QUARTERLY GENERAL FUND
REVENUE REPORT
January 2015
Barry Boardman, Ph.D.
Fiscal Research Division
North Carolina General Assembly
0
Highlights
• General Fund collections through December are $199.2 million
(2%) below the six month revenue target of $9.8 billion.
• Collections on wage and salary income continue to lag behind
forecast expectations. Sales and Corporate Income tax
collections have offset some of the weakness in Personal Income
tax collections.
• The steady, moderate economic growth that re-emerged last
summer is expected to continue throughout the fiscal year. In
2015, most economic forecasts anticipate a continuation of this
growth path with the economy operating at near average growth.
• Employment growth has steadily improved over the last six
months. Widespread wage growth has yet to develop. The
ongoing improvements in the employment picture should begin
to place upward pressure on wages.
1
FY 2014-15 Revenue Through December
• General Fund revenue was $199.2 million below the $9.8 billion
target for the first half of the fiscal year.
• Second quarter revenues (Oct.-Dec.) were $137 million below
target.
– Weak income continued to be the main reason collections were
running behind target.
– Personal Income: $247 million below target for the year; the result
of wage and salary withholding running 2.7 percent below target and
Final Payments down $77 million.
– Sales Tax: $78 million over target; baseline growth (adjusted for tax
changes) was up 6.2%.
– Corporate Income: $57 million over target. Collections are $48
million less than last year, the result of the rate reduction from 6.9 to
6.0 percent (the rate goes to 5.0 percent in 2015).
– Franchise: $54 million below target. This may be attributable to the
timing of these payments now that electricity, which was partially
included in the Franchise tax, is fully taxed under the Sales tax.
2
FY 2014-15 Revenue Through December
FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE (millions)
Net Tax Revenue
Individual Income
Sales and Use
Corporate Income
Franchise
Other
Total Tax Revenue
Target
2014-15
Actual
2014-15
Target
Difference
Actual
2013-14
$5,141.8 $4,895.2 ($246.6) $5,520.0
3,087.0 3,164.8
77.8 2,773.1
479.6
536.8
57.2
584.7
144.3
90.1
(54.2)
270.2
540.0
530.9
(9.1)
551.3
Y/Y Pct.
Change
(11.3)
14.1
(8.2)
(66.7)
(3.7)
$9,392.7
$9,217.7
($175.0)
$9,699.3
(5.0)
Nontax Revenue & Transfers
$442.6
$418.4
($24.2)
$411.4
1.7
Total General Fund Revenue
$9,835.3
$9,636.1
($199.2) $10,110.7
(4.7)
3
FY 2014-15 Revenue Through December
• The three main General Fund revenue sources, Personal and
Corporate income tax and the Sales tax, have had mixed results
the first half of the fiscal year.
– Sales tax collections maintained the solid growth established earlier in
the summer. Net collections (after refunds and transfers) were 14.1
percent above last year (baseline collections are up 6.2 percent, see page
5).
– Net Personal Income withholding (collections less refunds) continue to
underperform (see page 6). Growth is 3.4 percent below the revenue
target and total income tax collections were 4.8 percent below target.
Final payments on the 2013 tax year are below target, the remnants of
the Federal fiscal cliff, which pulled income out of 2013.
– Corporate Income taxes are performing better than expected with net
collections $57 million (11.9 percent) over target.
4
Tracking Economy-Based Collections
The year-over-year growth in the monthly baseline collections are averaged
over four quarters. The dashed line at five percent is a proxy for when Sales
taxes reflect better economic conditions. The first quarter of the fiscal year
growth was a solid 6.0 percent. The second quarter saw further improvement
with 6.4 percent growth, and pushed the 4-quarter average above five
percent.
5
Tracking Economy-Based Collections
Sales tax growth has been bolstered by a return of consumer confidence in
the economy. An improving jobs market, better housing market conditions,
and economic stability have switched consumers back from the savers they
became during the recession, to buyers again. Although consumers are
buying more, it remains below the exuberant pace prior to the recession.
6
Tracking Economy-Based Collections
Net Withholding income growth (withholdings less refunds) dropped off
dramatically from last year as a result of tax law changes in S.L. 2013-316.
Even without the change net withholding would have weakened as wage and
salary growth has dropped below three percent.
7
Economic Outlook
• The economy has settled into a steady growth pattern. Most
economists expect growth to remain near average, or slightly
below, throughout 2015. The pace of the recovery has not
created a robust job market; however, employment conditions
have improved noticeably since this time last year.
– A survey of 50 economists by the Wall Street Journal expects national
economic growth will remain steady this year. Growth is projected
between 2.8 and 2.9 percent. The survey also suggested most
economists think inflation will be in check and the national
unemployment rate will drop to 5.3 percent by year’s end.
• Given that the national economy in 2015 is positioned for
stable, sustained growth, the risks of small economic shocks
curtailing the pace of growth have been greatly reduced.
8
Economic Outlook
• The greatest economic risks come from a global economic
downturn, as well as other international risks such as the ongoing
volatility in the Middle East. Despite these risks, the chances for
an economic downturn in the next six months are below 30
percent.
• Thus far, economic conditions including retail sales, economic
output (GDP), and employment have aligned with expectations.
Unfortunately wages have yet to respond.
• Prior to the recession in 2008, wages were growing above four
percent. Data for this December indicate that wages grew by only
1.7 percent compared to a year ago.
• The labor market has seen marked improvement this past year,
yet has still not fully recovered from the recession that ended five
and a half years ago. If the pace of employment growth stays on
track this year, it will greatly improve the prospects for stronger
wage growth by 2016.
9
Economic Outlook
Because the unemployment rate can at times be misleading with respect to
economic conditions, we tend to focus on the level of employment and the rate
of employment growth. The chart shows how total employment has recovered
since the end of the recession. In October and November, employment
surpassed the previous peak in February, 2008.
10
Economic Outlook
• Economic conditions have mostly aligned with the revenue
forecast produced last April, yet wages have lagged behind
expectations.
– Wages are expected to rise as the unemployment rate draws closer to a
the full-employment level of five percent, but in the near-term, weak
wage growth the first half of the fiscal year has made it more difficult
for revenue collections to meet the FY 2014-15 consensus forecast.
Changes in Economic Growth Forecast, April 2014 to December 2015
Economic Indicator
NC Gross State Product
NC Total Non-Farm Employment
NC Unemployment Rate
NC Income: Total Personal
NC Income: Wages & Salaries
NC Retail Sales: Total
NC Population
Actual
FY2013-14
2.7%
1.7%
7.0%
2.9%
3.4%
3.7%
1.0%
April 2014
Forecast
FY2014-15
3.4%
1.8%
6.6%
4.8%
4.5%
5.9%
1.2%
December 2014
Forecast
FY2014-15
3.2%
2.4%
6.2%
3.8%
2.6%
6.1%
1.3%
Source: Fiscal Research Division, based on national and state forecasts provided by Moody's Analytics
11
Economic Outlook
• The updated State indicators are consistent with the current revenue
picture, especially the downgrade in personal income growth. Early
projections for the upcoming biennium expect these growth trends
to stabilize and wage income to rebound.
• Additionally, Dr. Mike Walden at NCSU publishes a monthly index
of North Carolina’s Leading Economic Indicators. The index
forecasts the economy’s direction four to six months from now. His
December report states “the Index has been essentially constant,
suggesting the pace of economic growth experienced in the state
since mid-year will continue into early 2015.”
• The revised outlook, especially for two key drivers that influence
State revenue, employment and income, suggests that the new
biennium should see stable employment growth with wage growth
still facing headwinds until the labor market moves closer to fullemployment status.
12
Revenue Outlook
• When and how shifts in economic conditions will impact
revenues are difficult to anticipate. This difficulty has been
compounded by the significant tax laws changes enacted in the
2013 session (S.L. 2013-316). These changes began to impact
collections in 2014.
• Despite extensive efforts to provide accurate estimates, North
Carolina will not understand for several years the full fiscal
implications of these myriad changes to the tax code, which
exceeded $1.5 billion per year.
• This increased uncertainty warrants greater caution when
assessing the revenue picture for the next biennium.
13
Revenue Outlook
• Some of the most significant and difficult tax changes to
measure were those made to the personal income tax. Not only
were rates reduced from a three tier system to a flat rate, but
many deductions, exemptions, and credits were altered or
eliminated.
• Some of the year-to-date shortfall in personal income tax
collections may be due to these changes and should be offset
by lower refunds and higher final payments in April.
• These expectations on refunds and final payments put
added pressure on April collections, an already important,
and often volatile, collection month.
• Because of this, April will be especially important in terms of
how the State finishes this fiscal year and how we assess
revenue forecasts for the next biennium.
14
Revenue Outlook
• If this April meets our expectations, we do not expect the
current shortfall to grow significantly, but the slower than
expected wage growth will still contribute to collections not
meeting the budget target.
• Turning to the next biennium, we do expect the State’s
economic growth to remain on a path of solid, modest growth
similar to the overall national economy. Baseline revenues
(adjusted for tax changes) should continue to follow this trend
as they have the last several years.
• Currently lower gas prices are being assessed with respect to
how long they will persist, and what, if any, impact on the
overall economy can be expected. Most economist currently
are not forecasting big changes to the national economy.
15
Conclusion
• Revenue collections through December are two percent below
the consensus target, income collections have fallen behind
because of weak wage growth and reduced final payments on
the 2013 tax year (the fiscal cliff).
• But for wages the economy is picking up steam and pressure on
wage growth should begin to build. Wages may remain stagnant
until the economy nears full-employment and the
unemployment rate drops to five percent.
• Revenue projections have been complicated by over $1.5 billion
in annual tax changes. Most of these changes began to take
effect in 2014.
• Expectation for the upcoming biennium indicate that steady
economic growth throughout the period will produce baseline
revenue projections that approach an average rate of growth.
Actual growth will be muted somewhat with income tax rate
reductions for both personal and corporate taxpayers in 2015.
16