Market Alert
Weekly Market Update
March 31, 2017
Bigger than anticipated soybean acreage pressures prices on Friday
Markets were mostly quiet for the bulk of the week leading up to Friday’s USDA Prospective Plantings report. The USDA’s survey of growers calls for a record 89.5 million
acres of soybeans this season (a jump of 6 million!), while corn area is expected down
4 million. March 1 grain stocks for the key crops, while not too far from analyst expectations, are all up at least 10% from last year. With the USDA data out of the way, markets will start to focus more on the weather and planting conditions, which look generally favorable at this point due to good soil moisture throughout most of the Corn Belt.
With the bearish acreage number, Nov ‘17 soybeans closed the week down 23 cents to
$9.54/bu (the fourth consecutive weekly drop). Dec ‘17 corn gained 9 cents to $3.88/
bu, while Jul ‘17 HRW lost another 7 cents to $4.34/bu (also the fourth straight drop).
USDA Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks
Corn acreage intentions of 90.0 million acres are down 4.0 million (-4%) from last year’s planted area and right in line with the
USDA’s Outlook Forum forecast a month ago. The number was
supportive for corn as analysts had predicted 91.0 million acres
ahead of the report. The USDA shows corn acreage is expected
down or flat in 38 of the 48 estimating states. Iowa looks to trim
corn area by the greatest amount (-600,000 ac), while Minnesota
(-450,000) and Missouri (-400,000) will also likely see lower
plantings. Partially offsetting the semi-bullish intentions were big
corn stocks of 8.6 billion bushels. While not far from expectations, last season’s massive crop was evident with stocks up
10% y-o-y.
New Crop
Prices
$Bu
Sbns
5.0
11.0
4.8
10.5
4.5
10.0
4.3
9.5
4.0
9.0
3.8
8.5
3.5
The USDA released two widely anticipated reports this morning - Prospective Plantings
and March 1 Grain Stocks. The plantings report is based on a survey of over 83,000
farmers conducted during the first two weeks of March and provides the first official
estimates of U.S. farmer planting intentions for 2017.

$Bu
Crn/Wht
Source: CME
8.0
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Dec 17 Corn
Nov 17 Soybeans
Jul 17 HRW Wht
Prospective Planting
Analyst Expectations
2017
Million Acres Intentions Average
Range
Corn
90.0
91.0
90.0 - 92.5
Soybeans
89.5
88.2
86.4 - 89.3
All Wheat
46.1
46.1
44.2 - 48.2
Cotton
12.2
Sorghum
5.8
Source: USDA, Reuters
2016
Planted
94.0
83.4
50.2
10.1
6.7
2015
Planted
88.0
82.7
55.0
8.6
8.5
Quarterly Stocks as of March 1

Soybean intentions of a record 89.5 million acres came in
Analyst Expectations
above the high-end of analyst expectations and, if accurate, will
2017
Average
Range
2016
2015
top last year’s crop by more than 6 million acres. This would be Bil Bushels
only the sixth time a y-o-y change topped 6 million. Bean area Corn
8.62
8.53
8.21 - 8.90
7.82
7.75
across the “I-states” is expected up 1.05 million acres, while Soybeans
1.73
1.68
1.63 - 1.89
1.53
1.33
Kansas alone is expected to plant 950,000 more. North Dakota All Wheat
1.66
1.63
1.45 - 1.72
1.37
1.14
looks to add 800,000. With soybean area expanding in less- Source: USDA, Reuters
optimal growing areas of the U.S., we are likely to see lower average yields this year. Like with corn, soybean stocks on March 1 were up by double-digits (13%) compared to last year at 1.7
billion bushels. This was up 3% from pre-report expectations.

Wheat intentions of 46.1 million acres would be down 8% from 2016 and represent the lowest U.S. acreage since records
began in 1919. Wheat area looks to fall for the for the third consecutive time since almost 57 million acres were planted in
2014. 2017 winter wheat planted area, at 32.7 million acres, is down 9% from last year, while spring wheat area of 11.3 million
would be off 3%. March 1 wheat stocks came in 21% higher than a year ago but not far off analyst expectations.

Cotton offered another big surprise, with acreage anticipated up +2 million (21%) at 12.2 million (well north of expectations).
It is important to remember that there can be wide differences between planting intentions and actual acreage. In fact, the difference between intentions and actual plantings has averaged north of 1 million acres for both corn and soybeans over the past 20
years. A variety of factors including weather and changes in relative prices (the new crop soybean:corn price ratio at the time of
the USDA’s survey favored beans) will impact what farmers actually plant in the coming weeks. Traders will continue to assess this
batch of news but will focus attention in the next few weeks on how many acres of each crop actually get planted, how soon the
crops hit the ground, and early season growing conditions.
THE MOSAIC COMPANY | MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP | WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE
3/31/2017
1
Market Alert
Other News and Notes
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According to Dr. Michael Cordonnier, Brazilian soybean harvest
is nearing three-quarters complete, with few weather issues
slowing progress. With the big crop coming off fields (and a
boost in soybean acreage expected soon in the U.S.), local
bean prices have been under pressure. When combined with a
stronger Brazilian real versus last year, farmer selling of the
‘16/17 crop stands around 45% versus 65% a year ago. Even if
prices do not rise, farmers may be encouraged to sell to clear
bin space for a record Safrinha corn crop.
Agroconsult this week released the largest Brazil soybean crop
size estimate we’ve seen after a recent crop tour. The firm now
pegs the crop at 113 million tonnes, well north of the CONAB’s
108mmt forecast. If 113mmt comes to fruition, it would be nearly
11mmt higher than CONAB’s low-point estimate of 102mmt
made in December (which has since been ratcheted up). The
11 million tonne improvement equates to 404 million bushels or
roughly the size of U.S. carryout this past season.
Argentina’s soybean harvest has yet to take off, but early yields
are higher than expected given flooding in December. Around
half the crop is mature, while another ~40% is filling pods.
Around 8% of Argentine corn is in bins, and yields have generally been good.
According to Oil World, the top five soybean producing countries
in South America will harvest 180 million tonnes of beans this
year versus 165 million a year ago. The vast majority of the increase is attributable to Brazil.
China lifted its ban on imports of Brazilian meats a week after
imposing it. Several other countries have also restarted Brazilian purchases. Over the past few weeks, a bribery scandal involving multiple producers accused of paying inspectors to allow
tainted meat to be sold domestically and abroad has shaken
confidence in the Brazilian meat processing industry. Brazil recently became the top beef supplier to China.
Producers continue to expand the U.S. herd according to the
USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Overall inventory as of
March 1 was estimated at a quarterly record of 70.1 million
head, up 4% from last year. While the rate of expansion may
slow, producers look keen to expand further, with farrow intentions for Mar-May up 1% from 2016.
Mexico, the top buyer of U.S. corn, is considering offering dutyfree access to attract Brazilian and Argentine corn as an alternative to U.S. grain. Mexico currently imports nearly all of its corn
from the U.S (valued at +$2 billion), which enjoys no tariff as per
NAFTA. Without NAFTA, WTO rules allow a consolidated corn
tariff of 194%.
Annual Difference Between
Actual Planted and Perspective Acerage
From 2012 to 2015
Mil Acre
Difference
2.0
1.5
Source: USDA: NASS
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
13
14
15
16
13
All Wheat
Million
Acres
90
14
15
16
13 14
Corn
15
16
Soybeans
Actual & Prospective Planted Acres
Source: USDA: NASS
85
80
75
70
65
60
2013
2014
2015
Prospective Soybeans
Million
Acres
100
2016
2017
Planted Soybeans
Actual & Prospective Planted Acres
Source: USDA: NASS
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
THE MOSAIC COMPANY | MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP | WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE
2013
2014
Prospective Corn
2015
2016
2017
Planted Corn
3/31/2017
2
Weekly Fertilizer Update
Indian tenders add a bit of life to urea market; phosphate and potash steady
N
India filled most of the urea headlines this week on account of tender activity. IPL was only able to secure a third of its
desired volume, so a second tender by MMTC late this week will likely see higher values to entice Chinese and Iranian
suppliers. Prompt urea at NOLA see-sawed a bit early in the week and closed with an assessed range ~$10 lower at
$184-191/st. We would not be surprised to see these low prices spur spring demand. The Indian tender lifted Brazilian
prices to the mid-$220s/mt cfr from ~$220 late last week. Ammonia continues firm with a higher Tampa settlement for
April, a notable $400/mt fob sale by Ma’aden early in the week, and higher offers in the latest Indian tender (which was
subsequently scrapped).
P
Phosphate markets were again weak as Asia remains absent from the market (though big buying will be needed in Q2).
At NOLA, Mosaic bought +30,000st of imported and Mosaic-produced DAP at values as high as $321/st to supplement
its supplies, which pushed price assessments higher by the end of the week to the $317-319/st range (though the assessed range was noted at a wide $303-321). DAP Tampa was flat around $370s/mt fob at the midpoint. Delivered
MAP to Brazil is assessed down a couple dollars to $380-385/mt cfr on scant activity. Lack of an Indian and Pakistani
subsidy clarity (until Friday for India) kept each market quiet, while Chinese producers reportedly held firm in their export DAP expectations at $370/mt fob.
K
Potash markets were largely steady this week, though Brazil saw values tick a few dollars higher to $250-260/mt cfr on
limited granular availability. Expectations continue to suggest further price appreciation in the next two months. NOLA
barges were basically flat in the low to mid-$220s/st, and availability is seen relatively thin despite +125,000mt of imports arriving this week and next. Up-country demand should pick up in the near future given improved weather for
fieldwork. Chinese statistics confirm big import arrivals in February, further reducing pressure on the part of the Chinese to secure 2017 contracts.
Mosaic this week reported a prior
incident involving a skip at Esterhazy K2 that is expected to reduce output by 200-300,000
tonnes and impact Q2 sales.
April Tampa ammonia settled
up $10 to $340/mt due to
ongoing tight global supplies.
Extreme rainfall in Peru
caused Miski Mayo to declare
force majeure on rock export
commitments. There is no
timeline for the Bayovar mine
to begin producing again.
Given strong ammonia prices,
OPZ is considering restarting
its second merchant ammonia
line in April.
The dispute over ammonia
pipeline tariffs between Russian producer TogliattiAzot
and Ukrainian pipeline operator Transammiak was evident
in January statistics as exports of ammonia from
Ukraine (Yuzhny) in January
were down 84% from last
year, while Russian exports
(most of which head to
Ukraine) were down 55%.
PhosAgro reported a 10% increase in
phosphate product sales in 2016
(5.92mmt), while nitrogen sales were
up 2% (1.40mmt).
Friday marked the
commissioning of
the 1.4mmt Garlyk
potash facility in
Turkmenistan.
In Jan-Feb, China produced less total fertilizer
(on a nutrient basis)
than last year:
 N: 6.6mmt (-14%)
 P2O5: 3.0mmt (+5%)
 K2O: 0.9mmt (+17%)
India’s IPL was only able to secure
265,000mt in its urea tender that closed
last week (versus hopes to buy nearly
three times that) as China and Iran
stayed on the sidelines. Late this week,
MMTC issued a new tender closing in a
week, with assumed (i.e. needed) volume of around 1 million tonnes.
The DOF announced the long-awaited Indian
nutrient-based subsidy rates on Friday:
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THE MOSAIC COMPANY | MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS GROUP | WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE
DAP: INR 8,937 (nominal cut from
8,945)
MOP: INR 7,437 (-20% from 9,282)
3/31/2017
3