www.grailresearch.com The East African Community (EAC) It’s Time for Business to Take Notice January 2012 Page | 1 About Grail Research Grail Research is the strategic research division of Integreon, a global leader and trusted provider of research, legal, and business support services Since Grail’s establishment in 2006, we have conducted research in 145+ countries and 25+ languages, and we have a global delivery network of over 2,000 employees worldwide www.grailresearch.com • In Africa alone, we have conducted more than 100 projects, across several industries Globally, our client list spans many industries, including: Consumer Goods, Life Sciences, Technology, Media, Tourism, Mining, Manufacturing, Investment Banking, Insurance, PE/VC Funds, and Consulting We provide organizations with accurate, succinct answers to their most important business questions. Common challenges we help clients address include route-to-market strategy, assessment of market potential, launching and enhancing products, competitive intelligence, assessing new trends and making acquisitions or strategic investments Our Experience in Africa Page | 2 www.grailresearch.com Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................. 4 Introduction .......................................... 5 The East African Community (EAC) What is It? ............................................................6 What is Different this Time? .................................7 What Makes this Market Interesting? ...................9 What Benefits Have Been Achieved so Far? ........11 What are the Obstacles? .....................................13 What Benefits are Expected in the Future? ..........14 Conclusion ............................................ 15 Page | 3 Executive Summary The East African Community (EAC), initially consisting of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania (later including Rwanda and Burundi), was established in 2000. The aim of the community is to increase intra-regional trade and to raise the prominence of the East African region internationally. When viewed as a single market the EAC compares favorably with other opportunities within Africa: the population is forecasted to reach 150 million by 2015, GDP growth is expected to average at 9%, it represents a relatively diversified non-oil based economy within Africa and one of the easier business environments in which to operate. Furthermore, both North and South Sudan and the DRC have expressed interest in membership, making the EAC likely to expand further. www.grailresearch.com This is the second incarnation of the EAC, the first unraveled in 1977, and a number of factors make it more durable than its predecessor. There is less disparity in terms of economic size, the political systems are aligned and the compositions of the members’ economies are more conducive to trade. On top of this, landlocked members such as Rwanda are placing regional integration at the center of their economic strategy and taking an active role in driving progress forward. The development of the EAC is planned in four different phases: Customs Union, Common Market, Monetary Union and Political Federation. The Customs Union phase has been completed, in which the following were introduced: common external tariff, duty free trade between members, and common customs procedures. The EAC is now in the Common Market phase which will introduce free movement of labor and right of establishment and residence. Changes to date have coincided with a significant increase in levels of FDI and intra-regional trade, which indicates that the EAC is achieving the goals for which it was formed. The community still needs to overcome some significant challenges, especially in terms of prioritizing community initiatives above those of the individual countries and creating the institutional capacity to drive reforms. Despite these challenges, the political backing for the EAC is very strong and we expect progress to continue and bringing with it an increasing number of benefits to organizations established within the EAC. These include: free movement of staff and resources, access to an expanding market, increased competition between suppliers and large scale investments in regional infrastructure. Over the next five years we expect the impact and role of the EAC to increase significantly and that it will be one of the more important regional factors to consider when planning an East African strategy. Page | 4 Introduction With close to one billion people and a GDP of approximately $1.7 Trillion, Africa presents a sizeable investment opportunity. At the country-level, however, the story is less enticing. If one considers that 3 countries (South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt) account for over half of Africa’s economic activity, it is quite clear that the remaining 51 countries suffer from a lack of scale. Furthermore, with intra-regional trade at a meager 10%, compared to almost 40% in North America and 60% in Western Europe, the investments that have been attracted are quickly www.grailresearch.com drawn out of the region as a payment for imports. To address these challenges, African countries have united together to establish Regional Economic Communities (RECs). These RECs aim to boost regional integration and economic development and, thereby, improve the profile and competiveness of its member nations. The most prominent RECs in Africa include: Southern African Development Community (SADC), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), and East African Community (EAC). Over the last 5 years, it is the EAC which has made the most progress and instituted the broadest range of reforms. The recent applications of both South and North Sudan to join the community indicate that from a geopolitical perspective the EAC has been a success. The business impact, however, is not as clear: Are the benefits of the EAC cascading through to the business environment and is the EAC an important factor to consider when planning your entry strategy for East Africa? Page | 5 EAC – What is It? www.grailresearch.com The EAC is a regional intergovernmental organization that aims to strengthen the economic, social, and political integration among its five member states: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi (Figure1). Broadly, the organization aspires to create a large economic area to attract both foreign and domestic investors, increase economies of scale, enhance efficiency due to greater competitiveness, and reduce poverty in the region. Since its re-inception a decade ago, the EAC has made significant progress in terms of social and economic development, political cooperation, and regional integration, leading to an overall positive business outlook. The region’s next phase of the development aims to diversify products/services, develop infrastructure network, and establish a robust institutional framework. The EAC is an International Governmental Organization (IGO) established in 2000 and consists of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi For the global business community, the EAC serves as a single market with numerous growth opportunities, including: The EAC aspires to create a large economic area to attract both foreign and domestic investors, increase economies of scale, enhance efficiency and reduce poverty in the region A population of ~137 Million people – Expected to exceed 150 Million by 2015 (Figure 2) Expected to expand geographically – Anticipated addition of South Sudan Diversified non-oil based economy Forecasted ~9% GDP growth (2010–16F) Increased intra-regional trade – Grew by 40% (2005–09) Key FDI recipient –$14.8 Billion (2009) Strategically located – Gateway to Eastern and Central Africa Strong ties with other RECs (i.e. COMESA, SADC) Politically stable region Page | 6 “The Partner States undertake to establish among themselves and in accordance with the provisions of this Treaty, a Customs Union, a Common Market, subsequently a Monetary Union and ultimately a Political Federation in order to strengthen and regulate the industrial, commercial, infrastructural, cultural, social, political and other relations of the Partner States to the end that there shall be accelerated, harmonious and balanced development and sustained expansion of economic activities, the benefit of which shall be equitably shared” – Article 5(2), Treaty for the Establishment of EAC EAC – What is Different this Time? www.grailresearch.com The cooperation between Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania that existed since the 1900s and multiple regional integration arrangements such as Customs Union between Kenya and Uganda in 1917 (Tanzania joined in 1927), formed the basis of the first establishment of the EAC in 1967. However, due to ideological and economic differences, the trading union dissolved in 1977. It was in 1984, when the member states signed a mediation agreement for the division of assets and liabilities, that the seed of future cooperation was sewn. Eventually, it resulted in the signing of the agreement to establish the Tripartite Commission for East African Co-operation in 1993 (Figure 3). This finally led to the re-establishment of the EAC in 2000. This re-establishment of EAC after its initial collapse in 1977 raises an important question: “Why should the EAC succeed this time?” To answer this, it is critical to understand the reasons and factors behind the EAC’s collapse in 1977, and emphasize the key social, economic, and political shifts that form the basis of its reincarnation. which was brought on by significant FDI investments and an improved business environment. As a result, this created a more equitable environment amongst the members of the EAC (Figure 4). The example of Tanzania and Uganda lent confidence to smaller countries such as Rwanda and Burundi to join the EAC without the fear of being swallowed up by larger neighbors. The EAC was first established in 1967 but dissolved in 1977 due to ideological differences between capitalist Kenya, socialist Tanzania and Uganda which was under the dictatorship of Idi Amin Increased alignment of the member’s political systems and the more equal division of the East African economy suggests that the current EAC has a far more stable foundation than its previous union A) Economically Comparable Members In 1967, Kenya, being the biggest and mostprosperous nation in the EAC, was set to reap a disproportionate share of the benefits from the regional integration. Tanzania and Uganda had relatively small economies and feared that their manufacturing and agricultural sectors would be outcompeted by their Kenyan equivalents. Since then, Tanzania and Uganda have witnessed significant GDP growth Page | 7 “Uganda and Tanzania are catching up to Kenya in an economic sense, as there is more South African investment in Uganda and Tanzania” – Expert Interview B) Improved Political Scenario With the transition of Tanzania and Uganda to a democratic political system, the member states are closer than ever in terms of ideology and values. This common base significantly increases their ability to come together on important policy decisions. In addition, it reduces the number of tradeoffs needed to reach an agreement and, therefore, improves the likelihood of policies being adhered to. For example, this common philosophy made it easier for the EAC members to agree on the terms of expansion of the EAC to include Rwanda and Burundi. C) Favorable Economic Structures www.grailresearch.com During 1967–77, the member states’ economies were predominantly agriculturalbased which made the potential benefits from regional integration unclear. There was little scope to add value in terms of products or operational efficiency from mutual trade and cooperation between member states. The new EAC, however, has been formed at a time when the economic structure is more favorable due to the emergence of a growing middle class, increasing demand for sophisticated products, freer markets, and transitioning to a more diverse industry-based economy. As a result, greater benefits can now be realized from successful regional integration. These positive developments as well as a strong commitment from EAC members indicate a step towards ensuring deeper regional integration and sustainable growth for East African geographies (Figure 5). The increasing level of industrialization and the decreasing reliance on agriculture results in more benefits to be gained from regional cooperation “Today, with the relative growth of sectors outside of agriculture, coupled with the demands of the middle class for more sophisticated products and services, the opportunity for efficiency gains are much greater than at any time in the past….Furthermore, middle class demands are creating new opportunities for each country to develop its regional niche. To give just one example where this is already happening, Kenya is emerging as a regional centre of excellence in education, and boasts the largest number of independent ‘prep schools’ of any Commonwealth nation outside Britain!” – Professor, INSEAD and Centre for Global Development, May 2010 Regional Cooperation through Events and Joint Exercises A recent development within the EAC is the increasing tendency to hold joint events under the community banner. These events, such as ‘Invest in East African Community 2011’ and ‘Opportunities East Africa’ held in London in Sept 2011, the ‘Mashariki Holiday Festival’ to be held in Arusha in Dec 2011, and the ‘Ushirikiano Imara’ (an EAC military command post exercise held in Rwanda in Oct 2011), are testament to the increasing level of cooperation between the member states as well as a drive to create increased global awareness about the East African Community and the opportunities it presents. Page | 8 EAC – What Makes this Market Interesting? www.grailresearch.com The ability of African geographies to weather global financial crisis, along with their untapped potential, has put Africa on the global business scene as the next growth opportunity. A number of businesses who until recently were avoiding Africa, are now in the process of developing Africa specific growth strategies. Compared with other Sub-Saharan investment destinations (Table 1), the EAC, with its large population, strong GDP growth, and relative ease of doing business, serves as an attractive market for corporations. Factors responsible for making EAC an attractive target market are: With 137 million people, the EAC is the second largest market in Africa by population Despite the global economic crises, the EAC has grown at an annual rate of ~8% since 2005 and is forecast to grow at 9% through 2016 Large Market In the first decade of its re-establishment, the EAC has successfully implemented a Common External Tariff (CET), common customs procedures, and duty-free trade between member states. These developments have assisted in creating a single market of 137 million people (expected to cross 150 million by 2015), making EAC the second-largest market in Africa in terms of population, after Nigeria, and an enticing prospect for consumer-orientated businesses such as telecom, retail, and financial services. Led by Rwanda, the EAC performs relatively well in the Ease of Doing Business Rankings compared with other African opportunities Nigeria in which most of the accessible market is concentrated in their primary city, the EAC has 6 major urban centers. These centers and the transport networks connecting them greatly increase the proportion of the population that can be accessed and therefore the effective size of the market that can be targeted. Strong Economic Growth Even during the global economic crisis, the EAC’s members showed resilience, witnessing an annual GDP growth rate of ~8% since 2005, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The trend will continue as the EAC is forecasted to grow at ~9.0% in the next 5 years. Due to rapid economic growth and a growing middle class, GDP per capita and disposable incomes have increased, broadening the range of products and services now demanded. Ease of Doing Business A large market is one thing but being able to access it is critical, and this is an area in which the EAC has an advantage. Unlike Angola and Page | 9 During 2006–11, the EAC members made it easier to do business in their nations – a direct result of implementation of 54 reforms since 2004. Rwanda took the lead featuring among the top-10 economies globally that improved the most on ease of doing business. The steps taken by Rwanda set an example for not only the EAC, but also for all Sub-Saharan nations (Figure 7). www.grailresearch.com Though at an overall level, Rwanda is the most-competitive nation, other member states are also catching up in terms of ease of doing business. Sharing of best practices between the member states could be expected to improve the competitiveness of the member states as well as that of the EAC overall. The Doing Business 2011 report states that the EAC’s average global rank of 117 can move up to 18 if these practices were successfully shared. The countries neighboring the EAC have a combined population of 266 million but are generally more challenging environments to operate in. This makes the EAC an attractive base from which to access this largely untapped market English has been adopted as the business language across the EAC, which means EAC based companies can tap into the global skills pool and are able to transfer staff between member states “In 2005, starting a business in Rwanda took 9 procedures and cost 223% of income per capita. In 2010, entrepreneurs could register a new business within 3 days, paying official fees amounting to 8.8% of income per capita. More than 3,000 entrepreneurs took advantage of the efficient process in 2008, up from 700 in previous years” – Doing Business 2011, IFC ability of firms to treat the EAC as a single market and allows smooth transfer of human capital between member states. The choice of English has helped global firms to tap into the available skills pool and facilitate better communication between operations in the EAC and their other offices across the globe. Wider Regional Access The EAC is strategically located in the African continent and neighbors a number of highly populated countries such as Ethiopia, South Sudan, Somalia, DRC, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique (Figure 8). These countries more than double the potential market reachable from the EAC; many of them are relatively more difficult to operate in. Therefore, the option of using the EAC as a stable base to gradually enter these markets has considerable appeal. “EAC market has become a centre of attraction to several multinationals, some of whom have resolved to set up regional offices to facilitate their operations. These firms include, Nokia, IBM, HP, Google, General Electric, soft drinks maker, Coca-Cola Company and auto-dealers, Toyota and General Motors” – The Standard, Kenya, Oct 2011 Diversified Non-oil Based Economy Unlike oil-based economies, such as Angola and much of West Africa, the EAC has a relatively diverse economy with significant contributions from a number of sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, retail, services, and tourism. A diverse economy has allowed it to weather shocks in economic downturn, provide greater opportunities for entrepreneurship, and create a larger and growing middle class. Presence of a Common Language English was chosen as the official language of the EAC and it is mandatory for new members to adopt it as their primary business language. A common business language improves the Page | 10 Access to Untapped Natural Resources The East African region is endowed with a variety of natural resources such as gold, oil, natural gas, copper, cobalt, tin, timber, and arable land. These resources have attracted significant investment in the infrastructure required to extract these resources and transport them to where they can be processed. The recent oil finds in Uganda and the expected quadrupling of the mining industry’s contribution to Tanzania’s GDP by 2025, indicate a positive outlook for the resources sector; while recent targeting of agricultural funds in Tanzania and Uganda promise growth of agribusiness in the region. EAC – What Benefits Have Been Achieved so Far? As a long-term strategy, the EAC has defined four key stages of development: Customs Union, Common Market, Monetary Union, and Political Federation (Figure 9). In 2010, it entered the second phase, Common Market. With the implementation of the Customs Union phase, member states realized improvements in trade, foreign investment, and the overall economy of their nations. www.grailresearch.com The EAC has completed the Customs Union phase and is now working on the Common Market. The Customs Union introduced a common external tariff, duty free trade between members and common customs procedure. The Common Market will introduce free movement of people, labor, services and capital as well the right of establishment and residence Increase in Intra-EAC Trade During 2006–10, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania witnessed significant growth in intraEAC trade (Figure 10). Deeper regional integration has increased trade volumes as well trade as a percentage of GDP. In addition, trade is generally associated with higher value-added activities and its increase as a percentage of GDP, thus, tends to spur growth of income. Informal Cross-Border Trade (ICBT) Despite the existence of formal trade in the EAC region, there exists a large market of Informal Cross-Border Trade (ICBT). The informal economy in the EAC largely corresponds to the micro, small and medium scale enterprises that are primarily unorganized and unregulated. To provide context to the size of this sector: Kenya’s informal economy employs 7.5 million people, which is equivalent to 80% of its employment outside small-scale agriculture. This informal trade also poses a concern for the member states as the national available data does not reflect the true economy. This can negatively impact the members as EAC member states base their policies on the available data. On the other hand, a significant ICBT market hints at the overall potential of trade between the member nations. With ease in trade regulations and provision of the right incentives, a portion of this informal trade could transition into formal trade, which can further boost economic growth of the region. Page | 11 Commodity Trade in the EAC In the past few years, the intra-EAC exports by Kenya have shown diversification into more specialized and processed goods such as petroleum products, chemicals, and lubricants, a trend which is spreading across Uganda and Tanzania (Table 2). www.grailresearch.com The period since the formation of the EAC has corresponded with a significant increase in FDI and intraregional trade; this would indicate that the EAC is contributing to the goals for which it was established Increase in FDI Flow The EAC believes that the realization of its economic potential has contributed to the increase in FDI in the region. Uganda and Tanzania remain the preferred investment destinations (Figure 11) due to Kenya’s restriction on foreign ownership and weak investor protection laws. The total inflow of FDI in the EAC region increased from $1.3 Bn in 2006 to $1.7 Bn in 2009. The upsurge in total FDI into Kenya in 2007 can be primarily attributed to the privatization of ‘Telkom Kenya’, entry of mobile operators in the country, and investment in the railways sector. "The growth in trade and investment within the region has seen several business opportunities spring-up across the region. Furthermore, many Kenyan enterprises, big and small, are enjoying the fruits of the integration process, as opportunities to expand into the region become more possible” – Expert Interview FDI in the EAC region is mainly in manufacturing and construction in Uganda; tourism, manufacturing, and transportation in Tanzania; and tourism, communications, technology, and manufacturing of retail goods in Kenya. “South Africa has not allowed itself to be held back by trade barriers. When you are in Dar-es-Salaam you can eat in the same Spur restaurant as you would in Johannesburg. You can phone with MTN and take your money out of a Standard Bank ATM. South African companies have taken the risks and it has paid off” – Expert Interview Page | 12 EAC – What are the Obstacles? www.grailresearch.com All EAC members belong to more than one Regional Economic Community. Whilst this may enable a much wider regional integration, it can result in clashes between the requirements of the different RECS and slow the progress of reform After ten years, numerous challenges still exist that are slowing down the progress of the EAC including: budgetary constraints, variation in regional and partner state development planning, and inadequate national-level capacities to develop regional policies. The implementation of policies is further slowed down by a weak legal, regulatory, and disputesettlement mechanism, fragile institutional infrastructure, and poor enforcement machinery. Additionally, more challenges were identified during the course of integration, which will test the commitment of the EAC members: 1) Multiple Regional Memberships All EAC members belong to multiple regional unions (Table 3). This poses a concern for regional integration as it slows down the implementation of trade protocols due to clashes with those of the other regional unions. For example, Tanzania, a member of the EAC and SADC, may face complications when SADC establishes its own custom union protocols. Also, multiple memberships mean that human capital and other resources get divided between unions, slowing progress. states are still fragile and a deeper commitment is required to sustain the integration process. 3) Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) Non-tariff barriers refer to those restrictions on the free flow of trade that are not tariff-related and are levied by a country. The EAC defines NTBs as quantitative restrictions and specific limitations that act as obstacles to trade. NTBs are one of the key challenges that the EAC is focusing to eliminate in the integration process as they cause delay and increase costs, which ultimately results in the hindrance of free movement of goods. 4) Prioritization While all members stand to benefit from the EAC, their priorities are not necessarily aligned. A top priority for Rwanda, such as rail access to the coast, is not necessarily important to Tanzania, through whose territory most of the railway line would run. In addition, governments are constrained in terms of resources and need to prioritize between regional projects – which are typically large and long term with indirect benefits, and local projects that are targeted to satisfy their electoral constituencies. This lack of consensus has caused significant delays or halted key projects such as East African Road Map Project and the East African Railway Project. 5) Regional Threats 2) Fragile Relations Differing priorities between EAC members and the clash between national and regional interests are testing commitment levels of member states to integration Recently, relations between Kenya and Uganda were tested when a Chinese construction company, China Roads and Bridge Corporation, managed to pull Kenya out of a bilateral agreement that was signed with Uganda in Oct 2008. Kenya and Uganda had jointly planned to build a modern railway link between the port of Mombasa and Kampala. These turn of events are indicative of the fact that relationships between member “There are still a number of services sectors that are closed or limited. E.g., in Kenya FDI in the telecommunications sector has been limited to 30%; in Uganda non-citizens are not allowed to trade outside of large cities; and in Tanzania the hospitality industry is limited for foreign participation. Lastly there are still a significant number of restrictions on the movement of capital” – Standard Bank, Sept 2011 Page | 13 Currently, the EAC faces multiple threats to peace from regional negative forces, including piracy in the Indian Ocean, Al Shabaab militia in neighboring Somalia, Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), the Lord Resistance Army in the region neighboring Uganda, and the Front Nationale Pour la Liberation (FNL) in Burundi. These conflicts create no-go areas within the region and increase the overall business risk, thereby, reducing its attractiveness as a business destination. EAC – What Benefits are Expected in the Future? www.grailresearch.com While there is no denying the fact that several challenges still exist in realizing the EAC’s aims; the degree of commitment from political and economic leaders towards the integration process presents an optimistic picture. Continued progress towards integration will unlock further benefits to the member states and to firms established within the region. Free Movement of Resources A key component of the EAC treaty is to facilitate free movement of labor between member states. For companies, this will be important as the availability of skills varies across regions and the ability to move staff between member states will help improve their ability to replicate business models across the EAC. same time, competition between organizations that were previously separated by trade barriers is also likely to drive down prices leading to decreased production costs. This stronger base will eventually enable the EAC companies to move up the value chain and better compete in the global market. Better Infrastructure To enhance regional interconnectivity and improve trade relations, the EACs member states have announced plans to invest over $25 Bn in the next decade to build road and rail networks across the region. Recent examples include the following: Increased Competition Continued progress towards integration can be expected to result in a number of changes including: increased competition, greater investment in regional infrastructure, expansion to include additional countries and more freedom in terms of the movement of resources and labor Due to deeper regional integration and positive business outlook, several global companies are planning to or have already entered the East African market (Table 4). Along with more foreign capital, the existence of competition in firms and products will allow EAC companies to access an improved standard of support services such as IT, banking, and telecommunications. In Jan 2009, the EAC prepared an East African Railways Master Plan to improve rail network between member states, funded by World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) In Oct 2011, the EAC, SADC, and COMESA signed a $11.2 Bn contract with Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to improve and develop infrastructure between the regional communities Considering the current challenges in terms of transport infrastructure and the constraint it places on business in terms of reach and costs of distribution, these developments should significantly improve the attractiveness of the EAC. Expanding Geography Having grown to a five member alliance in 2007 with the addition of Burundi and Rwanda, the EAC recently received applications for inclusion in the community from both North and South Sudan. While the inclusion of North Sudan seems unlikely due to significant ideological differences and a poor human rights record, the application of the South was publically welcomed by the heads of Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania. The DRC has also expressed interest in joining the EAC while the addition of Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, would not be unexpected. Improved Operational Efficiency With the opening up of formal trade routes between the member states, companies will be able to access resources from across the region for central processing, allowing for economies of scale to be realized. Scale benefits also arise from being able to service a consumer market that is effectively three times the size of any of the member countries. At the Page | 14 “The completion of the Customs Union and the emergence of the Common Market make the EAC a region with unparallel prospects for investment and trade. No region compares to EAC in Africa and if these prospects are utilized fully, can make the EAC the hub and a major entry point to access the 1 billion people of Africa”— President of Tanzania, May 2011 www.grailresearch.com Conclusion Since its re-inception in 2000, the EAC has made significant strides in laying the foundation for regional integration and a common market. Strong political will and a more equal distribution of benefits between member states have created a more stable and cohesive coalition than its previous incarnation. There are still several challenges that need to be addressed if the EAC is to achieve its long-term goals of monetary union and political federation. It is clear, however, that a critical point has been reached where the fundamental building blocks of cooperation are in place and the members are beginning to plan in a more integrated manner. While the impact on business is only starting to be felt, we can expect an increasing pace of integration over the next 5-10 years and significant strides to be taken to fundamentally change the business landscape. If you plan to be in East Africa for the long-term then the EAC is something that cannot be ignored. Page | 15 Sources The East African Community – Why this time is different’, INSEAD and Centre for Global Development, May 2010 www.grailresearch.com ‘Informal Cross Border Trade in EAC Implications for Regional Integration and Development’, CUTS International, 2010 ‘The Non Tariff Barriers in Trading Within the East African Community’, CUTS International, 2010 ‘EAC Development Strategy Deepening and Accelerating Integration’, EAC, Aug 2011 ‘World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision’, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Jun 2011 ‘International Macroeconomic Data Set’, USDA, Dec 2010 ‘World Economic Outlook Database’, International Monetary Fund, Sep 2011 ‘The World Fact Book’, Central Intelligence Agency, Oct 2011 ‘Brief History’, EAC ‘The Global Competitiveness Report 2011–12’, World Economic Forum ‘Outlook’, Africa Economic Outlook ‘Economy Rankings’, Doing Business, Jun 2011 ‘Trend of Direct Foreign Investment in Kenya Compared to EAC States’, National Assembly Official Report, May 2011 ‘Global Financial Crisis Discussion Series Paper 7: Kenya’, Overseas Development Institute, May 2009 ‘Kenya: Policies for Prosperity’, Oxford University Press and Central Bank of Kenya, 2010 Recent News Articles Primary Research, expert interviews Page | 16 About the Authors Rahul Sethi is the Senior Vice President, North America and Africa, at Grail Research. Before joining Grail Research, he was with Monitor Group’s marketing strategy division. His initial role at Monitor was focused on marketing and brand strategy, in the areas of brand development and implementation, market segmentation and consumer buying processes. He is responsible for the firm’s revenues for a group of strategic accounts, co-manages operations of the Africa Practice, and heads Grail’s Quantitative Research Group. Rahul is based in Boston and holds a bachelor’s degree in economics, a master’s degree in mass communications, and an MBA. Rahul Sethi www.grailresearch.com Carl Neville Marais Carl Neville Marais is Director of Africa at Grail Research. Before joining Grail, Carl consulted to some of the world’s top Investment Banks in London, New York, and South Africa on strategic alignment, process optimization, and risk management. He has travelled extensively within Africa and has visited all the members of the EAC. At Grail, Carl assists global organizations to exploit the opportunities presented by Africa and African firms to access new markets both on the continent and internationally. Carl is based in Johannesburg and holds an Honors degree in Electro-Mechanical Engineering (First Class) from the University of Cape Town and an MBA (with Distinction) from the Gordon Institute of Business Science. Dheeraj Harjai Dheeraj Harjai is an Engagement Manager at Grail Research’s Johannesburg office. He has extensive experience in the areas of analytics, brand tracking, market / consumer segmentation, customer buying processes, developing route-to-market and marketing strategy for clients across geographies and sectors. He is our in-house analytics and quantitative research expert, with deep experience on analytics tools. In the current role, he is responsible for managing key clients, leading projects across Africa, and has travelled extensively in the continent. Dheeraj works out of Johannesburg, South Africa, and holds a bachelor’s degree in Engineering from NSIT, Delhi University. Prior to joining Grail, he worked with one of the largest IT solutions provider in India. Copyright © 2012 by Grail Research, a division of Integreon www.grailresearch.com No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means — electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise — without the permission of Grail Research, a division of Integreon Page | 17
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