The Economic and Social Review, Vol 12, No. 2, January 1981, pp. 97-113
Societal Disintegration i n Northern Ireland:
Fact or Fiction?
KEN HESKIN*
Trinity College, Dublin
Precis: It has been suggested by politicians, journalists and researchers that, as a result of the prolonged
civil conflict in Northern Ireland, societal norms and values may have been seriously eroded and that
the future may be bleak for Northern Irish society, whatever happens politically. This hypothesis is
tested using levels of indictable crime as an index of such social disintegration. Comparisons of, and
predictions from, levels of indictable crime in Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and England
and Wales are made. Similar analyses are conducted on the cities of Belfast and Dublin. No evidence
emerges to support the hypothesis.
I
INTRODUCTION
ny concerned observer o f the N o r t h e r n Irish situation could reasonably
/ ~ \ b e forgiven for t h r o w i n g up his or her hands i n despair from time to
time. The pictures and sketches o f the province portrayed i n the media
t h r o u g h o u t the w o r l d since 1969 have yielded a collage o f violence, unrest
and socio-economic disadvantage. B u t the media collage o f N o r t h e r n Ireland
is, o f course, a selection o f events in the province and, as w i t h all data
selected for a particular purpose, fails t o tell the whole story.
Journalistic and political commentators o n N o r t h e r n Ireland often make
dark references to the future in the province, i m p l y i n g that a p o i n t may
have been reached, or may be about to be reached, beyond w h i c h N o r t h e r n
Irish society w i l l teeter i n t o chaos. For example, the Taoiseach recently
spoke, on the eye o f a meeting w i t h the British Prime Minister to discuss
N o r t h e r n Ireland, o f the "fabric o f society" i n N o r t h e r n Ireland being
endangered (Irish Times, 20 M a y , 1980).
* I would like to thank the following agencies and individuals for their help in the preparation of
this paper: the Statistics Department of the Royal Ulster Constabulary; the Press Office of the Garda
Si'ochana; the Central Statistics Office of the Department of the Taoiseach; Mr. Jerry Harbison,
Social Research Division, Central Economic Service, Department of Finance (NI); Mrs. S. Davis and
Mr. M. O'Rathaille of the Statistics Department, Trinity College, Dublin and last, but by no means
least, Dr. Howard Smith of my own department.
This research was supported by a grant from the Arts and Social Studies Benefaction Fund,
Trinity College, Dublin.
T h e "fabric o f society" is, o f course, a very vague concept, particularly so
i n N o r t h e r n Ireland where, as Rose (1971) has demonstrated, the p o l i t i c a l
circumstances led t o a situation i n w h i c h , despite the lack o f overt conflict,
a substantial section o f the p o p u l a t i o n w i t h h e l d its allegiance from the state.
However, the i m p l i c a t i o n o f the Taoiseach's comments is that despite the
p o l i t i c a l problems p r i o r t o the current " T r o u b l e s " i n N o r t h e r n Ireland, a
society existed whose " f a b r i c " was tolerably robust, and that i n the wake o f
the conflict this may no longer continue t o be the case.
H o w then can one define the "fabric o f society" and, operationally, h o w
m i g h t one measure its rise and fall? Clearly, this is a difficult p r o b l e m . One
m i g h t , for example, l o o k towards the incidence o f industrial disputes,
perhaps particularly unofficial disputes, as an index o f the degree t o w h i c h
individuals and small groups are prepared t o p u t their o w n personal interests
above those o f society at large. However, this is a minefield o f p o t e n t i a l
misinterpretation and misunderstanding given the current c o m p l e x i t y o f
national and international economic affairs and the nature o f industrial
relations t h r o u g h o u t these islands.
One m i g h t also consider many other variables as relating t o the fabric or
cohesion o f society, such as the incidence o f divorce, the rate o f suicide, the
extent o f tax avoidance, b u t such variables no sooner come t o m i n d than
they must be dismissed for a plethora o f reasons concerning b o t h their
v a l i d i t y as indices and the difficulties o f reliable measurement.
I n any case, although the "fabric o f society" is an inherently vague t e r m ,
i t is clear f r o m its usage when applied t o N o r t h e r n Ireland that i t is n o t the
above sorts o f behaviours w h i c h are perceived as the focus o f concern, b u t
rather behaviours more directly l i n k e d t o the consequences o f the conflict
and concerning specifically the issue o f law and order, and public respect
for, and willingness t o abide b y , the law. I n a d d i t i o n , other similar
expressions o f concern f r o m researchers, as opposed to politicians, have been
more specific. For example, referring to the effects o f violence o n children
f r o m the perspective o f psychiatric research, L y o n s (1973) noted that "one
m i g h t anticipate that when peace returns t o N o r t h e r n Ireland there w i l l be
a c o n t i n u i n g epidemic o f violence and anti-social behaviour amongst teen­
agers" (p. 167). More recently, in the c o n t e x t o f research i n t o deviant
attitudes among N o r t h e r n Irish schoolboys, Curran, Jardine and Harbison
(1980) have again raised the issue, n o t i n g that " w h e n peace and stability
r e t u r n , problems o f anti-social behaviour among the y o u n g may emerge and
persist as a major feature o f l i f e " (p. 151).
Politicians and researchers, o f course, speak from different premises and
have different objectives i n m i n d . B u t i t is clear that b o t h views quoted here
express concern t h a t the nature o f the " T r o u b l e s " is such that its effects
may permeate N o r t h e r n Irish society and produce a widespread anti-social
climate i n w h i c h respect for the law w i l l be greatly diminished, even in the
^
event o f a p o l i t i c a l settlement. A n even sharper focus on the issue has been
provided b y the Chief Constable o f the R U C . I n his A n n u a l Report t o the
Police A u t h o r i t y for N o r t h e r n Ireland (1979) he observes, i n relation t o
increases i n the level o f indictable crime that "the general climate o f law­
lessness brought about b y a decade o f terrorism has lowered c o m m u n i t y
restraint and personal discipline" ( p . 5 ) .
I n view o f the fact that more than a decade o f conflict has n o w passed
i n N o r t h e r n Ireland, i t w o u l d seem reasonable, at this p o i n t , t o t r y t o l o o k
objectively at the evidence u n d e r l y i n g these fears and assertions. A l t h o u g h
the "fabric o f society" covers a broad conceptual sweep, for reasons o f
practicality the proposal here is t o l o o k particularly at N o r t h e r n Irish society
i n terms o f prevalence o f indictable crime as indicated b y official crime
statistics. I t is felt that this approach is j u s t i f i e d because: (i) p o l i t i c a l crime
apart, the general consensus is u n d o u b t e d l y that law and order should be
upheld and that failure t o u p h o l d law and order produces an unacceptable
society; there have, for instance, been many reports o f unofficial law en­
forcement i n communities i n N o r t h e r n Ireland where, f r o m t i m e t o t i m e ,
there has been l i t t l e or n o police presence; (ii) as noted above, the p r o b l e m
has been expressed i n terms o f crime, either specifically or b y i m p l i c a t i o n ;
(iii) c r i m i n a l trends i n N o r t h e r n Ireland, whatever the problems o f their
relationship to other aspects o f N o r t h e r n Irish society, are intrinsically
important.
I t is n o t , however, sufficient t o l o o k at trends i n crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland
alone i n relation t o this p r o b l e m for variations i n crime rates m i g h t thus be
spuriously a t t r i b u t e d t o conditions i n the province w h e n , even i n the absence
o f such conditions, similar variations m i g h t have occurred. I t was, therefore,
thought appropriate to compare rates o f indictable crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland
w i t h rates o f indictable crime i n the Republic o f Ireland and i n England and
Wales. This approach raises t w o broad issues, one concerning the validity o f
crime rates as indices o f the extent o f anti-social behaviour, the other con­
cerning the comparability o f the three areas i n these terms.
I t is often argued that the v i o l a t i o n o f the extant c r i m i n a l law is an
artificial criterion o f c r i m i n a l i t y since such laws vary f r o m location t o loca­
t i o n and i n the same location over t i m e . I n this view, a more appropriate w a y
of l o o k i n g at anti-social behaviour is i n terms o f the conduct norms o f
particular groups o f individuals i n particular societies at particular times
(Sellin, 1938). While there is u n d o u b t e d l y merit i n this approach f r o m an
abstract conceptual v i e w p o i n t , i n practice i t leads t o greater problems than
those w h i c h i t seeks t o avoid. As Tappan (1947) has p o i n t e d o u t , the criminal
law o f a given society provides precise norms o f behaviour, defines meticu­
lously its criteria of anti-social action and clearly identifies at least some anti­
social individuals. The alternative approach leads towards a situation i n
w h i c h the norms o f conduct, i f identifiable at a l l , are at least as relative,
transient and variable, and i n w h i c h there is no practical and objective means
o f identifying, let alone q u a n t i f y i n g anti-social behaviour (see Schwendinger
and Schwendinger, 1975).
A more practical p r o b l e m i n regard t o official crime statistics is the
question o f their v a l i d i t y as indicators o f crime (as defined i n law) i n a given
society. Official statistics are c o m m o n l y held t o represent o n l y a p r o p o r t i o n
of crime and i t is t h o u g h t that a much greater amount o f crime is c o m m i t t e d
than ever comes t o the a t t e n t i o n o f the police. This is probably true, b u t the
crucial issue is whether N o r t h e r n Irish statistics are more than usually dis­
t o r t e d i n this respect as a result o f the civil conflict. This possibility has been
suggested b y Curran, Jardine and Harbison ( 1 9 8 0 ) .
M y o w n view is that the N o r t h e r n Irish statistics do n o t , more than
usually, underestimate the real p r o b l e m for t w o substantial reasons: (1)
N o r t h e r n Ireland is a small c o u n t r y w i t h a small p o p u l a t i o n w h i c h limits the
amount o f crime, particularly indictable crime, that can occur unnoticed b y
the powers t h a t be; (2) the extensive police and security forces intelligence
operations i n the province seem l i k e l y t o y i e l d at least as accurate a picture
o f crime as is obtained elsewhere i n the British Isles, n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the
probable reluctance o f some people i n some few areas to report some sorts
of conflict-related crime. Indeed, the p r o b l e m o f reluctance to co-operate
w i t h the police i n certain areas is b y no means confined to N o r t h e r n Ireland.
The same p r o b l e m has become a feature o f life i n certain areas i n B r i t a i n ,
particularly areas w i t h a large immigrant p o p u l a t i o n , and i n some areas o f
the Republic o f Ireland, for example, certain tenement and high-rise loca­
tions i n D u b l i n .
W i t h the exception o f Scotland, w h i c h has quite a different legal system,
comparisons o f broad criminal trends w i t h i n the major administrative areas
o f the British Isles is, b y good fortune, possible and w i t h o u t major com­
plication. The legal system i n N o r t h e r n Ireland is basically the same as the
system i n England and Wales, apart from temporary differences arising under
the terms o f various pieces o f emergency legislation. There are other m i n o r
differences, for example, relating t o homosexuality, w h i c h remains a crime
i n N o r t h e r n Ireland b u t n o t i n England and Wales. However, i n terms o f the
variable under study, indictable crime k n o w n t o the police, these differences
are insignificant or irrelevant.
The legal system i n the Republic o f Ireland is also basically the same as
the system in England and Wales, having been inherited from Britain at the
time o f P a r t i t i o n , although subsequently overlaid w i t h the guiding para­
meters o f the Irish C o n s t i t u t i o n . There are differences between the t w o
systems i n the rights o f the accused, for example, w h i c h are irrelevant to the
variable under study, and m i n o r evolutionary differences w h i c h are insignifi­
cant.
Finally, there are marked differences between areas i n N o r t h e r n Ireland i n
the level and frequency o f violence to w h i c h they have been exposed
(Schellenberg, 1977). However, o f all places i n N o r t h e r n Ireland where the
"fabric o f society" hypothesis should, i f valid, f i n d support, none is more
l i k e l y than the c i t y o f Belfast, for most observers, the hub o f Ulster's ills.
Since the international media first focused its a t t e n t i o n o n N o r t h e r n Ireland,
Belfast has become synonymous w i t h civil conflict, social unrest and danger.
D u b l i n , o n the other hand, while o n l y one hundred miles away, has
continued t o enjoy its r e p u t a t i o n as a friendly and beautiful capital c i t y ,
although occasionally feeling the backlash o f tourist t r e p i d a t i o n about its
p r o x i m i t y t o its N o r t h e r n counterpart. I n view o f the fact that D u b l i n is
a particularly appropriate comparison c i t y t o Belfast for geographical, his­
torical, economic, p o l i t i c a l and socio-cultural reasons, a subsidiary test o f the
hypothesis was conducted o n crime data f r o m these cities.
I I RESULTS
Table 1 sets o u t the details o f indictable crime k n o w n to the police i n
N o r t h e r n Ireland, the Republic o f Ireland and England and Wales for the
years 1960-1978, 1978 being the latest year for w h i c h all figures are avail-
T a b l e 1: Indictable
(Rates per 1,000
Northern
Ireland
offences
known
population
Republic
in
of
to the
police
parentheses)
Ireland
England
and
Wales
1960
8460
(
5.96)
15357
(
5.46)
744000
(16.25)
1961
9850
(
6.90)
14818
(17.47)
10286
( 7.16)
(» 7.50)
15307
5-24)
5.39)
807000
1962
1963
1964
(
(
896000
(19.22)
16203
(
5.68)
978000
(20.85)
12846
(
(
7.15)
8.75)
17700
16736
(
(
6.18)
5.83)
1068000
1965
1134000
(22.62)
(23.85)
1966
1967
14673
15404
(
9.94)
19029
20558
(
6.60)
1200000
(25.09)
(10.35)
(
7.08)
1207000
(25.09)
1968
1969
16294
(10.84)
23104
(26.66)
(13.41)
25972
7.91)
8.83)
1289000
20303
(
(
1499000
(30.88)
1970
24810
(16.25)
30756
(10.39)
1568000
(32.21)
1971
30828
(20.04)
37781
(12.69)
1666000
(34.10)
1972
1973
1974
35884
32057
(23.23)
39237
(12.96)
1690000
(34.47)
38022
40096
(12.36)
1658000
(33.73)
33314
(20.72)
(21.54)
(12.83)
1963000
(42.84)
1975
37239
(24.23)
48387
(15.25)
2106000
(42.84
1976
1977
39779
(25.95)
(16.88)
45335
(29.50)
54382
62946
(19.24)
2136000
2637000
(43.47)
(53.68)
1978
46499
(30.21)
62000
(18.68)
2562000
(52.16)
10859
10428
able at the t i m e o f w r i t i n g . The t o t a l number o f offences and the estimated
rates per 1,000 p o p u l a t i o n are given. Notes o n the estimation o f rates o f
crime i n this study are given i n an appendix. Figure 1 plots graphically the
rate o f crime per year i n three areas.
The first analysis undertaken was to correlate the data o n indictable crime
i n the three areas. The results o f this analysis are given i n Table 2.
T a b l e 2: Product-moment
Northern
Total number
of
Ireland,
correlations
between
the Republic
indictable
of Ireland
crime data (1960-1978)
and England
Rate per 1,000
offences
N . I r e . / R . of Ire.
and
in
Wales
population
.9909
.9846
N . I r e . / R . of I r e .
N . I r e . / E n g . and Wales
=
.9717
N . I r e . / E n g . a n d Wales
=
.9709
R . o f I r e . / E n g a n d Wales
=
.9811
R . o f I r e . / E n g . a n d Wales
=
.9795
Table 3 sets o u t the details o f indictable crime k n o w n t o the police i n the
Greater Belfast Police Area and the D u b l i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Area for the years
1964-1978. I t was n o t possible t o include the years 1960-1963 i n this com­
parison because the D M A was extended considerably i n 1964, w h i c h makes
the pre- and post-1964 comparisons misleading. Figure 2 plots graphically
the rate o f crime per year i n the t w o cities.
T a b l e 3 : Indictable
(Rates per 1,000
offences
population
known
in
to the
police
parentheses)
Belfast
Dublin
1964
1965
5844
( 9-74)
(11.94)
10211
(12.84)
7165
9192
(11.50)
1966
7677
8164
(12.80)
(13.61)
11162
(13.91)
12170
(15.08)
8454
(14.09)
13985
9169
13790
(15.28)
15270
18318
(17.24)
(18.74)
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
(22.98)
16384* (27.31)
23805
(28.00)
1972
18977
(32.00)
23254
(28.00)
1973
16325
(27.81)
21957
(26.50)
1974
17226
(29.70)
22557
(27.20)
1975
18996
(33.15)
26807
(32.30)
1976
1977
20062
23030
22898
(35.45)
29872
35899
(43.00)
35024
(42.20)
1978
(41.20)
(41.48)
• A c t u a l figure unavailable. E s t i m a t e d as ( 1 9 7 0 + 1 9 7 2 ) / 2 .
(22.37)
(36.00)
The correlation between the t o t a l number o f indictable offences i n Belfast
and D u b l i n is .9755 and between rates o f crime, .9827.
A series o f trend-line analyses was computed o n the data. This type o f
analysis is based on linear regression and enables predictions t o be made o n
the assumption that a given trend is linear. The degree t o w h i c h r i n the
analysis approaches u n i t y gives an indication o f h o w valid this assumption
is on the basis o f the available data.
2
First, for each o f the three areas, a trend-line analysis was c o m p u t e d
based o n the 1960-1968 rates o f crime and predictions were made t o rates i n
1975 and 1978. I n a d d i t i o n , predictions were made i n each case o f w h e n the
actual 1978 rate w o u l d be achieved. The results o f these analyses are shown
i n Table 4.
T a b l e 4: Trend-line
analyses based on 1960-1968
(Rate per 1,000
population)
Northern
Ireland
2
(r
=.925)
1975 p r e d i c t e d rate
Republic
of
2
(r
1978 p r e d i c t e d rate
crime
England
2
(r
and
=
9.43
Wales
.976)
36.43
(15.25)
(24.23)
( 1 9 7 8 actual rate)
Ireland
= .83 7)
15.00
( 1 9 7 5 actual rate)
indictable
(42.84)
16.84
10.33
40.39
(30.21)
(18.68)
(52.16)
1999
2003
1986
P r e d i c t e d date of 1 9 7 8
a c t u a l rate
Second, trend-line analyses were computed for the three areas based o n
the 1969-1978 rates o f crime. Predictions were made t o the years 1985,
1990 and 2000. I n a d d i t i o n , i n the case o f N o r t h e r n Ireland, a p r e d i c t i o n
was made o f when the rate o f crime there w o u l d reach the 1978 rate i n
T a b l e 5: Trend-line
analyses
based on 1969-1978
(Rate per 1,000
Northern
2
(r
=
Ireland
.938)
indictable
crime
population)
Republic
2
(r
of
Ireland
=.916)
England and Wales
(r = .884)
2
1985 P r e d i c t e d rate
46.57
26.48
69.02
1 9 9 0 P r e d i c t e d rate
56.55
31.90
81.74
2 0 0 0 P r e d i c t e d rate
76.51
42.74
107.20
1. Predicted date of Northern Ireland's crime rate reaching the actual 1978 rate in England and
Wales = 1987.
2. Predicted date of Republic of Ireland's crime rate reaching the actual 1978 level in (a) Northern
Ireland = 1988; (b) England and Wales = 2008.
England and Wales; i n the case o f the Republic o f Ireland, predictions were
made as to w h e n the Republic's rate w o u l d reach the 1978 rates i n N o r t h e r n
I r e l a n d and i n England and Wales. The results o f these analyses are shown i n
Table 5.
Finally, trend-line analyses were computed for the Belfast and D u b l i n
crime rate data i n a similar manner. The results o f these analyses appear i n
Table 6 and Table 7.
T a b l e 6: Trend-line
analyses
based on 1964-1968
(Rate per 1,000
indictable
crime
population)
Dublin
Belfast
2
(r
=
2
(r
.914)
=
25.66
21.77
1975 P r e d i c t e d rate
24.88
(32.30)
28.97
(41.48)
(42.20)
(33.15)
( 1 9 7 5 A c t u a l rate)
1 9 7 8 P r e d i c t e d rate
( 1 9 7 8 A c t u a l rate)
.797)
P r e d i c t e d date of
T a b l e 7: Trend-line
analyses
(Rate
based on 1969-78
per 1,000
indictable
crime
population)
Dublin
Belfast
1985 P r e d i c t e d rate
2
(r
1985 P r e d i c t e d rate
1988
1993
1 9 7 8 actual rate
=
.884)
59.17
2
(r
=
.889)
58.95
1 9 9 0 P r e d i c t e d rate
71.57
71.35
2 0 0 0 Predicted rate
96.38
96.14
I I I DISCUSSION
I t has been noted i n previous research that the rates of indictable crime i n
N o r t h e r n Ireland are considerably below those in England and Wales (Jardine, Curran and Harbison, 1978) and that there is a close relationship, o n
less substantial evidence, between levels o f crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland and
levels in England and Wales and the Republic o f Ireland (Heskin, 1980a;
1980b). This study extends and adds weight t o these observations, showing
a very close relationship between trends i n crime i n the t w o parts o f Ireland
and i n England and Wales.
Figure 1 shows very clearly that the rate o f indictable crime i n N o r t h e r n
Ireland was slightly above the rate o f crime i n the Republic up u n t i l 1969
when the " T r o u b l e s " began. The gap widened subsequently and reached a
peak i n 1972, the year i n w h i c h i n t e r n m e n t was i n t r o d u c e d and civil t u r m o i l
was at its worst. Indeed, the graph shows that had the trend o f 1969-1972
continued, then N o r t h e r n Irish society w o u l d have been heading for serious
problems i n terms o f the premises o f this study. However, that t r e n d d i d n o t
continue, although the increased level o f crime relative t o the Republic and
B r i t a i n represents, i n this logic, a net weakening o f the fabric o f society i n
N o r t h e r n Ireland.
I n relation t o England and Wales, Figure 1 shows a converse n a r r o w i n g
trend i n the gap between N o r t h e r n Ireland and Britain between 1969 and
1972, and, indeed, suggests the possibility that had the trend continued,
N o r t h e r n Ireland might w e l l have approached or even overtaken British rates
of crime. However, the graph also shows that subsequent to 1972, the rate o f
increase i n England and Wales has been higher than i n N o r t h e r n Ireland or,
indeed, the Republic o f Ireland.
A t a naive level o f analysis, i t could be argued that the rate o f indictable
crime has increased more i n N o r t h e r n Ireland between 1960 and 1978 than
has been the case i n the other t w o areas. Thus the increase i n that period,
comparing rates i n 1978 w i t h those i n 1960, is 507 per cent compared t o
342 per cent for the Republic and 3 2 1 per cent for England and Wales. B u t
such comparisons are highly misleading since they vary as a function o f the
particular base rate chosen and take no account o f the m u c h more i m p o r t a n t
t r e n d i n the data. Hence, i f one were t o compare the increase for the period
1968 to 1978 then the increases w o u l d be as follows: N o r t h e r n Ireland 279
per cent; Republic o f Ireland 236 per cent; England and Wales 196 per cent.
Were one t o take 1972 as a base p o i n t , then the increases at 1978 w o u l d be:
N o r t h e r n Ireland 130 per cent; Republic o f Ireland 144 per cent; England
and Wales 151 per cent. Therefore, the most rational way o f l o o k i n g at crime
rates i n N o r t h e r n Ireland is in terms o f the overall t r e n d i n comparison w i t h
overall trends elsewhere i n these islands.
I n general terms, the most remarkable feature o f the relationship between
rates o f crime i n the three areas is h o w closely related they are. This is
evident graphically in Figure 1 w h i c h , for example, shows all three areas
gradually increasing t h r o u g h o u t the 1960s, h i t t i n g an early 1970s peak i n
1972, decreasing between 1972 and 1973, subsequently rising again and
showing a levelling-off or decrease between 1977 and 1978. Statistically,
the close relationship is evident in the very high correlation values in Table
2, closely approaching u n i t y .
H o w , therefore, can we relate these data to the n o t i o n o f widespread
societal disintegration i n N o r t h e r n Ireland as a result o f the present conflict?
Quite clearly, the rate o f crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland is increasing, b u t the
a t t r i b u t i o n o f t h a t increase exclusively, or even substantially t o the
" T r o u b l e s " does n o t , apart f r o m the period 1969 t o 1972, appear to be
j u s t i f i e d . Correlations tell us n o t h i n g about causality, b u t while a case c o u l d
be made for the a t t r i b u t i o n o f some small amount o f the increase i n crime
rates i n the Republic to the effects o f the conflict i n the N o r t h , i t is hardly
tenable t o argue that there is a causal l i n k o f any substance between the
" T r o u b l e s " i n N o r t h e r n Ireland and crime rates i n England and Wales.
Crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland w o u l d have increased, on the basis of trends i n
the Republic and England and Wales i n any case. That " n o r m a l " increase
was accelerated as a result o f the civil conflict between 1969 and 1972.
However, subsequent t o 1972, that acceleration i n trend ceased entirely
and the t r e n d reverted to its previous pattern, closely l i n k e d to the general
British Isles t r e n d . Indeed, subsequent t o 1972, the rate o f increase o f crime
i n N o r t h e r n Ireland has been d i s t i n c t l y below that o f England and Wales.
These data do n o t represent uniquely catastrophic portents for N o r t h e r n
Irish society, b u t rather they indicate the remarkably robust n o r m a l i t y o f
society i n the province.
This interpretation is strengthened b y the trend-line analyses o f crime
rates i n the three areas. Table 4 uses the 1960-1968 crime rate data i n the
three areas t o predict rates o f crime i n 1975 and 1978. The table shows that
in all cases, the predictions underestimate the actual rates o f crime, i n ­
dicating an acceleration in the t r e n d o f crime i n these islands generally i n
the post-1968 period.
Table 5 uses the 1969-1978 data as a basis for predicting future rates.
The rate i n England and Wales appears to be accelerating somewhat during
this period, w h i c h is reflected i n the slightly lower r value for the predic­
tions for England and Wales compared t o the other t w o areas. However, a
linear estimate was still felt to be the best bet for the English and Welsh
data. I n a d d i t i o n , b y maintaining a p a r i t y of approach i n these predictions,
such a solution obviates the potential criticism o f gilding the l i l y o f the n u l l
hypothesis b y means o f statistical prestidigitation.
These analyses indicate, broadly speaking, that the differentials between
the three areas w i l l remain similar for the remainder o f this century. There is
a very slight tendency for N o r t h e r n Ireland's predicted rate o f increase t o be
less than that o f England and Wales, and a very slight tendency for the
Republic's predicted rate o f increase to be less than that of N o r t h e r n Ireland.
O f course, the fact remains that very serious crime has increased as part
and parcel o f the civil conflict. U p to the end of 1978, 1,881 lives had been
lost i n the " T r o u b l e s " since 1969, and i t is o f l i t t l e consolation that this
figure is o n l y 60 per cent o f the t o t a l killed on the roads in the same period
(3,112). One has to see these figures i n the c o n t e x t o f the fact that at no
2
time during the 1960s p r i o r t o 1969 d i d the t o t a l number o f murders com­
m i t t e d i n the entire province i n any one year reach double figures. I n 1965,
for example, there was one murder i n N o r t h e r n Ireland. For those w h o only
k n o w Belfast as a result of the present " T r o u b l e s " , i t may come as a surprise
t o learn that i n the Greater Belfast Police Area, w h i c h contains some 40 per
cent o f the t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n o f N o r t h e r n Ireland, the sum t o t a l o f murders
c o m m i t t e d i n the 1960s p r i o r to 1969 d i d n o t reach double figures. I n fact,
i n the five-year period 1960-1964, one solitary murder was c o m m i t t e d i n
that c i t y .
The data presented i n Tables 1 and 2 lead t o w a r d the conclusion that,
n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the fact that very serious crime related t o the conflict
is a feature o f the situation i n N o r t h e r n Ireland, (a) i t is statistically a rather
insignificant element i n the sum t o t a l o f indictable crime i n the province
and (b) i t appears t o be largely insulated and n o t influential on the trend o f
crime i n the province generally. The former o f these conclusions is, consis­
tent w i t h the findings o f Jardine, Curran and Harbison (1978) w h o com­
pared the patterns o f indictable crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland and England and
Wales and f o u n d that i n b o t h cases, the vast majority o f offences were
"crimes o f dishonesty", and that conflict-related juvenile crime i n N o r t h e r n
Ireland constituted a relatively small p r o p o r t i o n o f all offences.
The data o n crime i n D u b l i n and Belfast afford us a further o p p o r t u n i t y
t o examine the n o t i o n o f a conflict-engendered collapse i n N o r t h e r n Irish
society. Table 3 and Figure 2 show very clearly that the t w o cities have been
subject to remarkably similar rates o f crime over recent years, " T r o u b l e s "
or no " T r o u b l e s " . Figure 2, plus the high correlation between rates o f crime
i n the t w o cities indicate h o w closely related have been the trends in crime,
w i t h the 1972 peak again evident i n the Belfast rate. These data are particu­
larly damaging t o the n o t i o n o f a disintegrating society i n N o r t h e r n Ireland,
since we w o u l d expect t o see most evidence o f such disintegration i n the city
o f Belfast.
Table 6 shows that the trend-line predictions based on 1964-1968 rates o f
crime underestimated the actual rates of crime i n 1975 and 1978, again
indicating an acceleration in the t r e n d o f crime in b o t h cities i n the post1968 period. However, far from heading towards its o w n peculiar disaster on
the basis o f a decade o f civil conflict, Table 7 shows trend-line predictions o f
future rates o f crime in the t w o cities in w h i c h Belfast is on more or less
exactly the same course as D u b l i n . A tenacious, i f bloodied "fabric o f
society" exponent m i g h t still argue his case o n the strength o f some
nebulous, vicarious influence on D u b l i n society. However, in view o f the
findings i n this study in regard to rates o f crime i n the three societies gener­
ally, such a line of argument seems untenable.
On a more general note, i t is somewhat surprising t o note h o w closely
related c r i m i n a l trends in the three geographical areas are. One m i g h t have
expected that the Republic o f Ireland and N o r t h e r n Ireland, t w o contiguous,
conservative, religious and traditionalist societies, w o u l d have reasonable
similarity i n trends, although the similarity o f the trend remains remarkable
(r = .9909). However, that b o t h should so closely match the trend o f crime
i n England and Wales is unexpected.
B u t , perhaps this is o n l y surprising t o someone n u r t u r e d o n the i m p o r t ­
ance of small differences between one's o w n group and other groups i n these
islands. One should n o t prejudge the issue o f causality i n these relationships,
b u t perhaps i t is n o t inappropriate to note that t o the outsider, the continen­
tal European or American, for example, i t may not be so surprising that
people w h o speak the same language, watch the same television programmes,
share close cultural links generally, have the same economic problems, and
intermingle freely i n an insular outpost o f Europe, should f i n d that their
social problems are closely related.
I V CONCLUSIONS
I t w o u l d be foolish for anyone t o ignore the fact that N o r t h e r n Ireland
has seen, and continues t o see, a level o f very serious crime, unprecedented
in its history, as a result o f the civil conflict that erupted there i n 1969. N o
one should underestimate the problems facing N o r t h e r n Ireland i n the
future. Equally, no one should overestimate the problems o f a c o m m u n i t y
w h i c h has enough real problems t o deal w i t h w i t h o u t having t o contem­
plate imaginary ones. The "fabric o f society" hypothesis, on the basis o f this
study, appears t o be such an imaginary p r o b l e m .
The data and argument presented here lead to the conclusion that the
phenomena o f civil conflict i n N o r t h e r n Ireland have pushed up the general
level o f crime b e y o n d that w h i c h i t m i g h t otherwise have been i n the absence
of the " T r o u b l e s " . T o that extent, the fabric o f society i n N o r t h e r n Ireland
has been weakened. However, contrary to the "fabric of society" hypothesis,
there is no evidence that crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland is on the b r i n k o f
epidemic proportions at this p o i n t , as a result o f the civil conflict.
Judging f r o m trends elsewhere in the British Isles, trends w h i c h are closely
related t o the trend o f crime i n N o r t h e r n Ireland, i t is clear that the increase
i n crime due to the " T r o u b l e s " has stabilised at quite a l o w level. Statistical
projections indicate that this relative position w i l l be maintained i n the
foreseeable future. Comparisons between the cities o f Belfast and D u b l i n
c o n f i r m these indications and all of these indications suggest that crime i n
N o r t h e r n Ireland is influenced largely b y the same factors, whatever they
are, that bear u p o n crime elsewhere i n these islands.
However, the n o t i o n that the conflict is at the r o o t of all of Ulster's ills
is understandable. The conflict, after all, is " v i s i b l e " and therefore readily
presents itself as an explanation. U n f o r t u n a t e l y , i t also presents itself as an
excuse for glossing over other possible aspects o f the p r o b l e m , such as
u n e m p l o y m e n t , l o w wages, high prices, poor housing and so f o r t h . F r o m the
p o i n t of view o f commentators outside the province, whether in the
Republic o f Ireland or i n England and Wales, i t also serves to distract public
a t t e n t i o n f r o m similar problems occurring i n these societies. The implica­
t i o n o f the present study is that b o t h o f these ancillary aspects o f the dooms­
day view of N o r t h e r n Ireland, n o t w i t h s t a n d i n g the hard core of the p r o b l e m ,
may rest on very shaky foundations.
REFERENCES
CURRAN,
DAMIAN,
EDGAR JARDINE
associated w i t h the development
and J E R E M Y H A R B I S O N ,
1980. "Factors
o f deviant attitudes i n N o r t h e r n Ireland
b o y s " i n J e r e m y H a r b i s o n a n d J o a n H a r b i s o n (eds.), A Society
Under
Stress,
school­
Somer­
set, S h e p t o n Mallet, O p e n B o o k s .
H E S K I N , K E N , 1 9 8 0 a . Northern
Ireland:
A Psychological
Analysis,
Dublin: Gill & Mac-
millan.
HESKIN,
K E N , 1980b.
" C h i l d r e n a n d y o u n g people i n N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d : a research
review", i n J e r e m y H a r b i s o n a n d J o a n H a r b i s o n (eds.), A Society
Under Stress,
Somer­
set: S h e p t o n Mallet, O p e n B o o k s .
JARDINE,
EDGAR,
DAMIAN CURRAN
offenders and their offences:
and
and J E R E M Y H A R B I S O N ,
1978. " Y o u n g
some comparisons between N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d , E n g l a n d
S c o t l a n d " , Paper presented to the N o r t h e r n I r e l a n d R e g i o n a l Office, British
Psychological S o c i e t y C o n f e r e n c e o n Children
Stress
LYONS,
and
Young
People
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in Belfast, September.
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1 9 7 3 . " V i o l e n c e in Belfast -
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effects",
V o l . 5, N o . 3, p p . 1 6 3 - 1 6 8 .
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without
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SCHWENDINGER,
HERMAN
and J U L I A
SCHWENDINGER,
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"Defenders
of
O r d e r or G u a r d i a n s of H u m a n R i g h t s ? " , in I . T a y l o r , P. W a l t o n and J . Y o u n g (eds.),
Critical
Criminology,
SHELLENBERG,
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JAMES,
Focus,
SELLIN, THORSTEN,
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" A r e a variations of violence
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1 9 3 8 . " C u l t u r e , conflict and c r i m e " , Bulletin
41, S o c i a l Science
R e s e a r c h C o u n c i l , p p . 17-32.
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APPENDIX
Notes on the estimation
of rates of crime
1. Unless otherwise stated below, the rate o f crime i n this study is simply
the t o t a l number o f indictable offences k n o w n t o the police, as published
officially b y the relevant a u t h o r i t y , divided b y the number o f thousands o f
t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n either determined b y census or official estimate.
2. Table 2
Census figures are available for the years 1 9 6 1 , 1966, 1971 and 1979 for the
Republic o f Ireland. The p o p u l a t i o n was here taken as having increased b y
the same amount annually between census dates. The 1979 census revealed
that the p o p u l a t i o n had increased b y well over 100,000 more than official
predictions. Consequently, although the Garda Commissioner's annual
Report on Crime had published official rates o f crime for the Republic as a
whole since 1968, these have been revised i n this study i n an effort t o maxi­
mise accuracy. The effect o f this revision was a slight l o w e r i n g o f the recent
rates o f crime i n the Republic compared t o the officially published rates.
3. Table 3
(i) Details o f indictable crime i n Belfast are n o t published officially. Details
o f the t o t a l number o f indictable offences c o m m i t t e d annually i n the
Greater Belfast Police District were obtained f r o m the Statistics Section o f
the R o y a l Ulster Constabulary. The 1971 figures are unavailable as they have
been misplaced.
The Greater Belfast Police District does not c o n f o r m precisely t o any
census area, b u t closely approximates the Belfast Urban Area. The popula­
t i o n was therefore taken as that o f the Belfast Urban Area, the p o p u l a t i o n o f
w h i c h is n o t precisely k n o w n . However, a survey estimate is available for
1978 and a census figure for 1 9 7 1 . As the 1978 estimated p o p u l a t i o n is
approximately 50,000 lower than the 1971 figure, the population for the
intervening years was estimated as o u t l i n e d i n N o t e 2. D u r i n g the 1960s, the
p o p u l a t i o n o f Belfast is thought t o have been very stable and the 1971
census figure (600,166) is therefore used i n calculating Belfast rates of crime
d u r i n g the period 1960-1971.
(ii) The D u b l i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Area does n o t approximate any census area
i n the Republic o f Ireland. However, since 1 9 7 1 , the Garda Commissioner's
annual Report on Crime has published a separate estimated rate o f indictable
crime for the D M A based o n an estimate o f the D M A p o p u l a t i o n . These
official rates are used for the years 1971-1978. Between 1960 and 1 9 7 1 , the
p o p u l a t i o n o f the Republic increased b y approximately a half per cent per
annum. The p o p u l a t i o n o f the D M A during this period was taken as having
similarly increased. The D M A p o p u l a t i o n p r i o r t o 1971 was therefore esti­
m a t e d back f r o m the Garda Commissioner's 1971 estimated D M A popula­
t i o n , reducing the figure b y a half per cent per annum, and the rates o f crime
calculated accordingly.