Who gets political appointments? Party loyalty and bureaucratic expertise in Brazil Lorena Barberia (Universidade de São Paulo) Sérgio Praça (Universidade Federal do ABC) Introduction Since Weber’s [1948]seminal article on bureaucracy and politics, much has been written about the balance between party loyalists and bureaucratic competence in public administration. While partisan appointees tend to make government responsive to bureaucrats and sensitive to electoral pledges, they might lack the expertise to make the administration work. A “government of strangers” (Heclo 1977), in theory, hinders the president’s ability to fully implement her new policies. To err on the side of bureaucratic competence is also possible. Tenured civil servants are somewhat free to ignore party politics and boycott policies they are not comfortable with. Even if they agree with the new president’s agenda, they might lack the incent to navigate well between partisan interests and expert policy implementation. Most of the literature differs between “patronage” and “civil service merit systems” (Spiller and Urbiztondo 1994; Lapuente and Nistotskaya 2009) - or, to put it another way, “neutral” and “responsive” competence (Moe 1989; Aberbach and Rockman 1994). The former is structured considering primarily partisan and coalitional interests, while the latter, through mechanisms such as bureaucratic careers, is structured in order to keep policymaking away from the short time horizons of politicians (Spiller and Tommasi 2003). Contrary to this dichotomy, we show how an important mechanism associated with “patronage” systems - political appointment slots - is used strategically by the president and his party to select managers according to criteria not necessarily captured by civil service examination, such as political relationships and types of expertise. We use an original dataset of Brazilian federal government employees and their party affiliations to examine whether high-level political appointments are driven primarily by meritocracy or patronage. Our results, contrary to long-standing debate in political science, show that neither hypothesis is fully correct. Administrative experience is fundamental for appointment to the highest offices of the administration. At the same time, we also find that partisanship matters significantly. High-level appointees were more likely to be affiliated with President Dilma Rousseff’s Worker’s Party as opposed to coalition or opposition parties, or nonpartisan. This is especially interesting because there are an overwhelming number of authors whose analysis supports arguments for less politicization of the bureaucracy. Besides normative positions such as Weber’s, empirical analysis of the interaction between bureaucracy and politics show that appointees are less competent managers (Gilmour and Lewis 2006; Lewis 2007); that agencies with more political interference are less capable to implement policies (Geddes 1990, 1994), and this is anticipated strategically by the president (Geddes 1994; Parsneau 2013); that targets for agency spending are identified using political criteria when appointees are given enough discretion (Dahlstrom 2011; Gordon 2011) etc. Brazil is an interesting test case for the relationship between bureaucracy and politics. This is due to three factors. The first is that, unlike many countries, such as Mexico, Poland and United Kingdom (Matheson et al 2007, p. 19), party activity by bureaucrats is not prohibited. The second is that the Brazilian state has undergone drastic changes over the last thirty years, arguably becoming more policy-oriented and less clientilistic (Lyne 2005). Finally, our data refers to 2011, the year in which the leftist government of the Worker’s Party transitioned from Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to Dilma Rousseff. The latter’s emphasis on infrastructure projects instead of social policymakes for an interesting contrast to President Lula’s policy priorities and patterns of political appointments. 2 Within the comparative politics literature on bureaucracy, Brazil occupies a central place, having been studied by a host of influential scholars (Schneider 1991, Geddes 1994, Evans 1995) who argued that informal relationships between bureaucrats and politicians shaped many important policies since the seventies. According to these scholars, we should expect most political appointment offices to be filled by party activists, because there is strong demand from political parties belonging to the coalition for jobs in the bureaucracy. We should also expect most of lower-level political appointment offices to be filled by partisans and high-level appointment offices to be filled by bureaucrats, in an attempt to maximize expertise and competence. The fact that both of these two last statements are true shows that Barbara Geddes’ classic argument about “pockets of efficiency” is correct on both counts: presidents want competence and need to dole out patronage positions. However, these two goals may not be mutually exclusive: Brazilian presidents use political appointment offices as informal mechanisms for selecting competent managers. Cameron et al (2013) argue that “personnel policies can encourage intrinsically motivated public sector employees to invest in expertise, seek promotion, remain in the public sector, and develop policy projects”. As we show, bureaucrats in Brazil are selected to political appointment positions - for which they get a pay rise and the opportunity to formulate policy - according to certain characteristics related not only to politicization, but also to different types of expertise. Contrary to most of the literature on partisan political appointees, we argue that political appointments held by party members are neither inherently good nor inherently bad, but rather dependent on its effects with respect to the wider political context, such as the nature of party organizations and the electoral system. When political competition is high, politicians are more uncertain about reelection, and this gives them more incentives to supplement campaign finance through illegal means (Samuels 2006). The siphoning of funds from public agencies is a classic mechanism through which politicians do this. Party members which occupy political appointment offices will thus be pressured, by the party as organization, to take advantage of their positions for the greater good of the party. II.Literature Two types of political appointees are usually highlightedby the literature. The first type are “expert outsiders” – that is, people who are not in the public service and are called into political appointment positions in order to implement the new president’s policies. Heclo’s well-known assessment of political appointee recruitment in the United States (Heclo 1977, 1) - “the search for effective political leadership in a bureaucracy of responsible career officials has become extraordinarily difficult in Washington. In every new crop of political appointees, some will have had government experience and a few will have worked together, but when it comes to group commitment to political leadership in the executive branch they constitute a government of strangers” - explains the phenomenon. Although outsiders might have previous government experience, as well as academic or professional expertise that will come in handy for their political appointment slot, they tend not to keep their jobs for the whole mandate. One of the reasons this happens because of recruitment by the private sector, offering better wages (Cameron et al 2013). High appointee turnover is problematic because it might negatively affect organizational expertise (Carpenter 2001, p. 29), thereby increasingthe 3 costs of bureaucratic monitoring, because new employees are more difficult to monitor than bureaucrats that politicians have known for a longer while (Huber 1998) and, finally, because it might make high-turnover agencies less attractive to qualified civil servants (Lewis 2008, p. 58) The second type of political appointees highlighted by the literature are “partisan outsiders” – that is, people who occupy political appointment positions because they belong to a certain political party. This is the main focus of comparative politics scholars (Geddes 1994; Kopecky, Mair and Spirova 2012) and is commonly associated with patronage - either substituting a civil service merit system or coexisting alongside a civil service merit system. Brazil’s multiparty presidentialism, along with an open-list proportional electoral system, makes large and ideologically incoherent coalitions very much a part of the normal political scenario with increases in the demand for patronage positions in the bureaucracy.Since President Fernando Collor’s disastrous attempt at governing through decrees with a minority coalition in 1991, presidents Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Dilma Rousseff (PT) have governed mostly with majority coalitions. These are held together through a delicate combination of the appointment of partisan cabinet ministers (Amorim Neto 1994, 2002), federal spending of budget amendments proposed by parliamentary backbenchers(Pereira and Mueller 2004) and the doling out of political appointment slots(Schneider 1993, p. 345; Geddes 1994,Evans 1995, p. 61-65; Praça, Freitas and Hoepers 2011), comprising a diverse “executive toolbox” (Raile et al 2011) ripe for strategic action of political parties and the president. III.Data and Methods Brazil is, for reasons already noted, an interesting case in which to investigate how political appointments are distributed to political parties and/or to career civil servants. But it is also a good case because its federal government disclosesindividuallevel data for both political appointees and career civil servants and their respective party affiliations. Our dataset comprises about 327 thousand civil servants and political appointees who work in federal government agencies in Brazil.1As of December 2010, 21,681 (4%) of these employees were potential partisan appointees. They occupy the so-called “DAS” (an acronym of Direção e Assessoramento Superior, or High Level Execution and Advisory) offices, first implemented during the military dictatorship in 1970 and whose appointments were maintained in the 1988 Constitution.2 DAS appointees are responsible, along with the minister, for the most important decisions taken in each ministry. One can divide the DAS appointees in two groups: DAS-1 to 3 and DAS-4 to 6. There are 17,114 (79%) DAS-1 to 3 appointees, and 4,567 (21%) DAS-4 to 6 appointees. The first group is made up of low-level positions, with little policy formulation competence. They are paid from R$ 2,115 to 4,042 (US$ 1,200 - 2,200). Higher-level DAS appointees – that is, DAS-4 to 6 – are paid from R$ 6,843 to 11,179 (US$ 3,880 – 6,351) and control, influence and implement policies according to directives put forth by the minister and/or political parties. If the appointee is a career bureaucrat, he can opt 1 The Brazilian federal bureaucracy is comprised of 537,095 active employees, as well as about the same number of retirees. As we explain below, we excluded several agencies so the total sample for this study is smaller. 2 See D’Araújo (2009, p. 17-18) for more details. 4 to receive the full salary given to the position he gained by merit plus up to 60% of the DAS wage, a comfortable choice which some analysts consider excessively generous (De Bonis and Pacheco 2010, p. 359-360). Since July 2005, DAS appointees are formally nominated by the minister of the Planejamento (D’Araújo 2009, p. 20), benefiting from informal consultation with the minister of the Casa Civil.3 The Casa Civil is the most important bureau within the Brazilian presidency, also responsible for gathering legislative propositions from the other ministries and turning some of them into government bills and decrees (Queiroz 2009, p. 94-96). Our dependent variable is a dichotomous variable that equals 1 in the case that the individual in our dataset holds a high-level DAS (categories 5 and 6). Our reason for focusing on these two highest levels is that these are the highest paying and most prestigious posts. In addition, these categories are not regulated as are other DAS appointments. The Executive can appoint any public or privately employed citizen to these posts. In contrast,a 2005 decree mandates that 75% of all lower-level (DAS-1 to 3) and 50% of DAS-4 political appointment offices in the ministries should go to civil servants.4Among all civil servants, the probability of holding a DAS appointment is quiet low with higher level DAS appointments being most difficult to secure. Among all civil servants, 6.7% hold DAS appointments and high-DAS civil servants are a relatively small share of the total civil servant pool (1.4%). Of all civil servants who hold DAS appointments, 21.0% hold the highest level appointments (high-level DAS appointments) with the remainder holding low-level DAS appointments (79.0%). Overall, partisanship among Brazilian federal civil servants is quite low. Only 12.5% of all civil servants are affiliated with a party. However, a relatively higher share of high-level DAS civil servants is affiliated with a party (19.4%). High-level DAS appointees have also been party members for much longer (an average 1070 days) than average civil servants (642 days) and low-DAS civil servants (611 days). Among all civil servants, an average of 2.1% are affiliated with the Worker`s Party. Whereas only 3.0% of low-level DAS servants are affiliated with the Worker`s Party, 9.4% of high-level DAS appointees were registered as active PT members. The share of civil servants with an affiliation to a political party that is part of the PT governing coalition is 5.4% for the entire pool as compared to 5.7% for high-level DAS and 4.8% for low-level DAS appointees. The rates of party membership for those civil servants affiliated with a party that is an opposition to the governing coalition is much lower, 2.5% of all civil servants, 2.4% of high-level and 2.3% of low-level DAS appointees. In addition to partisanship, we recognize that appointments may be driven by the desires of Presidents to recruit highly capable individuals. One important skill that is needed in government is “administrative expertise”, which we understand as the skills that are necessary to effectively work within the public sector and navigate the bureaucracy. An example of this type of expertise is skills, such as the capacity to write public auctions,to coordinate procurement processes, to organize civil service examinations, and to act effectively as managers.Since 1988, the Brazilian federal government has hired around 1,200 “gestores de políticas públicas” who are civil servants specialized in public management, much like French bureaucrats who study in the Ecole Nationale d’Administration. They can work in any area of the federal 3 We thank Fernando Abrucio for bringing this to our attention. A similar idea was proposed in the mid-nineties by minister Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira, but lacked support from the coalition (Pacheco 2010, p. 194-195). The proposal probably only passed in July 2005 due to the unveiling of the “Mensalão” corruption scandal the month before. Santos (2009, p. 14) points out that a few ministerial units enacted even stricter rules for the appointment of DAS offices. 4 5 government and frequently fight for high-level appointments in area ministries. We consider those with this type of training to hold administrative expertise. However, bureaucratic skills are not the only skills that are needed by incoming presidential administrations. Presidential appointees are also awarded to individuals having “agency expertise”, which we understand as meaning background in main policies formulated and implemented by a certain agency.To explain the types of individuals whom we code as having agency expertise, we will give three examples. First, an anthropologist who works in the Fundação Nacional do Índio (Funai), the agency responsible for protecting the rights of indigenous people. His policy-specific expertise is given by academic training and on-the-job experience, both of which prepare him to deal specifically with the policy goals and strategies of that agency. Another example is a deputy in the Federal Police, the Brazilian equivalent of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Deputies (Delegados) are responsible for commanding investigations of corruption involving businessmen and, potentially, politicians. Thus they are responsible for “fulfilling” an important part of the agency’s mandate. Finally, lawyers working in the Ministério da Justiça, the Brazilian Justice Department, use their “policy-specific” expertise in order to make sure the ministry does what is required by law to do: protect basic human rights for all citizens; organize and make sure all bills proposed by the president will not have their constitutionality challenged (and, if this is impossible, they help argue in favor the bill’s constitutionality). The point we would like to stress is that this is much different from a lawyer working in the Ministério da Agricultura, an agency whose jurisdiction is not directly related to legal affairs. Therefore, we code agency expertise to try to capture these differences. We define as a “federal agency” an organization that is necessarily responsible for the implementation of a certain policy or set of policies, not only oversight, and that has a national jurisdiction. There are 327 bureaucratic agencies in the Brazilian federal government, 101of which we have analyzed in this article. We excluded agencies that are responsible for oversight only, and not the implementation of a certain policy (10 agencies); agencies that do not have national jurisdiction, such as universities and regional research centers, even though they are formally linked to ministries (110 agencies); agencies for which federal civil servants were transferred to, but which are not a part of the federal executive, such as the Senate and state-owned enterprises (103 agencies); agencies that do not exist anymore, but were included in the government’s original dataset (7 agencies). As we are keenly interested in seeking to examine whether partisanship matters and if it matters most for specific areas of the federal government, we code the 101 agencies into seven policy areas: i) Economic Development, Science and Technology; ii) Economic Policy; iii) Infrastructure Policy; iv) Legal Policy; v) Social Policy; vi) Presidential Office; vii) Other. Based on 48 interviews conducted with top bureaucrats in 2012 and 20135, table 1 presents the degree to which we expect political appointmentsto matter for specific types of policy areas. Table 1. Policy areas and political appointment patterns Economic Development, Science and Technology Little partisan interest 5 Economic Policy Infrastructure Legal Policy Presidency Social Policy Other Lots of partisan interest, but politicians delegate to * Lots of partisan interest * 2011: high on the agenda Little partisan interest Coalition partners delegate to president’s * Lots of partisan interest * 2011: high on the agenda Some partisan interest The interviews were conducted by Felix Garcia Lopez and Sérgio Praça. 6 bureaucrats party In order to examine what factors increase the probability of securing a high-level DAS appointment, we estimate the following model: HiDAS = β 0 + β1Duration + β 2 AgencyExpertise + β 3 Administrative Expertise + β 4 Prior Federal Employment + β5 Prior Non-Federal Employment + β6 CivilServiceExam + β7 PT + β8CoalitionParty + β9 EconDevpt + β10Social + β11Infrastructure + β12 Legal + β13EconPolicy + β14 Presidency+µ As the dependent variable is a binary variable which equals one if the individual holds a high-civil service appointment (DAS 5 and 6), we estimate the model using a logistic regression. In the model, we control for the number of days in which the individual has been in the civil service (Duration), whether she has agency experience (Agency), whether she has administrative expertise (Administrative), as well as a dummy variable if she held past federal government posts (Federal) or non-federal, and a dummy variable if employed in the non-federal civil service (Non-Federal). If the civil service employee passed an entrance exam (Concursado), we code a dumy variable as being equal to one. We include two dummy variables for party affiliation. The first, PT, is coded as one if the individual is affiliated with the Worker’s Party (PT). The second dummy is coded as one if the individual is affiliated with a party that was a member of the coalition (Coalition). To avoid over-identification, we omit category if the individual is affiliated with the PSDB was omitted from the model. In the model, we also include six dummy variables to distinguish in which area of the federal government the employee is based. Agencies, which were not coded as being belonging either to the economic, infrastructure, social policy, legal or Presidency, were coded as other and are the omitted dummy variable in the model. IV. Results As the descriptive data presented earlier indicate, a surprising relatively low share of federal civil service employees are affiliated to political parties. Yet, the likelihood of party affiliation increases given a higher political appointment (DAS). By controlling for agency and administrative experience, our regression model allows us to test if party affiliation matters and how much it matters once the other attributes of civil servants are taken into consideration. The regression results are presented in Appendix 1. In the results below, we report the regression results from the sub-sample of only DAS employees. In the paragraphs that follow, we focus on the implications of our findings by examining the predicted probabilities of obtaining a high DAS. We have four sets of important findings. First, our results show that different types of competence and expertise are important factors driving the choice of political appointees. High-Level political appointments in Brazil are more easily obtained by civil servants who have administrative expertise and this is particularly true for infrastructure agencies.Among all DAS appointees with no party affiliation, the probability of holding a high-level DAS is 15% (Table 2). Those with administrative expertise and no agency expertise 7 have a 32% chance of receiving a high-level DAS. On the other hand, agency expertise seems to be less relevant. If an individual holds agency expertise for the agency in which he is employed, this will only increase the probability of being appointed to a high-level post by 3%. Public sector employees who gained their post by passing a civil service exam are more likely to hold a DAS as compared to their counterparts (see Table 3). If an individual is Concursado, but lacks administrative expertise, the chance of a DAS appointment are 74%. With all other characteristics at the mean, those who passed a civil service exam and also have administrative experience have an 80% likelihood of receiving a DAS in the Dilma Administration. Table 2. Predicted Probability of High-Level DAS for those DAS depending on Party Affiliation, Agency and Administrative Expertise* Party Affiliation Probability without Probability with Probability Probability Status Agency and Administrative without with Expertise and no Administrative Administrative Administrative Expertise and Expertise and Expertise Agency Expertise with Agency Agency Expertise Expertise Non-affiliated 0.1517 0.3213 0.1885 0.3806 DAS Opposition party 0.1715 0.2118 0.4156 member 0.3538 Non-PT coalition 0.1977 0.2424 0.4584 member 0.3946 PT member 0.3632 0.6015 0.4255 0.6622 *All other variables are at mean. Second, our results clearly suggest that partisanship is an important factor in explaining how high-level political appointments are distributed in the Brazilian federal government. Moreover, among all party affiliations, those who are affiliated with the Worker`s Party are most likely to receive a high-level post. Given that this is the party of the President, these findings show that the Executive does give priority to its party members over other appointees who are members of parties in the coalition. If an individual is a PT party member and has no administrative or agency expertise, the probability of holding a high-level DAS is 36%. On the other hand, if the same individual is a member of a coalition party, the chances are 20%. These chances are quite low if one takes into account that the chances of a civil servant affiliated to an opposition party having a high appointment are 17%. Table 3. Predicted Probability of High-Level DAS for those DAS depending on Administrative and Agency Expertise and Civil Service Exam Status* Passed Civil Service Exam Non-Civil Service Exam Entrant without Agency Expertise 0.0034 0.2139 with Agency Expertise 0.0049 0.2811 without Administrative Expertise 0.0346 0.7395 with Administrative Expertise 0.0489 0.8031 *All other variables are at mean. Third, the degree to which partisanship matters depends on the sector of the federal government.Our initial hypothesis was that partisanship should matter most for those agencies which are responsible for implementing the president’s core policies. Our findings indicate that this is only partially true. 8 Table 4 presents the predicted probabilities of holding a high-level DAS post for those individuals who have administrative experience depending on the agency sector type and party affiliation status. We initially expected PT party affiliation to matter greatly for appointments in agencies engaged in economic and social policy-making, as well as those belonging to the Presidency. Contrary to our expectations, however, social policy agencies are not, compared to other federal government agencies, more likely to hire political appointees based on partisan criteria. The types of sectors that are most likely to appoint high-level DASs who are PT members are in the areas of infrastructure, legal policy and in the Executive Branch. There are relatively fewer highlevel DASs who are PT-affiliated in the areas on economic and social policy. Table 4. Predicted Probability of High-Level DAS for those DAS with Administrative Expertise depending on Party Affiliation and Agency Type* Infrastructure Economic Economic Legal Presidency Social Policy Other Party Policy Affiliation Development, Policy Science and Status Technology Nonaffiliated DAS Opposition party member Non-PT coalition member PT member 0.3391 0.2569 0.4310 0.4105 0.4065 0.2660 0.3668 0.3725 0.2857 0.4670 0.4462 0.4421 0.2954 0.4012 0.4140 0.3226 0.5106 0.4896 0.4855 0.3330 0.4438 0.6207 0.5244 0.7072 0.6895 0.6860 0.5361 0.6488 *All other variables are at mean. Partisanship seems to matter a great deal for those civil servants working in agencies that do infrastructure-related projects, a sector of government which has received a significant inflow of resources in the Dilma Administration. For those with administrative experience and no party affiliation, the chance of holding a DAS as compared to any DAS appointment is 43%. This is already a quite high probability and makes sense as one needs to have significant training to successfully implement public auctions, etc. in the sector of infrastructure and thus administrative skills should be highly rewarded. Yet, partisanship also matters. Whereas the chances of a high-level appointment slightly increase if one is a member of the coalition to 51%, the likelihood of a high-level DAS is 71% for a PT partisan with administrative experience. 9 Figure 1. High-Level DAS Appointment by Agency and Party Affiliation Type(for those with Agency Expertise only) Fourth, agency expertise does matter for some areas of government. High-level appointments in economic policy and economic development agencies are more easily obtained by civil servants who have agency expertise.6Similar to administrative expertise, the areas most likely to reward high-level appointments to the Worker`s Party are for those individuals working in agencies that are focused on infrastructure, legal and serving the Presidency. Yet, past experience in an agency is not as significant as administrative experience. Those who have prior background working in an agency belonging to the Executive Branch only have a 50% likelihood of holding a high-level DAS if affiliated to the PT. Given that the PT is now in its third consecutive term, this finding is surprising as one would have expected that a higher share of these prestigious posts would have been awarded to PT members of the Lula Administration. Instead, our results suggest that this was not as strong a determinant for distributing a DAS. V. Conclusions Our analysis raises a number of questions for scholars of Brazil and of federal bureaucracies and their evolution. Some tentative conclusions are in order. First, our analysis shows that political appointments cannot be equated exclusively with “patronage”, even in a political system in which actors have all the incentives to use the bureaucracy for partisan purposes. Second, political appointments are strategically used by the agencies to build up certain types of expertise - which we defined as “administrative” or “agency-specific” - that might be useful for them either to carry out the presidential agenda or for the long run. Third, we show that economic policy agencies are not more meritocratic than other bureaucracies, contrary to most of the literature on bureaucratic control in developing countries (Geddes 1994, Evans 1995). Thus far, our results, tell us more about the pattern of the highest level of presidential appointments relative to the small share of presidential appointees that comprise the totality of federal employees in Brazil. Clearly, however, our results are very preliminary and merit further research. 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Probability of High DAS Appointment Logit Regression Results (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) -0.756*** (0.0451) 0.748*** (0.0586) 0.181*** (0.0581) 0.929*** (0.0679) -5.39e-05*** (6.65e-06) -0.953*** (0.0572) 0.0679 (0.0927) 1.329*** (0.0568) 0.182*** (0.0583) 0.955*** (0.0683) -5.08e-05*** (6.67e-06) -0.916*** (0.0577) 0.0418 (0.0936) 1.336*** (0.0572) 1.079*** (0.0727) 0.187*** (0.0583) 0.959*** (0.0683) -5.15e-05*** (6.68e-06) -0.911*** (0.0577) 0.0449 (0.0936) 1.337*** (0.0572) 1.100*** (0.0729) 0.290*** (0.0775) 0.137 (0.115) 0.189*** (0.0583) 0.962*** (0.0683) -5.26e-05*** (6.69e-06) -0.911*** (0.0577) 0.0427 (0.0937) 1.335*** (0.0572) 0.857*** (0.103) 0.0485 (0.106) -0.0792 (0.132) 0.261*** (0.0595) 0.973*** (0.0707) -4.68e-05*** (6.79e-06) -0.886*** (0.0591) 0.00772 (0.0949) 1.317*** (0.0591) 1.160*** (0.0736) 0.320*** (0.0782) 0.146 (0.117) 0.348*** (0.0671) -0.0472 (0.0625) 0.737*** (0.0694) 0.469*** (0.0525) 0.637*** (0.0702) 0.653*** (0.0647) -1.474*** (0.0440) 21,687 -9861 -11139 15 0.115 Variables Agency Experience (Dummy) Administrative Experience (Dummy) # of Days of Civil Service Employment Career Civil Servant (Concursado) (Dummy) Civil Service Experience outside Federal Government (Dummy) Civil Service Experience inside Federal Government (Dummy) PT party member (Dummy) Coalition party member (Dummy) Opposition party member (Dummy) Government Agency Type Economic Development Economic Policy Infrastructure Other Presidency Legal # of days of Party membership Constant -1.223*** (0.0197) -1.012*** (0.0301) -1.106*** (0.0311) -1.129*** (0.0318) 4.55e-05*** (1.34e-05) -1.131*** (0.0317) Observations ll ll_0 df_m r2_p Standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 21,695 -10867 -11141 2 0.0246 21,687 -10107 -11139 6 0.0927 21,687 -10002 -11139 7 0.102 21,687 -9995 -11139 9 0.103 21,687 -9989 -11139 10 0.103 14
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