Where do climate change adaptation
decisions come from?
Socio-cognitive factors, decision-making and adaptive
capacity in Fijian villages
Clare Shelton
University of East Anglia
PhD Conference on International Development 2013
Photo: Flickr, TckTckTck
Presentation Outline
• Research objective
• Concepts and questions
• Fijian context
2
Overall Context
Growing number of adaptation projects and efforts in
Pacific region at multiple scales
– National climate policies (e.g. Fiji, Vanuatu, Tuvalu,
Federated States of Micronesia)
– Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change (PACC)
• Regional programme supporting national/community level pilot
projects in 14 countries
– Community-based projects supported by government,
NGO and universities
• UNDP pilot adaption projects in Samoa, PACE-SD and University of
the South Pacific projects in Fiji
• WWF Climate Witness
– GIZ, AusAID
3
Research Objective
Examine the role subjective elements play in
motivating or constraining climate change
adaptation in Fijian communities.
4
Adaptation and adaptive capacity
Stressors
Physical and social; external
and internal
Adaptation Decisions
Decision-making
mechanisms and
processes
+/- Resilience
Physical and social
Climate Change
Including changes to mean
conditions as well as extreme
events and variability
Limits and
barriers
Adaptive Capacity
Adaptation Space
Ecological, Cultural and Socio-Political Context
Conceptualisation of where planned adaptation decisions take place in relation to
contextual factors, climate change impacts and resilience
drawing from Adger et al. 2005; Tompkins and Adger 2005; Adger et al. 2009; Brown and Westaway 2011
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Adaptation responses
• Responses shaped by:
– Identity
– Risk perceptions
– Time-orientation
– Community values
– Understandings of what climate change is and
adaptation means
– Decision-making processes and resources
– Etc…
6
Understanding intentions:
Theory of Planned Behaviour
• Explains behaviour in relation to attitudes,
beliefs, and perceptions (Ajzen 1985; 1991)
• Behaviour guided by three kinds of beliefs:
– Behavioural
– Normative
– Control
• Leads to intention to engage in (or not) a specific
behaviour
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Theory of Planned Behaviour
Behavioural
Beliefs
Attitude
toward a
behaviour
Normative
Beliefs
Subjective
norm
Control
Beliefs
Perceived
behavioural
control
Intention
Behaviour
Ajzen 1991;2002
8
Conceptual framework
Temporal and spatial scales vary as this process is complex and iterative
Power Relations
and Structures
Decision-Making
Factors
(individual and
collective)
Beliefs
Culture
Efficacy
Behavioural
Gender
Perceptions
Normative
Past experiences
Worldviews and
values
Social Context
Ecological Context
Identity
Required
adaptation
resources
(perceived)
Control
Socio-Cognitive
Factors
(Types of)
Adaptation
Action
Attitudes
Subjective
Norms
Perceived
Behavioural
Control
Intention
- or No
Adaptation
Action
Adaptive Capacity
Change Drivers
(internal and external)
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Research Questions
How do socio-cognitive factors and their antecedent beliefs and
perceptions influence adaptation decisions and adaptive capacity across
scales?
a)
What is the context for these attitudes, subjective norms, identity and
perceptions of efficacy and risk (i.e. socio-cognitive factors)?
b)
How do these socio-cognitive factors impact individual adaptation
decisions?
c)
What role do these factors have in village and household-level decisions?
d)
What role do these factors and underlying beliefs and perceptions have
in adaptive capacity?
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(18DAO.net and operationworld.org)
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Fijian context
• Half Fiji’s population in rural areas, highly dependent
on natural resources
• 85 % land owned communally by indigenous Fijians
• Traditional structures provide decision-making
frameworks at village level
– Family; mataqali; yavusa
– Vanua; Lotu; Matanitu
• Va’avanua, sautu and talanoa
Ravuvu 1987; Toren 1990; Arno 1993; Dumaru 2010; McNamara and Limalevu 2011
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Drivers of change in Fiji
Demographic change



Population growth
Population distribution (changes due to
urbanisation, outer islands moving to Viti Levu);
increasing population in coastal areas and river
valleys)
Demographic characteristics (older population as
young move abroad for work)
Socio-economic/cultural change




Environmental change




Increased pressure on coastal resources (marine
species from extraction)
Increased demand for water
Increased clearing of highland and mangrove
forest
Decreasing coastal water quality near urban
areas
Ferisi et al. 2000; OECD 2002
Increasing reliance on cash economy, eroding
traditional networks
Urbanisation and increased reliance and
preference for imported food
Health problems linked to diet/lifestyle changes
Increasing disparity in income, health service
access and living standards
Climate change








Increased air and water temperatures
Increased inter-annual variability
Increased frequency and severity of extreme
events (including cumulative impacts)
Sea level rise
Precipitation changes
Groundwater salinization
Ocean acidification
High uncertainty in forecasts
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Bula vinaka
Questions?
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References
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