Flood Hazard Estimation Methods
for Dam Safety – phase 1
Date 2011-12-06
Fredrik Persson
Dam Safety
Center for Energy Advancement through
Technological Innovation - CEATI
CEATI International Inc. brings electrical utility
industry professionals together, through focused
interest groups and collaborative projects, to identify
and address technical issues that are critical to their
organizations. Participants can undertake projects
that respond to their strategic goals at a fraction of
the cost of doing so independently. The need for
international breadth and inter-industry applicability in
technology development is addressed through a
practical, dynamic and cost effective program.
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Dam Safety
Dam Safety Interest Group - DSIG
The Dam Safety Interest Group (DSIG) is composed of
dam owners who jointly sponsor research & development
projects designed to help assess and improve the safety of
dams.
Today, the DSIG is represented internationally by
participants from Canada, the United States, Australia,
Sweden, France, the United Kingdom, and Germany.
Number of companies/organizations – 43
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Dam Safety
Content
• Background
• Scope
• Organization
• Time-schedule
• Deadlines
•?
Dam Safety
Background
A plethora of approaches now exist, each with its perceived
advantages and disadvantages, and hence a wide diversity of
practice exists.
An unbiased and structured review of the available and evolving
methods, how and why they are used in across the world and,
importantly, how they perform are addressed by the dam owners.
Dam Safety
Scope of the study
Phase 2
Phase 1
The scope of the work to be performed includes:
1. Analysis of the regulatory framework on flood hazard
around the world (WP1)
2. Analysis of existing flood hazard estimation approaches
(WP2)
3. Application of the different approaches to common case
studies (WP3)
Dam Safety
Scope of the study (phase 1)
Task 1 –
Analysis of the regulatory framework on flood
hazard around the world: The aim of this task is to
provide an overview of the regulatory frameworks
concerning flood hazard estimation for dam safety.
Emphasis should be placed on Europe, North
America, Asia and Australia. If possible, this should
provide a global perspective.
Task 1
This task will provide an overview of the regulatory framework
concerning flood hazard estimation for dam safety, including a
review of :
i.
Context
ii.
Standard or risk-informed
iii. Effectiveness in delivering dam safety
iv. The approach to determining the flood hazard
v. Emerging trends in regulation
vi. Approach to considering climate change
vii. Rationale for public safety and risk reduction expenditure
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Dam Safety
Scope of the study (phase 1)
Task 2 -
Analysis of existing flood hazard estimation
approaches: The aim of this task is to provide an
overview of various approaches both in practical
applications and in scientific literature for flood
hazard estimation for dam safety. All known methods
should be listed, described and compared while
highlighting positive and negative attributes as well
as shortcomings.
The methods to be considered are (but not limited
to): Classical Flood Frequency Analysis, Multifractal
Flood Frequency Analysis, Regional Flood
Frequency Analysis, PMP/PMF (Probable Maximum
Precipitation/ Probable Maximum Flood), and
Rainfall Runoff simulation methods.
Task 2
A range of methods will be listed. Each will be summarized and
compared using a range of criteria that will differentiate the
techniques, including:
i.
Mathematical basis
ii.
Climate assumption
iii. Data demands / needs
iv. Applicability
v. Capable of supporting standard based approaches, riskinformed or both
vi. Degree of modeller skill
vii. Computational resources required
viii. Use of historical data and the degree of confidence in the
approach
ix. Representation of uncertainty
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Dam Safety
Organization
CEATI
Chris Hayes
Gus Tjoumas
Kristin Matheson
Project Sponsor Representatives
Zoran Micovic, BC Hydro
Tammy Hartung, Brookfield
Pietro Bernardara, EDF
Fredrik Persson, Elforsk
Mathurin Daynou, Hydro Quebec
Andy Zielinski, OPG
David Bowling, TVA
Only sponsor: Transalta, Manitoba Hydro & Saskpower (Canada)
Dam Safety
Organization
Consultants Representatives
Project leader: Paul Sayers, Sayers and Partners
Dr David Bowles, RAC Engineers & Economists, USA
Dr Harvey Rodda, Hydro-GIS Ltd, UK
Dr Chris Gippel, Fluvial Systems Pty Ltd, Australia
Dr Rory Nathan, Australia
Dr Huang, Institute of Water and Hydraulic Research, China
Dr Ed Tomlinson, Applied Weather Associates, USA
Dr Max Little, Systems Analysis, Modelling and Prediction Group, UK
Time schedule
Dam Safety
Deadlines
13/9-2012
Report phase 1 (Task 1 & 2)
Fall meeting
Decision on phase 2 (Task 3)
Dam Safety
???