Land use models (LUC)
Land use models (LUC)
Table of Contents
Integrated models: Land use..........................................................................................................................1/1
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1 Introduction........................................................................................................................................1/3
2 Methodology......................................................................................................................................1/3
3 Process...............................................................................................................................................1/3
4 Review...............................................................................................................................................1/3
4.1 Evaluation results.....................................................................................................................1/3
4.2 Experiences..............................................................................................................................2/3
4.3 Combinations...........................................................................................................................2/3
4.4 Strengths and weaknesses........................................................................................................2/3
4.5 Further work.............................................................................................................................2/3
4.6 References of the tool...............................................................................................................2/3
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Integrated models: Land use
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Hermann Lotze−Campen (lotze−campen@pik−potsdam.de)
1 Introduction
Land use activities are closely related to societal, environmental, institutional, and economic processes alike.
The majority of the Land use change models (LUC) are therefore integrated and attempt to model the coupled
human−environment system by including sectors such as agriculture, forestry, transport, or energy. Some
LUC focus more on biophysical determinants of human land use activities, while others are more closely
linked to economic decision models that treat biophysical conditions as decision constraints. LUC have been
applied on very different spatial scales, ranging from single farms to global coverage.
2 Methodology
LUC comprise a wide variety of methodological approaches, which can be categorized in different ways.
They can be static or dynamic, spatial or non−spatial (i.e. exploring patterns of change vs. rates of change),
descriptive or prescriptive (i.e. exploring the future vs. optimisation), deductive or inductive (i.e. with model
parameters based on statistical correlations vs. process information), agent−based or pixel−based. Some
descriptive approaches derive spatial land use patterns using GIS tools. Spatial econometric models
determine causal effects of land use changes and their spatial distribution, based on spatially explicit
exogenous variables. Simulation models represent (parts of) the economic decision process as well as related
biophysical processes, in order to simulate the combined outcome. All these models can also be used, to a
certain extent, to make projections about future land use patterns. The choice of a model for a particular
purpose is largely dependent on the research or policy questions that need to be answered, while issues of data
availability might also play a role.
3 Process
First, the type of application has to be clearly defined, preferably via a consultation process with the relevant
end−users. The relevant economic and biophysical processes to be explicitly modelled have to be selected,
including the distinction between endogenous and exogenous processes. The level of spatial and temporal
coverage has to be determined. Most importantly, the model interfaces between these processes have to be
defined and developed. External conditions with regard to the natural and the socio−economic part of the
model have to be defined, in many cases scenarios have to be applied. A suitable application for the joint
modelling framework has to be defined and analysed.
4 Review
4.1 Evaluation results
Land use models include a wide variety of approaches. Aspects of land use change are at the core of many
society−nature interactions. Hence, the relevance of land use modelling has been recognised in recent years,
especially in the area of Integrated Assessment studies. LUC are highly integrative and can provide important
links to many other thematic issues, e.g. water, soil, carbon, energy, food, transport. Most LUC are well
prepared to provide consistent links between economic decision−making and biophysical processes and
constraints. However, many of these interfaces are not straightforward to simulate, and a number of
paradigmatic and methodological challenges arise while coupling socio−economic and biophysical process
models. Data availability for many LUC applications is still limited, but improving. LUC will remain to play a
key role in Sustainability Impact Assessment, but efforts for further development have to be made.
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Land use models (LUC)
4.2 Experiences
LUC have been used to unravel the driving factors and system dynamics as well as to explore future
developments of land use change in many parts of the world. As land use is determined by many divergent
factors, the representation and explanation of spatial land use patterns or rates of change in the past is a huge
task. Some LUC have also been applied for projections of future land use patterns, which is even more
difficult, especially in the long run. Future land use is influenced e.g. by climate change as well as economic
and cultural development, but at the same time land use itself has an impact on climate and the economy.
Important questions related to the endogeneity of important process arise. With regard to e.g. analysing the
EU biofuel directive land use models have to play an important role, as they represent the direct link between
energy demand and the spatial constraints to biofuel production.
4.3 Combinations
Land use models are crucial parts of many Integrated Assessment exercises. Land use models depend on
couplings with economic decision models, especially partial economic sector models and agent−based
models. But they also need the links to models of biogeochemical and climatic processes. GIS tools are
important for data management and representation of land use modelling activities. Land use models rely on a
number of external scenarios to reduce their complexity and/or replace a fully coupled modelling framework.
4.4 Strengths and weaknesses
Strengths:
• Highly integrative by definition
• Combine economic decision−making and social behaviour with biophysical processes and constraints
• Provide some of the closest links between nature and society
• Can in principle cover a wide variety of processes and aspects (soil, water, carbon, biodiversity,
economy)
• Focus on spatially and temporally explicit processes
Weaknesses:
• Some LUC have a rather complex structure
• Methodological and paradigmatic challenges
• Demanding task to link socio−economic and biophysical processes
• Highly demanding with respect to data and external scenarios
4.5 Further work
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4.6 References of the tool
SFARMOD (ACCELERATES project)
http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/accelerates/documents/LandUseModel.ppt
CLUE
http://www.cluemodel.nl
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Land use models (LUC)
AgLU
Sands, R. Leimbach, M. (2003): Modelling agriculture and land use in an integrated assessment framework.
Climatic Change, 56, 1/2, pp. 185−210.
MAgPIE/LPJ
http://www.iemss.org/iemss2004/pdf/integratedmodelling/lotzhowt.pdf
Overview of Agent−based approaches:
Parker, D.C., Berger, T., Manson, S.M. (2002): Agent−based models of land−use and land−cover change.
LUCC Report Series No. 6.
Overview of a wide range of LUC:
Verburg, P.H., Kok, K., Pontius Jr., R.G., Veldkamp, A. Modelling land use and land cover change. 2006.
Chapter 5 in: Lambin, E.F., Geist, H.J. (Eds.) ‘Land−Use and Land−Cover Change. Local Processes and
Global Impacts’, Global Change − The IGBP Series, Springer, Dordrecht.
Land Use and Cover Change: LUCC (http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC/lucc.html; 1995−2005)
Global Land Project: GLP (http://www.glp.colostate.edu/; launched in 2005)
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