“NATO – Russia Relations Correlated with the Euro-Atlantic
Perspective of Western Balkan Countries”
By
Sinan Geci1
PhD Student
National University of Public Service
january- february2017
1
[email protected]
Having in mind the complex geopolitical situation in the Western Balkans, the Euro-Atlantic
institutions must step in sooner rather than later in order to provide a clear strategic message
and provide membership and integration prospect to those countries in the region. It would make
it clear also to other actors which are interfering in every occasion and opportunity that can be
found in the region. NATO must help and fast track the integration of the remaining Western
Balkan countries into its umbrella before the region slips away in dismay. Interfering right in the
NATO’s and EU’s back yard, Russia is expanding its sphere of influence creating ambiguity
amongst the countries that are already confused about their place in the midst of the global
crisis. A swift integration of the region into NATO means that the new members could continue
their democratic reforms and economic developments while inside the realm of the Euro-Atlantic
institutions as the future is clearer rather than adding more requirements to the pre-membership
list which in turn would provide opportunities for other stakeholders to impact the process.
Introduction
The Euro-Atlantic perspective for certain Western Balkan countries has never been more
ambiguous since the end of the Cold War. The integration into security organizations, notably
into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), of the region is a necessity not only for
these countries and the promotion of good neighborly relations amongst each other but also for
the alliance. The risks and threats that have emerged in the past few years will be a challenge for
the Western Europe and the common values they share in the years to come. It is evident that the
NATO Alliance has recognized the contemporary threats. Indeed, heads of States and
Governments of member states of NATO convened and covered numerous areas during the
NATO Summit in Warsaw on 8-9 July 2016. The summit addressed the challenges both internal
and external that face the Balkan region; it is no doubt that the whole of the Balkan countries are
not ready politically and technically to join the Alliance, but the fact remains that NATO must do
more for these countries because recently it is creating a gap due to the loss of interest in the
region.
Nonetheless, at the last Summit, NATO member states reiterated the community’s core and
common values that the Alliance shares among its members for the safety, freedom and security
of its Allies. The conclusions state that the Alliance will continue to accomplish its three core
tasks as defined in the Strategic Concept of 2010:
collective defence,
crisis management,
cooperative security.2
If expanded, these values could be enriched by the reginal countries.
NATO – Russia Relations
When established, the original aim of the NATO Alliance as stated by its first Secretary
General Lord Ismay, “NATO was formed to ‘keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the
Germans down.”3 The NATO Strategic Concept of 2010 foresaw no direct and immediate threats
against NATO but highlighted the strategic importance of cooperation with Russia. In 2010,
Admiral Giampaolo di Paola, Chairman of the Military Committee during the Association’s 50th
1
Warsaw Summit Communiqué Press Release (2016) 100 Issued on 09 Jul. 2016.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm#piracy (accessed: 15.11.2016).
3
“60 years of NATO: 1949 – 1989” Deutsche Welle http://www.dw.com/en/60-years-of-nato-1949-1989/a-4144009
(accessed: 01.11.2016).
Annual Symposium in Mons rephrased the first Secretary General Lord Ismay’s words stating
that the goal of NATO is “to keep North America in, Europe up, and Russia with.”4
Although previously was noted that there were low probabilities of threats on NATO and that
the Alliance stressed the importance of a cooperative approach – particularly including and
aiming Russia- nowadays, NATO sees no point in continuing the same level of cooperation with
Russia. The current situation, one may argue, is at the lowest level of cooperation between
NATO and Russia for more than two decades. The outmost reason for the deterioration of this
relationship between NATO and Russia is the aggression and the illegal annexation of Crimea by
Russia. Thus, NATO today, no longer sees Moscow as a partner, and since 2014, NATO has
suspended civilian and military cooperation with Russia. It only continues with the political
contacts at the ambassadors’ level so that not all doors are closed in exchanging opinions. NATO
continues to express its concern towards Russia’s continued destabilizing pattern of military
activities and aggressive rhetoric, which is not only towards but beyond Ukraine.5
In May of 2016, NATO Secretary General, Jan Stoltenberg said during a television interview
in Poland that the best option for NATO is to avoid the escalation of bad relations with Moscow
and attempt its best to establish an open dialogue. The Secretary General Stoltenberg pointed out
that at the NATO-Russia Council in April 2016 it was restated the existence of deep
disagreements between the Alliance and Russia.6 Based on the current developments one of the
original aims is back on the table, in particular the idea of keeping the Russians out. Out of
Europe, west and east, so it is out of being able to influence.
4
Admiral Giampaolo di Paola. After-Dinner Speech 16 Oct. 2010.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_69910.htm?selectedLocale=en. (accessed: 10.11.2016).
5
Relations with Russia 27 Oct. 2016 NATO. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_50090.htm (accessed:
08.10.2016).
6
The 2016 NATO Summit: What will be on the agenda in Warsaw? Dr. Ian Anthony. Jun 26, 2016
http://moderndiplomacy.eu/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=1529:the-2016-nato-summit-what-will-beon-the-agenda-in-warsaw&Itemid=156 (accessed: 02.10.2016).
The conflict in Ukraine has forced NATO to return its focus on collective defense. Since
NATO does not have all the necessary capabilities to deal with the security threats of the 21st
century, then it must consolidate and build partnerships as one of its best strategies. In this note,
it could be argued that NATO must extend cooperation and partnership to the countries in the
Western Balkans. Particularly, NATO must encourage the drive of internal reforms and
democratic development as well as to mitigate the extension of Russian influence in the region.
Indeed, NATO ought to accelerate the integration of the aspiring countries into the Alliance so
that it leaves no vacuum for other countries, such as Russia, which are ready to fill such gaps.
An Overview of Euro – Atlantic Integration of the southern Balkan countries
The political and the security environment in the Western Balkans is an issue that will be of
concern for Europe as a whole but also for NATO. The Balkan countries have been impacted by
the consequences of the end of the Cold War with the dissolution of Yugoslavia. Although war
broke out and the former Republics gained independence from Yugoslavia, there still is an
unfinished business in the region.
Indeed, the regional security context has changed slightly towards a more positive
environment in the last one and a half decade. Normalization of relations among countries is
continuing in the spirit of non-confrontation and European integration. There is hope that the
nature of confrontation between countries will be gradually replaced with a new spirit of
cooperation and economic competition within the framework and the Euro-Atlantic values and
prosperity. The continuing presence of EU, NATO, and other organizations in the region
continue to provide a sustainable peace and regional stability.
Nonetheless, there is a clear indication and prospective for instability. Slovenia and Croatia,
as former Republics of former Yugoslavia have joined both NATO and EU, and from that
standpoint they are much advanced economically and diplomatically in comparison with the rest
of the Western Balkan countries to the south. Albania as a non-Yugoslavian but in the Western
Balkans is also a NATO member. There are internal factors that delay the process of EuroAtlantic integration but the external ones are more troubling both for the countries themselves
but also for the Alliance. The external challenge comes mainly form the Russian influence on the
Balkans and also because NATO is not working enough with these countries to prepare them and
have them ready to join the Euro-Atlantic security structures. Russia is using the absence of
perspective and focus of NATO towards the region in order to extend its power in the region, in
some more than in others. This article briefly refers to certain Western Balkan countries which
are and may be further impacted directly and indirectly from Moscow. In this regard,
Montenegro has attained NATO Invitee Status, but the rest of the region in the south is falling
behind in the Euro-Atlantic integration path, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia,
Kosovo and Serbia.
The Western Balkans are surrounded by countries from Central and Eastern Europe that are
already members of NATO or/and the European Union. However, there is a deficiency in the
integration process for certain countries each one for different reasons. Some are not ready while
for some the “relationship [partnership and NATO membership] is absent because of the
historically significant suspicion and mistrust developed against NATO and the United States.”7
It is evident, as some public polls and publicly stated political opinions show that in some
countries and population there is an anti-NATO and a significant level of mistrust against USA
7
Pavel BUČKA, Klára Siposné Kecskeméthy “NATO Partnerships Challenges, Values And Interests” National and
International Security Conference 2015
http://www.aos.sk/struktura/katedry/kbo/NMB2015/Zbornik_NMB_2015.pdf (accessed: 02.10.2016).
due to NATO bombings - the USA had a leading role - in the late 1990s, particularly from Serbia
and the Serbian nationalists outside Serbia. However, arguing from a strategic point of view, not
all the Western Balkan countries must suffer and pay the non-integration price because one
country or one nation is more pro Russia and anti-NATO integration and membership. As an
illustration, over 95 percent of the population in Kosovo is pro NATO and pro USA. One may
argue that Kosovars are one of the most pro-NATO and USA nations in the world. Nonetheless,
this country has no contractual and enhanced relationship with the NATO Alliance.8 In
Montenegro, on the other hand, according to the Government of Montenegro data, the opinion
poll towards NATO accession support is nearly half of that in Kosovo. The survey that took
place in January 2016 “notes that 47.3% of the citizens of Montenegro support the country’s
membership in NATO, 37.1% oppose and 15,6 of them are undecided.”
9
Yet, it is the 29th
NATO member state, which is welcomed by most countries in the region as it proves NATO is
open to aspiring countries from the region. Bosnia and Herzegovina has internal issues due to its
ethnic divisions and therefore a lack of political consensus; Macedonia has gone backwards – in
particular since the last couple of years that instead of negotiating its constitutional name with
Greece it has made regress domestically and therefore towards NATO membership as was made
very clear after the last NATO Summit; Kosovo, despite the public support and political
consensus, has no contractual relationship with NATO mainly due to four NATO member states
that are non- recognizers (Spain, Rumania, Slovakia, Greece); Serbia, on the other hand has
strengthened its relations with Russia and due to the recent past history with NATO its national
8
Thaqi, Hashim. Ministry of Foreign Affairs. “Kosovo – a factor of stability in the Western Balkans” Prishtinë, 24
mars 2015 http://www.mfa-ks.net/?page=2,217,2624 (accessed: 07.11.2016).
9
Government of Montenegro. “Latest opinion poll: 47.3% of citizens support Montenegro’s NATO accession”
01.02. 2016
http://www.gov.me/en/News/157178/Latest-opinion-poll-47-3-of-citizens-support-Montenegro-s-NATOaccession.html (accessed: 20.10.2016).
policy is not to pursue NATO membership, although it has joined NATO Partnership for Peace.
The following table illustrates the NATO and EU progress to have a visual understanding of
these countries in terms their progress. EU process is included only to exemplify the lack of
progress in the above mentioned supranational bodies.
Table 1: Five WB countries in their NATO and EU process
NATO 10
EU11
PfP
Aspiring
Country
Member
State
SAA
Potential
Candidate/
Candidate
Potential
candidate
Member
State
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
2006
Yes
No
2015
Kosovo
No
No
No
2016
Potential
Candidate
No
Montenegro
2006
Yes
2010
Candidate
No
Yes
Yes /
Invitee
Status
No
Macedonia
1995
2004
Candidate
No
Serbia
2006
No
No
2013
Candidate
No
No
Russia and the southern Western Balkans
Looking at the current developments, there is still an incomplete business in the Western
Balkans. NATO has been present in the region since the mid-1990s and during this time it has
played an enormous stabilizing role, but it has not set the path nor has it prepared sufficiently the
10
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. 2017 http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ (accessed: 20.01.2017).
European Neighbourhood Policy And Enlargement Negotiations. December 6, 2016
https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/ (accessed: 02.01..2017).
11
countries to join the Alliance. One may argue that the countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina
and Kosovo still have international military presence but they are the least prepared to join the
Euro-Atlantic family. The member states at the NATO Summit reiterated and acknowledged the
progress made in the Balkan region and that it is of strategic importance that NATO continues its
cooperation and operations in the region. NATO supports the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of the
Western Balkans and encourages the continuing reforms domestically as well as good regional
and neighborly relations and cooperation towards the integration efforts. NATO reaffirmed their
commitment to the Open Door Policy, a founding principle of the Washington Treaty, thus far a
successful principle of the alliance.12
Since 2009, the closest country to join the alliance from the region has been Macedonia.
However, the fact is that it has been Montenegro that was invited in 2015 and signed the protocol
of accession in May 2016. Moscow was not quite in this regard. Russian influence has been
obvious and the Government of Montenegro has openly accused both Russia and in this matter
as well as Serbia for inspiring and having a hand on antigovernment protests during 2015
demonstrations in Podgorica at a time when Montenegro was expecting the invitation during
the NATO's foreign ministers meeting in Brussels on December 1-2, 2016. Indeed,
Montenegro’s Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic stated "there is no need for an interpretation,
Russia has sent three very clear and very direct messages through its Ministry of Foreign
Affairs."13
Montenegrin chief prosecutor, Milivoje Katnić, publicly claimed that Russian nationalists
were organizing and planning to break into national parliament and assassinate the pro-NATO
Warsaw Summit Communiqué” NATO 8-9 July 2016 Warsaw
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_133169.htm#piracy (accessed: 17.10.2016).
12
13
“Pro-Russian Parties Seek To Derail Montenegro's NATO Bid” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty November 28,
2015. http://www.rferl.org/a/montenegro-opposition-protests-nato-bid/27395329.html (accessed: 25.10.2016).
prime minister, Milo Đukanović.14 Although it has strongly opposed Montenegro’s accession to
NATO, Russia dismissed allegations that it was engaged in Montenegro coup plot in October last
year. Montenegro had suspected at least 25 people - mostly Serbs - and three Serbian nationalists
were jailed as they admitted being part of organizing the coup. Furthermore, two pro-Russian
lawmakers were also suspected as organizers of the coup and will face charges accordingly.15
NATO, indeed, acknowledges the Russian influence in the Western Balkans. In Montenegro
Russia supports the opposition. In Macedonia, on the other hand, Russia’s position has been
evident through the support for the governing party, notably the Prime Minister Nikola
Gruevski.16 In order to extend its propaganda, Russian foreign ministry argues that both EU and
NATO have caused the crisis and are contributing to it due to the interference in Macedonia’s
affairs. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, "[t]he West is using the Albanian minority
in an attempt to bring to power in Skopje the defeated opposition, which approved the Albanian
ultimatums leading to the erosion of the country's constitutional principles. The ongoing
destructive attempts to impose schemes from the outside, contrary to the will of the Macedonian
voters, can only aggravate the situation. It is necessary to stop foreign interference in the internal
affairs of Macedonia....”17 The EU and NATO, on the other hand, encourage the reforms and
support the Euro-Atlantic path of Macedonia.
14
“Montenegrin prosecutor says Russian nationalists behind alleged coup plot” The Guardian. November 6, 2016.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/06/montenegro-prosecutor-milivoje-katnic-russian-nationalistsbehind-alleged-coup-plot (accessed: 25.01.2017).
15
“Kremlin rejects claims Russia had role in Montenegro coup plot” The Guardian. February 20, 2017.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/20/russian-state-bodies-attempted-a-coup-in-montenegro-saysprosecutor (accessed: 25.02.2017).
16
“Backsliding in the Western Balkans” NATO Review Magazine. 2017
http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2017/Also-in-2017/backsliding-western-balkans-kosovo-serviabosnia/EN/index.htm (accessed: 20.01.2017).
17
“Stay Away: Moscow Urges West to Stop Interfering Macedonia’s Political Crisis.” Sputnik News. March 02,
2017. https://sputniknews.com/politics/201703021051197258-moscow-macedonia-west-political-crisis/ (accessed:
02.03.2017).
As an aspiring NATO country, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Euro-Atlantic Integration has been
undermined by the Serbian leaders supported by Moscow and Serbia. The actual president of
Republica Srpska, Milorad Dodik, is the closest ally of Moscow. While the west encourages
Bosnia to join NATO, Russia is against. Dodik accuses NATO for its position against Serbs who
oppose Bosnia and Herzegovina’s membership to NATO, thus interfering in Bosnia’s internal
affairs.18 To make matters worse, Dodik had organized Republica Srpska Day –prior held a
referendum amongst Serbs for this day- with military parade defying the Constitutional Court
and High Representative Office in Bosnia and Herzegovina that declared the referendum illegal.
Regarding the referendum in Republika Srpska Putin stated that “[a]s far as the referendum
concerned there was no special discussion, except to conclude that it is the people’s right”19
Moscow has been involved in the country through Dodik who received support after meeting
Putin. The fact is that a divided Bosnia and Herzegovina benefits Moscow and that also damages
the perspective of the country into NATO as the ethnic conflict escalates.
The greatest influence Russia has in the southern part of the Western Balkans is in Serbia and
through Serbia. Russia has traditionally supported Serbia, particularly since the 1990s when it
has acted internationally in support of Serbia. Russia has used its veto in the United Nations
Security Council in support of and in protection of Serbia; it has also made strategic investments
in Serbia. In the years 2003 till 2012, there were more than 2.85 billion dollars invested in
Serbia. Gasprom Neft bought over 50 percent stake of Serbia’s oil and gas company Nafta
18
“Dodik accuses NATO of interfering in Bosnia's internal matters” Europe Balkan News. January 08, 2017.
https://eblnews.com/news/balkan/dodik-accuses-nato-interfering-bosnias-internal-matters-51198 (accessed:
02.03.2017).
19
Knezevic, Gordana “Russia’s Fingers in Bosnia’s Pie” Radio Liberty September 28, 2016.
http://www.rferl.org/a/russia-putin-republika-srpska-bosnia-dodik-referendum-statehood-day/28018362.html
(accessed: 17.02.2017).
Industrija Srbije in 2008.20 The support has also been in other areas, such as the defense sector.
In order for Russia to be more present in the region, by supporting Serbia, it has established
concrete projects, namely it has “established a humanitarian center in southern Serbia to facilitate
Serbia’s purchase of Russian military equipment…[and] is offering Serbia the opportunity to
bolster its economic and military development, without the conditions typically imposed by
western economic institutions.”21 Russia is also using Serbia to strengthen its international role
and be a factor in the region as well as fighting international isolation by being at the doorstep of
the Western Europe. Serbia’s national position not to join NATO has paved a favoured ground
for Russia’s presence there.
Due to the lack of Euro-Atlantic perspective and the internationally challenged in terms of its
subjectivity, Kosovo could be destabilized by Russia. The population in Kosovo is the most pro
NATO and USA in the whole of region and even beyond. Nonetheless, Moscow attempts to
extend its impact through Serbia with whom they are like-minded and the regime is the most proRussian in the Western Balkans. The Republic of Kosovo is part of Moscow’s narrative and
dominates its foreign policy predominantly since the Crimea case and the comparative point
Putin is trying to make between the two cases. As a permanent member of the United Nations
Security Council, Russia could indulge key achievements that Kosovo is trying to mark with
Serbia facilitated by the European Union.
The majority of Serbs in Kosovo (and in the region) see Russia as a kin state protecting the
Serbs’ interests. Although the negotiations to join EU have been opened to Serbia, which makes
20
Pivovarenko, Alexander. “Modern Russia in the Modern Balkans: Soft Power through Investment” Russian
International Affairs Council May 23, 2014. http://russiancouncil.ru/en/inner/?id_4=3744 (accessed: 02.01.2017).
21
Ramani, Samuel. “Why Serbia is Strengthening its Alliance with Russia” The Huffington Post. February 15, 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/samuel-ramani/why-russia-is-tightening-_b_9218306.html
(accessed: 02.03.2017).
the balance between Russia and EU much harder for Serbian foreign policy, Russia sill will
continue to support Serbia over Kosovo. Despite a slight progress in talks between Kosovo and
Serbia, recently, the incident between the two countries culminated when Serbia initiated a
project with a Russian-made train to travel from Belgrade to Mitrovica, Kosovo. The Northern
Mitrovica is populated mostly by Serbs. The train form Belgrade was perceived as a direct
provocation from the Government of Kosovo and took appropriate actions to halt the train before
entering the territory of the Republic of Kosovo. On the outside the train was covered with
slogans “Kosovo is Serbia” in twenty different languages, while the inside of the train was
“decorated with large images of Serbian Orthodox religious icons from famous monasteries in
Kosovo, while hostesses were dressed in Serbia's national colours.”22 Fortunately, it never
reached the North Mitrovica as Kosovo was ready to stop it, by force if necessary.
As in the territory of Serbia, Russia is using the Serbs and is trying to extend its interference
in Kosovo via investments. The Republic of Kosovo has aligned its foreign policy with NATO
and EU and its partners by imposing sanctions against Russia since the illegal annexation of
Crimea. In December of 2016, Marko Djuric, the head of Office for Kosovo in Belgrade,
participated in the opening of three gas stations in North Mitrovica, Kosovo, which infuriated the
Kosovo officials. The gas stations were of Nis Petrol, a Serbian company but its main
shareholder with over 50 percent is Gazprom Neft of Russia. The latter is on the black list of
Kosovo government’s embargo on trade with Russia. Kosovo government has asked EU for help
to close these gas stations to reduce Russia’s hand inside Kosovo; as Kosovo Minister for
Dialogue, Edita Tahiri, put it, "We must have maximum vigilance to stop any Russian influence
in Kosovo because it can be dangerous to the national security of our Euro-Atlantic state and
22
“Serbian train sparks escalation in tensions with Kosovo”. BBC News Services.
January 14, 2017. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38625872 (accessed: 02.02.2017).
with geostrategic risks for Kosovo and the region. This issue should be addressed by our state
institutions in the context of Russia's dangerous ambitions."23
As we are entering a “new” Cold War, Kosovo will continue to strive for international
recognition and joining international organizations notwithstanding the obstacles caused by
Serbia and Russia through Serbs. The Republic of Kosovo has a clear strategic aim, and that is
the path towards Euro-Atlantic integration.
Conclusions
The recent past in the Western Balkans should suffice for the Euro-Atlantic institutions to
return the focus to the region. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization must return its attention to
the region as tensions rise because it cannot afford to waste its time, money, energy and its
political and military image after all that investment it has made in the last two decades. The
recent developments inside the Euro-Atlantic countries may alter the involvement of certain
member states that as a consequence of the multifaceted geopolitical environment may have
negative consequences not only for the region but beyond. The opening of discussions and
programs, as well as facilitating these countries in their road to joining NATO, as a security
organization, may also leave no security vacuum and mitigate the role of Russia in its
expansionist sphere of influence in the region. Russia is a source of destabilization in the region;
while keeping Europe and NATO occupied with Ukraine it is swiftly expanding its impact to
many countries and creating domestic problems by supporting fractions that are pro-Russian and
23
Morina, Die and Prebreza, Visar. “Kosovo Accuses Djuric of Busting Russia Trade Sanctions.” Balkan Insight.
December 21, 2016.http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/nis-petrol-violates-kosovo-s-embargo-to-russia-12-212016 (accessed: 02.02.2017).
anti-western. Should the opportunity to bring these countries closer to NATO is missed, then it
will be almost unbearable, expensive and a lengthy process for NATO to re-introduce the EuroAtlantic perspective once again in this region. Hence, the open door policy and the enlargement
policy must be tangible and concrete for all the aspiring countries in the Balkans; otherwise the
Russian influence will keep mounting which is good for no one.