For immediate release Friday, December 9, 2016
Contact: Krista Jenkins 973.443.8390; [email protected]
4 pages
LOOKING BEYOND CHRISTIE: SIX CANDIDATES WITH LITTLE
FAMILIARITY TO VOTERS
Fairleigh Dickinson University, December 9, 2016 – Six major party candidates have declared their intention to run in
New Jersey’s 2017 gubernatorial election. Despite some having spent years in the public eye and already campaigning,
the most recent statewide survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind finds Garden State voters have little
familiarity with the current candidates, and little appetite or hope for either party’s leadership.
On the Democratic side, three men have announced their candidacies: Former U.S. Ambassador to Germany Phil
Murphy, Assemblyman John Wisniewski, and former U.S. Department of Treasury official and federal prosecutor Jim
Johnson. Despite Murphy’s early announcement that he intends to run and aggressively campaign, he is known to only
39 percent of registered voters. Almost a fifth (18%) have a favorable opinion with 9 percent who are unfavorable.
Wisniewski is known to about a third of the electorate (31%), despite serving as a state assemblyman since 1996 and cochairing the legislative committee investigating Bridgegate. Ten percent have formed a favorable opinion of him with
the same number who say they have an unfavorable opinion of the legislator. Johnson is familiar to only a quarter
(24%) of respondents.
“As attention turns from the presidential election to events back home, these candidates will experience greater scrutiny.
Murphy and Wisniewski have an edge over Johnson because of their public service experience. However, as reflected in
public opinion, the Democratic field remains wide open,” said Krista Jenkins, professor of political science and director
of PublicMind.
On the Republican side, two-term Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno has a lead over her opponents in name
recognition but despite occupying one of the state’s only two statewide elected positions, she is known to only forty
percent of voters, with equal numbers finding aspects of her that are both favorable (15%) and unfavorable (16%).
Her two rivals, Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli and Ocean County resident Joseph Rullo, are known to fewer than twenty
percent.
“Time will tell if Lieutenant Governor Guadagno will emerge from Governor Christie’s shadow. Her close connection to
the governor may hurt, given his historically low approval ratings. Their recent public disagreement over the gas tax
amendment on November’s ballot is an example of how she might raise her profile and distinguish her independence
from the governor. Right now, however, the majority of registered voters don’t know who she is, even though she’s
second in line to the governor,” said Jenkins.
Finally, in October we asked voters which party they think can do the most in solving the state’s myriad of problems.
Half (50%) believe neither party has the right answers, with about the same number divided between placing their faith
in the Democratic party (28%) as opposed to the Republican party (20%).
“Candidates from both of the state’s major political parties will have to work hard to define themselves to voters. But
these numbers suggest they’ll also have to distinguish their leadership as something that offers simply more than
partisan solutions,” said Jenkins.
Methodology, questions, and tables on the web at: http://publicmind.fdu.edu
Radio actualities at 201.692.2846
For more information, please call 201.692.7032
1
Methodology - The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone November 30December 4, 2016 among a random sample of 836 registered voters in New Jersey. Results have a margin of sampling
error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.
Survey results are also subject to non-sampling error. This kind of error, which cannot be measured, arises from a number
of factors including, but not limited to, non-response (eligible individuals refusing to be interviewed), question wording,
the order in which questions are asked, and variations among interviewers.
PublicMind interviews are conducted by Opinion America of Cedar Knolls, NJ, with professionally trained interviewers
using a CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) system. Random selection is achieved by computerized
random-digit dialing. This technique gives every person with a landline phone number (including those with unlisted
numbers) an equal chance of being selected.
The total combined sample is mathematically weighted to match known demographics of age, sex, race, and education.
444 interviews were conducted on landlines and 392 were conducted on cellular telephones.
The sample was purchased from Marketing Systems Group and the research was funded by Fairleigh Dickinson
University.
PublicMind recently received an “A” rating from statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog. The ratings measure
both accuracy and bias for all major polling services in the United States, providing an update to similar research the
poll watchers conducted in 2014. PublicMind’s “A” rating puts it in the top 14 of the more than 380 polling institutes
reviewed and graded from A+ through F PublicMind was found to have a 94 percent accuracy rate for predicting
election results, and is one of only two A-rated polling institutes with zero bias to their rankings.
Tables
I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of each
person, or if you’ve never heard of them? [Rotate names]
Haven’t heard of
Favorable
Unfavorable
Unsure
61%
18%
9%
12%
Phil
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Murphy
59
69
68
21
14
8
8
7
13
12
11
11
69%
10%
9%
12%
John
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Wisniewski
66
78
68
14
6
6
8
3
13
11
13
13
6%
9%
9%
76%
Jim
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Johnson
78
74
75
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
60%
15%
16%
9%
Kim
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Guadagno
61
66
56
10
13
23
21
13
12
7
9
10
83%
5%
5%
8%
Jack
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Ciattarelli
84
84
82
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
84%
4%
5%
8%
Joseph
Dem Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Dem
Ind
Repub
Rullo
84
85
84
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
2
Which of the two major political parties do you trust the most to fix what’s wrong with New Jersey, or do you trust neither?
October 2016
PID
Gender
Race
Education
Age
NonHS/Some
All
Dem Ind Repub Male Female White
College+ 18-34 35-59
white
college
Republicans
1
9
49
22
18
26
9
24
18
18
18
20%
Democrats
59
3
4
24
31
24
36
26
29
25
26
28%
Neither
38
86
46
52
48
48
53
49
49
55
53
50%
DK (vol)
2
2
2
1
3
2
2
1
3
2
2
2%
Refused
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(vol)
Question wording and order
US1 and US2 withheld
NJ1 through NJ4 released December 6, 2017
ELEC1 through ELEC7 withheld
ID1
I’m going to read you some names. Can you tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable [rotate] opinion of
each person, or if you’re never heard of them? [Rotate names]
withheld
ID2
ID3
ID4
ID5
ID6
ID7
Phil Murphy
Kim Guadagno
Jack Ciattarelli
John Wisniewski
Jim Johnson
Joseph Rullo
1
2
3
8
9
Favorable
Unfavorable
Never heard of
DK (vol)
Refused (vol)
ID
[Gwa-dah-no]
[Sit-are-elli]
[Wiss-NEW-ski]
Murphy: Trend
12/16
10/16
5/16
11/15
4/15
Haven’t heard
61%
58%
74%
89%
88%
Favorable
18%
16%
8%
3%
4%
Unfavorable
9%
9%
7%
3%
2%
Unsure
12%
16%
12%
5%
6%
Guadagno: Trend
12/16
10/16
11/15
6/14
8/13
8/12
Haven’t heard
60%
52%
69%
68%
75%
76%
Favorable
15%
17%
11%
11%
9%
9%
Unfavorable
16%
18%
10%
10%
4%
5%
Unsure
9%
13%
10%
10%
12%
10%
3
60+
24
32
41
2
0
Haven’t heard
83%
76%
Favorable
5%
5%
Unfavorable
5%
6%
Unsure
8%
13%
Wisniewski: Trend Haven’t heard
12/16
69%
1/12
80%
Favorable
10%
6%
Unfavorable
9%
3%
Unsure
12%
11%
Cittarelli: Trend
12/16
10/16
Sample characteristics (weighted)
Male
Gender
Female
18-34
Age
35-59
60+
Refused
White
Race
African American
Hispanic
Asian
Other/Refused
Dem
Party (with leaners)
Ind/DK/Refused
Repub
4
49%
51%
25%
42%
32%
1%
65%
13%
13%
5%
4%
47%
20%
33%