, & 200 100-1000 24 Finch (1995) 36 N,E,D V,N Waller & Muthen 100-1000 500 3 24 C,N N,E,D (1992) Yuan & Bentler 500 D 150-1000 87 36 T,N (1995) 100 N 300-1000 C 36 1 Salomaa (1990) 300 2 N Babakus (1985) 100-300 160 C,N Wendler (1993) 250-2000 50 C 26-100 31 N,L 100-1000 100 28-60 73 N,D,L C,N Kaplan(1991) 200-1000 100 C Dolan (1994) 20-104 86 N,L 4-20 N 25-800 100-300 94 Boomsma (1983) C,N of multinormal Note. Skew/Kurt= methodof inducingnonnormality data, (T = transformation N = multinormal). V = Vale-Maurelli, C = categorization, ModelSize = degreesof freedomfor model.EstimClass= generalclassof estimationmethod(N = normaltheory,E = ellipticalclass, L = latentprojection). # = numberof cases. D = distribution-free, 113 Powell and Schafer Data Evaluation The studies were screenedfor methodologicalcriteria.For example, if a study used an inadequatenumberof replicationsof the simulationprogram(e.g., Fuller andHemmerle(1966) used only a single replication),it would not affordsufficient data for estimation of Type I errorrate and was thus excluded from the analysis. Two aspects of the simulationprocess were scrutinizedas suggested by Harwell (1992). First, the data generationitself was evaluated(i.e., is an establishedrandom numbergeneratorbeing used, e.g., a IMSLFORTRANsubroutineor the simulation routine of a major structuralmodeling program such as LISCOMP [Muthen,1987]?) Second, do the patternof empiricalType I errorratesapproximate theirnominalvalues when all relevantassumptionshave been met? The Benson and Fleishman(1994) study was excluded from the meta-analysis on this basis. Of the eight cases in the study where normaldata were used, six of these cases hadempiricalType I errorratesmorethantwo standarderrorsin excess of the expected level of .05. All eight of the cases were more than one standard errorabove the expected level. This was truefor boththe ML andADF estimators. Thus, in accordancewith the recommendationsof Harwell (1992), the study was excluded because empiricalType I errorrateswere substantiallydeviantfrom the expected level when all assumptionswere met. In studies where multipleestimationmethodswere investigated,the same simulateddatawas often used to fit structuralmodels underdifferentestimationmethods. This leads to dependenciesamongthe empiricalType I errorrateswhich were calculatedfrom the same simulateddata. Data Analysis Mixed-effects regressionmodels were developed as describedin Hedges and Vevea(1998). Thedependentvariablefortheregressionmodelsis theempiricalType I errorrate.The empiricalTypeI errorrateis by definitiontheproportionof timesthat thechi-squarestatisticwas foundto rejectformodelfit (( = .05).The fittingof mixedeffects regressionmodelswas achievedthrougha two-stepprocedure.First,a fixedeffects model was fit to the data.This is a weightedleast squaresregressionmodel whereeachcase is weightedby theinverseof its samplingvariance(Hedges& Olkin, 1985).The samplingvariancefor an empiricalType I errorrateis equalto: Var(TYPE I) = (TYPE I)(1 - TYPE I)/REPS, (16) where REPS is the numberof replicationsused to generatethe data on which the empiricalTYPE I errorrate was computed. The various studycharacteristicsserve as explanatoryvariables.The regression equationfor a weighted least squaresregressionmodel is given by: (TYPE I)i = b0 + 114 p _ biX,. i=1 + ej, (17) Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels where bo= interceptterm, bi = slope term for ith explanatoryvariable, Xii= value of the ith explanatoryvariablefor thejth case, and ej = errorterm forjth case. After having fit a fixed-effects regression model, the QE statistic (Hedges & Olkin, 1985) is obtained and used to calculate an estimate of the between-study In the mixed-effects model, effect sizes have two variance component (i.e., ,2). sourcesof variation,a conditional samplingvariancecomponent,estimatedby (16) above, and a between-studyvariancecomponent,reflectingthe fact thatthe effect sizes includedin the meta-analysisarenot fixed but unknownconstants,butrather randomvariableswith a distributionof theirown (Hedges & Vevea, 1998). The t2 term incorporatesthe variationamong the effect sizes and is estimatedby r2 as follows (Hedges & Vevea, 1998): 2 = [QE- (k - 1)]/c =0 2 k -1 if QE if QE< k-l, (18) where = QE statisticfrom fixed-effects analysis, k = numberof effects sizes (empiricalType I rates)includedin the analysis, QE k k c= i=1 wi- i k (wi)2 i = wi , and wi = the weight for the ith effect size in the fixed-effects analysis [i.e., wi = the reciprocal of the fixed-effects sampling variance as given by (16)]. The unconditionalsamplingvarianceof an empiricalType I errorrateis thus: v* = v, + T2, (19) where vi = the conditionalsamplingvarianceestimatedby (16), and 1?= the between-studyvariancecomponentestimatedby (18). The properweights for the mixed-effects analysis arethen obtainedby reciprocating the estimatesof the v*, where the vi's are estimatedby (16) and the t2 terms are estimatedby (18). The mixed-effects models are "mixed"becausethe explanatory variablesare fixed variablesand the between-studyeffects are randomvariables. The analyses arethenrunagainwith the same explanatoryvariablesbut with the new regressionweights. 115 Powell and Schafer Analytical Scheme. The relevant literature as well as exploratory analyses suggested thatthe four majorfactorsin the explanationof empiricalType I error rates were: sample size, multivariateskewness, multivariatekurtosis, and model size. Additionally, different classes and subclasses of estimation methods are likely to be relevantin the explanationof empiricalType I errorrates. Based on these considerations,separaterandom-effectsregressionmodels were developed for eachof the following six classes of estimators:(1) MaximumLikelihood(ML), (2) GeneralizedLeast Squares (GLS), (3) Elliptical, (4) ADF, (5) DistributionFree (otherthanADF), and (6) LatentProjectionTechniques. The independentvariableswere the samplesize (SAMP),multivariateskewness (MS), multivariaterelative kurtosis (MRK), and model size as measuredby the degrees of freedom for the model (DF). Each of the independentvariables were enteredin both linearand quadraticforms. Foreach of the six regressionmodels, standardizedresidualswere calculatedby multiplyingthe rawresiduals(i.e., the actualobservedempiricalType I errorrates minus the correspondingpredictedType I errorrates) by the squareroots of the regressionweights (i.e., the l/v* terms). Standardizedresidualswith an absolute value greaterthan3.0 were examined. DescriptiveStatistics Univariatedescriptivestatisticsare reportedfor the majorvariablesin the study in Tables 2-6. The statisticsarereportedboth for the overalldataset as well as the six groupsfor which separateregressionmodels were developed(ML, GLS, Elliptical, ADF, Distribution-Free(non-ADF),LatentProjection). RegressionAnalyses As was outlinedpreviously (see "AnalyticalScheme"), mixed-effects models were systematically developed for each of the six different groups. Regression summarytables are presentedin Tables 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17. For each regression, the linearand quadratictermsof sample size, the linear and quadraticterms of multivariateskewness, the linear and quadraticterms of multivariaterelative TABLE2 statisticsfor empiricalTypeI errorrate Univariate descriptive SD Skew M Subclass Kurt N Overall ML .137 .131 .201 .176 2.980 3.226 8.548 11.166 1888 528 GLS Ellipt. ADF Non-ADF Latent .189 .068 .201 .118 .136 .258 .057 .241 .224 .170 2.084 2.696 2.078 3.012 2.838 3.155 10.890 3.432 8.016 8.284 278 482 281 172 125 Note. Non-ADF refersto Distribution-FreeEstimatorsotherthanADF. 116 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels TABLE 3 Univariatedescriptivestatisticsfor sample size Subclass M SD Skew Kurt N Overall ML GLS Ellipt. ADF Non-ADF Latent 668.62 517.14 806.84 571.58 875.98 981.98 531.60 1192.97 1033.64 1377.63 1134.54 1437.05 1377.41 394.65 4.911 6.419 4.560 5.604 4.113 2.147 1.447 28.473 47.940 23.856 35.983 19.418 3.450 2.568 1888 528 278 482 281 172 125 Note.Non-ADFrefersto Distribution-Free Estimators otherthanADF. TABLE 4 Univariatedescriptivestatisticsfor multivariateskewness Subclass M SD Skew Kurt N Overall ML ML(d) GLS Ellipt. ADF Non-ADF Latent 10.55 8.19 7.22 11.35 6.16 12.57 20.65 15.07 19.82 25.21 11.53 14.68 8.42 17.69 23.60 26.78 10.767 16.486 16.828 2.280 2.834 2.446 1.565 2.974 240.146 330.124 3.584 6.179 9.120 6.255 1.563 8.836 1888 528 527 278 482 281 172 125 estimators Note.Non-ADFrefersto distribution-free otherthanADF. skewness= 522 wasdeleted). ML(d)refersto statisticsforMLwhenoutlier(multivariate TABLE 5 Univariatedescriptivestatisticsfor MRK Subclass M SD Skew Kurt N Overall ML GLS Ellipt. ADF Non-ADF Latent 1.17 1.10 1.22 1.14 1.25 1.24 1.31 .38 .35 .48 .22 .38 .31 .69 4.672 5.616 4.571 1.430 3.500 2.606 3.225 33.844 52.581 26.272 1.091 21.225 11.418 11.324 1888 528 278 482 281 172 125 Note.Non-ADFrefersto distribution-free estimatorsotherthanADF;MRK,multivariate relative kurtosis. 117 Powell and Schafer TABLE 6 Univariatedescriptivestatisticsfor degrees offreedom Subclass M SD Skew Kurtosis Overall ML GLS Ellipt. ADF Non-ADF Latent 28.38 15.42 33.95 21.24 32.96 62.78 29.86 31.29 22.58 32.88 24.26 30.76 35.90 29.11 1.102 2.301 .679 1.972 .802 -.787 1.198 -.411 4.470 -1.138 2.449 -.895 -1.338 .482 N 1888 528 278 482 281 172 125 Note.Non-ADFrefersto distribution-free estimators otherthanADF. kurtosis,and the linearandquadratictermsof model size (degrees of freedom)are reported.These tables reportresults for each independentvariableif it is entered firstand for each independentvariableif it is enteredlast. In each of Tables 7, 9, 11, 13, 15, and 17, the AQRis presentedfor each of the variables.Additionallythe QEstatisticis presented.This statisticis a test of model specificationand is distributedas a chi-square(Hedges & Olkin, 1985). The AR2 is also reportedfor each of the variables under each order of entry. The final weighted least squaresregression equation for the mixed model is provided for each groupin Tables 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, and 18. The equationprovides a predicted value for empiricalType I errorrates as a linear function of eight predictorvariables (both linearand quadratictermsfor each of the four independentvariables). TABLE7 Maineffects-MLestimators MainEffect (Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df 2 2 .004 .011 812.46 630.39 525 519 SampleSize Enteredfirst Enteredlast MultivariateSkewness Enteredfirst 3.19* 8.98 142.60 2 .175 673.04 525 21.59 2 .026 630.39 519 Enteredfirst 84.34 2 .103 731.31 525 Enteredlast 26.95 2 .033 630.39 519 Degreesof Freedom Enteredfirst Enteredlast 76.42 21.96 2 2 .094 .027 739.23 630.39 525 519 Enteredlast Multivariate Kurtosis Note.All QEandQRstatisticsaresignificant (p < .05),exceptthosemarkedwithanasterisk. 118 Robustness for Structural Equation Models TABLE 8 Regressioncoefficients-ML estimators Variable SE B Beta T B Sig T MS2 -4.281E-06 2.714E-07 -.290143 -15.772 .0000 .003522 MS 1.309E-04 .505716 26.912 .0000 SAMP2 4.406E-09 3.198E-10 .216058 13.777 .0000 MRK .318705 .009722 .633186 32.780 .0000 SAMP -4.833E-05 2.724E-06 -.288341 -17.746 .0000 MRK2 -.065742 .002488 -.586805 -26.427 .0000 DF2 -2.184E-06 1.799E-06 -.024527 -1.213 .2251 DF .001723 1.594E-04 .223839 10.810 .0000 -0.166038 .007482 -22.193 .0000 (Intercept) Note.DF,degreesof freedom;DF2,degreesof freedom(squared); skewness;MS2, MS,multivariate multivariate skewness(squared); relativekurtosis;MRK,multivariate relative MRK,multivariate kurtosis(squared); SAMP,samplesize;SAMP2,samplesize(squared). AdditionallyFigures 1-6 (on pp. 124-129) provide a graphicalrepresentationof the relationshipbetweenempiricalType I errorratesandtwo independentvariables: multivariateskewness and multivariatekurtosis. Summary and Conclusions Maximumlikelihoodestimatorsshow very limited sensitivityto samplesize but are sensitive to the non-normalityfactors(Table7). The effect of model size is also importantfor ML estimators.Of the 528 effect sizes, 19 (3.6%) had standardized TABLE9 Maineffects-GLSestimators Main Effect (Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df Sample Size Enteredfirst 3.82* 2 .009 401.06 275 Enteredlast 0.55* 2 .001 206.75* 269 168.45 41.80 2 2 .416 .103 236.42* 206.75* 275 269 Enteredfirst Enteredlast 97.85 23.94 2 2 .242 .059 307.01" 206.75* 275 269 Degreesof Freedom Enteredfirst Enteredlast 24.97 7.09 2 2 .061 .017 379.90 206.75* 275 269 MultivariateSkewness Enteredfirst Enteredlast Multivariate Kurtosis Note.All QEandQRstatisticsaresignificant (p < .05)exceptthosemarkedwithanasterisk. 119 Powell and Schafer TABLE 10 Regressioncoefficients-GLS estimators Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T MRK2 -26.361 .0000 -.119095 .004518 -1.056390 MRK .0000 .592783 .024157 24.539 1.096171 2.556 .0106 SAMP2 1.59787E-09 6.2522E-10 .071934 -7.4859E-06 -.026053 -1.028 .3038 MS2 7.2795E-06 16.642 .0000 .520131 MS .009159 5.5038E-04 -1.8715E-05 -3.448 .0006 SAMP 5.4282E-06 -.100117 .0000 DF2 -4.1944E-05 -11.971 3.5039E-06 -.494397 .0000 DF 13.863 .004643 3.3494E-04 .591559 .0000 -.485651 .021144 -22.969 (Intercept) of multivariate Note.DF,degrees freedom;DF2,degreesof freedom(squared); skewness;MS2, MS, relativekurtosis;MRK,multivariate relative multivariate skewness(squared); MRK,multivariate kurtosis(squared); SAMP,samplesize;SAMP2,samplesize (squared). residualsin excess of 3.0 in absolutevalue. The largestof these was 6.26 and they came fromthreeof the 19 studiesthatcontributedML estimators.These resultsdid not cause the authorsto questionthe adequacyof the model. The outcome for GLS estimatorsis similarto thatfor ML estimators(Table 9). Sample size was not a majorfactor in accounting for variationamong empirical Type I errorrates. Non-normalityis even more profound a factor for GLS estimators,due principallyto the differentialimpact of MS between the two types of estimators.Residuals were examined for the 278 effect sizes involving GLS esti- TABLE11 Main effects--elliptical estimators MainEffect(Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df Sample Size Enteredfirst Enteredlast 18.63 9.99 2 2 .018 .010 1,004.22 801.32 479 473 MultivariateSkewness Enteredfirst Enteredlast 158.95 130.91 2 2 .155 .128 863.90 801.32 479 473 MultivariateKurtosis Enteredfirst Enteredlast 53.08 24.85 2 2 .052 .024 969.77 801.32 479 473 Degrees of Freedom Enteredfirst Enteredlast 14.37 3.63* 2 2 .014 .004 1,008.48 801.32 479 473 Note.All QRandQEstatisticsaresignificant (p < .05),exceptthosemarkedwithanasterisk. 120 Robustness for Structural Equation Models TABLE12 Regression coefficients-elliptical estimators B SEB Beta T SigT MRK2 MRK DF SAMP2 .128316 -.368699 -1.7784E-04 1.2445E-09 .001317 .003528 1.4071E-05 2.0611E-11 1.573839 -1.723644 -.094707 .274715 97.439 -104.521 -12.639 60.382 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 SAMP -1.2910E-05 Variable DF2 MS2 MS (Intercept) 1.8107E-07 -.352948 -71.297 .0000 3.5537E-06 1.2959E-04 -.003037 1.5103E-07 6.2165E-07 2.7252E-05 .175648 .767163 -.496353 23.531 208.453 -111.458 .0000 .0000 .0000 .316026 .002260 139.833 .0000 Note. DF, degrees of freedom;DF2, degrees of freedom (squared);MS, multivariateskewness; MS2, multivariateskewness (squared);MRK, multivariaterelative kurtosis;MRK, multivariaterelative kurtosis (squared);SAMP, sample size; SAMP2, sample size (squared). mators. Of the 278 standardizedresiduals, four (1.4%) were in excess of 3.0 in absolute value. The maximum was 3.78 and they came from two of the 12 studies that contributed GLS estimators. As in the case of the ML estimators, the examinationof residualsdid not cause the authorsto questionthe adequacyof the model. Like the normaltheoryestimators,ellipticalestimatorsshowedlimitedsensitivity to sample size (Table 11). Non-normalityplayeda role in the explanationof empirical Type I errorrates, but model size had only a small role in the explanation TABLE13 Maineffects--ADFestimators MainEffect(Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df Enteredfirst Enteredlast 123.11 133.32 2 2 .103 .111 1,071.55 439.14 278 272 Multivariate Skewness Enteredfirst SampleSize 295.16 2 .247 899.29 278 Enteredlast 70.38 2 .059 439.14 272 Multivariate Kurtosis Enteredfirst Enteredlast 3.49* 26.68 2 2 .003 .022 1,190.97 439.14 278 272 Degreesof Freedom Enteredfirst 375.22 2 .314 819.24 278 Enteredlast 222.85 2 .186 439.14 272 Note. All QEand QRstatisticsare significant(p < .05), except those markedwith an asterisk. 121 Powell and Schafer TABLE 14 Regression coefficients--ADF estimators B Variable SE B Beta T Sig T DF2 45.817 7.63630E-05 1.6667E-06 .0000 .904539 DF -18.575 .0000 -.002993 1.6111E-04 -.381575 SAMP2 66.982 .0000 1.78279E-08 2.6616E-10 .882354 -7.7035E-05 MS2 2.5072E-06 -.414335 -30.726 .0000 SAMP -1.7676E-04 2.2964E-06 -1.066363 -76.971 .0000 .010427 2.2120E-04 47.139 .0000 MS .766011 .045580 .002470 MRK2 18.453 .0000 .284721 MRK -.307213 .011254 -.476517 -27.298 .0000 .458724 46.883 .0000 .009784 (Intercept) Note.DF,degreesof freedom;DF2,degreesof freedom(squared); skewness;MS2, MS,multivariate multivariate skewness(squared); relative relativekurtosis;MRK,multivariate MRK,multivariate kurtosis(squared); SAMP,samplesize;SAMP2,samplesize(squared). of empiricalType I errorratesfor the elliptical estimators.The general weakness of model size as a predictorin the elliptical case is likely to be due to the limited numberof studies contributingcases for the elliptical estimators.Three-quarters of the cases came from one study, while 82% of the model sizes were either 5, 8, or 14. The effects of model size on empiricalType I errorrates for elliptical estimatorsdeserves more extensive study in future research.Standardizedresiduals were examined for the regression model for the elliptical estimators.Of the 482 effect sizes, 15 (3.1%)had standardizedresidualsin excess of 3.0 in absolutevalue. TABLE15 Main effects-distribution-free (other thanADF) estimators Main Effect (Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df Sample Size Enteredfirst Enteredlast 6.02 3.68* 2 2 .051 .031 111.31* 100.78* 169 163 MultivariateSkewness Enteredfirst Enteredlast 7.43 2.52* 2 2 .063 .021 109.89* 100.78* 169 163 0.80* 0.41" 2 2 .007 .003 116.52* 100.78* 169 163 5.49* 3.42* 2 2 .047 .029 111.84* 100.78* 169 163 MultivariateKurtosis Enteredfirst Enteredlast Degrees of Freedom Enteredfirst Enteredlast Note.All QEandQRstatisticsaresignificant (p < .05),exceptthosemarkedwithanasterisk. 122 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels TABLE 16 Regression coefficients-distribution-free (other than ADF) estimators Variable B SE B Beta T Sig T DF2 1.5833E-05 -3.9589E-05 -.622040 -2.500 .0125 DF .005504 .001556 .882447 3.537 .0004 SAMP2 2.2497E-08 3.0357E-09 7.411 .697805 .0000 MS2 1.0801E-05 5.5465E-05 .477077 5.135 .0000 MS -.003452 .001027 -.364043 -3.360 .0008 SAMP -1.5027E-04 1.7494E-05 -.925361 .0000 -8.589 MRK2 -.023470 .020328 -.107280 -1.155 .2484 MRK .016626 .070656 .8140 .022653 .235 .097383 .056462 .0847 1.725 (Intercept) Note.DF,degreesof freedom;DF2,degreesof freedom(squared); skewness;MS2, MS,multivariate multivariate skewness(squared); relativekurtosis;MRK,multivariate relative MRK,multivariate kurtosis(squared); SAMP,samplesize;SAMP2,samplesize (squared). These 15 were contributedby three of the five studies that includedellipticalestimators. The maximum of these residuals was 7.54. The results did not lead the authorsto question the adequacyof the regressionmodel. The ADF estimators had the strongest and most easily interpretedregression model in the entire meta-analysis (Table 13). The estimatorsappearsensitive to sample size, non-normality,and model size. The findings suggest that the ADF estimatoris affected when sample size is small or when model size is large. The user shouldapproachthe employmentof ADF skepticallyin these situationsunless TABLE17 Maineffects-latentprojectionestimators Main Effect (Linear,Quadratic) AQR df AR2 QE df Sample Size Enteredfirst Enteredlast 24.51 35.37 2 2 .051 .074 453.29 214.59 122 116 MultivariateSkewness Enteredfirst Enteredlast 80.76 5.74* 2 2 .169 .012 397.03 214.59 122 116 Multivariate Kurtosis Enteredfirst Enteredlast 6.28 3.32* 2 2 .013 .006 471.52 214.59 122 116 Degrees of Freedom Enteredfirst 213.30 2 .446 264.50 122 Enteredlast 123.75 2 .259 214.59 116 Note. All QEand QRstatisticsare significant(p < .05), except those markedwith an asterisk. 123 TABLE 18 Regression coefficients-latent projectionestimators Variable MRK2 MRK SAMP2 MS2 SAMP MS DF DF2 (Intercept) B SE B Beta T Sig T -.017735 .086306 -4.1151E-08 7.0843E-06 -5.9196E-05 3.8624E-05 .003974 2.2789E-06 -.025633 .001077 .006373 3.444E-09 1.163E-06 6.110E-06 1.608E-04 1.175E-04 1.063E-06 .006339 -.395921 .389099 -.169744 .137699 -.145559 .006578 .713739 .040445 -16.463 13.542 -11.949 6.088 -9.689 .240 33.835 2.145 -4.044 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .0000 .8102 .0000 .0320 .0001 Note: DF, degrees of freedom;DF2, degrees of freedom(squared);MS, multivariateskewness; MS2, multivariateskewness (squared);MRK, multivariaterelative kurtosis;MRK, multivariaterelative kurtosis(squared);SAMP, sample size; SAMP2, sample size (squared). O FIGURE 1. ML estimators-Type I error rate as a function of multivariate skewness and multivariaterelative kurtosis. 124 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels Cq) tob q) Qc5 FIGURE2. GLSEstimators-TypeI errorrateas a functionof multivariateskewness and multivariaterelative kurtosis. furtherresearchcontradictsthese results. As in the case of the other regression models, an examinationof standardizedresidualsdid not lead the authorsto question the adequacyof the regressionmodel. Of the 281 effect sizes, nine (3.2%) had standardizedresidualsin excess of 3.0 in absolutevalue. The maximumwas 4.10 and these nine came from five of the 16 studiesthatcontributedADF estimatorsto the meta-analysis. The remainingdistribution-freeestimators(Table 15) representa disparatecollection of procedures,some of which are in the experimentalstage. None of the estimatorsareheavily representedin this study,but as a groupthey show substantially less sensitivity to non-normalitythan any of the other groups of estimators. Taken as a group,they are substantiallymore robustthanADF. Of the 172 effect sizes, only one had a standardizedresidualin excess of 3.0 in absolutevalue. This standardizedresidualwas equal to 3.02 and these results did not lead the authors to questionthe adequacyof the regressionmodel. 125 Powell and Schafer g03 c, P>c5 9' 'O5 FIGURE3. Ellipticalestimators-TypeI errorrateas afunctionof multivariaterelativekurtosis. The latentprojectiontechniquesshow sensitivitywith respectto sample size and to model size (Table 17). The studycontainedonly 125 effect sizes involving latent projectiontechniques.While the findingsof this study do not suggest these techniques are sensitive to MS or MRK, the relatively sparse numberof effect sizes precludesany strongconclusions. These proceduresrequirefurtherstudy. Of the 125 effect sizes involving latent projectionmethods, seven (5.6%) had standardized residuals in excess of 3.0 in absolute value. The most extreme of the standardizedresiduals had a value of -5.85, and they came from three of the seven studiesthatcontributedlatentprojectionestimatorsto the meta-analysis.As in the case of the otherestimationmethods,the adequacyof the regression models was not called into questionby the resultsof this analysis. None of these estimation methods for SEM can be endorsed without considerable qualification. Both the ML and GLS methods depend on having data that 126 Robustness for Structural Equation Models Q) QL -t3 QL •oo FIGURE 4. ADF estimators-Type I error rate as a function of multivariateskewness and multivariaterelative kurtosis. do not deviate to any great degree from multivariate normality. This result is consistent with theirassumptions.Thereis no evidence from this study to suggest that the elliptical estimators offer substantial improvement. The elliptical estimators may be less sensitive to the effects of larger models, but this may be due to the relatively smaller range of model sizes represented in the metaanalysis. The resultsdo not discouragethe use of latentprojectiontechniquesas an alternative to normaltheorymethodswhen the data are eithercategoricalor censored. The ADF methodis not recommended.Othertechniquesthatare distribution-free may prove to be useful in futureresearch.However, any conclusions with respect to these methodsis prematureat the presenttime because they arenot heavily represented in the meta-analysis.Also, the estimation methods in this class include a variegated set of procedures.Furtherresearch should be undertakento make 127 Powell and Schafer 00 QLO a>co co q) e- FIGURE5. Distribution-freeestimators other thanADF TypeI error rate as afunction of multivariateskewness and multivariate relative kurtosis. 128 Robustnessfor StructuralEquationModels Q) ilt FIGURE6. 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Mean and covariancestructureanalysis: Theoretical andpracticalimprovements.UCLAStatisticalSeries, ReportNo. 180. Los Angeles: University of California,Departmentof Psychology. Authors DOUGLAS A. POWELLis a ConsultingStatisticianfor DataManagementServices of the NationalCancerInstitute,FrederickCancerResearchandDevelopmentCenter,Frederick, Maryland; [email protected]. His research specialties are meta-analysis, applied statistics, andresearchdesign. WILLIAMD. SCHAFERis Affiliated ProfessorEmeritusin the Departmentof Measurement Statistics and Evaluation, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland; [email protected] researchspecialtiesare appliedstatisticsand accountabilityin eduction. 132
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