polling
Name: __________________
September 16, 2016
polling
references:
- Literary Digest, Wikipedia
- opinion poll, Wikipedia
- Literary Digest Poll, Prof. Dennis DeTurk, Dean of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania
- 1935: The poll that took America’s pulse
The 1936 Literary Digest Poll
In the 1936 presidential election, the Republican candidate, Governor Alfred Landon of Kansas, ran against
the Democratic candidate and incumbent president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. A popular magazine of the
time, The Literary Digest, conducted the largest poll ever taken of such an event, and it failed spectacularly.
The Literary Digest poll became known as the poll that changed polling.
Who did the Literary Digest include in its poll?
How many people were included in the Literary Digest poll?
If a poll is biased, can its results be improved by polling more people?
Who did the Literary Digest predict would be elected?
Hint: “Landon in a landslide!”
Who won the election? Which states voted for Landon? Which states voted for Roosevelt?
Hint: “As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”
What sorts of bias were present in the Literary Digest poll? Explain the source of each type of bias you
include.
Hint: Possibilities include nonresponse bias, response bias, wording of questions, and coverage (or selection)
bias.
Afterward: Gallup, who was just getting started in those days, correctly predicted the outcome of the election
and also the outcome of the Literary Digest poll.
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