Annual fleet
statistics 2015
ISBN: 2324-2116 (Online)
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FLEET AND TRAVEL NUMBERS .......................................................................... 2
2015 FLEET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS ............................................................................................................... 3
Accessing the graphs and information in this report ......................................................................................... 5
Describing the vehicle fleet ................................................................................................................................ 5
1. SETTING THE SCENE – THE VEHICLE FLEET IN CONTEXT................................................................... 7
How much is the fleet growing? ................................................................................................................. 7
What are the trends in travel? .................................................................................................................... 8
Light petrol fleet fuel economy ................................................................................................................. 11
Vehicle fleet CO2 emissions ..................................................................................................................... 11
Population increase and the light fleet ..................................................................................................... 12
2. COMPOSITION OF THE FLEET ................................................................................................................. 13
How does the age of the New Zealand fleet compare internationally? .................................................... 14
3. VEHICLE TRAVEL AND AGE ..................................................................................................................... 24
4. LIGHT FLEET ENGINE CAPACITY TRENDS ............................................................................................ 28
5. VEHICLES ENTERING AND EXITING THE FLEET ................................................................................... 33
6. VEHICLES ENTERING THE FLEET ........................................................................................................... 37
7. VEHICLES EXITING THE FLEET ............................................................................................................... 40
8. THE DIESEL FLEET, DIESEL AND PETROL TRAVEL, CNG/LPG/ ELECTRIC VEHICLES .................... 44
9. HOW FUEL-EFFICIENT IS THE LIGHT FLEET? ....................................................................................... 50
10. THE ENGINE SIZE AND AGE OF THE VEHICLES IN USE .................................................................... 57
11. ROAD FREIGHT........................................................................................................................................ 58
APPENDIX A: COMPARABILITY WITH OTHER PUBLISHED DATA ............................................................ 59
APPENDIX B: VEHICLES IN THE FLEET ...................................................................................................... 61
Disclaimer:
All reasonable endeavours are made to ensure the accuracy of the information in this report. However, the information is
provided without warranties of any kind including accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for any particular purpose.
The Ministry of Transport excludes liability for any loss, damage or expense, direct or indirect, and however caused,
whether through negligence or otherwise, resulting from any person or organisation’s use of, or reliance on, the information
provided in this report.
This document, and the information contained within it, can be copied, distributed, adapted and otherwise used provided
that:
• the Ministry of Transport is attributed as the source of the material
• the material is not misrepresented or distorted through selective use of the material
• images contained in the material are not copied
Enquires relating to this data may be directed to the Ministry of Transport, PO Box 3175, Wellington, or by email on
[email protected]
For more information about vehicles and travel check out the research section of the Ministry of Transport website
1
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FLEET AND TRAVEL NUMBERS
Every fleet and travel estimate in this report from the year 2000 onwards has been reworked, due to changes
in the Warrant of Fitness (WoF) system introduced in 2014.
The change to a 3 year WoF cycle for new light vehicles, and a one year cycle for older light vehicles
(manufactured from 2000) means WoF ceased to be usable for taking defunct vehicles out of the fleet. But
1
regarding vehicles as live until they lapse results in over estimation of travel, and a fleet with over-estimated
age and size.
The alternative that has been adopted is to take vehicles out of the fleet when their license expired, if it has
not been renewed within 6 months. This produces good travel estimates, but also results in larger live fleet
size estimates than have previously been published.
Appendix B discusses the alternative approaches that were considered, and compares their results.
Some vehicle statistics may have changed
significantly since the 2013 report due to the
new methodology. Data from this report should
not be compared with earlier reports.
1
Vehicles that are not relicenced, and have not have their licences cancelled, lapse out of the fleet one year
after their licence expired. They then have to go through the full registration process if they are ever to rejoin
the licenced fleet
2
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
2015 FLEET REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
Light vehicle registration and scrappage
Light vehicle registrations have increased markedly since 2013. New registrations in 2014 and 2015 have been at all-time record levels,
and used registrations have exceeded 120,000 for the first time since the financial crisis.
The high number of light vehicle registrations was accompanied by a low level of scrappage of light vehicles. As a result the light fleet
and its travel grew.
Light fleet size
Light vehicles per 1000 people
The light fleet grew significantly in 2013-2015, for the first
time since 2007. That was mainly due to the high levels of
registrations, but also low levels of scrappage.
Vehicle ownership rates started increasing significantly in the
second half of 2012, after dropping between 2007 and 2011.
Light vehicles per 1000 people are now at their highest ever
level.
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
780
760
740
720
700
680
660
640
620
600
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Light fleet growth rate
Travel growth
The rate of fleet growth in 2015 was even higher than the
very high growth in 2002-2005.
Light fleet growth and increased truck travel has resulted in
travel growth of 3.4% in 2014, after being almost static from
2005 to 2012.
5%
4%
3%
Billion km
40
2%
1%
0%
35
-1%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
30
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Travel growth per person
Travel per light vehicle
The kilometres travelled per person in light vehicles has been
increasing since 2013.
Annual travel per light vehicle has been declining, as light
vehicle numbers have increased at a greater rate than travel.
10000
14000
9000
13000
8000
12000
7000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
11000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Hybrid and electric light vehicles
Hybrid and electric vehicles offer good levels of fuel economy and fuel sustainability respectively. Their penetration into the
fleet is very limited with 973 electrics and 14,805 hybrids in the December 2015 fleet.
3
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light vehicle entry and exit
Light fleet average age
The number of vehicles leaving the fleet in 2015 was low.
These numbers will increase a little when a few more
vehicles are lapsed.
Vehicle registrations dropped after 2005, and as a result the
average age of the light vehicle stock started to increase. The
increase in age has been minimal since 2013 due to the large
number of vehicles entering the fleet.
15
300000
14
200000
13
12
100000
11
0
2001
2004
2007
2010
Entry
2013
10
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Exit
Light fleet age structure
Petrol prices
The large number of vehicle registrations in 2015 reduced the
proportion of the fleet that is 15 or more years old. However,
the absolute number of these older vehicles remains high and
many are approaching the end of their life.
Real regular petrol prices were lower in 2015. These prices
(cents/litre) have been converted to a December 2011 basis
using the consumer price index.
250
40%
200
30%
150
20%
100
10%
50
0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
15-19 years
2008
2010
2012
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2014
20+ years
CO2 emissions of light vehicles registered
Light petrol fleet fuel economy
The CO2 emissions (grams per km driven) of light vehicles
entering the fleet dropped between 2007 and 2012 but have
remained steady since then.
The fuel economy (litres per 100 km) of the light petrol fleet is
improving. This is established by comparing travel and the
petrol used, less estimated non-road use.
220
10.50
210
10.25
200
10.00
190
9.75
180
9.50
170
9.25
160
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
9.00
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Net migration
Travel purpose
One of the causes of the high level vehicle purchases in 2014
and 2015 is high net migration (shown below). Fewer New
Zealanders are leaving and immigration has increased.
The Household Travel Survey suggests a drop in the more
discretionary types of travel (shopping, social, recreational,
personal business) per driver after 2009. The new survey is
underway, and will give results for 15/16 eventually.
60,000
2500
km per driver per year
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
4
1500
500
03/04
05/06
07/08
To work
Social/recreational
09/10
11/12
13/14
Personal/shopping
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Accessing the graphs and information in this report
The graphs and information presented in this report, and the report itself, are available on the research tab of the Ministry
of Transport website http://www.transport.govt.nz/research. A series of brief quarterly fleet reports is also available there.
The Ministry has developed a set of Transport Indicators, which include further information on the vehicle fleet, including
some regional breakdowns. The Transport Indicators are available at the top left of the Ministry of Transport’s homepage
www.transport.govt.nz.
Describing the vehicle fleet
This report is based on data from the Motor Vehicle Register. The statistics presented in this publication have been
categorised differently to the traditional motor vehicle statistics produced by the Transport Registry Centre of the New
2
Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) . The objective was to produce a categorisation better suited to the estimation of fuel
use and levels of emissions.
There are two significant differences:
1) Vehicle categorisation
The vehicle categories used in this report are:
•
Light passenger
•
Light commercial
•
Truck
•
Bus
•
Motorcycle
NZTA categorisation
Fleet statistics categorisation
Passenger car/van
Light passenger
Goods vans/trucks/utilities
Light commercial if under 3500kg
Truck if over 3500kg
Buses
Light commercial if under 3500kg
Bus if over 3500kg
Motor caravans
Light commercial if under 3500kg
Truck if over 3500kg
Motorcycles
Motorcycles
Mopeds
Motorcycles
2) Vehicles leaving the fleet
The second difference is in judging when a vehicle has left the fleet. Unless a vehicle owner actively de-registers it, or
the vehicle has not been re-licensed for 12 months, then the practice of the New Zealand Transport Agency has been to
include those vehicles in fleet statistics. This over-estimates the size of the active fleet, as some vehicles will become
inactive well within the 12 months.
In this report, vehicles are considered to have left the fleet when their licence expires and is not renewed within 6 months
or they are cancelled, whichever comes first. This provides for better travel estimates
Appendix A and B expand on these approaches.
2
http://www.nzta.govt.nz/statistics/motor-vehicle-registration/index.html
5
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
3) Travel estimation
The vehicle travel estimates in this report are derived from the odometer readings recorded when vehicles undergo
inspection (warrant of fitness and certificate of fitness). These readings were first recorded in this way in 2000 and the
estimates derived from them become usable from 2001 onwards.
Although the current method of collecting data generally provides accurate data, a range of matters, discussed below,
mean that all figures presented are estimates and may be revised in subsequent years in light of more complete data.
The level of change is under one percent.
The travel estimates for a year are calculated in July/August the following year, and make use of 6 months of inspections
data after the end of that analysis period. This approach results in a high number of vehicles having an inspection after
the end of the analysis period, but it is still a compromise.
One reason that travel estimates vary from year to year is the new longer WoF cycles. For instance, consider a vehicle
that entered the fleet in August 2014. It will not be inspected for three years so average travel distances for similar
vehicles will be used for that vehicles until it is eventually inspected.
Other vehicles that have had a series of inspections, may not have an inspection in the six months after the analysis
period. That means their travel has to be projected to the end of the analysis period. This is more common now that
many vehicles are subject to annual WoF inspections.
Eventually these vehicles are likely to undergo more inspections, and the estimated travel for the analysis period can
firmed up. That is why there is a limited degree of change when estimates for previous years are republished.
It also means that similar overall annual travel estimates (for instance 39.9 billion and 40.1 billion) are best regarded as
the same, as that level of difference may disappear when extra inspections lead to better estimates.
6
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
1. SETTING THE SCENE – THE VEHICLE FLEET IN CONTEXT
How much is the fleet growing?
Figure 1.1 shows the light fleet (light passenger and light commercial vehicles) makes up over 90 percent of the total
vehicle fleet. The light fleet is made up of cars, vans, utes, four wheel drives, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), buses and
motor caravans (camper vans) under 3.5 tonnes. Figure 1.2 shows the light fleet grew by 19 percent between December
2000 and December 2006 but only by 4.4 percent from December 2006 to December 2012. Growth was 2.5% in 2013,
3.6% in 2014 and 4.9% in 2015.
The light fleet is not the fastest growing segment of the fleet. Figure 1.2 shows that bus and motorcycle/ mopeds have
increased by 100 percent since December 2000.
Figure 1.1 : Fleet composition
5,000,000
Vehicles
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2001
2003
Light passenger
2005
2007
2009
Light commercial
2011
MCycle
2013
Trucks
2015
Bus
Figure 1.2 : Fleet increase since 2000
120%
Percentage change
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2002
2004
Light passenger
Trucks
2006
2008
Light commercial
Bus
2010
2012
2014
MCycle
What part of the fleet travels the most?
Travel on New Zealand roads is dominated by the light fleet. Light passenger vehicles contributed 76 percent of road
travel in 2015 and light commercial vehicles a further 16 percent. Only eight percent of road travel was by other vehicles
(motorcycles, heavy trucks and buses).
Figure 1.3a : Travel in 2015
Truck
6%
Other
2%
Light
commercial
travel
16%
Light passenger
travel
76%
7
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Comparing Figures 1.2 and 1.3b shows that growth in travel and vehicle numbers has been similar, except for light
passenger vehicles. Their numbers have increased relatively more than their travel has.
Figure 1.3b: Travel growth
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Light passenger
Light commercial
Trucks
Buses
2011
2013
2015
Mcycle
Is the light fleet travel done by New Zealand-new or used imported vehicles?
Breaking the information in 1.3a down further shows that the travel by the light passenger and light commercial fleets is
3
significantly different. Light passenger travel is almost equally split between vehicles imported new into New Zealand,
and vehicles imported second-hand. Light commercial travel is dominated by New Zealand-new vehicles.
Also see Figures 8.2a and 8.2b, which provide a diesel/petrol breakdown.
Figure 1.3c : Travel in 2015, new/used import
Other
2%
Truck
6%
Light
commercial
used import
3%
Light passenger
NZ new
38%
Light
commercial NZ
new
14%
Light passenger
used import
37%
What are the trends in travel?
Total annual travel in New Zealand was increasing until 2007 (up 12.8 percent from 2001 to 2007), but between then and
2012 three periods of high oil prices and the economic downturn saw a slight fall in travel (down 2.1 percent from 2008 to
2012).
Travel was up 1.6 percent in 2013, 2.8% in 2014 and 3.4% in 2015. The major cause of the recent increase was fleet
growth. The light fleet size increased by 4.9% in 2015.
Figure 1.4 : Travel
Billion vehicle km
40
35
30
25
20
2001
2003
2005
2007
Light travel
2009
2011
2013
2015
Other travel
Period
3
Travel has been estimated using the odometer readings from the vehicle inspection system (warrant of fitness and certificate of
fitness).
8
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
4
Ownership per capita of light vehicles increased significantly between 2000 and 2005. The increase reflected a number
of factors, including the high value of the New Zealand dollar (which made vehicles cheaper), high employment and the
positive economic outlook that typified that time. Light vehicle ownership per capita declined between 2007 and 2012, but
has increased to record levels since then. It is now higher than the previous peak level of 2007. Also see Figure 1.5b.
These levels of ownership are among the highest in the world.
Vehicles per 1000 population
800
Figure 1.5a : Light fleet ownership per 1000
population
750
700
650
600
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Regional light vehicle ownership
Figure 1.5 shows the national trend in light vehicle ownership per capita, however there is substantial regional variation
(see Figure 1.5b). Three of the four regions with the highest ownership rates are in the South Island (Canterbury, NelsonMarlborough and Southland). Wellington and Auckland have low ownership rates, contributed to at least in part by the
availability of public transport
950
Figure 1.5b: North Island light vehicle ownership per 1000 people
Bay of
Plenty
Taranaki
900
850
Hawke's
Bay
Waikato
800
750
ManawatuWanganui
Auckland
700
650
Northland
600
Wellington
550
500
2001
950
Gisborne
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Figure 1.5c: South Island light vehicle ownership per 1000 people
900
850
Canterbury
800
Nelson Marl
Southland
750
700
West Coast
650
Otago
600
NZ
550
500
2001
4
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Population data obtained from the Statistics New Zealand website www.stats.govt.nz.
9
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The increased vehicle ownership rate was accompanied by increased travel per capita until 2005. Light travel per capita
(and fleet travel) dropped in response to the fuel price surges in 2006, rose slightly in 2007 and continued to drop until
2012. It was up in 2013, 2014 and 2015 due to the large number of vehicles added to the fleet. Figure 1.7 shows that
travel per vehicle continued to drop, otherwise the travel increase would have been far more.
Figure 1.6 : Light fleet travel per capita
Annual km
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Although New Zealand has high levels of vehicle ownership (see Figure 1.5) this does not translate proportionately into
high rates of travel. The amount of travel per light vehicle has declined in every year since 2001 (with the exception of
2009) which is why travel has not increased in line with vehicle numbers.
Part of the reason for the decline in travel per light vehicle was the increase in vehicles per capita from 2000 to 2005 (see
Figures 1.5 and 1.6) and again more recently. The significant fleet growth in 2013 and 2014 was not matched by travel
growth, hence the decline in travel per vehicle shown in Figure 1.7.
14,000
Figure 1.7 : Light fleet average annual travel per
vehicle
Annual km per vehicle
13,500
13,000
12,500
12,000
11,500
11,000
10,500
2001
2003
2005
2007
10
2009
2011
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light petrol fleet fuel economy
Figure 1.9 shows that real world light vehicle petrol economy only improved slightly between 2006 and 2011, despite the
entry of more fuel efficient vehicles into the fleet (also see Section 9). It improved by 5% between 2011 and 2015.
The economy of the light petrol fleet has been estimated by comparing the travel of the light petrol fleet with petrol
deliveries, less estimated other uses of petrol.
The resulting rates are indicative of what happens on New Zealand roads in New Zealand driving conditions. These
values are higher than the vehicle fuel test cycle values shown in Section 9, which are based on European and Japanese
regulatory test cycles. There is evidence that real world fuel economy is worse than the manufacturers laboratory test
5
values, and the gap between them is widening .
The fuel that has been removed from the calculation is:
•
fuel used on-road by other parts of the fleet (motorcycles, heavy goods and buses)
•
fuel used off-road (boats and jet skis, lawnmowers, circuit racing, rallying, speedway, off-road motorcycling and
6
agricultural quad bikes), which is estimated as 3.7-4.7 percent of petrol deliveries
The bars on the chart in Figure 1.9 show the petrol economy estimates, which are based on the minimum non-light fleet
estimate (4.7 percent of petrol) and maximum non-light fleet estimate (5.7 percent of petrol).
The petrol estimates used are the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) “observed” values, which
MBIE collates from fuel company reporting.
Figure 1.9 : Light petrol fleet fuel economy
Minimum and maximum estimates
Litres per 100 km of travel
10.50
10.25
10.00
9.75
9.50
9.25
9.00
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Vehicle fleet CO2 emissions
Vehicles produce CO2 in direct proportion to the amount of fuel used. Modern vehicles are typically engineered to reduce
their harmful emissions, and sometimes this is confused with their CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions are purely a product of
the fuel consumed, and are not affected by any controls a vehicle has to reduce harmful emissions (such as fine
particulates, NOx, carbon monoxide, volatile organics and hydrocarbons).
Figure 1.10 : 2014 CO2 emissions
Heavy fleet
21.5%
Motorcycle
0.5%
Light passenger
fleet
64.8%
Light
commercial
fleet
15.7%
Source : Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model
5
http://www.theicct.org/laboratory-road and http://www.intechopen.com/download/get/type/pdfs/id/41021
6
Detailed in the accompanying data spreadsheet, see the research tab at www.transport.govt.nz.
11
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Population increase and the light fleet
The light fleet growth in the last three years has mirrored population growth. Population growth has
increased substantially now that net migration is positive. In 2011/12 more people left New Zealand than
arrived, but since then arrivals have out numbered departures.
Figure 11.1a shows the recent correlation between population and light fleet growth.
Figure 11b shows that the turn around in net migration since 2013/14 is due both to a reduction in New
Zealanders leaving and an increase in non-New Zealanders arriving.
Figure 1.11a : Net migration and light fleet growth
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
GFC and recovery
-25,000
Net migration
Natural population growth
Light fleet growth
Figure 11b : Net migration and population growth
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
-25,000
-50,000
-75,000
-100,000
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
New Zealanders arriving
New Zealanders leaving
Non-New Zealanders arriving
Non-New Zealanders leaving
Trip purpose
Why might travel per capita have been dropping (see Figure 1.6)? Figure 1.12 is derived from the Ministry of Transport’s
Household Travel Survey. It suggests a drop in the more discretionary types of travel. Driver travel to work (km per driver
per year) has remained unchanged whereas shopping, social, recreational and personal business annual driver travel
distance has dropped since 2009. The new survey will eventually be used for reporting on 2015/16.
Figure 1.12 : Trip purpose
km per driver per year
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
03/04
To work
05/06
07/08
09/10
Personal/shopping
12
11/12
13/14
Social/recreational
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
2. COMPOSITION OF THE FLEET
New Zealand new and used imported vehicles
Used imported vehicles make up a large proportion of the light vehicle fleet. Figure 2.1 shows their share reached almost
50 percent in 2006, before dropping back to 46%.
Figure 2.2 shows the used import share of the bus and truck fleet is also dropping. The used imported segment of the
bus and truck fleets was growing faster than the used imported segment of the light fleet. This growth has ceased since
the 2007 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule effectively prevented the import of older used diesel vehicles. There have also
been increased sales of new buses since 2007 (see Figure 5.1d).
Figure 2.1 : Light fleet composition
3,500,000
Total light new
Total light used import
3,000,000
Vehicles
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Figure 2.2 : Fleet used import percentage
Percentage of vehicles
50%
Light used %
Truck used %
Bus used %
40%
30%
20%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Average vehicle age
The average age of the light fleet (14.2 years) and the truck fleet (17.6 years) have been increasing in recent years. This
is not isolated to New Zealand and one possible influence is improved mechanical reliability, leading to vehicles lasting
longer.
Figure 2.3 : Fleet average age
18
17
Light fleet average age
Truck fleet average age
Bus fleet average age
Age in years
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
2000
2002
2004
2006
13
2008
2010
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The average age of the vehicles in the light fleet is high by international standards (see Figure 1.8). Figure 2.4 shows
that the average age of the used imported vehicles in the fleet is increasing and that the average age of the NZ new light
vehicles in the fleet is remaining about the same. The aging of the large block of mid 1990s vehicle shown in Figure 2.5a
drives this trend.
Figure 2.4a : Light fleet average age
Light passenger NZ new
Light passenger used import
Light commercial NZ New
Light commercial used import
Age in years
17
14
11
8
5
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
How does the age of the New Zealand fleet compare internationally?
This comparison has been confined to countries with high levels of motorisation, and with similar patterns of
development to New Zealand. The United Kingdom has not been included as its motorisation level is comparatively low.
New Zealand has a comparatively old fleet compared to other developed countries. Also see Figures 2.3 and 2.4.
Figure 2.4b : Average fleet age
NZ light 2015
2010
2006
2002
Australia 2015
2014
2012
2010
2005
Canada 2011
2009
2005
USA 2014
2012
2010
2002 Cars
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Average vehicle age (years)
Source : USA Polk, Canada Derosiers and Automotive Industries Association, Australia Bureau of Statistics
14
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light fleet year of manufacture
The light vehicle fleet age mix includes a significant number of used imports manufactured in the mid 1990s.
7
The 1996 year of manufacture peak in the New Zealand fleet is in part a consequence of the Frontal Impact Standard ,
which had the effect of restricting used car imports to those vehicles manufactured during or after 1996 (and some older
vehicles that met the standard).
As these mid-1990s vehicles age, we expect a significant effect on the age of the fleet. The actual effect will depend on
future vehicle import and scrappage patterns (also see Figures 2.5b, 2.11a- 2.11b, 2.12a-2.12d and Table 2).
We are now seeing a second used import peak from 2005, which is partly caused by the requirement for used vehicles to
meet a 2005 standard.
200,000
Figure 2.5a : Light fleet vehicle year of manufacture Dec
2015
Light passenger NZ new
Vehicles
160,000
Light passenger used import
Light commercial NZ new
120,000
Light commercial used import
80,000
40,000
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
0
Year of manufacture
Figure 2.5b shows the relative numbers and ages of the vehicles in the light fleet. Mid-1990s vehicles were once the
largest single block, but they have been overtaken by 2004-04 and 2005-09 vehicles.
Figure 2.5b : Light fleet composition Dec 2015
1,000,000
Used light
New light
Vehicles
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Pre
1985
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
20052009
20102014
20152019
Period of Manufacture
Tables 1 and 1a provide a cumulative view of the age structure of the December 2015 light fleet.
Table 1 December 2015 light fleet age structure
Light vehicle age
7
Share
Upto 1 year old
3.7%
Upto 2 years old
7.2%
Upto 3 years old
10.4%
Upto 4 years old
13.3%
Upto 6 years old
18.5%
Upto 8 years old
24.7%
Upto 10 years old
34.8%
Upto 15 years old
59.1%
Upto 20 years old
80.3%
http://www.nzta.govt.nz/resources/rules/frontal-impact-2001-index.html
15
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Table 1a December 2015 light fleet age structure
Year of
manufacture
Vehicles
Cumulative
vehicles
Cumulative
share
2015
129424
129424
3.7%
2014
123934
253358
7.2%
2013
112836
366194
10.4%
2012
103782
469976
13.3%
2011
89208
559184
15.9%
2010
92160
651344
18.5%
2009
86907
738251
20.9%
2008
131925
870176
24.7%
2007
162364
1032540
29.3%
2006
193352
1225892
34.8%
2005
221509
1447401
41.1%
2004
212317
1659718
47.1%
2003
138676
1798394
51.0%
2002
144465
1942859
55.1%
2001
141766
2084625
59.1%
2000
136411
2221036
63.0%
1999
127818
2348854
66.6%
1998
136926
2485780
70.5%
1997
160035
2645815
75.1%
1996
183337
2829152
80.3%
1995
119892
2949044
83.7%
1994
101317
3050361
86.5%
1993
1992
70853
3121214
3187269
88.6%
90.4%
1991
66055
52566
3239835
91.9%
1990
48514
3288349
93.3%
1989
33192
3321541
94.2%
94.8%
95.2%
1988
20531
3342072
1987
14806
3356878
1986
11743
3368621
95.6%
1985
10101
3378722
95.9%
1984
8177
3386899
96.1%
1983
5940
3392839
96.3%
1982
5749
3398588
96.4%
1981
5239
3403827
96.6%
-1980
120715
3524542
100.0%
16
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
There is a significant difference between the make-up of the light passenger and light commercial fleets. Light
commercial vehicles are typically relatively young New Zealand-new vehicles, whereas the passenger fleet has a far
higher proportion of older used imports.
600,000
500,000
Figure 2.5c : Light passenger fleet composition
Dec 2015
Light passenger new
Light passenger used
Vehicles
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Pre
1985
120,000
19851989
19901994
1995200020051999
2004
2009
Period of manufacture
20102014
20152019
Figure 2.5d : Light commercial fleet composition
Dec 2015
Light commercial new
100,000
Light commercial used
Vehicles
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Pre 1985
19851989
1990199520001994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
20052009
20102014
20152019
Motorcycle and moped year of manufacture
The motorcycle and moped fleet grew rapidly from 2004 to 2008 (see Figure 1.2). The age structure shown in Figure
2.6a shows that registrations peaked in 2008, and resurged from 2013 onwards. Used imports only make up a limited
share of these registrations. Also see Figure 2.6b.
15,000
Figure 2.6a : Motorcycle year of manufacture Dec
2015
Motorcycle NZ new
Number of Vehicles
Motorcycle used
10,000
5,000
0
Year of manufacture
17
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Motorcycles and mopeds have typically been purchased new in recent years, although there is a higher proportion of
used imports among the older bikes.
Figure 2.6b : Motorcycle fleet composition Dec
2015
40,000
Motorcycle new
Motorcycle used
Vehicles
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Pre 1985
19851989
19901994
1995200020051999
2004
2009
Period of manufacture
20102014
20152019
Truck year of manufacture
The truck age structure shows large numbers of 1990s used imports in that fleet, which is a characteristic of the light fleet
as well. Also see Figure 2.7b.
The peaks in used vehicle models that were made in the mid-1990s reflected the effective banning of these vehicles in
many Japanese cities for air quality reasons. This was achieved by a retrospective requirement for vehicles to meet more
recent emission standards. Many owners chose to export their vehicles rather than fit aftermarket emission controls.
Imports of used diesel trucks fell after 2005 (see Figure 5.1c). Truck registrations have increased significantly since the
low point in 2009.
Figure 2.7a : Truck year of manufacture Dec 2015
7,500
Truck NZ new
Number of Vehicles
Truck used
5,000
2,500
0
Year of manufacture
Figure 2.7b : Truck fleet composition Dec 2015
20,000
Truck NZ new
Truck used
Vehicles
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Pre 1985
19851989
1990199520001994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
18
20052009
20102014
20152019
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Bus year of manufacture
The bus fleet has a different age profile to the truck fleet. It has a larger proportion of recent NZ new vehicles.
Figure 2.8a : Bus year of manufacture Dec 2015
750
Bus NZ new
Number of Vehicles
Bus used
500
250
0
Year of manufacture
Figure 2.8b : Bus fleet composition Dec 2015
1,500
Bus NZ new
Bus used
Vehicles
1,000
500
0
Pre 1985
19851989
19901994
1995200020051999
2004
2009
Period of manufacture
20102014
20152019
Heavy fleet gross vehicle mass
The used imported vehicles in the heavy fleet are concentrated in the small to medium mass range.
Figure 2.9 : Heavy fleet mass Dec 2015
30,000
NZ New Buses
Used Import Buses
NZ New Trucks
Used Import Trucks
25,000
Vehicles
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Gross Vehicle Mass (kg)
19
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light fleet age structure
Figures 2.10a and 2.10b show how the age structure of the light fleet has changed since 2000. In 2000, 23.8 percent of
the light fleet was 15 or more years old, but by 2015 this had increased to 40.9 percent, down from a peak of 42.3% in
2013.
Vehicle replacement volumes dropped significantly in 2008-2011 and the effect can be seen in the levelling off of the light
fleet size (see Figure 2.10a) until the increase in vehicle registrations in 2012.
The light fleet size increase from 2013 was partially due to a drop in the number of vehicles leaving the fleet (see Figures
5.1a and 7.2c), but the increasing age of the used import light fleet (see Figure 2.4) means that the current low level of
scrappage can not continue indefinitely.
3,500,000
Figure 2.10a : Light fleet age structure
3,000,000
Vehicles
2,500,000
20+ years
2,000,000
15-19 years
1,500,000
10-14 years
1,000,000
5-9 years
500,000
0-4 years
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Fleet year
Figure 2.10b : Light fleet age structure
100%
90%
80%
70%
20+ years
60%
15-19 years
50%
40%
10-14 years
30%
5-9 years
20%
0-4 years
10%
0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet year
20
2010
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
1990s vehicles in the light vehicle fleet
As discussed in section 2.5, the New Zealand light vehicle fleet has a disproportionate number of vehicles built in the
mid-1990s in it. These older vehicles tend to have lower levels of crash worthiness (protecting their occupants in a crash)
and higher levels of harmful emissions than vehicles built more recently, so there is interest in how quickly they are
leaving the fleet. This section provides more detailed information on vehicles built in the 1990s.
Figure 2.11a shows that the 1990s vehicles peaked at 1.8 million in the 2006 fleet, and had dropped by 41% to 1.07
million by December 2015.
Figure 2.11a : 1990s light vehicles in the 2000-2015
fleets
1,800,000
1,600,000
1999
1,400,000
1998
1,200,000
1997
1996
1,000,000
1995
800,000
1994
600,000
1993
400,000
1992
200,000
1991
0
2000
1990
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet year
2010
2012
2014
Figure 2.11b shows the entry of large numbers of 1996 year of manufacture vehicles between 2000 and 2008, with
50,000 more of these in the fleet than any other model year. This remains the largest model year with 183,000 1996
vehicles still in the fleet in 2014. The next largest block from the 1990s are the 160,000 1997 vehicles.
The graph also shows the lower rate of scrappage of more recent model years (1998 and 1999), which is shown in
another way in Figure 2.11c.
300,000
Figure 2.11b : 1990s light vehicles in the 2000-2015
fleets
Year of
manufacture
1990
250,000
1991
200,000
1992
1993
150,000
1994
1995
100,000
1996
50,000
1997
0
1999
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006 2008
Fleet year
21
2010
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Table 2 shows the rates of entry and exit of 1990s vehicles in the 2001-2015 fleets. The darker green shaded cells show
when vehicle numbers were decreasing the most:
•
the average scrappage rate of all 1990s vehicles in 2015 was 6.9% ie 6.9% of those vehicles in the fleet at the
start of 2015 left during the year
•
the scrappage rate for 1990-1995 vehicles dropped below 10% in 2015.
•
large numbers of 1994-1997 vehicles will be in the fleet for some time (currently 566,000 vehicles, down from
607,000 a year ago or 7%)
TABLE 2 Change in 1990s vehicles in the fleet
Vehicle year
Fleet
year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Total
2001
891
7,308
23,323
15,589
29,401
14,636
15,023
4,440
2,829
530
113,970
2002
-3,483
1,030
7,205
11,386
15,978
31,558
23,395
20,918
5,485
4,304
117,776
2003
-6,686
-3,341
834
3,161
17,366
23,747
49,784
21,010
15,762
6,040
127,677
2004
-9,054
-6,188
-3,821
433
6,436
28,182
31,800
34,728
13,394
12,592
108,502
2005
-12,214
-9,078
-7,082
-3,530
1,891
11,421
41,032
23,399
23,386
9,087
78,312
2006
-14,726
-11,591
-10,161
-6,973
-4,361
2,426
13,008
29,465
16,357
15,417
28,861
2007
-15,998
-13,438
-12,684
-9,144
-7,839
-4,091
6,286
12,504
25,060
13,902
-5,442
2008
-16,708
-14,707
-14,572
-11,086
-10,118
-7,496
-4,492
-51
7,715
18,231
-53,284
2009
-13,863
-12,958
-13,677
-10,826
-10,581
-8,075
-7,840
-4,821
-1,596
3,298
-80,939
2010
-12,561
-12,738
-14,069
-11,423
-11,933
-9,749
-10,115
-6,685
-3,983
-2,109
-95,365
2011
-13,179
-13,973
-15,984
-13,694
-15,062
-13,189
-13,968
-9,731
-5,998
-3,582
-118,360
2012
-9,108
-10,011
-12,081
-10,392
-11,984
-10,805
-11,898
-8,249
-5,047
-3,606
-93,181
2013
-8,065
-9,058
-11,276
-10,540
-12,760
-12,194
-14,183
-10,062
-6,638
-4,668
-99,444
2014
-6,969
-8,230
-10,379
-10,035
-12,888
-13,214
-15,611
-12,030
-8,261
-6,006
-103,623
2015
-4,642
-5,429
-6,966
-6,794
-9,140
-10,014
-13,012
-10,360
-7,124
-5,511
-78,992
Scrappage rates: vehicle age and when the vehicle was manufactured
The information in Table 2 shows that the survivability of vehicles of a given age is higher if they were manufactured
more recently (ie the percentage scrapped is lower). While the 2008 global financial crisis may have influenced that,
scrappage rates have continued to drop after 2008 so improvement in mechanical longevity must also be part of that
picture.
For instance consider the scrappage rates for 18 year old vehicles made in 1991-1997 (these vehicles reached 18 years
old after 2008). Figure 2.11c shows that the scrappage rates are lower for these vehicles if they were made more
recently. In the year that the vehicles manufactured in 1990 reached 18 years old 12.5% of them were scrapped,
whereas only 7.9% of the 1995 models were scrapped in the year they reached 18 years old.
Figure 2.11c : Vehicle scrappage - same age,
different year of manufacture
16%
Year of
manufacture
14%
1990
12%
1991
10%
1992
8%
1993
1994
6%
1995
4%
1996
2%
1997
0%
14
15
16
17
18
Vehicle age when scrapped
22
19
20
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 2.11d tracks the percentage change in the numbers of 1990-1999 vehicles in the 2001-2015 fleets. Positive
numbers on the vertical axis show the rate of increase in numbers of that year of manufacture, and negative numbers
show that the rate of decrease (scrappage).
Figure 2.11d : Vehicle scrappage
35%
Year of
manufacture
1990
1991
25%
1992
15%
1993
1994
5%
1995
1996
-5%
1997
-15%
2001
1998
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
1999
Fleet year
Diesel light fleet age distribution
The age of the light diesel fleet is related to the emissions controls in those vehicles, and their health impacts. See tab
2.13 in the accompanying spreadsheet for the age distribution of the light diesel fleet, and tab 9.11 for a breakdown of
the emissions standards the light fleet was built to.
23
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
3. VEHICLE TRAVEL AND AGE
The breakdown of travel is shown in Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1 : Fleet travel in 2015
10,000
Motorcycles
Millions of vehicle km
Buses
7,500
Trucks
Light fleet used import
5,000
Light fleet NZ new
2,500
0
Pre1980 19801984
1985- 1990- 1995- 20001989
1994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
20052009
20102014
20152019
Light passenger vehicle travel makes up the majority of travel. 29% of this travel is done by used imported vehicles
manufactured during the mid 1990s.
Figure 3.2a : Light passenger fleet travel in 2015
9,000
Used import light passenger
Millions of vehicle km
NZ new light passenger
6,000
3,000
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
1990- 1995- 20001994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
20052009
20102014
20152019
New Zealand-new light vehicles do more travel overall than used imported light vehicles – new and used light passenger
vehicles do about the same amount of overall travel but new light commercials do far more than used light commercials
(see Figures 3.1, 3.2b and 3.2c).
Figure 3.2b : Light fleet travel 2015
Light
commercial
used import
3%
Light passenger
NZ new
42%
Light passenger
used import
40%
Light
commercial NZ
new
15%
24
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light commercial fleet travel is different from light passenger fleet travel. A high proportion of travel is done by recently
purchased New Zealand-new vehicles (also see Figure 2.5c).
Figure 3.2c : Light commercial fleet travel in 2015
3,000
Millions of vehicle km
2,500
Used import light commercial
NZ new light commercial
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
1990- 1995- 20001994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
20052009
20102014
20152019
Over half of all the travel by trucks (63%) is by New Zealand-new vehicles built after 2005, although they make up a
much smaller part of the fleet than that (30%, see Figure 2.7b).
Figure 3.2d : Truck travel in 2015
1,000
Millions of vehicle km
Used truck
NZ new truck
500
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
1990- 1995- 20001994
1999
2004
Period of manufacture
20052009
20102014
20152019
As with trucks, buses built after 2005 do the most travel (60%) although they only make up 34% of the bus fleet.
Figure 3.2e : Bus travel in 2015
100
Millions of vehicle km
Used bus
NZ new bus
50
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
Period of manufacture
25
20052009
20102014
20152019
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Average vehicle travel by vehicle age
There is a clear relationship between vehicle age and travel - older vehicles are not driven as far each year. The patterns
of used and new light vehicle travel also vary with vehicle age.
There is a difference in travel patterns between light commercial and light passenger vehicles. Light commercial vehicles
are driven further each year than passenger vehicles until they reach an age of about 15 years, after which the annual
distances are similar.
The travel by vehicles manufactured in 2015 appears low, but that is because on average they were only in the fleet for 6
months.
Figure 3.4a : Travel per light vehicle in 2015
km per vehicle
20,000
15,000
Travel
Travel
Travel
Travel
per
per
per
per
new light passenger
used light passenger
new light commercial
used light commercial
10,000
5,000
0
Pre1980
1985-1989
1995-1999
2005-2009
2015-2019
Period of manufacture
On average diesel vehicles travel further than petrol vehicles of the same age. Many light diesel vehicles are light
commercials (utes and vans) though diesel SUVs are classed as light passenger in this report.
20,000
Figure 3.4b : Light petrol and diesel travel per
vehicle in 2015
Travel per light diesel vehicle
Travel per light petrol vehicle
km per vehicle
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Pre1980
1985-1989
1995-1999
Period of manufacture
26
2005-2009
2015-2019
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figures 3.4c and 3.4d show that buses typically travel further than trucks per vehicle per year and both travel more than
light vehicles. Total travel by heavy vehicles is much less than that by light vehicles (see Figures 3.4c, 3.4d and 3.4e) as
they are only a small part of the fleet (see Figure 1.1).
The travel by used import trucks is different as they tend to be smaller vehicles (see Figure 2.9) which are not usually
used for long distance freight.
The travel by vehicles manufactured in 2015 is low, as on average they were only in the fleet for 6 months.
Figure 3.4c : Truck travel per vehicle in 2015
70,000
Travel per NZ new truck
km per vehicle
60,000
Travel per used import
truck
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
20052009
20102014
20152019
Period of manufacture
Figure 3.4d : Bus travel per vehicle in 2015
70,000
60,000
Travel per NZ new bus
km per vehicle
Travel per used import bus
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Pre1980
1985-1989
1995-1999
2005-2009
2015-2019
Period of manufacture
Light commercial vehicles are typically driven further than light passenger vehicles early in their life. This effect starts to
diminish as the vehicles age, and has disappeared by the time they are 20 years old. There has been little change in this
pattern since 2001.
30,000
Figure 3.5 Light fleet average travel in 2015, by
vehicle age
Light commercial
Annual km per vehicle
Light fleet
Light passenger
20,000
10,000
0
Year of manufacture
27
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
4. LIGHT FLEET ENGINE CAPACITY TRENDS
These graphs show the average engine capacity for the light vehicles in the fleet from January 2000 through to
December 2015. The average engine capacity of the fleet grew between 2000 and 2011. Since then NZ new light
vehicles average engine size has levelled off and used imports have dropped a little.
The New Zealand-new component of the fleet has a significantly larger average engine capacity than the used imported
component.
The trends in diesel and petrol engine capacities are quite different, as shown in Figure 4.1b. The capacity of New
Zealand-new petrol vehicles within the fleet showed the greatest level of increase. It also shows that the average diesel
engine is significantly larger than the average petrol engine.
New Zealand did not record fuel consumption data on the vehicle register before 2005. Therefore, engine capacity was
previously used as a proxy for fuel consumption, but it does not take improvements in engine efficiency into account, or
other factors such as vehicle weight gain.
Figure 4.1a : Light fleet average engine capacity
Average CC
2,500
2,250
2,000
All light fleet
Used import light fleet
NZ new light fleet
1,750
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Fleet date
3,000
Figure 4.1b : Light fleet average engine capacity
Average CC
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
1,750
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Light petrol fleet
Used petrol light fleet
NZ new petrol light fleet
Light fleet average
2010
2012
2014
Light diesel fleet
Used diesel light fleet
NZ New diesel light fleet
28
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The mix of engine sizes in the light fleet has been changing. The smallest class of vehicles (under 1350cc) declined in
number before picking up in 2014, while there has been significant growth in the 2000–2999cc class.
Figure 4.2a : Light fleet engine size trend
3,500,000
3,000,000
Vehicles
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
4000+
1600-1999
2008
2010
3000-3999
1350-1599
2012
2014
2000-2999
< 1350
The engine-size class that showed the greatest rate of growth is 3000–3999cc, but the number of these vehicles is
relatively low. The 2000-2999cc class has shown the most growth in terms of numbers of vehicles.
Figure 4.2b : Light fleet engine size trend, relative
to Jan 2000
185%
Change
155%
125%
95%
65%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
< 1350
2000-2999
2010
1350-1599
3000-3999
29
2012
2014
1600-1999
4000+
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light fleet travel by engine capacity and age
Smaller-engined light passenger vehicles do less annual travel than other vehicles, and vehicles with the largest engines
travel more than other vehicles, especially early in their life.
Figure 4.3a : Light passenger average travel 2015
Annual km/vehicle
30,000
<1350
1350-1599cc
1600-1999cc
2000-2999cc
3000cc+
20,000
10,000
0
Year of manufacture
The pattern for light commercial vehicles is similar to that for light passenger vehicles, although the amount of travel is far
higher. Again, the vehicles with larger engines do the most travel per vehicle early in their life. Very small light
commercials are uncommon, which accounts for the erratic nature of their line in Figure 4.3b.
Figure 4.3b : Light commercial average travel 2015
Annual km/vehicle
30,000
20,000
<1350
1350-1599cc
1600-1999cc
2000-2999cc
3000cc+
10,000
0
Year of manufacture
30
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light fleet travel trend by engine capacity
Table 3 provides a different view of travel and engine capacity. The proportion of travel done by vehicles with engine
sizes of 2000cc or more grew significantly between 2001 and 2008, but has only changed slightly since then.
8
Table 3 Light Fleet travel (millions VKT )
8
Period
Engines under
2000cc
Engines 2000+
cc
Travel by vehicles
2000+ cc
2000+ cc
vehicles
2001
20,619
13,147
39%
35%
2002
20,853
13,998
40%
36%
2003
20,887
14,996
42%
38%
2004
20,702
16,157
44%
39%
2005
20,211
16,927
46%
41%
2006
19,698
17,381
47%
42%
2007
19,527
18,094
48%
43%
2008
18,960
18,117
49%
43%
2009
18,885
18,315
49%
44%
2010
18,824
18,308
49%
44%
2011
18,574
18,123
49%
45%
2012
18,547
18,235
50%
45%
2013
18,807
18,523
50%
45%
2014
19,275
19,059
50%
45%
2015
19,977
19,680
50%
45%
Vehicle Kilometres Travelled.
31
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Motorcycle and moped fleet composition
Under 60 cc machines showed strong growth from 2005 to 2008, but have been static since then. Much of the growth is
in over 600 cc machines have been increasing since the early 2000s.
Figure 4.4 : Motorcycle fleet composition
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
2002
2004
upto 60cc
2006
2008
61-125cc
2010
2012
2014
126-600 cc
601cc +
Motorcycle and moped fleet average engine capacity
The growth in the under 60cc sector resulted in the average engine capacity staying much the same from 2004 and
2009. Subsequent sales of machines with large engines has increased the average engine capacity to 630 cc (see
Figure 4.4 for a detailed breakdown of the fleet composition).
Figure 4.5 : Average motorcycle/moped fleet
engine size
650
625
600
CC
575
550
525
500
475
450
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet year
32
2010
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
5. VEHICLES ENTERING AND EXITING THE FLEET
Figures 5.1a to 5.1e show the mix of vehicles that entered and exited the fleet between 2001 and 2015. The bars above
zero on the vertical axis show vehicles entering the fleet and the bars below zero show vehicles that exited.
The recent light passenger fleet size changes have been:
•
•
•
in 2013 registrations were up to 187,000 and the light passenger fleet grew by 58,000 vehicles
in 2014 registrations were up to 225,000 and the light passenger fleet grew by 91,000 vehicles
in 2015 registrations were up to 243,000 and the light passenger fleet grew by 134,000 vehicles
More used imports are now leaving the light passenger fleet than New Zealand-new vehicles. This reflects the vehicle
mix that entered the fleet during the 1990s. Light passenger vehicle registrations reflect economic cycles, though
scrappage is less predictable.
The 2015 scrappage shown in these graphs will increase a little as a few more vehicles lapse.
Figure 5.1a : Light passenger entry and exit
Entered
200,000
100,000
Exited
0
-100,000
-200,000
2001
2003
2005
Petrol NZ new in
Diesel used in
2009
2007
Petrol used in
Petrol NZ new out
2011
2013
2015
Diesel NZ new in
Petrol used out
The light commercial fleet grew slightly in 2010 and 2011, then by increasing numbers each following year. It was up by
18,700 in 2013, 26,000 in 2014 and 31,700 in 2015.
Figure 5.1b : Light commercial entry and exit
45,000
Entered
35,000
25,000
15,000
Exited
5,000
-5,000
-15,000
-25,000
2001
2003
Petrol NZ new in
Diesel used in
2005
2007
2009
Petrol used in
Petrol NZ new out
2011
2013
2015
Diesel NZ new in
Petrol used out
Comparing the light commercial fleet with the light passenger fleet highlights that there are very few diesel-powered
vehicles entering the passenger fleet. A high proportion of the new vehicles entering the light commercial fleet are diesel
powered. Businesses are again buying significant numbers of vehicles, after the drop that started in 2009.
33
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 2.9 showed that used truck imports are typically lighter weight vehicles. Most of the used truck imports shown in
Figure 5.1c have a gross vehicle mass under 10 tonnes (also see Figure 2.9). Used truck registrations remain at low
levels but have picked up a little as vehicles become available that meet our emission requirements. While purchase
patterns were influenced by the rule on used truck entry and the global financial crisis, there was not the same change in
disposal patterns, which have remained relatively constant.
Truck registrations in 2015 were up on every year since 2009, and low scrappage resulted in fleet growth of 4,300
vehicles.
Figure 5.1c : Truck entry and exit
12,000
Entered
9,000
6,000
3,000
Exited
0
-3,000
-6,000
2001
2003
2005
Petrol NZ new in
Diesel used in
2007
2009
Petrol used in
Petrol NZ new out
2011
2013
2015
Diesel NZ new in
Petrol used out
The majority of the buses entering the fleet until 2008 were relatively old used imports. The Vehicle Exhaust Emissions
Rule effectively precluded these imports in January 2008. Bus purchase and scrapping patterns do not follow the same
patterns as trucks. This may reflect that purchases are linked to government and council funding, which tends to be
constant.
Figure 5.1d : Bus entry and exit
Entered
750
500
Exited
250
0
-250
2001
2003
Petrol NZ new in
Petrol NZ new out
2005
2007
Petrol used in
Petrol used out
2009
2011
Diesel NZ new in
Diesel NZ new out
2013
2015
Diesel used in
Diesel used out
The numbers of motorcycles and mopeds registered grew significantly between 2004 and 2008, and began increasing
again in 2012 (see Figure 1.2).
Figure 5.1e : Motorcycle entry and exit
Entered
24,000
18,000
12,000
Exited
6,000
0
-6,000
-12,000
2001
2003
Petrol used out
2005
2007
Petrol NZ new out
34
2009
2011
Petrol used in
2013
2015
Petrol NZ new in
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Year of manufacture of vehicles entering and leaving the fleet
Figures 5.2a to 5.2d show the year of manufacture of vehicles that entered (above the axis) and left the New Zealand
light fleet (below the axis) in 2015. Virtually all of the new vehicles were manufactured in 2015. Figure 5.2a shows that
more used light vehicles manufactured in 2005 entered the light fleet than any other age. Also see Figures 2.4, 2.5a and
6.2b.
Used vehicles leave the fleet slightly earlier than New Zealand-new vehicles.
Figure 5.2a : Light vehicles entering or leaving
the fleet in 2015
140,000
Light used in
Light new in
Light used out
Light new out
Entered
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Exited
0
-20,000
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Year of manufacture
The numbers of near-new motorcycles leaving the fleet reflects the risk and severity of motorcycle crashes.
Entered
10,000
Figure 5.2b : Motorcycles entering or leaving the
fleet in 2015
MC used in
MC new in
MC used out
MC new out
8,000
6,000
4,000
Exited
2,000
0
-2,000
to 1980
1984
1988
1992
2000
2004
1996
Year of manufacture
2008
2012
Very few used imports entered the truck fleet in 2015. Trucks leave the fleet much later than light vehicles.
Figure 5.2c : Trucks entering or leaving the fleet in
2015
Entered
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
Truck used in
Truck new in
Truck used out
Truck new out
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Exited
1,000
500
0
-500
to 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Year of manufacture
35
2004
2008
2012
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Extremely few used bus imports entered the fleet in 2014. Few buses leave the fleet, which may be influenced by
vehicles eventually being converted into mobile homes.
Entered
Figure 5.2d : Buses entering or leaving the fleet in
2015
350
Bus used in
Bus new in
Bus used out
Bus new out
300
250
200
150
100
Exited
50
0
-50
-100
to 1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Year of manufacture
2008
2012
Engine size of vehicles entering and leaving the light fleet
The detailed breakdowns in Figure 5.3 show the patterns engine sizes for light fleet entry and exit in 2015.
Figure 5.3a : Petrol vehicles entering/leaving the
light 2015 fleet
Petrol new in
Petrol used in
Petrol new out
Petrol used out
4000+
< 4000
CC
< 3000
< 2000
< 1600
< 1350
0
10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000
Vehicles
Figure 5.3b : Diesel vehicles entering/leaving the
light 2015 fleet
4000+
Diesel new in
Diesel used in
< 4000
Diesel new out
Diesel used out
CC
< 3000
< 2000
< 1600
< 1350
0
10,000
20,000
Vehicles
36
30,000
40,000
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
6. VEHICLES ENTERING THE FLEET
Registrations of new light vehicles continued to grow and were at their highest levels ever in 2015.
Figure 6.1 : Vehicles entering the light fleet
300,000
Used vehicles
New vehicles
250,000
Vehicles
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
The average age of used imported vehicles entering the light fleet was increasing until 2008. The 2007 Vehicle Exhaust
Emissions Rule took effect in January 2008, and required vehicles to be built to newer standards. That resulted in the
average age dropping in 2009. By 2011 though, the average age of used imports entering the fleet was at an all time
high. That was because older vehicles could be sourced for import, as the age range of the vehicles compliant with the
rule broadened. The oldest used vehicles that could be imported in 2008 were typically manufactured in 2001, and it was
still possible to import those vehicles until December 2011.
The next step of the Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule took effect in January 2012, requiring vehicles to be built to 2005
standards. The effect can be seen in the reduced average age on used import registrations in 2012, which continued in
2013. The average age rose in 2014 and 2015 reflecting that older vehicles are compliant again.
Figure 6.2a : Average age of light used imports
entering the fleet
10
Average age
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fleet year
2010
2012
2014
A breakdown of the 2015 used light vehicle imports by age and fuel type shows they were overwhelmingly petrol
powered.
Figure 6.2b : Used imports entering the light fleet in
2015, by year of manufacture and fuel type
40000
Number of vehicles
35000
Diesel
30000
Petrol
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Pre 2000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011-15
Year of manufacture
The average age of used trucks and buses entering the fleet has dropped substantially following the introduction of the
2007 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Rule in January 2008.
37
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 6.2c : Average age of heavy used imports
entering the fleet
Bus
Truck
12
Average age
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Figure 6.3 shows the average engine capacity of petrol vehicles entering the light fleet was increasing until 2004. The
average engine capacity of the light fleet continued to increase for some years after 2004 as the vehicles entering the
fleet had larger engines than those exiting (see Figure 4.1a).
Diesel vehicles have been increasing in engine size since 2010.
Average engine capacity (CC)
3000
Figure 6.3 : Average engine size of vehicles
entering the light fleet
Petrol
Diesel
2500
2000
1500
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Used import versus New Zealand-new engine capacity mix
Figures 6.4a and 6.4b show the engine size mix of the used imports entering the light fleet is different to that of New
Zealand-new vehicles. There are relatively more smaller-engined used imported vehicles than New Zealand-new. Figure
5.3 provides a more detailed breakdown. It shows both entry and exit, and splits petrol and diesel.
Figure 6.4a : Engine size of NZ new vehicles
entering the light fleet
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
NZ new < 1350
NZ new 1350-1599
NZ new 1600-1999
NZ new 2000-2999
NZ new 3000-3999
NZ new 4000+
38
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
180,000
Figure 6.4b : Engine size of used imports entering
the light fleet
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Used import < 1350
Used import 1600-1999
Used import 3000-3999
2010
2012
2014
Used import 1350-1599
Used import 2000-2999
Used import 4000+
Much of the growth in new motorcycle registrations until 2008 was in machines under 60cc. Registrations have been
increasing since 2012.
Figure 6.5a : New Zealand new motorcycles
entering the fleet
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
<= 60 cc
<= 100 cc
<= 250 cc
<= 600 cc
<= 1000 cc
> 1000 cc
2014
Used motorcycle imports increased from 2005 to 2008, and again from 2012, but to a far lesser degree than new
motorcycles (see above).
Figure 6.5b : Used motorcycles entering the fleet
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
<= 60 cc
<= 100 cc
<= 250 cc
<= 600 cc
<= 1000 cc
> 1000 cc
39
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
7. VEHICLES EXITING THE FLEET
Until 2005 more New Zealand-new vehicles left the fleet than used imported vehicles, but Figure 7.1a shows that this has
changed now that used imports make up about half the light fleet. The increase also reflects that used imports tended to
leave the fleet earlier than NZ-new, although this is changing (see Figure 7.2a).
Figure 7.1a : Vehicles leaving the light fleet
Used imports
NZ new
175,000
150,000
Vehicles
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
25,000
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year
Figure 7.1b : Vehicles leaving the heavy fleet
3,500
3,000
Vehicles
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2003
2005
NZ new trucks
2011
2009
Year
Used trucks NZ new buses
2007
2013
2015
Used buses
Used imports left the light fleet at an average age of 19.2 years in 2015, and New Zealand-new vehicles averaged 18.5
years old (see Figure 7.2a). The age at scrappage of used imports is still increasing.
This apparent drop in scrappage age in 2014 may be due to the new method of determining which vehicles have left the
fleet ( see Appendix B). The 2015 result may change if vehicles that appear to have been scrapped in 2015 are
relicensed between 7 and 12 months after their licence expired, or a few more vehicles are lapsed.
Figure 7.2a : Average age when leaving the light
fleet
20
18
Age
16
14
12
10
2001
2003
2005
2007
NZ new scrappage age
2009
2011
Used import scrappage age
40
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The average age of light diesel vehicles when scrapped has risen as the light diesel fleet has changed from being very
commercially orientated (vans and utes) to including large numbers of SUVs and some diesel cars. The distance covered
in the lifetime of light diesel vehicles exceeds that of petrol vehicles on average, even though they are scrapped earlier
(see Figure 7.3a).
Figure 7.2b : Average age when leaving the light
fleet - petrol vs diesel
20
Age
18
16
14
12
10
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Diesel scrappage age
Petrol scrappage age
There has been a change in the pattern of used imports leaving the fleet. Figure 7.2c shows how the volume of used
imports increased until the economic downturn began in 2009. The average age of the used exports scrapped has risen
every year.
Many of the used imports manufactured in the mid 1990’s will be reaching the end of their lives in the next 5 years, and
the numbers leaving the fleet will increase. Figures 2.5a, 2.5b, 2.11 and 2.12 show the age structure of the light fleet.
Figure 7.2c : Used imports leaving the fleet vs
average age at that time
Average age leaving the fleet
20
Left the fleet in 2015
18
2008
16
Left the fleet in
2001
14
12
20,000
40,000
2005
60,000
80,000
100,000
Number leaving the fleet
While not many buses leave the fleet (see Figure 5.1d) the average age when they do is high (see Figure 5.2d). This has
dropped in recent years to be similar to that of trucks.
Figure 7.2d : Average age when leaving the heavy
fleet
Age
28
22
16
10
2001
2003
2005
2007
NZ new trucks
NZ new buses
41
2009
2011
Used trucks
Used buses
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
How far have vehicles travelled before they leave the fleet?
The final warrant of fitness or certificate of fitness odometer reading provides a good estimate of lifetime travel. Figures
7.3a, 7.3b and 7.3c show that the average lifetime distance travelled has typically been increasing.
The lesser lifetime distance covered by used imports may reflect their smaller average engine size (see Figure 4.1a).
Figure 7.3e shows that larger-engined vehicles typically cover a greater lifetime distance.
Figure 7.3a : Final odometer reading of vehicles
leaving the light fleet
250,000
Diesel
Petrol
Average km
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year
250,000
Figure 7.3b : Final odometer reading of vehicles
leaving the light fleet
NZ new
Used import
Average km
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year
Figure 7.3c : Final odometer reading of vehicles
leaving the light fleet
Light private
250,000
Light commercial
Average km
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Year
42
2011
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
An examination of the engine sizes of vehicles leaving the fleet shows that the average size has been increasing. This
may partly explain why the average lifetime distance has been increasing.
Figure 7.3d : Average engine size of vehicles
leaving the light fleet
Engine capcity (cc)
2,500
Light private
Light commercial
2,000
1,500
1,000
2001
2003
2007
2005
2009
Year
2011
2013
Figures 7.3e and 7.3f show that larger-engined vehicles travel further in their lifetime, which, combined with 7.3d,
explains in part why the fleet average lifetime distance is increasing.
Figures 7.3e and 7.3f also show that lifetime distance has been increasing for vehicles of all engine sizes. When these
two effects are combined, we get the lifetime distance increases seen in 7.3a, 7.3b and 7.3c.
Figure 7.3e : Final odometer reading of light
passenger vehicles leaving the light fleet
250,000
Average km
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
<1350cc
2003
2010
2004
2011
2005
2012
<1600cc
2006
2013
<2000cc
2007
2014
2008
2015
<3000cc
>=3000cc
2009
Figure 7.3f : Final odometer reading of light
commercial vehicles leaving the light fleet
250,000
Average km
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
<1350cc
2001
2006
2002
2007
<1600cc
2003
2008
<2000cc
2004
2009
<3000cc
>=3000cc
2005
2010
Although the average lifetime travel has been rising for most CC bands, it has remained remarkably flat for engine sizes
greater than 3,000cc. It is not known why travel has not grown in this class, but there are over 60,000 of these vehicles
so low numbers are not the explanation.
SCRAPPAGE CURVES
The accompanying spreadsheet (available from the research tab on the Ministry of Transport website:
www.transport.govt.nz) includes scrappage curves for 2015. The curves show the percentage of vehicles of each age
that were in the fleet at the start of January 2015, but gone from the fleet by the end of December 2015. They are shown
in table 7.4 in the website spreadsheet.
43
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
8. THE DIESEL FLEET, DIESEL AND PETROL TRAVEL, CNG/LPG/
ELECTRIC VEHICLES
The proportion of diesel vehicles in the fleet
The proportion of the light fleet, which is diesel powered, grew from 11.7 percent in 2000 to 17.4 percent in 2015.
The majority of light diesel vehicles are commercial vehicles (also see Table 4 and Figures 8.2a, 8.2b and 8.3.)
Figure 8.1a : Diesel vehicles within the light fleet
Used light diesel
NZ new light diesel
Diesel percentage
15%
10%
5%
0%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Virtually all trucks are diesel powered. The petrol trucks in Figure 8.1b are either very old, or large
American SUVs that weigh more than 3500 kg.
Figure 8.1b : Diesel vehicles within the truck fleet
Diesel truck used
Diesel truck new
Petrol truck used
Petrol truck new
160,000
140,000
Vehicles
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Figure 8.1c : Diesel vehicles within the bus fleet
10,000
Diesel bus used
Diesel bus new
8,000
Petrol bus used
Vehicles
Petrol bus new
6,000
Electric bus
4,000
2,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
44
2010
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Diesel vehicles in the light fleet and their travel
Table 4 shows the segment of the light fleet that is diesel powered and the percentage of light fleet travel by diesel
vehicles. Figures 8.2a and 8.2b breaks down the light fleet and its travel. The vehicle percentages are based on the
vehicles that recorded travel during 2015. They were not necessarily still in the fleet at the end of the year.
Table 4 Light diesel vehicles in 2015
Diesel vehicles
Diesel travel
2015 Light fleet overall
17.1%
22.4%
2015 Light passenger fleet
8.3%
10.2%
2015 Light commercial fleet
69.9%
78.5%
Figure 8.2a : Light fleet makeup by fuel type 2015
Light
commercial
diesel vehicles
9.9%
Light
commercial
petrol vehicles
4.3%
Light passenger
diesel vehicles
7.1%
Light passenger
petrol vehicles
78.7%
Figure 8.2b : Light fleet travel by fuel type 2014
Light
commercial
diesel travel
14.0%
Light
commercial
petrol travel
3.8%
Light passenger
diesel travel
8.4%
Light passenger
petrol travel
73.8%
Figure 8.2c shows that light diesel vehicles continue to travel further on average each year than light petrol vehicles
and that travel per vehicle is dropping.
Figure 8.2c Annual travel per light vehicle
18,000
Travel per vehicle
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
2001
2003
2005
2007
Petrol
45
2009
Diesel
2011
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 8.3 shows that the proportion of the light fleet travel by diesel vehicles built in the 1990’s, when the harmful
9
emissions standards were typically far inferior to recent standards, is now relatively low .
Figure 8.3 : Light petrol and diesel travel in 2015
10,000
Millions of km
8,000
Light petrol
Light diesel
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Pre1980 19801984
19851989
19901994
19951999
20002004
20052009
20102014
20152019
Year of manufacture
9
The PM (Particulate Matter) column in Table 1 in http://www.dieselnet.com/standards/eu/hd.php shows how successive
standards have tightened emission requirements.
46
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Vehicle fuel types
Primary and secondary fuels
When vehicles are first registered in New Zealand they are required to indicate a primary fuel type. For the vast
majority, this is petrol or diesel, but it can also be CNG, LPG, electricity or “other”. The record can also indicate if
there is a secondary fuel. This is often CNG or LPG for dual fuel vehicles. Unfortunately the secondary fuel field is
not always filled in correctly and some of the data presented in these tables is clearly incorrect or absent. It is
extremely unlikely that there are vehicles that operate on both petrol and diesel, for example. We are also aware
that the field is not always updated when vehicles are converted to run on LPG or CNG, or if a conversion to
another fuel is subsequently removed.
Table 5a shows the primary and alternative fuels recorded on the register.
Table 5a Fuel types of vehicles in the fleet at Dec 2015
No
alternative
fuel
Fuel
With an alternative fuel
Petrol
Diesel
Electricity
Total
CNG
LPG
Light vehicles
Petrol
2,903,003
-
246
1,115
2,404
3,736
2,910,504
Diesel
606,181
5,101
-
5
247
128
611,662
Electricity
889
51
14
-
-
-
954
CNG
28
1
-
-
-
-
29
LPG
1,362
13
1
-
3
-
1,379
-
-
-
-
1
138
5,166
261
1,120
2,654
3,865
3,524,666
Unknown
137
Total
3,511,600
Motorcycles and mopeds
Petrol
159,849
-
1
2
25
6
159,883
Diesel
5
-
-
-
-
-
5
262
-
-
-
-
-
262
CNG
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
LPG
2
-
-
-
-
-
2
Electricity
Unknown
Total
49
-
-
-
-
-
49
160,168
-
1
2
25
6
160,202
-
1
-
-
7
179
Buses
Petrol
171
Diesel
9,503
-
-
-
6
2
9,511
Electricity
68
-
2
-
-
3
73
CNG
23
1
-
-
-
-
24
LPG
24
-
1
-
-
-
25
Unknown
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Total
9,789
1
4
-
6
12
9,812
Trucks
Total
Petrol
2,874
-
2
-
10
138
3,082
Diesel
133,466
71
-
2
27
18
129,023
Electricity
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
CNG
44
-
-
-
-
-
46
LPG
142
5
-
-
4
-
157
Unknown
7
-
-
-
-
-
7
Total
136,534
76
2
2
41
156
132,316
47
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Fuel
No
alternative
fuel
With an alternative fuel
Petrol
Diesel
Electricity
Total
CNG
LPG
Other vehicle types
Total
Petrol
1,376
-
-
-
2
12
1,390
Diesel
24,614
2
-
-
1
-
24,617
Electricity
11
-
-
-
-
-
11
CNG
7
-
-
-
-
-
7
LPG
63
-
-
-
-
-
63
Unknown
47
-
-
-
-
-
47
Total
26,118
2
-
-
3
12
26,135
Table 5b Hybrids and electric light vehicles in the 2000-2014 light fleets
NZ new
electrics
Used imported
electrics
NZ new
hybrids
Used imported
hybrids
Plug in hybrids
2000
37
10
7
3
0
0
2001
34
13
7
7
0
0
2002
32
13
10
25
0
0
2003
31
15
29
44
0
0
2004
30
17
246
107
0
0
2005
31
16
554
313
0
0
2006
30
17
1046
695
0
0
2007
28
16
1648
1075
0
0
2008
29
19
2307
1422
0
0
2009
31
18
2890
1576
0
0
2010
40
18
3812
1767
3
0
2011
53
19
5017
1903
3
0
2012
72
20
6492
2103
8
0
0
Fleet year
Total alt fuel
2013
81
41
7765
2557
14
2014
121
109
8764
3387
227
2
2015
187
302
9804
4972
454
17
48
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 8.4a shows that the number of light vehicles primarily fuelled by CNG, LPG or electricity is very low. Figure
8.4b shows that the number of light vehicles with an alternative fuel of CNG or LPG has dropped substantially over
the last decade. The vehicles with an alternative fuel of electricity are typically hybrids, but not all hybrids are
recorded in the vehicle register in this way.
Figure 8.4a : Primary light vehicle fuel
1,400
1,200
Vehicles
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
CNG
2008
LPG
2010
2012
Electricity
2014
Figure 8.4b : Alternative light vehicle fuel
12,000
Vehciles
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000
2002
2004
CNG
2006
2008
LPG
49
2010
Electricity
2012
2014
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
9. HOW FUEL-EFFICIENT IS THE LIGHT FLEET?
Issues in the test results
This section reports the fuel consumption figures that manufacturers get for their vehicles when they put them
through standardised drive cycles in laboratory conditions.
While there will always be a difference between laboratory and real world results, they should be readily
comparable over time. There is good evidence that the gap between laboratory results and real world fuel economy
has been widening. A 2015 vehicle with a certain real world fuel economy is likely to have a lower laboratory result
than a 2010 vehicle with the same real world economy.
Figure 9.0a from a recent European study shows the divergence between real world economy and laboratory test
results. Real-world economy was 7% higher than test results in 2001 but the gap increased to around 25% by
2012.
Figure 9.0a Real world emissions vs laboratory test results
Source : http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LabToRoad_20130527.pdf
10
A similar comparison has been done in New Zealand between the actual fuel consumption of light petrol
corporate fleet vehicles and their laboratory test results. The result shown in Figure 9.0b is similar to the result
shown above. Real world fuel economy is diverging from the test values for the same vehicle. It is
Rreal-world vs test values
possible that changes in congestion levels or driving behaviour may have also contributed to the
divergence.
25%
Figure 9.0b : Divergence between real world and test
petrol economy
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Year of manufacture
The implication is that the test value results for the newer vehicles shown in this section are becoming increasingly
11
optimistic. Figure 9.4 shows that the average laboratory value for new light petrol vehicles was 192 g CO2/km for
vehicles entering the fleet in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 167 g CO2/km in the fourth quarter of 2014. That
suggests an improvement of 13% in fuel economy.
10
“Real-world fuel efficiency of light vehicles in New Zealand” Wang, McGlinchy, Badger, Wheaton, Ministry of Transport.
This paper will be presented at the Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF) in October 2015
11
Vehicles using petrol or diesel produce CO2 in direct proportion to the amount of fuel used.
50
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
However, based on the result above their real world economy may have been about 219 g CO2/km in 2010 and
207 g CO2/km in 2014, or an improvement of 5.5%.
The analysis does show that real world economy has been improving for vehicles with a given engine size and fuel
type, but not as quickly as the laboratory results suggest.
The fuel economy of the light vehicles that have entered the fleet in the last two years has been static in terms of
laboratory test results (see graph 9.4). The implication is that their average real world economy may have
worsened.
All the graphs that follow in section 9 show laboratory test values, not real world values.
The CO2 emissions of new light vehicles entering the fleet
Figure 9.1a shows the reported CO2 emissions per kilometre of travel (g CO2/km) of New Zealand-new light
vehicles that entered the fleet from April 2005. The market share of the more fuel efficient petrol vehicles (up to
170g CO2/km) has been growing. This may be partly due to a move away from large-engine petrol vehicles to
diesel SUVs.
100%
Figure 9.1a : New light vehicle registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
90%
80%
No value
70%
>250 g/km
60%
<=250 g/km
50%
<=220 g/km
40%
<=200 g/km
30%
<=170 g/km
20%
<=150 g/km
10%
0%
2005
35,000
<=120 g/km
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year and quarter registered
2015
Figure 9.1b : New light vehicle registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
30,000
25,000
No value
20,000
>250 g/km
15,000
<=220 g/km
<=250 g/km
<=200 g/km
10,000
<=170 g/km
<=150 g/km
5,000
<=120 g/km
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year and quarter registered
The values shown are for vehicles tested using the European test methodology (cold start). A small number of new
vehicles are tested to the Japanese test standard (warm start). A cold start test generally returns a higher
consumption value than a warm start test for the same vehicle, and the Japanese test values have been converted
by way of the process detailed on page 52.
51
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The CO2 emissions of used light petrol vehicles entering the fleet
12
Figure 9.2a is an estimation of the carbon dioxide emissions of light used imported vehicles.
The lower consumption segments (under 170 g/km) have lost market share since 2012.
Figure 9.2a : Used import light petrol registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
100%
90%
80%
Over 250 g/km
70%
221-250 g/km
60%
201-220 g/km
50%
171-200 g/km
40%
151-170 g/km
30%
20%
121-150 g/km
10%
upto 120 g/km
0%
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year and quarter registered
45,000
Figure 9.2b : Used import light petrol registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
40,000
Over 250 g/km
35,000
221-250 g/km
30,000
201-220 g/km
25,000
20,000
171-200 g/km
15,000
151-170 g/km
10,000
121-150 g/km
5,000
upto 120 g/km
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year and quarter registered
12
The estimation process:
1.
Convert the Japanese test values to European test values, using the Ministry’s Japanese warm cycle to Euro cold cycle
test converter (unpublished).
2.
Split each quarter’s new registrations into engine capacity bands.
3.
Use the vehicles with known consumption values, in each engine capacity band, to establish a CO2 mix for that engine
capacity band and quarter.
4.
Apply the CO2 mix for each engine capacity band to the vehicles without a value for that quarter.
52
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
The CO2 emissions of used diesel vehicles entering the fleet
Only 5 percent of used import diesel vehicles had known fuel consumption test results, therefore it is not possible
to analyse their fuel economy (see Table 6 in the Fleet Statistics spreadsheet).
Typically, used diesels will have higher fuel consumption than the used petrol vehicles, as diesel engines are larger
(see figure 6.3).
The number of used diesels imported is now very low (see Figure 5.3) and their omission from the figures below
will not affect the result.
The quarterly fleet report provides more detailed analysis of trends in CO2 emissions.
The CO2 emissions of petrol vehicles and new diesel vehicles entering the light fleet
Figure 9.3a shows the CO2 emissions of the new and used petrol vehicles combined.
New Zealand-new vehicles with Japanese test cycle values have been included, after their values have been
13
converted to the equivalent European test value. The fuel economy of used imports without fuel economy values
has been estimated using the methodology described on page 52.
Figure 9.3a : New and used light petrol
CO2 emissions per km driven
100%
90%
New no value
80%
Petrol >250 g/km
70%
Petrol <=250 g/km
60%
Petrol <=220 g/km
50%
Petrol <=200 g/km
40%
Petrol <=170 g/km
30%
Petrol <=150 g/km
20%
Petrol <=120 g/km
10%
0%
2005
70,000
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year and quarter registered
2015
Figure 9.3b : New and used light petrol
CO2 emissions per km driven
New no value
60,000
Petrol >250 g/km
50,000
Petrol <=250 g/km
40,000
Petrol <=220 g/km
30,000
Petrol <=200 g/km
20,000
Petrol <=170 g/km
Petrol <=150 g/km
10,000
Petrol <=120 g/km
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year and quarter registered
13
See page 52 for a description of the CO2 emissions estimation process.
53
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Figure 9.3c shows the CO2 emissions of the new diesel vehicles. Used diesel vehicles could not be analysed as too
few of them have known fuel consumption values.
100%
Figure 9.3c : New light diesel registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
90%
New no value
80%
Diesel >250 g/km
70%
60%
Diesel <=250 g/km
50%
Diesel <=220 g/km
40%
Diesel <=200 g/km
30%
Diesel <=170 g/km
20%
Diesel <=150 g/km
10%
0%
2005
Diesel <=120 g/km
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Year and quarter registered
14,000
Figure 9.3d : New light diesel registrations
CO2 emissions per km driven
12,000
New no value
Diesel >250 g/km
10,000
Diesel <=250 g/km
8,000
Diesel <=220 g/km
6,000
Diesel <=200 g/km
Diesel <=170 g/km
4,000
Diesel <=150 g/km
2,000
Diesel <=120 g/km
0
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Year and quarter registered
54
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Average CO2 emissions of light vehicles entering the fleet
Figure 9.4 is a summary of the information presented in Figures 9.1, 9.2 and 9.3. It shows some response to the
14
increased fuel prices in 2006 , 2008, 2011-2014.
Note, however, that the used import fuel consumption data is not as reliable as the new vehicle data. The Ministry
of Transport has estimated values from the used petrol imports that have a fuel consumption test value, and the
Japanese test cycle values have also been converted to European test cycle values.
The used diesel imports are not included in the analysis, as too few of them have known fuel consumption. Used
diesels make up a very low fraction of used imports now.
Figure 9.4 shows that there was:
•
•
•
•
an improvement in fuel economy of light vehicles entering the fleet from 2005 to 2009
little improvement in 2010 and 2011
a marked drop from mid 2011 to the end of 2012 (also see Figure 9.6)
little change since then
Figure 9.4 is updated each quarter in the Quarterly Fleet Statistics. Fuel economy and CO2 g/km are in direct
proportion, and CO2 is used in Figure 9.4 so diesel and petrol vehicles can be combined neatly.
Figure 9.4 : Light vehicle registrations
Average CO2 emissions
250
NZ New Petrol
NZ New Diesel
Used Petrol
All
240
230
CO2 g/km
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
2005
2007
2011
2009
2013
Year and quarter registered
TECHNICAL NOTES
How CO2 per km is calculated
The fuel consumption test results recorded on the vehicle register have been converted from litres per 100km
(L/100km) to grams of CO2 per kilometre driven. This allows direct comparison of petrol and diesel vehicles, which
have different fuel consumption and CO2 emissions (diesel vehicles typically have lower fuel consumption than
their petrol equivalents, but there is more carbon in a litre of diesel compared with a litre of petrol). The conversions
that have been used are:
•
•
15
Diesel g CO2/km = 26.05 x diesel consumption (L/100km)
16
Petrol g CO2/per km = 22.961 x petrol consumption (L/100km)
The petrol factor is based on the carbon content of the regular/premium mix sold in New Zealand in 2005. Premium
petrol has a higher carbon content than regular petrol. Petrol CO2 differs slightly from year to year due to changes
in fuel properties, and the sales mix.
14
See Section 12.
Ministry of Economic Development, NZ Energy Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2006.
16
Ministry of Economic Development, NZ Energy Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990–2006.
15
55
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
How have these economy gains come about?
Figure 9.4 shows the fuel economy of light vehicles entering the fleet has improved from about 220g CO2/km in
2005 to 181g/km in 2015.
Figures 9.10a and 9.10b shows the economy trends within each engine cc band. The decreases have not been
particularly marked (apart from the two largest categories of petrol vehicles), which suggests that some of the fleet
CO2 reduction has been achieved by downsizing the engine purchased, or by purchasing diesels rather than the
largest petrol vehicles.
Figure 9.5a : Petrol economy trend by engine size
14
L/100 km
12
10
8
6
4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010 2011
Year registered
2012
3000-3999cc
1300-1599cc
4000+cc
1600-1999cc
2013
2014
2015
2000-2999cc
-1300cc
The economy trend for diesels with engine capacity under 1300cc varies as the sales of those vehicles are very
limited.
Figure 9.5b : Diesel economy trend by engine size
12
11
L/100 km
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010 2011
Year registered
2012
2013
2014
2015
4000+cc
3000-3999cc
2000-2999cc
1600-1999cc
1300-1599cc
-1300cc
There were no under 1300c diesels registered in 2011.
Harmful emissions standards of vehicles in the light fleet
The numbers of NZ new and used import light vehicles built to specific harmful exhaust emissions standards is
shown in Fleet Statistics spreadsheet tab 9.11. This information was first recorded on the vehicle register in early
2005, so it is not comprehensive. Since 2004 vehicles entering the NZ fleet have been required to be built to
recognised exhaust emissions standards. These relate to air quality and substances harmful to human health, and
are not related to CO2 emissions.
56
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
10. THE ENGINE SIZE AND AGE OF THE VEHICLES IN USE
The average vehicle age and engine capacity of the light fleet has already been detailed. But how does it compare
with the average vehicle that is actually travelling on the road?
The technique to establish this is to weight engine size and age by travel.
If the fleet consisted of a 1000cc car that did 5,000 km/year and a 2000cc van that did 12,000 km/year:
•
•
the average engine size of the fleet would be 1500cc = (1000+2000)/2.
the travel-weighted engine size would be 1706cc=(1000x5000 + 2000x12000) / (5000+12000)
Similarly, if the fleet consisted of a 10-year-old vehicle doing 4,000km/year, and a 4-year-old vehicle doing
10,000km/year:
•
•
the average fleet age would be 7 years = (4+10)/2.
the average travel-weighted fleet age would be 5.7 years = (10 x 4000 + 4 x 10000) / (4000 + 10000)
Using this technique, Figures 10.1 and 10.2 show that the average vehicle actually travelling is younger than the
average vehicle in the fleet, and that it has a larger engine capacity than the average vehicle in the fleet.
15
Figure 10.1 : Light fleet travel-weighted average
vehicle age
Mean age
Mean age, travel weighted
Vehicle age (years)
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
2001
2,500
2003
2007
2009
Fleet year
2011
2013
2015
Figure 10.2 : Light fleet travel-weighted average
engine size
2,400
Engine size (cc)
2005
Mean CC, travel weighted
Mean CC
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Fleet year
57
2011
2013
2015
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
11. ROAD FREIGHT
Originally our estimates of road tonne km were based on Road User Charges (RUC) sales. That approach was
17
negated by the changes to RUC in 2012 . A new approach has been developed using weights from the NZTA
WIMS (Weigh in Motion Sites) weighbridges combined with tare (unladen) weights from the vehicle register.
The increase in tonne-km from 2013 onwards (see Figure 11.2) relative to truck and trailer travel (see Figure 11.1),
shows that the heavier High Productivity Motor Vehicles (HPMV) are making an impact.
Figure 11.1 : Truck and trailer travel
4,500
4,000
Travel (millions of km)
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
RUC Truck km (millions)
2009
2011
2013
2015
RUC Trailer km (millions)
Figure 11.2 : Truck and trailer tonne km
28,000
24,000
Tonne km (millions)
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Acknowledgements
Kheang Chrun of the New Zealand Transport Agency, for advice on Motor Vehicle Register data
Stuart Badger and Iain McGlinchy of the Ministry of Transport
17
See http://www.transport.govt.nz/land/roadusercharges/roaduserchargeslegislationchanges/
58
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
APPENDIX A: COMPARABILITY WITH OTHER PUBLISHED DATA
The fleet statistics in this analysis are not directly comparable with data published by the Transport Registry Centre
of the NZTA. This analysis is based on a slightly different categorisation of the vehicle fleet and assessment of the
number of active vehicles.
The information in this publication has been derived from a data extract from the New Zealand Motor Vehicle
Register (MVR) which holds information on all active vehicles in New Zealand.
VEHICLE CATEGORISATION
18
The vehicle categorisation is the one used in the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model (VFEM) , rather than the vehicle
split traditionally found in statistics published annually by the New Zealand Transport Agency.
The major difference from the New Zealand Transport Agency statistics is that in this analysis, light vehicles (under
3.5 tonnes) have been categorised into light passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles. In the New Zealand
Transport Agency data, light commercial vehicles are included with trucks, but they may actually be cars, vans,
utes or SUVs. The New Zealand Transport Agency categorisation is therefore not as useful when projecting the
make-up of the fleet for the purposes of estimating fuel use or the level of emissions.
The objective of the Vehicle Fleet Emissions Model is to estimate the size and activity of the on-road fleet. For this
reason, vehicles exempt from licensing (typically those used off-road) and vehicles with restoration licences are
excluded from the analysis.
Table 9 Vehicle types
Fleet statistics types
Motor Vehicle Register
vehicle types
Mass
Light Passenger Fleet
Passenger car/van
Up to 3500 kg
Light Commercial fleet
Goods van/truck/utility
Motor caravan
Bus (*)
Up to 3500 kg
Bus
Bus
Over 3500 kg
Truck
Passenger car/van
Goods van/truck/utility
Motor caravan
Over 3500 kg
Motorcycles
Motorcycle
ATV
Moped
Miscellaneous (**)
Mobile machine
Special purpose vehicle
Tractor
Agricultural machine
(*) Light buses have been included in the light fleet as they have the same fuel use and emissions characteristics.
Physically they are vans and SUVs.
(**) A small number of vehicles are classified as ‘miscellaneous'. Many of these vehicles are exempt from licensing
and therefore not included in these analyses.
18
The VFEM is a computer model of the New Zealand vehicle fleet that is used to predict CO2 emissions and fuel use. Much of
the analysis in this report was carried out as part of ongoing work by the Ministry of Transport to improve the accuracy of the
VFEM.
59
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
VEHICLE CATEGORISATION VS MOTOR VEHICLE REGISTER VEHICLE BODY TYPE
The breakdown of vehicle categorisation by vehicle body type for the December 2014 fleet is shown in Table 10.
Table 10 Fleet statistics vehicle type derivation
Fleet Statistics category
Light passenger
vehicle
Light
commercial
vehicle
Articulated Truck
-
78
8,084
-
-
-
8,162
Cab And Chassis
Only
-
4,809
1,760
12
-
-
6,581
30,514
-
1
-
-
-
30,515
Motor Vehicle
Register Body Type
Convertible
Flat-Deck Truck
Heavy
goods
vehicle
Motorcycle
Bus
Miscellaneous
Total
-
16,285
18,534
-
-
-
34,819
Hatchback
775,257
-
-
-
-
-
775,257
Heavy Bus
-
17
322
-
-
-
339
Heavy Van
189
10,609
4,808
-
-
-
15,606
Light Van
39,827
113,025
244
-
-
-
153,096
Minibus
-
15,082
-
116
-
-
15,198
Mobile Machine
-
-
-
-
-
7,264
7,264
Motorcycle
590
-
-
-
151,596
-
152,186
Other
-
-
-
-
-
506
506
Other Truck
-
14,226
74,507
-
-
1,518
90,251
959,860
-
4
-
-
-
959,864
Self-Propelled
Caravan
-
12,914
23,236
-
-
-
36,150
Service Coach
-
89
-
9,516
-
-
9,605
Saloon
Sports Car
57,019
-
-
-
-
-
57,019
1,016,993
4,344
120
-
-
-
1,021,457
Tractor
-
-
-
-
-
14,439
14,439
Unknown
-
2
7
-
-
1
10
Utility
-
282,635
683
-
-
-
283,318
Total
2,880,249
474,115
132,310
9,644
151,596
23,728
3,671,642
Station Wagon
VEHICLE TRAVEL ESTIMATES
Vehicle travel estimates have been calculated on the basis of the difference between successive warrant of fitness
or certificate of fitness odometer readings. The resulting fleet travel estimate has been validated against three
large-scale traffic counting exercises conducted by the former Land Transport Safety Authority (LTSA).
60
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
APPENDIX B: VEHICLES IN THE FLEET
Background
Each year the Ministry produces a comprehensive set of vehicle fleet statistics; the New Zealand
19
Annual Vehicle Fleet Statistics. It is accompanied by less detailed Quarterly Fleet Reports .
Both publications report road travel, which is derived from the change of odometer readings between
Warrant of Fitness (WOF) and Certificate of Fitness (CoF) inspections.
The vehicles reported on are those that are licensed to be used on the road, so vehicles exempt from
licensing (not used on the roads) or not currently licensed are excluded.
The key trends are fleet size, travel, road travel per vehicle and road travel per person. These trends
underlie understanding of transport and transport infrastructure demand.
It important to determine when vehicles leave the fleet
Central to the fleet statistics are accurate measures of the total fleet size, fleet age and total distance
travelled. There is good information on vehicles entering the fleet, but it is less certain when vehicles
leave the fleet.
Only around half the vehicles leaving the fleet are actively delicensed by their owners. Other vehicles
which have not been relicensed remain active on the vehicle register for 12 months, for administrative
reasons (henceforth the administrative approach). Most of those vehicles are not being used and if they
are regarded as live we will overestimate the number of vehicles on the road.
More importantly we will also overestimate travel, as these vehicles will be assumed to travel the typical
distances that vehicle of their type and age do. Unlicensed vehicles cannot undergo WoF/CoF so there
will not be any odometer readings for them, hence the use of averages.
The Ministry’s approach has been to take vehicles out of the fleet (and travel estimation) when their
WoF/CoF was overdue by 6 months (the WoF-based approach). The WoF-based approach to removing
20
vehicles was chosen because it gave a good match with the traffic counting survey estimates .
However, the WoF-based approach is no longer viable. Changes to the WoF that took effect in 2014
mean much of the fleet is now on 3 year (10%) and 1 year (48%) WoF cycle rather than a 6 monthly
(42%) cycle.
21
Developing a new approach to determining when vehicles leave the fleet
Under the old WoF regime the vast majority of vehicles that were not actively deregistered would have
left the fleet because they failed their 6 monthly WoF test and the owner elected to scrap rather than
repair the vehicle. However, the growing number of vehicles on longer WoF cycles means using
overdue WoF as a guide to scrappage will overestimate the size of the fleet and distort the statistics.
This distortion will grow with time as more vehicles move to an annual WoF/CoF Cycle.
The Ministry has therefore needed to develop a new mechanism to provide estimates of the fleet size
and travel.
We have reviewed several options for determining when vehicles leave the fleet.
19
http://www.transport.govt.nz/research/newzealandvehiclefleetstatistics/
The survey points in the road travel graph are from a series of large scale traffic counting exercise conducted by the LTSA then MoT. A
sample frame was devised so that the counts done at those locations could provide a good national travel estimate and they are considered
to be robust estimates.
21
http://www.transport.govt.nz/land/vehiclelicensingreformconsultation/
20
61
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Adjust scrap dates to align vehicle removal more closely with the WoF approach
We know that there will be a relationship between when vehicles are removed using the administrative
approach, and when the WoF-based approach would have taken the vehicle out of the fleet. We
considered pushing the eventual administrative removal dates forward by a number of months to align
them with the old approach, but we are not confident that relationship will endure as more vehicles
move to one year WoF/CoF cycles.
This method would also involve waiting a year until lapsed status is definite, which would have delayed
reporting unreasonably. It was not considered further.
a)
Remove vehicles at end of licence, if not renewed within 90 days
If vehicles are not relicensed on time then two things can happen:
either they are not relicensed within 12 months and are removed from the fleet (by the lapsing
process)
or they are relicensed late. About 98% of these vehicles are renewed within 90 days of licence
expiry
One approach is to take vehicles out of the fleet on the day that its licence expires, if the licence is not
renewed within 90 days. Using a 90 day period would allow fleet statistics to be calculated three months
after the end of the period being reported.
Unfortunately, the approach does not produce good results. Two percent of vehicles are renewed after
90 days. While that does not sound much, it significantly increases the number of vehicles that appear
to have been scrapped and reduces the fleet size estimate.
b) Remove vehicles at end of licence, if not renewed within 180 days
The lapsing process takes a year before removing a vehicle. Waiting that long would give a definitive
answer as to whether a vehicle was ever relicensed, but reporting would be delayed for a year.
Another approach is to consider a vehicle to have left the fleet on the date its licence expires, but to wait
180 days before removing the vehicle from the fleet. Waiting 180 days reduces the number of vehicles
left out of the reported fleet which are eventually relicensed.
63% of vehicles are licensed on time. This graph shows the percentage of the remaining vehicles that
are eventually relicenced within the periods shown. The change from 98% in 90 days to 99.34% in 180
days makes that approach perform far better than the 90 day option. Waiting longer before reporting
would only improve reporting a little.
Vehicles relicenced late
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
Within 26 days
Within 51 days
Within 140 days
Within 180 days
Within 90 days
What is the effect of this approach on travel estimation?
If we use the 180 day removal process, a vehicle that should have been relicensed at the end of April
2014 would be regarded as having left the fleet in April, if it was not relicensed by October 2014. This
would reduce the vehicle’s contribution to 2014 travel from being in the fleet for the entire year (if
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The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
removing the vehicle using the administrative method in 2015) to only being in the fleet from JanuaryApril 2014.
Comparison of methods
The estimated fleet size, fleet age and total road travel from using the Ministry’s old WoF based
method, the administrative approach, and the 180 day alternative method are shown below. Vehicles
exempt from licensing (not used on the roads) are excluded.
Travel
The 180 day approach produces the estimates very similar to the traffic counting project, and the
WoF approach produces the next best estimates. The administrative approach based estimates are
too high.
Fleet size and light fleet average age
The 180 day approach and the administrative method produce similar estimates. The 180 day based
estimates are a little lower as some defunct vehicles are removed sooner.
Fleet travel (billion km)
44
42
40
38
36
34
32
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
WoF method
180 day method
2010
2012
Administrative method
Traffic counts
Fleet size
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
2000
2002
WoF method
2004
2006
2008
Administrative method
63
2010
2012
180 day method
The New Zealand Vehicle Fleet
Light fleet average age
16
14
12
10
8
6
2000
2002
WoF method
2004
2006
2008
Administrative method
2010
2012
180 day method
Preferred approach
The 180 day approach produces the best travel estimates, and is the best compromise between
reporting quality and reporting delay. It is now the basis of fleet reporting.
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